The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 40: Devils at Capitals, December 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up the 2017 portion of their 2017-2018 season on Saturday night when they host the New Jersey Devils at Capital One Arena in a…wait for it…METRO MATCHUP!!!

This “Metro Matchup” has meaning, to the extent the 40^th game of an 82-game season has meaning.  The Caps and the Devils, each being a surprise team of sorts at this stage of the season, went into Thursday’s games tied in standings points at the top of the division (New Jersey hosts the Buffalo Sabres on Friday night).

While the Caps are a surprise in that most observers thought they might take a step or two backward this season after last year’s second consecutive Presidents Trophy season, the Devils are a surprise in being this successful this soon after four straight seasons out of the playoff mix and finishing with just 28 wins last season and at the bottom of the Metro.

The Devils went into Friday’s game against Buffalo with a five-game winning streak and points in seven straight contests (6-0-1).  Since starting that seven-game points streak on December 12^th, only the Boston Bruins have more standings points earned (14) than the Devils (13, tied with Vegas), but they did it in nine games played (6-1-2).

The Devils might not have the top end skill that some teams have, but they make it up by spreading things around.  And that has been the case in their seven-game points run.  Fifteen different players have goals in the seven games, while 18 different skaters have points.  One of those players is leading overall scorer Taylor Hall, who is 3-4-7 in the seven-game run despite missing a pair of games with a bruised knee suffered in a 5-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings to start the streak, a game in which Hall scored a pair of goals, including the game-winner.  Hall has had an assortment of injuries over his eight-year career, a problem that has allowed him to dress for all of a season’s games only once, when he appeared in 82 games for the Edmonton Oilers in 2015-2016.  It might explain in part his inability to reach the lofty levels of performance one might have expected of a first overall draft pick (in 2010 by Edmonton).  Hall has never had a 30-goal season, although he has averaged almost 28 goals per 82 games over the course of his career.  Keeping him in the lineup and productive matters to the Devils, who are 17-3-1 in the 21 games he has registered a point this season.  In nine career games against the Caps, Hall is 2-1-3, minus-3.

Will Butcher leads the defense in points in the seven-game points streak (0-4-4) and in overall scoring this season (2-21-23).  Through Thursday’s games those 23 points were tied for the lead among rookie defensemen in the league with Tampa Bay’s Mikhail Sergachev.  Butcher might be seen as something of an overachiever, having been a fifth-round draft pick (123^rd overall) of the Colorado Avalanche in the 2013 entry draft.  After being drafted by the Avs, he matriculated to the University of Denver, where the achievements started being realized.  He would win honors as a National Collegiate Hockey Conference all-star, player of the year, and offensive defenseman of the year (all in 2016-2017).  He also won the Hobey Baker Award as the nation’s top collegiate player in men’s hockey and won a national championship with the Pioneers.  He started hot with nine points (all assists) in his first six games, and while he slowed a bit, he does have five points in eight games (again, all assists) through Thursday. As for the goals, both of them on his ledger were scored on the road.  He had an assist in his only previous appearance against Washington, a 5-2 Caps win back on October 13^th.

The goaltending for New Jersey is a study in stark differences.  In the number one role, Cory Schneider has been very Schneider-like, his .923 save percentage in 28 games (12^th in the league among 56 goalies with at least 500 minutes played) tracking with his career .922 mark.  While his goals against average (2.49/17^th in the league) is a bit above his career norm (2.30), it is a function of his facing 32.4 shots per 60 minutes.  Schneider has all the appearances in the Devils’ seven-game points streak with a 6-0-1, 1.83, .937 record.  He is 3-7-2, 2.38, .914, with one shutout in 13 career appearances against the Caps.

In the backup role and perhaps taking the back half of the back-to-back, Keith Kinkaid has struggled.  After a decent 2016-2017 season in which he posted a 2.64 goals against average and a .916 save percentage, his numbers have deteriorated quite a bit this season.  In ten appearances, he is 5-3-1, but his goals against is more than three-quarters of a goal higher than last season (3.48), while his save percentage has dropped to .893.  He has not seen action since December 9^th when he allowed five goals on 39 shots in a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers.  In four career appearances against Washington, Kinkaid is 1-3-0, 4.23, .867.

1.  Only Carolina and Columbus have settled games in extra time more often (12 times apiece) than the Devils (11 times).  New Jersey is 6-5 in such games.

2.  New Jersey does well in close games.  Only Pittsburgh and Vegas have more one-goal wins (12 apiece) than the Devils (11).  Only Winnipeg has lost fewer one-goal games in regulation (none) than has New Jersey (once).

3.  The Devils do not wither late.  They have allowed only 28 third period goals this season, third-fewest in the league (San Jose: 21; Los Angeles: 23).

4.  New Jersey does not often out-shoot opponents, but when they do, they scoop up points.  They outshot their opponents only ten times through 36 games (through Thursday night).  Only Anaheim has outshot opponents less frequently (eight times), but the Devils are 6-1-3 in their ten games.

5.  The Devils are the exception to the rule that success follows possession.  New Jersey ranks 27^th in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (47.09).  They are 28^th in tied situations (45.84) and 27^th in close situations (47.34; numbers from NHL.com).

1.  The Caps are still struggling with possession numbers.  They rank in the bottom ten in shot attempts-for percentage overall (48.32/22^nd), tied situations (45.80/29^th), and close situations (47.87).  The frustrating thing here that points to a lack of focus or energy is that they rank tenth in the league when behind in games (54.96).

2.  The Gimmick win over Boston on Thursday was the Caps’ third this season.  Only Columbus has more (four).

3.  One of the ways to look at how unique Alex Ovechkin’s career has been is to look at who might be on the horizon to even come close to his goal-scoring totals.  Is there anyone on the horizon, say under the age of 30, who might make a dent in the gap between themselves and Ovechkin?  Of players under 30 in the league, only two – Steven Stamkos and Patrick Kane – have cleared the 300 goal mark (Stamkos has 336 as he approaches his 28^th birthday; Kane has 300 having just turned 29 in November).  By the time Ovechkin reached his 30^th birthday, just before the start of the 2015-2016 season, he had 475 goals.  It will be a while before we speak of anyone else with a shot at 600 career goals.

4.  When Braden Holtby took the ice against Boston on Thursday night, it was his 336^th appearance in the NHL, tying him with Mike Karakas for 137^th place on the all-time list of appearances for goalies.  And here is where we veer off a bit.  Karakas played for the Chicago Blackhawks and the Montreal Canadiens in the 1930’s and 1940’s.  The odd thing about his career was that he was once suspended for refusing an assignment to the AHL.  That suspension was lifted by NHL President Frank Calder, upon which he was loaned to Montreal after their goalie was injured. He went 0-4-1 in five games.  Maybe his heart wasn’t in it, although to be fair, the Canadiens were awful (10-33-5, seventh in a seven-team league).  Then again, he once played in a Stanley Cup final wearing a steel-toed boot to protect a broken toe.  He, with a 1.71 goals against average for the playoffs, and the Blackhawks won the Cup (1938).  Next up for Holtby on the games played list is former Capital Clint Malarchuk (338).

5.  Like that comeback on Thursday?  It was the Caps’ fourth win this season when trailing after the first period.  Only three teams have more such wins (San Jose: 6; Los Angeles: 5; Vegas: 5). That’s the good news.  The bad is that they have trailed at the first intermission 12 times this season.  That they are tied for sixth in winning percentage in such games (.333) speaks to just how tough it is to come back in this league when falling behind.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Brian Boyle

There are some things that just transcend team loyalty.  Rooting for a player who toils on even after being diagnosed with chronic myelogenous leukemia (a condition treatable with medication) is high on that list.  Boyle’s would be an interesting story without the medical angle, though.  A first round pick of the Los Angeles Kings in 2003, he seemed to be a pick for a different era.  A player of considerable size (6’6”/245) and physical presence, he seemed to have at least the body type for the pre-2004-2005 lockout style of clutch and grab, one that put a premium on being physical.  He did not seem to be especially well-suited for the post-lockout style, especially in recent seasons, of speed and elusiveness.  However, Boyle has carved out a respectable career with five teams and 650 games filling a bottom six forward role and chipping in the timely goal (21 of his 103 career goals are game-winners).  He has been especially effective for the Devils, potting ten goals on 44 shots (22.7 shooting percentage) in 26 games of work (he missed the Devils’ first ten games this season).  He is also the leading scorer in the seven-game points streak for New Jersey (5-4-9, plus-6).  Boyle is 8-6-14, plus-5, in 29 career games against the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Social media was abuzz on Thursday asking, to boil it down, “what’s up with Oshie?”  His game against the Bruins was not of the sort one puts in their personal scrapbook, and with five games played since he returned from a concussion (his fourth documented instance), games in which he is 1-0-1, minus-3, the question has some merit.  Every player goes through slumps and dry stretches, but coming off an injury such as his, there is concern, at least among a segment of the fan base, that perhaps he came back a game or two early or is otherwise not quite right just yet.  His dry spell with respect to goal scoring has extended to a dozen games over which he has a single goal, although he was more of his rambunctious self in the Gimmick win over Boston in which he had six shots on goal, almost the total he had in the first four games since his return (eight).  The goal scoring matters; the team is 5-1-2 in the eight games in which Oshie had goals this season.  The odd thing about his game log this season is the team’s lack of success in games in which he logs high minutes (perhaps a function of having to play top-six forwards more in losing situations).  The Caps are 8-9-2 in games in which Oshie logged more than 19 minutes.  He is 4-3-7, even, in 11 career games against the Devils.

In the end…

While this game has meaning in the standings, the value might be more symbolic value than actual.  Yes, it could propel the Caps into the lead in the Metropolitan Division (depending on the Devils’ standing after Friday night’s game against Buffalo), and it would be something of a statement game against an upstart rival.  It also would have some historical meaning.  A win would give the Caps 24 wins at calendar year end, tied for third-most in team history (25 in 1991-1992 and 28 wins in 2015-2016); a standings point would give the Caps their fifth season in franchise history with at least 50 points by calendar year end of a season.  But it represents the end of the beginning, the last of the 2017 portion of the season.  The Caps started 2017 with a win, a 2-1 victory over the Ottawa Senators on New Year’s Day.  A win would be a nice way to end the year.

Capitals 4 – Devils 2

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 39: Capitals 4 - Bruins 3 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals extended their dominance over the Boston Bruins for one more game, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit to escape with a 4-3 Gimmick win over the Bruins to make it 12 straight wins over the B's.

First Period

The Caps and the…GOAL!  Wait, what?  The Bruins scored a goal just…GOAL!!  Another one??  Barely two minutes into the game, the Bruins had a 2-0 lead.  Guess they are a bit motivated, having last beaten the Caps when Millard Fillmore was President.  For the record, it was David Backes at 1:23 and Noel Acciari at 2:12 to open the scoring.  Boston had the first nine shot attempts before Nicklas Backstrom recorded a missed shot 3:01 into the period.

Brooks Orpik had a busy start to the period.  He was a minus-2 and took a fighting major in his first 1:50 of ice time covering two shifts.  Tom Wilson might have saved the Caps from falling three goals behind late in the period when, after goalie Braden Holtby tried to clear the puck from below his own goal line up the middle, hit Bruin Jake DeBrusk, who corralled the puck with a chance in front of him.  However, Wilson dove to get his stick on DeBrusk’s shot just enough to muffle it and allow Holtby to make the save.

That would be how the period ended, the Bruins with a 14-1o edge in shots on goal and a 27-15 advantage in shot attempts.  The Caps spent another period having their faces taken off on faceoffs, losing 14 of 22 draws.  Only Lars Eller was over 50 percent (2-for-3).

Second Period

Boston piled up shot attempts to open the period, taking a 41-21 advantage eight minutes into the period.  But the Caps slowly reeled the Bruins in, and eventually they broke their scoreless streak at 177:32 of ice time with a Lars Eller goal 12:31 into the period.  It was the product of persistence on Eller’s part, following the puck through the offensive zone, around the Boston net, and eventually hunting it down as he was circling through the right wing circle.  From the high slot he ripped one across his body and past goalie Anton Khudobin, who will look at the film and want that chance back.  But the Caps were on the board…finally.

Then, with Torey Krug in the penalty box for a slashing penalty, John Carlson spoon-fed Alex Ovechkin the puck in the left wing circle for a one-timer that beat Khudobin over his right shoulder on the near side to tie the game at 14:07 of the period.  The Caps had another power play before the end of the period, and while they did not convert, it appeared as if the momentum clearly shifted to their side of the rink as the teams went to their locker rooms in a 2-2 game.

Third Period

The momentum the Caps had was squandered early when T.J. Oshie took a penalty five minutes into the period.  The Caps killed the Bruin power play, but then Oshie doubled up on his mistake by exiting the box and turning the puck over, David Backes converting the gift that goalie Braden Holtby appeared to think he should have gloved down, seeing as how he was inspecting his equipment for holes after the goal was scored at the 7:19 mark.

The Caps killed another penalty, and then they re-tied the game, Brett Connolly credited for a goal originally given to Tom Wilson, slipping a loose puck past Khudobin from the top of the crease off a scrum in front that ended with Khudobin knocked to the ice.  The Bruins challenged the call for the Caps being offside, but replay clearly showed that Lars Eller carried the puck into the offensive zone onside, and then pulled the puck back to, but not past the blue line, thus remaining onside, the game tied once more 11:22 into the period.

Neither team could crack the other’s netminder in the last eight plus minutes, and the Caps went to overtime for the fifth time in six games.

Overtime

Five minutes of spirited action did nothing to take this contest to a conclusion, so the teams went to…

The Gimmick

Oshie…no.  Marchand…no.  Kuznetsov…no.  Pastrnak…no.  Ovechkin…GOAL!!! 

Nash…wide.

Caps win.  Over Boston.  Again.

Other stuff…

-- That makes 12 straight wins over Boston.  As noted, Millard Fillmore was President when the Bruins last defeated the Caps.  OK, it just seems that way.

-- After the Bruins took that whopping 41-21 edge in shot attempts eight minutes into the second period, the Caps steamrolled the Bruins in that number, 43-27 over the last 37 minutes of regulation and overtime.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s power play goal ended a five-game streak without a power play goal for the Caps and an 0-for-12 streak overall.

-- Lars Eller snapped a 16-game streak without a goal when he scored in the second period. He did have his second multi-point game (1-1-2) in his last five contests.

-- The Caps played their fifth extra time game in their last six contests; they are 3-2 in those extra-timers.

-- Ovechkin was a five-by-five (by five) player in this one…five shots on goal, five missed shots, and five credited hits.

-- Tom Wilson did the power forward thing nicely in this game.  In 15:41 he had an assist on the Eller goal, he created a disturbance in front of goalie Anton Khudobin that led to the Brett Connolly goal, he was a plus-2, he drew a penalty, and he had seven credited hits to lead the team.  He didn’t get a star, but he played his role very well.  It was "Knublish."

-- Braden Holtby, who allowed goals on the Bruins’ second and fourth shots of the game, stopped 29 of the last 30 shots he faced.  He didn’t get a star, either, but he righted the ship and stopped the bleeding long enough for the Caps to crawl back into the contest.

-- Odd game?  Well, yeah… Evgeny Kuznetsov was the only Capital to finish over 50 percent on faceoffs (8-for-14/57.1%).

-- Hits are an odd thing in hockey.  They are in the eye of the beholder (that is, the official scorer), and tonight’s beholder had the Caps hitting the Bruins more often than a kid on a sugar high whacking a piñata.  The Caps were credited with 37 hits (to only 14 for Boston), only four skaters not credited with at least one.  Four Caps were credited with five or more: Wilson (7), Ovechkin (5), Devante Smith-Pelly (5), and Brooks Orpik (5).

In the end…

The Caps started badly, but found their battle mode over the last half of the game.  Maybe it was, as Lars Eller hinted at in a post-game TV interview, Barry Trotz reading them the riot act at the first intermission.  Whatever, the Caps dominated the last 35 minutes of regulation and overtime.  From the other side, it was a case of a team grabbing early momentum, and then squandering it.  Once lost, it is hard to regain, and the Caps took advantage of that. 

So take away what you will from this game.  The glass-half-empty crowd will lament another poor start, much like the game in Vegas last week.  The glass-half-full crowd will point to the comeback and the contributions from up and down the roster in the last 35 minutes.  Both sides will probably agree, though, that “half” measures might work from time to time, but not in the long run.  The Caps escaped with an extra point in this one, a point they might need down the road.  Enjoy it.

A ONE-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 38: Rangers 1 - Capitals 0 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals wrapped up their four-game road trip on Wednesday night with a 1-0 Gimmick loss to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.  It was hardly an advertisement for the NHL, but worse, it dropped the Caps two points behind the New Jersey Devils for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

First Period

...was…blah. 

There was no scoring and, frankly, even less action.  The Rangers had a 10-8 edge in shots on goal, but the Caps had a 17-13 edge in shot attempts.  There were no power plays.  Matt Niskanen led the good guys with two shots on goal.  If there was an odd statistic, it was that the Caps had as many shots blocked (eight) as shots on goal.  Lars Eller won four of five draws, which was the difference between a bad period (6-for-16) and a ghastly one (2-for-11 without Eller) in the circle.  More odd stuff…Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Chiasson led the Caps in credited hits (two apiece).  It was the sort of period one might expect as the first one after a holiday break, the hockey equivalent of getting up from the dinner table, waddling over to the recliner, sitting back, and unbuttoning one’s pants before dozing off.  Someone has to win this game, because that’s what the rules require, but it isn’t too early in this one to think neither team deserves it.

Second Period

It was a lot more of the same over the first half of the period, but then the Caps were awarded a power play, so there was the promise of some excitement.  Shots from Nicklas Backstrom and John Carlson yielded nothing, and then it was the Rangers’ turn to enjoy a power play.  Even less to be had there, as the Caps held the Blueshirts without a shot on goal for the two minutes.  And then the Caps got another power play late in the period.  Alex Ovechkin had a shot on goal…not “in” goal.  And so, the teams went to the second intermission without a red light having been lit.  The Caps did have a 21-18 edge in shots on goal and a 36-28 advantage in shot attempts.  Jakub Vrana led the team with three shots on goal, while Nicklas Backstrom had four shot attempts to top the roster.  Vrana was the only Capital with a better than 50 percent mark in the faceoff circle through 40 minutes…he won his only draw.

Third Period

The Rangers started the period with an all-out assault on the Caps’ net, outshooting the Caps 8-1 before the period was four minutes old.  Philipp Grubauer was up to that challenge, though.  And another…and another…and, well, you get the picture.  By the time the period was over, Grubauer made a case to be the Vezina Trophy winner on the basis of one game…one period, in fact…stopping all 18 shots he faced in the period, many of them of the “best saves of the night” variety.

Overtime

The Caps had their chance.  John Carlson had a glorious opportunity on a wrap around, but a Jedi force field apparently kept the puck from going in as it crawled the entire length of the goal line before deflecting off the far post and out.  And then, Alex Ovechkin took a tripping penalty with less than 30 seconds left.  The Rangers could not convert, though, and the game went to the freestyle competition.

The Gimmick

Rangers had two guys with the initials “MZ” (Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad) score; the Caps had two guys whose last names end in “O” (T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin) stopped…Rangers win.

Other stuff…

• That was Ondrej Pavelec’ first shutout since he beat the Vancouver Canucks, 2-0, on March 22, 2016, as a member of the Winnipeg Jets.
• Philipp Grubauer stopped all 37 shots he faced, the most shots faced by a Caps goalie on the road without allowing a goal since Michal Neuvirth stopped 39 shots in a 1-0 win in Pittsburgh over the Penguins on February 21, 2011.
• It figures that the first time this season a Capitals goalie allows no goals in a game, the team loses.
• The Caps have now gone 145:01 without a goal.
• After suffering a four game streak in allowing at least one power play goal, the Caps had their second consecutive game denying the opponent a power play strike.
• The Caps went 1-1-2 on their four-game road trip around the holiday, but on the other hand, this is their third loss in a row, their longest losing streak of the season.
• Jakub Vrana and Alex Ovechkin led the team with four shots on goal apiece; Dmitry Orlov and Madison Bowey were the only skaters without a shot on goal.
• Back to Grubauer… In his last nine appearances he has a .936 save percentage, yet his record is just 2-3-2 (two no-decisions).
• Based on our quick research, this was the first 0-0 game to be settled in the Gimmick since the Edmonton Oilers beat the Montreal Canadiens in Montreal, 1-0, on February 5, 2017.
• The Rangers had a 64-54 edge in shot attempts.  Rick Nash led the Rangers with eight attempts (six on goal); Ovechkin led the Caps with eight as well (four on goal).

In the end…

You could say it was the ice, which seemed to have the quality of a snow cone, or you could say it was the first game after a holiday, or you could say it was just one of those games in an 82-game season.  Whatever, the Caps looked equal parts sluggish and clueless over long stretches of this game.  That they escaped with a standings point it first, last, and entirely a product of the superb play of Philipp Grubauer in goal in what would qualify as one of the best games by a goalie anywhere in the NHL this season.

A 1-1-2 road trip is not the worst of outcomes, but how one gets there matters.  The Caps started with an encouraging win in a difficult city, winning in overtime in Dallas.  But losing to the woeful Arizona Coyotes in overtime, having their lunch eaten in front of them in the first 15 minutes in a 3-0 loss to Vegas, and then this sleep-inducting spectacle made for what ended up being a disappointing trip.  The Caps will wrap up the 2017 portion of their season at home against Boston and New Jersey.  One hopes the familiar surroundings will give them a boost of energy that seemed lacking on this trip.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Bruins at Capitals, December 28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After a four-game absence wrapped (get it?) around the Christmas holiday, the Washington Capitals return home on Thursday night to host the Boston Bruins at Capital One Arena. These teams met last on December 14^th, the Caps taking a 5-3 decision in Boston, the five goals tying their season high in a road game, also achieved in New Jersey against the Devils in a 5-2 win on October 13^th and again in Edmonton against the Oilers in a 5-2 win on October 28^th).

Since dropping that 5-3 decision to the Caps, the Bruins have rolled to a five-game points streak (4-0-1) and a four-game winning streak.  Boston has done it over the last five games with some offense, including a 7-2 pasting of the Columbus Blue Jackets, averaging 3.2 goals per game.  They have also done it with defense, highlighted by a 3-0 shutout of the Buffalo Sabres, averaging just 1.4 goals per game allowed.

The veterans have carried the mail in the five-game streak, led in goals by Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron with three apiece.  Marchand has displayed a noteworthy level of consistency this season, recording just the first instance of consecutive games without a point on his ledger in the shutout of Buffalo and a 2-1 Gimmick win over the Winnipeg Jets.  Marchand has points in 20 of the 26 games in which he played this season (not including Wednesday night’s game against the Ottawa Senators).  The odd part of Marchand’s season to date, though, might be the absences.  He has missed eight games in two separate blocks, over which the Bruins went 5-3-0.  Boston is 14-7-5 when Marchand is in the lineup.  That, plus the 9-1-4 record when Marchand recorded a goal in games so far, makes the ornery cuss a player to be mindful of when he is on the ice, and not just for his frequent chippy hijinks.  Marchand is 7-9-16, minus-7, in 25 career games against the Caps.

Patrice Bergeron is the antithesis of Brad Marchand on the ice.  In 13 previous seasons, all with Boston, Bergeron has carved out a reputation for being a defensive wizard (eight straight seasons receiving Selke Trophy votes as the league’s top defensive forward, winning four times, including last season) and a gentlemanly player (11 seasons receiving Lady Byng Trophy votes).  Not that he has been unproductive.  Bergeron ranks eighth in franchise history in goals scored (269) and seventh in points (695).  Only four players in team history have appeared in more games for the Bruins than Bergeron (928).  Lately, he has been a “deuces wild” sort of player.  In four of the last five games in which he recorded points, he did so by posting two, including a pair of goals against the Caps in the Bruins’ 5-3 loss in Boston earlier this month.  In 43 career games against the Caps, Bergeron is 12-26-38, minus-8.

Danton Heinen is tied with David Backes for second in total scoring over the Bruins’ five-game points streak (2-3-5).  He has been something of a find for the Bruins, taken as a fourth-round pick (116^th overall) in the 2014 draft by the B’s.  After two seasons with the University of Denver Pioneers in the NCAA and a stop with the Providence Bruins in the AHL, he got his first taste of the NHL last season, dressing for eight games in which he did not record a point.  The points have come this season, though, in enough volume for Heinen to rank tenth among rookies in total scoring (8-14-22).  His 14 assists is tied for sixth among this season’s rookies.  When he recorded a pair of assists against the Caps in the 5-3 loss in Boston two weeks ago, it set him off on a four-game points streak (2-5-7), but he is without a point in his last two contests.  Those two assists are his only career points in two games against Washington.

1.  Holding teams under thirty shots seems to be quite a chore this season in the NHL.  Boston has done it 18 times, third-most in the league (Carolina and St. Louis have done it 22 times apiece).  They also rank third in fewest shots per game (29.8, behind only Carolina (29.5) and Dallas (29.4)).

2.  Going into the holiday break, only the New York Rangers have had fewer power play opportunities on the road (38) than the Bruins (42).  On the other hand, no team was shorthanded fewer times than Boston (45), and no team allowed fewer power play goals on the road (six).

3.  Boston is one of four teams that, through the holiday break, lost just one game in regulation when scoring first (14-1-3), the others being the New York Islanders (12-1-0), Vegas Golden Knights (15-1-0) and Winnipeg Jets (16-1-4).

4.  Boston has more wins when out-shot by opponents (10) than when they out-shoot them (9).

5.  The Bruins are 6-3 in decisions of three or more goals.  Only Los Angeles (.818) and Tampa Bay (.857) have a better winning percentage in such decisions than Boston (.667).

1.  The Caps have the fourth-best winning percentage in one-goal decisions (.692/9-2-2).

2.  Washington has 13 players with double digits in points through Christmas (37 games) this season.  Last season they had 11 players with double digits at Christmas (32 games).

3.  Three teams have more bench minor penalties than the Caps (7) this season: Nashville (8), Toronto (8), and Ottawa (9).

4.  Three teams have a shorthanded faceoff winning percentage over 50 percent.  The Caps are one of them (50.2).  Dallas (50.7) and Pittsburgh (51.8) are the others.

5.  The Caps lead the league in wins when leading after one period (14).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Tuukka Rask

If there is a potential subplot to this game, it is the impenetrable object meeting the leaky sieve.  And both would be Tuukka Rask, the former representing his 8-0-1, 1.45, .946 record, with one shutout, over his last ten appearances (one no-decision), a string of games that includes none allowing more than two goals in regulation (his lone loss was in a 3-2 overtime loss to the New York Rangers on December 16th).  On the other hand, there is the 1-10-5, 3.07, .889 career record against the Caps (with one shutout).  Sure, Rask has more losses against the Montreal Canadiens (15), but that number has accumulated over 26 career games).  And he does have a worse save percentage against the Anaheim Ducks (.865), but that is over less than half the ice time (464 minutes) than he has against the Caps (937 minutes).  He has as many wins against the first-year Vegas Golden Knights (one in two games) as he has against the Caps (in 17 games).  Is there a law of averages or a balancing of the hockey fates to be had here, or are the Caps just “that team” against which he will have a career’s long frustration?  Let’s hope for the latter if he gets the call in the second half of the Bruins’ back-to-back.

Washington: Jay Beagle

If there is a better indicator of Capitals success in team history than Jay Beagle, it would be hard to find.  Beagle has points in 94 of the 429 games he has dressed in his Caps career, and the team is 77-10-7 in those games.  The Caps are 38-1-5 in games in the 44 games in which he scored a goal.  This season, the Caps are 8-2-0 when Beagle recorded a point, 4-0-0 when he posted a goal.  After going 2-4-6 over a nine-game stretch from November 24^th through December 12^th (over which the Caps were 7-2-0), he is without a point in his last five games. And more Beagle is a good thing.  Perhaps this is a product of being able to roll four lines in games in which the Caps have leads, but through Christmas the team is 12-2-0 in games in which Beagle logged at least 13 minutes in ice time.  And an active Beagle is a good thing, too, at least in terms of shots.  The Caps are 16-6-1 when Beagle recorded at least one shot on goal, 6-7-1 when he did not.  He is 1-2-3, minus-3, in 17 career games against Boston.

In the end…

We are now entering the great void of the NHL season, those games between Christmas and the trading deadline that can be a bit of a grind, but a part of the season that can make or break a team.  Last season, the Caps went 22-5-3 in the 30 games between Christmas and March 1.  It is the time that tests the discipline of a team and their attention to detail and execution.  Those elements have been spotty to date with this year’s edition of the Caps, but now we get to see just what sort of team this is as the schedule turns to the most grueling stretch of the season.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 37: Capitals at Golden Knights, December 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their stunning 3-2 overtime loss to the Arizona Coytoes on Friday night, get right back to it with their first visit to Las Vegas, wrapping up their back-to-back set of games before Christmas against the Golden Knights.

The Caps, who had a four-game winning streak snapped in the loss to the Coyotes, are still no strangers to success, having won more than 100 games over the previous two seasons and Presidents Trophies in each as the top team in the standings in the regular season.  For the Golden Knights, though, everything is new.  Even their unprecedented run of success to open their inaugural season. 

Special Section...Odd Facts About the Vegas Golden Knights Inaugural Season to Impress Your Friends:

• Vegas is on a pace to finish the season as the only one of 26 expansion teams in NHL history averaging more than one standings point per game, currently 1.39 points per game.  The 1993-1994 Florida Panthers have the highest mark to date (.988 on a record of 33-34-17).
• The Washington Capitals set the record for inaugural season futility when they went 8-67-7 80 games of the 1974-1975 season.  Vegas won its eighth game in its ninth game in franchise history.
• Through 33 games, the Golden Knights already have the 18^th highest number of wins among 26 expansion teams since 1967.  Beating the Caps would tie them with the 1992-1993 Tampa Bay Lightning for 17^th place.
• Expansion teams are often populated by a large number of players from other places, but the Golden Knights have two rookies to dress among their skaters, and both are in the top-30 in points among rookies – Alex Tuch (15 points/T-16^th) and Brendan Leipsic (10 points/T-26^th).
• The Vegas Golden Knights are the fastest team to 20 wins in its inaugural season, and it is not close.  They did it in their 31^st game.  Among teams in the expansion era, the 1967-1968 Philadelphia Flyers won their 20^th game in Game 41 of their season.  It was an especially sweet 20^th win for the Golden Knights, who accomplished the feat at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins with former Penguin goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury getting the win.

In the here and now, Vegas comes into this game not having played since beating the Tampa Bay Lightning at home, 4-3, on Tuesday.  The win extended the Golden Knights’ streak of games earning points to eight (7-0-1).  In that eight-game run they outscored opponents by a 27-19 margin, not including Gimmick goals.  And they have spread those 27 goals around, 14 different skaters sharing in the good fortune.

Erik Haula and James Neal lead the club in goals scored in that eight-game points streak with five apiece.  Neal is a player with whom a lot of hockey fans are familiar.  Well-traveled goal scorer, among the dirtiest players in the NHL. 

Neal, who has five goals in the eight-game points streak, leads the team overall with 17 goals.  No surprise there.  With three more goals he would hit the 20-goal mark for the tenth time in a ten-year career, the 31^st player in league history to reach 20 goals in each of his first ten seasons.  If you don’t think that is a big deal, consider that there are 44 players in NHL history (including Neal, for the moment), who managed nine 20-goal seasons in their first ten NHL seasons.  He also has a knack for scoring game-winning goals, his 41 game-winners over his ten year career tied for 14^th in that span, with Sidney Crosby and Eric Staal.  He currently holds the Golden Knight record for consecutive games with a goal to start a season (four), and he has those five goals in his last seven games.  As are many goal scorers, he can be streaky, and he is on a streak.  At least he hasn’t been suspended by the league since 2013 (what was his third suspension by the league), but he was fined $5,000 (the maximum at the time as supplementary discipline without requiring a phone hearing) in March 2014 for a cross-check to the head of Detroit’s Luke Glendening.  Neal is 10-5-15, plus-6, in 18 career games against the Capitals.

The casual fan might not have much familiarity with the work of Erik Haula, but this season could cause some to take notice.  Taken in the seventh-round (182^nd overall) by the Minnesota Wild in the 2009 draft, the native of Pori, Finland, he is already pushing up against his career high in goals scored.  He has 13 in just 29 games this year, within shouting distance of the career-best 15 goals he had with the Wild last season.  Four of those 13 goals have been game-winners, tying the career high he set last year, and his four power play goals so far are twice as many as he had in his four seasons preceding this one.  Perhaps the goal scoring is a product of more responsibility, or vice versa, but he is averaging more than 17 minutes a game, three and a half minutes more than he averaged last season.  The odd part of his goal scoring is venue.  He has eight of his 13 goals in 16 road games and five of them in 13 games at T-Mobile Arena.  He comes into this game with a seven-game points streak (5-5-10, plus-3).  Haula has yet to record a point in six career games against the Caps and is minus-2.

For a club with as much success as the Golden Knights have had so far, they have certainly gone through goaltenders.  Five in all so far.  It was not supposed to be this way.  It was supposed to be Marc-Andre Fleury, three-time Stanley Cup winner with the Pittsburgh Penguins, who would be the early face of the franchise and provide an anchor in goal.  It started that way when Fleury won his first three decisions of the season, stopping 103 of 107 shots (a .963 save percentage).  Sure, two of those wins came against the woeful Arizona Coyotes, but still, it was a fine start for a new franchise.  Then the Golden Knights hosted the Detroit Red Wings on October 13^th. 

Mid-way through the second period in a 1-1 game, Detroit’s Anthony Mantha got position on defenseman Luca Sbisa and cut to the net.  As Mantha tried to get a shot off, Fleury dove to poke the puck off Mantha’s stick.  At the same time, Sbisa nudged Mantha just enough to alter his path across the top of the crease, and Mantha’s knee caught Fleury in the side of the head.  Fleury shook it off and continued, but obviously something was off.  Fleury allowed five goals on the last 17 shots he saw in a 6-3 loss.  It was the last game he played until December 12^th, the victim of a concussion.  He has been sharp in his return, going 2-0-1, 1.95, .940.  In fact, take out those five goals on 17 shots after getting whacked in the head against Detroit, and his save percentage this season is .955.  Small sample to be sure, but he’s been what the Golden Knights have wanted when he has been available.  In 36 career games against the Caps, Fleury is 20-12-2, 2.60, .913, with three shutouts.

1.  Few teams spend more time sitting out penalty minutes than the Golden Knights.  Two in fact.  The 7:25 per game in penalty minutes charged to Vegas is bettered only by the Arizona Coyotes (7:13) and the Carolina Hurricanes (6:22, through Thursday’s games).  No team has fewer major penalties than the three taken by Vegas so far (tied with Carolina and the Chicago Blackhawks).

2.  Vegas has some odd “leading/trailing” numbers.  They have led at the first intermission just 12 times in 33 games and at the second intermission just 14 times.  And their records aren’t especially impressive, ranking tied for 18^th in winning percentage when leading after 20 minutes (.750/9-3-0) and tied for 17^th when leading after 40 minutes (.857/12-2-0).  But they are tied for the league lead in winning percentage when trailing after 20 minutes (.444/4-3-2) and lead the league in winning percentage when trailing games after 40 minutes (.400/4-5-1).

3.  The Golden Knights have also been impressive in one-goal games with the third-best winning percentage in such games (.733/11-2-2).

4.  Vegas can be solved late in games.  Only four teams have allowed more third period goals than the Golden Knights (41) through Thursday’s games: Edmonton (43), Minnesota (44), St. Louis (45), and Arizona (49).  Seems to be a Western Conference thing.

5.  If Vegas scores first, good luck.  They are 14-1-0 in games when scoring first, the best winning percentage in the league (.933).

1.  The overtime loss to the Coyotes was the Caps’ first extra-time loss since dropping a 4-3 overtime decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning on October 9^th.  It was just their second extra-time loss of the season, leaving them with a record of 6-2 in such games.

2.  No team has had less 5-on-3 power play ice time than the Caps this season – 20 seconds.

3.  T.J. Oshie broke a two-game streak without a point with his goal against the Coyotes on Friday.  He had not had consecutive games without a point since November 2-4.  Since then, he is 5-9-13 in 15 games.

4. Evgeny Kuznetsov, who also scored a goal on Friday, is even hotter.  Since the last time he had consecutive games without a point (October 29 – November 2), he is 9-14-23 in 23 games.

5.  The 17 shots the Caps recorded against the Coyotes on Friday was their season low.  They had 19 shots on goal in two games, in a 4-3 win over the New York Islanders on November 2^nd and in a 2-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers on November 12^th.  It was the first time that the Caps were held under 20 shots on goal in a road game.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vegas: Nate Schmidt

It appears that Nate Schmidt, perhaps to the dismay of his fans in Washington, has found a home in the desert.  Taken in the expansion draft last summer, he is one of two defensemen to appear in every game so far this season (Colin Miller is the other), is second in points among defensemen with 15 (Miller has 19), and leads Vegas blueliners in ice time per game (22:36).  He is already within a goal of his career best (he had three last season with the Caps) and two points of his career high (17 points last year).  He has three power play assists with Vegas after not recording a power play point in 200 games with Washington over four seasons.  But there is a catch.  More Nate ain’t great.  Vegas is 4-5-1 in those games in which he skated more than 23:30, 8-1-1 in games in which he logged less than 21:30 in ice time.  And there is his shooting.  He scored a goal in his second game with the Golden Knights, and then went 29 games (and 37 shots) without scoring one until he found the back of the net in a 5-2 win over the Florida Panthers last Sunday (his first goal on home ice with Vegas).  This will be Schmidt’s first career appearance against his old club.

Washington: Andre Burakovsky

It has been a difficult first half of the season for Andre Burakovsky.  He got off to a slow start, going 1-3-4, minus-2, in nine games before sustaining an injury that would keep him out for 20 games.  Since his return he is 2-2-4, plus-1, in seven games, but he has yet to find a scoring rhythm.  He has two mulit-point games among the 16 he has played to date, but the flip side of that is that he has points in just five games overall.  It matters in that the Caps are 4-0-1 in those games.  He has been a bit more productive in road games than he has been at home, going 3-3-6, plus-2, in nine games away from Capital One Arena.  An odd feature of his record so far this year is that in seven games in which he skate at least 14:15 in ice time, the Caps are just 2-4-1.  This will be his first appearance against the Golden Knights, as it will be for all of the Caps.

In the end…

As the saying goes, “what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.”  If you are a visiting NHL team, what you are striving for is to have what happens in Vegas be something to build on and carry over the next stretch of a long NHL season, or at least into the holiday break.  And so that’s the theme for this game.

Capitals 4 – Golden Knights 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Capitals at Coyotes, December 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After a second consecutive third period come-from-behind win, the Washington Capitals head to Arizona for the second of their four-game road trip to face the Coyotes.  The Caps, who came back to defeat the Anaheim Ducks and Dallas Stars in overtime after trailing at the 40-minute mark in each game, will be looking for their fifth straight win, ninth in ten games, and 12^th in their last 14 games when they descend on Glendale.

Meanwhile, the Coyotes are dragging a 7-24-5 record into this contest, the worst in the NHL.  It is a team that cannot score (30^th in scoring offense) and cannot defend (30^th in scoring defense).  Worse, they will bring a seven-game losing streak into this contest (0-6-1).

In that seven-game losing streak the Coyotes have a total of nine goals scored.  Only Derek Stepan has more than one (two).  Stepan was traded to Arizona by the New York Rangers at the 2017 entry draft last June along with goaltender Antti Raanta for defenseman Anthony DeAngelo and the Coyotes’ first round pick in that draft, with which the Rangers took center Lias Andersson.  It has not been a fast start in the desert for Stepan, whose 6-14-20 scoring line in 36 games so far is off in terms of average goals, assists, and games from his last season with the Rangers (he was 17-38-55 in 81 games).  In this seven-game losing streak he is 2-1-3 and a whopping minus-11, worst in the league over that span.  He does have points in 10 of the 15 home games in which he has played so far (4-10-14, minus-3).  In 29 career games against Washington, Stepan is 6-7-13, minus-3.

Clayton Keller leads the team in overall scoring over their seven-game losing streak, going 1-3-4, minus-3.  Having appeared in only three games for Arizona last season, Keller remains rookie-eligible this season, and he is among the top-ranked rookies in offensive production.  His 12 goals ranks second to Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, while his 26-point total ranks third, behind Boeser (32) and the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal (30).  He also happens to lead all rookie forwards in ice time per game (18:48), although his minus-20 for the season is worst among that same group of rookie forwards, and not by a little (teammate Christian Fischer is minus-12 in 34 games).  Keller has a goal and is a plus-1 in his only career game against the Capitals.

The Coyotes have gone through five goalies this season so far.  Somewhere in there is a number one goalie, and that is probably Antti Raanta, at least at the moment.  He has appeared in 17 of the Coyotes’ 36 games to date, and if anything his numbers are respectable, given his team’s place in the standings.  His goals against average (2.82) ranks 28^th among 50 goalies with at least 500 minutes played this season, and his save percentage (.916) ranks 19^th.  He has been slightly better at home (2.76/.917).  However, he does not have a win since November 20^th in what is a case of poor goal support.  In five appearances since then, Raanta is 0-4-0 (one no-decision), 2.62, .926.  He has faced a lot of rubber in that span though, averaging 35.5 shots faced per 60 minutes.  Raanta is 1-1-0, 2.59, .906 in three career appearances against the Caps.

1.  Arizona has one win at home in regulation time this season, a 5-0 win over the New Jersey Devils on December 2^nd.  They are 3-11-1 overall on home ice.  No team has more losses in regulation time on home ice than the Coyotes.

2.  The Coyotes have one skater among 27 to dress this season who is a “plus” player, and he – defenseman Joel Hanley – is plus-1 in four games played.

3.  Arizona doesn’t blow people out, even when they win.  Among their seven wins, they have five one-goal decisions. Two of their wins were by three or more goals, tied for second-fewest in the league (Buffalo has none).

4.  Shot differenial hardly seem to matter to the Coyotes.  They have three wins when out-shooting opponents, and they have three wins when they are out-shot.  They also happen to have 11 losses in regulation when out-shooting opponents and 12 losses when out-shot.  They are 1-1 when the shots are even.

5.  There are 29 teams in the league with a winning record when scoring first in games.  Arizona is not among them.  Their 5-10-3 record when scoring first (.278 winning percentage) is worst in the league by quite a bit (Buffalo is 6-5-5/.375).  At least the Coyotes have scored first in half of their games.

1.  Washington has been rather consistent, at least in a rankings context, in the “who-scores-first” category.  They are fifth in winning percentage when scoring first (15-2-1/.833) and sixth in winning percentage when scored upon first (7-10-0/.412).

2.  Odd fact…the Caps have as many wins when outshot by their opponents (13) as they do total games in which they outshot their opponents (13).

3.  About those second periods of games.  The Caps are a top-ten team in goals scored in the first periods of games (35/5^th) and in the third periods of games (38/10^th), but they rank just tied for 18^th in second period goals scored (33).

4.  The Caps have 13 players with at least ten points so far this season.  Next in line is Chandler Stephenson (9), who is 30^th in rookie scoring, despite playing in only 25 games to date.  The odd think is, he barely has as many shots on goal (11) as points.

5.  The Caps are one of three teams in the NHL who have two defensemen to have played in at least 29 games without recording a goal.  The other teams are Boston and Carolina; the Caps defensemen are Brooks Orpik and Madison Bowey.  Why do we think this will change on Friday night?

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona: Oliver Ekman-Larsson

No team in the NHL has a lower club salary cap hit than the Arizona Coyotes ($58.6 million).  Within that salary structure, defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is, at a $5.5 million cap hit through next season, manageable at worst and a bargain at best.  The 26-year old, a former sixth-overall draft pick of the Coyotes (2009), has already played in 530 regular season games in an eight-year career.  He has been durable, missing only 12 games in seven seasons as a full-time player, and he has been productive.  In those seven seasons as a full time player, he ranks fifth among defensemen in goals scored and 16^th in total points.  He also has the misfortune to have played for a team that struggled, reflected in his minus-70 in those seasons, tied for third-worst among 93 defensemen who played in 400 or more games in those seven seasons.   Ekman-Larsson has been in a scoring rut lately, having an eight-game streak without a point just broken with an assist in a 3-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday.  In ten career games against Washington, Ekman-Larsson is 2-4-6, even.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and John Carlson have been around for a while.  It would be no surprise that among current Capitals, those three top the list of current Caps who have faced the Coyotes the most in a Capitals uniform.  What might be surprising is that Tom Wilson is fourth on that list, having played nine games against Arizona.  Except for his seven points in nine games against the Chicago Blackhawks, Wilson’s four points against the Coyotes in those nine games is tied for his second-highest total against a Western Conference team.  Half of that point total is the result of a 1-1-2 effort in a 6-5 loss to the Coyotes on November 2, 2014, and he has only one assist in three career games against the Coyotes in Arizona.  He has been coming on lately, though.  In his last eight games he is 3-5-8, plus-9.  But it has been entirely a home performance for Wilson.  In those eight games he is 0-0-0, even, in three road games.  He is 1-3-4, minus-1, in nine career games against the Coyotes.

In the end…

On paper, this is a game the Caps could, should, and will win.  Arizona’s leading goal scorer, Clayton Keller (12), would rank second on the Caps, but there is not another Coyote in double figures (the Caps have four such players).  Keller has 26 points, and that would be tied for fourth on the Caps with John Carlson, but no other Coyote has more than 20 points (the Caps have five).  Braden Holtby (should he get the call in the first of a back-to-back) has allowed 20 goals in eight games in the month of December.  Arizona has allowed 21 goals in its last six games, all losses in regulation.  And if the Caps need a bit more incentive, there is that 6-3 whacking the Coyotes applied last March 31^st in Glendale, jumping out to a 3-0 lead barely 13 minutes into the game and coasting in from there.  Except for that wild 8-7 overtime loss to the Penguins in January last season, it was the most goals the Caps allowed in a game over the 2016-2017 season.

The Coyotes are having a hard time of it this season, but no NHL team is a pushover.  The moment you show one disrespect, or look ahead to the next opponent or holiday shopping, it will come back to haunt you.  But the Caps are healthy again. They’re hot.  You would think they would want to finish the pre-Christmas portion of the season on a jolly note.  This will help.

Capitals 6 – Coyotes 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Stars, December 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head out on the road for what will be their longest absence from Capital One Arena this season to date when they open a four-game road trip against the Dallas Stars in Big D on Tuesday night.  The Caps have alternated wins and losses in their last four road contests, all of the decisions of a multi-goal variety, losing a 6-2 decision to the Colorado Avalanche and a 3-1 decision to the New York Islanders, while defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-2, and the Boston Bruins, 5-3, in what was their last road game last Thursday.  Overall, the Caps bring a three-game winning streak into this contest and are winners of seven of their last eight contests, taking over the top spot in the Metropolitan Division through games on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Stars are returning home after a 2-1-1 road trip.  On home ice, though, they have been slipping.  Dallas has allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games at American Airlines Center, and while they have split those four games, they allowed five goals in each of their last two home games, both of them losses.

Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are tied for the team lead in overall scoring at 29 points apiece.  It is hardly unfamiliar territory for either of them.  Seguin has recorded more than 70 points in each of the last four seasons before this one, averaging 33 goals and 43 assists.  He is on a pace to finish 34-36-70 this season.  He has been productive and consistent, one of only five players over the four seasons preceding this one to record at least 120 goals and 160 assists (Seguin has 133 goals and 173 assists over that span). He has been especially productive at home this season, where he is 9-8-17, plus-7, in 14 home games compared to 5-7-12, minus-11, in 20 road contests.  In 19 career games against the Caps, Seguin is 8-5-13, plus-5.

That group of five players over the four seasons preceding this one to record at least 120 goals and 160 assists also includes Jamie Benn, who has 136 goals and 188 assists over that same span.  Benn, the Art Ross Trophy winner as the league’s top point-getter in 2014-2015, is one of only three players to top 80 points at least twice over the last four seasons, doing it in 2014-2015 (35-52-87) and in 2015-2016 (41-48-89).  Patrick Kane (twice) and Sidney Crosby (four times) are the others to top 80 points in at least two of the last four seasons.  He has been a bit more consistent in his home/road splits than has Seguin so far this season, at least of a per game basis.  Benn is 5-6-11, plus-2, in 14 home games, and he is 8-10-18, minus-1, in 20 road games so far this season.  He is 4-7-11, plus-10, in 11 career games against the Caps.

Since the beginning of the 2014-2015 season, three defensemen have posted more than 30 goals, more than 120 assists, more than 150 points, and are better than plus-30.  That group includes Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty, Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman, and Dallas’ John Klingberg (if you are wondering, Erik Karlsson would be in that group but for his “even” plus-minus rating).  Klingberg might be the best offensive defenseman no one, or at least among casual hockey fans, has heard of.  He has been a very effective power play quarterback in his four seasons with the Stars, going 9-50-59 on the man advantage, 14^th in power play points among defensemen over the past four seasons.  The odd thing this season for Klingberg, though, is that he does not have a power play assist – a power play point – since Game 15 on November 6^th in a 4-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets.  In five career games against the Caps, Klingberg is 0-5-5, plus-1.

1.  Dallas has a couple of well-known names in net in Ben Bishop and Kari Lehtonen, but their performance could use some improvement.  Bishop ranks 26^th among 49 goalies with at least 500 minutes in goals against average (2.71) and 28^th in save percentage (.910).  Lehtonen ranks 15^th in GAA (2.59) and 32^nd in save percentage (.907) in that group.

2.  It should be no surprise to anyone who has followed the career of head coach Ken Hitchcock that the Stars are stingy allowing shots on goal.  The 29.6 shots on goal allowed per game is second-fewest in the league (Carolina: 29.5).  This is what Hitchcock-coached teams do.

3.  The Stars do shoot themselves in the foot sometimes by wandering outside the rules.  They have been charged with 152 penalties through games on Sunday, third-most in the league.  Only five teams have found themselves shorthanded more often than the Stars (123 times).

4.  On the other side, Dallas has had only 101 power play opportunities so far this season.  Only five teams have had fewer, and four of them have played fewer games.  Only Edmonton has had fewer power play chances at home (45) than Dallas (48).

5.  Dallas is a very good, very consistent possession team.  They are one of four teams in the league whose shot attempts-for percentage is 50 percent or better in five different situation categories: overall (52.84), ahead (50.00), behind (55.97), tied (52.89), and close (52.85).  Calgary, Boston, and St. Louis are the other teams who fit that description.

1.  If Dallas has a problem playing inside the boundaries of the rule book, so do the Caps.  They are tied for fourth in total penalties taken (151, one behind Dallas), and their 10:45 in penalty minutes per game is fourth-most in the league. The Caps’ 13:48 per game in penalty minutes in road games is second-most in the league (Nashville has 17:25 per game).

2.  The Caps are going to want to turn around their fortunes on special teams.  They are 1-for-11 on the man advantage over their last five games (9.1 percent), lack of opportunity and efficiency being the problems.  They have allowed three goals on their last six shorthanded situations over their last two games.

3.  If Dallas is stingy with shots, the Caps are successful when being the victim of stinginess, their 12 wins when being out-shot in games topped by only four other teams: Minnesota (13), Nashville (14), New Jersey (14), and Toronto (15).

4.  The win over Anaheim when trailing after two periods on Saturday night was the second time this season that the Caps won a game when trailing after two periods.  The other time was Opening Night, when they trailed the Ottawa Senators, 2-1, entering the third period.  They won, 5-4, in a Gimmick.  Still, their 2-10-0 record when trailing after 40 minutes ranks tied for 11^th in winning percentage (.167).  Coming back in third periods is hard; Vegas has the best winning percentage in such games at just .400 (4-5-1).

5.  The Caps do have some talent in coming back when scored on first, though.  Their .412 winning percentage in such games (7-10-0) is tied for fifth-best in the league.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Alex Radulov

Alex Radulov is one of the more interesting stories in the NHL.  A 15th overall draft pick in 2004 by the Nashville Predators, he spent parts of three stormy years with the Preds, scoring 47 goals in 154 games.  “Parts” of three seasons fits, because he played only nine games of that third season, in 2011-2012.  And that was just the end of it. In 2008 he was suspended by the Preds without pay after signing a contract with Salavat Yulalev Ufa of the KHL with one year remaining on his entry level contract.  He returned to Nashville after the 2011-2012 KHL season and skated with the Predators for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs.  However, in the postseason he would be suspended by the club again (with teammate Andrei Kostitsyn) for violating a team curfew.  That would mark the end with the Predators, who did not re-sign Radulov at the end of the season.

He departed once more for the KHL, signing with CSKA Moscow, but after four seasons there returned to the NHL as a free agent with the Montreal Canadiens last season, with whom he went 18-36-54 in 76 games.  Again a free agent, he signed with Dallas last July, and he has been a very productive player for the Stars.  Radulov is third on the club in goals (11), tied for second in assists (16), and is tied for third in points.  He has goals in two of his last three games after going four games without a point.  In four career games against the Caps, Radulov is 1-1-2, minus-2.

Washington: John Carlson

Above, we noted that John Klingberg was one of three defensemen who over the past four seasons posted more than 30 goals, more than 120 assists, more than 150 points, and are better than plus-30.  If we had just said “at least plus-30,” the group would have included John Carlson, who also has 32 goals, 124 assists, and 156 points over that span to make it a foursome.  With a 3-22-25 scoring line so far this season, Carlson is on a pace that would give him his first career 60-point season (he had 55 points in 2014-2015).  And he has been able to achieve this while struggling a bit shooting the puck.  He has three goals on 99 shots so far this season, his 3.0 shooting percentage a career low at the moment. 

Carlson’s points have mattered this season, the Caps going 15-4-1 in games in which he recorded a point, 6-8-0 when he did not.  Washington has three wins in the three games in which Carlson had a goal, but all of those games were on home ice.  It is part of a distinct home/road split in his production, going 3-12-15, plus-6, in 19 home games while going 0-10-10, minus-10, in 15 road games.  In ten career games against the Stars, Carlson is 1-2-3, minus-6.

In the end…

Maybe it’s an aversion to brisket or perhaps Stetson hats, but Dallas does not agree with the Capitals.  Since the Minnesota North Stars moved to Texas in in 1993-1994 season, the Caps are 4-12-1 in 17 games in the Lone Star State.  They have not beaten the Stars in regulation on their ice since they took a 4-3 decision on October 17, 1995.  That remains the only time that the Caps beat Dallas in Texas in regulation time in this “rivalry.”  If there is a silver lining in this cloud, it is that the Caps took a 4-3 overtime decision in their last visit to Dallas, last January 21^st, coming back from a 3-1 third period deficit to force overtime before Jay Beagle won it just 19 seconds into the extra frame. 

OK, so law of averages, regression to the mean, change of fortune, dumb luck.  The history has to take a new road sometime.  Why not start now?

Capitals 3 – Stars 2