The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 52: Capitals at Flyers, February 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off a 4-1 win over the Nashville Predators on their current four-game road swing, the Washington Capitals head to Philadelphia to face the Flyers in Game 2 of the four-game road trip.  The Caps head into this game on a four-game road winning streak, while the Flyers go into the contest with a 2-5-2 record in their last nine home games.

The Flyers lack high-end offensive production – only one Flyer ranks in the top-50 in goals scored (Cam Atkinson tied for 49^th with 17) and no Flyer ranks in the top 60 in points (Atkinson and Claude Giroux are tied for 64^th with 37 points).  They do have balance, though.  Fourteen skaters have double digits in points, five of them defensemen.

Ivan Provorov leads the Flyers defense in goals (five), is tied for the lead in assists (13), and leads in total points (18).  Oddly enough, this is not one of Provorov’s best seasons.  His 0.3 goals per 60 minutes ranks fourth in his six seasons in the league.  His 0.7 assists per 60 minutes ranks fifth.  His 1.0 points per 60 minutes rank fifth as well.  His 4.4 shots on goal per 60 minutes ranks fifth (source: hockey-reference.com).  This despite his averaging 25:07 in ice time per game, a career high.  What might be disturbing about his performance to date, which by the way is hardly the biggest problem this team has, is that his underperformance has been consistent by venue.  Provorov is 2-7-9, minus-3, in 21 home games and 3-6-9, minus-2, in 24 road games.  He has ten minutes of penalties at home and ten on the road.  He is averaging 25:09 in ice time at home, 25:06 in ice time on the road.  His offensive performance has improved of late, though.  After a four-game streak without a point and a minus-6 rating in mid-January, he is 1-3-4, plus-4, in his last eight games.  Provorov is 4-6-10, plus-8, in 25 career games against Washington.

Despite the difficulties this year’s Flyers team has had, they don’t do rookies.  Seven rookie skaters have dressed for the Flyers this season, but with just a combined 59 man-games played.  Forward Morgan Frost has appeared in 27 of them.  And while he is technically a “rookie,” this is his third NHL season.  The 27^th overall pick of the 2017 Entry Draft appeared in 20 games in 2019-2020 and in two games last season.  His two goals and five assists match his offensive production in that first season.  And his is a strange production profile.  He has two goals, both in Flyer losses.  He has seven points, the Flyers with a 2-4-1 record in those games.  He has skated at least 14 minutes in ten games, and the Flyers are 1-8-1 in those games.  He has shots on goal in 18 games, and the Flyers are 2-13-3 in those games.  The Flyers are 2-10-4 in the last 16 games in which he played, but they are 2-0-1 in the last three. If he plays, he will be looking for his first goal on home ice of his career spanning 24 games over his three seasons.  Frost is without a point and has an “even” rating in his only career appearance against the Caps.

Chicken or egg.  Which came first?  Lack of talent in front of him, or his talent overrated?  This is the conundrum that is Carter Hart in goal for the Flyers.  Among 40 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played this season, Hart ranks 29^th in goals against average (3.96) and 24^th in save percentage (.910).  But here might be the most alarming statistic of all, one that points to a lack of talent (or “give a f***”) in front of him.  Hart is 6-0-0 in the six games in which he allowed one or no goals this season.  He is 3-17-6 in the 26 games in which he allowed more than one goal (3-11-4, one no decision, in that intermediate area in which he allowed two or three goals).  He is getting almost no goal support.  Hart has been consistent in one respect.  He has not been blown out often.  He allowed four or more goals seven times this season in 32 appearances (0-5-2 in those decisions), which is tied for 24^th in the league.  He has been more successful at home on a win-loss basis (6-9-3 at home, 3-7-3 on the road), but his underlying numbers are consistent (2.97/.907 at home, 2.94/.913 on the road).  He goes into this game having allowed five goals in two of his last three games, all of them losses (0-2-1). Hart is 2-3-1, 2.89, .907 in six career games against the Capitals.

1.  Philadelphia has the second-worst winning percentage in the league when trailing first in games (.111/3-21-3).  They are tied for fifth-most instances in trailing first in games (27 times).

2.  In 54 seasons, this Flyers team ranks 51^st in penalties taken per 60 minutes (3.64), a far dry from the Broad Street Bullies days.

3. The Flyers have allowed six shorthanded goals this season, tied for fourth-most in the league.  They also have scored six shorthanded goals, tied for third-most in the league (with, among others, the Caps).

4.  Philadelphia has six wins when out-shot by opponents, tied for fourth-fewest in the league.

5.  The Flyers have lost 16 games this season by three or more goals, tied for second-most in the league (Montreal: 23).

1.  Washington has scored first in 34 games this season, most in the league and four more than Colorado and Vegas.  Unfortunately, their winning percentage in those games (.618/21-9-4) ranks 23^rd.

2.  The Caps have been docked 7:07 in penalty minutes per game, third-fewest in the league.

3.  Washington has allowed seven shorthanded goals this season, second-most in the league (New Jersey: 8).

4.  The Capitals have 13 empty net goals this season.  Only Pittsburgh has more (14).

5.  No team has taken more faceoffs than the Caps this season (2.926) and no team has lost more faceoffs than the Caps (1,553).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Claude Giroux

Will he, or won’t he?  Be a Flyer at the end of the regular season, that is.  That is the question that follows Claude Giroux around these days.  Only Bobby Clarke has pulled on the Flyers jersey for more games (1,144) than Giroux (988) in team history.  He ranks ninth in goals (289), second in assists (606), second in points (895), eighth in power play goals (84), first in power play points (338), first in overtime goals (11), seventh in game-winning goals (46), first in takeaways since 2005-2006 (513), first among forwards since 2005-2006 in blocked shots (396), and first in faceoff winning percentage since 1997-1998 (55.7 percent; minimum: 100 faceoffs). His imprint on the Flyers' record book is bold and broad.

Giroux is still a productive player at age 34, despite the problems the team around him has.  His 1.1 goals per 60 minutes is his best since 1.2 goals per 60 minutes in 2017-2018), he is still averaging at least 1.5 assists per 60 minutes (12^th consecutive season doing so) and at least 2.5 points per 60 minutes, despite the problems the team around him is having.  He is winning faceoffs at a 60.8 percent clip, a career best (fourth-best in the league this season among 193 players taking at least 100 draws).  He has more than twice as many first goals in games (seven) than any other Flyer (James van Riemsdyk has three).  Odd Giroux fact… despite having 16 goals, second-most on the team this season, none of them are game-winners.  He is one of three players in the league with at least 16 goals and none of them game-winners (Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen (24 goals) and Buffalo’s Tage Thompson (16) are the others).  Giroux is 23-26-49, plus-6, in 54 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Carl Hagelin

Not to the degree Giroux has experienced lately, but there are questions about whether Carl Hagelin will be a Capital at year-end, or if he will be part of a deal to upgrade the roster or get younger in the role he plays in advance of the playoffs.  It has been a frustrating year for Hagelin in the offensive end of the ice, where he just cannot seem to find the back of the net.  His 4.5 percent shooting (three goals on 67 shots) is his worst in four seasons with the Caps. It is unfortunate for him and for the Caps, who are 3-0-0 in the three games in which he has goals and 7-2-1 in the ten games in which he has points.  What is worse, at least in the context of this game, is that while he has been a reasonably consistent performer, home versus road, in his career (55-99-154, plus-48, in 361 home games; 55-85-140, plus-67, in 348 road games), he is just 1-3-4, plus-5, in 23 road games this season, while he is 2-6-8, plus-1, in 26 home games.  Ice time seems not to matter much in terms of the effect of his performance on wins and losses.  The Caps are 14-6-4 in the 24 games in which he skated at least 14 minutes, 12-8-5 in the 25 games in which he logged fewer than 14 minutes.  Hagelin has picked up his point production of late.  After going through an 11-game streak without a point starting on New year’s Eve, he is 1-4-5, plus-3, in his last six games overall.  And, he will be looking to extend his current streak of points in road games to four against the Flyers.  Hagelin is 5-13-18, plus-16, in 45 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

Good teams put bad teams away, so this will be a test in that regard to assess whether the Caps are “good” team once more.  They have done a good job being just that at Wells Fargo Arena, where they are 7-1-0 in their last eight visits, outscoring the Flyers, 32-20.  The Flyers are further hamstrung by having so many key pieces on the injured reserve list (see the table above).  That the Caps would have a better record on the road (15-5-4, their .708 points percentage ranked second in the league) than at home (12-10-5, the .537 points percentage ranked 21^st) is one the stranger story lines this season, but it would be welcome if the Caps were to extend their road success to a fifth-straight win.

Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 51: Capitals at Predators, February 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open a four-game road trip when they visit Bridgestone Arena in Nashville to face the Predators on Tuesday night.  The Caps might be thankful for the travel, given their five straight losses on home ice.  On the other hand, they are 4-1-0 in their last five road games.

The Predators head into this contest having lost three of their last four games overall (1-2-1) but winners of three of their last four home games.  The Preds are a team that, while not having an especially dominating offense (3.08 goals per game/14^th in scoring offense), does have decent balance in their production.  Seven Predators have reached double digits in goals scored, led by Filip Forsberg with 24.  Forsberg is well-known among Capitals fans as one of two first round picks in the 2012 Entry Draft, the 11^th overall pick.  He was traded by the Caps to Nashville in April 2013 for Martin Erat and Michael Latta.  Erat and Latta played in a combined 175 regular season games for the Caps, posting a combined scoring line of 6-38-44, plus-5. 

On the other side of the deal, Forsberg will probably become the leading goal scorer in franchise history this season (he has 202 to David Legwand’s 210).  He is fifth in team history in points (425) and could pass Shea Weber for fourth place by year’s end (443).  Of 140 players to dress for at least 50 games as a Predator, Forsberg ranks fifth in points per game (0.80).  He ranks second in power play goals in team history (52) and sixth in power play points (123).  With eight overtime goals as a Predator, he needs one to tie Legwand for the top spot in team history, and with 39 game-winning goals he needs two to tie Legwand for the top spot in that category.  By season’s end he could become the tenth player in team history to log 10,000 minutes for the club (he has 9,530 minutes).  And this year might be his best yet.  He is averaging a career high 2.3 goals per 60 minutes and a career high 3.8 points per 60 minutes.  His 0.69 goals per game is more than 50 percent higher than his next best season (0.44 in 2018-2019), while his 1.14 points per game is the first time in his ten-year career he averaged more than a point per game.  He has 12 multi-point games among the 35 he has played this season and is 10-7-17, plus-6, since January 1^st.  Forsberg is 8-8-16, plus-8, in 12 career games against the Caps.

It took Matt Duchene a while to warm up to Nashville after signing with the Predators as a free agent in July 2019, but he has had a superb year so far this season.  His 23 goals in 44 games to date (second on the club) exceed the 19 in 100 games he posted over his first two seasons in Nashville.  His 43 points in 44 games top the 42 points he posted in 66 games in 2019-2020, his first season with the Predators.  His team-leading ten power play goals is the first time he reached double digits in that category since he recorded ten as a rookie with the Colorado Avalanche in 2009-2010.  Duchene also has three overtime goals, most on the team, and five game-winning goals (second).  If there has been an odd aspect to Duchene’s game this season, it is in his home-road splits.  He has been a more productive player on the road, where he is 14-11-25 in 23 games with a 22.6 shooting percentage.  At home, he is 9-9-18 in 21 games and shooting 13.4 percent.  He has ramped up his game a bit on home ice of late, though.  Over his last 15 home games he is 7-9-16, and the Preds are 10-5-0 over those 15 games.  Duchene has faced the Caps 18 times in his career and was a “minus” player in 12 of them, a “plus” player only twice.  His career minus-14 against the Caps is his worst against any team in the league, and he has a scoring line of 2-4-6 in those 18 career games against Washington.

Nashville has dressed seven rookie skaters so far this season, and three of them have appeared in more than 40 games – Tanner Jeannot, Alexandre Carrier, and Philip Tomasino.  Jeannot is the leader in the Nashville rookie class with 48 games played and a 14-14-28, plus-8, scoring line.  Nicknamed the “Oxbow Ox” for having been born in Oxbow, Saskatchewan, and for his physical edge, he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Predators in April 2018.  He is tied for the league lead among rookies in goals (14, with Toronto’s Michael Bunting), ninth in assists (14), sixth in points (28), seventh in plus-minus (plus-8), and tied for second in game-winning goals (three).  He has a healthy lead in credited hits among rookies (159, 26 more than the Caps’ Martin Fehervary) and in penalty minutes (87, 19 more than Montreal’s Michael Pezzetta).  No rookie has taken more penalties than Jeannot (26) or more major penalties (nine), and his net penalties (those drawn less those taken) of minus-9 is worst in the league.  Not that his propensity for taking penalties has hurt the Nashville cause much; the Predators are 13-6-2 in the 21 games in which he logged penalty minutes. Jeannot is 0-1-1, even, in his only career appearance against Washington.

1.  Filip Forsberg has five game-winning goals in 18 home games so far.

2.  No team has allowed fewer first period goals on home ice than Nashville (11, tied with Anaheim).

3.  The Predators have allowed the third-fewest goals at 5-on-5 in the league (30).

4.  Nashville is one of three teams in the league (Florida and Edmonton being the others) not to have lost a game in extra time on home ice this season.

5.  The Predators are the only team in the league to have dressed three rookies for more than 40 games.

1.  In the Caps’ 4-1-0 record over their last five road games, two came by shutout – 2-0 over the New York Islanders on January 15^th and 5-0 over the Dallas Stars on January 28^th.

2.  If the Caps are to win, a two-goal margin seems more likely than others.  The Caps are 6-0 in two-goal decisions on the road this season.

3.  On the other hand, if the result is a one-goal decision, the Caps have not fared well in such circumstances, going 3-3-4 in one-goal games.

4.  Only three teams have taken fewer penalty minutes on the road than the Caps (158) – Dallas (157), Edmonton (153), and Pittsburgh (148).

5.  The Caps and the Penguins are the only teams in the league that have not been assessed a major penalty in a road game this season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Roman Josi

Roman Josi is on a short list of most productive defensemen on offense in the league.  And, he has been doing it for quite a while.  Since 2013-2014, when he went 13-27-40 in 72 games to post his first career 40-point season, he has eight 40-plus point seasons in nine years (he was 8-25-33 in 48 games last season).  Over those nine seasons he ranks second in goals scored among defensemen (120, to Brent Burns’ 146), sixth in assists (339), fifth in points (459), fifth in power play goals (40), tied for eighth in power play points (161), and tied for fifth in game-winning goals (22).  He has also been a leader in categories that get less attention, such as blocked shots (eighth with 1,191) and on-ice goals for at even strength (613, tied for fifth with the Caps’ John Carlson).  He has also been a leader in ice time, averaging 25:25 per game over those nine seasons (fifth), and he is one of three defensemen over that period to average at least 20 minutes per game at even strength, at least three minutes per game on power plays, and at least two minutes per game killing penalties (Ryan Suter and Drew Doughty are the others).  Josi has been a consistent performer by venue this season, going 6-16-22 in 22 home games and 7-18-25 in 24 road games, a split that is in line with his career numbers (home: 69-184-253 in 369 games; road: 61-179-240 in 357 games).  He has been hot lately, going 2-15-17 over his last 14 games.  Josi is 5-8-13, plus-5, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Tom Wilson

If Filip Forsberg is the cream of the crop among the 2012 draft class (first in goals (202), first in points (425), first in power play goals (52) and power play points (123), first in game-winning goals (39)), Tom Wilson can be said to have outperformed his 16^th overall selection in the same 2012 draft.  Wilson ranks sixth in goals in his draft class (106), 12^th in assists (148), sixth in points (254), tied for ninth in plus-minus (plus-41), tied for ninth in power play goals (nine), tied for fifth in shorthanded goals (six), tied for eighth in shorthanded points (nine), tied for ninth in overtime goals (two), seventh in game winning goals (17), 12^th in shooting percentage (11.6; minimum: 100 games), first in credited hits (1.838), tied for sixth in first goals scored (19), second in empty net goals (11), and tenth in takeaways (236). 

And what has emerged over the last several years is a consistency in his game.  He has averaged at least 1.0 goals per 60 minutes in each of the last four seasons, including this one, averaged at least 1.0 assists per 60 minutes in four of the last five seasons, averaged at least 2.0 points per 60 minutes in each of the last four seasons.  His 0.33 goals per game is within shouting distance of his 0.35 goals per game in 2018-2019, and his 0.72 points per game this season is a career best.  Most notably, he has done it while whittling his penalty minutes, averaging just 1.37 PIMs per game, a 32.8 percent reduction from last year’s 2.04 penalty minutes per game and tied with his 2019-2020 average for a career low.  He has taken penalties in only 14 of 46 games, although the Caps are 10-4-0 in those games.  What might be of note about his penalty minutes is that his high for a game this season came on December 29^th, when he took 19 minutes in a 5-3 win over Nashville.  Wilson is 4-1-5, minus-3, in 15 career games against the Predators. 

In the end…

The Caps are 7-2-2 over their last 11 road games.  Room service has been kinder to the Caps than home cooking over the last two months.  But Nashville has been a particularly difficult place for the Caps to play, given their 5-9-1 (with one tie) in their all-time record in Music City, including a four-game losing streak in Nashville going into this game in which the Caps allowed at least five goals in each game (outscored 24-12 in those four games). That is the fault line for the Caps on which this game rests – a good road record overall in recent weeks versus playing in a venue that has been brutal on them in recent games there.  We will go with the former as the factor that wins out, but you knew we would.

Capitals 5 – Predators 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 18

Week 18 was another iffy week in what has become a lengthy slump for the Washington Capitals.  One can see this season slowly bleeding away, and it is looking as if the Caps do not have an answer to fix their problems.

Record (1-1-0)

Week 18 makes it six weeks in a row that the Caps have not had a winning record.  Two losing weeks and four break-even weeks, including Week 18.  They were 2-0-0 in Week 12, but since then, they are 6-8-2.  The new calendar year is proving to be a long-running nightmare, the Caps going 6-8-2 from January 1^st through Week 18, tied for 23^rd in points and 25^th in points percentage over that period.  Worse, the Caps lost four straight on home ice through Week 18 and are 2-6-1 in calendar year 2022 through Saturday, tied for 25^th in points (five) and 30^th in points percentage (.278).

Offense: 4.50 / game (season: 3.24 / 11th)

Scoring goals was not a problem in Week 18, seven Caps sharing the nine goals in the two games.  Tom Wilson and Joe Snively were the two-goal scorers for the Caps for the week.  The odd part about the point distribution is in the leaders.  Evgeny Kuznetsov with three points (1-2-3) sharing the lead in points is not surprising, but Joe Snively (2-1-3) and Carl Hagelin (1-2-3) is.  All in all, the Caps did have a decent distribution of points overall, 13 skaters posting at least one.

Defense: 3.50 / game (season: 2.76 / 11th)

Strange week. The Caps allowed 44 shots allowed in one game, 26 in the other.  They were minus-21 in shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 in one game, plus-10 in the other.  They won the former and lost the latter.  Part of it might have been score effects, the Caps being minus-22 when ahead in their 5-2 win over Montreal, but still, the disparity by game was eye-popping.

Fourteen of 18 skaters dressing for the week were on ice for at least one goal against at even strength, perhaps the kind of distribution one does not want to see.  Conor Sheary was on ice for three even strength goals against, most on the team for the week.  Every defenseman to dress for the week was on ice for at least one even strength goal against.  The odd part here was in the five players to escape without an even strength goal against when on ice.  Among that group were Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, Joe Snively, Brett Leason, and Connor McMichael.  Not exactly the group one might have expected, even if Leason and McMichael averaged less than nine minutes of even strength ice time.

Goaltending: 3.52 / .900 (season: 2.56 / .908 / 6 shutouts)

There is good, bad, and ugly.  But there being only two games, the goaltending divided between good and ugly.  The good was Ilya Samsonov, who stopped 42 of 44 shots in the Caps’ 5-2 win over Montreal to close the week.  It was the third time this season that Samsonov faced more than 40 shots and his second win.  What kept his week from qualifying as excellent was allowing going 6-for-7 in 16 minutes in the Caps’ the three goals on four shots in five minutes in the Caps’ 5-4 loss to Columbus to start the week, but it was a minor blemish on one of his best weeks of the season.

The ugly was Pheonix Copley, who stopped only 15 of 19 shots (.789 save percentage) in 42 minutes in that loss to Columbus.  His has been the very good against the very bad in his two appearances for the Caps, his other being 21 saves on 22 shots (.955) in a 5-3 loss to Edmonton when he relieved an ineffective Samsonov.  Another illustration of the uneven, inconsistent goaltending the Caps have had over much of the season.

Power Play: 1-for-7 / 14.3 percent (season: 15.3 percent / 29th).

Getting seven chances on the man advantage was the good part of the week for the Caps.  Getting one goal against the 15^th ranked (Columbus) and 30^th ranked (Montreal) penalty kills was not.  Evgeny Kuznetsov had the lone power play goal, and Alex Ovechkin, who missed the Montreal game due to Canadian COVID restrictions, extended his streak of games without a power play goal to eight.  For the Caps, the week left them tied for the fifth-worst power play goal differential since January 1^st – seven power play goals for, two shorthanded against (plus-5).

Penalty Killing: 5-for-8 / 62.5 percent (season: 78.0 percent / 19th)

It might not get enough attention among the myriad problems the Caps have had over the past couple of months, but the penalty kill has been awful.  This was the second week in a row the Caps allowed three or more power play goals (7-for-14/50.0 percent combined) and extends a brutal trend.  Since January 1^st through Week 18, the Caps’ 69.6 percent penalty kill ranks 28^th in the league.

Faceoffs: 68-for-120 / 56.7 percent (46.7 percent / 30^th)

Sure, in a mediocre week, it is in the circle where the Caps had one of their best weeks of the season.  But even here, the results were uneven.  Nic Dowd was almost unbeatable in faceoffs, winning 33 of 40 draws overall (82.5 percent), winning 17 of 18 draws against Columbus and 16 of 22 against Montreal.  Of 66 instances this season in which a player took ten or more draws, his 94.4 percent win percentage against Columbus was second best of the season.  But take away Dowd’s performance, and the rest of the team was just 35-for-80 (41.8 percent), and all too typical result for the Caps this season.

Goals by Period

The best that can be said of the week in this category is that the Caps did not allow a first period goal, the only team in the league to do so.  But then there were the second periods, an issue for the Caps for most of the season, and the five goals they allowed, tied for second-most for the week.  The difference here left the Caps with a 25-goal differential in goals allowed to the bad from the first periods of games (32 goals allowed) to the second (57) for the season overall.

Year-over-Year

This year’s Caps team is slowly slipping behind last year’s squad across categories.  They are not six wins and seven standings points behind last year’s pace though 49 games.  Total scoring is down, but so are total goals allowed.  The power play continues to be a major disappointment, and the penalty kill is now moving into that sort of description. 

In the end…

The Caps are not a very good team at the moment.  In fact, you could describe them as “bad” and get little argument.  The 2022 portion of the season has been ugly, and in some respects that was true of Week 18.  There is little these days to suggest the problems are episodic, but appear to be more systemic in their nature.  Poor special teams, inconsistent goaltending, sluggishness and lackadaisical play on too many nights.  It might be that the Caps have reached a point where the solution won’t come from inside the roster, even if they return to full health.  There are just too many holes, and that does not bode well for a deep playoff run.  They have 33 games to sort this out.

Three Stars

• First Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 2.00, .955)
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-1-3, plus-4, one power play goal, five shots on goal, nine shot attempts)
• Third Star: Carl Hagelin (1-2-3, plus-2, three shots on goal, five shot attempts)