The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 27: Capitals at Golden Knights, December 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It might be a good thing that the Washington Capitals are heading on the road – far away – to start this week’s schedule.  After surrendering five unanswered goals in a span of 20:14 over the second and third periods, ultimately losing a 6-5 decision to the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday, taking a trip to Las Vegas isn’t the worst thing for the Caps.

That is what lies in store for the Caps as they visit T-Mobile Arena to face the Vegas Golden Knights for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup on that ice sheet last June.  The Caps, who had a seven-game winning streak snapped in the loss to Anaheim, will be looking for their first regular season win, ever, against the Golden Knights on their rink after dropping their only regular season meeting in Las Vegas last season.

Vegas, like the Caps, will enter this game on a loss after putting together a lengthy winning streak.  The Golden Kinghts lost to the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday, 2-1, in the last game of a three-game road trip, after putting together a five game winning streak.

What Vegas lacks in top-end goal scoring, they have in balance this season.  Three skaters share the team lead with ten goals apiece.  Not surprisingly, Max Pacioretty is among them.  Pacioretty, who was traded to Vegas by the Montreal Canadiens for Nick Suzuki, Tomas Tatar and Vegas' 2nd round pick in 2019 Entry Draft, had a sluggish start with his new team, recording only two goals in his first 16 games.  It was not a case of being shy about shooting the puck, not with 44 shots on goal in those 16 games.  It suggested more “slump” than something more structural.  And so it was.  In his last eight games, Pacioretty has eight goals on just 22 shots, the same shooting frequency (2.75 shots per game) that he had in his slow start.  Odd Pacioretty fact – he is the only player to wear jersey number “67” for two franchises, Montreal and Vegas.  He is 5-11-16, minus-3, in 29 career games against Washington.

Jonathan Marchessault is another of the skaters with ten goals going into this contest.  Since becoming a full-time NHL-er in 2016-2017 with the Florida Panthers, Marchessault has been a player who could push the 30-goal mark per season.  He had 30 in 75 games in his last season with the Panthers, and last season (his first with Vegas) he had 27 goals in 77 games.  The ten goals he has in 28 games this season puts him on a pace for 29 goals this season.  He has been in a bit of a drought of late, though.  Marchessault is without a goal in his last seven games, his longest streak of games without a goal this season.  Odd Marchessault fact – The 27-year old Marchessault was undrafted as an amateur and is now in his fifth NHL organization.  He was signed to his first pro contract in June 2011 by the Connecticut Whale, the AHL affiliate of the New York Rangers.  After one season with the Whale, he was signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets.  He played two games with the Blue Jackets before moving on to the Tampa Bay Lightning, where he played in parts of two seasons.  Then it was his breakout season with the Florida Panthers before landing in Vegas last season.  Marchessault is 0-5-5, even, in nine career games against the Caps.

Cody Eakin rounds out the trio of ten-goal scorers for Vegas.  Caps fans will remember Eakin as a third-round pick by Washington in the 2009 entry draft.  Eakin made his way up the Caps’ development ladder, eventually appearing in 30 games for the club in 2011-2012 (4-4-8, plus-2).  After that season he was traded to the Dallas Stars with a second-round draft pick for center Mike Ribeiro.  Eakin spent five seasons with the Stars before being selected by Vegas in the 2017 expansion draft.  Eakin is already within a goal of last year’s total with the Golden Knights (11 in 80 games) and is more than half-way to his career high of 19 goals in 78 games with the Stars in 2014-2015.  He has been a bit streaky in his goals scoring, opening the season with three goals in four games before a seven-game drought.  He followed that up with five goals in seven games before a four-game streak without a goal.  He had a pair of goals against Chicago on November 27^th but is without one in his last two games.  Odd Eakin Fact – sometime soon, Eakin will become the 14^th player of the 2009 draft class to dress for 500 games (he has 484) and the second Capital to do so.  Neither player is with the Caps any longer (Marcus Johansson is the other).  In 11 career games against the Caps, Eakin is 2-3-5, plus-1.

1. Vegas is four games behind their record after 28 games last year (18-9-1) with a 14-13-1 record.

2.  The Golden Knights are struggling with their home power play.  It ranks only 25^th in the league through Sunday (15.2 percent).  What will be something to watch for is that the Knights do not yet have a game on home ice in which they recorded more than one power play goal at home.  They do, however, have power play goals in each of their last two home games.

3.  In one respect, Vegas will pit a strength against a Capital strength.  The second periods of games have been good to the Caps this season, but if they are to add to that, it might not come via the power play.  Vegas has the largest time differential on special teams in the Western Conference in the second periods of games this season (plus-18:26).

4.  Conversely, Vegas has the fourth-worst special teams time differential in the league in the third periods of games this season (minus-10:42).

5.  If Vegas leads after two periods…bad news for the Caps.  The Golden Knights are one of three teams with a perfect record when leading after 40 minutes (11-0-0).  Toronto (14-0-0) and Columbus (9-0-0) are the others.

1.  The Caps have 12 wins when leading after two period this season.  That is tied for fourth-most in the league.  Unfortunately, they missed a chance to tie Tampa Bay for third place on Sunday.  Toronto and Nashville are tied at the top with 14 such wins apiece.

2.  The 6-5 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday was just the second one-goal loss in regulation for the Caps this season (5-2-3).

3.  High shot volumes have not mattered to the Caps.  They are 6-5-3 when recording 30 or more shots, 9-3-0 when recording fewer than 30 shots.

4.  Conversely, the Caps are 11-4-3 when allowing 30 or more shots, 4-4-0 when allowing fewer than 30 shots on goal.

5.  The Caps have the fourth-worst special teams time differential in the league (minus-22:48).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vegas: Nate Schmidt

Nate Schmidt had a disappointing start to the season.  It actually started on September 2^nd, when he was suspended for 20 games for violating terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.  He took his medicine, so to speak, and returned to action on November 18^th in typical good humor…

Unfortunately for Schmidt and the Golden Knights, his performance has been underwhelming since his return.  He goes into Tuesday’s game against his old team with a single assist in eight games despite averaging almost 22 minutes of ice time per game.  Schmidt did not have an especially hot start last season, going 1-3-4 in his first eight games, but he did finish 5-31-36, plus-19 in 76 games, and the Golden Knights went 24-6-0 in games in which he recorded at least one point.  It recommended him to a key role this season, suspension or no suspension.  Schmidt has almost 300 regular season games on his resume and is entering his chronological prime (he turned 27 last summer).  His contributions were an important ingredient in Vegas’ historic inaugural season last year.  If the Golden Knights are to come close to replicating that feat, Schmidt’s numbers will have to improve.  He is 0-1-1, plus-1, in two games against his former club.

Washington: Lars Eller

Lars Eller, the hero of the Stanley Cup final for the Washington Capitals last season, has taken on a bit of a different role this season.  He is something of a cross between “Jack-of-all-trades” and “Mr. Fix-it.”  He has seen his ice time jump by almost two minutes per game, partly due to filling in during the injury absence of Evgeny Kuznetsov (who missed six games with a concussion), and more responsibility on special teams, where his penalty killing ice time is up almost half a minute a game (from 1:48 to 2:12), and his power play ice time is up by 50 seconds a game (from 1:11 to 1:51).  He has been shooting in some bad luck in the first third of the season, his 7.7 shooting percentage (four goals on 52 shots) his worst of his career.  It has not affected his playmaking, his 10 assists already half way to the 20 he had in 81 games last season.  Eller getting on the score sheet is generally a good thing.  The Caps are 7-1-2 in ten games in which he recorded a point so far this season, 4-1-0 when it happens on the road.  Eller does not have a point in three career games against Vegas and is minus-2.

In the end…

This game is a measuring stick for a veteran team.  Going on the road after enduring as gut-wrenching a loss as the Caps had on Sunday requires that such a loss not be included in the baggage brought along.  This is the third time this season that the Caps went on the road following a loss to wrap up a home stand.  The first time, the Caps dropped a Gimmick decision to the Florida Panthers, and then went to Vancouver and knuckled the Canucks, 5-2.  The second time, the Caps lost to the Arizona Coyotes, and then went off and thrashed the Minnesota Wild, 5-2.  We see a pattern here.

Capitals 4 – Vegas 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 9

The Washington Capitals had a relatively light week of work in Week 9, but it was an interesting one nonetheless with goals, breakaway saves, hat tricks, and a bit more suspense than Caps fans might have liked waiting on yet another Department of Player Safety ruling on a Tom Wilson hit.  At the end of the week, the Caps were streaking, fans weren’t freaking, and we were all peeking at the standings that had the Caps at the top of the Metropolitan Division and six points out of the conference lead with two games in hand on the leader.

Record: 2-0-0

A five-game winning streak that the Caps had to open the week became seven with wins over the New York Islanders and the New Jersey Devils.    The pair of three-goal wins made it five straight multi-goal wins for the Caps after starting this winning streak with a pair of overtime wins.  The seven-game winning streak on which the Caps found themselves to end the week was their longest since a nine-game streak from December 31, 2016 through January 15, 2017.  And, after a slow start to the month that saw the Caps go 3-4-1 in their first eight games of the month, the Caps closed with a rush to finish the month with a 10-4-1 record, tying the team record for wins in November, set originally in 1985-1986 (10-3 with one tie) and tied in 2010-2011 (10-2-2).

Offense: 5.00/game (season: 3.56/game, rank: 5th)

The Caps continued to scorch the scoreboard.  Four goals against the Islanders and six against the Devils made it three games in a row with four or more goals and five of six contests with four or more goals.  The top line did the damage in the goal-scoring department, Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom recording three goals apiece, and Alex Ovechkin getting a pair.  Wilson had goals in both games in Week 9, extending his goal streak to five games, the longest of his career.  Since returning from his suspension to open the season, Wilson has goals in six and points in eight of nine games played.

Backstrom recorded his second career hat trick in the 6-3 win over the New Jersey Devils, his first one coming back in on December 13, 2014 in a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  That one was a natural hat trick, Backstrom scoring the game’s first three goals on the way to the win.  Backstrom added an assist against the Devils for his 21st career game with four or more points.  Since he came into the league in 2007-2008, only two players have more such games – Sidney Crosby (23) and teammate Alex Ovechkin (22). 

Ovechkin had goals in both games to extend his goal streak to four games.  He has goals in six of his last seven games (seven goals) and has a seven-game points streak.  Ovechkin has yet to go consecutive games without a point this season.  In adding two assists to his scoring line against the Devils he recorded his ninth multi-point game this season, tied with John Carlson for the team lead.  His 329 career multi-point games are second most since he came into the league, trailing only Sidney Crosby (341).

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 3.04/game, rank: T-16th)

It was a bit of an odd week on the defensive side of the puck.  The Caps held both the Islanders and the Devils under ten shots in the first period of their respective games, 17 shots in all.  Things got a bit out of hand in the final 40 minutes of both games, though, the Caps allowing double digit shots in each of those four periods, 27 total second period shots on goal and  25 third period shots.  It was not as if the Caps sprinted out to big first period leads, Washington tied with the Islanders, 1-1, after one period in the first game of the week and holding a slim 1-0 lead after one period against the Devils.  The odd week extended to shot attempts.  Overall, the Caps’ shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (44.10) might be cause for some concern.  However, the numbers look a lot more respectable in tied situations (53.19 percent) and close situations (47.27 percent).   It is when the Caps were ahead that the numbers looked bad (41.82 percent), not unexpected given that the Caps would win two games by rather wide margins.  And, the Caps trailed for only 2:14 for the week, so their shot attempts-for percentage when trailing was of no particular relevance.

The defensive focus, however, really came down to a single play this week.  That came late in the second period of the Caps’ game against the Devils on Friday when the Devils were trying to get the equalizer in a 2-1 game.  Brett Seney skated up and through the faceoff circle to the right of Caps goalie Braden Holtby with defenseman Michal Kempny trailing him.  Seney sent the puck back below the goal line and continued backing out of the faceoff circle.  After releasing the puck, he was struck by Tom Wilson, sending him face-first to the ice.  Seney was slow to get up, and Wilson was tagged with a match penalty. 

The call was significant for two reasons.  First, it comes a short time since Wilson returned from a 20-game suspension (subsequently reduced to 14 games, although he missed 16 games in all).  Second, a match penalty requires that the player be withheld from competition until the Commissioner rules on supplemental discipline.  A second lengthy suspension was on the table.  As it turned out, the video evidence indicated that the hit, while late, did not target the head, nor did it appear deliberate (a criterion for assessing a match penalty).  And, Seney returned to finish the game.  The Department of Player Safety decided that supplemental discipline was not warranted, but it does seem to indicate that every Wilson hit for the foreseeable future will get considerable scrutiny.

Goaltending: 2.00 / .942 (season: 2.86 / .911 / 1 SO)

If Braden Holtby isn’t the best goaltender in the league after Week 9, he is on a short list for consideration.   Week 9 was a superb week for Holtby, stopping 65 of 69 shots faced overall, and still his numbers got worse over his recent results.  In his last eight appearances starting on November 7^th, Holtby is 6-2-0, 1.70, .950.  Of 38 goalies over that span of time with at least 250 minutes played, Holtby is second in goals against average (Curtis McElhinney is at 1.39) and second in save percentage (McElhinney is at .961).  Of 42 goalies over that same span facing at least 100 shots at even strength, Holby’s .968 save percentage is best in the league.

Holtby was consistent throughout the week, posting save percentages of .920 or better in each of the three periods of play in aggregate, even though he was 7-for-8 in saves in the first period against the Islanders and 8-for-10 in the third period against the Devils.

Power Play:  2-for-6/33.3 percent (season: 28.2 percent, rank: 5th)

The power play did not get a lot of opportunities to produce, but it did a credible job with the opportunities with which it was presented.  That the Caps recorded a power play goal in each game this week made for a November in which they recorded a power play goal in nine of 15 games. 

Even with the low frequency of opportunities, the Caps did manage to spread the shots around.  Eight Caps shared the 12 power play shots on goal for the week, Ovechkin and Wilson leading with three apiece.  Wilson and Backstrom recorded the two goals.

The Caps were efficient at applying pressure with a man advantage, recording 12 shots on goal in 8:17 of power play ice time.  What might have inflated the results for the week was that the Caps scored one of their power play goals (against the Devils) at 5-on-3, the Caps’ third 5-on-3 power play goal of the season.  Only Tampa Bay has more (four).

Penalty Killing: 9-for-9 / 100.0 percent (season: 78.3 percent, rank: 20th)

The centerpiece of performance during the Caps’ recent run of good luck has been the penalty kill.  The 9-for-9 week in Week 9 extended a run in which the Caps are 22-for-23 (95.7 percent in their seven-game winning streak).  It was perhaps the best week for the penalty killers going back to last season.  The Caps allowed only 10 shots on goal in 19:04 of shorthanded ice time, and they managed to kill off a major penalty assessed to Tom Wilson in the Caps’ 6-3 win over the Devils to close the week.  As it is, while the 78.3 percent penalty killing mark is not impressive on its own, it is the highest number with which the Caps finished a week in penalty killing so far this season.  It is a piece of the puzzle that is trending up at the moment.

Faceoffs: 47-for-104 / 45.2 percent (season: 48.6 percent, rank: 22nd)

It was an uneven week for the Caps in the circle.  The overall numbers were not impressive, but if one looks at them in a certain way, they might not have been as bad as appearances.  It was in the offensive end where the Caps struggled, an odd outcome considering the team scored ten goals in two games.  Nevertheless, as a team the Caps had only 10 wins in 30 offensive zone draws for the week (33.3 percent).  What made it odd was that it was Evgeny Kuznetsov who was the only Capital taking more than one offensive zone faceoff who won as many as 50 percent of his faceoffs (3-for-6). 

The Caps did salvage something of the week by going 50 percent in both the defensive (19-for-38) and neutral (18-for-26) zones.  On the other hand, that the Caps took eight more defensive zone draws than faceoffs in the offensive end suggested a bit of a tilt in the wrong direction.

Among the individuals taking at least ten draws, only Nic Dowd finished the week at 50 percent or better overall (8-for-15/53.3 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom (16-for-35/45.7 percvent) and Kuznetsov (16-for-37/43.2 percent) were underwater for the week.

Goals by Period:

Second periods have been good to the Caps this season, but in Week 9 it was the third period in which the Caps dominated, outscoring the Islanders and Devils by a 6-2 margin.  That was inflated some by the two empty net goals against New Jersey in the 6-3 win to end the week, but the scoreboard makes no distinction between goals scored into an empty net and those scored past a goaltender.

As for the other two periods, the Caps won the week by a goal in each, which resulted in an odd outcome.  After nine weeks, the Caps have a plus-12 goal differential in the second period, but they are even in both the first and third periods.

Year over Year:

The first and most important thing coming out of Week 9 in the year-to-year comparison is that the Caps are ahead of last year’s record with one more win and four more points than they had after the 25-game mark last season.  A lot of the difference is the improvement in goal scoring this season, the Caps a plus-17 in goals scored over the 25-game mark last year. 

The goals-scored difference is explained, in part, by the Caps’ better power play so far this season, a plus-5 in goals scored despite having fewer opportunities.  It covers up a penalty kill that is, so far, essentially unchanged from last season, which is to say, underwhelming overall (but, as we saw above, trending upward).

In the grittership area, the Caps continue to project the image of a quality over quantity shooting team with their under-50 percent shot attempts at 5-on-5 this season, just as they were at this point last year.  In other respects in this area – hits, blocked shots, penalties – this year’s club is running behind last years as far as volume goes.

In the end…

On November 25^th last season, when the Caps played their 25^th game of the season, they were 14-10-1 and were fourth in the Metropolitan Division, three points behind the New Jersey Devils and sixth in the Eastern Conference, five points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning.  That the Caps are first and fourth, respectively, in those standings speaks to a measure of improvement in performance.

It is what is to come, perhaps, that will be difficult to match in terms of keeping up with last year’s performance.  Starting with Game 26 on the schedule last season, the Caps went 13-3-2 over their next 18 games.  The Caps embark on their next 25 games on a roll, though, and it would not be surprising to see them challenge that record from last year.  Winning streaks make folks hopeful in that way.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (3-4-7, plus-5, 1-1-2 on power play, 1 GWG, second career hat trick, passed Peter Bondra for second place in all-time team points list)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-0, .942)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-2-4, plus-4, 7 SOG, 11 shot attempts; passed Joe Sakic and Jarome Iginla for 15^th place on all-time goal scoring list)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 26: Ducks at Capitals, December 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their short two-game home stand on Sunday afternoon against the Anaheim Ducks with a chance to extend their current winning streak to eight games, their longest since a nine-game streak from December 31, 2016 through January 15, 2017.  Over this seven-game winning streak to date, the Caps have outscored opponents by a 30-16 margin.

The Caps will be hosting a team on a bit of a roll of its own.  Anaheim has won five of its last six contests, falling only to the Predators in Nashville last Sunday.  In those six games the Ducks outscored their opponents, 16-13, four of the wins coming by one goal, two of them in overtime.

Nick Ritchie is a surprise as the leading goal scorer for the Ducks in their 5-1-0 run.  His four goals doubles that of any other skater, four of whom have a pair.  Ritchie has not given any persistent signs to date that he will grow into a reliably productive goal scorer. In two full seasons coming into this year, Ritchie totaled 24 goals in 153 games.  The four he has in this recent run are his only four of the season to date.  He has dressed for only 13 games so far this season, missing nine games to start the season due to visa issues, and missing another six games to an upper body injury before returning to the lineup on November 9^th.  He comes into this game with points in six of his last eight games (4-4-8).  Ritchie is 2-0-2, plus-1, in five career games against the Caps.

As the calendar flipped to December, no team played more games than the Ducks (28).  Only one defenseman appeared in all of them – Brandon Montour.  Montour, in his second full season and third overall with Anaheim, leads all Duck defensemen in assists (10) and points (12).  The former second-round draft pick of the Ducks (55^th overall in 2014) has displayed some promise as an offensive defenseman.  His nine goals in 80 games last season was second to Hampus Lindholm (13) among Duck defensemen, while his 32 points tied Cam Fowler for second among the blueliners behind Josh Manson (37).  He started this season slowly, going 1-2-3, minu-5, in his first 14 games.  Over his last 14 games, though, Montour is 1-8-9, minus-2.  Montour is without a point in four career games against the Caps and is minus-1.

It has not taken long for goaltender John Gibson to establish himself among the best puck-stoppers in the game.  In his six seasons in the league spanning 200 games, Gibson has the third best goals against average (2.31) and best save percentage (.924) of 59 goalies appearing in at least 100 games.  Only once in those six seasons did he post a goals against average over 2.50 (2.60 in 2014-2015) and only once posted a save percentage under .920 (.914 in 2014-2015).  He has taken on a steadily greater workload, from three games in a brief 2013-2014 stint to 21 games the following season, followed by 40 games, 52 games, and finally 60 games last season, tied for eighth-most in the league.  Gibson has started 22 of the Ducks’ 28 games to date this season.   If Gibson has lagged a bit in goals against average so far this season (2.47), it might be because he has faced the league’s second highest number of shots on goal (751).  His save percentage (.929) ranks fifth among 42 goalies appearing in at least ten games.  Gibson is 1-2-2, 2.77, .913, with one shutout in five career appearances against Washington.

1.  This will be a team trying to overcome an opponent’s strength in recent games with a decided weakness. While the Caps have killed 22 of 23 shorthanded situations in their seven-game winning streak, the Ducks have the 23^rd ranked road power play and are only 3-for-19 overall (15.8 percent) in winning five of their last six games.

2.  No team in the league has an average shot differential as bad as Anaheim’s minus-9.3 shots per game (26.5 for; 35.8 against).

3.  Only the Vancouver Canucks have committed more penalties (120) than Anaheim (113).

4.  Anaheim ranks second in the league in blocked shots (439), trailing only Ottawa (478). 

5.  Anaheim has only three wins this season when outshooting opponents, tied for the third fewest such wins in the league.  A lot of that is a product of the Ducks outshooting opponents only seven times in 28 games.

1.  That nine game streak to end 2016 and begin 2017 for the Capitals featured four shutouts over the last six wins of the streak.  Braden Holtby shutout the Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, and Chicago Blackhawks, while Philipp Grubauer blanked the Philadelphia Flyers in what would be the last game of the winning streak.

2.  That winning streak was not the end of the Caps’ points streak.  They dropped a wild 8-7 overtime decision to the Pittsburgh Penguins to end the winning streak, but they then won three more in a row.  When added to the 2-1 Gimmick loss to the New Jersey Devils in the game before the winning streak started, it made for a 14-game points streak (12-0-2).  It was part of a larger amazing run in the 2016-2017 season in which the Caps went 26-4-5 over a 35-game stretch from December 3^rd through February 18^th.

3.  Washington won ten games in November (10-4-1) tying a franchise high for wins in November (1985-1986 and 2010-2011).

4.  The Caps have a plus-12 goal differential in the second period of games this season (37 for/25 against) but are only even in first periods (24 goals for and against) and third periods (25 for and against) of games.

5.  Only the New York Islanders have fewer faceoff wins at even strength (536) than the Caps (566).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim: Adam Henrique

When the Anaheim Ducks traded for Adam Henrique in November 2017, they might have been anticipating obtaining from the New Jersey Devils a player about to embark on the prime goal-scoring years of his career.  After posting 27 goals in 117 games over parts of three seasons to open his career, Henrique averaged almost 23 goals a season over his next four years, hitting the 30-goal mark in 2015-2016.  However, he had only four goals in 24 games last season when he was traded to the Ducks with Joseph Blandini and New Jersey's 3rd round pick in 2018 entry draft for Sami Vatanen and a conditional third round pick in 2019 or 2020 NHL Draft.  He did step up his goal scoring after heading west last season, netting 30 goals in 57 games.  He has fallen back a bit so far this season with six goals in 28 contests going into Sunday’s game.  What he does have is respectable point production in recent games, recording a point in seven of his last eight games (2-5-7).  Henrique is 6-5-11, minus-13, in 25 career games against Washington.

Washington: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky had a sluggish start to the 2018-2019 season, but he is giving hints that he might be breaking out of those early season doldrums.  He is 2-1-3, plus-1, with eight shots on goal after posting only two goals and two assists with 23 shots on goal over his first 20 games.  Oddly enough, the four goals he has in 25 games this season matches the total he had in his first 25 games last season.  In a way, that’s the good news.  In the “glass-half-empty” category, Burakovsky still has to demonstrate he has the durability that makes a player dependable (remember, he missed 44 games the previous two seasons) and he was stuck on 12 goals in each of the last two seasons before this one.  His skills profile suggests he is capable of much more.  His engagement, even if it does not result in goals or points, matters, at least early.  For example, in 10 games in which he recorded at least two shots on goal, the Caps are 8-2-0, while they are 7-5-3 in the 15 games in which he recorded one or no shots on goal.  Burakovsky is 3-0-3, plus-2, in five career games against Anaheim.

In the end…

Anaheim has not scored more than three goals in a road game since they beat the Sharks in San Jose, 5-2, in their first road game of the season.  On the other side, the Ducks have allowed four or more goals in four of their last seven contests on the road.  They do have wins in their last three road contests, so the Caps cannot just show up for a win.  But the Ducks are not a particularly strong road team this season, either.  The Caps have been an opportunistic team on their seven-game winning streak, whether getting fine goaltending from Braden Holtby (5-0-0, 1.49, .957 on this streak) or goal scoring from a variety of players (seven from Alex Ovechkin, six from Tom Wilson, and five from Nicklas Backstrom, including his second career hat trick against New Jersey on Friday).  The Caps can – and should – have enough weapons to dispatch the Ducks to close the home stand, even with the fine recent play of goalie John Gibson.

Capitals 3 – Ducks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 25: Devils at Capitals, November 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Friday night in one of the more unusual games on the schedule.  The Caps will be hosting a familiar foe, the divisional rival New Jersey Devils, at Capital One Arena.  The odd part of the matchup is that both teams will be taking the ice after three full days off, the Caps last skating on Monday night in a 4-1 win over the New York Islanders, and the Devils skating that same evening in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Florida Panthers.

The Devils are a club that has fallen into a deep rut.  They opened the season winners of their first four games, but since then have managed to win consecutive games only once and are 5-10-4 in their last 19 games to fall into the cellar of the Metropolitan Division.  As one might expect in such a drought, the Devils have been ineffective on both sides of the puck, being outscored by a 72-51 margin in those 19 games.

Taylor Hall has not been a problem in providing offense.  He has a hand in 20 of those 51 points over those 19 games (7-13-20).  It just has not been enough.  Over that 19-game span, the Devils are just 3-2-1 when Hall recorded a goal and 4-5-3 when he recorded a point.  Hall does, however, have a strange number on this year’s ledger he and the Devils want to address – zero.  After recording 13 power play goals last season, tying a career high set in 2011-2012 with the Edmonton Oilers, Hall has yet to score a power play goal this season.  He has never gone a full season without scoring at least three power play goals.  He has been rather adept at setting up power play goals, though.  Earlier this season, Hall had a six-game streak with at least one power play assist as part of a longer run of power play assists in nine of 11 games.  However, he does not have a power play point in his last 11 games.  Perhaps not coincidentally, the Devils are 3-5-3 in those games.  In 12 career games against the Caps, Hall is 3-3-6, minus-2.

Kyle Palmieri started this season in gangbusters fashion.  He had two goals in each of his first three games and seven goals in his first four games overall.  While it has not been exactly crickets since then, he has only five goals in 19 games since then.  It is not as if Palmieri’s goal scoring overall (12 goals in 23 games) is a fluke, but it does seem to be on a pace to arrest a disturbing (for Devils fans) downward trend.  After three rather pedestrian years in goal scoring from 2012-2013 through 2014-2015 in which he had a pair of 14-goal seasons and one of ten goals, he hit the 30-goal mark in 2015-2016.  That was, and remains a career best.  In the following two seasons he dropped to 26 goals and then 24 (in only 62 games) last season.  His overall improvement this year comes with a caveat, though.  Through 23 games he is on a 43-goal pace per 82 games.  However, that goal scoring pace over his last 19 games is one of 22 goals per 82 games.  Which Palmieri takes over heading toward midseason will go a long way in determining if this club has any chance of climbing back into the playoff race.  Palmieri is 5-3-8, plus-1, in 15 career games against Washington.

Once upon a time, Cory Schneider was a prospect of whom great things were expected.  And over a six-year period ending with the 2015-2016 season he posted a .926 save percentage in 260 games played.  No goalie over that six-year period appearing in 50 or more games had a better cumulative save percentage.  But over the next two seasons, injury and illness, coupled with inconsistency, limited him to 100 total appearances and a save percentage of just .908.  That was mere prelude to what has been a disastrous start to this season.  He did not make his first appearance until October 30^th, the result of recuperating from a hip injury.  Since returning to action, he is 0-5-0, 4.28, .863, and the conversation has turned to whether he needs to find his game somewhere other than on the parent roster. 

Schneider’s troubles opened the way for Keith Kinkaid to take over at the position.  He might not be a long-term answer for the Devils, but he is at least treading water.  His 9-5-4 record is adequate, while his goals against average (2.72) and save percentage .912) are middle of the road in goalie rankings (22^nd in GAA and 21^st in save percentage among 41 goalies with at least 500 minutes played).  Those goals against and save percentage numbers are precisely what his career numbers are in those categories, giving the impression that in his sixth NHL season and with 129 career appearances, what one sees in him is what one gets.  He is a competent goalie, but not one around which a contender might be built, not unless the skaters are an uncommonly talented bunch (think of the recent vintages of the Pittsburgh Penguins).  Kinkaid is 3-3-0, 3.24, .882, with one shutout in six career appearances against the Caps, the shutout coming in the Devils’ 6-0 rout of the Caps earlier this season.

1.  More on Kinkaid.  If you are a fan of free hockey, he’s been your guy lately.  In three of his last four performances, the Devils went to overtime.  Caps fans might have particular reason to like this.  Kinkaid lost all three games.

2.  The Devils are one of three teams this season without a goal in overtime.  Montreal and St. Louis are the others (Montreal does have two Gimmick wins).  

3.  New Jersey has the second-worst winning percentage in one-goal games (.250/2-2-4).  Only St. Louis (.000/0-4-3) is worse.

4.  The Devils lose big, too.  Only Philadelphia has more losses by three or more goals (nine) in the Eastern Conference than New Jersey (seven).

5.  No club has fewer wins when scored upon first than New Jersey (one).  Only Los Angeles and San Jose hav a worse winning percentage when allowing the first goal (.071 and .111, respectively) than the Devils (.125).

1.  Only Minnesota has more wins when allowing the first goal of games (nine) than Washington (seven).

2.  The Caps do not get blown out often.  Only three times this season have the Caps lost a game by three or more goals.  Only three teams have fewer such losses – Calgary, Detroit, and Nashville (two apiece).

3.  Washington likes to apply more power on home ice.  The Caps lead the league in power play goals scored at home (15) and have the league’s third-best home power play (34.1 percent).

4.  Only eight times have the Caps out-shot opponents this season (5-2-1 record).  Not that it seems to matter much.  When outshot, the Caps have a similar record in 15 games (9-4-2).

5.  Washington has the fourth-best shooting percentage-plus-save percentage (PDO) at 5-on-5 in the league (1025).  Only the Colorado Avalanche (1027), New York Islanders (1033), and Toronto Maple Leafs (1035) are higher.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Marcus Johansson

In seven seasons as a Washington Capital, Marcus Johansson missed a total of 39 games.   Last year, in his first season with the New Jersey Devils, Johansson missed 53 games to an ankle injury and two separate concussions, the latter of which kept him out of the team’s last 35 regular season and first two playoff games.  He missed one game to illness and the game this past Monday, but he has otherwise appeared in 21 games (it is anticipated he could dress for Friday’s game in Washington).  He is looking to get some traction in terms of production with his new club.  In an abbreviated season and change, Johansson is only 8-14-22, minus-19, in 50 games.  What he has done with more frequency this season than in any previous season is shoot the puck.  He is averaging 1.86 shots on goal per game, a career high.  It has not done him much good, though, his shooting at a 7.7 percent rate challenging his career worst (7.5 percent in 2013-2014 with the Caps).  One thing to watch for from Johansson in this game is his ice presence.  While he has four points at home this season and four on the road, he is a plus-2 in Newark, but only a minus-10 in 11 road games played.  In four career games against his former club, Johansson is 1-3-4, even.

Washington: Chandler Stephenson

For some forwards, the development of the offensive part of their game is the last piece of their game to come together.  Some players are more physical at the start of their careers before their offensive games starts to emerge.  Think “Tom Wilson” as an example.  For others, they are diligent in the little things – checking, playing solid defense, using speed and skating to neutralize opponents – before their offensive games blossom.  Chandler Stephenson might be in this second group.  He gets a decent helping of ice time (averaging 13:11 per game) for a bottom-six forward and gets a regular turn killing penalties (1:58 per game, fourth among all Caps forwards).  However, his offense has not been as noticeable, and if anything, he is behind where he was last season.  

Recall that last season Stephenson was 6-12-18, plus-13 in 67 games in his rookie campaign.  He was an infrequent shooter (36 shots on goal in 67 games) but an efficient one (16.7 shooting percentage).  So far this season, he remains an infrequent shooter (15 shots on goal in 24 games, only three games with as many as two shots on goal, 12 with no shots on goal), but his efficiency has not kept up.  He has one goal on 15 shots (6.7 percent), and he has only two points in 19 games since recording his only goal of the season back on October 13^th against Toronto.  Stephenson doesn’t have to be a prolific scorer; he doesn’t need to score in double digits for the Caps to be successful.  Watching to see if that offensive part of his game emerges is something worth watching.  Stephenson is 0-1-1, even, in five career games against the Devils.

In the end…

This Devils team might be quite similar to the one that steamrolled the Caps in the second week of the season, but it is not performing at nearly that level over the last several weeks.  Since they opened the season with a four-game winning streak, their 5-10-4 record is worst in the league.  Needless to say, this is a situation of which the Caps should take advantage.   The Caps will be fighting the headwinds of injuries to a number of skaters – Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Brooks Orpik, Michal Kempny, Devante Smith-Pelly – but the Devils are in such a rut that the Caps have enough weapons on hand to deal them another blow.

Capitals 4 – Devils 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 24: Capitals at Islanders, November 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals complete their New York Dads Trip on Monday night when they head to Brooklyn and a contest with the New York Islanders at Barclays Center.  It is a game that has more than the usual importance that a divisional matchup of teams separated by only three points in the standings might have.  It will be the first time that the Caps and Islanders head coach Barry Trotz shared the same ice sheet since the Capitals, under Trotz’ direction, won the Stanley Cup in Las Vegas last June 7^th.  It will be the first time the Caps faced Trotz as an opposing coach since Trotz’ Nashville Predators beat the Caps in a Gimmick, 4-3, back on March 30, 2014.

The Islanders have shown themselves to be an inhospitable host, going 6-2-2 in ten home games so far this season.  They have done is largely by being stingy in allowing goals at home.  The 26 goals allowed in ten home games is the sixth-fewest in the league and third-fewest in the Eastern Conference.  What makes the goals allowed total a bit odd is the manner in which goalies have been deployed by Trotz.  The goalie assignments have largely split into the “home” goalie (Thomas Greiss) and the “road” goalie (Robin Lehner), despite the fact that Lehner has better home numbers than Greiss in fewer appearances. 

Greiss has eight starts in ten home games, but his 2.64 goals against average and .915 save percentage pale a bit next to his 5-2-1 win-loss record and rank in the middle of the pack among goalies in home performance (22^nd in goals against average and 23^rd in save percentage among goalies with at least 200 home minutes played).  His performances more recently have been more successful, though.  Seven of his last eight appearances have come at Barclays Center, and in those seven games Greiss has a record of 5-1-1, 2.45, .924, and one shutout.  On the other hand, Lehner has only three appearances on home ice this season and has not started a game at Barclays Center since October 24th, but he does have a 1-0-1, 2.36, .933 record on home ice.  Greiss is 2-1-1, 2.49, .926 in four career appearances against the Caps, while Lehner is 1-3-1, 2.60, .913 in five career games against the Caps.

If you had Anthony Beauvillier as the leading goal-getter on home ice for the Islanders through ten home games this season, go buy a lottery ticket.  There he sits, though, with five goals in ten games.  The 28^th overall pick of the 2015 entry draft is in his third season with the Islanders, and last year he posted his first career 20-goal season with 21 scores in 71 games.  Most of his home production so far this season came in a single game, a hat trick and four points in 7-5 win over the New York Rangers on November 15^th.  However, that game started a three game home goal streak that he will bring into this contest (5-1-6), the only home games in which he has points this season.  In seven career games against the Caps, Beauvillier is 0-1-1, even.

Another lesser known performer on home ice is Scott Mayfield, who leads all Islander defensemen in goals scored (three) and points (four) on home ice.  Since he was drafted in the second round by the Islanders in the 2011 entry draft, his progress has been slow but steady.  He spent parts of four seasons with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers in the NHL and parts of three getting a glimpse of the NHL before appearing in 47 games with the Isles last year.  It was a season in which he tied a career high in goals (two), and set career highs in assists (ten) and points (12).  This season, he has already set a new career high in goals, the three he has (all at home) being almost as many as the rest of the defense combined (four).  He also has seven assists, closing in on the career best he set last season.  Mayfield does not have a point in three career games against Washington

1.  The Islanders have the second lowest shots on goal per game (27.9) in the league.  Only the Anaheim Ducks have a lower average (27.0).

2.  Shorthanded goals do not figure to be a feature of this game.  The Islanders have only one shorthanded goal this season (as do the Caps), while only Vegas and Dallas have fewer (none).

3.  Only three teams have averaged more penalty minutes per game than the Islanders (10:40) – Vancouver (11:34), Boston (11:36), and Winnipeg (12:40).

4.  No team in the league has taken fewer faceoffs than New York so far this season (1,266).

5.  The Islanders have the fourth-worst shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (45.88) in the league.

1.  Dmitry Orlov has one of the more bizarre home-road splits.  In 12 home games, Orlov is 0-1-1, even, while in 11 road games he is 2-6-8, yet a minus-6.

2.  Matt Niskanen is also a minus-6 on the road. The Orlov-Niskanen defensive pair is the only one with minus numbers on the road this season.

3.  The Caps and the Winnipeg Jets are the only teams in the league with four players with ten or more power play points.

4.  It does not seem to matter much whether the Caps out-shoot or are out-shot by opponents.  Good thing, too.  Washington has a 8-4-2 record when out-shot by opponents, 5-2-1 when out-shooting them (they have one loss when the shots are even).

5.  The Caps are ranked seventh in both winning percentage when scoring first (.778/7-2-0) and when scored upon first (.429/6-5-3).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Mathew Barzal

In his first 22 games in his rookie season last year, Mathew Barzal was averaging a point a game (6-16-22) on his way to the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.  He almost on that pace through 22 games this season (20 points), but his three-goal total is half of what it was at this point last season.  His contributions do matter to the Islanders, who are 9-5-1 in the 15 games in which he registered a point, 3-3-1 in the seven games in which he was blanked on the score sheet.  The odd part of that split is that Barzal is 4-2-1 in seven home games in which he has at least one point, 2-0-1 in the three games he did not record a point. And, only twice in 10 home games has he been a “plus” player.  It gets even stranger when looking at his shots on goal.  In 12 games in which Barzal recorded at least two shots on goal, the Isles are 5-6-1.  They are 7-2-1 in those games in which he had one or no shots on goal.  His is an odd profile, indeed.  Barzal is 1-3-4, minus-2, in five career games against the Caps.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby has had an interesting and unusual start to the season in goal for the Caps.  Of his 16 appearances so far, 11 of them have been on home ice, where he thrives, going 6-3-1, 2.51, .922 with his only shutout of the season.  On the road, he has struggled to find his footing in a comparatively low number of appearances.  In just five appearances on the road so far, Holtby is 2-2-1, 3.62, .894.  It is not unlike his career home-road split (2.21/.925 at home, 2.68/.913 on the road), but it is more pronounced.  Perhaps the strangest part of Holtby’s road record to start the season is that the only instance in which he had a save percentage over .920 came in a relief role, when he stopped all 22 shots he faced in relief of Pheonix Copley in a 5-4 overtime win over the Montreal Canadiens in his most recent road appearance.  And while he has had a history of success with high shot volumes, that has not been the case on the road.  Three times he faced more than 30 shots on the road so far, and he is looking for his first win in that situation (0-2-1, 5.01, .870).  Holtby is 14-4-3, 2.46, .919 in 21 career appearances against the Islanders.

In the end…

It is hard to tell from game to game which Islander defense will show up on home ice.  It is a team that has held opponents under two goals three times in ten games with two shutouts.  On the other hand, they allowed opponents four or more goals three times, including two of their last three games at Barclays Center.  On the other side, the Caps have five goals scored in three of their last five road games and five or more in five of their 11 road games this season.  Even with the absences of Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie, the Caps are a formidable offensive team that is enjoying perhaps its best stretch of the season.

Capitals 5 – Islanders 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 8

Week 8 – eight points.  There was a nice symmetry for the Washington Capitals in the four games played against Original Six teams.  However, the number that mattered at week’s end was “one.”  When the clock chimed midnight on Saturday, the Capitals rode their four-win week to the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

Record: 4-0-0

When Week 8 started, the Capitals had not had so much as a single winning streak of three games this season.  When the week ended, the Caps had a five-game winning streak.  It is their longest winning streak since putting together a five-game streak late last season, in Games 73-77.  They have not had a longer streak since late in the 2016-2017 season when they had a six-game winning streak in Games 71-76.

The four wins had significance in their location as well.  The two wins on home ice, against the Chicago Blackhawks and the Detroit Red Wings, snapped the Caps’ first and only two-game losing streak in regulation time on home ice this season.  The two road wins, in Montreal against the Canadiens and in New York against the Rangers to start and finish the week, were the first consecutive road wins for the Caps this season on the road.

The four wins tied for the league lead for the week, and the Caps finished alone on top of the Metropolitan Division for the first time since October 4^th.

Offense: 4.25/game (season: 3.43/game, rank: 5th)

Productive and prolific. The Caps recorded 17 goals in four games, ten players lighting the lamp at least once in Week 8.  Four different players had multi-goal weeks, ranging from the entirely normal to the completely unexpected.  Alex Ovechkin led the club with four goals and finished the week with goals in four of his last five games.  He finished the week tied for third in the league in goals (17), two behind Patrik Laine and one behind Jeff Skinner.  Tom Wilson continues his hot start after his lengthy suspension to open the season.  Wilson had three goals in Week 8, recording one in each of the three games to end the week.  It is his longest goal game streak in his career to date.  Brett Connolly had a pair of goals, one each in Montreal and in New York to begin and end the week put to rest a seven-game streak without a goal coming into the week.

What might have been completely unexpected was the two-goal week by defenseman Michal Kempny.  Both came on home ice, one against his old club, the Chicago Blackhawks, and the other against the Detroit Red Wings.  They were the first goals he scored this season, breaking a 17-game streak without a goal to open the season and his last goal scored since his last regular season game last season against the New Jersey Devils.

The Caps had 16 of 19 skaters dressing in Week 8 record at least one point.  Ovechkin, Wilson, and John Carlson tied for the team lead with six apiece, all of Carlson’s coming on assists.  If there was one odd statistic on offense for the week it was in shots on goal.  It was strange enough that Alex Ovechkin did not lead the team in shots (his 12 shots on goal were second-highest), but what made it that much stranger was Nicklas Backstrom leading the team with 13 shots on goal.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 3.13/game, rank: T-19th)

It could have ended worse for the Caps in Week 8, based on the numbers on the defensive side of the ledger.  Washington held none of their four opponents under 30 shots on goal and averaged allowing more than 36 shots per game for the week (36.3).  The Caps allowed the Canadiens 44 shots in the 5-4 overtime win to open the week, the second time in two trips to Montreal this season that the Caps gave up 44 shots to the Habs. 

It was a bit, but not a lot better in 5-on-5 shot attempts.  The Caps were underwater in the first three games of the week before climbing over 50 percent against the Rangers (55.68 percent) to end the week.  The Caps were only 37.76 percent against the Blackhawks, but that result is tempered somewhat by the fact that the Caps never trailed in that game.  They scored two goals in the first seven minutes to put the Blackhawks in a hole, a more desperate team that increased their shot attempt volumes in an effort to get back into the game.

Goaltending: 2.46 / .931 (season: 2.93 / .908 / 1 SO)

Week 8 was one of those weeks in which one sees why one goalie is the number one netminder, and the other is the backup.  As to the latter, Pheonix Copley got a start in Montreal as the club wanted to give Braden Holtby one more game’s worth of relief after he missed a few games to an upper body injury.  That was the plan, anyway.  Copley lasted 21 minutes and change against the Canadiens, giving up four goals on 22 shots before Holtby took over with the Caps down, 4-2.  Holtby did what a relief goalie is asked to do in that situation, hold the fort and give his team a chance to come back.  He stopped all 22 shots he faced in 42 minutes, allowing the Caps to tie the game in regulation and win it in overtime.

Holtby was superb against Chicago and Detroit in the week’s home games, stopping 68 of 71 shots over the two games.  He gave way to Copley against the Rangers in the back half of a back-to-back set of games, and Copley was good enough, stopping 27 of 30 shots in the Caps’ 5-3 win to close the week.  Holtby’s .962 even strength save percentage was fourth-best in the league among all goalies facing at least 25 even strength shots on goal.

The most noteworthy goaltending numbers for the week were the first period shots on goal.  In four games, Holtby and Copley faced a total of 58 shots, stopping a combined 55 of them (a .948 save percentage).  It was in no small part due to their first period work that the Caps had a four-win week, the club suffering sluggish starts in each game.

Power Play: 2-for-10/20.0 percent (season: 27.8 percent, rank: 4th)

Week 8 started well, but it did not end well on the power play.  The Caps scored goals on two of their first three man advantages for the week but then drew a blank on their last seven power play chances.  At the team level, the Caps did not have a bad week in terms of power play productivity.  They did managed 17 shots on goal in 17:53 of power play time.  However, of that number, Alex Ovechkin had only two shots on goal, scoring on one of them.  Chicago and New York were able to hold him without a power play shot on goal.

The power play finished at 20 percent or better for the seventh time in eight weeks, but the voltage has dropped a bit.  After six weeks the power play was smoking along at 32.7 percent, but over the last two weeks it is 3-for-20, the 15.0 percent level of efficiency ranking only 23^rd in the league over that span.

If there was a silver lining in the power play numbers for the week, it could be found in the other goal.  Andre Burakovsky had that one, his power play goal against Chicago being his first power play goal and first power play point of the season.  It was his first power play goal and first power play point since he recorded a man advantage goal in a 3-2 loss to the Florida Panthers last February 22^nd.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-12 / 91.7 percent (season: 75.9 percent, rank: 24th)

It was a fine week for the Caps on the penalty kill.  They allowed a power play goal to Montreal on the second half of a double-minor roughing penalty on Matt Niskanen to open the penalty killing for the week, and then they pitched a shutout the rest of the way.

The Caps did manage to do a fair job in suppressing shots, especially in the last three games of the week when they allowed only 11 power play shots on goal in 14:12 of shorthanded ice time.  As it turned out, Braden Holtby was the only netminder for the week to face more than ten power play shots on goal to turn away all the shots he faced.

Faceoffs: 114-for-230 / 49.6 percent (season: 48.8 percent, rank: 21st)

It was a better week in the circle than the overall numbers might suggest.  Four of the five Caps taking at least ten draws for the week finished over 50 percent, Nicklas Backstrom being the only one of that group finishing under 50 percent.  It was mostly the “second man” group, those who generally take draws when one of the principals is tossed out, that came up short, winning only six of 20 draws for the week. 

On the other hand, the numbers were puffed up some by winning 38 of 65 neutral zone faceoffs (58.5 percent).  In the ends, things were not as positive.  The Caps won only 30 of 64 draws in the offensive zone (46.9 percent) and only 46 of 101 defensive zone faceoffs (45.5 percent).  That offensive-defensive zone differential of 37 more draws in the defensive end suggested that for much of the week the ice was tilted toward the Caps’ end of the ice. 

Goals by Period:

Week 8 was one in which the Caps finished games strong.  They posted third period goals in all four games, six goals in all.  On the other side, they allowed only two third period strikes, one to Chicago and one to the Rangers. 

The starts of games were a mixed bag, though.  Washington allowed only three first period goals in Week 8, but all of them were first goals in those games.  Allowing the first goal in three of four games, as the Caps did in Week 8, is not a long term recipe for success.

As has been the case for much of the season, the Caps dominated the middle periods of games, but not as much as they have been over the first seven weeks.  They did manage a plus-1 goal differential (six scored, five allowed) to improve their season differential in the second period to plus-11.  It matters, since the Caps have a net minus differential in the other two regulation periods – minus-1 in the first periods of games and minus-4 in the third periods of games.

Year over Year:

The four-win week allowed this year’s edition of the Caps to pull away from last year’s at a comparable point of the season.  At the highest level of performance, this year’s club has been able to grind out points in more games (16 of 23 versus 13 of 23 last season).  Drilling down through the numbers, the scoring defense is unchanged, but the scoring offense is up 21.5 percent from this point last year (plus-14 in goals).

Special teams have improved, going from a minus-5 goal differential last season (exclusive of shorthanded goals) to even this season, but that latter differential suggests work needs to be done on the penalty kill, which is once more under 80 percent.

In other respects the Caps are continuing trends established over the first seven weeks.  They are still under 50 percent on 5-on-5 shot attempts, but they continue to be ahead of last year’s pace on hits and blocked shots.  And, they are still almost one penalty taken per game and almost three penalty minutes per game behind last year’s penalty pace.

In the end…

Week 8 was the Caps first four-win week of the season, doubling the highest weekly win total over the first seven weeks (two wins, accomplished three times).  Since going winless in Week 5, the Caps are 8-3-0 over the last three weeks, suggesting that they are perhaps settling into a higher level of play than they exhibited in the first five weeks. 

In a perverse sense, going into a week of light work in Week 9 – two games – might not be the best of situations, but those two games against the New York Islanders and the New Jersey Devils do provide the challenge and the opportunity to send a message to divisional rivals.  Still, Week 8 will be hard to top.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (3-0-0, 1.11, .968)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (4-2-6, plus-5, 1 PPG, 12 shots on goal, 26 shot attempts, tied Mario Lemieux for seventh place all-time in power play goals)
• Third Star: Michal Kempny (2-2-4, plus-6, 2 game-winning goals, 20:53 average ice time)