Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 19

Week 19 was the kind of week in which everyone wants to do well.  The last week before the Olympic break, everyone wants to do well to feel good about themselves as they prepare for either a trip to Sochi to compete on the international stage or for a couple of weeks off from the NHL grind.  Then there is the matter of setting oneself up for the stretch run to follow, because once clubs do resume play, it will be 25 or fewer games left in the regular season, and the sprint will be on.  For the Washington Capitals, Week 19 set up the Olympic break about as well as could be expected.

Record: 3-1-0

A lot of good things can be said about Week 19.  It was the first winning week for the Caps since Week 15.  It was also their first three-win week of the season.  The Caps broke a seven-game losing streak against Metropolitan Division teams.  They went 2-1-0 against Eastern Conference teams and jumped into fifth place in the division, one point out of a playoff spot.

But there was also that “1.”  That one loss for the week, a 1-0 decision dropped to the New York Islanders.  The Islanders were a team nine points behind the Caps on Tuesday night when the teams met in Washington, a team on a five-game losing streak, a team that allowed 21 goals in those five games.  The Caps could not solve them or goalie Evgeni Nabokov for any, though, and the 1-0 decision was the only thing keeping the Caps from their first four-win week since April 7-13 last season.

Offense:  3.25/game (season: 2.76 / rank: 13th)

The Caps built on a solid Week 18 in offensive production.  Or so the raw numbers would suggest.  Thirteen goals in a four-game week is the kind of production one would look for on offense, but almost half of that came in a 6-5 overtime decision over the Detroit Red Wings, a game in which the Caps held three two-goal leads.  From an offensive point of view the Caps persevered in that game despite the let downs at the other end. 

The rest of the week, though, did not impress.  Getting shut out by the Islanders, a team that went into the game 29^th in the league in scoring defense, was difficult to believe, even if the goalie doing the shutting out was one (Evgeni Nabokov) with a history of mastering the Caps.  That game was the obvious example of offensive inconsistency.  The game to close the week, against the New Jersey Devils, threatened to put to sleep anyone watching.  The teams combined for 44 shots and no goals over the first 50:50 of the game.  At that point, things took a turn.  Julien Brouillette scored his first NHL goal.  Then Martin Erat scored his first goal of the season, an empty netter with 1:11 left.  Thirty six seconds after that, Troy Brouwer scored his first empty net goal of the season, and the Caps had what looked like a convincing 3-0 win. 

Speaking of Brouwer, he led the Caps with a four-goal week.  For Brouwer it was a welcome change from the one goal in 14 games he was sporting coming into the week.  He jumped past Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Chimera, and Mikhail Grabovski into third place on the club in goals. Nicklas Backstrom did not have a goal for the week, but he did have five assists and went into the Olympic break third in the league in helpers, trailing only Joe Thornton and Sidney Crosby.  Joel Ward had a pair of goals for the Caps to reach 17 for the season, matching his career high set in the 2008-2009 season with the Nashville Predators.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.85 / rank: 22nd)

The defense was something of a mirror image of the offense in that allowing eight goals for the week sounds worse than it really was.  Five of those goals came against Detroit to open the week, a game in which the Caps let three two-goal leads get away.  But what the Caps did over the four-game week was hold teams down in shots.  Only once, a 36-shot performance by the Winnipeg Jets, did the Caps allow an opponent more than 30 shots.  It continued a quiet trend for the Caps.  Heading into the Olympic break the Caps have allowed 30 or fewer shots in nine of their last 11 games.

The underlying numbers did not look so good, though.  In 5-on-5 close score situations the Caps were under water in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages in three of the four games for the week.  Overall the Caps had a Corsi-for percentage of 47.8 and a Fenwick-for percentage of 47.9.  Oddly enough, the one game in which the Caps were above 50 percent in both measures was, you guessed it, the 1-0 loss to the Islanders.

Goaltending: 1.99 GAA / .933 SV (season: 2.68 / .916 / 3 SO)

Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby split the goaltending duties this week, Neuvirth getting the first two games and Holtby the last two.  Neuvirth opened the week a bit shaky, allowing five goals on 30 shots in the Caps’ 6-5 overtime win over the Red Wings on Sunday.  It was not a case of leaky defense in front of him in every case, either.  A rebound left in the low slot led to Detroit’s first goal, a shot from a low angle fooled him on the second, a backhander slithered through his pads for the fifth goal that sent the game to overtime. 

Neuvirth was much sharper in his other appearance, allowing only a third-period goal through a screen on 28 shots faced, keeping the Caps in the contest when the Islanders peppered him with 13 shots in that third period.

When Neuvirth took ill on Thursday, Braden Holtby took over in net and turned in a fine performance against Winnipeg.  Holtby turned away 28 of 30 shots over the first 40 minutes to keep the game tied before the Caps won the third period, 2-0, and the game by a 4-2 margin.

Holtby got the nod in the last game of the week and did himself one, or rather two, better.  He stopped all 25 shots sent upon him by the New Jersey Devils to earn his third shutout of the season and his tenth career whitewashing.  That tenth career shutout made Holtby the fourth goaltender in franchise history to hit double digits in shutouts, trailing only Jim Carey, Don Beaupre, and Olaf Kolzig.

Power Play: 3-for-20 / 15.0 percent (season:  percent 21.4 / T-4th)

One of the things we look for on special teams is shots per minute.  Put enough pressure on a defense and goaltender in those situations, they will crack.  In the first game of the week the Caps managed nine shots in 8:01 of power play time over six power plays.  They got variety, too.  Three shots from Alex Ovechkin (one goal), two from Nicklas Backstrom, and single shots from Martin Erat, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward (a goal), and John Carlson (a goal).

The rest of the week was not nearly as productive.  In the other three games of the week the Caps failed to average more than a shot per power play minute, going 0-for-20 overall in 26:27 of power play time over 14 power plays. Part of it was opponents holding Ovechkin’s shot totals down (he had four of those 20 shots over the last three games of the week).

The odd part about the shots was the performance against the Islanders.  The Caps went 0-for-7 on their own power play but also allowed five shorthanded shots to the Isles.  That was not all.  The Caps allowed two shorthanded shots to both Winnipeg and New Jersey in the last two games of the week, making the power play shot totals an unlikely 20-9 for the Caps in the last three games of the week.

Penalty Killing: 10-12 / 83.3 percent (season: 81.3 percent / T-17th)

The week started poorly and ended well.  After allowing the Red Wings two power play goals in three opportunities, the Caps shut out the Islanders, Winnipeg, and New Jersey on nine chances to end the week.  The Caps did a good job limiting opportunities with opponents getting only 12 power play chances for the week.  Once confronted with shorthanded situations, the Caps shook off the poor performance against Detroit and held the last three opponents for the week to just 14 shots on goal in 14:57 of power play time.  Putting the week another way, Detroit’s Gustav Nyquist was 2-for-3 shooting against the Caps on the power play.  Washington was 15-for-15 stopping everyone else.

What the Caps could not replicate, though, was an ability to generate any threats when shorthanded.  The Caps did not have a shorthanded shot on goal for the week.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 10-6 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.92 / rank: 21st)

Win even-strength, win the week.  Tying even strength got the Caps to overtime against the Red Wings, where they won on a power play.  They lost the even-strength battle to the Islanders, then the game, by a 1-0 margin.  They then outscored Winnipeg and New Jersey by a combined 7-2 margin (two of the goals being empty netters). 

Here is the thing, though.  The Caps were outshot for the week at even strength, 90-77.  The only game in which they won that battle came against the Devils by a 21-19 margin, the two goal difference a product of the two empty net goals at the end.

Faceoffs: 134-236 / 56.8 percent (season: 49.8 percent / rank: 17th)

The Caps won each game, won each zone, and won the week in the circle.  Washington was especially successful in the defensive zone, winning it in all four games and going 47-for-73 for the week in that end (64.4 percent).  No Capital was under 50 percent in the defensive zone for the week, the team being led in draws taken by Nicklas Backstrom (11-for-14) and Jay Beagle (10-for-20). 

Backstrom was a beast in the offensive end as well, taking 33 of the total of 83 offensive zone draws for the week.  He won 18 of them, a 54.6 percent winning percentage.

If there was the unusual, it was Eric Fehr and Casey Wellman taking more than 30 draws apiece.  Fehr was 21-for-34 for the week (61.8 percent), including a 10-for-12 effort against Detroit.  Wellman was 9-for-10 against Winnipeg on his way to a 21-for-32 week (65.6 percent).

Goals For/Against by Period:

The third period was big for the Caps on offense this week, seven goals in all.  That is a bit unusual for the Caps, a club that finished the week tied with five other teams for 17^th in the league in third period goals scored.  Five different Caps had third period goals, three of them scored by Troy Brouwer (including an empty netter).

The second period, which has been kindest to the Caps on offense this season, saw but a single goal scored, that one by Joel Ward in the 6-5 overtime win over Detroit to open the week.

One thing the Caps did manage to do was extend the total of goals allowed within two minutes of scoring one.  In the third period of their win over the Red Wings the Caps allowed a goal by Justin Abdelkader 1:57 after Troy Brouwer scored for the Caps. It was the 24th time this season the Caps allowed a score less than two minutes after their own score.

In the end…

The Caps were 3-1-0 for the week and take a 5-2-1 record in their last eight games into the Olympic break.  A good record to have, to be sure, but the Caps dug themselves a hole out of which they still need to climb.  While Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Martin Erat, and Marcus Johansson are in Sochi, the rest of the club and the brain trust are going to have to find a way to parlay that record into something as good or better after the break when the schedule gets much tougher.  The Caps will have the second toughest schedule in the East after the break by one measure, the toughest overall by another. 

Compounding the problem is the Caps’ regulation and overtime win (ROW) situation.  With 19 ROW, the Caps are seventh in the Metropolitan Division, 25^th in the league.  Such heavy dependence on the trick shot phase of the game for points suggests that it will be that much more difficult for the Caps to climb into the playoff eligible portion of the standings when play resumes. 

The Caps have 19 days between Week 19 and Week 20 of the season to get ready to make that climb.

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 57: Islanders 1 - Capitals 0

Nothing.

That is what the Washington Capitals had, and that is what the Washington Capitals got as they lost to the New York Islanders last night, 1-0.  The Caps wasted a fine 27-save performance by goalie Michal Neuvirth, who allowed only a screened slap shot by Andrew MacDonald two minutes into the third period and denied Michael Grabner on a penalty shot later in the third period.

At the other end, the Caps did not exactly make goalie Evgeni Nabokov work too hard for his shutout.  The 22 shots by the Caps was the lowest total allowed by the Islanders this season.  The Caps could have climbed to fifth in the Metropolitan Division and a point out of third place with a win.  As it is, they are still stuck in seventh place, just seven points ahead of the Islanders.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps had only 15 even strength shots on goal, almost half of those (seven) in the first period.

-- Live by the power play, die by the power play.  The Caps had six opportunities in each of the last two games. They scored three times against Detroit and won, 6-3.  They failed on all six opportunities against the Islanders and lost.  

-- And it could have been worse.  Only a three-save sequence by Neuvirth in the third period saved the Caps from allowing a shorthanded goal.  First there was the breakaway on the Caps power play on which Michael Grabner skated in on goal with John Carlson hooking him.  That got the referee to raise his hand to signal a penalty.  But play was not yet whistled dead, for the puck was still lying free.  Casey Cizikas took a whack at it, and Nuevirth made that save, too.  With play finally blown dead, Grabner was awarded a penalty shot.  Neuvirth kicked that aside with his right pad, and the Caps dodged a howitzer shell.

-- Going 6-for-6 on the penalty kill was the most opportunities faced by the Islanders this season in which they were 100 percent.  

-- The Caps could not generate anything from the point.  The defense had only five shots on goal, three of them by John Carlson.  Of the 17 shots for the forwards, more than a third came from Alex Ovechkin (three) and Nicklas Backstrom (three).  Eleven shots from ten other forwards.  Light night for secondary scoring.  Primary, too.

-- Karl Alzner led the team in hits (four).  Yes, Karl Alzner.  Strange night.

-- The Caps had seven shots on the power play.  The Islanders had five shots on the Caps’ power play.  Hard to tell at times who had the advantage on the Caps’ power play.

-- The Caps did not record their first shot of the third period until the 6:12 mark.  They had one shot in the last 10:32 of the game, that one from 58 feet out by Ovechkin.  

-- Cal Clutterbuck was the personification of a lot of noise signifying…well, not quite nothing, but close.  Ten shot attempts, seven hits.  No points.

-- Marcus Johansson took a penalty.  That’s news, because it is only the second time this season he was sent off for violating the rules.  He also had a shot on goal.  That makes two shots in two games.  Progress.

In the end…

There was just not a lot of there, there.  The game consumed the required 60 minutes, but it seemed as if it was a rehearsal for something than a real live game.  That suited the Islanders just fine.  The Caps?  Well, there were two points they had no excuse leaving on the table.  Missing Mike Green and Mikhail Grabovski makes a difference when facing, say, the Bruins or the Penguins.  The Islanders?  Don’t try spinning this one away by playing the injury card.  The Isles just are not that good.

Better than the Caps last night, though.  And that should cause folks to be very concerned, if they were not already.

Programming note...

We will be away for the next few days.  Maybe it will be a good luck charm for the boys.  If it is, Cheerless is not going to be happy if he has to read about how we should stop these scribbles.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 57: Islanders at Capitals, February 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is one down and three to go on this last pre-Olympic break home stand for the Washington Capitals.  Having defeated the Detroit Red Wings in the first of the four games, it is the New York Islanders next on tap for the Caps.

The Islanders arrive in Washington a team in a nosedive, losers of five straight games.  It has not mattered where or in what elements they came up short.  The first three of those losses came at home in Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, then they took it outside at Yankee Stadium where they lost to the New York Rangers.  The fifth straight loss came last Friday against those same Rangers at Madison Square Garden, leaving the Islanders cemented in eighth place in the Metropolitan Division, nine points behind the three teams immediately ahead of them, including the Caps.

Over the five-game losing streak, Kyle Okposo has done more than his share trying to keep the Islanders competitive.  Four goals in five games brings Okposo into a tie with his career high in goals, 24 in 79 games in 2011-2012.  He comes into this game with on quite a run, having gone 25 games having avoided consecutive games without a point.  He is 16-16-32 over those 25 games with points in 20 of them.  In 17 career games against Washington, Okposo is 7-6-13.

Michael Grabner is next in line in scoring during the Islanders’ five-game losing streak (2-2-4), but like much of his season it has come in fits and starts.  He has a pair of two-point games during he streak, two of five multi-point games he has this season.  On the other side, he has had a 24-game streak this season without a point.  Grabner is 2-2-4 in 13 career games against the Caps.

The Islanders have split their goaltending responsibilities roughly evenly between Evgeni Nabokov and Kevin Poulin, neither of them putting up particularly good numbers.  Poulin is 11-16-1, 3.29, .891 in his 28 appearances, while Nabokov is 9-10-5, 2.83, .907 in his 27 appearances.  It would seem likely that Nabokov get this start.  Despite missing 10 games to a lower body injury in January and losing his last two decisions, he has a fine career record against the Caps – 12-2-3, 2.32, .919, with two shutouts.

1.  The Islanders have drawn a blank on the power play in their five-game losing streak.  No goals in 20 opportunities.  Their penalty killing has fared better, although it benefits from few opportunities.  The Isles are 9-for-10 on the PK during the losing streak.

2.  Only four teams have scored fewer first period goals than the Islanders (36), and they have scored first only 23 times in 57 games.  It is not a team that usually gets off to fast starts.

3.  Only two teams have worse records in one-goal games this season than the 11-11-8 mark posted by the Islanders.  Couple that with the fact that only four teams have more losses by three or more goals, and you have a recipe for being a team sitting in 26^th place in standings points.

4. If the Caps are going to get well at 5-on-5, this might be a good team against which to do it.  Only Edmonton (131) has allowed more goals at 5-on-5 than the Islanders (128).

5.  After a short string of games in which the Islanders were evincing better possession numbers (50-plus percent in Crosri-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations), they have sunk to their previous season-long level.  They have been at or below 50 percent in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentage in each of their last four games, all losses.

1.  Washington has not won consecutive games on a home stand since winning three straight back on November 2-7 against Florida, the Islanders, and Minnesota.  They have an opportunity to break that string tonight.

2.  The Caps have scored 21 goals in their last five games.  It is their most prolific five-game stretch of goal-scoring this season (not including trick shots).  It is their best such streak since they scored 22 goals over a five-game stretch in Games 42-46 last season.

3.  The Caps still have not won a game this season when scoring fewer than three goals.  They are 0-18-5 in such games.  Fittingly, since this indicates that the Caps are not stealing games with superior goaltending on nights their offense is off, all five extra time losses have come in the freestyle competition.

4.  Is it improvement?  Or, have other teams become leakier?  The Caps spent a long time challenging the Toronto Maple Leafs to see which team could allow more shots on goal this season.  The Caps have risen, if that is the right word, to 27^th in shots allowed per game (33.5).  Ottawa and Buffalo have sunk beneath the Caps.

5.  The Caps are now in the middle third of the league in close-score possession statistics.  Don’t let out a roar just yet.  They stand 20^th in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages.  But, progress is progress.  However, they have been below 50 percent in both measures in each of their last three games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: John Tavares

He is the straw that stirs the drink on Long Island, although it might be chocolate syrup in a glass of milk.  Tavares is not the flashiest player around, but there he is, 14^th in goals scored, fifth in assists, tied for second in points behind Sidney Crosby (oh, and he’s a minus-4 for you hockey media who put stock in such numbers).  When he is on, the Islanders do well.  Tavares averages 1.7 points in Islander wins this season.  However, he hardly slacks off much when other things are not going well for the Isles; he still averages 0.83 points per game in losses.  He has been a remarkably consistent scorer this season.  Only twice over his first 53 games did he have consecutive games without a point.  However, he comes into this game without a point in his last three contests, all New York losses.

Washington: Martin Erat

Here are some numbers for you… 53, 64, 85.  Martin Erat has gone without a goal in 53 consecutive regular season games, has one in his last 64 games, and has two in his last 85 regular season games. That’s not a drought, that’s the Sahara Desert.  It is nice that Erat, given his playing time and linemates this season, has 21 assists (tied for fourth on the team), but at some point he is going to have to display some offense of his own, especially with Mikhail Grabovski, Mike Green, and Brooks Laich all injured to varying degrees. 

Keys:

1.  Pressure.  Caps fans saw up close what a hard forecheck could do when the Caps applied it to a decent skating and possession team like Detroit on Sunday.  The Islanders are not at that level in either attribute.  Keep them below their own faceoff dots and let the turnovers happen.

2.  120 seconds.  Uh, guys?  It really is something to address, this whole allowing goals within two minutes of scoring one.  24 times, and counting.  Stop it.

3.  PK, OK!  The Islanders’ power play has short circuited over their five-game losing streak.  The Caps’ penalty killing stumbled against Detroit (1-for-3) after going 16-for-17 over their previous four games.  Allowing the Isles to get up off the canvas on their power play is a recipe for despair in this game.

In the end…

The Caps looked good for stretches, particularly early, in their overtime win over Detroit on Sunday.  They also looked like crap over stretches.  That kind of uneven 60 minutes has been a consistent feature of the Caps this season.  Part of it is due to lack of depth on defense.  Part of it is inconsistent or unfocused goaltending at the wrong time.  Part of it is bad shooting luck (or bad shooting skill, depending on your tolerance for luck).  Part of it (recently) is injuries.  Whatever.  If the Caps are going to make a go of this post-Olympic playoff sprint, they had better bank points against teams like the one they face tonight.  There really is no excuse for losing.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 56: Capitals 6 - Red Wings 5 (OT)

It was a game that featured more fireworks than most Super Bowls and provided appropriate entertainment for a Super Sunday.  The Washington Capitals snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, not to mention embarrassment, when they took away two points in a 6-5 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings in the back half of their home-and-home weekend series.

The Caps avoided the sweep at the hands of the Red Wings when Alex Ovechkin pounded a one-timer past Jimmy Howard 2:37 into the extra session, the Caps’ third power play goal of the game.  The game-winner spared the embarrassment that might have been felt by a team that had three two-goal leads in the game.

The Caps established their first two goal lead in the first period with Jason Chimera and Joel Ward scoring just 2:37 apart.  For Chimera it was a case of finishing off some fine forward pressure deep in the Red Wing zone, pinning the Red Wings behind their own goal line before the puck squirted out to Chimera all alone on the dot in the right wing faceoff circle.  With goalie Jimmy Howard’s head on a swivel, he could not find the puck, and Chimera had an open net to shoot at before Howard could realize where the puck had gone. 

Ward finished the first Caps power play of the game when, while occupying the right wing half wall spot normally manned by Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson found Ward in the slot with shooting room.  Ward settled the puck and wristed it past Howard before the Red Wing defense could converge, and the Caps had their first two-goal lead.

After Gustav Nyquist halved the lead on a power play goal at the 11:20 mark, John Carlson restored the two-goal advantage when he took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom in the high slot and pounded a slap shot past Howard’s blocker to make it 3-1.

Detroit got back within a goal at 13:30 of the second period on a Tomas Tatar goal that seemed to fool goalie Michal Neuvirth from the left wing circle.  However, Joel Ward put the Caps up by two goals for a third time just 19 seconds later.  Ward started it, and he finished it.  From the left wing wall Ward dumped the puck into the far corner where defenseman Connor Carrick was headed.  Carrick threw the puck at the crease, but defenseman Jakub Kindl had Jason Chimera tied up.  No one bothered to track Ward coming from the far side, however, and he jumped into the slot and stuffed the puck past Howard for his second goal of the game.

Nyquist got the Red Wings within a goal for a third time with a power play goal – his second goal of the game – with just 1:11 left in the second period, something of a momentum changer as it turned out.  The Red Wings capitalized on the momentum change just 42 seconds into the third period when Nyquist completed the hat trick.  The Caps took it back, though, less than four minutes later. 

Although he would not get the goal, nor even an assist on the play, the tie-breaker was largely the product of hard work by Martin Erat.  Firt, Erat chased down Justin Abdelkader, who was himself in flight into the Detroit zone to try to gain control of a loose puck.  All Abdelkader was able to do as a result was poke the puck across to Jonathan Ericsson.  When the puck slid past Ericsson, it was Erat pouncing in the opposite corner to pressure the defenseman into a turnover.  The puck slid out to the left wing circle and past Nicklas Backstrom and Henrik Zetterberg, finding its way onto the stick of Troy Brouwer in all alone on Howard.  Brouwer made good on the chance, snapping the puck to the long side and inside the post to give the Caps a 5-4 lead.

That lead did not hold up, either.  Abdelkader got it back just 1:57 later – yet another goal allowed less than two minutes after scoring one – and the game was tied for the last time.  The Red Wings sealed their fate when Brendan Smith was sent off 1:26 into the extra session to give the Caps the advantage of numbers and open ice.  When John Carlson fed Alex Ovechkin barely a minute later, the Caps took one more, one last, one final lead, and sent fans home to their Super Bowl parties happy.

Other stuff…

-- Ovechkin had the game-winning goal, 11 shot attempts, two hits, and a takeaway in 24 minutes of ice time.  He was also a minus-1.  Wonder what will get the attention on Monday morning.

-- Speaking of Ovechkin, one wonders if he ever had as open a net as the one in front of him with two seconds left in the first period.  If the Caps make it 4-1 there, does Howard return for the second period?   Do the Red Wings come back?  Would Lassie get the sheriff to the well to save Timmy in time to watch the Super Bowl?

-- In the two-minute goal sweepstakes, the Joel Ward goal 19 seconds after Tomas Tatar scored in the second period was the ninth time this season that the Caps scored a goal less than two minutes after giving one up.  When Gustav Nyquist returned the favor 1:17 after Troy Brouwer scored in the third period, it was the 24^th time it happened to the Caps.

-- The three power plays on six chances made it 6-for-18 in the Caps’ last four games (33.3 percent).  It was the first time the Caps had three power play goals in a game since December 20^th in a 4-2 win over Carolina.

-- The Caps have not lacked for offense against Detroit recently.  Six goals made it 24 in their last five games against the Red Wings.  It was the most goals the Caps scored at home since beating the New York Islanders, 6-2, back on November 5^th.

-- For Nicklas Backstrom, his two assist day made it his first multi-point day since he was he had a goal and an assist in a 3-2 win over the New York Rangers on December 27^th.

-- The Caps abused the Red Wings in the circle.  They were 13-for-21 on faceoffs in the offensive end, 15-for-26 in the defensive end, and 18-for-29 in the neutral zone.  Eric Fehr (10-for-12), Nicklas Backstrom (12-for-21), and Jay Beagle (14-for-19) were beastly.

-- Speaking of Fehr, Backstrom, and Beagle, those three tied for the team lead in hits with five apiece.

-- For Joel Ward it was his second three-point game of the season, his other one coming when he recorded a hat trick against Philadelphia in a 7-0 win on November 1^st.

-- Connor Carrick had his first multi-point game in the NHL with a pair of assists.

-- Marcus Johansson had a shot on goal and a missed shot.  It broke a string of four games in which he did not have so much as a shot attempt.  He had an assist for good measure.

-- Martin Erat had 20:36 in ice time, a season high for him and only the second time this season he topped 20 minutes.  Erat has five assists in his last five games, including the helper he had this afternoon.

In the end…

At this point, you take the points where you can get them, however you can earn them.  The Caps had a chance to put this game away early with three goals (and what should have been four) in the first period.  But no lead is safe with this team, and it was simply a case of outracing the usual demons – losing focus after a goal, letting teams back into games, underwhelming goaltending.

However, the Caps did have balance – five skaters with goals, nine with points – and did not allow momentum changes to overwhelm them.  They had secondary scoring, they had stretches in which they exerted great pressure on Red Wing skaters in their own end.  Actually, what they had in the end was the puck on Alex Ovechkin’s stick, and that made all the difference.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 18

In Week 18 of the 2013-2014 season the Washington Capitals tread water.  Unfortunately, when a team starts the week in seventh place in an eight-team division, two points out of a playoff spot, and ends the week in seventh place in an eight-team division and three points out of a playoff spot, it just is not good enough, especially with a difficult schedule looming down the road in March.  Ground not gained now is ground lost.

Record: 1-1-1

The best thing that can be said about the Caps’ record for Week 18 is, “it could have been worse.”  They blew a two-goal lead among the three leads they held over the Buffalo Sabres before winning in overtime.  They were pasted, 5-2, by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the middle game of the week.  They scored with seven seconds left in regulation to salvage one point against the Detroit Red Wings to end the week.  They were an overtime goal and seven seconds away from a one-point week.

Through a certain lens (rose-colored, of course) one might rationalize the week away by saying, “but they split their points on the road…split on the road, win at home, voila!”  Yeah, well, hang on to that idea when you’re wondering what to do on a weekend night in April when the Caps’ season is over.

Offense:  3.33/game (season: 2.73 / rank: 15th)

It was not as if the Caps lacked for offense in Week 18.  Ten goals in three games is, if done on a regular and consistent basis, certainly good enough to succeed in this NHL.  They showed a remarkable consistency in one respect.  Their shot attempts in the three games for the week were: 55, 55, 54.

The Caps also extended a quiet streak in the first two games of the week.  They outshot Buffalo, 35-27, and Columbus, 32-29, to make it five straight games in which they outshot their opponents.  Only once before this season had the Caps outshot opponents in consecutive games, that being January 2-4 when they outshot Carolina, 41-33, and Minnesota, 30-11.  The Caps lost both games.  As it was, he Caps also went 2-3-0 in their five-game shooting streak.  It was a streak that ended in the last game of the week when they were outshot by Detroit, 45-29, in a 4-3 trick shot loss.

Eight players shared in the goal scoring for the week.  Alex Ovechkin recorded a pair, having one credited to him changed to Joel Ward’s ledger (the game-tying goal with seven seconds left against Detroit).  With the goal put into Ward’s column, he finished the week with a pair of goals as well.  There were 16 players sharing in the point-scoring for the week, including goalie Braden Holtby, who recorded an assist on Ward’s first goal of the week in the Caps, 5-2 loss to Columbus on Thursday. 

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 2.91 / rank: T-23rd)

Here is the odd thing about defense in Week 18.  The Caps held Buffalo to 27 shots and Columbus to 29 shots, extending their streak of games to three holding teams under 30 shots per game, their longest streak of the season and making it five times in six games they accomplished the feat.  It was part of a generally sparse output from both opponents regarding shot attempts overall.  Buffalo managed 53 attempts, Columbus 48.  In Detroit, however, the Caps had their highest shots-allowed total (45), since allowing 47 to St. Louis in a 4-1 Caps win on November 17^th (the second time the Caps allowed 47 shots this season, the first coming against Winnipeg in a 5-4 Gimmick win on October 22^nd).

The possession numbers were deceptive.  In 5-on-5 close score situations the Caps had a Corsi-for percentage for the week of 51.4, a Fenwick-for percentage of 52.7.  That is overall.  The week was skewed by the Caps’ dominance in those statistics in their 5-4 overtime win over Buffalo to start the week.  Their Corst-for and Fenwick-for percentages were 59.2 and 64.2, respectively.  Against Columbus (41.2/38.5) and Detroit (44.8/40.0), possession was something the Caps appeared to lack in those 5on-5 close score situations.  One more word about the Columbus game.  There were only 17 Corsi events and only 13 Fenwick events in those 5-on-5 close score situations.  It was not exactly a “close” game.

Goaltending: 3.90 GAA / .881 SV (season: 2.80 / .915 / 2 SO)

Those numbers up there are not good.  And what is more disturbing, it was Braden Holtby’s that were worse than the week.  Holtby had the first and second games of the week and stopped only 47 of 56 shots (.839 save percentage).  That only scratches the surface of his week.  Underneath those numbers is the fact that in the first and second periods he had a save percentage of .800 in the first, .810 in the second (.806 overall).  He was letting games get away from him, and the team, early.  Then there were the periods where lack of focus cannot be overlooked.  In the second period against Buffalo (two goals on four shots) and the first period against Columbus (two goals on five shots) he suffered from lack of consistent work.  It was not a good week for the number one netminder.

As for the backup, Michal Neuvirth, he did his level best to keep the Caps in it against the Detroit Red Wings in his only appearance of the week.  Neuvirth faced 45 shots, 22 of them in the first period alone (all of which he stopped).  He was 14-for-14 stopping the Red Wings on seven power plays.  It was his third game in four in which he finished with a save percentage over .930.

Power Play: 3-for-12 / 25.0 percent (season: 22.3 percent / 5th)

The three goals scored on the power play by the Caps in Week 18 matched their total for the previous three weeks combined, and it was the most they had since recording five power play goals in Week 12.

It was not an especially efficient week for the Caps, despite the high conversion rate.  Washington recorded their three power play goals on 26 shots in 18:04 of power play time.  They did not lack for shots, they lacked for finish.  They had an especially difficult time against Columbus, where they went 0-for-7, misfiring on all 16 shots they had in 10:44 of power play time.  That game suffered, from the Caps’ point of view, from scoring effects of a sort. Guys who don’t normally get a lot of power play time showed up on the shot meter.  Brooks Laich was 0-for-2, as was Connor Carrick.  Eric Fehr had three third period power play shots.  It was bombs away, just duds when they got to the goaltender.

What the Caps did get was some variety among the scorers.  Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, and Jason Chimera were the goal-scorers for the week on the power play.  What they also got was the puck shoved back in their face, or more precisely, their own net.  The Caps allowed their seventh shorthanded goal of the season in the 5-2 loss to Columbus.  Only three teams – Otrtawa, Philadelphia, and Edmonton – have allowed more.

Penalty Killing: 13-for-14 / 92.9 percent (season: 81.2 percent / 16th)

The penalty killers had their best week since going 16-for-17 in Week 5.  It was the second straight week that the season penalty killing rate was higher at the end of the week than at the beginning.  It would have been nicer without all the opportunities to show off their penalty killing chops, though.  The 14 shorthanded situations faced was the second-highest for the Caps in a three-game week this season (those 17 situations in Week 5).

Still, holding opponents to 1-for-25 shooting in 23:50 of shorthanded ice time has to qualify among the best weeks of the season for the Caps on the penalty kill.  When the Caps shutout Columbus on seven opportunities on Thursday, then blanked Detroit on five opportunities on Friday, it marked the first time the Caps shut out opponents in consecutive games in which they allowed five or more power plays since they stopped Vancouver on six chances and Philadelphia on five on October 28^th and November 1^st.

On top of that, the Caps scored a shorthanded goal of their own in the loss to Columbus on Thursday.  Joel Ward’s shorthanded goal was his second of the season and the team’s fourth.  The Caps had only three shorthanded goals in the 2012-2013 season.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 6-10 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.90 / rank: T-21st)

If special teams were fairly good to the Caps in Week 18, their performance at even strength left much to be desired.  This is a team than has spent most of the season below the 1.00 threshold in goals scored for and against at 5-on-5, but this week was especially grim.

The Caps scored half of their total for the week against a backup goalie, netting three on 31 even strength shots against Buffalo’s Jhonas Enroth.  They did not score an even strength goal in either of the first two periods of the other two games of the week.  It seems not to be a coincidence that it was the first game that they won, the other two that they lost.

At the other end, Columbus was 3-for-14 shooting at even strength in the first and second periods of their 5-2 win, while Detroit was 2-for-19.  It put the Caps in a hole out of which they could not climb against Columbus, and out of which they managed to climb to the top before losing in the Gimmick.

Faceoffs: 93-191 / 48.7 percent (season: 49.3 percent / rank: 18th)

It was a tale of two different ends for the Caps in the circles this week.  A poor outcome in the offensive end against Buffalo (8-for-22) led to a sub-50 percent week in the offensive zone (47.8 percent).  Meanwhile, the Caps were above 50 percent in the defensive end in all three games to finish the week at 58.5 percent.  It might have been enough to push them over 50 percent overall, but 38.5 percent in neutral zone draws put an end to that thinking.

The offensive end draws finishing under 50 percent was more a product of players who do not get many opportunities doing poorly.  Looking at the three top players in terms of frequency, Nicklas Backstrom (52.2), and Troy Brouwer (70.0) were over 50 percent, while Jay Beagle was 5-for-11.  In the defensive end, Backstrom and Brooks Laich took the most draws, and they made them count.  Backstrom was at 70.6 percent for the week, while Laich was at 52.2 percent. 

Goals For/Against by Period:

The second period, so good to the Caps this season, killed them in Week 18.  Washington allowed two second period goals in each of the three games this week.  They returned the favor against Buffalo in a game they won, but they managed only one in the middle frame against Columbus and none against Detroit in games they lost.  It hardly seems surprising, given that the Caps outshot the Sabres by a 16-4 margin in their game, while they were outshot in the second period against Columbus (17-5) and against Detroit (9-8).

In the end…

The Caps beat a bad team starting their backup goalie, lost to a team that is starting to look hungry to make it to a rare playoff appearance, and lost to a team that had a number of players injured or just coming off injuries.  Road games or not, all of them were games the Caps could have won, yet they were close to making it a winless week.  And again, there might be too much Alex Ovechkin reflected in the scoring.  He had a hand in six of the Caps’ ten goals for the week.  That is not an argument for Ovechkin to score less, but for others to step up.  Like Marcus Johansson, who finished the week, not only with no shots on goal, but no shot attempts in the three games.  Not a blocked shot, not a missed shot. 

Not that all this is on Johansson; he is a symptom of a broader malaise.  The Caps need to get more push from others, like Eric Fehr (one goal in his last 12 games), Troy Brouwer (one goal in his last 14 games), and Nicklas Backstrom (one goal in his last 17 games, only seven points over that span).

Even the increase in scoring, though, won’t fill in all the blanks.  Week 15 saw a return of the inconsistent goaltending, specifically the performance of Braden Holtby.  If the Caps are going to make a push for a playoff spot, Holtby is going to have to show more consistency than he has displayed so far this season, a trait that was on display this week.

All them are.

Washington Capitals: A ONE point night -- Game 55: Red Wings 4 - Capitals 3 (OT/SO)

Well, they did get the point.

Standings point, that is. 

The Washington Capitals scored late to force extra time but lost in the freestyle competition to the Detroit Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena last night, 4-3, in the front end of a home and home set with the Wings that wraps up on Sunday in Washington.

The Caps were down to their last seconds before what would have been their seventh regulation loss in nine games.  But in those last seconds the Caps won a battle for the puck behind the Red Wings net, Joel Ward getting the better of Danny DeKeyser to push the puck to Jason Chimera.  From below the goal line Chimera sent the puck around to John Carlson at the right wing wall.  Carlson continued moving the puck clockwise around the zone, finding Alex Ovechkin at the top of the offensive zone near the Detroit blue line.  Ovechkin one-timed the puck through a screen, Joel Ward having come from behind the net to set up in front of goalie Jimmy Howard.  It was enough of a distraction to allow the puck to sail past Howard to tie the game at 3-3 and clinch at least a s standings point for Washington.

The Caps were unable to manage the second point, however.  After failing to settle things in the five-minute overtime, the Caps fell in the trick shot phase when Patrick Eaves solved goalie Michal Neuvirth in the seventh round of the shootout, and Jay Beagle missed the net on his attempt in the bottom half of the round.

Other stuff…

-- It was not in less than two minutes, but it was close.  The Caps almost allowed their 24^th goal this season within two minutes of scoring one themselves.  As it was, they scored at 8:09 of the second period when Casey Wellman tied the game, 2-2, by following up his own rebound.  Just 2:16 later, though, the Red Wings regained the lead when Gustav Nyquist curled behind Justin Abdelkader on a 2-on-2 rush and wristed the puck through Abdelkader’s legs and under goalie Michal Neuvirth’s left arm.

-- The Nyquist goal was typical of the sort of thing that has happened to the Caps in this six-week slide.  The play started when Nicklas Backstrom spun away from an attempted hit by Abdelkader at the right wing wall.  Backstrom sent the puck across to John Erskine at the left point, but the pass was in Erskine’s skates, and the defenseman could not kick it cleanly to his stick.  All he managed to do was leave the puck lying still for Nyquist to steal it and head the other way.  Backstrom got back with defenseman Connor Carrick, but Abdelkader’s charge down the middle to the net occupied both defenders, giving Nyquist the space to curl behind and shoot.

-- Backstrom had a much prettier pass in the first period.  On a power play late in the period he held the puck on the right-wing half wall looking over his options.  Backstrom looked across at Ovechkin in the left wing circle, but Luke Glendenning was cheating toward Ovechkin, keeping within a stick-length of him to defend a cross-ice pass.  That left open ice below Glendenning that Jason Chimera took advantage of by circling from behind the net to the far side of Howard.  As Chimera was circling out, Backstrom found him with a pass right on his tape that Chimera only had to redirect into the net past Howard to give the Caps the game’s first goal.

-- No lead is safe for this team.  After that taking that first goal, 1-0 lead into the first intermission, the Caps allowed two goals to the Wings in the second, one scored barely two minutes in, the other scored with about two minutes left in the period.  It was the tenth time in 26 games that the Caps scored first and lost (16-8-2).  It was the sixth time in 14 games that the Caps led at the first intermission and lost (8-5-1).

-- Ovechkin finished the game with 15 of the Caps’ 54 shot attempts.  John Carlson was next with seven.  Carlson did not score, but he did have two assists.  It was Carlson’s first two-point game since November 22^nd, in a 3-2 loss to Montreal.

-- Another game, another no-shot/no-attempts game for Marcus Johansson.  This makes four straight games in which Johansson has failed to record a shot on goal.

-- How thin is the Caps skill pool at the moment?  Jay Beagle got a turn in the Gimmick.  Yes, it was round 7, but still.  For Beagle it was his first NHL shootout attempt and his first since an unsuccessful attempt in a 5-4 Hershey Bears loss to the Lake Erie Monsters in the AHL on Valentine’s Day, 2008.  His only successful attempt (of three total) as a pro came in a 4-3 Bears loss to the Albany River Rats on December 9, 2007.  Give him credit, he was out there trying to pick a corner.

-- Ovechkin…goal.  Wellman…goal.  Chimera…goal.  OK, that’s three lines heard from (yes, Chimera’s was a power play goal).  About that second line.  It seemed like scrambled eggs.  The third line started the game, followed by the first line, then it was Beagle, Martin Erat and Troy Brouwer.  Later, it would be Beagle, Brouwer, and Chimera.  Later still, Brooks Laich, Erat, and Brouwer.  Get the point?

-- Give the penalty killers credit, but not too much.  The Red Wings came up empty on five power play opportunities (that makes 12-for-12 for the Caps PK'ers over two games), but with 14 power play shots on goal in ten minutes of power play time, Michal Neuvirth was the best penalty killer of all.

-- Of the three Detroit goals, the Erskine-Carrick pair was on ice for the last two.  On one, Erskine was caught trying to make a play he is not as equipped to do, perhaps, as much as other defensemen on this club (kicking a pass into his skates to his stick, the unfortunate result being a rush the other way resulting in a goal).  On the other, neither defenseman figured in the play, Danny DeKeyser blasting a shot off a faceoff that might (or might not) have hit Jason Chimera on its way to the goal.  Still, that one was more on Neuvirth, certainly, than either of the defensemen.  They were more victims of scorekeeping than any particularly egregious errors.

-- Here is where the defense – all of it – is culpable.  Detroit outshot the Caps, 45-29.  They out-attempted Washington, 81-54.  Detroit had 11 skaters with at least three shots on goal, nine with at least five shot attempts.

-- Which brings us to the Red Wings’ first goal.  The end of the play looked like an old Benny Hill Show skit, but lost was the start of it.  There was Dmitry Orlov going all Mike Green and skating the puck out of his own end, through the neutral zone, and across the Red Wings’ blue line.  But instead of chipping it deep when he crossed the line, he tried to deke past a defender, had the puck poked off his stick, and the Wings were off and running on a breakaway the other way.  Moral: Orlov is not Green, who was out of the lineup, courtesy of that Boone Jenner hit in Columbus on Friday night.

In the end, it’s another loss (the Caps' fourth straight in the skills competition, by the way).  There were bright spots – Neuvirth’s play, the slick power play in the first period, the persistence that led to the Ovechkin goal late.  But this is a thin team.  They miss Mikhail Grabovski (with whom the game might not have gone to a shootout, and even if it did might not have reached Jay Beagle’s spot on the bench).  They miss Mike Green, a more adept puck carrier at this stage of his career than Dmitry Orlov is at his.  They miss a well-functioning third defensive pair.  They miss a well-functioning, not to mention consistently assembled, second forward line.

It just isn’t a complete team, which is why despite the bright moments, the Caps can still manage to come up just short.  Remember the “just short” part come April, as it starts to look more and more as it that will be the takeaway from this season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 54 (Blue Jackets 5 - Capitals 2) and Game 55 (Capitals at Red Wings)

We have a suspicion that this morning there are hazmat crews hard at work at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, desperately trying to remove the stench hanging in the arena after the Washington Capitals turned in what might have been their worst performance of the season, a 5-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets.

It was bad. Bad, bad, bad, bad.

If you saw the Caps’ 5-4 overtime win over Buffalo on Tuesday night, last night was that game without the four-point night from Alex Ovechkin and late heroics from Mike Green.  As to the latter, Green left the game in the first period after having his head driven into the glass by the Blue Jacket’s Boone Jenner.  Green was face down on the ice for several moments before skating off on his own.  He did not return to the contest and will be reevaluated in Detroit, where the club will play this evening.  

As for those who remained, they were awful.  No one gets a pass on this one.  Not the power play, that went 0-for-7 and allowed a shorthanded goal.  Not the top line, which managed three shots on goal for the night.  Not the second line, which had eight shots on goal, but no points.  Not the defense, which once more decided to play the “hunt and peck” method of standing still and poking at pucks with their sticks as opponents skated freely around them.  Not Braden Holtby, who seemed to have the attention span of a three-month old golden retriever in goal.

No, this was a 20-man effort.  OK…19 (backup goalie Michal Neuvirth gets a pass).

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin had his first four-point game of the season on Tuesday.  From the “take the good with the bad” file, he had his first minus-5 game of his career on Thursday, getting up close and personal looks at all five Columbus goals.  Ovechkin (minus-17) is tied for 802^nd of 817 skaters in plus-minus.  Geez, folks…sure, the plus-minus is a stat that has fallen out of favor, but c’mon.  He was plus-2 for a ghastly team that finished 27^th in the league in standings points his rookie season.  Oops…they’re tied for 23^rd right now.

-- Ovechkin’s night was odd in another respect.  He skated only 18 shifts.  Still, he logged more than 21 minutes of ice time.  Why?...

-- The Caps were 0-for-7 on the power play (for Ovechkin, that meant 1:25 of ice time per power play).  That makes it 0-for-8 and 0-for-7 wrapped around a 2-for-3 against the worst team in the league starting their backup goaltender.  Everything is broken on this team right now.

-- Well, maybe not the penalty kill (whodathunkit?!). The Caps were 7-for-7, making it 13 for their last 14 dating back to the second period of their 2-1 loss to New Jersey last Friday.

-- Mike Green was the only Caps defenseman not to be on ice for a goal.  But you probably figured that out, seeing how he had only 5:48 of ice time before he left the game. 

-- Eric Fehr led the team in shots?  Am I reading that right?  Hey, at least he scored.

-- Possession Bizarro World… Caps had Corsi-for percentage at even strength overall of 50.9.  Their Fenwick-for was 41.0. 

-- This game got away from the Caps early.  How do we know this?  There were only 13 Fenwick events in 5-on-5 close score situations (and Columbus had eight of them).  Not much “close score” action there.

-- If Ovechkin had a bad game, what adjective can one conjure up for Marcus Johansson’s?  He was on ice for the last four Blue Jacket goals (he missed out on the shortie that started the evening).  No shots, no shot attempts, no hits, no takeaways, and he lost two of three draws.  If the meek shall inherit the earth, Johansson is emperor of the planet on that performance.

-- Which loops us back to the first line overall.  For the night, 11 shot attempts.  Ovechkin had ten of them.  Think too much offense is being stuffed into Ovechkin’s side of the ice?

-- Tom Wilson…7:14 of ice time, four hits, one fight, no points, no shots, one shot attempt.  Tell me, how has this young man grown as a hockey player this season?  Is he a more rounded player than he was on Opening Night?  Has he expressed parts of his game that we didn’t see in early October?  Or is it, hit, fight, get off the ice, repeat?

-- At least Joel Ward pulled into a tie for sixth in shorthanded goals this season (2).

But for the sheer mediocrity of the Metropolitan Division, you could start working on those pithy phrases to describe a season wasted.  But the Caps are still – improbably, amazingly, criminally – only two points out of a playoff spot.  But they have lost consecutive games to Columbus by a combined 10-3 margin.  They allowed a pair of goals in the first period of both games and were outscored by a 7-2 margin in the first two periods of the two games.  They haven’t been nail-biters.

And now it’s on to Detroit, a team having troubles of its own.  The Red Wings are 3-4-1 in their last eight games and, if the playoffs started today, would be sitting at home.  What is their problem?...

-- They can’t score (21^st in scoring offense)

-- They don’t defend all that well (tied for 14^th in scoring defense)

-- Their 5-on-5 play is mediocre (16^th in the league with a 0.99 goals for/goals against ratio)

-- The power play isn’t powerful (22^nd in the league)

-- They don’t play from ahead enough (only 20 times in 53 games have they led at the first intermission, only 19 times have they led after the second)

-- They finish poorly (54 third period goals, eighth most in the league)

-- They’re hurt (Stephen Weiss, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Jimmy Howard, and Henrik Zetterberg are injured in varying states).

If the Caps win both games against the Red Wings in this weekend's home-and-home, they can pass the Red Wings and put as many as three points between the teams.  If they lose them both, they could find themselves right at .500 in standings points and might feel the hot breath of the New York Islanders right behind them in the race for seventh…yes, seventh place in the division. 

Time to put on your big boy pants, guys.

Capitals 3 – Red Wings 2

Capitals 4 – Red Wings 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 54: Capitals at Blue Jackets, January 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Thirteen days ago the Washington Capitals ventured to Columbus, Ohio, to take on the Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. The Capitals were scored upon early, late, and often in a 5-1 loss to the Blue Jackets, the first time the Capitals lost to Columbus since November 1, 2009 (a 5-4 overtime loss), the first time they lost to the Blue Jackets in regulation time since January 9, 2009, and the first time they lost to Columbus in Ohio since November 29, 2008.

It had been a while.

Columbus laid that whuppin’ on the Caps in the midst of a winning streak that they would extend three more times to reach eight games in all, a franchise record. That streak ended on January 25th against, of all teams, the Buffalo Sabres. That loss started the Blue Jackets in a different direction. They are on a three-game losing streak coming into Thursday night’s game.

In their 3-3-0 run since beating the Caps on January 17th, Columbus has split 38 goals right down the middle with their opponents, 19 goals apiece (not including a shootout goal in a 4-3 win over Buffalo on January 18th).

It really is a split-personality run that the Blue Jackets have been on since that win over the Caps:

• First three games: 13 goals scored
• Last three games: 6 goals scored

• First three games: 8 goals allowed
• Last three games: 11 goals allowed

• First three games: 3-for-12 power play (25.0 percent)
• Last three games: 2-for-9 power play (22.2 percent, both goals scored in loss to Ottawa in last game)

• First three games: 11-for-13 penalty kill (84.6 percent)
• Last three games: 5-for-6 penalty kill (83.3 percent)

• First three games: nine players shared goals, 18 shared points
• Last three games: five players shared goals, 12 shared points

Overall, it is James Wisniewski who leads the Blue Jackets in points over the six games since last facing the Caps (1-5-6). Wisniewski is on quite an extended run of good performance, scoring-wise. He has points in eight of his last 11 games (3-9-12) and has climbed into the top ten among NHL defensemen in points (5-28-33, tied for ninth). In eight career games against Washington he is 1-3-4, even.

Derek MacKenzie leads the Blue Jackets in goal scoring since Columbus last faced the Caps (three). He has a third (two) of the six goals scored by Columbus in their last three games, although he had a three-game goal-scoring streak stopped in Columbus’ 3-2 loss to Ottawa on Tuesday. He is 0-1-1, minus-3, in six career games against Washington.

One has to think that it will Sergei Bobrovsky getting the call for the Blue Jackets in this contest. When he was given the night off in Columbus’ 3-2 loss to Ottawa on Tuesday, it broke a string of seven straight starts over which he was, quite frankly, skating in pretty good luck. His record was 5-2-0 over those starts, but his goals against average of 2.63 and save percentage of .909 suggested he was not playing as well as his win-loss numbers would indicate. He had a particularly tough time in the game against Buffalo that ended Columbus’ eight-game winning streak. In 23 minutes he allowed three goals on ten shots, two of them shorthanded, both of them eluding his glove. He did bounce back with a 32 save effort in a 3-2 loss to Carolina, but he seems to have settled into a pattern of allowing three goals or so per game over the past two weeks.

Here is how the teams compare in their overall numbers:

1. That eight-game winning streak certainly stands out in Columbus’ season to date. It stands in stark contrast to a more bleak character to the rest of their season:

• Goals for/against/game during streak: 4.13/2.13
• Goals for/against/game outside of streak: 2.60/2.96

• Power play during streak: 8-31 (25.8 percent)
• Power play outside of streak: 26-146 (17.8 percent)

• Penalty kill during streak: 28-34 (82.4 percent)
• Penalty kill outside of streak: 120-151 (79.5 percent)

2.  Only Edmonton has fewer one-goal wins (6) that does Columbus (9).

3.  The Blue Jackets have trouble holding back teams over 60 minutes.  Only Toronto (62) and Calgary (61) have allowed more third period goals than the Blue Jackets (60).

4.  Columbus can calim to have a certain balance in scoring.  Eighteen players have at least ten points through 53 games.  By way of comparison, the Caps have 13 such players.

5.  Despite having lost three straight the Blue Jackets’ possession numbers have been generally solid overall.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 close score situations is 62.8 percent over their past three games, as is their Fenwick-for percentage (numbers from extraskater.com).

1.  The Caps have not had an extended winning streak so far this season, but a win tonight will make it five streaks of three or more wins this season.

2.  The second period continues to be good to the Caps.  Washington ranks fifth in second period goals (66).  The third period, on the other hand… the Caps are 28th in third period goals scored (40).

3.  If the Caps win, bet on it not being by two goals.  The Caps have only two two-goal wins this season.  Only Dallas, Calgary, and New Jersey have fewer.

4.  Only the Islanders, Calgary, and Buffalo have fewer wins this season when leading after the first period than Washington.  Then again, the Caps have taken a lead into the first intermission only 13 times in 53 games.

5.  Since December 27th, when the Caps held just a cumulative 45.4 percent Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 close score situations, they have dragged that number up to 48.8 percent (numbers from extraskater.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Brandon Dubinsky

In the three games Columbus won immediately after beating the Caps on January 17th, Brandon Dubinsky had a pair of goals and a pair of assists, along with ten shots on goal.  In the three losses that followed, Dubinsky was held off the score sheet and managed only four shots.  It goes with his season-long trend.  Largely absent when the Blue Jackets lose (2-8-10, minus 10, in 24 losses), he is better than a point a game player in wins (9-15-24, plus 17, in 23 wins).  It might be fair to say that as Dubinsky goes, so go the Jackets.  He has a goal and two assists in three games against the Caps this season.

Washington: Mike Green

When Mike Green posted two goals and an assist against Buffalo on Tuesday, it made for 11 points in his last 12 games and lifted him into the top-15 in scoring among NHL defensemen.  The big night in Buffalo was not a one-time reminiscence of the days in which he was the league’s top offensive defenseman, but the latest in a sustained stretch of offensive production.  What is more, he is doing it with a lighter on-ice burden.  His 23:12 average ice time per game sounds like a lot, but it would be his lowest over a full season (more than 50 games) since he logged 15:29 per game in 70 games of the 2006-2007 season.

Keys:

1.  “Everything Should Be Made as Simple as Possible, But Not Simpler.”  This quote is attributed to Albert Einstein, and what it boils down to is, “keep it simple, stupid…but not too simple.”  Tend to fundamentals, but avoid drifting into the lazy, reaching sort of defense that led to more than one Buffalo goal on Tuesday.

2.  “Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."  Another Einstein quote…hey guys, don’t get it in your heads after Tuesday that you’re back to being the 2010 Caps and can just outscore teams.  Fall into that trap, and another 5-1 pasting at the hands of the Blue Jackets awaits.

3.  "I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."  Ol’ Albert, again.  The Caps will head to Detroit right after this game for the first of a home-and-home against the Red Wings.  Don’t get ahead of yourselves and start thinking about The Joe…

In the end…

Six points separate second and seventh place in the Metropolitan Division, and the Blue Jackets and Caps are right in the thick of it.  Unfortunately for both teams, they happen to be on the wrong side of playoff eligibility, should the season end today.  Even though it is the end of January, not the end of March, this is an important “four-point” game for the Caps.  It is likely to be this way for any Metro Division game for the foreseeable future.  And that means it’s time to focus and get down to work, or as Albert said… “weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character.”

Capitals 3 – Blue Jackets 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 53: Capitals 5 - Sabres 4 (OT)

Two points is two points, but the Washington Capitals sure showed just how ugly a fashion that two points might be earned last night in their 5-4 overtime win over the Buffalo Sabres.

First, the Sabres entered the contest as the 30^th place team in a 30-team league.  Second, the Sabres entered the game losers in six of their previous seven games.  Third, they were giving their Olympian goaltender, Ryan Miller, the night off after he played 60 minutes in a 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh the night before. 

Then there was the opening.  The Caps struck early in bang-bang fashion.  First, Alex Ovechkin scored off a faceoff on a power play just 3:49 into the game.  Just 53 seconds later he scored again, deflecting a Mike Green drive past backup goalie Jhonas Enroth and off the post.

It looked like it was going to be a laugher.  It wasn’t.  The Caps coughed up that 2-0 lead in less than 20 minutes, the Sabres scoring on goals by Christian Ehrhoff and Cody Hodgson (on a power play) in the next 16:59 of game time. 

The Caps took another lead, courtesy of Mike Green finishing a nice wrap-around made possible by some iffy Buffalo defense and the fact that the nets are shallower this year, giving players more opportunities for such plays.  Just 62 seconds later, though, the Caps gagged on that lead (a recurring theme this season), Buffalo tying the game once more on Phillip Varone’s first NHL goal.

The Caps took their third lead late in the second period when Troy Brouwer scored on a power play, firing a one-timer off a pass from Martin Erat past Enroth.

That lead didn’t last, either.  Buffalo tied the game for the third time when Hodgson scored his second of the game 6:48 into the third period.

But the Caps had one trick left, tearing the page from the 2010 songbook.  With the teams at 4-on-4 and more open ice, Alex Ovechkin lured the Buffalo defense to him after he took a drop pass from Erat.  With the Sabres cheating in defense of a shot everyone knew was coming in an attempt to complete the hat trick, Ovechkin faked, then threw the puck into open space on the off-wing where Green was filling in.  Green snapped a shot past a diving Enroth, and it was once more, “Game Over Green.”

Other stuff…

-- For Alex Ovechkin it was his second four-point game this season (his first two-assist game), the other four-point game coming in a four-goal performance against Tampa Bay on December 10^th in a 6-5 win.  The four points lifted him into a tie for seventh in points, and the two goals opened up a 10-goal lead on second place Corey Perry and Joe Pavelski in the race for the Richard Trophy.

-- The Caps were 2-for-3 on the power play, the first time they recorded two power play goals in a 4-3 win over Tampa Bay on January 9^th.  The Caps are 6-1-1 when scoring two power play goals in a game this season.

-- For Troy Brouwer, his second period power play goal was his first goal since January 2^nd in a 4-3 overtime loss to Carolina and his first power play goal since December 20^th in a 4-2 win over those same Hurricanes.

-- Green’s overtime winner was his first game-winning goal this season and his first overtime winner since he sealed a 6-5 overtime win over Tampa Bay last April 13^th.  His three-point night (2-1-3) was his first such night this season and his first since April 27^th of last season in a 3-2 overtime win over Boston.

-- It was a rough night for the top defensive pair.  Karl Alzner and John Carlson were on ice for three of the Sabres’ four goals, and neither could say they didn’t deserve that fate.  On Varone’s goal, Alzner was muscled off the puck by Brian Flynn, who fed Marcus Foligno.  Carlson tried a weak poke check as Foligno was heading to the net before Foligno slid the puck across to Varone for the goal.  On Hodgson’s second goal, coming on a delayed penalty to Jason Chimera, Hodgson stepped around an equally weak poke check attempt by Alzner, then stepped up on Carlson, who offered little resistance as Hodgson slid the puck past Holtby to tie the game at 4-4.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a point.  That should not be noteworthy, but it is since his assist on Ovechkin’s first goal was just his second point in his last nine games.

-- Brooks Laich, who was questionable for this game, gutted out almost 18 minutes of ice time.  Nevertheless, he had a tough night in one respect.  He was just 5-for-18 in faceoffs.  He was 3-for-5 against Tyler Ennis, which makes us think young Mr. Ennis has something on his to-work-on list for practice.

-- Martin Erat had two assists, getting him to 20.  He still does not have a goal.

-- No, we don’t know who Chad Ruhwedel is, either.  But we are somewhat surprised he did not record his first NHL goal last night along with Phillip Varone.  The Caps have a knack for having that happen to them.

In the end…

Yeah, it was two points, but really, don’t you feel just a little bit dirty about it?  That game should have been over at the first intermission, but the Caps stopped pushing on the gas pedal.  On a couple of goals they quite literally stopped playing (Karl, John, Jason… we’re looking at you on a couple of Sabres goals).  They dominated possession in 5-on-5 close score situations, but much of that was a product of late second period activity.  It was not a constant theme throughout. 

Fortunately, this is a three-point game that hardly matters since it is only in the wildest dreams of Sabres fans that Buffalo could contend for a playoff spot this season.  That makes the two points welcome in spite of the lack of aesthetics in the manner they were earned.

Hey, in a couple of months it will look like a dominating performance (as long as no one looks at the film).