Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas

“Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.”
-- Napoleon Bonaparte

 

One-for-one, player-for-player trades are not altogether common in the NHL.  Less so position-for-position.  Even less so such trades within a division between long-time rivals.  And right after the 2018-2019 season ended?  Those were the circumstances that converged on June 14, 2019, when the Caps traded defenseman Matt Niskanen to the Philadelphia Flyers, straight up, for defenseman Radko Gudas.  In the trade, the Caps got younger (Gudas was 29, Niskanen was 32), cheaper (Gudas had a cap hit of $3.35 million entering the last year of his contract; Niskanen carried a $5.75 million cap hit for two more seasons).  And there was evidence that Gudas’ underlying numbers were superior.  The trade looked pretty good from the Caps’ side of the exchange.

When Gudas opened the season with five assists and only two “minus” games in his first 15 games as a Cap, one could almost forget he was most recently a Flyer. But then, things started to slowly unravel.  He had one point (an assist) in his next dozen games and posted a minus-1 rating.  He did rebound to go 2-6-8, plus-11 in his next 18 games, but he was 0-1-1, minus-1 in ten games after that when his string of consecutive games in the lineup ended at 55 games, over which he was 2-13-15, plus-20.  Gudas dressed for only eight of the last 14 games of the regular season, going without a point and posting a minus-5 rating.

Fearless’ Take…

Gudas was another of those players who exhibited something of a “countercyclical” relationship with respect to ice time.  Not a particularly effective offensive contributor, he would not be in the lineup in games the Caps trailed.  On the other hand, he would be getting more minutes when the Caps were more successful, meaning the team’s 12-2-2 record when he logged 18 or more minutes was not surprising.  

Cheerless’ Take…

The deterioration of Gudas’ production over the course of the season was unfortunate, especially since the early part of the season made the trade for Niskanen look like a stroke of genius.  It took Gudas a while to record his first goal (he went his first 36 games without one), but he was still 1-11-12, plus-18, over his first four ten-game segments.  But he started slipping in the fifth segment (1-1-2, plus-4) and fell hard in the last two segments (0-1-1, minus-7).  Not even his underlying numbers (shot attempts-for at 5-on-5) could help much.  He was 51.7 percent in the 2019 portion of the season, 50.7 percent in the 2020 portion of the season).

Odd Gudas Fact… Gudas had a reputation of being a player who sometimes – well, often – strayed outside the lines of the rule book, or at least civil behavior on the ice.  With the Caps this season, though, that seem to be little of a liability.  Washington was 11-3-1 in the games in which he was charged with at least one penalty.

Odd Gudas Fact II… In a related vein, those 15 games in which he was charged with at least one penalty was a significant reduction from last season in Philadelphia, in which he was hit with penalties in 24 games (the Flyers were just 9-11-4 in those games).

Game to Remember… January 7, 2020.  The headlines after the Caps’ game against the Ottawa Senators on January 7^th would focus on Alex Ovechkin scoring a pair of goals to tie Teemu Selanne for 11^th place on the all-time goal scoring list, but the night at Capital One Arena belonged to Radko Gudas in one respect.  His moment came in the second period, with the game tied, 1-1.  Jakub Vrana dug the puck out of a scrum just inside the offensive blue line and fed it into the corner for T.J. Oshie, who tried to feed Michal Kempny pinching down into the right wing circle.  The pass was led too far for Kempny, but he tracked the puck down and fed it back to Evgeny Kuznetsov at the right point.  Walking the puck along the blue line to the middle, he fed Gudas for a one-timer from the top of the left-wing circle that beat goalie Craig Anderson cleanly to give the Caps a lead they would not relinquish on their way to a 6-1 win.  It was Gudas’ first (and only) game-winning goal with the Caps and his first game-winner since the 2015-2016 season with the Flyers, ending a streak of 270 games without one.

Game to Forget… March 4, 2020.  Players traded away always like to come back and make a point that they might have made a mistake in letting them go.  For Radko Gudas, though, facing his previous employer had not been anything to put in the scrapbook.  In three games against the Flyers he had yet to record a point, had an “even” rating, had (oddly enough) yet to record a penalty minute, and managed only two blocked shots in averaging about 18 minutes a game.  The fourth and final meeting of the regular season did not go any better.  After the Caps took a 1-0 lead to the first intermission on a goal by Lars Eller, the Flyers scored three goals in a span of ten minutes in the second period to take a 3-1 lead.  Gudas was on ice for each of the three goals in a span of four shifts that he skated.  He did not record a shot attempt and finished minus-2 in 12:24 of ice time (his third lowest of the season), leaving him 0-0-0, minus-2, averaging 16:27 a game against his former team.

Postseason…

Gudas’ participation in the postseason was sporadic.  He appeared in two of the three round robin games, posting an assist in each, losses to Tampa Bay and the Flyers.  He dressed for three of the five games in the opening round loss to the Islanders, going without a point and posting a minus-1 rating to go along with one shot on goal while averaging 15:39 in ice time.  It continued what has been a more or less disappointing experience in the postseason for Gudas, who wrapped up his season having yet to score a goal and posting three assists with a minus-5 rating in 20 playoff games in his career.

Looking Ahead…

Radko Gudas now heads into unrestricted free agency, his first opportunity to do so.  He finds himself in a potentially difficult situation of a season in which his numbers deteriorated over time to such an extent he was a scratch almost as often as he received a sweater, and teams will be trying to manage under a flat cap for the 2020-2021 season, if and when it starts.  He is in a position similar to teammate Brenden Dillon – unrestricted free agents of roughly the same age (Gudas is 30, Dillon 29), similar cap hits in their final contract year (Gudas: $3.35 million; Dillon: $3.27 million), and with similar reputations as defensive/physical defensemen with limited offensive upside.  The Caps almost certainly will not keep both, and they might not keep either, but if a choice is to be made, it would not be surprising to see the Caps re-sign Dillon before re-signing Gudas.

In the end…

In some respects, Gudas was the player one might have expected, and in others he was not.  His goals/assists/points per game with the Caps (0.03/0.21/0.24) closely resembled what he posted for the Flyers last season 90.05/0.21/0.26) and with Philadelphia the previous season (0.03/0.20/0.23).  In fact, his season with the Caps looked a lot like his three years with Tampa Bay to open his career (0.06/0.20/0.25; amounts do not sum due to rounding) and his four years overall with the Flyers (0.06/0.19/0.25).  But this season was the fourth consecutive season he experienced a drop in penalty minute per game.  From 1.53 with the Flyers in 2015-2016, he dropped to 1.39, 1.19, and 0.82 last season before posting 0.63 penalty minutes per game with the Caps this season.  His game appears to have mellowed over the years, and his season with the Caps faltered considerably after a promising start.  It might not be the best of profiles to carry into unrestricted free agency after what seems destined to be his only season with the Capitals.

Grade: C+

Photo: Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images

 

 

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Defensemen: Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas

“The more successful the villain, the more successful the picture.”

-- Alfred Hitchcock

If a hockey game is a drama played out in three acts 82 times a season, Radko Gudas seems to have been cast as a villain in the production.  Not that he hasn’t played the role successfully.  Since he came into the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2012-2013 season, only thre defensemen have accumulated more penalty minutes than Gudas (579) – Dustin Byfuglien (661), Dion Phaneuf (609), and Mark Borowiecki (587).  He and Erik Gudbranson are the only defensemen over that period to have been charged with two match penalties.  Only Byfuglien has been hit with more misconduct penalties (12) than Gudas (eight), and only Erik Johnson can match the four game misconducts he earned over those seven seasons.  He has been suspended by the league four times for a total of 21 games.

The odd thing about Gudas’ game, though, he how much more refined it has become with time.  Of those 579 penalty minutes, 268 of them came in two seasons – 2013-2014 with Tamp Bay (152) and 2015-2016 with Philadelphia (116), both of which were his first full seasons with those respective teams, perhaps signaling a desire to make a point, or at least an impression.  Since that 2015-2016 season with the Flyers, though, Gudas’ penalty minute totals have been in continuous decline – 93 minutes in 67 games (1.39 per game) in 2016-2017, 83 minutes in 2017-2018 (1.19), and 63 in 77 games last season (0.82).

Time did play a part in his performance with the Flyers last year in another way.  Philadelphia was 6-5-0 in games in which Gudas skated more than 20 minutes, so you might expect they were better when he had a light ice time load.  That was not the case.  The Flyers were 11-13-3 in the 27 games in which he skated less than 17 minutes.

Odd Gudas Fact…

Despite recording a game-winning goal in each of his first four NHL seasons, four out of a total of nine goals scored, he does not have a game-winner in any of his last three seasons out of a total of 12 goals scored.

Bonus Odd Gudas Fact…

In 77 games played for the Flyers last season, Gudas was not credited with a hit in only four of them.

Fearless’ Take…

For a player with a reputation as a bruiser, Radko Gudas’ numbers other than those involving penalties and hits and the like are quite respectable.  He is not a big producer on offense, but he was one of five defensemen with 20 or more points for the Flyers last season (4-16-20).  His plus-6 rating was tops among Flyer defenseman and the only “plus” defenseman among the six who appeared in at least 30 games.  His individual shot attempts-for percentages were decent as well.  He was third among Flyer defensemen in overall SAT percentage (49.60 percent; minimum: 30 games) and third in tied situations (49.12 percent).  Last year was the first in his last five seasons (four with Philadelphia, one with Tampa Bay) that he finished under 50 percent in the overall category.

Cheerless’ Take…

Can’t say Gudas being engaged in the offensive end was a big deal.  The Flyers were 10-10-1 in games in which he had three or more shots on goal last season.  Then again, at the other end they were 5-7-3 in the 15 games in which he didn’t record a shot on goal.  Did being physical matter?   Well, to a point.  The Flyers were 10-2-2 in games in which Gudas was credited with five hits, but with more than five hits they were 4-4-1.  Paying a price?  In 23 games in which he had three or more blocked shots, the Flyers were 7-10-6.  One had the feeling that the less one noticed Gudas, statistically, the better the team did.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career assists (81; he needs 19)
• Top-20 all time in points by a defenseman born in Czech Republic (105; he needs 30 to tie Jan Hejda (135))
• Top-20 all time in goals by a defenseman born in Czech Republic (24; he needs one to tie Hejda (25)
• Top-10 all time in penalty minutes by a defenseman born in Czech Republic (579; he needs 40 to tie Roman Polak (619))

The Big Question… Will the view that Radko Gudas is an improvement on Matt Niskanen be reflected on the ice?

Turnover is a regular feature of life in the NHL.  However, there are those instances in which a certain familiarity and culture takes root with a club.  In that respect, this is a big season for the Capitals and Radko Gudas.  The player for whom he was traded, Matt Niskanen, played for five seasons in Washington.  He was one of three defensemen who played for the club in each of those five seasons.  He and Brooks Orpik (retired) have departed, leaving John Carlson as the only member of that cohort left.

Niskanen was plagued by declining production over his last three seasons, while Gudas was displaying a consistency for the Flyers (albeit at a lower offensive level than Niskanen).  It seems likely  that Gudas will step into the spot alongside Dmitry Orlov on the second pair vacated by Niskanen.  An open question with that pair is whether any residual lack of discipline in Gudas game will expose Orlov’s game in ways it was not with Niskanen as his partner. 

The analysts seem to think Gudas is a clear improvement at both ends of the ice.  That the Caps were able to swing a deal for Gudas while the Flyers retained a substantial portion of his salary, leaving the Caps with half the cap hit in Gudas ($1.345 million) than Philadelphia has in Niskanen ($5.75 million, according to capfriendly.com), is a managerial plus.  But now, the task falls to Todd Reirden and the rest of the coaching staff to make sure the new piece is at least as good a fit as Niskanen was in Washington, even if that fit was a bit rough the last couple of years.

In the end…

Radko Gudas might be that player for whom the analyticals inform in a unique way.  Observationally, and for much of his career statistically, he has the profile of an edgy player who leans heavily on the physical game.  It has not been all that long since he was pronounced the NHL’s dirtiest player by one commentator.  But the folks who delve more deeply into a player’s underlying numbers paint a portrait of a defenseman who is underrated at both ends of the ice.  Gudas has been successful, individually, when perceived as a villain, but his teams have not been quite so successful.  He joins a contender with an opportunity to demonstrate that he can be the “reformed” villain who, while perhaps not quite entirely having been civilized, demonstrates those talents at both ends of the ice the analysts respect.

Projection: 75 games, 5-14-19, plus-3

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America