The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 23: Canadiens at Capitals, November 22nd

Le Peerless Prognosticator est EN DIRECT!!!

The Washington Capitals, no doubt eager to wash, scrub, bleach, or apply steel wool pads scrape to away the rotten taste of Wednesday’s 4-0 loss to Pittsburgh from their mouths, take to the ice on Friday once more to face the Montreal Canadiens at Verizon Center.

While the Capitals pretty much wasted a week’s worth of good will among its fans with the stinker against the Penguins, the Canadiens are lurching from pillar to post trying to find their footing in November.

After closing October with three wins in four games to go a season-high three games over .500, Montreal is only 3-4-2 in November, alternating wins and losses in their last five games after starting the month with four straight losses.

Here is how the clubs compare in their numbers through Wednesday's games...

1.  While the Canadiens have had their issues about consistency, one position in which it has not been a problem is at goaltender.  Although Carey Price is just 2-2-0 in November, he has a 1.79 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage.  Peter Budaj has not been as impressive in his two appearances for the month, but he is 1-1-0, 2.40, .909.  Given that the Canadiens have not played since Tuesday, Price would appear the candidate to get this game.  Despite his sterling season numbers – eighth in GAA (2.05) and save percentage (.935) – he has had problems against the Caps.  In 15 career appearances against Washington he is 4-8-3, 3.09, .897.

2.  In alternating wins and losses over their last five games (3-1-1) the Canadiens have not lit up the scoreboard (13 goals), but they are likely pleased with the performance of Alex Galchenyuk.  The sophomore out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (with stops in Belarus, Germany, Italy, and Russia in between – his father, Alexander, had a hockey career in North America and Europe), is the Habs’ leading goal scorer (three) and point getter (five) over those five games.  In three career games against the Caps he is 0-2-2, even.

3.  Only the Colorado Avalanche have allowed fewer goals in the first period (9) than have the Canadiens this season (10).

4.  One of the ways a team gets good goaltending performance but lousy win-loss results is to do poorly in one-goal games.  Montreal has done just that.  They have a worst-in-the-league 2-6-2 record in games decided by one goal.

5.  Only five teams in the NHL have yet to win a game when trailing at the end of the second period.  The Canadiens are one of them.  They are not 0-15-0 bad, like Buffalo, but 0-7-1 is not something they want to put on the banner of their web site.

1.   Let’s look at the positive.  The Caps are 7-2-1 in November.  In those ten games they outscored their opponents by a 32-24 margin.  Four times they scored four or more goals (not including trick shots), only three times did they allow as many as four goals.  The Caps’ power play was 10-for-44 (22.7 percent), the penalty kill 36-for-44 (81.8 percent) over those ten games.

2.  Odd numbers.  Over the last ten games the Caps have had fine production from the players who are now reunited on the top line – Nicklas Backstrom (3-9-12), Alex Ovechkin (7-2-9), and Marcus Johansson (2-6-8).  The third line has done well, too – Joel Ward (6-1-7), Mikhail Grabovski (2-6-8), and Jason Chimera (1-6-7).

3.  John Carlson has five goals in ten games this month. He has scored a goal in every other game his last six contests, which makes him a player to watch in this game, since he did not get a goal against Pittsburgh.

4.  In eight appearances in November, Braden Holtby is 6-2-0, 2.32, .934.

5.  The Caps outscored teams by a 17-7 margin in the second period of these last ten games.  They lead the league in second period goals scored and are tied with St. Louis in the largest second period goal differential (plus-13).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Andrei Markov

P.K. Subban gets the attention, and it is deserved.  He is a talented player who is exciting to watch.  But Andrei Markov seems to be the glue that holds the defense, especially the blue line, together.  He has the best 5-on-5 Corsi on ice to when he is off ice (source: extraskater.com).   His Corsi-for percentages are above 50 percent in 14 of the 22 games in which he has played, and they are above 60 percent in eight of them.  Markov does not seem to get much attention in the media, but if the Caps are not paying attention to him, they do so at their peril.  He is 1-18-19, plus-12 in 35 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Mike Green

There might be no better opponent against which Mike Green could return from injury than the Canadiens.  In 21 career games against Montreal he is 3-15-18, plus-8.  More important, though, Green has to avoid spending more time on the shelf with an injury.  Missing three games would not normally be cause for alarm, but this is part of a continuing pattern.  The Caps do not have the best of depth on the blue line when Green is healthy.  When he is out, too much of the burden devolves to Karl Alzner and John Carlson to chew up minutes.

Keys:

1.  Score early.  It’s a good thing Montreal has only those ten goals allowed in the first period this season.  Only four teams have a worse winning percentage when allowing the first goal than Montreal, with their record of 2-7-2 in those situations.

2.  Volume.  Carey Price does not handle volume well, even with his superb overall record.  Eleven times this season Price has faced more than 30 shots on goal.  And, it’s frustrating, because he is certainly doing his part.  His record in those contests might be 4-5-2, but his goals-against average is 1.89, and his save percentage is .947.  The shots might, however, occupy the relatively anemic Canadiens’ offense and prevent them from mounting any pressure at the other end.  In those 11 games the Canadiens allowed only 20 goals, but scored only 24 themselves and were held to two or fewer seven times.

3.  Knock their top off.  If not for Max Pacioretty’s natural hat trick in the second period of Tuesday’s game against Minnesota, the Canadiens would have a truly meager offensive output over their last five games.  Take away the Pacioretty goals, and the Canadiens have ten goals in five games.  Of that total, four come from the pair of linemates Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher.  Knock them off the score sheet, the Habs would not appear to have enough secondary scoring to make a game of this.

In the end…

The loss to Pittsburgh leaves one with the question of whether the 4-0 loss was merely a bump in the road for the Caps (one that hurts more only for the opponent), or whether the Caps' string of success in November is the outlier.  Despite the sparse offense Montreal brings to this game, they are only a Caps shootout win behind them in the standings (25 to 24).  More to that point, Montreal has ten regulation and overtime wins to seven for the Caps.  The Canadiens could make this an unpleasantly low scoring affair for Washington, and that is where the success lies for the visitors.  After being shutout, one would hope the Caps bring the big boy pants (no, not the ones Carey Price wears) and make things unpleasant for the visitors.

Capitals 3 – Canadiens 1

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 22: Penguins 4 - Capitals 0

Oh, hey… we’re late with the recap?

The Caps were late last night showing up for a game that started at 8:00!!  So, we’re even.

But here’s the thing. You can dissect, puree, julienne, or mince all the Corsi and Fenwick, in 5-on-5, 5-on-5 close, power play or penalty kill all you want.  It really comes down to this…

0-4-0, 4.38, .874.

Braden Holtby has to find a way to slay this beast, because it is one he is likely to have to face again – and again – if the Caps are to be successful, either in this division or in the post season. And those numbers are now his career record against the Penguins.

Not that it is all on him.  Coming into this game, Holtby and his counterpart, Marc-Andre Fleury, had similar save percentages.  Holtby was at .925, Fleury at .921.  But while Fleury’s goal-against average was a smart-looking 2.00, Holtby’s was north of 2.60.  That is because Holtby was facing 35.0 shots per 60 minutes, Fleury only 25.4.

Well, there it was in living color on national television.  The Pens pummeled Holtby for 17 shots and two goals in the opening period to six shots on goal and none in the net for the Caps against Fleury.  The shots were 15-8, Pens, in the second period, with the only goal registered by Pittsburgh.  The visitors made it three-for-three in winning the shots battle with a 8-4 advantage in the third, plus another goal for good measure.

It was an equal-opportunity effort, or lack thereof, on the part of the Caps, who had 14 different skaters on the ice having good looks at Penguin goals.

But in the end, just as a pitcher is charged with the loss in baseball, even if his team can’t field or hit behind him, the goalie is charged with the loss, even if he sees more rubber than a salesman at a Goodyear convention.

And that means that the young Mr Holtby, who is 47-19-4, 2.37, .936, with eight career shutouts against teams other than Pittsburgh, is going to have to find a way to solve this team (with at least a little more help from his friends).  Because it is unlikely that the Caps will get to where they want to go without having to go through this team first.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 22: Penguins at Capitals, November 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals finally get down the real business of Metropolitan Division rivalries on Wednesday when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first Metro Matchup of Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby.  It has been a long time since these two teams faced one another as division rivals.

The last time these two teams met as division rivals was on March 28, 1993, in Landover, MD.  It was not a pleasant night if you were a Caps fan.  In front of a sellout crowd of 18,130 at Capital Centre (the last year the arena would be so named) the Capitals found themselves behind the eight-ball early, allowing three power plays to the league’s top power play team.  The Caps killed them all but allowed the game’s first goal nonetheless, an even strength goal by Mike Stapleton mid-way through the frame. 

Mid-way through the second period the visitors added to their lead on a power play goal by Kevin Stevens.  Rick Tocchet added a goal in the third period, and Mario Lemieux closed the Pittsburgh scoring with an empty net late.  Pat Elynuik’s goal was not enough for the Caps, who ended up having to endure eight Pittsburgh power plays in the 4-1 loss.  The win was Pittsburgh’s tenth in a row and ended the season series with a 5-1-1 advantage for the Penguins.

How long ago was that? 

• The following night the film “Unforgiven” won four Oscars, but it probably didn’t generate as much buzz as Marisa Tomei winning an Oscar for her role in “My Cousin Vinny.”  
• It would not be until three months later that Lorena Bobbit forever became a name that would cause men to cringe in horror.
• Buckingham Palace was still closed to the public; it would not be opened to the public until August of that year.
• The video game DOOM had not yet been released (that would come in December).
• Capitals’ winger Tom Wilson was not yet born.  We would have to wait a year and a day for that blessed event.

Which brings us to the game.  The way the Penguins started the season, you might have thought they were that 1992-1993 team reincarnated.  Pittsburgh raced out to a 7-1-0 record in their first eight games and outscored their competition by a 30-19 margin.  Four of their seven wins were by three-goal margins.

Then they lost a 1-0 decision at home to the Colorado Avalanche.  Then they lost again…and again.  Since their 7-1-0 start the Penguins have lurched from streak to streak.  There was the three-game losing streak following their big start, then a four-game winning streak, then a three game losing streak.  The Pens have avoided the streakiness for the time being, sandwiching a pair of convincing wins against Nashville and Anaheim around a disappointing loss at New Jersey, but they are nonetheless a team that is 6-7-0 since their 7-1-0 start.

Here are the numbers for both clubs as they head into this inaugural Metro Matchup…

1.  As Sidney Crosby goes, so go the Penguins.  In 13 wins Crosby is a robust 8-15-23, plus-9; in eight losses he is a meek 2-1-3, minus-6.  Not that things are much different with Evgeni Malkin.  In the 13 Penguin wins Malkin is 2-13-15, plus-4; he is 1-4-5, minus-7 in the eight losses.  In games in which both record a point, the Penguins are 10-2-0.

2.  Intermissions matter for the Penguins.  When they lead after one period they are 6-0-0, one of six teams with a perfect record.  With a lead after two periods they are 9-1-0.  But if they trail, things turn around.  They are 1-3-0 when trailing after one period and 1-5-0 when trailing after two periods.  And, only Colorado has a better winning percentage (1.000 on 12-for-12) than the Penguins’ .909 (10-1-0) when scoring first.

3.  Pittsburgh has two shutouts this season in 21 games.  It does not sound like a lot, but it matches their total in 48 games last season.  Both shutouts this season were by 3-0 scores, and both were against Metropolitan Division teams (New Jersey and Columbus).

4.  In each of their last six games the Penguins have either scored or allowed one goal in the final decision, four losses when scoring one goal and two wins when allowing one goal.

5.  Pittsburgh has the sixth best goal differential per game… at home.  On the road they rank only 19^th at -0.56 per game, just ahead of Edmonton.

1.  In their last six home games the Caps are 8-for-23 on the power play (34.8 percent).  In those same six games the Caps are 22-for-25 killing penalties (88.0 percent).  Overall they have outscored opponents by a 22-11 margin in those games and have allowed more than two goals only once.

2.  Alex Ovechkin is 22-18-40 in 31 career regular season games against the Penguins, but the oddest number in his resume against Pittsburgh might be that he is a plus-18.  That is the better than any comparable number he has against any other NHL team.

3.  If you are thinking of a spark from a secondary scorer, think of Mikhail Grabovski.  He has six goals and 16 points in 18 career games against Pittsburgh.  His goal total is surpassed only by his totals against Boston and Buffalo, against whom he has played a total of 59 career games.

4.  Only Toronto and Winnipeg have more minor penalties charged to them than the Caps, and only four teams have more penalty minutes per game charged to them than Washington.  Only Ottawa and Winnipeg have faced more shorthanded situations than the Caps.

5.  Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin are tied for the league lead in power play points (13 apiece).  Ovechkin leads in goals (7), while Backstrom leads in assists (12).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Marc-Andre Fleury

Well, here we are again.  In four years since the Penguins won the Stanley Cup, Marc-Andre Fleury has had decent, if unspectacular regular season success.  In 232 appearances over that time he is 138-66-15 with a goals-against average of 2.44, a save percentage of .913, and eight shutouts.  Then there are the playoffs.  In 31 appearances he is 14-16, 3.18, .880, with three shutouts.  If anything, the start to his 2013-2014 season looks even better than his previous four seasons.  He is 12-6-0, 2.00, .921, with one shutout – seventh in goals-against average and tied for 14^th in save percentage.  But it hardly seems to matter.  No matter what numbers he puts up, Penguin fans will be on tenterhooks waiting to see if there is another post-season meltdown in his future.  In 23 career regular season appearances against Washington he is 13-7-2, 2.60, .912, with one shutout.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Meanwhile, at the other end of the ice, there is the wunderkind with the 10-3-0, 2.40, .937 record over his last 13 appearances who, after a sluggish start has climbed onto the first page of the NHL.com statistics – 25^th in goals against average over all and 13^th in save percentage.  In nine home appearances he is 6-2-0, 2.28, .936 and has not allowed more than three goals in any appearance (he did allow three goals in 16 minutes against Calgary).  Against Pittsburgh, though, his career has been anything but bluebirds and accordions.  In three career appearances against the Penguins he is 0-3-0, 4.53, .861.  If you are going to play a hunch, look for Michal Neuvirth in this one (2-0-2, 1.72, .937, with two shutouts in five career appearances).

Keys:

1.  Make ‘em work for the zone.  If the Caps allow Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin skate with time and space into their zone, it could be an iffy night.  Both see the ice in full and if the puck is on their sticks while the Caps are trying to establish defensive zone presence, the Caps are flirting with danger.

2.  Give your defensemen a chance.  One of the problems the Caps seem to have against this team is in figuring a way to deal with the Pittsburgh forecheck in a way that does not involve a lot of punishment to defensemen.   Pittsburgh has outshot the Caps in eight straight games.  This does not appear coincidental.

3.  Take advantage of the soft underbelly.  Pittsburgh has a lot of high end skill, but they also have depth issues.  Yes, they have Kris Letang and Brooks Orpik on the blue line, but they also have Deryk Engelland and a rookie – Olli Maatta – getting regular minutes.  They are not getting much offensive support from their third or fourth lines.  Get past the “name” players and this looks like a good, not great team.

In the end…

It is hard to know what to make of this game.  Yes, it is the first “Metropolitan” meeting of the teams, but with 60-plus games left in the season it is hard to attach too much meaning to that.  The whole “Ovechkin-Crosby” thing has been done to death, and we get it.  They’re both really good players who seem to bring out the best in the other.  They are teams that might respect one another, but they certainly do not like one another.  It’s just a bit hard to find an angle to this game that goes beyond a faint sense of bragging rights, and that probably accrues to fans more than the players of either team, who are thinking of bigger things ahead. 

Still, winning against this team always beats losing.  Always.

Capitals 4 – Penguins 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 21: Capitals 4 - Blues 1

The Washington Capitals began play on Sunday in second place in the Metropolitan Division.  By evening’s end, they held the top spot all by themselves for the first time this season after beating the St. Louis Blues, 4-1, at Verizon Center.

What promised to be a hard slog for the Caps ended up being settled in the first 20 minutes of this contest.  It started, oddly enough, on a play on which Alex Ovechkin might have scored, but did not.  Ovechkin fired wide off a faceoff in the Blue’s end as the clock ticked past the seven-minute mark of the first period.  St. Louis managed to clear the errant puck out of the zone, but a backhand pass by Chris Stewart through the middle was too long for Brenden Morrow.  The puck was corralled by Steve Oleksy, who sent it up to Nicklas Backstrom.  From the red line, Backstrom bump-passed the puck to Ovechkin flying past him.  Ovechkin sailed in and launched a slap shot that handcuffed goalie Jaroslav Halak, sneaking under his right arm to put the Caps ahead, 1-0.

Five minutes later it was Ovechkin again.  Marcus Johansson started the play by sliding to the right wing boards to keep in an attempted clear by T.J. Oshie. Johansson sent the puck up the wall to Nicklas Backstrom, who wired the puck across to Karl Alzner at the left point.  Alzner fired the puck on net, and the puck once more appeared to handcuff Halak.  The puck popped up and plopped to the ice, and Ovechkin beat defenseman Ian Cole to it, flipping a backhand past Halak to put the Caps ahead, 2-0, at 15:41.

Barely three minutes later it was the Caps being rewarded for gaining the offensive zone with speed.  It started with a defensive zone faceoff win by Jason Chimera to John Carlson.  From behind the Capitals’ net, Carlson moved the puck up to Joel Ward, who relayed it ahead to Mikhail Grabovski steaming through the neutral zone.  Grabovski bumped the puck ahead to Jason Chimera at the St. Louis blue line, who wristed a shot at Halak.  With Halak leaving another rebound, it was Grabovski darting down the slot to flip the loose puck behind Halak to give the Caps a 3-0 lead with 4:19 left in the period and end Halak’s evening.

St. Louis got one back early in the second period on a power play when Vladimir Sobotka took advantage of the puck sliding off the end of Alexander Urbom’s stick, wristing it past goalie Braden Holtby at 5:29 of the second period.  The three-goal lead was restored just less than four minutes later on a power play for the Caps.  Nicklas Backstrom set it up from the right wing wall, sliding the puck to John Carlson at the top of the offensive zone.  Carlson one timed the puck through several Blues players and over the left pad of relief goalie Brian Elliott to make it 4-1 and end the scoring portion of the evening.

Other stuff…

-- The power play goal by John Carlson was the first allowed by the Blues on the road this season after 15 successful road kills.

-- Alex Ovechkin ended the evening tied with the Blues’ Alexander Steen in goals with 17 after his two-goal effort. 

-- This was only the second time this season Steen was held without a point.  In both instances the Blues lost.

-- Nicklas Backstrom recorded three assists for the third time this season.  He leads the league in games with three or more assists.  He is the only player with four three-point games this season so far.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s two goal effort was his fourth multi-goal game of the season, the most multi-goal games in the league so far.  In his last 82 games Ovechkin has 60 goals.

--  The three-goal win was the widest margin of victory over the Blues since the Caps beat them, 4-1, on October 7, 1995.

-- The 47 shots faced by Braden Holtby tied a career high for a regular season game set earlier this year against Winnipeg.  It is a career high in shots faced in regulation.  His 46 saves is a career high for a regular season game.

-- Boy, something just is not right with the second line.  Martin Erat, Troy Brouwer, and Brooks Laich had no points and only two shots on goal for the evening.  They are more like a third line at this point.  In fact, the even strength ice time for the players on the second (35:43) and third line (35:57) were very close.

-- The Caps were very good on faceoffs in the ends.  In the offensive zone they were 10-for-14 (71.4 percent), and in the defensive zone they were 15-for-28 (53.6 percent).

-- The 15:41 in ice time for Jaroslav Halak was his quickest hook since he gave up three goal on 10 shots in just 7:41 in a 5-3 loss to San Jose on March 19, 2011.

In the end…

It is not often the Caps get something of a laugher against a quality opponent.  This one qualifies as their best effort of the season.  Not as satisfying, perhaps, as the 7-0 pasting of Philadelphia to open the month, but this was a better hockey effort.  It made the final top end numbers somewhat misleasding.  For example, there is the anatomy of score effects. 

From the drop of the puck until the Caps scored the first goal of the game…

• Shots on goal: St. Louis – 0, Washington 2 (including the first Ovechkin goal)
• Shots blocked: St. Louis – 2, Washington – 4
• Shots missed: St. Louis – 4, Washington – 2
• Total shot attempts: St. Louis— 6, Washington - 8

From the first goal to the Caps’ second goal, it looked like this…

• Shots on goal: St. Louis – 8, Washington – 2 (including the second Ovechkin goal). 
• Shots blocked: St. Louis – 1, Washington – 0. 
• Shots missed: St. Louis – 1, Washington – 0. 
• Total shot attempts: St. Louis – 10, Washington – 2

From the second Caps goal to their third it looked like this…

• Shots on goal: St. Louis – 2, Washington – 2 (including the Grabovski goal)
• Shots blocked: St. Louis – 2, Washington – 1
• Shots missed: St. Louis – 2, Washington – 1
• Total shot attempts: St. Louis 6, Washington – 4

From 3-0 to game’s end…

• Shots on goal: St. Louis – 37, Washington - 14
• Shots blocked: St. Louis – 17, Washington - 7
• Shots missed: St. Louis – 9, Washington - 14
• Total shot attempts: St. Louis – 63, Washington 35

It was hockey’s equivalent of rope-a-dope.  In the larger context of the Caps tendency to allow a lot of shot attempts, it was one more instance.  But under the circumstances, it was not altogether surprising.  And given the way Braden Holtby has played (10-3-0, 2.25, .937, and one shutout in his last 13 appearances), the outcome was not entirely surprising, either.

The win leaves the Capitals on top of the Metropolitan Division for the first time in the short history of the new divisional alignment.  That might not last past tomorrow night, when second-place Pittsburgh hosts Anaheim, but they will be playing for the division lead when they face the Penguins on Wednesday.  It was a good start to a week that might yet get better.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 7

The Washington Capitals were outscored at even strength, were blanked on their power play, and saved barely 90 percent of the shots they faced this week.  And yet, it was their fifth straight winning week.  Proof that it’s not “how,” it’s “how many”… wins, that is.

Record: 2-1-0

The fifth straight winning week made the Caps 10-3-2 over those five weeks and 6-1-1 for the month of November.  If you are looking at quality of competition, the Caps looked as bad against the high-altitude Colorado Avalanche in Denver as they did against the Avs at lower altitude in Washington in October.  In that game they did not have a chance to succumb to their annoying habit of blowing third period leads.  They returned to that habit against Columbus before coming back late and winning in overtime.  The Caps turned the tables on the Detroit Red Wings in the last game of the week, coming back from two goals down in the third period to force extra time, where they made it a winning week in the freestyle competition.

Offense: 2.67/game (season: 3.00 / rank:T-8^th)

It was not an especially prolific week for the Caps, but it was a balanced one.  Six player shared in the eight goals for the week, Joel Ward and Alex Ovechkin with the two-goal efforts.  There were 14 players recording points, with Mikhail Grabovski and John Carlson (both 1-2-3 for the week) the somewhat unlikely leaders.

Something odd, but familiar, took place in the last game of the week.  Head coach Adam Oates had been experimenting (he seems to do more of that than a graduate organic chemistry student) with a top line of Martin Erat joining Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom on the left wing, dropping Marcus Johansson down to the second line centering Brooks Laich and Troy Brouwer.  That was not working.  Through two games and two periods those two lines combined for one goal, that by Brooks Laich (assisted by Steve Oleksy, not either of his linemates) in the first period of the game against the Red Wings.

Then, to start the third period of the game against Detroit, Oates shook things up again.  On the first even strength face off of the period (the Caps started the period on a power play), Oates sent out his third line, the most consistent in its assembly and production over the last few weeks.  The next shift saw the return of the Johansson-Backstrom-Ovechkin line.  The result?  Nineteen seconds into its shift, Johansson fed Ovechkin for a goal that brought the Caps to within a goal of the Red Wings and propelled them to a successful third period.  They tied the game later, then won in a Gimmick.  It looked for the time being as if the first line was back.  Now, about that second line…

Defense: 3.33/game (season: 2.85 / rank:20^th )

The Caps broke a streak of sorts last week.  Going into Week 7 Washington was riding a streak of 12 games in which they allowed opponents 30 or more shots on goal.  The streak had not caused any undue harm to the Caps’ win-loss record, posting an 8-3-1 record in the process.  But that might be the kind of thing that, should it continue, puts too much wear and tear on goalies. 

The Caps broke that streak against the Columbus Blue Jackets, allowing the Blue Jackets “only” 27 shots on goal, the lowest total by an opponent since Dallas recorded 21 shots on goal in a 2-1 win back on October 5^th.  Not that it was a perfect week, or all that much an improvement.  The 101 shots by opponents for the week were heavily front-loaded, 36 of them coming in the first period of games, 37 of them in the second period.

Then there is the matter of possession.  It is something the Caps have struggled with all season at 5-on-5, and this week was not an exception.  Their ratios of for/against Corsi and Fenwick at 5-on-5 overall were on the wrong side of 50 percent in the games against Colorado (45.7 percent Corsi/47.8 percent Fenwick) and Detroit (47.1/48.3) and barely over 50 percent against Columbus (50.6/50.8).  In 5-on-5 close situations the Caps were underwater in each of the three games against Colorado (42.2/44.0), Columbus (48.7/47.1), and Detroit (46.4/47.9).  Given the shot totals, the Caps are still allowing too much on the defensive side of the ledger (source: extraskater.com).

Goaltending: 3.23 GAA / .901 save percentage (season: 2.75 / .918 / 1 shutout)

Braden Holtby got all the minutes this week, and all things considered it might not have been his best seven-day stretch, but he fought through things to scratch out a pair of wins to end the week.  There was a “glass half full/glass half empty” aspect to the week, though.  In the “glass half full” sense, he had an even strength save percentage of .933 in the first period of games and a .967 save percentage in the second period.  On the flip side, there is that .765 save percentage at even strength in the third period (13 saves on 17 shots).  Perhaps it is shot volumes that keeps Holtby’s mind from wandering.  Three of the four goals scored against him in the third period came in the last ten minutes of the period.

Power Play: 0-11 / 0.0 percent (season: 24.4 percent / rank: 2^nd)

Three games, three blanks on the power play.  The streak matches the Caps longest drought of the season on the man advantage.  The 0-for-11 for the week extended the Caps streak of power plays without a goal to 14, dating back to the second period of 4-3 Gimmick loss to Phoenix to close Week 6.

It might be thought of as an instance of regression in this respect.  Alex Ovechkin is the primary trigger man on the power play.  If you look at his five year performance ending with last season, he shot to a 13.1 percent rate at 5-on-4, 64 goals on 488 shots (source: stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  Even if you consider the “Oates effect” from the changes last season, Ovechkin had 16 goals on 71 shots.  That works out to a 22.5 percent shooting rate.  Quite an improvement compared to the five-year context.  Coming into this week Ovechkin was 7-for-26 shooting at 5-on-4 (26.9 percent).  He was 0-for-4 for the week, dropping him to 23.3 percent.  Not inconsistent with last year’s performance, but still much better than his five-year conversion rate.

As for the rest of the power play squad, it is worth noting that it was John Carlson who led the week in power play shots on goal (six), making up for the absence of a wonky Mike Green.  There is the matter of performance, and if Green is going to miss any more time, Carlson has to keep up the pressure.  On the other side, there was Troy Brouwer, who in 13:08 of power play time did not record a shot on goal.

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Penalty Killing: 9-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 87.3 percent / rank: 2^nd)

Since putting together a streak of 35 shorthanded situations without allowing a power play goal, the Caps are 20-for-26 over their last six-plus games (76.9 percent), including 9-for-11 this week (81.8 percent).  This might have been a really nice week, a return to perfection, but for a stumble early on in their game against Detroit to end the week.

What happened against the Red Wings might be an example of past events influencing future behavior.  The first Wings goal was a matter of a bit of passive play by the Caps.  Johan Franzen had the puck at the left point and was looking over his options.  Not seeing a passing option, he started to walk the puck down the left wing boards.  As he was doing so, defenseman Steve Oleksy and forward Joel Ward were on that side of the ice, paying attention but not pressing the issue.  

As Franzen moved in, Oleksy was low and inside the faceoff dot, Ward outside the dot but above Franzen and not in a position to force a decision.  Franzen walked the puck in slowly, getting below the dot, but Oleksy did not come out to challenge, and Ward did not drop down to pressure him.  It allowed Franzen what amounted to a free look at the net, and he picked the corner over goalie Braden Holtby’s right shoulder, ricocheting the puck off iron and in.

Franzen would score later from the same side of the ice at even strength on what looked like a missed coverage deep in the zone.  That set up a situation on the Wings power play late in the second period where you had a hot shooter on the left side of the ice with the puck.  The Caps might have been forgiven for now paying lots of attention to what Franzen was doing,  However, when Franzen showed “shot,” and the Caps slid to that side of the ice, Franzen had a passing lane to Danny DeKeyser on the right side, who one timed the puck into the open side of the net.  It made for a “not bad” week when it might have ended a lot better.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 7-7 (season: 39-44; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.93 / rank: 18^th)

The even week masks one that started poorly and ended well at evens.  All of the goals scored in the game against Colorado to open the week came at even strength, leaving the Caps in a 1-4 hole.  Washington made up the difference over the last two games, outscoring Columbus, 3-2, at even strength in their 4-3 overtime win (including the game-winner at 4-on-4), and 3-1 against Detroit in the 4-3 trick shot win over the Red Wings (including two to tie the game in the third period).

Overall it was a breakeven week in more than goals.  Shots were virtually even, 79 for the Caps and 80 for their opponents in the three games.  Only against Columbus did the Caps have an edge, 31-25, but they did not have large deficits against either of the other teams.

It was an odd week in one respect, though.  There was the usual high-volume from Ovechkin (14 of the 79 even strength shots), but there was also the feast-or-famine performance sprinkled in.  Jason Chimera had eight shots on goal at even strength, but he had five of them against Columbus, none against Colorado.  Mike Green played in two games for the week, recording six even strength shots against Colorado, none against Columbus.  Marcus Johansson sandwiched a pair of no-shot efforts at even strength around a four-shot total against Columbus. 

Faceoffs: 83-175 / 47.4 percent (season: 48.5 percent / rank: 23^rd)

The week was worse than it looks.  In no game did the Caps win more than 50 percent of draws overall, and their performance in the ends was poor.  In the three games they won only 33 of 77 offensive zone draws (42.9 percent).  In the defensive end it was hardly better – 23 for 52 (44.2 percent). 

Part of it was unexpectedly poor performances in games – Nicklas Backstrom going 0-for-10 in the offensive end against Columbus.  Part of it was a lot of little slips among players – four of six players taking draws in the defensive zone against Columbus being under 50 percent, all six of them being under 50 percent in the defensive zone against Detroit.  What it means is that over the last three weeks the Caps were under 50 percent in each, only 47.1 percent overall. 

Goals For/Against by Period:

The third period saved the week for the Caps.  They could not dig out of a hole against Colorado, but the Caps got a late goal from Mikhail Grabovski against Columbus after the Caps blew a third period lead, then they scored a pair in the third against Detroit, the latter of the two being Michael Latta’s first NHL goal, to tie a game that they would win in extra time. 

It masks a relatively deficient first period, extending the Caps tendency to start games in sluggish fashion.  Washington was outscored by a 3-1 margin in the first period of the three games.  It left the Caps with only 11 first period goals for the season.  Only Florida, Carolina, and Buffalo have scored fewer.   None of those three teams are in the playoff mix, and Florida and Buffalo are ranked 28^th and 30^th in the league in standings points.  This is not company the Caps want to keep.

In the end…

The Caps did not do it this week with dominant play; they did it this week by finding a way.  Poor first periods, poor faceoff performance, poor possession numbers, and they still managed to scrape out a pair of wins in three games, putting them on the cusp of the Metropolitan Division lead, a lead they can take if the defeat the St. Louis Blues on Sunday evening to begin Week 8.

Consider the wins “banked” against a schedule that gets more difficult this week.  It is a tough week in that the Caps have four games coming up in the next seven days, all of them in the playoff mix of their respective division and with a combined record of 47-26-6.

If the Caps come out of the coming week leading the Metropolitan Division, it will be quite a week.  To do so, they will have to play better than they did this past week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 21: Blues at Capitals, November 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return from their one-game road trip to Detroit to host the St. Louis Blues Sunday evening at Verizon Center.  The Caps return home fresh off a 4-3 trick shot win over the Red Wings and bring a 6-1-1 record for the month of November into the game. 

The Blues will be coming to Washington the day after a 4-2 win over Carolina.  It is not as if the Blues get out of the house often, so to speak.  Their visit to Washington will be only their seventh road game this season, which will tie Boston for fewest road contests in the league.

St. Louis is the hottest team in the league (with Phoenix and Minnesota) with an 8-1-1 record over their last ten games.  They outscored their opponents by a 35-20 margin in those ten games, three of the wins coming by margins of three or more goals.  Their power play is 9-for-38 in that span (23.7 percent), while their penalty kill is 28-for-31 (90.3 percent).

Balance has been the key, scoring wise.  Fifteen different players have goals over the last ten games, led by Alexander Steen (nine) and Alex Pietrangelo (four).  Nineteen players shared in the points, led by Steen (9-4-13), David Backes (2-9-11), T.J. Oshie (2-8-10), and Pietrangelo (4-6-10).

Steen has packed a season’s worth of production into his first 18 games.  He leads the club and the league in goals scored with 17, a pace that would produce 77 per 82 games (bet the under).  Almost as incredible, he has points in 17 of his 18 games, including a 13-game streak that he will bring to Verizon Center on Sunday.  Only the San Jose Sharks held him off the score sheet, blanking him in a 6-2 win over the Blues in what is St. Louis’ worst loss of the season to date.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  Is possession your thing?  Then the St. Louis Blues are for you.  Only the Chicago Blackhawks have a better ratio of Fenwick for events to those against in 5-on-5 close situations.  And it shows up in how they tilt the ice, shooting wise.  Only Chicago and the Minnesota Wild have higher shares of total shots taken than St. Louis in 5-on-5 close situations (source: extraskater.com).

2.  Talk about your lucky 13’s.  So far this season the Blues have allowed 13 goals in each of the first, second, and third periods of games.  St. Louis is the only team in the league that has a positive margin of five or more goals scored to goals allowed in each period overall this season.

3.  No team in the league has scored first in more games than St. Louis.  Fifteen times in eighteen games they scored first and play to a 12-1-2 record when doing so.

4.  Only Minnesota has allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 (18) than St. Louis (25).  The Blues are plus-16 at 5-on-5 this season.  Only Chicago (plus-21) and Anaheim (plus-17) are better.

5.  St. Louis is the only team in the league perfect in killing penalties on the road.  They are 15-for-15.  The flip side of that is the frequency.  Only once have the Blues faced more than three shorthanded situations in any of their six road games.  They faced four when they beat Chicago, 3-2 in a Gimmick, back on October 17^th.

1.  Washington leads the NHL in special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages) at 111.7.

2.  Bettman’s Folly has been kind to the Caps this season.  Their five wins in six games is tied with Winnipeg for the league lead in wins.  Their 57.9 percent shooting percentage is third in the NHL, led by Nicklas Backstrom, who is 4-for-4 in his attempts so far.

3.  You are probably not surprised that Alex Ovechkin leads the league in average power play ice time per game. What you might not know is that he is averaging more than a minute more (5:06) than that of the next ranked winger, the Islanders’ Kyle Okposo (4:03).

4.  Speaking of power play, Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom rank one-two in power play points.  Ovechkin is 7-6-13, and Backstrom is 1-11-12.  The surprise here, though, might be Marcus Johansson, who is tied for 18^th (with, among others: Henrik Zetterberg, Henrik Sedin, Joe Thornton, and Mike Green).  He is 1-6-7 on the power play.

5.  There are five teams with two players among the league leaders in shooting with percentages of 20 percent of greater, including Washington.  Joel Ward leads the league at 28.1 percent; Mikhail Grabovski is tied for 18^th at 20.7 percent.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Alex Pietrangelo

Alex Pietrangelo might be the best defenseman you have never heard of.  Such is the problem playing in St. Louis for a team that lacks stars and star quality, despite their superb record.  At age 23, the former first round pick (fourth overall in 2008) is already accomplished.  Since the 2010-2011 season, only four defensemen have more points than he does – Erik Karlsson, Keith Yandle, Dustin Byfuglien, and Kris Letang.  Only Letang and Zdeno Chara have a better plus-minus over that span. 

He is not just an offensive defenseman.  Pietrangelo averages more shorthanded ice time (3:21/game before Saturday’s game against Carolina) than any of the aforementioned defensemen, and he has been on the minus side of the ledger only three times in 18 games this season.  On a team whose motto might be “Relentlessly Effective,” Pietrangelo certainly makes his contributions in that regard.  He will be coming into Sunday’s game on a three-game points streak (including the game against Carolina), but what he does not have is a point against Washington in two career appearances.

Washington:  Troy Brouwer

Hey, you remember this guy, don’t you?  Big, strapping guy, plays right wing and mans the middle on the power play, scored at a 33-goal pace in last year’s abbreviated schedule?  One might be excused for wondering where Brouwer has been.  Since recording three goals in four games in late October, he is 2-1-3, minus-2, in his last 11 games.  He has more penalty minutes (18) than shots on goal (15) in that span, not necessarily what one would expect from a second line winger.  Even more disappointing, Brouwer has one even strength point this season, an insurance goal scored in a 4-1 win over Columbus on October 19^th.  Compare that to last season when he had 11 even strength goals and 16 points.

The second line has had some churning at center (Mikhail Grabovski, Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson) and at left wing (Laich, Martin Erat), but the common denominator has been Brouwer at right wing.  If the second line is going to put an end to having the adjective “disappointing” attached to it, Brouwer is going to have to be heard from.  He is 3-4-7, minus-2, in 16 career games against the Blues.

Keys:

1.  Space, the final frontier.  Any team coached by Ken Hitchcock is going to play a stifling, hound you all over the ice kind of defense.  Only three teams are allowing fewer shots on goal per game (25.3) than the Blues.  If the Caps are going to win, chances are they are going to have to solve that problem and create some space for themselves.  This is where the second line might have to make a statement.  Assuming that the second line for this game will be Brooks Laich, Martin Erat, and Troy Browuer, that group has a total of 79 shots on goal in 20 games.  Four shots on goal a game from a scoring line means you might get a goal every other game out of it, if their shooting percentage is good.  The Caps need more in this one.

2.  It would be keen to keep Steen from eighteen.  Alexander Steen scored his 17^th goal of the season against Carolina on Saturday night, his league-leading fourth game-winning goal of the season (tied with Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry).  And when he scores, the Blues win.  In 13 St. Louis wins this season Steen has at least one goal in 12 of them.  In five losses he scored in only two of them.  In 17 games against the Caps he is 4-5-9, plus-2.

3.  It’s better to be Halak-y than good.  Since Brian Elliott got the call against Carolina it would seem the goaltending chores in this one would fall to Jaroslav Halak.  You remember him, right Caps fans?   Well, he no longer torments the Capitals on a regular basis, but he has assembled a solid record since signing with the Blues after his remarkable 2010 post-season.  In 133 games with the Blues, Halak is 69-40-17, 2.24, .915, with 17 shutouts.  The odd statistic about his 2013-2014 season is that since he faced 30 shots in a 4-2 opening night win against Nashville, he has not faced as many as 30 shots in a game since in 13 appearances and has faced more than 25 shots only five times, once in his last eight games.

In the end…

This is not going to be a pleasant game to watch, let alone in which to play.  St. Louis is a burlier version of the old New Jersey Devils, almost robotic in their approach to the game, even with the higher-octane offense they have displayed thus far this season.  The Caps can match the Blues, size wise (both teams are likely to start nine skaters weighing at least 210 pounds), but the Blues have a more physical edge to their game (third in total penalty minutes per game, fifth in fighting majors).  These are two teams with identical November records (6-1-1), the difference being that while Washington forged that record after a slow start, the Blues have played more or less at that level all season.  The Capitals have the added incentive of being able to take over the Metropolitan Division lead with a win.  It should make for a an interesting – and an interesting benchmark – game for the Capitals.

Capitals 2 – Blues 1

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 20: Capitals 4 - Red Wings 3 (OT/Gimmick)

“You have to think about one shot. One shot is what it's all about. A deer's gotta be taken with one shot.  I try to tell people that - they don't listen.”

Michael Vronsky might have been talking about taking down a deer in “The Deer Hunter,” but one shot – one shot – was what it took for the Washington Capitals to take down the Detroit Red Wings last night, 4-3, in a trick shot competition.

What led up to that one shot was, to say the least, interesting.  It was Washington drawing early blood when Steve Oleksy stifled a pass from Danny DeKeyser to Justin Abdelkader at the Capitals’ blue line.  Oleksy bumped the puck up to Brooks Laich at the Detroit blue line.  Laich turned and carved a path through the right wing circle, then snapped a forehand off the winged wheel logo on goalie Jimmy Howard’s chest.  The puck popped up and dropped to the ice, teed up for Laich to chip a backhand from a severe angle into the net at 5:50, leaving Howard with nothing to do but go to the water bottle and think about the rebound he left.

Almost exactly ten minutes later Johan Franzen tied the game on a power play when he surveyed the situation from the left point, inched down the boards, saw that no Capital was coming out to challenge him, circled into the left wing circle, and snapped a shot through a screen, over goalie Braden Holtby’s right shoulder, off the pipe, and in.  Nothing but nothing but net…but it counted.

Less than three minutes later, with the clock under two minutes remaining in the period, it was Franzen again (we should never have pondered him in the prognosto), first watching as Tomas Tatar danced with the puck behind the Caps’ net, then sliding to his left as Tatar came out to Holtby’s left, finally taking a cross-crease feed from Tatar and snapping it in one motion behind Holtby to give the Wings the lead.

The second period went along quietly for almost 18 minutes, the only ripples being each team killing off the other’s power play.  Then, with 2:06 left in the period Tom Wilson was sent to the box for a holding penalty.  With just 12 seconds left in the power play and 18 seconds left in the period, Detroit made good on the opportunity.  Franzen was in the middle of this one, too. 

The play started with Jakub Kindl walking the Capitals’ blue line from left to right.  He sent the puck back across to Franzen along the left wing wall.  Franzen stepped in, and having already scored twice appeared to command the full attention of the Capital defenders, including Holtby, who squared up for a shot.  Franzen faked a drive and sent the puck across to Danny DeKeyser, who had almost an open net at which to shoot.  He did not miss, and the Red Wings took a 3-1 lead to the locker room after two periods.

It certainly looked as if Detroit’s recent woes -- four straight losses, the last three in extra time on home ice -- would end as the teams took the ice for the third period.  The idea of that became less certain in the fourth minute of the period.  It started with Nicklas Backstrom taking defenseman Jonathan Ericsson for a ride around the back of the Detroit cage.  Trying to fend off Ericsson, Backstrom lost his glove but not his stride.  He circled all the way through with Ericsson on him and left the puck in the left wing corner.  Perhaps incredibly, Marcus Johansson beat Pavel Datsyuk to the puck then spun away from Datsyuk and headed behind the net.  Before he got there, though, Johansson slid the puck to the bottom of the left wing circle where Alex Ovechkin was arriving.  Ovechkin snapped the puck through defenseman Niklas Kronwall’s legs and over Howard’s right shoulder to get the Caps within a goal at 3:19 of the third period.

It might have ended that way.  It certainly was not expected to change when the line of Jason Chimera, Joel Ward, and Michael Latta took the ice at 11:29 of the period.  It was not expected to change after Joel Ward carried the puck into the Detroit zone and slid a pass to Jason Chimera trying to beat Kyle Quincey down the middle of the ice.  When Quincey got a stick in the way of the pass to deflect the puck to the end boards, harm seemed to be avoided by the home team.  Even when the puck came back to Ward in the corner, who sent it to Karl Alzner at the point, there was no imminent threat.  Then Alzner sent the puck across to John Carlson, open at the right point.  Carlson tried to get something started by throwing the puck on net where a clot of bodies had appeared.  The puck bounced off someone..something…maybe an octopus, given the venue.  Whatever happened to the puck after leaving Carlson’s stick, it found its way to the ice laying at the top of the crease, just out of the range of Jimmy Howard’s stick. 

There stood Michael Latta.  Who stepped between Kyle Quincey and Pavel Datsyuk.  All alone.  With an open net in front of him.

One shot.

One goal.

Tie game.

(too dramatic?)

The lead gone, the Red Wings were playing to hang on and perhaps catch a break or a bounce.  They could catch neither in regulation, and despite having an abbreviated 46 second power play in overtime could not get either in the extra session.  That left it to the freestyle competition. 

The Red Wings, desperate to get the second point, resorted to trickery.  Todd Bertuzzi tried to execute a spin-o-rama, but it looked a bit like a rhinoceros executing a brisé in ballet.  Holtby watched the dance unfold and calmly poked the puck away.  That left it to Nicklas Backstrom skating slowly in on Howard.  As he got to the hash marks he darted to his left to get Howard to move.  When Howard opened the five hole to slide across, Backstrom took advantage.

One shot.

One goal.

Game over.

Other stuff…

-- The “one shot” theme certainly applied to Michael Latta’s first NHL goal.  It came on his only shot attempt of the game.

-- Backstrom leads the league in trick shot efficiency, hitting on all four of his attempts this season (he has the most goals of his fellow travelers at 100 percent).  Only Winnipeg’s Andrew Ladd has more goals (five).

-- Alex Ovechkin’s goal was his first point at 5-on-5 since the third period of a 4-1 win against Edmonton on October 24^th.

-- Nicklas Backstrom led the team with six shots on goal.  It was close, but not a personal best.  He has had seven shots in a game three times.  No, shootout tries do not count.

-- Brooks Laich broke an 11-game drought without a goal when he recorded his third of the year in the first period. 

-- Maybe it was efficiency, maybe it was scoring, but the Caps finished the night with 70.2 percent of their shot attempts on goal.  The other side of that is that the Red Wings had 61 shot attempts to the Caps’ 47.

-- From the “thanks for coming, here’s your hat" file, Michael Latta did not skate another shift after scoring his game-tying, career-first goal.

-- The penalty killers are showing some fraying on the edges.  It is the fourth time in the last seven games opponents scored at least one power play goal, including the two scored by Detroit in five tries last night.  Over those seven games the Caps are 25-for-31 (80.7 percent).  The Caps have also allowed five or more opportunities four times in those seven games, allowing at least one goal in three of them.

-- On the other side, last night was the third game in a row that the power play came up empty for Washington.  That ties a season high streak set in the last three games of October.

-- That is 11 of his last 13 appearances in which Braden Holtby faced 30 or more shots.  One of the instances in which he did not was when he was pulled after allowing three goals on 14 shots in 12:48 of work against Calgary on October 26^th.

-- Looking at the time on ice for the defense with Mike Green out yields the expected and the strange.  Yes, John Carlson was going to get Mike Green’s power play time (6:43), and he was going to get big penalty killing minutes with Karl Alzner (5:51 apiece) on his was to more than 32 minutes of ice time.  But Tyson Strachan getting almost 22 minutes in his call-up from Hershey?  His 19:16 at even strength being more than Alzner got (18:21)? 

-- Then there was Steve Oleksy.  He finished the night with barely 10 minutes of ice time and had only three shifts in the third period.  That writing was put on the wall when Johan Franzen scored two goals from Oleksy’s side of the ice in the first period, once when he was on the other side of the crease entirely, tied up with Darren Helm.

In the end, it was a night that did not go perfectly, but it was still one in which a Caps fan can take some satisfaction.  It was a game in which the other team blew a third period lead.  It was a night in which the other team had to watch a guy get his first NHL goal.  It was a night in which the other team looked slow and disengaged over long stretches, struggling with confidence in the midst of a losing streak.  It was a night in which the other team’s fans had to file out silently, muttering under their breath about the one that got away.

Now the Caps come home for a big week of three games against three teams of wildly different styles – the suffocating system of St. Louis, the persistent pressure of Pittsburgh, and the mélange of… well, something that starts with an “M” of Montreal. But this is a team that is now 6-1-1 in November.  They’ll be rested, ready, and rarin’ to go.