Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Michal Kempny

Michal Kempny

“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
-- Marcus Aurelius

 

The quote attributed to Marcus Aurelius is usually applied to matters of psychic injury, not physical ones.  But hockey players, like any professional athletes, are high-performance, finely tuned individuals.  And when Michal Kempny suffered a severe torn hamstring injury in a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning in March 2019, an injury that required surgery and a long rehabilitation, it was reasonable to believe that he would be something less than full strength when he returned to the ice.  Rehab takes a player only so far, the rest coming by playing one’s self back to full strength. 

In fact, Kempny was held out of the first eight games of the 2019-2020 season and did not make his debut until October 18^th.  When he did return, he did so with gusto, posting points in eight of the first 11 games he played, going 3-8-11, plus-9, while averaging more than 19 minutes of ice time per game and helping the Caps to a 9-0-2 record in those games.

That would be a torrid pace for a completely healthy defenseman to maintain, and Kempny was not likely 100 percent.  Over his next 21 games he recorded only a pair of assists and tok a minus-1 rating.  The Caps still went 14-6-1 over those 21 games, but for Kempny it was still a matter of playing himself back to full health.  He broke out of that slump with points in three straight games in early January for the first time in two months, but he could not sustain that mini-run, either.  He finished the season 0-2-2 in his last 23 games, although he did post a plus-10 rating, suggesting his two-way game made strides.

Fearless’ Take…

Kempny has become a bit of an underrated offensive contributor.  Although he was coming back from a serious leg injury, his per-game production did not suffer much of a fall off from the 2018-2019 season.  Last season he averaged 0.08 goals per game compared to 0.05 this season, and his points slipped slightly, from 0.35 per game last season to 0.31 per game this season.

Cheerless’ Take…

Kempny did not have a goal in the last 53 games he played (on 68 shots on goal), none after October 25^th.  He had an odd home-road split, too.  He recorded nine points at home and nine on the road, but he was a plus-17 on the road, while he was just plus-2 on home ice.  He also had 20 penalty minutes on the road while taking only two in home games.

Odd Kempny Fact… Wheh Kempny got minutes, the Caps won.  In 33 games in which he skated at least 19 minutes, Washington was 26-5-2.  Fewer than 19 minutes, and the Caps were just 10-11-4. And the Caps were just 5-4-2 in the 11 games Kempny missed.

Odd Kempny Fact II… In his two full seasons in Washington, Kempny has fewer giveaways per 60 minutes (2.01/60 minutes) that any other Caps defenseman who has appeared in more than ten games with the exception of Radko Gudas (1.93/60 minutes).

Odd Kempny Fact III… Kempny is one of 11 defensemen in Caps history to play in at least 150 games (151), record at least 0.25 points per game (0.30), and post a rating of plus-40 or better (plus-44).

Game to Remember… November 1, 2019.  Sometimes the memories are of goals scored, and sometimes the memories are of helpers.  For Michal Kempny, it was the latter to open the month of November when the Caps hosted the Buffalo Sabres at Capital One Arena.  Washington buried the Sabres under an avalanche of goals in the first period, scoring four times over a span of less than five minutes to take a 4-0 lead.  Kempny assisted on the third goal, picking up the primary assist on Jakub Vrana’s second goal of the game.  Buffalo got one back mid-way through the second period, but late in the period Kempny hustled to keep a loose puck in the offensive end and fired a shot from the left point that Tom Wilson redirected past goalie Linus Ullmark to make it a 5-1 game.  Kempny recorded his third primary assist of the game in the third period when he took a drop pass from Alex Ovechkin just inside the Sabres’ blue line and fired the puck to the front of the net where T.J. Oshie was closing.  Oshie chipped the puck past Ullmark, and the Caps had their final margin in a 6-1 victory.  It was Kempny’s first three-point game as a Capital.

Game to Forget… December 16, 2019.  We are of a mind that for an NHL hockey team over the course of a regular season, there are 20 games it will win, no matter what, and 20 games it will lose, no matter what, leaving the remaining games to determine whether the season is successful or a bust.  When the Caps visited the Columbus Blue Jackets in mid-December, it appeared to be one of those games they were going to lose, no matter what.  The Blue Jackets were not especially dominating, but they cobbled together a goal by Eric Robinson in the first period and a pair of goals from Oliver Bjorkstrand in the third period to deal the Caps a 3-0 loss.  For Kempny’s part, he was on the ice for all three Columbus goals to earn him his only minus-3 rating of the season.  He finished with two shots on goal and a credited hit in 14:18 of ice time (his third lowest of the season) in what was a rather empty line on the score sheet.

Postseason…

Things started poorly for Michal Kempny in the postseason, got worse, and then got very quiet.  He had one point in the three-game round robin phase (an assist in the Caps’ lone win, a 2-1 win over the Boston Bruins).  He then went without a point in Games 1 and 2 against the New York Islanders in the opening playoff round, posting a minus-3 in a 4-2 Game 1 loss.  His 19 minutes of ice time in Game 2 were his last minutes of the season; he was held out of the final three games of the series.

Looking Ahead…

Michal Kempny has two more years to run on his four-year/$10 million contract signed in June 2018.  He does not occupy a crowded cohort (cap hit of $2.0-$3.0 million, age 27-33), but he does compare favorably with the others in the group.  The difficulty is that he is in a crowded cohort on his own team.  Call it “The Uncertainty Group.”  The Caps have decisions to make with Brenden Dillon and Radko Gudas (pending unrestricted free agents), and even Nick Jensen, who is in the same age/cap hit cohort as Kempny, with three years left on his contract.

In the end…

Michal Kempny is a huge question mark heading into the off season.  Was his drop off a product of his being not fully recovered from a serious injury, or was the drop off a permanent regression in his level of play.  He came out of the 2018 Stanley Cup run being the darling of the trade-deadline acquisition crowd, the key final element that provided stability among the defensive pairs.  But this season was uneven in the extreme with respect to his performance, resulting in his being a healthy scratch late in the regular season and again as the Caps faced playoff elimination.  The Caps are going to be asked to make a bet on his returning to full health, and full production, next season.  Given the other question marks at the position, it might not be a bet they are willing to make and could look to move him elsewhere.  It is one of the story lines that bears watching in the weeks and months ahead.

Grade: B-

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

 

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Nick Jensen

Nick Jensen

“Never be in a hurry; do everything quietly and in a calm spirit. Do not lose your inner peace for anything whatsoever, even if your whole world seems upset.”
-- Saint Francis de Sales

The TSN.ca scouting report on Washington Capitals defenseman Nick Jensen states among his assets, “is a solid puck-moving defenseman with outstanding speed and good defensive instincts. Can produce decent offensive totals at lower levels, too (let’s put a pin in that one for a moment).”  It concludes that his career potential is “speedy, puck moving defenseman.”  A lot of that might be interpreted as code, describing a defenseman of somewhat limited physical skills who gets by on smarts, guile, and playing angles.  That is not necessarily a bad thing, since the object of the exercise for one who plays “defense” is to keep the opponent from scoring.  How that gets done is of little practical importance, so long as the opponents are not successful scoring.

Looking at even strength situations alone, Jensen has some impressive numbers.  Most important, he was on ice for 0.040 even strength goals per even strength minute he was on the ice.  Only Jonas Siegenthaler among Caps defensemen had a lower number (0.034).  This might be explained away as a product of matchups, that Jensen, who skated primarily as a third pair defenseman, did not face the highest caliber of competition in terms of offense among opponents.  Nevertheless, Jensen played that role reasonably well, making up for an offensive part of his game that has not expressed itself much with the Caps.  Unsurprisingly, the Caps did better when Jensen skated in contests in which no even strength goals were scored when he was on the ice – 22-8-4 in those games, while the Caps were 19-11-4 in games in which Jensen was on ice for at least one even strength goal against.

One might conclude that Jensen’s ability to prevent (or avoid) unpleasantness in his own end would make his limited offensive contributions gravy for the club.  That was not necessarily so.  The Caps were 5-2-1 in the eight games in which he recorded a point; not bad, but not great, either. 

Fearless’ Take…

Nick Jensen turned not hitting into something of an art form in 2019-2020.  In 35 games in which he was not credited with a hit, the Caps were 24-6-5; they were 17-13-3 in the 33 games in which he was credited with at least one hit.  Blocking shots was another matter.  When he had at least one, the Caps were 30-8-5; when he did not have one, they were 11-11-3. 

Cheerless’ Take…

There have been 124 skaters who have come through the Caps organization who did not record a goal for the team.  None have played more games without doing so than Nick Jensen, who is still looking for his first goal as a Capital after 88 regular season games (next on the list is Bob Paradise, who did not score a goal in 70 games as a Capital). 

Odd Jensen Fact… Nick Jensen has not scored a goal since he potted a pair on October 11, 2018 for the Detroit Red Wings against the Toronto Maple Leafs.  His streak of 145 regular season games without a goal (on 149 shots) is the longest current streak in the NHL. 

Odd Jensen Fact II… Jensen was one of 11 skaters in the NHL this season to skate more than 1,200 minutes, yet have fewer than four of those minutes be spent on power plays. 

Odd Jensen Fact III… Ten players in Caps history have appeared in at least 20 games without having scored a goal for the team.  Jensen is the only one to do so and have a positive plus-minus rating (plus-4).

Game to Remember… October 2, 2019.  On Opening Night of the 2019-2020 season, the Caps visited St. Louis as the foil for the Blues’ Stanley Cup banner raising celebration.  When the Blues scored in the first minute, and again seven minutes later to take a 2-0 lead, it looked as if it would be a happy night for Blues Nation.  The Caps halved the lead on an Alex Ovechkin goal late in the period, and that margin held up well into the second period, until the Caps went on a power play.  With just seconds left in the man advantage, and the Caps having put out a squad anticipating returning to even strength, Lars Eller won a faceoff to the right of goalie Jordan Binnington.  The puck came back to Nick Jensen at the left point, and he fed it across to his partner, Dmitry Orlov, for a one-timer from above the right wing circle that sailed over the glove of Binnington to tie the game, 2-2, with just seven seconds left on the man advantage.  Jensen earned the primary assist on the goal, his first (and only) power play point of the season, and his first power play point since November 15, 2017, when he had his first NHL power play point (an assist) for the Detroit Red Wings in an 8-2 win over the Calgary Flames. 

Game to Forget… October 10, 2019. Winning in Nashville is always a difficult chore for the Caps, and this season’s trip was no different.  The teams exchanged the first five goals of the game, the Caps taking a lead twice and the Predators tying the game twice before the Caps took a 3-2 lead midway through the second period.  The Caps added to that lead on an Alex Ovechkin goal, but Nashville tied the game on goals barely a minute apart early in the third period, goals for which Jensen was on ice.  The Caps regained the lead ten minutes into the final frame, but the hosts tied the game once more, then took the lead for a final time just 28 seconds after tying the game.  And Jensen was on ice for that goal as well.  He was on ice for three even strength goals against, his high for the season, as the Caps lost, 6-5.

Postseason…

Eight games, no points, a minus-1 rating.  None of that was surprising, but there was the odd circumstance of his posting only two shots on goal over his first five games (both of them in the opening game of the round robin against Tampa Bay), and then posting six shots on goal in the last three games of the opening round series loss to the New York Islanders.

Looking Ahead…

Nick Jensen has three years remaining on the four-year/$10.0 million contract he signed with the Caps in February 2019.  The cap hit is equal to that of teammate Michal Kempny, whose own four-year deal has two years to run.  The two are linked in odd ways, Jensen being the product of the Caps trying to catch the lightning in a bottle they enjoyed when they traded for Kempny the previous season (and who became an important element in the Caps’ Stanley Cup run).  Jensen, also obtained in trade, did not have the intended similar effect, but it is the comparison to Kempny that he might suffer from most.

In the end…

Nick Jensen had a quiet start to the 2019-2020 season, and that might be the charitable was of putting it (0-2-2, minus-10, in his first four ten-game installments).  His lack of production did not seem to matter, as the Caps compiled a 27-8-5 record over those four segments.  But things reversed themselves in the latter stages of the season, Jensen improving to 0-6-6, plus-11, over his last three segments, but the Caps going just 14-12-3 over that period.  It made for an odd season that many might not have taken much notice of, but Jensen seemed patient enough to let his game develop and was a solid performer as the season wound down.  Whether he can build on that is what will bear watching as he and the Caps move forward.

Grade: B-

Photo: Nick Wass/Associated Press

 

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas

“Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.”
-- Napoleon Bonaparte

 

One-for-one, player-for-player trades are not altogether common in the NHL.  Less so position-for-position.  Even less so such trades within a division between long-time rivals.  And right after the 2018-2019 season ended?  Those were the circumstances that converged on June 14, 2019, when the Caps traded defenseman Matt Niskanen to the Philadelphia Flyers, straight up, for defenseman Radko Gudas.  In the trade, the Caps got younger (Gudas was 29, Niskanen was 32), cheaper (Gudas had a cap hit of $3.35 million entering the last year of his contract; Niskanen carried a $5.75 million cap hit for two more seasons).  And there was evidence that Gudas’ underlying numbers were superior.  The trade looked pretty good from the Caps’ side of the exchange.

When Gudas opened the season with five assists and only two “minus” games in his first 15 games as a Cap, one could almost forget he was most recently a Flyer. But then, things started to slowly unravel.  He had one point (an assist) in his next dozen games and posted a minus-1 rating.  He did rebound to go 2-6-8, plus-11 in his next 18 games, but he was 0-1-1, minus-1 in ten games after that when his string of consecutive games in the lineup ended at 55 games, over which he was 2-13-15, plus-20.  Gudas dressed for only eight of the last 14 games of the regular season, going without a point and posting a minus-5 rating.

Fearless’ Take…

Gudas was another of those players who exhibited something of a “countercyclical” relationship with respect to ice time.  Not a particularly effective offensive contributor, he would not be in the lineup in games the Caps trailed.  On the other hand, he would be getting more minutes when the Caps were more successful, meaning the team’s 12-2-2 record when he logged 18 or more minutes was not surprising.  

Cheerless’ Take…

The deterioration of Gudas’ production over the course of the season was unfortunate, especially since the early part of the season made the trade for Niskanen look like a stroke of genius.  It took Gudas a while to record his first goal (he went his first 36 games without one), but he was still 1-11-12, plus-18, over his first four ten-game segments.  But he started slipping in the fifth segment (1-1-2, plus-4) and fell hard in the last two segments (0-1-1, minus-7).  Not even his underlying numbers (shot attempts-for at 5-on-5) could help much.  He was 51.7 percent in the 2019 portion of the season, 50.7 percent in the 2020 portion of the season).

Odd Gudas Fact… Gudas had a reputation of being a player who sometimes – well, often – strayed outside the lines of the rule book, or at least civil behavior on the ice.  With the Caps this season, though, that seem to be little of a liability.  Washington was 11-3-1 in the games in which he was charged with at least one penalty.

Odd Gudas Fact II… In a related vein, those 15 games in which he was charged with at least one penalty was a significant reduction from last season in Philadelphia, in which he was hit with penalties in 24 games (the Flyers were just 9-11-4 in those games).

Game to Remember… January 7, 2020.  The headlines after the Caps’ game against the Ottawa Senators on January 7^th would focus on Alex Ovechkin scoring a pair of goals to tie Teemu Selanne for 11^th place on the all-time goal scoring list, but the night at Capital One Arena belonged to Radko Gudas in one respect.  His moment came in the second period, with the game tied, 1-1.  Jakub Vrana dug the puck out of a scrum just inside the offensive blue line and fed it into the corner for T.J. Oshie, who tried to feed Michal Kempny pinching down into the right wing circle.  The pass was led too far for Kempny, but he tracked the puck down and fed it back to Evgeny Kuznetsov at the right point.  Walking the puck along the blue line to the middle, he fed Gudas for a one-timer from the top of the left-wing circle that beat goalie Craig Anderson cleanly to give the Caps a lead they would not relinquish on their way to a 6-1 win.  It was Gudas’ first (and only) game-winning goal with the Caps and his first game-winner since the 2015-2016 season with the Flyers, ending a streak of 270 games without one.

Game to Forget… March 4, 2020.  Players traded away always like to come back and make a point that they might have made a mistake in letting them go.  For Radko Gudas, though, facing his previous employer had not been anything to put in the scrapbook.  In three games against the Flyers he had yet to record a point, had an “even” rating, had (oddly enough) yet to record a penalty minute, and managed only two blocked shots in averaging about 18 minutes a game.  The fourth and final meeting of the regular season did not go any better.  After the Caps took a 1-0 lead to the first intermission on a goal by Lars Eller, the Flyers scored three goals in a span of ten minutes in the second period to take a 3-1 lead.  Gudas was on ice for each of the three goals in a span of four shifts that he skated.  He did not record a shot attempt and finished minus-2 in 12:24 of ice time (his third lowest of the season), leaving him 0-0-0, minus-2, averaging 16:27 a game against his former team.

Postseason…

Gudas’ participation in the postseason was sporadic.  He appeared in two of the three round robin games, posting an assist in each, losses to Tampa Bay and the Flyers.  He dressed for three of the five games in the opening round loss to the Islanders, going without a point and posting a minus-1 rating to go along with one shot on goal while averaging 15:39 in ice time.  It continued what has been a more or less disappointing experience in the postseason for Gudas, who wrapped up his season having yet to score a goal and posting three assists with a minus-5 rating in 20 playoff games in his career.

Looking Ahead…

Radko Gudas now heads into unrestricted free agency, his first opportunity to do so.  He finds himself in a potentially difficult situation of a season in which his numbers deteriorated over time to such an extent he was a scratch almost as often as he received a sweater, and teams will be trying to manage under a flat cap for the 2020-2021 season, if and when it starts.  He is in a position similar to teammate Brenden Dillon – unrestricted free agents of roughly the same age (Gudas is 30, Dillon 29), similar cap hits in their final contract year (Gudas: $3.35 million; Dillon: $3.27 million), and with similar reputations as defensive/physical defensemen with limited offensive upside.  The Caps almost certainly will not keep both, and they might not keep either, but if a choice is to be made, it would not be surprising to see the Caps re-sign Dillon before re-signing Gudas.

In the end…

In some respects, Gudas was the player one might have expected, and in others he was not.  His goals/assists/points per game with the Caps (0.03/0.21/0.24) closely resembled what he posted for the Flyers last season 90.05/0.21/0.26) and with Philadelphia the previous season (0.03/0.20/0.23).  In fact, his season with the Caps looked a lot like his three years with Tampa Bay to open his career (0.06/0.20/0.25; amounts do not sum due to rounding) and his four years overall with the Flyers (0.06/0.19/0.25).  But this season was the fourth consecutive season he experienced a drop in penalty minute per game.  From 1.53 with the Flyers in 2015-2016, he dropped to 1.39, 1.19, and 0.82 last season before posting 0.63 penalty minutes per game with the Caps this season.  His game appears to have mellowed over the years, and his season with the Caps faltered considerably after a promising start.  It might not be the best of profiles to carry into unrestricted free agency after what seems destined to be his only season with the Capitals.

Grade: C+

Photo: Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images

 

 

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

“Don't worry when you are not recognized, but strive to be worthy of recognition.”
-- Abraham Lincoln

 

Washington Capitals fans of this era have seen John Carlson grow up as a hockey player.  It started in 2008, when the Capitals used a first round draft pick obtained from the Philadelphia Flyers on draft day (for defenseman Steve Eminger and a third round draft pick) for the purpose of selecting Carlson from the Indiana Ice of the USHL.  That was a draft day trade that went a whole lot better than the other one they made and the player they targeted.  Carlson played for one season with the London Knights, posting an impressive 16-60-76, plus-23 scoring line, hinting at what was to come.  He moved up to the Hershey Bears, first in the Calder Cup playoffs in 2009, and then in the 2009-2010 season in which he was 4-35-39 in 48 games.  He also got his first taste of NHL action, going 1-5-6 in 22 games.  But in the midst of that season, there was this international moment:

 

The following season, 2010-2011, Carlson took his place as a regular in the Caps lineup. Since then, he has established himself among the elite offensive defensemen in the NHL.  Over his ten full seasons, he is one of three defensemen to have posted at least 100 goals (104), 450 points (472), and posted a plus-minus rating of at least plus-50 (plus-81).  The others are Kris Letang (106/352/plus-71) and Victor Hedman (101/453/plus-119).  Carlson is the only defenseman to have posted more than 200 points over the last two seasons (213), has more even strength points (122), has more power play points (91), and has more game-winning goals than any other defenseman (11).

Carlson finished the 2019-2020 season as the all-time leader in career points by a Capitals defensemen (478) and assists (373); he finished tied with Keven Hatcher for most game-winning goals by a defenseman in Caps history (24).  He also commands a high rank in games played (757/2^nd), plus-minus (plus-92/2^nd), even strength goals (77/3^rd), power play goals (27/7^th), and power play points (177/4^th).

Fearless’ Take…

Mike Green set the standard of production for defensemen in the post-2004-2005 lockout period, averaging 1.07 points per game in 68 games for the Caps in 2008-2009.  That is, until this season.  John Carlson averaged 1.09 points per game, most among defensemen appearing in at least 50 games in a season since Ray Bourque averaged 1.26 points per game in 1993-1994.  Carlson was on a pace to finish the season with a scoring line of 18-71-89 when the season was ended early, a whisker shy of being the first defenseman to post 90 or more points in a season since Bourque’s 1993-1994 season (91).  He was not only the only defenseman in the league to post 60 assists, he was the only one to post more than 50 (Roman Josi had 49 for Nashville).  His six game-winning goals led the league, and no defenseman has had more in a single season since Ray Bourque in 1992-1993 (seven).

Cheerless’ Take…

No defenseman in the league was on ice for more even strength goals scored for than John Carlson (89).  On the other hand, only six defensemen were on the ice for more even strength goals scored against than Carlson (72).  His even-strength goal differential of plus-17 was tied with the likes of Vince Dunn, Brandon Carlo, and Philippe Myers, none of whom have been mentioned as Norris Trophy finalists.  Even with respect to the offense, while it was impressive overall, it was a front-loaded affair.  Carlson had 36 points in his first 24 games of the season, 39 points in his last 45 games of the season.

Odd Carlson Fact… When John Carlson finished the 2019-2020 season with 75 points, he became the sixth American defenseman in NHL history to post 75 or more points at least once and the second Capital defenseman on that list (Kevin Hatcher). 

Odd Carlson Fact II… John Carlson is the all-time goal scoring leader among defensemen with Massachusetts being their point of origin (105).  He is second in that group in career plus-minus (plus-92), trailing only Mike Milbury (plus-175).

Odd Carlson Fact III… John Carlson skated in all 69 games for the Caps this season, and in all 69 games he logged at least 20 minutes of ice time.  The last time Carlson skated less than 20 minutes was January 15, 2019, when he skated 18:35 in a 7-2 loss to the Nashville Predators.  He has a streak of 104 consecutive games skating 20 or more minutes.

Game to Remember… February 23, 2020.  When the Pittsburgh Penguins visited the Caps at Capital One Arena for a Sunday matinee, one defenseman was assured of reaching a milestone.  Penguin defenseman Kris Letang was appearing in his 800^th career NHL game.  Another defenseman was on the brink of a milestone.  John Carlson entered the game tied with Calle Johansson for most career points by a Capitals defenseman (474).  He seemed a good bet to do it, if not in this game then soon, having posted 11 points in his previous ten games after going consecutive games without a point for the first time in the 2020 portion of the season.

The Caps scored early, getting an unassisted goal from Jakub Vrana in the seventh minute.  The Pens took the lead in the second period with a pair of goals.  Tom Wilson tied the game in the second minute of the third period.  It set the stage for the milestone point by Carlson three minutes later.  Richard Panik collected a loose puck in the right wing corner and fed it to Carlson at the right point.  Carlson got off a shot that goalie Matt Murray gloved down, but did not control.  Lars Eller did and got a chance, but it was stopped by Murray.  Carl Hagelin found the loose puck at the top of the crease and finished the play to give the Caps a lead once more.  Carlson earned the secondary assist on the play to break his tie with Calle Johansson for most points by a defenseman in Capitals history. 

Game to Forget… December 31, 2019.  Sometimes, hockey can be equal parts cruel and frustrating.  It was both for John Carlson on New Year’s Eve, when the Caps hosted the New York Islanders.  The Isles started the scoring in the eighth minute on a Casey Cizikas goal.  Carlson was on the ice for that one…and the next one three minutes later by Brock Nelson… and the second Cizikas goal less than five minutes into the second period… and the Tom Kuhnhackl goal eight minutes later that would prove to be the game-winner.  Carlson was on ice for each of the Islanders’ four goals, which he experienced over a span of only 14 shifts, while at the other end of the ice he led the team with six shots on goal (all unsuccessful) and 14 shot attempts, failing to record a point in the 4-3 loss.

Postseason…

Hockey teams are notoriously reticent about revealing the nature and severity of injuries, but one has to think that John Carlson, who suffered an injury when he got tangled up with Nino Niederreiter of the Carolina Hurricanes in an exhibition game, was less than 100 percent for the games in which he participated.  He was held out of the entire round-robin phase to determine seeding, and while he did skate in all five games of the Caps’ opening round loss to the Islanders and posted six assists in the effort, he still finished a minus-11 in the five games.  As of Saturday, Carlson remains the only skater in the postseason to be on ice for 10 or more even strength goals against (10) and no even strength goals for, and his minus-10 even strength goal differential is worst in the league among all skaters.

Looking Ahead…

John Carlson has six more seasons under his current eight-year/$64 million contract that has no trade clauses attached to it (capfriendly).  That contract takes Carlson to age 36.  He is the top defenseman in the Capitals’ system, and there is little reason to think that he will be anything but the top defenseman over the remainder of his contract with the club.  That is, in part, a reflection of his talent and standing among the league’s defensemen, but it is also a reflection of the lack of depth at the position in the developmental areas of the organization. 

In the end…

John Carlson is a core player, one who might be as irreplaceable, at least in the near term, as any other player on the Capitals roster.  Top pair defensemen are gold in the NHL, and for the faults he has in the defensive end from time, he has been an elite level defenseman for a while now (fifth in Norris Trophy voting two seasons ago, fourth last year as well as a second team all-star, and a Norris finalist this season).  His continuing to perform as an elite defenseman is a non-negotiable element in the formula for Caps success.

Grade: B+

Photo: Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“Maturity is often more absurd than youth and very frequently is most unjust to youth.”

-- Thomas A. Edison

 

Over an eight year period, from Canadian juniors to the AHL to the National Hockey League, Tom Wilson played in 490 regular season games and compiled 1,051 penalty minutes.  Seeing as how he recorded 67 goals and 189 points in the same span across the same leagues, and it would be easy – convenient, in fact – to regard Wilson as a “goon” at worst, an “enforcer (in the hockey tradtion)” at best.  We will leave it to you, dear reader, to find all of the Web sites devoted to these adjectives.  A piece of advice – pack a lunch, you will be a while.

But in the midst of the unflattering descriptions that dogged Wilson over the course of his development, a strange thing happened.  Folks discovered there was a real live, honest to goodness productive hockey player under the reputation for orneriness.  It took a little while to present itself with the Caps, what with Wilson posting only 14 goals and 42 points in 164 games over his first two NHL seasons.  But in 2017-2018, his hockey skills blossomed – 14-21-35, plus-10, in 78 games, plus another five goals and 15 points in 21 postseason games on his way with the Caps to a Stanley Cup.  He had his breakout season in 2018-2019, posting his first 20-goal (22)/40-point (40) season, skating a career high 18 minutes per game, and assuming a heavier load on offense on the top line and on defense with a career high in penalty killing minutes per game (2:14).

The 2019-2020 was an opportunity to reinforce and solidify Wilson’s profile as a true “power forward” that combines a physical edge with significant contributions on offense and defense.  Even though the season was cut short by 13 regular season games, that mission was largely fulfilled.  He finished with 21 goals in 68 games (a 25-goal pace), he already posted a career high in points with 44 (1 53-point pace), he recorded a personal high of 154 shots on goal, and for the third consecutive season he finished with a shooting percentage over ten percent (13.6).  And, he did it while shaving his penalty minutes by about a third on a per game basis from last year, from 2.03 minutes per game to 1.37, and by almost half from two years ago, from 2.40 minutes per game.

 Fearless’ Take…

Let us for a moment think of secondary scoring.  Not the usual consideration of whether bottom-six forwards are chipping in offense from time to time, but secondary scoring within a primary role.  Tom Wilson’s role on the Caps for the most part is as the top-line right wing at even strength.  He is not the star on that line, that being reserved for Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov, whichever happens to be centering that line at the time.  But what this means are that Wilson’s contributions on offense take on a uniquely important role of their own.  And, as his offensive game has emerged, so too have the impacts of those contributions.  In 2019-2020, he recorded goals in 20 games, and in those games the Caps posted a record of 15-4-1.  They were 23-8-5 in the 36 games in which he recorded a point.  And it is the producing that is important, not the effort.  The Caps were just 14-9-5 in the 28 games in which Wilson recorded at least three shots on goal.

Cheerless’ Take…

OK, we established Tom Wilson is a physical player, but the numbers reflected in that type of player are not always flattering.  In the 13 games this season in which Wilson was credited with more than five hits, the Caps were 4-7-2.  In seven games in which he had more than two penalty minutes, they were 3-4-0.  It is worth noting that the Caps did not lose a game in which he was not credited with a hit.  There were not many such games, mind you, but 5-0-0 is still 5-0-0.  And, he had points in all of them.  And while he plays important roles on both sides of the puck, there are limits.  The Caps were just 5-4-5 in the 14 games in which he skated at least 20 minutes.

Odd Wilson Fact… Tom Wilson is the only player in the league who, over the last two seasons, posted 40 or more goals (41), 80 or more points (84), 200 or more penalty minutes (221), a positive plus-minus rating (plus-8), and an aggregate shooting percentage over 15 percent (15.1).

Odd Wilson Fact II… Tom Wilson and Scott Steven are the only players in Capitals history to post at least 75 goals and at least 1,000 penalty minutes with the team by age 26.

Game to Remember… November 7, 2019.  When the Capitals visited the Florida Panthers in early November, Tom Wilson was looking to break an unpleasant personal streak against that opponent.  In 13 career games to that point, Wilson had yet to record a goal against the Panthers.  In fact, he managed just a single point – an assist – in those 13 games and had a minus-3 rating.  Game 14 was different.

The Caps scored first, just 25 seconds into the game, on a John Carlson goal.  But the Panthers tied the contest less than two minutes later, then scored again, and then scored again just 27 seconds into the second period to take a 3-1 lead.  Alex Ovechkin scored a pair of goals later in the second period to tie the game, but the Panthers answered with a power play goal with just over a minute left in the period to take a 4-3 lead to the second intermission.  The rest of the game belonged to Tom Wilson.  He tied the game just 44 seconds into the third period when, off a faceoff, he circled off the left wing boards toward the net.  As he did so, Evgeny Kuznetsov dug out a loose puck in the corner and fed it out to where Wilson was cruising.  Wilson redirected the puck up and over the shoulder of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, and it was a 4-4 game. 

The teams took the tie to the five-minute overtime period, but the Caps needed less than half a minute to settle matters.  Braden Holtby made a game-saving save on Aaron Ekblad at the doorstep just ten seconds into the overtime.  The Caps quickly transitioned, and John Carlson led a 2-on-1 rush with Wilson.  Jonathan Huberdaue was back for the Panthers, and when he stepped up on Carlson, the Caps defenseman fed the puck across to Wilson, who snapped a shot into the back of the net before Bobrovsky could scramble across the crease.  Just 17 seconds into the overtime, the Caps had a 5-4 win, and Wilson had both the game-winning goal and his only two-goal game of the season (on only two shots), in addition to breaking his long drought against the Panthers.

Game to Forget… March 4, 2020.  Games between the Caps and the Philadelphia Flyers have been rough affairs going back decades.  Tom Wilson added his measure to that tradition in an early March game in Washington, albeit not with the hoped-for effect.  The Caps scored first, on a Lars Eller goal, to take a 1-0 lead.  With the teams about to head into the first intermission with that score, Wilson locked horns with Nate Thompson, earning a fighting major and an additional minor for roughing.  The Flyers could not convert the advantage they were presented, but the second period belonged to the visitors.  They scored three goals ten minutes apart to take a 3-1 lead.  The Flyers pulled away with two third period goals, and Wilson took his second fighting major of the game in the last half minute of a 5-2 Caps loss.  Wilson finished the game without a shot on goal (although he did have an assist), and his 12 minutes in penalties were almost as much time as he spent on ice in what was his lowest ice time of the season (12:19).

Postseason…

For Wilson, the postseason was bad, then good, then bad.  He failed to register a point in the first two round robin games, against Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, recording only one shot on goal.  He did record points in each of his next three games, a goal against the Boston Bruins and assists in Games 1 and 2 against the Islanders.  But he was blanked on the score sheet in his last three games, going minus-4 in the process.  The penalties crept back as well.  He took at least one penalty in six of the eight games he played, 23 minutes in total.

Looking Ahead…

Tom Wilson has now satisfied two years of his six-year/$31.0 million contract signed in July 2018.  That $5.167 million cap hit is considerable, and it resides in a competitive cohort.  The 17 forwards age 24-29 with cap hits from $4.5-5.5 million include such names as Mika Zibanejad, Alex Tuch, and Yanni Gourde.  Wilson’s ability to sustain the progress he has made in the last two seasons, and his ability to build on it, will be something to watch to see if that is a “value” contract or not.

In the end…

Tom Wilson is an important element of the next wave of talent that the Caps need to perform at a high level to ensure that these next few years – perhaps the last of the Ovechkin/Backstrom era – are competitive.  One season scoring 20 goals and topping 40 points might be written off as a fluke, but Wilson has done it two years in a row and improved on his numbers in 2019-2020. Now, it is a matter of sustaining that level of performance and, if possible, enhancing it.  It is the sign of the mature player Wilson appears to have become.

Grade: B

Photo: Claus Andersen/Getty Images North America

 

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Forwards: Jakub Vrana

Jakub Vrana

 
"Child prodigy is a curse because you've got all those terrible possibilities.”
-- Itzhak Perlman

 

When Jakub Vrana took to the ice for the 2019-2020 season, things were looking up.  In three short seasons since he was taken with the 13^th overall pick of the 2014 Entry Draft, Vrana saw his participation increase from 21 games in 2016-2017 to 73 games in 2017-2018 to 82 games last season.  His production picked up, from three goals and six points in 2016-2017 to 13 goals and 27 points in 2017-2018 to 24 goals and 47 points last year.  His 14.9 percent shooting last season hinted as his talents as a sniper, and he had the speed that the Caps were lacking at other positions.  The 2019-2020 season had the look of what could be a breakout season for Vrana.

When Vrana scored goals in each of his first two games and nine in his first 16 contests, topping off that run with a hat trick against the Calgary Flames on November 3^rd, it looked as if it was possible he would blow right through the 30-goal mark and challenge the 40-goal total for the season.  Even through 31 games he had 15 goals, almost a half a goal per game pace.  But there was the start of some erosion in his goal scoring – six goals in 15 games after his nine in 16 games start.  When he suffered a ten-game goal drought from December 9^th through New Year’s Eve, it was a signal of things to come. 

Vrana rebounded to score eight goals in a nine-game stretch ending on January 27^th, but after that the bottom fell out of his goal scoring.  He finished the season with two goals in his last 19 games.  He finished the season with a career-high 25 goals, but after his torrid start that total seemed a bit disappointing, even in an abbreviated season.

Fearless’ Take…

When secondary scorers score – bottom six forwards or third pair defensemen – it is often an indicator of team success.  Jakub Vrana is that goal scorer in a top-six role whose goal scoring is itself an indicator of Caps success; at least it was in 2019-2020.  In the 20 games win which he recorded a goal, the Caps were 16-2-2.  The odd part was that assists mattered almost as much.  Washington was 17-4-3 in games in which Vrana recorded at least one helper.  If he was scoring, the Caps were winning.

Cheerless’ Take…

This is the second straight season that Vrana has faded down the stretch.  In 2018-2019, he had 15 goals in his first 43 games (0.35 goals per game), but he finished the season with nine goals in his last 39 games (0.23).  He went on to score no goals in the first round series against Carolina in which the Caps were eliminated in seven games.  This season, he had 23 goals in his first 50 games (0.46 goals per game) and finished with two in his last 19 games (0.11).  He had no goals in eight postseason games.

Odd Vrana Fact… Jakub Vrana is the 12^th player in Capitals history to record 60 or more career goals by age 23.  The shortened season almost certainly kept him from becoming only the sixth player in team history to post 60 or more even strength goals by age 23.  He has 59.

Game to Remember… November 3, 2019.  When the Calgary Flames came to town on November 3^rd, the Caps were in the midst of a nice run – 7-0-1 in their previous eight games.  They did it with offensive firepower, averaging 4.63 goals per game over that span.  Jakub Vrana had a hand in seven of the 37 goals, four goals of his own and three assists.  It set the stage for a big night for the Vrana scrapbook.  After Andrew Mangiapane opened the scoring with a Calgary goal in the sixth minute of the game, Vrana got the Caps even 11 minutes in.  It was a matter of quick defense-to-offense transition.  Tom Wilson fended off a defender to slide the puck out of the Caps’ end into the neutral zone where Evgeny Kuznetsov ran it down as it was crossing the Flames’ blue line.  As he collected the puck, he found Vrana breaking down the middle to the net all alone.  Vrana redirected the Kuznetsov pass over the right pad of goalie Cam Talbot to tie the game at the 11:01 mark.  

Four minutes later, Vrana gave the Caps the lead.  Calgary paid for not being able to clear the puck out of their own, a clearing attempt intercepted by Dmitry Orlov at the blue line.  Orlov skated to the middle and left the puck for Kuznetsov cutting into the left wing circle.  Kuznetsov dropped the puck for Vrana, who snapped it short side past Talbot to make it 2-1, Caps, 15:08 into the period.

After Elias Lindholm tied the game for Calgary with two seconds left in the first period, the teams went almost the entire second period with the score deadlocked.  Vrana broke the tie in the 16^th minute.  The Flames were putting pressure on the Caps until a loose puck lay between the hashmarks in the defensive end.  Kuznetsov chipped the puck up the middle where it found Vrana breaking behind the Flames’ defense.  Taking control of the puck just inside the Calgary blue line, Vrana broke in alone on Talbot a snapped a shot that Talbot stopped, but did not control.  Vrana got another poke at the puck and pushed it under Talbot to make it 3-2 and complete his first career hat trick.  It was also the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 4-2 win. 

Game to Forget… October 8, 2019.  Jakub Vrana opened the 2019-2020 season with points in each of his first three games, two goals and an assist.  That modest streak came to a screeching halt when the Dallas Stars came to town.  It was a generally quiet night for Vrana on a night when the Caps could have used some timely scoring.  The teams exchanged goals over the first 48 minutes before the Stars took their first lead of the game 12 minutes into the third period.  The Caps tied the game with less than 30 seconds left on a Nicklas Backstrom goal to salvage a point in what would be a 4-3 overtime loss on a Tyler Seguin goal 43 seconds into the extra frame.  Vrana’s score sheet line was largely blank.  No points, no shots on goal (one of four games without a shot for his season), minus-1, and less than 14 minutes in ice time.

Postseason…

Jakub Vrana opened the scoring for the Caps in their 4-3 Stanley Cup clinching effort in Game 5 of the final in 2018.  In 15 postseason games since, Vrana does not have a point.  He is 0-for-25 shooting in that span and carries a minus-8 rating.  That streak includes a 2020 postseason scoring line of 0-0-0, minus-7, and 17 shots on goal in eight games while averaging 14:20 in ice time per game.  He had 11 shots on goal in the last four games of the opening round loss to the New York Islanders, but to no avail. That run of bad luck included a golden chance to get the Caps back into the series against the Islanders in overtime in Game 3.  He was foiled on two shots on the same breakaway by goalie Semyon Varlamov, and less than 30 seconds later, the islanders won the game and took a strangle hold in the series. 

Looking Ahead…

Next season, Jakub Vrana will be skating under the final year of his current two-year/$6.7 million contract, after which he will be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent.  One has to imagine re-signing him will be a priority, given that there is no player with his mix of skills in the developmental pipeline.  He represents one of that “next wave” of players (which might also include Tom Wilson) that will have to produce to extend the Caps’ competitive window.

In the end…

Jakub Vrana might have the most effective combination of speed, shooting, and finishing skills since Alexander Semin played for the Caps in his prime a decade ago.  But like Semin, there is an enigmatic quality to his game.  What accounts for the drop off in production late in the last two seasons?  How that question gets answered and addressed will mean a lot to Vrana’s pocketbook and to the Caps postseason fortunes over the next year.

Grade: B-

Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports