Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Steve Oleksy

Steve Oleksy

“Diligence is the mother of good luck.”

-- Benjamin Franklin

He does not have a fancy hockey pedigree, having grown up north of Detroit, Michigan. He did not attend a hockey powerhouse, his Lake Superior State Lakers skating to a 42-59-18 record in his three years at LSSU.  He was not drafted, catching on with the Las Vegas Wranglers in the ECHL.  Then it was the Toledo Walleye, followed by the Port Huron Icehawks and the Idaho Steeheads, which was then followed up by stints in Lake Erie with the Monsters, back to Idaho with the Steelheads, and then to Bridgeport with the Sound Tigers.

Oleksy played 50 games in Bridgeport in the 2011-2012 AHL season, then was signed as a free agent by the Hershey Bears for the 2012-2013 season.  He made an impression.  In 55 games with the Bears he displayed a combination of the occasional offensive contribution (2-12-14, plus-5) and the frequent physical presence (151 penalty minutes, 52 of which were earned against the archrival Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins).  When Mike Green went out of the lineup with a recurrence of groin problems, Oleksy was called up.    

He was never sent back down.  Playing the last 28 games of the regular season for the Caps, Oleksy tied for third among Caps defensemen in points (nine), tied for third in plus-minus, was second in penalty minutes (33), and was third in hits (58).  And, in the “announcing his presence with authority” file, he recorded an assist in his first NHL game, two more in his second game, then his first NHL goal in his fourth contest on his way to a 1-8-9, plus-9 finish.

There was something of a good luck charm quality to Oleksy’s play.  Most of Oleksy’s ice time at 5-on-5 was spent with Jack Hillen (30.7 percent) and Karl Alzner (24.9 percent).  Both of these players realized better GF20 (goals scored by team per 20 minutes of ice time) and GA20 (goals scored against per 20 minutes of ice time) when paired with Oleksy than when playing apart from him (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

There was a certain “adrenaline rush” aspect to his game, too.  In his first 15 games he was 1-5-6, plus-4, 17 shots on goal, and 29 penalty minutes, 15 of them coming in three fights.  In his last 13 regular season games he was 0-3-3, plus-5, eight shots on goal, and four penalty minutes. More disciplined, or did the rush wear off?

Odd Oleksy Stat… The Caps were 11-3-0 in games in which Oleksy did not register a shot on goal, 8-5-1 in games in which he did (only six of those wins coming in regulation).

Game to Remember… March 14^th vs. Carolina.  The Caps were in a tough spot on a mid-March night in Raleigh.  Mike Green was out with a groin injury.  Tom Poti was playing in just his third game after missing the better part of two seasons to injury.  Tomas Kundratek would play only 3:14 in this game before goingout with a leg injury.  Guys had to step up on the blue line.  Oleksy did.  He logged 27:55 in ice time (his high for the season, the game after getting just 11:50 in ice time against these same Hurricanes), and while he did not record a point, he had two shots on goal, two hits, a takeaway, and four blocked shots.  More important, Carolina did not score a goal when he was on the ice.  The Caps won, 3-2.

Game to Forget… March 16^th vs. Boston.  Wouldn’t you know it, in his next game, Oleksy was the guy burned whenever he was on the ice.  The Caps were missing Mike Green and Tomas Kundratek on the blue line, so Oleksy got a ton of ice time again (24:01).  And he was more active in the offensive end than in his previous game – eight shot attempts, four of them on goal.  But he was on ice for Boston’s first three goals, and on each of them, he was the closest Capital defenseman to the goal scorer.  It was a 4-1 win for the Bruins.

Post Season… The Caps used only six defensemen in the post-season, and as one might expect, Oleksy had the lowest average ice time (15:09 per game).  Then again, only Karl Alzner was on ice for fewer even strength goals (two) than Oleksy (three).  But all of them came in Capital losses, two of them game-winners, one of them when he got lost at the top of the circle and could not get back into the play before Derek Stepan’s game-winner in Game 4, and again in Game 6 when Derick Brassard’s slap shot hit his arm on the way through, the puck angling under goalie Braden Holtby’s glove for the game’s only goal.

In the end…

There is a certain ambivalence that attaches to Oleksy’s season.  On the one hand, his is quite a story – an undrafted, unheralded player (he doesn’t have his own player page at tsn.ca, despite playing 28 games this season, and neither his NHL.com page nor his hockey-reference.com page have any of his history other than with the Caps) who is not exactly a youngster (27 years old), getting his shot after years of hard work and performing admirably.  On the other hand, is he a top-six defenseman, not just on this team, but one that aspires to a championship?  That is the uncertainty that comes from a 28-game stint after four years split among three different minor leagues (IHL, ECHL, and AHL).  One is left to wonder if he has reached his upside.  But that is a matter to ponder in September’s training camp.  His 2013 season has to be considered a pleasant surprise, perhaps even lucky.  But that luck comes after a lot of hard, diligent work.

Grade: B

Photo: Paul Bereswill/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Tomas Kundratek

Tomas Kundratek

"If you do not expect the unexpected you will not find it, for it is not to be reached by search or trail."

-- Heraclitus

Raise your hand if you knew in January that Washington Capitals defenseman Tomas Kundratek would record points at an 82-game pace that would be among his best seasons at any level of hockey.  Here was a fellow who was the return package in a trade of “prospects” back in 2011.  We use the quotation marks for “prospects” advisedly, considering that a trade of a disappointing youngster (Francois Bouchard) for what Caps fans might have been forgiven for thinking was little more than a warm body was not among the most newsworthy deals on the NHL ticker in November of 2011.

But here was a player who methodically rose through the tiers of Czech hockey, was drafted by the New York Rangers in the third round of the 2008 entry draft, then came to North America in 2008 to skate for the Medicine Hat Tigers in Canadian juniors.  Kundratek dutifully spent two years in Medicine Hat, then joined the Connecticut Whale in the American Hockey League.  It was in his second year in Connecticut that he got the call – the trade to the Capitals’ organization – upon which he reported to Hershey to skate with the Bears for the remainder of the 2011-2012 season.  During that season he was brought up for a cup o’ coffee – five games – with the Caps.

Fans might not have seen the trail, but Kundratek was following it with diligence. 

The diligence was rewarded, even if it was the product of misfortune.  When Jack Hillen was injured in the Caps’ season opener, Kundratek was recalled from Hershey to replace him.  At the time of his recall Kundratek had already played in 41 games for the Bears, the product of the NHL’s late start to the 2013 season.  And those 41 games presented a mixed case for his promotion.  On the one hand he was 13-13-26 in those games.  On the other hand, he was a minus-13, including a minus-15 during a November in which the Bears went 6-7-0.

His elevation did not do much for his game.  In his first eight games as Hillen’s replacement he was 0-0-0, minus-5.  Then, against Toronto on February 5^th, he recorded an assist – his first NHL point.  He recorded another assist in his next game against Pittsburgh.  It was the start of a stretch in which he would record four points (all assists) over five games.  He would go on to go 1-6-7, plus-3 over a 12-game stretch after his eight-game streak without a point to start his season. 

At that point, Kundratek went dormant, failing to record a point in any of his next four games.  The last of those, however, showed a spark that perhaps he was coming out of the slump.  Although he did not record a point in a 4-0 loss to Carolina on March 12^th, he did post a team high in shot attempts (eight) and shots on goal (five) in a career high 24:13 of ice time. 

That might have been the high point.  In his next game, also against the Hurricanes, Kundratek got tangled up with Jeff Skinner on his fourth shift of the first period.  He left the contest with a leg injury, his last appearance with the Caps for the 2013 season.

It is hard to remember that Kundratek played in 25 games.  Part of that is the fact that he spent more 5-on-5 ice time with Jeff Schultz – another of the lost brigade of defensemen – than he did with any Caps defenseman except Karl Alzner.  And what a difference a partner makes.  Consider the goals against at 5-on-5.  With Alzner, the GA20 (from stats.hockeyanalysis.com) was 0.564.  When apart from Alzner, it jumped to 1.093.  A good part of that, no doubt, was his pairing with Schultz for large chunks of ice time.  Kundratek’s GA20 with Schultz was 1.715, while it was only 0.504 when not paired with Schultz.  Those are the numbers of an in-season rookie call up.

Odd Kundratek Stat… In nine games against Southeast Division teams, Kundratek was 0-2-2, minus-1, but the Caps went 7-2-0.  In 16 games against other Eastern Conference teams Kundratek was 1-4-5, minus-4, but the Caps were 4-11-1.

Game to Remember… March 5^th vs. Boston.  Eric Fehr got the goal – a “play of the year” candidate, in fact.  But Kundratek got things started on that play, feeding Fehr skating out of the Caps’ zone, who then worked a give-and-go with Nicklas Backstrom before roofing the puck while falling to the ice for the game-winner.  Kundratek got a goal of his own in that game, one that got the Caps to within 3-2 heading into the second intermission.  He had six shot attempts (one on goal for a score), a hit, a takeaway, and a blocked shot to go with his plus-2 in 23 minutes of ice time.  It was his first and, to date, only two-point game in his brief career.

Game to Forget… March 14^th vs. Carolina.  Live by the sword, die by it.  He came to the Caps as a result of an injury, and his season ended for the Caps to an injury he sustained just 7:49 into this game.

Post Season… Kundratek was 0-1-1, minus-1 in five games with Hershey.  He did not participate in Washington’s first round loss to the New York Rangers.

In the end… Tomas Kundratek had one of those seasons that fans will think of as being a stepping stone to bigger things, and it might be that.  But on the other hand, he benefited mightily from his pairing with Karl Alzner and had less success with other defensive partners.  There is also the fact that 30 games of NHL experience (25 of them this year) is not a lot to go on when making judgments about his potential for future production. 

Kundratek is a restricted free agent with the end of the 2013 season, and the Caps have a fair number of guys under contract for the next season or two who might be third-pair types at the moment – John Erskine, Jack Hillen, Steve Oleksy, Cameron Schilling, Nate Schmidt, and Dmitry Orlov among them.  Is is hard to know where Kundratek falls out in this situation, but one thing he has done is followed a straight and true path to his opportunity in the NHL.  One might not expect him to break through, but then again…

Grade: B-

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Jack Hillen

Jack Hillen

"Each man delights in the work that suits him best."

-- Homer

If you stopped a Washington Capitals fan on the street and asked him or her, “name six Capitals defensemen,” you might hear the name “Jack Hillen,” but if you did, it would not be the first one…or the second…or perhaps even the third.

Those same Caps fans might not know that Hillen finished third among Caps defensemen in goals and points, finished third in plus-minus, was one of only two Capital defensemen with game-winning goals, and had the second best shooting percentage among defensemen.  He did it in only 23 games.  Seven Capital defensemen played in more games in the 2013 season.

What is perhaps more impressive about Hillen’s numbers is that he achieved them largely in the last ten games in which he appeared in the regular season.  His season got off to something less than an auspicious start when he lasted only 3:29 in the season opener, suffering a shoulder injury courtesy of a hit from Tampa Bay’s Vincent Lecavalier.  He missed the Caps’ next 25 games, then managed to record only one assist in 12 games after his return.

In his last ten games of the regular season, though, Hillen went 3-5-8, plus-8, while averaging 16 minutes of ice time per game.  Those last ten games reflected a change in pairings for Hillen.  Over the course of the season Hillen spent 90 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time split primarily between two players – John Carlson (53 percent) and Steve Oleksy (37 percent).  It was with Oleksy that Hillen scored all three of his goals and recorded half of his six assists for the season.

What is perhaps surprising is that among Capital defensemen having played in more than five games, Hillen had by far the best goals against/on ice per game, and only John Erskine had a better goals against/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.  He had more advantageous zone starts (only Tomas Kundratek had a higher percentage of offensive zone starts) and benefited from both better quality of teammates and lesser quality of competition (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  These factors moderate the defensive statistics somewhat, but Hillen could be credited with having taking advantage of those situations.

The “Southeast Division” effect seemed less pronounced with Hillen than with many of his teammates.  That might be as much a function of his missing 25 of the season’s first 26 games, when the Caps struggled (11-14-1 overall, 4-11-1 outside the Southeast Division).  Nevertheless, Hillen was 1-3-4, plus-7, in nine games against the Southeast and 2-3-5, plus-2, in 14 games against other Eastern Conference teams.

Odd Hillen Stat… The Caps were 16-5-2 in games in which Hillen appeared in the 2013 season.  He averaged almost three more minutes of ice time per game in wins (18:31) than he did in losses (15:32).

Game to Remember… April 9^th vs. Montreal.  In what amounted to a “statement” game for the Caps – the Caps had gone 22 straight games without winning a game against a playoff qualifier in regulation time – Hillen assisted on the go-ahead goal and scored the game-winner himself in the Caps’ 3-2 win over the Canadiens at Bell Centre.  The two points for Hillen gave him four over two games, the first time he accomplished that feat in his career.

Game to Forget… January 19^th vs. Tampa Bay.  Sure, it was a modest contract by free agency standards – a one-year deal for $650,000 – but there is still the desire to impress one’s new employers that they are getting value for their dollar.  Hillen lasted six shifts in his first game.  His first shift ended after 13 seconds when the Lightning took a penalty, and the power play unit came on for the Caps.  His second shift ended after 44 seconds when Vincent Lecavalier scored for the Lightning to make the score 2-1, Tampa Bay.  His fifth shift lasted four seconds when the Lightning took another penalty, and his sixth – and last shift for the evening – lasted 30 seconds until Lecavalier deposited Hillen into the boards, ending his night and putting him out for the next 25 games.

Post Season… In a sense the Capitals were exposed through Hillen’s production in their seven-game series against the Rangers.  He is not a shutdown defenseman, but rather one who can chip in support minutes against lesser competition among his team’s opponents and who can contribute on the offensive end.  Against the Rangers, Hillen contributed little offense – one assist and only seven shots on goal.  In one of the stranger playoff facts, Hillen was on ice for five goals against in the series, all of them in losses and three of them being game-winning goals by the Rangers.  The depth that Hillen seemed to provide in the regular season was not as evident in the series against New York.

In the end…

It is hard to know what to make of Hillen’s year.  Losing more than the first half of the season to injury while trying to find a place on a new team with a new coach is not the easiest way to make a living, but Hillen produced in the second half, and especially down the stretch when his health returned.  The post-season is troubling, though.  It raises the question whether the Capitals have sufficient depth on defense.  Not the sort of depth that a 7/8 defenseman can provide in the event of injury, but whether the Caps have it on the three skating pairs.  Injury did affect the mix, primarily Dmitry Orlov losing almost the entire season to the effects of a concussion.  But while a third pair of Jack Hillen and Steve Oleksy makes a pretty good regular season story, in the merciless cauldron of playoff hockey, it can be – and was – exposed just enough to help send the Capitals packing after the first round.

Grade: B-

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Mike Green

Mike Green

"Happiness is brief. It will not stay. God batters at its sails."

-- Euripides

 
Over the last five years the NHL scheduled 376 regular season games per team.  Mike Green played in 259 of them – 69 percent.  That includes the 35 games he played of a 48-game season in 2013 – 73 percent.  Those 35 games played in 2013 did not prevent Green from leading all NHL defensemen in goals scored (12), his best goals-per-game pace since he recorded 31 goals in 68 games during his Norris Trophy-nomination season in 2008-2009.

But as much as the goals, it was the missed time – again – due to “lower body injury” issues. Green missed 13 games this season to those issues, likely an extension of the groin injury issues that have been the primary reason for his missing 55 of the last 116 regular season games played by the Washington Capitals.

One wonders what wonders a healthy Green could do for the Caps.  In the 13 games he missed, the team was 6-7-0 and averaged 2.69 goals scored per game.  In the 35 games in which Green appeared the team was 21-11-3 and averaged 3.17 goals per game.  13 games of a decent, but not extraordinary offensive production (2.69 goals per game would have finished 11^th in the league in scoring offense), 35 games of superior production (3.17 goals per game would have finished second).

And nowhere was Green’s absence more keenly felt than on the power play.  In the 13 games Green missed the Caps were 10-for-44 with the man advantage, a 22.7 percent conversion rate.  That was actually quite good, a conversion rate that would have finished third in the league over a full season.  But with Green in the lineup for 35 games the Caps converted power plays at a 28.3 percent rate (34-for-120), and their 20-for-65 conversion rate for power plays after he returned to the lineup for good on March 21^st was a 30.8 percent power play conversion rate.  He had a hand in ten of those 20 power play goals (3-7-10).  Green was on ice for 15 of those 20 power play goals including the last 14 power play goals scored by the Caps in the regular season.

That power play performance is one side of a coin, though.  Over the last three seasons, only 10 of Green’s 23 goals have come at 5-on-5.  His shooting percentage is 6.29 percent over that span, which is almost what it is over the last six years combined (6.36 percent).  What Green had been experiencing at 5-on-5 in recent years leading up to this season is a steadily dropping shooting percentage at 5-on-5 – 7.89 percent in 2008-2009, 6.80 percent in 2009-2010, 5.45 percent in 2010-2011, and 0.00 percent in 2011-2012 when he did not record a 5-on-5 goal on 45 shots.  The 2013 season was a nod from the gods in a sense, his seven 5-on-5 goals on 59 shots (11.86 percent) representing his career high in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, following his career low (0.00 percent).

Part of Green’s problem is that he appears to be the sort of offensive defenseman who flourishes with a dependable defensive anchor.  In 2011-2012 most of his 5-on-5 time was spent with Roman Hamrlik (53 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time).  Another 27 percent of his ice time was spent with Jeff Schultz, a partner with whom he did well in the past, but a player who struggled in the ice time that he received in 2011-2012. 

In 2013, 78 percent of Green’s 5-on-5 ice time was spent with Karl Alzner, the epitome of a stay-at-home defenseman.  It did not necessarily lead to a renaissance for Green at 5-on-5, but it was a substantial improvement over his 2011-2012 output.

Odd Green Stat… In his last 15 games of the regular season Green was 9-9-18, yet he was still minus-5.  Part of that is the fact that Green was 4-7-11 on the power play in those games.  On the other hand, he was on ice for 14 of the 26 even strength goals scored against Washington in those games.

Game to Remember… April 27^th vs. Boston.  Mike Green had not recorded a three-point game since October 22, 2011, in a 7-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings, a span of 59 games.  But on the last day of the regular season Green had a hand in all three goals in a 3-2 overtime win over the Boston Bruins.  With Boston holding a 2-0 lead in the third period Green got the Caps on the board with a power play goal.  Less than two minutes later he tied the contest when he started and then finished a play, skating out from behind his own net to start up ice, finding Mike Ribeiro with a long lead pass, then taking the return from Ribeiro to one-time the puck past gowlie Tuukka Rask.  Green then helped ice the game in overtime when, on a power play (of course), he fired a shot that handcuffed Rask.  Eric Fehr swooped in to backhand the puck past Rask for the win.

Game to Forget… April 18^th vs. Ottawa.  The Caps went into Ottawa on April 18^th riding an eight-game winning streak.  It would not reach nine.  Ottawa scored just 75 seconds into the game, Green getting a good view of Kyle Turris’ tally.  He got another good view of an Ottawa goal when Braden Holtby passed the puck right onto the stick of Cory Conacher who wasted no time converting.  Then he could only stand and watch as Turris scored an empty net goal with 27 seconds left.  Add to that a tripping penalty he took, and it was more a fishing trip – fishing pucks out of the Caps’ net – than it was a hockey game for Green.  He finished a season-worst minus-3, although he was more bystander than actively at fault for any of the three goals for the Senators.

Post Season… Mike Green’s post season was a microcosm of his – and the Caps’ – season.  In Game 1-4 he was 2-2-4, plus-3, and part of a ten-goal output.  Certainly not bad against a goalie with the stature of Henrik Lundqvist.  But in Games 5-7 Green was 0-0-0, minus-3 (all of that minus-3 coming in the disaster that was Game 7), part of a meager two-goal output for the team, both goals coming in Game 5, the Caps’ last win of the season.  And this illustrates a disturbing trend.  In the last five seven-game series in which the Caps have played, Green has played all 15 of the Games 5-7.  In those games he is 1-2-3, minus-5.  If he is the catalyst for much of what the Caps do offensively, the reaction has lacked a certain exothermic quality in those situations.

In the end…

The Caps are a better team with Mike Green in the lineup than they are in his absence.  Their power play hums, they pose a more consistent threat offensively.  He remains one of the best skaters, puck carriers, and offensive defensemen in the league (when he is healthy).  But the flip side of that is that when he is not on top of his game, the Caps sputter.  And this has become a bit of an issue late in seven-game series.  It was the case this spring when Green – and the Caps – went utterly silent in Games 6 and 7 against the Rangers.

Green is not asked to be a shut-down defenseman, although he was on ice for only two of the 11 even strength goals the Rangers scored in the first six games of the series.  Green’s role is to be the spark, the quarterback, the guy who can skate out of his own end or make a calm, well placed first pass to start play in the other direction.  He is the guy who can finish from the blue line.  But he has to do that in the most urgent of situations.  And it is not happening for him any more than it is for any of his teammates.  If that does not change, things will not change.

Grade: B

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Erskine

John Erskine

“Success, remember is the reward of toil.”

-- Sophocles

When the 2013 season started, the Washington Capitals had a depth chart for defensemen that might have looked like this…

• Mike Green
• Karl Alzner
• John Carlson
• Roman Hamrlik
• Dmitry Orlov
• Jack Hillen

One of the odd men out in that scenario was John Erskine, who between assorted injuries (shoulder, lower body) and healthy scratches was coming off a 2011-2012 season in which he played in only 28 games.

Erskine’s 2013 season was not much different from his 2011-2012 season with respect to the injury bug – he missed 12 games in March due to an upper-body injury – and he missed another three games in February for elbowing Wayne Simmonds of the Philadelphia Flyers.  But he did dress for 30 games, and by the end of the season, with Hamrlik waived and off to the New York Rangers, Orlov injured and trying to rehabilitate his game with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, and Hillen injured in the first game of the season and trying to work his way back into the lineup after missing 25 games, Erskine found himself by year’s end on the second defensive pairing with John Carlson.

For Erskine it was a productive year, in the technical sense of the term.  While his 0.10 goals-per-game was modest, it was the best such mark he posted over an 11-year career.  His 0.20 points-per-game was his best since posting a 0.24 points-per-game mark in in first year with the Capitals in 2006-2007.  He was plus-10 over 30 games, a plus-27 pace over 82 games, also a career best.  His 32 shots on goal in 30 games was the only season in his career in which he averaged more than a shot per game. 

The problem for Erskine was, as it has been in so many of his seasons with the Capital, injuries.  In seven years with the Caps, Erskine has missed 121 games to injury or illness (tsn.ca), including the 12 he missed in the 2013 season due to an upper body injury. 

Although the games played did not change much for Erskine this season – 30 this year, 28 last season – the ice time did.  Befitting his partnership with John Carlson on the second defensive pairing (78 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time was spent with Carlson), Erskine’s total ice time jumped from 12:05 per game to 18:27, and his even strength ice time jumped from 11:33 per game to 16:13.  It amounted to more than one extra shift per period per game (17.5 shifts per game in 2011-2012 to 21.9 shifts per game in 2013).

The thing is with that pairing is that Erskine’s influence – or at least his presence – had a salutary effect on Carlson.  When on ice together, Carlson’s 5-on-5 goals for were better (0.939 GF/20 vs. 0.824 GF/20 when apart), the goals against were better (0.692 GA/20 vs. 0.733 when apart, numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  There was not a lot of ice time with these players spent apart, but in terms of even strength outcomes, Erskine did not appear to be a liability.  Of course, that also might be tempered by the fact that the top four forwards with whom Erskine shared 5-on-5 ice time ice time were, in order: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, and Nicklas Backstrom.

Odd Erskine Stat… John Erskine scored three goals for the Caps this season, all of which came at Verizon Center, and all of which came in noteworthy games.  His first of the season put the Caps ahead to stay in what would become Adam Oates’ first win as head coach, a 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on January 27^th.  His second goal came on February 26^th in a 3-0 win over the Carolina Hurricanes, which spoiled Alexander Semin’s first game in Washington since leaving the club in free agency after the 2011-2012 season.  His third goal came on March 7^th in a 7-1 win against the Florida Panthers.  His goal, the first of the contest, set in motion a four-goal barrage in 6:12, the second-fastest four-goal start in team history.

Game to Remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  John Erskine was the emergency goaltender of sorts on the evening on which the Capitals clinched the Southeast Division title.  Just one minute after Matt Hendricks scored for the Caps to post the home team to a 1-0 lead, Erskine dove through the crease to block a Bryan Little shot that was targeted to the back of an empty net.  Then, with the clock ticking toward 6:00 remaining in the first period, it was Erskine again, sweeping the puck off the goal line after a deflection of a shot by Aaron Gagnon (who Erskine was tying up in the low slot) hit goaltender Braden Holtby and climbed over his shoulder to fall into the crease.  Erskine added an assist on the goal that would give the Caps the lead for good, and as if to punctuate his performance, took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty with 22 seconds left in the 5-3 win.

Game to Forget… February 12^th vs. Florida.  Florida proved a pesky adversary on this night.  The Caps scored first, but Florida took leads on three separate occasions, taking a 5-3 lead on goals straddling the second intermission, both of which Erskine was on ice for, making it a total three such on-ice goals for Erskine in the game.  He added a penalty for good measure.  It was the only game all season in which Erskine finished as bad as minus-2.

Post season… Live by the second pairing, die by the second pairing.  Erskine tied with John Carlson – his second pairing defensive partner – for the most goals scored against the Caps while on ice (eight) in the seven-game loss to the New York Rangers.  He also did not finish any of the seven games against the New York Rangers in plus territory (minus-4 overall).  He is not expected to provide anything more than serendipitous offense, but he did not record a shot on goal in any of the last three games of the series and was last among Caps defensemen in that regard overall (six shots on goal for the series).

In the end…

John Erskine almost never lacks for effort, but one still has the feeling that he would be a much better third-pair defenseman than a solution as a second-pair defenseman with John Carlson.  It was the second pair that was exploited by the New York Rangers in the playoffs, denting it for half of the goals the Rangers scored in the series.  When Erskine was getting significant minutes against the Southeast Division, he was fine – 2-2-4, plus-10 in 12 games.  But in 25 games outside the division (including playoffs), he was 1-2-3, minus-4.  In a sense Erskine is the canary in the coal mine, the signal of questionable blue line depth.  Circumstance led to Erskine taking second pair minutes this season – Roman Hamrlik not performing as expected, then waived; Dmitry Orlov and Jack Hillen suffering injuries, the inability of Jeff Schultz to dent the lineup.  That does not mean Erskine is a solution at that position.  Hard worker though he is, there are better ways to employ his effort.

Grade: B-

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

“Life is about growth. People are not perfect when they're 21 years old.”

-- Bill Walton

John Carlson struggled mightily in the last half of the 2011-2012 season.  He was 4-8-12, minus-20, over his last 52 games.  It was hardly the expected result of a promising former first-round draft pick who showed so much promise over his first 100 games.  But when he turned things around with a solid playoff performance in 2012, much was expected of Carlson this season.

Did he deliver?  Well, yes and no.  The start of his season looked a little too much like the start of last season.  It seemed as if every time that an opponent scored a goal against the Caps, Carlson had a good look at it.  He was on ice for 41 of the 82 goals scored against Washington over the Caps’ first 27 games. 

That ratio improved a lot for Carlson down the stretch.  He was on ice for only 20 of the 48 goals scored against Washington over the Caps’ last 21 games.

Carlson’s uncertain start and stronger finish not only looks a lot like last year’s performance, it looks a bit like that of his erstwhile partner, Karl Alzner.  Carlson spent more time on ice at 5-on-5 with three defensemen other than Alzner (79:38), including Jeff Schultz (86:06), who played in only 26 games this season.  Carlson spent 46 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time with John Erskine on what would be the Caps second defensive pairing by year end. 

Overall (and that is an important word here), Carlson had a better regular season this season than last.  His goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 were up (0.173 to 0.445). His assists/60 minutes at 5-on-5 were up (0.564 to 0.667).  His shots were up (4.945 to 5.410), individual Fenwick (6.853 to 7.410), and individual Corsi (from 10.193 to 10.300, all numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

These numbers are not unexpected, though, since he was often matched with superior offensive talent.  Again, from stats.hockeyanalysis.com, the offensive quality of teammates was improved (from 0.5 to 12.9 on this particular measure, “HARO/QOT,” again from stats.hockeyanalysis.com), while the defensive quality of his competition was inferior (dropped from -11.2 to -24.8 on the “HARD/QOC” measure).  And this is not a surprise, either, when you understand that the forwards with whom Carlson was matched most often at 5-on-5 in ice time were, in order, Alex Ovechkin, Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom, and Troy Brouwer, all of whom Carlson spent more than five minutes per game of 5-on-5 time skating with this season.

Odd Carlson Stat… This might become its own feature, but there is the matter of that “Southeast Division” effect happening here.  Carlson was 3-9-12, plus-19 against the other Southeast Division teams in 18 games, 3-7-10, minus-8, in 30 games against everyone else.  And for your bonus stat, Carlson scored three goals against the Southeast, all in wins, and scored three goals outside the division, all in losses.

Game to Remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  In Game 46 of the regular season the Caps had a chance to clinch the Southeast Division and a three-seed in the playoffs with a win over the Winnipeg Jets.  The Caps had already blown a two-goal lead and were in jeopardy of blowing a one-goal lead in the third period against the visiting Jets.  It was John Carlson on the ice in the last minute (with John Erskine) to protect that one-goal margin, and the choice worked for the Caps when Alex Ovechkin scored an empty-net goal to seal a 5-3 division-clinching win.  Carlson had only one shot on the evening (no points), but he was a plus-3 in more than 20 minutes of ice time.

Game to Forget… January 24^th through January 27^th.  This is, as you might guess, a multi-game horror show for Carlson.  The Caps had a stretch of three games in four nights against Montreal, New Jersey, and Buffalo.  From the 3:47 mark of the second period in the first game of this set, against Montreal, to the 9:34 mark of the first period of the last game in the set, against Buffalo, Carlson was on ice for all eight goals scored against the Caps.  The Caps lost to the Canadiens (4-1), lost to the Devils in overtime (3-2), and allowed the first goal to the Sabres (the eighth in the sequence for Carlson) in what would be a 3-2 Capitals comeback win.

Post-season…  The second defensive pair for the Capitals had a tough series against the Rangers.  It was a return to the struggles that Carlson experienced early in the regular season in the past two years.  He (and partner John Erskine) was on ice for eight of the 16 goals scored by the Rangers in the series, seven of those goals coming in losses, four of them in the third periods of games.  And Carlson was not making it up in the offensive end.  He had one point in the series, an assist on the first goal in a 4-3 Game 3 loss.

In the end…

John Carlson is still waiting to put that whole season together.  He had a decent regular season, overall, even with the consistency issues early on.  His post-season was, to put it mildly, disappointing.  That is the opposite from the 2011-2012 season in which he had a disappointing regular season (itself surprising, given his experience in juniors with Dale Hunter), followed by a solid post-season.  One could make the argument that he has not improved much (or at least as much as folks might have hoped) since his rookie season in which he finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting as top rookie, and the highest vote-getter among defensemen.

The lingering question from this season, and the playoffs in particular, is whether Carlson’s inconsistency was a product of a lack of development on his part or being paired primarily with a defenseman who might be better suited to a third pair.  The second pair was the one exploited by the Rangers in their playoff series (no defenseman was on ice for more 5-on-5 goals scored against than John Erskine: 7 of the 13 scored by the Rangers).

When Carlson was a 21-year old rookie, he was not perfect.  He plays what is according to many the hardest position to master in hockey.  But as a 21-year old rookie he was thought of as the best of his rookie defenseman class (according to Calder Trophy voting).  That was not a great Calder class for defensemen (five of the 17 players receiving Calder votes in that class were defensemen, none ranked higher than fifth in final voting), but Carlson added it to an impressive early-career resume that included the game-winning goal in the 2010 world juniors championship, a fine 2009-2010 season with the Hershey Bears in which the Bears won the Calder Cup, and then a respectable showing in the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs in which he was 1-3-4, plus-6, in a disappointing seven-game loss to Montreal  in the first round.

That was the early-career resume of a player who could be a top-pair defenseman.  Some folks might have been of the view that with that progress he could make Mike Green expendable (or at least a luxury the Caps could afford to let go with his high salary cap hit).  That has not yet come to pass.  For Carlson’s own game, it is now a matter of growth, to become the reliable, consistent two-way defenseman fans saw in the making when he came into the league.

Grade: B-

Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

“The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

It does not seem all that long ago that Karl Alzner was making his debut in the National Hockey League with the Washington Capitals, getting 30 games of experience in the 2008-2009 season.  But with 215 games of regular season games under his belt coming into the 2013 season, the expectations for Alzner were not the modest ones of a prospect.  He would not – and likely will never – put up big high-end numbers as a defenseman.  Four goals and 39 points in those 215 games are not the numbers of an offensive defenseman.

No, the expectation for Alzner was for that of a shutdown defenseman.  A player who could be matched against an opponent’s top line and who would reliably – or at least more often than not – be the key to keeping that line in check.  After all, what we said at this time last year suggested Alzner would be that shutdown defenseman…

“Of Capitals defensemen playing in at least 30 games this season he faced the stiffest competition at 5-on-5 (behindthenet.ca). He had the highest Corsi value relative to quality of competition. Despite facing that high quality of competition, he had the second best on-ice save percentage against, and he had the second-highest “PDO” at 5-on-5 (shooting percentage plus save percentage). This simple measure is a transparent expression of efficiency. When factoring in the quality of competition faced by Alzner, he stood at the top of the Capitals blueline corps in terms of efficiency this season.”

This season, things were a bit different, and not necessarily in a good way.  At 5-on-5 Alzner’s Corsi relative to competition dropped from 1.403 to 0.479.  His PDO dropped from 1017 to 992.  His goals-against/on ice per 60 minutes rose from 2.20 to 2.55.  And this with more frequency of offensive zone starts.  As a “defensive” defenseman, Alzner is not going to get the majority of his zone starts in the offensive end, but he did record 46.7 percent of his zone starts in that end compared to 41.6 percent in 2011-2012 (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

With an abbreviated season, one wonders whether this fact had effects on any player, Alzner included.  The “tens” paint an odd picture in that regard.  Like the rest of the club, Alzner got off to a poor start.  He did not have a point and was a minus-3 after those first ten games, during which the Caps were 2-7-1.  Alzner was on ice for 17 of the 36 goals scored against the Caps in those ten games, almost a third of the goals against for which he was on ice for the season (55).

There is a push-pull question here.  Hockey can be at times a “circumstantial” sport.  A player – Alzner in this case – might be present for an event, such as a goal scored against, but would not necessarily be the proximate cause of that even taking place.  Was Alzner a factor in poor performance or a victim of circumstance?  Still, Alzner has a role to play on this team, and having been on ice for goals in nine of the first ten games of the season, it did not appear as if that role was being filled as well as it could be, even if he was not the only player of whom that could be said.

Then, as if a light went on, Alzner was 1-2-3, plus-4 over his next 20 games, during which the Caps went 11-9-0, righting a foundering ship.  But then, Alzner’s game regressed, almost as if fatigue was a factor.  In his last 17 games he was 1-1-1, minus-9, while the team was going 13-2-2.  Alzner was on ice for half of the goals scored against the Caps in those 17 games (21 of 42).

From a distance, Alzner’s season looked as if it broke into three pieces – a warm-up stretch in which he struggled, as if the late season start left him at the starting gate; a middle stretch in which he was on top of his game; then a late group of games in which he struggled again.

Odd Alzner Fact… Think there might have been a “Southeast Division” effect in his results?  Against the weak sisters of the Southeast, Alzner was 1-2-3, plus-7, in 18 games.  Against everyone else he was 0-2-2, minus-13, in 30 games.

Game to Remember… April 7^th vs. Tampa Bay.  On a night when the story line was Alex Ovechkin climbing into a tie for the league goal-scoring lead (he had two goals), Alzner was his typical steady self.  In 25:34 of ice time he was not on ice for either of the goals the Lightning scored in the 4-2 Caps win.  And over an 11:40 stretch of the third period with the Caps clinging to a one-goal lead, Alzner logged 5:58 in ice time over five shifts, his last shift – 1:37 in length – ending when Ovechkin scored an empty net goal to seal the win.

Game to Forget… April 13^th vs. Tampa Bay.  Less than a week after his memorable game, Alzner was part of a team breakdown in the third period that saw the Caps lose a 5-1 lead when the Lightning scored four goals in the last 21:13 of regulation.  Alzner was on ice for two of the three goals the Lightning scored in the third period of that contest, the last coming with just 2:35 left in regulation.  He finished that game with a season-worst minus-3.  It was the first time he finished that low in minus territory since his rookie season, when he finished minus-3 in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to the New York Rangers on February 11, 2009.

Post-Season… Alzner was on ice for only two of the 16 goals scored by the Rangers, the fewest of any Capital defenseman while skating the second most minutes (129:00) of any Cap defenseman at 5-on-5 (Mike Green: 147:40).  The only goal on which Alzner could bear the slightest fault was Carl Hagelin’s goal to give the Rangers a 2-0 lead in the Rangers’ 4-3 win in Game 4.  In that instance, Alzner was late and not very aggressive at the Capitals’ blue line in trying to interrupt the pass from Derick Brassard to Hagelin that led to the goal.  Otherwise, Alzner had an impressive post-season.

In the end…

Like so many of the Capitals, this was a learning year for Alzner.  His lesson came in accommodating a new partner.  Last season, Alzner played 65 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes with John Carlson.  In 2010-2011 it was 79 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes spent with Carlson.  This season, it was less than 11 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  Alzner’s primary partner at 5-on-5 this season was Mike Green, with whom he spent 59 percent of his 5-on-5 time.  He also spent substantial amounts of time with Tomas Kundratek (18 percent) and Steve Oleksy (12 percent).

The way Alzner’s time was parceled among other defensemen also point to the manner in which the club depends on him to be that shutdown defenseman, or at least the reliable partner.  His principal partners were one who is primarily an offensive defenseman (Green) and two youngsters who might have needed a chaperone from time to time (Kundratek, Oleksy).

In that context it is reasonable to expect Alzner’s 48-game results would experience some ups and downs, not entirely of his doing.  One might think of this as a transition year for Alzner, from prospect or young, up-and-coming defenseman, to that of the cornerstone defender the team is going to depend on over the next few years.  It will make things interesting in terms of his next contract, Alzner being a restricted free agent.  But for now, this season, Alzner had a solid, if not great season.

Grade: B

photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America