Washington Capitals 2021-2022 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“Appreciation is a wonderful thing: It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well.”
-- Voltaire

 

Are there really any adjectives or accolades left to apply to Alex Ovechkin?  If you can find them, good on you, but it won’t be an easy task.  He is the ne plus ultra goal scorer of this generation.  Since coming into the league, he has 730 career goals.  No other player in the 16 seasons Ovechkin has been in the league has as many as 500.  Only six other players have as many as 400.  To put this in perspective, Ovechkin could have sat out the last five seasons and still have a 39-goal lead on his closest pursuer (525 goals to 486 for Sidney Crosby.

Goal scoring is not the only dimension to his game, though.  Over those same 16 seasons, Ovechkin ranks ninth in assists (590) and is one of only two non-centers (Patrick Kane being the other with 684 assists) among the top 13-assist producers in that period.  As a result, Ovechkin ranks fifth in points-per-game recorded over those 16 seasons (1.10) and is tops among non-centers.

Odd Ovechkin Fact… Alex Ovechkin had three shorthanded goals in his rookie season in 2005-2006. He had another in 2008-2009.  Since then, he has none in his last 914 games.

Odd Ovechkin Fact II… Since 2005-2006, Alex Ovechkin has 27 hat tricks.  That is more than the combined total of hat tricks for the other 12 Capitals to record at least one in that period (21).

Fearless’ Take… One could be tempted to say that Ovechkin had an off-year in 2020-2021.  These things are relative, though.  Despite the 24 goals being the lowest for a season for his career, his 1.30 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, sixth best of his career, still ranked 12^th in the league among 607 players appearing in at least 25 games.  His 0.53 goals per game ranked eighth in that same group.  Perhaps it is a signal of diminished production, by his standards, but last season was unusual in its abbreviated schedule and Ovechkin’s missing time to COVID protocol early on and injuries late in the season.

Cheerless’ Take… The 2020-2021 season was sort of a lost one for Ovechkin, who played in the fewest games of his career (45), recorded his lowest goal total (24), posted his lowest assist total (18), finished with his lowest point total (42), had his second-lowest power play goal total (nine), had his lowest shot total (182), had his second-lowest ice time per game (19:30), and did not have a game-winning goal in his last 16 contests. Yes, it was an abbreviated schedule, but despite advancing up the ranks in a number of career scoring categories, it was not among the most memorable of years for Ovechkin.  Is a comeback season coming?  One would like to think so, but then again, he is 36 years old, and perhaps cracks are starting to appear in his game.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021…

• 1,200 career games played (currently 1,197)
• 600 career assists (590)
• 1,400 career points (1,320)
• 6,000 career shots on goal (5,727)
• 500 career power play points (499)
• 30 career hat tricks (27)
• 400 career multi-point games (373)

The Big Question… Will the “Gretzky Chase” contract serve as inspiration for a big season from Alex Ovechkin?

In late July, Alex Ovechkin signed a five-year, $47.5 million contract that all but ensures he will finish his NHL career where he started, in Washington.  The cap hit of $9.5 million is a slight reduction from his expiring contract ($9.538 million), but what matters in a broader career sense is the term.  Ovechkin, with 730 career goals, is 165 goals away from overtaking Wayne Gretzky as the league’s all-time leading goal scorer.  A five-year term means he needs to average 33 goals per season to reach that goal.  Only once in 14 seasons with a full schedule of games did he post fewer – 32 goals in the 2010-2011 season.  The effects of age on players and expectations of diminished production, even for a player as uniquely durable and productive as Ovechkin has been over time, a big 2021-2022 season would go a long way toward improving the odds he overtakes Gretzky down the road.  In this respect, a 40-plus goal season will be something to look for in his chase for hockey immortality.

In the end…

Although Alex Ovechkin did not have an impressive year in 2020-2021, by his standards, let us not forget his is only one season removed from winning his third consecutive Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer.  Perhaps last season was a crossroads, perhaps it was just a speed bump in his progress up the rankings in a number of statistical categories.  But on a purely individual level, it is all about chasing Wayne Gretzky.  One hopes that the pursuit doesn’t distract the team from its pursuit of a Stanley Cup, but with Nicklas Backstrom on the shelf while undergoing hip injury rehabilitation, Ovechkin’s goal scoring is not a selfish pursuit.  It will take on more importance in the context of team goals, especially early in the season.  But when all is said and done, he is owed a large measure of appreciation for his relentless consistency and elite production in more than a decade and a half playing at the pinnacle of his sport.  Something of which all of Capitals Nation can take some ownership.

Projection: 81 games, 46-32-78, minus-3

 

Washington Capitals 2021-2022 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success.”
-- Paul “Bear” Bryant

If T.J. Oshie is not part of the “core” of the Washington Capitals roster, he is a cornerstone, an element that serves as a reference point for the structure.  He has been a fixture at right wing, either on the top line or second line, since his arrival from The St. Louis Blues in 2015, in a deal that seemed rather balanced at the time, an exchange of similar right wings, Oshie coming to Washington for Troy Brouwer (with goalie Pheonix Copley, and a draft pick).  But where Brouwer went 50-58-108, minus-21, in 320 games with three teams over five seasons after leaving Washington, Oshie went 128-129-257, plus-55, in 360 games over those same five seasons before adding a 22-21-43, minus-3 scoring line last season (Brouwer did not play in the NHL last season).

Odd Oshie Fact… As noted, T.J. Oshie came to Washington in a trade with St. Louis for Troy Brouwer, Pheonix Copley and a draft pick.  Copley eventually returned to Washington in a trade (with Kevin Shattenkirk) with the Blues, and the draft pick eventually made its way back to Washington, the Capitals selecting Garrett Pilon in the third round of the 2016 Entry Draft.

Odd Oshie Fact II… In six seasons in Washington, Oshie has 150 goals and 150 assists).

Fearless’ Take… T.J. Oshie has become both a prolific producer on offense and a consistent one.  Only once in his six seasons in Washington has he averaged fewer than one goal per 60 minutes over a season (0.8 in 2017-2018), and he averaged at least one assist per 60 minutes in each of his six seasons with the Caps.  In gross terms, only twice in six seasons did he finish with fewer than 25 goals, and one of those was in last year’s abbreviated season (22 in 53 games, a 34-goal pace over 82 games).  Oshie is also one of five players in Caps history to have appeared in fewer than 450 games with the team and post a rating of plus-50 or better (Alan Haworth, Eric Fehr, Jeff Schultz, and Matt Niskanen are the others. 

Cheerless’ Take… Oshie will be 35 years old in December.  He plays bigger than a player of his size.  He can’t keep this up forever.  He’s going to start missing games (he has missed 40 of 453 games in six seasons).  His contract is going to be a liability (he has completed four years of an eight-year deal).  Don’t we do this every year with Oshie?  He could start to break down, or his production could just wane naturally (like the use of “wane” there, cuz?).  But he just keeps plugging.  The thing is though, the Caps cannot afford this season being that turning point in his production or durability.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021…

• 900 career NHL games (currently 856)
• 200 career power play points (182)
• 100 power play points with the Caps (91)
• With 32 goals, Oshie would jump into 11^th place in goal scoring in Caps history, passing Kelly Miller (162), Michal Pivonka (181), and Dale Hunter (181)

The Big Question… Will T.J. Oshie post a career-high in goals in 2021-2022?

In the last three seasons, Oshie has averaged 29.7, 30.9, and 34.0 goals per 82 games.  He posted a career-high 33 goals in 2016-2017.  He has been a remarkably efficient shooter, posting a 17.9 percent shooting percentage in six years with the Caps, second among 467 skaters appearing in at least 250 games over that period (Paul Byron leads with 18.0 percent).  You would think that goal scoring would be more impactful (the Caps were 10-5-2 in games in which Oshie scored a goal last season; 15-5-2 the previous season), but that goal scoring could become an important factor if the Caps do not get consistent production elsewhere in their top six (Anthony Mantha, we’re looking at you).

In the end…

Chances are that T.J. Oshie is not regarded with the same respect outside of Capitals Nation that, say, an Alex Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom command.  In the Caps community, however, Oshie has to be considered among the biggest fan favorites.  This is not a “Mr. Congenialty” award, either.  Hockey fans appreciate hockey players, with all the attributes that term implies – productive on the ice, durable, dependable, clutch, a “stand-up” player who will go into the tough areas to produce, a player who leads by example, and a generally good guy who is a positive influence in the community off the ice.  Oshie has been that for six seasons in Washington, and even though predictions of his imminent diminishing of his production has become something of a perennial concern, he has toughed his way through that, and until it happens, it makes little sense it will come true this season.

Projection: 78 games, 31-25-56, plus-1

 

Washington Capitals 2021-2022 Previews -- Forwards: Anthony Mantha

Anthony Mantha

“For last year's words belong to last year's language. And next year's words await another voice.”
— T.S. Eliot

The scouting report from TSN.ca on Anthony Mantha reads as follows: 

• Assets:  Is a natural goal-scoring talent with great size and instincts for putting the biscuit in the basket. For a big winger, he skates very well, too. Displays great hand/eye coordination. Can play either wing position.
• Flaws:  Needs to work on his play at the defensive end of the rink, as well as his game-to-game consistency, in order to maximize production at the National Hockey League level. Takes a few too many shifts off.
• Career potential:  Big, goal-scoring winger with upside.

Short version…lots of talent, but inconsistent.  In his first four seasons with the Detroit Red Wings, his career arc looked promising, his goals per game rising with each season until he finished the 2018-2019 season 25-23-48.  He maintained a 0.37 goals per game in his fifth season and set a career high 0.88 points per game, but he was held to only 43 games played due to a series of injuries.  Last season he managed 11 goals and 21 points in 42 games with the Red Wings before he was shipped to the Caps for Jakub Vrana and a pair of draft picks, a trade that had the look of exchanging players who just didn’t seem to be playing up to their potential that a change in scenery might cure.

Odd Mantha Fact… Last season was the first of his six NHL seasons that Anthony Mantha failed to record a game-winning goal.

Odd Mantha Fact II… Mantha recorded goals in 15 games last season with Detroit and Washington.  His teams went just 7-6-2 in those games.

Fearless’ Take… Anthony Mantha has all the tools – size, good scoring instincts, decent skating.  He grew more inconsistent as time wore on in Detroit, a team that has struggled mightily I recent years.  Perhaps the team’s misfortune denied him sufficient inspiration to fully express his skills on a night-to-night basis.  He certainly gave fans a glimpse of the possibilities last season when he scored goals in each of his first four games and posting a 4-2-6 scoring line in his first six games with the Caps after arriving from Detroit. 

Cheerless’ Take… Yeah, cuz, and after that hot start, Mantha went 0-2-2 in his last eight regular season games and 0-2-2 in five postseason games.  And it was not as if he was getting his ice time pared back; he averaged more than 18 minutes in those last eight regular season games and more than 17 minutes in the postseason.  And for a player built as sturdy as he is (6’5”/234), he has missed a lot of time to injuries. Only once has he dressed for more than 70 games in a season, although he did appear in all 56 games last season, split between the Caps and Red Wings.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021…

• 100 career goals (currently 99)
• 200 career penalty minutes (196)

The Big Question… Will featuring Anthony Mantha on a scoring line, with as much talent as he will have around him, lead to more consistency in his production?

Mantha has the talent to be a 20-plus goal scorer, perhaps a 30-plus goal scorer, but he has shown that only in spurts in his six-year career to date.  He can play on either side, but with Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie slotted in the top-two right wing positions, it would seem Mantha will get a look at second-line left wing behind Alex Ovechkin.  This likely means getting a lot of quality time working with Nicklas Backstrom, whose ability to find teammates in high scoring areas is almost, if not unmatched in the league.  Players have slumps, especially over a long season, but “slump” and “inconsistency” are not necessarily synonymous.  Mantha is in a situation where he can conquer the latter. 

In the end…

Anthony Mantha is entering the chronological prime of his career (he just turned 27 years of age).  He will be skating in an offense-friendly environment with veterans who have had varied and accomplished careers to date.  There is little pressure on him, save the thought, “don’t suck.”  He is that player one speaks of when they talk about benefitting from a change of scenery, especially when the departure is from a struggling franchise.  He does not have to be a lights-out, 35-goal scorer, but posting fewer than 20 could be reasonably regarded as a disappointment. 

Projection: 79 games, 20-22-42, even