Capitals Development Camp -- Day 2

Today was Day 2 of Capitals Development Camp, which is actually Day 1 for The Peerless, which is Day 4 of our summer vacation. All that said, today was a day to find refuge from the Khao Yai National Park in summer… oh, wait, it’s Washington. It’s a humidity thing.

Anyway, refuge being welcome from the rather humid outdoors, so too was hockey. Welcome, that is. And today was the second day of Camp Hockeywanda at Kettler Capitals Iceplex -- summer camp for hockey prospects -- where 18, 19, and 20 year olds (give or take) gather to participate in such summer staples as two-on-none drills, five-on-five scrimmages, and of course, the dreaded “herbies.” But we’ll get to that…

There are really three broad categories of player at such events. There are those whose skill level is just so clearly evident that you know at some point, absent the sun stopping in the sky and sucking the earth into its fiery embrace, they will find their way to the NHL. Not this year, certainly, and perhaps not next year. But they have the skills and the presence that says, “NHLer.”

Then there are those guys who have been here before. These young men have gone through the drills, have some knowledge of the system the Caps use, know what’s coming (those herbies), and exude the sort of confidence borne of knowledge and experience.

Then there are the guys who are looking for that one chance to impress. It might be with a sparkling move, it might be with their sheer determination, it might be with their sense of responsibility and “coachability” – getting an instruction and getting it right, this time and every time. They might not have been a high draft pick, they might be a camp invitee, but this is their chance to measure themselves and maybe get a second or third look down the road.

In the first group you would be inclined to think Marcus Johansson and Evgeni Kuznetsov would be included. You would be right, but for entirely different reasons. Johansson was in the morning group (the one with arguably lesser known names among them) and carried himself with the sort of confidence-bordering-on-arrogance that players who have big things ahead of them seem to universally have. Oh, and yes, he is skilled. But what impressed us as much as anything was that he delivered the only bona fide hit of the morning session.

The obvious comparison to make with Johansson is with his countryman, Nicklas Backstrom, who went through one of these a few years ago (has it been that long?). At this point, we would have to say that Backstrom’s talent was clearer to see, but Johansson looks a lot more confident and comfortable than we remember Backstrom being in his first year going through this. He has to demonstrate an ability to compete against better talent down the road, but we can’t discount the possibility that he will be on the roster on opening night.

On the other hand, Kuznetsov has a very obvious skill set. He skates rather effortlessly, and he is very smooth as a stickhandler. He also seems rather comfortable in his own skin, looking as if he was cracking wise at every opportunity (not inappropriately). But what we noticed was that he is a perpetual motion machine. We recall one drill, one in which the sides alternated ends of the ice, one group at one end going through it while the next group was poised to take to the other end at the whistle. Kuznetsov reminded us of the dragster at the line, revving its engines in anticipation of the green light.

The third player in the mix might be Stanislav Galiev who might take a bit longer than the other two to crack an NHL lineup, but he skated with the sort of confidence that comes from being a step ahead of and above much of the competition.

In the second group are names that followers of the Caps would certainly recognize as players making progress (in some cases haltingly) through the system. Perhaps the most interesting of this group is 2008 draftee Anton Gustafsson. He is reported to be healthy for this camp, a welcome change from the past. But whether it is a product of his being healthy or having been through these camps before, he looked quicker and smoother than we remember seeing him. One play stood out. In one of the drills, Kuznetsov skated in on the goaltender and very adeptly pulled that puck back and wrapped it around the goalie. Gustafsson was the next skater in, and he used almost exactly the same move with the same successful result. We doubt he would have tried that, let alone succeeded, in the past.

Cody Eakin also looked better for having had the experience of this camp (not to mention the confidence-building experience with the Hershey Bears in this year’s Calder Cup run). Watching him matching up against Kuznetsov in the scrimmage drills was an interesting game-within-a-game treat one gets at these events.

Stefan Della Rovere looked a bit subdued in today’s session, but he looks as if he’s been here before. And the experiment to make a winger out of Joe Finley appears to be over. Finley looks to be a more polished skater, and we took note that even when he hits a guy at half-speed, it is like getting hit by a Kenworth.

The third group of players is largely a group of free agent invitees, players who have something of a long shot to find a place in this organization on a long-term basis. But that doesn’t keep some from having their moments. One in each session caught out eye. Cameron Burt skated with Johansson and Galiev in the morning session and held his own in terms of keeping up with the pace. It is hard to develop a chemistry with linemates on such short notice, but he seemed to be in position often enough in the scrimmage portions of the session that with time he might be click with Johansson and Galiev. Not to say that it would ever happen, but it suggests that he has the skill to get a longer look, either here or with another club.

Chris Forfar got our attention in the afternoon session for standing up to Joe Finley, who on a couple of occasions smeared the young forward along the wall. To his credit he tried to return the favor when play headed the other way, but giving away eight inches and 60 pounds meant that effort was in greater supply than success.

No Caps Development Camp session is complete, though, without the “herbies” – the 60-seconds or so of hell in which players skate to each of the lines and back in a series of sprints. Well, to today’s was added a twist… changes of direction. Not only did the players have to blue line and back, red line and back, but when they got to the far blue line, coaches were perched in four corners of a box in the far end. Exhausted from the drills and the first part of the herbies, players had to go from coach to coach and back, which probably tested their ability to concentrate (uh, Woods, right?... “No, French!”) as much as it did their endurance.  The coaches were having to play traffic cop, pointing out which coach to skate to, to prevent players from skating into one another.  Ahh... summer camp.  The stuff of memories.

It was a great way to break up a soggy summer, and with four days left it should make for a fun week. Here are some pictures from today’s activity (click on the image for a larger view)…

So...what did I miss?

Apparently, nothing.

Since last we wrote, last Friday, no free agents have been signed. None, nada, zilch, the big donut. Has every team in the NHL caught McPheeitis? Were Brett Lebda and Joe Corvo (the last defensemen signed, both last Wednesday) the last decent defensemen available?

While we wait on the what the final episode of “As the Kovy Turns” has in store, and while we all ponder the importance of the Blackhawks matching the four-year/$14 million offer sheet deal for Niklas Hjalmarsson tendered by the San Jose Sharks (and Caps fans thought the four year deal for Jeff Schultz was an overpayment?), we might wonder what is going on here?

No takers for Shaone Morrisonn?
None for Brian Pothier?
None for Andy Sutton?
None for Marc-Andre Bergeron?

What gives?

Sure, you would think that after Day One, when the best of the best of the best are picked over, things would slow down. You would think they would really slow down in week two. But no signings in the past five days? Last year, in Days 8-12, 15 signings were recorded (according to tsn.ca), 12 of those signings involving players who changed teams. And this group included Saku Koivu signing with Anaheim, Kurtis Foster with the Lightning, and Brendan Morrison with the Caps.

As if we needed more proof, this is just another reflection of the fact that this is just a very thin crop of free agents. Keep kicking the tires, guys. There must be a great buy out there somewhere…

You Sure You Want To Do This, Kid?

So, Semyon Varlamov wants to change his number. Not satisfied with “40” he was issued when he joined the team (the club apparently having a thing for two-digit numbers ending in "0"), the young netminder has decided to don the number “1” for the 2010-2011 season.

Think it’s a smart move? Well, take a peek at the goalies who have worn “1” in Caps history and their win-loss records in the red, white, blue, black, and gold:

Ron Low (1974-77): 30-94-9
Gary Smith (1977-78): 2-12-3
Jim Bedard (1978-79): 17-40-13
Rollie Boutin (1979-81): 7-10-1
Pat Riggin (1982-85): 67-46-19
Pete Peeters (1985-89): 70-41-15
Mike Liut (1990-92): 27-27-5
Martin Brochu (1998-99): 0-2-0
Craig Billington (1999-02): 11-19-7
Rastislav Stana (2003-04): 1-2-0
Brent Johnson (2005-09): 34-41-12

That comes out to a record of 266-334-84. That would be a 32-40-10 record to put it in 82-game terms. Not the stuff of champions, but some of these goalies played (often heroically) for teams that were bad to the point of being legendary.

Still, as the 12th goalie in Caps history to wear the number “1,” here’s hoping he can do what nine of the previous 11 failed to do – finish his Caps career with an above-.500 record. Oh, and maybe win a Cup or two along the way.

Morning Line -- Caps Cap

From capgeek.com...

Whereas capgeek.com (geez, they do good work) has Tyler Sloan in the roster mix, we do not.  That leaves five roster spots open -- perhaps four forwards and a defenseman -- and almost $9.3 million in cap room.  There is still the issue of whether free agents Tomas Fleischmann (RFA), Andrew Gordon (RFA), and Eric Belanger (UFA) are to be re-signed.  And, there is the matter of whether Mathieu Perreault will make the opening night roster (Gordon as well, if he is re-signed).  There does appear to be a hole for a 5/6/7 defenseman (Caps fans might argue a 1/2/3/4/5/6/7 defenseman) that would come from outside the organization.

What would a "LeBron-Bosh-Wade" Trio Look Like in the NHL?

LeBron, Chris, and D-Wade. Let the championships begin.

LeBron James made his long-awaited announcement of where he would “take his talents” next year (to use his formulation). We can’t say we care a great deal, our following NBA basketball closely having ended when Earvin Johnson and Larry Bird left the stage. But it did get us to thinking, what would be the NHL equivalent scenario of a LeBron James – Chris Bosh – Dwyane Wade trifecta?

Looking at the NBA version, you first have arguably the best – and certainly most compelling – player in the game in LeBron James. No player in the NBA possesses his mix of skill and brawn, his ability to score from 30 feet or looking down at you as he dunks the ball in your face. He can run the floor, he can rebound. And he does it while being the face of the league. You want to argue for anyone else? What other player in the league could command an hour of prime time television time to announce where he would play basketball?

Next, you have a fine player who occupies a place on the edge of the “elite” in the NBA, a player with fine statistics who has toiled in relative anonymity for a team that struggles as often as not. Chris Bosh has spent seven years in Toronto with the Raptors, but has made the playoffs only twice (both times losing in the first round). Only once has any of his Raptor teams finished above .500.

Finally, you have the host – Dwyane Wade – a player of remarkable skill in many aspects of the sport. A scorer, a playmaker, he can beat you in any number of ways. In seven seasons he has averaged fewer than 24 points per game only once, fewer than six-and-a-half assists per game only once. His teams have made the playoffs six times in his seven seasons, and he won an NBA title in 2006.

OK, so who might be the NHL equivalents of such a trio? Well, in place of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, imagine…

…Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Rick Nash. Ovechkin – the guy who will score over, around, or through you. Crosby – the playmaker, the scorer, the guy who will do whatever he needs to do to win. Nash – the power forward with a lock-picker’s touch. We also have Ovechkin – arguably the best (and certainly most compelling) player in the NHL – who has known little but post-season disappointment. There is Nash – the best player on a struggling team that has made the playoffs only once in his career with the Columbus Blue Jackets. And there is Crosby – mentioned in the same breath with the elites in the game (and thought by many to top that list), who has an NHL title on his resume.

Now, imagine Ovechkin and Nash joining Crosby in Pittsburgh (since Crosby is the “Wade” player in this scenario, it’s his team). On ESPN last evening, we already saw a projection that the Miami Heat would win 66 games next year, be guaranteed of a playoff spot (a 100.0 percent probability) and have a 35 percent chance of winning a title in 2011. Would an Ovechkin/Crosby/Nash trio have the same probabilities were they to join forces?

Not on your life.

You could make the argument that even with Evgeni Malkin on that team, the reconstituted Penguins would not win 66 games. The Detroit Red Wings of the 1995-1996 season hold the NHL record for wins (62). Such a team as the one that has this all-star trio might be a good bet to reach 55 wins, but remember that only two teams in the history of the NHL have reached the 60-win mark (the Montreal Canadiens of 1977-1978 being the other).

Would such a team be guaranteed a playoff spot? In the Eastern Conference, as currently constituted, you would have to think so. But a guaranteed top-spot? A division championship to get a top-three spot? They would certainly be a favorite – probably the favorite – to win the top spot in the East, if not the President’s Trophy. But a lock for that kind of finish? Probably not.

What about a championship? Would such a team have that 35 percent chance of winning a title that the Heat have by one projection? Remember, that 62-win Red Wings team lost in the Western Conference finals in six games to the Colorado Avalanche, a team that won 15 fewer games than did the Red Wings that year (but went on to win the Cup in the finals). It helped that in the four games the Avalanche won in that series, the best playoff goalie in NHL history – Patrick Roy – allowed a total of only five goals.

It is the difference between hockey and basketball. The NBA has become – oddly enough for a team sport – an individual-driven enterprise. Individuals are marketed, individuals can make a difference. Hockey is – with its constant motion, four rolling lines, three alternating pairs of defensemen – much more of a team game. And there is no basketball equivalent to what a “hot goalie” can do to the best laid plans in building a team.

Dream all you want about an Ovechkin/Crosby/Nash trifecta. Or substitute whoever you please in your “fantasy” top line. In the NHL, it’s about what you build around those stars as much as the stars themselves.

Just another way to think about the off-season as one part of a “process” for building a roster.

Three Months...

Today is July 8th… 71 days after the Capitals’ season ended and the eighth day of the unrestricted free agency signing period. In all that time, the Caps have not added anyone to their roster, save the prospects they selected in June’s entry draft and a few players whose chief benefit is to re-stock the roster in Hershey. The only signings of note so far are the inking a prospect to an entry level deal (Marcus Johansson), re-signing a couple of their own restricted free agents (Boyd Gordon and Jeff Schultz), and tying up Nicklas Backstrom for the next decade.

Even with the Backstrom signing, you could call what the Caps have done to date, “housekeeping” (quite literally, as all the signings are of the “in house” variety). But for all the grief being heaped on the Caps for retaining the services of Boyd Gordon, for showering Jeff Schultz with $11 million over the next four years, for failing to sign any (let alone any “good”) free agents to play in Washington, you would think that the team was going to start the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs next week. Well, to that, I say this…

“Three months.”

Three months from today – 92 days, to be precise – the Caps will raise the curtain on their 2010-2011 season. At the moment the Caps have 17 players that I would consider locks to be on the opening night roster signed and ready to go. You, dear reader, might argue that Mathieu Perreault will be on that roster, or Marcus Johansson. I won’t go that far just yet. But the point is that the Caps (and a lot of other teams) still have work to do and 92 days in which to do it. They have 92 days to complete their “to-do” list…

- Deal with the remaining restricted free agents on their own team: Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann, Andrew Gordon, among them.

- Find a sixth defenseman to complement Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Tom Poti, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner. Hopefully, that defenseman will: a) be a respected veteran, b) with Stanley Cup playoff experience, and c) who has more than a little attitude to his game.

- Find (or settle on) a second line center. At the moment, the thought of Tomas Fleischmann, Mathieu Perreault, or Brooks Laich assuming that role does not fill our heart with a warm and glowing feeling. More like acid reflux. But the Caps have people being paid handsome sums to evaluate the performance and the promise of their own players, as well as cast about for talent from other organizations to fill that role. They might need all 92 days to arrive at this decision.

- We are going to put “come to a decision about Alexander Semin” on this list, too, because we – and this is the “fan” in us speaking (as opposed to someone who actually knows what they are talking about) – don’t get that warm and glowing feeling about a player as mercurial as Semin slogging through a contract year with the attendant uncertainty about what will happen at the end of it. He could be really, really good… or he could be really, really bad. Perhaps worse, he could be really, really inconsistent, and given the attitude of Caps Nation toward Semin at the end of last year, that could take an ugly turn. Commit to him, or don’t.

Having once upon a time been a teacher, we are not inclined to give the Caps a grade for the off-season, not even a “mid-term” grade (the “mid-term” of the off season does not come until later this month). That’s not to say they should get a pass, either. A team that disappoints so spectacularly at the end of the season can’t stand pat and expect the fan base to squeal with glee. And that seems especially true given the uniformity of opinion with respect to what the Caps need, both among fans and pundits.

So here it is… It’s still early in the off-season. There are free agents available, there are arbitrations to be heard and judged, there are teams with cap problems who might make for suitable trading partners, and there might be other tricks up the sleeves of management to fill out the rest of the roster. There are three months to work with. But perhaps as important as that, there will then be almost five more months to evaluate that product and make additional changes on the roster in advance of the trading deadline early next year. So fans… lighten up. And you there, the ones in the suits… the fans are watching. Don’t waste this time, because in the end, with respect to the roster – you built it, you bought it, you own it – its successes and its failures. And having lost three of the last four playoff series you’ve played in, the words “benefit” and “doubt” don’t occupy the same sentence.

Last Year and This

By this time last year -- through July 6th -- 44 free agents had been signed with new teams. This year that number is 45. Not much difference there. Ah, but look closer…

This year we are seeing shorter average contracts in terms of years and smaller cap hits. The first reaction we have to this is that it is a reflection of a somewhat inferior free agent class. The 2009 free agent class also had seven players getting contracts of at least five years in length (including the whopper of a 12-year deal signed by Marian Hossa in Chicago). This year that number is four, and none for more than six years (Dan Hamhuis and Anton Volchenkov).

Also, there were six deals signed in 2009 that carried an annual salary cap hit of at least $5.0 million. This year – two (Paul Martin and Sergei Gonchar).

These are things to keep in mind in the days ahead as Caps fans gnash their teeth over the club not signing free agents. There just isn’t a lot out there, and the guys who are paid to make those decisions and arrive at those conclusions are voting with their pens… they’re not handing them over to players to sign big deals.

Summer Rush

We are into Week 2 of the Great 2010 Free Agent Rush, and the term ”rush” makes us think that the Caps are going about this whole free agency signing thing all wrong. No one is signing up. Maybe they're too good for these guys.  It’s like rush at Omega House. You know…

“George McPhee, Omega membership chairman.”

“Anton Kroger. This is my blue line partner, Kent Martin.”

McPhee: “These are our name-tag hostesses, Mandy Pepperidge and Babs Jansen.”

Mandy: “Hi there, Anton. Hi, Kent. Welcome to Omega house.”

McPhee: “Why don't we go meet some of the guys? There are many great guys here, so don't feel you have to meet everyone. We just want you to enjoy yourselves while you're here… Hi there, fellows. Meet Ken and Tony.”

Anton: “Anton.”

McPhee: "Ken, Tony, l'd like you to meet... Tomas... Boyd, Ersky, and Tyler.”

*****

Maybe it would have worked better if…

Anton: “Excuse me, sir. Is this the Kettler house?”

Mike “Bluto” Green: “Sure. Come on in. Grab a brew… Don't cost nothing.”

Martin: “My name is Kent Martin.”

Eric “Otter” Stratvechkin: “Eric Stratvechkin, rush chairman. Damn glad to meet you.”

Nicklas “Boon” Backstrom: “That was Eric Stratvechkin. He was damn glad to meet you.”

Otter: “Damn glad to meet you. Nice tie! Is that a clip-on? Boon, come check this out.”

Boon: “Excuse me. Pardon me… Ninety percent rayon! Very nice.”

Otter: “Did your mother buy that?”

Martin: “Yes.”

Boon: “Kent is a legacy, Otter. His teammate was Dainius Zubrus.

Martin: “He said legacies get asked to sign automatically.”

Otter: “Usually, unless the pledge in question is a real closet case, like Dainius.”

Martin: “My teammate.”

Otter: “I liked the tie.”

Boon: “Great tie.”

Later...

Mike Knuble: "Anton Kroger. All in favor."

(All cheering)

Matt Bradley: "We need the bodies."

Knuble: "Good. Anton Kroger is now a pledge to Kettler house. Next slide, please."

(All screaming, booing)

Knuble: "Just a minute! Just settle down! This is Kent Martin. He's a legacy from New Jersey.

(All screaming)

Otter: "Now wait a minute! Okay, this guy is a real zero. That's true. Think back to when you were rookies. Boon, you had a face like a pepperoni pizza, right? And Gordon here. Everybody thought that Gordon was brain damaged. I myself was so obnoxious with those goal celebrations... the veterans shaving creamed me once a week. So this guy is a total loser? Let me tell you the story of another loser...

booooooooooooooooooooooooo...

All Quiet on Fun Street....And That's a Good Thing

We’re about to head into the Fourth of July holiday weekend, and before the cousins go off to see what they can blow up over the next few days, we caught up with them to talk about the first two days of free agency and what the Caps…

“The Caps signed someone?”

No, Cheerless, the Caps didn’t sign anyone.

“Well, cuz, there is Dany Sabourin.”

“Hey, what happened to the other ‘n?’”

What’s that, Cheerless?

“The other ‘n’… what happened to it?”

I don’t follow.

“Shouldn’t ‘Dany’ have two ‘n’s?’”

Guess he doesn’t use the other “n.”

“That makes two Sabourin’s that have been in the Caps’ organization, Ken being the other one.”

“Lemme guess…that’s a record.”

“Nope, two Sabourin’s played in the Maple Leafs’ organization – Bob and Gary.”

Guys… free agency? The last couple of days? Can we focus?

“Focus on what? The Caps haven’t done anything.”

Now, now… it’s early.

“Yeah, cuz, there’s…. what, nine months until hockey season starts, right?”

It starts in October, Cheerless.

“I think he means playoff season, cuz… right?”

“uh, yeah, sure… that’s what I meant.”

Well, anyway, what do you think of the Caps being quiet so far?

“Given what some of those free agents are signing for, the Caps would have to be nuts to have outbid those teams for those players.”

What do you mean, Fearless?

“OK, the Caps need a second-line center. You know that, doofus over here knows that, even John Wall knows that. But who is out there? Olli Jokinen? Three million a year for a guy who has gone from 91 points to 71 to 57 to 50 over four seasons. You want him centering your second line? And then there is Matthew Lombardi. Might have been a good fit here, but three-and-a-half million for a guy who has topped 50 points once in six seasons? Makes that $2.8 million for Mike Knuble last year look like a real bargain.”

“Tell ‘em about the defensemen, cuz.”

“Six years for Anton Volchenkov? OK, so he’s 28. Look at this history I found over at tsn.ca…

2010/04/01 Missed 1 game (upper body injury).
2010/01/26 Missed 1 game (upper body injury).
2009/12/01 Missed 14 games (dislocated right elbow).
2009/01/27 Missed 9 games (shoulder injury).
2009/01/03 Missed 3 games (upper body injury).
2008/12/19 Missed 2 games (lower body injury).
2008/01/04 Missed 15 games (broken finger).
2007/04/03 Missed 1 game (headache).
2007/01/13 Missed 1 game (ankle injury).
2006/11/30 Missed 2 games (lower body injury).
2006/05/11 Missed Game 3 of Round Two against the Buffalo Sabres (head injury).
2006/04/08 Missed 2 games (neck injury).
2006/03/30 Missed 3 games (slight concussion).
2005/11/05 Missed 2 games (rib injury).
2004/03/31 Missed 52 games (shoulder surgery).
2003/11/13 Missed 7 games (concussion).
2003/04/12 Missed the last 7 games of the regular season and Game One of Round One against the New York Islanders.
2003/03/13 Missed 5 games (left leg injury).
2003/01/08 Missed 6 games (dental surgery).

"Yeah, he’s costing the Devils $4.25 million a year – less than a lot of folks thought he might go for – but that doesn’t include what you’re paying that guy who is going to be in his place for 15 games, either.”

I take it he’s not the only one…

“Jordan Leopold… $3 million a year for what, exactly? He’s been a minus player at every stop – Calgary (twice), Florida, Colorado. OK, he was a plus player in 20 games at Pittsburgh. Color us unimpressed. At least not impressed to the tune of $3 million a year.”

And?

“The Penguins bought Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek. They’re going to pay their top four defensemen $16.25 million next year. They are $2 million under the salary cap and aren’t bringing back a winger who had as many as 40 points last year. On a team with Crosby and Malkin?”

And?

“Henrik Tallinder… nice player. $3.4 million nice? $5.5 million for Sergei Gonchar, who will be 39 in the last year of that deal?”

“Geez, cuz… you’re on a roll.”

“For heaven’s sake, look at the top seven defensemen signed so far – they just so happen to have the seven biggest contracts in total dollars. Those seven defensemen will average $4.2 million a year for the 33 total years of their contracts.”

And?

“See any all-stars in that group.”

“Well, there is that Gonchar guy.”

“Yeah… in 2008. Fat chance he repeats that in Ottawa.”

What’s your point, cuz?

“There is a real disconnect between what many of these players are worth and what they signed for. Nice players in some respects, but paying a second pair defenseman top-two money? And frankly, once you get past Kovalchuk, this forward class is really, really thin.”

I see your point.

“What were Caps fans expecting, given these signings? They have almost $17 million in cap room and ten roster spots to fill, according to the folks at capgeek.com, if you assume Tyler Sloan is not on the parent roster in October. They have to make signing decisions on Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Tomas Flesichmann, Jeff Schultz, and Andrew Gordon. All of them could be on the opening night roster, and so could Mathieu Perreault. That would be consistent with the aim of promoting from within, and the Caps might have 20-21 roster spots encumbered with maybe $7 million or so in cap room.

“But then again, the Caps will have decisions to make on Alexander Semin, Brooks Laich, Mike Knuble, Matt Bradley, and Tom Poti next summer, not to mention the kiddie goaltenders coming up for renewal. Doesn’t mean the Caps need to worry about the cap space this year as much as term regarding any potential free agents. They can’t have much in the way of long term contracts hamstringing their ability to keep their own – and in many cases better – players.”

I guess in the end, relying too much of free agents is at best a two-edged sword. You’re getting good players – although this seems like a lackluster class, in general – but you’re almost certainly going to overpay. Sometimes you do it because you have a hole, and you don’t have a remedy in your own system. A Mike Knuble for example last year, and you could make a case for the Penguins signing a Michalek or a Martin (although the Penguins signing both leaves them no room to address their winger problem). But it’s almost as if some teams saw that the cap went up by a couple million dollars, and they thought they had to spend the new found money.

We get that the off season has barely started. There are a number of free agents that might yet be a decent fit for the Caps, which is why we cannot get all bent out of shape over the Caps being quiet through the first two days. With signings – of their own RFAs and whatever unrestricted free agents they might acquire – and trades yet to come over the next three months, plus figuring out how their own pieces will fit into their plans for the fall, it’s hard to reach a judgment on how the Caps have done based on two days of work.

Spending Day One Window Shopping

About a third of the teams in the NHL sat out signing any unrestricted free agents of note yesterday. The Washington Capitals were one of them. It was as if they were out on the sidewalk gazing in at the sparkling toys and gifts in the window, knowing full well that they were not going to head into the store to make any purchases. Was it surprising? Was it the right thing to do? Well, looking at the individual players that might have been on the Caps radar, let’s look first at the defense and what they signed for...

Anton Volchenkov -- 6yrs/$4.25M average salary
Paul Martin -- 5/$5.0M
Zbynek Michalek -- 5/$4.0M
Dan Hamhuis -- 6/$4.5M
Sergei Gonchar -- 3/$5.5M

Verdict?... Look at the terms. Like it or not, the Caps just don't do long term FA deals for other teams’ players, and there was little chance (based on that history, at least), that the Caps were going to offer up five or more years for the younger defensemen on this list. Since the lockout, the Caps have signed two noteworthy defensemen via free agency – Brian Pothier (four years, $10 million) and Tom Poti (four years, $14 million). It is just not the Caps M.O. to go long on terms for UFAs.

Centers:

Saku Koivu – 2 yrs/$5.0M average salary (make that $2.5M)
Matt Cullen – 3/$3.5M
Matthew Lombardi (not yet signed)
Mike Modano (not yet signed)

There are those who will argue that the situation at center – that being who will center the second line – is a more urgent problem to be addressed by the Caps. At the moment, the candidates for that slot would be: Tomas Fleischmann, Brooks Laich, and Mathiew Perreault. All are capable players in some respect, or (in the case of Perreault) have the promise to be such a player.  None of those possibilities is going to strike fear in the hearts of opponents as a second-line center, even if the Caps are returning the most prolific offense in the NHL for the 2010-2011 season.

As for the players who signed, we think the term for Saku Koivu would have been friendly for the Caps, but $5.0 million just isn’t something that makes a lot of sense, given the Caps’ existing salary structure (edit: well, it wouldn't at that price, but at $2.5 million -- as a commenter pointed out -- it might have been nice). As for Cullen, he’s a nice player in a lot of respects, but he is also a player stuck in the 45-50 point range for the last half-dozen seasons or so, and he will be 34 a month after next season starts. Think he’s going to be a 50-60 point player for the Caps for three years? We are not sold on that conclusion. As for the others, either would likely be an upgrade to what the Caps have to ice right now (although whether Modano would be is not a certainty in that respect; he’s averaged about 50 pts/season since the lockout). This just points how very thin the group of centers the Caps is, at least until Marcus Johansson, or perhaps Mathieu Perreault, are ready to assume the role behind Nicklas Backstrom.

The Caps almost certainly will not go through July without signing a free agent (ok, it looks like they signed Dany Sabourin). They might even sign one today. But it is not a certainty. The fact is, the Caps sign their own soon-to-be free agents to long term deals (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green). They don’t sign other teams’ free agents to such deals. Their sweet spot for free agents seems to be the second or third tier player at a modest salary to fill a role for a limited term.  Like it or not (and we subscribe to this view), that has been a part of “the plan.” It is not surprising, then, that the Caps did not sign any of these defensemen or centers. It would seem that the Caps have cast their lot in trying out their farm hands for more responsible positions and waiting for trades to shore up deficiencies.

For the record, we think spending lavishly on high-end free agents (and this looks like a thin crop this year) is a fool’s errand in almost all cases. Teams overpay for talent for too long a term that ends up being something of a burden at some point. But as for sitting out Day One being the right thing to do, if Volchenkov wins a Cup in New Jersey, if Hamhuis wins one in Vancouver, or – heaven forbid – Martin and Michalek win a Cup in Pittsburgh before the Caps win one, then at best you would have to question whether the Caps’ plan – either in concept or execution – has a Stanley Cup sitting at the end of it.

Merry FreeAgentmas

It’s July 1st… UFAmas… FreeAgentmas… ShowMeTheMoneymas.

Otherwise known as the first day of the unrestricted free agent signing period in the NHL. And, as you might expect, the cousins are excited as Ralphie and Randy in “A Christmas Story.” Seems as though they even have a toy to help us get through that day, right cous…

“Hey, a Magic 8-Ball… that’s mine.”

“Hush, Cheerless… that’s a finely tuned instrument of prognostication.”

OK, guys, today’s the day. Starting at noon, we’ll be inundated with tweets about free agents signing hither and yon.

“Hey cuz… doesn’t Yon play for the Islanders?”

“That’s Bi-ron, you doofus.”

Alright, that’s enough… why don’t we get right to it and put this 8-ball to work. Will the Caps be active in the market today?

Hey, right off the bat… You try one, Fearless.

“OK, will the Caps sign a defenseman?”

Looks good so far… Let’s try and be more specific? Will it be Anton Volchenkov?

Hmm… Cuz, you try?

“Do I have a shot at dating Megan Fox?”

"HEY!... We’re discussing NHL free agents, not your warped fantasy life. Try again…"

“OK, will it be Willie Mitchell (he ain’t near as good lookin’….)?

That might make some Caps fans happy… what about a center for the second line, does the 8-ball see anything on that score?

Hmm… Cuz?

“Will it be Saku Koivu?”

Concentrate and ask again? OK… will it be Saku Koivu?

“Ask later, huh… I think yer 8-ball is broke, cuz.”

“Never mind that… ask another question.”

“Are we gonna get Vince Lombardi?”

“Don’t you mean ‘Matthew?’”

“Vince Matthew?”

“NO, you idiot… oh, never mind… will it Matthew Lombardi?”

“Reply hazy… I’m a’tellin’ ya, the thing’s broke.”

“Well, what do you suggest?”

“If’n yer 8-ball is broke, I say, try good ol’ Number 7!”

Wise man, that Cheerless. Merry FreeAgentmas, Caps fans.

An Unforseen Problem When Buying a New Team

The Boss posted a blog entry earlier today titled, "I Can't Comment."  In it, he states...

"Team owners and officials can’t comment on free agency or free agents.


This is a good article. I thought it was pretty spot on.


We have articulated our plan. We are in control of our own destiny as a franchise. We have a lot of work to do to rebuild a foundation around young players — to heal, and to create a new winning culture. We have to do the work. We have to create our own upside. There is no easy magic wand to wave to make us a great team. I will have to be honest and authentic to our fan base on these matters.


But we will be in control of our destiny, and it won’t be a random plan. It won’t be filled with empty promises, and with “the best laid plans” built around unknown and third parties.


We just executed a trade that fits into our plan. We received a young player — a player with size, skill, and upside."

A young player with size?  Skill?  Upside?  I almost made a mad dash for the exits to hop over to the Caps web site to see for whom the club traded.  Good thing I didn't, for here is the rest of the entry...

"A player who can shoot, and run the floor for a big man. A player with unique potential. A player who is working hard this off season to improve. Another small piece has been added to rebuild our team to be a better and more competitive team for next season. A good day’s work. Real. Authentic. Honest."

Had I not known that "run the floor for a big man" was a basketball reference, I might have spent the rest of the day searching for who it was the Caps traded for, and for whom. 

Uh, Boss?  Might want to let your readers know up front it's basketball you're talking about.  You're going to give us Caps fans heart attacks doing that.

Speaking "McPhee"

In barely 24 hours, the clock will start on the signing period for unrestricted free agents. Fans of the Washington Capitals might have visions of an Ilya Kovalchuk or a Anton Volchenkov pulling on a Caps red sweater come October, but it is unlikely in the extreme that such will ever happen. George McPhee splashed cold water on that in remarks in Tarik El-Bashir’s “Capitals Insider” this morning.

While it is always good to get the scoop straight from the horse’s (or in this case, GM’s) mouth, it helps to speak “McPhee,” too. Fortunately, we have completed the Rosetta Stone CD lessons in “General Manager” (after “French” and before “German” in the index of titles, but you have to look hard), so as a bonus for our readers, let’s see what he really meant in his comments…

What he said… "We'll be involved but I don't expect to do a whole lot. We're in a great position right now where we have a good team. So rather than getting seduced into signing three- or four-year deals, we believe we have young people who are ready to go."

What he meant… “Two year deals, $5 million… max.”


What he said… "We think we have centers that are ready to go. There's Mathieu Perreault who's fairly close, if not ready to go. We like what we've seen from [Marcus] Johansson. A year from now [first-round draft pick Evgeny] Kuznetsov might be ready to play. Cody Eakin might be ready to go in a year. So we want to be really careful not get drawn into any long-term deals at that position. The issue is, are they ready this year or next?”

What he meant… Two year deals, $5 million… max.


What he said… "Rather than do a deal we don't like and come to regret it six months from now, we would probably be more inclined to go with our drafted players. And, in fact, they look a lot better than what's out there right now. Why wouldn't you play Perreault? He's a really talented young player."

What he meant… “Any takers for Perreault?”


What he said… "If they're not better than Perreault or [Tomas] Fleischmann, why do it?"

What he meant… “Any takers for Fleischmann?”


What he said… "We don't have to spend [the remaining cap room]. You don't ever want to go into the season right up against the cap. Ideally, you put a good team on the ice and you have room."

What he meant… “Two years, $5 million… max.”


What he said… “There's not much out there [in this year’s free agent class]."

What he meant… “…maybe $4.5 million… max.”


What he said… "We're going with our young goaltenders. They're both 22 years old now and they've got a couple of years of pro under their belts. Varly's played two years at the NHL level and Neuvirth has won two Calder Cups and got an MVP. They're blue-chip prospects. It could become a real strength of our team and our organization.”

What he meant… “Nashville took Kostitsyn instead of Fleischmann.”


What he said… "We actually think this is going to be good for both of them because there isn't going to be the pressure on either one of them to play 65 games. It's an opportunity for both of them to play more games at the NHL level without the pressure of trying to carry the team. We think it's a great situation to be able to platoon a couple of very good young goaltenders."

What he meant… “They’d better not suck.”


What he said… “We probably won't make any changes to our defense. We've got seven guys ready to go."

What he meant… “To the Islanders, to the Blue Jackets, to freakin’ Edmonton if they pull another one-and-done in April.”


What he said… "I don't think any deals are imminent [with any of the important RFAs]"

What he meant… “I don’t think any deals are imminent.”


What he said… “[We expect to talk to Eric Belanger’s representatives] in the next 24 hours."

What he meant… “na-na-na-na...na-na-na-na... hey-ey-ey... go-o-o-od-bye...”

It's almost July, and that means...

In the United States, Independence Day is July 4th. In the NHL, it is July 1st, the day on which a lot of players will have the freedom to sign with whomever they choose among the 30 teams in the NHL. What might the Capitals do when it strikes noon Eastern time on July 1st? Will they bid for Ilya Kovalchuk? Well, of course not – the salary cap does have its limitations. But there are a lot of potential free agents out there that might fit the Caps’ budget. Will they fit the Caps’ grand design, though?

You might get a feeling for what the Caps might do by looking at their history. Specifically, their history in signing unrestricted free agents in the early-signing period, which for our purposes means July. Beginning with 2000, the Caps have signed 31 free agents in the month of July, as follows…

shaded: currently on Caps roster (OK...so is Nylander, but he's not going to be playing any games at Verizon Center with the Caps)

See any patterns in here?  The 2000-2009 period breaks into three distinct periods. The first looks an awful lot like a “marking time” signing group associated with the three signings in 2000. Both Sylvain Cote and Craig Berube were returning for their second tours with the Caps; both were 34 years old when signed this time around. In that first year after signing, Cote finished third in scoring among defensemen, but far behind Sergei Gonchar (57 points) and Calle Johansson (36) in that department. It’s more than Berube accomplished, as the burly winger was traded to the New York Islanders at mid-season to Vancouver for a ninth-round draft pick. Berube dressed for only 22 games before moving on. Todd Rohloff spent that entire year following his signing in Portland of the AHL, then had a difficult 2001-2002 season, one limited to 16 games with the Caps due to an ankle injury. It was not a memorable free agency class.

The second major group might be called, “The Jagr Group” covering the next two seasons. After trading for Pittsburgh’s Jaromir Jagr in July 2001, then signing him to a long-term contract extension, the first group of free agency signings that followed appeared to have been with surrounding him with help in mind. Robert Lang was signed as a scoring center; Kip Miller was inked as more or less Jagr’s designated linemate. Both Lang and Miller played reasonably well in that first year, but the 2002-2003 season was an excruciatingly disappointing one, ending with a six-game loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round of the playoffs.

The second part of that “Jagr” era of free agent signings – those of July 2003 – was as clear an indicator one could imagine that the Caps knew this whole Jagr thing wasn’t working. Andrej Podkonicky, Garret Stroshien, and John Gruden are not names that any but the most obsessed Caps fan will recognize (at least not without prodding such as our just having typed their names). Their combined 16 games, one point, and minus-3 are a stark reminder that the Caps were: a) in the process of being reduced to the functional equivalent of an expansion team, and b) were beginning to act on that (they would blow up the parent roster over the course of the 2003-2004 season). If the first group of free agency signings was not memorable, this group might be noteworthy, not necessarily for the names, but for the turbulent history in which the signings were executed.

The third group – the post lockout group – gives an inkling of what one might expect when the clock starts on 2010 free agency on Thursday. Eight signings in 2006 had the look of a two-pronged strategy. First, signing Brian Pothier wasn’t especially newsworthy in the larger context of the league’s big signings (it was the summer of Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard, to name two bigger signings). But it provided at least a measure of credibility after the rookie season of Alex Ovechkin that the Capitals were serious about building a competitive roster.

Caps fans will no doubt argue that Pothier was not an impact signing, but it helps to look at this as a process. The Caps just introduced Alex Ovechkin to the NHL, but the team on which he was playing was a weak one. A high-end signing, if it ever makes sense, would not make sense here. There were simply too many holes in the lineup for the Caps to invest top money to a free agent. It might be the difference between 70 standings points (their finish in 2005-2006, arguably a pleasantly overachieving one at the time) and 80 points in that next season. Better, but not enough to make the playoffs. The Brashear signing had the look of having Ovechkin – and his protection – in mind. In that respect, Brashear was as advertised in terms of his pugnaciousness, but given the changes in the game coming out of the lockout, the role of the enforcer was being called into question.

It is in the other six signings that the other part of the strategy was revealed. The Caps came out of the lockout with a newly minted number one overall draft pick on the parent roster, and they were also going forth with a new relationship with an AHL farm club. The Caps switched their affiliation from that with the Portland Pirates to one with the Hershey Bears in 2005. Alexandre Giroux, Chad Wiseman, and Quintin Laing all would be top-ten scorers for the Bears in the 2006-2007 season, and Dean Arsene would return to the Bears (where he played since 2004) and become such a fixture with the Bears that he earned the nickname “Mayor of Chocolatetown.” These signings served to cement a relationship between the NHL and AHL ends of a partnership.

2007 – crank things up a notch in terms of the quality of free agency signings and the objective in doing it. The outlook for the 2007-2008 Caps team was one of, well, they might challenge for a playoff spot, but they are probably at least a year away from that. One of the reasons for that was that they had some rather serious holes remaining both up front and on the blue line. Among the forwards, they had a known (if still green) commodity in Alex Ovechkin, but then a rookie (Nicklas Backstrom), a player still something of an unknown (Alexander Semin), and a young guys in roles of growing responsibility (Brooks Laich, Tomas Fleischmann). Viktor Kozlov was not a high end signing (this was the Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Daniel Briere summer), but he filled a role – providing a measure of stability on the scoring lines. Ditto Michael Nylander, who could also provide something of a mentoring role for Backstrom.

On the back line, the Caps were even greener than at forward. Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Milan Jurcina. These three, with Brian Pothier, might have been thrown into top-four roles on a 70-point team of the sort the Caps were coming out of the lockout, but the club had progressed past that point. Even Brian Pothier had only two full seasons as an NHL starter. The signing of a free agent to fill a role and provide some veteran perspective made sense here. That defenseman would be Tom Poti. He was not the top-end sort of free agent that was available (like, say, Brian Rafalski), but he had eight full years of experience and could provide solid minutes for a blue-line corps that needed experience as much as anything else.

Having made the playoffs in 2007-2008, expectations were raised for the next edition of the Caps. Add to that the fact that the clock was running on the contracts of Alex Ovechkin and other youngsters, and one might have felt a bit more pressure in the 2008 off-season to fill what holes remained on the roster – and there still were holes. None, perhaps, were bigger than the hole at goaltender. The Caps had a somewhat messy divorce with long-time netminder Olaf Kolzig the previous spring, and Cristobal Huet – the hero of the 2008 stretch run – ended up taking an offer with the Chicago Blackhawks shortly after the free agency signing period began. That necessitated a “Plan B,” and that plan was executed in the signing of Jose Theodore. The former Hart and Vezina Trophy winner had a resume, but also something of a damaged reputation. His performance with the Montreal Canadiens after winning his pair of trophies was disappointing, and he was shipped to Colorado, where he was quite inconsistent. His role in signing with Washington was to win games, sure. But it also was to hold the number one goaltending job until such time as the pair of 2006 draft picks – Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth – were ready to take over. Theodore provided largely solid goaltending in both of his years in Washington. Unfortunately, he also displayed some of the inconsistency he displayed in his later tenure in Montreal and in Colorado and the playoff problems he had with the Avalanche.

Which brings us to the 2009 signings – Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison. Again, there were top end free agents available (such as Marian Hossa), but each of Knuble and Morrison addressed a specific weakness. Knuble would address the lack of ability on the part of the Caps to score goals from in close. He built a solid resume as being just the sort of large-frame, hard-working player who would go into traffic, plant himself in front of the net, and score the ugliest goals imaginable. He could host hockey’s version of “Dirty Jobs.” Morrison was taken as a “low-risk/high-reward” sort of signing, a player with a recent history of injuries that depressed his value, but who did have a history of being able to center a first or second line. With Nicklas Backstrom solidly entrenched as the Caps number one center, Morrison would fill the void created by Sergei Fedorov, who signed with the KHL after his contract expired with the Caps.

Especially in the post-lockout period, you can see a pattern to the Caps’ free agency signings. They do not sign (make offers?... that’s another issue) high-end free agents. If a club is going to rely on the draft and draft players with the expectation that they be cornerstones for a decade or more, then that team cannot sign the high end free agent. They could never fill a roster that way. Having Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green all on their second contracts next season and in the fold for the rest of the decade in the case of Ovechkin and Backstrom makes “value” free agents signed to play a role on comparatively short contracts the pattern that has emerged.

And, the Caps will take risks in their signings. Morrison was signed with injury issues. Theodore was signed with consistency issues. Kozlov had the label of “underachiever.” And here is where a blemish appears in the Caps recent free agency signing history. Kozlov had one good season and one poor one, and then left for Russia. Morrison started hot, faded badly, and was almost an afterthought by the end of his one season in Washington. Theodore never really did shake either his penchant for inconsistency or his playoff problems (pulled as number one goaltender twice in two playoff seasons).

The Caps might very well go after a player of mid-range value with some risk attached – a Willie Mitchell, for instance, to shore up the blue line. They could go for a player to fill a specific role – a Matthew Lombardi, perhaps, to assume the number two center duties. But if Caps fans are thinking, hoping, praying that they will sign an Ilya Kovalchuk? Far beyond the Caps’ ability to pay. An Anton Volchenkov? Perhaps too much money to commit to a single free agent? A Dan Hamhuis? Given how the Caps approach free agency, we have doubts Hamhuis would be in the market for a three-year deal.

According to capgeek.com, the Caps have about $15.5 million in cap room and nine roster spots to fill. Some of those spots will be filled by re-signing their own restricted free agents (some of whom, such as Eric Fehr, Jeff Schultz, and Tomas Fleischmann, could get substantial raises). As a practical matter, one might expect that between those re-signings and some promotions from Hershey, there are three or four roster spots available (a second line center, a defenseman or two, perhaps a backup goaltender). There simply isn’t enough money available, or inclination for that matter, for the Caps to sign a high-end free agent in this class. They seem once more likely to go after the role player on a short-term (three years or fewer) contract that is consistent with building from the core out with players that are more or less interchangeable in those roles.

It might not be exciting, but if it ends in a Stanley Cup, no one will be complaining. However, that rumble of thunder in the background is that the Caps have implemented this strategy over the past several years with rather mixed results. Stay tuned.

She Did It Again!

Every time Lucy puts that football down, and every time she yanks it away just as Charlie Brown is going to kick it. So it is with trades and the NHL draft. Every year, it is the year when we are going to see a lot of trades around draft time, and every year it fails to materialize to any degree approaching what folks anticipate.

This year, from Monday through Saturday, there were a total of nine deals that involved players for players or players for picks (collected from the transactions posted at tsn.ca):

- Minnesota acquired right wing Brad Staubitz from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a fifth-round pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft.

- Boston acquired forwards Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell from the Florida Panthers in exchange for defenseman Dennis Wideman, a first-round pick in the 2010 Draft and a third-round pick in 2011.

- Edmonton acquired forward Colin Fraser from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for a sixth-round pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft.

- St. Louis acquired the 16th pick in the 2010 draft from the Ottawa Senators for defenseman David Rundblad.

- Chicago acquired forward Jimmy Hayes from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for the 43rd pick in the 2010 draft.

- Carolina acquired forward Riley Nash from the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for the 46th pick in the 2010 draft.

- Carolina acquired defenseman Bobby Sanguinetti from the New York Rangers in exchange for a sixth-round pick in the 2010 draft and Washington's second-round draft pick in 2011.

- Carolina acquired forward Jonathan Matsumoto from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Washington's seventh-round pick in the 2010 draft.

- Boston acquired defenseman David Warsofsky from the St. Louis Blues for center Vladimir Sobotka.

Good thing Carolina did more than its share (and that Washington Capitals picks found a home).  Combined, these deals might register a 2.5 on the NHL Richter scale (no, not Mike Richter) – generally not felt, but recorded. And, if not for the Boston-Florida deal, seismometers would have a hard time recording the effect of these trades.

Everyone seems to have short memories in this regard – journalists, fans, and those of us who scribble at keyboards (in a manner of speaking) in our spare time. When will we learn?

Well, at least we have the week ahead, when teams will sign that one free agent that will put them over the top and…

Damn! Fell for it again!!

Every Draft a Snowflake

Every draft is like a snowflake, each different and special in its own way. And that tempers our remarks here, which address a component of the Caps governing philosophy concerning personnel. The draft is an important, if not the most important, part of stocking and re-stocking talent on the parent roster. It is the engine that will make them a perennial contender for the Stanley Cup, according to the game plan.

The flip side of that is the fact that if successful, the Caps will find themselves having their first draft pick coming in the 25-30 range every year (absent trades). It’s next to impossible to find a franchise player at that point of the draft. Finding a contributor in this range (a top-four defenseman, a top-six forward, a sturdy grinder who does all the detail things well) is a hit-or-miss proposition.

Starting with 2000, when the NHL had its first 30-team rounds in the draft, let’s look at the nine drafts that followed (we leave out 2009, since none of those players have yet to dress in an NHL game). All-in-all, 54 players were selected in those nine drafts in the 25-30 range (data from hockeydb.com):

Of this group, 19 are defensemen, 16 are centers, 12 are forward/wingers, and seven are goaltenders. Looking at the centers, it is plain that finding a top-six level of player in this draft range is rare, at least in the post-2000 period. Steve Ott and Brian Sutherby have played the most games of this group (owing to their being drafted earliest in this sample), and neither is a first or second line center. In a curious twist of fate, both find themselves on the same team, Sutherby having moved from Washington to Anaheim to the Stars. Ott has done some moving of his own, having been moved out of the center spot to primarily winger responsibility. Both might be better described at this stage of their careers as grinders. In fact, “grinders” seems to be the path for centers drafted in this range – Jim Slater and David Steckel have logged more than 200 games apiece in this role.

After that, disappointment (or at least delayed success) seems to be the thing that jumps to mind here regarding centers. Adrian Foster, a 2001 draft pick of the New Jersey Devils, has never played a game in the NHL and spent the last two seasons in Europe. Rob Schremp was drafted as a player of considerable individual skill, but has never crashed through to become an NHL regular. He has bounced back and forth between the NHL and AHL, compiling 51 games of NHL experience over three different seasons. He did dress for 44 games with the Islanders last year, however. At age 23, it certainly isn’t impossible that Schremp could find himself getting top-six minutes at some point, but he’s got something of a road ahead of him to get there. Patrick White, originally drafted by Vancouver in 2007, was traded to San Jose in 2009. He just completed his junior year at the University of Minnesota, where he finished 9-8-17 (seventh in team scoring) in 39 games. He does not appear to project higher than a third liner in the NHL, which is not to say this is a bad way to make a living, only that it reinforces the idea that finding top end talent in this range is an iffy proposition.

Among the forwards/wingers, there seem to exist a few more players who have put together solid careers. No player among the 54 at all positions in this group has played more games than the 552 logged by Justin Williams. The flip side of that, however, is that he has done it with three different teams (Philadelphia, Carolina, and Los Angeles), suggesting that he is a player of talent, but not so much that he can’t be used as a trading asset (he was traded twice in his career, the primary returns being Danny Markov and Patrick O’Sullivan). Injuries have no doubt limited his contributions as well.

Then there is a Corey Perry – a 2003 draft pick of the Anaheim Ducks. Perry has carved out quite a niche for himself with the Ducks, netting 118 goals in 368 career games (averaging almost 30 a season over the past three years) and getting a reputation for being a player who is very difficult to play against.

At the other end of the spectrum are Martin Samuelsson and Jonas Johansson. Samuelsson – a 27th overall pick for the Bruins in 2000 – played only 14 games in the NHL, none since 2004. After the 2004-2005 season, which he spent with the Providence Bruins, he returned to Europe to play in Sweden, his career ending in 2008. Johansson – a 28th overall pick of the Avalanche in 2002 – played only one game in the NHL, that coming with Washington in the 2005-2006 season. His NHL career lasted barely four minutes (in a 4-1 win over Tampa Bay on April 18, 2006), the only note on his scoresheet being an interference penalty he took. After spending the 2006-2007 season in the AHL (with Hershey and Grand Rapids) he signed with HV71 Jonkoping in Sweden.

Defensemen present an interesting case, especially for those drafted before the NHL returned from the 2004-2005 lockout. There are 12 defensemen in that group, four of whom have played in at least 200 games. And this group is not an also-ran group of defensemen. They include: Niklas Kronwall (29th overall to Detroit in 2000), Jeff Schultz (27th overall to Washington in 2004), Mike Green (29th overall to Washington in 2004), and Matt Niskanen (28th overall to Dallas in 2005). And, all four are still with the teams that drafted them.

By the same token, there are some disappointments here and others you have to start to wonder about. Martin Vagner was drafted 26th overall by Dallas in 2002 and never played a game of professional hockey in North America. After being drafted by the Stars, he played another three seasons in the QMJHL (with three different teams, it might be noted), during which re-entered the NHL draft in 2004 (selected by Carolina), then went to Europe to play in the Czech league. He played for three different teams in three years there as well. There is probably something in that.

Of more recent vintage is Andy Rogers, a 30th overall pick of the Lightning in 2004. He has built quite an AHL resume since being drafted – 119 games with three different teams. But he was released from his contract with the Toronto Marlies in December 2009 and signed with the Victoria Salmon Kings of the ECHL in January 2010. He has yet to appear in an NHL game and does not appear close to doing so. A year later, the Caps would draft Joe Finley as a big, ornery, shutdown defenseman. But changes to the game since the lockout have made defensemen with the dimensions (6’7", 245 pounds) and style of Finley something of an endangered species. Finley has struggled to make progress up the organizational ladder, having played only a handful of games as a pro since his completing his amateur career at the University of North Dakota. The Capitals have almost admitted as much, trying to convert Finley to a forward in training camp this past season. His career hit another road block after he sustained a hand injury last fall that cut short his season with South Carolina in the ECHL. A 27th overall pick in 2005, he probably doesn’t crack the top half-dozen defenseman prospects in the Caps’ system, the likelihood of his becoming an NHL player (certainly a regular NHL player) now something of a longshot.

The ups and downs among defensemen, coupled with the sometimes longer lead times to get them to the NHL, makes assessing the post-2005 draftees a difficult exercise. There were seven defensemen drafted in the 25-30 range in 2006-2008. Of that group, only three have dressed in the NHL so far, none playing in more games than Washington’s John Carlson. The 20-year old also happens to be the most recent of that seven-player group to be selected and seems to have the inside track at becoming the quickest (if not the only one) to top-four status. He had a memorable year by any standard – the game-winning goal at the world juniors championship, 39 points in only 48 games at Hershey, a central role in the Caps’ playoff series against Montreal (1-3-4, plus-6 in seven games), and a Calder Cup championship in Hershey to cap the year.

The other six defensemen are a mystery. Chris Summers, Brendan Smith, Nick Petrecki, and Nick Ross have yet to appear in an NHL game. In fact, they have barely 150 games combined in the AHL (Smith is the only one yet to appear in the AHL). Given the pattern of success among defensemen drafted at 25-30 before the lockout ended, trying to predict where these youngsters will find themselves in a few years is next to impossible.

Goalies, as one might expect, are a special case unto themselves. Seven goalies were selected in the 25-30 range from 2000 through 2008, and only one of them – Cam Ward – can be considered to be an impact goalie. In fact, Ward is the only one who could even be called an “NHL goaltender” to date. Four other netminders have a total of 126 games of NHL experience among them. And there are some real disappointments in this group. None more, perhaps, than Hannu Toivonen (a 29th overall pick for Boston in 2002). Toivonen played very well in two years in Providence before getting a look in Boston in 2005-2006. He was 9-5-4, 2.63, .914 in 20 appearances with the Bruins in that audition. That would be his high point in the NHL, though. He went 9-19-6 with Boston and St. Louis after that and has not appeared in the NHL since the 2007-2008 season. He played for Peoria and Rockford in the AHL last year, going 12-15-3 in the process.

Then there are the goalies who suffer the fact that you can only have one number one goalie, and there is a line to wait on before getting a chance. Meet Cory Schneider, a 2004 pick of the Vancouver Canucks. Schneider has torn up the AHL – 84-45-5, 2.31, .919, and 12 shutouts. He has nothing to prove at that level of play, but with Roberto Luongo occupying the top spot (and signed through the 2021-2022 season), Schneider is almost a certainty never to dress as a number one goalie in Vancouver. He is not a disappointment in having played in only ten NHL games, he’s stuck.

So what does this history in the 25-30th draft pick range mean for the Caps? Well, they have Evgeni Kuznetsov at number 26 in this year’s draft. Boom or bust? We won’t know that for perhaps five years or so. The good news is that the Caps have found value in this draft range recently. Only Dallas has more picks in this range in the 2000-2008 period (six) than the Caps (five), and three of the Caps’ four picks in this range since 2004 are solid, contributing performers. Two of them could be elite at their position for years to come.

The flip side of that coin is that all four of the Caps’ picks in this range since 2004 are defensemen. While true that Mike Green and John Carlson could be elite players for the Caps, it does not follow that similar luck with a forward will ensue. The Caps, however, appear very happy with Kuznetsov falling to them at 26 in this draft. Whether he will become a more productive version of, say, Andrew Cogliano (a center picked 25th overall by Edmonton in 2005) or the next Adrian Foster is part of what makes this time of year interesting, as much to look back as to predict things to come.