The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their back-to-back set of
games to start the week when they visit Nashville and the Predators at
Bridgestone Arena. The Caps will be
looking to avoid their second three-game losing streak in their past nine
games.
The Predators defeated the Caps, 6-3, in the last game on the
2018 portion of Washington’s schedule.
The Preds then went on to earn points in an additional six consecutive
games to start the 2019 portion of their schedule before being blown out, 6-3,
by the Carolina Hurricanes in the last game of a six-game road trip.
On a club with the likes of Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen
as dependable scorers, it might be a bit of surprise that the leading scorer
for the Predators in the new year so far is defenseman Mattias Ekholm. He is the only player since January 1st
to average at least a point per game (3-6-9 in seven games). A fourth-round draft pick of the Predators in
2009, Ekholm has given occasional, if not consistent hints that he could be a
very good offensive defenseman. In 2015-2016
he finished with eight goals and 35 points, the point total almost doubling his
output from the previous season (18).
However, he then slipped to three goals and 23 points the following
season. Last year, he rebounded to a
10-24-34, plus-25 year. This season he
is improving on those numbers. In 46
games he already has six goals and 34 points and is a plus-19, tenth in the
league among defensemen through Sunday’s games.
Multi-point games have been Ekholm’s stock and trade of late. Before he was shutout on the score sheet in
the loss to Carolina on Sunday, he had four straight two-point games and had
five in seven games. He is 3-9-12,
plus-5, in his last nine games. Ekholm
is 3-5-8, plus-3, in ten career games against the Capitals.
Viktor Arvidsson leads the club in goals since January 1st
(five). He is another fourth-round draft
pick of the club (112th overall in 2014) whose rise to the NHL could
be described as impressive. He spent
most of the 2014-2015 season in the AHL with the Milwaukee Admirals but did get
six games with the Preds. The following
season he dressed for 56 games with Nashville. However, it was in 2016-2017
where he blossomed, recording 31 goals, becoming only the third player in team
history to record a 30-plus goal season at age 23 or younger (Filip Forsberg
did it twice, and Patric Hornqvist did it once). He followed that up with a 29-goal season
last year, and even though he has been limited to 23 games this season due to
injury (broken thumb), he is scoring goals at a faster pace – 14 in 23 games, the
first time in his career to date he is averaging more than half a goal per game
(0.61). Arvidsson is 3-3-6, plus-1, in
eight career games against Washington.
In goal, head coach Peter Laviolette has a difficult choice
based on his netminders’ records against the Caps. Pekka Rinne is a perennial focus of Vezina
Trophy talk, and his record against the Caps – 5-1-0, 2.50, .910 – is very
good. However, he has had issues stopping
the puck lately. Over his last 13
appearances Rinne is 4-6-2 (one no-decision), 3.32, .888, with one
shutout. He has lost his last two
decisions (0-1-1), allowing nine goals on 53 shots (.830 save percentage).
Enter Juuse Saros. He
also has a good record against the Caps (2-0-0, 2.50, .914) although that comes
in only two appearances against Washington.
What argues for his consideration in this contest is his record over his
last five games. Since December 15th,
Saros is 3-0-1 (one no-decision), 0.71, .975, with one shutout.
1. Nashville has a
tendency to give up shorthanded goals.
They have allowed seven this season; only four teams (and only one in
the West – Los Angeles) have allowed more.
2. The Predators need
to control their bench. They have been
hit with nine bench penalties this season; only Minnesota (10) and St. Louis
(12) have more.
3. Expect frequent
stoppages of play with Nashville. They
have taken 2,892 faceoffs this season, second-most in the league behind Detroit
(2,987).
4. If Nashville takes
a lead into the first intermission, it’s a good bet that they win. They just do not do it particularly
often. Fourteen times in 47 games they
had a first intermission lead, 12 times they won (12-1-1). Their .857 winning percentage is fifth-best
in the league.
5. Continuing the “front-runner”
theme, the Predators have the second-best record in the league when scoring
first (21-2-1/.875), trailing only the Calgary Flames (22-3-0/.880).
1. The Caps have had
trouble keeping Central Division teams from scoring this season, and especially
lately. Four times in nine games against
the Central so far this season, including last night’s 4-1 loss to St. Louis,
the Caps allowed four or more goals, and they have done so three times in their
last four games against that division (twice to St. Louis, once to Nashville).
2. Allowing power
play goals against the Central has also been an issue. In those nine games against that division,
the Caps have allowed a power play goal in six of them. They are 2-0-1 in the three games they did
not allow one, 1-4-1 in the games in which they did allow one.
3. Hits don’t matter
against the Central for the Caps, at least not in a good way. Four times in nine games the Caps were
credited with 25 or more hits. They lost
all of them (0-2-2).
4. Blocked shots have
been a different matter. Four times in nine
games against the Central the Caps recorded 18 or more blocked shots. They were 3-0-1 in them. They are 0-4-1 in the five games they
recorded fewer than 18 blocked shots.
5. The Caps are
looking to avoid a third straight loss in Nashville. They are 1-4-1 in their last six visits to
Nashville after going 4-3-0 with one tie in their first eight visits to
Tennessee. Washington has been
out-scored, 25-17 in that recent 1-4-1 run.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Nashville: Kevin Fiala
Kevin Fiala has had a bit of an odd year for the Nashville
Predators. The forward is fourth on the
team in points (27) overall and third in power play points (seven). However, despite logging only 15:28 per game
in ice time, ninth among Predator forwards, he is a team-worst minus-8. It is not even close, either (Kyle Turris is
minus-3), and only five of 26 Predator skaters are minus players at all). Most of the “minus” on Fiala’s ledger was
posted in his first 11 games, when he was just 1-2-3 but a minus-6. He has been a lot more productive and
effective lately, though. In 36 games
since that slow start, Fiala is 7-17-24, minus-2, but he is 2-8-10, plus-4 in
his last nine games. Only twice in those
nine games did he fail to record a point.
Fiala is 1-3-4, plus-2, in five career games against Washington.
Washington: Nicklas Backstrom
Over a seven-game stretch straddling the end of November and
the beginning of December, Nicklas Backstrom went 4-9-13, plus-9, and had three
games with three or more points. Since
then, however, he is 1-6-7, even, in 14 games and is without a multi-point game
in that stretch. He has just one power
play point (an assist). The Caps are 8-4-2
in those 14 games (he also missed a 5-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers due to
illness), but as the Caps take a 3-3-2 record over their last eight games into
Nashville, Backstrom is just 1-1-2, minus-1 in seven of those contests. He is, however, the Caps’ leading
point-getter against Central Division teams this season (2-5-7 in nine games),
and he is the only Capital with more than one power play point (1-1-2). Backstrom is 4-14-18, minus-5, in 18 career
games against Nashville.
In the end…
Everything here points to a Capitals loss. They are almost sleepwalking through this
part of the schedule, they are on the road for the back half of a back-to-back
set of games, it is their third game in four nights, they might not be entirely
healthy, and they don’t do very well in Nashville, which is a formidable opponent
anywhere. The Caps have the Predators
precisely where they want them.
Capitals 3 – Predators 2
No comments:
Post a Comment