A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Lightning 0

Another day, another win.

One might be tempted to take such things for granted for a team on a winning streak, but even though the Caps blanked the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, 3-0, to run their winning streak to six games, such things should never be taken for granted.

And one shouldn’t get too picky about the particulars when you’re winning either, but that’s kinda what we do here, so we will…

The game itself really did break down into three distinct periods – a counterpunching first period, an aggressive second period, and a more disciplined third period than what the Caps showed the last time goalie Semyon Varlamov had an opportunity to pitch a shutout.

“The Big Story,” as it were, will be Alex Ovechkin this morning and his return to the lineup after spending a fun-filled two-game vacation from the rink, courtesy of the fine folks in the NHL front office. This being a game played in south Florida, the phrase that comes to mind thinking of Ovechkin’s return is one applied to a former American presidential candidate – he was “tanned, rested, and ready.”

Was he ever. Ovechkin wins the “Silver Stuckey” for sampling the entire score sheet buffet… seven shots on goal, two goals, a shot blocked, a blocked shot, two misses, two giveaways, a takeaways, five hits, and he won the only faceoff he took. All in a nice and tidy 22 minutes of ice time.

In other words, a pretty average night. But Ovechkin certainly wasn’t the only Cap to sample the goodies in this one…

- Eric Fehr is quietly putting together quite a season. The goal he scored as a product of a display of superior hand-eye coordination, swatting a bouncing puck past Lightning goalie Mike Smith, was his eighth in 20 games. He is on a seven game points streak, and after going scoreless in his first four games has points in 12 of his last 16 and is on an 82-game pace of 41-36-77, plus-51 (that is not a misprint) in those last 16 games.

- Tomas Fleischmann had a slump in late November, going four consecutive games without a point. Take that away, and Fleischmann has points in 13 of 15 games. He added a pair of assists to his point total last night. For the season he is on an 82-game scoring pace of 43-30-77.

- Alexander Semin had a pair of assists last night for his third multi-point game in a row and fourth in his last six. For the season he is on an 82-game scoring pace of 43-55-98.

- If you want to add in Nicklas Backstrom, who was quiet last night (on an 82-game pace of 22-68-90), Mike Green (an 82-game pace of 14-71-85), and Ovechkin (an 82-game pace of 75-45-120), this might be the most formidable offense in recent memory in the NHL.

- It might get lost in all of those pucks rocketing into opposing nets, but the Caps have done quite a job keeping pucks out of their own net. With last night’s shutout, that is nine of ten games in which the Caps have allowed three or fewer goals, seven of ten in which they have allowed two or fewer. But hey, they can’t play defense, and they have iffy goaltending, right?... right??

- And make that 13 of 15 games in which the Caps have allowed fewer than five power plays for the opposition. They’ve killed off the last 15 shorthanded situations they’ve faced, going back to a power play goal by Joe Corvo early in a 3-2 win over Carolina on November 30th.

- Odd, perhaps, that Mike Green did not register a shot on goal last night, seeing as how the Caps did manage 34 on Smith.

- All of a sudden, Martin St. Louis looks old, and Vincent Lecavalier looks disinterested. Hard to fathom that neither player registered 20 minutes of ice time last night, until you look and see that Lecavalier had only five shifts in the third period (none in the last seven minutes), and St. Louis had only four shifts (none in the last six minutes). Zenon Konopka had six shifts. Think Coach Rick Tocchet was sending a none-too-subtle message?

- If Semyon Varlamov doesn’t start getting more Calder buzz now, we have to wonder what’s going on. In his last nine games he has as many shutouts as he has occasions when he gave up more than two goals (two), and he is 7-0-2, 1.54, .945. What more could one ask for?

It was a solid night all around, exactly the sort of road game you would draw up. Keep the home team from getting off fast and getting the crowd, such as it was (12,400 official) into it, take advantage of opportunities, and slam the door when you have a lead. Wrap it up, put it on the plane, and take the same thing to Buffalo on Wednesday.

Another Round??

My heavens, it's like a Louisiana runoff election.* But you are invited to go and vote in the second round of the Great Capitals Blogosphere Blog-Off over at The NHL Arena.





Vote early, and vote often for your favorites.

* just teasin'

Winners, Top to Bottom

Washington: 18-5-6, first in the Eastern Conference (NHL), five game winning streak

Hershey: 17-7-2, first in the East Division (AHL), outscored opponents 22-7 in their last four games

South Carolina: 16-6-4, first in the American Conference (ECHL), seven game winning streak

That's a combined record of 51-18-12, and these teams have outscored their opponents 289-226. Quite a start to the season for the organ-eye-zation.

with thanks to johnwaltonhockey.com

The Precision of Mike Green

Too offense-oriented, not good enough in his own end, occasionally lazy with the puck. Blah-blah-blah. Those are the usual complaints about the play of Mike Green, who is the best offensive defenseman of his generation and who is a very underrated defender.

But there is something else about Green that is nothing short of amazing in the numbers he has posted to date. And that is precision. He is on precisely the scoring pace and the plus-minus pace this year that he finished with last year. You will recall that Green played in 68 games last year (missing 14 games to two separate bouts with shoulder injuries and a case of the flu). He finished 31-42-73, plus-24. At his current pace this year, if he was to play in 68 games he would finish 12-61-73, plus-24.

That he's getting there in a way very different from last year speaks well to Green's ability to adapt his game to what is there, and what isn't. What hasn't been there in as many instances this year is the weak-side pinch that would allow him to sneak behind the defense, take a pass, and rifle it over the goalie's glove. So what he is doing this year is that he is still getting pucks to the net (he's tied for the league lead in shots on goal among defensemen), but doing so in a way that gives others the chance to pounce on rebounds. And, he is otherwise getting the puck to the bevy of talented scorers the Caps have elsewhere on the roster.

Last year, Green was noteworthy for setting a record for consecutive games with a goal by a defenseman and for scoring 31 goals overall. This year, he is on a pace to tally 72 assists (if he was to play in all of the Caps' remaining games), far surpassing the second highest total by a defenseman in the last decade (64 by Nicklas Lidstrom in 2005-2006).

An extraordinary talent who takes advantage of his opportunities, shows an ability to adapt his game to those opportunities, and play within himself more than perhaps he is given credit for makes for an extremely valuable mix of skills for any team. Whether the Canadian Olympic team would be foolish to leave him off their roster is another discussion, but insofar as the Capitals are concerned, Green's value is very much appreciated.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, December 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s a Monday Madness Matchup between the streaking (five game winning streak) Capitals and the Home-cookin’ Tampa Bay Lightning (7-2-4 at home this year). The Caps will visit Tampa with their super-charged power play giving their opponents quite a jolt, and no one knows more about “jolts” than The World’s Mightiest Mortal, the man with the magic lightning himself, Captain Marvel. Captain, it’s good to see you.

“It’s good to be here.”

I didn’t know super heroes were hockey fans.

“Oh, I’m a big Capitals fan, Peerless. Every time I hear the word “Shazam!” I think of the Caps.”

Is that so? Why is that?

“Well, as all fans of the Justice League of America know, whenever my alter ego, Billy Batson, utters the word, 'Shazam!', he is struck by a lightning bolt and transformed into what you see before you, empowered with the abilities of six legendary figures.”

And what does that have to do with the Caps?

“Ah, I see those powers in the Capitals…”

Really?

“Oh, absolutely… ‘S’ stands for the wisdom of Solomon, and that’s Bruce Boudreau to a ‘T.’ He has pulled all the right levers in getting the Caps to the top of the Eastern Conference. Then there is ‘H’ for the strength of Hercules… that’s Brooks Laich going to the net. And, of course, ‘A’ stands for the stamina of Atlas. And there you have Mike Green skating almost 25 minutes a game and fourth in the league in power play ice time.”

Pretty impressive…

“That’s not all… ‘Z’stands for the power of Zeus. And with a power play leading the league at 24.6 percent, the Caps are pretty powerful themselves. ‘A’ stands for the courage of Achilles, and oh, where do you start… Quintin Laing throwing himself in front of shots, Matt Bradley standing up to anyone in a different colored sweater, Mathieu Perreault sticking his nose in the land of the giants on just about every shift… and then there is ‘M’ for the speed of Mercury, and that’s Alex Ovechkin steaming down the left wing, striking fear in the hearts of defensemen and goaltenders who have no idea what he’s going to do with the puck, other than deposit it into the net somehow, some way. And there you have it… Shazam!”

They’re a marvel, to be sure. But Tampa Bay has enjoyed quite a bit of success at the St. Pete Times Forum. No team has lost fewer games in regulation at home than have the Lightning (two). The dark cloud there, however, is that both losses have come in the Lightning’s last four games at home – a 4-3 loss to Toronto and a 3-0 loss to Colorado.

It part of a broader struggle for the Lightning, who are in the midst of a 1-3-1 run in which they’ve been outscored 14-10. It just hasn’t been a team that has had a lot of traction lately. One way to look at the recent problems for the Lightning is this – their leading scorer in the last four games is Jeff Halpern (3-1-4). Whatever skills Halpern has, if he is leading the Lightning in scoring for any appreciable length of time, chances are that the team is struggling, and right now they are doing just that, although their overall numbers aren’t bad…



The guys one would expect to be at the top of the scoring rankings for the Lightning – Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Steven Stamkos – are struggling of late. St. Louis hasn’t had a goal in eight games. Lecavalier is 2-3-5 in his last eight, continuing a year-long struggle to get footing in the scoring race (6-18-24 in 28 games), and Stamkos is 0-1-1 in his last four games and a minus-4.

And it isn’t as if the Lightning are getting a lot of support from down the roster. Ryan Malone hasn’t been bad – he is 1-2-3 in his last three games after a three game streak without a point – but it hasn’t been enough to lift he Lightning offense. And Alex Tanguay hasn’t had a goal in his last ten games dating back to a game-winner he had against Phoenix on November 16th.

In fact, the only Tampa Bay player with more than one goal in the last five games other that Jeff Halpern is Steve Downie.

We will repeat that…

The only Tampa Bay player with more than one goal in the last five games other that Jeff Halpern is Steve Downie. Downie is sixth on the team in overall scoring, although being sixth on this team in scoring is not quite the same as being sixth on, say, the Caps. Downie is 5-7-12 on the year for his sixth place spot in the Lightning scoring rankings. By way of comparison, Brendan Morrison is sixth for Washington at 9-14-23.

Lecavalier and St. Louis have been particular thorns in the sides of the Capitals over the years, and both have been better than a point a game player against Washington since the lockout (Lecavalier 18-19-37 in 28 games, St. Louis 12-19-31 in 29 games). But over the past two years, these two have been as likely to see the puck sail into their own net when they are on the ice as much as putting it into The Capitals’ net. Lecavalier is 6-9-15 in 13 games against the Caps over the last two seasons, but is a minus-7 in those games. St. Louis is 5-13-18 in 14 games, but is a minus-2.

On defense, the story for the Lightning might be the old and the new, with a Swedish twist. First, Victor Hedman of Ornskoldsvik, Sweden, was selected by the Lightning in the June 2009 entry draft. Although Hedman isn’t getting much in the way of Calder Trophy buzz, that might be a product of so very few statistics on which defensemen can build a case. However, he is already second on the team in ice time among defensemen (22:30/game) and is one of three Lightning defensemen averaging over two minutes a game on both the power play and the penalty kill. He has had his minutes dialed back, though, averaging a shade under 19 minutes a game in his last seven contests compared to averaging almost 24 minutes in his first 20 games.

At the other end of the blue line age scale is Mattias Ohlund of Pitea, Sweden, who was signed as a free agent by the Lightning this past summer. The 33-year old joined Tampa Bay after spending his first 11 seasons in Vancouver. Ohlund has struggled a bit with injury and production. He missed seven games with a lower body injury in late November, but otherwise has only six points (all assists) in 21 games. Ohlund is primarily a defensive defenseman, but he has never finished a full season (at least 60 games played) having scored fewer than 25 points.

Coach Rick Tocchet has been alternating goaltenders Mike Smith and Antero Niittymaki over the past five games, and if this pattern holds, Niittymaki will get the start tonight. He would be a good choice. Niittymaki is 5-2-1 against the Caps over his career, with a 2.31 GAA and .927 save percentage. Over the last two years, he is 3-0-0, 1.68, .954. However, all of that was with Philadelphia. Still, he has had more success against the Caps than teammate Mike Smith, who is 0-2-0, 6.67, .776 in his career against the Caps.

Keys…

1. Fitting the pieces. The Caps scored 14 goals in two games while Alex Ovechkin was sent off for a two-game time-out for not playing well with others. You’d have to think Ovechkin was pacing the floors like a caged lion during those two games, watching his teammates pounding the Panthers and Flyers, wishing he could be in on the fun. The temptation here might be to take over the NHL scoring lead on his first shift or see how many Lightning he can put lights-out. Given how well the Caps have performed in his absence, he’d be better served, not to mention the team, if he blends in rather than tries to stir the drink all by himself.

2. Don’t make it a special game. Tampa Bay has played only six home games (of 17 total) since November 1st. But in those games, the Lightning are 6-for-24 on the power play (25.0 percent). Since November 1st, the Caps are 22-for-31 in killing road penalties (71.0 percent). That’s not a good mix. Fortunately for the Caps, they have allowed only 31 man advantages to the opponent in nine road games since November 1st (3.44/game). Keep that up, and the visitors should be alright.

3. G…39. Bingo! OK, 39 is actually in the “N” column of a bingo card, but 39 is a number to watch. Yes, Alex Ovechkin is 20-20-40 in 30 career games against Tampa Bay, and Alexander Semin is 13-11-24 in 23 games against the Lightning. But David Steckel is 6-5-11, plus-7 in his last dozen games against the Lightning. And now, since he got off the schneid of being without a goal this season…

Tampa Bay has hung around the edge of the top-eight for most of the season. That is quite an improvement over last year’s train wreck of a season. They are on pace for a 22-point improvement over last year’s finish. But the other side of that is that the Lightning have won consecutive games only twice this season (once including a Gimmick win), and strangely enough they won the second game on each occasion on the 12th of the month (against Florida in October, against Minnesota in November). It’s too early in December for the Lightning to win a second consecutive game after beating the Islanders last Saturday. So…

Caps 4 – Lightning 2

Top Ten

And now, the top ten reasons Daniel Carcillo sucker punched Matt Bradley...

Number 10. ““He kind of came at me the shift before. He was talking to me before. I thought we were going to fight."

Number 9. “Everything happened pretty quick, I saw him drop his gloves, so I started punching him."

Number 8. “I didn’t like the sissy helmet he wears.”

Number 7. “I was channeling my inner Dave Schultz.”

Number 6. “I didn’t have one yet this week.”

Number 5. “I needed a quick tune up before my pay-per-view bout with Bobby Pulaski of the Camden Mites.”

Number 4. “Nothing impresses a new coach like taking 29 minutes in penalties and putting my team on a nine-minute penalty kill.”

Number 3. “I needed one more fight to get a free ‘I’m a Broad Street Bully’ bumper sticker”

Number 2. “Ian Laperriere was parading around the locker room before the game saying, “I’m the fight king, I’m the fight king!’”

And the number one reason Daniel Carcillo sucker punched Matt Bradley…

“What, you expect me to play hockey?”

Bourque's Back

With teddy bears!

Here's the video, courtesy of johnwaltonhockey.org

A TWO-point night: Caps 8 - Flyers 2

"There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what's possible."

Oh, my God!... You saw the Caps game!

Wachovia Center was the “Rink of Dreams” for the Washington Capitals tonight as they scored early, scored often, and scored from everywhere but from the top of the William Penn statue in pounding the Philadelphia Flyers, 8-2. When we wrote up the pregame, we thought that the first ten minutes would be a key. It was, but not in a way we conceived, and certainly not in a way that the Flyers were hoping for – it was the Caps who got off fast, getting a goal in the first minute. Tomas Fleischmann, who snapped a seven game streak without a goal in Thursday’s game against Florida, popped one past Flyer goalie Ray Emery at the 57 second mark on the first shot of the game. Welcome, Mr. Laviolette.

Philly evened things up just past the 12 minute mark, but a couple of minutes later, the new coach got a good look at what he inherited. Daniel (not Danny) Carcillo was on the receiving end of a finishing check by Matt Bradley at the Flyers’ blue line. Carcillo then proceeded to cross-check Bradley in the back once, twice, then dropped his gloves and grabbed Bradley’s jersey. Unable to free himself from Carcillo’s clutch and in the midst of ridding himself of his gloves, Bradley was then on the business end of a sucker punch square on the cheek that dropped him to the ice.

Carcillo was given a cross-checking, an instigator, a fighting, a misconduct and a game misconduct – a total of 29 minutes in penalties – and an early shower. If he could have been given a dunce cap, he would have had one. It took his team right out of the game moments after they climbed back into it, putting the Caps on a nine-minute power play.

The Caps didn’t look especially sharp early on the advantage, but they made up for it late. Fleischmann converted a pass from Eric Fehr from the half wall, Mike Green took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom and made it a 3-1 lead at the first intermission, and Brooks Laich put one in from the top of the crease in the first minute of the second period to make it three goals on the extended power play and a 4-1 lead.

After that, it was pure fun for Caps fans watching, especially in seeing Chris Clark getting only his third goal of the year and David Steckel getting the 500-pound gorilla off his back by swatting in a feed from Mike Green for his first of the season. It was a pure case of doing what you’re supposed to – Steckel charging hard to the net as Green was setting up on the near wall. Making a bee line for the far post, Steckel had only to get his stick in position to convert the fine pass – it was a pretty play on both ends.

Other stuff…

- The article of goalie equipment that’s worn on the hand holding the stick is called a “blocker.” In Ray Emery’s case, should it be called the “letter inner?”

- Does Nicklas Backstrom like playing against the Flyers? Here are the lines of his games against Philly this year…

Game 1: 0-3-3, plus-2
Game 2: 1-3-4, plus-3
Game 3: 1-4-5, plus-1

If you’re a Flyer fan, be afraid… be very afraid for Game 4.

- By the way, that makes Backstrom 5-16-21 in 11 career games against the Flyers.

- If such a thing could be lost in an 8-2 game, Mike Green had a four-point night (2-2-4). That’s 17 points in his last 12 games (3-14-17), vaulting him into the scoring lead among NHL defensemen (5-25-30).

- Corey Masisak over at the Washington Times noted that the Caps have 36 goals in eight games without Alex Ovechkin. At 4.5 goals per game, Corey notes, that would be more than one goal per game more (at 4.50 goals/game) more than any other team in the league.

- 12 of 18 skaters had points, six had multi-point games. Six players shared the eight goals. Balance, balance, balance.

- Steckel’s goal came on his only shot. And yes, it was another “plus” night in the circle for him (four wins in seven faceoffs).

- The Caps had four power play goals tonight on only six shots with the man advantage. You can’t argue with that kind of efficiency. The Caps started the evening sixth in the league on the power play (22.6 percent). If no one above them improved their numbers, this evening pushed the Caps into first in the league (24.6 percent).

- Mathieu Perreault might not have had a point, but he had a nice night anyway. Five shot attempts (three on goal), a takeaway, and he won nine of 14 draws in just short of 15 minutes. And this with getting smeared into the end boards by Chris Pronger once and flattened at the goal mouth on another occasion.

- Karl Alzner, thug. That’s penalties in consecutive games for the budding enforcer. We expect Colin Campbell to hand down a supplemental discipline decision any moment now for Alzner’s egregious hooking infraction.

- What’s with all the cheering when referee Stephane Auger took one in the ear hole? Philly fans… they’d have been cheering when Ivan Drago dropped Apollo Creed in that exhibition match.

- Mike Richards was on the ice for four Caps goals tonight… not a Selke moment. At least he wasn’t on the ice for the most goals scored by the Caps. That would be the big-money free agent defenseman (five goals).

- Only three Flyers were not on the ice for at least one Caps goal, and Carcillo (and his 3:54 of ice time) was one of them. If you’re going to suck, do it as a team.

- Danny (not Daniel) Briere… 15 minutes, one shot, one hit, one blocked shot, many yawns.

- The Caps have 14 goals in their last two games (yes, without Alex Ovechkin). It’s the most in consecutive games since December 29/January 1 in the 2007-2008 season, when the Caps lit up the Senators in a home-and-home for 14 goals.

- Eric Fehr, playmaker? Two assists tonight makes four in three games, and he extended his points streak to six games, adding to his career high.

- Alexander Semin might need surgery on his wrist (or so we read)? Six points in two games after returning from injury (two assists tonight). More guys should be so hurt.

- And let’s not lose sight of the fact that when a team goes on a tear in the other guy’s zone, it takes a lot of focus for a goaltender to keep his own end clean. Jose Theodore stopped 34 of 36 shots in a very solid effort.

- And speaking of solid efforts at the other end of the ice, John Erskine – 17:28 in ice time, three hits, three blocked shots, not on the ice for either Flyer goal.

Sometimes, there are moments that give hints that a season is unfolding that could be really special, and there were two things that happened tonight that suggest that such a season might be unfolding for the Caps. First, we heard in the postgame that Matt Bradley got the hard hat tonight. Bradley played only 3:20 tonight before his evening was ended by a sucker punch, but don’t think for a moment that the guys don’t appreciate the warrior that Bradley is. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more stand-up-for-others guy anywhere; he’s the kind of guy for whom you’d be really happy if his name was sent to an engraver to put on a special piece of hardware next summer.

The other was a comment by Bruce Boudreau after the game, a response to what seemed like a provocative question concerning whether the Caps were running up the score, a reference to Backstrom and Green being on the ice for a power play when the game was 7-2. Boudreau was quick to point out that Steckel was out on that power play, too, that he wanted to try to get Steckel a goal after putting in all the hard work he has so far without getting one. Boudreau commented that it was about doing something for his team and players, not running up the score. That was the kind of comment from a coach who understands, who has put in enough miles to see how important it is to do something for the guys who don’t get the ink.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, December 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Saturday night's alright for hockey, and the Caps are taking to the road to visit the City of Brotherly Love for a meeting with the Philadelphia Flyers. The Caps will be doing so as the Flyers welcome a new coach, John Stevens having been relieved of his duties in favor of Peter Laviolette. In doing so, the Flyers… excuse me, what’s this?

“The List.”

The List?

“Yeah, the Top-Ten List…”

Where’d you get this, young lady?

“I used to work on the Letterman show…”

Ah, say no more. Now, let’s take a look at this… hmm… "The Top Ten Reasons John Stevens Was Fired"…



Number 10. Ed Snider found out he had a satellite dish instead of Comcast.

Number 9. Put a copy of “12 Steps to Effective Anger Management” in each of his player’s lockers.

Number 8. He failed to address a certain defenseman as “Mr. Pronger, sir.”

Number 7. When asked who Dave Schultz was, he answered, “the sergeant on Hogan’s Heroes.”

Number 6. He kept telling people that the Flyers played at “Whack-Off”ia Center.

Number 5. Told General Manager Paul Holmgren that the Flyers’ colors should be changed because they were “too Halloweenie.”

Number 4. Rooted for Pittsburgh in last year’s Stanley Cup final.

Number 3. Wanted to coach a game behind the Flyers’ bench dressed as a mummer.

Number 2. He ordered a vegetarian cheese steak at Geno’s

And the number one reason John Stevens was fired by the Philadelphia Flyers…

He didn’t win enough games.


What an odd circle these teams have traveled to get to this game. Barely two years ago, a coach stood behind his team’s bench for the first time in the same arena in which tonight’s game will be played, taking over for a struggling team that seemed to be on a trajectory to finish out of the playoffs. Tonight, the scene replays itself, with a new coach standing behind the other bench. It was Bruce Boudreau in November 2007 taking over the reins for the slumping Caps from Glen Hanlon, and tonight it will be Peter Laviolette, who takes over for John Stevens behind the struggling Flyers’ bench.

Laviolette is no stranger to the NHL. He has 487 games of experience coaching with two other teams – the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes, the latter of which he led to a Stanley Cup title in 2006. But here is the ominous part… that was the only year in three full seasons and a partial season that he completed in Carolina that he made the playoffs. He has two other playoff seasons on his resume – both with the Islanders – but he did not win a playoff round in either year. He does have a respectable regular season record, though, having gone 244-188-25-30 as he takes over in Philadelphia.

The team Laviolette inherits is still a formidable club, as the numbers suggest...



But the Flyers are also a team struggling of late. They have lost six of their last seven games, outscored by 23-12 in the process. The 12 goals scored in six games is part of a longer slump in which Philadelphia has scored only 20 goals in their past ten games and more than three in a game only once. They were shutout by their last two opponents – Atlanta and Vancouver.

Part of the problem is that the power play hasn’t had much juice lately. In the last ten games, it is sputtering along at a 12.1 percent pace (4-for-33). If there is a silver lining – and a warning to the Capitals – in that power play number, it is this. The Flyers played six of those ten games on the road, and the Flyers are tied for the top spot in the league in power play opportunities at home (67 in 14 games).

Needless to say, there isn’t any Flyer you could reasonably consider “hot” in terms of offensive statistics. The top five scorers for Philadelphia have had ten-game totals that look like this…

Jeff Carter: 3-3-6
Mike Richards: 3-4-7
James van Riemsdyk: 2-2-4
Scott Hartnell: 3-3-6
Chris Pronger: 1-1-2

12 goals out of their top-five scorers over the last ten games places a lot of pressure on the undercard of the roster to produce. And the trouble with that is much of it has been injured or otherwise on the shelf. Darroll Powe, who is tied for sixth on the club in goals scored, has been out since November 20th with a strained shoulder. Daniel (DCMD – Don’t Call Me Danny) Briere sat for two of the last ten games, courtesy of a suspension for a late hit on Colorado’s Scott Hannan, then he missed one due to the flu. Briere is the closest thing to “hot” on the Flyers’ roster (scoring-wise, that is) with 3-4-7 in the seven games he played out of the Flyers’ last ten.

Still, Carter (15 games, 7-9-16), Richards (16 games, 6-9-15), Hartnell (16 games, 9-6-15), and Briere (24 games, 9-11-20) are just about point-a-game players against the Caps over their respective careers.

If the Flyers need to get someone else to contribute, that would be Claude Giroux. In the early part of this ten-game offensive drought, he was the one Flyer producing, going 2-6-8 over the first five of those games. But in the last five, he is 0-1-1, and the biggest thing on his resume in those games was getting into his first NHL fight (against Colorado’s Marek Svatos).

On the blue line, the Flyers are a talented group, especially their top four of Chris Pronger, Matt Carle, Kimmo Timonen, and Braydon Coburn. They log the big minutes (all of them over 20 minutes a game), they contribute offensively (all have more than ten points), and none of them have yet missed a contest this year. They have been the one constant for the Flyers thus far. They will bear watching in this respect. If you compare that top four with the Caps’ top four, the striking difference is that they Flyers’ quartet get pucks to the net in the offensive end. They have a total of 182 shots on goal in 25 games. Meanwhile, the Caps’ top four defensemen (in ice time) who will be most likely to play in this game (Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Brian Pothier, and Milan Jurcina) have a combined 155 shots on goal in 27 games, and Green has 79 of those. Even if shots don’t go in, they create commotion in front that teammates can take advantage of.

In goal, you’d have to wonder what the new coach’s thinking is going to be here. Does he go with the hot hand? Brian Boucher – in the nets for the decision in four of the last five Flyer games – has a GAA in those last four games of 1.73 and a save percentage of .933. It is testimony to how much the Flyers are struggling on offense that he is 1-3-0 in those last four games.

Or, does Laviolette go with Ray Emery? In his last four games (one of which he was pulled from in favor of Boucher), Emery is 0-3-0, 4.69, .824. After starting the season 10-3-1 and giving indications that the gamble to sign him would pay off for the Flyers, he has recorded one win since November 12th.

Keys…

1. Ten. The first ten minutes, that is. This is always a tightly contested affair, and it will have the added intensity that comes from a team wanting to take out its recent frustrations on the visitor, wanting to get the new coach off to a good start, and a rabid crowd. But the Caps are 5-1-1 in their last seven regular season games in South Philly. They can do this… but getting past those first ten minutes will go a long way toward ensuring that result.

2. Balance. In the Caps’ modest four game winning streak, seven players have the 14 goals the Caps have scored, and 13 players have points. In the absence of Alex Ovechkin for almost two full games of those four, the goal scoring has been picked up by Eric Fehr (four goals) and Nicklas Backstrom (three). Eight players have at least two assists. Against a Flyers team that will employ four defensemen for the lion’s share of the time (unless the new coach has other ideas) the pressure has to come from up and down the lineup.

3. Memories. Rewind back to that 2007 game when Bruce Boudreau took over. The Caps squandered a 3-0 lead in allowing the Flyers to tie the game. But the game was won by the Caps in overtime when Nicklas Backstrom curled the puck onto his stick, slid it around a sprawled Martin Biron, and lifted it over Biron into the net for a 4-3 win. Well, that’s hardly been the only success Backstrom has had against the Flyers. In ten career regular season games against Philadelphia he is 4-12-16. In two games this year he is 1-6-7. He could be the spoiler of the new coach’s debut.

The man Boudreau coached against that evening in November 2007, and who departed as Flyers coach yesterday – John Stevens – takes his leave very much a “Flyers Man.” He was a 1984 draft pick of the Flyers as a defenseman. Although he played in only nine games for the Flyers (he would also play in 44 games for the Hartford Whalers), he would score the first goal in the history of the Flyer’s AHL affiliate, the Philadelphia Phantoms. He also coached the Phantoms for six seasons after his retirement as a player, winning a Calder Cup along the way.

Unfortunately, perhaps, the most distinctive part of Stevens' legacy is that he set, and later tied, the Flyers’ franchise record for consecutive losses – ten (0-9-1 in 1005-2006 and 0-8-2 in 2007-2008). Nevertheless, it is always sad when anyone loses a job, even the coach of a fierce rival of the club we root for. And in that sense, we wish Stevens success in his future.

Here is an odd product of the change behind the Flyers’ bench – Bruce Boudreau is now the third-longest tenured coach with his current team among the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference, trailing only Lindy Ruff in Buffalo and Claude Julien in Boston. We think that while the roles have been reversed since November 2007, the result will be the same on the scoreboard…

Caps 4 – Flyers 3

¡Viva la revolución!

The fine folks over at Japers' Rink had the stupendous idea of printing up signs for last night's game expressing solidarity with Alex Ovechkin, sentenced to a two-game suspension by the league for his collision with Tim Gleason a few nights ago. By all accounts, it was a hit (no pun intended). But little did they know what they unleashed...

Countries topple from lesser movements. Power to the people!!!

A TWO-point night: Caps 6 - Panthers 2

If you diagrammed a play, wrote up a game plan, ran plays in practice, they would look a lot like the first 56 minutes of the Caps’ 6-2 win over the Florida Panthers tonight. The Caps were that dominant. Yes, Florida was playing their second game in two nights and third game in four nights. Boo-hoo. The Caps have had four such runs of games so far this year, so you’ll forgive the Caps if they lacked the politically correct amount of sympathy.

And yes, the Cats were playing without their number one goalie, forced to use backup Scott Clemmensen on consecutive nights. Well, boo-hoo-hoo. Take Keith Ballard’s stick away from him.

And yes, the Panthers were without top forwards David Booth and Cory Stillman. Well, gee… we didn’t see Alex Ovechkin or Mike Knuble out on the ice, either. Call a whaaaaaaa-mbulance.

Nope, tonight the Caps did what fans want them to do – take an opponent, run them into the ice early, then stand on their throats and don’t let them up. It worked for 56 minutes. Had the Caps managed to keep it up for those last four minutes, goalie Semyon Varlamov would likely have had his second straight shutout. But the Caps got a bit lackadaisical in those waning minutes, and the Panthers got a couple of markers.

But let’s focus on some of the good stuff for the moment, eh?...

- Nine different players had points for the Caps, three of whom had multi-point games (Brendan Morrison, Brooks Laich, and Alexander Semin).

- Alexander Semin was 2-2-4 tonight, meaning that he has four goals in his last four games. Trouble is, the first of those games was November 11th. He didn’t look the worse for wear on his injured wrist, though. He launched ten shot attempts at Panther goalies, five of them reaching the net, two of them going in.

- Matt Bradley is the hardest working ten minute a night player in the league. A shorthanded goal, a sweet curl-and-drag that left Dmitry Kulikov gasping for air (unfortunately, Bradley didn’t convert that one), a takeaway, and winner of the only faceoff he took. It’s time, folks, to…



- A guy with a name like “Mike Duco” is a villain in waiting, the sort of guy who gets a film credit like “second thug on the right” at the end of a gangster movie. Well, he was on full display tonight in this, his second NHL game. Alexandre Giroux applied an enthusiastic check on Kulikov in the Panthers’ end of the ice – the sort of thing players do (or should do) all the time. Kulikov went down in a heap to the cheers of the crowd. Duco took this personally, apparently, and chased Giroux down at the opposite blue line, proceeding to pummel Giroux about the shoulders. Giroux, not getting the memo that said, “thou shalt not finish a check,” took his lumps for the team. When Duco was peeled off Giroux, he was give a two-minute penalty for instigating, a five-minute penalty for fighting, a ten minute misconduct, and a game misconduct. It was the sort of performance you’d see by a marginal prospect in a preseason game, hoping to impress the coaches with his moxie. The 27 minutes in his second game was certainly impressive. He is hardly a novice when it comes to bareknuckled contests, though. He’s had two fights in the AHL so far this year, nine last year in the AHL, eight the previous year in the OHL (including postseason), seven the year before that, and… well, you see the pattern.

- Florida took 43 minutes in penalties tonight, giving the Caps 12 power play opportunities. The Panthers didn’t get cheated on their infractions, either. In addition to young Mr. Duco’s hijinks, the Panthers were whistled for slashing (twice), hooking (twice), high-sticking, elbowing, boarding, and slashing. The Panthers wore the ice down to the cement blazing a path to the penalty box.

- The Caps’ 44-28 lead in shots doesn’t really tell the story of dominance. They out-attempted the Panthers 84-50 (including misses and blocked shots). The only Cap without a shot on goal – not just an attempt, but a shot on goal – was Jeff Schultz (yes, he did have one attempt – it was blocked).

- How can a guy who pots 75 goals in a season look so completely flummoxed when glorious opportunities appear on his stick in close? Such was the night of Alexandre Giroux, who probably should have had a hat trick tonight. That he didn’t (despite getting a whopping 6:45 in power play time on ice) is telling.

- Speaking of playing time, Mike Green had more power play time (13:32) than five Panthers had total ice time.

- Mathieu Perreault has no fear. None. We continue to be impressed by his compete level.

- Call CNN! Karl Alzner took a minor penalty – his second as an NHLer. The thing is, he got called for the penalty (high-sticking) right after it looked like he took a stick in the chops.

- David Steckel is officially snake-bitten. He had his chances tonight, too, but the puck seemed to have eyes enough to slither past the pipe on a couple of occasions. When he gets his first goal, he’ll get it facing the wrong way, backhanding the puck off three bodies and a post. It’ll probably feel like an Ovechkin wrister to him.

- The first Panther goal could be said to be on Varlamov, as Stephen Weiss collected his own long rebound and flipped it past Varlamov. But does someone want to explain this?...



…how does a guy take a pass in his own right wing faceoff circle, skate the length of the ice, get surrounded by four Caps, and still get a clean shot off with two defenders doing a good job of screening their own goalie? And no one takes him out of the way of his own rebound?

- Keith Ballard was in a giving mood. He was credited with more giveaways (five) than the rest of his teammates combined (four).

- Gotta be the stick. It’s five games in a row and counting for Eric Fehr registering a point (and six of his last seven).

- The Caps have scored 17 goals in three games against Florida so far this year. It’s worth noting that Alex Ovechkin has played in none of those games.

It would have been nice to get Varlamov that second shutout in a row, but that’s rather picky. The Caps took care of business, putting Florida behind the eight-ball early and not letting them get a glimpse of the other side of it until the very end of the game. It was a simple case of kicking a cat when it was down. It’s something the Caps fail to take advantage of too often, but tonight, they made life difficult for a weakened team playing on fumes. By the end, the Panthers looked as if they just wanted to get off the ice and go home.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, December 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are back home, if only briefly, to host the Florida Panthers in a Southeast Division Marquee Matchup (as they say). It is the Caps’ only taste of home cooking over a span of six games dating from November 28th (a win in Montreal) through December 9th (at Buffalo). The Panthers, meanwhile, are jetting to Washington for their only road game in four from last night through next Monday. The Panthers and the Caps are two teams…

“Hey, a goalie and a defenseman walk into a bar…”

Rodney!

“Hey, Peerless, how ya doin’, how ya doin’…”

Great, Rodney. And what brings you back from the great beyond for a hockey game?

“What can I tell ya… a guy whacks his goalie after the other team scores a goal. And I thought I got no respect.”

It really happened.

“Hey, I played in some tough rooms, but you give up a goal, then you get whacked by your own guy… now that’s a tough room!”

And I’ll bet you’ve heard some jokes about it, too.

“What can I tell ya… a goalie and a defenseman walk into a bar. The bartender says to the defenseman, 'what’ll ya have?' And he says, ‘a goalie maskbanger.’”

Guess you had to be there…

“Yeah, the Marlins have already offered that Ballard guy a contract… He was just frustrated ‘cuz he never played tee-ball as a kid… huh, and I thought they only did ‘the chop’ in Atlanta…”

Tomas Vokoun really took one on the melon.

“Yeah, but he shoulda seen my doctor, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz…"

Why is that?

“He’s got a great save percentage.”

For his patients?

“No, he’s a goalie in a rec league in Vegas.”

Well, maybe Vinnie should play for the Panthers, because if there are two teams going in opposite directions, they are Washington and Florida. The overall numbers for these teams tell a tale of two very different hockey teams (all numbers before last night’s action)…


Those defensive statistics are rather grim – bottom five in goals against, 5-on-5, and penalty killing. And now, they face the prospect of Scott Clemmensen having to start on consecutive nights (he was expected to get the nod last night against Colorado). If not him, the task of taking on the Caps could fall to Alexander Salak. Neither choice is going to give comfort to Panther fans. Clemmensen has one start against the Caps this year for Florida, and he allowed seven goals on 32 shots – five on 16 shots in the third period -- in a 7-4 loss on November 7th. Meanwhile, Salak has appeared in one game for the Panthers this year – way back on October 9th – allowing two goals on seven shots in mop-up duty in a 7-2 loss to Carolina. That was Carolina’s last win in regulation until November 21st. Add to that the fact that Florida is on a five game losing streak (0-3-2 going into last night’s game), and things look bleak.

And if that isn’t enough, the Panthers have forwards David Booth, Cory Stillman, and Kenndal McArdle on the shelf. Stillman appears closest to returning, but it won’t be tonight. Another scoop on this sundae is that no Panther is on a pace to score as many as 70 points this year. Nathan Horton leads the club with 22 points (7-15-22), which puts him on a pace for 69 by year’s end. He has, however, picked his pace of late. He has points in nine of his last ten games (3-8-11).

At the other end is Steve Reinprecht, who has cooled off some from the good start he had. In his first 13 games this year, Reinprecht was 9-4-13, plus-6. In his last 13 games, he is 1-6-7, minus-1. Part of his problem might be that he has only 12 shots on goal in his last nine games. He’s been something less than a good-luck charm against the Caps this year. In two games he is minus-4; he’s plus-9 against the rest of the league.

Michael Frolik has been on something of an odd pattern of scoring of late. Starting on November 7th in the 7-4 loss to Washington, he’s almost perfect in alternating games with and without points (he had points in consecutive games on November 18th and 20th). Over those 12 games, he is 5-4-9, minus-2. Given that the Panthers were playing Colorado last night, Frolik is someone who bears watching in this contest.

On the back line, Florida has seven defensemen who have recorded at least one goal and at least seven points. For a team that is ranked so low in the standings and in so many statistical categories, it is somewhat remarkable that of those seven defensemen, four of them are on the plus side of the ledger. The flip side of that is that Bryan Allen and Dmitry Kulikov are a combined minus-15. Kulikov is an interesting case of on-the-job training. Although he is a minus-9 for the year, he has only one minus game in his last 12 and is 3-1-4, plus-1 over that span. All in all, it’s not bad improvement for a kid drafted this past June.

Allen, on the other hand, has struggled of late. In his last five games he is without a point, minus-4 and took a fighting major in a 3-2 loss to Pittsburgh on November 23rd. He’s relied upon to police his own end, and that has been a bit of a problem.

For offense from the blue line, the Panthers have Bryan McCabe, who leads the defense in scoring (3-9-12). But he has only one point (an assist) in his last six games after getting points in seven of his previous nine.

Keys:

Full and even strength. The Caps have a 0.60 goal advantage in 5-on-5 ratio over Florida. That is quite an advantage for the Caps, especially playing at home.

Shots, shots, shots. Florida has allowed the second most shots on goal per game in the league (35.1). The Caps as a team are shooting at 10.8 percent success clip. On the basis of those numbers, you’re starting by looking at a four-goal night for the home team if they can feed the Florida goalie his customary portion of shots.

“Brooks” no resistance. Brooks Laich is without a goal in his last six games and has only two points over that span. But he has a five game points streak against the Panthers (3-3-6) dating back to last season. There might not be any better tonic for Laich than the Panthers visiting town.

In the end, the Caps – even with a good portion of their lineup out due to or just coming back from injury – have too much firepower for the Cats. The Caps have been behind teams at the first intermission only twice this year, and Florida wasn’t one of them (the Islanders were, both times). This game should be over by then… right?

Caps 5 – Panthers 1

Shocking New Developments!!!

By now, more pixels have been devoted to the Alex-Ovechkin-knee-on-Tim-Gleason-knee hit last night than the health care policy debate, the White House party crashers, and Tiger Woods' driving habits combined. Every conceivable angle of the play has appeared on video somewhere from YouTube to…

“Not every angle…”

Not every angle?

“No…you don’t have any film from the Grassy Luxury Suite.”

The…

“The Grassy Luxury Suite.”

Let me guess, you are…


“Abraham Zapruder”

I gather from the Bell and Howell camera you’re holding. Most folks have graduated to digital.

“Yeah?... any of those folks more famous than me?”

Good point. So, you captured the infamous moment on 8mm film, I take it.

“That’s right, and the frames are quite revealing.”

Well, here are the stills captured from the telecast…

“Ah, but they miss so much. Let’s look at the critical frames from the film I shot from near the Grassy Luxury Suite. Here are the teams skating in the Carolina zone. You can clearly see Ovechkin on the right closing on on Tim Gleason carrying the puck. All is well here, just another play…"

"But then the players close on one another, and they brace for contact. It is obvious from this angle that Gleason sees Ovechkin coming, and prepares for the hit. It’s also obvious that both players spent too much time at the pre-game all-you-can-eat barbecue at Bubba’s House of Pig…"

"We’re almost to the kill-shot in this frame. Ovechkin opens up his knee to prepare to give Gleason a fatal blow. You can see how vulnerable Gleason is to the imminent hit. It also appears that Ovechkin’s helmet is exploding…"

"Just an instant before impact in this frame. Gleason is clearly unable to avoid Ovechkin’s knee and whispers in his ear, “what’s your problem?” Ovechkin doesn’t have time to translate this from English to Russian and back to English to tell Gleason that he’s a goober…"

"And now, the critical moment. Ovechkin’s right knee is clearly extended, and by the quivering lips you see on Gleason, you can tell instantly that it hurts and that he is dazed by the collision as his head goes back, and to the left…"

"But here is the key frame, the one that the league obviously didn’t have when it handed down Ovechkin’s two-game suspension. You can see here that Gleason is merely playing to the crowd, milking the play for all it’s worth, but he is clearly not so injured as the other angles of the play would have led you to believe…"

"And finally, here is Ovechkin, having skated to the penalty box, where he is being told by the referee that his evening is over, having been docked with a major penalty and a game misconduct. Ovechkin is obviously confused by the decision…"

My my… Those frames are rather conclusive evidence that Ovechkin should not have been penalized so severely. Wouldn’t you agree?

“I can’t give you an opinion on that, but I have read about some conspiracy theories and even that there was a second hit-man. I’m sure there will be enough to fuel conspiracy theorists for years to come.”

Well, thank you, Mr. Zapruder, and thank your Bell and Howell for shedding some badly needed light on this historic moment in hockey history.

“My pleasure… "

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Hurricanes 2

It is the worst picture Caps fans can conceive of, and not even a 3-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes tonight can erase the image of Alex Ovechkin being helped off the ice on one leg after crumpling to the ice as a result of a knee-on-knee hit with Carolina’s Tim Gleason in the first period.

The injury to Ovechkin cast a dark cloud over some fine performances for the Caps tonight. To wit…

Nicklas Backstrom had a three-point night, his first multi-point night since November 7th and the most points he’s recorded in a game since a four-point night against Philadelphia on October 27th. He also won 12 of 23 draws and was not deemed guilty by the official scorer of a turnover.

Jose Theodore stopped 37 of the first 38 shots he faced and 38 of 40 overall to give his skaters some comfort and stability as they were dealing with Ovechkin’s absence. He single-handedly kept the Caps in it early as Carolina outshot the Caps 13-1 in the first 7:18, Theodore stopping 12 of them.

David Steckel… he’s still without a goal this season, but he had an interesting night, nevertheless. Steckel lost his first seven draws, then won 11 in a row before finishing 11-for-21. It was the 25th time in 27 tries that he finished a game with at least 50 percent wins on faceoffs.

Other stuff…

- Think injuries are becoming a problem? The Caps’ top line at the end of the game was Tomas Fleischmann-Nicklas Backstrom-Alexandre Giroux.

- For Eric Fehr, it was the best of times and the worst of times. Fehr had a goal and an assist (that makes four goals in three games). He also took two high-sticking penalties in the third period (of four third period penalties the Caps took).

- Don’t look now, but Ovechkin leads the league in game misconduct penalties (two).

- How is Ovechkin’s absence felt? Here is one way – the Caps had only four shots on goal on five power plays. By way of comparison, Carolina had 12 shots on seven power plays.

- Alexandre “Chauncey Gardner” Giroux… less than ten minutes, plus-3, and an assist.

- Jeff Schultz, five blocked shots in almost 18 minutes. Overall, 12 Caps had blocked shots.

- Tim Gleason has a rather eventful night for Carolina. Not only was he the recipient of the Ovechkin knee, after he missed a couple of shifts he finished the night with four shots (seven attempts), four hits, three blocked shots, and two penalties (a misconduct and a minor). All that was missing was the partridge in the pear tree.

- Eric Staal had 17 shot attempts for Carolina (almost a third of the attempts the Caps had – 59), but only two in the last 14 minutes of the game (both in the last two minutes).

- Carolina was credited with 45 hits. Seven Hurricanes were credited with at least four. Stormy the Pig (described as a “furry ball of fun” on the ‘Canes’ web site) had eight of them… we think.

- Much as we liked Nicky’s performance tonight, Theodore was the number one star.

- Well, the Caps spread it around… seven players shared in the nine penalties (seven minors, a major, and a game misconduct).

- Satchel Paige once said (although he probably wasn’t the first), “don't look back, something may be gaining on you.” Well, Atlanta is now in fifth place in the conference, seven points behind Washington and Pittsburgh, and they have three games in hand on the Caps, four on the Penguins.

- Three teams from the Southeast are in the top-eight (Tampa Bay being the other one). Go figure.

- Tomas Flesichmann had a pair of layups on his stick tonight and could convert neither of them. You’d think he was playing for the Wizards.

- Attendance was officially recorded as 12,797 at the RBC Center. It looked on TV like a Caps game at Verizon Center… from say, 2006.

- The seven power plays the Caps surrendered was the most since allowing eight to Atlanta on October 22nd. It was only the second time this month that they gave up more than five, the other time being on the first day of the month, to Columbus. It was the first time they gave up more than four since November 4th.

- You like consistency? The Caps finished October 8-2-3; they finished November 8-3-3.

- December will be a bear. Eight of 13 games are on the road, including a western swing to Colorado, Vancouver, and Edmonton in the middle of the month, then out to San Jose to close the year.

All in all, if a Caps fan had to trade two points for a healthy Ovechkin, it would be the easiest choice in the history of earth. But for now, all Caps Nation can do is wait for the injury verdict, not to mention the league's for the kneeing penalty (although after the game, Tarik El-Bashir reported in the Washington Post seeing Ovechkin walking with a limp, but without brace or crutch). As of tonight, the Caps are without their first, sixth and seventh leading scorers (Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Mike Knuble). They are without two top-six defensemen (Tom Poti, Shaone Morrisonn). They are without two important penalty killers (Boyd Gordon, Quintin Laing). That is almost half of what would be the usual complement of skaters for the Caps.

Ugh…

Go to the polls

Seems there is a "blog-off" underway sponsored by the fine folks over at NHL Arena.

So get out and vote... early and often.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!!

The Turkey Day weekend is winding down, and after gorging ourselves silly on turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce, pumpkin pie, and all the usual suspects lurking on dinner tables at this time of year, we are back to prognosticating on the Capitals, who will be visiting the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh tonight. The Hurricanes have had a tough…

“Is the coast clear?”

Ugh… we must have had too many drumsticks. Now we’re seeing a talking turkey…

“The name is ‘Courage.’”

“Courage?” What sort of name is that for a turkey?

“You should have seen what they named the other one…”

The other one?

“Yeah, that guy who lives in the big white house pardoned two of us this year. The other one was named, ‘Carolina.’”

Really?

“Yeah, must have been named after the hockey team… Hurricanes… five wins, 21 losses… turkey…”

Ah, obviously. So, you were pardoned?

“Yeah, then they wanted to send us to Disneyland and ride in a parade, then send us to something called ‘Santa’s Reindeer Round-Up.’”

So, what’s wrong with that?

“Hey, Einstein… what do you think happens to turkeys after Christmas and the ol’ round up moves on?”

Hmmm… never thought of that.

“Well, Carolina and I… we decided we were bustin’ out of that place faster than you could say, ‘pass the gravy.’”

So where’s Carolina?

“I dunno, man. She went nuts… she went all gobbler on me and took off. Now I’m on the most-wanted list, and not just for my delicious giblets. But it was the dame.”

And now you’ve flown the coop, as it were.

“Funny… yeah, and I need a place to hide out.”

And you’ve picked a hockey arena?

“Hey, these guys are 25th in attendance. Besides, they’re into that whole pork barbecue thing down here. Hiding out here is like being in the witness protection program. No one’s going to find me here.”

The Capitals find themselves in Carolina tonight to end the month of November. In one of the quirks of NHL scheduling, the Caps are in Raleigh to face the Hurricanes for the first time this season in the 27th game on the schedule. In fact, the Caps have played more games against the Western Conference so far (3-1-1 record) than they have against their fellow Southeast Division clubs (4-0-0). So, some catching up is in order. The Hurricanes are 5-16-5 for 15 standings points. That puts them on a pace for a 16-50-16 season (48 points). At that pace, Carolina would…

- Finish with the fewest wins in Hurricanes’ history (previous: 22 in 2002-2003)

- Finish with the fewest standings points in Hurricane’s history (previous: 61 in 2002-2003)

- Finish with the fewest wins in the history of the franchise (previous: 19, twice – in 1982-1983 and 1994-1995, both in Hartford, and the latter was in a shortened 48-game season)

- Finish with the lowest point total for a full season since 1982-1983 (45 points on a 19-54-7 record) and second-worst for a full season in franchise history.

Carolina does not come upon its record by accident, as the numbers indicate…


The Caps come into this game with four players on injured reserve and two more (Morrisonn and Poti) listed as “questionable.” For the Hurricanes, goalie Cam Ward is on IR, and the others range from questionable to indefinite. Health is an issue for both teams.

Health aside, though, Carolina has had a brutal season. Keep in mind, this is a team that reached the conference finals in last year’s playoffs, beating a hall of fame goaltender (New Jersey’s Martin Brodeur) and the top team in the East in the regular season (Boston) to get there. But perhaps that conference final – one in which the Hurricanes were dispatched in four games by a combined score of 20-9 – was a harbinger of things to come...

- Carolina has not won consecutive games in regulation this year, and they have won consecutive games only twice of any sort (a 2-1 Gimmick win over Tampa Bay on October 6th followed by a 7-2 win over Florida on October 9th, then a 6-5 Gimmick win over Toronto on November 19th followed by a 3-1 win over Tampa on November 21st).

- They have one win in regulation time since October 9th.

- The Hurricanes have a 14-game winless streak to their credit this year.

- They are nursing a four-game losing streak at present in which they have been outscored 16-7.

- They have eight losses by at least three goals, only one three-goal win (that October 9th game against Florida).

- They have allowed five or more goals on ten occasions this year (record: 1-9-0); they have allowed two or fewer goals only twice in their last 19 games.

- They have only three games this season in which they have more than one power play goal; they are 6-for-61 (9.8 percent) for November.

- They have five players worse than a minus-10 for the season (that would be five of the worst dozen in the league in that statistic going into Sunday’s play); they have one player with at least 20 games played who is a plus player (Stephane Yelle, plus-1 in 24 games).

- The two goalies left with Cam Ward on the shelf – Michael Leighton and Manny Legace – are a combined 3-7-2, 3.72, .869.

- No Hurricane has more than 15 points (the Caps have six players with more than that total); no Hurricane has more than six goals (five Caps have more than that number).

- They have outscored by a whopping 40-18 in the third period of games this year.

The devil (or Hurricane) you know…

Rod Brind’Amour

Season: 26 games, 2-6-8, -17, 16 PIMS
Last five games: 0-1-1, +1, 4 PIMs
Career vs. Caps: 97 games, 39-42-81, 87 PIMs

Rod Brind’Amour built a long and noteworthy NHL career as a sturdy two-way forward. In 20 NHL seasons coming into this one, he’s averaged almost 70 points per 82 games played. He also has two Selke Trophies on his resume as top NHL defensive forward. But he’s coming to the end. Perhaps it was the torn knee ligament that ended his 2007-2008 season after 59 games; perhaps it is age (he is 39) and wear (he has 1,430 regular season games played, plus another 159 playoff games). But Brind’Amour is a minus-40 in his last 106 games after returning from his injury, and the scoring pace he is on – 6-19-25 – would be his lowest over a full season of his career. He hasn’t had a goal since October 10th (21 games) and has only five assists over that span. His ice time has been cut back, too. Coming out of the lockout, here is how his ice time has progressed…

2005-2006: 24:17 (1st among Hurricane forwards)
2006-2007: 23:19 (1st)
2007-2008: 22:27 (1st)
2008-2009: 18:58 (3rd)
2009-2010: 17:05 (5th)

He does, however, remain one of the top faceoff specialists in the league, but here too, he has slipped. After finishing in the top five in faceoff winning percentage in each of the first four years after the lockout and never finishing with lower than a 58.3 percent winning percentage, he currently ranks 11th with 55.8 percent wins.

The Hurricane you might not know…

Brandon Sutter

Season: 17 games, 6-4-10, -4, 0 PIMs
Last five games: 1-0-1, -3, 0 PIMs
Career vs. Caps: 2 games, 0-0-0, -1, 0 PIMs

A Sutter with no penalty minutes? Considering that his father (Brent) and uncles (Brian, Darryl, Duane, Rich, and Ron) amassed a total of 7,224 penalty minutes in a combined 4,994 NHL games, you’d have to chalk up the younger Sutter’s numbers to the current NHL really being a different game. But the younger Sutter has shown a scoring touch. Since he was recalled from Albany on October 24th, he has six goals in 17 games, which ties him for the team lead in goals scored. He has slowed down a bit, having scored only one goal in his last six contests, part of it due no doubt to a reduction in ice time (averaging about 16 minutes a game over his last five after averaging just under 20 minutes in his previous seven starts).

In goal, you’d have to wonder, does it matter? Neither Michael Leighton nor Manny Legace has given comfort to Hurricane fans that they can keep the nets clean in the absence of Cam Ward, still out after sustaining a lacerated leg in a 3-2 loss at Columbus on November 7th. But there has been a glimmer of hope in the form of Manny Legace. Legace – signed only on November 9th – appeared in six consecutive games for the Hurricanes (2-3-1, 2.82, .907), starting with a relief appearance against Montreal on November 17th, before giving way to Michael Leighton in Carolina’s last game (a 5-1 loss at Buffalo in which the Hurricanes suffered a five-goals-in-barely-twelve-minute third-period meltdown).

Keys:

1. Remember…it’s a rivalry. With apologies to Caps coach Bruce Boudreau and Atlanta’s John Anderson -- pals and rivals though they be -- the Capitals-Hurricanes matchup is as close to a rivalry as there is for the Capitals in the Southeast Division. Since the lockout, Carolina is 17-11-2 against the Capitals, 10-4-1 at home. It might be valuable to recall that two years ago on this date, the Hurricanes also hosted the Caps at home and with the Caps mired at the bottom of the conference standings, Carolina barely held on for a 4-3 win. There are no easy ones.

2. Make the first period the fourth period… of the Buffalo game, that is. Carolina has had a couple of days to stew in that five-goal meltdown at Buffalo. One would expect they will want to rid themselves of that memory with a fast start against the Caps in front of the home folks. If the Caps can get out fast, then it might look a little too much like the end of the Sabres game for comfort for the home team.

3. Stand on their throats. The Hurricanes are an awful third period team. When you are outscored by 40-18 in the third period of games, you deserve that adjective, “awful.” But the Caps have been too tame with clubs, guilty of sloppy play – especially with respect to taking penalties – in the third period of games this year. The Hurricanes don’t seem able to convert the gifts they get in terms of man advantages (6-for-61 in November on the power play), but why tempt fate. Show the killer instinct.

Two years ago, Carolina came into their November 30th game against the Caps with a 13-9-3 record, the Caps at 8-15-2. Carolina won the game, 4-3, but lost the war as the Capitals put on their memorable push to pass Carolina for the divisional crown and a playoff spot. History is not likely to repeat itself in terms of a Carolina resurgence, but there is little reason to give the Hurricane faithful hope.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2

An Institution

Washington is, in the eyes of many, a city of institutions. The great houses that anchor the image of the ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, the great museums, the monuments, the edifices of stone and glass that house the agencies of Government.

But there have been two other great institutions in the recent history of this city that perhaps only locals can appreciate. They could not have been more different than those two great institutions that stand at either end of Pennsylvania Avenue. One – Jack Kent Cooke, was flamboyant almost to a fault. He was the owner of a local sports team who would hold forth on every Sunday looking on from his private box with an aristocratic air as his burgundy and gold charges galvanized a region. In more than a quarter century he ran the club, the Washington Redskins would know their greatest successes and would become the common thread that united an entire community, regardless of color or class. But although Cooke was an outsized character in life; what he left behind has somehow been diminished in his absence. The monument built to his name is not revered by local fans as was the rickety predecessor in which they had their greatest successes. The town he conjured up as its home is no longer called by name. The team he owned has fallen on hard times, at least on the field.

The other local institution is Abe Pollin, a man who seemed no less determined to succeed, both in business and in sport, but one who applied that determination in very different ways. Mr. Pollin passed away yesterday. He did so having built a legacy in his adopted home town that will long outlive him. He was of the community, a part of it, not above it, and it was reflected in his innumerable charitable pursuits and his devotion to the teams he would bring to Washington. Fans of hockey in this region would later complain that the Washington Capitals were the neglected stepchild, relegated to lesser status to that of his beloved Bullets (later the Wizards) basketball team. We can only think such a charge hurt Pollin, given his incredible devotion to his city and its people.

Whether the charge is fair or not is another discussion. But Pollin seemed more a business man rooted in another era, a man who seemed less an anonymous corporate manager but rather a mom-and-pop store owner writ large. Some might see that as a fault. We see it otherwise, for it implies a simple devotion to the local community and to the people who are employed by that firm. He had the resources to devote to bring two professional sports teams to Washington, to allow its residents to swell their chests with pride that first the Bullets, which he brought to Washington from Baltimore, and then the Capitals, which he brought here when the National Hockey League expanded in 1974, were “their team.” It seemed for him, personal as well as “business.” And, unlike those modern professional sports teams who use the towns in which they reside as pawns to leverage ever sweeter deals for new stadiums, Pollin would later build his own arena downtown (after city officials balked at the prospect of doing so) to house his teams.

Pollin’s was not an uninterrupted path of success in managing sports franchises. His teams won little during his tenure, save for an NBA championship, and he could be, even for public consumption appear out of touch and cranky about his teams and his management style. But what he leaves behind is a city that is better for his efforts. While our attention is on the hockey team he brought here and subsequently sold, sports teams are perhaps the least of his legacy. The lives of many Washingtonians have been made better for his efforts, and a section of the city long left neglected has been raised up largely through his work and resources.

The other great institution of recent Washington sports history has passed – one of its great civic institutions. It is an incredible void he leaves in the Washington community that will be long in filling.

Thank you, Abe.