“I have always been delighted at the prospect of a new day,
a fresh try, one more start, with perhaps a bit of magic waiting somewhere
behind the morning.”
-- J. B. Priestley
Richard Panik has been one of those hockey players over the
course of his career that are uncommonly common. First, you have to realize that if you play
hockey at the NHL level for any length of time, you’re among the best 500 or so
players on the planet. Fans sometimes
forget this. On the other hand, there
are a fair number of players who accumulate a volume of games by virtue of
being, quite literally, “journeymen.”
Panik qualifies as such a player. Taken in the second round of the 2009 Entry
Draft (52nd overall) by the Tampa Bay Lightning, he worked his way
up through juniors and minor league hockey to join the Lightning in
2012-2013. After two seasons in Florida,
he was waived in October 2014 and claimed by the Toronto Maple Leafs. A year and a half later, he was traded to the
Chicago Blackhawks, where he lasted two seasons before he was traded to the
Arizona Coyotes. He played for a season
and change in Arizona and became an unrestricted free agent at the end of last
season. On the first day of the free
agency signing period last July, he signed a four-year contract with the
Washington Capitals for $11 million. The
Caps will be his fifth NHL team as he embarks on his eighth NHL season.
What Panik has accomplished along his hockey journey is
improve his top-end performance numbers.
He was not an especially prolific goal scorer in either of his first two
stops, averaging 0.11 goals per game in Tampa and 0.14 goals per game in
Toronto. But he did ramp up that
production in his last two stops, averaging 0.23 goals per game in Chicago and
0.20 goals per game in Arizona. But last
season in Arizona was an odd one for Panik, too. He started slowly (0-1-1, minus-3, in his
first seven games) and ended slowly (1-1-2, minus-1, in his last 11 games). In the 57 games in between, he was a very
productive 13-17-30, plus-1. It might
not have been a coincidence that Arizona was 29-23-5 in those 57 games, while
the Coyotes went 6-9-3 in the games that made up Panik’s slow start and finish.
Odd Panik Fact…
In his first three seasons, Richard Panik totaled 177 shots
on goal in 151 games. In his first full
season with the Chicago Blackhawks (2016-2017), his fifth career season, he
recorded 155 shots on goal. He did not
reach 100 shots on goal in any of his first four seasons, but he has not
recorded fewer than 136 in any of his last three seasons.
Fearless’ Take…
Richard Panik is a fairly efficient shooter. Only once in seven seasons was his shooting
percentage under 10 percent (2013-2014, when he was 5.4 percent on 114 shots in
50 games with Tampa Bay). And, he has 50
goals in 229 games over his last three seasons.
This is a useful benchmark if you are thinking of Panik as a replacement
for Brett Connolly at right wing on the third line. Connolly had 52 goals in 217 games in his
three seasons with the Caps. What Panik
added over the last three seasons in Chicago and Arizona that Connolly did not
in Washington was assists. He had 62 in
229 games, while Connolly had 44 in 217 games.
Line assignments and linemate skills in converting chances matter here,
but it might be something to watch with Panik on the third line, if that is his
role.
Cheerless’ Take…
Brett Connolly was not a penalty killer for the Caps, a role
one might envision for a bottom six forward who does not get a lot of even
strength ice time or power play chances.
But Panik was sixth among Arizona forwards in shorthanded ice time per
game last season (1:12 per game). It was
more than he had in his brief stint with the Coyotes to end the 2017-2018
season (22 seconds per game). In his
previous stop, in Chicago, he skated a total of 21 seconds of shorthanded ice
time over 149 games. Although the Caps
do bring back five forwards who averaged more than a minute of shorthanded ice
time per game last season (Carl Hagelin, Lars Eller, Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd, and
Chandler Stephenson), penalty killing is something that could use
improvement. The question remains if he
will have such a penalty killing role with the Caps, and if so, how much of
one.
Potential Milestones:
- 100 career goals (75; he needs 25)
- 100 career assists (84; he needs 16)
- 200 career points (159; he needs 41)
The Big Question… Richard Panik might be able to replace
Brett Connolly’s production, but can he replace his chemistry?
Managing personnel in a sport that has as much roster turnover
as one finds in the NHL seems to be equal parts science and art. Especially among bottom six forwards, one can
find a player to replace another with similar statistical profiles, but whether
outcomes with the new player will be as successful as those with the old are
harder to predict. Brett Connolly was
something of a disappointment in previous stops as a former high first round
draft pick that did not perform to that level.
However, he found a stable role with the Caps – third line right wing
with almost entirely even strength responsibility – and flourished in it.
Richard Panik is equally well-traveled, but he is a different
sort of player than Connolly, less an offense-oriented, efficient goal scoring
type than he is a balanced player, both in terms of goals scored and assists
passed out, and perhaps being more of a two-way player, even if he does not get
a significant penalty killing load.
Whether he fits into the third line right wing role as comfortably as
Connolly left it is an issue that comes with roster turnover, and it is
magnified on a team that expect to contend for a Stanley Cup.
In the end…
Richard Panik is a player with a lot of tools in his tool
kit. He does not use them as an elite
artisan as much as he does a good craftsman.
He scores goals, he passes out assists, he has good possession
numbers. In that respect, he is probably
a more rounded player than the one he appears to be replacing – Brett Connolly –
and that might make for a player who can weather offensive slumps better
because he can rely on other talents to contribute at both ends of the
ice. Fresh in the memory of Capitals
Nation is how well the bottom six forward corps performed on its way to the
Stanley Cup in 2018 (27 goals in 24 games from players who occupied bottom six
roles) and how much less productive it was last spring in the opening round
against Carolina (five goals in seven games).
If Panik can approximately replace Connolly’s production and contribute
more of a two way game, perhaps the Capitals will find themselves better able
to weather slumps in the postseason than they were last spring.
Projection: 77 games, 13-17-30, plus-2
Photo: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America
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