Death of a Narrative

"The Capitals win games by sheer tour de force, overpowering their opponents with offense and, more often than not, hoping their defense and goaltending is just good enough to keep the other team from scoring five goals."

Ladies and Gentlemen, the early leader in the “Strangest Statements Made About a Hockey Team” for 2010. This one is courtesy of Ken Campbell, of “The Hockey News.”

This is merely the latest in a continuing narrative about the Capitals, that they are the 2000’s reincarnation of the 1930’s “Gashouse Gang” of major league baseball. Like those 1930’s St. Louis Cardinals squads, these Caps are little more (so the narrative goes) than a fun-loving, devil-may-care bunch who plays with wild abandon… and no discipline. The only difference seems to be that the Caps have their uniforms laundered regularly (the name “Gashouse Gang” stems from the foul odor of the unwashed uniforms the players preferred that called to mind the plants that manufactured gas for lighting and heating of the period).

Extend the narrative, and the Caps are too undisciplined, too immature, too offense-oriented, insufficiently hard-working to ever realize their dream of a Stanley Cup.

The trouble with narratives such as this is that what often happens is if a thing is spoken often enough and long enough, it takes on the character of truth. What it doesn’t do – and what it doesn’t do in this case – is take on the substance of truth. And here is why…

The Caps are a prodigious, prolific, and precocious offensive team. For that there is no debate. They average 3.90 goals per game through 59 games this year. This might not sound like a lot when you compare it to the offensive powerhouses of the 1980’s, but consider that that 3.90 goals-per game the Caps are on a pace to score is more goals per game than any team since the 1995-1996 Pittsburgh Penguins, which averaged 4.41 goals-per-game in that season. But even here the Caps’ unfolding season might be more impressive. In that 1995-1996 season the Penguins’ output was 10.8 percent higher than that of the second-highest scoring team, the Colorado Avalanche (3.98 goals/game). The Caps 0.60 goals-per-game lead over the San Jose Sharks is an 18.2 percent gap in offensive output.

While impressive, the offensive production of the Caps overshadows what is becoming a very solid season at the other end of the ice.

This morning finds the Caps in 13th place in the NHL in goals-against average (2.70/game). Among the 16 “top-eight” teams of each conference, this is not especially impressive – the Caps rank 11th among those 16 teams, 5th in the Eastern Conference. But it is a figure that is…

-- better than that of the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins (2.90)
-- better than that of the New York Rangers, who employ a three-time Vezina finalist at goaltender (2.71)
-- better than teams such as the Florida Panthers (2.76) or the Minnesota Wild (2.86) that employ more defense-oriented systems.

We are not going to argue that the Caps are the New Jersey Devils, who regularly reside in the low 2’s in goals allowed-per-game. But to hint – or to state outright – that the Caps are either incapable of playing or ignorant to the need for good defense is simply wrong.

In fact, the season cleaves rather nicely at the Thanksgiving point of the season. Up to that point the Caps played 25 games. Here is how their defense looked at that point…

Record: 14-5-6
Goals against/game: 2.84
Penalty killing: 76/97 (78.4%)
Shots against/game: 30.3

Since then the Caps have played 34 games, and here is how those numbers shake out…

Record: 27-7-0
Goals against/game: 2.41
Penalty killing: 112/139 (80.6%)
Shots against/game: 31.7

Shaving almost half a goal a game off your numbers in almost half a season’s worth of games is not a streak, it is not an anomaly. In fact it is rather amazing given that the Caps have done it with their number one goalie (or “co-number one” if you prefer) Semyon Varlamov having played in only three of those 34 games, none of them after December 7th (he had two shutouts in four games before going out with injuries).

But let’s delve further into that statement by Campbell, specifically with respect to this “hope” that “their defense and goaltending is just good enough to keep the other team from scoring five goals.” First, let’s recognize that comment as engaging in just a touch of hyperbole. Five goals is a lot, even for an allegedly defense-challenged team such as the Caps. But four isn’t. In 25 games before Thanksgiving the Caps allowed four or more goals a whopping ten times. By comparison, the Devils allowed that many three times in 22 games before Thanksgiving.

But in 34 games since Thanksgiving, the Caps have allowed four or more goals in a game only six times. You might be interested to know that the Devils have allowed that many or more on nine occasions in 36 games since Thanksgiving.

Let’s flip that around. Before Thanksgiving the Caps allowed two or fewer goals in a game ten times, which frankly is rather respectable (the Devils did it 14 times in 22 games). Since Thanksgiving the Caps have turned the trick 21 times in 34 games (the Devils have done it 16 times in 36 games).

Then there is the discrete…

-- Alex Ovechkin, seen in some quarters as something of a “125-foot” player who is inconsistent at best and a loafer at worst in his own end, has not had consecutive “minus” games this season (in fact has only ten minus games this year and only six in 32 games since Thanksgiving, during which he is plus-30).

-- Mike Green is seen as lackadaisical with the puck at best, a turnover machine at worst. So far this year, though, he has a total of 52 giveaways in 54 games. That would rank him in a tie for tenth for most giveaways by defensemen in the NHL. But it would be fewer than Chris Phillips, fewer than Brian Rafalski. And, if you look at the top-30 (or “bottom-30” if you are so inclined) defensemen in giveaways, Green averages more ice time than 24 of the other 29. His goals-against/on-ice-per-60 minutes is better than the likes of Canadian Olympians Dan Boyle and Scott Niedermayer. Green won’t win the mythical “Langway” Award for top defensive defenseman in the NHL, but neither is he the liability he has been assumed to be.

-- Nicklas Backstrom can’t win faceoffs… or so the story goes. Well, Backstrom is in his third year in the NHL and it bears noting that while he is not yet a David Steckel in the circle, he has improved each year (46.3 percent in his rookie year, 48.7 percent last year, 49.3 percent so far this year). Sidney Crosby improved in this facet of the game in each of his first three seasons, too.

-- Alexander Semin is too inconsistent, too immature a player to be counted upon to deliver in his own end when need be. Well, Semin is also a plus-48 in his last 112 games. Compare that to Alex Ovechkin being +49 in his last 130 games… or Henrik Zetterberg being plus-49 in his last 172 games.

-- Jose Theodore is too inconsistent to win in the spring. Theodore has had consistency issues since his Vezina/Hart Trophy year with Montreal. But, to ask the question one usually asks at this point, what have you done for me lately? Well, if we define “lately” as we did above – that being after Thanksgiving – Theodore is 15-4-0, 2.62, .917. He has allowed more than three goals three times in those 19 appearances (disclosure – two of them have come in his last two appearances). Are those Vezina numbers? Not really, but over a full year it would put him in a neighborhood that includes Tim Thomas (2.52/.915), Marc-Andre Fleury (2.68/.906), Jonas Hiller (2.70/.919), or Cam Ward (2.74, .913).

Then there are the improvements. Jeff Schultz is showing signs of growing into his frame and becoming a solid defensive defenseman. He is a plus-37 in 52 games and has had only seven “minus” games this year (two of those coming in his first four contests). And although it doesn’t bear on this discussion, Schultz is on the brink of setting a career high in points (he has 16 and needs three to set a new mark).

Brian Pothier has already matched the number of games he played in 2007-2008 (38) and has played more than four times the number of regular season games he played in last season (nine). For the Caps, that has been almost like a free agent signing for the second pair. On a per-82 game basis he is on a pace equivalent to his best year in Ottawa regarding his plus/minus numbers. He hasn’t had a minus game since November 14th (20 games) and has had only one since October 17th (31 games).

The Caps are not the New Jersey Devils. They are not built that way, they are not coached that way. They are in fact, as Campbell states, “fun to watch” with their solid-fuel booster offense. But they are not an incompetent defensive team and far from the inept label that seems to persist in attaching itself to any discussion involving the words “Capitals,” “defense,” and “goaltending.” The Caps are not as good as their goals against in this 14-game winning streak (2.36/game). They might be, though, a 2.5-2.6 goals allowed sort of team. If so, that mark would be better than two of the Stanley Cup winners since the lockout (Pittsburgh at 2.84 last year and Carolina at 3.15 in 2006). It would be worse than the 2.18 posted by the champion Red Wings in 2008 or the Cup-winning Anaheim Ducks’ 2.42 in 2007.

Two observations would be fair to make at this point. First, the playoffs are a different animal, and Campbell alludes to this in his critique of the Caps’ defense. The other is that 14 games, or 34 (since Thanksgiving) for that matter, isn’t a full season. But what we are seeing here is not unlike what happened last year to the Penguins. The Penguins were not an especially good defensive team for the first half of the season, but then the light went on over their heads after a coaching change. They didn’t become a great defensive team (2.52 goals against/game after Dan Bylsma took over), but they became good enough, and it carried over into the post-season, where they also were “good enough” – 2.62 goals-against/game.

The Caps have been a better team on their own end of the ice since Thanksgiving, but they might have had their “come to Jesus” moment when Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina were traded to Columbus. Since Alex Ovechkin was named captain, the Caps are 17-1-0 and have allowed 45 goals in the process (2.50/game). Ovechkin seems to have bought into the “responsibility” that goes with the job – he has been on the ice for only seven of the 45 goals scored against the Caps since he donned the “C” and only once has been on the ice for two goals against in a game. The rest of the team seems to have jumped aboard – forwards, defensemen, goaltenders – to play a much better 200-foot game.

And that is a formula for winning a championship.

Thus, we hope, endeth the narrative.

Travel, Schmavel

Dan Steinberg gave voice to Caps fans everywhere in the Post today in discussing NBC's creepy affection for all things Penguin. Of special note was the attention being paid to the travel itinerary of the Penguins, who -- horrors! -- took a chauferred bus to Montreal's airport after Saturday's game, boarded an airplane (we're guessing not on the Indians' charter from "Major League"), then took another chauferred bus ride to Washington, where they slept in a hotel (probably not a Motel 6) before waking up to go to work against the Caps on Sunday.

Dan noted...

I understand that travel woes and visits to road-side Burger Kings make for great copy. And yet the Caps have now tied for the third-longest win streak in NHL history. Only two teams have gone longer. That means their accomplishment has to be more rare than a bad travel tale in a league that plays games in Edmonton and Calgary. The Penguins can't possibly be only the third or fourth team to have to eat fast food while on a late-night bus ride the night before a game.

And yet the Penguins' travel woes made up a larger portions of the telecast than the Caps streak. There certainly was no context given to Sunday's comeback, no sense of how many other times the Caps had rallied with a flurry of offense throughout their month-long run, no discussion of whether they could seriously challenge the all-time record of 17.

There was a graphic showing where the Pens had traveled and how long it took, but none that I remember charting the progression of this win streak.

Well, let's take a look back at what has happened so far with the Caps, knowing full well that this journey is not yet complete...

January 12 -- The Caps lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 7-4, in what was perhaps the most unexpected loss of the season, the Caps having defeated the Lightning 12 straight times dating back to November 2007. The Caps then headed out to Miami to face the Panthers. Distance traveled to Miami: 204 miles (all distances "as the crow flies").

January 13 -- The second half of a back-to-back set on the road, the Caps came back from a 4-1 deficit to force overtime and win when Tomas Fleischmann scored in a Gimmick. From there, it was off to the airport to head home. Distance traveled to Washington: 928 miles.

January 15 - 19 -- A three-game home stand against the Maple Leafs, the Flyers, and the Red Wings. The Caps unleash some offense in putting up six on the Leafs (a 6-1- win) and five on the Flyers (a 5-3 win) before taking on the Red Wings in what would be a hard-fought affair. The Caps came back from a 2-1 third period deficit to win, 3-2. Then, it's on to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins in the teams' first meeting of the year. Distance traveled to Pittsburgh: 189 miles.

January 21 -- The Caps spotted the Penguins the first goal, gave up the lead, then tied things up at three apiece as the teams went to the locker rooms at the second intermission. The Caps put up three in the last 20 minutes to win, going away, 6-3. Then, they went away, boarding a flight back to DC. Distance traveled to Washington: 189 miles.

January 23 -- The Phoenix Coyotes paid a visit, a dangerous opponent in that: a) the Caps don't see them much, and b) they were having a surprisingly good season. The Caps built a lead off two goals in the second period to give the home team a 3-1 lead at the second intermission. Phoenix made it interesting with a goal early in the third, but Michal Neuvirth slammed the door after that (he had saves on two shorthanded breakaways in the game), and Alex Ovechkin scored an empty netter for the 4-2 final. Then it was off to play the Islanders. Distance Traveled to Uniondale, NY: 221 miles.

January 26 -- The Caps made quick work of the Islanders, scoring four in the first period on their way to a 7-2 win. There was trouble looming though, as Jose Theodore was injured in the game and gave way to Michal Neuvirth for the final 20 minutes. But it was back to DC for the boys. Distance traveled to Washington: 221 miles.

January 27 - 31 -- Another three-game home stand, this time against Anaheim, Florida, and Tampa Bay. Defense was the name of the game in this trio of games, the Caps hold the three opponents to a total of four goals while getting 12 of their own. Neuvirth was especially sharp, saving 65 of 67 shots in the first two games. Theodore got the call in the third game - a tough 3-2 win over Tampa Bay - and got the win as the Caps tied a franchise record for consecutive wins. Then it was off to Boston. Distance traveled to Boston: 393 miles.

February 2 -- It was sort of like Groundhog Day. Wake up, hold another opponent to fewer than three goals. This time, Jose Theodore did the trick, allowing only an early first period goal to the Bruins in a 4-1 win. It was the seventh time in nine games the Caps allowed two or fewer goals. Then it was a date in the Big Apple. Distance traveled to New York City: 187 miles.

February 4 -- It sure looked grim here, and in an unexpected way. The Rangers - a team having immense trouble scoring goals, took a 2-1 lead after one period. Then after allowing the Caps to take the lead with two goals early in the second, came back with three of their own to take a 5-3 lead. But Alex Ovechkin scored with nine seconds left in the second period on a sick move through Michal Roszival to get the deficit to one at the break. Tom Poti scored on a power play less than a minute into the third, then Nicklas Backstrom potted the game-winner a little over five minutes later. The Caps held the Rangers to six shots in the third period, and Jose Theodore saved them all for the 6-5 win, earning the Caps a trip back home. Distance traveled to Washington: 206 miles.

February 5 - 7 -- A two-game home stand, one against the struggling Atlanta Thrashers, who traded star winger Ilya Kovalchuk to the Devils, and one against the arch-rival Penguins in a rematch of the 6-3 Caps win in Pittsburgh. The Caps disposed of the Thrashers in a 5-2 game that was a bit closer than the game indicated, which set the stage for the Penguins and their trek from Montreal to DC to play a game on Sunday afternoon in snow-bound Washington. The Pens started fast, but the Caps closed faster, coming from 4-1 down to win 5-4 in overtime. The game, featuring a pair of early goals from Sidney Crosby and a hat trick from Alex Ovechkin (one goal shattering the case cover of the goal camera), has already been dubbed by some as the "game of the year."

Total Games: 14
Total wins: 14
Total score: 68-33
Power play: 17/55 (30.9%)
Penalty killing: 53/65 (81.5%)

Total distance traveled: 2,738 miles

True, 2,738 miles is a heavy week's worth for some teams in the Western Conference, but travel is a part of the game, whether it's hockey moms and dads ferrying kids a couple hundred miles to a pee-wee tournament, teenagers riding buses across prairies in juniors, prospects and guys at the end of their careers looking out bus windows in the AHL, or even hopping the occasional bus in the NHL.

14-game winning streaks are somewhat less common.

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 5 - Penguins 4 (OT)

Well, if that’s the last home game for the Caps until March, fans will have a ton of memories to re-live in the meantime.

The Caps spotted the Pittsburgh Penguins a 4-1 lead, then came back like, well, rampaging beasts to claim a 5-4 overtime win and their 14th consecutive win that ties them with the 1929-1930 Boston Bruins for the third longest such streak in NHL history.

There was something for everyone in this one – goals by the stars, goals by the grinders…iffy goaltending, clutch goaltending… big hits, big scrums…

But it all came down to an errant stick, that being the one held by Penguin defenseman Brooks Orpik, who used it to pop Alexander Semin in the chops 2:26 into overtime and earn a seat in the penalty box. With the Caps skating on a 4-on-3 advantage, Mike Green slid the puck over to Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer that worked through goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to hit the far post. With Fleury unable to locate and smother the puck, Mike Knuble pounced, backhanding the puck back through Fleury’s legs and into the net for the win that sent the hearty, blizzard-weary crowd into a frenzy.

Before that, though, the matchup between Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby didn’t let the folks at NBC, or in the arena for that matter, down. Crosby scored a pair of goals three minutes apart in the first period to stake the Penguins to a 2-0 lead (the fourth straight game the Caps have allowed the game’s first goal), but then Ovechkin put the Caps on his shoulders and brought them back, halving the lead midway through the second period, then scoring a pair just over four minutes apart in the third to record his – and the Caps’ – first hat trick of the season.

But those two weren’t the whole story, wither. Jordan Staal netted a pair of goals 1:24 apart in the second period that seemed to put the game out of reach of the Caps at 4-1. Eric Fehr bull-rushed his way to a goal, flipping a backhand shot at Fleury, then following his own shot to pot the rebound that Fleury allowed.

And despite the snow that blanketed the region (we didn’t make it to this game, barely getting our driveway cleared in time for the noon faceoff), it seemed like a playoff-volume crowd at Verizon Center. You really couldn’t have asked for a more entertaining game (well, maybe you could if you were a Penguin fan).

Other stuff…

-- Mike Knuble didn’t get a star, but he should have gotten something (if only a lick of the face from Kanoobie). In addition to the game-winning goal, itself a product of sticking with the play, it was his following up in the faceoff circle on a faceoff between Nicklas Backstrom and Sidney Crosby, getting to the puck and moving it to Ovechkin for the game-tying hat trick goal.

-- The Caps once more displayed a finishing kick, outscoring the Penguins 2-0 in the third and 1-0 in overtime. In the streak the Caps have outscored the opposition 30-6 in the third period, 23-14 in the second. They have scored in each and every one of the 14 second and third periods.

-- The Caps have outscored the Penguins 5-0 in the third period in two games this season, not including the overtime winner today.

-- Think this was a game that players took seriously? Mike Knuble had his first fight since squaring off with Mike Fisher in November 2002. Kanoobie was really howling over Knuble getting the GHHT (Gordie Howe hat Trick)..

-- Think this was a game that players took seriously, II? 15 skaters for the Caps were credited with hits. Brian Pothier had four (including one particularly picturesque one on Brooks Orpik in the second period), Jeff Schultz had three.

-- It was an amazingly clean game from a turnover standpoint. Combined the teams had only a total of 21 turnovers while registering 152 combined shot attempts. Neither Crosby nor Ovechkin had a giveaway.

-- OK, I realize that this being an NBC national game, Crosby had to get the second star, but on my scoresheet it was Jordan Staal. Despite being the sort of player who draws a considerable amount of defensive responsibility, he was on the ice for only one Caps goal (while getting two of his own). His misfortune was that the goal he was on the ice for happened to be the last one.

-- Lost in all this is a “game within a game” item. One of the reasons the Penguins were able to pound shots at the Caps so effectively in last spring’s playoff was that they abused Mike Green mercilessly in the Caps end. Green had no giveaways in more than 27 minutes of ice time.

-- Five Caps defensemen had 16 of the total of 22 blocked shots (Shaone Morrisonn was the only defenseman not to have one).

-- I’m guessing Bill Guerin was complimenting Alexander Semin for having mastered the “Crosby head snap” for which he drew the high-sticking call from Orpik in the overtime. That a Penguin – any Penguin – could complain about that, having spent several years watching the master of the “head snapping back” move, is rather bizarre. They should recognize art when they see it, and besides, imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.

-- “Tyler Kennedy would obliterate Nicklas Backstrom.” He’s “a little ball of hate.” Maybe, Pierre, but it seemed Backstrom acquitted himself pretty well. Yes, by holding on for dear life. But truth be told, Backstrom has a little bit of the Forsberg in him, too, when it comes to nastiness.

-- Here is an indicator of the kind of pressure that the Caps’ skill at forward provides for an opponent – of the five minors taken by the Penguins, four were taken by defensemen.

-- Alex Ovechkin had six shots on goal in 25:36. Ok, he does that. Mike Green had five shots in 27 minutes and change. OK, that’s not unheard of. Alexander Semin, five shots in 19 minutes. He’s had games like that. But Eric Fehr, five shots in 11:59? He must have been channeling the days when he was at Hershey playing the Baby Pens.

-- Speaking of which, Hershey also came back from a three-goal deficit, also against the Penguins (The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton version), and also had a hat trick (Mathieu Perreault). Hershey is 39-9-2 for the season. Caps are 41-12-6. 80 wins combined for the teams and it’s barely February?

-- Did Jose Theodore have his best game? No. But he did stop the last 17 shots he saw to give the Caps a chance to claw back into it.

-- At the other end, Marc-Andre Fleury started well – he stopped the first 16 shots he saw. But he wilted rather badly in the second half of the game, allowing five goals on the last 18 shots he faced.

-- One thing that has characterized the streak so far is the balance the Caps have enjoyed from the top three forward lines. Not today. This was a day for the top line. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Knuble went a combined 4-4-8, including the game-tying and game-winning goals.

-- (edit: we thought we'd better delete the link in this item in that many are reporting being infected with viruses as a result of accessing it). Apparently, one of the NBC telent wasn't in a happy mood after the game, either.

-- Oh, Doc Emrick... if you're going to plug the restaurant a team stops at in the middle of a snowy night for some food, it's probably better for marketing if the team actually wins the game.

OK, be honest. When it was 4-1, you were thinking, “maybe that ESPN Super Bowl pregame show won’t be too bad after all.” But the Caps have owned third periods in this streak – they’ve been outscored in a third period only once in the previous 13 games. And today, they did it again. And it couldn’t be a better way to end the home portion of the pre-Olympic part of the season. The Caps take to the road now with games in Montreal, Ottawa, and St. Louis before splitting up to join their respective national teams or getting a well-earned break. For Caps fans it was a welcome respite from a hard weekend of work dealing with Mother Nature’s haymaker of a punch. And for that, boys, thanks.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, February 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are coming to you live from Peerless Central, otherwise known as McMurdo Station. Well, not really, but it sure seems that way. Here in Loudoun County, Virginia, we have 29 inches of snow, and in Washington we are hoping that there will be a hockey game played against the Pittsburgh Penguins. NBC, the NoBody Cares network, really wants this game played, and so the Penguins are having to make the trek from Montreal, where they played – and lost – a game to the Canadiens yesterday afternoon, to Washington for a noon start today.

The Penguins’ trek apparently included a plane ride to Newark, and then a bus ride to Washington. Well, The Peerless has an exclusive from the bus driver, himself… meet Clark Griswold.

“It’s a pleasure.”

Now Clark, you had a bunch of guys on a bus fresh off a hard loss, having just taken a plane ride to Newark, of all places, then having to get on a bus for a God-knows how long of a ride to DC. How in heaven’s name do you handle a crowd like that?

“Well, I just tell ‘em, ‘hey, hey, easy kids. Everybody on the bus. Boat leaves in two minutes... or perhaps you don't want to see the second largest ball of twine on the face of the earth, which is only four short hours away?’”

You stopped to see a ball of twine?

“No, but hey, they’re from Pittsburgh – not the sharpest knives in the drawer, if you catch my drift.”

Did you have any problems along the way?

“Well, we did get pulled over by a Jersey trooper.”

Speeding?

"No… we had a problem at a rest stop. When the trooper pulled me over, he came up to the window. I said, ‘Hi officer, what's the problem?’ He said, ‘ Get out of the bus!’ He was pissed. When I asked if I was speeding, he cut me off – ‘Shut your mouth, sir!,’ he said. Then he went on -- 'You know, if I weren't in uniform, I'd split your skull with the butt of this revolver faster than you can say, 'police brutality!’ Then he pointed to the back of the bus. ‘Explain this, you son-of-a-bitch!’ he said.”

Oh my God...

“That’s what I said.”

What was it?

“Seems Guerin wouldn’t quit yappin’ about getting an instigator, a fighting, and a game for his kerfuffle with Ryan White, and the guys wanted to get some sleep on the bus ride, so they tied him up on the bumper, and… well, you know.”

Oh my God!

“Oh, he’s okay. Just nicked up a little, but hey… he’s a hockey player. They’re used to that.”

So, it took you quite a while to get here. Did it seem like you’d never find DC?

“For a while it was dicey, and the boys were getting antsy to find a place to get some sleep. But then I told them, ‘I think you're all f*cked in the head. We're ten hours from the f*cking arena, and you want to bail out. Well I'll tell you something. This is no longer a bus ride. It's a quest. It's a quest for fun. I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun. We're all gonna have so much f*cking fun we'll need plastic surgery to remove our goddam smiles. You'll be whistling 'Zip-A-Dee Doo-Dah' out of you're assholes! I gotta be crazy! I'm on a pilgrimage to see a hockey game. Praise hockey! Holy Sh*t!”

One for the books, I’d say.

And that might be what we’re seeing here – the “Great Hockey Game of Twenty-Ten.” The sort of game fans will tell their grandchildren about – “why, when I was your age, I shoveled 18-foot snow drifts out of my 500-foot driveway just so I could see Alex Ovechkin kick Sidney Crosby’s ass all the way back to Pittsburgh.” That sort of thing.

But as for the ass-kickin’, we’ll just have to wait and see about that. The Pens and the Caps are two very skilled teams, two very accomplished teams, but not two equally effective teams this season, as the overall numbers indicate…


Pittsburgh has, however, had some success after taking one in the chops back on January 21st, a 6-3 Caps win. Since then, the Pens are 4-2-0. But even here, they’ve been all over the place. They have a pair of 2-1 wins (one in a Gimmick), and they have a couple of wins where they’ve had some offense (4-2 over the Rangers, 5-4 over Buffalo). Then there are the stinkers – a 4-1 loss to Ottawa (ok, they were in the midst of a winning streak) and a 5-3 loss to Montreal.

The fact is, the Pens are a strange team. No team has been involved in more three-or-more goal games this season. Perhaps fittingly, they’ve split 26 of those games (13-13). Perhaps ominously, they are 2-5 in such games since the start of the year.

None of them, though, have come in the six games since the last time these teams met. The Pens have been outscored by the opposition 17-16 in that span. Here, again, there is the good and the bad for the Penguins. On the good side, they are getting points from the guys who have to get them. Sidney Crosby is 4-4-8, Evgeni Malkin is 2-6-8, and Sergei Gonchar is 1-4-5. But after that, the Penguins have as many as two goals from only two other players, one of whom is back at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (Chris Conner, Pascal Dupuis is the other).

Good and bad, again – the power play, a problem all year for the Penguins, is 4-for-19 over the last six games (21.1 percent). But it is 2-for-13 in the last five (15.4 percent).

Of particular concern for the Penguins might be goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is not having a very good 2010 so far. Since the start of the new year he is 6-5-0, 3.04, .908. Five times in 12 appearances he has allowed at least four goals, and he has been pulled twice, including yesterday in Montreal (perhaps to give him a head start in getting ready for this game, seeing as how the score was 4-2 for Montreal when he was relieved).

If Crosby, Maklin, and Gonchar are getting things done lately, and the Penguins still have only 16 goals in six games, then you might think there are problems down the roster. Well, one problem is that Chris Kunitz – who spends a lot of time on Crosby’s left wing – has been out since January 3rd, recouperating from abdominal surgery. He could return against the Caps today.

The guy on Crosby’s right – Bill Guerin – is 5-3-8 in 16 games since the start of the year, but he has only a goal (no assists) in the six games since the Pens met the Caps. Ruslan Fedotenko hasn’t scored a goal since netting the game-winner in a 5-2 win over Atlanta on January 5th. He has a couple of assists since the January 21st meeting with Washington, but he’s a minus-4 in those six games, too. Pascal Dupuis is 4-6-10 in 16 games since the start of the year and is 2-2-4 in the last six (plus-6 in that span). He’s playing respectably, which is a compliment as far as the secondary scoring for the Pens is concerned at the moment.

The problem often cited with respect to the Penguins is a lack of punch on the wing. Bill Guerin is the only winger with more than 15 goals (the Caps have four wingers with more than 15), so this argument has some merit. But what the Penguins do get is contributions from the defense. Six defensemen have at least ten points (that would be all of them who have played in at least 40 games). As a group, they do not have outsized goal totals (combined the Penguin defense has 24 goals), but they do contribute helpers – four blueliners have more than 15 assists (the Caps have two – Mike Green and Tom Poti).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Jordan Staal

Staal is probably the best third-line center in the game. And at not yet 22 years of age, he is the youngest player ever to appear in 300 NHL games. He has struggled some with scoring lately (1-1-2 in his last eight games), but the key here is his defense. He’s going to have to play hard and well against the Caps big guns for the Penguins to improve their chances of winning. In 13 career games against the Caps he is 1-3-4, minus-3. However, he is 0-0-0, minus-5 in his last five games against Washington.

Washington: Mike Green

He was our player to ponder the last time these teams met, then he didn’t play. But the same argument applies, so we’ll just restate it…

Green has never scored a goal against the Penguins, regular season or playoffs. But that’s not why he is a player to ponder here. In last year’s playoff series against the Penguins, Green was harassed constantly by Penguin forwards on the forecheck. It played a role in the Penguins’ ability to hammer the Caps with shots on goal. He should expect to suffer similar abuse tonight to the extent the Penguins can apply it. If he handles it well, the ice gets tilted more in the Caps’ favor, and the Caps are the superior offensive team.

Keys:

1. Fast out of the gate, Part 1. It’s one thing to fall behind a goal against Boston, the Rangers, or Atlanta (as the Caps have done the last three games). Those teams are not especially gifted offensively. This is a move up in weight class. The Penguins, despite their troubles lately, have to be taken seriously as an offensively gifted team every time out. Falling behind could have, excuse the pun, a “snowball” effect.

2. Fast out of the gate, Part 2. OK, you’re facing a team that played yesterday and had to endure what had to be an uncomfortable bus ride that gets them to the next city sometime early the following morning. Think pressing them early might be a good idea to take their legs away?

3. Set the alarm clock. In three day games this year, the Young Guns are a combined 5-6-11 (Mike Green missed one of them). They are the guys who need to step up in this one for that "fast out of the gate" thing.

In the end, you’d have to think the Caps have a considerable advantage here. A full day off between games, sleeping in their own beds, playing in their own arena – against a team that played yesterday, had a difficult travel itinerary, and will get some sleep at a hotel. But the Penguins aren’t champs for nothing. They can handle adversity, and they – like 13 teams before them – will be motivated. Still, the Caps are coming in hot, and the Penguins are coming in… not.

Caps 5 – Penguins 3

The Day After Tomorrow

Here in Loudoun County, Virginia...

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Thrashers 2

OK, so… the Caps score an own goal on their own power play… their top center misses the last 20 minutes with “flu-like” symptoms… they started a rookie goalie who was just called up from Hershey (again)… their biggest hitter was credited with no hits… they were outshot 45-32…

And they still won, 5-2.

The Caps climbed into a tie for fourth for the longest winning streaks in NHL history with their 13th consecutive win, this one over the Atlanta Thrashers. It was another case of another team starting with spit and vinegar, then wilting when the Caps finally got their rhythm.

No, we don’t see that as a lasting formula for winning, but it’s working now, and you really can’t argue with success. The Caps fell behind, again (the third straight game they allowed the game’s first goal), but roared back after suffering that insult with four goals of their own.

Again, as it has been so often in this streak, it was a case of balance. Ten skaters registered points on the five goals, and the points were spread rather evenly among the lines…

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble: 2-3-5, +4
Semin-Fleischmann-Laich: 1-1-2, +1
Chimera-Morrison-Fehr: 1-0-1, -3
Gordon-Steckel-Bradley: 0-2-2, +3

But while the Caps were having fun at the offensive end of the ice, Michal Neuvirth was spending 60 minutes saying, “uh, you got another goalie prospect here…” Neuvirth saved 44 of 45 shots off Thrasher sticks, the odd goal being scored after he made a save of Rich Peverley, who was in on a breakaway, but watched helplessly as Alexander Semin (charging hard to try to make up for having his attempted cross-ice pass at the other end stripped off his stick by Peverley to create the breakaway) kicked the puck back into his own net. Otherwise, Neuvirth was sublime.

Other stuff…

- Break stick, go to bench, pick up another, skate back, score goal. It really isn’t that easy, is it?

-- Alex Ovechkin has now been captain for 17 games. The Caps are 16-1-0 over that span of games. Rather impressive. But Ovechkin’s numbers look positively “1980’s” in those 17 games. His “per-82 games” pace looks like this… 63-92-155, +96. That’s right, plus-96. In those 17 games, the Caps have allowed 41 goals. Number of goals Ovechkin has been on the ice for?... six.

-- With two minutes to go in what would be the Caps 13th straight win, they had scored 61 goals during the streak. Mike Green finally got his first during this streak with an empty netter for the fifth goal and 62nd in this streak.

-- So, another clean hit followed up by a guy stepping in as “The Equalizer.” This is really getting old. Nice to see John Erskine dispose of that nonsense with a straight left that caught Chris Thorburn flush on the cheek. Robert McCall, he ain’t.

-- When was the last time David Steckel was held to 30 percent on draws? October 24th – 48 games ago. In fact, the only Caps who won more than he lost (those taking more than one faceoff) was they guy who missed the last period – Nicklas Backstrom.

-- Jason Chimera’s bomb from down the left side had a lot of “8” in it. He just overpowered Ondrej Pavelec with the shot.

-- And isn’t Chimera looking like a fine pickup… 19 games, 4-6-10, plus-5, and he’s been a sturdy presence.

-- And there was the continuing refrain of the Caps wearing down goalies. Tonight’s victim, Ondrej Pavelec, allowed one goal on the first 15 shots he faced, then one in seven, then allowed goals on consecutive shots 1:08 apart early in the third.

-- As for those goals 1:08 apart, that looks like the 13th time in the last 12 games that the Caps have scored goals less than three minutes apart.

-- Yes, the Thrashers outshot the Caps 45-32, but the attempts were another story. The Caps had 73 to Atlanta’s 67. Early on, the Thrashers held a puck-possession and territorial advantage, but that evaporated as the game wore on.

-- As for the other young guns among the forwards and their 82-game paces since the change in captain, Nicklas Backstrom is now on a 48-72-120, +77 pace, and Alexander Semin is on a 58-68-126, +58 pace. Shoot, Tomas Fleischmann is on a point-a-game pace (14-68-82 per-82 game pace over the last 17 games).

-- Watching Semyon Varlamov is the Fourth of July, with roman candles and sparklers. Watching Michal Neuvirth is sitting under the tree at a picnic sipping on iced tea. Both enjoyable, both capable of making you happy.

It was a good win, a solid win. It wasn’t without hiccups, but for the second game in a back-to-back with all the distractions of weather and the news surrounding the opponent, it was a fine night for the men in red. It’s hockey weather this weekend in the DC region, and when Sunday rolls around, we would expect that the Caps will be ready for some hockey and some roast Penguin for Sunday dinner. Tonight, though, was a warm cup of hot cocoa on a snowy night.

Ok, you....you dirty dozen

I don't know who did this, but they get a doff of the prognostitorial chapeau for their inspired art work (click the image for a larger version)...

Friday... The 13th?

Horror for opponents...

...Joy for Caps fans.




(photos: AP, Getty Images)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, February 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Here we are, coming to you live from McMurdo Station…uh, Washington, DC, where the Caps will host the Atlanta Thrashers… the Ilya Kovalchuk-less Atlanta Thrashers. The Thrashers parted ways with the elite left wing last night, sending Kovalchuk to the New Jersey Devils for a quartet of assets whose names are likely to be lost to history before too long. For the record, the price that Atlanta extracted from the Devils for perhaps the second most electrifying player in the game (plus Anssi Salmela) is:

John Oduya, a competent defenseman

Niclas Bergfors, a former first-round draft pick who started the year rather well (5-9-14 in his first 18 games), but who does not have a goal in 2010 and has only one assist in 16 games.

Patrice Cormier, currently serving a season-ending suspension for flinging an elbow at the head of Mikael Tam in a QMJHL game.

A first round draft pick, which would seem to be no better than perhaps 25th in the entry draft, given where the Devils are likely to finish in the standings.

Needless to say, the cousins have opinions on the matter. Fearless, what’s your take?

“Not an impact player in the bunch. Yes, they got a couple of guys who might – and the operative word there is ‘might’ – be top-six forwards in a few years in Bergfors and Cormier, but they couldn’t pry Mattias Tedenby or Jacob Josefsen from the Devils, who might have better upsides.”

Cheerless?

“AH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…”

Uh, OK then…Fearless, what does this tell Atlanta fans?

“That Don Waddell isn’t much of a horse trader…”

Cheerless, would you agree?

“AH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…”

Uh, yeah… What about Oduya?

“He’s not a bad defenseman, but he’s probably a third pair even on that team, behind Enstrom, Kubina, Bogosian, and Hainsey. If Kubina is moved, he moves up the depth chart.”

Cheerless, what do you think of getting the first rounder?

“AH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….”

“I think cuz is going to pop a blood vessel…”

“hoo-hoo…I was just readin’ the Thrasher message boards… they thought they were getting Zubrus or Ralston. And those folks are geniuses compared to the ‘experts.’ One of those ESPN guys had Kovalchuk going for Travis Zajac, Dainius Zubrus, and Andy Greene. Yeah… that works.”

Not a good day for the pundits…

“And that goober who names himself after a former Flyer?...He had the Thrashers wanting two of Hartnell, van Riemsdyk, and Giroux from Philadelphia… geez, why not ask for a lifetime supply of cheese steaks, too? "

Yeah… Eklund… often, well… always wrong, but never in doubt. But that leaves the Thrashers gasping for offense as they take the Verizon Center ice – we think – for tonight’s sled dog race…uh, hockey game at Verizon Center.

The Thrashers were already something of an offense-challenged team, given that Kovalchuk had 31 goals (of the 162 the Thrashers have) and that Atlanta had only 41 goals in 16 games since the start of the new year (2.56/game). The overall numbers look like this…

The top scorer for Atlanta is now Maxim Afinogenov. Ironic, isn’t it, that a player that was given up for dead, unwanted by a lot of teams in the off-season has found his scoring touch and will be the Thrashers’ big offensive weapon heading into this game. The difficulty, though, is that since putting up a 2-2-4 effort against the Islanders on January 2nd, he is 2-3-5 in his last 14 games.

With Kovalchuk’s departure, Rich Peverley now takes over the top spot in goal scoring, tied with Afinogenov (17). He has had a decent start to the new year with five goals in his last 15 games. He doesn’t have a goal against the Caps this year and is a minus-4 in three games (he does have three assists).

Nik Antropov looks to have been a pretty good off-season signing by the Thrashers. He is third on the club in goals (13), tied for second in points (42), and has the best plus-minus on the club by a wide margin (plus-17). He has had only two minus games in his last 18 contests. He has 20 points in 27 career games against the Caps (7-13-20), including three assists in two games this year.

The Thrashers get a significant amount of scoring out of their blueliners – four of them are in double-digit points. But they also have a couple of defensemen who are on the far side of minus-10 (Ron Hainsey and Zach Bogosian). For Hainsey, he has a grand total of only three points in 2010 (all assists), and he has been a plus player in only four times in 16 games. Bogosian is 1-3-4 in 2010 (but without a point in his last six games) and has been a plus player only three times in 16 games. Oduya might be expected to shore up the defensive end of the ice, but with only four points this year (2-2-4) the Thrashers are not going to be getting a lot of offensive production there (whether he plays in this game is iffy, given travel and that sort of thing).

In goal Atlanta has a difficult mix to sort out. Johan Hedberg is 36 years old and provides stability and, occasionally, some fine efforts. He recently had a three game run in which he allowed only a single goal in each game. But that is sandwiched by a four game streak to start the year in which he allowed 14 goals (1-1-2, .857 SV) and his last two appearances, in which he allowed three and four goals (61 saves on 68 shots -- .897 SV) in splitting two decisions.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ondrej Pavelec is only 22 years old, and he’s had the struggles 22-year old goaltenders often have. He is 3-3-1 in eight appearances since January 1st (3.16, .902), and he has lost his last two decisions, a 5-2 loss to Carolina on January 21st and a 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay last Tuesday. You would have to think Hedberg would get the call in this one, if only because Pavelec is 0-1-1, 5.73, .836 in two appearances against the Caps this season. Hedberg isn’t a lot better – 0-1-0, 4.73, .826.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Atlanta: Evander Kane

With Kovalchuk gone, Kane might now get to jump start his development a little more. He is now the “franchise player” in waiting. A lot to ask of a youngster who is still only 18. Kane has 11 goals in this, his rookie season, but he has only three in his last 32 games, one since New Year’s Day. He has yet to register a point against the Caps (0-0-0 in three games).

Washington: Braden Holtby

Does the kid get his NHL debut? If so, one could do worse than have it come against the Thrashers, who might be expected to still be sorting out the Kovalchuk deal and that all of a sudden has become a very offense-challenged team. You would have to say Holtby has exceeded expectations so far this year. He started in South Carolina and is 7-2-3, 2.95, .911 with the Stingrays. He has spent a lot of time in Hershey, where his numbers are even better – 16-2-1, 2.04, .928. If he gets the nod and manages a win, you would have to say his season went from “exceeding expectations” to perhaps “meteoric.”

(edit: Michal Neuvirth was called up, so that meteor apparently doesn't get to flash across the sky tonight).

Keys:

1. Focus, focus, focus. This will be an odd game. The Thrashers are playing their first game without Ilya Kovalchuk in their organization, the Caps are coming home after a hard-fought, come-from-behind win, and there is the weather that could play havoc with team travel and keep the crowd down. Being able to maintain focus will be a chore.

2. Play Fehr. Eric Fehr has five goals in 12 career games against the Thrashers, including one in two games this season. He has five goals in 16 games since the start of the new year. It doesn’t sound like a lot until you see that he is stuck around 12 minutes of playing time a night. Fehr does not have a goal in his last six games.

3. All for one and one for all. If Holtby gets the start, giving the kid a helping hand – playing responsibly and not leaving him out to dry, not taking bad penalties – will be important to getting the kid off on the right foot.

In the end, the Caps are rolling, while the Thrashers are spinning their wheels (6-6-4 since the start of the year). The Caps could get caught looking ahead to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they’ve been good at tending to the business at hand during this streak, even if their level of play seems to have slipped a notch in the last three games. Still, the Caps should keep the fun run going…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3

A TWO-point night: Caps 6 - Rangers 5

Dirty Dozen, indeed.

It wasn’t what you might consider a close-fought game, although there was a fair amount of smackin’ around (61 hits combined). It wasn’t quite a track meet, but it was quite an exhibition of power play production (7-for-15 combined). What it was in the end was the Caps’ 12th straight win – a 6-5 victory over the New York Rangers. There were several stories tonight…

Alex Ovechkin recorded his 500th point on what is likely among the top-five highlight reel goals he has in his career. With the clock winding down in the second period and the Caps down by two, he carried the puck down the left side, then cut hard around defenseman Michal Roszival in the left wing faceoff circle as Roszival was desperately looking around at his skates to see where the puck went. Ovechkin couldn’t get both hands free to the shaft of his stick, so with his left hand he pushed the blade of his stick up and under the puck, lifting it over goalie Henrik Lundqvist’s left pad. The puck crawled all the way over Lundqvist and plopped down just inside the far post with nine seconds left in the period to give the Caps life going into the third period. Ovechkin finished the night 2-1-3 to take the NHL lead in goals (38) and points (80) to go with his league lead in plus-minus (plus-37).

Nicklas Backstrom had a monster game, finishing 1-4-5 for the third time in his career. And, he was clutch – he had points on each of the last three Caps goals, getting the game-winner himself in the sixth minute of the third period. His four assists – all primary assists – were provided to three different goal scorers (Mike Knuble, Tom Poti, and Ovechkin twice). Backstrom is now 9-14-23, plus-15 in his last 15 games.

Jose Theodore took a haymaker to his statistics, allowing five goals on 38 shots. But he was good when he had to be, spectacular late. His stop of a Marian Gaborik put-back with 13 seconds left preserved the slim one-goal lead and the streak. To the extent he was fishing pucks out of the back of the net earlier in the game, it was largely a product of the Rangers throwing everything but Stan Fischler’s typewriter at the front of the net on the power play and creating screens (the Rangers finished 4-for-6 on the power play).

Other stuff…

-- Color Kanoobie happy. Mike Knuble recorded his 13th goal in his last 15 games (seventh in his last five).

-- Tomas Fleischmann had a pretty quiet two-point night. But those assists were on the game-tying and game-winning goals.

-- 12 times in the last 11 games, the Caps have scored goals less than three minutes apart. They did it twice tonight (4:41 and 7:16 of the second period, 19:51 of the second and 59 seconds of the third period)

-- Boyd Gordon won eight of nine draws. That’s not surprising. He got a goal (his third in 23 games this year). That was something of a surprise.

-- Olli Jokinen… a goal, an assist, seven shots, three hits, and he won eight of 12 draws. He also took three minor penalties, two of which the Caps scored on.

-- Chris Drury is going to be one huge welt tonight. He blocked four shots, but two of them ripped chunks of flesh out of his hide, thanks to Ovechkin slappers.

-- Wade Redden was once an all-star caliber defenseman. Tonight he was getting Matt Gilroy minutes. What happened to Redden is one of hockey’s great mysteries.

-- If someone had said when Tom Poti was signed to the Caps that he would be the best all-around defenseman on the club before his tour was up, who would have taken that claim seriously? He’s making a case, certainly in the absence of Mike Green… he’s had one minus game since Christmas (plus-18 in 18 games), has three goals over that span (including one tonight) and 13 points. He has 14 straight games with more than 20 minutes of ice time, and tonight’s 26:36 was his second highest in a regulation game this year.

-- Was Henrik Lundqvist gassed at the end? He allowed one goal on the first 15 shots he faced, two on the next eight, three on the last nine.

-- The locker room guys will catch a break. Sean Avery didn’t do enough to work up a sweat. No need to get his jersey laundered.

-- The Rangers scored as many power play goals tonight (four) as they had in their previous 15 games. They hadn’t had that many in a game since going 5-for-10 against Toronto on December 29, 2007.

-- The five goals allowed by the Caps equaled the number they allowed in the previous four games, combined.

It was quite a game, reminiscent of the goal-fests of the 1980’s. And that was the problem for the Rangers. Give them their due, they came out snarling and pressing and intent on ending the Caps’ winning streak. They crowded the net, they converted chances. But the Rangers do not have the depth of skill the Caps have. The Caps managed to keep Marian Gaborik off the board, and that was the difference in the end. The Caps’ big guns scored – Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble. The Rangers’, well… big gun… didn’t.

And now the Caps come home. They will be taking on a team that is in upheaval, but that sort of thing can focus the mind, too. The Thrashers will be dangerous tomorrow, another team that will have its sights set on ending the streak.

Get some sleep on the plane ride home guys, you earned it.

Snowmageddon!

This just in... it's going to snow tomorrow.

You might have heard. In fact, there are reports that starting sometime around midday tomorrow, Washington could be in for a storm of such proportions as to have never been seen since... well, December (if that was "Snowpocalypse," is this going to be "Snowmageddon?").

Still, that storm locked down the three major area airports for a time until they could find the keys to the snow plows and get their runways cleared.

And therein lies a concern for Caps fans this weekend. Friday the team will host the Atlanta Thrashers, and we imagine that game will go off without a hitch. It might be sparsely attended, as Caps fans stay home, shovels in one hand, Topper Shutt on Twitter on their iPhones in the other. But the game should be played (the Thrashers might be stuck here until May, but that's another issue).

There are folks, though, who seem to think that the game scheduled for noon on Sunday could be a problem. The Caps are scheduled to host the Pittsburgh Penguins in a game to be broadcast nationally by the Nothing but Red Wings, Rangers, Flyers, and Penguins Broadcasting Company. If the snow lasts, as some forecasts indicate, well into Saturday night (or even Sunday morning), it could put the game in jeopardy.

Or so the argument goes.

To that, we say, "have you forgotten who leads the plucky band of Penguins?" We can see a couple of scenarios playing out...

Imagine the Penguin flight departing Montreal after their game on Saturday. Radar indicate that the entire eastern seaboard is bathed in white, the snow piling up at an inch or more an hour. Surely, the plane cannot reach Washington...

Ah, but He rises from his seat, strides purposefully to the front of the cabin and exclaims...

"Behold His mighty hand!"

"It's a miracle! It's a miracle!"

"The wind opens the snow! Crosby opens the clouds with the blast of his lips."

"He leads them through the midst of the blizzard. His will be done."

"He opens the snow drifts before them…"

Shouts of "Amen!" ensue...


Or, we can imagine the Penguins are at the departure lounge at Trudeau Airport... a scratchy holographic message is discovered in an equipment bag...


"Captain Ka-rosbi…years ago, you served my people in the Stanley Cup playoffs; now we beg you to help us in our struggle to get through the snow to Washington. I regret that I am unable to present my request to you in person; but my airplane is stuck at the gate and I'm afraid my mission to bring you to Washington has failed. I've placed information vital to the survival of NBC's Sunday programming schedule into this equipment bag... under Guerin's sock, I think. You must see our team safely delivered to Washington. This is our most desperate hour. Help me, Sidni-wan Ka-rosbi; you're our only hope."


Or perhaps the Penguins are sitting in the locker room after the game against the Canadiens. The reports out of Washington are grim -- two feet of snow, and still falling. The guys are muttering about the end of hockey for the weekend... Then, The Kid stands up...

"None of you have to go. We can all just sit here in this locker room, wait for this big snow storm to pass through, kill everything and everybody we know, or at least cancel the hockey game. The National Broadcasting Company and the NHL just asked us to save the world... uh, I mean the Sunday game. Anybody wanna say no?"

Gonch: "Five years. Haven't turned you down once. Not about to start now. I'm there. "

Billy Guerin: "Guess I can't let you go up there alone."

Orpik: "I'm with you. "

Fleury: "Man, this is - this is historic. Guys, this is, like, deep blue hero stuff! Of course I'm in."

Letang: "While I don't share his enthusiasm, you know me. Beam me up, Scotty!"

The Kid: "You all right, Max?"

Max: "I-I don't, I-I don't... Whatever you think."

The Kid: [to Geno] "How about you?"

Geno: "I'm in."

The Kid: "All right then. We go."

Letang: "I don't mean to be the materialistic weasel of this group, but do you think we'll get hazard pay or maybe an extra standing point out of this?"

...and thus, Snowmageddon is averted.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, February 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“I’m Shaquille O’Neal…”

“…and I’m Ben Stein.”

And you guys aren’t letting me get connected this morning…

What with some “issues” with respect to our internet provider this morning, we have a somewhat abbreviated prognosto. Let’s get to the guts of it…

The Rangers suck.

That’s not merely a cheer for Caps fans at Verizon Center, it’s a statement of fact regarding the Rangers and their performance recently. To wit, since the start of the new calendar year…

- They are 6-8-3
- They have scored 37 goals in 17 games (2.18/game). Take away the 14 they scored in consecutive games against Montreal and Tampa Bay in the middle of January, and that’s 23 goals in 15 games.
- Four of the goals came from players no longer with the Rangers (Ales Kotalik, Christopher Higgins)
- They are 5-for-63 on the power play (7.9 percent); they are without a power play goal in their last seven games.
- They have been held to one or no goals nine times in 17 games.
- They have been shutout four times.

There are two players who absolutely have to perform for the Rangers for them to have even a chance to win these days…

Marian Gaborik. He has eight of the Rangers’ 37 goals since January 1st. Of the six wins the Rangers have this month, he has goals in three of them. About those eight goals since January 1st – by themselves they would rank fifth on the team for the season (not including Gaborik). 20 of his goals this year have come in the Rangers’ 25 wins. And against the Caps he has a pair of two-goal games this year. It would probably be wise to pay attention.

Henrik Lundqvist. If Gaborik has to score, Lundqvist has to keep teams from scoring, and oh, has he been doing that lately. He has had 13 appearances so far since January 1st, and in 10 of them he allowed two or fewer goals. He had a stretch in late January where he allowed 12 goals in three games, but that might be explained away as his suffering the onset of the flu that would end up keeping him out of the last two games of January. Lundqvist returned to the ice on Tuesday and held the Los Angeles Kings to two goals. Trouble is, only Gaborik could get a goal – the Rangers lost, 2-1. He is 1-1-0 against the Caps so far this season (3.03, .887).

The Rangers could use some support. Brandon Dubinsky, for example. He is the third-leading point scorer for the Blueshirts this season, and that in only 44 games. He has four goals since January 1st, two of them game-winners. But he has never recorded a goal in the regular season against the Caps in nine games (he does have four assists).

Then there is Sean Avery. In his first tour with the Rangers, his 23 goals in 80 games and 212 penalty minutes made him the darling bad boy of Manhattan. Then he ended up in Dallas. Well, that didn’t work, so back to Manhattan he came. Unfortunately – for the Rangers – he has only six goals in 52 games this season, only two of them since Thanksgiving. Once a “bad boy,” now he’s merely obnoxious. He has an assist in one game against the Caps this season.

If there is a weakness for the Rangers – other than their inability to find the back of the net with a map and a flashlight – it is their defense. More column inches have been devoted to Wade Redden and Michal Roszival by the New York Post’s Larry Brooks than have been devoted to two World Wars. None of that commentary has been complimentary. Michael Del Zotto is a defenseman with considerable promise, and he showed that early on by going 4-8-12, plus-4 in his first dozen games this year, his first in the NHL. But reality does set in with young guys, and since Thanksgiving he is 1-7-8, minus-18 in 34 games.

For the Caps, this is a big stage, and Alex Ovechkin seems to like a big stage, be it Toronto, Montreal, or the Big Apple. He has four goals in his last five games at Madison Square Garden. And, although he has ten goals since being named Captain, he has only one multi-goal game since December 19th.

In the end, the Rangers can’t score (Olli Jokinen is not the answer to that problem), and Lundqvist has to come up big after flying home from the left coast, having played a game just after coming back from the flu.

If Gaborik doesn’t score and Lundqvist doesn’t come up big (both of which have to occur for the Rangers to win these days, it seems), they have little chance. And if the Caps can get off to a good start, perhaps a couple of early goals, the crowd will be in full-throated “FIRE SATHER” roar right quick. A couple of early goals, an Ovechkin multi-goal game, and an angry crowd.

Sounds like a plan.

Caps 5 – Rangers 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Bruins 1

It could have been over before it even started.

The streak and the game, that is. The Caps made things hard on themselves early, taking four minor penalties in the first 12 minutes of the game, but found their brains, reattached them, and then made quick work of the Boston Bruins in the third period to win their franchise-record setting 11th straight game last night, 4-1, in Boston.

Hidden among the boneheaded plays for the Caps was a sublime effort by one of Massachusetts’ own – Tom Poti, who recorded a couple of superb primary assists and finished a plus-4 for the night. But even Poti’s effort paled against the play of goalie Jose Theodore, who might have played his best game in this recent run of fun by the Caps. Theodore saved ten of 11 shots on six Bruin power plays (allowing only a 5-on-3 power play goal), turned away four shorthanded shots from the B’s (as many shots as the Caps had on their own power play), stood tall against David Krejci on a penalty shot that the Bruin fired wide, and kept the net empty of pucks on 27 even strength shots to get the win. He single-handedly kept the Caps in the game in the first 14 minutes as the Caps were keeping the seat warm in the penalty box.

Once more it was the explosiveness of the Caps’ offense that turned the tide after Theodore's heroics. This time, it was in the third period when the Caps lit the fireworks. After tying the game in the second when Mike Knuble took a nice feed from the left wing wall by Tom Poti, banging the pass behind goalie Tim Thomas from about two feet out, the Caps would get what would be the game-winner and some insurance less than three minutes apart early in the third. First, Matt Hunwick committed a ghastly giveaway in his own end, putting the puck right on the stick of Alexander Semin, who found Brooks Laich for a point blank chance at Thomas. Laich converted to give the Caps their first lead. 2:47 later, it was Tom Poti, looking for all the world like Mike Green lugging the puck out of his own end and around a pair of Bruins on his way into the offensive zone. He peeled off to the right wing wall, but found Boyd Gordon inside the edge of the right-wing circle for a redirect with Bruin Steve Begin about to drape himself all over Gordon.

After that it was a case of Boston’s offense-challenged history in recent games coming back to bite them, and Alex Ovechkin sealing the deal with an empty-netter in the last minute for the final tally.

Other stuff…

-- Kanoobie was yapping at the screen when Mike Knuble was deemed having hooked David Krejci enough to award the Bruin a penalty shot. One of the criteria for awarding a penalty shot is “to restore a scoring opportunity which was lost as a result of a foul being committed by the offending team.” You could argue for a hooking call there, but it didn’t appear as though Knuble was able to deny Krejci a scoring opportunity. Theodore had to make a fine save on a shot by Krejci to get to the penalty shot.

-- Think it’s a good idea to cheese off the captain? Look at this sequence…


…The Caps got the game-winning goal less than 90 seconds later.

-- Five giveaways… total… for both teams… combined. Nine takeaways… total… for both teams… combined… Local scoring rules? At least they caught that Hunwick giveaway.

-- Discounting Ovechkin’s unassisted empty netter, seven players shared points in three goals (Poti the only multi-point player). The Caps continue to spread things around. The flip side of that is 14 Bruins on the minus-side of the ledger. That’s making a whole team play defense. No one for the opponents is getting a line or a shift off.

-- Another indicator of how the Caps are spreading things around… Ovechkin finished the game with two shots on goal, one of them the empty-net goal. And still they had four goals.

-- Three minors for Alexander Semin – high-sticking and a pair of hooking calls. We’re hoping this is merely a hiccup in his recent attention to detail.

-- John Erskine… plus-3, two hits, three blocked shots.

-- The Caps lost the overall faceoff wars, 34-38, but they did win 17 of 30 in the defensive end. Still, that is a high number of defensive zone draws, which speaks to the sluggishness with which the Caps played, especially early.

-- The Caps have played 16 games in the new year (14-2-0). They have allowed two or fewer goals in 12 of them. Just sayin’…

-- The nine-game streak with at least one power play goal ended in this one. The power play is still at 32.1 percent since the beginning of the year (18-for-56).

-- Michael Ryder is going to be seeing Jose Theodore in his sleep for the next month. Ryder had five shots on goal, and you could argue that all five of them were excellent scoring opportunities. Theodore was absolutely acrobatic in turning away some of them. And that doesn’t even include the “Varlamov-esque” paddle save at the goal line with the game tied at a goal apiece and the clock under five minutes in the second period, when the puck hit a skate and was sliding toward the open net.

This game was a classic case of the goalie keeping the team in the game until they could find their stride at the other end of the ice. Jose Theodore has done that a couple of times in this streak, but not better than he was last night. In terms of sheer compete level, it might have been his best game of the year.

And so now the team gets a day off to spend with the Dads as they head to New York to take on the Rangers tomorrow. It’s a day off well earned and perhaps just the tonic a team needs to reset and recharge to keep a recent run of success going. In case you need some hint as to what that recent run of success means…

F Street Phil Sees Shadow

Predicts four more months of Caps winning

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, February 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps head north tonight to try to add another win to their recent pleasantness as they travel through Lexington and Concord, to Boston to take on the Bruins for the first time since defeating them, 4-1, on opening night. They will do so proud to claim January’s NHL Player of the Month, the Captain, Alex Ovechkin…

"It is a very great mistake to imagine that the object of loyalty is the authority and interest of one individual man, however dignified by the applause or enriched by the success of popular actions."

Huh?

“The Capitals have many leaders.”

Oh, OK… you look familiar.

“You’ve probably entertained the likeness of my visage in the sale of goods.”

Oh yeah… beer labels. You’re Samuel Adams! It’s a privilege to meet a great son of Massachusetts…

“I thankee for the sentiment… I have tried to abide by the precept that He therefore is the truest friend to the liberty of his country who tries most to promote its virtue.”

Yeah, well, we hockey fans do consider beer a virtue.

“The Capitals are coming! The Capitals are coming!!”

And who is that?

“That? That would be Revere, besotted again… ‘tis a wonder how he stays upon his steed.”

How would he know the Capitals were coming? Doesn’t there have to be that whole “one if by land, two if by sea” thing?

“A falsehood, sir. Entirely a falsehood. I shall share a secret with thee…”

OK…

“There never were any ‘two if by sea.' Revere was so fluthered, he saw very much two of everything…”

Well, what the Boston Bruins are going to get this evening are two NHL “stars” – Alex Ovechkin (NHL first star of the month for January) and Nicklas Backstrom (NHL third star for last week). And what the Bruins are also getting is lower and lower in the standings, a product of their having gone 0-5-2 in their last seven games, 1-8-2 in their last 11, and 3-9-2 for the month of January.

The precipitous fall through the standings leaves Boston 11th in the Eastern Conference and looking up at the playoffs. Fortunately for the Beantowners, the Eastern Conference is as tight as can be with only three points separating 6th and 13th place. Only two points separate Boston from a spot in the top-eight. Overall, the numbers speak to Boston’s struggles…


The Bruins are having a devil of a time getting goals. In 14 games in January they managed more than three goals only once and more than two goals only three times. 26 goals for the month (1.86/game) has put a lot of pressure on Boston’s goaltending. Last year’s Vezina Trophy winner – Tim Thomas – has had an inconsistent month, certainly not at the level of last year’s Vezina-worthy production. For January Thomas was 3-5-2, 2.74, .909 and was relieved three times. He hasn’t won a game since January 14th (the last win for the Bruins). His five consecutive decisions without a win is his longest such streak this year and his longest since he closed the 2006-2007 season with seven consecutive losses. With his loss to the Capitals on opening night this season, Thomas is 9-3-2, 2.58, with one shutout for his career against the Caps.

If it isn’t Thomas, it will be Tuukka Rask. And if Thomas had a difficult month, Rask’s was one to burn the tapes of. In seven appearances for the month he had only four decisions. On three other occasions he came on in relief of Thomas. Overall he was 0-4-0, 2.96, .896 for the month. He has never faced the Capitals.

It doesn’t take an American revolutionary to figure out where Boston’s problems lie. They can’t score. Looking at their top five scorers for the year, here is how bleak it was in January…

Patrice Bergeron: 1-2-3 (he missed six games)
Blake Wheeler: 5-5-10 (but has one goal in his last six games)
Zdeno Chara: 1-4-5
Mark Recchi: 3-3-6 (one goal in his last 11 games)
David Krejci: 2-7-9 (one goal in his last ten games)

The Bruins have only one 30-point scorer for the season (Bergeron, 12-21-33), and only Marco Sturm has more than a dozen goals. He missed half a dozen games in January, too.

It gets worse… even with a 2-for-7 performance on the power play in their last game out (a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Kings), the Bruins are 3-for-24 on the power play (12.5 percent) in their last ten games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Marc Savard

Savard missed eight games to a knee injury in January, and that comes after sustaining a broken foot in October. He has dressed for only 30 games this year in what is a disappointing season after putting up 88 points last year and not missing a game. In two games since coming back from the knee injury he has an assist in each game. He might be getting back into a groove he was settling into in late December when he had a five-game points streak (1-7-8). The Bruins desperately need it. He has had quite a bit of success against the Caps – 9-38-47 in 36 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Jose Theodore

Theodore had a rather spectacular January – 8-1-0, 2.28, .930. But he has been something of a hard-luck Harry against the Bruins in his career. Despite a 2.49 GAA, a .918 save percentage, and two shutouts, Theodore has only an 11-12-3 lifetime win-loss record against the Bruins. For this one, he is facing a goal-challenged club that is getting desperate the lower it sinks in the standings. He’s been sharp. He’s been consistent. Now the trick is to keep it going.

Keys:

1. No mercy. The Bruins can’t score and are pop-gunning their power play. So give them no chances to feel good about themselves. No softies, no dumb penalties, bear down on the PK if you do take penalties…pretty much the basics.

2. No press clippings. The Caps have won ten in a row. The Caps are playing good defense. The Caps are rising in the power rankings. Crumble up all that press and toss it.

3. Mark Marco. Marco Sturm leads the Bruins in goals (16). Since the lockout he is 5-3-8 in 12 games against the Caps (scoreless in the loss to Washington in October). And, 11 of his 16 goals have come in wins. Keep him off the score sheet.

In the end, the Caps are catching something of a break here. The Bruins aren’t getting offense from anywhere, and Tim Thomas is not at the top of his game. That is not to say that this is a walk-over game. The Bruins are not as good as their results from last year suggest, but neither are they as bad as they were in January. What they have become is one of those desperate teams that can make life difficult for a team like the Caps if they are not taken seriously. So…take them seriously.

Caps 4 – Bruins 2