The Cup vs. The Finals, Stanley vs. Larry... Does Format Matter? (Oh, and a prognosto)

The Stanley Cup Playoffs get underway tonight, and it is a good time to do a little comparison between the NHL and NBA in terms of their finals formats.

In 1985 the National Basketball Association changed its finals format to a 2-3-2 arrangement of the seven games -- Games 1 and 2, and Games 6 and 7 played on the higher-seeded team’s home court.  The National Hockey League had a similar format in 1985 but moved to a 2-2-1-1-1 format the following year and each year thereafter.

In those 27 years since 1986 that the leagues have been employing different formats in their respective finals (26 seasons in the case of the NHL owing to The Great Lockout of 2004-2005), they have paved somewhat different roads in crowning champions.

At first blush, there seems to be no difference between the leagues in terms of the season’s ultimate game.  In the NBA the Larry O’Brien Trophy was awarded to the league champion in the vanquished team’s arena 12 times in 27 seasons.  In the NHL the Stanley Cup was presented to the captain of the league champion 13 times in the opponent’s rink.  Away teams have done quite well in clinching titles.

Look deeper, though.  In the case of the NBA 11 series in 27 years went only four or five games, those in which the higher-seeded team was the “away” team.  In eight of those 11 instances the higher-seeded team won.  Meanwhile, in the NHL there were also 11 series in 26 seasons that went four or five games.  But there is a difference here.  In the NHL, Game 4 is played on the lower-seeded team’s ice, Game 5 on the higher-seeded team’s ice. 

Did it make a difference?  In six four-game sweeps over the past 26 seasons – that fourth game played on the lower-seeded team’s ice – the home teams and the away teams split those six decisions, three apiece.  In five-game series – games played on the higher-seeded team’s ice – the home teams won three times, the away teams twice.  In short series, at least in these 11 instances, it hardly seems to have mattered much what seed or on whose ice the Cup-clinching games were played.

In long series seeding starts to matter more.  Over the last 27 seasons the NBA has played 16 series that have gone to at least a Game 6, meaning that those series always end on the higher-seeded team’s floor.  In those 16 instances, 12 times the higher-seeded team (the home team) won.  And here is where the format seems to come into play, if only a bit.  The championship was won in the NBA finals 12 times in Game 6 – again, the home team’s floor – and in eight of those instances it was won by the home team. 

But then go to the Game 7 results.  Only four times in 27 seasons has an NBA final gone to seven games.  In each of those instances covering a span of 23 seasons (from 1988 to 2010) the home team won Game 7.  Finals series do not generally reach a Game 7 because home teams clinch in Game 6.

On the other hand, the NHL has had 15 long series (lasting six or seven games) over the past 26 seasons.  Seven of them were clinched in Game 6 – on the opponent’s ice.  This is where seeding takes over.  The higher-seeded team won six times in seven on the opponent’s ice. 

The difference carries over into Game 7 as well.  Eight times in the last 26 seasons (six times in the last 11) the Stanley Cup finals have gone to a Game 7.  Six times the home team – the higher seeded team – won the Cup, although it is worth noting that the two instances in which the visiting lower-seeded team won the Cup came in the last two Games 7, in 2009 (Pittsburgh, in Detroit) and in 2011 (Boston, in Vancouver).

The differences between the NBA and NHL in format seem to be that the 2-3-2 format that grants NBA teams the extra late home game in a long series acts as an accelerant to the effects of being a higher (and presumably better in most years) seed.  Higher-seeded teams are more likely to end their series in Game 6, if not sooner.  In the NHL, seeding matters, but format seems to serve to extend series in the form of more Games 7.

In historical context, here is what you might look for in the Boston-Chicago series.  First, no team has been swept since Detroit swept Washington in four games in 1998.  In the 13 Stanley Cup finals since, the Cup has been won by the higher-seeded team ten times.  And it did not matter where that Cup-clinching game is played.  Twice the higher-seeded team clinched at home Game 5 (2002 by Detroit, 2007 by Anaheim), four times on the road in Game 6, and four times on home ice in Game 7.

This trend is mitigated somewhat by the history since the league’s lost 2005 playoffs.  In seven tournaments since then, the lower-seeded team has won the Cup three times, all of them coming in the last four playoffs, twice in Game 7.  But is that the start of a new trend, or an anomaly?  We just hope the NHL doesn’t follow in the NBA’s footsteps with the 2-3-2 format.

We’ll take Chicago in six.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Wojtek Wolski

Wojtek Wolski

“Well, it's all right, riding around in the breeze

Well, it's all right, if you live the life you please

Well, it's all right, even if the sun don't shine

Well, it's all right, we're going to the end of the line”

-- The Traveling Wilburys

Last October, we took note of something Wojtek Wolski said upon his signing with the Washington Capitals as a free agent…

"I still have a lot of life left in me.  I'm at a point in my career where I'm at a crossroads, and I've got to make it work."

What we did not do was finish the quote.  Here is the entire quote…

“I still have a lot of life left in me. I’m at a point in my career where I’m at a crossroads and I’ve got to make it work and I think I’m ready and able. It’s going to be a great year.”

Wolski might have been ready; he played briefly with KH Sanok in the Polish Hockey Superleague during The Great Lockout of 2012-2013.  He might have been able; after all, he did record 95 goals and 257 points in 424 games in a seven-year NHL career.  However, it was not a great year. 

Wolski finished the 2013 season with the Caps 4-5-9, plus-1 in 27 games, almost a point for point reproduction of the “Florida Panthers” portion of his 2011-2012 season where he went 4-5-9, minus-3 in 22 games.

It was a curious season of ice time atrophy for Wolski. He played in each of the Caps’ first 19 games, but managed only a 2-2-4, minus-5 scoring line.  He played in four of the ten games in the third ten-game segment (2-2-4, plus-4), three games in the fourth ten-game segment (0-0-0, plus-1) and finally just one game in the final eight of the 48-game season (0-1-1, plus-1).  His ice time dwindled from a shade under 15 minutes a game in those first 19 games to just over 12 minutes in the four games in the third ten-game segment to seven-and-a-half in the three games in the fourth ten-game segment to 7:15 in his only appearance in the last eight-game segment.

It is a bit of a mystery how Wolski came to be a healthy scratch more often as the season wore on.  Among Caps forwards appearing in at least 20 games he had the best raw Corsi value at 5-on-5, and he was third in Corsi value on-ice relative to the value off-ice (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  From that perspective his possession numbers were certainly adequate. 

His goals scored per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 were middle of the pack among those Caps forwards, as were his primary assists.  His scoring did not appear to be an obvious problem.

But there were numbers that jumped out.  The team save percentage with Wolski on ice was second worst among Caps forwards, contributing to his team-worst PDO value among forwards at 5-on-5.  His team goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was ninth among forwards (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  He did not suffer a large volume of total goals scored against (12th among all forwards), but his 12 team goals scored against in 27 games was not much different from the 14 goals scored against with Mathieu Perreault on ice.  The difference was that Perreault realized that total in 39 games and almost 100 more minutes of total ice time than Wolski.

Odd Wolski Statistic…  “Three.”  Wolski spent three seconds this season on the penalty kill.  Not three seconds per game… three seconds, total.  It was the lowest such number on the team among all 28 skaters who dressed for the Caps.

Game to Remember… March 7^th vs. Florida.  The March 7^th contest against the Florida Panthers was more or less Wolski’s season.  His goal at 3:10 of the first period giving the Caps a 2-0 lead would prove to be the game-winning goal.  He did a fine job of walking around defenseman Colby Robak at the goal line, collecting the puck off the skirt of the net and stuffing it under goalie Jacob Markstrom.  That being the second goal of the evening on the Caps’ first two shots, Markstrom’s evening was over.  Wolski’s evening was just beginning.  He assisted on a power play goal by Eric Fehr, a sweet pass through the crease to Fehr in the left wing circle setting up the score.  Then he put the cherry on the sundae, setting up Mathieu Perreault with a little spin-o-rama pass at the Florida blue line to spring Perreault in on relief goalie Scott Clemmensen to end the night’s scoring in a 7-1 Caps win.  Wolski finished with a third of his point total for the season, going 1-2-3, plus-2, in 12:15 in ice time.

Game to Forget… April 9^th at Montreal.  In what would be his penultimate game as a Capital, Wolski skated only eight shifts in Bell Centre (his lowest total of the season), only one of those in the third period of what would be 3-2 win for the Caps.  No goals, no assists, no points, no shots.

Post Season… Wolski did not dress for any of the seven games in the opening round series against the New York Rangers.

In the end…

Wolski’s tenure with the Caps is already past tense.  On May 20^th – one week after the Caps were eliminated from the playoffs – Wolski came to terms on an agreement with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of Russia's Kontinental Hockey League.  His was a low risk signing, probably worth it even in retrospect to see if he could recapture the sort of 50-point production he enjoyed in his rookie season.  Truth be told, his scoring line on an 82-game basis (12-15-27) was not far off the prognosto for him last October (15-19-34).  But he just could not find a niche in the lineup and did not do enough to instill confidence in his production on a consistent basis.  What it means is that it is entirely possible that Washington was the end of the line for Wolski in the NHL at the too-soon age of 27.

Grade: C-

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Joel Ward

Joel Ward

“Think simple…reduce the whole of its parts into the simplest terms, getting back to first principles.”

-- Frank Lloyd Wright

It was quite an eventful end of the 2011-2012 season for Joel Ward.  In one moment, he is the hero, the toast of the town, the player whose overtime goal in Game 7 of the Washington Capitals’ opening round series against the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins propelled the Caps into the second round against the New York Rangers.  Then, in Game 5 of that second round series, Ward was whistled for a double-minor high sticking penalty with 21.3 seconds left in regulation time and the Caps holding a 2-1 lead.  The Rangers scored on both ends of the power play, tying the game with 6.6 seconds left in regulation, then winning it 1:35 into overtime, denying the Caps the opportunity to take a 3-2 games lead back home to Washington for Game 6.  The Caps won Game 6 but lost the series in Game 7.

Then, in the off-season Ward had sports hernia surgery.  One might be forgiven if Ward just wanted to play the simple sort of game in 2013 that does not get much in terms of notoriety, but yields dividends in the win column.  

In a way the start to Ward’s 2013 season was a carbon copy of the start of his 2011-2012 season.  Ward posted four goals in his first seven games of the 2013 season, besting his four goals in his first 12 games of the 2011-2012 season.  Then, he went cold.  Not “2011-2012 cold,” where he would go 25 consecutive games without a goal, but he did manage only four goals over his last 32 games of the season.  His regular season ended early when he blocked a Sami Salo shot with his leg in a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 7^th.

Ward is not a player who will drive offensive numbers.  His role is more to chip in offense when the opportunities present themselves, to help keep bad things happening on defense, and to win physical battles in the corners and along the wall.  In that respect you would have to say he did his job.  Eight goals was not a lot, especially given his finish to the regular season, but it did tie Nicklas Backstrom for fifth among Capital forwards.  It also represented what might have been a tie for his career best on a goals-per-82 game basis (17, tied with his 2008-2009 finish in Nashville).  He also finished sixth among Capital forwards in assists.

Ward’s possession numbers ranked high on the club at 5-on-5.  His raw on-ice Corsi value was third among 14 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, his on-ice Corsi value relative to his off-ice value fifth among that group of forwards.  His plus-minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was third among the Caps forwards, and only Eric Fehr had a better differential of plus-minus on-ice to plus-minus off-ice.

The plus-minus figures reflect solid defense, if not due solely to Ward, then at least in his presence.  His goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was fifth best among Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, as was his on-ice save percentage for.

Odd Ward Statistic… “112.”  Joel Ward played in 111 games as a Capital without recording a game-winning goal.  That streak ended on April 7^th against Tampa Bay.  His goal at 16:21 of the second period put the Caps ahead to stay in what would be a 4-2 win over the Lightning.  It also was his last game of the regular season after he took that Sami Salo shot off his knee in the third period.

Game to Remember… January 27^th vs. Buffalo.  The Caps stubbed their toe early under their new coach, Adam Oates.  They were 0-3-1 in their first four games of the 2013 season and wer coming off a tough 3-2 overtime loss to New Jersey.  It did not look to be getting any better when the Buffalo Sabres scored first in their January 27^th game at Verizon Center.  However, with the clock winding down to four minutes left in the first period, Joel Ward beat Cody Hodgson to a loose puck in the Buffalo end as it was sliding toward the blue line.  Ward kept the puck in and dumped to the right wing wall where Mike Ribeiro picked it up.  Ribeiro sent the puck down to Jason Chimera at the goal line extended, from where Chimera one-timed the puck to the crease.  Goalie Ryan Miller got a piece of it, but he managed only to redirect it into the slot.  Ward was right there to swat it past Miller to tie the game.  He would add an assist to put the Caps ahead when he circled in the Olympia corner with the puck, then found John Erskine at the left point.  Erskine walked up the wall and flicked a harmless looking wrist shot that eluded Miller, giving the Caps a 2-1 lead on their way to a 3-2 win and Oates’ first win as head coach for the Caps.

Game to Forget… March 12^th vs. Carolina.  Joel Ward was on ice for 16 even strength goals against in the 2013 season.  Three of them were recorded in the March 12^th game against Carolina.  Throw in the shorthanded goal Carolina scored into an empty net for which Ward was on the ice, and the minus-4 he recorded for this game was a career-worst.  Add in that he took a high-sticking penalty and did not record a shot on goal, and this 4-0 Carolina win was a very forgettable game.

Post Season… Ward tied for the team lead in points in the seven-game series against the New York Rangers.  He had one of the Caps’ two power play goals for the series.  He tied for the team lead in shooting percentage (12.5 percent).  Normally, one might think he had a prolific performance.  But a 1-3-4 scoring line in seven games is fine for a third liner.  It is not a scoring line that should have been tied for second on the team in goals (tied with nine other players), or tied for the top spot in assists, or tied in total points.  The other side of that coin is that he was on ice for more even strength goals against than any Caps forward except Jay Beagle.  All five goals against for which Ward was on the ice came in Caps’ losses in the series.

In the end…

There was good and not so good in Joel Ward’s season.  There was the fast start, and there was the long drought.  There was the rugged play in hard areas of the ice that prevented a lot of scoring, but he was one of a number of Caps who could not replicate that performance in the post-season.  He did not have the wild ups and downs (ok, up and down) in the playoffs that he experienced last season, but he did not distinguish himself in this year’s post season, either.  And on that basis, evaluating his season is not a process given to simplicity.  One cannot help but think, though, that it just did not quite fit together.

Grade: B-

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mike Ribeiro

Mike Ribeiro

“The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.”

-- John Foster Dulles

When the Washington Capitals traded Cody Eakin and a draft pick to the Dallas Stars for Mike Ribeiro on June 22, 2012, folks might have been pardoned for thinking that the Caps solved a long-standing problem – finding someone who could reliably center the second line.  The Capitals did not have what one might call an incumbent in that position since Sergei Fedorov played 52 games there in the 2008-2009 season. 

Oh, they tried, all right.  Brendan Morrison got a shot for one season.  Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson, Mathieu Perreault, Jason Arnott, Eric Belanger… all of them had a turn (or more). 

With Mike Ribeiro, the Caps had a bona fide scoring line center with eight consecutive seasons of more than 50 points on his resume.  The Caps did not have a full-time center not named “Backstrom” record 50 points in a season since Michael Nylander had 56 points in 2002-2003.

Ribeiro was as advertised.  He finished second on the club in total scoring (49 points), third in goals, tied for first in the league in power play scoring (with teammate Alex Ovechkin).  He was arguably the Caps’ most valuable player in the first half of the season, going 9-19-28, plus-3 in his first 22 games.

But all was not smooth sailing, at least at 5-on-5.  Ribeiro spent most of his 5-on-5 ice time in the 2013 season with Troy Brouwer and Alex Ovechkin.  He also spent large chunks of full and even strength time with Jason Chimera and Brooks Laich.  In the case of Brouwer, Ovechkin, and Laich, those players fared worse in terms of team goals scored for per 20 minutes (GF20 at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) skating with Ribeiro than they did when apart.

Ribeiro’s 5-on-5 possession numbers were nothing to get excited about, either.  Among 14 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, he had the second worst raw Corsi on-ice value and the second worst Corsi on-ice relative to off-ice.  And there was the matter of his taking more than twice as many penalties per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time as he drew.

We can put his even strength effectiveness in another context.  Ribeiro tied for 71^st in even strength points this season, one point behind Chicago’s Bryan Bickell and one more than the player for whom he was traded, Cody Eakin.

Even on the power play there was a sense of there being less there than a first look might suggest.  Yes, Ribeiro tied for the league lead in power play points with teammate Alex Ovechkin.  His six power play goals tied for 18^th in the league, but he had only one power play goal in his last 32 games.  He did close with a rush in power play assists, recording eight in his last eight games of the regular season, but that came after recording only three power play assists in his previous 18 games.

Odd Ribeiro Statistic… “29.0.”  Mike Ribeiro connected on nine of 31 shots on goal in his first 22 games, a 29.0 percent shooting percentage.  He was only four for 32 in his last 26 games (12.5 percent) but still finished fifth in the league at 20.6 percent.  It was the second time in his career he finished over 20 percent for the season in shooting percentage (25.2 percent in 2007-2008 with Dallas).

Game to Remember… April 20^th at Montreal.  It might seem odd that the game picked here would be one in which Mike Ribeiro did not record a shot attempt, but he was a factor nonetheless.  It was his faceoff win against Lars Eller back to Karl Alzner that started a play on which Troy Brouwer scored barely a minute after the Caps took a 1-0 lead in the first period.  It was Ribeiro winning a battle along the wall against Francis Bouillon, sliding the puck to Marcus Johansson, who fed Brouwer for another goal to make it 3-0.  Then, with the score 4-0 and the Caps on a power play, it was Ribeiro faking a shot from the right point, and starting a ‘round-the-horn passing play, feeding Mike Green, who sent the puck along to Alex Ovechkin for a shot from the left-wing circle that beat goalie Carey Price.  Ribeiro had three assists in the 5-1 win at Bell Centre, his first three-assist game since October 15, 2011 with the Dallas Stars against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Game to Forget… March 10^th vs. New York Rangers.  After a three-game winning streak to start the month of March, during which Ribeiro was 3-3-6, plus-5, the Caps laid an egg on Long Island, losing to the Islanders, 5-2.  The Caps were looking to get back on track at home against the Rangers.  The Rangers would have none of it, though, and Ribeiro had a forgettable game.  In 20:39 of ice time he managed just one shot on goal, lost the only faceoff he took, was sent off for a roughing penalty in the third period, and was on ice for three of the four Ranger goals in a 4-1 Caps loss.

Post Season… The warts that might have been hidden in Ribeiro’s regular season, especially at even strength, came out in the first round series loss to the Rangers.  His 20-plus shooting percentage of the regular season did not make itself known in the series, scoring only one goal on 13 shots in the seven-game series (it did happen to be the overtime game-winning goal in Game 5).  He had one assist, that coming in a Game 2 win. He happened to be on ice for the last four Ranger goals and then took a ten-minute misconduct in the last four minutes in the 5-0 Game 7 loss.  He finished 1-1-2, minus-2 for the series.

In the end…

Was Mike Ribeiro the solution to the second line center problem the Caps have had?  That is not an easy question to answer.  He was certainly more productive than any second line center the Caps have had in at least a decade.  Then again, a lot of that production was obtained on the league’s best power play, he being the trigger man from the goal line extended on the top unit.  At even strength his 0.46 points-per-game was not significantly different from Marcus Johansson’s 0.48 even strength points per game in 2011-2012.  That unremarkable even strength production became important in the playoffs against the Rangers, and it contributed to the Caps’ demise, the team scoring only nine-even strength goals in the seven-game series.

The question now becomes, “is Mike Ribeiro the answer as the second-line center going forward?”  The realities of the salary cap might answer that question for the Caps.  There is not much room to do what the club might like to do in re-signing restricted free agents Karl Alzner or Marcus Johansson.  The other part of the issue is even if the Caps could afford Ribeiro, who might sign a contract north of the $5.0 million cap hit that is expiring, would it be a value signing given the level of even-strength contribution he made this season?  And if not him, then to whom do the Caps turn to solve the perennial problem of who centers the second line?

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault

“One that would have the fruit must climb the tree.”

-- Thomas Fuller

Looking at Mathieu Perreault’s 2013 season with the Caps it is helpful to take a moment and look back at how he got here.  Caps fans will recall that he was a sixth-round pick in the 2006 Entry Draft, the 177^th overall pick.  From that draft, 85 draftees have seen at least one game of NHL action, 74 of them skaters.  Only one of those 74 skaters picked after Perreault – Derek Dorsett (drafted by Columbus 189^th overall, now of the New York Rangers) – has played in more NHL games than the 159 recorded by Perreault through the 2013 season.  No player picked after Perreault has more goals than the 33 he has, and he has more goals than 43 skaters selected ahead of him.  Only 25 of those skaters have more career points.

Perreault has come a long way.

That said, he is still a player in search of a role.  Perreault, normally thought of as an offense-oriented player, logged most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr, with a healthy sprinkling of time with Joel Ward thrown in.  These three are not generally thought of as offensive drivers, but Perreault seemed to get more out of them on that side of the puck than others with whom they played.  In the case of all three, they recorded more team goals for at 5-on-5 per 20 minutes (GF20 at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) with Perreault than they did when apart from him.  Their possession numbers were better with Perreault as well, as their Corsi for and Corsi against per 20 minutes at 5-on-5 attest (stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

What Perreault lacked individually was a sense of consistency, at least as revealed in his “tens.”  He played in only five of the Caps’ first ten games, failing to record a point.  He lit up in the next two ten-game splits, playing in a total of 16 of the 20 games, going 5-7-12, plus-7 in those contest.  He regressed in his fourth ten-game split, playing in all ten games to a 0-1-1, minus-2 scoring line, then rebounding some in his last eight games with a 1-3-4, plus-4 finish.

Perreault did evidence a gift for setting up teammates.  At 5-on-5 no Capital forward had a better first assists-per-60 minutes figure than Perreault.  And this was with players, by and large, who are not consistent goal scorers. And whatever one’s impression of Perreault’s defense, the results while he was on the ice did not feed a narrative of his being suspect on that side of the puck.  At 5-on-5, among 14 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games he had the fifth best goals against per 60 minutes and had a positive differential between goals scored against on ice versus goals scored against off ice (+0.23; numbers from behindthenet.ca). 

His individual possession numbers looked good as well, recording the second best raw Corsi on-ice and the second-best Corsi on-ice relative to off-ice.  It all translated into a PDO value (sum of shooting percentage and save percentage on ice) that was second best on the team at 5-on-5 among forwards playing in at least 20 games.  The picture painted is one of a solid year, but there is a “but”…

Odd Perreault Statistic… “Two.”  Here is the "but."  In 22 games against teams outside the Southeast Division, Perreault recorded a total of two even-strength points, both in the same game, a 5-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres on St. Patrick’s Day when he recorded a goal and an assist.

Game to Remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  It was a long road that the Caps took to their April 23^rd game against the Winnipeg Jets, but there they were, finally in a position to clinch the Southeast Division.  The Caps started fact with goals from Matt Hendricks and Jason Chimera in the first period, Perreault earning he primary assist on the latterwhen he played catch behind the Jets’ net with Chimera before setting him up for the score in front of goalie Ondrej Pavelec.  Winnipeg tied the game with a pair of goals in the second period, then Nicklas Backstrom returned the Caps to the lead late in the period.  The period might have ended with the Caps up, 3-2, but Perreault converted what would be a broken play with less than three minutes left in the period.  It started when Perreault entered the Jet’s zone in the middle of the ice.  He left a drop pass for Eric Fehr, who had his shot attempt blunted by the stick of Alexander Burmistrov.  Jack Hillen followed up on the loose puck and fired it on goal, Pavelec making the initial save.  But Perreault stuck his nose – or more precisely, his stick – into the pile and chipped the puck past Pavelec.  When Winnipeg scored in the third period, that became the potential game-winning goal, and when the Caps held on for the 5-3 win, it was the Division-clinching goal for the Caps.

Game to Forget… January 19^th at Tampa Bay. With a new coach in town, players want to make a good first impression.  Even those who might be role players, such as Mathieu Perreault.  Such was the case on Opening Night when the Caps took the ice in Tampa to face the Lightning.  If good first impressions were what Perreault was trying to give, things did not work out quite that way.  On his first shift of the game, Tampa Bay scored.  Over the first two period he skated a total of four shifts of no particular consequence, save for that goal against.  Then in the third period he took a penalty, the Lightning scoring what would be the game-winning goal on the ensuing power play. It was his last shift of the night.  Five shifts, 3:52 in ice time, no shots attempted, no points, a penalty and a minus-1.  Good impression…not.

Post Season… Things looked pretty good for Perreault in Games 1-4 of the first round series against the New York Rangers.  A goal, three assists, plus-3.  But then there were those last three games… no points, only three shots on goal.  Sure, he finished the round tied for the team lead in points, tied for the team lead in plus-minus, and tied for the team lead in goals.  But none of that came in Games 5-7 when the Caps lost two of three games and scored only two goals in the process, none in Games 6 or 7.  His personal numbers looked good over seven games (second in Corsi on-ice at 5-on-5 among forwards playing in at least four games, second in team shooting percentage on ice, second in on-ice team save percentage, second best PDO value), but in context, it was good early, not so good late…just like the rest of the club.

In the end…

It is a bit hard to know what to make of Perreault’s season.  On the one hand, he did quite well with linemates who might not otherwise be thought of as offensive stalwarts.  On the other, he lacked a certain consistency in his production.  On the one hand, his underlying numbers looked rather good, even in the post season.  On the other, he was invisible in the last three games of the playoff series against the Rangers (he was by no means alone).  On the one hand, his points pace was not far off his career-best pace of last year, this despite his personal shooting percentage dropping by more than half.  On the other, most of that was built on his production against the Southeast Division, not the strongest of competition.  We are left at the end of the season where we started with Perreault, looking at a lot of questions.  Can he be counted on for a solid 82-games of play (64, set last season, remains his career high)?  Can he assume a steady role as a number-two center, a question that takes on more urgency with the uncertainty surrounding Mike Ribeiro’s return to the Caps?  Can he stand up to the increased physical abuse he might endure next season in the new division into which the Caps have been realigned?  It has been a long climb from being that 177^th overall draft pick in 2006.  But this season, Perreault seems to have paused in that climb.  It is not entirely of his own doing, but the climb will resume only when those lingering questions are addressed.

Grade: B-

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.”

-- Napoleon Bonaparte

If Alex Ovechkin averages 25 goals per season over the remainder of his contract, he will stand at the edge of the top 20 goals scorers of all time in the NHL. If he averages a sliver more than 30 per season, he will be among the top 15 goal scorers of all time.  Do you know how many players in the top-15 who have never won a Stanley Cup?

Two: Marcel Dionne and Mike Gartner

Winning a Stanley Cup is not the only measure of greatness in evaluating the career of an NHL player, but if a player is going to be mentioned among the best who ever played, he has to win at least one.  Ten of the top-15 goal scorers have won multiple Cups.

And yet here we are, Ovechkin having completed his eighth season – his sixth consecutive one that included a trip to the playoffs – and he is no closer now to a Cup now than he was at the end of his first playoff season.

It is not fair, to be sure, but it is the world of sport in which he plays, fans cheer and sports journalists cast their votes over the span of years for those considered the “greatest” instead of “great.”  The 2013 season, abbreviated by the mindless nonsense that was The Great Lockout of 2012-2013, probably cost him as many as 20 goals in his career goal total, but more importantly, might have cost him – and his team – 34 regular season games with which to master more completely the systems of new head coach Adam Oates and perhaps make a bigger dent in the playoffs.

One really can wonder what those 34 games might have meant to Ovechkin and the Caps.  Look at his goal progression through the “tens” – two in his first ten games, when the Caps were off to a 2-7-1 start, six in his next ten, then five, then 13 in his fourth ten-game split.  He had “only” six in his last eight games, itself a 60-goal pace.  That progression followed nicely the ten-game win-loss progression of the Caps:

1^st ten: 2-7-1

2^nd ten: 6-4-0

3^rd ten: 5-5-0

4^th ten: 8-1-1

Last 8 games: 6-1-1

Now, let us start to unpack those numbers.  Ovechkin finished the season with 32 goals to lead the league, a 55-goal pace over 82 games.  But here is the thing about those goals.  Only 14 of them were scored at 5-on-5.  Five players scored more goals at 5-on-5, including Carolina’s Jiri Tlusty (not generally thought of as a household name among goal scorers), and it was only one more than Derek Stepan, Michael Grabner, and Blake Wheeler, among others.

With Ovechkin’s talents as a finisher, one would expect that those with whom he plays would enjoy more offensive success as a group playing with him than playing apart from him, and this is generally the case.  At 5-on-5 the centers with whom he spent most of his time – Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Ribeiro – each had higher GF20 values (team goals scored for per 20 minutes of ice time at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) playing with Ovechkin than playing apart from him.  The exception among forwards with whom he skated more than 100 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time was Marcus Johansson.

It is no secret that Ovechkin is an offensive player, and it is a continuing theme that he has issues playing in his own end.  Hockey being a team sport, it would be hard to blame him (or any single player) for specific defensive problems, but while he had a respectable PDO value at 5-on-5 this season (sum of on-ice team shooting percentage and save percentage), it was bolstered by his having the third highest team shooting percentage at 5-on-5.  As for the other side of that value – team save percentage – he was 12^th among 14 Capitals forwards having played at least 20 games (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

His possession numbers at 5-on-5 were not particularly impressive, either.  He finished seventh in Corsi on-ice among 14 Capitals forwards playing in at least 20 games and finished in the middle of the Capitals pack in variations on that Corsi measure as computed at behindthenet.ca.  It goes some way to explain how it was that Ovechkin finished only fifth among Caps forwards in plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.  All of this was obtained while having the largest share of offensive zone starts among all of those Capital forwards.

Odd Ovechkin Statistic… “23.”  Alex Ovechkin played his last 23 games of the regular season without going consecutive games without a goal.  He scored goals in 17 of those games, going 23-13-36, plus-9.  Ten of those 23 goals were scored on the power play.

Game to Remember… February 23^rd vs. New Jersey.  The Caps were looking for a life saver.  With a record of 5-10-1, losers of two straight, they were sitting in last place in the Eastern Conference.  As luck, or the NHL schedule-makers, would have it, the Caps were coming off a 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils in their previous game in which they gave up a 2-1 lead after two periods.  Now, they got a chance to redeem themselves against those same Devils.  Alex Ovechkin got a chance to redeem himself, too.  He was on ice for all three goals against in the 3-2 loss.

Redeem himself, he did.  After a scoreless first period, Ovechkin scored on a wrist shot with less than six minutes gone in the second frame.  After Ilya Kovalchuk tied it for the Devils before the second intermission, Ovechkin gave the Caps the lead once more in the second minute of the third period.  Then, with the Caps up 3-1, thanks to a shorthanded goal by Eric Fehr, Ovechkin drove a stake into the Devils’ chances for a comeback with a power play goal with just under five minutes left.  He added an assist on a Troy Brouwer power play goal with less than three minutes left, and the Caps had a 5-1 win.  It was Ovechkin’s first hat trick in more than two years and his first four-point game since February 4, 2011 in a 5-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Game to forget… March 12^th vs. Carolina.  The Caps were coming off losses to the New York teams – the Islanders and Rangers – and looking bad in the process, both losses of the three-goal variety.  Facing a Southeast Division team at home seemed just the tonic.  It tasted more like vinegar to the Caps.  Carolina slowly and methodically ground the Caps down over the first 40 minutes, outshooting the Caps by a 31-19 margin and building a 3-0 lead in the process.  Carolina added an empty net shorthanded goal (for which Ovechkin was on the ice) to complete the 4-0 shutout and leave Washington with the Caps on a three-game losing streak.  Ovechkin recorded no shots on goal for the contest.  Oddly enough, it was the second straight game against Carolina in which he pulled that off.  They were the only two regular season games in which he did not record a shot on goal.

Post Season… The Caps made the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season in 2013.  In the first three appearances in that streak, Alex Ovechkin went 20-20-40, plus-14 in 28 games.  Since then, in his last three post-season appearances he is 11-10-21, minus-5 in 30 games and only 6-9-10 in 19 games of series the Caps ultimately lost.  In 2013 against the New York Rangers he was 1-1-2, minus-2 in seven games. 

And here is the oddest part of all about those numbers.  He scored his lone goal of the series 6:59 into the second period of Game 1, a 3-1 win for the Caps.  He did not register another shot on goal in that game.  Then, in Games 2-7 he went 0-for-25 shooting.  He did not register a point after Game 2.  In the three games ending in Caps’ wins in the series, Ovechkin recorded 21 shots on goal.  In the four losses he finished with a total of nine shots on goal.  This is not difficult math.  Even if he was not effective, his shot volumes were indicative of the sort of pressure the Caps could put on the Rangers.  Absent those shot volumes, the Caps lost (even as they scored three goals twice in losses).  This was, to be charitable, not a post-season that will go in the scrapbook.  Maybe the scrap heap.

In the end…

Twenty years from now, unless he is spirited away by aliens, Alex Ovechkin is going to be one of the most prolific goal scorers ever to wear an NHL sweater.  It is entirely possible that he will do it without having won a Stanley Cup.  In that case he will be more a historical curiosity than a player mentioned with the greats.  That is just the way it is.  In 2013 he did some fine things, but they had the more than a faint whiff of “been there, done that.”  Leading goal scorer…been there, done that.  Scored a bushel of power play goals…been there, done that.  Hit like a freight train…been there, done that.  Unfortunately, there is also “early playoff exit”…been there, done that.  And this year, as has been the case in the previous two post-seasons, it was not a case of his performing valiantly in the face of disappointment.  His production just has not been there.  2013 was his least productive post-season since he was an 18-year old playing for Dynamo Moscow (no points in three playoff games).  A Richard Trophy for most goals and nomination as a Hart Trophy finalist is not nothing, but it is now the post season on which he will be judged in the history of the sport.  He has to produce.  This year, he did not.

Grade: B-

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America