The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Stars, December 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head out on the road for what will be their longest absence from Capital One Arena this season to date when they open a four-game road trip against the Dallas Stars in Big D on Tuesday night.  The Caps have alternated wins and losses in their last four road contests, all of the decisions of a multi-goal variety, losing a 6-2 decision to the Colorado Avalanche and a 3-1 decision to the New York Islanders, while defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-2, and the Boston Bruins, 5-3, in what was their last road game last Thursday.  Overall, the Caps bring a three-game winning streak into this contest and are winners of seven of their last eight contests, taking over the top spot in the Metropolitan Division through games on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Stars are returning home after a 2-1-1 road trip.  On home ice, though, they have been slipping.  Dallas has allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games at American Airlines Center, and while they have split those four games, they allowed five goals in each of their last two home games, both of them losses.

Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are tied for the team lead in overall scoring at 29 points apiece.  It is hardly unfamiliar territory for either of them.  Seguin has recorded more than 70 points in each of the last four seasons before this one, averaging 33 goals and 43 assists.  He is on a pace to finish 34-36-70 this season.  He has been productive and consistent, one of only five players over the four seasons preceding this one to record at least 120 goals and 160 assists (Seguin has 133 goals and 173 assists over that span). He has been especially productive at home this season, where he is 9-8-17, plus-7, in 14 home games compared to 5-7-12, minus-11, in 20 road contests.  In 19 career games against the Caps, Seguin is 8-5-13, plus-5.

That group of five players over the four seasons preceding this one to record at least 120 goals and 160 assists also includes Jamie Benn, who has 136 goals and 188 assists over that same span.  Benn, the Art Ross Trophy winner as the league’s top point-getter in 2014-2015, is one of only three players to top 80 points at least twice over the last four seasons, doing it in 2014-2015 (35-52-87) and in 2015-2016 (41-48-89).  Patrick Kane (twice) and Sidney Crosby (four times) are the others to top 80 points in at least two of the last four seasons.  He has been a bit more consistent in his home/road splits than has Seguin so far this season, at least of a per game basis.  Benn is 5-6-11, plus-2, in 14 home games, and he is 8-10-18, minus-1, in 20 road games so far this season.  He is 4-7-11, plus-10, in 11 career games against the Caps.

Since the beginning of the 2014-2015 season, three defensemen have posted more than 30 goals, more than 120 assists, more than 150 points, and are better than plus-30.  That group includes Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty, Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman, and Dallas’ John Klingberg (if you are wondering, Erik Karlsson would be in that group but for his “even” plus-minus rating).  Klingberg might be the best offensive defenseman no one, or at least among casual hockey fans, has heard of.  He has been a very effective power play quarterback in his four seasons with the Stars, going 9-50-59 on the man advantage, 14^th in power play points among defensemen over the past four seasons.  The odd thing this season for Klingberg, though, is that he does not have a power play assist – a power play point – since Game 15 on November 6^th in a 4-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets.  In five career games against the Caps, Klingberg is 0-5-5, plus-1.

1.  Dallas has a couple of well-known names in net in Ben Bishop and Kari Lehtonen, but their performance could use some improvement.  Bishop ranks 26^th among 49 goalies with at least 500 minutes in goals against average (2.71) and 28^th in save percentage (.910).  Lehtonen ranks 15^th in GAA (2.59) and 32^nd in save percentage (.907) in that group.

2.  It should be no surprise to anyone who has followed the career of head coach Ken Hitchcock that the Stars are stingy allowing shots on goal.  The 29.6 shots on goal allowed per game is second-fewest in the league (Carolina: 29.5).  This is what Hitchcock-coached teams do.

3.  The Stars do shoot themselves in the foot sometimes by wandering outside the rules.  They have been charged with 152 penalties through games on Sunday, third-most in the league.  Only five teams have found themselves shorthanded more often than the Stars (123 times).

4.  On the other side, Dallas has had only 101 power play opportunities so far this season.  Only five teams have had fewer, and four of them have played fewer games.  Only Edmonton has had fewer power play chances at home (45) than Dallas (48).

5.  Dallas is a very good, very consistent possession team.  They are one of four teams in the league whose shot attempts-for percentage is 50 percent or better in five different situation categories: overall (52.84), ahead (50.00), behind (55.97), tied (52.89), and close (52.85).  Calgary, Boston, and St. Louis are the other teams who fit that description.

1.  If Dallas has a problem playing inside the boundaries of the rule book, so do the Caps.  They are tied for fourth in total penalties taken (151, one behind Dallas), and their 10:45 in penalty minutes per game is fourth-most in the league. The Caps’ 13:48 per game in penalty minutes in road games is second-most in the league (Nashville has 17:25 per game).

2.  The Caps are going to want to turn around their fortunes on special teams.  They are 1-for-11 on the man advantage over their last five games (9.1 percent), lack of opportunity and efficiency being the problems.  They have allowed three goals on their last six shorthanded situations over their last two games.

3.  If Dallas is stingy with shots, the Caps are successful when being the victim of stinginess, their 12 wins when being out-shot in games topped by only four other teams: Minnesota (13), Nashville (14), New Jersey (14), and Toronto (15).

4.  The win over Anaheim when trailing after two periods on Saturday night was the second time this season that the Caps won a game when trailing after two periods.  The other time was Opening Night, when they trailed the Ottawa Senators, 2-1, entering the third period.  They won, 5-4, in a Gimmick.  Still, their 2-10-0 record when trailing after 40 minutes ranks tied for 11^th in winning percentage (.167).  Coming back in third periods is hard; Vegas has the best winning percentage in such games at just .400 (4-5-1).

5.  The Caps do have some talent in coming back when scored on first, though.  Their .412 winning percentage in such games (7-10-0) is tied for fifth-best in the league.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Alex Radulov

Alex Radulov is one of the more interesting stories in the NHL.  A 15th overall draft pick in 2004 by the Nashville Predators, he spent parts of three stormy years with the Preds, scoring 47 goals in 154 games.  “Parts” of three seasons fits, because he played only nine games of that third season, in 2011-2012.  And that was just the end of it. In 2008 he was suspended by the Preds without pay after signing a contract with Salavat Yulalev Ufa of the KHL with one year remaining on his entry level contract.  He returned to Nashville after the 2011-2012 KHL season and skated with the Predators for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs.  However, in the postseason he would be suspended by the club again (with teammate Andrei Kostitsyn) for violating a team curfew.  That would mark the end with the Predators, who did not re-sign Radulov at the end of the season.

He departed once more for the KHL, signing with CSKA Moscow, but after four seasons there returned to the NHL as a free agent with the Montreal Canadiens last season, with whom he went 18-36-54 in 76 games.  Again a free agent, he signed with Dallas last July, and he has been a very productive player for the Stars.  Radulov is third on the club in goals (11), tied for second in assists (16), and is tied for third in points.  He has goals in two of his last three games after going four games without a point.  In four career games against the Caps, Radulov is 1-1-2, minus-2.

Washington: John Carlson

Above, we noted that John Klingberg was one of three defensemen who over the past four seasons posted more than 30 goals, more than 120 assists, more than 150 points, and are better than plus-30.  If we had just said “at least plus-30,” the group would have included John Carlson, who also has 32 goals, 124 assists, and 156 points over that span to make it a foursome.  With a 3-22-25 scoring line so far this season, Carlson is on a pace that would give him his first career 60-point season (he had 55 points in 2014-2015).  And he has been able to achieve this while struggling a bit shooting the puck.  He has three goals on 99 shots so far this season, his 3.0 shooting percentage a career low at the moment. 

Carlson’s points have mattered this season, the Caps going 15-4-1 in games in which he recorded a point, 6-8-0 when he did not.  Washington has three wins in the three games in which Carlson had a goal, but all of those games were on home ice.  It is part of a distinct home/road split in his production, going 3-12-15, plus-6, in 19 home games while going 0-10-10, minus-10, in 15 road games.  In ten career games against the Stars, Carlson is 1-2-3, minus-6.

In the end…

Maybe it’s an aversion to brisket or perhaps Stetson hats, but Dallas does not agree with the Capitals.  Since the Minnesota North Stars moved to Texas in in 1993-1994 season, the Caps are 4-12-1 in 17 games in the Lone Star State.  They have not beaten the Stars in regulation on their ice since they took a 4-3 decision on October 17, 1995.  That remains the only time that the Caps beat Dallas in Texas in regulation time in this “rivalry.”  If there is a silver lining in this cloud, it is that the Caps took a 4-3 overtime decision in their last visit to Dallas, last January 21^st, coming back from a 3-1 third period deficit to force overtime before Jay Beagle won it just 19 seconds into the extra frame. 

OK, so law of averages, regression to the mean, change of fortune, dumb luck.  The history has to take a new road sometime.  Why not start now?

Capitals 3 – Stars 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 11

If there is something to be said for it being less how you start and more how you finish that defines success, then Week 11 was a successful week for the Washington Capitals.  After a sluggish performance to open the week, the Caps peeled off three wins to close the week, including a thrilling come-from-behind overtime win over the Anaheim Ducks to win the week and finish at the top of the Metropolitan Division.

Record: 3-1-0

Last season, when the Capitals won the Presidents Trophy with the league’s top regular season record for the second consecutive time, they were 20-9-5 with 45 points after 34 games.  When the lights were turned off at the end of Week 11, the Caps had a 21-12-1 record through 34 games, their 43 points only two behind last season’s pace.  And keep in mind that this season’s team has had to contend with injuries to critical personnel, having lost Andre Burakovsky for 20 games, Matt Niskanen for 13 games,  and T.J. Oshie for six games (and counting).

The Caps are getting healthy again, and it is starting to show.  They did have to scramble to escape with an overtime win on Saturday night to end the week, but they also had a pair of multi-goal wins that gave them multi-goal margins in their last five victories until Saturday.  They also extended their streak of non-losing weeks to eight, posting a record of 17-8-0 over that span.

Offense: 3.50 /game (season: 3.12 /game, rank: 9th)

That the Caps would score only a single goal against the New York Islanders to open the week was definitely out of recent character for this team.  Not only was it odd, coming against a team that finished the week 30^th in the league in scoring defense, but it would be by the end of the week the only game in the Caps’ last eight games that they scored fewer than three goals, and they scored four or more in six of those other seven contests.

This week, the keyword was “balance.”  Scoring 14 goals was welcome, but the Caps spread it around, too.  Ten different skaters recorded a goal, four of them potting a pair each (Alex Ovechkin, Alex Chiasson, Jakub Vrana, and Nicklas Backstrom).  Sixteen different skaters recorded at least one point, led by Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-4-5).

In a way, the stars drove the week.  In addition to Kuznetsov’s leading the team in points for the week, Ovechkin finished the week with a flourish, an overtime game winning goal in the 3-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks, and he finished Week 11 tied for the top spot in the league in goal scoring (23) with Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov.  Backstrom appears to have shaken off that 21-game goal scoring drought.  The pair of goals he recorded for the week made it four goals in six games, all of them in wins.  It might have been a reflection of shooting the puck with more authority, Backstrom finishing the week with ten shots on goal, second to Ovechkin (16), although half of them came against the Ducks to end the week.

The Caps also got offense from the defense.  John Carlson and Matt Niskanen each finished the week 1-2-3.  It was part of a week in which five of the six defensemen to dress recorded points (only Brooks Orpik did not).

Defense: 2.50 / game (season: 2.88 /game, rank: T-16th)

Allowing two and a half goals a game is not bad when you consider that only four teams in the league finished the week with a better scoring defense for the season.  But there might have been a bit of uneasiness about taking the foot off the pedal late in the middle games of the week.  That there is even a term “score effects” in the analytical lexicon of hockey suggests this is hardly a Caps problem, but that Caps did allow three goals in the last five minutes of regulation in those two games after taking what looked like comfortable leads against the Colorado Avalanche and Boston Bruins.

The challenge continues to be shot attempts.  The Caps were 48.25 percent in shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 for the week, 20^th in the league.  They were worse when ahead, finishing 24^th of 28 teams with a 41.80 percent mark (three teams did not hold a lead in Week 11).  That overall number was marginally better than the Caps’ shot attempts-for percentage for the season (47.98), but they are still finding it difficult to climb out of the bottom third in the league in that statistic.  In that respect, one wonders if the recent success is like a “bubble” that will burst at an inopportune time.

Goaltending: 2.52 / .917 (season: 2.73 / .917)

It was an interesting week between the pipes for the Caps.  Week 11 opened with Braden Holtby being more or less left on an unprotected island against the New York Islanders, and he gave up three goals on 12 shots in 21:34 before being relieved by Philipp Grubauer.  In relief, Grubauer stopped all 17 shots he faced and continued his slow, but steady climb out of early season struggles.  He finished the week with a save percentage of .899.  When you consider that his save percentage after four appearances was .850 and that his save percentage since is .930 in seven appearances, one would have to think he is rounding into form nicely.  It would be that much better without that six-goal stinker against Colorado in there, which is as many goals as he allowed in the other six of his last seven appearances.

As for Holtby, a bad performance never seems to carry over with him.  He got the call in the last three games of the week, winning all of them and going 2.32/.923.  He still has some work to do to climb into the top of the league’s goaltending rankings, though, finishing the week 20^th in goals against average (2.63) and 14^th in save percentage (.919; minimum: 500 minutes).  He also has one of the more curious facts attached to his record to date.  No goaltender in the league has played as many minutes as Holtby so far this season (1,485; tenth in the league) without a shutout.

Power Play: 1-for-7 / 14.3 percent (season: 20.8 percent, rank: 7th)

Week 11 was about opportunities, or the lack of them.  Seven chances in four games was the fewest the Caps had, on a per-game basis, since they had just three power play opportunities in two games in Week 4.  In three games win which the Caps had two or fewer man advantages (two against the Islanders, one against Colorado, and none against Anaheim) the Caps had no goals and only three shots on goal (all against the Islanders).  In a more conventional four opportunities against Boston, the Caps recorded their only power play goal for the week (Nicklas Backstrom) and had four shots on goal. 

As it was, the Caps were 1-for-7 in power plays and 1-for-7 in shooting (both 14.3 percent) in 10:35 of power play ice time.  Only four Caps recorded a power play shot on goal, Ovechkin leading with three.  Backstrom had two, and John Carlson and Evgeny Kuznetsov had one apiece.  When the Caps failed to get any power play chances against Anaheim to end the week, it marked the first time this season that the Caps did not enjoy a power play on home ice, the first time it happened since they were blanked on chances on home ice in a 6-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks last January 13^th.

Penalty Killing: 10-for-13 / 76.9 percent (season: 79.2 percent, rank: T-22nd)

The Caps entered the week on a penalty killing roll, but by the end of the week the wheels were wobbling.  Washington was a perfect 10-for-10 over Weeks 9 and 10, and they shutout the Islanders and Avalanche on four chances to open Week 11.  They kept the Bruins off the board in Boston on their first power play chance in the third game of the week.  However, starting with Patrice Bergeron’s power play strike 4:22 into the second period of the Caps’  5-3 win, Washington was just 2-for-5 on the penalty kill to end the week.

It was an unfortunate end to the week for the penalty killers after coming up with a superb performance against Colorado.  In 6:25 of shorthanded ice time covering four power plays, the Caps did not allow an Avalanche shot on goal (oddly, neither team recorded a power play shot on goal in that game).  Overall, the Caps were, on balance, efficient, allowing only 14 shots on goal in 19:04 of shorthanded ice time.  But that number was influenced by the performance against Colorado.

Faceoffs: 106-for-220 / 48.2 percent (season: 51.8 percent, rank: 7th)

Some weeks are better than others, and then again, some are not.  Week 11 was probably in the “are not” category.  The Caps started well, finishing the first two games of the week over 50 percent, but getting schooled in the circle by Boston (42.2 percent) and finishing one under 50 percent against Anaheim (24-for-49).  Overall, the lack of success extended to zone performance, the Caps under 50 percent in both the offensive (46.2 percent) and defensive (46.8 percent) zones for the week.

The individual performances were uneven as well.  Among the four Capitals taking at least ten draws for the week, Nicklas Backstrom (50.7 percent) and Jay Beagle (51.1 percent) were above water, while Lars Eller (47.7 percent) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (48.1 percent) took on water.  It didn’t help that everyone else was just 3-for-12 (25.0 percent).

Goals by Period:

Here was another instance of it being more how one finishes than how one starts.  For the week, the Caps held their own in the first periods of games, fighting to a 2-2 draw overall in goals.  They sagged in the second periods of games with a minus-3 goal differential, but they dominated the scoring in the third periods, outscoring their four opponents by a 9-3 margin.  Those nine goals included two third period goals against Anaheim that wiped out a 2-0 Ducks lead and allowed the Caps to scratch their way into overtime, where Alex Ovechkin ended it with his 21^st overtime game-winning goal, extending his league record.

The dominant third periods of games allowed the Caps to get into positive territory for the season in third period goal differential (plus-1).  It offset a slip in second period goal differential, where the Caps fell from minus-1 at the start of the week to minus-3 by the end.

In the end…

Week 11 presented both an opportunity and a challenge for the Caps.  Four games meant eight available points to bank in trying to climb up the standings, and getting six of those available points was welcome.  The challenge was putting wins in the bank in a week in which they would play at home twice before embarking on a four-game road trip around Christmas starting next week.  Consider that a challenge met, the Caps finishing the week on top of the Metropolitan Division, two points ahead of both New Jersey and Columbus.  Given the tightly wrapped nature of the division – eight teams were separated by eight points at week’s end – getting those wins and points was especially important before heading out on the road.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-4-5, plus-5, 5 shots on goal, 16 shot attempts, ninth career three-assist game)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-2-4, plus-5, 16 shots on goal, 29 shot attempts, 21^st career overtime GWG, two multi-point games)
• Third Star: Jakub Vrana (2-1-3, plus-3, five shots on goal, 11 shot attempts)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 34: Ducks at Capitals, December 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up a bit of an odd stretch of their schedule on Saturday night when their alternating home-road-home-road-home itinerary comes to an end as they host the Anaheim Ducks.  The Ducks will come to Washington with their own slant on an alternating schedule, having alternated wins and losses in their last four games (2-0-2).

This game pits two teams on opposite ends of a strange continuum.  The Caps are tied for the fewest losses in the league in extra time games (one), while the Ducks are tied for the most losses in such games (seven).

The Ducks have not been an especially successful team on the road, either.  They have six wins in 14 road games.  Only five teams have fewer road wins in games played through Thursday night.  Their difficulties have not been on the defensive side, where they have allowed fewer goals than all but six teams.  Their problems have been in scoring goals on the road, their 37 goals scored being more than just five other clubs, and four of those teams have played fewer road games.

What makes the Ducks’ road show even less appealing is the fact that Corey Perry – their leading goal scorer (four, tied with two teammates) and point producer (ten) on the road – is out “week to week” with an apparent knee injury suffered against the Carolina Hurricanes on December 11^th. 

Perry’s absence might mean guys like Rickard Rakell and Kevin Roy, who are tied with Perry for the team lead in road goals, need to raise their production.  Rakell has demonstrated an ability to score goals, his total jumping from nine in 71 games in 2014-2015 to 20 goals two seasons ago to 33 goals last year.  He is bit off that pace this year, though, with just eight goals in 26 games overall.  Rakell started the seasons smartly with five goals in his first ten games, but he has since cooled off, recording just three goals in his last 16 games.  He does have four goals in eight road games, so there is that.  Rakell is 1-0-1, even, in five career games against Washington.

Kevin Roy is at the other end of the experience spectrum.  He is in his rookie season with the Ducks, a former fourth-round draft pick (2012) who did not start the year with the parent club.  He was called up for the first time on November 9^th, whereupon he started slowly with one goal in his first nine games.  However, he heated up some after that, posting five goals in his last seven games, including a pair in Anaheim’s 3-1 win over St. Louis on Thursday.  He did have a history as a consistent goal scorer when he was at Northeastern University, posting seasons of 17, 19, 17, and 10 (in fewer games played) as a member of the Huskies.  This will be Roy’s first appearance against the Caps.

Brandon Montour leads the Duck defensemen in scoring on the road so far this season (3-5-8), and he leads all Duck skaters in road plus-minus (plus-9, tied for sixth-best in the league).  He does show signs of cooling down on the road, though.  He was 3-1-4 in his first four road contests this season, but he is 0-4-4 in his last eight games on the road.  It is, perhaps, part of the ups and downs that goes with being a second-year player in the NHL.  He already has eclipsed his games played total of last season (30 compared to 27 last year) and has career highs in goals-assists-points (6-10-16).  He was something of a scorer in the AHL, so his production at this level comes as less of a surprise.  He was 26-73-00 in 118 games over three seasons in the AHL with Norfolk and San Diego.  He does not have a point, but he is plus-1 in two career games against the Caps.

1.  Anaheim does have an efficient power play on the road.  Their 24.2 percent on the man advantage in road games ranks sixth in the league.  Their penalty kill is also a top-ten team on the road (83.3 percent/10^th)

2.  The Ducks have a strange record in one-goal games, winning seven and losing eight.  The thing with those eight losses is that seven of them are in extra time, only one in regulation.  Only Winnipeg has none such losses in regulation so far.  The Ducks would much rather a blowout.  Their 5-3 record in such games is tied for the seventh-best winning percentage in the league (.625).

3.  Only four teams have fewer wins this season when leading after the first period than Anaheim (5).  Florida (4), Arizona (4), Calgary (3),and Buffalo (1) are the unfortunates. 

4.  The Ducks are one of just four teams without a goal scored in overtime.  Detroit, Vancouver, and Winnipeg are the others.

5.  When the Ducks were a Stanley Cup contender a decade ago, they had the reputation of being a rambunctious team comfortable playing outside the rules.  That does not seem to have changed much.  Anaheim ranks second in penalty minutes per game (11:52), trailing only Nashville (13:56).

1.  If urgency can be reflected in possession numbers, such is the case with the Caps on home ice.  Their shot attempts-for percentage overall in home games ranks 24^th in the league (48.0 percent).  The ranking is a bit better when they are ahead in home games (45.60 percent/18^th).  However, when behind on home ice their 58.6 percent ranks fifth.

2.  Nevertheless, the Caps have done a better job lately of holding down shots on goal on home ice.  They held five of their last seven opponents at Capital One Arena under 30 shots, two of them (San  Jose and Colorado) to 25 or fewer.

3.  The Caps in recent years have had a very good power play at home.  This year’s edition could use improvement.  They rank 20^th on the man advantage on home ice (17.2 percent).  After going 4-for-13 over a three-game stretch to open the December portion of their home schedule, they are 0-for-5 in their last two home games.

4.  On the other side, the penalty killers have been almost impenetrable recently on home ice.  They are 14-for-14 over their last six games at Capital One Arena.

5.  The Caps rank third in the league in wins by three or more goals with eight.  Three of their last five wins were by three or more goals, two others by two goals.  In fact, nine of their last ten wins have been by multi-goal margins.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim: John Gibson

John Gibson has developed into a solid, if as yet unspectacular goaltender for the Anaheim Ducks in his fifth NHL system.  He has been consistent, too.  Two seasons ago he posted a .920 save percentage in 40 games.  Last year he was .924 in 52 games.  This season he is squarely in that range at .922 through 25 appearances.  The difference for Gibson so far this season compared to the previous two is that while he had goals against averages of 2.07 two years ago and 2.22 last year, he has a goals against average of 2.83 this season, 28^th of 48 goalies logging at least 500 minutes this season.  He is facing a lot more rubber.  Where he faced 28.9 shots per 60 minutes over the previous two seasons, he is facing 36.4 shots per 60 minutes so far this season.   He has already faced more than 40 shots six times this season, second-most in the league to Calgary’s Mike Smith (seven times).  In three career appearances against the Caps, Gibson is 0-2-1, 3.64, .888.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby has become perhaps the Capitals best weapon at home.  His 11 wins this season ranks second among 40 goalies with at least 250 minutes on home ice (tied with three other goalies), his goals against average ranks fifth (2.06), and his save percentage ranks second (.935).  In an odd reflection of his consistency, he is one of two goalies in the top ten in home save percentage without a shutout this season (Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray is the other).  But he has held five opponents to one goal on home ice, tied with Carey Price in the top spot.  He will be looking to tie his season high five-game winning streak on home ice.  Holtby is 2-1-0, 3.25, .878 in three career appearances against the Ducks.

In the end…

This is one of those rivalries that isn’t.  The Caps have faced the Ducks only 33 times in 24 years and hold a 16-15-1 advantage with one tie.  If anything, the Caps have been better in recent years, going 9-3-1 in their last 13 games against Anaheim dating back to November 2008.  They are teams going in somewhat different directions at the moment, the Caps one of, it not the hottest team in the league with an 8-2-0 record in their last ten games.  On the other side, Anaheim is just 4-2-4 in their last ten contests, although they have won two in a row.  They will not make it three.

Capitals 4 – Ducks 1

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 33: Capitals 5 - Bruins 3

The Washington Capitals extended their domination of the Boston Bruins to an eleventh straight game on Thursday night when they defeated the Bruins, 5-3, at TD Garden in Boston.  The 11 straight wins against the Bruins is one short of the club's longest winning streak against any single team (12 straight wins against the Tampa Bay Lightning from December 15, 2007 through December 7, 2009).  The longest unbeaten streak the Caps have against any single team in franchise history is 22 games against the New York Islanders (19 wins and three ties) from April 12, 1997 through March 30, 2002.

The teams went scoreless for the first 17 minutes, but the Caps broke through late in the first period when Jakub Vrana split the defense, skated in on goalie Anton Khudobin, and potted his 10th goal of the season at the 17:34 mark.

The teams exchanged power play goals to open the second period, the Bruins tying the score on a man advantage goal by Patrice Bergeron in the fifth minute of the period and the Caps taking the lead back on a power play eight minutes later when Nicklas Backstrom redirected an Evgeny Kuznetsov centering feed from the top of the crease.

Then it became the Alex Chiasson Show in what would be a wild third period. Chiasson opened the scoring in the frame at the 7:52 mark when he dug out a rebound from under Khudobin’s pads and stuffed it under him to give the Caps a 3-1 lead. Four minutes later, while killing a penalty, Chiasson picked up a loose puck at his own blue line and took off on a breakaway. He outraced Torey Krug the length of the ice and flipped a backhand over Khudobin’s right pad to make it 4-1, 11:31 into the period.

David Krejci cut the lead to two goals at the 16:20 mark, but Alex Ovechkin put it away two minutes later on an odd empty netter. From the right wing wall in his own end he tried to lead Tom Wilson with a cross ice pass. The puck was far out in front of Wilson though, caroming off the left wing side boards. The carom was perfect, though, as the puck slid the rest of the way and settled into the back of the net at the 18:31 mark.

Bergeron scored a window dressing goal for the Bruins with 27 seconds left, but it was far from enough as the Caps skated off with the 5-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps are now a perfect 20-0-0 against Boston in games that Nicklas Backstrom recorded a point.

-- Alex Chiasson had his first two-goal game since he recorded a pair against the Calgary Flames as a member of the Dallas Stars in a 5-1 win on October 24, 2013.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s 22nd goal of the season tied Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov for the league lead.

-- Matt NIskanen finished plus-3. He is plus-13 in his last ten games and is now tied for ninth in the league in that statistic (plus-14). With two assists, he had his first multi-point game of the season.

-- Four Caps did not record a shot attempt – Brett Connolly, Chandler Stephenson, Madison Bowey, and Devante Smith-Pelly.

-- Dmitry Orlov led the team in credited hits with five.

-- The Caps were schooled on faceoffs, Lars Eller the only player taking more than one draw finishing over 50 percent (7-for-13/53.8 percent).

-- Washington allowed the Bruins five power plays. It is the first time this season in ten games that they allowed an opponent five or more power plays and won in regulation (they have two extra time wins).

-- Boston dominated the shot attempts, finishing the game with a 74-55 edge.

-- Braden Holtby improved his career record against Boston to 13-2-0, 1.89, .942, with three shutouts.

In the end…

The Caps are 10-3-0 in their last 13 games with this win, and for the ninth time in that run posted a multi-goal win.  It has brought the Caps close enough to the Columbus Blue Jackets at the top of the Metropolitan Division to know what flavor chewing gum they are (that’s a “Hoosiers” reference…look it up).  The win over the Bruins sets up the Caps for a final home game before heading out on a four-game holiday road trip to the southwest and to Manhattan.  By the time the Caps return from that trip to host these same Boston Bruins, the standings in the Metro might look even better.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 33: Capitals at Bruins, December 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their fourth straight win on home ice – a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday night – try to break out of a road slump when they head to Boston to take on the Bruins on Thursday evening.

The Caps have lost four of their last five contests on the road and have yet to put together consecutive wins on the road this season in assembling a 6-7-1 record away from Capital One Arena. On the other side, the Bruins will bring a three-game home winning streak into this game after alternating wins and losses over their first 12 contests (6-4-2) at TD Garden.

Boston has had a very up-and-down record on defense at home this season. They allowed three or more goals in each of their first four home games this season, followed that up with allowing two or fewer in three straight, then allowed three or more in five consecutive games before clamping down in their three-game winning streak at home, allowing just four goals in all.

That brings us to goaltender Tuukka Rask, who has not been an especially consistent or efficient netminder at home, even if he has been “effective” as measured in his goals against average. Among 38 goalies logging at least 250 minutes on home ice through Tuesday’s games, Rask ranks just 22nd in save percentage (.915). He suffered from inconsistent performances at home over his first eight appearances at TD Garden this season, going 3-4-1, 2.62, .906 and failing to win consecutive decisions. He might be righting himself, at least on home ice, having gone 3-0-0, 1.33, .945 in his last three appearances at TD Garden. In 17 career appearances against the Caps, Rask is 1-10-5, 3.07, .889, with one shutout.

Given that this game will be the second of a back-to-back set for the Bruins (they play in Detroit against the Red Wings on Wednesday night), it could be Anton Khudobin getting the call. Khudobin has had numbers somewhat similar to Rask (a .922 save percentage overall to .912 for Rask, a 2.53 GAA to 2.43 for Rask), but he has skated in better luck with a 7-1-2 record in 11 appearances. And that loss in regulation only came in his last appearance when he allowed four goals on 14 shots in 24 minutes of work in a 5-3 loss to the Nashville Predators on December 4th. His luck appears to be especially evident on home ice, where he is 3-0-1, 2.97, .906, three of his appearances ending with save percentages under .900. In eight career appearances against the Caps, Khudobin is 4-3-1, 2.59, .919, with one shutout.

David Pastrnak has done the most damage at the offensive end at TD Garden so far this season, leading the team in home goals (eight) and points (14). He has points in each of his last five home contests (2-4-6, plus-3) and in seven of his last eight games at home (4-5-9, plus-1). It is part of a larger pattern of enjoying home cooking for Pastrnak, who has 41 goals in 96 career games at home (0.43 goals per game) versus 32 goals in 103 road games (0.31 goals per game). One indicator of how well the Bruins might be doing is in his ice time. Boston is just 2-4-1 in seven games in which he skated more than 20 minutes this season, but they have not lost when he logged less than 17 minutes (6-0-0). Pastrnak is 3-3-6, minus-4, in seven career games against Washington.

1.  Boston is very stingy about letting teams get shot attempts. They have allowed the fewest shot attempts at 5-on-5 in the league (1,133/42.0 per game).

2.  Only the New York Islanders have fewer losses in regulation when scoring first in games (none) than Boston (one, tied with three other teams through Tuesday’s games).

3.  Three teams in the NHL have not yet won a game (through Tuesday) when trailing after two periods. Boston is one of them. Nashville and Dallas are the others. That might seem odd since they have 49 wins among them.

4.  No team has more major penalties on home ice this season than the Bruins (eight).

5.  Boston is one of two teams in the league to have scored and allowed fewer than 30 goals this season in all of the three regulation periods of games (San Jose is the other).

1.  Washington has the second best goal differential in the first periods of games in the league at plus-9 (Winnipeg is plus-11).

2.  The Caps have the second-best road power play in the league (26.3 percent), trailing only Pittsburgh (31.4 percent). If only they had more chances; they rank 25th in power play opportunities on the road (38).

3.  The Caps have four players in double digits in points in road games this season – Alex Ovechkin (15), T.J. Oshie (15), Evgeny Kuznetsov (14), and Nicklas Backstrom (12). John Carlson could join that group with a point in this game.

4.  Speaking of Carlson, he and Brooks Orpik share a number they would probably not like to own on their own, let alone share. Both are minus-12 on the road, tied for sixth-worst among 748 skaters through Tuesday’s games.

5.  Washington has more wins when leading after one period (13) than any team in the league. Only two teams have more wins when leading after two period than the Caps (14) – St. Louis (17) and Tampa Bay (15). Intermissions matter, it would seem.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand, villain and despised player in 30 NHL cities, is closing in on a personal milestone. He is three points shy of 400 for his career, which is about the number of slashes and spears he has (seemingly) gotten away with over his nine-year career in Boston. Which brings us to another milestone. With 536 career penalty minutes (you can be forgiven if you thought it was more), he is seven short of tying Gord Kluzak for 34th place on the all-time Bruins ranking (you can also be forgiven if you thought he was ranked higher). Within the rules, Marchand set a personal best of 39 goals last season, and he would be on a pace to shatter that this season (he has 11 in 19 games, a 47 goal pace over 82 games) but for missing eight games to injury. It matters, since Boston has lost just once in regulation in the ten games in which he scored a goal this season (6-1-3). He also has points in 15 of the 19 games in which he has dressed. In 24 career games against the Caps, Marchand is 7-8-15, minus-5.

Washington: Brett Connolly

When Brett Connolly takes the ice on Thursday night, he will do so for the 300th time in his NHL career. You might not think this especially noteworthy (he will tie Barry Melrose for 2,297th place on the all-time games played list, and he will be the 455th active player to reach that mark, according to hockey-reference.com), but he will reach that mark not having yet reached his 26th birthday (next May). He has a long way to go to add to that total. In the here and now, Connolly has overcome a slow start (a goal on Opening Night, then crickets for 11 games and only two goals in his first 17 contests) to record four goals in his last six games. The amazing part of that is that he did it while recording only seven shots on goal. In another odd fact concerning this game, it will be just his second road contest getting a sweater cine November 16th. Shots on goal in road games has been a rarity for Connolly as well, his having recorded just six shots on goal in nine road contests so far, three of them in a 4-3 overtime loss to Tampa Bay last October 9th. Connolly, who spent the 2015-2016 season with Boston, going 9-16-25 in 71 games, is 1-1-2, minus-2, in six career games against the Bruins.

In the end…

The Capitals must like chowder. They have a five-game winning streak in Beantown, are 8-2-0 in their last ten visits to Boston, and they are 11-4-0 in their last 15 trips to New England since February 2009. It could be a tonic for what ails the Caps on the road at the moment, a team that has suffered four losses in their last five road contests, all by multi-goal margins. They catch Boston turning things around in their own rink, but you know how this ends.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 32: Capitals 5 - Avalanche 2

The Washington Capitals bounced back from their 3-1 loss to the New York Islanders on Monday night with a convincing 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday night. 

First Period

It did not take the Capitals too long to open the scoring, Jakub Vrana doing the honors.  Taking a feed from Evgeny Kuznetsov as he was skating through the left wing circle, he snapped a shot that hit goalie Semyon Varlamov in the shoulder and snuck under the crossbar on the short side at the 5:25 mark.

It would be all the scoring in the first period.  The only penalty of the frame was charged to the Caps at the 20-minute mark, John Carlson getting the gate for tripping Gabriel Landeskog after he lost the puck in the defensive zone.  The teams spit 14 shots down the middle, while the Caps enjoyed an 18-15 edge in shot attempts.  Jay Beagle was the only player on either team with more than one shot on goal (two).  Matt Niskanen was the only player on either club with more than one of his attempts blocked (three).

Second Period

Colorado tied the score in the fifth minute of the period on a broken play.  Matt Nieto controlled the puck behind the Capitals’ net and tried to feed it out to Blake Comeau at the doorstep.  Matt Niskanen got enough of his stick to keep him from getting a shot off, and the puck slid through to Colin Wilson, who had just jumped off the bench and was filling in on the weak side.  Wilson chipped a backhand past goalie Braden Holtby at 4:13, and the game was tied.

The Caps regained the lead late in the period when Varlamov made an error.  Tom Wilson tried to send a pass across the ice from the right side, but it was muffled and settled at Varlamov’s pads, but he could not control the puck.  An attempted clear by Tyson Barrie up the middle was picked off by John Carlson, who leaned into a shot that sailed past Varlamov’s glove and into the back of the net to give the Caps a 2-1 lead at the 17:42 mark, a lead they took into the second intermission.

Colorado had three power plays in the period, failing on the first two while the third carried over into the third period.  The Caps were still waiting on their first power play of the evening.  The Caps had a 10-7 advantage in shots on goal for the period and had a 17-16 edge in shot attempts overall, despite spending 5:08 killing penalties.

Third Period

Washington took a two-goal lead 5:15 into the third period on a delayed penalty.  With the Caps having a sixth attacker on the ice until the next whistle, Madison Bowey had the puck in the right wing circle when he looked off Varlamov and fed Brett Connolly in the left wing circle for a one-timer that beat Varlamov before he could scramble across the paint.

With the teams skating four-a-side late in the period, the Caps put an end to the suspense.  Off a Colorado turnover in their own zone, Kuznetsov ended up with the puck on his stick and skated in to Varlamov’s left.  Just out of the goalie’s reach, Kuznetsov wrapped a pass around his body and out to Matt Niskanen trailing on the play.  Niskanen wasted no time planting the puck behind Varlamov to make it 4-1 at the 16:19 mark.

Colorado scored with 1:03 left on a shot by Tyson Jost on a shot just under the crossbar, but the Caps answered with an empty net goal by Devante Smith-Pelly with 45 seconds left for the final 5-2 margin.

Other stuff…

-- Madison Bowey broke a 13-game streak without a point with a pair of assists, his second career multi-point game and first since he had a pair of assists against the Edmonton Oilers back on October 28^th in a 5-2 win.

-- Brett Connolly’s goal was his fourth in December on just seven shots on goal (57.1 percent shooting).

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had three assists, his ninth multi-point game of the season.

-- Andre Burakovsky had an assist on the Caps’ fourth goal, his 100^th point in the NHL.  He became the 77^th player in team history to hit the 100-point mark with the club.

-- The Caps won for the 13^th time on home ice this season to tie the Tampa Bay Lightning once more for the league lead.

-- It isn’t often that a center leads the Caps in shots on goal, and if they do, one might think it would be Nicklas Backstrom.  Rarely will it be Jay Beagle, but he was the leader with four shots on goal.

-- The Caps held the Avalanche to 24 shots on goal, the second-fewest allowed this season on home ice.  Washington allowed the Florida Panthers 23 shots in a 4-1 loss on October 21^st.

-- John Carlson wins the all-you-can-eat buffet coupon for this one.  He had a goal, finished plus-2, took two minor penalties, had two shots on goal, seven shot attempts, two takeaways, and three blocked shots.

-- The defense contributed two goals (Matt Niskanen, Carlson) and two assists (Bowey).

-- Braden Holtby shook off what was his shortest stint of the season last night (21:34) to post the win.  In three games following those in which he was pulled early, he is 3-0-0, 1.67, .947.

In the end…

A solid win, giving the Caps an 12-2-0 record in their last 14 games on home ice.  It was another shared effort with five goals scored by five different players an ten players sharing in the points.  The Caps played a bit dangerously in allowing Colorado four power plays, but in one of their most dominating efforts of the season did not allow the Avalanche a power play shot on goal in 6:25 of shorthanded ice time.  It was not flashy, just a solid, all-around effort of the sort the Caps can build on as they take their show on the road to Boston on Thursday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Capitals at Islanders, December 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It has been almost two months since the Washington Capitals played consecutive games against Metropolitan Division rivals.  That streak will end on Monday night when, following up on their 4-2 win over the New York Rangers on Friday night, the Caps will visit Brooklyn to take on the New York Islanders.

The last – the only – time that the Caps faced division rivals in consecutive games, they beat the New Jersey Devils, 5-2, in Newark on October 13^th before dropping an 8-2 decision to the Philadelphia Flyers in South Philly the following night.

The Islanders come into this game losers of three straight (0-2-1) and coming home after what must seem a disappointing four-game road trip (their only win coming in a Gimmick in Florida against the Panthers to open the trip).

Home is a different story, altogether.  No team has played fewer games so far this season on home ice than the Isles (11), but they have made it count when they did, posting a home record of 8-1-2.  They did not suffer a loss in regulation time until dropping a 6-5 decision to the Ottawa Senators in their last contest on home ice, back on December 1^st. 

That they have been successful in their limited home ice opportunities is a reflection of their offense, which has 51 goals in those 11 games (4.64 per game), and that starts with John Tavares, who is 9-9-18 in the 11 home games, the team leader in both goals and points at Barclays Center.  Tavares, who is one of the real bargains in the league with a $5.5 million cap hit, is in the last year of a six-year deal.  Overall this season, he overcame a sluggish start, one in which he was 2-1-3 in his first seven games (all of those points recorded in a 6-3 win in the Islanders’ home opener) to go 15-13-28, plus-4, in his last 22 games.  Over that span he is tied for the league lead in goals (with Las Vegas’ William Karlsson) and tied for fourth in points.  In 31 career games against the Caps, Tavares is 13-15-28, plus-6.

Over that same span over which Tavares has been among the hottest scorers in the league, Anders Lee has 14 goals of his own, third in the league over that span.  Lee had something of a breakout season in 2016-2017, posting 34 goals, tied for tenth in the league.  He might also be shaking off the last of the inconsistency in his game, his goals having swung from 25 in 76 games in 2014-2015 to 15 in 80 games of the 2015-2016 season to that 34-goal total last year.  This season he has 17 goals in 29 games, tied for third in the league overall.  Six of those goals have come on home ice, second on the club, while his 14 points at Barclays Center ranks third with the Islanders this season.  Lee is 7-2-9, plus-1, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Through Saturday’s games, 43 goaltenders logged at least 500 minutes in ice time this season.  Jaroslav Halak ranked 27 in that group in goals against average (2.93) and 30^th in save percentage (.905).  And he was the better of the two Islander goalies in that group, Thomas Greiss ranking 42^nd in goals against average (3.78) and 39^th in save percentage (.890).  Halak’s success, such as it has been this season, has been entirely a product of support on the offensive side of the ledger.  He opened the season with a 5-2-0 record in his first eight appearances this season, with a goals against average of 2.66 and a save percentage of .916.  Decent, if somewhat middle of the road numbers on his own behalf.  But in his last nine appearances he is 3-5-1, 3.17, .896.  He is 8-8-0, 2.75, .902, with one shutout, in 16 career appearances against the Capitals.

1.  If you are going to beat the Islanders, chances are it won’t be a blowout.  Only two teams have had fewer losses by three or more goals than the Islanders (3) this season – Tampa Bay with two and Los Angeles with one.

2.  Score first, and win.  The Islanders are the only team in the league with a perfect record when scoring first in games (10-0-0).

3.  The Islanders are among the least penalized teams in the league, one of only seven teams averaging less than eight minutes in penalties per game (7:57).

4.  The Islanders are the second most efficient team shooting the puck this season, scoring goals on 11.43 percent of their shots so far.  Only Tampa Bay has been better (11.68 percent).

5.  Home cooking has done little for the Islanders penalty killers.  They have the fourth-worst penalty kill on home ice this season (73.7 percent).

1.  Odd as it is, the Capitals have played only seven games against Metropolitan Division teams so far this season.  Only nine teams have had fewer meetings against teams in the Metro through Saturday’s games.  Stranger still, perhaps, three of those teams are Metropolitan Division teams themselves, the Pittsburgh Penguins (6), the New Jersey Devils (5), and the Philadelphia Flyers (4).

2.  Washington is going to have to ramp up its effort on the penalty kill against Metropolitan Division teams.  In seven games they are just 16-for-23 killing penalties against teams in the Metro (69.6 percent).  If there is a silver lining in this game, the Islanders are worse (13-for-20/65.0 percent).

3.  The Caps have the second-best road power play in the league at 27.8 percent.  Only Pittsburgh is better (31.4 percent).

4.  Washington is also an efficient team shooting the puck on the road, fourth in the league with a 10.6 percent shooting percentage in road games.

5.  The Capitals could use improvement in their road possession numbers.  They have the fifth-lowest shot attempts-for percentage in the league in close situations in road games (46.29 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Nick Leddy

Nick Leddy has quietly assembled a rather impressive body of work as an NHL defenseman.  Ove eight seasons, four with the Chicago Blackhawks and now in his fourth season with the Islanders, he has steadily improved his offensive numbers from the blue line.  His point totals have increased in each of the last four seasons, and he is on a pace to do so again for a fifth consecutive season.  Through Saturday’s games, Leddy’s 24 points (6-18-24) ranks second among league defensemen, topped only by Dallas’ John Klingberg (25).  He has been hot lately, going 3-11-14 in his last 13 games with points in ten of those contests.  Leddy is 1-5-6, minus-2, in 18 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Brooks Orpik

Brooks Orpik has one of the most bizarre statistics in the league since the 2005-2006 season.  In that time, only four players have had more games in which they registered a point without recording a shot on goal.  Orpik has done that 65 times in that span, a number exceeded only by Henrik Sedin (120), Joe Thornton (111), Mike Ribeiro (91), and Bryan Campbell (78).  He has done it 15 times as a member of the Caps, more than any Capital in his four years with the club except for Nicklas Backstrom (22 times), Tom Wilson (20), and Karl Alzner (16).  He leads the club in such instances this season, having recorded a point in five games in which he did not have a shot on goal.  His ice time has made a difference this season as well, the Caps having a 10-2-1 record in games in which he recorded more than 22 minutes of ice time, although he is just 0-2-2, plus-2 in those games.  In 37 career games against the Islanders, Orpik is 0-7-7, minus-9.

In the end…

The Caps have had reasonable success as guest of the Islanders in recent years, although not without effort.  Since 2005-2006, Washington is 13-8-3 in 24 games on the road against the Isles, but seven of those 13 wins have come in extra time.  The Caps have done well to avoid having to resort to extra time to settle outcomes this season, going to extra time just five times, although they do have four wins in those five instances.  So, will the Caps, who have gone to extra time ten times in their last 19 visits to Long Island, need extra time to subdue the Isles?  Given New York’s iffy goaltending and the Caps’ recent success on offense – four straight games with four or more goals – we’re thinking it will not be necessary.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 10

For the Washington Capitals, Week 10 was the best week of the year, a perfect 3-0-0 week that represented their first unbeaten week since going 2-0-0 in Week 1.  They scored early, scored late, beat teams from three different time zones, and  did it all in multi-goal wins.  If you were to draw it up at the beginning of the week, it would have looked a lot like this.

Record: 3-0-0

When Week 10 started, the Caps sat in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division, four points behind the first place Columbus Blue Jackets and one point ahead of the sixth place New York Rangers.  At week’s end, despite a perfect week, they made up two points on first place, finishing the week in second place, two points behind the Blue Jackets.  The win over the Rangers to end the week left the Caps with a 5-2-0 record against teams in the Metropolitan Division through Week 10.

The 3-0-0 week was the first in which they posted as many wins without a loss, either in regulation or extra time, since they posted four wins without a loss in Week 26 (the last full week of the regular season), last year.  The three wins extended the Caps’ winning streak to four games, all of the wins by multi-goal margins.  It is the last time that the Caps recorded four straight wins by more than one goal since they recorded that achievement in Games 53-56 last season, all of them at home, as they did in this instance.

Offense: 4.67 /game (season: 3.06 /game, rank: T-10th)

The Caps had 14 goals spread among nine players in Week 10, led by Tom Wilson with three in the three games.  Wilson had a career week with points in all three games, one of them a four-point effort against the Chicago Blackhawks (2-2-4), his first such game in the NHL.  Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Brett Connolly each had two-goal weeks that were noteworthy for each. 

For Ovechkin, the two goals gave him 21 for the season and left him as the 11^th player in NHL history to record 20 or more goals in each of his first 13 NHL seasons.  He also finished the week at the top of the goal scoring rankings with 21. 

When Backstrom scored the game’s first goal in the Caps’ 6-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks in the middle game of the week, it snapped a 21-game streak without a goal for the center.  He added a goal in the Caps’ 4-2 win over the Rangers to end the week, the first time he scored goals in consecutive games since early October, the last goals he scored before his 21-game drought.

Both of Connolly’s goals came on power plays and extended his goals streak to three games before it was ended in the Caps’ 4-1 win over the New York Rangers to end the week.  It was the first time that Connolly had goals in three consecutive games since last February, when he put together a three-game goal streak against Los Angeles, Carolina, and Detroit.

Meanwhile, Jay Beagle built on a fine record when he hits the score sheet.  When he posted an assist in the win over San Jose to open the week and a goal in the Caps’ 4-2 win over the Rangers to end it, it made the Caps 76-9-7 in games in which Beagle recorded a point over his career and 38-1-5 in games in which he recorded a goal.  As for points, 13 different Caps posted points in the three games, led by Wilson and Ovechkin with seven apiece.

Defense: 1.67 / game (season: 2.93 /game, rank: 14th)

It was not a bad week on defense, given the nature of the opponents.  Chicago and San Jose were, by week’s end, among the top ten teams in the league in shots per game, the Blackhawks fifth (34.8 shots per game) and the Sharks tenth (33.0).  But where the Caps did particularly well was in shutting things down late.  They did not allow any of their three opponents as many as ten shots in the third period for the week and held those three teams to a total of 23 third period shots on goal.

Oddly, perhaps, but the week was not especially good from a shots attempts point of view.  The Caps were under 50 percent for the week in shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 (46.97 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey), and it might have been worse but for a good effort against the Rangers to end the week (54.17 percent).

Goaltending: 1.67 / .946 (season: 2.76 / .913)

It was a fine week all around for Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer in combining for the three wins.  Grubauer opened the week by following up a strong 25 saves on 26 shots performance against Tampa Bay in his previous start with a 24 save effort in the Caps’ 4-1 win over San Jose.  Two straight wins for Grubauer after going 0-5-1 in his first eight appearances (two no-decisions) was a welcome sight for Caps fans.

Braden Holtby got the call in the other two games in Week 10, and he built on a strong run of late.  With 64 saves on 68 shots (.941 save percentage) over the two games, it brought his record to 5-1-0, 2.34, .926 over his last six games.

Grubauer and Holtby combined for strong first periods in games in Week 10, stopping 32 of the 33 first period shots they faced (.970 save percentage).  That save percentage dropped off somewhat from period to period (.946 in the second periods of games, .913 in the third periods of games), but it was still a solid week overall for the Caps in net. 

Power Play: 3-for-13 / 23.1 percent (season: 21.2 percent, rank: 7th)

The Caps were effective and efficient on the power play in Week 10, posting their fifth straight week at 20.0 percent or better on the man advantage.  They achieved that by pummeling opponents for 22 shots with the man advantage in 18:47 of power play ice time.  Washington has now gone 16 games without having recorded consecutive games without a power play goal.  Over those 16 games they are 13-for-56 (23.2 percent).  Not a spectacular power play (ninth-best over that span) but solid.

One of the encouraging things about the power play this week was in the unexpected sources of goal scoring.  Brett Connolly had a pair of man advantage goals, and Jakub Vrana had the other.  In a reversal of roles, Alex Ovechkin had a pair of power play assists, bringing him to within two of 200 career power play assists (he is the only non-center among the top dozen in power play assists since 2005-2006).  Seven different players recorded points on the power play.  One of them was Nicklas Backstrom, who with an assist on the man advantage finished the week with 256 career power play assists, by far the most in the league since he entered the NHL in 2007-2008 (Joe Thornton has 217).

Penalty Killing: 8-for-8 / 100.0 percent (season: 79.4 percent, rank: 20th)

The Caps were perfect on the penalty kill for the second straight week, the first time this season they went consecutive weeks without giving up a power play goal.  They went the entire five-game home stand without allowing a power play goal and extended the consecutive games streak without having allowed one to six.

The penalty kill was impressive in its efficiency as well, holding three opponents to just eight shots on goal over eight power plays in 14:23 of shorthanded ice time.  As a bonus, they recorded a shorthanded goal when Tom Wilson flicked a shot the length of the ice to seal the Caps’ 6-2 win over Chicago in the middle game of the week.

Faceoffs: 98-for-179 / 54.7 percent (season: 52.2 percent, rank: 6th)

As with most other aspects of their week, it was a good one in the circle for the Caps overall, even if they slipped under 50 percent in their 6-2 win over the Blackhawks in the middle game of the week (44.8 percent).  They were 54.7 percent overall, and they were 50 percent or better in all three zones – 55.8 percent in the offensive zone (24-for-43), 50.0 percent in the defensive zone (33-for-66), and 48.6 percent in the neutral zone (41-for-70).

Individually, the top faceoff guys were top faceoff guys.  Each of the four players taking at least ten draws for the week finished over 50 percent – Nicklas Backstrom (29-for-52/55.8 percent), Lars Eller (21-for-38/55.3 percent), Jay Beagle (19-for-36/52.8 percent), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (21-for-40/52.5 percent).

Goals by Period:

The dominant week extended to domination by period, the Caps outscoring opponents by at least two goals overall in each of the three periods of the week.  What is more, the Caps scored the first goal in eight of the nine periods played in Week 10, allowing the period’s first goal only in the last period of the week, when the Rangers tied the game, 2-2, 9:37 into the third period of the Caps’ 4-2 win.

Of note is the continued good fortune that the Caps are enjoying early in games, outscoring opponents by an 8-2 margin over the last two weeks to open up a plus-9 goal differential in the first periods of games overall this season.  With five first period goals in three games this week, the Caps now have 32 first period goals this season, tied with Tampa Bay for third most in the league.  In holding their three opponents to just one first period goal, the Caps jumped into the top ten in fewest first period goals allowed (23/tied for eighth fewest).

In the end…

Three wins for the Caps in Week 10 left them with a 4-1-0 home stand, and 12 home wins this season.  Only the Tampa Bay Lightning have more home wins (13) in the league, and only the Los Angeles Kings have a better record over their last ten games (8-1-1) than the Caps do in theirs (8-2-0).  Since November 1st, the Caps have the second best record/points total in the league (13-5-0/26 points), topped only by the Nashville Predators (13-3-2/28 points).

However, the injury T.J. Oshie suffered in the 4-1 win over San Jose to open the week looms large for the Caps, who did get Andre Burakovsky back off the injured list to wrap up the week.  Oshie’s absence is important in a broad sense, given his contributions at even strength and on the power play, and in his energetic style overall.  It was encouraging to see Brett Connolly step up to contribute on the man advantage and for Tom Wilson to make a difference on the right side of the top line.  Spreading out the contributions can make up for a player’s absence, at least in the short term, and will undoubtedly make the Caps a better overall group when Oshie returns. 

In the meantime, the Caps inched up the standings, finishing the week in second place in the Metropolitan Division, two points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets.  However, just five points separate the top six teams in the division, meaning that even a short slump can leave a team looking up at several teams in a very crowded division.

The Caps now face the challenge of taking the momentum they built with their four-game winning streak on the road, spending six of the next eight games away from Capital One Arena.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Tom Wilson (3-4-7, plus-6, 11 PIMs, 1 SHG, first career four-point game)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-5-7, plus-6, 2 PPA, 2 GWG, 15 shots on goal, 25 shot attempts)
• Third Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-3-5, plus-5, snapped 21-game goalless streak, 55.8 percent faceoff wins)