The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 14: Penguins at Capitals, November 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Wednesday night used to be “Rivalry Night” in the NHL, at least in the world of NBC Sports, but is now just “Wednesday Night Hockey.” For this Wednesday, though, don’t believe it.  It’s Rivalry Night, alright.  The Washington Capitals host the Pittsburgh Penguins in a contest pitting teams with identical records against one another in what will be the 54^th regular season meeting in the Alex Ovechkin/Sidney Crosby era.

The Caps will be looking to win consecutive games for the first time this season and boost their regular season record against the Pens in the Ovechkin/Crosby era to 24-21-9.  It has been a bit of a struggle on home ice for the Caps who, after defeating the Edmonton Oilers by a 4-2 margin on Monday night, are 4-1-2 at Capital One Arena.  They face a bold challenge from the Penguins, who are one of only three teams remaining that have not lost a game in regulation time on the road (4-0-2, trailing Nashville and Toronto, both at 6-0-0 after Monday’s games).

For more than a decade, the Penguins have been a forward-dominated, center-centric team featuring the offensive contributions of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and those two have been the top goal scorers and point producers over the last three-plus seasons.  But over that same time, Phil Kessel has held his own as a primary contributor on the offensive side of the ledger.  In his three-plus seasons as a Penguin, Kessel is third in goals (90), trailing only Crosby (115) and Malkin (109), and third in points (237), trailing Crosby (277) and Malkin (248).  Over that period, no other Penguin is within 50 goals or 70 points of Kessel.  Pittsburgh’s “Big Two” is as much a “Top Three.”   Kessel has not let up this season, getting off to a hot start.  His 7-9-16, plus-2 start through 13 games, a shade ahead of last year’s start (4-9-13, minus-1).  Kessel is also among the most durable players in the league.  Coming into this season he appeared in every scheduled regular season game for eight straight seasons and has not missed a regular season game since October 31, 2009, when he was skating in his second season with the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Kessel is 11-21-32, minus-7, in 44 career games against the Capitals.

No one should be surprised that Kris Letang leads the defensemen in scoring for the Pens (4-8-12, plus-6, in 12 games).  Since his 2007-2008 rookie season he is tied for seventh place in points per game by defensemen (0.65).  The surprise so far is that Jamie Oleksiak is tied with Letang for the team lead in goals by defensemen (four) and is second in points (eight).  Part of the surprise is that he is more reminiscent of those massive defensemen who thrived in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, at 255 pounds being heavier than every defenseman in the league except Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien.  The other is that he has not been a regular fixture in any lineup since he made his debut with the Dallas Stars in 2012-2013.  Last season, one he split between Dallas and Pittsburgh (the Stars traded him in December 2017 for a fourth-round draft pick), was the first in which he dressed for more than half a season’s worth of regular season games (68).  In doing so he set a tied a career high in goals (five) and set a personal best in points (17), both numbers he is within range of surpassing.  Oleksiak is 1-0-1, plus-1, in six career games against Washington.

When Marc-Andre Fleury took his leave of Pittsburgh before last season to tend goal for the Vegas Golden Knights, the plan was a seamless transition to Matt Murray, who in his first two seasons was 41-12-5, 2.32, .925, with five shutouts in the regular season and two Stanley Cups on his resume.  Well, you know what the poet Robert Burns said about plans.  Having been given the top goaltending responsibilities, Murray has been an injury-plagued (lower body, concussion), disappointing performer in a season and change (31-20-4, 3.07, .903, with two shutouts).  He also had to deal with the passing of his father, no doubt an influence on his performance.  It has not been an easy time for Murray, who is only in his fourth NHL season and is not yet 25 years old.  He started this season giving mixed signals that his troubles were behind him.  He opened the season with a 4-1-0 record in his first five appearances, but his goals against average (3.37) and save percentage (.910) were not as impressive.  It has only gotten worse.  Murray is 0-3-1 in his last four decisions, while his goals against average ballooned to 4.65, and his save percentage dropped to .839 in those games.  His 3.87 goals against average overall ranks 38^th of 42 goalies with at least 250 minutes of ice time, while his save percentage of .886 ranks 35^th in that group.  Murray is 5-4-0, 3.93, .875 in nine career appearances against the Caps.

1.  Letang and Oleksiak have those four goals apiece.  The other six defensemen for the Pens have one goal among them (Jack Johnson).

2.  Despite the Penguins’ success on the road (4-0-2), they have struggled with possession numbers.  Only once in six games was their shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 over 50 percent (50.96 percent, a 53-51 edge, in a 6-5 overtime win over the Edmonton Oilers on October 23^rd).

3.  Pittsburgh allows more shots on goal than one would expect a successful team to allow.  Their 34.1 shots allowed per game is fifth-most in the league, an average topped only by Detroit (34.6), the New York Rangers (34.9), Anaheim Ducks (37.0), and Ottawa Senators (39.1).  Early in the season as it is, none of those teams are among the current playoff eligibles.

4.  Only one team in the league plays within the rules more effectively than the Penguins.  Their 6:50 in penalty minutes per game is lower than every team in the league except the Toronto Maple Leafs (6:30).  The Pens are tied with the Leafs for the fewest penalties taken (43) and fewest minor penalties taken (39).

5.  Scoring first matters to this team, at least so far.  Pittsburgh is 5-0-3 when scoring first, 1-4-0 when they do not.

1.  How close have the Caps played the Penguins in the Ovechkin/Crosby era?  There is the 23-21-9 record.  There is also the 166-164 margin in goals scored and goals allowed, the 1624-1636 difference in shots on goal, the 742-737 difference in penalty minutes, the 1390-1372 margin in credited hits, the 445-443 difference in charged giveaways, the 318-308 margin in credited takeaways, the 10.2 to 10.0 shooting percentage, the 115-110 difference in even strength goals scored.  Yeah, these teams are closely matched.

2.  Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, and John Carlson have 36 assists among them.  Of that total, 19 have come on power plays.

3.  The Caps have had pretty good starts this season.  The good news is that they have only trailed four times in 13 games at the first intermission.  The bad news… they are 0-2-2 in those games.

4.  Ditto on the whole scoring first thing.  The Caps have one loss when scoring first (5-1-0), one win when allowing the first goal (1-3-3).

5.  Evgeny Kuznetsov has six power play goals.  His next one ties a career high, set last season in 79 games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Dominik Simon

For more than three decades, the Penguins have been a team defined by its stars – Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin.  Their success, however, has been more the product of the down-roster players making contributions, players like Bob Errey, Troy Loney, and Phil Bourque in the Lemieux Stanley Cup years, and players like Chris Kunitz, Matt Cullen, and Nick Bonino in the Crosby Cup-winning years.  Which brings us to Dominik Simon.  The 2015 fifth round draft pick from the Czech Republic has had perhaps a more rapid rise to the parent club than most fifth-round picks.  Simon spent two years with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in the AHL (and five games with the big club) before he got a longer look last year in Pittsburgh (33 games).  This year, he has been an important contributor in the early going, a scoring line of 3-5-8 (fifth among Penguin forwards in points), plus-5, in 13 games.  He had a five-game points streak stopped in a 5-0 shutout at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday and comes into this game without a point in two straight contests.  He has not gone three straight games without a point so far this season.  Simon has one assist and is minus-2 in two career games against the Caps.

Washington: Brett Connolly

If Nicklas Backstrom is the Washington Capital who has flown under the NHL radar for most of his career, Brett Connolly might be the Cap skater who does so among his own fan base.  Since arriving in Washington in the 2016-2017 season, his 32 goals are sixth-highest on the team, as are his 27 even strength goals.  His 0.21 goals per game is fifth-highest among current Capitals over that two-plus season span.  If he records a point against the Pens, he will become the sixth Capital to reach double digits (unless Lars Eller has two before Connolly gets that point).  He started this season without a goal in his first six games, but he has two in his last seven.  That he has two goals in 13 games is not necessarily cause for alarm.  Connolly had two goals through the Caps’ first 13 games last season (actually, two through his first 17 contests) and two through his first 13 games the previous season (a streak that became two in 15).  He had 15 goals in each of his two seasons with the Caps coming into this year, so he would seem a decent bet to approach that number this time around.  Connolly is 3-2-5, minus-1, in 18 career games against Pittsburgh.

In the end…

If there is a new wrinkle in this series, it is in how different the games in Pittsburgh and Washington have played out recently.  In the last four games in Pittsburgh, the teams combined for 43 goals, the Pens holding a 23-20 edge.  In Washington, the last four games were played to a total of 27 goals, the Caps having an 18-7 edge.  It argues for a more close-to-the-vest sort of game on Wednesday, although in this context, that is a relative thing.  The fault line on this game might rest on the Capitals having a top notch scoring offense and power play, while the Pens have allowed five or more goals in three of their last four contests.

Capitals 5 – Penguins 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Oilers at Capitals, November 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

November got off to a rough start for the Washington Capitals with an overtime loss to the Dallas Stars to start a four-game home stand after coming back from down a goal in the third period.  The Caps get to turn things around on Monday night, though, when they host the Edmonton Oilers in a rematch of teams who last faced one another on October 25^th, a 4-1 Oiler win in Edmonton.

The Caps are 1-1-1 since that meeting, a record entirely in line with their meandering journey among wins and losses to start the season.  On the other hand, the Oilers go into this contest 4-1-0 since that meeting, three of those wins coming on the road in three tries.

As you might expect, Connor McDavid has figured prominently in the Oiler scoring since these teams last met.  He has points in all five games since Edmonton defeated Washington (3-4-7, plus-5), and he has points in 12 of the 13 games in which he played so far this season.  Only Nashville held him off the score sheet in a 3-0 win over the Oilers on October 20^th.  McDavid plays for a club renowned over its history for its offensive firepower, but already he is closing in on, if not in the top-20 in franchise history in a number of offensive categories, despite this being only his fourth season in the NHL:

• Goals: 96/22^nd
• Assists: 181/18^th
• Points: 277/21^st
• Even-strength goals: 79/21^st
• Power play assists: 54/T-20^th
• Power play points: 69/22^nd
• Game-winning goals: 20/14^th
• Overtime goals: 5/T-2^nd
• Points per game: 1.25/4^th

Keep in mind, McDavid is not yet 22 years old, and his 222 games played ranks 68^th in club history. 

Drake Caggiula was undrafted, played junior hockey with the Stouffville Spirit of the Ontario Junior Hockey League, and then spent four years with the University of North Dakota in the NCAA.  After his four-year tour with UND in which he scored 62 goals in 162 games, Caggiula signed a two-year entry level contract with the Oilers in May 2016.  After two seasons in which he posted 20 goals and 38 points in 127 games, he was signed to a two-year extension by the Oilers last June.  He responded with five goals in nine games so far this season, all of them coming in his last five contests, including a pair of two-goal efforts, one in a 5-3 win over Nashville on October 27^th, the other in a 4-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks last Thursday.  Caggiula has not yet recorded a point against the Caps in three career games played against them.

Once upon a time, Milan Lucic was going to be the next big thing among NHL power forwards.  Over a five-season span with the Boston Bruins from 2010-2011 through 2014-2015, Lucic potted 105 goals in 367 games, an average of more than 23 goals per 82 games.  Paired with his physical edge (1006 credited hits, 503 penalty minutes), he was earning a reputation for being a player to be feared when on the ice.  Then, he headed west to the Los Angeles Kings in a trade for Martin Jones, Colin Miller, and the Kings’ first round pick of the 2015 entry draft.  He had a productive season in Los Angeles (20-35-55) before heading to Edmonton as a free agent.  His first season there, in 2016-2017, he topped his previous season in goal scoring (23) and posted his fifth career 50-point season (50).  Last year, however, his goal total plummeted (to 10), and he finished with only 34 points, his lowest total of any season in which he appeared in more than 50 games since he had 27 points in 77 games in his rookie season in Boston.  He has not given any signs of coming out of that slump so far.  Lucic is 1-3-4, minus-6 (team worst), in 13 games.  In 34 career games against the Caps, Lucic is 7-14-21, minus-6.

1.  Since the league instituted the Gimmick, only four teams have more trick shot wins than the Oilers (70) – New York Islanders (75), Pittsburgh Penguins (75), New York Rangers (74) and New Jersey Devils (71).  Wonder what it is with the New York area teams.

2.  Nine teams went into Week 6 with eight or more wins in regulation and overtime.  The Oilers are one of them (eight).  Trouble for them is that six of the eight teams in that group play in the Western Conference.

3.  The Oilers’ penalty kill is something of which the Caps might take advantage.  At 70.8 percent, their road penalty kill is fifth-worst in the league.

4.  Edmonton does a very good job of playing within the rules.  Their 48 penalties taken so far is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league.  Only Vegas (45), Toronto (43) and Pittsburgh (38) have taken fewer.

5.  The Oilers can be sloppy with the puck.  They have been charged with 163 giveaways so far, fourth-most in the league.

1.  No team has scored more power play goals on home ice than the Caps (11), and their 47.8 percent conversion rate on home ice tops the league, almost eight points ahead of their closest pursuer (Winnipeg at 40.9 percent).

2.  Only five teams have fewer penalty minutes taken than the Caps (106).

3.  The 158 blocked shots recorded by the Caps are 30^th in the league, only ten more than the bottom-ranked Florida Panthers, whose 148 blocked shots were recorded in one fewer game than Washington.

4.  If the volume of faceoffs is an indicator of game flow, things have flowed rather well in Caps games.  Their total of 734 draws taken is fourth-fewest in the league.

5.  Trailing after one period continues to matter for the Caps.  They are winless in four such instances this season (0-2-2).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Edmonton: Alex Chiasson

As a member of the Washington Capitals last season, Alex Chiasson played a support role, posting nine goals and 18 points in 61 regular season games, one goal and two points in 16 postseason games as the Caps marched to a championship.  It was a decent season, quite in line with his previous four full seasons in the league in which he scored 44 goals and posted 99 points in 313 games (nine goals and 19 points per 61 games).  Then he signed a one-year/$650,000 contract with the Oilers on October 2^nd.  That contract has to be one of the most cost-effective in the early going this season.  Chiasson has six goals, third-most on the club, while having appeared in only eight of the Oilers’ 13 games played.  His 46.2 shooting percentage (six goals on 13 shots) is tops in the league among the 514 skaters with ten or more shots on goal this season.  His plus-7 in eight games is tied for third-best on the club, and he has yet to take a penalty.  He is one of eight players in the league having appeared in at least eight games with at least six goals, playing at least 12 minutes per game with no penalty minutes recorded.  It might be sustainable, but it feels good while it lasts.  Chiasson is 2-4-6, plus-5, in nine career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Since he came into the league, Alex Ovechkin has 617 goals, 200 more than the second-place skater on that list (Sidney Crosby has 417).  Of that total, 313 goals were scored on home ice, a total that would tie him with Ilya Kovalchuk for 18^th place on the total goals scored list.  With two more goals, Ovechkin will have tied Jarome Iginla for the most total goals scored on home ice over the last 20 seasons, and if he does it against Edmonton, he will have done it in 229 fewer home games (510) than did Iginla (739).  When Ovechkin went without a goal in the Caps’ 4-3 overtime loss to Dallas, it was the first time this season that Ovechkin went consecutive home games without a goal.  One thing that has been consistent in Ovechkin’s game is success with high shot volumes.  His 47 shots on goal ranks an uncharacteristically low 17^th (tied with Claude Giroux and Johnny Gaudreau), but the Caps have not yet lost when he had five or more shots in a game this season (4-0-0).  On the other hand, the Caps are 1-4-3 when he had fewer than five shots on goal.  Ovechkin is 10-10-20, plus-2, in 17 games against Edmonton.

In the end…

The Caps are closing in on having played 20 percent of their schedule, and they have yet to establish much consistency or rhythm to their game.  Their defensive efforts have been spotty, their goaltending uneven, and their special teams tilted far to the power play side of success.  As they head into the second of a five-game home stand, the Caps still have an opportunity to take advantage of home ice to jump a couple of rungs on the standings ladder, but they will have to sustain a higher level of effort in all three zones and at every position to make that objective come through.

Capitals 4 – Oilers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 5

It was a long time coming, but it was bound to happen sooner of later.  The Washington Capitals were winless for Week 5 and find themselves stuck in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division and tenth in the Eastern Conference.  It has not been a disastrous start, but it is not the start Capitals Nation hoped for, either.

Record: 0-1-1

It was a light week of work for the Caps, who have had to deal with a quirky schedule in which they didn’t start their week’s work before Wednesday for the fourth time in five weeks.  And, it was their third week in five in which they took the ice only twice.  The takeaway in terms of record is that the winless week for the Caps was their first since Week 16 of last season in which they went 0-1-1, dropping a 4-3 overtime decision to the Nashville Predators and a 3-2 decision to the Montreal Canadiens.

That the Caps lost to Montreal in Week 5 at Bell Centre was perhaps as clear an indicator that things are not quite right with the team so far.  The Caps took a 13-0-2 record in their previous 15 games at Bell Centre into this week’s game and spit the bit in the third period, turning a 4-3 advantage into a 6-4 loss, including allowing goals two seconds apart in the last minute (the latter an empty netter), a record for shortest time between two goals in NHL history.

The Caps are now 12 games into the season, and they have yet to post wins in consecutive games.  No team can win a Stanley Cup in November, but they can lose one.  Falling behind too much, too early, means there are just so many teams to climb over as the season moves along.  That the Caps are only two points clear of the division’s last place team (New York Rangers) should be cause for concern.

Offense: 3.50/game (season: 3.75/game, rank: T-1st)

In any other week, scoring three and a half goals per game would look good.  Unfortunately, the Caps could not score often enough to overcome deficiencies in other areas (more on that below).  The Caps had decent balance among the scorers, five players splitting the seven goals scored (Lars Eller and Alex Ovechkin each had a pair).  Fourteen skaters recorded points, Eller leading them with three points.

If there was an odd part of the offense on an individual level, it was that the Caps had three defensemen record points in Week 5, none of them being John Carlson.  He averaged more than 25 minutes in the two games, but he had only three shots on goal and finished a minus-5 for the week.  Getting Michal Kempny and Dmitry Orlov in the scoring (each with an assist to double their season points total) was a welcome turn.

Defense: 5.00/game (season: 3.83/game, rank: 28th)

Only five teams allowed fewer shots for the week than the Caps, but hold off on that “stingy defense” notion.  The Caps allowed 81 shots on goal in two games; they allowed 100 shot attempts at 5-on-5 for the two games.  These are not good numbers.  The 63 5-on-5 shot attempts the Caps allowed the Canadiens in the first game of the week were the most allowed to any opponent so far.  They improved in this regard against Dallas, allowing only 37 shot attempts at fives in the second game of the week (third-fewest through 12 games), but that was indicative of the inconsistency that has plagued the team through the first dozen games.

Goaltending: 4.38 / .888 (season: 3.61 / .887 / 1 SO)

It was Braden Holtby’s week, and it was not one for the scrapbooks.  The defense in front of him did not help much, but it was a return to a week without reaching the .900 save percentage mark.  Holtby has been a goaltender that thrived on heavy shot volumes over his career, but 80 shots over two-plus games was an extraordinarily high volume.  It started with the Canadiens raining 19 shots on his net in the first period of the first game of the week, and it ended with Dallas recording seven shots in just over three minutes of overtime before pinning the overtime loss on Holtby.  In between it was a case of an odd pattern of shots faced.  Holtby faced 30 first period shots and 26 third period shots for the week, but he took on only 17 shots in the second periods of the two games in Week 5.  Still, the results were disappointing.  At week’s end, Holtby ranked 35^th of 41 goaltenders in goals against average (3.62; minimum: 250 minutes played) and 34^th in save percentage (.888).  Curiously, it is a familiar neighborhood in the goalie rankings.  Compare his numbers to those of former netmate Philipp Grubauer (3.56, .893) and Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray (3.68, .890), and there are enough goalie troubles to go around among familiar faces.

Power Play:  1-for-4/25.0 percent (season: 35.9 percent, rank: 1st)

For the fifth consecutive week the Caps finished the week with a power play efficiency rate of 25 percent or better.  That is the good news.  The bad news is the small volume of chances, only four for the two games of the week.  The Caps finished the week having enjoyed the fifth-fewest number of power play chances in the league.  That they have the second-most power play goals (14, one behind St. Louis) is testament to the effectiveness of their power play.

What they did not get in Week 5 was so much as a single power play shot on goal against Montreal in the first game of the week.  And, they had only one chance with the man advantage.  It was the second time this season that the Caps were held to a single power play opportunity and their second loss in such instances.  Washington had one power play chance, without converting, in a 4-1 loss to Edmonton on October 25^th.

That the Caps recorded a power play goal and earned at least a standings point against Dallas is not unusual.  It brought the Caps’ record to 5-1-2 in games in which they scored a power play goal.  Still, four shots on goal in 7:18 of power play time is a quiet week on this front.

Penalty Killing: 4-for-4 / 100.0 percent (season:  75.0 percent, rank: 23rd)

Here is perhaps the most bizarre week-to-week fact coming out of Week 5.  The Caps have had two weeks in five in which their penalty killing was 80 percent are better, and those are the two losing weeks that the Caps have had so far.  Washington killed eight of ten shorthanded situations in Week 2 and went 1-2-0.  In Week 5 they killed all four of their shorthanded situations and went 0-1-1.  They did a fine job in suppressing shots while down a man, allowing the Canadiens only two shots on goal on two power plays and Dallas only one shot on goal on two power plays.

Faceoffs: 67-for-117 / 57.3% percent (season: 48.6 percent, rank: 24th)

If the Caps did one thing well in Week 5, it was take faceoffs.  And here might be evidence of how inconsequential such results are, but with a caveat.  Washington did a fine job in the offensive zone, winning 23 of 33 draws for the week (69.7 percent).  But two things about defensive zone draws were noteworthy.  First, they took 43 defensive zone draws for the week, ten more than they took in the offensive zone.  Second, they won only 21 of them (48.8 percent).

Three of the four skaters taking at least ten draws for the week finished over 50 percent – Nicklas Backstrom (63.9 percent), Lars Eller (61.5 percent) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (51.7 percent).  Only Nic Dowd among that group was under 50 percent(43.8).  All four were worse in the defensive end than they were in the offensive end, the Caps enjoying first possession on a regular basis in the offensive end, but having to go seeking the puck too often in the defensive end.

Goals by Period:

Well, the Caps were consistent, just not in a way they would like to carry forward.  Three goals allowed in each of the first, second, and third periods of games for the week was a recipe for poor results.  It is part of a consistency that has plagued the Caps all season.  Through five weeks the Caps have allowed 15 first period goals, 14 second period goals, and 15 third period goals.

On the other side, the Caps had a fine week in the period with the long change, posting five goals in the second periods of two games.  However, one goal in each of the first and third periods of games was indicative of slow starts and weak finishes, although that lone third period goal (a power play goal by Evgeny Kuznetsov) did allow the Caps to record a standings point against Dallas.

Year over Year:

Yes, the Caps do have a better record, year-over-year, through 12 games.  Yes, they score more (almost 30 percent more goals scored).  They are closer to 50 percent in shot attempts-for percentage than they were through 12 games last season.  More takeaways, fewer penalties.  The power play is much better than it was at a similar juncture last season, and while the penalty kill hasn’t improved, it is having to endure those situations at a lower frequency. 

By most measure, the Caps are in a better place after 12 games this season than they were after 12 games last season, but it feels strangely inadequate.  That is one price to pay for winning a championship.

In the end…

The Caps are 12 games in, and they haven’t won consecutive games.  That is the bottom line of what has been an inconsistent level of production among a number of statistical categories, even if on balance those numbers are better than last season through as many games.  The defense and goaltending have been especially troublesome, largely negating a good offense overall and a powerful power play.  The good news here is that defense is largely a product of effort applied to scheme, and that is something that can be corrected.  That, however, will require a level of sustained focus that has eluded the team so far.  Perhaps with a more regular diet of games in November, without the long stretches of time between games they worked through in October, that focus will be easier to sustain.  It had better be.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Lars Eller (2-1-3, 61.5 faceoff wins, 52.63% shot attempts-for on ice at 5-on-5)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-0-2, 8 shots on goal, 20 shot attempts)
• Third Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2, even, 63.9 percent faceoff wins, six shots on goal)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Stars at Capitals, November 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it seems like weeks since the Washington Capitals last played at Capital One Arena, it has been.  Two weeks, in fact, since the Caps dropped a 6-5 Gimmick decision to the Florida Panthers.  The Caps return home on Saturday night to face the Dallas Stars after splitting a four-game road swing through Canada (2-2-0).

Washington will take the ice on Saturday hoping to find some epoxy or sealant to plug the holes in what has been a leaky defense so far.  Despite splitting the four decisions on the road over the last couple of weeks, the Caps allowed 15 goals in the four games, the 3.75 goals allowed per game being only marginally better than the 3.82 goals allowed per game overall over their first 11 contests of the season.

Opening a five-game home stand against the Stars might not be the worst way to get back on track.  The Stars have been a streaky team in the early going, opening the season winning three of four games, before dropping three in a row.  They have won four of five games going into this contest, 2-1-0 on their current road trip.

“Streaky” might be a word to describe their offense, too.  After scoring 17 goals in their first four games of the season (4.25 per game), Dallas has 19 goals in their last eight games (2.38 per game).  It is balanced scoring overall, though, both in the lineup (16 players have scored goals) and at the top of the scoring list.  Three Stars are tied for the team lead in goals with five apiece, and frankly, there are no surprises among them.

Jamie Benn, for example (five goals in 12 games), topped the 30-goalmark in four of his last five seasons.  Since posting 34 goals in the 2013-2014 season, Benn has more goals scored (177) than any player in the league except Alex Ovechkin (246) and Sidney Crosby (179).  Now in his tenth NHL season, he is sixth on the all-time franchise list in goals scored (259) and would seem to be a virtual lock to climb into fourth place (Neal Broten: 274) by year’s end.  Of his five goals this season, three were recorded on power plays; he had ten or more power play goals in three of the last four seasons, coming up one shot last season.  Despite being drafted in the fifth round (129th overall) in the 2007 entry draft, Benn is the second-ranked goal scorer in his draft class, trailing only Chicago’s Patrick Kane (323), although Benn has played in almost 160 fewer games (679 to 835 for Kane).  Benn is 6-8-14, plus-13, in 13 career games against Washington.

Alexander Radulov isn’t much of a surprise at the top of the Dallas goal-scoring list, either.  Although his NHL career has been beset by interruptions (2008-2009 through 2010-2011 with Salavat Yulayev Ufa in the KHL and 2012-2013 through 2016-2017 with CSKA Moskva in the KHL), he has been a productive goal scorer, averaging 24.9 goals per 82 games.  He is shooting at a torrid pace, his five goals coming on only 18 shots (27.8 percent) in seven games (he missed four games in late October to lower body injury before returning against Montreal on October 20th; he missed Dallas 2-1 loss in Toronto to the Maple Leafs on Thursday).  In six career games against Washington, Radulov is 3-3-6, minus-2.  He is also listed as day-to-day after aggravating his lower body injury.

John Klingberg is the third member of the Stars with five goals and is one of a handful of defensemen averaging at least a point per game so far this season (5-7-12 in 12 games).  In his fifth NHL season, he has demonstrated himself to be one of the most prolific offensive defensemen in the game.  Over that span he ranks 14th in goals scored (47), fourth in assists (179), and third in points (226).  With his production, his ice time has increased steadily, from 21:50 per game as a rookie in 2014-2015 to 25:10 in 12 games so far this season.  The odd part of his season to date is that four of his five goals scored came in the Stars’ first five games, while five of his seven assists have come in his last seven contests.  An odd feature of his scoring over his five-year career is his alternating high shooting percentage years (11.2 percent, 10.5 percent, and 15.6 percent this season in his first, third, and fifth seasons) with low percentage years (5.8 percent and 3.9 percent in his second and fourth season).  Klingberg is 0-8-8, plus-1, in seven career games against the Caps.

1.  Dallas is a great power play team at home (35.0 percent). On the road?  Not so much.  They are limping along at 12.5 percent, 26th in the league, and only two teams have had fewer man advantage chances on the road than Dallas (36) – Arizona and Pittsburgh (31 apiece).

2.  The Stars are one of six teams left that have not allowed a shorthanded goal. Oddly enough, five of those teams play in the West (the New York Islanders being the exception).

3.  Getting power play time in the third period is a comparatively rare occurrence, but Dallas has spent only 14:18 with the man advantage in the final 20 minutes this season. Only the Islanders have spent less (11:33).

4.  Only the Nashville Predators have more wins when scoring first this season (eight) than the Stars (six, tied with the Islanders and the San Jose Sharks).

5.  Dallas has only eight first period goals so far this season. Only Vegas (seven) and Los Angeles (5) have fewer.

1.  Washington has nine third period goals this season. Only Los Angeles and Florida (eight apiece) have fewer.

2.  The Caps could do without the bench penalties. The three they have is exceeded by only three teams – Colorado (four), Minnesota (four), and the New York Rangers (five).

3.  The Caps have played one-goal games right down the middle; they are 2-2-2 so far. Their other three wins were by three or more goals.

4.  Nicklas Backstrom has eight power play point, a total exceeded only by Taylor Hall and Blake Wheeler (nine apiece).

5.  Quality...Quantity…Quality…Quantity. The Caps rank 26th in the league in shot attempts at 5-on-5 (487, tied with Minnesota).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Tyler Seguin

Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Erik Karlsson.  There are a lot of star-caliber players in the NHL, but few are as productive over as big a range of statistical categories as Tyler Seguin since he moved to Dallas from Boston in a trade with Rich Peverley and Ryan Button for Loui Eriksson, Joe Morrow, Reilly Smith and Matt Fraser.  Since his first season in Dallas, in 2013-2014, Seguin’s rankings are impressive:

• Goals: 176/4th
• Points: 398/6th
• Game-winning goals: 30/T-7th
• Shots on goal: 1,548/2nd
• Goals per game: 0.44/8th
• Points per game: 1.00/5th

He just doesn’t seem to get the attention such numbers might deserve.  When he takes the ice against the Caps, it will be his 400th game with the Stars, the 38th player to reach that milestone in franchise history.  His numbers this season (3-11-14, plus-5, in 12 games) are in keeping with his productive nature in Dallas generally, but his three goals on 60 shots so far (5.0 percent) is the worst shooting percentage of his career.  His season to date has also been a bit inconsistent.  He torched Winnipeg, Toronto, and Anaheim for three goals and ten points in a three-game stretch early in the season, but he is without a goal in his last nine games and is 0-4-4 in his last eight contests.  He has yet to score a goal on the road this season.  In 21 career appearances against Washington, Seguin is 9-5-14, plus-4.

Washington: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen does not have the booming shot or responsibility to tee up Alex Ovechkin one-timers like John Carlson.  He doesn’t have quite the physical edge of a Brooks Orpik.  He just gets the job done, night in and night out.  He has been a reliable point producer from the blue line, ranging between 29 and 39 points over his four seasons in Washington preceding this one, that lower end of the range being a product of his missing 14 games last season.  Over those four seasons he led the team in games played by a defenseman (310), was second in assists (110 to 155 for Carlson), was second in points (131 to 199 for Carlson), and was a team-best plus-61, regardless of position.  He goes into Saturday’s game against the team that drafted him (28^th overall in 2005) with a good start to this season (2-5-7 in 11 games).  He has points in four of five home games to date.  Coincidentally, those are the four games on home ice in which the Caps have earned points so far (3-0-1).  He is also a minutes-eater, only once in 11 games skating under 20 minutes.  In 12 career games against Dallas, Niskanen is 1-5-6, minus-2.

In the end…

The Caps have been a hot mess in their own end over the first month of the season.  They allow too many goals (3.82 per game, fourth-most in the league), their penalty kill is iffy (73.8 percent, 24th in the league), and they are still underwater in shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 (48.46 percent).  Their offense has kept them competitive, but a 3.82 goals per game scoring offense and a 36.1 percent power play are not likely to be sustainable over an 82-game season.  This is a club that certainly has the appearance of having lingering effects from the championship season (and off-season), but that is what November is for, to get back to business.  And there is no better place to start than with some home cooking.

Capitals 3 – Stars 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Capitals at Canadiens, November 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their “four straight games out of town” tour (they stopped off at home after the win in Calgary last Saturday) with a visit to Bell Centre to face the Montreal Canadiens.  The Caps are looking to build on the success of the western Canada leg of the journey, having won two of three games.  On the other side, Montreal will be hoping to wash the taste of a 4-1 loss to the Dallas Stars at Bell Centre on Tuesday out of their mouths.

The Canadiens started the season fast, opening with a 4-1-1 record in their first half-dozen games.   Since then, however, Montreal is 2-2-1 to slip to 6-3-2 overall and into fourth place in the Atlantic Division.  Montreal has had a consistent offense in the 2-2-1 slide, scoring three goals in four consecutive games (five in a row, including the win against the St. Louis Blues before this slide started) before being held to one by Dallas.  The inconsistency has been on the defensive side of the ledger where the Habs have alternated four goals allowed in games with better defensive efforts, a 3-2 win over the Calgary Flames and a 3-0 whitewashing of the Boston Bruins.

The defensive inconsistency lately has not spread to goaltender Carey Price, at least not in its entirety.  He was the goalie of record in four of the five decisions (2-1-1), but he posted a goals against average of 2.23 in those games and a save percentage of .919.  Price is coming off a season in which he appeared in only 49 games, a season interrupted by injury absences due to a lower body injury and a concussion.  It matters because heavier workload has agreed with him over the years.  Six times before this season Price appeared in more than 60 games, and in four of them he posted save percentages over .920, and in only one of them did he post a goals against average over 2.50 (2.83 in 52 appearances in 2008-2009).  He has been especially tough to beat at home over his career – 164-92-47, 2.30, .922, with 28 of his 41 career shutouts.  However, he has struggled against the Caps, going 6-13-4, 3.30, .891, with one shutout in 23 career appearances.

Max Domi leads the Canadiens in points (5-6-11), and he is one of 20 players in the league to have posted at least ten points and logged at least ten penalty minutes (he has 10, although six of those came in Tuesday’s loss to Dallas).  Domi is in his first season with Montreal, having arrived in a trade with Arizona for Alex Galchenyuk in one of those trades in the category “players who need new scenery.”  Domi had a six-game points streak stopped against Dallas (5-3-8), and he will come into this game having scored only one of his five goals on home ice this season.  His dispatch to Montreal would seem to be a product of his being unable to capitalize and improve on a fine rookie season in which he went 18-34-52, plus-3, with Arizona.  He managed only 18 goals and 73 points over the next two seasons combined.  His 11 points in 11 games so far would suggest the change in scenery has been beneficial.  Domi is 0-4-4,. Plus-4, in six career games against Washington.

For the first seven seasons of Jeff Petry’s career, he was a defenseman of modest offensive production, more of a “glue that binds” sort of player.  He never topped eight goals in any of those seasons (four-plus seasons with Edmonton and two-plus seasons with the Canadiens) and never reached the 30-point mark.  Last year was a different story.  In the first season of his career in which he appeared in every contest in an 82-game season, he went 12-30-42, the goals, assists, and points being career bests.  He did it largely by being the go-to force from the blue line on the power play.  Petry’s six power play goals doubled his career total, and his 17 power play assists were more than he recorded in his previous five seasons combined (13).  He also skated 23:30, also a career high.  His goal scoring so far this season is not matching last year’s pace (one), but he does have nine points in 11 games so far.  Petry is 2-3-5, minus-4, in 13 career games against the Caps.

1.  Montreal does a good job suppressing shots.  The 28.4 shots per game allowed is fifth-best in the league.

2.  The Canadiens have been gifted a lot of power play chances on home ice (28/third-most in the league), but they have done little with those opportunities (17.8 percent/18^th).

3.  Montreal closes games poorly.  They have only six third period goals all season, last in the league.

4.  The second period is known as the “long change” period for team, their bench being across the red line from the goal they must defend.  For the Canadiens, it is the “power play period.”  No team has spent more time on the man advantage in the middle period than Montreal so far (35:11), almost 12 more minutes than they have spent shorthanded (11:47).

5.  The Canadiens are capable of playing from behind with a certain urgency in one respect.  Their shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (61.50) is fourth-best in the league.

1.   Alex Ovechkin scored eight goals in October. It will surprise precisely no one that since he came into the league in the 2005-2006 season, Ovechkin has scored goals in more games in the month of October than any other player, 64 games in all (72 goals).  It would surprise only a few that Ovechkin happens to have more goal-games in every month of the NHL regular season calendar (October through April) since he came into the league.

2.  John Carlson finished October with five goals in ten games. He did not record a goal in October either last season or the preceding season.  Last season he went 14 games without a goal before potting one, and in the preceding season he started the season with a 25-game goalless streak.

3.  It would be good if the Caps led after two periods. In each of their five wins to date, the Caps led after 40 minutes.  They have yet to win a game when trailing or tied at the second intermission.

4.  OK, so which forward you got with the most shorthanded time on ice per game… Lars Eller? Chandler Stephenson?  Nicklas Backstrom?  No, no, and no.  It’s Devante Smith-Pelly with 2:11 per game.

5.  The key to stopping the Caps’ power play might be to keep them from getting any shots to the net. Sounds almost cliché, but the Caps have 13 goals on 44 shots, a 29.5 percent shooting percentage.  Evgeny Kuznetsov has five power play goals on only 11 shots 45.4 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Brendan Gallagher

Did you ever have something in your shoe that doesn’t quite hurt, but annoys the heck out of you?  You take off your shoe, shake it vigorously, put it back on, only to find your annoyance is still there?  Well, that’s Brendan Gallagher.  He’s not so much a “little ball of hate” in the mold of Pat Verbeek from years gone by or Brad Marchand of more recent vintage.  He’s more like, “what’s that damned buzz in my ear that won’t go away?”  But while he might annoy, poke, prod, get under the skin of opponents, he has developed into a talented offensive player.  Last season he posted a career high of 31 goals, more than he had in 117 games over the previous two seasons combined (29). He came out of the box hot this season, posting seven goals in 11 games played to date, three of them game-winners.  Only once in six games on home ice so far has he failed to record a goal (October 11^th in a 3-0 loss to Los Angeles).  Gallagher is 3-1-4, minus-7, in 14 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Michal Kempny

After being concussed in a pre-season game in St. Louis on September 25th, Michael Kempny was absent from the lineup until taking the ice for the third regular season game for the Caps.  His ice time has not be rationed in any extraordinary way since his return, ranging from 16:06 against Edmonton last Thursday to 20:38 against Calgary last Saturday, averaging 17:44, about a minute more than he averaged with the Caps in 22 games to close the regular season last spring.  What he does not have in those minutes is point.  Kempny has one assist, that coming in a 6-5 Gimmick loss to Florida on October 19th.  Not that he was a big point producer last spring, posting two goals and an assist in those 22 games with Washington.  However, with Dmitry Orlov (0-1-1) and Christian Djoos (0-2-2) with sluggish offensive starts from the blue line, any contribution Kempny makes would certainly be welcome.  He does not have a point in four career games against Montreal.

In the end…

Washington has had an unworldly level of success at Bell Centre.  The Caps have not lost a game in regulation in Montreal since January 10, 2009 (a 5-4 loss on a Sergei Kostitsyn goal with less than 30 seconds left).  Since then, the Caps are 13-0-2, only three times in that span did the Caps allow more than two goals, and only four times did they allow more than 30 shots on goal.  They have outscored Montreal by a 53-28 margin in that span.  The default position might be “Montreal is due.”  We don’t do default.

Washington 4 – Montreal 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 4

The annual rite of October for the Washington Capitals, the trip to western Canada, is in the books.  Week 4 was a successful one on balance, but not without its fits and starts.  A lot like the Caps’ season so far.

Record: 2-1-0

Washington came into Week 4 not having won consecutive games this season.  They ended it in the same condition, beginning and ending the week with wins in Vancouver and Calgary against the Canucks and the Flames with a loss to the Edmonton Oilers in the middle.  It was an improvement over last season’s trip west, where the Caps went 1-2-0.  Over the past six seasons that featured the October trip to western Canada, the Caps are now 10-8-0 against these three teams.  Throw in a couple of visits to Winnipeg as part of the trip (2013 and 2016), both of which resulted in Caps wins, and Washington is 12-8-0 in western Canada over the last six seasons.

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 3.80/game, rank: 2nd)

The offense came down a notch in Week 4, but averaging more than four goals a game isn’t a sustainable scoring rate in today’s NHL.  Still, the nine goals the Caps did score were spread around liberally.  Seven different skaters hit the back of the net, Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie each scoring a pair.  There were 12 skaters recording points for the week, Ovechkin leading the club with five.

The point spread for the week left the Caps with five players in double digits for the season in points (Evgeny Kuznetsov (15), Ovechkin (14), John Carlson (14), Nicklas Backstrom (13), and Oshie (10).  Only the Toronto Maple Leafs have that many through four weeks.  Carlson finished the week tied with Toronto’s Morgan Rielly in points by defensemen (14) and tied with Dallas’ John Klingberg in goals by defensemen (five).

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 3.60/game, rank: T-23rd)

The Caps did a decent job of suppressing shots in Week 4, holding the trio of opponents to 86 shots on goal, only 71 of those at even strength.  It is part of a broader encouraging sign in this area.  With the Caps holding the three opponents of Week 4 to 32 or fewer shots (Edmonton recorded that number), the Caps have allowed more than 35 shots only twice this season through ten games.  Only five teams have had fewer games with more than 35 shots allowed than the Caps.

The Caps dressed 19 skaters in Week 4, and 14 of them were even or better in shot attempts-for on ice for the week.  Only Devante Smith-Pelly finished lower than minus-6 (minus-13).  Smith-Pelly and Nic Dowd were the only two Caps to finish in minus territory in tied situations (minus-1 and minus-2, respectively.  Overall, the Caps’ 55.56 shot attempts-for percentage was seventh-best in the league for the week.

Goaltending: 2.62 / .906 (season: 3.45 / .886 / 1 SO)

The goaltending struggled over the first three weeks of the season, but there were signs in Week 4 that things are improving.  Braden Holtby got the call in the first two games of the week and allowed five goals on 55 shots (.909 save percentage).  Not a great week by any means, especially by his standards, but coming into this week he had a .881 save percentage and was pulled after 20 minutes in his last appearance before this week in a 6-5 Gimmick loss to the Florida Panthers.  Holtby’s even strength save percentage (.956) was superb, eighth best among goalies who appeared in two or more games in Week 4.  He still has work to do, his season even strength save percentage of .913 ranking in the lower half of the league, but Week 4 got him pointed in the right direction.

Pheonix Copley got the other start in Week 4 and recorded his first NHL win in the Caps’ 4-3 trick shot win in Calgary over the Flames.  It was Copley’s second straight trip to the freestyle competition, and he turned things around smartly.  After allowing three goals on four tries against the Panthers in the 6-5 Gimmick loss, Copley turned away three of four attempts by Calgary in garnering his first NHL win.  Going the maximum isn’t a bad way to get one’s first win.

Power Play:  3-for-9 / 33.3 percent (season: 37.1 percent, rank: 1st)

It says something about the Caps’ power play that it could score once in every three tries for a week and drop in efficiency.  That was the week for the Caps, going 3-for-9 but retaining their hold on the top spot in the league’s power play rankings.  The number one unit of Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Oshie all put points on the board, Ovechkin being the lone player with a hand in all three power play goals (one goal, two assists).

Washington recorded power play goals in two of the three games for the week.  That brings the total to power play goals in seven of ten games through four weeks.  And so far, it matters.  The Caps are 5-1-1 in games in which they recorded at least one power play goal, 0-2-1 in the three games in which they were shut out on the man advantage, one of those defeats being the loss to Edmonton in the middle game of the week.

Penalty Killing: 8-for-11 / 72.7 percent (season: 72.5 percent, rank: 26th)

The Caps failed in three tries coming into this week to reach 80.0 percent for the week in penalty killing.  They ended Week 4 looking for that first 80 percent week.  The alarming thing about it is that after shutting out the Boston Bruins and the Vegas Golden Knights in the first three games of the season, the Caps have allowed at least one power play goal in seven straight games.  That they are 3-3-1 in those seven games is not likely to be mere coincidence.

The Caps ran into a pair of teams – Edmonton and Calgary – with efficient power plays on home ice (they ranked eighth and ninth, respectively, in home ice power play at the end of Week 4), but Vancouver didn’t have a power play goal on home ice until they scored against the Caps.

Faceoffs: 86-for-173 / 49.7% percent (season: 47.0 percent, rank: 28th)

It was an up and down week in the circle for the Caps.  Oddly enough (or a demonstration of the limited effect faceoffs have), the Caps won the two games in which they were under 50 percent and lost the game in which they topped 50 percent.

The Caps were as erratic in the ends for the week, but with a different distribution, finishing over 50 percent against Edmonton and Calgary in the offensive end, but under 50 percent against Vancouver to start the week.  In the defensive end it was over 50 percent against Vancouver and Edmonton, and under 50 percent against Calgary.

On an individual level, it was the third and fourth line centers leading the way.  Lars Eller (51.4 percent) and Nic Dowd (57.7 percent) had good weeks, while Nicklas Backstrom (46.8 percent) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (44.2 percent) had off weeks.  Kuznetsov’s number was a product of a weak week in the neutral zone (20.0 percent).  He was at or over 50 percent in the ends – 50 percent in the offensive zone and 64.3 percent in the defensive zone.

Goals by Period:

It was more or less an even week for the Caps on a period by period basis.  They held opponents to a draw in the first period, three goals apiece, while flipping a four goal/two goal result in the second and third periods with their opponents’  two goal/four goal results for the second and third periods.  What they did not do was score in the first period against Edmonton, while the Oilers did post one.  Getting off on the wrong foot was something from which the Caps could not recover in what was a lackluster effort overall. 

As it is, the Caps finished the week tied for fourth in first period goals scored (12) and tied for second in second period goals scored (16).  That they close poorly – tied for 21^st in third period goals scored (nine) – is a matter to address.  On the other side of the ledger, the Caps have work to do in the first period, tied for fifth-most goals allowed (12).  There is a certain consistency there, but not of a good sort, the Caps allowing another 11 goals in the second periods of games and 12 goals in the third periods of games.

Year over Year:

The Caps are ahead of last season’s wins and points pace, and they are scoring at a more frequent pace.  What is telling in the early going is a 39-shot swing in shot differential, from minus-37 through ten games last season to plus-2 so far this season.  The offensive improvement is largely a product of a scorching power play that is more than 50 percent more efficient this year so far than last.  Unfortunately, that improvement in efficiency has not extended to the penalty kill, which is roughly as inefficient this season as it was at the same point last year.  The possession numbers are roughly unchanged on a year-to-year basis.  The “grittership” numbers are generally better, this year over last, but that giveaway number reflects the inconsistent start the Caps have had.

In the end…

A 2-1-0 record out of the western provinces trip has to be considered a successful result.  However, how they got there is no cause for complacency.  There was an iffy effort in Edmonton followed up by a game in which the Caps gave up a third-period lead late in regulation before pulling out the win in the Gimmick.  The Caps will have some time to address those things that need addressing, since they do not take the ice again until Thursday in Montreal in what will be a light week of game workload.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-3-5, minus-1, 1 GWG, 24 shot attempts, 12 SOG, 1-2-3 on power play)
• Second Star: John Carlson (1-3-4, minus-2, 2 power play assists, 24:51 average ice time)
• Third Star: Pheonix Copley (33 saves on 36 shots, first NHL win)