“Ambition is the path to success. Persistence is the vehicle
you arrive in.”
-- Bill Bradley
If you look at the last three seasons and the players who
skated their first three NHL seasons over them, Jakub Vrana’s place among goal
scorers is not impressive. In 176 games
over those three seasons he has 40 goals, tied for 28th in this
cohort with the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal. His goals per game is not a lot better, at
0.23 goals per game ranking 26th in this group.
However, it is not so much the total as the progress for
Vrana that is more impressive. In his
first three seasons he has gone from three goals in 21 games to 13 goals in 73
games to 24 goals in 82 games last season.
That progress resembles, if not in totals then in magnitude, similar
progress in his first three seasons by a Capital that we think Vrana resembles
– Peter Bondra. In his first three
seasons with the Caps, Bondra went from 12 goals in 54 games his rookie season
in 1990-1991 to 28 goals in 71 games to 37 goals in 83 games (1992-1993 was an
84-game season).
Vrana tended to get points in bunches last season. He recorded at least one point in 37
games. Nine times he recorded points in
at least two consecutive games, three times getting points in three consecutive
games, accounting for 21 of the 37 games.
But he did have an odd thing about his goal scoring. Only 17 players in the league recorded
multi-goal games in two or more losses.
Vrana was one of them. In fact,
the Caps lost two of the three games in which he had two goals, both times on the road.
Odd Vrana Fact…
Jakub Vrana is the only player in franchise history to
record three or more goals in his first season in the NHL and have all of them
be power play goals. He was
three-for-three in power play goals/total goals in 2016-2017.
Bonus Odd Vrana Fact…
Jakub Vrana was one of nine players in the league last
season to take a single shootout shot, score a single shootout goal, and have
that be the game-deciding goal. He is
the only player in team history to have taken one career shootout shot, score,
and have it be the game-deciding goal.
It took place on December 14, 2018, in a 6-5 win over the Carolina Hurricanes.
Fearless’ Take…
In the post-2004-2005 lockout era, three Capitals totaled at
least 40 goals in their first three seasons: Alex Ovechkin (163), Nicklas
Backstrom (69), and Jakub Vrana (40).
That is not bad company. What
might give fans the best sense of optimism about Vrana is the leap he took in
shooting efficiency in his third season.
After seasons of 9.4 percent (on 3-of-32 shooting in 21 games his first
season) and 9.8 percent (13-of-133 in 73 games), he finished at 14.9 percent
last season. It was not a case of being
finicky with shot selection, either. His
1.96 shots per game last season was actually up slightly from the previous
season (1.82 per game).
Cheerless’ Take…
Jakub Vrana was dead last among Capitals skaters in
shorthanded ice time logged last season.
Even Alex Ovechkin had more – 37 seconds to 30 for Vrana (yeah, those
are totals, not per game). No player
having appeared in a dozen or more games over the last three seasons has had
less shorthanded ice time (46 seconds).
Potential Milestones:
- 200 career NHL games (176; he needs 24)
- 100 career NHL points (80; he needs 20)
- Top 50 in franchise history in goals scored (40; he needs 20, unless Tom Wilson (57) and/or Lars Eller (43) get there first)
The Big Question… Is Jakub Vrana ready to take his place
among the “snipers” in Capitals history?
Acknowledging that this depends on how one defines “sniper,”
this would be a prolific goal scorer whose goal totals are greater than his
assist totals over time, and do so with efficiency. In that regard, we would not include Alex
Ovechkin, despite his being the top goal scorer of his era and having more
goals (658) than assists (553). At 12.6
percent shooting, he is efficient, but relies more on shot volumes to
accumulate goals. For our purposes, the
population for comparison is Mike Gartner (397 goals/392 assists/14.0 percent
shooting), Peter Bondra (472/353/14.3), and Alexander Semin (three of six full
seasons with goals higher than assists and 14.1 percent shooting).
Vrana has 40 goals and 40 assists on 12.3 percent career
shooting, but he was at 14.9 percent last season. Given his progress it is reasonable to ask if
this season, at age 23, he can challenge or surpass the 30-goal mark and
whether this will become a standard of his performance for years to come. It is hard to compare eras, but Bondra did
not pass 30 goals until his age 24 year (his third in the NHL), while Gartner
was a 30-goal scorer out of the gate (by he did have a pro season in the World
Hockey Association before joining the Caps).
Semin passed 30 goals in his first full season with the club, but he did
it only twice more in five more seasons with the Caps and totaled only 41 goals
in four seasons after leaving Washington.
The point here is that while 30 goals might be a standard, it can be
hard to sustain, especially in the contemporary era.
What works against Vrana in this regard is that he does not,
and is unlikely to get much power play time in the “right-handed” Capitals
power play scheme that sets things up on the right side of the formation,
largely with the aim of feeding right-handed shooting Alex Ovechkin on the left
side for one-timers. However, Vrana’s
goal scoring progress has been impressive, and he is one of only five Capitals
since 2005-2006 to record at least the 23 even strength goals he had last
season (Ovechkin (12 times), Semin (twice), T.J. Oshie, and Mike Knuble are the
others). He can challenge that 30-goal
mark, but he might need some help (more power play ice time) and/or luck to get
there.
In the end…
Jakub Vrana is among the most gifted creators in the
offensive end in memory. His combination
of speed, shooting ability, and opportunism calls to mind, in our opinion, Peter
Bondra from years past with this franchise.
That is not to say Vrana has 50-goal seasons or a 400-plus goal career
with the Caps ahead of him. This is a
different era from that in which Bondra played, and Bondra was the go-to goal
scorer on his squads, a role Vrana will not occupy as long as Alex Ovechkin is
a Capital. But to the extent he can
provide that next level threat, he will be an extremely valuable asset on a
club where scoring balance could be an important ingredient to the team’s
success this season and for seasons to come.
As much will depend on his persistence in reaching that level as if does
his talent.
Projection: 82 games, 28-28-56, plus-16
Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America
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