The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals complete their New York Dads Trip on
Monday night when they head to Brooklyn and a contest with the New York
Islanders at Barclays Center. It is a
game that has more than the usual importance that a divisional matchup of teams
separated by only three points in the standings might have. It will be the first time that the Caps and
Islanders head coach Barry Trotz shared the same ice sheet since the Capitals,
under Trotz’ direction, won the Stanley Cup in Las Vegas last June 7th. It will be the first time the Caps faced
Trotz as an opposing coach since Trotz’ Nashville Predators beat the Caps in a
Gimmick, 4-3, back on March 30, 2014.
The Islanders have shown themselves to be an inhospitable
host, going 6-2-2 in ten home games so far this season. They have done is largely by being stingy in
allowing goals at home. The 26 goals
allowed in ten home games is the sixth-fewest in the league and third-fewest in
the Eastern Conference. What makes the
goals allowed total a bit odd is the manner in which goalies have been deployed
by Trotz. The goalie assignments have
largely split into the “home” goalie (Thomas Greiss) and the “road” goalie
(Robin Lehner), despite the fact that Lehner has better home numbers than
Greiss in fewer appearances.
Greiss has eight starts in ten home games, but his 2.64
goals against average and .915 save percentage pale a bit next to his 5-2-1
win-loss record and rank in the middle of the pack among goalies in home
performance (22nd in goals against average and 23rd in
save percentage among goalies with at least 200 home minutes played). His performances more recently have been more
successful, though. Seven of his last
eight appearances have come at Barclays Center, and in those seven games Greiss
has a record of 5-1-1, 2.45, .924, and one shutout. On the other hand, Lehner has only three
appearances on home ice this season and has not started a game at Barclays
Center since October 24th, but he does have a 1-0-1, 2.36, .933 record on home
ice. Greiss is 2-1-1, 2.49, .926 in four
career appearances against the Caps, while Lehner is 1-3-1, 2.60, .913 in five
career games against the Caps.
If you had Anthony Beauvillier as the leading goal-getter on
home ice for the Islanders through ten home games this season, go buy a lottery
ticket. There he sits, though, with five
goals in ten games. The 28th
overall pick of the 2015 entry draft is in his third season with the Islanders,
and last year he posted his first career 20-goal season with 21 scores in 71
games. Most of his home production so far this season came
in a single game, a hat trick and four points in 7-5 win over the New York
Rangers on November 15th.
However, that game started a three game home goal streak that he will
bring into this contest (5-1-6), the only home games in which he has points
this season. In seven career games
against the Caps, Beauvillier is 0-1-1, even.
Another lesser known performer on home ice is Scott
Mayfield, who leads all Islander defensemen in goals scored (three) and points
(four) on home ice. Since he was drafted
in the second round by the Islanders in the 2011 entry draft, his progress has
been slow but steady. He spent parts of
four seasons with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers in the NHL and parts of three
getting a glimpse of the NHL before appearing in 47 games with the Isles last
year. It was a season in which he tied a
career high in goals (two), and set career highs in assists (ten) and points (12). This season, he has already set a new career
high in goals, the three he has (all at home) being almost as many as the rest
of the defense combined (four). He also
has seven assists, closing in on the career best he set last season. Mayfield does not have a point in three
career games against Washington
1. The Islanders have
the second lowest shots on goal per game (27.9) in the league. Only the Anaheim Ducks have a lower average
(27.0).
2. Shorthanded goals
do not figure to be a feature of this game.
The Islanders have only one shorthanded goal this season (as do the
Caps), while only Vegas and Dallas have fewer (none).
3. Only three teams
have averaged more penalty minutes per game than the Islanders (10:40) –
Vancouver (11:34), Boston (11:36), and Winnipeg (12:40).
4. No team in the
league has taken fewer faceoffs than New York so far this season (1,266).
5. The Islanders have
the fourth-worst shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (45.88) in the league.
1. Dmitry Orlov has
one of the more bizarre home-road splits.
In 12 home games, Orlov is 0-1-1, even, while in 11 road games he is
2-6-8, yet a minus-6.
2. Matt Niskanen is
also a minus-6 on the road. The Orlov-Niskanen defensive pair is the only one with minus
numbers on the road this season.
3. The Caps and the
Winnipeg Jets are the only teams in the league with four players with ten or
more power play points.
4. It does not seem
to matter much whether the Caps out-shoot or are out-shot by opponents. Good thing, too. Washington has a 8-4-2 record when out-shot
by opponents, 5-2-1 when out-shooting them (they have one loss when the shots
are even).
5. The Caps are
ranked seventh in both winning percentage when scoring first (.778/7-2-0) and
when scored upon first (.429/6-5-3).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Mathew Barzal
In his first 22 games in his rookie season last year, Mathew
Barzal was averaging a point a game (6-16-22) on his way to the Calder Trophy
as the league’s top rookie. He almost on
that pace through 22 games this season (20 points), but his three-goal total is half
of what it was at this point last season.
His contributions do matter to the Islanders, who are 9-5-1 in the 15
games in which he registered a point, 3-3-1 in the seven games in which he was
blanked on the score sheet. The odd part
of that split is that Barzal is 4-2-1 in seven home games in which he has at
least one point, 2-0-1 in the three games he did not record a point. And, only twice
in 10 home games has he been a “plus” player.
It gets even stranger when looking at his shots on goal. In 12 games in which Barzal recorded at least
two shots on goal, the Isles are 5-6-1.
They are 7-2-1 in those games in which he had one or no shots on
goal. His is an odd profile, indeed. Barzal is 1-3-4, minus-2, in five career games
against the Caps.
Washington: Braden Holtby
Braden Holtby has had an interesting and unusual start to
the season in goal for the Caps. Of his
16 appearances so far, 11 of them have been on home ice, where he thrives, going
6-3-1, 2.51, .922 with his only shutout of the season. On the road, he has struggled to find his
footing in a comparatively low number of appearances. In just five appearances on the road so far,
Holtby is 2-2-1, 3.62, .894. It is not
unlike his career home-road split (2.21/.925 at home, 2.68/.913 on the road),
but it is more pronounced. Perhaps the
strangest part of Holtby’s road record to start the season is that the only
instance in which he had a save percentage over .920 came in a relief role,
when he stopped all 22 shots he faced in relief of Pheonix Copley in a 5-4 overtime win over the Montreal
Canadiens in his most recent road appearance.
And while he has had a history of success with high shot volumes, that
has not been the case on the road. Three
times he faced more than 30 shots on the road so far, and he is looking for his first
win in that situation (0-2-1, 5.01, .870).
Holtby is 14-4-3, 2.46, .919 in 21 career appearances against the Islanders.
In the end…
It is hard to tell from game to game which Islander defense
will show up on home ice. It is a team
that has held opponents under two goals three times in ten games with two
shutouts. On the other hand, they
allowed opponents four or more goals three times, including two of their last
three games at Barclays Center. On the
other side, the Caps have five goals scored in three of their last five road
games and five or more in five of their 11 road games this season. Even with the absences of Evgeny Kuznetsov
and T.J. Oshie, the Caps are a formidable offensive team that is enjoying
perhaps its best stretch of the season.
Capitals 5 – Islanders 2
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