The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Capitals at Flames, October 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals settle their season series with the Calgary Flames this evening when they visit the Scotiabank Silverdome for the first time since the 2010-2011 season.  That one was a pleasant visit for the Caps, spotting the Flames a 2-0 lead, then running off seven straight goals – six of them in the second period -- in a 7-2 win…

Cheerless!  What in the… you want to explain the camel?!?!

"Doncha get it, cuz?  Third game of a five-game road trip?"
 

I guess.  In its own way, the notion seems to fit.  The Caps seem to be getting over the “hump” of their early season struggles, bringing a three-game winning streak and four wins in five games to Calgary.  On the other hand, the Flames have hit a rough patch.  After they opened the season with a 3-0-2 record, they took to the road for five games and lost four of them.  It has made for two very different five game pieces for Calgary:

Lee Stempniak (3-2-5) and Jiri Hudler (2-3-5) have done pretty well offensively over these last five games for the Flames.  After that, scoring drops off quickly.  Only Sean Monahan has as many as two goals, and only four other players have lit the lamp at all.  Monahan presents an interesting case for Calgary.  Taken sixth overall in the 2013 entry draft last summer, he has goals in six of the ten games his has played so far for the Flames.  He is currently tied for third among all rookies in points (ten) and is second in goals (six). His performance convinced Flames management to keep him for the rest of the season rather than return him to the Ottawa 67’s in Canadian junior hockey.

Meanwhile, the Flames’ defense and goaltending hardly shined over these last five games.  Joey MacDonald is 0-2-0, 3.05, .884 in two appearances, while Karri Ramo is 1-2-0, 4.05, .878 in three games.  It is not as if they faced a particularly heavy shot load.  In five games they faced a combined 152 shots in 295 minutes of work, about 31 shots per 60 minutes.  Those are middle-of-the-pack numbers in the league.  Here is how the two teams compare in their numbers to date…

1.  Over their last five games Calgary allowed the game’s first goal in each of them.  In three of them they allowed that first goal in the first five minutes of the game, and in three of them they allowed the first two goals of the game, putting themselves in a deep hole early.  They were outscored, 7-1, in the first period of those games.

2.  The Flames are the worst faceoff team in the league, winning just 42.9 percent of draws.  Of the 13 players having taken any faceoffs this season, only David Jones is over 50 percent.  He has won 12 of 17 faceoffs (70.6 percent).

3.  Only the New York Rangers, who have yet to play in Madison Square Garden, have played fewer home games than the Flames so far.  Calgary has not lost in regulation time in any of their three games played at home.

4.  Mark Giordano missed the last two games for Calgary with an injury that has not been identified.  If he misses tonight’s game, the scoring load from the blue line likely falls to former Capital Dennis Wideman.  He is 0-2-2, minus-5 in his last four games.

5.  Mike Cammalleri, who missed the first meeting of the Caps and Flames, returned to the lineup last Monday after missing seven games with a hand injury.  He recorded a goal and an assist in a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings, the Flames’ only win in their last five games.  Cammalleri is without a point in his last two contests.

1.  Alex Ovechkin is one of only four NHL player this season with ten or more shots in a game.  The others are Evander Kane, Henrik Zetterberg, and defenseman Jason Garrison.

2.  The Caps are the only team in the NHL with two players having 10 or more assists (Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson).

3.  Odd fact… the Caps rank only tied for 23^rd in scoring defense, but they do not have a player among the top 40 in goals scored against/on ice.  John Carlson, who has been on ice for 12 goals against, is tied for 44^th.  However, the Caps do have six players who have been on ice for ten or more goals against in ten games.

4.  Fans have taken note of Tom Wilson’s willingness to stand up for teammates, risking life and knuckles for the team.  However, the Caps are not among the fightingest teams in the league.  Only eight teams have recorded fewer fighting majors than the four the Caps.  Calgary being one of them (two), one would expect this to be a game without that brand of fan entertainment, even though there was one in the first game of this season series between the clubs (Wilson and Lance Bouma).

5.  Braden Holtby has finally dragged himself off the second page of the NHL.com goalie stats – 30^th in goals against average (2.78) and 21^st in save percentage (.919).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Curtis Glencross

There might not be another Calgary player who represents the different five-game segments for the Flames than Curtis Glencross.  In his first five games he was 2-2-4, and Calgary was 3-0-2.  In his last five games he is without a point, is minus-3, and the Flames are 1-4-0.  It is no coincidence that he went scoreless on the five-game road trip.  He certainly is a player who likes his home cooking.  In 208 career games played on home ice he is 66-64-130, plus-36.  When packing a suitcase, he is 45-45-90, minus-29 in 200 games.  Maybe it’s the airline food.  He has only four career appearances against the Caps with a 2-0-2, even, scoring line.

Washington:  Tom Wilson

Trivia Question – Among NHL rookie forwards, how many have at least ten shots on goal for the season without a goal?  If you said “two,” you win.  Of the 18 rookie forwards with ten or more shots on goal this season only Edmonton’s Mark Arcobello and Washington’s Tom Wilson are without a goal.  Arcobello has the charm of having recorded ten assists.  Wilson is, alas, without a point thus far.  Wilson topped the ten minute time on ice mark for the first time on Thursday against Edmonton (11:36), a product of his getting 1:17 in power play time.  It looks as if his responsibilities are slowly expanding, as will his opportunities to get that first goal.  The last time we made a pronosto like this it came true (Martin Erat getting a star against Columbus).  Here is another… Wilson gets his first NHL goal tonight.

Keys:

1.  First five minutes.  After spending five games on the road and falling behind early in three of them, the Flames have perhaps settled into an unpleasant routine.  Only four teams have fewer first period goals than the Caps (five in ten games).  Calgary has not shown itself to be a successful come-from-behind team, either.

2.  Roll tide.  The Caps had only one player log more than 20 minutes of ice time in their 4-1 win over Edmonton.  The Caps could afford to do that because they took – and kept – a lead.  One begets the other, but what it means is that the Caps might be a bit fresher for this game as a result.  Now they have an opportunity to do it again.

3.  Shooooooot!  Calgary has done a pretty good job of avoiding high shot volumes. Only twice in ten games have the Flames allowed more than 35 shots on goal.  The Caps have had three games with more than 35 shots on goal with a 2-1-0 record in them.

In the end…

Although the Caps have had their troubles going west over the years, Calgary has been something of an oasis.  Washington is 3-1-1 in their last five visits, outscoring the Flames by a 20-11 margin.  Given the history and the recent trends for the clubs, the Caps will get over the “hump,” so to speak.

Capitals 4 – Flames 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 10: Capitals 4 - Oilers 1

If the Washington Capitals and Edmonton Oilers did not finish their contest last night before your bedtime, cheer up Caps fans… CAPS WIN ! CAPS WIN!! CAPS WIN!!!

The Caps made it three in a row last night at Rexall Place in Edmonton, beating the Oilers by a 4-1 margin. The win allowed the Caps to climb to third in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the Carolina Hurricanes, who lost to the Minnesota Wild, 3-1.

If you had odd numbers last night, you were lucky. The first line and the third line figured in the scoring, as did the first defensive pair. Alex Ovechkin opened the scoring with his tenth goal of the season late in the first period and added an assist. Nicklas Backstrom had his first goal since Game 2 of the season and had an assist of his own, his tenth of the season. Marcus Johansson added two assists. For the third line, Joel Ward and Jason Chimera added goals with Mikhail Grabovski getting an assist. As for the defense, it was Karl Alzner and John Carlson each getting a helper.

Other stuff…

-- No power play goals. A 4-1 win at even strength. Holding the Oilers to a tie in total even-strength shots. If the Caps perform to that level, the power play goals will come, making this a formidable team.

-- Maybe that game against Winnipeg was just a hiccup for Braden Holtby. With 30 saves on 31 shots, he has a save percentage of .945 over his last five games and is 4-1-0.

-- Tom Wilson continues in the “close but no cigar” pursuit of his first NHL goal. He had a chance on the doorstep, but…no cigar.

-- When was the last time Alex Ovechkin did not record a hit in a game? We don’t know, but it strikes us as being a long time.

-- Nate Schmidt keeps piling up the minutes. Last night: 19:50. Not what one might have expected when the season started. And he has been on the ice for only four goals against in almost 111 minutes of playing time. He was not on ice for Edmonton’s shutout spoiler last night, either.

-- Nice thing about settling things relatively early (the Caps had a 3-0 lead less than two minutes into the third period)…rolling lines and pairs. Only Mike Green among the 18 skaters had more than 20 minutes of ice time (22:40), and none had fewer than ten minutes…even Tom Wilson (11:36).

-- Speaking of Wilson…1:17 of power play ice time. This is part of the closely-managed special teams ice time we were talking about in a previous post that will probably result in his aggregate ice time climbing over the rest of the year. He might be a 7-8 minute guy now. By March, he might be a 10-12 guy.

-- It was nice to shutout the Oilers on their power play (0-for-3), but we were not too keen on allowing seven shots in 5:28 of power play time. -- The Caps spread thing around in this respect – shots at even strength. Fourteen of 18 skaters had them. Good marks for class participation.

-- The Caps have the reputation of having flair (maybe too much of it), but they got their goals from in close last night. Two on the doorstep and Chimera getting one taking a feed as he was charging the net, added to the faceoff-win-wrister from Ovechkin.

In the end… It was another solid, if unspectacular game. Just the kind of game you would like to see the Caps churn out on the road. There was the annoyance at the end when an Oiler managed to get behind both Wilson and John Erskine to ruin Holtby’s shutout bid, but the Caps did not look in danger of losing this game after Joel Ward’s goal in the second period. The Caps are getting into a good rhythm now, having scored four or more goals in four of five games (damn you, Henrik!) and allowing only a total of ten over that same span, including those four goals to Winnipeg.

They get another chance to face an opponent they have already faced – and beaten – on Saturday when they visit Calgary, a team that has lost four of five. Let’s hope the Caps don’t get caught peeking ahead to their game in Vancouver on Monday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 10: Capitals at Oilers, October 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 5-4 freestyle competition win over the Winnipeg Jets, continue their tour of western Canada Thursday night when they face the Edmonton Oilers at Rexall Place.  The former Northlands Coliseum/Edmonton Coliseum/Skyreach Centre is one of the older rinks in the NHL, having opened for business in 1974.  It is approaching the end of its useful life as an NHL venue, the planned replacement to be located in downtown Edmonton and planned for groundbreaking next spring. 

For now, though, this arena has a lot of history in it.  Five Stanley Cup winners, with replica Cups occupying a place near the home team’s dressing room displaying the names of all the Oilers who won Cups with the team.  There is even a space left open as a reminder that there is always room for another Cup.

It just might not be coming along very soon.  The Oilers, who took a 1-3-1 record into Verizon Center last week and dropped a 4-2 decision to the Capitals, have only slowly been getting their footing since.  They dropped a pair of 3-2 decisions – one in Pittsburgh and one against the New York Islanders on Long Island – before heading to back to Canada to wrap up a six-game road trip with a 3-1 win in Ottawa and a 4-3 win in Montreal.

In those four games since the teams last met, the Oilers have found goals difficult to come by, scoring a total of 11 in the four contests.  The problem is that none of them came on the power play.  The Oilers are 0-for-13 in their last four games, extending a string of fruitless power plays to 18 dating back to the second period of their 6-5 overtime loss to Toronto on October 12^th.

Edmonton’s goaltending has tightened up some over the last ten days.  In six games ending with their 4-2 loss to the Caps on October 14^th, Oiler goalies were 1-4-1 with a 4.53 goals against average and a .839 save percentage.  Over their last four games, though, they are 2-2-0, 2.54, .926.  That is a product of Devan Dubnyk shaking off a shaky start to win two of his last three decisions while posting a 2.35 goals against average and a .935 save percentage.

A lingering problem is the shots allowed by the Oilers – 34 per game over their last four contests.  In none of those games did the Oilers outshoot their opponents.  It has placed pressure on the offense to be efficient.  Their 10.6 percent shooting percentage in those games compares well to the league (8.8 percent) and is better than all but seven other teams’ season shooting percentage. 

The Oiler offense has been led by Jordan Eberle (2-4-0) in the four games since Edmonton faced the Caps.  Eberle shares the goal scoring lead with Ales Hemsky Taylor Hall, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  Mark Arcobello has five assists over the four games, giving him ten on the season.  That puts him in the “which one of these names does not belong” tie with Sidney Crosby, Henrik Sedin, and Joe Thornton for the league lead.

Here is how the two teams compare in their numbers to date…

1.  Taylor Hall, who is tied for third on the team in points, is out with a sprained left knee and will miss perhaps a month on injured reserve.  It is the latest of nicks that have eaten into his playing time.  In two previous 82-game seasons he missed 17 and 21 games (ankle, shoulder, and concussion), and last year he missed three of 48 games (one to a hamstring injury and two to suspension).

2.  Only one team in the league has taken more minor penalties than Edmonton (47).  That would be Winnipeg (50), the team the Caps just finished with.  The Oilers, however, have escaped without having to go shorthanded as many times as the number of penalties would suggest.  Their total of 36 shorthanded situations faced ranks as the 11^th most in the league.

3.  Think Edmonton wants Boyd Gordon for his defense?  Through ten games he has the team's lowest share of zone starts taken in the offensive zone, and it’s not close.  He has taken 17.7 percent of his zone starts in the defensive end.  Ryan Smyth is next lowest with 22.2 percent (source: extraskater.com).

4.  No team has allowed more first period goals than Edmonton (14).  Only two teams have allowed more goals in the second period (13) – The New York Rangers and Florida Panthers (14 each).  Only New Jersey and Philadelphia have allowed more third period goals than the Oilers.  This is not a good defensive team.

5.  Back to this Arcobello kid.  First, Mark Arcobello is not a kid, he is a 25-year old rookie.  He was undrafted and spent four years at Yale University.  Then he spent three seasons toiling in the minors – splitting time with the Stockton Thunder in the ECHL and the Oklahoma City Barons in the AHL in 2010-2011, then skating two more seasons with Barons (earning a one game look with the Oilers last season).  His performance, while showing constant improvement in the AHL, did not look outsized in his regular season performance (22-46-68 in 74 games last season), but his playoff performance was worth noting.  In 2012 he was 5-8-13 in 14 games with Oklahoma City and 12-8-20 in 17 games with the Barons in last season’s playoffs.  He is currently tied with San Jose’s Tomas Hertl for the rookie points lead (ten).

1.  The Caps’ possession numbers are brutal.  At 5-on-5 with the score tied, they are 22^nd in Corsi-for percentage (46.8 percent as a share of combined Corsi-for and Corsi-against events) and 24^th in Fenwick-for percentage (44.7 percent; source: extraskater.com).

2.  Shot distances by themselves do not provide nuance – you don’t have a sense of the “degree of difficulty” of shots – and they can suffer from errors in observation (assignment of distances), but they do suggest a player’s willingness to traffic in difficult areas to get shots.  The shortest average shot distance for the Caps so far belongs to Mikhail Grabovski (16.8 feet).  But let us not make too much of this.  Marcus Johansson has the third shortest average shot distance (22.5 feet; source: extraskater.com).

3.  Mike Green and John Carlson lead, for lack of a better word, Capitals defensemen in goals scored against/on ice.  This is, no doubt, partly a function of their ice time (they are first and second on the team in total average ice time), but since the two are almost never paired (they have less than nine minutes together at 5-on-5 this season; source: stats.hockeyanalysis.com), it suggests a disturbing problem on the top two defense pairs.  It is not evident who can be counted on to be the shutdown type.

4.  The Caps still do not have a roster defenseman with a goal this season.  Connor Carrick, currently in Hershey, has the only one for the blueliners.  The current roster defensemen are 0-for-87 shooting the puck.

5.  Starting with his win over Edmonton ten days ago, goalie Braden Holtby is 3-1-0, 2.23, .940 in four appearances.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Edmonton: Nail Yakupov

In his first four games this season Nail Yakupov, the first overall pick in the 2012 draft, had no points, ten shots on goal, and was a minus-1.  That lackluster spot earned him a seat in the press box for two games, one of them being the Oilers’ first meeting with the Caps.  He was returned to the lineup last week against Pittsburgh and has played in four games since his benching.  Things have improved…barely.  He has an assist in those four games, nine shots on goal, and is a plus-2.  Despite getting almost three minutes of power play ice time a game so far he does not have a point on the man advantage.  At even strength no Oiler has a higher share of offensive zone starts.  He has been put in situations advantageous to offensive success, and he has not produced as yet.  As a result, he is now being whispered about – pro and con – in trade rumors.  Yakupov has a great big bulls eye on his back, and in the Oilers’ first home game after a six-game road trip, that bulls-eye is flashing bright red.  This will be his first career game against the Caps…if he dresses.

Washington: Mike Green

Did you think we would be going into Game 10 of the season and still be waiting for Mike Green’s first even strength point of the season?  There are 78 defensemen ahead of Green at the moment, including the likes of Anton Belov, Justin Braun, Sami Vatanen, and Jake Muzzin.  Then, in the midst of having what might have been his worst overall game in recent memory in Tuesday’s win in Winnipeg, he was benched for the last 9:35 of regulation and all five minutes of overtime.  It was the first time this season he skated less than 20 minutes (18:13), and his lowest ice time since March 16, 2012, when he skated 18:11 in a 3-2 loss in (coincidentally) Winnipeg.  Like many Caps, Green does not have much of a history against the Oilers.  He is 2-2-4, minus-3 in five career games against Edmonton.

Keys:

1.  Special is as special does. Washington has the best special teams index in the league – 118.5 (sum of their power play and penalty killing percentages).  Edmonton is 29^th.  The Caps are plus-5 on special teams (power play and shorthanded goals scored less power play and shorthanded goals allowed), the Oilers are minus-8.  Do the math.

2.  Grab and hold.  The Caps had a lead against Winnipeg heading into the last minute of the second period and gave up a goal.  They took a lead early in the third period and gave up a goal.  One of the disturbing things about the Caps early is their frustrating tendency to get leads and cough them up.  That’s another manifestation of the lack of killer instinct this club has displayed in recent years.

3.  Play your game…play your game.  Getting into a shooting match with Winnipeg is one thing.  They are a team of some, but not extraordinary offensive skill.  Do that against the Oilers, and it will be a difficult night.  The Oilers have speed and skill, especially among their forwards, that can exploit any timidity or lack of foot speed among the Caps, especially the defensemen.  If the Oilers are entering the offensive zone with speed and puck control, backing the Caps off, look out.  Play ugly, or at least homely.

In the end…

This is a bit of a benchmark game.  The Caps beat Edmonton in Washington when they strafed the Oilers for three goals in less than four minutes in the second period on their way to a 4-2 win.  As a 60-minute matter the Caps were less dominant, getting outshot by a 30-20 margin.  The Caps come into this game having won two in a row, but then too, so do the Oilers.  And you can make the argument that the Oilers’ two wins came against competition – Ottawa and Montreal – superior to that faced by the Caps (Columbus and Winnipeg).  Washington has the chance to get to the .500 mark for the first time since Game 2 that compared to last year, when they did not hit the .500 mark until Game 36, would seem like they were the 1978 Montreal Canadiens reincarnated.  They will have just enough to hold back Oilers and hit that mark.

Capitals 4 – Oilers 3

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 9: Capitals 5 - Jets 4 (OT/Gimmick)

It was a see-saw affair, but the Washington Capitals had one more trick shot in their arsenal than did the Winnipeg Jets, earning them the Bettman Point and a 5-4 win over the Jets at MTS Centre last night.

After a scoreless first period, the scoreboard became something of a pinball machine without the bells as the teams split six goals in the second period.  The Caps broke in front in the fourth minute of the period when Mikhail Grabovski, who had the puck follow him around during the entire sequence – he had three separate touches in the Jets’ zone – took advantage of Zach Bogosian gloving the puck into the slot, backhanding it around a clot of players piled up around goalie Ondrej Pavelec and through for a 1-0 Caps lead.

Winnipeg took the lead with goals 70 seconds apart later in the period when Bryan Little put home a rebound of an Andrew Ladd shot while the Jets were shorthanded, and when Grant Clitsome fired the puck through a Dustin Byfuglien screen and past goalie Braden Holtby. 

Then the game turned into the Alex Ovechkin show.  As the clock closed on the five minute mark of the period Andrew Ladd tried to move the puck up the right wing wall to the point but managed only to put it on the stick of Marcus Johansson.  From there, Johansson found Ovechkin breaking free through the middle of the neutral zone.  It became a race between Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien at that point, and Ovechkin won the race, flipping a backhand past Ondrej Pavelec to tie the game.

Less than three minutes later Ovechkin gave the Caps the lead off a faceoff win by Johansson.  Ovechkin collected the puck at the far side of the faceoff circle, stepped around from behind Johansson, and wristed the puck past a startled Pavelec to restore the Caps’ lead.

The 3-2 lead might have been the way the Caps went to the locker room for the second intermission, but Blake Wheeler put an end to that thinking in the last 30 seconds of the period, deflecting an Evander Kane drive over the shoulder of Braden Holtby to knot the game at three apiece.

The teams exchanged goals early in the third period, first with Troy Brouwer getting his third goal of the season on a power play, taking a slick backhand feed from Nicklas Backstrom at the edge of the left wing faceoff circle and snapping the puck past Pavelec.  Bryan Little tied it again barely two minutes later when Andrew Ladd found him with a pass in the slot.  Little wasted no time wristing the puck past Holtby, off the far post and into the back of the net. 

That would be it for the hockey portion of the evening, the clubs unable to add to the goal totals through the last 13 minutes of regulation and five minutes of overtime.  That left it to the Gimmick, which would prove to test the durability of the goal lamps as much as did regulation.  The teams split six successful tries through five rounds of the shootout, but when Evander Kane came up short in the seventh round, it was up to Martin Erat for the Caps.  Erat ended the evening on an up note for the Caps when he wristed the puck through the pads of Pavelec to give the Caps the extra standings point and a good start on the five-game road trip.

Other stuff…

-- Yes, Braden Holtby allowed four goals, which was three more than the combined total he allowed the Jets in all of last season at MTS Centre.  But it was not as if he had a lot of help, either.  Winnipeg had 47 shots on goal (a career high faced by Holtby) and outshot the Caps at even-strength, 37-24.

-- There were simply too many instances of Jets either getting behind Capital defenders, getting inside position, or just being left alone in shooting areas.

--  Getting two goals from Ovechkin and two assists from Johansson made it a good night for the top line, but the second line managed only one shot on goal as a line, that by Troy Brouwer (Brouwer had another – a goal – on a power play). 

-- Every defenseman was on ice for a goal against.  It was a team effort.

-- Grabovski’s goal was his first even-strength point since opening night.

-- It says something that Nate Schmidt and Steve Oleksy were probably the best defensemen on the ice at both ends for the Caps.  We are not sure just what that says, but it isn’t good.

-- We would like to think that Tom Wilson is going to finish the season with more points than fights, but after his scrap with Patrice Cormier that ledger reads: Fights – 3, Points – 0. 

-- The Caps took it in the teeth on offensive zone faceoffs, losing 15 of 26 draws, although the scoring line centers did a good job.  Nicklas Backstrom and Brooks Laich were a combined 9-for-16.

-- The two goals for Ovechkin make it nine in eight games this season, 31 in his last 30 games, and 56 goals in his last 82.

In the end... There are some games you are going to win, no matter what, some you are going to lose no matter what, and then there are the ones that are up in the air.  You get the feeling that this was one that the Caps were going to win, no matter what.  It certainly was not a “winning” performance.  Too many blown coverages in the defensive zone, too many flubbed exits from the defensive zone, too many oddly timed passes, too much chasing the puck.  Sometimes, though, a team’s skill level allows them just enough moments to overcome long stretches of poor play.  That was the case here.  A fine effort by Grabovski to keep after the puck in one case, an excellent pass by Backstrom to Brouwer in another, and a pair of goals from Ovechkin.  It was enough to get to the bonus round and allow the Caps to erase – or maybe “Erat” – what would have been a sour memory of this game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 9: Capitals at Jets, October 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the road for what will be their longest non-Olympics absence from Verizon Center this season. The five game trip starts in Winnipeg where the Caps will face the Jets, their former Southeast Division rival, at MTS Centre. It is by no means the only attraction in the crown jewel of Manitoba this week.

There is, for instance, “Big Boom Theory 2: Time Traveling Geeks” at the Celebrations Dinner Theatre, where the cast travel through space and time to prove that nerds really do have more fun. If you want to follow up on the Caps-Jets tilt, you can catch “Abbasolutely Fabbaulous” at the Burton Cummings Theatre on Wednesday. The cast all agree on one thing, “ABBA’s music is fun, the costumes are wacky, they are not something you wear around town, but are ideal to take everybody back to the great musical era of the 70’s”. Hey, we lived in the 70’s…a "great musical era" is open to debate.

Then there is “The Harpoonist and the Axe Murderer” at the Park Theatre. It is described as “a sweaty fling between a sack full of harmonicas, a mess of foot percussion, and a very greasy Telecaster.” In other words, the Caps first half dozen or so games this season. Just a few of the things to see and do in Winnipeg if hockey does not satisfy your sense of spirit and adventure.

Oh, but what about the game, you ask? This will be the third season that the Caps have made visits to Winnipeg, and thus far the Caps have a 4-2-0 record on Jets’ ice. This edition of the Jets is, like their two editions that preceded it, stuck in the mud. After beating Edmonton and Los Angeles in their first two games, the Jets have stumbled to a 2-5-0 record in their last seven games despite all but one of those games played on home ice.

Speaking of home ice, the bloom is off the rose for the Jets.  After going 14-6-1 to open their residence in Winnipeg in 2011-2012, the Jets are just 25-23-5 since, including a 3-4-0 record at home this season.

The problem so far this season is that the offense that recorded five goals in each of those two wins to open the season has deserted them of late. In their recent 2-5-0 slump Winnipeg scored a total of 11 goals. Their scoring defense has been reasonably decent, allowing 18 goals over those same seven games (17, if you discount an empty net power play goal scored by Montreal in a 3-0 loss to the Canadiens, an average of 2.43 per game).

Here is how the teams break down, numbers-wise...

1. If you think Evander Kane scores a lot of goals against the Washington Capitals, you are wrong to think it. Know it. Kane has ten goals in 20 career games against the Capitals, more than he has against any other opponent in the league. Here is the odd thing, though. He has gone five straight games without a goal against the Caps on home ice (0-1-1 overall).

2. The Jets are being killed early, outscored by a 12-7 margin in the first period of games and by an 8-3 margin in the second period.

3. Only Buffalo has scored first in game fewer times (once) than Winnipeg (twice).

4. Winnipeg had a power play goal in each of their first five games this season, each scored by a different player. However, they have none in their last 12 power play chances dating back to the third period of a 4-1 loss to Dallas on October 11th.

5. As of Monday, only Ottawa has taken more minor penalties than the 44 taken by Winnipeg. Only the Senators have found themselves shorthanded more often.

1. The Caps have shutout Winnipeg three times in their last five meetings on MTS Centre ice.

2. Despite the fact that the Caps have played only two road games to date, they are still tied for fifth in power play goals scored on the road (four).

3. Only four teams have scored fewer 5-on-5 goals than the ten scored by Washington to date. Those four teams – Buffalo, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, and Minnesota – have a combined record through Sunday games of 7-23-4.

4. The Caps are 3-2-0 in games in which the record at least one power play goal, 0-3-0 (with only three total goals scored) when they do not.

5. The Caps are 4-1-0 in their last five visits to Winnipeg, outscoring the Jets by a 16-4 margin.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Dustin Byfuglien

From the time Dustin Byfuglien joined the Atlanta Thrashers in 2010-2011 through last season, only Shea Weber scored more goals as a defenseman (44 to 40). Oh, there might have been some goals sprinkled in there by Byfuglien on the power play that were scored from in close, but nevertheless, he demonstrated he can pound the puck from the blue line. So what’s with the zero goals to show for his nine games to date this season? It is not as if he has been shy about shooting. Only Vancouver’s Jason Garrison has more shots on goal (31) among defensemen than does Byfuglien (30). One gets the feeling it is only a matter of time, like Mt. Vesuvius, before he blows. Let’s hope the eruption waits for the Jets’ trip to Nashville.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom has one goal on just 14 shots through eight games, not what one might have expected from the top line center, even if he does have eight assists. If he is going to get one of his own, this might be the team against which he does it. Backstrom has more caerer goals scored against the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets (11) than he does against any other NHL team, except Carolina, against which he also has 11 career goals. He has found MTS Centre to his liking. In four career games there he is 2-3-5.

Keys:

1. Pick your spots. Odd Ondrej Pavelec statistic. In the four games in which the Jets’ goalie faced 32 or more shots, he is 3-1-0. In the four games in which he faced 31 or fewer shots, he is 0-4-0. Maybe the Caps should bore him to death.

2. Hang ‘em with their own rope. Winnipeg has been shorthanded 41 times in nine games so far. Four times on home ice they have found themselves shorthanded five times. If the Jets want to tie the noose by taking that many shorthanded situations, the Caps could hang ‘em with it.

3. Top Line, Top Notch. It’s one thing to “play” well, another to “perform” well. If you look at the 5-on-5/tied numbers from their game against Columbus on Saturday (source: extraskater.com), you would see that the Corsi-For numbers for the top line, expressed as a percent, were off the charts: Alex Ovechkin: 90.0, Nicklas Backstrom: 83.3, Marcus Johansson: 81.8. It is a small sample size of events, but in this instance they dominated possession. That is “playing” well in a tight game. But the trio did not have a point at 5-on-5. That is the “performance” side of things. In his “30 Thoughts” on Monday, Elliotte Friedman wrote the following:

“[In their 2-0 win over the Caps] the Rangers simply outworked the Capitals, who didn't get great reviews. You can see it on television; there is simply not the same energy or intensity from the team's best players when they aren't on the power play.”

The top line cannot just look good out there, they have to bear down and finish.

In the end…

Getting away from home has its charms for sports teams, perhaps more so when the club had a disappointing home stand (2-3-0). Winnipeg presents a familiar foe, and the Caps – particularly goalie Braden Holtby (3-0-0, 0.33, .988, 2 shutouts last season) – have had success on MTS Centre ice recently. This is the Caps’ chance to take advantage of a club that is already having trouble scoring goals of their own, and they might catch the Jets peeking ahead to a four-game road trip of their own that starts in Nashville on Thursday. Add on top of that the fact that Ondrej Pavelec was hardly lights out against the Caps last season at home (0-3-0, 4.13, .818), and this is a chance for the Caps to start their road trip on the right foot.

Capitals 5 – Jets 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 3

The Washington Capitals salvaged their five-game home stand with a 2-1-0 week after losing the first two games of the home set.  Not that it was all unicorns and accordions, as we will see in the third edition of “That Was The Week That Was.”

Record: 2-1-0

It was the first winning week for the Capitals this season after a pair of sub-.500 weeks.  After beating the Edmonton Oilers, then losing to the New York Rangers, it was looking as if the Caps could only beat teams from Alberta (their other season win coming against the Calgary Flames in Week 1).  Then, they closed the week with an impressive 4-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday in the first Metropolitan Division meeting of the two clubs.  The week might look more impressive than it was in this respect.  All three teams the Caps faced were sub-.500 teams when they met, a combined record of 5-11-1.  However, there are no standings points awarded for strength of schedule; two points is two points, and four is better than none, which is what the Caps had in the previous week.

Offense: 2.67/game (season: 2.50 / T-18^th)

It was “deuces are wild” for the Caps this week.  Of the eight goals scored by the club in three games, four players scored two apiece: Joel Ward, Brooks Laich, Troy Brouwer, and Alex Ovechkin.  For Ward, Laich, and Brouwer those goals were their first of the season.  For Ovechkin is was the continuation of a hot run that saw him finish the week with seven goals in his first eight games of the season and 29 goals in his last 29 regular season games dating back to last season. 

On the helper side, the news was that Nicklas Backstrom had four assists, giving him eight for the season (tied for fifth in the league) and giving him 29 in his last 29 regular season games.  Then there was Martin Erat.  The erstwhile fourth liner was moved up to the second line on the left side with Laich and Brouwer in Saturday’s game against Columbus.  He made the move look good with three assists that left him tied for fourth on the club.

Defense: 1.67/game (season: 3.12 / 25^th)

It’s hard what to make of this week as far as the defense is concerned.  The Caps allowed teams to fire 91 even strength shots on goal.  That is a lot of rubber finding its way to the Capitals’ net.  On the other hand, of the five goals scored against the Caps for the week, two were scored in the last five minutes when the decision was no longer in doubt. 

And that is where we get to the goals scored against by player.  It might seem disturbing on one level that John Carlson was victimized more than any defender, on ice for three of the five goals against for the week.  But Carlson was on ice for those two goals in the last five minutes.  He got caught once covering Jeff Petry while his partner, Steve Oleksy, was defending behind the Caps net.  Carlson could not get back to cover Will Acton, left alone at the doorstep for a tap-in.  The other certainly was not his fault, covering Columbus’ Cam Atkinson driving the net while Artem Anisimov was filling a late lane to bury a drive past goalie Braden Holtby. Circumstance seemed to be Carlson's problem this week.

Goaltending: 1.69 GAA / .952 save percentage (season: 3.00 / .908)

What a difference a week makes.  Actually, it has been something in the making for Braden Holtby.  Coming into this week Holtby was 1-3-0, 4.03, .873 for the season.  For the week he was 2-1-0, 1.69, .952.  What is more amazing is his early game netminding.  He had a save percentage in the first period of games of .969 for the week and .956 in the second period (allowing both goals for the week to the New York Rangers that did him in).  He had a save percentage of .926 in the third period, but again, both goals allowed were scored in the last five minutes when the decision was no longer in doubt.  Another week like this, and he will climb off the second page of the NHL.com goalie statistics.

Power Play: 4-11 / 36.4 percent (season: 33.3 percent / 1^st)

Half of the Caps’ eight goals for the week were scored on the power play.  That is a recurring theme this year; half of the 20 goals they scored so far are power play goals.  The Caps spread things around, scoring-wise.  Three different players shared the four goals, and it was the unexpected contribution of Joel Ward accounting for two goals (Troy Brouwer and Alex Ovechkin had the others).  Eight different players had power play points, six of them contributing assists.  Nicklas Backstrom recorded assists on three of the four goals for the week.  Washington was quite efficient for the week, scoring four goals on 14 power play shots in 11:22 of power play time.  It would have been more so but for the fact that the Caps drew a blank on six power play shots (their high for the week) against the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist.  The goalie was the team’s best penalty killer in that one.

Penalty Killing: 9-9 / 100.0 percent (season: 85.7 percent / 6^th)

All of a sudden the team that can’t kill penalties is sixth in the league in penalty killing.  That is what going 9-for-9 for the week will do.  The Caps are now ten for their last ten in killing penalties, dating back to the third period of their 5-1 loss to Colorado on October 12^th.  It was an efficient as well as an effective week.  The Caps allowed only 12 shots on goal in 14:37 in penalty killing time, Braden Holtby turning all of them aside.  His shorthanded save percentage jumped from .813 to .893 for the season.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 4-5 (season: 10-20; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio rank: 0.59 / 27^th)

This is where the Caps continue to struggle.  Two games in which they score power play goals, two wins.  The game in which they do not score a power play goal, a loss.  The Caps have not yet found a way to cobble together enough even-strength effectiveness to make up for the nights when the power play is not clicking (or they are playing against Henrik Lundqvist).  They “won” only the game against Columbus on Saturday when they outscored the Blue Jackets, 2-1.  Those 91 shots against at even strength put a lot of pressure on goaltending.  Worse was that the Caps were outshot, 91-67, at even strength with more than half of the Caps’ even strength shots for the week (34) coming against Columbus.

Faceoffs: 91-181 / 50.3 percent (season: 52.5 percent / 10^th)

It was a tightly fought battle in the circle this week.  It was, though, the third straight week in which the Capitals came out above the 50 percent mark.  It might have been a better week had not the Caps fallen down against the Blue Jackets.  They could manage only seven wins in 21 tries in the offensive end and seven in 16 tries in the defensive end against Columbus.  If there was a soft spot here it was Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr in the offensive zone.  Combined, Backstrom (7-for-19) and Fehr (3-for-10) went 10-for-29 on offensive zone faceoffs (34.5 percent).

Goals For/Against by Period:

It was the second period – good and bad – that was critical for the Caps this week.  Against Edmonton on Monday the Caps lit up the Oilers for three goals on four shots in a span of 3:55 to end the competitive portion of a 4-2 Caps win.  Then it was the New York Rangers’ turn to victimize the Caps, scoring both of their goals in the second period – less than two minutes apart – in a 2-0 win.  The Caps returned to the positive side of the second period ledger against Columbus with a pair of goals that set them up nicely with a 2-0 lead that would become a 4-1 win.  As the week ended, only five teams had more second period goals scored than the Caps in the second period of games.  However, the Caps are also in the top half of the league in second period goals allowed (tied for 11^th most), making for a thin second period advantage (10-8).

In the end…

Consider Week 3 progress.  Last season the Caps did not realize their first winning week until Week 4.  And even though the five-game home stand was disappointing (2-3), the Caps did salvage two of the last three contests.  The biggest thing to come out of the week, other than the two wins, might be the lineup juggling that head coach Adam Oates performed for the Columbus game to end the week.  As noted in the post-game review, Oates made nine distinct lineup switches:

• Martin Erat from 4L to 2L
• Brooks Laich from 2L to 2C
• Mikhail Grabovski from 2C to 3C
• Eric Fehr from 3C to 4C
• Jay Beagle from 4C to the bench
• Aaron Volpatti from the bench to 4L
• Nate Schmidt from 3LD to 1LD
• Karl Alzner from 1LD to 2LD
• Alexander Urbom from 2LD to 3LD

It had the intended effect.  Erat had three assists.  Laich had a goal and won 13 of 25 draws from the center position.  The second line finally looked like a scoring line.  The object now will be to take this on the road and see how it plays over the next two weeks.

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 8: Capitals 4 - Blue Jackets 1

It took eight games, but the Washington Capitals finally put together a complete performance, beating the Columbus Blue Jackets, 4-1, at Verizon Center.

Four different Capitals – Joel Ward, Brooks Laich, Troy Brouwer, and Alex Ovechkin – scored goals, nine different Capitals had points, Braden Holtby turned away 37 of the 38 shots he faced, and the club looked solid in all three zones for most of the game.

The first period suggested that this would be a game with pace, but with two teams struggling to score, it ended without a goal for either team despite 25 combined shots on goal.  That ended abruptly in the second minute of the second period.  With Brandon Dubinsky sent off on a tripping call 1:26 into the period, the Capitals worked the triangle play on the man advantage – Nicklas Backstrrom from the side wall to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended to Joel Ward in the slot.  Ward one-timed the puck past goalie Sergei Bobrovsky at the 1:58 mark before the netminder could flinch.

Almost six minutes later it was Brooks Laich batting in a rebound from the doorstep to Bobrovsky’s right, but it was Steve Oleksy who made the play.  Oleksy collected the puck off the right wing wall and slid in, leaving Cam Atkinson flat-footed with a fine curl-and-drag, opening himself up for a shot that Bobrovsky stopped.  He could not control the rebound, though, and Laich was right there to finish the play.  That would be how the teams went to the second intermission, the Caps leading, 2-0.

Early in the third period Troy Brouwer extended the lead when he helped dig out a loose puck from behind the Columbus net to start the scoring sequence.  The puck squirted out to Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin, but Nikitin put the puck on the stick of Martin Erat as he was trying to move it up the wall.  Erat found Brouwer circling out from behind the net, and Brouwer had nothing but clear ice.  With Nikitin late getting to the front of the net and the other defenseman – Jack Johnson – not doing much of anything by way of defending, Brouwer had time and space to take two whacks at the puck  Bobrovsky stopped one, but he could not stop the other, Brouwer swatting the puck lying at the top of the crease into the open cage.

Two minutes later, with Dubinsky off on another penalty, the Caps made the Blue Jackets pay when Mike Green slid the puck from the top of the offensive zone to Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle.  Ovechkin settled the puck and using defenseman David Savard as a screen, wristed the puck through Bobrovsky’s pads to end the Caps’ scoring for the night.  Artem Anisimov added a window dressing goal for the Blue Jackets with under five minutes left to end the scoring for the evening.

Other Stuff…

-- The reassemble second line of Martin Erat, Brooks Laich, and Troy Brouwer finished 2-2-4 (Erat added another assist on a power play), plus-6 combined, with seven shots on goal (Brouwer had six of them).

-- Speaking of Brouwer, he had 11 shot attempts and five hits, both numbers leading the Caps for the evening.

-- Adam Oates really mixed things up.  There were nine distinct changes among the skaters:

• Erat from 4L to 2L
• Laich from 2L to 2C
• Grabovski from 2C to 3C
• Fehr from 3C to 4C
• Beagle from 4C to the bench
• Volpatti from the bench to 4L
• Schmidt from 3LD to 1LD
• Alzner from 1LD to 2LD
• Urbom from 2LD to 3LD

Only the top line was left unchanged.  If folks were anxious about head coach Adam Oates and a seeming timidity about shuffling the deck, well, he shuffled the deck.

-- Perhaps lost in all the changes and the distributed scoring was the effort by Joel Ward on the penalty kill.  Ward led all Caps forwards in shorthanded ice time and was extremely effective in pinning the Blue Jackets deep on the forecheck, denying them clean breakouts and even tying up the puck along the boards to kill critical seconds. 

-- Tom Wilson skated 8:44.  It might not seem like a lot, but it is a season high for him.  It might have been more but for skating only 1:41 in the second period while the teams were exchanging power play chances, the Caps with two and the Jackets with one.

-- That was Martin Erat’s first three-assist game since December 4, 2010, against Carolina.  It was the sixth time in his career he had three or more assists in a game.  And yes, he did earn a star for the game.

-- The 77 shots on goal for the two teams was the most combined shots in a regulation time game for the Caps since they and the San Jose Sharks combined for 77 shots in a 5-3 Sharks win on February 13, 2012.

-- Braden Holtby’s game save percentage progression over his last six games… .727 (in 16 minutes), .905, .917, .933, .944, .974.  Since being pulled after those 16 minutes against Calgary, Holtby is 2-3-0, 2.03, .938.

-- The Caps have had the problem, if it can be called that, of so much of the offense (at least so far as it is reflected in shots on goal) going through Alex Ovechkin.  Tonight, 13 of the 18 skaters recorded at least one even-strength shot on goal (34 total).  The odd part of it, though, is that it was all six defensemen who had at least one.

-- Coming into this game Marcus Johansson had three shots on goal for the season.  He matched that total in the first period and recorded his fourth of the game in the second period.  It was his first four-shot game since last St. Patrick’s Day in a 5-3 win over Buffalo.

-- Does Tom Wilson get credit for three hits for toppling three Blue Jackets on one play?  No, but he did have four hits, anyway.

-- The Caps struggled with faceoffs in the offensive zone, going only 7-for-21 (33 percent), and Laich had five of the wins.  Take him out of the mix and the Caps were 2-for-11.

In the end… It was the Caps’ best game of the year to date, and it came at a welcome time, just as they are about to embark on a five-game road trip.  Scoring was balanced, special teams were effective at both ends, Braden Holtby was sharp.  If there was one hiccup it was the 38 shots on goal the Caps gave up.  It was not entirely scoring effect as the Blue Jackets recorded 21 of those shots before the Caps gained a 2-0 lead in the second period.  What the Caps did not do was give up much in the way of second chances.

Now they go on the road to Winnipeg, followed by a swing through Alberta and British Columbia before hitting Philadelphia to open November.  The goaltending issues appear to be sorting themselves out, and the balanced scoring is something to build on.  Maybe when the Caps come home against Florida on November 2^nd, the talk will be more optimistic than it has been the past week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 8: Blue Jackets at Capitals, October 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their five-game home stand on Saturday night when their newest divisional rival, the Columbus Blue Jackets, pay a visit to Verizon Center. 

This will be the first meeting of the clubs as divisional rivals – as conference rivals for that matter.  For 12 seasons the Jackets competed – if that is the right word – in the Central Division of the Western Conference.  Only once in 11 tries in an 82-game season did Columbus finish the season with averaging more than one standings point per game.  In 2008-2009 they finished with 92 points, good for fourth place in the Central Division and seventh in the Western Conference.  That remains their lone playoff appearance, and they are still waiting for their first playoff game win.  They were swept in the first round in 2009 by the Detroit Red Wings.

Last year, they were close, but no cigar.  They closed with a rush, going 8-1-0 in their last nine games and finishing in a tie with Minnesota with 55 standings points.  The Wild took that last playoff spot, though, by virtue of having more wins than Columbus, 26 to 24.

The Jackets are off on familiar ways to start the 2013-2014 season, which is to say that they are struggling.  In six games they have two wins, a trick shot win against the New York Islanders and a 4-1 win in Buffalo against the hapless Sabres.  They have lost three straight, the silver lining being that they did so to Boston, Detroit, and Montreal (the latter two on the road), all teams that are playoff contenders.

Columbus is a team played only infrequently by the Caps.  Since coming into the league in the 2000-2001 season the clubs have met only 14 times, the Caps holding a 9-3-1-1 edge that includes wins in their last three meetings.  The last time the clubs met was New Year’s Eve 2011 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, a 4-2 Capitals win in which the Caps wiped out a 2-0 Blue Jackets lead with four goals in the third period.  Only ten of the 20 Caps who dress that night (nine skaters and backup goalie Michal Neuvirth) are still with the club.  It’s a good thing they wear name plates on the backs of their jerseys, or the teams might not recognize one another.

The numbers so far for these clubs look like this…

1.  The Caps have a powerful power play, but the Jackets take advantages of advantages more consistently.  Columbus has power play goals in five of the six games played so far.  Four players share in the six power play goals scored to date: Jack Johnson (2), Boone Jenner (2), Cam Atkinson (1), and Mark Letestu (1).  Caps fans will be forgiven if they think we are making these names up.

2.  For a team that has trouble scoring (2.33 goals per game) the Blue Jackets do spread things around. Nine players have split 14 goals; 16 players have points through six games.

3.  Columbus has one multi-goal game by a player this season.  Marian Gaborik?...no.  Brandon Dubinsky?...no.  R.J. Umberger?...no.  Does the name “Boone Jenner” ring a bell?  Jenner potted a pair against Montreal on Thursday in a 5-3 loss, both goals coming on power plays.  They were the first goals in the NHL for the rookie.

4.  Speaking of rookies, in “First NHL Goal” watch, Ryan Murray is up for the Blue Jackets. The second overall pick in the 2012 draft would seem an unlikely candidate to notch one in this game.  In six games so far he has only one shot on goal.

5. Columbus has allowed 14 even strength goals so far this season.  Defenseman Jack Johnson has been on the ice for nine of them. 

1.  Only Florida (0.30) and Buffalo (0.09) have worse goals scored to goals allowed ratios in the first period than the Capitals (0.44).

2.  The Caps have outshot opponents only twice in seven games so far.  Not that it mattered much; they lost both games.

3.  That Alex Ovechkin is off to a good start scoring goals is not a surprise.  However, he is on a pace to shatter a personal career high in another statistical category.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 141 penalty minutes.  His career high so far is 89 PIMs in 2009-2010.

4.  No team has more players above 50 percent in faceoff wins than the Caps (Mikhail Grabovski, Eric Fehr, Nicklas Backstrom).

5.  The Caps lead the league in power play efficiency, and part of that is that only one team in the league has spent less time on the power play than the Caps (Ottawa).  No team has spent less time at 5-on-4, and it’s not close.  Washington has spent 4:10 less time at 5-on-4 (25:48) than the next lowest team (Ottawa – 29:58).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Sergei Bobrovsky

The defending Vezina Trophy winner is off to a decent, if unspectacular start – 21^st in both goals against average and save percentage.  However, it is a better start than he had last season.  His GAA is better through his first six games (2.49 to 3.15), and his save percentage is better (.921 to .900).  In his six games to date the key has been to get him early.  He has a save percentage of only .898 in the first period, followed by .924 in the second period and .933 in the third.  If there is an odd stat about him, it comes from last season.  Bobrovsky did not lose in regulation time in any game last season in which he faced 30 or more shots. He was 14-0-6 in 20 decisions.  So far this season he has regressed, going 1-4-0 in games in which he faced 30 or more shots.  In three career appearances against the Caps he is 1-0-1, 3.36, .890.

Washington:  Martin Erat

Maybe now he will get his chance.  It would probably be welcome.  Of 22 skaters having dressed for the Caps so far, only three have logged less even strength ice time per game than Erat (7:09).  He skated more than ten minutes in total ice time only once in seven games, but at Friday’s practice he skated with the second line with Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich.  The timing might suit Erat just fine.  Erat has scored more goals (16) and more points (53) against Columbus – all while playing with the Nashville Predators – than he has against any other NHL team.  He is plus-19 over his career against the Blue Jackets and minus-15 against everyone else.  And in one of the truly odd career stats you will find, Erat is a plus-39 in 200 career games played on Saturdays.  He is even or worse on every other day of the week over his career (minus-35 overall).  He’s going to be one of the game’s three stars…book it.

Keys:

1.  Shoot early, shoot often.  In the three games so far in which Bobrovsky faced more than ten shots in the first period he allowed five goals on 36 shots (.861 save percentage).

2.  Muscle memory.  We imagine there are few Caps fans out there who would have thought that only once in their last five games would the Caps score more than two goals.  They have only five even strength goals in those last five games.  They have been outshot, 147-119, at even strength in those five games.  And, if one takes out Alex Ovechkin’s 22 shots at even strength, it means the other 17 skaters have split the remaining 97 shots, which works out to barely one per game per skater.  It is not as if the Caps have had a recent history of being a spare offensive team.  They have been here before.

3.  No peeking.  This is the getaway game before a five-game road trip that will start by taking the Caps to western Canada.  No letting the mind wander.

In the end…

This has the chance to be the most boring game on the 13-game slate for Saturday.  Why?  What a pathetic pair of teams.  The Caps are 1-4-0 in their last five games and have scored a total of eight goals in the process (1.60 goals per game).  Columbus has only one win in regulation this season and is 1-5-1 in their last seven games, scoring a total of 11 goals (1.57/game).  It could come down to Alex Ovechkin and Mikhail Grabovski for the Caps, Cam Atkinson and Mark Letestu for the Blue Jackets.  Why?  These are the successful shooters in the trick shot phase so far this season.  We hope it does not come down to that.

Capitals 3 – Blue Jackets 2