Our Modest Suggestion for the Most Overrated NHL Statistic for 2013

Power Play Conversion Rate

Seriously.

Today, fans of the Pittsburgh Penguins are probably grinding their teeth over the fact that their boys are a big fat oh-for-12 on the power play in three games.  Big deal.

Yeah, the Pens were all whoop-dee-doo on the power play this season, finishing second (to a team we will get to in a moment) during the regular season.  Then, they were 7-for-21 against the New York Islanders in a six-game playoff series, 6-for-25 in a five-game series romp over the Ottawa Senators.  Going 13-for-46 in their first two series is pretty good -- 28.3 percent, an improvement over their 24.7 percent in the regular season.

But then Boston happened, just as the New York Rangers happened to the Washington Capitals (first on the power play in the regular season, dumped in seven games after going 3-for-16 in their first round series). 

Just as the Detroit Red Wings happened to the Anaheim Ducks (fourth in the regular season) in Games 4-7, when the Ducks went 2-for-10 after going 5-for-15 in Games 1-3 (did we mention the Ducks went 1-3 in those last four games?). 

Just as the Ottawa Senators happened to the Montreal Canadiens (fifth in the regular season), holding the Habs to 3-for-19 in their first round matchup that Ottawa won in five games.

Nine teams finished the 2013 regular season with power play conversion rates of 20 percent or better.  Perhaps as a foreshadowing of what was to come, only five of them made the playoffs (Washington, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Montreal, and San Jose).  Only two won a playoff round (Pittsburgh and San Jose).

Ah, but look at 5-on-5's.  The four conference finalists finished in the top-eight in 5-on-5 ratio of goals scored to goals allowed.  Three of them (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Boston) finished in the top four.

In the Bruins-Penguins series, Boston has outscored Pittsburgh 11-2 at even strength.  That happens to be the total scoring for the series, neither team having realized a power play goal through three games.

In the Chicago-Los Angeles series, the Blackhawks won Games 1 and 2 by outscoring the Kings 5-2 at even strength.  In the Kings win, it was 3-1 on even strength for the Kings.

If Boston sweeps the Penguins out, especially, we suspect much will be made of the Penguins getting nothing out of a power play stocked to the rafters with talent.  Well, they might not score any power play goals, but that will not be the reason they lost.  Not anymore than it is the reason the Caps lost to the Rangers.  New York outscored the Caps 14-9 at even strength in seven games.  Boston is laying waste to the Penguins at even strength.

Think of it this way.  Boston won the Stanley Cup in 2011 and did it by finishing 14th of 16 playoff teams in power play conversion rate.

It only makes sense.  If power plays are harder to come by in the post-season, and you get shut down (who doesn't at some point), then five-on-five -- like money in the Willie Sutton analogy about why he robbed banks -- is where the wins are.

Try not to overthink the game; it ain't the power play.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

“Failures are finger posts on the road to achievement.”

-- C. S. Lewis

Perhaps “failure” is too strong a word to describe the 2013 season Marcus Johansson had for the Washington Capitals.  After all, despite missing a quarter of the season to the dreaded “upper-body injury,” Johansson did finish seventh on the team in total points scored, he was fourth on the club in shooting percentage, he finished tied for fourth in assists, and he was fifth in power play goals scored.

That is the positive spin, though.  The other side of the coin is that Johansson put up these numbers having skated far more of his 450 minutes at 5-on-5 with Alex Ovechkin (328) and Nicklas Backstrom (324) than he did with any other forward.  In fact, Johansson did not spend as much as 75 minutes at 5-on-5 time with any other forward in his 34 games of the season, and only with Troy Brouwer (73) did he skate more than 50 minutes. 

Johansson skated the majority of his 5-on-5 ice time with most talented linemates the Caps had to offer, and he scored one even strength goal in the presence of Ovechkin and Backstrom on the ice all season (March 21^st in a 4-0 win over Winnipeg).  He did have more of a presence in a support role – ten of his 13 5-on-5 assists were recorded with Ovechkin on the ice, eight of them with Backstrom centering him – but Johansson did not state with authority that he was the long-term solution at left wing on the top line.

And that leads us to today’s word… “context.”  In 2011-2012 Johansson had a fine sophomore season – 14-32-46 in 80 games.  And in fact, his 6-16-22 scoring line in 2013 would have been a bit of a bump up on an similar 80-game basis – 14-38-52.  He had three power play goals this season compared to one in 2011-2012.  His shooting percentage was little different – 15.0 percent this year, 15.6 percent last season.

But here is the difference.  In 2011-2012 Johansson skated more 5-on-5 time with Alex Ovechkin than with any other forward, but he skated almost as much 5-on-5 ice time with Alexander Semin.  Johansson being primarily a center last season, he was shuttling more between lines.  He spent more than 100 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time with six different forwards, and it was rather impressive that the Caps team goals scored at 5-on-5 per 20 minutes (GF20 at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) were better for five of those forwards when skating with Johansson that when they were apart, Semin being the exception.

One might have expected that with more regular linemates, especially those being the top line center and top line right wing, the continuity and the growth one might have anticipated in his game would have resulted in more offensive production.  And let us face it.  Johansson’s contributions are going to come primarily at the offensive end of the ice.  Although his goals scored against while on ice were certainly acceptable (seventh lowest among the 14 Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games), he did not spend much time killing penalties (ninth most penalty killing minutes per game among forwards).  Neither is he an especially demonstrative player physically.  He had only 14 hits and four penalty minutes in 34 games this season and has only 22 penalty minutes in his 183-game career with the Caps.

Odd Johansson Statistic… “Three.”  There were 337 forwards who played in at least 30 games in the NHL this season.  Only three – Philadelphia’s Matt Read, Detroit’s Drew Miller, and Winnipeg’s Kyle Wellwood – recorded fewer penalty minutes than the four recorded by Marcus Johansson.  For the record, it was Johansson tripping Read in a 5-4 overtime Flyer win on March 31^st, and he got caught up with a coincidental minor with Carolina’s Jeff Skinner in a 3-2 Caps win on April 11^th.

Game to Remember… April 2^nd at Carolina.  The Caps were at a precarious point of their season.  After a 2-8-1 start they made a slow climb through the standings, but they still found themselves on the outside looking up at the top-eight in the Eastern Conference, and the Caps still had not reached the .500 mark on the season after 35 games.  The Caps had their third chance in four games to reach the .500 mark when they visited Carolina on April 2^nd.  It was a back-and-forth affair, the Hurricanes scoring the first two goals of the contest before the Caps scored two to tie it.  Carolina took the lead again barely a minute after the Caps tied it, 2-2, but Washington tied it again less than three minutes later.  The Caps finally took the lead midway through the second period on a goal by Alex Ovechkin on which Johansson recorded an assist. 

Then, Carolina got caught on the wrong side of one of those “high-risk, high-reward” situations.  On a power play the Hurricanes elected to put defensemen Marc-Andre Bergeron and Joe Corvo on the ice at the same time, both of whom are talented offensive players but who are, to put it delicately, adventures on the defensive side of the puck.  Bergeron made a ghastly play at the Capitals’ blue line, trying to hit Eric Staal with a pass just as he entered the Caps’ zone.  The pass was off target, rebounding off the side boards.  Johansson fought through Staal to get the puck and headed up ice with Joel Ward, only Corvo back for Carolina.  Corvo could not decide whether to defend the shot or the pass or the beer vendor in the stands, did none, and Johansson lofted a pretty saucer pass that was right on the tape of Ward’s stick for the goal and a 5-3 Caps win.

Game to Forget… January 25^th at New Jersey.  In almost 17 minutes of ice time, Johansson managed to attempt one shot on goal (a miss), did not have a hit, a takeaway, or a blocked shot, lost six of nine faceoffs, and was on ice for both the Devils’ first goal of the game and the last one, a blast from Ilya Kovalchuk, just moments after Johansson was just a half second late getting in the way of a shot that might have disrupted New Jersey’s ability to keep the puck in the zone leading up to Kovalchuk’s game-winner.

Post-Season… Like so many of the Caps, Johansson’s post-season was utterly forgettable.  Well, almost.  At least he had the game-winning goal in Game 1, the product of a gorgeous stretch pass from Steve Oleksy that found Johansson behind the New York Ranger defense for a breakaway.  That would be the high point of his series.  In the other six games Johansson was 0-1-1, minus-3, and was on ice for only one goal for the Caps in those last six games.  In other words, Johansson did not have an especially bad series in the context of the performance of most of his teammates.

In the end…

This was more a “sideways” kind of season for Johansson.  His profile as a player is coming into focus.  He is primarily an offensive player, although he is not a bad defensive performer.  He is a superior skater with fine speed, but he lacks a physical dimension to his game.  What was unsettling about this season --- what gave it its “sideways” quality – was that he was too much the passenger on the line on which the team depended for consistent and significant offense.  It is sometimes useful to remember that Johansson will not be 23 years old until just before the puck drops on the 2013-2014 season and that he has fewer than 200 games of NHL regular season experience.  It also helps to step back and examine his production with a cool eye.  Doing so, one can see that he has in fact made progress.

On the other hand, he is entering a phase of his career in which he can settle into being a 45-50 point player – productive to a point and capable of making contributions from time to time.  Or, he can take that next leap to being a 55-60 point player and a player of consequence on a scoring line.  That will be the next finger post on Johansson’s career road.

Grade: C+

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals -- The Dangers of Late-Night Pizza

Try as we might, sometimes we just cannot resist the desire for a pepperoni, anchovy, and marshmallow fluff pizza.  And when we succumb to that guilty pleasure, odd dreams are sure to follow.  Such was the case last evening when the thunder clouds of peppery, fishy fluff rumbling in our stomach combined with watching playoff hockey resulted in odd visions in our sleep…

It was several years into the future, each year of playoff futility by the Washington Capitals adding one more length of chain that we Caps fans bear as the price for following this club.  The disappointment of promise unfulfilled, of chances missed, the knock of opportunity unanswered weighs heavily after another early round playoff exit. 

Another season begins, and the hope that accompanies it sprouts once more.  Maybe this year will be different.  But something is amiss.  What was once unparalleled chemistry between Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom just isn’t there.  Passes are off the mark, shots are shanked.  They are not on the same page.  There seems to be a growing lack of communication.

They seem to have grown apart.

And then we realize… Ovechkin and Backstrom will have been linemates since the 2007-2008 season.  They are under contract together through the 2019-2020 season (Ovechkin would still have one year to go on his deal).  Thirteen years together.  It would be quite a run…

…until you look up the statistics and find that the median length of time for first marriages in the United States is eight years.

And then the whispers start about giving Ovechkin a chance to win a Cup before his contract ends and he returns to Russia… or maybe moving Backstrom to a contender to give him a shot at a Cup that he didn’t win in Washington.  The speculation starts…

...Ovechkin to Pittsburgh

...Backstrom to New York

...Ovechkin to Chicago

...Backstrom to Boston

...Ovechkin to Florida to skate with that MacKinnon fellow who already has a Cup with the Panthers

...Backstrom to Colorado, who is looking to add another Cup to the one already won by Duchene, O’Reilly, Landeskog, and Jones

And then we wake up, bolt upright in a cold sweat muttering…

“Win a Cup, you guys, and soon, because marriages don’t last forever.”

We really do have to lay off that pizza.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks

"It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage"

-- Dr. Henry Walton (Indiana) Jones, Jr., PhD

Professor (ret) of Archaeology, Marshall College

Matt Hendricks is one of those guys you instinctively root for.  He wears his emotions on the ice, leaves everything he has to give out there, is fearless in standing up for his teammates, and does fine work in the community off the ice.  He also happens to have a freakish skill in the trick shot phase of the game and chips in his share of offense as a fourth-liner.  He is never going to get any Hart Trophy votes, but you want him by your side when you take the ice.

Coming into the 2013 season Hendricks did have some rebuilding to do on his Capitals resume.  After posting a surprising 9-16-25 scoring line in 77 games in 2010-2011, Hendricks saw his points drop by almost two-thirds in 2011-2012 when he went 4-5-9 in 78 games.  He came out of the gate as strong as you might hope for a fourth liner, going 4-2-6, plus-4, in his first 22 games.  He was on a double-digit goal-scoring pace, which would have been a first in his five-year career. 

Then, Hendricks went cold just as the Caps were heating up.  Over his last 26 games, during which the Caps went 17-7-2, Hendricks went 1-1-2, minus-10.  It really was a tale of two seasons for Hendricks.  In addition to those considerably different scoring lines, his shooting percentage regressed significantly, despite almost no change in shots.  He was 4-for-26 in those first 22 games (1.18 shots per game; 15.4 percent shooting percentage), while he was 1-for-18 in his last 26 games (1.08 shots per game; 3.6 percent shooting percentage).

Then there was his ornery index.  In his first 22 games he recorded 44 penalty minutes and four of his fighting majors, three of them coming in the space of consecutive games, two in a 4-2 loss to Winnipeg on January 22^nd and another on January 24^th in a 4-1 loss to Montreal.  In his last 26 games he logged 29 penalty minutes and three fighting majors.  His ice time suffered a bit as well.  In his first 22 games he averaged twelve and a half minutes a game.  Over his last 26 games that dropped to 11 minutes per game.

The outcomes for Hendricks really did reflect his outputs, at least as far as his underlying numbers are concerned.  Among the 13 Capitals forwards playing in at least 20 games for the club in the 2013 season Hendricks was last in plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.  He was 12^th in PDO (sum of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage), 10^th in on-ice Corsi.  One does not expect these numbers to rank highly for a fourth-liner, but they did represent a drop in ranking from the previous year when he was 11^th among 13 forwards playing in 40 or more games in plus-minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, 11^th in PDO, and 9^th in on-ice Corsi (all results from behindthenet.ca).

Odd Hendricks Statistic… “Two.”  On two separate occasions Hendricks recorded two fights in a single game – January 22^nd against Winnipeg and March 16^th against Boston.  The Caps lost both games, 4-2 to the Jets and 4-2 to the Bruins.

Game to Remember… March 2^nd at Winnipeg.  The Capitals needed a lift… badly.  Coming off a 4-1 loss in Philadelphia to close the month of February, the Caps found themselves in last place in the Eastern Conference, six points behind both Carolina and Winnipeg for eighth place in the conference.  The Caps had an opportunity to take a bite out of one of those teams when they visited Winnipeg on March 2^nd.  The teams skated to a scoreless first period, but midway through the second John Erskine let loose with a bomb from the left point that nailed Jets’ forward Blake Wheeler in the knee, dropping him to the ice.  With Wheeler unable to get to his feet, the Caps had what amounted to a man advantage.  The puck made its way to the stick of Mike Ribeiro in the right wing faceoff circle.  Ribeiro dangled the puck, pulling Bryan Little out of position.  Hendricks took advantage of the situation by heading down the slot behind Little.  Ribeiro found him for the tip-in and what would be the game-winning goal in a 3-0 win.  It was Hendricks’ only game-winning goal of the season.

Game to Forget… February 1^st vs. Philadelphia.  It was one of those games where you have to do the ugly part of your job.  As the first period was winding down in a scoreless game, John Erskine nailed Flyer forward Wayne Simmonds with an extended elbow right in the nose.  There was no penalty called on the play, but the Flyers were not waiting to extract their pound of flesh.  When the teams lined up for the ensuing puck drop, Hendricks was on ice for the Caps, Zac Rinaldo – he of the 15 fights in the 2011-2012 season – was sent out by the Flyers.  Before the puck could be dropped (in fact, the linesman was about to toss Max Talbot out of the circle for a violation) Hendricks and Rinaldo went at it.  Both players received fighting majors, and for their trouble in starting the kerfuffle before the puck drop, both received game misconducts.  It was Hendrick’s shortest stint of the season – four shifts and 2:23 in ice time.  The Flyers won, 3-2.

Post Season… Only two Capitals who played in all seven games finished without a point to show for it.  Eric Fehr was one, Matt Hendricks was the other.  One could argue that he did play adequate defense, what with only three goals scored against the Caps in the series when he was on the ice.  But the Caps scored only one goal in the entire series when he was on the ice.  This is a continuing refrain for the Caps in the playoffs, a soft underbelly of weak scoring on the third and fourth lines.  Jay Beagle had the only point from the fourth line in the series.  For Hendricks, it extended a long stretch of post-season frustration.  He is 1-1-2, minus-7 in 34 career playoff games.

In the end…

Emotion is a big part of sports, both from players and fans alike.  But sentimentality is not.  Successful teams do not have a conscience when making evaluations about their roster and their future.  The question heading into this off-season for Matt Hendricks is whether, at age 32 on opening night of the 2013-2014 season, has enough left in the tank to provide that energetic presence he has provided to the Caps over the last three seasons.  Or, is it really the mileage?  Has the fire that burned twice as hot in Hendricks lasted half as long?  Hendricks did not have a very good second half or playoff record, even by the standards of his position and role.  That has to be disquieting for the club as they evaluate the benefits of re-signing Hendricks to a new contract (he is an unrestricted free agent).  One thing is certain.  Whoever gets Hendricks will get all he has to give.  It just might be that there has been so much given, there might not be a lot left.

Grade: C+

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Eric Fehr

Eric Fehr

“Still round the corner there may wait,

A new road or a secret gate.”

-- J. R. R. Tolkien

It has been quite a road traveled by Eric Fehr the last couple of years.  Once a first round draft pick of the Washington Capitals, a succession of injuries dimmed the promise he showed as a goal-scorer in Canadian juniors.  By the time he finished his sixth season with the Capitals in 2011, he had played in only 230 games and recorded only 46 goals.  At age 25, he seemed to be damaged goods and was shipped to the Winnipeg Jets in July 2011 for Danick Paquette and a mid-round draft pick.

As if things were not frustrating enough in Washington, Fehr’s 2011-2012 season in Winnipeg was a disaster.  It should have been a pleasant homecoming, Fehr being a native of Winkler, Manitoba.  Instead, he underwent shoulder surgery in October 2011 and missed the first 19 games of the season for the Jets.  He never recovered from the delayed start, posting only two goals in 35 games with Winnipeg.

With his two year deal originally signed with Washington now expired, Fehr was a free agent. Unfortunately, a 26-year old with a history of shoulder problems was not in high demand, and he signed a contract with HPK in Finland.  There, Fehr regained something of his scoring touch, posting 13 goals in 21 games.  With the NHL finally coming to its senses and reaching an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement in January, the Capitals signed Fehr back on January 12^th on a one-year, $600,000 deal just in time for the start of the 2013 season.

It took Fehr a while to get started, missing the first three games of the season with, yes, an “upper body injury," then going without a point in his first eight games.  But over his last 33 games he was 9-8-17, plus-16.  That is a 22-20-42, plus-40 pace over 82 games.  Not bad for a guy who finished tenth among Caps forwards in total minutes played this season.

There was, though, the infernal “Southeast Division” thing going on.  Fehr was 5-4-9, plus-14 in 15 games against the fellow travelers of the Southeast, while he was 4-4-8, even, in his other 26 games.  However, as Caps fans no doubt will remember, two of those four goals against other divisions were quite dramatic, including this one to end the regular season with a flourish…

An encouraging aspect of Fehr’s game was his contributions at even strength.  Yes, that is a big part of his job (or at least what Caps fans hoped he would be a few years back), but looking at the four players with whom he skated at least 100 minutes this season, the GF20 values at 5-on-5 (team goals for per 20 minutes at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) for three of those players – Mathieu Perreault, Jason Chimera, and Nicklas Backstrom – were higher with Fehr than they were when apart.  He also had solid next-lvel numbers.  Among Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games Fehr had the best PDO (sum of save percentage and shooting percentage), had a better ratio of penalties drawn to penalties taken than any forward except Marcus Johansson, the best Corsi on-ice relative to off ice, and the best plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes (all results from behindthenet.ca).

Odd Fehr Statistic... Eric Fehr was one of nine forwards in the league whose only game winning goals came in overtime.  He was the only forward in the league who had two game-winning goals, both in overtime (the other eight were one-for-one).

Game to Remember… March 5^th vs. Boston.  It is something about the Bruins.  Eric Fehr recorded the only three-point game of his career when he had three assists in a Caps 10-2 win over Boston on March 3, 2008.  The March 5^th game against the Bruins did not have the look of a game in which Fehr would repeat the feat, especially when the Bruins went out to a 3-0 lead before the horn went off for the first intermission.  But after Mike Ribeiro got the Caps on the board early in the second period, Fehr was credited with the primary assists on goals by Tomas Kundratek in the second period and Wojtek Wolski to tie the game in the third period.  He saved the best for last, though, just 37 seconds into the overtime…

Game to Forget… January 31^st at Toronto.  Through two periods of the Caps’ game against the Maple Leafs, Eric Fehr spent a total of 2:06 on the ice and did not see a shift in the second period.  He got a couple of turns around the ice early in the third period, but the third shift was not the charm.  Fehr had two chances to stymie a breakout by the Leafs from their own end, first not quite getting a stick on a John-Michael Liles feed up to Matt Frattin.  Then, when Frattin could not collect the pass cleanly, Fehr was unable to tie him up along the boards.  Frattin broke free and headed up ice.  Seconds later, Frattin was on the business end of a feed from Nazem Kadri, and he buried it in the back of the net for what would be the game-winning goal in the 3-2 Leafs win on what was Fehr’s last shift of the evening.

Post Season… It just never came together for Fehr in the first round series against the New York Rangers.  That team best PDO among Caps forwards at 5-on-5 in the regular season?  He had the third-worst among Caps forwards playing in all seven games.  Plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5?  Third-worst.  His relative Corsi, on-ice to off-ice, which best at 5-on-5 in the regular season?  Eighth among Caps forwards in the Ranger series.  He finished without a point in seven games, and he was on ice for each of the first four goals scored by the Rangers in their 5-0 series-clinching win.

In the end…

Yes, the playoffs were a bitter end to the season for the Caps and Fehr in particular, but it was quite a comeback season.  The Caps rewarded him with a two-year, $3.0 million extension off his 2013 season production.  Fehr is probably a more well-rounded player than he was when he departed Washington in 2011.  He has become a better defensive player (only 14 goals scored against on-ice, none of them in penalty-killing situations, and he displayed some of the finishing skill hoped for when he was drafted.  The aim now is to build on this from a healthy foundation.  If Fehr can put together a solid 70-game season next year (he has yet to hit that mark in eight seasons), it could be the secret gate to career success.

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Joey Crabb

Joey Crabb

“Expectation is the root of all heartache.”

-- William Shakespeare

When Joey Crabb was signed by the Washington Capitals to a one-year, one-way contract paying him $950,000 on July 1^st, optimism was the order of the day.  His agent, Kevin Epp, noted that “he’s versatile and can move up and down the lineup — wherever he’s needed.”  He was confident that Crabb landed in the right place, saying that “Washington was a good fit.  For Joey to have the opportunity to play on a championship-caliber team, that’s what was most important for him, and this was a good chance to do so.”

And why shouldn’t the Crabb camp paint a picture of optimism?  In his first full season in the NHL, with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2011-2012, Crabb was 11-15-26 in 67 games skating just over 13 minutes a game.  Surely on a team with the offensive features to be brought to bear by new head coach Adam Oates, a player like Crabb could build on that season and flourish in Washington.

Right?

It was probably an ominous sign when Crabb did not dress for the season opener against Tampa Bay on January 19^th.  He got into the lineup the following game against Winnipeg, then scored his first goal of the season in the next game against Montreal.  But even that had a cloud hanging over it, the goal being the lone goal for the Caps, scored with less than three minutes left in what would be a 4-1 loss.  He then went without a point over his next 21 games.  His ice time, which averaged over 11 minutes per game over his first 12 games with the Caps, dwindled to an average of less than eight minutes a game over his next 14 games.

By the time Crabb skated his last shift for the Caps early in the third period of a 5-3 win over Buffalo on March 14^th, he had two goals and no assists in 26 games.  One of the more shocking numbers in his 2013 season resume was the fact that he was on ice for five power play goals against.  Only four other Capital forwards were on ice for more, and three of them – Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Hendricks, and Jay Beagle – did so playing in all 48 games.  The other – Troy Brouwer – played in 47 contests.  Seven Capitals averaged more penalty killing time per game than did Crabb.

Another shocking number, which might not be altogether shocking given his season, is “four.”  That is the total number of goals he was on ice for in 26 games, and two of those were his own.

Here is another one… “three.”  Crabb, who scored 11 goals on 75 shots on goal in 67 games in Toronto in 2011-2012, managed only three games in which he recorded more than one shot, and in 11 games did not have a shot on goal at all.

Crabb was waived in late March, cleared waivers, then was sent down to Hershey for the remainder of his season.  He was 6-6-12, plus-5 in 12 regular season games with the Bears, then went 5-0-5 in five playoff games in the Bears’ first round loss to the Providence Bruins.  He was recalled after the Bears’ season ended but saw no action in the playoff series against the New York Rangers.

Game to Remember… March 14^th at Carolina.  In a season as forgettable as Crabb’s you might think that there would be no game to remember.  But there the Caps were, heading to Carolina on a three-game losing streak and in danger of tumbling into last place in the Eastern Conference.  It got worse when the Carolina Hurricanes, ten points ahead of the Caps in the standings at the time, broke on top with a pair of first period goals, one of them by former Cap Alexander Semin.  However, in the sixth minute of the second period, Crabb went to the basics.  As Aaron Volpatti was chipping the puck along the left wing wall past Hurricane defenseman Justin Faulk, Crabb darted to the net.  Volpatti retrieved the puck and sent a pass to the front of the Carolina net where Crabb had beaten defenseman Bobby Sanguinetti to the spot. Crabb redirected the puck in, starting a comeback that resulted in a Caps 3-2 win.  You could argue that it was the most important goal of the Caps’ season, for with that goal and the comeback win that followed, the three-game losing streak was over, and the Caps finished the season 17-4-2, Southeast Division champs one last time.

Game to Forget… pretty much the rest of them.

In the end…

On the one hand, there was that 11-goal season in Toronto in 2011-2012.  On the other, Washington was Crabb’s third team over parts of four seasons – one in Atlanta with the Thrashers and two in Toronto.  On the one hand, there was that 11-goal season in Toronto in 2011-2012.  On the other, Crabb was approaching his 30^th birthday having played in only 144 NHL games.  On the one hand, there was that 11-goal season in Toronto in 2011-2012 that might have merited a $950,000 one-way contract.  On the other, well…

Grade: D

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera

Those were the days my friend

We thought they'd never end

We'd sing and dance forever and a day

We'd live the life we choose

We'd fight and never lose

Those were the days, oh yes those were the days

-- Mary Hopkin

Those were the days.  By the time the 2011-2012 season was five games old, Jason Chimera had four goals.  After 26 games he had 11 goals, surpassing his entire total for the 2010-2011 season (10).  When the season was over he had the first 20-goal season of his career, five of those tallies being game-winners.

In 2012-2013 Chimera would not match that five-game goal total, let alone come close to his career high or even his career average (15 goals per 82 games).  No, three goals would be all Chimera would record for the 2012-2013 season, the first of them not coming until Game 28 against Buffalo.  His others came against similar also-rans in the standings – Tampa Bay and Winnipeg.  Among 373 qualifying players, Chimera finished 358^th of 373 players in shooting percentage.  Only six forwards finished lower than Chimera’s 3.3 percent shooting on 92 shots.

What made his shooting statistics even more bizarre is that starting with that first goal of the season against Buffalo in Game 28, he shot to a respectable 9.7 percent over his last 19 games.  After all, he shot 9.8 percent in 2011-2012 when he recorded that 20-goal season.  But his shooting dried up – 31 shots in those last 19 games. 

That is what made the 2011-2012 the real aberration here.  Bracket that season with the one preceding and the one following, and you see that in 2010-2011 he averaged 2.0 shots per game and 2.0 shots per game in 2012-2013.  In his career season, he averaged 2.50 shots per game. This season, it was not that Chimera was not getting his shots, at least in the context of his career production (2.0 shots per game coming into this season).  He simply was not converting them.

He was also tough on his linemates with that sort of offensive production.  He spent most of his 5-on-5 ice time skating with Joel Ward and Mathieu Perreault, both of whom did significantly better in terms of team goals scored for per 20 minutes (GF20 in stats.hockeyanalysis.com parlance).  Ward’s production value was 0.747 when skating with Chimera, 1.152 when apart.  For Perreault, it was 0.835 with Chimera, 1.276 when apart. 

At least with Perreault he did enjoy his own best production – all three of his goals on the season were scored with Perreault centering him.  But Eric Fehr, with whom Chimera scored two of his three goals, enjoyed better team production apart that with Chimera – an 0.859 GF20 value with Chimera at 5-on-5, 1.188 when apart.  There was not a single Capital forward who had a better GF20 value at 5-on-5 with Chimera than he had when apart.

If he is not scoring, was he contributing in other ways?  Well, among Caps forwards only four were on ice for more even strength goals, and those were the big offensive guns –Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, and Mike Ribeiro.  Neither was he a penalty-killer, what with only Ovechkin, Perreault, and Wojtek Wolski getting less penalty-killing ice time per game (20 games minimum).  In fact, Chimera spent less time on special teams (21 seconds per game) than any Capital forward (20 games minimum).

Game to remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  On a night when the Caps would clinch their last Southeast Division title, Chimera had his second two-point game of the season.  The first came on a nice bit of work between Chimera and Mathieu Perreault.  Mike Green dumped the puck in the Jet’s end, and Perreault beat defenseman Ron Hainsey to the puck, poking it into the corner to the waiting Chimera.  From the corner, Chimera returned the puck to Perreault below the goal line, then made a beeline for the Winnipeg net.  Perreault found Chimera at the side of the cage to the right of goalie Ondrej Pavelec.  Chimera got two whacks at the puck, the first stopped by Pavelec’ pad, but the second one finding the back of the net.  Chimera added an assist on what would be the game-winning goal by Perreault, giving him a two-point night and the Caps another division crown.

Game to Forget… February 12^th at Florida.  Start the game as the left wing on the top line but skate a total of ten shifts, three of which end in goals for the opposition – their first three goals of the game, you do not so much as attempt a shot, and you get only one shift after the second period in what would be an overtime game in which you skate a total of 5:43 in ice time, yeah, that would be a game to forget.

Post-Season… The shots did not come early for Chimera in the first-round season against the New York Rangers, only five over Games 1-4, but he was productive – 1-2-3, plus-2 in those games.  But then, just like the rest of the club, he vanished in Games 5-7.  He did not record a point, despite ten shots on goal over those three games.  It probably says enough about the Caps that Chimera finished tied for third in total points for the Caps and was tied for the lead in goals scored with eight teammates, all with one apiece.

In the end…

Jason Chimera came into this season almost certainly not as productive a player as his 2011-2012 numbers might suggest, but now we are left to wonder if he is as unproductive as his 2012-2013 numbers look. That is an important question to consider for the 2013-2014 season, the last for Chimera under his current contract ($1.75 million salary cap hit).  The easy answer is that he is somewhere in-between the last two seasons.  But if he is closer to his three-goal total for this year than his 20-goal total in 2012-2013, it will be a lot of money to sink into a player who could end up a fourth-liner on most nights, especially one who is not called upon to participate on special teams.  The Caps would probably like to have him provide the stable, regular 15-goal or so production per 82 games that he posted over his first 11 seasons.  But at the age of 34, is that a reasonable expectation? 

Grade: D+

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Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Troy Brouwer

Troy Brouwer

“The way to have power is to take it.”

-- Boss Tweed

Pavel Datsyuk, John Tavares, James Neal, Anze Kopitar, Troy Brouwer.  What, pray tell, do these five forwards have in common?  All of them had 16 power play points in the regular season. Brouwer had as many power play goals as Zach Parise and Logan Couture.  He had as many power play assists as Patrick Kane, Daniel Sedin, and Patrik Elias.

It was a powerful year for Troy Brouwer.

Here is how powerful.  His 7-9-16 line on the power play in 47 games almost equaled his power play output over the last two seasons combined – 10-8-18 over 159 games.  He was 12^th overall in 5-on-4 goals scored per 60 minutes (players with at least 100 5-on-4 minutes played), no mean feat when teammate Alex Ovechkin led the league in that statistic.  And his finishing 26^th in 5-on-4 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-4 was almost as impressive in that centers dominated the top-25 in that statistic, including teammates Mike Ribeiro (first) and Nicklas Backstrom (fifth).  He was 12^th overall in 5-on-4 points per 60 minutes (all numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

The power play output was what made the 2013 season special for Brouwer.  His 11-5-16 at even strength was an 82-game pace of 19-9-28, the 28-point pace being in line with his output from the previous three seasons – 27 points in 2011-2012, 23 points in 2010-2011, and 28 points in 2009-2010.

In fact, Brouwer’s 5-on-5 numbers were rather ordinary in the context of the Capital forwards.  For instance, his total points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 were identical to that of Wojtek Wolski, who couldn’t get a sweater at a concession booth over the last half of the season.  Where he did shine, though, was in goal scoring at 5-on-5.  He finished second on the club to Alex Ovechkin, and his 0.884 goals-per-60 minutes at 5-on-5 was in the ball park with such wingers as Corey Perry (0.861) and Bobby Ryan (0.863) in Anaheim, Patrick Kane in Chicago (0.887), and Tyler Seguin in Boston (0.892).

Brouwer is a useful indicator of some second-line problems that hit the team from time to time.  Over the course of his 47 games the two players with whom he played the most at 5-on-5 were the two scoring line centers, Mike Ribeiro (301 minutes) and Nicklas Backstrom (259 minutes).  Looking at Brouwer’s production with Ribeiro and without, he finished with a GF20 (team goals for per 20 minutes) value of 0.532.  That number increased when Brouwer and Ribeiro were separated (0.645).  The opposite was true with Nicklas Backstrom.  When playing with Backstrom, Brouwer’s GF20 value was 0.619, when apart it was 0.568.

What the Caps might want to look at with Brouwer is his role as a penalty killer.  In 2011-2012 six Capital forwards recorded more than 50 minutes of 4-on-5 ice time, and Brouwer had the third best GA20 (opposition team goals scored per 20 minutes, as measure at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) with a value of 2.286 goals against per 20 minutes of ice time.  This year, that value ballooned to 2.858 goals against per 20 minutes of ice time, second worst on the team (Nicklas Backstrom was worst).  It is a comparatively new role for him, his having finished eighth among forwards in total shorthanded ice time in Chicago in 2010-2011.  The silver lining is, if he improves, the Caps penalty killing improves, and it sure could use improvement.

Odd Brouwer Stat… Brouwer scored goals at a 33-goal pace per 82 games this season, and you would think he did it by posting a career best in shooting percentage.  You would be wrong.  His 17.1 percent shooting percentage this season was his second best in his seven-year career, bested by his 19.0 percent in his 22-goal season in 78 games in 2009-2010 with Chicago.  The thing is, he hasn’t finished lower than 13.5 percent in any of the last four seasons.

Game to Remember… March 21/22 vs. Winnipeg.  The Caps needed a lift.  When they took to the road to Winnipeg for games on March 21^st and 22^nd, they sat in 14^th place in the Eastern Conference, seven points out of eighth place and nine points behind Winnipeg, then leading the Southeast Division.  Worse, the Caps were coming off a tough 2-1 loss in Pittsburgh before heading west.  In the first game of the back-to-back in Winnipeg, Brouwer got the Caps off on the right foot with a goal just 3:06 into the game. It would prove to be the game-winner in a 4-0 win.  The following night, Brouwer scored less than four minutes after Brooks Laich opened the scoring in the first period, and it, too, proved to be the game-winner in the Caps’ 6-1 pasting of the Jets.  For the series, Brouwer was 2-0-2, plus-3, five shots on goal, two hits, a blocked shot, and he was 5-for-6 on faceoffs.

Game to Forget… February 27^th vs. Philadelphia.  The Caps were coming off back-to-back solid performances, a 5-1 win over New Jersey and a 3-0 win over Carolina at home.  Then they visited Philadelphia the night after the win over the Hurricanes.  They – and Brouwer – were flat.  With the Flyers holding a 1-0 lead, Brouwer was a half-tick too late getting his stick in the way of a Scott Hartnell shot on a Flyer power play.  Goalie Braden Holtby made the first save, but Wayne Simmonds potted the rebound.  Then, with the Flyers up 3-0 late in the second period, the home team iced it when Max Talbot wired one in.  Brouwer might have been the unluckiest man on the play, for he had just stepped onto the ice to replace Alex Ovechkin when the goal was scored.  He was not within 50 feet of Talbot, but he got credit for being on ice for the score.

Post Season… There were times this season when Brouwer was either unlucky or unaware on defense, and it came to a head in Game 7 against the Rangers.  He was caught in no-man’s land in the slot covering no one in particular when Taylor Pyatt put the Rangers up, 2-0, less than four minutes into the second period.  Barely two minutes later, he went to bended knee to try to block a drive by Michael Del Zotto, but all he got was air as the puck sailed by and past goalie Braden Holtby for a 3-0 Ranger lead.  The third straight goal he found himself on the ice for, just 13 seconds into the third period, he had no fault in, Ryan Callahan stripping the puck from John Erskine at the red line and skating in on a break to end the competitive portion of Game 7.  But his minus-3 was his worst such finish of the season, and the three goals against for which he found himself on ice were more than his total for the first six games combined (two).  Six pretty good games and then, like the rest of the team, an egg laid on home ice.

In the end…

Brouwer had a fine year, made better by his performance on special teams.  But with the pleasure, there is the pain.  He did not have an exceptional year at even strength, rather one very much in line with his career norm.  And when the power play came up short in the playoffs – three goals scored in seven games – the lack of extraordinary production on Brouwer’s part at even strength, again like much of the team around him, took on more weight.  He was a capable secondary scorer who might have benefited more from Adam Oates' wizardry in drawing up the power play than any player not named “Ovechkin.”  But, in the end, it was not enough, either for him or for his teammates.

Grade: B

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