Anatomy of a Programming Decision

On February 21, 2010, the United States and Canada will take the ice in each team’s last game in the Group A preliminary round in men's ice hockey at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

The National Broadcasting Company, once the official television home of major league baseball, the Rose Bowl, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, the NBA, and NASCAR, has decided that the ultimate game in the preliminary round of men’s ice hockey involving Team USA and Team Canada will have to be moved to MSNBC to make room for…

Ice Dancing.

In the words of Lewis Black, “I will repeat that.” The National Broadcasting Company, once the official television home of major league baseball, the Rose Bowl, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, the NBA, and NASCAR, has decided that the ultimate game in the preliminary round of men’s ice hockey involving Team USA and Team Canada will have to be moved to MSNBC to make room for…

Ice Dancing.

And not even the medal performances for ice dancing, either. It will be a telecast of the “original dance” portion of the competition, the second of three components (“compulsory” and “free” dance being the others, for those following along).

Hockey isn’t even being pre-empted for figure “skating” or speed “skating,” but rather their little brother of the species. The one you wouldn’t pick if you were choosing sides for a game. We wondered just how such a thing could happen, how such a network with a proud history of big time sports coverage could come to this. Well, we found out about the corporate meeting to be held to talk about how the Games would be covered, and we scribbled some notes down as we were hiding in a closet just off the conference room…

NBC Muckety Muck: “OK, ladies and gentlemen, we have a schedule to finish up here, so get away from the free booze for five minutes and let’s finish this.”

Other executives: -grumble grumble grumble-

MM: “OK, we’re up to February 21st. We have a choice to make here… we have Ice Dancing.”

Effete Network Snob: “Oh, yes, we have to have this as our feature event. The Olympics are about striving and art and…”

Cigar-Chomping Old, Old Timer: “sequins”

Loud, Obnoxious, Uncommonly Demonstrative Guy: “SLAH-lom… we need more SLAH-lom”

ENS: “You always say that.”

LOUD Guy: “’cuz it’s always TRUE.”

COOT: “Yeah, we can get the NASCAR crowd…you know, the ones who only watch for the crashes?”

MM: “Brilliant!...Slalom it is. But that won’t fill up our entire time slot there. We still need to fill the slot.”

Village Idiot: “Maybe we could have Jay do a half hour there.”

MM: “Get that guy outta here…”

ENS: “You can’t do better than Ice Dancing… it’s like ‘Dancing With the Stars,’ only, well… colder.”

COOT: “On a different network, bub…”

ENS: “One that’s doing better than ours, in case you haven’t noticed”

COOT: “Cable access channels in Peoria are doing better than us.”

LOUD Guy: “That’s ‘cuz we need more SLAH-lom…”

MM: “OK, that’s enough. We’re not getting anywhere with this. We have ice dancing and hockey… let’s run down the pros and cons…”

COOT: “Hockey will bring in the fight crowd…”

ENS: “No one watches that barbarism anymore…”

LOUD Guy: “Yeah, and besides, nobody FIGHTS in Olympic hockey.”

ENS: “But ice dancing is wholesome, uplifting entertainment.”

LOUD Guy: “Yeah, but it’s not SPORT!”

COOT: “Got a point there…it’s like American Idol on skates.”

ENS: “Different network…”

LOUD Guy: “ANOTHER network doing better than us...”

MM: "Look folks, we need to fill this time slot, and we’re not going to do it with slalom and ads for ‘The Biggest Loser’”

LOUD Guy: “I LOVE that show!”

ENS: “You and six other people in America…”

MM: “OK, let’s go around the room one last time…”

ENS: “Ice dancing”

COOT: “Hockey”

LOUD Guy: “MORE SLAH-lom!”

MM: “This is the toughest decision I've ever had to make... but I get paid 1.2 million dollars to make these kind of decisions...so here it is…

…ice dancing. I’ve always hated that Bettman guy.”

Other execs: “OK, can we go back to the free booze NOW?!”

Blogstronauts!

Verizon Center has been home to its share of fans who have displayed unique approaches to getting the fans involved in Caps games. We’ve had horns and cowbells. We’ve had booming voices and rave lights. This year, we saw the debut of “Capstronaut.” And Capstronaut got me thinking about…

Bloggers.

Rewind back to the 1960’s. Well, back to 1959, to be precise. A new government agency – the National Aeronautics and Space Administration – was charged with putting a man into space. And to that end they administered a lengthy selection process to select seven “astronauts” to be the first wave of pioneers to leave the earth wearing the red, white, and blue on the sleeve of their spacesuits.

As the “Original Seven” became the names associated with the Mercury manned space program, NASA had to recruit men to serve in the next phase of manned space flight, and hence, “The Next Nine” were born in 1962. They would be followed by “The Fourteen” in 1963, selected primarily to serve the lunar missions that would come later that decade.

You can almost see that sort of “generational” effect growing up around the Capitals blogging community. We started our own scribbles back in July 2005, and (he said with all humility) you might think of that “era” of Caps blogging as the Mercury program era. There were a few blogs out there – the pioneers like Off Wing Opinion (with blogs dating back to 2002), On Frozen Blog, and Japers Rink (think of them as the Alan Shepard, Gordon Cooper, and John Glenn of the Mercury phase, while we might be more the “Scott Carpenter”).

But quite a community has grown up to fill Caps fans’ growing need for information – numbers, features, in-game reports, previews, recaps, pictures, interviews, videos, even translations (given the European influence on the roster). We had more blogs take up the “mission,” so to speak – Puckhead’s Thoughts, A View from the Cheap Seats, Homer McFanboy, and others in 2005-2007 (at least I can find archived entries going back that far)…

Then another wave, the Capitals Kremlin, Capitals News Network, Musings of a Hockey Mom, and others in 2008. And more have grown up as the months and years pass.

Like those early pioneers in NASA, some of those early bloggers went on to do other things and find their voice in other places. Some joined the SB Nation community, others the Bloguin community, others left blogging to pursue other paths. But on this morning, when we’re cooped up and looking out on the woods behind us with snow in the air, giving us the chance to read all that we have to pick from in the Caps blog list, we were just thinking of how this has unfolded so quickly over the past five years.

Oh, and you might wonder why we haven’t mentioned the Blogger in Chief here. Well, we were thinking about that, too. Ted Leonsis predates all of us, I guess, in a way similar to those astronaut classes we mentioned. Seems that before there was a NASA, before there was a “Mercury” program, and before there were the “Original Seven,” there was a group of men chosen in 1957, called the “Man in Space Soonest” Group. While all of them were distinguished test pilots in the American military, it was left to one of that group to distinguish himself in the field of space flight –

Neil Armstrong. You might have heard of him.


(We apologize if your blog was not mentioned here. No disrespect was intended, and we recognize that all who make up this community of Caps fans sharing their observations of the team comprise probably the most comprehensive and most sophisticated community of its type in the NHL)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Canadiens, February 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their fun ride on the road this week for three games heading into the Olympic break, the first stop being in Montreal to face the Canadiens at Bell Centre. The Caps begin the week as the top team in the Southeast Division, the top team in the Eastern Conference, the top team in the National Hockey League, and the top rated NHL team in several hockey publications and media…

“Y’know, if you have some computer geek workin’ fer ya, there wouldn’t be any need for any o’ that playoff nonsense. You could just go to the champeenship game like they do in real man sports like college football.”

And you are…

“Bobby… Bobby Peegsken.”

You sound like a football guy.

“Sure am… I am the Eggseckitive Dy-rector of the NC-Two-A Division I Football Bowl Subdivision Office of Information.”

In other words, you’re the BCS BS guy.

“Why do folks always say that?”

So, you think we should just dispense with the playoffs and go right to a “SCCS?”

“A Stanley Cup Championship Series, yeah… Think about it. None of that pesky travel. No waiting until June to get a champ…”

We already wait until June to get a college football champ.

“Funny… but anyway, the Caps wouldn’t have to worry about playing the Penguins in a playoff round. They could just go right to the championship game against the Sharks.”

And how do you folks figure these things out, anyway?

“OK, here’s how it works…

The top two teams in the final SCCS Standings shall play in the NHL Championship Series.

The champions of the Northeast, Atlantic, Central, Northwest, and Pacific Divisions will have automatic berths in one of the participating Stanley “Bowls” – get it?...Stanley ‘Bowls?’

The champion of the Southeast Conference gets an automatic berth in an SCCS ‘bowl’ game if either: a) Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final SCCS Standings, or, b) such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final SCCS Standings and its ranking in the final SCCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the SCCS bowls.

No more than one such team from the Southeast Division shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from the Southeast satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final SCCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.

Notre Dame will have an automatic berth if it is in the top eight of the final SCCS Standings.”

But Notre Dame is an NCAA team.

“And your point is?... As I was saying, if any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a division with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final SCCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same division qualifies for the NHL championship series.

If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a division with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same division qualifies for the national championship series.

Got that?”

The Caps are a Southeast Division team you know... does that make them the Boise State of this arrangement?

"well..."

I think we’ll stick with actually playing the games. And speaking of games, tonight the Caps return to Bell Centre for the last time this season (unless these teams meet in a playoff series). In the only previous appearance there this season – that being the first game after Thanksgiving – the Caps blew a two-goal lead, fell behind, then tied things up in regulation on a goal by Eric Fehr before Nicklas Backstrom gave the Caps an extra standings point with a goal in the Gimmick to seal a 4-3 win.

That loss dropped the Canadiens to 12-12-2 at the time. In the intervening two months and two weeks, things haven’t gotten a lot better, as the Habs come into this one with a 28-26-6 record overall and are hanging onto a top-eight sport for dear life, one point ahead of ninth-place Boston. Montreal simply hasn’t been able to get any traction lately. The Canadiens dropped a more conventional 4-2 decision to the Capitals on January 5th, and since that loss they are 7-5-3 and have neither won more than two in a row, nor lost more than three in a row in that span. For the season, their numbers look like this…



In those last 15 games Montreal has been predictably mediocre in goals scored for and against (37 for, 38 against), and consistent with their season performance on special teams (12-for-49 on the power play – 24.5%; 38-for-46 on the penalty kill – 82.6%). They’ve had trouble breaking out on offense – only three games with more than four goals scored. By the same token, they haven’t allowed a lot in the way of big scores, either – only three times in regulation allowing more than three goals.

No, the Canadien formula this year, and in this 15-game stretch, has been goaltending and special teams. The Habs come into this game with the second-ranked power play in the league (Washington being first). It certainly has been essential to success for Montreal – they are 16-9-5 in games where they score at least one power play goal, 12-17-1 when they do not.

As for that goaltending, you would have to think that Jaroslav Halak has earned the “number one” title. Since the Caps win against Montreal on January 5th, Halak is 6-3-2, 2.15, .936, and two shutouts. In those 11 appearances he allowed more than three goals only once (six in a 6-0 loss to the Rangers on January 17th). He has not, however, faced the Caps in any of the previous three meetings this season. He is 3-2-0, 2.60, .905 against the Caps over his career.

The guy who did get three starts against the Caps this season – Carey Price – has had only four appearances since losing that 4-2 decision to the Caps. He is 1-2-1 in those games, 3.23, .893. In his three starts against the Caps this season, Price is 1-1-1, 2.95, .910. He is 1-1-3, 3.32, .896 in five career decisions against the Caps.

As for the skaters, Montreal has been quite literally “decimated,” and then some. Andrei Kostitsyn, Paul Mara, Mike Cammalleri, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Benoit Pouliot represent almost 40 percent of Montreal’s goal-scoring production for the season (59 of 149 goals). Perhaps more ominous for the Canadiens, they represent more than 42 percent of the power play goals the team has scored this year (19 of 45 goals) and 12 of the 23 game-winners. All five players are on injured reserve.

The absences place a heavier burden on leading scorer Tomas Plekanec. He has been somewhat uneven over the past 15 games since these teams last met. While he is 5-7-12 in the 15 games, he hasn’t pieced together any substantial streak of games with points, three being his longest in this stretch. He did, however, have a three-point effort (1-2-3) against the Penguins last Saturday in a 5-3 win. The problem Plekanec faces is hinted at in his numbers for the season. He is the Canadiens’ leading scorer (15-43-58), but 24 of those points (3-21-24) have come on the power play. With four of the top six power-play goal scorers on the shelf for Montreal, who is there for Plekanec to dish to on the man advantage? In three games against the Caps this year he is 2-1-3 and is 8-9-17 in 19 career games against Washington.

If Plekanec has been primarily a distributor, especially on the power play, then the goal-scoring burden falls more to Brian Gionta, who is now the Canadiens’ top goal-scorer taking the ice. Since Gionta returned from a broken foot in late December, he is 8-8-16 in 20 games. Half of those markers are power play goals. He faced the Caps only once so far this season, and in 24 career games is 7-10-17 against Washington.

On defense, Bergeron’s absence will be felt keenly on the power play, where he skated 2:46 a game in ice time (of his 14:45 total average). Paul Mara was getting almost 19 minutes a game but was having a hard time at even strength (minus-16 in 42 games). The core of the defense – Roman Hamrlik, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill, and Josh Gorges will have the difficult task of trying to hold back the Caps’ offense. Markov – a defenseman of considerable offensive talent (averaging 54 points a year since the lockout) – has had trouble getting going in that regard since returning to the lineup from ankle surgery. He had two goals in his first game back and three in his first three, but he hasn’t had one since in 21 games. He has been limited to six assists in his last 15 games since skating against the Caps on January 5th. He is also minus-5 over that span.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Josh Gorges

Gorges is the Canadiens’ ice time leader for the defense on the penalty kill (3:16/game) and he is skating more than 21 minutes a game overall. He is going to be a big piece of the puzzle in keeping the Caps’ offense off the scoreboard. He hasn’t put up much in the way of points lately (none in the 15 games since the teams met last), but he is a plus-4 in his last nine games.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

The last time these teams met happened to be Ovechkin’s first as captain for the Capitals. Since then Ovechkin is 16-20-36, plus-23 in 17 games. Over an 82-game season at that pace, those numbers work out to 77-96-175, plus-111. However, he has not had particularly extraordinary results at Bell Centre. In nine career games there he is 3-5-8, minus-4 (he is 1-1-2 in his lone game there this season).

Keys:

1. Stay out of the box. The Caps have been shorthanded 65 times in their current streak (4.64/game). Montreal is 7-3-0 when getting five or more power play opportunities in a game. It should be noted that ten such occurrences in 60 games speaks to an inability to draw penalties, too. Montreal is dead last in the NHL in power play opportunities.

2. Put ‘em in the box. The Caps have had 55 power play opportunities in their streak (3.93/game). They are 22-6-5 in games in which they get at least four power play opportunities. Perhaps it is here we need to mention that Montreal has allowed the sixth most power play opportunities in the league so far this season.

3. Break on through to the other side. That’s a song title from the debut album of The Doors, but it could be the slogan for the week for the Caps as they have three road games before the Olympic break. It is a time for bearing down and taking care of the remaining business before the players head their separate ways. Montreal is a difficult place to play. It is made more so by the circumstances of a team coming in during the midst of a long winning streak and facing a home team bent on ending that run. No need to add to the mix by losing focus.

In the end, this is a good test for the Caps. The Canadiens are a depleted group, but they remain dangerous on their power play, and their penalty killers are efficient (if on the ice too much). They also have the sort of goaltending that can steal a game. Pressure – if you measure that in shots on goal – does not seem to be a factor here. Six of Halak’s losses have come when he faced fewer than 30 shots, for example. The key here is to play smart. Limit the Canadiens’ power play opportunities, and make their penalty killers take the ice often. That, combined with the Caps substantial edge in 5-on-5 play, is the way through to a win.

Caps 4 – Canadiens 2

Death of a Narrative

"The Capitals win games by sheer tour de force, overpowering their opponents with offense and, more often than not, hoping their defense and goaltending is just good enough to keep the other team from scoring five goals."

Ladies and Gentlemen, the early leader in the “Strangest Statements Made About a Hockey Team” for 2010. This one is courtesy of Ken Campbell, of “The Hockey News.”

This is merely the latest in a continuing narrative about the Capitals, that they are the 2000’s reincarnation of the 1930’s “Gashouse Gang” of major league baseball. Like those 1930’s St. Louis Cardinals squads, these Caps are little more (so the narrative goes) than a fun-loving, devil-may-care bunch who plays with wild abandon… and no discipline. The only difference seems to be that the Caps have their uniforms laundered regularly (the name “Gashouse Gang” stems from the foul odor of the unwashed uniforms the players preferred that called to mind the plants that manufactured gas for lighting and heating of the period).

Extend the narrative, and the Caps are too undisciplined, too immature, too offense-oriented, insufficiently hard-working to ever realize their dream of a Stanley Cup.

The trouble with narratives such as this is that what often happens is if a thing is spoken often enough and long enough, it takes on the character of truth. What it doesn’t do – and what it doesn’t do in this case – is take on the substance of truth. And here is why…

The Caps are a prodigious, prolific, and precocious offensive team. For that there is no debate. They average 3.90 goals per game through 59 games this year. This might not sound like a lot when you compare it to the offensive powerhouses of the 1980’s, but consider that that 3.90 goals-per game the Caps are on a pace to score is more goals per game than any team since the 1995-1996 Pittsburgh Penguins, which averaged 4.41 goals-per-game in that season. But even here the Caps’ unfolding season might be more impressive. In that 1995-1996 season the Penguins’ output was 10.8 percent higher than that of the second-highest scoring team, the Colorado Avalanche (3.98 goals/game). The Caps 0.60 goals-per-game lead over the San Jose Sharks is an 18.2 percent gap in offensive output.

While impressive, the offensive production of the Caps overshadows what is becoming a very solid season at the other end of the ice.

This morning finds the Caps in 13th place in the NHL in goals-against average (2.70/game). Among the 16 “top-eight” teams of each conference, this is not especially impressive – the Caps rank 11th among those 16 teams, 5th in the Eastern Conference. But it is a figure that is…

-- better than that of the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins (2.90)
-- better than that of the New York Rangers, who employ a three-time Vezina finalist at goaltender (2.71)
-- better than teams such as the Florida Panthers (2.76) or the Minnesota Wild (2.86) that employ more defense-oriented systems.

We are not going to argue that the Caps are the New Jersey Devils, who regularly reside in the low 2’s in goals allowed-per-game. But to hint – or to state outright – that the Caps are either incapable of playing or ignorant to the need for good defense is simply wrong.

In fact, the season cleaves rather nicely at the Thanksgiving point of the season. Up to that point the Caps played 25 games. Here is how their defense looked at that point…

Record: 14-5-6
Goals against/game: 2.84
Penalty killing: 76/97 (78.4%)
Shots against/game: 30.3

Since then the Caps have played 34 games, and here is how those numbers shake out…

Record: 27-7-0
Goals against/game: 2.41
Penalty killing: 112/139 (80.6%)
Shots against/game: 31.7

Shaving almost half a goal a game off your numbers in almost half a season’s worth of games is not a streak, it is not an anomaly. In fact it is rather amazing given that the Caps have done it with their number one goalie (or “co-number one” if you prefer) Semyon Varlamov having played in only three of those 34 games, none of them after December 7th (he had two shutouts in four games before going out with injuries).

But let’s delve further into that statement by Campbell, specifically with respect to this “hope” that “their defense and goaltending is just good enough to keep the other team from scoring five goals.” First, let’s recognize that comment as engaging in just a touch of hyperbole. Five goals is a lot, even for an allegedly defense-challenged team such as the Caps. But four isn’t. In 25 games before Thanksgiving the Caps allowed four or more goals a whopping ten times. By comparison, the Devils allowed that many three times in 22 games before Thanksgiving.

But in 34 games since Thanksgiving, the Caps have allowed four or more goals in a game only six times. You might be interested to know that the Devils have allowed that many or more on nine occasions in 36 games since Thanksgiving.

Let’s flip that around. Before Thanksgiving the Caps allowed two or fewer goals in a game ten times, which frankly is rather respectable (the Devils did it 14 times in 22 games). Since Thanksgiving the Caps have turned the trick 21 times in 34 games (the Devils have done it 16 times in 36 games).

Then there is the discrete…

-- Alex Ovechkin, seen in some quarters as something of a “125-foot” player who is inconsistent at best and a loafer at worst in his own end, has not had consecutive “minus” games this season (in fact has only ten minus games this year and only six in 32 games since Thanksgiving, during which he is plus-30).

-- Mike Green is seen as lackadaisical with the puck at best, a turnover machine at worst. So far this year, though, he has a total of 52 giveaways in 54 games. That would rank him in a tie for tenth for most giveaways by defensemen in the NHL. But it would be fewer than Chris Phillips, fewer than Brian Rafalski. And, if you look at the top-30 (or “bottom-30” if you are so inclined) defensemen in giveaways, Green averages more ice time than 24 of the other 29. His goals-against/on-ice-per-60 minutes is better than the likes of Canadian Olympians Dan Boyle and Scott Niedermayer. Green won’t win the mythical “Langway” Award for top defensive defenseman in the NHL, but neither is he the liability he has been assumed to be.

-- Nicklas Backstrom can’t win faceoffs… or so the story goes. Well, Backstrom is in his third year in the NHL and it bears noting that while he is not yet a David Steckel in the circle, he has improved each year (46.3 percent in his rookie year, 48.7 percent last year, 49.3 percent so far this year). Sidney Crosby improved in this facet of the game in each of his first three seasons, too.

-- Alexander Semin is too inconsistent, too immature a player to be counted upon to deliver in his own end when need be. Well, Semin is also a plus-48 in his last 112 games. Compare that to Alex Ovechkin being +49 in his last 130 games… or Henrik Zetterberg being plus-49 in his last 172 games.

-- Jose Theodore is too inconsistent to win in the spring. Theodore has had consistency issues since his Vezina/Hart Trophy year with Montreal. But, to ask the question one usually asks at this point, what have you done for me lately? Well, if we define “lately” as we did above – that being after Thanksgiving – Theodore is 15-4-0, 2.62, .917. He has allowed more than three goals three times in those 19 appearances (disclosure – two of them have come in his last two appearances). Are those Vezina numbers? Not really, but over a full year it would put him in a neighborhood that includes Tim Thomas (2.52/.915), Marc-Andre Fleury (2.68/.906), Jonas Hiller (2.70/.919), or Cam Ward (2.74, .913).

Then there are the improvements. Jeff Schultz is showing signs of growing into his frame and becoming a solid defensive defenseman. He is a plus-37 in 52 games and has had only seven “minus” games this year (two of those coming in his first four contests). And although it doesn’t bear on this discussion, Schultz is on the brink of setting a career high in points (he has 16 and needs three to set a new mark).

Brian Pothier has already matched the number of games he played in 2007-2008 (38) and has played more than four times the number of regular season games he played in last season (nine). For the Caps, that has been almost like a free agent signing for the second pair. On a per-82 game basis he is on a pace equivalent to his best year in Ottawa regarding his plus/minus numbers. He hasn’t had a minus game since November 14th (20 games) and has had only one since October 17th (31 games).

The Caps are not the New Jersey Devils. They are not built that way, they are not coached that way. They are in fact, as Campbell states, “fun to watch” with their solid-fuel booster offense. But they are not an incompetent defensive team and far from the inept label that seems to persist in attaching itself to any discussion involving the words “Capitals,” “defense,” and “goaltending.” The Caps are not as good as their goals against in this 14-game winning streak (2.36/game). They might be, though, a 2.5-2.6 goals allowed sort of team. If so, that mark would be better than two of the Stanley Cup winners since the lockout (Pittsburgh at 2.84 last year and Carolina at 3.15 in 2006). It would be worse than the 2.18 posted by the champion Red Wings in 2008 or the Cup-winning Anaheim Ducks’ 2.42 in 2007.

Two observations would be fair to make at this point. First, the playoffs are a different animal, and Campbell alludes to this in his critique of the Caps’ defense. The other is that 14 games, or 34 (since Thanksgiving) for that matter, isn’t a full season. But what we are seeing here is not unlike what happened last year to the Penguins. The Penguins were not an especially good defensive team for the first half of the season, but then the light went on over their heads after a coaching change. They didn’t become a great defensive team (2.52 goals against/game after Dan Bylsma took over), but they became good enough, and it carried over into the post-season, where they also were “good enough” – 2.62 goals-against/game.

The Caps have been a better team on their own end of the ice since Thanksgiving, but they might have had their “come to Jesus” moment when Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina were traded to Columbus. Since Alex Ovechkin was named captain, the Caps are 17-1-0 and have allowed 45 goals in the process (2.50/game). Ovechkin seems to have bought into the “responsibility” that goes with the job – he has been on the ice for only seven of the 45 goals scored against the Caps since he donned the “C” and only once has been on the ice for two goals against in a game. The rest of the team seems to have jumped aboard – forwards, defensemen, goaltenders – to play a much better 200-foot game.

And that is a formula for winning a championship.

Thus, we hope, endeth the narrative.

Travel, Schmavel

Dan Steinberg gave voice to Caps fans everywhere in the Post today in discussing NBC's creepy affection for all things Penguin. Of special note was the attention being paid to the travel itinerary of the Penguins, who -- horrors! -- took a chauferred bus to Montreal's airport after Saturday's game, boarded an airplane (we're guessing not on the Indians' charter from "Major League"), then took another chauferred bus ride to Washington, where they slept in a hotel (probably not a Motel 6) before waking up to go to work against the Caps on Sunday.

Dan noted...

I understand that travel woes and visits to road-side Burger Kings make for great copy. And yet the Caps have now tied for the third-longest win streak in NHL history. Only two teams have gone longer. That means their accomplishment has to be more rare than a bad travel tale in a league that plays games in Edmonton and Calgary. The Penguins can't possibly be only the third or fourth team to have to eat fast food while on a late-night bus ride the night before a game.

And yet the Penguins' travel woes made up a larger portions of the telecast than the Caps streak. There certainly was no context given to Sunday's comeback, no sense of how many other times the Caps had rallied with a flurry of offense throughout their month-long run, no discussion of whether they could seriously challenge the all-time record of 17.

There was a graphic showing where the Pens had traveled and how long it took, but none that I remember charting the progression of this win streak.

Well, let's take a look back at what has happened so far with the Caps, knowing full well that this journey is not yet complete...

January 12 -- The Caps lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 7-4, in what was perhaps the most unexpected loss of the season, the Caps having defeated the Lightning 12 straight times dating back to November 2007. The Caps then headed out to Miami to face the Panthers. Distance traveled to Miami: 204 miles (all distances "as the crow flies").

January 13 -- The second half of a back-to-back set on the road, the Caps came back from a 4-1 deficit to force overtime and win when Tomas Fleischmann scored in a Gimmick. From there, it was off to the airport to head home. Distance traveled to Washington: 928 miles.

January 15 - 19 -- A three-game home stand against the Maple Leafs, the Flyers, and the Red Wings. The Caps unleash some offense in putting up six on the Leafs (a 6-1- win) and five on the Flyers (a 5-3 win) before taking on the Red Wings in what would be a hard-fought affair. The Caps came back from a 2-1 third period deficit to win, 3-2. Then, it's on to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins in the teams' first meeting of the year. Distance traveled to Pittsburgh: 189 miles.

January 21 -- The Caps spotted the Penguins the first goal, gave up the lead, then tied things up at three apiece as the teams went to the locker rooms at the second intermission. The Caps put up three in the last 20 minutes to win, going away, 6-3. Then, they went away, boarding a flight back to DC. Distance traveled to Washington: 189 miles.

January 23 -- The Phoenix Coyotes paid a visit, a dangerous opponent in that: a) the Caps don't see them much, and b) they were having a surprisingly good season. The Caps built a lead off two goals in the second period to give the home team a 3-1 lead at the second intermission. Phoenix made it interesting with a goal early in the third, but Michal Neuvirth slammed the door after that (he had saves on two shorthanded breakaways in the game), and Alex Ovechkin scored an empty netter for the 4-2 final. Then it was off to play the Islanders. Distance Traveled to Uniondale, NY: 221 miles.

January 26 -- The Caps made quick work of the Islanders, scoring four in the first period on their way to a 7-2 win. There was trouble looming though, as Jose Theodore was injured in the game and gave way to Michal Neuvirth for the final 20 minutes. But it was back to DC for the boys. Distance traveled to Washington: 221 miles.

January 27 - 31 -- Another three-game home stand, this time against Anaheim, Florida, and Tampa Bay. Defense was the name of the game in this trio of games, the Caps hold the three opponents to a total of four goals while getting 12 of their own. Neuvirth was especially sharp, saving 65 of 67 shots in the first two games. Theodore got the call in the third game - a tough 3-2 win over Tampa Bay - and got the win as the Caps tied a franchise record for consecutive wins. Then it was off to Boston. Distance traveled to Boston: 393 miles.

February 2 -- It was sort of like Groundhog Day. Wake up, hold another opponent to fewer than three goals. This time, Jose Theodore did the trick, allowing only an early first period goal to the Bruins in a 4-1 win. It was the seventh time in nine games the Caps allowed two or fewer goals. Then it was a date in the Big Apple. Distance traveled to New York City: 187 miles.

February 4 -- It sure looked grim here, and in an unexpected way. The Rangers - a team having immense trouble scoring goals, took a 2-1 lead after one period. Then after allowing the Caps to take the lead with two goals early in the second, came back with three of their own to take a 5-3 lead. But Alex Ovechkin scored with nine seconds left in the second period on a sick move through Michal Roszival to get the deficit to one at the break. Tom Poti scored on a power play less than a minute into the third, then Nicklas Backstrom potted the game-winner a little over five minutes later. The Caps held the Rangers to six shots in the third period, and Jose Theodore saved them all for the 6-5 win, earning the Caps a trip back home. Distance traveled to Washington: 206 miles.

February 5 - 7 -- A two-game home stand, one against the struggling Atlanta Thrashers, who traded star winger Ilya Kovalchuk to the Devils, and one against the arch-rival Penguins in a rematch of the 6-3 Caps win in Pittsburgh. The Caps disposed of the Thrashers in a 5-2 game that was a bit closer than the game indicated, which set the stage for the Penguins and their trek from Montreal to DC to play a game on Sunday afternoon in snow-bound Washington. The Pens started fast, but the Caps closed faster, coming from 4-1 down to win 5-4 in overtime. The game, featuring a pair of early goals from Sidney Crosby and a hat trick from Alex Ovechkin (one goal shattering the case cover of the goal camera), has already been dubbed by some as the "game of the year."

Total Games: 14
Total wins: 14
Total score: 68-33
Power play: 17/55 (30.9%)
Penalty killing: 53/65 (81.5%)

Total distance traveled: 2,738 miles

True, 2,738 miles is a heavy week's worth for some teams in the Western Conference, but travel is a part of the game, whether it's hockey moms and dads ferrying kids a couple hundred miles to a pee-wee tournament, teenagers riding buses across prairies in juniors, prospects and guys at the end of their careers looking out bus windows in the AHL, or even hopping the occasional bus in the NHL.

14-game winning streaks are somewhat less common.

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 5 - Penguins 4 (OT)

Well, if that’s the last home game for the Caps until March, fans will have a ton of memories to re-live in the meantime.

The Caps spotted the Pittsburgh Penguins a 4-1 lead, then came back like, well, rampaging beasts to claim a 5-4 overtime win and their 14th consecutive win that ties them with the 1929-1930 Boston Bruins for the third longest such streak in NHL history.

There was something for everyone in this one – goals by the stars, goals by the grinders…iffy goaltending, clutch goaltending… big hits, big scrums…

But it all came down to an errant stick, that being the one held by Penguin defenseman Brooks Orpik, who used it to pop Alexander Semin in the chops 2:26 into overtime and earn a seat in the penalty box. With the Caps skating on a 4-on-3 advantage, Mike Green slid the puck over to Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer that worked through goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to hit the far post. With Fleury unable to locate and smother the puck, Mike Knuble pounced, backhanding the puck back through Fleury’s legs and into the net for the win that sent the hearty, blizzard-weary crowd into a frenzy.

Before that, though, the matchup between Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby didn’t let the folks at NBC, or in the arena for that matter, down. Crosby scored a pair of goals three minutes apart in the first period to stake the Penguins to a 2-0 lead (the fourth straight game the Caps have allowed the game’s first goal), but then Ovechkin put the Caps on his shoulders and brought them back, halving the lead midway through the second period, then scoring a pair just over four minutes apart in the third to record his – and the Caps’ – first hat trick of the season.

But those two weren’t the whole story, wither. Jordan Staal netted a pair of goals 1:24 apart in the second period that seemed to put the game out of reach of the Caps at 4-1. Eric Fehr bull-rushed his way to a goal, flipping a backhand shot at Fleury, then following his own shot to pot the rebound that Fleury allowed.

And despite the snow that blanketed the region (we didn’t make it to this game, barely getting our driveway cleared in time for the noon faceoff), it seemed like a playoff-volume crowd at Verizon Center. You really couldn’t have asked for a more entertaining game (well, maybe you could if you were a Penguin fan).

Other stuff…

-- Mike Knuble didn’t get a star, but he should have gotten something (if only a lick of the face from Kanoobie). In addition to the game-winning goal, itself a product of sticking with the play, it was his following up in the faceoff circle on a faceoff between Nicklas Backstrom and Sidney Crosby, getting to the puck and moving it to Ovechkin for the game-tying hat trick goal.

-- The Caps once more displayed a finishing kick, outscoring the Penguins 2-0 in the third and 1-0 in overtime. In the streak the Caps have outscored the opposition 30-6 in the third period, 23-14 in the second. They have scored in each and every one of the 14 second and third periods.

-- The Caps have outscored the Penguins 5-0 in the third period in two games this season, not including the overtime winner today.

-- Think this was a game that players took seriously? Mike Knuble had his first fight since squaring off with Mike Fisher in November 2002. Kanoobie was really howling over Knuble getting the GHHT (Gordie Howe hat Trick)..

-- Think this was a game that players took seriously, II? 15 skaters for the Caps were credited with hits. Brian Pothier had four (including one particularly picturesque one on Brooks Orpik in the second period), Jeff Schultz had three.

-- It was an amazingly clean game from a turnover standpoint. Combined the teams had only a total of 21 turnovers while registering 152 combined shot attempts. Neither Crosby nor Ovechkin had a giveaway.

-- OK, I realize that this being an NBC national game, Crosby had to get the second star, but on my scoresheet it was Jordan Staal. Despite being the sort of player who draws a considerable amount of defensive responsibility, he was on the ice for only one Caps goal (while getting two of his own). His misfortune was that the goal he was on the ice for happened to be the last one.

-- Lost in all this is a “game within a game” item. One of the reasons the Penguins were able to pound shots at the Caps so effectively in last spring’s playoff was that they abused Mike Green mercilessly in the Caps end. Green had no giveaways in more than 27 minutes of ice time.

-- Five Caps defensemen had 16 of the total of 22 blocked shots (Shaone Morrisonn was the only defenseman not to have one).

-- I’m guessing Bill Guerin was complimenting Alexander Semin for having mastered the “Crosby head snap” for which he drew the high-sticking call from Orpik in the overtime. That a Penguin – any Penguin – could complain about that, having spent several years watching the master of the “head snapping back” move, is rather bizarre. They should recognize art when they see it, and besides, imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.

-- “Tyler Kennedy would obliterate Nicklas Backstrom.” He’s “a little ball of hate.” Maybe, Pierre, but it seemed Backstrom acquitted himself pretty well. Yes, by holding on for dear life. But truth be told, Backstrom has a little bit of the Forsberg in him, too, when it comes to nastiness.

-- Here is an indicator of the kind of pressure that the Caps’ skill at forward provides for an opponent – of the five minors taken by the Penguins, four were taken by defensemen.

-- Alex Ovechkin had six shots on goal in 25:36. Ok, he does that. Mike Green had five shots in 27 minutes and change. OK, that’s not unheard of. Alexander Semin, five shots in 19 minutes. He’s had games like that. But Eric Fehr, five shots in 11:59? He must have been channeling the days when he was at Hershey playing the Baby Pens.

-- Speaking of which, Hershey also came back from a three-goal deficit, also against the Penguins (The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton version), and also had a hat trick (Mathieu Perreault). Hershey is 39-9-2 for the season. Caps are 41-12-6. 80 wins combined for the teams and it’s barely February?

-- Did Jose Theodore have his best game? No. But he did stop the last 17 shots he saw to give the Caps a chance to claw back into it.

-- At the other end, Marc-Andre Fleury started well – he stopped the first 16 shots he saw. But he wilted rather badly in the second half of the game, allowing five goals on the last 18 shots he faced.

-- One thing that has characterized the streak so far is the balance the Caps have enjoyed from the top three forward lines. Not today. This was a day for the top line. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Knuble went a combined 4-4-8, including the game-tying and game-winning goals.

-- (edit: we thought we'd better delete the link in this item in that many are reporting being infected with viruses as a result of accessing it). Apparently, one of the NBC telent wasn't in a happy mood after the game, either.

-- Oh, Doc Emrick... if you're going to plug the restaurant a team stops at in the middle of a snowy night for some food, it's probably better for marketing if the team actually wins the game.

OK, be honest. When it was 4-1, you were thinking, “maybe that ESPN Super Bowl pregame show won’t be too bad after all.” But the Caps have owned third periods in this streak – they’ve been outscored in a third period only once in the previous 13 games. And today, they did it again. And it couldn’t be a better way to end the home portion of the pre-Olympic part of the season. The Caps take to the road now with games in Montreal, Ottawa, and St. Louis before splitting up to join their respective national teams or getting a well-earned break. For Caps fans it was a welcome respite from a hard weekend of work dealing with Mother Nature’s haymaker of a punch. And for that, boys, thanks.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, February 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are coming to you live from Peerless Central, otherwise known as McMurdo Station. Well, not really, but it sure seems that way. Here in Loudoun County, Virginia, we have 29 inches of snow, and in Washington we are hoping that there will be a hockey game played against the Pittsburgh Penguins. NBC, the NoBody Cares network, really wants this game played, and so the Penguins are having to make the trek from Montreal, where they played – and lost – a game to the Canadiens yesterday afternoon, to Washington for a noon start today.

The Penguins’ trek apparently included a plane ride to Newark, and then a bus ride to Washington. Well, The Peerless has an exclusive from the bus driver, himself… meet Clark Griswold.

“It’s a pleasure.”

Now Clark, you had a bunch of guys on a bus fresh off a hard loss, having just taken a plane ride to Newark, of all places, then having to get on a bus for a God-knows how long of a ride to DC. How in heaven’s name do you handle a crowd like that?

“Well, I just tell ‘em, ‘hey, hey, easy kids. Everybody on the bus. Boat leaves in two minutes... or perhaps you don't want to see the second largest ball of twine on the face of the earth, which is only four short hours away?’”

You stopped to see a ball of twine?

“No, but hey, they’re from Pittsburgh – not the sharpest knives in the drawer, if you catch my drift.”

Did you have any problems along the way?

“Well, we did get pulled over by a Jersey trooper.”

Speeding?

"No… we had a problem at a rest stop. When the trooper pulled me over, he came up to the window. I said, ‘Hi officer, what's the problem?’ He said, ‘ Get out of the bus!’ He was pissed. When I asked if I was speeding, he cut me off – ‘Shut your mouth, sir!,’ he said. Then he went on -- 'You know, if I weren't in uniform, I'd split your skull with the butt of this revolver faster than you can say, 'police brutality!’ Then he pointed to the back of the bus. ‘Explain this, you son-of-a-bitch!’ he said.”

Oh my God...

“That’s what I said.”

What was it?

“Seems Guerin wouldn’t quit yappin’ about getting an instigator, a fighting, and a game for his kerfuffle with Ryan White, and the guys wanted to get some sleep on the bus ride, so they tied him up on the bumper, and… well, you know.”

Oh my God!

“Oh, he’s okay. Just nicked up a little, but hey… he’s a hockey player. They’re used to that.”

So, it took you quite a while to get here. Did it seem like you’d never find DC?

“For a while it was dicey, and the boys were getting antsy to find a place to get some sleep. But then I told them, ‘I think you're all f*cked in the head. We're ten hours from the f*cking arena, and you want to bail out. Well I'll tell you something. This is no longer a bus ride. It's a quest. It's a quest for fun. I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun. We're all gonna have so much f*cking fun we'll need plastic surgery to remove our goddam smiles. You'll be whistling 'Zip-A-Dee Doo-Dah' out of you're assholes! I gotta be crazy! I'm on a pilgrimage to see a hockey game. Praise hockey! Holy Sh*t!”

One for the books, I’d say.

And that might be what we’re seeing here – the “Great Hockey Game of Twenty-Ten.” The sort of game fans will tell their grandchildren about – “why, when I was your age, I shoveled 18-foot snow drifts out of my 500-foot driveway just so I could see Alex Ovechkin kick Sidney Crosby’s ass all the way back to Pittsburgh.” That sort of thing.

But as for the ass-kickin’, we’ll just have to wait and see about that. The Pens and the Caps are two very skilled teams, two very accomplished teams, but not two equally effective teams this season, as the overall numbers indicate…


Pittsburgh has, however, had some success after taking one in the chops back on January 21st, a 6-3 Caps win. Since then, the Pens are 4-2-0. But even here, they’ve been all over the place. They have a pair of 2-1 wins (one in a Gimmick), and they have a couple of wins where they’ve had some offense (4-2 over the Rangers, 5-4 over Buffalo). Then there are the stinkers – a 4-1 loss to Ottawa (ok, they were in the midst of a winning streak) and a 5-3 loss to Montreal.

The fact is, the Pens are a strange team. No team has been involved in more three-or-more goal games this season. Perhaps fittingly, they’ve split 26 of those games (13-13). Perhaps ominously, they are 2-5 in such games since the start of the year.

None of them, though, have come in the six games since the last time these teams met. The Pens have been outscored by the opposition 17-16 in that span. Here, again, there is the good and the bad for the Penguins. On the good side, they are getting points from the guys who have to get them. Sidney Crosby is 4-4-8, Evgeni Malkin is 2-6-8, and Sergei Gonchar is 1-4-5. But after that, the Penguins have as many as two goals from only two other players, one of whom is back at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (Chris Conner, Pascal Dupuis is the other).

Good and bad, again – the power play, a problem all year for the Penguins, is 4-for-19 over the last six games (21.1 percent). But it is 2-for-13 in the last five (15.4 percent).

Of particular concern for the Penguins might be goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is not having a very good 2010 so far. Since the start of the new year he is 6-5-0, 3.04, .908. Five times in 12 appearances he has allowed at least four goals, and he has been pulled twice, including yesterday in Montreal (perhaps to give him a head start in getting ready for this game, seeing as how the score was 4-2 for Montreal when he was relieved).

If Crosby, Maklin, and Gonchar are getting things done lately, and the Penguins still have only 16 goals in six games, then you might think there are problems down the roster. Well, one problem is that Chris Kunitz – who spends a lot of time on Crosby’s left wing – has been out since January 3rd, recouperating from abdominal surgery. He could return against the Caps today.

The guy on Crosby’s right – Bill Guerin – is 5-3-8 in 16 games since the start of the year, but he has only a goal (no assists) in the six games since the Pens met the Caps. Ruslan Fedotenko hasn’t scored a goal since netting the game-winner in a 5-2 win over Atlanta on January 5th. He has a couple of assists since the January 21st meeting with Washington, but he’s a minus-4 in those six games, too. Pascal Dupuis is 4-6-10 in 16 games since the start of the year and is 2-2-4 in the last six (plus-6 in that span). He’s playing respectably, which is a compliment as far as the secondary scoring for the Pens is concerned at the moment.

The problem often cited with respect to the Penguins is a lack of punch on the wing. Bill Guerin is the only winger with more than 15 goals (the Caps have four wingers with more than 15), so this argument has some merit. But what the Penguins do get is contributions from the defense. Six defensemen have at least ten points (that would be all of them who have played in at least 40 games). As a group, they do not have outsized goal totals (combined the Penguin defense has 24 goals), but they do contribute helpers – four blueliners have more than 15 assists (the Caps have two – Mike Green and Tom Poti).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Jordan Staal

Staal is probably the best third-line center in the game. And at not yet 22 years of age, he is the youngest player ever to appear in 300 NHL games. He has struggled some with scoring lately (1-1-2 in his last eight games), but the key here is his defense. He’s going to have to play hard and well against the Caps big guns for the Penguins to improve their chances of winning. In 13 career games against the Caps he is 1-3-4, minus-3. However, he is 0-0-0, minus-5 in his last five games against Washington.

Washington: Mike Green

He was our player to ponder the last time these teams met, then he didn’t play. But the same argument applies, so we’ll just restate it…

Green has never scored a goal against the Penguins, regular season or playoffs. But that’s not why he is a player to ponder here. In last year’s playoff series against the Penguins, Green was harassed constantly by Penguin forwards on the forecheck. It played a role in the Penguins’ ability to hammer the Caps with shots on goal. He should expect to suffer similar abuse tonight to the extent the Penguins can apply it. If he handles it well, the ice gets tilted more in the Caps’ favor, and the Caps are the superior offensive team.

Keys:

1. Fast out of the gate, Part 1. It’s one thing to fall behind a goal against Boston, the Rangers, or Atlanta (as the Caps have done the last three games). Those teams are not especially gifted offensively. This is a move up in weight class. The Penguins, despite their troubles lately, have to be taken seriously as an offensively gifted team every time out. Falling behind could have, excuse the pun, a “snowball” effect.

2. Fast out of the gate, Part 2. OK, you’re facing a team that played yesterday and had to endure what had to be an uncomfortable bus ride that gets them to the next city sometime early the following morning. Think pressing them early might be a good idea to take their legs away?

3. Set the alarm clock. In three day games this year, the Young Guns are a combined 5-6-11 (Mike Green missed one of them). They are the guys who need to step up in this one for that "fast out of the gate" thing.

In the end, you’d have to think the Caps have a considerable advantage here. A full day off between games, sleeping in their own beds, playing in their own arena – against a team that played yesterday, had a difficult travel itinerary, and will get some sleep at a hotel. But the Penguins aren’t champs for nothing. They can handle adversity, and they – like 13 teams before them – will be motivated. Still, the Caps are coming in hot, and the Penguins are coming in… not.

Caps 5 – Penguins 3

The Day After Tomorrow

Here in Loudoun County, Virginia...

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Thrashers 2

OK, so… the Caps score an own goal on their own power play… their top center misses the last 20 minutes with “flu-like” symptoms… they started a rookie goalie who was just called up from Hershey (again)… their biggest hitter was credited with no hits… they were outshot 45-32…

And they still won, 5-2.

The Caps climbed into a tie for fourth for the longest winning streaks in NHL history with their 13th consecutive win, this one over the Atlanta Thrashers. It was another case of another team starting with spit and vinegar, then wilting when the Caps finally got their rhythm.

No, we don’t see that as a lasting formula for winning, but it’s working now, and you really can’t argue with success. The Caps fell behind, again (the third straight game they allowed the game’s first goal), but roared back after suffering that insult with four goals of their own.

Again, as it has been so often in this streak, it was a case of balance. Ten skaters registered points on the five goals, and the points were spread rather evenly among the lines…

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble: 2-3-5, +4
Semin-Fleischmann-Laich: 1-1-2, +1
Chimera-Morrison-Fehr: 1-0-1, -3
Gordon-Steckel-Bradley: 0-2-2, +3

But while the Caps were having fun at the offensive end of the ice, Michal Neuvirth was spending 60 minutes saying, “uh, you got another goalie prospect here…” Neuvirth saved 44 of 45 shots off Thrasher sticks, the odd goal being scored after he made a save of Rich Peverley, who was in on a breakaway, but watched helplessly as Alexander Semin (charging hard to try to make up for having his attempted cross-ice pass at the other end stripped off his stick by Peverley to create the breakaway) kicked the puck back into his own net. Otherwise, Neuvirth was sublime.

Other stuff…

- Break stick, go to bench, pick up another, skate back, score goal. It really isn’t that easy, is it?

-- Alex Ovechkin has now been captain for 17 games. The Caps are 16-1-0 over that span of games. Rather impressive. But Ovechkin’s numbers look positively “1980’s” in those 17 games. His “per-82 games” pace looks like this… 63-92-155, +96. That’s right, plus-96. In those 17 games, the Caps have allowed 41 goals. Number of goals Ovechkin has been on the ice for?... six.

-- With two minutes to go in what would be the Caps 13th straight win, they had scored 61 goals during the streak. Mike Green finally got his first during this streak with an empty netter for the fifth goal and 62nd in this streak.

-- So, another clean hit followed up by a guy stepping in as “The Equalizer.” This is really getting old. Nice to see John Erskine dispose of that nonsense with a straight left that caught Chris Thorburn flush on the cheek. Robert McCall, he ain’t.

-- When was the last time David Steckel was held to 30 percent on draws? October 24th – 48 games ago. In fact, the only Caps who won more than he lost (those taking more than one faceoff) was they guy who missed the last period – Nicklas Backstrom.

-- Jason Chimera’s bomb from down the left side had a lot of “8” in it. He just overpowered Ondrej Pavelec with the shot.

-- And isn’t Chimera looking like a fine pickup… 19 games, 4-6-10, plus-5, and he’s been a sturdy presence.

-- And there was the continuing refrain of the Caps wearing down goalies. Tonight’s victim, Ondrej Pavelec, allowed one goal on the first 15 shots he faced, then one in seven, then allowed goals on consecutive shots 1:08 apart early in the third.

-- As for those goals 1:08 apart, that looks like the 13th time in the last 12 games that the Caps have scored goals less than three minutes apart.

-- Yes, the Thrashers outshot the Caps 45-32, but the attempts were another story. The Caps had 73 to Atlanta’s 67. Early on, the Thrashers held a puck-possession and territorial advantage, but that evaporated as the game wore on.

-- As for the other young guns among the forwards and their 82-game paces since the change in captain, Nicklas Backstrom is now on a 48-72-120, +77 pace, and Alexander Semin is on a 58-68-126, +58 pace. Shoot, Tomas Fleischmann is on a point-a-game pace (14-68-82 per-82 game pace over the last 17 games).

-- Watching Semyon Varlamov is the Fourth of July, with roman candles and sparklers. Watching Michal Neuvirth is sitting under the tree at a picnic sipping on iced tea. Both enjoyable, both capable of making you happy.

It was a good win, a solid win. It wasn’t without hiccups, but for the second game in a back-to-back with all the distractions of weather and the news surrounding the opponent, it was a fine night for the men in red. It’s hockey weather this weekend in the DC region, and when Sunday rolls around, we would expect that the Caps will be ready for some hockey and some roast Penguin for Sunday dinner. Tonight, though, was a warm cup of hot cocoa on a snowy night.

Ok, you....you dirty dozen

I don't know who did this, but they get a doff of the prognostitorial chapeau for their inspired art work (click the image for a larger version)...

Friday... The 13th?

Horror for opponents...

...Joy for Caps fans.




(photos: AP, Getty Images)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, February 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Here we are, coming to you live from McMurdo Station…uh, Washington, DC, where the Caps will host the Atlanta Thrashers… the Ilya Kovalchuk-less Atlanta Thrashers. The Thrashers parted ways with the elite left wing last night, sending Kovalchuk to the New Jersey Devils for a quartet of assets whose names are likely to be lost to history before too long. For the record, the price that Atlanta extracted from the Devils for perhaps the second most electrifying player in the game (plus Anssi Salmela) is:

John Oduya, a competent defenseman

Niclas Bergfors, a former first-round draft pick who started the year rather well (5-9-14 in his first 18 games), but who does not have a goal in 2010 and has only one assist in 16 games.

Patrice Cormier, currently serving a season-ending suspension for flinging an elbow at the head of Mikael Tam in a QMJHL game.

A first round draft pick, which would seem to be no better than perhaps 25th in the entry draft, given where the Devils are likely to finish in the standings.

Needless to say, the cousins have opinions on the matter. Fearless, what’s your take?

“Not an impact player in the bunch. Yes, they got a couple of guys who might – and the operative word there is ‘might’ – be top-six forwards in a few years in Bergfors and Cormier, but they couldn’t pry Mattias Tedenby or Jacob Josefsen from the Devils, who might have better upsides.”

Cheerless?

“AH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…”

Uh, OK then…Fearless, what does this tell Atlanta fans?

“That Don Waddell isn’t much of a horse trader…”

Cheerless, would you agree?

“AH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…”

Uh, yeah… What about Oduya?

“He’s not a bad defenseman, but he’s probably a third pair even on that team, behind Enstrom, Kubina, Bogosian, and Hainsey. If Kubina is moved, he moves up the depth chart.”

Cheerless, what do you think of getting the first rounder?

“AH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….”

“I think cuz is going to pop a blood vessel…”

“hoo-hoo…I was just readin’ the Thrasher message boards… they thought they were getting Zubrus or Ralston. And those folks are geniuses compared to the ‘experts.’ One of those ESPN guys had Kovalchuk going for Travis Zajac, Dainius Zubrus, and Andy Greene. Yeah… that works.”

Not a good day for the pundits…

“And that goober who names himself after a former Flyer?...He had the Thrashers wanting two of Hartnell, van Riemsdyk, and Giroux from Philadelphia… geez, why not ask for a lifetime supply of cheese steaks, too? "

Yeah… Eklund… often, well… always wrong, but never in doubt. But that leaves the Thrashers gasping for offense as they take the Verizon Center ice – we think – for tonight’s sled dog race…uh, hockey game at Verizon Center.

The Thrashers were already something of an offense-challenged team, given that Kovalchuk had 31 goals (of the 162 the Thrashers have) and that Atlanta had only 41 goals in 16 games since the start of the new year (2.56/game). The overall numbers look like this…

The top scorer for Atlanta is now Maxim Afinogenov. Ironic, isn’t it, that a player that was given up for dead, unwanted by a lot of teams in the off-season has found his scoring touch and will be the Thrashers’ big offensive weapon heading into this game. The difficulty, though, is that since putting up a 2-2-4 effort against the Islanders on January 2nd, he is 2-3-5 in his last 14 games.

With Kovalchuk’s departure, Rich Peverley now takes over the top spot in goal scoring, tied with Afinogenov (17). He has had a decent start to the new year with five goals in his last 15 games. He doesn’t have a goal against the Caps this year and is a minus-4 in three games (he does have three assists).

Nik Antropov looks to have been a pretty good off-season signing by the Thrashers. He is third on the club in goals (13), tied for second in points (42), and has the best plus-minus on the club by a wide margin (plus-17). He has had only two minus games in his last 18 contests. He has 20 points in 27 career games against the Caps (7-13-20), including three assists in two games this year.

The Thrashers get a significant amount of scoring out of their blueliners – four of them are in double-digit points. But they also have a couple of defensemen who are on the far side of minus-10 (Ron Hainsey and Zach Bogosian). For Hainsey, he has a grand total of only three points in 2010 (all assists), and he has been a plus player in only four times in 16 games. Bogosian is 1-3-4 in 2010 (but without a point in his last six games) and has been a plus player only three times in 16 games. Oduya might be expected to shore up the defensive end of the ice, but with only four points this year (2-2-4) the Thrashers are not going to be getting a lot of offensive production there (whether he plays in this game is iffy, given travel and that sort of thing).

In goal Atlanta has a difficult mix to sort out. Johan Hedberg is 36 years old and provides stability and, occasionally, some fine efforts. He recently had a three game run in which he allowed only a single goal in each game. But that is sandwiched by a four game streak to start the year in which he allowed 14 goals (1-1-2, .857 SV) and his last two appearances, in which he allowed three and four goals (61 saves on 68 shots -- .897 SV) in splitting two decisions.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ondrej Pavelec is only 22 years old, and he’s had the struggles 22-year old goaltenders often have. He is 3-3-1 in eight appearances since January 1st (3.16, .902), and he has lost his last two decisions, a 5-2 loss to Carolina on January 21st and a 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay last Tuesday. You would have to think Hedberg would get the call in this one, if only because Pavelec is 0-1-1, 5.73, .836 in two appearances against the Caps this season. Hedberg isn’t a lot better – 0-1-0, 4.73, .826.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Atlanta: Evander Kane

With Kovalchuk gone, Kane might now get to jump start his development a little more. He is now the “franchise player” in waiting. A lot to ask of a youngster who is still only 18. Kane has 11 goals in this, his rookie season, but he has only three in his last 32 games, one since New Year’s Day. He has yet to register a point against the Caps (0-0-0 in three games).

Washington: Braden Holtby

Does the kid get his NHL debut? If so, one could do worse than have it come against the Thrashers, who might be expected to still be sorting out the Kovalchuk deal and that all of a sudden has become a very offense-challenged team. You would have to say Holtby has exceeded expectations so far this year. He started in South Carolina and is 7-2-3, 2.95, .911 with the Stingrays. He has spent a lot of time in Hershey, where his numbers are even better – 16-2-1, 2.04, .928. If he gets the nod and manages a win, you would have to say his season went from “exceeding expectations” to perhaps “meteoric.”

(edit: Michal Neuvirth was called up, so that meteor apparently doesn't get to flash across the sky tonight).

Keys:

1. Focus, focus, focus. This will be an odd game. The Thrashers are playing their first game without Ilya Kovalchuk in their organization, the Caps are coming home after a hard-fought, come-from-behind win, and there is the weather that could play havoc with team travel and keep the crowd down. Being able to maintain focus will be a chore.

2. Play Fehr. Eric Fehr has five goals in 12 career games against the Thrashers, including one in two games this season. He has five goals in 16 games since the start of the new year. It doesn’t sound like a lot until you see that he is stuck around 12 minutes of playing time a night. Fehr does not have a goal in his last six games.

3. All for one and one for all. If Holtby gets the start, giving the kid a helping hand – playing responsibly and not leaving him out to dry, not taking bad penalties – will be important to getting the kid off on the right foot.

In the end, the Caps are rolling, while the Thrashers are spinning their wheels (6-6-4 since the start of the year). The Caps could get caught looking ahead to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they’ve been good at tending to the business at hand during this streak, even if their level of play seems to have slipped a notch in the last three games. Still, the Caps should keep the fun run going…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3

A TWO-point night: Caps 6 - Rangers 5

Dirty Dozen, indeed.

It wasn’t what you might consider a close-fought game, although there was a fair amount of smackin’ around (61 hits combined). It wasn’t quite a track meet, but it was quite an exhibition of power play production (7-for-15 combined). What it was in the end was the Caps’ 12th straight win – a 6-5 victory over the New York Rangers. There were several stories tonight…

Alex Ovechkin recorded his 500th point on what is likely among the top-five highlight reel goals he has in his career. With the clock winding down in the second period and the Caps down by two, he carried the puck down the left side, then cut hard around defenseman Michal Roszival in the left wing faceoff circle as Roszival was desperately looking around at his skates to see where the puck went. Ovechkin couldn’t get both hands free to the shaft of his stick, so with his left hand he pushed the blade of his stick up and under the puck, lifting it over goalie Henrik Lundqvist’s left pad. The puck crawled all the way over Lundqvist and plopped down just inside the far post with nine seconds left in the period to give the Caps life going into the third period. Ovechkin finished the night 2-1-3 to take the NHL lead in goals (38) and points (80) to go with his league lead in plus-minus (plus-37).

Nicklas Backstrom had a monster game, finishing 1-4-5 for the third time in his career. And, he was clutch – he had points on each of the last three Caps goals, getting the game-winner himself in the sixth minute of the third period. His four assists – all primary assists – were provided to three different goal scorers (Mike Knuble, Tom Poti, and Ovechkin twice). Backstrom is now 9-14-23, plus-15 in his last 15 games.

Jose Theodore took a haymaker to his statistics, allowing five goals on 38 shots. But he was good when he had to be, spectacular late. His stop of a Marian Gaborik put-back with 13 seconds left preserved the slim one-goal lead and the streak. To the extent he was fishing pucks out of the back of the net earlier in the game, it was largely a product of the Rangers throwing everything but Stan Fischler’s typewriter at the front of the net on the power play and creating screens (the Rangers finished 4-for-6 on the power play).

Other stuff…

-- Color Kanoobie happy. Mike Knuble recorded his 13th goal in his last 15 games (seventh in his last five).

-- Tomas Fleischmann had a pretty quiet two-point night. But those assists were on the game-tying and game-winning goals.

-- 12 times in the last 11 games, the Caps have scored goals less than three minutes apart. They did it twice tonight (4:41 and 7:16 of the second period, 19:51 of the second and 59 seconds of the third period)

-- Boyd Gordon won eight of nine draws. That’s not surprising. He got a goal (his third in 23 games this year). That was something of a surprise.

-- Olli Jokinen… a goal, an assist, seven shots, three hits, and he won eight of 12 draws. He also took three minor penalties, two of which the Caps scored on.

-- Chris Drury is going to be one huge welt tonight. He blocked four shots, but two of them ripped chunks of flesh out of his hide, thanks to Ovechkin slappers.

-- Wade Redden was once an all-star caliber defenseman. Tonight he was getting Matt Gilroy minutes. What happened to Redden is one of hockey’s great mysteries.

-- If someone had said when Tom Poti was signed to the Caps that he would be the best all-around defenseman on the club before his tour was up, who would have taken that claim seriously? He’s making a case, certainly in the absence of Mike Green… he’s had one minus game since Christmas (plus-18 in 18 games), has three goals over that span (including one tonight) and 13 points. He has 14 straight games with more than 20 minutes of ice time, and tonight’s 26:36 was his second highest in a regulation game this year.

-- Was Henrik Lundqvist gassed at the end? He allowed one goal on the first 15 shots he faced, two on the next eight, three on the last nine.

-- The locker room guys will catch a break. Sean Avery didn’t do enough to work up a sweat. No need to get his jersey laundered.

-- The Rangers scored as many power play goals tonight (four) as they had in their previous 15 games. They hadn’t had that many in a game since going 5-for-10 against Toronto on December 29, 2007.

-- The five goals allowed by the Caps equaled the number they allowed in the previous four games, combined.

It was quite a game, reminiscent of the goal-fests of the 1980’s. And that was the problem for the Rangers. Give them their due, they came out snarling and pressing and intent on ending the Caps’ winning streak. They crowded the net, they converted chances. But the Rangers do not have the depth of skill the Caps have. The Caps managed to keep Marian Gaborik off the board, and that was the difference in the end. The Caps’ big guns scored – Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble. The Rangers’, well… big gun… didn’t.

And now the Caps come home. They will be taking on a team that is in upheaval, but that sort of thing can focus the mind, too. The Thrashers will be dangerous tomorrow, another team that will have its sights set on ending the streak.

Get some sleep on the plane ride home guys, you earned it.