The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 44 and 45: Capitals at Flyers, January 11th/Flyers at Capitals, January 14

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have not had a lot of games against Metropolitan Division – only nine games out of 43 games played to date (6-2-1) – but the Caps return to division wars this week and wrap up a season series in the process when they play the Philadelphia Flyers in a home-and-home set of games Wednesday in Philadelphia and Saturday in Washington.

The Caps have the league’s best record since November 23^rd at 16-4-3 and are one of only two teams to be top-five in both scoring offense (3.70 goals per game/fourth) and scoring defense (2.22 goals allowed per game/second), Toronto being the other. 

On the other side, the Flyers are 9-10-3 over the same period, tied for 22^nd in the league in points over that span.  But Philadelphia is showing signs of being better lately.  After struggling in the run-up to the Christmas break with a 2-5-2 record, the Flyers are 5-1-0 since Christmas.  Only once in those six games did they score fewer than five goals, and only twice did they allow more than two. 

Center Travis Koniecny has set the pace in scoring for the Flyers in their recent run.  Over the last six games he is 6-5-11, plus-7. His six goals are tied for fifth in the league over that stretch, while his 11 points are tied with Kevin Fiala for most in the league.  Perhaps Konecny is finally settling in to being the top-notch scorer the Flyers might have envisioned when they took him as the 24^th overall pick in the 2015 Entry Draft.  It has not been that Knoecny has been a poor performer; in fact, he has been consistent.  After posting 11 goals in 70 games as a rookie in 2016-2017, he recorded three consecutive 24-goal seasons.  However, his production dipped to 27 goals in 129 games over the next two seasons coming into the 2022-2023 campaign. 

But Konecny came out of the starting gate hot this season and has not let up.  Not even missing six games to an upper-body injury in late November has been able to slow him down.  Only once in 35 games played has he gone consecutive games without a point, and he has at least one point in 28 of those 35 games.  He also has goals in 18 of those 35 games, over which the Flyers are 10-6-2.  The question regarding his scoring is whether his 18.9 shooting percentage to date (16^th among 353 skaters with at least 50 shots on goal) is sustainable.  While he had a respectable 12.1 percent shooting mark over five seasons entering this one, a correction might be in order.  In 28 career games against the Caps, Konecny is 6-5-11, minus-7.

Is in his second tour with the Flyers.  In June 2019, he was traded to the Flyers by the San Jose Sharks for a second-round draft pick in 2019 and a third-round draft pick in 2020.  He was traded to the New York Rangers in March 2022 for 1 2023 third-round draft pick, but he returned to the Flyer fold when he signed a one-year/$1.0 million contract as a free agent last July.  Braun has never been much of an offensive defenseman.  In 791 games over 12 seasons for three teams coming into this season, he had 34 goals and 197 points.  If one thing sticks out among the “numbers” about Braun, it is that he is, by far, the oldest of the eight defensemen to dress for the Flyers this season (he will be 36 in February), more than six years older than Nick Seeler.

Given his profile, one would expect that Braun would be the veteran anchor of a defensive squad where half the members are age 26 or younger.  But he has played in only 33 of 41 games this season, only one since December 22^nd.  The problem lies in part with the fact that the Flyers just have not done well with Braun in the lineup, going 12-14-7 in the 33 games in which he dressed (4-4-0 in games in which he was absent).  It has not helped his or the Flyers’ cause that through 33 games played he is still looking for his first point of the season. He is on a 37-game streak without a point dating back to last season.  In 29 career games against the Caps, Braun in 0-7-7, plus-6.

If there has been a surprise this season for the Flyers, it might be rookie winger Noah Cates.  The first surprise is that Cates – a fifth round (117^th overall) pick of the 2017 Entry Draft and the seventh player drafted by the Flyers in that draft – has appeared in every game to date.  No rookie through Monday’s games has appeared in more games.  There is also the fact that Cates is tied for eighth in points by a rookie in the league to date (17) and is tied for eighth in plus-minus rating (plus-4).  Only Seattle’s Matty Beniers has more game-wining goals (three) than Cates (two, tied with six other rookies), and he leads all rookie forwards in ice time per game (17:45).

We are approaching the time of the season when some rookies who carry a significant workload hit a wall. That has not yet happened with Cates, who is 2-6-8, plus-3, over his last 11 games.  His contributions are consistent with the results of a secondary-scoring player.  He has goals in five games to date, and the Flyers are 4-0-1 in those contests; the Flyers are 7-4-1 in the 12 games in which he has points.  In the ten games in which he logged at least 19 minutes, the Flyers are 5-1-4.  With respect to his ice times, there are those occasions in which a rookie might slump and give the head coach cause to sit him or reduce his minutes.  The former has not happened, and as to the latter, Cates has not skated less than 14:43 in any game this season, only about three minutes under his average this season.  Cates is 0-0-0, minus-3, in three career games against the Caps.

1.  Philadelphia’s net power play on home ice (accounting for shorthanded goals scored by opponents) is the fourth-worst on home ice in the league (12.1 percent). It is slight better, efficiency-wise, on the road at 12.7 percent, but it ranks 31^st in the league.

2.  Only Montreal has scored first in fewer games on home ice (three) than the Flyers (five), who are just 2-3-0 in the limited instances they did so (.400 winning percentage/31^st in the league).  They are also frustrated in this area on the road – 3-3-2/.375 (29^th in winning percentage).

3.  If the Flyers can get a lead after 40 minutes on home ice, they will like their chances.  They are 7-0-0 on home ice when leading after two periods.  Even on the road they have been successful, just not frequent in getting those 40-minute leads (4-0-1 in 22 road games).

4.  The Flyers have been digging early holes on home ice.  They have a minus-8 goal differential in first periods on home ice, fifth-worst in the league.  That is worse than their goal-differential in first periods on the road (minus-2).

5.  No team has more losses by three or more goals on home ice than the Flyes (nine in 19 home games).

1.  Washington has not been an especially prolific scoring team on home ice, their 3.32 goals per game ranking 14^th in the league in home scoring offense.  They have averaged fewer goals per game on the road (3.11) but rank 11^th in road scoring offense.

2.  The Caps have been very good at home holding down opponents’ scoring, the 2.59 goals allowed per game at home ranking sixth in the league in scoring defense.  They have been almost as good on the road, the 2.81 goals allowed per game ranking eighth in road scoring defense.

3.  Only 28 first period goals have been scored by the Caps and opponents in 22 games at Capital One Arena this season, split evenly at 14 apiece. The Caps have a minus-4 goal differential in first period goals in 21 road games (15 for, 19 against).

4.  Only Pittsburgh has allowed more overtime goals on home ice (four) than the Caps (three, tied with three other teams).

5.  The Caps are on of three teams that have trailed first at least ten times on home ice with a winning percentage of at least .500 (5-4-1/.500).  Winnipeg and Toronto are the others.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Samuel Ersson

It was supposed to be Carter Hart’s net.  And for the most part this season, it has been.  Hart has taken 28 of the 41 starts by Flyer goaltenders to date.  But his 11-12-6, 2.97, .908, is not what the team might be expecting, even for a club that is still struggling to achieve competitive status with other playoff contenders.  Perhaps a victim of circumstance (the Dlyers’ overall struggles) or his own shortcomings, he has not been the answer many thought he could be when he burst upon the scene with a rookie season good enough for him to finish ninth in Calder Trophy voting and a sophomore season that was an improvement over his rookie year (24-13-3, 2.42, .914, one shutout).  Over his next two seasons he was 22-35-12, 3.34, .895, with two shutouts. 

But Hart was injured in a December 23^rd game against Carolina, leaving the net to Felix Sandstrom, or it would have but for Sandstrom missing time to illness.  It is in that context that Samuel Ersson is an intriguing character.  Ersson was called up from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL on December 21^st to fill in for Sanderson and was pressed into duty when Hart was injured.  He completed that game Hart started against Carolina and allowed five goals on 30 shots in 47 minutes in a 6-5 loss (he did not earn the decision).  But since then, Ersson has been impressive, allowing three goals on 28 shots to San Jose, two in 25 shots against Los Angeles, one on 29 shots against Anaheim, and most recently a 28-save shutout in a 4-0 win against Buffalo – all wins, and all on the road. In his short time with the big club, he is 4-0-0, 2.30, .924, that save percentage tops among all rookie goalies playing at least 100 minutes.  It was not as if any of this was expected.  With the Phantoms, Ersson was 9-8-1, 2.72, .910, his goals against average ranking 25^th among qualifying goalies and his save percentage ranking 19^th.  One might say that the Flyers have credible alternatives to the goaltending position, but it looks from a distance like one that remains – as it seems to have been for decades – in flux.  Ersson has never faced the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie is not the offensive producer he has been in the past.  At his current rate of point production, he will finish 2022-2023 with the only season of his 15-year career not averaging more than half a point per game (he has 13 points in 26 games/0.50 points per game).  He will finish the season with his second consecutive year with less than 0.30 goals per game, something he has not done since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, his final two seasons with the St Louis Blues.  His 12.5 shooting percentage is his lowest since 2014-2015, his last year with the Blues, when he shot 11.7 percent.  His 16:42 in ice time per game is his lowest since his rookie year in 2008-2009 (16:35 per game).  And while neither a center nor a player with a heavy faceoff load, he does take a lot of draws for a winger, yet his 37.7 winning percentage is the worst of his career.

And yet, the Caps win when he is on the ice.  In 26 games this season in which he played, the Caps are 16-8-2; they are 7-6-4 in the 17 games he missed.  It is not as if this an unusual or isolated phenomenon.  Since coming to the Caps in July 2015, the Caps are 299-132-52 in games in which he dressed (a 110-point pace per 82 games) and 98-58-21 (a 101-point pace per 82 games) in games he missed.  The consistency of the relationship between his being on ice and Caps success looks like a reflection of the limitation of numbers – top line or more sophisticated statistics – to capture his impact on outcomes.  Oshie’s absences this season, twice missing time to what appeared to be non-contact injuries, have denied him much of an opportunity to establish and scoring momentum.  In 26 games he has three streaks of three or more games without a point, and he does not have an assist on his resume since November 25^th, a streak of 15 games and counting.  What has been particularly curious about his season to date is an inability to score at home.  He has two goals on 30 shots (6.7 percent) in 12 games on home ice so far this season, even though he is averaging about a minute more in home ice time per game (17:11) than on the road (16:17).  Oshie is 12-12-24, plus-1, in 39 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

With as little game action as the Caps will have this week, it is an opportunity to get some practice in and put those lessons to work to play with structure and focus.  The Flyers are a feisty and familiar enough foe to get and hold the Caps’ attention, so taking the opponent for granted should – that is “should” – not be an issue.  It will be difficult to gain much, if any ground in the standings with just the two games against the Flyers on the slate, but that makes these two games important to maintain and solidify their place in the playoff mix.

Wednesday: Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Saturday: Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

 

 

Just a Reminder...

 For 20 games, the Caps were not very good.  And then, they were...

So, Caps fans...if there are any among you inclined to pick nits, complain about this, or whine about that...you need to rethink your choices.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 13

The margin between a really good week and a mediocre one in eh NHL can be measured in a few minutes.  It was true for the Washington Capitals in Week 13. They allowed a game-tying goal in the second half of the third period of one game before losing in overtime, and they were less than five minutes from forcing overtime when they surrendered the game-winning goal in another context to leave them with a 1-1-1 record that could have ended much better with better late-game management.

Record (1-1-1)

The Caps went into Week 13 on an 11-1-1 run and opened the week hosting a club on the rise in the Buffalo Sabres, who were on a 6-1-0 run of their own.  Washington went into the third period trailing but pulled ahead on goals by Nic Dowd and Alex Ovechkin.  The Caps could not hold on to their good fortune, though, and gave up the game-tying goal to Tyson Jost with less than nine minutes left in regulation to force overtime.  Three minutes in, Tage Thompson scored to give the visitors the extra standings point.  The Caps then spotted the Columbus Blue Jackets the opening goal in the middle contest of the week, then took over in the second period, outscoring the jackets, 6-1, over the final 40 minutes for a 6-2 win. 

The Caps had a chance for a winning week when Nashville come to town on Friday, but the Predators sandwiched a pair of goals around a Sonny Milano strike to take a 2-1 lead into the first intermission.  Washington tied it in the second period on a Nicolas Aube-Kubel goal, but the Caps could not find the tie-breaking goal before Ryan McDonagh scored with just 3:16 left in regulation to leave the Caps with a 1-1-1 record for the week.

Offense: 4.00 /game (season: 3.31 / 10th)

Three games, 12 goals, seven goal-scorers.  Alex Ovechkin led the team with three goals for the week, but the Caps continue to get important contributions from role players.  In Week 13, it was Aube-Kubel, who potted his first two goals of the season, and Sonny Milano, who has been a real spark for this team and had a pair of goals of his own.  T.J. Oshie continued working himself into playing form after an injury to be the third Capital with two goals.  Martin Fehervary chipped in with his third goal (the game-winner against Columbus) in six games after going his first 23 games of the season without one.  Nic Dowd scored his fifth goal in eight games.

What was remarkable about the offense, though, was that 18 of 20 skaters to dress for the week had at least one point, four Caps had three points, and another six had two or more.  Dylan Strom (0-3-3), Milano (2-1-3), Ovechkin (3-0-3), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-3-3) were the four Caps with three points apiece.

Ovechkin led the Caps with 13 shots on goal, but once more there were those role players close by.  Milano was second for the week with nine shots on goal, while Trevor van Riemsdyk tied T.J. Oshie with eight shots on goal.  There were also six Caps averaging a shot on goal per game played and a shooting percentage of 20 percent or better, led by Aube-Kubel, who had hs two goals for the week on four shots (50.0 percent).

Defense: 3.33 / game (season: 2.76 / 9th)

That the Caps would allow 3.33 goals per game looks a bit odd, given that in none of the three games for the week did the Caps allow as many as 30 shots on goal.  They did not allow more than 11 in any single period and allowed an average of 25.7 shots per game for the week.  They had a huge edge in shots of goal-for on ice at 5-on-5 – 155-134 (plus 21, tied for seventh best in the league for the week), yet they did allow eight 5-on-5 goals, tied for seventh-most in the league for the week.

The fourth line of Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway, and Aliaksei Protas took it on the chin in terms of individual on-ice goal differential at 5-on-5.  Hathaway was a team-worst minus-3, while Dowd and Protas each were minus-2.  Nick Jensen was the only other Capital, and the only defenseman, to post a negative goal differential at fives (minus-2).  All 20 of the Capitals skaters playing in Week 13 were on ice for at least one 5-on-5 goal against.

Goaltending: 3.31 / .870 (season: 2.57 / .914 / 3 shutouts)

It was not an especially good week for the goaltenders.  Both Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren finished the week north of 3.00 in goals against average and south of .900 in save percentage.  Only twice in nine regulation periods of hockey were they able to keep opponents off he scoreboard, and first periods were most difficult, Kuemper and Lindgren combining to stop 23 of 28 shots (.821 save percentage).  The save percentages improved over the periods (.909/20-for-22 in the second periods, .920/23-for-25 in the third periods), but early slow stats hampered the Caps generally.  And, the two third period goals allowed happened to be a game-tying goal in a game the Caps would lose in overtime and a late goal to give Nashville their winning margin in regulation.

Power Play: 2-for-6 / 33.3 percent (season: 22.4 percent / 16th)

The efficiency was good, but the Caps lacked opportunities to capitalize further on what was an efficient week for the power play.  Only three teams for the week had fewer man advantages per game than did the Caps (2.00).  As usual, Ovechkin led the team in power play shots with four.  But no other Capital had more than one, and only three Caps were in that group – Dylan Strome, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie.  Strome had the primary assists on both Caps power play goals for the week (Ovechkin and Oshie).  It was anemic production, and not only because the Caps had only six power play chances.  There were nine Caps who logged at least 1:30 in power play ice time for the week.

Penalty Killing 5-for-6 / 83.3 percent (season: 81.4 percent / 9th)

If the lack of power play chances was a minus on special teams, the lack of shorthanded situations faced was a plus.  No team faced fewer shorthanded situations per game than did the Caps in Week 13 (2.00).  Washington spread the penalty killing responsibilities around, even with few penalty kills to face.  Nine Caps – four defensemen and five forwards – averaged at least 1:30 in penalty killing ice time for the week.  Week 13 extended a run of consistency on the penalty kill.  It was the seventh straight week in which the Caps were 80.0 percent or better killing penalties and are 84.5 percent overall during that stretch, the third best penalty kill in the league.

Faceoffs: 97-for-166 / 58.4 percent (season: 49.5 percent / 19th)

It was a very good week in the circle for the Caps, who have climbed from near the bottom of the league rankings in this category to 19^th overall.  The overall numbers for Week 14 were inflated a bit by a 64.4 percent winning percentage in the neutral zone, but the Caps were still over 50 percent in all three zones for the week.

The overall performance was fueled by Lars Eller, Dylan Strome, and Nic Dowd, each of whom finished the week over 60 percent overall. Only Evgeny Kuznetsov had a sub-50 percent week among those Caps taking at least ten draws, but he has improved in this area over recent weeks, bringing his overall season winning percentage to 47.4 percent, which at the moment stands as the second best faceoff winning percentage of his career.

Goals by Period

Although the Caps let games get away from them late, they might have been in that position had they performed better in first periods of games.  They were minus-3 for the week in goal differential, and again it was their lack of first period scoring that hurt.  The Caps have scored only 28 first period goals in 42 games through 13 weeks, tied for 25^th in first period goals scored and the reason they are a minus-5 in first periods of games this season. 

Year-over-Year

This year’s Caps have almost caught last year’s club in many categories.  They are now down by just one win from last year’s team, although they do have four more losses in regulation, accounting for the five point difference that remains between the two editions.  Scoring offense and defense are now almost indistinguishable from last year, as are shots on goal.  This year’s special teams are better, and significantly so, as is the faceoff winning percentage.  The real difference, year to year, is that the Caps are 12-3-3 since December 1^st this season.  Last season, over the December 1 – January 7 period, the Caps had a bye week but were still just 6-3-3 in the games they did play.

In the end…

The Caps did their job in the 2022 portion of the season, keeping close to the leaders to buy time until some of the injured (Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson most notably) back.  Even with a sluggish Week13, the Caps seem far ahead of where many thought they would be, and now they get a pair of games against an old rival –the Philadelphia Flyers – in Week 14.

Three Stars

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-0-3, plus-2, 13 shots on goal, 13 credited hits, only one goal against on ice at even strength)
• Second Star: Sonny Milano (2-1-3, plus-4), nine shots on goal)
• Third Star: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2-0-2, plus-1, four shots on goal, only two games played)

 

Programming Note

We will be on hiatus for the next week while we attend to some personal business.  We hope to be back next weekend, and in the meantime...

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Canadiens at Capitals, December 31

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals ring out the old year on Saturday afternoon wanting to ring the nasty stains of a fall-from-ahead 4-3 overtime loss to the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night.  The Montreal Canadiens will arrive at Capital One Arena to provide the opposition.  Despite the overtime loss to the Senators, the Caps will go into the 2022 finale on a six-game points streak (5-0-1) and, with a win, could still finish December with the best record in the league for the month (currently 10-2-2, one point behind Carolina at 11-0-1). 

Montreal might be coming into this game thinking the Stanley Cup final they played in two seasons ago was in 1921, not 2021.  Since then, the most celebrated franchise in the NHL is 37-67-14, their 88 standings points earned tied with Arizona and Chicago for fewest in the league.  Montreal has made progress this season, but they still have a long was to go to be competitive.  At 15-18-3, Montreal is in eighth place in the Atlantic Division and 11 points out of a wild-card spot. 

The Canadiens struggle to score, their 2.61 goals per game tied for 28^th in the league in scoring offense.  Only two skaters have reached double digits in goals through 36 games.  Cole Caufield is one of the players around whom the Canadiens hope to build in the seasons ahead.  The 15^th overall pick of the 2019 Entry Draft, Caufield is one goal short of posting his second straight 20-goal season (he had 23 in 67 games last season).  He is on a pace to finish this season with 43 goals, which would make him the first 40-goal scorer for Montreal since Vincent Damphousse finished the 1993-1994 season with 40 goals.

While Caufield has been productive in his goal scoring overall, there is a definite home tilt to his production.  In 16 home games to date, he is 13-3-16, minus-5; while he is 6-6-12, minus-4, in 20 road games.  His goal scoring matters, the Canadiens going 9-5-1 in the 15 games in which he had goals, 6-13-2 in the 21 games he went without one.  More to the point for this game, Montreal has not lost a road game in regulation in which he had a goal (4-0-1).  On the other hand, he comes into this game on a four-game streak without a goal on the road, the Canadiens losing each of those games (0-3-1).  In four career games against Washington, Caufield is 2-1-3, minus-3.

Nick Suzuki is the other double digit goal scorer for the Canadiens with 15 in 36 games, and his 31 points leads the team.  On September 12^th, he was named the 31^st captain in Montreal history, following Shea Weber in the position.  At 23 years of age, he became the youngest captain in franchise history.  The 13^th overall pick of the 2017 Entry Draft by the Vegas Golden Knights, he was traded to Montreal in September 2018 with a second round draft pick in 2019 and Tomas Tatar to the Canadiens for Max Pacioretty.  In four seasons with Montreal, he has improved steadily, going 13-28-41 in 71 games as a rookie in 2019-2020 to 15-26-41 in 56 games in 2020-2021 to 21-40-61 in 82 games last season.

This season, Suzuki is 15-16-31, a 34-36-70 scoring pace thqat would make him only the second Canadien over the last 13 seasons to record 70 or more points (Max Domi had 72 points in 2018-2019).  Unlike Caufield, Suzuki’s scoring has been balanced between home and road venues – 7-8-15 in 16 home games and 8-8-16 in 20 road games.  What Suzuki has not been is hot lately.  After posting points in five of six games to end November and start December, he is just 1-1-2, minus-8, over his last ten games.  He has really cooled off on the road.  After going 8-8-16 in his first 15 road games, Suzuki is on a five-game streak on the road without a point and has gone seven straight road games without a goal  He is 3-3-6, minus-4, in seven career games against Washington.

You would think that a team trying to rebuild and climb back into the playoff conversation would be giving young players a long look.  In the case of the Canadiens, you would be right.  Montreal has five rookie skaters this season with more than 30 games played.  Defenseman Kaiden Guhle leads that group, the only Montreal rookie to appear in all 36 games so far this season. He leads all rookie defensemen in games played, and only Dallas forward Wyatt Johnston has appeared in more games as a rookie to date (37). Guhle, another first round pick (16^th overall in the 2020 Entry Draft), is tied for ninth in scoring in his draft class this season (2-12-14) and the leading scorer among defensemen. 

Guhle’s season started in modest fashion, going 1-2-3, minus-3, in his first 11 games.  But starting with a two-point night against the Vegas Golden Knights on November 5^th (a 6-4 Montreal loss), he is 1-10-11, minus-11, in his last 25 games.  And yes, that minus-11 does stick out, but he is one of four Canadiens in double digit negative territory in that category, including Caufield (minus-10) and Suzuki (minus-12).  His home-road split is significant.  Although he has yet to record a goal on home ice, he has nine assists in 16 games.  On the road, he is just 2-3-5 in 20 games.  He has, however, raised in road production a bit over time.  In his first ten road games, Guhle was 1-0-1, minus-4, but over his last ten road contests, he is 1-3-4, minus-4.  He was without a point and posted a minus-2 rating in his only appearance against the Caps to date.

1.  As the Canadiens prepare for their last game in the calendar year, their 30-45-10 record is 29^th in the league in points earned since January 1^st (70) and 28^th n points percentage (.412).

2.  Montreal’s 2.85 goals per game ranks 26 in scoring offense in 2022.

3.  The 3.86 goals allowed per game in 2022 leaves Montreal as the 31^st-ranked scoring defense in the league this calendar year.

4.  Canadiens’ special teams struggled in 2022.  Their power play ranked 31^st (15.1 percent), their penalty kill ranked 21^st (77.0 percent), and their special teams index (92.1) ranked 29^th.

5.  Montreal was 9-27 in games decided by three or more goals, their .250 winning percentage ranking 29^th in the league in 2022.

1.  Washington goes into their last game of the calendar year with 98 points earned, 18^th in the league in points (44-33-10), and their .563 points percentage ranks 18^th as well.

2.  The Caps’ 3.15 goals per game in 2022 is the 17^th-ranked scoring offense, and their 3.01 goals allowed per game ranks 13^th in the league in scoring defense in the calendar year.

3.  The 21.0 percent power play ranks the Capitals 20^th in the league in 2022, their 80.3 percent penalty kill ranks 13^th, and their 10.3 special teams index ranks 17^th.

4.  Washington has 3.23 power play chances per game with one game left in 2022, the fifth-most power play chances per game.

5.  The Caps have just 171 5-on-5 goals in 2022.  The are one of two teams (Winnipeg is the other) to have a scoring offense of at least 3.10 goals per game and fewer than 175 goals at 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Jake Allen/Sam Montembeault

Old or young, veteran or inexperienced, Jake Allen or Sam Montembeault?  There has been little difference in the performance of the Montreal goaltenders this season, which is not to say that either Allen or Montembeault have been great, or even good.  Much of that might be a product to a young team in front of them, but their numbers, while very similar, are not among the league leaders. 

Allen, 32 years old with ten seasons and 377 games in the NHL, has had the lion’s share of starts (24 in 36 games), posting a record of 9-14-1, 3.29, .900.  Those 14 losses in regulation are tied with Anaheim’s John Gibson for most in the league.  His goals against average ranks 46^th among 65 goalies with at least 500 minutes played, while his save percentage ranks 39^th in that group.  Montembeault, 26 years old with 75 games played over four seasons, has 12 starts, going 6-4-2, 3.23, .904.  His goals against average ranks 43^rd in that group of 65 goalies, while his save percentage ranks 35^th. 

While Allen has been more of the “home” goaltender (14 of his 24 starts were at Bell Centre), Montembeault has been almost the designated road goalie, ten of his 12 starts this season coming on the road.  But the odd part of that is his road record is not very good – 4-4-2, 3.49, .898 – while he is 2-0-0, 1.96, .934 in his only two starts on home ice.  On the other hand, Allen is 4-5-1, 2.70, .923 on the road and just 5-9-0, 3.72, .882 at home.  Allen is 3-3-0, 2.97, .902, with one shutout in six career games against the Caps, while Montembeault is 0-2-0, 4.40, .859, in three career games against the Caps.

Washington: Aliaksei Protas

Last season, Aliaksei Protas was 3-6-9, plus-4, in 33 games.  So far this season, he is 3-4-7, plus-1, in 38 games, one of nine Capitals to appear in every game to date.  He has gone long stretches without points this season, recording two streaks of six games without a point and another eight-game streak.  If he goes without a point against Montreal, he will add another six-game streak to this year’s log.  He does not get much in the way of scoring line minutes, and he is averaging about a minute less per game in ice time this year (10:58) than last year (11:50).  

It makes Protas’ relatively unchanged stat line from last year to this look unsurprising.  But despite his modest production to date, there is the “canary in a coal mine” aspect to his game that one might remember was a hallmark of former Capital Jay Beagle’s game.  When he puts crooked numbers on the score sheet, the Caps win.  They are 3-0-0 in the games in which he had goals so far and 6-0-0 in games in which he had points.  It was much the same last season, when the Caps went 3-0-0 in games in which he had goals and 7-1-0 in games in which he had points.  And while he is not an especially physical player, the Caps are 10-4-3 in games in which he recorded at least one hit.  Protas’ production on home ice has lagged, going 1-1-2, plus-1, in 18 games, while he is 2-3-5, even, I 20 road contests.  He is 0-0-0, even, in two career games against Montreal.

In the end…

One bad loss is bad, two against a pair of non-playoff teams to end the calendar year would be worse.  The way the Caps lost to Ottawa, giving up a two goal lead and losing in overtime on home ice, had to sting. But is not as if the Caps have dominated this team on their rink.  The teams split their last 20 decisions in Washington right down the middle, each with ten wins.  And, the Caps’ offense over those 20 games has been a dry well, averaging just 2.70 goals per game.  Fortunately, their defense has been better, allowing the Canadiens only 2.25 goals per game over those 20 contests.  After going dormant late in the game against Ottawa, a fast start in this one would not be surprising.  It certainly would be welcome.

Capitals 5 – Canadiens 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Senators at Capitals, December 29

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return from New York and their 4-0 win over the Rangers on Tuesday night to start a three-game home stand on Thursday night against the Ottawa Senators at Capital One Arena.  The Caps are on a five-game winning streak, their second five-game winning streak this month, and their 13-3-1 since November 23^rd is the second best record in the league over that span. 

Ottawa has been the epitome of a streaky team.  Starting with a 5-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils on November 19^th, the Senators have gone 18 games over which they have had either consecutive wins or consecutive losses, save for an odd 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers on November 30^th that was sandwiched between two two-game winning streaks, and a 3-2 Gimmick win over the Boston Bruins in their last contest that followed a three-game losing streak (0-2-1).

The Senators are 9-7-2 over those 18 games, leaving them mired in seventh place in the Atlantic Division and ten points out of a playoff spot.  Over those 18 games the Senators have struggled to score, their 2.1 goals per game ranking 26^th in the league in scoring offense over that span.

Drake Batherson has seven of the 47 goals scored by the Senators in this stretch to lead the team, bringing his season total to 12 goals in 34 games.  For the fifth-year right winger, this could be a break out season.  Following a pair of 17-goal seasons with abbreviated schedules (one to COVID, the other to an ankle injury for which he missed 28 games), he is on a pace to finish with 29 goals this season.  And, depending on what Claude Giroux (14 goals) and Brady Tkachuk (13 goals) do over the rest of the regular season, he could be only the third 30-goal scorer for Ottawa since 2011-2012 (Tkachuk and Josh Norris did it last season), when Milan Michalek (35 goals) and Jason Spezza (34 goals) did it for Ottawa.

Another number that would (and as the moment does) represent a career best (or worst) is his minus-23 rating.  That is the second-worst among 817 skaters to play this season and is a minus-55 pace over a full season.  Only ten skaters have been on ice for more even strength goals scored against the Senators than Batherson (39 goals against).  Unsurprisingly, the Senators are 3-14-0 in the 17 games in which he posted a negative rating (1-4-0 in the five games in which he posted goals).  Only three times in 34 games did he have a positive rating and none since November 10^th when he was plus-1 in a 4-3 overtime loss to New Jersey.  What he brings to this game is that he scored goals in each of the first two meetings of these teams this year – a pair of power play goals less than two minutes apart in a 5-2 loss to the Caps on October 20^th and a goal in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Caps on December 22^nd.  In six career games against the Caps, Batherson is 6-1-7, plus-2.

Nick Holden has been around.  The 12-year veteran has played in 618 games for six different franchises.  And now, in his second season with the Ottawa Senators, he finds himself as the oldest player to skate for the team this season (he will turn 36 in May).  Holden has been a defenseman who managed to carve out a long career without the advantage of being much of an offensive contributor. Since he came into the league in 2010-2011 with the Columbus Blue Jackets, he is one of a dozen defensemen to have logged more than 600 games while posting fewer than 50 goals and fewer than 120 assists. 

This has been a rather typical season for Holden (1-5-6, minus-7, in 29 games).  But he has done well, or more accurately, the team has when he had heavier ice time loads.  In ten games in which he skated 17:30 or more to date, Ottawa is 6-4-0, while they are 7-9-3 in the 19 games he skated less.  He is not an especially physical defender, but in 13 games in which he was credited with two or more hits, Ottawa is 8-3-0.  The Sens are 6-3-2 when he had two or more blocked shots.  His numbers might not show up in the post-game credits, but if he is posting decent totals in underlying numbers, in the grittier, less-rewarded elements of the game, it might be the difference between winning and losing for the Senators.  Holden is 2-2-4, minus-4, in 19 career games against Washington.

Ottawa has dressed three rookies this season for more than 30 games apiece.  Only Montreal has done so with as many.  Centers Shane Pinto (34) and Mark Kastelic (31), and defenseman Jake Sanderson (34) make up the trio.  Pinto leads the group in goals scored (ten, tied for second among all rookies) and points (16, tied for sixth among all rookies).  A second-round (32^nd overall) pick in the 2019 Entry Draft, Pinto spent two seasons with the University of North Dakota hockey program, going 31-29-60 in 61 games with the Fighting Hawks.  Over the following two seasons he played in 17 games with Ottawa (preserving his rookie status for this season), posting a goal and seven assists.

Pinto was fast out the gate to start this season.  After going without a point on Opening Night, he recorded single goals in each of his next five games and six of seven overall.  Ottawa was 4-2-0 in those games.  It might have been a signal that he was going to be a scoring force to be reckoned with and an indicator of team success with his scoring, but he has cooled off considerably since that hot start.  In 26 games since, Pinto is 4-5-9, minus-11, and the Sens are just 1-1-1 in the three games in which he posted goals (4-1-2 in the seven games in which he had points).  Of note for this game, Pinto has not scored goal on the road with November 10^th when he had a pair in a 4-3 overtime loss in New Jersey to the Devils.  Pinto is 1-1-2, plus-2, in two career games against the Caps.

1.  Ottawa comes into this game with a 6-8-2 record on the road, tied for 27^th in the league in points earned (14) and tied for 25^th in points percentage (.438).

2.  The Senators’ 2.75 goals per game on the road is the 24^th-ranked scoring offense in the league.

3. On the other hand, the Senators’ road power play has been formidable, their 30.9 percent success rate tied for best in the league with Dallas.

4.  Ottawa’s penalty killers are one of one of five teams this season yet to allow a shorthanded goal on the road.

5.  Only Boston and Chicago have scored first in road games fewer times (four and twice, respectively) than the Senators (five times in 16 games).

1.  The Caps have allowed 2.53 goals per game on home ice, the sixth-best scoring defense in the league.

2.  Washington’s 85.0 percent penalty kill on home ice is fourth-best it the league.

3.  Only the New York Islanders have scored fewer first period goals on home ice (six in 17 games) than the Caps (nine in 17 games).

4.  Only five teams have allowed fewer goals in the first period on home ice than the Caps (ten).

5.  Only four teams have had fewer shorthanded situations faced on home ice than the Caps (2.35 per game).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Claude Giroux

Well, he has held up his end of the bargain.  When Claude Giroux signed a three-year/$19.5 million contract with Ottawa last July, he was returnng to the province in which he was born.  Although he is still just 34 years old, it had a bit of the last, play out the string feel as a contract.  But Giroux isn’t playing as if he is ready for retirement soon.  He leads this years Senators team in goals (14), is fifth in assists (15), tied for fourth in points (29), tied for fifth in power play points (11), has one of the two overtime goals scored by a Senator this season, and is tied for second in game-winning goals. 

But what is lost in his contributions is that they have largely gone for naught.  He has at least one goal in 12 games this season, but Ottawa is only 5-7-0 in those games (3-4-0 on the road).  He has points in 19 games, but the Senators are just 8-10-1 in those games (4-4-1 on the road).  He logged at least 17:30 in 21 games, the team is just 6-12-3 in those games.  They have won only once in eight tries when he has at least four shots on goal (1-6-1).  What is more ominous for the Senators, his production has fallen off after a fast start.  Giroux was 8-10-18, plus-2, in his first 17 games (the Sens were just 6-10-1 in those games), while he is 6-5-11, minus-2, in his last 17 games (the team is 9-6-2 over that span).  Odd Giroux fact… he has never had a game-winning goal against Washington, something none of the other 14 active players with more than 30 career points against the Caps can say.  In 58 career games against the Caps, Giroux is 24-28-52, plus-8.  Only four active players have faced the Caps in more regular season games, and only four have recorded more points against Washington.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

After a brutal start in which he had two goals and four points in his first 30 games, Garnet Hathaway is showing signs of being the contributor he was last season when he had a career high in goals (14) and points (26) in 76 games played.  Over his last seven games, Hathaway is 1-3-4, plus-4.  He has not forsaken his lean toward mischief in doing so.  Over those seven games he is tied for 11^th in the league in credited hits (21) and is 14^th among 508 players appearing in at least five games in hits per 60 minutes (14.12).  But he has been playing in the rules, too, earning just one minor penalty in those seven games. 

Those penalty minutes are noteworthy in the overall context of his season.  He does have 37 minutes in penalties this season, but almost half of them were earned in a single game, the product of a five-minute fighting, a ten-minute misconduct, and a two-minute minor for tripping in a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay on November 11^th.  He earned single minor penalties in ten other games.  Given the results of those games, the Caps would just as soon he took none.  Washington was 2-8-0 in those ten games.

It would be better than Hathaway maintain the momentum in the scoring aspect of the game he generated over his last seven games.  The Caps are 5-1-0 in the six games in which he had point so far this season and are 40-12-4 in games in which he posted at least one point in his four seasons with the Caps.  Hathaway is 1-0-1, even, in two career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

After dominating wins in their last two outings against two of the league’s better teams – Winnipeg and the New York Rangers – the Caps enter a soft spot in the schedule with nine consecutive games against teams currently out of the playoff mix.  That string starts Thursday night against Ottawa and is not a time to think about easing off the throttle.

Capitals 5 – Senators 3