A TWO-Point Night: Caps 4 - Penguins 3

The Caps proved once again that: a) no lead is safe, and b) that they have issues to deal with, as they came back from a 3-0 deficit 22 minutes into the game to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins, 4-3.

Here are our take aways for the game…

- Pittsburgh came into the game as a bad five-on-five team. They finished the game as the worst five-on-five team in the league, giving up three goals for each one they score (they were outscored 4-0 at even strength last night).

- For all the talk of the stars – Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby – their effects were more subtle. Crosby, as one might expect, was sharp in directing the power play. Ovechkin was an important decoy on the winning goal…Marc-Andre Fleury had to know out of the corner of his eye that Ovechkin was lurking on the weak side when Boyd Gordon snapped the puck past him for the game-winner.

- We learned from the Pittsburgh TV crew that #14 for the Caps is “TOH-mee” Fleischmann (not Tomas, like it says in the program).

- Crosby didn’t play badly, but he was conspicuously involved in the Caps third and fourth goals, turning the puck over in the offensive zone and allowing the Caps to breakout (Nylander finishing off a pass from TOH-mee Fleischmann) and losing a faceoff to allow another breakout by the Caps (Gordon finishing with Ovechkin on the doorstep).

- Ovechkin didn’t play badly as much as he’s in one of those streaks when the puck just doesn’t find a hole. He had five shots and had four others blocked. He also had three hits...all, we think, on Evgeni Malkin, who wondered after the game, "Ovechkin is a great player, but every time he hits me - I don't know why." It’s because you have the puck, pal. Geez, you took nine shots…think folks won’t be paying attention?

- Speaking of shots…Malkin had nine, Crosby five, and the rest of the Penguins?...12.

- How hot is Alexander Semin? He is 4-4-8, +5 in his first four games. If you take the first four games of each of his previous three seasons and combined them, he was 6-3-9, +1.

- Alexander Ovechkin has two goals in four games…the same two goals after four games he had last year…and the same two goals in four games he had the year before that.

- For as much grief as Olaf Kolzig took last year for his inability to recover once he made an initial save, Jose Theodore is picking right up in that regard…that goal from Alex Gologoski (did this game set an early season high for Alexes on the ice?) was not what folks had in mind when Theodore was brought in.

- Today’s “do what you can when what you do isn’t working” award goes to Nicklas Backstrom. No goals, no assists, no points in 20-plus minutes of work, but he did have three shots on goal, had four others blocked, two hits, two blocked shots of his own, and won seven of 13 draws.

- Gotta give a round of applause to Matt Bradley. Paul Bissonnette is a load…he had 26 fights in the AHL last year (and another three in the ECHL for good measure), and he had four in this year’s preseason. He’s a practiced puncher. Bradley walked into one that got him a bloodied nose, but he came back out for the third and took four more shifts (generally his average per period).

- Eric Fehr quietly had an effective night with two assists, including the one (born out of fighting off Hal Gill for the puck) that sprang Gordon out of the Caps’ end of the ice for the winning goal.

- Kris Letang had a brutal night…-3, and he had a really good view of Fleischmann’s goal (late to cover him at the top of the crease) and of Fleischmann’s pass to Nylander for a goal (when he got turned around as the last man back and was late in stepping up on Fleischmann).

- Speaking of that goal, the setup actually came when Alexander Semin was crossing the blue line and found Fleischmann on the far side as Nylander was cutting between them. It was a superb play on Semin’s part.

- So far this year, the Caps have been outscored 8-4 in the first period. Fortunately, they’ve outscored opponents 8-2 in the second and 5-3 in the third. Here’s an idea…get off to better starts. Yeah, we know…easier said than done.

- The Caps have yielded seven power play goals in 24 opportunities. They’re not last in the NHL in penalty killing, but they can see it from there.

- Consistency…four…four…five…four. That’s the goals scored by the Caps so far.

- Tom Poti played 4:23 before departing with a groin injury. The Caps don’t have to call up a defenseman, but if they move Sergei Fedorov to the blue line, Chris Bourque might be getting a call.

- It’s early, so we’ll qualify this observation with the fact that there are 78 games to go, but the Penguins look an awful lot like the 2006-2007 Tampa Bay Lightning…a good team, not as good as the year before, and one that is very top heavy (in this case with centers) at forward. None of the wingers for the Penguins impressed last night, with the possible exception of Miroslav Satan, who was the right guy in the right place for a goal. Getting Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney can cure some of that problem, but they’re not wingers, and the Penguins are neither strong, nor deep at that position.

- So let’s see…the Caps beat guy they couldn’t beat with a baseball bat earlier in the week (Roberto Luongo)…they beat a team that beat them like a dusty rug the last three years (Pittsburgh). Next…Martin Brodeur, who is 32-12-4, 2.11, .913 in his career against Washington. This could be a nice week with a win on Saturday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, October 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, it is the first chapter of Volume IV in the continuing drama, “Ovechkin vs. Crosby.” The Caps travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins, and to get ready for the big game, we took a trip to the Mario Lemieux Memorial Home for Aged Penguins to see what brethren of the flightless foul thought about tonight’s contest…

Tennessee Tuxedo, you spent a lifetime trying to escape from the zoo, but you seem very much at home here.

“Well, Phineas J. Whoopee pays the rent, and the zoo closed long ago, so…”

About tonight’s game…the Penguins were Stanley Cup finalists last year, but lost a whole herd, flock, gaggle…what’s the right word here…

“How do I know? I’m a cartoon penguin…”

“Duhhhh…I think the word is ‘rookery,’ Tennuhsee…”

“Right you are, Chumley…what was the question?”

Will the Penguins repeat?

“The only thing they’ll be repeating this year is the herring and peanut butter sandwiches they have in the pregame meal.”

What’s that racket down the hall?

“Oh, that…that’s ‘The Penguin.’ He thinks he’s a mastermind criminal or something, but all he does is waddle around with an umbrella, quacking about some guy in tights named ‘Batman’...”

And they keep him locked up?

“Yeah…but Ray Shero was here the other day to see if he’d sign up to replace Jarkko Ruutu.”

And?

“The Penguin insisted on wearing that stupid top hat on the ice…”

Say?...who’s that walking down the hall?...Opus?...Opus!

“huh?”

Did we catch you coming out of the shower?

“No, I always walk around with a shower cap and a towel…”

He’s grumpier than I would have imagined…

“He’s been in a snit ever since he lost the lead in ‘March of the Penguins’”

There seem to be a lot of bitter penguins here…but here’s Chilly Willy, who we remember as a cute little guy who was kind of quiet and shy…Chilly, what do you think of…

“f*** off…”

Well, I guess that the ill will might be a product of the off season the Penguins had, when they lost Marian Hossa, Ryan Malone, Jarkko Ruutu, Ty Conklin, Georges Laraque, and Gary Roberts. That is almost a third of the players who dressed for the Penguins in the last game of the season, a 3-2 loss to Detroit in the Stanley Cup final (Georges Laraque has also departed). Add to that the fact that the Penguins are missing defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney to injury and that is more than a third of that final-game lineup needing to be replaced by new faces.

Those replacements start with Miroslav Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko to nominally replace Hossa and Malone on the wings. Combined, Satan and Fedotenko (32-42-84) barely replace Hossa’s 2007-2008 production (29-37-66). Neither provide the grittier play of a Ryan Malone.

With Gonchar and Whitney on the shelf, attention will turn to youngsters Kris Letang and Alex Gologoski. Neither have lacked for ice time in the three games the Penguins have played thus far. Gologoski has averaged just over 18 minutes a night, and Letang leads all defensemen with 23:48 a game.

Replacing Ruutu’s annoying qualities will be Matt Cooke, who spent a few weeks in Washington last spring. He hasn’t gotten off to a great start (one assist and -2 in four games), but he’s not there to be a scorer, either.

If there is a surprise in here, it is that Tyler Kennedy leads the Penguins in scoring (2-1-3). Kennedy had a decent, if unremarkable, rookie season last year (10-9-19, +2, in 55 games), but is the only Penguin with more than one goal and has one of the two game-winners that the Penguins have.

But the Penguins still have that core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and Marc-Andre Fleury. The three centers have not exploded out of the gate (a combined 1-6-7, +2), but that is as much a warning as anything else. Crosby is 7-12-19, +7 in 11 career games against Washington, Malkin is 4-8-12, +2 in eight games, and Staal is 3-1-4, +2 in eight games. Meanwhile, Marc-Andre Fleury has never lost to Washington – perfect in seven decisions – while posting a 1.98 GAA and .939 save percentage.

The Penguins still have the core down the middle, but they are thinner on the wings than last year and in ill-health on the blue line. It is a team that at the moment looks as if it is capable of much more inconsistency – a big night one night and going dormant the next. They have not yet had that big night, having failed to score more than three goals in regulation in any of their games thus far.

The Penguins are 10-1-1 against the Caps since the lockout (outscoring the Caps 50-34), 6-0-1 in one goal games, and 5-0-1 in Mellon Arena. However, the Caps currently lead the Penguins in scoring (4.33/game to 2.25/game), 5-on-5 goals ratio (1.33 to 0.60), and power play (26.7% to 12.5%). The Penguins lead the Caps in the defensive statistics (goals allowed, penalty kill, and faceoffs). It is perhaps equal parts the early stage of the season we’re in and the relative depth of these current rosters that the Caps are the more explosive team to date.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder…

Pittsburgh: Petr Sykora

After missing three games with a groin injury, Sykora returns to the lineup tonight. He had goals in each of the last two games against the Caps last year and is 7-14-21 in 34 career games against Washington.

Washington: Chris Clark

Clark missed three of the four games against the Penguins last year with his own groin problems, but he is 5-4-9 in 12 games against Pittsburgh in his career. He appears to be the replacement for injured Viktor Kozlov on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, so he should get opportunities to add to that total.

In the end, Washington this time around has too much depth for the depleted blue line corp for the Penguins to deal with. Fleury will be facing a ton of shots, and even if he is sharp, he can't stop them all...

Caps 5 - Penguins 3

2008-2009 Western Conference Prognostications

East was East, and this is West…

1. Detroit

The good: You won 54 games, had 115 points, won the Western Conference title, won the Stanley Cup champion, and you lost no one of critical importance. To this, you added Marian Hossa. Shouldn’t Congress be investigating this sort of thing? But that’s the splashy addition. The one the Wings don’t get enough attention (or credit) for is signing Ty Conklin, who pretty much saved Pittsburgh’s season last year when Marc-Andre Fleury went down with a high-ankle sprain. Detroit doesn’t rebuild, they don’t even reload. They just have oodles and oodles of guns.

The bad: We are of a mind that there are 20 games a team will win, no matter what. And, there are 20 games a team will lose, no matter what. The Red Wings lost 21 games last year, so they pretty much maxed out on that philosophy. Whether they do so this year will be a product of whether Chris Osgood is “as-good” in 60 games as he was in 43 (the number in which he played last year). But frankly, we’re stretching here. The Wings are loaded.

Outlook: It is extremely difficult to repeat as Stanley Cup champion these days, and that is the only standard that matters for the Wings (they are the last franchise to have repeated, in 1998). They might have a marginally tougher time within their division this year than they had last year – their competition has improved – but it won’t be so much as a speed bump to the playoffs.

2. San Jose

The good: San Jose is “Detroit-lite” (regular season version) in this respect – they finished second in the conference last year, didn’t really lose anyone of critical importance (unless you’re including the rental Brian Campbell), and added Dan Boyle from Tampa Bay to improve the power play. Evgeni Nabokov established himself (again…in the regular season…think there is something coming?) as a top-notch goaltender, and it seems unlikely that Jonathan Cheechoo will continue his free-fall in goal scoring (from 56 three years ago to 23 last year).

The bad: The Sharks have shown themselves to be little more than regular season wonders, and that falls squarely on the shoulders of Joe Thornton, fairly or not. He’s averaged 101 points a year over the last three years…he has a total of five goals in 35 playoff games over the same three seasons. Nabokov didn’t have a bad playoff – his statistics were roughly comparable to his regular season results – but he was inconsistent. In six of his first nine playoff games last year he allowed three or more goals. Until the big guys step up in the playoffs, they will continue to be something of a regular season wonder.

Outlook: On paper, San Jose is somewhat better than last year, but certainly not better in the same way Detroit is. The Sharks still, despite a change behind the bench to Todd McClellan, have the look of a team that will get 105 points, win a playoff series (maybe), then go out to the disappointment of their fans the head scratching of the hockey punditry.

3. Calgary

The good: Someone has to win the weak Northwest Division, and Calgary is as good a choice as any. The Flames have top-end talent in Jarome Iginla, Dion Phaneuf, and (if he plays to his 2006-2007 level, instead of last year’s) Miikka Kiprusoff. That should keep the Flames in most games. Adding Mike Cammaleri from Los Angeles should add some punch to a roster that was 14th in scoring last year.

The bad: When you are standing behind your eighth NHL bench, one might be forgiven for thinking that it is a matter of “when,” not “if” things will eventually end unpleasantly. That’s the case with Mike Keenan, who is in his second year in Calgary. He has never lasted more than four years at any stop and has lasted three or fewer in his last five postings. We guess that means he’s safe for this year, but don’t hold us to it.

Outlook: The Flames will be a rugged, in your face group, which is pretty much the way Kennan teams play. Kiprusoff has to play better this year than last to make this work, though. 39 wins isn’t bad, but Kiprusoff finished 28th in GAA and 30th in save percentage last year. Calgary found a way to scratch out enough offense to finish tied for 13th in scoring. But this doesn’t have the look – even with the addition of Todd Bertuzzi and Cammaleri – of being a team that will generate a lot of offense.

4. Dallas

The good: Last year, Dallas was a top ten team in scoring (9th) and defense (6th in goals allowed). That was with Brad Richards playing only 12 games after being obtained at the trading deadline from Tampa Bay. One figures he hasn’t lost his playmaking touch (an average of 73 assist/82 games played in his career coming into the year), and he can’t be as bad as the -27 he put up last year with Tampa Bay and Dallas. Then there is the matter of Sean Avery. He stands alone at the top of the heap of players whose eyes hockey fans would like to gouge out with a grapefruit spoon, but the Rangers were a better team with him than without him on the ice last year. That doesn’t figure to change in Dallas.

The bad: Does Mike Modano have anything left? He’s never had a 100-point season, but he’s only had 100 points the last two years combined. Perhaps more ominously, he was a team worst -11 (among players in Dallas for the entire year) last year. Dallas had career goal scoring years from Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribiero, and Niklas Hagman – all with 27 or more goals. If they can’t repeat that, it’s hard to tell from where Dallas is going to get any consistent goal scoring.

Outlook: If…If the Stars can get years out of Morrow, Ribiero, and Hagman that they got last year. If Richards returns to something that more closely resembles his better years in Tampa Bay. Then Dallas is the second best team in the West. But here is something to ponder…in the three years since the lockout the Stars have finished no worse than fourth in fewest shots allowed (second in each of the other years). This has masked a drop off in goaltender Marty Turco’s save percentage (no lower than .913 before the lockout, no better than .910 since). In Dallas, it’s the system. How they play it will be what to watch.

5. Anaheim

The good: Teemu Selanne is back for a full year after playing only 26 games last year. He had 12 goals in those 26 games, only slightly less than the pace he set when he scored 48 in 2006-2007 and 40 in 2005-2006. Scott Niedermayer is back for a full year after playing in only 48 games last year. Ryan Getzlaf appears to have arrived as a point-a-game player, and Corey Perry isn’t far behind. Through games of December 14 last year, Francois Beauchemin was -9. That’s important because Niedermayer rejoined the lineup on Deecember 16th. After that, Beauchemin was even though the rest of the year. Something to think about for this year, with Niedermayer with the Ducks from the start.

The bad: Goal scorers are an odd bunch. Consider Peter Bondra. He had 45 goals with the Caps in 2000-2001. Then he went 39-30-26-21-5 to end his career. Selanne is 38 years old. Is he getting to be about that age to see a slip? There really isn’t a lot more about this club one can think of as bad, or even potentially so. Neither do they look better.

The outlook: The Ducks are a veteran team (only three players younger than 25 on the opening night roster), which probably means few surprises. J-S Giguere is in the prime of his career, and his last two seasons reflect that (71 total wins, a combined GAA 2.18). This looks like a team built more for the playoffs than the regular season.

6. Minnesota

The good: Marian Gaborik hasn’t been traded (yet). Minnesota might have the best Niklas Backstrom in the NHL – 56 wins the last two years in goal, a GAA of 2.17, a save percentage over .920. This has been a team that has made the most with comparatively meager gifts, which suggests that Jacques Lemaire has done a whale of a job as coach. He’s still there.

The bad: The Wild had nine players in double digits in goal scoring last year. Three of them were not on the opening night roster, and the three missing players (Brian Rolston, Mark Parrish, and Pavol Demitra) were second, third, and fourth in goals last year. If Gaborik isn’t signed to a new deal and is traded, the Wild might not score again this year.

Outlook: Minnesota benefits from playing in a system that masks its talent weaknesses. They will be starved for offense, but it’s not as if pressing the attack is a governing philosophy of the club, anyway. The Wild play Lemaire’s system very well, and there is little reason to believe they will do otherwise this year.

7. Chicago

The good: Having Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews with a season’s worth of experience under their belts. Getting Martin Havlat – a guy who has averaged 30 goals per 82 games over his career – returning to the lineup. Adding Brian Campbell to the club to provide some punch and stability to the blue line, and to complement Brent Seabrook, who had a big leap forward last year (more than doubling his goals scored and improving his plus-minus by a +19).

The bad: They’ll need to sort out their goaltending situation. Cristobal Huet was signed for a bundle, but it’s not apparently clear that he’ll be the number one six months from now, with Nikolai Khabibulin lurking. Neither goaltender is devoid of issues. Khabibulin, for all of his big contract and a Stanley Cup (with Tampa Bay) has not won more than 30 games in ten years. Huet has won more than 30 once (last year) but has never played more than 52 games in a year. Are either of these guys going to be the big hoss to which the Hawks will hitch their wagon in the stretch?

The outlook: Chicago has the look of a team that is perhaps a year away, although a lot of folks said that about the Caps last year, too. We – being peerless in prognostications – had the Caps making the playoffs last year. We expect the Hawks to do the same this year. In a league where young guys make marks earlier in their careers than years past, the Hawks have several very good ones.

8. Edmonton

The good: This is another club that has a good young group of players – Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Tom Gilbert…all 25 or younger. Adding an Erik Cole will provide some grit and goal scoring, as well. The Oilers look to have a pretty good mix of youth and veterans (especially on defense) that will allow them to avoid the ups and downs of a more heavily youth-weighted lineup.

The bad: The Oilers had three goaltenders on their opening night roster – Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, Dwayne Roloson, and Mathieu Garon. That suggests to us that the Oilers just aren’t sure what direction to go in. When the dust settles, it looks like Garon will be the number one, but it might be a shaky perch on which to sit. Garon hasn’t had a bad career to date, statistics-wise, but looking at the three of them, it’s hard to see where the Oilers will have many games stolen by their goaltending. On a young team, that could be a problem.

The outlook: Edmonton has built a team that could challenge in the lower half of the playoff draw this year, so long as the young guys keep improving. There should be some constants – Shawn Horcoff getting 20 goals or so (he’s averaged that in the last three seasons), Dustin Penner providing some toughness and offensive pop (he’s averaged 26 goals the last two years), Steve Staios providing some solid play on the blue line. Edmonton might really be that team that is a year away, primarily because of its goaltending, but we think they’ll make it this year.

9. Colorado

The good: Last year was the first time since 2001-2002 that Joe Sakic did not average at least a point a game, and it took missing 38 games with a hernia to do it. Sakic is back, and so too might be the point a game production. Paul Stastny has averaged a point a game over his first two years. Marek Svatos rebounded from a 17-goal drop in production last year to post 26 goals.

The bad: The Avalanche, despite being a playoff club last year, was very streaky in the second half. From February 12th through the end of the year (26 games), the Avs lost five in a row, won nine of 11, lost four in a row, then closed the year winning five of six. That kind of inconsistency doesn’t often get rewarded. The Avs also will be turning over the reins in goal to Peter Budaj, who had a fine year in 2006-2007 (31-16-6, 2.68, .905), but appeared in 22 fewer games last year, posting roughly similar numbers (2.57, .903). Behind him is Andrew Raycroft, who is on his third team in four years. He hasn’t had a year were he’s saved as many as 90 percent of the shots he faced since his rookie year.

Outlook: There isn’t a lot of room for error. If any of Budaj, Sakic, or Stastny go down, the Avs will be in real trouble. Adding Darcy Tucker isn’t the answer – he’s gone from 61 to 43 to 34 points the last three years. When you score 61 points and play like he does, you’re “gritty.” When you play that was and get 34 points (with the possibility of sinking further), you’re not gritty, you’re “annoying.” As it is, they are probably on the wrong edge of the playoff mix. Any injuries or bad stretches, and they’re sunk.

10. Nashville

The good: The Predators return four of six players from last year that scored 40 or more points. The Predators have assembled a solid back line. Dan Ellis had a very good year last year in taking over as the number one goaltender when Chris Mason stumbled. Nashville also had one of the best penalty killing units in the league. The Predators proved to be a resilient bunch amid swirls of conversation about the future of the franchise in Nashville.

The bad: They will miss Alexander Radulov’s scoring. It was not an especially potent power play last year, and it won’t be this year, either. Although Dan Ellis performed well last year, he will now have a brighter light shining on his play, and backing him up will be a rookie, talented though he might be, Pekka Rinne.

Outlook: The Predators won’t win on style points. They will win with all the horses pulling in the same direction and through hard work. The problem is that they are a less gifted team than last year’s,and last year’s did have much in the way of top-end skill. They’ll struggle in a division that has teams with superior skill, such as Detroit and Chicago.

11. Vancouver

The good: It all starts with Roberto Luongo, who must feel as if he wronged the hockey gods in a past life to perpetually play behind teams that struggle offensively. But he can steal more than a few games by himself – he’ll have to. After that, the offense boils down to the Sedins, Daniel and Henrik, and not much else, unless Pavol Demitra can rebound from a 15-39-54 effort last year in Minnesota. The Canucks will be in most games on the strength of Luongo and a hard-nosed blue line with Mattias Ohlund, Shane O’Brien, and Willie Mitchell.

The bad: 23rd in scoring last year, 18th on the power play, 25th when trailing first. Vancouver was a poor offensive team, and Demitra isn’t likely to be nearly enough to turn that around.

Outlook: This is a club that wilted in the stretch last year, losing seven of their last eight to finish three points out of the playoffs. Luongo played in all seven, going 1-6-0, 4.02, .864, and getting pulled three times. At some point, such overwhelming reliance on the goaltender out of a lack of reliable or consistent offense takes its toll. And that will be why the Canucks will be out of the money again.

12. Phoenix

The good: The Coyotes probably overachieved last year, even though they finished 12th in the West, and they bring back most of the core of that effort. Shane Doan had perhaps his best year last season, but he gets help this time around in the form of Olli Jokinen. Jokinen should take some pressure off of Kyle Turris in his rookie year in the middle.

The bad: The Coyotes are going to have a hard time getting any offense on the wings after Doan. Radim Vrbata, who was second on the team in scoring last year skating on the right side, is now in Tampa. Peter Mueller performed well in his rookie campaign, but after that, the Coyotes didn’t have a winger with 30 points last year.

The Outlook: This is a very young team, with six roster players who are 21 or younger among the skaters. They are especially young up front with only Doan and Steven Reinprecht older than 30. There will be growing pains. When all is said and done, overachieving last year should not be confused with “good.” There is a promising young nucleus here, but they are some time away from being competitive. Ilya Bryzgalov, who performed well (and often spectacularly) last year, will have to do at least as well for the Coyotes to challenge.

13. Columbus

The good: The Blue Jackets have some capable players in Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius, R.J. Umberger, and Mike Commodore. And they have some promising youngsters in Drerick Brassard and Jakub Voracek. Like Phoenix, though, the youth needs time to deveop a game. On the back line, Rostislav Klesla would probably be a much better anchor if he hadn’t lost large chunks of two seasons to injuries. But he’s only 26. Fedor Tyutin comes over from the Rangers, and he’s only 25.

Bad: Columbus has a culture of losing. Last year was the best in franchise history, but they still finished under .500 with 80 points. It will be an offense-challenged team. How much? Columbus had 34 wins last year – 11 of them came via shutout. It isn’t immediately clear that they will be more potent this year. The Blue Jackets will get some veteran support from Mike Peca and Fredrik Modin, but both are players whose best production appears to be behind them.

Outlook: If Leclaire has the same level of production he had last year, the Blue Jackets will still probably finish with around 80 points. It would be a lot to expect nine shutouts this year, even if head coach Ken Hitchcock stresses defense-defense-defense. There isn’t enough offense among the veterans, and the youngsters are too young yet.

14. St.Louis

The good: Not a lot. Paul Kariya and Keith Tkachuk could provide some offense, but they are 34 (in a few days) and 36, respectively. Brad Boyes had a coming out party of sorts last year with 43 goals. The Blues have some competent defensemen, but the loss of Erik Johnson to a knee injury just about killed whatever thin chance they had to compete this year.

The bad: Last year, the Blues were a bottom third team in goals scored, goals against, and power play (dead last). But at least they could kill power plays (seventh in the league). Well, with Johnson out for the year, can they make it four for four in the bottom five?

Outlook: This is a team that will compete for the top overall pick in next June’s draft. It would seem that they’ll be looking to shop any veteran over 30 come the trading deadline. This will not be a pleasant year for coach Andy Murray.

15. Los Angeles

The good: Anze Kopitar and…well, Anze Kopitar. OK, Alexander Frolov and Dustin Bown will contribute some, but not nearly enough to make the Kings respectable. Patrick O’Sullivan has a world of talent, but he ended a holdout only four days before opening night. The one thing the Kings can’t afford is a slow start by any of their skill players.

The bad: The Kings employed four goaltenders last year, none of whom could reasonably be confused with being a bona fide number one NHL goaltender. Erik Ersberg was the best of the lot, but in only the second most appearances, to Jason LaBarbera. For the moment, LaBarbera looks like the number one. That should not be comforting to Kings’ fans.

Outlook: This will be the worst defensive team in the West, perhaps the worst in the league. A penalty killing unit that was dead last in 2007-2008 doesn’t figure to be better this year. The Kings have some kids in the pipeline, especially on defense (Thomas Hickey, Drew Doughty, Colton Teubert), but with the exception of Doughty, who was on the opening night roster, they are perhaps years away.

The most satisfying part of the cover

This is the cover of the most recent version of The Hockey News. It proclaims the Washington Capitals as the NHL's most exciting team. And you know what?...That picture and that caption -- "The Most Exciting Team in the NHL" -- isn't even what brought a smile to your intrepid prognosticator's face. Nope, the most satisfying part of the cover for us was up there on the top left...

YOU STINK! -- The Smelly Contenders for Tavares * Hedman

...and knowing that the Caps are far from being among them.

What do we know?

It is tempting to think (and more than a few folks seem to have succumbed to the temptation) that after an ugly effort last Friday against the Thrashers, that the RMS Capitals has righted itself and is steaming majestically onward to glory come the spring.

Oh...really?

It's three games in. After three games last year, the Caps were 3-0 with seven goals scored and two (two!) allowed. And...

Viktor Kozlov had two goals...he finished with 14 in his last 79 games...he has none right now and is injured.

Mike Green had not registered a goal on four shots in the three games...he'd have 18 goals over his last 79 games...he is now 3-2-5 on 16 shots through three games this time around.

John Erskine was 1-1-2 and registered a +1 in each of the three games...he'd score one more goal and go +6 over his last 48 games...he's 0-0-0, even in two games.

Alexander Semin had only played in one game, notching an assist...he's 3-3-6 through three games this time around.

Alex Ovechkin had only one goal...he had 64 in his last 79 games...he has two at the moment, and being tied for 17th with the likes of Devin Setoguchi, Wade Redden, and Roman Hamrlik probably has a portion of Red Nation in a panic.

Boyd Gordon wasn't on the ice for any goals against in his three games...he got on the ice for the first time this past Monday, despite being by appearances completely healthy.

Jose Theodore was in Colorado and hadn't played a game yet.

Some might look at this and think, "gee, Peerless, the numbers look sort of better this time around." We're not a sap for three game increments. We see it more as, "things change," and what might look good on Saturday and Monday this week might look a lot different on a Saturday and a Monday in March.

There isn't anything to be learned...yet...from three games.

We don't know anything about anything.

"Everything Happened So Suddenly"

As noted in Beyond the Blueshirts, that is how Jaromir Jagr described the tragic events that unfolded on Monday that ended in the death of 19-year old Rangers' prospect and Avongard Omsk right wing Alexei Cherepanov.

There will be the usual calls for an investigation into such an untimely and unforeseen occurrence. There will be the usual bureaucratic language and behavior that attaches to these kinds of things, and whether any sense will be made of it, whether any improvements that can prevent its reoccurrence, whether anyone will be held accountable for this young man's death is fodder for another day.

Today, a young man who should be skating on a road trip with his teammates isn't. That a young player few fans in North America have seen play, and fewer know, should inspire expressions of sorrow and loss these past two days teaches two things -- hockey binds us, and life is short.

Rest in peace, Alexei.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Canucks 1

Dom'-i-nate: v. tr.

1. To control, govern, or rule by superior authority or power
2. To exert a supreme, guiding influence on or over
3. To enjoy a commanding, controlling position in
4. To allow one even strength shot on goal in each of the first two periods to the Vancouver Canucks

OK, we made that fourth one up, but you get the idea. The Capitals treated their fans to a franchise record-setting night that was not of the offensive variety in a 5-1 win over the heretofore undefeated (whaddya mean it’s only two games?) Vancouver Canucks. Ten official shots on goal represent the fewest ever allowed by a Caps team (they twice allowed as few as 11, in both instances against the Florida Panthers).

Almost as amazing, the Caps registered five goals on a night when the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Viktor Kozlov didn’t have a point. Kozlov was injured in the second period and did not return for the last 28:39 of the game.

Sergei Fedorov lined up on the blue line for this one, and even though the puck seemed to be misbehaving on his stick early – four giveaways – he gave (as one would expect…he’s done this before) a good account of himself, earning the second star for a one assist, four shot, plus-three effort.

Alexander Semin had one of his best all-around games for the Caps…two goals, six shots, four takeaways, one hit, and he was strong on the puck, standing up to some abuse the Canucks tried to inflict upon him.

Tomas Fleischmann continued a string of solid efforts with an assist, a plus-1, and a good effort on the forecheck (he was credited with no takeaways, but we think that is in error).

Milan Jurcina registered his highest shot total since February 6, 2007 (his third game with the Caps after arriving in trade from Boston, when he had five). The post-game radio report noted that Sergei Fedorov was encouraging Jurcina to shoot more, and it paid off with a goal.

Bruce Boudreau thinks the official scorer missed a few shots on goal for the Canucks. Well, The Peerless thinks the official scorer missed a ton of blocked shots for the Caps. Few (obviously) made their way through to Brent Johnson, who played in place of Jose Theodore.

Brooks Laich…one assist, plus-2, two SOG, one hit, two takeaways, a blocked shot, four out of five on draws. That’s called “sampling the scoresheet buffet.”

And what was that Donald Brashear no look through-the-legs back pass from behind the Canuck goal, right onto the tape of a Cap speeding to the net? If that had converted, the place would have gone nuts.

Remember when Michael Nylander was signed as a free agent, folks said he could help the Caps with their abysmal shootout conversion rate? Well, folks saw why on the penalty shot he converted when he deked Roberto Luongo to the ice and tucked the puck behind him.

Oh, and if you’re wondering about why Nylander replaced Alexander Semin for the penalty shot (after a lengthy review), it’s right there in Rule 53.6…”When any member of the defending team, including the Coach or any non-playing person, throws or shoots any part of a stick or any other object or piece of equipment at the puck or puck carrier in his defending zone, preventing a reasonable shot or pass, the Referee shall allow the play to be completed and if a goal is not scored, a penalty shot shall be awarded to the non-offending team. This shot shall be taken by the player designated by the Referee as the player fouled.”

Neither Sedin had a shot on goal, although Henrik had an assist on the Vancouver goal scored by Alexander Edler.

Alexander Semin is 3-3-6, +3 after three games…Mike Green is 3-2-5, +3…Alex Ovechkin is 2-0-2, +2. The Young Guns are firing pretty well (although it would be nice to get Backstrom going).

This is the kind of night a team with lofty aspirations has to have to make sure their aspirations can be met down the road. Other guys contributed, and even though the OBK line was shutout, they contributed in other ways – Ovechkin had five hits (several of the thunderous variety) and Backstom had a pair of takeaways, looking a lot less lost than he did in his first two games. Through three games, 17 different players have points (only Shoane Morrisonn and John Erskine have yet to register a point).

It was the right start for a week in which a number of demons are on the schedule. The Caps have dispatched Roberto Luongo, who had won ten consecutive decisions against the Caps. Next up, Pittsburgh. Then, Brodeur and the Devils.

Busy week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Canucks, October 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And we're live here at Peerless Central on this Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. of A., where we celebrate that man who didn't really "discover" America as much as he had a better literary agent. Tonight, the Caps host the Vancouver Canucks. It's been awhile since the Caps have defeated the Canucks in Washington. It's been since November 22, 2000, in fact (a 3-2 win in overtime). It is so long ago...

There was no Lu-on-go in Vancouver. He was enduring the first year of his incarceration in Florida with the Panthers, sentenced to toil in front of a team that can't score...sort of like now.

The Canucks of that vintage had, as their second leading scorer...Andrew Cassels, who would go on to glory with Washington in his memorable year of 2005-2006 (31 games, 4-8-12, -3).

Todd Bertuzzi hadn't yet scored 30 goals for the Canucks (and hadn't yet jumped anyone on the ice yet, either).

Donald Brashear was on that team. So was Jarkko Ruutu...and Matt Cooke. We're betting they fought over rolls of tape on that team.

The Sedins were rookies.

It's been a while.

As for these Canucks, we'll borrow (steal, Peerless...it's called "steal") a page from the pop-up videos and bring you some things to know about the visitors...

History repeats itself. Even Halley's Comet stops by every 76 years. And so it will be tonight, as the Men in Red defeat the visitors from the far northwest.

Caps 3 - Canucks 2

Gimme gimme gimme...

It’s early in the year, not much has transpired, schedule-wise, so we were clicking through the clubs to see what they’re doing in terms of promotions to see what caught our eye…

Anaheim…only four “promotional nights?” Shirt, hat, magnet schedule, team photo. Ducks…starts with a “D,” and that’s what they get for imagination.

Carolina…flags on opening night, a magnet schedule, and bobbleheads (Eric Staal, Tim Gleason, Justin Williams, and Cam Ward). Carolina…starts with “C.” They get the gentleman’s grade for lack of imagination but volume of bobbleheads.

Chicago…team calendar, magnetic schedule, “welcome back Pat Foley” pin (Foley was the Hawks play-by-play guy who was not picked up when his contract was to be renewed after the 2005-2006 season), Patrick Kane figurine, replica banners, Blackhawks hat, Steve Larmer collector’s pin, Patrick Sharp Bobblehead, reusable tote bag, MPH Line collector’s pin, St. patrick’s Day green hat, Patrick Kane bobblehead, Glenn Hall memento. The Hawks get an “A” for embracing their heritage.

Columbus…the Blue Jackets are big on food. They have ten “all you can eat” package evenings and five dollar hot dog nights. As far as chotchkies, the Jackets have a John H. MConnell commemorative hat (McConnell was majority owner who passed away last April), magnet schedule, Rick Nash t-shirt, 2009 calendar, white-out t-shirt giveaway, and a team poster. The Blue Jackets get a "B" for giving fans a break on food and for some variety on the giveaways.

Edmonton…The Oilers will have a “Caps for Cancer Night” – pink and blue caps signed by an Oiler for a $20 contribution to fight cancer. They’re also having a “Shirts of Our Backs” Night…in December. And, it’s the ladies. The Edmonton Oilers Community Foundation and Edmonton Oilers Ladies will be conducting a raffle, winners getting a signed Oiler jersey. What, you were expecting…get your mind outta the gutter. A St. Patrick’s Day Puck Surprise has the ladies sponsoring a sale of autographed pucks for a $20 donation for selected charities. The Oilers get a “B” for their community support efforts.

Los Angeles…The Kings are giving away a calendar, something called “Enforcer Series Poster #1 presented by Waste Management,” an alternate jersey mini-banner, string backpack, Zamboni piggy bank, Anze Kopitar play puck series, “Enforcer Series #2,” Dustin Brown player puck series, a hat, school binder (in February?...isn’t that a “back to school” thing?), Alexander Frolov player puck series, lunch box, and the third “Enforcer Series” poster. The Kings get a “B” for variety.

Montreal…The Habs have a magnetic calendar and a car flag. They do have a series of “centennial jersey” nights, which aren’t technically giveaways, but which should be interesting, since they will feature players wearing vintage Canadiens sweaters. But, this being the centennial of the club, they could have done more in this area…”D.”

Nashville…magnetic schedule. They do have a lot of theme nights, though…college night, hockey fights cancer night, fellowship night, scout night, sci-fi night, golf night, jailhouse rock night, NASCAR night (go figure), YMCA night, Nashvill Zoo night, hot dog night. And the Predators have set aside a section for their “drives”…school supply drive, food drive (two), toy drive (two), Salvation Army, new and gently used sports equipment, books, and diapers/baby supplies. For the paucity of giveaways, but trying to get by on a “no-cost” strategy for themes, the Predators get a “C.”

New Jersey…magnetic schedule, team calendar, youth poster, hockey puck ski cap, baseball cap, youth jersey. A “B” for variety and going “old school” with some traditional giveaways.

Ottawa…a red metallic pom-pom and “cool Sens luggage tag” on opening night. That’s it for the giveaways, but the Senators do have “sport chek kids games” (50% off tickets for kids) and vouchers for food at McDonalds. Still…looks like a “C” effort.

Philadelphia…the giveaways on their promotional schedule – three of them – are marked with an asterisk, but they don’t indicate what the giveaway is (maybe they don’t want to telegraph to fans anything they could throw), but they do have a “dollar dog night.” We’re trying to figure out the “Go Green Night” on October 22nd. Maybe they celebrate St. Patrick’s Day according to a different calendar. “D” for the Flyers. Oh, heck…give ‘em an “F,” it’s Philly.

Phoenix…Olli Jokinen bobblehead, short-sleeved t-shirt, winter gloves (in Arizona?), fleece blanket (in Arizona??), “build a bear,” and a Coyotes hat. They had three nights on which they gave away magnetic schedules – all preseason games (incentive to attend, I guess). They make a point to say that “season ticket holders are guaranteed all promotional giveaway items.” Well, hey…sign me up. “C”

Pittsburgh…schedule mouse pad (in Pittsburgh, they think that’s a condo for rodents), team calendar, “vintage shirt” (we’re thinking that means, “unwashed”), baseball cap, Pennsylvania Lottery scratch off coupons (only in PA), gym bag, vintage pennant, and a Penguin Lil’ Webkinz. Another “C”

St. Louis…team calendar, magnet schedule, “glow rally towel,” Blues coffee mug, team poster. We’re betting the March 15th game will be popular….”FREE FOOD GAME” (in caps on the Blues promotions page). Not a large offering, the food thing gets them a “C”

Tampa Bay…magnetic schedule (they have two nights for this), Marty St. Louis mini-bobblehead (life size), Mike Smith mini-bobblehead, Vinnie Lecavalier t-shirt, Chris Gratton mini-bobblehead, Steven Stamkos mini-bobblehead, pennant, Ryan Malone mini-bobblehead, Marty St. Louis t-shirt, Evgeny Artyukhin mini-bobblehead, Gary Roberts t-shirt, Barry Melrose mini-bobblehead (mullet accessories sold separately?), green Lightning hat, Vinnie Lecavalier mini-bobblehead. The Lightning do the “stuff” thing very well. They get an “A”

Vancouver…the Canucks appear to shun giveaways in favor of contests…a “pick ‘n’ win” contest where you win tickets based on predictions, a “VIP chalk talk contest” where the winner gets a copy of the game plan from the coach (we’ll try to score and at the same time try to keep the other guys from scoring) before watching the game in a suite, and a “lucky traveler” contest that offers game tickets an trips (not to hockey games, apparently). Sorry, we want freebees…”D”

Washington…replica division championship banner, magnetic schedule, Bruce Boudreau bobblehead, Alex Ovechkin with trophies bobblehead, Mike Gartner commemorative giveaway, calculator, lunch box for the kiddies, autographed player photo (again, for the kids), and a beach towel. Interesting touch on the Ovechkin bobblehead, and fans might need a calculator to tote up Ovechkin’s goals. We’ll give ‘em a “B”

We just hope that beach towel on Fan Appreciation Day isn’t for crying into.

edit: After we posted this, we came across this one, courtesy of James Mirtle.

2008-2009 Eastern Conference Prognostications

We’re a bit tardy with this, but we are in the bidness of prognosticating, so here is the East…


1. Montreal

The good: Power play (tops in the league last year) and balance (seven players with 50+ points last year, six of whom return, and four players with at least five game-winning goals, all of whom return).

The bad: Carey Price won his last seven regular season decisions last year, then went 5-6 in the playoffs, was sat down in favor of Jaroslav Halak before returning to lose the clinching game in the second round to Philadelphia. Price might be the gold standard for goaltenders in the NHL someday, but he’s having to contend right now with being the unquestioned number one in the biggest fishbowl in the league.

Outlook: Price will need some time to grow into his role, but he’ll do that. As for the rest of the team, Montreal returns a formidable power play. One might wonder if Alex Kovalev can, at age 35, duplicate his point-plus-per game output of last year (84 points in 82 games). Robert Lang might take some of the scoring load off Kovalev’s shoulders, but he is the consolation prize in the Mats Sundin sweepstakes. Still, Montreal is the most complete team in the East.

2. Pittsburgh

The good: Strength down the middle with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jordan Staal (if he doesn’t play on the wing), goaltending, a year’s worth of experience for the youngsters.

The bad: Injuries already taking a toll on the blue line, comparatively weak wingers, the potential for the Stanley Cup loser swoon.

Outlook: Much is made of the Penguins losing Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney for extended periods. While both are somewhat underrated in the defensive end of the ice, neither is the most important ingredient there. And, since the power play essentially runs through the Crosby/Malkin axis, the Penguins should be able to tweak their power play to accommodate the loss. However, the Penguins cannot any repeats of “high ankle sprain syndrome.” If Marc-Andre Fleury goes down, this becomes an iffy playoff team. What might scare Eastern conference opponents is the “anything you can do, I can do better” exchange between Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin won the Calder three years ago; Crosby won the Hart, Ross, and Pearson two years ago; Ovechkin won those three and the Richard last year. It’s Crosby’s “turn.”

3. Washington

The good: The Caps’ history had been one of earnest defense and lunch pail forwards who checked teams all over the ice. Well, not this team. The Caps could have three point-per-game players (Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom – all of whom are under 25) and half a dozen players with more than 50 points.

The bad: Uncertainty in goal. Jose Theodore won the Vezina and Hart Trophies in 2002, but has been very inconsistent since. He has to achieve a higher level of consistency for the still-young Caps to make the playoffs and go deep. And, that youth is still an issue, especially on the blue line, where four of the six roster defensemen are 25 or younger.

Outlook: The Caps are, in general, a lot like last year’s team, and not because they return virtually everyone (the notable exception being the rental goalie, Cristobal Huet). Last year, we noted that the Caps would be much better late than they would be early, and this was true (much of it owing to the installation of Bruce Boudreau to unleash the fury of the Caps’ precocious offensive talent). They will be, once more, better late than early, a product of their still-developing youth core. And, they get Chris Clark and Michael Nylander back from injury, which, compared to the team that finished the season, is like getting two free agents of importance.

4. New Jersey

The good: It all still starts with Martin Brodeur, who while he gave some indications late last year (a five-game losing streak in late March) that 75-plus game, 4,000-plus minute seasons are not wise at this stage of his career, is still the gold standard for performance and consistency. New Jersey won 46 games last year with a goal differential of 0.07 goals/game. Brodeur knows how to play on thin margins of a lead. That won’t change.

The bad: They will still have to find scoring from somewhere. John Madden – a checking center – was fourth on the club in scoring last year. Brian Rolston – returning to the Devils this year – had 30-plus goals in each of his three seasons in Minnesota. He’ll need to contribute something close to that this year, or the Devils might find themselves on the short side of that thin margin.

Outlook: It’s already something of a war of attrition in the Atlantic – Philadelphia is seeing its blue line decimated, Pittsburgh has lost Gonchar and Whitney, there are questions about Henrik Lundqvist’s knees in New York. The Devils could win this division merely by staying healthy and holding on when (if?) the others get healthy. Nevertheless, their defensive orientation will keep them in just about every game they play. There shouldn’t be much in terms of long losing streaks…unless, perhaps, Brodeur is inching over that 75-games played pace again.

5. Philadelphia

The good: Despite the signing of Daniel Briere in free agency last year, the Flyers became Mike Richards’ team. He is one of the most complete players in the league, who more than doubled his point output last year from the 2006-2007 season. Add to that the likes of Jeff Carter, Scott Hartnell, Joffrey Lupul, and Scottie Upshall – all of whom are 26 or younger, and it is a formidable and young group of forwards that should improve.

The bad: Defense – three defensemen (Derian Hatcher, Ryan Parent, and Randy Jones) are all injured. Steve Eminger, who couldn’t get into a Caps game without a ticket last year, might be a top-four defenseman on this club for the foreseeable future. And, there is the matter of backup goaltender Antero Niittymaki, who had hip surgery in September.

Outlook: The Flyers do get Simon Gagne back, and his contribution will be important to the Flyers, especially early as they try to weather the storm of injuries on the blue line. Martin Biron took a big leap forward as a number one goaltender last year, and he is going to have to play at a similarly high level for the Flyers to keep within reach early in the Atlantic.

6. Buffalo

The good: The Miller Watch is over. Gone is the speculation of his returning to Michigan to play for the Red Wings, his having signed a five-year, $31.5 million contract. The removal of that distraction should be enough to enable Miller to avoid the ever so slight slip in production he had last year over his 2006-2007 season. And speaking of focus, a year removed from a big new contract might allow Thomas Vanek to rebound from a year that saw his production drop by seven goals, 20 points, and -52 (no, that’s not a misprint) from the previous season).

The bad: One of the hallmarks of recent Sabre teams that were successful was their balance. Two years ago, they had eight players with at least 50 points and defenseman Brian Campbell with 48. Last year – with Daniel Briere, Chris Drury gone, and Brian Campbell shipped to San Jose at the trading deadline, the Sabres had only three players with 50-plus points. The Sabres, despite Vanek’s high-end contract, don’t really have any high-end offensive talent -- Vanek has to show he wasn’t a one-year wonder, and Maxim Afinogenov has to show that last year’s 28 points in 56 games was an aberration. Derek Roy and Jason Pominville both had 80 or more points, and could be those high-end talents. But the Sabres seem a bit thin after that.

Outlook: The Sabres are a good, not great team with a very good coach leading them in Lindy Ruff. That, by itself, should be sufficient to get a top-eight spot. But there isn’t an indication that the Sabres have enough opportunity for improvement from their current roster to make a bigger leap. They are not the team they were two years ago, although they will be better than last year.

7. Carolina

The good: Carolina lost Rod Brind’Amour and Matt Cullen for 23 games apiece, and Ray Whitney for another 16 games, and still came within an eyelash of winning the Southeast. Those are three solid pros who can only make the Hurricanes stronger this year, provided they are healthy. They added some punch on the blue line in Joni Pitkanen and some grit up front in Dan LaCouture. Carolina is a team of pros who might not have much in the way of long winning streaks (one five game winning streak last year), but neither will they have long losing streaks (one four-game streak last year).

The bad: Health. Justin Williams is already on the shelf for 4-6 months with a torn Achilles tendon, this on top of missing 45 games last year to a torn ACL and a back injury. Brind’Amour had knee surgery in September, but was available to start the season. In goal, Cam Ward is not a “bad” goaltender, but he has not quite lived up to the Conn Smythe level of performance he had in the playoffs three years ago. If the Hurricanes are to make the post-season, his level of play has to come up a notch.

Outlook: Carolina is a team that is likely to spend the whole season in the weeds, lurking around that eighth spot in the conference. An injury here, a slump there, and they fall below the line. If they suffer no other key injuries, if Eric Staal is truly a point-a-game player, if Brind’Amour – something of a fitness freak of nature – returns to his career form, this is a playoff team. Ultimately, though, it might come down to a guy like Sergei Samsonov, who gave no indication in Edmonton, Montreal, or Chicago that he could reclaim the production level he had in his early years in Boston, but who had 14 goals in 38 games for the Hurricanes. If that wasn’t a fluke, the Hurricanes make the playoffs. But if it was…

8. Ottawa Senators

The good: They have the best first line in the NHL. Since the lockout, Dany Heatley (47-50-97, +31), Daniel Alfredsson (37-56-93, +29), and Jason Spezza (29-61-90), have had average annual production unmatched across the top forward line. In Mike Fisher and Chris Neil, they have the grit that Senator teams of the early part of the decade seemed to lack, and provide adequate production as well. They added a little more sandpaper with professional annoyance, Jarkko Ruutu, who will no doubt leave in his wake a number of towns crying foul at his style of play.

The bad: The Senators are a team without a clear bona fide number one goaltender. Martin Gerber has one 30-plus win season to his credit in five years in the NHL. Alex Auld, ditto, in three full seasons. In Auld’s case, he has only one season playing more than half his team’s games (60 appearances in Vancouver in 2005-2006). Is either the guy to shoulder the load for the Senators?

Outlook: Ottawa had a disappointing year last season, going 27-28-8 in their last 63 games and a sweep out of the first round of the playoffs (by Pittsburgh) after a 16-3-0 start. One would think that this is an experienced enough team with enough professional pride to make amends for that kind of a finish. They will be able to score, and they have a decent blue line group. But the iffy nature of their goaltending will have them hovering around that eighth spot all year.

9. New York Rangers

The good: Addition by subtraction. For all his talent, Jaromir Jagr held the NHL franchise of soap opera diva episodes. There was too much attention paid to him by the media, and perhaps the club itself, to the detriment of what is ultimately a team exercise. Scott Gomez and Chris Drury – both of whom have Stanley Cup rings – can assume the leadership roles on the ice, and coach Tom Renney doesn’t have to worry about what will offend or otherwise set off his moody star.

The bad: We’re not sold on the off season acquisitions – Wade Redden, Nikolai Zherdev, Markus Naslund. It smacks too much of the indiscriminant buying up of assets earlier in the decade. And, there is the matter of Henrik Lundqvist. There were reports of knee problems in the summer, and while he might be fine for the moment, that’s a warning sign. Steve Valiquette, who did get 13 games of work last year, performing very well in his role, will have to assume at least that level of work this year. And, this is a club that performed rather poorly in the absence of uber-pest Sean Avery last year. It is not a tougher team this time around.

Outlook: This is a club that, with a more settled group last year, finished only five points to the good in the playoff race. They had an odd finish in that nine of their last 16 games went to extra time (they were 4-5 in those games). If those five extra time losses were lost in regulation, the Rangers would not have made the playoffs. That was how tight the East was last year and how tight it is likely to be once more. We just don’t see this team, as it is constructed, being better than last year’s.

10. Boston

The Good: Boston was better than the sum of its parts last year. They made the playoffs having been outscored by ten goals over the course of the season. Peter Chiarelli and Claude Julien did a fine job. Much of that team returns, and the Bruins regain the services of Patrice Bergeron, who played in only ten games last year due to a concussion. Zdeno Chara will be a Norris contender once more.

The Bad: Playing better than the sum of your parts can work for awhile, but it is tough to maintain that level of effort with a collection of talent such as Boston has. It is a group that doesn’t have a lot in the way of high-end talent, and the Bruins will struggle to score. They had only one player last year with more than 35 assists (by way of comparison, the Caps had four, and Michael Nylander might have been a fifth had his season not been cut short).

Outlook: The Bruins probably overachieved last year. This year’s club will, just as it did last year, depend a lot on goaltender Tim Thomas. Thomas was superb down the stretch, going 5-2-2 in his last nine games, 1.87, .933. It’s likely he’ll have to be just as good, if not better, given the Bruins’ talent mix and the fact that the backup – Manny Fernandez – is coming back from missing vitually the entire 2007-2008 season. The Bruins will battle, but they just don’t have the horses.

11. Florida

The good: The defense and goaltending should be very good, better, in fact, than an also-ran might be expected to have. Jay Bouwmeester will anchor the blue line for 60 games or so (we’ll get to that). The Bryans – Allen and McCabe – will provide some solid play there, too. Tomas Vokoun, who struggled at times over the first two thirds of the season, finished strong and still managed to post the second best save percentage of his career.

The bad: It’s hard to avoid hearing that clock ticking – the one counting down the days until Bouwmeester is traded, and that could hang over the Panthers all year. Plus, one has to wonder where they will get their scoring from. The Panthers have one returning 50-plus point producer (Nathan Horton). You’re thinking Richard Zednik’s return will matter?...he’s never had a 50-plus point season. Cory Stillman isn’t going to fill the void left by the departure of Olli Jokinen.

Outlook: Florida will be a team that will be difficult to beat, given the talent on their defense and their goaltending (Craig Anderson allowed more than three goals only twice in 17 appearances as Vokoun’s backup). But this team might not score more than three goals twice in 17 games. After Nathan Horton, who will now be asked to be the go-to guy on this team, the attack is thin. Florida might hang around longer than one would expect, given that they play in the comparatively weak Southeast, but they won’t be there at the end.

12. Tampa Bay

The Good: They will have firepower in Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and rookie Steven Stamkos (although later, rather than sooner, in his case).

The Bad: Welcome to the NHL fine forward farewell tour. Mark Recchi (40), Gary Roberts (42), Chris Gratton (33), Jeff Halpern (32, and who won’t be available until December as he rehabs his knee), Vaclav Prospal (33). In an NHL that has become a young man’s game after the lockout, Tampa Bay looks to have gone the route of the NFL’s Washington Redskins of a few years ago…gathering up an all star team…from half a dozen years ago (and this isn't an all star team). Tampa Bay tried to shore up the defensive side of the ledger late in the game, but Andrej Meszaros and Matthew Carle don’t seem likely to be the answers. This looks more like a fantasy team than a real life hockey team.

Outlook: Jamie Heward might be a 20-minute-a-night defenseman on this club. When he averaged almost 22 minutes for the Caps in 2005-2006, the Caps were a 70-point team. That’s not a knock on Heward as much as it is what Tampa Bay has built around him. Maybe ownership will learn (like many before them) that sports franchises aren’t “some assembly required” kits, but it won’t be this year.

13. Atlanta

The Good: It would be tempting to say, “Ilya Kovalchuk,” and shut up. That wouldn’t be entirely true, though. The defense – with Ron Hainsey, Tobias Enstrom, Garnet Exelby, and Mathieu Schneider mentoring Zach Bogosian – won’t be that bad. Kari Lehtonen, if he stays upright, can be a very good goalie.

The bad: Outside of Kovalchuk, who scores for the Thrashers? Although new coach John Anderson will feature an aggressive style, this is a team that will have difficulty scoring more nights than not.

Outlook: Some nights, this will look like a very good team, usually when Kovalchuk is having one of his explosive efforts. But there won't be enough of them. The Thrashers are just too thin on the top two lines in scoring talent to take advantage of their coach's philosophy on a consistent basis.

14. Toronto

The good: Vesa Toskala is a competent goalie. Curtis Joseph – at this point in his career – could be an adequate backup. After that…this team is a mess. Is Nik Antropov anything better than a 25-30-55 player? Probably not. Can Jason Blake rebound from the effects of illness and a 25-goal drop-off that he had last year? Probably not. Is Alexander Steen ready to make the next big leap forward? Probably not, not on this team. Will Jamal Mayers improve on the -19, -22, -19, and -19 he’s posted the last four years? Probably not.

The bad: Look at the team picture.

Outlook: This will be one long year of imagining John Tavares in a Maple Leaf uniform. But, true to the Leafs recent history, they’ll finish just out of the money for that pick, unless the right ping-pong ball comes up.

15. NY Islanders

The good: The June 2009 draft. No, seriously…Kyle Okposo will grow into a very good player. Ditto for Josh Bailey. Through pain is strength obtained. Rick DiPietro can still steal a game here and there.

The bad: Everything else. They were last in scoring last year, 23rd in goals allowed, 29th on the power play, 19th in penalty killing. It hardly figures that the Islanders will improve, even adding Doug Weight and Mark Streit. And as for DiPietro, he is apparently still having some lingering issues with his surgically-repaired knee. Jon Sim is back, so maybe there are four wins against Washington in there somewhere.

Outlook: The Islanders and Toronto look to be having their own pennant race of sorts – that being to get the top overall pick in next June’s draft. The Islanders look to have the inside track on this owing to Toronto’s penchant for fading late…in this case winning more often come March. Scott Gordon has his work cut out for him behind the Islanders’ bench.

OK...you're curious

If you didn't catch the opening of the Flyers' game last night, the only hockey mom with Secret Service protection dropped the ceremonial puck...

DC!...Are you ready to ROCK?!

Tarik El-Bashir beat us to it in this morning's Washington Post, but if you've stopped by, here is the Caps' 2008-2008 opening video...



...and the intro to the banner-raising...

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Blackhawks 2

OK…that’s more like it. Sure, 26 seconds in, it was looking like a rerun of last night, when Jose Theodore did his impression of croquet wickets on a rather pedestrian shot from the right wing circle by Kris Versteeg. But Theodore righted his ship – he even made a few top-notch saves (although his communication with his defense still has moving the puck being a continuing adventure). And Brooks Laich, the man Chuck Norris wishes he could be, scored one of the ugliest goals you ever might (or in this case, didn’t) see to get credit for the game-winner in a 4-2 Capitals win in the home opener.

Here is what we saw…

Let’s get this out of the way up front…the Caps need to play with a little – ok, a lot more urgency, especially in their own end. In the first period, it seemed from our perch that the Blackhawks pretty much had free openings to enter the offensive zone down the wings. The Caps were backing in a little too hard, and it force Theodore to make some difficult first saves.

The official three stars of the game were Alex Ovechkin, Brooks Laich, and David Steckel, in that order. Fine…The Peerless’ slice o’ pie goes to Matt Bradley, who was a force on the ice just about every shift. He was like a laser guided cruise missile seeking out the puck carrier and separating him from the biscuit. He converted a nifty cross-ice pass from David Steckel to get the Caps back into the game when the contest looked as if it might get out of hand early.

Someone might stop by Nicklas Backstrom’s locker and let him know…the season’s started. Backstrom looked oddly out of place most of the night, a carryover from last night. He was abused in the faceoff circle (two wins in ten draws). He had the quietest 14:44 imaginable.

We don’t know if it will last for 82 games, but Sergei Fedorov was up and down the ice like a fiend, joing the rush one moment, then hauling a** to backcheck at the other end. And, he won 13 of 17 draws (six-for-six against Patrick Sharp).

For two guys with reputations for not liking to mix things up, Alexander Semin and Tomas Fleischmann were sticking their noses into crowded areas all night. True, they got knocked around some, but they didn’t lack for effort. Fleischmann, especially, had a fine game effort-wise, a much better effort than Friday. Both of these guys are extraordinary at handling the puck in tight spaces.

It was a bad night for “Patricks.” Sharp and Kane were each -3 (so was Brent Sopel…is his middle name “Patrick?”).

No, folks, they were not chanting “Hyoooooooooooooooooo-ay” when Cristobal Huet took the ice for warm-ups.

Chris Clark had only 10:40 in ice time and did not skate in the last 7:34.

Viktor Kozlov had 13:14 in ice time. Only four times in 81 games last year did he have less.

Donald Brashear led the Caps in takeaways (three). That should be “Breaking News” on CNN.

Want to hazard a guess who led all forwards in penalty killing time? The same guy who now has scored a goal in each of his four career home openers (in three of them, he’s notched a pair of goals).

Jose Theodore has as many points as Mike Richards, Thomas Vanek, Rick Nash, and Pavel Datsyuk.

And is it me, in an old fart moment, or shouldn’t the pictures used to introduce players on the big screen have players dressed as…hockey players?

Nikolai Khabibulin is still looking around to figure out where those two pucks went off the stick of Ovechkin.

This was not the sort of game you’d hope to see – or expect to see – in March. But it was the kind of game you might see in October. Even as familiar as these guys are with one another, the Caps still have the look of a ship undertaking sea trials. You can see the skill, and there were guys this close to converting plays tonight, but they are not there yet. They almost let Chicago run away from them early, but Theodore played much better as the game wore on (it would hardly have been possible to do worse than give up a goal on the first shot he faced from near the bottom of the right wing circle). It would be hard to say any Cap played badly, especially in the last two periods. And again, no lead for the opposition seems safe. But two points is two points, and they count for as much now as in April.