2010-2011 Previews: Goaltenders -- Semyon Varlamov

Semyon Varlamov

Theme: “Control your own destiny or someone else will.”

-- Jack Welch

Well, it’s time.  After a precocious beginning to his career in which he saw sparse, but effective action (4-0-1, 2.37, .918) in the 2008-2009 regular season; after he became the darling of the hockey media upon going 6-2, 1.51, .945, with two shutouts to open the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs after relieving Jose Theodore in goal; after the effective (if somewhat unfulfilling) 15-4-6 record he posted in an injury-interrupted 2009-2010 regular season; after performing decently (if not particularly outstanding) in last spring’s disappointing loss to the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of the playoffs (again, in relief of Jose Theodore); Semyon Varlamov is now poised to assume his place as the number one goaltender for a Stanley Cup contender.

He will not turn 23 until next April, but the net is now Varlamov's for the taking.  He has the inside track on the number one goaltender position on fellow 2006-draftee Michal Neuvirth; all he has to do is stay upright, in a manner of speaking.

Varlamov injured his groin on the last shot he faced in a 3-0 shutout win over Tampa Bay in early January.  At the time he was 12-1-2, 2.21, .924 and two shutouts in the last four games he played.   You could almost call the engraver to make sure it was spelled “Semyon,” not “Simeon” on the Calder Trophy.  Then…

30 games later, Varlamov was ready to return to the ice, after having suffered a setback from his original injury during a rehabilitation assignment in Hershey.  In his first game back, he gave up six goals on 28 shots in a 6-5 loss to Ottawa and was the subject of this commentary from his coach:

"It was an ugly display.  I thought our defense was horrible and our goaltending was horrible. You're not going to win when you give up six goals and maybe five of them are bad ones and our 'D' can't make a play. It's awful.  I don't think he was ready to play.  I don't know if it was slow, rusty or a combination of both. You can use whatever term you want -- I don't think he was ready to play. He knew he was going to play. He's had 12 days of practice and a game under his belt.  It's his responsibility to be ready.  When you say he's rusty or whatever; that's an excuse, and excuses can't be tolerated.  One goal went right through the legs -- he's been making that save since he was seven years old."

Frankly, he was not that much better in closing the remainder of the regular season.  After that debacle in Ottawa, Varlamov went 3-2-4, 2.76, .896, and allowed at least three goals in six of the nine games in which he played.  Was this an aftermath of the injury, or did it signal a disturbing plateau to his game?  It is hard to get a signal from his playoff performance in relief of Jose Theodore, since he was 3-3, 2.41, .908 in those games.  Not terrible, but not nearly as noteworthy as the start to his playoff season in 2009.

He was a clear rookie-of-the-year candidate in December 2009.  By spring 2010, he was clearly the number two goalie behind Theodore, and only Theodore’s second straight deflating performance gave Varlamov another chance.  Now, Varlamov is presumably healthy and, with no Theodore in the mix, has that inside track.  It is up to him to do something with that opportunity.

Fearless:  Clearly, when he is on, he is on.  And his early-career numbers compare favorably to those of his contemporaries.  For example, at the age of 22 he is 19-4-7, 2.52, .911.  By his 22nd birthday, Marc-Andre Fleury had yet to post in any of his first three seasons a GAA lower than 2.83 or a save percentage better than .906.  Carey Price had a GAA almost a quarter of a goal more than that of Varlamov and a virtually identical save percentage.  Even Cam Ward, having won a Stanley Cup, had a goals-against average well over 3.00 and a save percentage below .900 for his career at age 22.

Cheerless:  OK, cuz, the Fleury one doesn’t really fit; he played a a gawd-awful team.  But while you’re posting those other fancy numbers, ponder this… last year against teams that would make the Eastern Conference playoffs, he was 3-2-2, 3.40, .891.  You excited about that?

In the end…

The number one goaltending job is, at the moment, Varlamov’s to lose.  But given the production of Michal Neuvirth the past two years, lose it he can.  Varlamov has been spectacular at times, but there also have been times when he has been anything but.  This might be dismissed as a product of his youth and comparative inexperience with the North American game.  But truth be told, his production after the Olympic break last season leaves one with lingering questions.

Varlamov was 6-5-4, 2.62, .901 after the break (regular season and playoffs).  These aren’t terrible numbers, but they are quite a drop off from his pre-injury numbers, and 15 games is not an insignificant portion of a season.

It is rare in the broad scope of NHL history that a goalie this young leads his club to a Stanley Cup.  But two things should be noted.  It isn’t impossible, and you don’t have to go back to Patrick Roy in 1986 (20 years old, 48 games of regular season experience) to find examples.  Since the lockout, Cam Ward (21 years old, 28 games of regular season experience) and Antti Niemi (26 years old, 42 games of regular season experience) have accomplished the feat.  Varlamov, if all goes well, could enter the playoffs next spring on the eve of his 23^rd birthday with 80-90 games of regular season experience, plus the 19 post season games under his belt (neither Ward nor Niemi, nor Roy for that matter, had NHL post season experience before embarking on their respective first Stanley Cup runs).

Second, and this goes hand in glove with the first point, the game is different now than perhaps it was before the lockout.  The Patrick Roy-Martin Brodeur-Dominik Hasek level of goalie that dominated the 1990’s and early 2000’s is no longer an absolute requirement for a club to go deep in the playoffs or win the whole thing.  The defense in front of him has to be deep and talented, if recent experience is a guide.  Whether the Caps have that is another matter, but the point here is that Varlamov’s lack of experience does not eliminate him as a potential Cup-winning goaltender this year.

Varlamov doesn’t have to be other-worldly, he merely needs to be very good, very consistent, and very healthy to give himself – and the Caps – their best chance at a title this season.

Projection:

52 games: 30-13-4, 2.48, .918, 2 shutouts

For your mystery reading enjoyment

Sometimes, the Caps read like a Stieg Larsson novel – sparse, but full of intrigue. The latest chapter in the Caps mystery to unfold is what happened to the signing of center Eric Belanger. The erstwhile Caps center, obtained by the club as a rental at the trading deadline last season but since an unrestricted free agent, had been reported as more or less signed-in-secret for the past several weeks. All that delayed a formal announcement was a concurrent trade of a Caps roster player to be consummated.

Well, this morning, Eric Belanger is a Phoenix Coyote, having signed a one-year deal for a reported $750,000, a sum that is $1 million less than he earned last season. Belanger’s agent, Joe Tacopina, was not pleased at the Capitals’ treatment of his client:

"It's just disingenuous. Despite a two-way commitment and requesting Eric to commit to them and take himself out of the [free agent] mix, when they wound up not being able to make the trade several weeks later, they decided they couldn't sign him."

Agent’s spin their tales to put their clients in the best light, and sometimes that means taking on the air of the aggrieved party, whether the circumstances fit the narrative or not. But this certainly has been a bizarre case from start to finish. It isn’t the first time the Caps have been involved in a tale with many twists and turns, however. You don’t even have to go too far back in time to find them. Two seasons ago, there was the matter of Bill Guerin and a “mystery team” to which he was going to be traded. Speculation at the time centered on Washington, and there was no lack of discussion about that potential destination.

Then there was the almost year-long mystery surrounding the eventual destination of exiled center Michael Nylander. He had a role in the Guerin story (mostly about his having to be moved to clear salary cap room to accommodated Guerin’s salary), but he was a candidate to settle in any number of world locales – Switzerland, Russia, Finland, Michigan.

Now we have Eric Belanger, the unmade deal, and the mystery trade that was never made. The Caps have been quite the mystery over the last couple of years. And their close-to-the-vest manner of operating, leaking little, but leaving much to the imagination – no better personified than by the poker-faced general manager George McPhee – makes for interesting reading.

We might call it “The Boy With The Inscrutable Expression.”

2010-2011 Previews: Defensemen -- Mike Green

Mike Green

Theme: “Play your game… play your game…”

-- Herb Brooks

He’s a forward in defenseman’s clothing.  He’s weak in his own end.  He’s a no show for the playoffs.  Say things often enough, and folks might believe them.  And these sorts of things get said often enough about Mike Green.  Perhaps it is the price one pays for being a Norris Trophy-finalist caliber defenseman for the past two years, but not having the same level of success in the post season.  Mike Green has been a point-a-game defenseman over his last 184 regular season games dating back to the 2007-2008 season.  Over that time Green is 58-126-184, plus-71 (a 26-56-82, plus-32 82-game pace).  Unfortunately (except for his critics) he is also 4-15-19, minus-6 in 28 playoff games over that span of time.

It’s tough for anyone in any walk of life to perform comfortably at a high level with people whispering in your ear that you need to do this, that, or the other thing.  It is worse when they’re fairly shouting it in newsprint, television, and new media sites.  Then again, that is the price one pays for being a professional in a high-profile occupation such as NHL hockey player.  And it would seem that the only way Mike Green is going to silence his critics is to do what he does – play his game – not play the game commentators or fans want him to play.

And what game is that?  Well, first and foremost, he is the best offensive defenseman in this era of hockey.  Last year, among defensemen playing in at least 50 games, Green was first in goals, first in assist, first in points, first in power play goals, first in power play assists, first in power play points, first in plus/minus outside his own division (take that Southeast Division haters), second in overall plus/minus, second in game-winning goals.  He was first in goals scored/on ice-per-60 minutes at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca), second in goals on/goals off-per-60-minutes differential at 5-on-5 (to teammate Jeff Schultz), first in the differential in goals scored for on ice to goals scored for off ice-per-60 minutes at 5-on-5, second in penalties drawn, and first in penalties drawn per 60 minutes.

There is not a defenseman in his class at the offensive end of the rink.

But the problem is defense.  For instance…

-  Green doesn’t block shots.  Well, he had more blocked shots per 60 minutes than Duncan Keith. And Shea Weber.

-  Green doesn’t hit.  Well, he had more hits than Robyn Regehr (in six fewer games) and Chris Pronger (in seven fewer games).

-  Green doesn’t play against the opponent’s best.  Well, his quality of competition (behindthenet.ca) was better than that faced by Jay Bouwmeester or Kevin Bieksa.

-  Green is too loosey-goosey with the puck.  Well, he had as many giveaways as Drew Doughty and fewer than Chris Phillips.

-- Green is on the ice for too many goals.  Well, he was on the ice for fewer goals-per-60 minutes at 5-on-5 than Dan Hamhuis, Dion Phaneuf, and Shea Weber.

-  Green doesn’t kill penalties.  Well, he had more shorthanded ice time per game than Doughty, Phaneuf, or Weber.

Is Green going to be a finalist for the mythical Rod Langway Award for best defensive defenseman?  No, but neither does he need a work visa to skate into his own end of the ice.

Green’s problem, as it were, is two-fold.  First, there is the playoff thing.  In his first dip into playoff waters, he was 3-4-7 against the Flyers in a first round loss in 2008.  But the following year against the Rangers and Penguins, he was 1-8-9, minus-5 and was beaten to a pulp by Penguin forecheckers in the second round loss to the eventual Cup champions.  Last spring, he was held to three assists in the first round loss to Montreal.  If you are the best offensive defenseman in the league and don’t generate a lot by way of offense in the playoffs, your reputation is going to take a hit.  But this is a problem that Green can repair, perhaps by channeling his inner Herb Brooks… “play your game…play your game.” 

The second problem is one beyond Green’s immediate ability to solve, although as with anything, winning will help.  That is the continuing meme in the media with respect to his defense, or lack of it in that narrative.  Despite a considerable amount of evidence to the contrary, Green is diminished relative to, say, his Norris Trophy competition because he doesn’t – in that telling – play defense.  It is one thing to be primarily an offensive defenseman, and it is quite another to be a liability as a defender.  Green is the former, not (at least not nearly as often as his critics would contend) the latter.  We are not claiming that Green is the guy you want on the ice in the last minute protecting a one-goal lead, but chances are he had an important part in getting you that lead in the first place.  Perhaps he just needs to play his game and think to himself “$#@% you!” with respect to that media narrative.

Fearless:  3, 12, 56, 73, 76.  Minus-8, minus-10, plus-6, plus-24, plus-39.  What else do you want of a 24-year old defenseman but this kind of improvement in points and plus/minus?  He is a minutes-eater, he is probably top-three in terms of his ability to skate the puck out of trouble (although the end-to-end stuff doesn’t often yield results). By any standard you care to offer, he is an elite defenseman.

Cheerless:  In nine elimination games in the playoffs in his career, Green is 1-4-5, even, with nine shots on goal.  If the Caps are to get over the hump, those numbers have to be better.

In the end…

Green suffers the fact that Norris Trophy voters seem to have found religion with respect to their opinion on who is and who is not worthy.  It is the “in” thing to sing the praises of a defender’s defense.  True, that is pretty much the position description (or at least part of the position title), but somehow it now seems to be worn as a badge of the voter’s sophistication as much as it is an evaluation of the player’s talent when voting on such things. 

But frankly, while a Norris Trophy would probably look nice on the Green mantel, the object of the exercise is a different piece of hardware.  And for the Caps to win a Stanley Cup, Green is going to have to achieve a level of play closer to that he exhibited in the regular season the past three years.  He certainly has it in him.  Here is a stunning line from last season:  8-20-28, plus-34.  That was his record in 24 games against the other seven teams in the Eastern Conference making the playoffs.  He had goals against five of those teams (against the other two – Boston and Pittsburgh – he played in only two games apiece), he had points against all of them, and he was at least plus-3 against all of them. 

Perhaps now having 28 games of playoff experience under his belt, the gap between his regular season and playoff performance will narrow for the better.  That might end up being the most important ingredient to an historic season for the Caps…

…if he just plays his game.

Projection:

77 games, 20-58-78, plus-28

Capitals Rookie Camp 2010 -- Day 2

Day 2… measurement.

Today’s rookie session was another two-parter. The first one involved no pucks and no goalies. It was a measurement session, timing the players in a variety of skating drills. For many of these players, it was a follow-up to similar drills performed at development camp in July – a half-circuit sprint around the ice, a blue-line-to-blue-line sprint from a standing start, and an S-course drill around the faceoff circles. No one blew a gasket (although Anton Gustafsson did take a header in the skate around as the session was starting), Marcus Johansson did, however, almost clip the net on the half-circuit sprint and had to ease off before hitting the timing boxes. Other than that, the session went pretty much without incident.

The second session was a full-on skating session, and it was another high-tempo set of repetitions with one group staring their repetition often before the last group had finished. The coaches are clearly pushing these guys through their drills to test their fitness as much as get the needed work on systems in. The other thing we noticed with the rapid deployment of drills and the quick time approach to performing them is that the players are forced to make decisions – within the construct of the drill – quickly. This was on display in what seemed like a simple enough drill in which the forwards would circle about in their zone, dropping, flipping and passing the puck to one another in close quarters. Caps fans who attend games and arrive early no doubt have seen something like this when Alexander Semin or Tomas Fleischmann or Nicklas Backstrom will skate with one another and circle lazily between the red line and blue line in the pre-game skate dropping passes to one another. Today’s drill was performed at a much higher tempo, and there were instances this morning in which players struggled a bit to find a rhythm or their teammates’ sticks. A lot of pucks went skittering off into the corner or to the boards.

Through two days, you would have to say that the attitude is “business-like.” There isn’t much by way of joshing around, and coaches are quick to take players aside and point out things that need work. Bruce Boudreau seemed especially displeased with one effort on the part of Josh Godfrey, who didn’t force action closely or quickly enough for Boudreau’s liking. His mantra was “move your feet.” That seemed to be something all of the players could mind.

Tomorrow is the rookie camp scrimmage, then the Caps/Flyers rookie game on Thursday. Time flies when you’re having camp.

2010-2011 Previews: Defensemen -- Tom Poti

Tom Poti

Theme: "The years teach much which the days never knew."

-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Tom Poti will enter the 2010-2011 season with more than twice as many games of NHL regular season experience as that of any other Caps defenseman.  He and John Erskine are the only Caps defensemen who played in the NHL prior to the lockout.  When he took the ice for the first time for the Edmonton Oilers on October 10, 1998, John Carlson was eight years old. 

In a sense, he is the glue that holds the Caps defense together.  He led the group in shifts taken per game last season and was second (to Mike Green) in total ice time per game.  He led all Caps defensemen in penalty killing ice time per game and was the only Caps defenseman other than Mike Green (who played the entire season in Washington) who had more than one minute of power play ice time per game.  He was second in scoring among Caps defensemen, but he also was second in blocked shots and takeaways.

He had a quite productive road record for the Caps last season, going 2-11-13, plus-19 in 34 games away from Verizon Center.  And, he finished well.  After going 0-8-8, plus-4 in the first three months of the season, he was 4-12-16, plus-22 in 38 games in the 2010 portion of the 2009-2010 season.  And, in keeping with the “defense” notion of his position, he was tied for 21^st among defensemen playing in at least 50 games in lowest goals scored against/on ice-per 60 minutes (from behindthenet.ca).  Given that he was in the top 25 percent in terms of quality of competition faced, Poti would appear to have shed the reputation he once had of being unfamiliar with his own end of the ice.

Poti did, however, have a somewhat curious record against playoff teams last year.  In 23 games against the other seven teams in the East that would make the playoffs, he was 0-11-11, plus-2.  Not especially noteworthy statistics on their own.  But he was 0-7-7, minus-5 in 19 games against six of those teams.  The exception was his record against Boston: 0-4-4, plus-7 in four games.  Perhaps it was merely coincidental that Poti is also a native of Worcester, MA.

And that provides a segue into the playoffs. Poti had not been recognized as much of a playoff performer.  In his first six playoff seasons he compiled a 0-8-8, minus-9 record in 31 games, the last season of which found him sitting in the penalty box as the series clinching goal was scored by Philadelphia against the Caps in 2008 (Poti had been sent off for tripping R.J. Umberger).  But over the last two years, Poti has gone 2-9-11, plus-17 in 20 post season games.  He has been the best Caps defenseman in each of the last two post-seasons.

All that makes the injury he sustained in the last minute of Game 6 of last spring’s playoff series against Montreal that much more difficult to take.  His absence in Game 7 of that series should not have mattered as much as it did, but given the way the series unfolded, it was huge.

Fearless:  The Caps seem to have been as good for him as he has been good for the Caps.  He is plus-50 in his career, plus-38 in his three years with the Caps (not to mention plus-16 in three playoff seasons).  He is not the scorer he once was – Mike Green does the heavy lifting in that regard – but he is, for the moment, the best Caps two-way defenseman.

Cheerless:  OK, cuz, so Poti is the veteran leader on the defense, right?  Alright, how many playoff series have his teams won?  His teams’ record is 1-8 in playoff series.  Every other team leader in games for the top four on defense among the contenders in the East (Colin White for New Jersey, Chris Pronger in Philadelphia, and Brooks Orpik for Pittsburgh) have a Stanley Cup on their resumes.

In the end…

Poti suffered a gruesome injury in Game 6 of last spring’s first round playoff series against Montreal.  After suffering that injury, Coach Bruce Boudreau said of him, “Tom Poti has been great.  You lose one of your best, [most] experienced players. It's a tough thing…”   It was not idle praise.  Poti was on the ice for four of the 18 goals scored by Montreal in the first six games, but only one of those was at even strength and that one in the first minute of Game 2.  He was the Caps’ best defenseman in the series.

Now, the questions are two.  First, has Poti recovered completely from the eye injury he sustained last spring?  The answer to this question is important in two contexts.  It is important in terms of his role and responsibility on this team.  Poti is the best two-way defenseman on this team at the moment, with all apologies to Mike Green’s underrated defense and John Carlson’s lack of NHL experience.  If there are any lingering effects of his injury, it will have impacts at both ends of the ice.  And that gets to the other context – experience on the defense.  The Caps do not have the depth of experience to be able to fill in the blanks if Poti gets off to an unproductive start. 

The second question is a bit more long term as far as the season goes.  The true measure of Poti’s contribution is likely to be, as it will be for the rest of the Caps, in the post season.  Was last year’s impressive play against Montreal the product of talent and accumulated experience?  Or, was it a fluke?  Given how he has performed in the last two post-seasons, we are not inclined to think it a fluke, and that makes Poti a very important part of the Caps’ march to the post-season and beyond.

Projection:

73 games, 4-18-22, plus-19

Capitals Rookie Camp 2010 -- Day 1

And so it begins.  The 2010-2011 hockey season got off to a spirited start today as the Capitals held their first on-ice day of rookie camp, and if there was a theme today it was “skate, skate, and skate some more.”  The first day of a Bruce Boudreau rookie camp seems like a test of sorts, evaluating just how in-shape the kids are and challenging the youngsters to push through what fatigue they have as they get their skating legs under them.

It wasn’t an especially noteworthy day in terms of any one player standing out (although the coaches, with their fine eye for technical detail, no doubt have their early opinions).  It wasn’t especially noteworthy in the stands, either, as the combination of a 10:00 Sunday start and it being Opening Day of the NFL season (sorry, we don’t count Thursday games) kept the crowd light.  There were a couple of on-ice surprises early, though.  Goaltender Braden Holtby was on hand for this session, despite his being a “veteran” in this setting.  He and the other three goalies on hand – the others being Philipp Grubauer, Jared DeMichiel, and Brandon Anderson – were on the ice before the skaters came on, taking shots from coaches Mark French and Troy Mann.  Personally, we just think Holtby wanted to show off his new mask…

The other surprise was Zach Miskovic taking the ice for a prolonged skating session.  Miskovic injured his knee in development camp in July and had been listed as “week-to-week.”  Even if he doesn’t take the ice for drills this week or next, it was good to see him out there testing his wheels.

What isn’t surprising is the roster.  You will find a relative few number of “first timers” at this camp, and in fact there is a substantial number of players here that have been through the drills in past years.  In addition to Kugryshev, players such as Trevor Bruess, Anton Gustafsson, Jake Hauswirth, Cody Eakin, Joe Finley, Josh Godfrey, and Braden Holtby are “veterans” of this phase of development.

Today’s session was broken into two parts, and there seemed to be a marked difference in energy level from the first to the second.  In the second, the high-tempo of the opening round seemed to be taking its toll on some players.  That was merely prelude to the entertainment portion of the day.  Call them “herbies,” bag skates,” “sprints into the maw of hell,” it is the annual rite of September that informs the rookies, “this is for real.”  We have our own soft spot for Dmitry Kugryshev, who in his last two experiences on opening day at Kettler found himself in a four point stance, his face buried in the ice (we’d last about six strides before collapsing in a viscous puddle of goo).  We wondered if he would go for the trifecta today.  But give the kid credit, he remained upright (sort of) throughout the drill, which is better than a few of this teammates.  More than a couple found themselves in the prone position, including young Mr. Grubauer, but one has to give him a break with his hauling that equipment around for a couple of hours – plus the pre-skate drills.

Two more days of practice, followed by a Wednesday scrimmage, before the Caps rookies take on the Flyers’ rookies on Thursday.  There is a lot of stuff to cover in a short few hours of hands-on on-ice time before the vets take over the rink next Saturday.  In the meantime...

2010-2011 Previews: Defensemen -- Jeff Schultz

Jeff Schultz

Theme: "Don't worry when you are not recognized, but strive to be worthy of recognition."

-- Abraham Lincoln

Plus-50. Alex Ovechkin didn’t do it, Nicklas Backstrom didn’t do it, Mike Green didn’t so it. Nicklas Lidstrom? No. Chris Pronger? Nope. Duncan Keith? Nuh-uh.

Say what you will against the maligned statistic, but plus-minus is an indicator that more good things than bad things happened when a player is in “plus” territory. And Jeff Schultz had a better ratio of good things happening to bad things than any player in the league last year. And while one might look at his record against Southeast Division opponents (2-7-9, plus-23 in 21 games) and say the numbers were padded, consider that in 26 games against Eastern Conference teams that would make the playoffs, Schultz was 1-8-9, plus-25.

One might argue it was the team; one might argue it was his playing partner (usually Mike Green), but among defensemen palying at least 50 games Schultz had the best differential of goals scored on ice-to-goals scored off ice per 60 minutes (numbers from behindthenet.ca) in all the NHL. And it was not close. Schultz’ differential of plus-2.62 was more than a half a goal better than Green, who was second in the league – more than 25 percent better. He had the sixth lowest goals scored/on ice per 60 minutes in the league.

Although Schultz could not claim to have faced the highest quality of competition in putting up those numbers – he was tied for 61st among 176 defensemen playing at least 50 games – the defenseman he happened to be tied with was Drew Doughty, and Schultz’ goals against/on per 60 minutes was almost a third of a goal better.

He was consistent as well – only 11 games in minus territory and only once as bad as a minus-2. 15 times he was at least plus-2 and had two plus-5 games. He almost doubled his offensive output from the previous season (23 points from 12 in 2008-2009) and dressed for the highest number of game in his brief career (73).

That’s the good news. Last season, he lasted for an entire round of post season play (after dressing for a total of three games the previous two post seasons), dressing in all seven games of the Montreal series. But despite averaging almost 20 minutes a game, he managed a single assist and was minus-1 for the series. What is worse, he was on the ice for half of the 20 goals Montreal scored in the series (six at even strength, four while shorthanded).

Last season the 11 defensemen who dressed for the Caps break down into three groups as far as hits are concerned – Shaone Morrisonn, John Erskine, and Milan Jurcina are the heaviest hitting group (all with at least six hits per 60 minutes played); Tyler Sloan, John Carlson, Mike Green, and Brian Pothier in the middle group (four to six hits per 60 minutes); and Tom Poti, Joe Corvo, Karl Alzner, and Jeff Schultz in the lightest hitting group. The oddest part about this, though, isn’t that Schultz is in the third group, but that he had almost four times as many hits-per-60 minutes as Tom Poti (2.62 – 0.76). This isn’t a statement on Poti’s ability as a defenseman, but more one that Schultz’ perceived reluctance to hit opponents might be a bit overdone by Caps Nation.

Schultz made up for this alleged shortcoming in other ways. He did finish fourth on the club in blocked shots-per-60 minutes (and the most among Caps defensemen playing more than 50 games). He also had the second lowest total of giveaways-per-60 minutes among those defensemen playing more than 50 games.

Fearless: It’s one thing for a player to be on the plus side in wins – Schultz was plus-48 in 49 wins. But he was a plus-2 in the 24 losses he played in. None of the Young Guns can say that for the Caps, and only one other defenseman could make that claim (Milan Jurcina, plus-1 in eight losses).

Cheerless: As long as you’re on the plus/minus kick, cuz, Schultz had the worst number (minus-3) of all Caps defensemen in the playoffs playing in Verizon Center. He had the worst number of any Caps skater in the playoffs at home. Only eight of 115 defensemen in the playoffs had a worse plus/minus at home than Schultz.  In the regular season he ranked 119th in hits, 45th in blocked shots, and 145th in takeaways among defensemen. He’s not quite an all-star, yet, cuz.


In the end…

Schultz is probably best suited to be a second-pair defenseman, but given the state of the Caps and how their defense is put together at the moment, he seems likely to be paired with Mike Green once more on the top twosome. Just as the Caps are not likely to hit the 121-point mark again, it is a stretch to think Schultz will replicate his plus-50 from last year. That is not to say he won’t be better. Schultz is still only 24 and has fewer than 250 games of experience. One could make the case that he has improved, perhaps not year-to-year, but certainly he has come a long way from his rookie year in 2006-2007. It is reasonable to expect he take another step forward this year.

That next step he clearly has to take is not to disappear in the playoffs. He has only ten playoff games under his belt, and none of them could be considered memorable, at least not in a good way. One assist and a minus-4 in those games isn’t going to go far in building his reputation as a reliable post-season defenseman, but then again, there are only those ten playoff games of experience, part of a problem that this defense has as a whole.

Schultz is likely to once more be solid, dependable, and not especially flashy. Twenty minutes or so a night, an even or plus player on a nightly basis, probably on ice for an even strength goal every other game (approximately his average last season). It is the kind of play that doesn’t make any one game memorable (unless you are scoring goals from 175 feet), but over an 82-game schedule it will make for a solid season. On a team with enough flash, thank you very much, that steadiness is just fine.

Schultz does not inspire moderate opinions about his play. He is either a player who uses his position and reach effectively, or he is a player who fails to take advantage of his size to play a more punishing game. Odd that a player who seems more effective the less he is noticed inspires such divergent opinions on his play. But that seems to be his lot in life as an NHL player. The only thing that will silence the naysayers, at least this season, is the same thing that any of the other Caps might need to squelch the doubters – a Stanley Cup. Tall order, but then again, Schultz is a tall fellow.

Projection:

74 games, 3-19-22, +27

2010-2011 Previews: Defensemen -- Tyler Sloan

Tyler Sloan

Theme: “On Halloween, the parents sent their kids out looking like me.”

Tyler Sloan is the Rodney Dangerfield among Caps defensemen. Here is a guy who was undrafted and hooked on with three teams by signing free agent contracts (Columbus in 2000, Hershey in 2007, and the Caps in 2008). He didn’t see his first NHL action until he was 27 years old, and in the first period of his first game drew a nine minute power play for the Caps. He hung on to play 26 games that first year and another two in the playoffs in which he averaged more than 18 minutes of ice time and was a plus-1. Last year he had 40 games worth of work and another two in the playoffs, and although he backed up a step or two in his results, he has to get marks for being an indomitable sort. You cannot say he hasn’t worked hard to get his turn in the show.

Unfortunately, the team seems to have eclipsed him in terms of talent. He is the seventh man on a (currently) seven-man defensive squad, and if the Caps manage to add a defenseman between now and the trading deadline, he’s almost a certainty to be moved off the parent roster. Of the seven defensemen on the club (all of whom are returning from last year), Sloan finished fourth in points. That would be nice, but six points isn’t a lot, given that the two players with whom he was tied – Karl Alzner and John Erskine – were a rookie playing in 21 games and a defensive defenseman, respectively. He was one of only two defensemen who finished the year on the minus side of the ledger (Alzner). He had the worst giveaway/takeaway roster on the squad. He had the lowest Corsi value among the defensemen and the second worst Corsi-on ice/Corsi-off ice differential (Alzner). He had the second lowest GVT value, barely distinguishable from that of Karl Alzner (numbers from behindthenet.ca). He might get marks for his having fought hard to earn an NHL sweater, but the numbers are working against him being a regular, or perhaps even a regular substitute.

What 2010-2011 has in store for Sloan is, it would seem, entirely a product of the personnel management behavior of the front office. One has to wonder if the Caps are serious in heading into this season with this seven-man group as its defense, especially given that the defensive replacements in Hershey are either too similar to Sloan in productive potential or in need of additional seasoning. That thinking leads one to believe that sometime – and we would think it sooner rather than later – the Caps are going to make some changes that will impact the defense.


Fearless: Well, cousin, you could say that Sloan is a road warrior. Last year he was 2-3-5, plus-6 in 22 road games. He was 1-3-4, plus-1 in 14 road games the previous season.


Cheerless: Uh-huh… 0-1-1, minus-7 in 18 games last year and 0-1-1, plus-3 in 12 games the year before in Verizon Center. You wanna bet he orders take out instead of cooking, too?

In the end…

Given where he started on his journey to the NHL, you really want to root for a guy like Tyler Sloan. He certainly works hard on the ice, but the question is whether his “skill” is up to his “will.” Sloan might be a passable seventh defenseman on this club but for the fact that there is either a rather significant drop off in production and durability (John Erskine) or a fair amount of uncertainty (Karl Alzner) after the top four. There is too much of a “soft underbelly” question about the defense after the top four to be more than a little uncomfortable with the bottom three, unless you have a 100 percent reliable crystal ball that says Alzner is going to step in and do wonders.

The Caps of five years ago might have employed Sloan for 60-plus games. That team had a just-getting-his-feet-wet Mike Green, Mathieu Biron, Ivan Majesky, and Bryan Muir, among others. He would have in the competitive mix on that club. But this team has come too far since then, certainly further than perhaps Sloan’s skill set will take him. He could be a 50-60-game defenseman in the NHL with the right club. That club, however, is probably not the Capitals. Some might rejoice in that; we are not among them. To the extent he sees playing time, it is likely to be limited, except in the event of injuries.

Projection:

16 games, 1-2-3, -3