The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take the ice looking for their
fourth consecutive win when they host the Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday
afternoon at Verizon Center. This will
be the sixth time this season that the Caps take a three-game winning streak
into a game looking for a fourth straight win.
Washington has yet to grab that fourth straight win.
The Flyers come into this game having earned points in their
last five games (4-0-1). Four of those
decisions were of the one-goal variety, three of them going to extra time. The longest points streak of the season might
have come too late for the Flyers, though.
Sitting in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division and tenth place in
the Eastern Conference, nine points out of a playoff spot with 30 games to
play, there might be too many teams to climb over and too few games in which to
do it for the orange and black.
At the moment, though, the Flyers are on a run led by a
stingy defense. A big part of that has
been the play of goaltender Steve Mason.
After missing six games with a knee injury, Mason has been in net for
the last four games, going 3-0-1, 1.23, .959, and a shutout of the Toronto
Maple Leafs on January 31st.
It is part of a longer run of good play by Mason in the 2015 portion of
the season. Since the calendar turned
over, he is 5-1-1 (two no-decisions), 1.51, .948, and the shutout. As it is, Mason has the third best save
percentage at even strength this season (.937), behind only Pekka Rinne (.938)
and Carey Price (.939) among goalies appearing in at least 30 games. In 12
career appearances against the Caps, Mason is 7-3-2, 2.77, .908, with two shutouts.
At the other end of the ice the Flyers have 14 goals in
their 4-0-1 run. Nine players share in
the goal scoring, led by Chris VandeVelde with three. It is an unexpected outburst, part of a
longer run in which he has five goals in his last seven games. In his previous 81 games covering parts of
five seasons with the Edmonton Oilers and the Flyers, VandeVelde had only four
career goals. Sustainable? Five goals on his last ten shots on goal over
seven games is probably a short term trend, but he will be someone to
watch. In four career games against the
Caps he has one assist.
Sixteen Flyers share points in their recent five-game string
of success. Wayne Simmonds and Michael
Del Zotto each have a pair of goals and a pair of assists to lead the overall
scoring. For Simmonds, four points in
his last four games comes on the heels of a five-game streak without a point
and eight without a goal. Simmonds still
leads the Flyers in goals (18), power play goals (11), and game-winning
goals. He has faced the Caps 18 times in
his career and is 3-5-8, plus-1.
Del Zotto is engaged in something of a rehabilitation of his
career. After going 10-31-41, plus-20
for the New York Rangers in 2011-2012, then following it up with 21 points in
46 games in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, his offensive production from the
blue line dried up last season. He
recorded only two goals and 11 points in 41 games with the Rangers, then had
only a goal and five points in 25 games with the Nashville Predators after the
Rangers traded him for defenseman Kevin Klein.
Del Zotto is 5-12-17 in 40 games for the Flyers, his point total second
on the club among defensemen. In 21
career games against Washington he is 0-7-7, plus-4.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Philadelphia has
played reasonably well in one-goal games, posting a record of 11-8-8 (including
a 3-2 overtime win over the Capitals on January 8th). In games decided by more than one goal, the
Flyers are 11-14. In their 4-0-1 run,
they are 3-0-1 in one-goal decisions.
2. The Flyers have
been nicked up on the blue line all season.
Only Mark Streit has appeared in all 52 games this season, and only Nick
Schultz (50) has appeared in more than 42 games among the ten defensemen to
dress for Philadelphia this season.
3. When it comes to
penalties, the Flyers seem to be either in the protection racket or polishing
their reputation. While they have the 11th
fewest number of minor penalties, the Flyers are tied for seventh in fighting
majors. Either they are protecting their
skill players (or, given their place in the standings, what passes for skill),
or…well, they’re the Flyers.
4. Getting an early
lead is something that manages to elude the Flyers regularly. Only Florida has scored first in fewer games (19
times in 50 games) than Philadelphia (20 in 52 games).
5. Possession is an
issue for the Flyers. They have the
seventh-worst Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.3), eighth-worst in close score situations (47.9). Only three players appearing in
at least 20 games have individual Corsi-for percentages above 50 percent –
Michael Raffl (55.8), Jakub Voracek (54.1), and Claude Giroux (52.4).
1. The Caps fell
behind in each of their last two games and won both contests. Before that they had one just once all season
when falling behind first. The flip side of
that is their record when scoring first.
Not only is their 25-1-4 record the second-best winning percentage in
the league (.883; Montreal is .870), but they have scored first 30 times in 53
games. Only four teams have scored first
more often – the New York Rangers (31), Tampa Bay Lightning (32), Pittsburgh
Penguins (33), and Winnipeg Jets (33).
2. The Caps are 10-1-1 in their last dozen games at home,
outscoring opponents by a 37-20 margin.
Their special teams index in this home streak is impressive at 112.7 (27.3
percent power play, 85.4 percent penalty kill).
3. Only four teams
have spent less total power play time at home than the Caps (129:44) – New Jersey
(122:27), Carolina (117:36) and Boston (103:00).
4. The Caps have a standings
points record over .500 when out-shooting opponents (12-10-5) and a record over
.500 when outshot (11-5-5). However,
they are undefeated when shots are even (5-0-0).
5. The Caps don’t do
blowouts. Well, not often. Only Florida has had fewer decision of three
or more goals (9) than the Caps (11). No
team has fewer losses by three or more goals than the Caps (2).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Sean Couturier
Sean Couturier was an eighth overall draft pick of the
Flyers in the 2011 entry draft. He made
the jump right to the Flyers after 41-goal and 36-goal years with Drummondville
in the QMJHL. One might have anticipated
that he would take his place as a scoring line forward with the big club. So far,
that has not been the case, at least the scoring part. Couturier has 41 goals in 257 career games, a
13-goal pace per 82 games. That does not
make the 22-year old a failure, by any means.
However, his role might be a little different than what might have been
envisioned. Couturier is second among
Flyer forwards in ice time per game, due in large part to his leading the club’s
forwards in shorthanded ice time. With
so much shorthanded ice time comes power play goals allowed, and no forward in
the league has been on ice for more power play goals against, and it’s not
close. Couturier has been on ice for 28
power play goals against (half of his total) while his teammate Matt Read and the
New York Islanders’ Frans Nielsen have been on ice for 21 power play goals
against. He has not been making it up in
the offensive end; he is 2-1-3 in his last 16 games. Couturier is 3-3-6, plus-2, in 14 career
games against the Caps.
Washington: Braden
Holtby
The Washington Capitals have an excellent record at home over
the last two months, and much of that id due to goalie Braden Holtby. Since he lost a 4-3 decision to the Vancouver
Canucks on December 2nd, Holtby is 9-0-2, 1.53, .947, with three
shutouts at Verizon Center. His three
shutouts have come in his last four appearances on home ice. His sustained level of performance has
allowed him to climb into the top five in goals against average (2.14/5th),
save percentage (.925/4th), shutouts (6/2nd), and minutes (2,634/1st). Holtby also has a fine record against Metropolitan
Division teams. In 17 appearances he is
10-3-4, 2.10, .927 with four shutouts, one of them coming in a 1-0 Caps win
over the Flyers on January 14th.
Holtby is 4-2-4, 3.01, .900, with two shutouts in 11 career appearances
against Philadelphia.
In the end…
The Caps have an opportunity with this contest. A win over a division rival would be
satisfying, but two points could leave the Caps tied with the Pittsburgh
Penguins at the top of the Metropolitan Division by day’s end. A win would also allow the Caps to maintain some
space over the New York Rangers, no less than a two point lead that would be important
given that the Rangers would hold three games in hand on the Caps after
tomorrow’s games (the Rangers face the Dallas Stars on Sunday). A division rival, a crowded group jockeying
for position at the top of the division, getting some measure of payback for
the overtime loss the Flyers pinned on the Caps a month ago. They should not lack for motivation.
Capitals 4 – Flyers 2
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