Something got me to wondering...

Ever since I read this blog entry over on Japers' Rink.

Why? Why is it that there is so little movement late in the season?

Leave it to the great sage, Barry Melrose, to help us figure it out.

The reason..."three-point games."

Let's look at some of the things JP pointed out...

"With 28 days left in the 2006-07 season, the New York Islanders - the eventual eighth seed in the East - were in seventh place in the conference, and the top-eight in the conference on that day (March 11) all made the playoffs."

That's the "what." What about the "why?" Here is something to think about...in those last 28 days, the Islanders won two games in a shootout, two extra points they would not have received in the "pre-shootout days." Toronto, which finished one thin point behind the Islanders, won three games in extra time during that span of days, but all were won in the overtime session, not the shootout (overtime was a part of the standings points landscape, pre-lockout). If the Islanders don't get the extra points from the shootout -- if those games remained ties -- they don't keep their spot.

Now, of course, it is not accurate to take just this slice of games out of an entire season of shootout-eligible play, and the absence of a shootout might change individual game dynamics. But the point here is how teams are able to hang onto their positions late in the year. And, in those last 28 days, the shootout worked to the advantage of the Islanders to hold on to what they had.

With 28 days left in the 2005-06 season, the Tampa Basement Lightning - the eventual eighth seed in the East - were in sixth place in the conference, and seven of the top eight in the conference on that day (March 21) made the playoffs. The exception? The Thrashers, who fell from eight, allowing the Habs to make the post-season. And how far did Montreal come? From one point behind Atlanta with 28 days left.

In 2005-2006, the Lightning won two games that went to shootout in those last four weeks. Montreal had no such wins in its last 28 days of play, while Atlanta -- the team that lost ground here -- also had no such wins. The Lightning bested Atlanta by two points in that season, and it was precisely a two win margin (the Lighting winning two more games, the Thrashers with two extra OT/SO losses) that provided the margin.

In the West, eventual eighth seed Edmonton was in ninth place on March 21 and six of the top eight teams in the conference on that day made the playoffs, the only exceptions being Vancouver and Los Angeles who got replaced by San Jose and Edmonton. With 28 days left in the season, the Oilers had the same number of points as L.A. and the Sharks were only one point behind that pair and two behind the Canucks.

Edmonton squeaked into the eighth spot three points ahead of Vancouver. However, unlike this year's version of the Oilers, the shootout was not kind -- they won only one such outcome in the season's last 28 days. San Jose, which was the other winner in the sweepstakes, recorded no such wins. The losers -- Vancouver and Los Angeles -- recorded one shootout win apiece. In this instance, the shootout seemed not to be a factor (no explanation is perfect, or even necessarily correct).

We don't pretend that ours is deep analysis; it merely serves to raise a question...does the shootout, presumably a device to enhance the excitement of individual games, actually serve to prevent the kind of jockeying and drafting that might otherwise take place late in the year because teams "above the line" scratch out the extra point here or there? Once teams have sorted themselves out in the first 70 games or so, does the shootout -- and the extra point it offers in a gimmick -- then serve to cement that sorting for the last dozen games?

The Washington Capitals' Nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy -- Quintin Laing

"...given to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey."

That is the citation that accompanies the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy. For those of you not familiar with the manner in which the trophy came to be named for Masterton, here is the Wikipedia entry on the unfortunate events...

"On January 13, 1968, four minutes into a game against the Oakland Seals at the Met Center, Masterton was carrying the puck into the Seals' zone. Shortly after completing a pass to teammate Wayne Connelly, he was checked by Oakland's Larry
Cahan and Ron Harris and fell backwards onto the ice head-first…Before he lost consciousness, a teammate who rushed to his aid heard Masterton murmur, "Never again. Never again."

Masterton sustained a massive brain hemorrhage…The injury was so severe that doctors were unable to perform surgery, and Masterton died two days later without ever regaining consciousness."

If ever anything good can come out of such tragedy, there were two things in the aftermath of Masterton's death worth noting. First, it intensified the debate over mandatory use of helmets. This rule was implemented in the 1979-1980 season. It seems reasonable to say that it has prevented many injuries and perhaps a number of deaths.

The second item is the trophy, which stands as acknowledgment of a player's exhibiting those character traits that are perhaps most associated with the sport -- perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication.

The Washington Capitals have nominated Quintin Laing for the 2008 award, and it would be hard to find anyone who exemplifies perserverance and dedication more than Laing. Fans see his seeming disregard for his well-being as he flings himself in front of 100-mile an hour pucks. They see the fact that he's worked himself up through the minors to get an opportunity on an NHL sheet of ice. But what fans probably don't know about is the journey, told by Laing himself in the fine article by Mike Vogel...

"It wasn't easy. First two years in the East Coast [League] and then six in the AHL. You've just got to love the game and love what you do and I do. I just kept playing hard and hoping for a chance. I got it this year, thanks to [Caps coach] Bruce Boudreau]. The last 40 games have been just a dream every day. Every day has been just like a living dream.”

With the trophy, there is a grant from the Professional Hockey Writers Association that is awarded annually to the Bill Masterton Scholarship Fund, based in Bloomington, Minn., in the name of the Masterton Trophy winner. Quintin Laing would be a fitting honoree in the tradition of the award, a worthy addition to the list of great NHLers who have been recipients.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“shhhhhhhh…be vewy vewy quiet.we’re hunting thwashuhs…”

Oh, sorry…shouldn’t you be hunting wabbits…uh, rabbits?

“Wabbits don’t pway hockey…they can’t get the hewwmets on their heads…hehehehehe.”

I see your point. Have you had much luck bagging thwashuhs…uh, thrashers?

“Not weawwy. They’re pwetty much dead awweddy.”

Yeah, they’ve had a tough time lately.

Atlanta is ending the season very much in the way they started it, and that is not a good thing for the Thrashers. They started the season 0-6-0, upon which they relieved Bob Hartley of his coaching duties. Well, now they are in the middle of a 2-6-4 run that has driven them to the bottom – almost – of the Eastern Conference. This morning the Thrashers are in 14th place and gasping for air.

Just as the 0-6-0 start was not a result of accident, so the misfortune of these last dozen games has not been the product of chance:

Record: 2-6-4
Goals for/against: 29/46
Power play: 10/49 (20.4%)
Penalty killing: 44/54 (81.5%)
Shots for/against-per game: 25.6/36.6
Record in three-or-more-goal margin games: 0-4
Record in extra-time games: 1-4

This just isn’t a very good hockey team at the moment. They’ve won one game in regulation since February 2nd (that was last night). They are a defensive disaster. Here is an indicator…they have no players – none – who have played at least 20 games this year and are on the plus side of the ledger. Even Colby Armstrong, who came over from Pittsburgh in the Marian Hossa deal on deadline day, has managed a -4 in eight games with the Thrashers.

If you’re wondering about the big guys and their performance during this drought…

Ilya Kovalchuk: 8-5-13, +3
Mark Recchi: 2-7-9, -4
Eric Perrin: 2-4-6, -6
Slava Kozlov: 1-4-5, -5
Bobby Holik: 2-4-6, -3

Tobias Enstrom, who was making a push to get some rookie of the year consideration, has fallen on some hard times of his own on the blue line. He has two assists and is a -8 over the last dozen games.

But when Atlanta plays the Caps, you can’t discount the fact that some of those same Thrashers have saved their best efforts for those games…

Kovalchuk: 35 games, 20-24-44, +15
Recchi: 88 games, 46-58-104, +22
Armstrong: 8 games, 3-5-8, -2
Holik: 84 games, 22-24-46, +10

Over the last dozen games, that 46 goals allowed sticks out. Can’t necessarily blame that one on Marian Hossa’s departure (maybe Pascal Dupuis was the key all along?). Seven times they have allowed more than three goals, five times they have allowed at least five goals. Part of that is the fact that Atlanta goaltenders have been the targets in an arcade game – the Thrashers are allowing 11 more shots a game over the last dozen contests than they’ve registered on offense – and it’s showing up in the goaltending statistics.

Kari Lehtonen, who was the goaltender of record in last night’s 6-4 win over Calgary, is 1-5-3, 3.88, .893 in ten appearances over the last dozen games. He’s 8-3-2, 2.56, .919 in 13 career games against the Caps. If he doesn’t get the call in the back half of the back-to-back, Johan Hedberg is 1-1-1 in four appearances over the last dozen games, 3.37, .902. He is 6-2 (with two ties), 2.66, .911 in 10 lifetime appearances against the Caps…it sure seems like more, doesn’t it?

Looking at the Thrashers, it’s a case of a damaged but dangerous club. Losing Hossa robbed them of a lot of offense. But this is not, and hasn’t been a very good defensive team all year (tied for last in goals against-per-game, 27th in penalty killing). They are, however, 4-2 against the Caps this year, with two of the wins coming in extra time. So, while the Thrashers have fallen on hard times, that probably won’t be much to bank on for the Caps if the red-white-and-blue don’t bring their A-game.

The Caps need to get off fast, then stand on the Thrashers’ throats. Last night Atlanta came from three goals down to beat Calgary in a game that had no meaning, save pride, for the Thrashers. If the Caps do not tend to business, they might take this – if not to their @#$%ing graves, as Herb Brooks might put it -- to the off season as the one in the stretch run they let slip away.

We don’t think they will, though (do we ever?)…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 2

It could happen...

Philadelphia has 11 games left. They have a five-point lead on the Caps for eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

The Flyers have had 11 game stretches that have not gone well...

November 28 - December 22: 3-7-1

The Flyers beat Carolina (3-1) in the first game of this 11-game stretch and pounded Pittsburgh (8-2). Their losses were to some pretty good teams -- the only losses to non-top-eight teams were to Phoenix and to Buffalo (twice, once in a shootout).

February 6 - February 28: 1-8-2

This stretch started with a 4-3 loss to the Capitals and launched the Flyers on a ten-game winless streak. They ended the slide in the 11th game of this run, a 4-3 shootout win over Buffalo. Again, they lost to some pretty good teams here. The losses to non-top-eight teams were to Washington, the Islanders, Tampa Bay, and Florida (in overtime).

February 21 - March 12 (current): 5-3-3

While their most recent 11 games suggests a reversal of fortune from those two bad stretches, they are only 2-2-1 in their last five, all against non-top-eight teams. They've lost to Bufflo and Toronto (twice, once in overtime).

Their last 11 is quite a challenge (as if the Caps' isn't), their records against those teams this season in parentheses:

@Boston (1-1-1)
@Pittsburgh (4-1-0)
Atlanta (3-0-0)
NY Rangers (1-3-2)
NY Islanders (5-1-0)
@NY Rangers (1-3-2)
@New Jersey (1-5-0)
@NY Islanders (5-1-0)
@Pittsburgh (4-1-0)
New Jersey (1-5-0)
Pittsburgh (4-1-0)

The Flyers are 4-2-2 since losing Mike Richards to injury, but in those eight games, they've played only two top-eight teams -- the reeling Senators and the Rangers.

And, speaking of injury, Richards remains out with a hamstring injury, Joffrey Lupul just returned on March 12th after sustaining a high-ankle sprain, and Daniel Briere has been dealing with shoulder problems. Simon Gagne is out for the year with a concussion.

Of course, none of this matters if the Capitals don't win, and in the end that is the only thing the Caps hold in their hands -- the ability to put pressure on a team like the Flyers by just winning.

Him again?

#23 to 300

With last night's win -- his 300th as an NHL goaltender -- Olaf Kolzig joins some select company...

You'll note that 10 of the 23 goaltenders on this list are in the Hall of Fame. Of the six yet active goaltenders, four -- Brodeur, Belfour (currently playing in Europe), Joseph, and Hasek -- are virtual locks for induction when eligible. Chris Osgood has been a member of two Stanley Cup winners and has a Jennings Trophy on his resume. He hs six 30-win seasons, but no 40-win campaigns. Kolzig has taken his team to a Stanley Cup final and has a Vezina Trophy on his mantle. He has five 30-win seasons and a 40-win year.

He could pass Richter and Broda in wins this year, with an outside shot at passing Smith to crack the top-20 (the question being one of how many starts he gets in the last 11 games). If he returns for the 2008-2009 season, he could perhaps pass Burke and Lumley.

No matter...for a guy who waited more than five years after being drafted for his first win (January 27, 1995 -- against the Islanders) and nine years to become the number one goalie for the Caps, for a guy who ranks fourth in career wins among goalies having played for a single team, he has had a remarkable career characterized by skill and fierce determination. He is an icon in Washington sports --for his work both on and off the ice -- deserving of all the respect and good wishes that come with his achievement.

Congratulations, Olie, on #300...and here's to lots more before you hang up your mask.

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Flames 2

Daddy?

“yes, son…”

I thought we were going to see a hockey game tonight.

“We did…the Caps and the Flames”

That was hockey?...all they did was whack each other’s sticks, take penalties, and skate around the middle of the ice.

“Well, son…that’s called ‘Keenan hockey.’”

It’s boring.

“Yes, son, it is.”

Boring or not – and the Caps did their level best to lift the excitement level on “Back to the ‘90’s” night – the good guys skated off with a 3-2 win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive and give Olaf Kolzig his 300^th career win, all as a member of the Capitals. So bore away, Flames, bore away.

On the other hand, Alex Ovechkin – the subject of his own personal camera following him around – had two goals, including the game-winner, 11 shots, more than 24 minutes of ice time…we’re guessing fans got their money’s worth following him around.

The story, though, was Kolzig. He looked very rusty in the first ten minutes, allowing rebounds on shots he would normally swallow up or steer out of trouble. But once he had his legs under him, he was superb. Calgary managed goals only on 5-on-3 power plays (ok, technically the second one just expired when the Flames scored). True, the Flames were essentially a one-line club (Jarome Iginla, Kristian Huselius, and Daymond Langkow combined for 11 of the Flames’ 26 shots, had both goals, and had all three points tallied by forwards). But Kolzig was up to the task when called upon, especially in that first period, when Calgary was launching shots from everywhere (17 in all in the first).

There were some pretty funky numbers in this one, as well as good news elsewhere…

Calgary registered 12 blocked shots in the first period – the Caps, none. Thing is, though, the Flames finished with 17, the Caps 15.

John Erskine skated eight shifts for the night – three of them ended in penalties…he had two of them. Erskine skated only one shift in the second period, taking a penalty.

The minutes Erskine relinquished were picked up by Mike Green, who finished with 30:58. His even strength time alone (18:53) was more than the total time of 12 skaters. His 11:33 of power play time was more than the total for four other skaters.

If the Caps come up short in the stretch drive, it won’t be because Ovechkin failed to deliver. In six March games, he is now 8-6-14, +7. This was his 11^th multi-goal game of the year and his 27^th multi-point game.

Kolzig is now 6-3-2, 2.18, .923 since February 1^st. Anyone think he’s been the problem?

Speaking of problem, how many chances did the Caps have tonight that they didn’t bury…Alexander Semin had Kiprusoff down and an open net and couldn’t get a backhand past the fallen goalie. Matt Bradley sent a puck behind Kiprusoff and through the crease. Ditto Tomas Fleischmann (who had his two chances, which coach Bruce Boudreau says he gets every game…he really needs to bury these). Eric Fehr had a chance from in close that Kiprusoff snatched with his glove. Ditto Ovechkin, who was left to gaze into the rafters.

In the points watch…Ovechkin needs four goals for 60, three points for 100, and he has two home games coming up. There seems to be a convergence taking place – the Caps remaining playoff chances might hinge on his hitting both this weekend.

Sergei Fedorov had perhaps his best game as a Cap. He didn’t register anything on the score sheet, but he was more dominant in the offensive zone than he has been in earlier games, and he was very good in the circle (winning 12 of 21 draws).

Perhaps it was a bad night for them, but it was painful to watch any other group than Calgary’s first line try to do anything with the puck. It is not an especially adept passing team, at least it wasn’t on this night. They looked a lot like the Caps of the early season – that is not a compliment.

This was only the sixth one-goal loss in regulation for Calgary in 34 one-goal games.

Ninth straight 17,000+ home crowd.

The Caps caught a break tonight, as both teams in front of them – Buffalo and Philadelphia – lost in regulation. They kept pace with Carolina, which won in Chicago this evening. The Caps remain seven points behind Carolina with one game in hand and two games remaining against the Hurricanes. They need all six of those points to have any chance at all of winning the Southeast.

Five points out…11 games to play. Philly still has three games against the Penguins, two against the Devils, two against the Rangers. Buffalo still has Ottawa twice, Montreal twice, and Carolina. Of course, the Caps still have that six-game road trip coming.

This could yet be an interesting finish.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flames, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Things have come to a pretty pass,
Our chances are growing flat,
For you like this and the other
While I go for this and that.
Goodness knows what the end will be;
Oh, I don't know where I'm at...
It looks as if we two will never be one,
Something must be done.

You say CAL-garry and I say Cal-guh-ree,
You say OH-fense and I say OFF-ense;
CAL-garry, Cal-guh-ree, OH-fense, OFF-ense,
Time for tonight’s face off.
You like the bisket and I like the basket,
You like CAL-garry and I like Cal-guh-ree;
Bisket, basket, CAL-garry, Cal-guh-ree!
Time for tonight’s faceoff!
But oh! If after tonight’s face off,
Then we must part.
And oh! If we ever part,
Then that might break my heart!
So, if you like CAL-garry and I like Cal-guh-ree,
I'll say CAL-garry and give up Cal-guh-ree.
For we know we need each other,
So we better call the calling off.
Time for tonight’s face off!


What is it with the Caps facing hot teams lately? Tonight, it’s Calgary’s turn to test the men in red, and the Flames are tuning up for the playoffs. Leaders of the Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference, Calgary comes to DC on a nice run in their last ten games:

Record (last ten games): 7-1-2
Goals for/against: 25/16
Power play: 6/49 (12.2 percent)
Penalty killing: 45/53 (84.9 percent)
Shorthanded goals: 4
Record in one-goal games: 4-0-2

Calgary has a simple formula these days…”Iggy and Kipper, and things’ll be chipper.” Jarome Iginla – the player, who if he played in the East, might be considered the best in the game – has had a hand in almost half of the Flames’ goals in the last ten games (6-6-12, +7). What Alex Ovechkin brings to the Caps – scoring, hitting, and a flair for the dramatic – Iginla brings to the Flames. The tale of the tape:

Goals: Ovechkin 54/Iginla 41
Assists: Iginla 41/Ovechkin 41
Points: Ovechkin 95/Iginla 82
Game-winning goals: Iginla 9/Ovechkin 9
Power play goals: Ovechkin 18/Iginla 14
Power play assists: Ovechkin 14/Iginla 13
Power play scoring: Ovechkin 32/Iginla 27
Hits: Ovechkin 190/Iginla 83
Fights: Iginla 5/Ovechkin 0
Iginla vs. Washington: 13 games, 4-7-11, -4
Ovechkin vs. Calgary: 1 game, 0-2-2, +1

One plays the right side, one the left. This is one of those games-within-a-game that makes for entertaining watching, “OvechKam” or no OvechKam.

Iginla hasn’t quite been alone in his contributions in this ten-game run:

Kristian Huselius: 1-6-7, +4 (4-3-7, -8 in 17 career games against the Caps)

Daymond Langkow: 2-5-7, +6 (8-10-18, +3 in 28 games against the Caps)

Alex Tanguay: 5-1-6, +5 in seven games, three missed due to a neck injury (2-2-4, -1 in 8 games against the Caps)

Then there is the guy who will likely be sent out to defend Ovechkin at every opportunity – Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf is as complete a defenseman there is in the game. He is ranked among the defenseman leaders in several league categories:

Points: 49 (T-6th)
Goals: 14 (T-4th)
Assists: 35 (10th)
PIMs: 163 (1st)
Power play goals: 9 (T-1st)
Power play assists: 19 (T-11th)
Power play points: 28 (5th)
Game-winning goals: 3 (T-5th)
Hits: 172 (6th)
Time-on-ice: 26:32 (5th)

Again…if this guy is in the East, he’s a Norris finalist, if he isn’t already. He will be a perennial in this trophy category.

But on to Kipper. Miikka Kiprusoff started slowly this year, allowing three or more goals in 14 of his first 17 games, going 6-8-3, 3.19, .879 in the process. However, in this ten game run, he is 5-1-2 in eight appearances, 1.62, .953.

Calgary comes to DC healthy (only David Moss is reported injured), rested (only two games since March 4th), and motivated (tied with Colorado in points for the Northwest Division lead and the Western Conference’s three-seed). They are also a superb road team, with an 18-13-1 record away from Pengrowth Saddledome.

For a club reeling after two difficult, self-inflicted losses, fighting for a playoff spot, this is as stiff a test as one could muster. Calgary is a hard team to play against, and they have enough skill to make a team not paying attention pay dearly. More often than not, though, Calgary will play things close – it is what they do best. While they have a .500 record in two goal games (8-8) and three-or-more-goal games (10-10), they dominate one-goal games (18-5-10).

Whether this is a one-goal or a five-goal game, a 60-minute game or a shootout, the Caps have to be on the long end of it. It’s really just that simple at this point. And that’s why…

Caps 3 – Flames 2

Masterton Nominees have a Capital look

James Mirtle reports that 16 teams have announed their nominees for the Masterton Trophy. According to NHL.com:

The Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy is an annual award under the trusteeship of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association and is given to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey. The winner is selected in a poll of all chapters of the PHWA at the end of the regular season.

As Mirtle reports, the nominees are:

Boston - Glen Metropolit
Buffalo - Paul Gaustad
Calgary - Owen Nolan
Carolina - Glen Wesley
Colorado - Andrew Brunette
Detroit - Chris Chelios
New Jersey - Colin White
N.Y. Islanders - Brendan Witt
Ottawa - Luke Richardson
Philadelphia - Jim Dowd
Pittsburgh - Ty Conklin
St. Louis - Manny Legace
Toronto - Jason Blake
Vancouver - Trevor Linden

As you can see (in bold) four of the 16 nominees to date have spent time in our part of the world. Congratulations to all the nominees announced thus far.

The only standings you'll ever need

As we head into the final stretch, here it is, boiled down...

Place yer bets, place yer bets...

All-in-all, not a bad ending...after eight overtimes

From the "are they still playing?" file...

They played a hockey game in Michigan last Saturday night...and almost into Sunday morning. It was the Michigan high school Division I championship, played by Orchard Lake St. Mary's and Marquette at Compuware Arena in Plymouth Township, MI. 109 minutes of hockey, 64 of which were played in overtime, ended at 11:45 p.m. Saturday night. There were 91 saves, 53 of them on the overtime sessions. Needless to say, St. Mary's goaltender Ryan Morley-Stockton and Marquette netminder Jon Nezich were the stars of the game.

Shane Halaas, a forward for St. Mary's, was no stranger to the events that unfolded. Last November, he played in the longest football game in state history in the finals (five overtimes).

The Detroit Free Press has articles on the marathon that you can find here and here. They also have a photo gallery you can see here.

Meanwhile, the Detroit News has a look here.

Randy Allen, the Michigan High School Athletic Association assistant director in charge of hockey, in an interview with ESPN Radio, indicated that one team was awarded the trophy, the other the medals, and each of the schools will receive the other shortly to complete the well-deserved acknowledgments.

We'll leave it to young Mr. Halaas for the final word...

"Everyone will get a ring and everyone is happy. After eight overtimes, there is no loser. It ended the right way."

They're all champs...



photo: Ankur Dholakia/The Detroit News

Ovechkin named first star of the week

From the NHL...

Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin, New Jersey Devils goaltender Martin Brodeur and San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton have been named the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending March 9.

FIRST STAR -- ALEX OVECHKIN, LW, WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Ovechkin reached the 50-goal mark for the second time in his three NHL seasons Mar. 3, scoring a hat trick and adding two assists in Washington's 10-2 victory over the Boston Bruins. He reached the milestone in his team's 67th game of the season, the fastest since the Pittsburgh Penguins' Jaromir Jagr and Mario Lemieux (59th game) and the Buffalo Sabres' Alexander Mogilny (63rd game) in 1995-96. Ovechkin later scored a pair of goals in a 3-1 victory over the Sabres Mar. 5, tallied one assist in a 2-1 loss to the Bruins Mar. 8 and finished the week with two assists in a 4-2 loss to the Penguins Mar. 9. Ovechkin leads the NHL scoring race with 95 points (54-41--95) in 70 games.

Attendance Watch

A graphical look at it after 35 games...

The points represent averages for the preceding five games, the line representing the low point (record-wise) of the season.

Every year, it seems there is a team...

...you know the one...

The one that no one wants to play if they get into the playoffs...

The one that is closing the season with a rush...

The one that has a lot of promise and can do some damage if they get in...

The one whose future looks bright, even if their present is frustrating.

The Caps -- who are by no means out of it, yet (we won't be changing that threat warning graphic for some games yet) -- seem to be that team this year. They're on the wrong side of the playoff window, despite a fine record since Thanksgiving and a host of young guys that have carried the club for most of that stretch.

Last year, there was a similar team...lots of kids in the prospect pool...a decent, if flawed parent roster...a club that closed with a rush (9-4-0 in their last 13 games to finish two points out of the playoffs).

That team is Montreal, owners of the number-two seed in the East this morning.

It helps to take the long view of things...

The origins of "The Curse"

There is no other team in the National Hockey League that has inflicted more torment on the Capitals than the Pittsburgh Penguins.

We think we now know why. It is the revenge of the hockey gods for smiting one of their own.

A little history is in order. When the Capitals entered the league in 1974, they were bad. No, not just bad, "bad for the ages" bad. They lost to everyone, including the Penguins. From the inaugural 1974-75 season through 1981-82, the Caps' record against Pittsburgh in the regular season was 16-24-6...not really all that bad considering how bad the Caps were in those early years.

Then when the Caps achieved some competitive success, they took care of business against the Penguins...from 1982-83 through 1986-87, they were 24-7-2. But it was in the last game of that 1986-87 series that the seeds of the curse were planted.

It was March 20, 1987. Caps fans of a certain age will know that date and its significance right away. It was a Friday night in Washington, and the Caps came into the contest with the Penguins struggling with a 30-32-9 record, desperately trying to qualify for the playoffs. Then, there was the third fight in this video...



Bob Gould one-punched Mario Lemieux, who had to be led off the ice draped over the shoulders of two teammates, into a concussion. The Caps won that game, 4-3, and would not lose again in the regular season, finishing 8-0-1 to make the playoffs.

That, my friends, is what is referred to as a "Pyrrhic" victory. Since that knockout, the Caps are 33-57-8 in the regular season against the Penguins and have won a season series against Pittsburgh only three times in 20 seasons. There is also the not-so-small matter of the 1-6 record in playoff series in which the Caps have a 16-26 record in games played.

It all started with a punch.

Bob?...I love ya, and it was certainly a sight to see the big guy dropped like a sack of poutine, but maybe...just maybe...it's time to say you're sorry.

A no-point afternoon: Penguins 4 - Caps 2

It stinks.

Their fans came and cheered, their team played and won, their fans stayed and celebrated.

It stinks.

It’s supposed to stink. If it didn’t, then why would we bother showing up for these games? If we didn’t care, we’d just say, “ah, #@$& it…I’ll stay home and watch the inevitable on TV.”

The Caps played 59:30 of a great game yesterday, but found a way to let the last 30 seconds get away from them in dropping a 4-2 result to the Pittsburgh Penguins at Verizon Center.

Nicklas Backstom scored an own-goal with 27.8 seconds left to join the ranks of Capitals who have done some odd things in this series against the Penguins – almost all of them bad over the last 20 years. For those of you who keep score of such things, the regular season series stands (with overtime/shootout losses counted as losses), 73-88-16. Unfortunately, 2-10-0 of that is in the last three years.

If you looked at the numbers – and only the numbers – you’d think the Caps won this game, oh…5-2:

Shots: 38-26, Caps
Total shots taken: 63-51, Caps
Giveaways: Penguins 11, Caps 9
Takeaways: Caps 11, Penguins 5
Faceoffs: Caps 39, Penguins 22 (63.9 percent)

But in the end, it was the same old story…the Penguins finished (or had things finished for them), the Caps didn’t.

Alex Ovechkin had three tap-ins on his stick in the first period alone and twice had the puck jump over his stick (the third he mis-hit). Alexander Semin had several opportunities to walk down the slot and fire and ended up hitting Marc-Andre Fleury’s logo (his goal was scored on a pretty stick move in close to Fleury’s right that appeared to fool the goaltender). Backstrom, who other than the miscue at the end had a superb game, had four shots of his own that didn’t find twine. The guys you would have wanted to take shots for the Caps – Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Viktor Kozlov, Mike Green, Eric Fehr – had 28 of the 38 shots. Cristobal Huet was sharp; the defense was taking care of business by moving the puck smartly out of trouble and away from the Penguins’ big guns.

All of which meant that the Penguins had the Caps right where they wanted them.

The Caps could convert only one of those 28 shots from prime scorers, although the Brooks Laich goal (his 17^th) was a redirection goal off a shot from Semin.

That the Caps could be so unsuccessful with spending so much time in the Pittsburgh end on this day and launching so many shots from such high-probability scoring area argues for Fleury’s being named number-one star. He certainly was ours.

That Evgeni Malkin was named first star, Ovechkin second star, and Crosby third star seemed to us equal cases of laziness in looking at the game and theater (since they were the marquee players in the game promotions). We would have had Fleury as the first star, Jordan Staal as the second star (he played a whale of an all-around game), and Malkin as the third star.

For the Caps, this loss is not crushing, except perhaps to the spirit. It capped an odd and most unsatisfying weekend, one in which both games – to Boston and Pittsburgh – were lost in the last five minutes under somewhat strange circumstances (a rash of penalties in one, an own-goal in the other)...the first time in 48 games the Caps lost consecutive games in regulation. Had both games been won, and this team should believe it should have won both games, the Caps would be poised to embark on their last dozen games only two points behind Philadelphia for eighth place and three behind Carolina for the Southeast lead with a game in hand. As it is, the Caps are six points behind the Flyers and seven behind the Hurricanes with those dozen games left to play.

The Caps do not have to win out to make the playoffs, but it’s getting close to that level of desperation. They probably need no fewer than 18 points in their last dozen games to qualify, and that with a six-game road trip looming that starts next Tuesday in Nashville.

Bruce Boudreau said after the game that, "That was officially heartbreaking." He was likely speaking of Backstrom’s well-intentioned error at the end. But he might have been speaking of the larger game, and of the still larger realization that for the spirited comeback the Caps have made from the depths of the conference back in late November, it might not be enough.

It stinks.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, March 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And here we are...the showdown we’ve been waiting for. No, not Ovechkin vs. Crosby...Pittsburgh vs. the English language.

Verizon Center might be inundated with Allegheny Virus this afternoon – otherwise known as Penguin fans – and it might be helpful for Caps fans to understand their language in order to console them after the Penguins fall. So, yer ol’ Uncle Peerless is providing as a public service a Pittsburgh-to-English dictionary for yinz t’use (see, we’re falling into the trap already) in speaking “Pittsburghese.”*

For example...if someone breathes on Sidney Crosby, Pens fans will have a “canipshun,” which in English is “to have a fit or get upset.” Let’s hope Pens fans have lots of canipshuns this afternoon.

And if the Capitals can get a big day out of Alexander Ovechkin – maybe a cupple-tree goals or so (that would be “two or three,” in English), then perhaps Penguin fans will have to wait “a whole nuther” year for Evgeni Malkin or Sidney Crosby to challenge for the scoring title. Of course, Pens fans will argue “That ain'da way I see it.”

If Mike Green can add to his goal total with a back-door pinch or an end-to-end weave, you might see a Pens fan turn to his buddy (who missed the play while wiping nacho cheese off his chin), pointing to the big screen and lamenting, “look, look…yagottaseediss!”

Should the Caps get some breaks from the men in the striped shirts, you might hear Pens fans “skwillin’” (“squealing” to you and me) about how the Pens can’t get a break.

If Donald Brashear and George Laraque go toe to toe, you might pay attention to which one “jukes” first (flinches).

But today the Caps are trying to take another step (“anudder,” in Pittsburghese) in climbing from the depths of the conference to a playoff spot.

As for the Penguins, they seem almost mortal these days. After a 7-2-2 run that got them to the Ottawa-Montreal-New Jersey level of the Eastern Conference, they’ve stubbed their collective toe in their last five:

Record: 2-3-0
Goals for/against: 11/17
Power play: 1/19 (5.3 percent)
Penalty killing: 14/18 (77.8 percent)

Part of that is the cooling off of Evgeni Malkin. After the center went 8-16-24 over the first ten games of February, he’s been 3-4-7, even, over his last eight games. Ditto Ty Conklin. After going 6-1-3, 2.27, .931, to open February, Conklin is 0-2-0 in three appearances since, 4.46, .862. That could mean an appearance by Marc-Andre Fleury. In four appearances since returning from a high-ankle sprain, he is 2-1-0, 2.30, .933. He’s never lost to Washington, going 6-0-0, 1.97, .938 in six appearances. Of course, the Penguins coming to town means an appearance by The Chosen One…Sidney Crosby is returning from a high-ankle sprain of his own, and in two games since coming back is 0-2-2, +1. Against the Caps, he is 5-12-17, +5, in 10 games. One player the Caps will not face today is newly-acquired Marian Hossa, who is still out with a sprained knee.

The Caps are 2-7-2 against the Penguins since the lockout, having been outscored 46-32 in those games. Unlike what was the case in most of those games, however, the Caps bring a deeper offense to the battle. It isn’t necessarily “stop Ovechkin, stop the Caps” heading into this one. While Ovechkin is still the key – 6-9-15, +9 in his last eight games – the Caps have other weapons, some in some unfamiliar places…Brooks Laich with three goals in his last three games…Nicklas Backstrom being 2-6-8, +9 in his last five games…Viktor Kozlov is 2-3-5, +9 in his last five games and leads the team at +18…Tom Poti has six assists in his last five games and is +5.

For the Caps, things are now in the desperation stage…with last night’s action, the Caps are seven points behind Carolina (with two games in hand) and six behind Philadelphia, with 13 games to play. Today’s game – against an old rival in a soldout arena – will have “playoff air” written all over it. Of course, we all can count on Pens fans to act like “lunch-heads” (idiots) when they get to the big city, too. So be tolerant when the “yinzers” (Pittsburghers) find their day ruint (ruined) by a Caps win, just tell them, “sees ya in da playoffs” ...

Caps 5 – Penguins 4

...but you already figgurred dat already.

* Thanks to pittsburghese.com

A no-point afternoon...Bruins 2 - Caps 1

It would be tempting to say that this afternoon’s 2-1 loss to the Boston Bruins was a product of shoddy officiating (there was that) and a lack of discipline on the part of one of the players the Caps look to for leadership in times like this (there was that, too).

But this was a team loss, in every sense of the word. Let’s start with that third period, the one in which the Bruins scored two late goals to win...

The Caps had four shots on goal in the third period. That is a deceptive number...they didn’t have so much as that amount of pressure on the Bruins. Here is the official tally of those four shots in the third period...

2:07: Ovechkin, Backhand, Defensive Zone, 153 ft.
2:46: Bradley, Slap, Neutral Zone, 110 ft.
5:14: Fedorov, Slap, Defensive Zone, 134 ft.
11:41: Fedorov, Wrist, Defensive Zone, 144 ft.

That’s it. No shots on goal from the offensive zone...none.

Then there were the misses on the chances they did have...Brooks Laich failing to cash in on a shorthanded rush with five minutes gone in the second...Tomas Flesichmann in alone on Bruin goalie Alex Auld off a feed from Alexander Semin ringing the puck off the pipe.

The Caps played just enough to put themselves in a position to have the game settled on the basis of a series of brutal calls by the officials. And in that, there is a silver lining. This is a loss, but one that need not be crushing. The Caps were, despite the Bruins coming out full of piss and vinegar, and with a grudge to settle, the better team for just about the entire game. Cristobal Huet had a superb game in goal, which sets up an interesting choice for coach Bruce Boudreau to make for tomorrow’s game against Pittsburgh.

There was Jeff Schultz leading the team with five hits...Quintin Laing with a like number of blocked shots...Laich leading the team with four shots on goal.

But if the Caps didn’t play quite well enough – and they didn’t – the officiating was, to be charitable, off its game. Let’s start with the first period...a five minute and game misconduct for kneeing for Matt Cooke. First, let’s get this out of the way...a major penalty for kneeing requires that an additional game misconduct be applied (Rule 50.5). The question is, why a major penalty in that instance? The infraction itself is defined at Rule 50.1 as follows:

Kneeing is the act of a player or goalkeeper leading with his knee and in some cases extending his leg outwards to make contact with his opponent.

Well, we’ve looked at the video of that and wonder, “where was the “leading with his knee” part? That there would be a question about this in our mind (which questions the very call itself) begs the next question, how could the referee be sure that the violation merited a major penalty? Rule 50.3 permits – but does not require – a major penalty to be called, that the referee may, “at his discretion, may assess a major penalty, based on the severity of the infraction, to a player or goalkeeper guilty of kneeing an opponent.” Sorry, but to put a team at a manpower disadvantage for five full minutes seems to require a higher threshold than what was the case here. As it turned out, Bobby Allen – the victim of this heinous crime – came back later in the period and ended up skating another 2:17 (of his 5:44 of total ice time) after suffering this tragedy 4:06 into the second period. The refs got snookered.

Referees Rob Martell and Chris Rooney trying to figure out who makes the next call.

And that made the end-game a little harder to understand. The Brashear calls looked to be on the far side of the line, meriting penalties. The rest?...it is hard to understand the calls on John Erskine and Tom Poti in the context of what the referees let go on. In a league where legend has it that things even up in the end, every call that had a choice about it went in Boston’s favor. That happens, although it would be tough to finish one point out of the playoffs with this kind of game having been called. But again, in the end, the Caps had chances they didn’t convert earlier in the game, and one could take some measure of solace in that they were the better team for most of this contest. That should give them a measure of confidence moving forward.

This might be a speed bump on the Caps’ march to the playoffs, or – if the club lets it get to them – could be the start of a slump the team simply can’t afford. We’ve seen enough of the Caps in the last couple of weeks to think it’s the former, that they will be ready to go when the puck drops tomorrow at Verizon Center. And this edgy kind of loss will be a memory.

Reputation and Results -- The Caps vs. the Rest of the League

There are a couple of sentences in this morning's article in the Washington Times about Bruce Boudreau that got me to thinking...just how bad have the Caps done outside the Southeast Division under Boudreau?

This is what Corey Masisak wrote...

"...what Boudreau has accomplished in a short span with the Caps is remarkable. This career minor leaguer has transformed them from the worst team in the NHL into a legitimate contender, albeit in a weak Southeast Division."

Well, you know what?...For the reputation the Southeast has as being "weak," it hasn't shown up in the Caps' performance against non-Southeast teams.

When the Caps changed coaches in November, they were 6-14-1. This morning, they are 32-28-8...26-14-7 under Boudreau. They are also 7-5-2 against Southeast teams since Boudreau took over, which -- if our arithmetic is correct -- leaves them 19-9-5 against teams not in the Southeast under Boudreau.

And here is your fun fact for today...

The Caps have at least a .500 record (based on points earned of those available) against every division in the NHL this year but one...

ATL: 8-7-4 (20 points/19 games)
NE: 10-8-0 (20/18)
CEN: 1-1-1 (3/3)
NW: 3-1-0 (6/4)
PAC: 0-0-0 (0/0)
SE: 10-11-3 (23/24)

They certainly will have their chances to improve upon their Southeast record with eight games yet to be played, including the last seven of the season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, March 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Revenge Saturday…for the Boston Bruins (how often in the last few years could we have said that of any opponent?). The Bruins will be looking to reclaim some of their collective manhood after being beaten and beat up in the Verizon Center school yard, 10-2, last Monday. We chronicled Boston’s recent performance here, a reminder that this can be – and still is – a dangerous team. We’ve got the Monday result here, and the week that was Boston goaltending here, for those of you looking to relive, as it were, a fun night and to revel in the misfortune of others.

It’s a big weekend for the Caps, with the Bruins still five points up on the boys and tomorrow’s opponent – the Pittsburgh Penguins – with the second best record in the East (by virtue of having more wins than Montreal). But the Caps have been equal to the task lately, going 4-1-0 in their last five. Since NBC will be covering the Penguins visit tomorrow, we decided to sit down with the guys covering the game to get their take on the Caps, their chances today, and their shot at the playoffs…

Mike Emrick…you’ve been at this for 27 years and have seen it all. You get to see a great like Martin Brodeur every night covering the Devils. But have you ever seen a player with the skill, toughness, and flair for the dramatic as Alex Ovechkin.

ME: “I was watching Ovechkin the other night – the child of Mikail…a former professional soccer player, and Tatiana…who won Olympic gold for the Soviet Union in Montreal in 1976 and in Moscow in 1980 – and he was skating in on Tim Thomas, a native of Flint, Michigan, and a former Catamount at the University of Vermont, where he was a three-time all-ECAC – ECAC stands for ‘Eastern College Athletic Conference' – selection and finished his career atop the Catamount record book in games, with 140, wins with 81, and minutes played with 3,950, and…what was the question again?”

Pierre McGuire…you’ve done it all in hockey – played, coached, served in the front office, written about it, provided commentary on it. Do you think the Caps have a chance to overtake the teams in front of them for eighth place or to catch Carolina for the Southeast Division title and a top-three seed?

PMcG: “Down here from inside the glass between the benches, I have to say you can’t count the Caps out, but if they only had Sidney Crosby, they’d never lose a game…”

You mean adding Crosby to this roster?

PMcG: “No, just Crosby…if it was just The Kid and coach Bruce Boudreau, they’d never lose; they’d be spending the whole game in the other team’s end of the rink.”

Mike Milbury…the Caps added Sergei Fedorov, Cristobal Huet, and Matt Cooke at the deadline. They gave up Matt Pettinger, a prospect, and a couple of draft picks. Good moves?

MM: “Good, but they could have been so much better. First thing I would have done is trade Varlamov and Semin for a couple of forwards only I would have thought would work out…”

You mean, like when you traded Olli Jokinen and Roberto Luongo to Florida for Mark Parrish and Oleg Kvasha?

MM: “Exactly…then I’d have moved that Neuvirth kid for a forward who won’t play another three season’s worth of games for the rest of his career and a low draft pick…”

Like when you traded Tommy Salo for Mats Lindgren and an 8^th round pick?

MM: “Now those would have been trades…”

That’d be one word for them…Ed Olczyk, you were a hometown #3 overall pick of the Blackhawks in 1984, played in both Toronto and New York, coached Sidney Crosby. You’re somewhat acquainted with the pressures of the limelight and being the hometown icon. What do you make of the situation with the Caps’ local icon – Olaf Kolzig?

EO: “….hmmmmm [goofy smile]”

Uh, Ed?...

EO: “oh, sorry…I was just thinking about Sidney…he’s dre-e-e-e-amy.”

Guys, you have any advice for the Caps today against the Bruins?

ME: “When the Caps take the ice at TD Banknorth Garden today, an arena, by the way, in the West End neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts that is named after its sponsor, TD Banknorth. TD Banknorth – perhaps ironically – is a 100 percent-owned subsidiary of Toronto-Dominion Bank, although it traces is own history to the Portland Savings Bank, which was established in 1852, which coincidentally is the year in which Chris Chelios, as legend has it, played his first organized hockey game. What was the question again?”

PMcG: "Well, the B’s will be buzzing today, no doubt. When you’re wearing the black and gold – the same colors that Sidney Crosby wears, by the way – you can count on a maximum effort, unless they come out flat, in which case they won’t.”

Won’t what?

PMcG: "…what?”

Won’t what…you said they won’t. Won’t what?

PMcG: “that’s right.”

Whatever…Eddie, can Alex Ovechkin reprise his three-goal, five-point night from last Monday?...

Ed?....ED?!...put the picture of Sidney down for a minute, okay?

EO: “…sorry.”

Mike, how about the Caps…think the new guys can make a difference today?

MM: “Without an Oleg Kvasha or a Mats Lindgren-type player out there, it’ll be tough. I think they struggle today…”

Well, if Mike says it, it has to be…well, “true” isn’t the word we’d have been searching for…

Caps 4 – Bruins 2.