A ONE-point night: Hurricanes 4 - Caps 3 (OT)

For 40 minutes tonight the Washington Capitals played a very good road game – they kept things simple and did not allow many chances for the other side. Their effort was rewarded with a 2-1 lead over the Carolina Hurricanes at the second intermission. Then, one of the oldest sayings in sports took hold…

“The only thing a ‘prevent defense’ prevents is winning.”

The third period did not start that way. The Caps did manage five shots on goal in the first 8:00 of the period to keep the pressure on the Hurricanes. But the Caps would not get another shot on goal over the next 9:34, during which the Hurricanes tied the game. The Hurricanes would score again to take a late lead, but Eric Fehr saved the Caps from the embarrassment of a complete third period collapse by tying the game with 9.5 seconds left to send the contest to overtime. There, Ray Whitney took advantage of the last of many blunders late, as he had nothing but clear ice between himself and goalie Semyon Varlamov, just the thing to launch a slap shot that hit Varlamov, but snuck through and crawled across the line for a 4-3 overtime win.

Bruce Boudreau said after the game that there was “a lot of good video,” suggesting that there was going to be an opportunity to show a number of guys a lot of mistakes. In the “glass half full/glass half empty” way of looking at it, the Caps got a point. On the other hand, they did not look good in doing it, especially in the last ten minutes of regulation and in overtime.

Other stuff…

-- More “glass half full/glass half empty… Joe Corvo got his first two goals as a Cap tonight, both on plays where he filled a void to take a pass and beat goalie Justin Peters before he could reset. On the other hand, he was out there getting out of position long enough to allow Chad LaRose to see the opening, sprint down the middle, take a long lead pass from Jussi Jokinen and score the go-ahead goal that should have been the game-winner in regulation.

-- Only ten of the 18 Capitals skaters had shots on goal tonight. It is one thing for defenseman Jeff Schultz not to have one – offense is not his game. But the three Caps’ centers not named “Backstrom” (Brendan Morrison, Eric Belanger, and David Steckel) had a total of no shots on goal and only two shot attempts.

-- Steckel had a difficult night – no shots, no points, 7-for-20 in the circle.

-- Glass half full/glass half empty… Semyon Varlamov stopped 17 of 18 shots in the game’s first 52:34, and the one goal he allowed was a tap-in from the doorstep by Eric Staal, a goal he had no chance of stopping. He stopped eight of 11 over the last 11:28, and while the defense did not play very well in front of him, the goal by Brett Carson to tie the game at two apiece was one he just cannot allow in that situation, over his right pad on the long side. And despite the defensive gaffe on the game-winner, he had a clear look at the puck and never did look as if he was set for the shot. 

-- The Caps just didn’t pay much of a price to get goals in this one. The shot graphic (from ESPN.com) indicates only eight shots from a triangle (ok, a trapezoid), the boundaries of which are from the goal through the faceoff dots and to the top of the circles…

…the Caps had as many shots on goal from outside the faceoff dots.

-- The Caps spread it around in this respect tonight. 12 different skaters were on the ice for Carolina goals, including every defenseman (Mike Green was on for two – the third and fourth goals).

-- The Caps had one giveaway tonight, according to the official scoring.

-- The Caps had nearly as many missed shots (24) as shots on goal (28).

-- The make-shift top line – Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble, and Tomas Fleischmann – was 0-2-2, minus two, with five shots on goal. That’s not terrible, but they had a combined 11 shot attempts that did not get to the net (blocks and misses).

-- With those two assists, Backstrom climbed into a tie for third in league scoring with Sidney Crosby, both with 87 points (of course…).

-- Here is an odd snippet from this one… John Carlson skated four consecutive shifts in the second period that ended in penalties. He didn’t commit any of them, and he didn’t draw any of them.

-- Eric Fehr became the Caps’ seventh 20-goal scorer with his late tally. That makes five in his last seven games, despite getting more than 14 minutes of ice time in only one of those games.

-- The last two goals for the Hurricanes were both the product of bad reads. On the Hurricanes’ third goal, Eric Belanger attempted a shot from the top of the left wing circle, but the puck did not get through. He then circled down the middle to follow up, but got caught in a no-man’s land as Jussi Jokinen picked up the puck. Joe Corvo did not appear to cycle back in time, and both he and Mike Green were caught flat-footed as Chad LaRose broke down the middle to take Jokinen’s pass on a breakaway.

-- On the last goal, it was simply a case of the sort of miscommunications that you see an any sport – two outfielders looking at one another to take the fly ball that drops for a hit, two defensive backs taking the same receiver that allows another to break free, two defenders in basketball not making a switch on a pick play that allows a shooter an open look at the basket. In this instance, it was Mike Green and Jeff Schultz. Eric Staal cut across the top of the circles with Jeff Schultz on him. Green must have thought a switch was in order, because instead of following Ray Whitney going in the other direction with the puck, he pivoted and started after Staal. That opened up a lane right down the middle, and Whitney took advantage of it to step into the slap shot that won the game.

-- Here is your fun fact for the night. The Caps have outscored opponents this year at 5-on-5 by 182-116, by far the best ratio of for/against in the league. Great at even strength, right? Well, at 4-on-4, they have been outscored 11-5. They are 25th in the league in 4-on-4 ratio (0.45) and have given up more 4-on-4 goals than any team in the league (edit: those numbers this morning are 184-117 and 13-5, which just reinforces the point).

-- Even with all that nonsense, the Caps had the game on their sticks twice in the overtime. Only 35 seconds into the extra frame, Jason Chimera had the puck between the circles and only the goalie to beat. He shot the puck over the crossbar. Then, just over two minutes in, Fleischmann forced a turnover in the Carolina end. Brooks Laich picked up the loose puck and had an opening. Unfortunately, he has to “wrong-foot” a shot off his forehand, and Justin Peters got enough of it to turn it aside. After that, one had a feeling this would not end well for the Caps.

The Caps got a point, but the takeaway for this game is this – Jose Theodore will get the start against Tampa Bay on Saturday. The Caps will then have four days off before taking on the Penguins when they return to Verizon Center. It will be Semyon Varlamov’s turn in the rotation. The thing is, will Bruce Boudreau have made up his mind, with what will then be ten games left to play, on his number one goaltender?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Eight days ago, the Caps hosted the Carolina Hurricanes at Verizon Center, defeating the visitors, 4-3, in overtime. The Caps hope to prove to be as rude a visitor as they were a host tonight as the Caps head to Raleigh to take on Carolina in a rematch. This is the fifth meeting of the clubs this year, the Caps holding a 3-1 edge, although all of the wins were of the one-goal variety, and two of those were obtained in overtime. What’s more, the Caps will play tonight as Alex Ovechkin sits for the back half of his two-game unpaid vacation. Having heard that Ovechkin was “disappointed” at his having been suspended by the league for his hit on Brian Campbell last Sunday, we thought of another man who felt himself wrongly accused of a crime. We sat down with one of the most famous innocents in literature, Edmond Dantes, the Count of Monte Cristo, to get his take on the situation…

The Peerless Prognosticator: “Count, welcome.”

Edmond Dantes: ‘Thank you, and please, call me Ed… that ‘Count’ thing was just for the book.”

TPP: Well, Ed, you were stashed away in the Chateau d’If for a crime you did not commit. Our situation with Alex Ovechkin is a bit different – he committed the crime, but the question is the punishment. How does one handle what one feels is too stern a sentence?

ED: “I maintain my pride in the face of men, but I abandon it before God, who drew me out of nothingness to make me what I am."

TPP: An interesting piece of advice. How does one feel when the realization hits that you have been accused wrongly or, in this case, perhaps, judged wrongly?

ED: “His mind was filled with a single thought: that of his happiness destroyed for no apparent reason.”

TPP: When you came back into the world from prison, and when Ovechkin takes the ice on Saturday against Tampa Bay, what would be the natural thought one might harbor?

ED: “Farewell to kindness, humanity and gratitude. I have substituted myself for Providence in rewarding the good; may the God of vengeance now yield me His place to punish the wicked."

TPP: Isn’t that a bit severe? Ovechkin will still have the Stanley Cup to play for. Might this experience have benefitted him in some way?

ED: "Only a man who has felt ultimate despair is capable of feeling ultimate bliss."

Ah, well, thank you, Ed. That is something to keep in mind, but for tonight, the Ovechkin-less Caps will take the ice against an old and familiar nemesis. The clubs have split 28 goals right down the middle this year, the Hurricanes holding the only multi-goal win in this year’s series (a 6-3 win at Verizon Center in December). The Caps have won both contests in Raleigh this year and look for the road sweep tonight on the heels of sweeping the season series against Florida on Tuesday.

The big factor for the Hurricanes here, one which might have crippled their faint playoff chances, was Cam Ward going down to injury in early February. Although goalies Manny Legace and Justin Peters held the fort admirably for a time, the cracks might finally be appearing. Starting with the game eight days ago against the Caps, the pair have allowed 16 goals on 136 shots (.882 save percentage). The ‘Canes are 1-2-1 in those games, and their win came in overtime (against the Penguins… thanks, guys).

Edit... the overall numbers look like this...

It would appear Justin Peters will get the call in this game in what will be a contest of rookie goaltenders (Semyon Varlamov’s number is up for this one after Jose Theodore’s win over Florida on Tuesday). Peters, a second round draft pick in 2004 (38th overall), has played in six games in this, his rookie season. He is 4-2-0, 2.35, .923 in those appearances, but in his last three he is 1-2-0, 3.34, .887. And Peters is no shrinking violet, as this kerfuffle with Alexandre Picard in February 2009 indicates…



Carolina has suffered a bit of a goal scoring letdown in the eight days since taking the Caps to overtime. They did get four against the Penguins in a 4-3 overtime win, but were shutout by Phoenix in their next outing and managed only two in a 5-2 loss to Boston on Tuesday.

One of the problems is the curious lack of production from Eric Staal. True, he participated in the Vancouver Olympic Games, but his slump predates that hiatus. Staal has one goal (against his brother Jordan’s Penguins) in his last dozen games and is 1-6-7 over that span. He could very well break out of that slump tonight, given that he is 3-5-8, plus-3 in four games against the Caps this year. He has more goals, assists, and points against the Caps this season than he has against any other opponent.

Staal’s lack of production has been mirrored by the still-here Ray Whitney, at least in the post Olympic part of the year. Since the break Whitney is 1-2-3, minus-2, in eight games. However, unlike Staal, who has had a big year against the Caps, Whitney has only a single assist in four games this season after piling up 48 points in 52 career games coming into this year. It says in the Hurricanes media guide that the most played song on his iPod is “Oh Lord, It’s Hard to be Humble.” The way things are going for him lately – working through a slump on a team that will end its season early and playing a team against which he hasn’t had much success this season, he might find some of that humility.

There might not be many bright spots for the Hurricanes this year, but Joni Pitkanen might at least have a dull glow about him. He is Carolina’s leading scorer from the blue line and hasn’t had a bad post-Olympic part of the season (1-2-3, plus-3 in eight games). He is still playing a ton of minutes – not fewer than 24 since the break and three times over 30 – and is within shouting distance of his career high in points. At 5-35-40, he needs seven more points to set that career mark.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Jussi Jokinen

When Jokinen potted a goal against the Caps eight days ago, it was his 16th goal in 20 games. He had not gone consecutive games without a goal since January 14th when he had his seventh straight without one. Since that goal against the Caps, Jokinen has not found the back of the net in three games. Is the run over? He is 0-0-0, minus-4 in those three games. If the Hurricanes have a shot in this one, that three game streak can’t become four.

Washington: Tomas Fleischmann

Fleischmann did not score a goal against Carolina in any of the first 19 games he faced the Hurricanes in his career. But he has goals in two of his last three against them. What he still does not have is a goal against Carolina in Raleigh. He had the game-winner in the game eight days ago against Carolina and has contributed a decent, if not outstanding, 2-2-4, plus 3 line in eight games since the Olympic break. With Alex Ovechkin out, the Caps still do not really lack for offense, but with Fleischmann assuming a bigger responsibility in Ovechkin’s absence (he played 18:29 in the last game, the most ice time he’s received since the break), his contributions are important.

Keys:

1. An Empty Box. The Caps struggle as a road team on the penalty kill. The Hurricanes have the seventh highest number of home power play opportunities in the league this season. Washington has the seventh highest number of shorthanded situations faced on the road. That is a potentially dangerous mix. Stay – out – of – the – box.

2. Steady wins the race. In four games since his return from injury, Semyon Varlamov’s save percentages have gone: .786, .862, .885, .889. Now, that won’t get you a seat on an all-star game bench, but it is consistent improvement. Here is the thing to watch. In his first three games back he allowed a total of seven third period goals. Last time out – none. He’s got to be able to slam the door in the third period.

3. Speaking of third periods… Carolina has allowed 83 third period goals this year. That is third worst in the league. The Caps have scored 98 third period goals this year, 11 more than the second place team. Carolina has played the Caps tough this year – three one-goal games and a three-goal win. But if this game is close after two, the Caps have quite a third period advantage.

In the end, the snow has melted, the cherry blossoms are about to bloom, and teams in Carolina’s situation are starting to look forward to getting outdoors and whacking a dimpled ball through the pines. The Caps, even without Alex Ovechkin, are a formidable team, especially capable of wreaking havoc on a goalie who has never faced them. Don’t be surprised if Carolina has to use two goaltenders tonight…

Caps 6 – Hurricanes 2

The Most Feared Man in the Game

Well, it’s been a few days since “The Shove.” It seems everyone with a keyboard in North America has weighed in on the matter of Alex Ovechkin’s five seconds of mayhem inflicted on Brian Campbell last Sunday, and there have been a lot of different angles…

“Is Ovechkin a dirty player?”

“Was it even a penalty?”

“Should he have been suspended?”

“Was the suspension long enough?

Then there is the “secondary market” of opinions that look at whether this latest instance of Ovechkin’s peculiar style of play is as much a threat to his own longevity as that of the players he is hitting all over the ice. The latest of these came in the form of a column by Mike Wise in this morning’s Washington Post, and while we have an issue with Wise conflating the issues of “Is the most potent force in the game also the most reckless and dangerous?” and “Is Ovie dirty?” (one question literally following the question mark of the other), we think Wise’s attention to the comments of Mike Knuble are a reasonable basis for a conversation. Wise quoted Knuble…

"There was something in the corner with maybe five minutes left. Alex kind of went at a guy. [The score] was 6-1. I was kind of like, 'Slow down a bit.' Just for your own sake. You don't need to accidentally catch your knee on somebody. There are some times, when as a player, you can save yourself a little bit."

The quote made us think of a player who was once referred to as "The Most Feared Man in the Game.” He doesn’t come from hockey, but from professional football 40 years ago. Dick Butkus arrived in Chicago from the University of Illinois already possessing the reputation as perhaps the best player at his position ever to come out of college football, not a too distant parallel to Ovechkin being the best player in his draft class in 2004 and perhaps the best amateur player of the past 20 years coming into the NHL.

Butkus quickly earned a reputation for the big hit, the highlight tackle, the play that would bring fans out of their seats and threaten bodily damage to the subject of his attention. He consistently led his team in tackles and fumbles forced, testimony to his ability to inflict damage on opposing ball carriers regularly and consistently. But his style was one that didn’t allow for modulating his behavior. He was always running at 100 percent. The Pro Football Hall of Fame biography of Butkus describes a player that resembles Ovechkin…

“Dick had drive, meanness, a consuming desire to pursue, tackle, and manhandle – anything he could do to thwart the enemy on every play. Still he was a clean player, totally devoted to his career, a man who by his own admission played every game as though it were his last one.”

That drive and consuming desire came at a price. Butkus survived only nine years in the NFL, leaving the game at the age of 31 after sustaining a number of injuries over the years.

We can’t know what goes through the mind of an elite athlete, whether a player such as Butkus – or Ovechkin – has the wherewithal to find a way to pick their spots for the game-changing hit. Perhaps Ovechkin has to play the way he does to be as effective as he is. Butkus seemed to feel that way and even manufactured anger to help ramp up his focus. Again, from his Pro Football Hall of Fame biography…

“When I went out on the field to warm up, I would manufacture things to make me mad…If someone on the other team was laughing, I'd pretend he was laughing at me or the Bears. It always worked for me."

Sports fans are greedy. They want to have their star making the big play every game – every down, every inning, every minute, every shift. But they also want them around for years and years. Ovechkin has certainly tried to live up to his bargain with respect to the former. He never gives the impression of taking a shift off, and he is always locked in on the next target – the next goal, the next hit. There is no passing up an opportunity in his style to date; there is no “pacing himself.” Pro football and NHL hockey are different games, and Ovechkin doesn't give the impression of possessing the same raw meanness that characterized Butkus' game.  But Butkus and Ovechkin share this trait -- so far, Oveckin has played as if every shift is the last one of a playoff game.

Perhaps Ovechkin will, as he ages, find a way to modulate his game without sacrificing his effectiveness. Perhaps he will never find a way and somehow escape being on the wrong side of a hit. We can’t know which way is best; we have no station to prescribe what Ovechkin should or should not do.

As fans, we can only hold our breath, enjoy him… and however this turns out, hope he doesn’t turn into Dick Butkus.

A TWO-point night: Caps 7 - Panthers 3

Here is the only number you need to look at in the Caps’ 7-3 win this evening over the Florida Panthers..

100

That is the combined distance, in feet, from the Panthers’ net from which seven goals were scored for the Caps, according to NHL.com. And 30 of those came on one goal, that off the stick of Eric Fehr. Tonight, the Caps dealt with the absence of captain Alex Ovechkin by going back to basics – crashing the net, picking up loose change, and getting Florida goalies (and both ended up playing) flailing around on the ice waving at pucks batted past them from in close for scores.

Six different Capitals had goals, 13 different skaters had points. Not a bad night, all things considered, given that Ovechkin, Tom Poti, John Erskine, Scott Walker, and Boyd Gordon sat (oops… Gordon skated 1:05 before going out with a balky back), either to injury, suspension, or just taking a seat. At the other end of the ice, Jose Theodore stopped 34 of 37 shots, but it was hard to get a bead on whether he was sharp, or whether the onslaught at the other end had so beaten the Panthers into submission that they couldn’t muster much of a response in the offensive end. In any event, that makes Theodore 16-1-2 in the 2010 portion of the season. Whether that is the product of the luck of St. Patrick or that of channeling Patrick Roy, we don’t care (it’s worth noting that he has allowed more than three goals only three times in those 19 games). It’s all good right now.

Other stuff…

-- Shots, shots, shots. By the time the Caps hit the 30 shot mark in this one, the Caps had six goals and the competitive portion of the game was in the rear view mirror. They finished with 39 shots on goal.

-- The flip side of that is that the Panthers’ defense had only six blocked shots and six hits. That was not an especially active group this evening, and the Caps made them pay by inflicting a lot of abuse on goalies Tomas Vokoun and Scott Clemmensen.

-- Welcome back, Brendan Morrison. A goal, two assists, six shots on goal in 16 minutes and change. It was his first multi-point game since January 26th and tied his high-point game for the year (1-2-3 on December 3rd, also against Florida). His six shots on goal was a season high.

-- We had Mike Knuble as the player to ponder for Washington. Well, Brooks Laich did a more-than-passable impression with a couple of goals scored from the doorstep, an assist, eight shots on goal, and the game’s first star.

-- When the big dog is out, everyone has to ramp up their game, but still play within their comfort zone. Jason Chimera was a good example of that. In a little less than 14 minutes, he had a goal, six shot attempts (three on goal). That goal was a product of the simple idea of going hard to the net. Chimera has been very good at playing his game and, when needed, giving just a little more of it without trying to do things outside his comfort zone.

-- Shaone Morrisonn… two assists, two hits, two blocked shots. He’s having quite a 2010 portion to the season.

-- Even when Florida threatened to make a game of it, the Caps responded. Panthers score in the last two minutes of the first period? Ok… the Cap scored in the first minute of the second to restore a two-goal advantage. Florida scores at the 14:28 mark of the second? Fine… the Caps responded 1:30 later to slam the door on the outcome to make it 6-2.

-- Nicky the Pants… 3-2-5 in his last two, including a goal and an assist tonight. He has goals in consecutive games for the first time since February 4-5. Seems he might be back. Well, if he was ever really gone. Even though he had an eight-game goalless streak before getting goals in these last two, Backstrom hasn’t gone consecutive games without a point since the first two games of 2010 (28 games).

-- Folks in the Panthers’ front office must feel a bit shortchanged. Ovechkin played in only one of three games in Sunrise this season.

-- Two for four on the power play, three for three on the penalty kill. Efficient on both sides, and the three PK situations was right in that comfort zone of not taking too many shorthanded situations. But then again, the Panthers were badly outmatched. Still…

-- The centers – Backstrom, Morrison, and Eric Belanger – were a combined 8-for-10 on faceoffs in the offensive end. A way to keep putting pressure on the Panthers’ defense.

-- We’d just as soon the Caps never leave Florida. For the year, they finished 6-0 against the Panthers, outscoring them 32-15 and going 8-for-26 on the power play (30.8 percent). They didn’t score fewer than four goals in any game.

-- Tyler Sloan and Quintin Laing skated tonight. That might be the last time that year you’ll see both in the same game.

-- The Caps average more than a goal a game more without Ovechkin than with him. I don’t know, but that would seem to pretty much eliminate him from Hart consideration, wouldn't it?  On the other hand, four of the games he’s missed this year were against the Panthers, who (see above) haven’t exactly been defensive demons against the Caps.

-- Mike Green, with an assist tonight, now has consecutive 70-point seasons. He has 143 points in 135 games over the last two years. He is also a plus-56 over that span.

-- Brooks Laich’s eight shots on goal is a career high. He has 30 shots on goal in his last five games (four goals).

It was an efficient demolition of the Panthers tonight, evidence that the Caps are certainly more than a one-man band. It was the fifth time this year that the Caps scored at least seven goals, the second time against Florida. It was not the stiffest of tests, but it was encouraging in this respect – when getting a lead, the Caps kept their foot on the pedal and stood on the throats of the Panthers (nice mixed metaphor there, prognosto boy). It’s that kind of attitude the Caps need to maintain as they head off to Carolina.

Suspend our captain, will ya. Well, take that!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!

Well, Alex Ovechkin is on the shelf for two games for his shove to Chicago’s Brian Campbell on Sunday. Colin Campbell, the NHL’s Vice President of Silly Walks deemed the play “reckless” on Ovechkin’s part. Frankly, we think that the whole review of player penalties for purposes of fines and suspensions is shrouded in too much mystery. It’s not as if we’re electing a Pope here. Everyone would be better served if the process was conducted in the open. When you add in the fact that suspending Ovechkin makes him unavailable to play against the Florida Panthers this evening – a club that employs Campbell’s son, Gregory – it might have been better if the process had been conducted by a respected independent jurist. We’re thinking (and we think you’re thinking it, too)… Yup, Judge Judy. Here is how it might have gone…

Announcer: You are about to enter the courtroom of Judge Judy. The people are real. The cases are real. The rulings are final. This is her courtroom. This is Judge Judy.

The Bailiff: Order, all rise.

Announcer: The National Hockey League is considering the case of Brian Campbell versus Alex Ovechkin in which the latter is accused of committing the penalty of “boarding,” resulting in injuries to Mr. Campbell that will end his participation in further National Hockey League games this season.

The Bailiff: Be seated! Your honor, this is case number 101. Campbell vs. Ovechkin. All parties have been sworn in.

Judge Judy: All right, lets get down to business here. Now, Mr Campbell, you contend you were – what it the term – “boarded” by Mr. Ovechkin, is that right?

Campbell: ohhhhhhhhhhhhh…. ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Judge Judy: I’ll take your moans as a ‘yes.’

Campbell: --gurgle, gurgle--

Judge Judy: So, Mr. Ovechkin, you are responsible for this man's injuries, is that correct?

Ovechkin: It was not a hard hit. I just pushed him. It's just a moment in the game.

Campbell: OHHHHHHHHHHHHH…. Uhhhh…

Judge Judy: Hey! Hey! Bup, bup! Hey! Listen bo-jangles, you do not want me to come over there!

The Bailiff: You do not want that.

Judge Judy: Now continue, sir.

Ovechkin: I don't think it has to be five minutes or something like that. I just felt bad. That's it.

Niklas Hjalmarsson: I thought it was a late hit. That's the kind of situation you really hurt yourself. I hope they take a good look at that hit and suspend him for a couple of games.

Judge Judy: You do not want me to come over there, sir. Okay? Interrupt again, and you'll be dancing with the nutcracker [taps gavel on gavel platform]. Yeah, just put them right here they'll fit. All right, now Mr. Ovechkin, sir, I’m getting the impression you do not respect your fellow competitors.

Ovechkin: I respect everybody. We respect everybody here in the locker room and outside, but over there, we play for our team, and we make some hard hits, and sometimes, you get hurt. That's a hockey game.

Judge Judy: Oh, I gotta see this.

The Bailiff: She got to see this [runs clip of hit].

Ovechkin: See? It was not a hard hit. I just pushed him.

Judge Judy: Sir, I’m the one wearing the black robe here… that means I’ll be the judge of that.

Ovechkin: But Judge…

Judge Judy: Do not ‘Judge” me, sir… I’ll ‘Judge” you…. Get it? Burt, write that down…

The Bailiff: “I’ll… judge… you. Got it, your honor.”

Campbell: OHHHHHH….ohhhhhh…. OHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Ovechkin: “sounds like Crosby when someone skates by…”

Judge Judy: Okay, sir, bup bup!! No. The club is closing, sir! The club is full. All right, I'm ready to rule!

The Bailiff: oh, the good part!

Judge Judy: Mr. Ovechkin, you may not be aware of this, but I was quite the hockey player when I was a teenager [pulls partial denture out of mouth]. Mff…muhh.. mffmfff [puts partial back in] What I was trying to say was, no one is gonna pull the visor over these eyes, got it? I'm the boss, Applesauce.

Campbell: wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze…

Judge Judy: Are you in pain, Mr. Campbell?

Campbell: ohhhhhhhhhhh…

Judge Judy: "ohhhhhhhhhhhhh" is not an answer! What kind of training did you need to do "ohhhhhhhhhhh"?

Bruce Boudreau: See? See?

Judge Judy: Hey, hey! Bup, bup! Sir, sir! Okay, okay I'm gonna tell you to shut that wood chopping accident you call a mouth! … The court rules in favor of the plaintiff! Mr. Ovechkin, you are sentenced to two games without pay, although frankly why this ever came to my court, I’ll never know.

Well, the Judge – and Colin Campbell – have ruled and the Caps have to make do without their captain tonight when they face the Panthers in Sunrise. The Panthers come into this game watching their slim playoff hopes slipping away, despite a respectable 4-2-0 record since the Olympic break. With 15 games to play, the Panthers find themselves in 12th place in the East, five points behind eighth-place Boston with one game in hand. Overall, their numbers compare to those of the Caps as follows…

David Booth was flattened by a Mike Richards open-ice hit in a 5-1 loss to the Flyers on October 24th. The concussion he suffered in that game kept him out of the lineup until January 31st. He struggled after that return, going 0-2-2, minus-2 in seven games. But since the break he has come alive. In six games he is 2-5-7, plus-3, including a four-point night against those same Flyers in a 7-4 win on March 3rd. It was a game in which he settled a score, too, taking a five minute fighting major with Richards in the first period of that game. If the Panthers are going to win this game – if fact, make any further progress toward a playoff spot – Booth has to be a big part of it. He has yet to face the Caps this year, but last year he was 2-3-5 in five games.

The reason Booth’s return to the lineup and return to effectiveness is so important is that Nathan Horton remains out of the lineup. He is still recuperating from a broken leg, suffered January 21st against the Islanders. While he did return to the ice to practice with the team on Monday, he is not expected to return to the lineup until the end of the week at the earliest.

So, more of the burden falls to players like Michael Frolik. The second-year forward has four goals in his last five games and is now the Panthers third-leading overall scorer behind Horton and Stephen Weiss. It is another welcome spark for the Panthers, since Frolik had been ice cold going into the Olympic break (0-4-4 in his last 15 games going into the break). He is 2-1-3 in five games against the Caps this year, but is also a minus-4 in doing it. Things seem to happen when he’s on the ice for the Panthers, both good and bad.

Bryan McCabe leads the defense in scoring (8-27-35), and he is 1-8-9 in the six games since the break, including a four-point night (1-3-4) against the Flyers in the March 3rd game. He has three helpers in five games against the Caps this year, but he, too, has been on the wrong side of the plus-minus ledger in those games (minus-3).

If it’s Florida, it must mean Tomas Vokoun. It’s Vokoun pretty much every night. He’s been in the nets in 26 of the last 27 games for Florida this season (as well as backstopping the Czechs at the Olympics), his only night off coming in the first game back from the break. Playing in the Panthers’ last five games, he is 4-1-0, 2.35, .938. While he’s been sharp lately, he hasn’t been against the Caps. In three appearances this year he is 0-2-1, 3.62, .891, although holding the Caps to less than their average goal scoring production can't be said to be bad goaltending.

The Peerless Players to Ponder:

Florida: Stephen Weiss

Weiss has had success against the Caps this year (3-2-5) in five games. But Weiss is another player who has been on the ice for a fair number of goals against (he is minus-4 in those five games). He is currently on a four game streak without a point, and if the Panthers are to make a dent in the standings, he has to play to the leading scorer level he occupies with this team.

Washington: Mike Knuble

With Ovechkin out, more of the scoring burden falls to players like Knuble. Not that he’s suffered in that area against this team. In four games against the Panthers this year, Knuble is 4-4-8, plus-4. Florida might be just the tonic for Knuble, who is 2-1-3 in seven games since the break.

Keys:

1. Play your game… play your game. The Caps did just that when Ovechkin was tossed in the game on Sunday. But tonight, they have had a couple of days to think about it, and they’ve known since late yesterday that they would play without their captain. It’s not like the Caps don’t have other weapons. If they play their game, they have more than enough talent to be successful.

2. Make ‘em pay. Florida’s penalty killing is almost as woeful as the Caps. They rank 24th overall in that statistic, and they have the 27th-ranked home penalty kill. Only Edmonton and Atlanta have allowed more power play goals at home than the 28 the Panthers have allowed in 32 games.

3. Ready…aim… oh, shoot, just fire! Florida allows more shots per game than any team in the league – 34.0/game. That is absolutely lethal against a team like Washington… so long as the Caps don’t decide to dazzle the fans with a pointless passing exhibition. Shoot the puck.

In the end, here are the numbers that are relevant -- the Caps have outscored the Panthers by 28 goals in the first period, 30 goals in the second, and 37 goals in the third period. If the Caps lose this game, it is not because Alex Oveckhin is in the press box.

Caps 5 – Panthers 2


with thanks as we borrow from Judge Judy's own words and the fine writers of Saturday Night Live, not to mention real quotes from the players...well, except the "ohhhh" part form Mr. Campbell... and Ovechkin's crack about Crosby.

One Play, Two Points of View

Earlier today, the Washington Capitals defeated the Chicago Blackhakws, 4-3, in overtime.  But the incident that has tongues a-wagging and keyboards a-clacking is the hit by Alex Ovechkin on Blackhawks defenseman Brian Campbell.  On the one hand, it was an incidental hit -- a "hockey play" -- that merely had an unfortunate result.  On the other, it was a premeditated attempt at injury that was borderline felonious.  We've obtained exclusive footage (ok, screen shots from the NBC feed) of the sequence of events, and commentary from each side of the debate...

OK, here is Campbell getting control of the puck at the Chicago blue line, and there is Ovechkin doing what he's supposed to do as the first man in on the forecheck -- go after the puckcarrier.

What you see here is Brian Campbell in open ice about to get control of the puck and start the other way.  Unbeknown to him, there is lurking in his wake -- like the merciless Great White Shark (no coincidence he's wearing a white jersey, better to camouflage himself) -- Alex Ovechkin drawing a bead on his unsuspecting prey.

* * * * *

Here is Campbell tracking down the puck sliding through the faceoff circle.  Ovechkin is skating after him to force Campbell to make a quick decision of what to do with the puck, which is what you want the player to do in that instance.  Duncan Keith is quietly thinking, "uh-oh..."

Here is Campbell, skating after the puck while Ovechkin has locked onto his target, fully armed and ready to inflict maximum damage.  Duncan Keith is like the Secret Service agent walking along with the limousine in Dallas, powerless to prevent what is about to happen a mere feet in front of him.

* * * * *

Campbell is sweeping the puck to the side boards, leaving it for Duncan Keith, but his body is blocking Ovechkin's view.  Ovechkin can't be sure Campbell doesn't have the puck.

Campbell is sweeping the puck to the side boards, thinking his role in this play is over for the time being.  But he cannot know the malice that lurks in the beating heart of Ovechkin as his prey lies vulnerable to what is about to unfold.

* * * * *

Campbell turns away from his pass, taking him into the path of Ovechkin and leaving him in no position to fend off a collision.  He is leaning into the play, precariously perched in such a fashion that perhaps the slightest nudge will knock him off his skates entirely.  Antti Niemi appears to be shouting "LOOK OUT," but Campbell not understanding Finnish, thinks he is saying "NICE PASS."

Campbell is circling away from the puck, no longer a part of the play, but Ovechkin trains his sights on him, determined to finish the kill shot.  Goalie Antti Niemi can only watch helplessly as the assassination takes place.

* * * * *

Ovechkin makes contact with Campbell, who is still leaning in the opposite direction from the pass he made, leaving him unable to brace himself from any hit that might come.  Duncan Keith is quietly thinking, "yup...uh-oh."

The kill shot -- Ovechkin delivers his 235 pounds of mayhem directly to the numbers of Campbell, a shot from which Campbell has no hope of recovering.  Duncan Keith is spellbound by the horror unfolding.

* * * * *

Unable to brace himself from contact, Campbell falls forward awkwardly, landing in the end boards shoulder first.  Ovechkin is not in what one might think of as the sort of stance that would indicate a desire to drive the player into the boards.

Ovechkin is leering over his target, completing the kill shot.  Our Russian is bad, but one could almost hear him freakishly shrieking, "DIE BLACKHAWK SCUM...DIE!!!"  Or maybe, "oops..."  Like we said, our Russian is bad.

* * * * * 

Ovechkin is trying to avoid the fallen Campbell, who he knows has taken a bad fall. 

Ovechkin is about to provide the piece-de-resistance, trying to cut Campbell in two with his skate as he passes over him.  The Morton's the Steakhouse advertisement provides one last bit of cruel irony, for Ovechkin has just feasted on the carcass of Brian Campbell in one of the most dastardly displays of on-ice violence in the history of the sport.

* * * * * 

We do not mean to make light of an injury -- it is never a trivial matter.  It's just that in the last eight hours or so we have read some strange reactions to it.  From, "what's the big deal?" to "When is the date for execution?"  We are inclined to think the play was justly penalized, but whether it merited the five-minute major and game misconduct, we're not entirely in agreement with that. 

Looking at it, there is the hit, and there is the effect. What Ovechkin did was not an especially egregious play, physically. He pushed Campbell. In open ice, Campbell gets up and skates away. It’s the circumstance — Campbell was vulnerable and had no opportunity to brace himself for a full-on hit into the boards. And that led to the unfortunate effect.

This isn’t Ovechkin trailing Campbell and running his head into the boards (or, to repeat the verb one wag I saw using on Twitter, Campbell was "rammed" into the boards). It was a shove. The effect was much greater than the hit.

Is Ovechkin to blame? That’s a tough call. In real time, does a player have time to process an answer to the question, “should I hit this guy?” When Ovechkin shoved Daniel Briere into the Sabres' bench door frame a couple of years ago, you could fault Ovechkin for that. To me, this is a much tougher call. Campbell had just played the puck (although it was well off his stick when Ovechkin made contact).

If Ovechkin is suspended, I think I will be able to understand the reasoning, even if I don't agree with it.  But on its face it is not a clear cut call and perhaps merely one player getting into an unfortunate position based on the play he made.  Not to make it Campbell's fault, not at all; he made the smart play there.  But at the speed of this game, even the smart play -- or something as simple as a shove -- can have unfortunate results.

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 4 - Blackhawks 3 (OT)

Here is what the first paragraph of this was going to read at, oh, about 2:00 on Sunday afternoon…

“If you’re not going to do the little things, and if you’re going to play stupid, this is what happens against a good team that is motivated… you get run out of the building.”

Well, that was at about 2:00 on Sunday afternoon, or about the time at which the Caps found themselves down after 40 minutes by a 3-0 score to the Chicago Blackhawks after taking five first period penalties, getting only 18 shots on goal (actually, a lot by Blackhawk standards for shots allowed), watching as Alex Ovechkin was tossed for pushing Brian Campbell into the end boards head first, and generally giving voice to those who might think that the Caps are more the product of a weak Southeast Division than truly a ready for prime time championship contender.

Then they dropped the puck for the third period. And it was the Caps doing the running and the Blackhawks playing dumb. The first 3:50 of the period went uneventfully, with the Caps recording the only shot on goal – that by Brooks Laich. It looked for all the world like the beginning of a period in which the Caps and Blackhawks would play out the string – the Caps doing what they could against a very good defensive team bent on playing prevent defense.

Then Jordan Hendry took a double minor for high-sticking Alexander Semin.

Way wrong move. Brooks Laich made the Blackhawks pay after he whiffed on an attempt. The puck came back to him in the slot, and after Mike Green sent a shot to goalie Antti Niemi, he batted the rebound past Niemi to get the Caps on the board. As important as the goal, Colin Fraser was sent off for high-sticking that left the Caps again on the power play. Nicklas Backstrom used the opportunity to find the back of the net on an odd play. Mike Green started it as he drifted down to the Blackhawk goal line holding the puck. That’s right, defenseman Mike Green holding the puck at the Blackhawk goal line. He sent it out to Joe Corvo, who fired a shot at the Chicago net. Brooks Laich waved at it, trying to deflect it in, but the puck eluded him and hit the end boards. The puck rebounded hard off the boards and past Laich once more, but right onto the stick of Backstrom, who shot it past Niemi, and the Caps were within one.

Not for long. On the next shift, David Steckel won a race to the puck with Nicklas Hjalmarsson to prevent an icing call. Then he outfought Hjalmarsson to get control of the puck, sending it out to Eric Fehr between the hash marks. Fehr wasted no time snapping the puck past Niemi to tie the game.

From an 0-3 deficit and looking like a team checking departure times from O’Hare International Airport, the Caps scored three goals on five shots in a space of 2:16 to tie the game. The teams fought to a draw over the last 12:15 of regulation, neither team getting a goal.

In overtime it was Nicklas Backstrom who was very nearly the goat. As the clock ticked down to the two-minute mark, Backstrom tried a cross-ice pass from just outside his own blue line. But the puck hit Troy Brouwer, who collected it on his stick and skated in on goalie Jose Theodore. Mike Green got back to impede Brouwer’s path to the net while Backstrom was getting back into the play. It was enough to allow Backstrom to sweep the puck off Brouwer’s stick and off the boards, where he picked it up himself. He carried the puck down ice into the Chicago end where he faked Brent Seabrook to the ice, pulling the puck inside to his backhand. Before Duncan Keith could close on him, Backstrom pulled the puck back to his forehand and whipped it between Niemi’s pads for the game winner, capping one of the more improbable comebacks of the season.  The irony of Green making a play at one end and both Seabrook and Keith victimized at the other end seconds later is not lost on us.

Other stuff…

-- All four Caps goals were scored from approximately a five-foot square portion of the ice between and below the hashmarks. For you fans of the Chicago defense, that is as close to unacceptable as it gets. One? OK. Two? Maybe. But four? Bad day for the Blackhawk blueliners.

-- Will Ovechkin be suspended for his hit on Brian Campbell? Well, here is the rule…

23.5 Fines and Suspensions – Stick Infractions, Boarding and Checking from Behind Category - In regular League games, any player who incurs a total of two (2) game misconduct penalties for stick-related infractions, Boarding – Rule 42, or Checking from Behind – Rule 44, shall be suspended automatically for the next League game of his team.

Ovechkin received a boarding major and a game misconduct on November 25th against the Sabres. Under the rule, it would seem he would sit for the game against Florida on Tuesday, at a minimum. Ah, but read further from the rule…

When a player has played in 41 consecutive regular League games without being assessed a stick-related major and a game misconduct penalty according to Rule 20 – Major Penalties or Rule 22 – Misconduct Penalties, he will have the previous game misconduct penalties removed from his current record. They will remain part of his historical record.

The game against Buffalo was Game 25 of the season. This was Game 69. 44 games having passed, Ovechkin will not face an automatic suspension. And if Matt Cooke gets off for ending a player’s season (if not more), then what is going to be the basis for issuing supplementary discipline to Ovechkin?

-- Give Backstrom credit. He really stepped up in this one after Ovechkin’s exit. Two goals, an assist, three hits, two takeaways, two blocked shots, not turnovers. He could have had all three stars for his effort.

-- Although, once more we have to ask… home town scoring? The two teams combined for nine giveaways, total.

-- Please note for future reference… with the game tied, and the clock winding down in regulation, who was on the ice for the last shift for the Caps? John Carlson. He’s not going back to Hershey… ever.

-- Every Chicago center won a majority of draws. Only Eric Belanger kept the Caps from the reverse being true. In fact, Belanger won six of eight draws against Jonathan Toews, no mean feat. Toews won eight of nine against the rest of the Caps he faced. The good thing, though…only 11 draws taken in the Caps’ end.

-- Chicago had one shot on goal in the third period, and that one came with two seconds left in regulation. They had only eight attempts in the period. The Caps ripped a page out of the Blackhawk playbook, allowing only nine shots on goal in the last two periods combined.

-- OK, Backstrom I get… Toews, I get. But how is it that a guy who had a clean scoresheet (but for a first period assist) and who was on the ice for the game tying goal, having been outfought for the puck on a potential icing call, with the scorer all alone in the slot get named third star of the game?

-- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby get all the ink, it seems, but Jonathan Toews is, for my money, the most underrated player in the NHL. We heard someone before the game liken him to Steve Yzerman. It is not an idle or farfetched comparison.

-- Shaone Morrisonn… five hits, three blocked shots, and he wasn’t on the ice for any of Chicago’s goals. Oh, and he was on the ice with Carlson in that last shift in regulation. A solid, solid game. And he’s been putting together a solid second half, too. Since he was minus-3 in a 7-4 loss to the Lightning on January 12th, he is 1-5-6, plus-16 in 22 games.

-- Mike Knuble will be credited with no points and an “even” game. It doesn’t nearly do justice to the game he had. Eight shot attempts, four on goal, five hits, and a takeaway in just less than 18 minutes. He was making things very tough for Blackhawk defensemen. Keep that in mind for future reference, too. These teams could meet again.

-- The biggest difference between Jason Chimera and Chris Clark is rather simple – speed. Chimera has it and demonstrated it on a few occasions with rushes down the wing. That is a dimension that makes the Caps’ third line more dangerous than it was earlier in the season.

-- 75 hits? They don’t have that many at Soldier Field in November. The Caps were credited with 43 of them (David Steckel with seven). If Ovechkin had hung around, the teams might have broken a hundred.

-- The Caps will be charged with giving up a goal in three shorthanded situations. But we really can’t fault the Caps too much on the goal. A 5-on-3… Toews won a faceoff in the Caps end, then converted a feed while all alone on the doorstep to Jose Theodore’s left. Good teams are supposed to do that.

This game was not an aesthetic masterpiece. The Caps played did not play well in the first 20 minutes, and the Blackhawks were ghastly in the first ten minutes of the third period. The Blackhawks learned a bitter lesson that teams in the East have spent a season learning, that the Caps are not out of games, even when they have to make up multi-goal deficits. The Caps had allowed the first goal 26 times in 68 games and trailed at the intermission in only 13 games heading into this game. But they came back 15 times to win when giving up the first goal and seven times when trailing at the first intermission, both contributing to league leading winning percentage in those items. They improved on both today, to the shock of the Blackhawk faithful.

Now it’s off to take a tour of the Southeast Division – Florida, Tampa Bay, and Carolina – before heading home to meet the Penguins in ten days. It is an opportunity to slam the door on the Eastern Conference race (if they haven’t already) and put distance between themselves and the Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks for the President’s Cup. But this one is worth savoring.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Blackhawks, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

So here we are, a preview of what could be a Stanley Cup final matchup as the Caps visit the rabid confines of United Center to take on the Chicago Blackhawks in a matinee offering. And since the Caps don’t play Chicago often, we bring you another in a series of “Know Your Opponent.” For example, did you know…

-- The name “Chicago” is the French interpretation of the Miami-Illinois word, “shikaakwa,” which means “wild leek.”

-- Chicago is the home of the first “cafeteria” (at the 1893 World’s Columbian Exposition)

-- Chicago is the birthplace of “Cracker Jacks”

-- Chicago is the first city in which the term “jazz” refered to a musical genre.

-- Chicago was the home of the “Lager Beer Riot” (we are not making this up). The Lager Beer Riot took place in Chicago in 1855. It seems that the mayor at the time – Levi Boone (who happened to be a great-nephew of Daniel Boone) – thought it would be a great idea to enact a local ordinance that would close taverns on Sundays and raise the cost of a liquor license, part of a broader anti-immigrant wave sweeping the city. Some tavern owners defied the ordinance, and this resulted in a clash of protesters and police when the perpetrators were brought to court. The riot, such as it was, lasted mere minutes, but the next year Boone was turned out of office, and the ordinance was repealed, thus giving grateful Chicagoans something to drink at hockey games (where, if they have too much, might result in their rushing to the rest room to take a "shikaakwa").

Speaking of hockey games, this one matches two of the most dominant teams in the league, measured by average margin of victory. The Caps lead the league in that measure, beating their opponents by an average of 1.09 goals per game. Chicago is third in the league at 0.79 goals per game. How they accomplish the trick differs. Washington has done it with overpowering offense, scoring almost 19 percent more goals than the second highest scoring team in the league (Vancouver). Here is how dominant the Caps have been. If the Canucks score their average of 3.24 goals per game over their last 15 games and the Caps were to be shutout in all of their last 14 games, Vancouver would barely squeak by the Caps in goals scored, 266-262.

On the other hand, Chicago has done it with balance. They are top-five in both offense and defense, top-ten in both power play and penalty killing, top ten in winning percentage whether scoring first or trailing first. Here is how the overall numbers for the teams compare…

These are two teams that are, in part, mirror images of one another in offensive balance. The Blackhawks have 18 skaters with at least ten points this season; the Caps have 17. Chicago has nine players with at least ten goals; Washington has nine, too. But that balance only extends so far. The Caps have two players with at least 80 points; the Blackhawks have none. Washington has two players with at least 30 goals; Chicago has none. The Caps have two players with more than ten power play goals, the Blackhawks have none. Washington has 13 players at plus-ten or better; Chicago has nine.

But the Blackhawks are the superior defensive team. It is a team that just doesn’t allow many chances. Having allowed only 24.4 shots against per game, that number is more than ten percent better than the next team in line (New Jersey at 27.4 shots allowed per game). By way of comparison, the Caps have allowed 30.9 shots a game (18th in the league). Think this doesn’t matter? Then consider this – for all the talk of the Caps’ goaltending problems, they have a combined save percentage this year that is better than that of the Blackhawks’ netminders (.911 to .902). If the Blackhawks goalies faced as many shots this year as Caps goalies have faced with the same save percentage, their goals against average would be 3.08.

So, what about these Blackhawk goalies? Antti Niemi appears to be the one to get the call for this game after Cristobal Huet played in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia yesterday. Niemi certainly has done his part in giving the Blackhawks a chance to win. He is 18-5-1 this season and has yet to lose consecutive games in regulation (he does have one set of consecutive losses, one coming Gimmick early in the season). In three appearances since the break, he is 1-1-0, 3.17, .880, and he was relieved once, getting a no-decision in a 5-3 loss to the Islanders in which he allowed three goals on 12 shots in 23 minutes. Niemi has never faced the Caps.

Moving out from there, the defense for the Blackhawks is perhaps their strength. As a group, it is deep, solid, and efficient. The best of the lot is Duncan Keith, who seems to be this year’s reason Mike Green will finish second in the Norris Trophy voting. He ranks second points among defensemen (to Green) and is tied for second in goals. He is plus-20, and he is second in the league among defensemen in ice time. He has points in seven of his last eight games (2-7-9).

That Keith doesn’t get more responsibility is the product of the depth the Blackhawks have on the blue line – enough that they could move Cam Barker (a former number three overall draft pick) to Minnesota for Kim Johnsson. In fact, Johnsson is a part of that depth, providing a more veteran presence than the 23-year old Barker could provide. The 33-year old has played in eight games for Chicago since the trade and is 1-2-3, plus-7 in eight games while getting an average of 16:24 of ice time.

Up front, the scoring load has been taken up primarily by the Patricks – Kane and Sharp. Kane leads the team in goals (26) while Sharp is second (21). Kane does not appear to have suffered a letdown from having participated with Team USA in the Olympics. Since the break he is 1-7-9 in six games. But in doing it he is also a minus-1. Teams are scoring when he’s on the ice. He has played only two games against the Caps in his career, recording one point on an assist.

As for Sharp, he had a two-goal game against the Kings last Wednesday, but has been otherwise rather dormant since the break (2-2-4, even, in six games). That is unfortunate for him and for Blackhawks fans, since he was 3-6-9, plus-8 in four games leading up to the break. He has a goal in seven games against the Caps in his career.

Perhaps the best all-around player on the squad, though, is the captain – Jonathan Toews. He was named captain last season, becoming the third youngest captain in the history of the league (only Vincent Lecavalier and Sidney Crosby were named captain of their teams at a younger age). He is third on the team in goals and assists, fourth in points, and second in power play goals. But he also kills penalties (1:36 in PK time per game) and has won more than 57 percent of his draws while leading all Blackhawk forwards in ice time. He might be hitting a wall, though, after participating in the Olympics, where he was arguably the best skater of the tournament. After coming out of the break with two points in each of his first three games (1-5-6), he is scoreless in his last three and is minus-5. He is 1-1-2 in two career games against Washington.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Marian Hossa

Hossa does not rank among the top-100 scorers in the league this season. Of course, that is a product of his missing 24 games to injury this season. His magic number for the moment is “20.” In 43 games so far this year he has 20 goals, 20 assists, and is plus-20. Perhaps most remarkable, he is tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals (five, with Vancouver’s Alexandre Burrows). He is another Olympian (Team Slovakia) who seems not to be the worse for wear in Vancouver, going 3-3-6 in his last five games. He has been an especially sharp thorn in the sides of the Caps – 23-27-50 in 43 career games.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Going into the Olympic break, Semin was 4-3-7 in the last three games. Since the break, he is 1-2-3 in six games. In fact, if the second line for the Caps was Semin, Brendan Morrison, and Brooks Laich, that trio has a total of two goals since the break. In many ways, though, Semin is the catalyst. If he’s on, the whole enterprise works. He can be a puck-handling wizard (but can suffer the odd moment of just leaving the puck behind). He can be an extraordinary passer (except for the moments when you wonder if he wasn’t passing it to the cotton candy vendor), and he can be an efficient sniper (when he isn’t passing up a shot for a higher risk pass). He is an amazing talent – when he’s on he is the best offensive talent on the team. But when he’s not… and the Blackhawks are a team that can make an opponent pay for not being careful with the puck, especially on the power play; they lead the league in shorthanded goals.

Keys:

1. Fire at will. The Blackhawks’ goaltending is not very good, plain and simple. If either Niemi or Huet face a high volume of shots, they will have their adventures. But Chicago has allowed more than 30 shots this year only 10 times in 67 games. They are 6-4-0 in those games.

2. Get a lead. No team in the league has won more games when scoring first than has Chicago (34 wins). And that is a product of Chicago being second in the league in goals scored in the first period (72). The Caps, it is worth noting, lead the league in first period goals (78).

3. Win the turnover battle. Chicago is a top-five team in takeaways at home. The Caps have committed the fifth highest number of giveaways on the road this season. If this pattern plays out, it plays into the hand of Chicago’s game of playing keep-away and not permitting goals to get through to expose their weak underbelly of goaltending.

In the end, this is one of the big down-the-stretch tests that the Caps didn’t have last season. In the last 15 games last season the Caps did not face an opponent of nearly the quality of the Blackhawks. This year they will get Chicago and Pittsburgh (twice) down the stretch. They will not lack for tests. In this one it is another instance of the irresistible force (the Caps’ offense) against the immovable object (the Blackhawks’ defense). The number to watch is shots. If the Caps go north of 30, that will be a really good sign. As the magic 8-ball says…

Caps 3 – Blackhawks 2

A NO-point night: Lightning 3 - Caps 2

Over an 82-game season there are going to be nights when it just isn’t there. No energy, no bounces, nothing. Last night was one of those nights, as the Caps lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 3-2. It was the first loss for the Caps at home in regulation time since they lost to Carolina, 6-3, on December 28th. And it was the first lost at home in regulation under new captain Alex Ovechkin, ending a 14-0-1 run.

Even with the utter lack of energy on the ice and the fact that Tampa Bay simply outworked the Caps diligently in all three zones, it took a couple of odd goals bounces for the Lightning to pull this one out. In the second period, after Tomas Fleischmann and Brendan Bochenski exchanged goals in the first period, Nate Thompson beat Brooks Laich on a faceoff in the Caps’ end. Stephane Veilleux pushed the puck back to Matt Walker at the left point, and Walker rifled it toward the cage. It appeared to hit a skate or a stick on the way through a clot of bodies, where it took off over goalie Semyon Varlamov’s left shouder, hit the crossbar and went in to give the Lightning the lead they would not relinquish.

The third Lightning goal was stranger, and once more Walker was involved. Out of a scrum in the right wing corner to Varlamov’s right, Teddy Purcell came out with the puck and sent it out to Walker at the top of the zone. Walker flicked it toward the Capitals’ net, where Vincent Lecavalier was getting into position to screen the goalie. The puck came in high, and as Lecavalier ducked, it hit something and deflected into the net past Varlamov. The referee immediately waved off the goal, claiming that the puck was deflected in by a high stick. Lecavalier protested that the puck hit his forearm, and the play went to video review. Lecavalier’s version of events was confirmed by the review and the call was overturned, giving the Lightning a 3-1 lead.

Although the Caps would crawl back within a goal midway through the third period on a power play marker by Brooks Laich, spooning in a loose puck from in front of goalie Antero Niittymaki, that was all the Caps could manage as they went quietly over the last nine minutes.

Other stuff…

-- The members of the first line managed three assists (two for Alex Ovechkin, one for Mike Knuble), but no goals. And none of the assists were registered with the line intact (Tomas Fleischmann getting a goal off assists by Ovechkin and Knuble, Laich getting a goal off an Ovechkin helper). The line was broken up in the third period with Alexander Semin replacing Knuble.

-- It was typical of this game that the big guns for both teams were rather silent. Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, and Steve Downie were all held without a point for Tampa Bay, and Lecavalier scored a goal as a result of ducking away from a shot.

-- Brendan Morrison couldn’t buy a break. He had several fine chances, including one where Niittymaki was down, leaving the top half of the net open. Morrison snapped the puck at an opening over Niittymaki’s left pad, but somehow the goalie got his glove out to corral the puck.

-- Ovechkin had seven shot attempts, only one reaching the net. Compare that to 15 shots on goal in his previous two games. He also had only two hits.

-- Speaking of shots, only David Steckel and Matt Bradley did not put one on goal for the Caps. Eric Fehr and Brooks Laich led the team with five apiece.

-- At least they borught Steven Stamkos’ points/goals game streak to an end at 18 and seven, respectively (he was 9-16-25 over the streak).

-- Every Cap who took more than one draw one the majority of their chances, even Fleischmann, who struggled in this area in previous games at center.

-- Being perfect on the power play was nice, but only giving up one opportunity might have been a perverse reflection on the lack of energy. Another way to put it, it was the first time since January 2nd (in a 2-1 loss to Los Angeles) that the Caps did not score an even strength goal.

-- Home town scoring?... Only three Caps -- Scott Walker, Eric Fehr, and Tom Poti -- were not credited with a hit. Even Fleischmann got one (that makes 26 on the year).

-- 12 of the 18 skaters for the Lightning had their 20 blocked shots (seven Caps had a total of ten).

Give Tampa Bay credit. They worked hard, they got a lead, they played smart with it. They clogged the middle of the ice and prevented the Caps from successfully completing many of the cross-ice or stretch passes that spring guys ahead for scoring chances. And when the Caps did have chances, Antero Niittymaki steered them away. It wasn’t the Caps’ best effort of the season, or of the home stand, for that matter. But Tampa Bay thoroughly deserved the win.

Over 82 games, it’s going to happen occasionally. The other team plays better.

March 11th

March 11, 2006... 22-34-7, had just lost to New Jersey to start an eight-game losing streak; they finished 29-41-12

March 11, 2007... 24-33-8, in the midst of an eight-game losing streak (that would reach nine); they finished 28-40-14

March 11, 2008... 32-30-8, lost to Pittsburgh in the last game (made famous by the Nicklas Backstrom own goal that broke a 2-2 tie with 28 seconds left); the Caps would lose only once more the rest of the way in finishing 43-31-8

March 11, 2009... 41-21-6, beat Nashville in overtime the previous night, finished up 9-3-2 to end the season with a franchise record standings points total while going 50-24-8

March 11, 2010... 45-13-9, clinched the Southeast Division for the third consecutive year.

"I don't think anyone came in rejoicing.  It's nice to know we're not gonna finish lower than third [in the conference], but other than that, we have bigger goals."

-- Brooks Laich, on clinching the division

But don't forget how far the Caps have come, either.

Meet the Cousins

Over at CSNWashington.com, Michelle Scalise has a nice interview with Capitals defenseman John Carlson.  It got us to thinking, we have the cousins -- Fearless and Cheerless -- visit us from time to time to get their, uh... unique take on the Caps.  But no one knows much about them.  So we thought we'd borrow a few questions to give folks a glimpse into the lives of the cousins.  It might go something like this...

The Peerless Prognosticator: What was your best hockey memory?

Fearless: “I can remember it as if it was yesterday… it was a bright winter morning, and we tykes were out on the pond playing a rousing game of shinny. I hadn’t played a lot of hockey at that age, but there I was, winding my way along the ice, stick handling here, stick handling there, and just enjoying the moment.”

TPP: Cheerless?

Cheerless: “Watching Fearless fall down a lot.”

TPP: How old were you when you first started playing hockey?

Fearless: "I think I was born with skates on. It’s just a God-given talent. I can’t remember a time when I didn’t skate, but think I might have been three or four when I started playing hockey."

TPP: How about you, Cheerless?

Cheerless: “Oh, not 'til I growed up some. When Fearless was born with skates on, he tore Momma up bad, and she wasn’t going to have any of that no more.”

TPP: If you weren’t playing hockey, what would you be doing?

Fearless:  "I would be studying art in Milan… or maybe architecture in Florence. Definitely something artistic, to give voice to the human experience."

TPP:  And Cheerless?

Cheerless: "Drinkin’ beer."

TPP: OK, guys, steak or sushi?

Fearless: "Sushi... There is nothing that melds sight and taste like expertly prepared sushi."

Cheerless: "Me, too… barbecued."

TPP: What’s your favorite movie?

Fearless: “'The Seven Samurai' – I so love Kirosawa."

Cheerless: “Crime action movies, mostly.”

TPP: You mean like “The Godfather,” or “GoodFellas?”

Cheerless: “No, like ‘Ernest Goes to Jail.’”

TPP: What’s the last song you sang out loud to?

Fearless: "'Recitar!...Vesti la giubba' from Pagliacci"

Cheerless: “Hey, me too!”

TPP: What’s your favorite place to hang out?

Fearless: “I like to spend the day browsing through the art museums on the Mall.”

Cheerless: “Uh, over my belt?”

TPP: You guys are doing pretty well, what with being frequent guests on a famous hockey blog and all... Have you made a big splurge yet?

Fearless: “What blog is that?"

TPP:  Uh, yeah.  Very funny... the question?

Fearless:  "Well, I have to admit a weakness for antique hockey equipment.”

TPP: How about you Cheerless, have you made a big splurge, yet?

Cheerless: “No, but I usually have a big one right after I eat breakfast.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Didn’t we just do this? The Tampa Bay Lightning come back to Verizon Center tonight to close the home stand that they opened for the Caps eight days ago. It has been a successful stand so far for the Caps, who take a 3-0-1 record into the last game of the set. In the four games they outscored their opponents 14-10. If there has been a blot on the record in the last week is it in special teams. Sure, the Caps are 4-14 on the power play in this home stand (28.6%), but they have killed off only nine of 14 shorthanded situations (64.3%).

“Hey, I got an idea”

What’s that, cuz…

“Don’t call them ‘penalties.’”

OK, Cheerless, what would you call them.

“Kenny’s”

Oh?

“Yeah, like that ‘South Park’ kid?... he gets killed every time.”

Fearless, tell me he’s adopted.

"I’m afraid we’re stuck with him…"

As for the game, the Lightning come into this game with the same sort of disarray we described in the prognosto eight days ago. Going 1-1-1 since then isn’t going to give the Lightning much of the jolt they need to climb in the standings. Neither is coming into Verizon Center to visit the Caps in the back half of a back-to-back. The Lightning lost to the Leafs last night in overtime, 4-3. That is not especially good news for the Lightning. Tampa Bay split their first seven back-to-back series this season (going 7-6-1 in the process), but lost both ends of their last back-to-back – at the Islanders (5-4 on February 13th) and at the Rangers (5-2 on Valentine’s Day).

We’ll refer you to the prognosto eight days ago for some of the details about the Lightning. The overall numbers look like this...

They really haven’t changed in the three games since, especially in one important respect. Steven Stamkos has been tearing up the league. In three games since the Caps and Lightning tangled, Stamkos is 4-3-7. And his running mate – Martin St. Louis – has been right there feeding him. The diminutive one is 2-4-6 in those same three games. One thing that will change is that with Mike Smith having played last night, not to mention he is 0-3, 3.80, .883 against the Caps this season, Antero Niittymaki should get the call in goal for the Lightning.

But what about the Caps? The home team has jumped out of the blocks after the Olympic break, going 4-0-1. This after closing the pre-Olympic portion of the season 17-2-2 after losing to the Los Angeles Kings in the first game of 2010. 21-2-3 is, as they say, “not bad.” What distinguishes the five games since the Olympics is that the Caps have given some encouraging signs that they are clamping down in their own end of the ice. In five games they allowed 11 goals, including a shutout against the Rangers. The flip side of that, though, is that of the 11 goals they allowed in the five games, five of them came on the power play. You could say that outscoring opponents 13-6 at even strength is a good thing (and it is). But getting outscored on the power play 5-4 remains a problem, and it is, in our opinion, the team’s Achilles’ heel, more so than simply saying they have iffy goaltending or less-than-top-shelf defensemen.

In these last five games the Caps have had the benefit of scoring balance. Eleven players share in the 17 goals, and 19 skaters have points.

Mike Green leads the team in scoring in the post-Olympic portion of the season at 3-3-6 in five games. Green continues to lead the league’s defensemen in goals, assists, points, power play goals, power play assists, and power play points, while holding down the second spot in plus-minus (behind teammate Jeff Schultz).

Speaking of Schultz, he had the second consecutive “minus” game for only the second time this year when he went minus-1 against Carolina. He has had only ten “minus” games this season. We’ll say it again – we don’t care if he does it by hitting guys, angling guys off the puck or singing sweet lullabies in their ears, but if more good things happen when he’s on the ice than bad things, we’ll take it. Schultz is very much this generation’s Joe Reekie. He doesn’t look great doing it, perhaps (Reekie’s skating was once famously described by goalie Olaf Kolzig as “painful” to watch), but the job gets done at the end of the day.

What might be surprising in these last five games is the comparative silence of Alex Ovechkin. He is second on the team in scoring over this stretch (2-3-5), but except for a pair of goals against the Stars in a 4-3 Gimmick loss, he has been (for him) quiet. Four points in the last two games suggests that, like the warning signs before the Mt. St. Helens eruption, he is about to break out. Given that he is 23-24-47 in 34 career games against the Lightning (including 3-4-7 in four games this year), tonight might be that night.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ryan Malone

Malone missed a game with an undisclosed upper body injury, but he returned to the ice against Toronto last night, playing ten minutes without a point. Stamkos and St. Louis have been shouldering the scoring load lately for the Lightning, with mixed results in wins and losses. The Lightning need to get secondary scoring support, and that points right to players like Malone. Despite dealing with the bumps and bruises that come with this time of year, Malone will have to be an important cog down the stretch if the Lightning are to climb a few notches in the standings. The problem is that Malone has gone 15 games without a goal and doesn’t have one in four games against the Caps this season.

Washington: Semyon Varlamov

OK, kid… you’re up. Varlamov appears likely to get the call, since Jose Theodore was in net against Carolina on Wednesday. Varlamov is 1-0-1 since the break, but he hasn’t looked sharp in doing it, allowing seven goals on 55 shots (.873 save percentage). Five of those seven goals were allowed in the third period (on 21 shots, a .762 save percentage). Varlamov needs to show he can be good for 60, not just for 40 minutes, or else Stamkos will eat him up (he had a third period goal against Varlamov eight days ago), and he’ll be seeing less and less action down the stretch.

Keys:

1. Big Guns, be Top Guns. Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Mike Knuble have four of the 17 goals the Caps have scored (23.5 percent) in the five games since the break. By way of comparison, they scored 33 of the 67 goals the Caps had on their 14-game winning streak (49.3 percent). Somewhere in between would be good (edit: Knuble appears to be a scratch for this game, so Alex?...Nick?...do your stuff).

2. Finish strong. This applies more to defense and goaltending than offense. In the five games since the break, the Caps have allowed only two first period goals. But they have allowed four in the second period and five in the third. Letting teams back into the game isn’t part of the game plan.

3. Number 9…Number 9… Brendan Morrison scored the game-winning goal in the last game before Christmas in a 5-2 win over Buffalo. He has one goal since, against the Islanders on January 26th. He is 1-10-11, plus-3 over his last 29 games. He is 0-2-2 in four games against the Lightning this year.

In the end… well, in the end the Caps are just better.

Caps 5 – Lightning 2

Back of the envelope

Some quick number shuffling got us to thinking... it's not goaltending, it's not the defense (or perhaps at least defensemen) that could spell the undoing of the Caps.  It's penalty-killing (but you probably suspected that).

We took a quick look at the Caps -- the total number of shorthanded situations and the total number of goals allowed -- and compared performance to what it might be if the Caps were performing at the "median" level of shorthanded situations and goals allowed.

The difference is that the Caps total shorthanded situations would be reduced from 265 to 257 overall.  The total humber of goals allowed would be reduced from 57 to 46.  And the penalty killing percentage would improve from 78.5 percent to 82.1 percent.

These aren't large performance changes -- they only get the Caps to the theoretical midpoint among 30 teams.  But the effect on goals allowed per game would be significant.  They would go from 2.76 goals allowed per game through 67 games (tanked 16th in the league) to 2.60 goals allowed per game. They would jump to 10th best, leapfrogging St. Louis, Montreal, the Rangers, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Detroit.  And they would be within a few ticks of Colorado and Vancouver.

When the Caps get into the playoffs, the teams will be uniformly better on both sides of the puck.  It seems a bit of a reach to think that they can outscore their penalty killing problem.  Only Nashville is worse among teams currently in their conference's top-eight.  And if you think of San Jose, Chicago, and Pittsburgh as the principal competition for the Caps in the playoffs, those teams are ranked second, sixth, and ninth in penalty killing, respectively.  The Caps are 25th.

That's the sort of difference that suggests the Caps will score enough to be disappointed.