Washington Capitals: 2021--2022 By the Tens -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“Blessed is he that expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.”
-- Benjamin Franklin 

It would be fair to say that Lars Eller had a season that did not meet expectations.  You might call it, to an extent, a bad luck year.  He was sidelined not once, but twice for COVID issues, once in November for six games and again in March for another three games.  And yet, Eller’s year was not all disappointment.  It was certainly a mixed bag of production and problems.

Fearless’ Take… Eller finished the season with 31 points, the fourth season in the last five in which he finished north of 30 points (he might have been 5-for-5 if he was not limited to 44 games and 23 points last season).  He finished with the second-best shooting percentage of his six seasons with the Caps (11.2, trailing only the 11.6 percent he posted last season).  He displayed a physical edge that was largely absent in his first five years with the Caps, averaging 4.91 credited hits per 60 minutes, most of his career in DC.  He was on ice for 47 goals at even strength, second most as a Capital. 

Cheerless’ Take… Wanna talk numbers, cuz?  I got numbers.  About those hits.  The Caps were 11-10-4 in the 25 games in which he had two or more hits.  They were 1-2-3 in the six games in which he skated at least 20 minutes.  While he had 31 points, his 0.43 points per game were his second-worst as a Capital.  His 40 penalty minutes were second-most with the Caps.  He had his penalty killing ice time pared back – 1:39 per game, lowest of his six years in Washington, but the 18 power play goals for which he was on ice were the most of his career with the Caps.  He was minus-3 in goal differential on-ice at even strength.  He was minus-7 in takeaways to giveaways, second-worst of his tenure with the Capitals.  He has eight even strength goals, fewest in his six years with the Caps.

Odd Eller Fact… 2021-2022 was the first season of the six Eller has been in Washington that he did not record an empty-net goal. Or an empty net point, for that matter.

Odd Eller Fact II… Eller has been to the postseason six times with the Caps.  Only once in those six playoff appearances did he finish with a plus rating.  He was plus-6 in 2018, the year the Caps won the Cup and in which he scored the Cup-clinching goal.  In his other 35 playoff games over five seasons he is a combined minus-12.

Odd Eller Fact III… Eller is the only active Capital to average at least one minute per game on power plays (1:04) and at least two minutes per game on penalty kills (2:04).

Game to Remember… March 11^th at Vancouver.  When the Caps visited the Canucks on March 11^th, Eller was in a slump.  No points and a minus-8 rating over a ten-game stretch.  And he was averaging only 13:42 in ice time, which just seemed to concentrate his dry spell.  The Caps took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission against the home team, but they gave it all back, plus a goal for good measure when the Canucks potted three goals in just over four minutes early in the third period.  Evgeny Kuznoetsov brought the Caps back to even at 3-3 with a power play goal in the 16^th minute of the period to force overtime.  Eller skated one shift in the extra frame, but that would be all the Caps needed.  Eller helped strip J.T. Miller of the puck in the offensive zone, freeing it up for John Carlson to lead a two-on-one rush the other way, Eller to his left.  After gaining the offensive zone, Carlson fed Eller, who slipped a shot though the pads of goalie Thatcher Demko 42 second into overtime to give the Caps a 4-3 win.  It was Eller’s only shot on goal of the game.

 

Game to Forget… March 9^th at Edmonton.  Two days before he broke out of that ten-game slump in Vancouver, Eller had a thoroughly forgettable game against the Oilers in Edmonton.  The Caps scored first, but Edmonton came back to take a 2-1 lead.  The Caps tied it, but the Oilers regained the lead mid-way through the third period.  Washington tied the game on a goal by T.J.Oshie with two seconds left in regulation.  The Caps could not secure the second standings point in overtime, though.  In the fourth minute, the Caps got caught having to defend a 2-on-1 break with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl breaking free.  Eller was the only Capital back, a forward having to defend against two of the top offensive players in the league.  Eller could do little but serve as a witness as McDavid snapped a shot past his stick and past goalie Ilya Samsonov on the long side to give the Oilers a 4-3 win.  Eller was on ice for all four Oiler goals and finished a minus-3 (worst on the club for the night), tying his worst rating of the season.  At the offensive end, he had no points and only one shot attempt (a miss) in less than 14 minutes of work.

Postseason… Eller’s postseason tracked with his regular season.  He did record a goal and a pair of assists in the six-game loss to Florida in the opening round, but he was also a minus-4 (second-worst among forwards), and he was on ice for seven even strength goals against, second-most among Caps forwards. 

Looking Ahead… This off-season could be consequential for Eller.  He had what was, on balance, a disappointing season, even with the absences due to COVID.  And, he turned 33 years old on May 8^th.  With Connor McMichael waiting in the wings as perhaps the next third line center for the Caps on a team looking to get younger, there is a bulls-eye on Eller’s back as a potential departure.  He has one more season with a $3.5 million cap hit, and with McMichael having two more seasons at $863,000 on his entry-level contract before he becomes a restricted free agent, there could be additional incentive for the Caps to field offers for Eller.

In the End

Whatever fate awaits Lars Eller, it seems unlikely he would ever have to buy a drink in Washington in the future for his 2018 postseason.  But that said, hockey is a cold business, and a player who combines a disappointing season while approaching his mid-30’s, not to mention a potential replacement waiting on-deck, is a strong candidate to be playing in another city in 2022-2023.  This does not diminish the respect due Eller for being the answer for most of his career in Washington to a problem that plagued the Caps for years – getting a productive player to center the third line.  He added the bonus of being the sort of player who could center any of the lines in a pinch.  He has been a valuable commodity, and if he does move in this off-season, his body of work in that role deserves fans’ respect.

Grade: B-

Washington Capitals: 2021--2022 By the Tens -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“By appreciation, we make excellence in others our own property.”
-- Voltaire

Once upon a time, when statistics were kept on stone tablets, fourth line players were lumbering, skill-challenged, edgy players whose principal purposes were to give their more skilled teammates a breather and to wreak havoc on the ice, either by righting wrongs or by trying to inspire their teammates with crunching hits and fisticuffs.

Those days are gone.  Fourth line players, while not possessing the skills one typically associates with first or second line forwards, are a multi-dimensional sort of player in the contemporary NHL.  One could argue that even with their modest ice time, their contributions as depth players and their abilities to play a two-way game are essential to a team’s success.  For the Washington Capitals, the fourth line was one of the season’s bright spots, and center Nic Dowd might have been the gem in that fourth line for the Caps this season.

Fearless’ Take

Last season, Dowd set a career high in goals with 11 in just 56 games, a respectable 16-goal pace over 82 games.  This year, it was points, with 24 in 64 games, a 31-point pace over 82 games.  Those numbers might be more impressive given that he averaged barely 14 minutes per game over the two seasons.  He was fourth among Caps forwards this season in credited hits (139) and hits per 60 minutes (9.13).  Among Caps forwards appearing in more than 15 games, he was fourth in takeaways per 60 minutes (1.84) and was second in that group in blocked shots per 60 minutes (3.48).  His plus-9 goal differential at even strength ranked fourth among all Caps forwards.  His 53.7 faceofff winning percentage led all Caps forwards taking more than 75 draws and was the second-highest winning percentage of his career (56.3 percent last year with the Caps being his best).  If Dowd wasn’t the best fourth line center in the league, he could see that spot from where he stood.

Cheerless’ Take

Pump the brakes there, cuz.  He ain’t Gretzky.  He ain’t even Brent Gretzky.  OK, that’s unfair, he’s a lot better than Brent.  But what was up with the penalties?  He set a career high with 44 PIMs.  Not a lot, but still quite a jump from his previous high (31 minutes) that was set last season.  And in the 19 games in which he drew at least one penalty, the Caps were 8-5-6.  And getting physical did not work out so well.  The Caps were 10-8-7 in the 25 games in which he registered at least three hits, perhaps not surprising since hits are often an indicator of poor possession numbers.  Not that Dowd’s personal possession numbers were bad, but his 50.4 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 was not eye-popping.

Odd Dowd Fact… Nic Dowd was one of three skaters in 2021-2022 to post at least one power play point, at least one shorthanded point, record a rating of plus-10 or better, and score at least ten goals while averaging less than 15 minutes of ice time and appearing in at least 50 games (Jesper Fast and Pierre Engvall were the others).

Odd Dowd Fact II… Since Dowd came to Washington in 2018-2019, he is one of two players in the league over that span, from that season to this, to score at least 35 goals, post at least 75 points, record a rating of plus-35 or better, and do it while averaging less than 13 minutes per game.  The other player?  His linemate Garnet Hathaway.

Odd Dowd Fact III… Five times this season, Dowd recorded neither a hit nor a blocked shot.  The Caps went 4-1-0 in those games.

Game to Remember… April 16^th at Montreal.  Nic Dowd was closing in on a personal milestone when the Caps visited Bell Centre in Montreal in mid-April.  His career point total stood at 99 points.  Perhaps a modest milestone – 100 career points – he was chasing, but a for a fourth liner playing in his 364^th career game, reaching that career milestone would be a meaningful moment.  He hit the 100-point mark for his career in fine fashion, opening the scoring for the Caps on a goal that seemed typical for a fourth liner, setting up in front of the Canadiens’ net and redirecting a long-distance drive from Dmitry Orlov…

 

Dowd later added an assist on what would be the game-winning goal from Garnet Hathaway in a 8-4 win over the Canadiens.  It was the sixth multi-point game of Dowd’s career and, oddly enough, his second in the span of three games, his having gone 0-2-2 in a 9-2 pasting of the Philadelphia Flyers on April 12^th.

Game to Forget… November 8^th vs. Buffalo.  It is an unexpectedly difficult task to find a really unforgettable game from Dowd this season.  He did not finish worse than minus-1 in any game this season, and only twice was he on ice for more than one goal against at even strength, twice being on ice for two goals at evens.  But there was that one game against Buffalo in November.  He was already on the mend from a leg injury when he lasted just one shift into the second period before suffering another leg injury that ended his evening with just seven shifts in 4:37 of ice time.  He did record a pair of hits and split two faceoffs as the Caps went on to a 5-3 win over the Sabres, but he would miss five games with the injury.

Postseason… Dowd’s postseason was rather unremarkable.  He did post a goal and an assist in six games, but he was a minus-3, the third postseason in four trips (all with the Caps) that he finished on the minus side of the ledger.  His splits were noteworthy, though, in that he was 1-1-2, minus-1, with six shots on goal on home ice, while he went scoreless and a minus-2 with only two shots on goal in three games in Florida.  It was not unusual.  Dowd finished this postseason with a 3-1-4, minus-2, career playoff scoring line in 14 games on home ice but just 1-0-1, minus-5, in 12 playoff games on the road.

Looking Ahead… Dowd is not an elder stateman at this point in his career, but he will turn 32 years old on May 27^th.  He was one of 14 players to dress for the Caps this season having reached or passed their 30^th birthday.  He does have the benefit of having played in only seven seasons and 371 regular season games over his career to date.  There is no reason to believe, given the consistency of his performance with the Caps since his arrival and less mileage than most 32-year old players might have.  The Caps will have some serious roster issues to address in this off-season.  Dowd and his role with the club going forward should not be one of them.

In the End… You have to respect the consistency and the production of a player, even in a fourth-line role, that Nic Dowd brings night in and night out.  Accounting for context and what the expectations might be for a fourth line center, his season was among the best of any Capital this season.  Now, if only he could bring that level of consistency and performance to the offseason, the Caps might have the pleasure of deeper playoff runs than they have had recently.

Grade: A-

Washington Capitals: 2021--2022 By the Tens -- Forwards: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom

“Even if I don't finish, we need others to continue. It's got to keep going without me.”
-- Terry Fox

The 2021-2022 season for Nicklas Backstrom might have been the most difficult and, in the end, most heart-wrenching of his career.  In this, his 15^th season with the Washington Capitals, Backstrom missed the first 28 games of the season trying to come back from a hip injury, played intermittently over the next eight contests, and then gutted his way to playing in 44 of the last 46 games of the season.  But it was not pretty.  More times than any Backstrom fan would have liked, he looked like a player who, after a decent start upon his return,  just could not catch up from having to miss training camp and almost the entire first half of the season.  And at the end, Backstrom himself hinted at the difficult road ahead when he noted on breakdown day after the Caps were eliminate from the postseason, "obviously we'll see what's going to happen.  We have some decisions to make. Those decisions aren't finalized yet, so we'll take it day by day."

Fearless’ Take

Backstrom actually came out of his hiatus in pretty good shape, going 3-10-13, plus-3, in his first 14 games of the season.  He had points in ten of those games and was second, by one one-hundredth of a point, behind the team leader in points per game (Evgeny Kuznetsov).  He tied Kuznetsov for the team lead in assists over that span.  His personal shot attempts-on ice percentage at 5-on-5 (54.2 percent) led all skaters who played in at least ten games over that stretch.  He was on ice for 13 goals at even strength, second among forwards (Alex Ovechkin: 14), and he was a plaus-4 in goal differential at even strength, tied for second among forwards (Daniel Sprong: plus-5).

Cheerless’ Take

It didn’t last, cuz.  It almost didn’t start.  In putting together that 14-game start, Backstrom missed five games.  And it was not as if that pretty good start mattered all that much.  The Caps were 7-6-1 in those 14 games.  In his last 33 games, he was 3-15-18, minus-11, and those last four “tens” look like a fading player.  He did finish six among Caps skaters in that 33-game stretch from February 3^rd through the end of the season, but he also had only nine even strength points in that span (he also had nine points on power plays).  Of 20 skaters to play in tenor more games over that span, his 7.7 shooting percentage ranked 16^th, next to last among forwards (Johan Larsson was 7.1 percent in 14 games).  And Backstrom, being the sort of player who through the years has done the big and the little things well, struggled in the less visible parts of the game.  His 43.9 personal shot-attempts for percentage at 5-on-5 was worst on the team over those last 33 games among Caps appearing in at least ten games.  And of 181 players to take at least 100 faceoffs over that span, his 44.2 winning percentage ranked 149^th.  He had the look of a player who just wore down as the season went on.

Odd Backstrom Fact… Ice time was not kind to Backstrom in 2021-2022.  In eight games in which he recorded at least 20 minutes, the Caps were 2-5-1 and 0-4-0 at home.  At the other end, the Caps were perfect when Backstrom logged fewer than 16 minutes (9-0-0).

Odd Backstrom Fact II… Shooting wasn’t especially kind to Backstrom, either.  The Caps were 7-7-2 when he posted two or more shots in a game; they were 6-4-1 when he did not record a shot.

Odd Backstrom Fact III… In the “Faceoffs Don’t Matter in the Big Picture of Things,” the Caps were 9-8-1 when he won at least 50 percent of his draws, 6-3-1 when he won 30 percent or less.

Game to Remember… March 9^th at Edmonton.  When the Caps descended on Edmonton for a March 9^th matchup, they were arriving from Calgary, where they beat the Flames, 5-4, the previous evening to extend a winning streak to three games.  Nicklas Backstrom scored points in the latter two games, looking to extend his personal points streak to three games, which would tie his longest of the season, set in his first three games of the 2021-2022 campaign.  He also entered that game against the Oilers with 998 career points.  He notched his 999^th point when he opened the scoring with a goal less than three minutes into the second period.  Edmonton would rally to take a 2-1 lead into the second intermission, but in the seventh minute of the third period, Backstrom did what only one Capital and 92 players before him ever accomplished…

It was a typical Backstrom play – understated, subtle, and effective.  Taking a pass in stride at his own blue line, taking a few strides, and hitting T.j. Oshie on the rush with an Oiler defender seemingly in position to break up the play.  It allowed Oshie to break in alone down the right wing and snap a shot past goalie Mikko Koskinen to tie the game.  Unfortunately, however, the game ended in what would be almost a typical Caps fashion.  After Edmonton regained the lead, the Caps tied it in the dying seconds on Oshie’s second goal of the game, but they lost in overtime on a Connor McDavid goal.  For Backstrom, though, the game was historic.

Game to Forget… April 3^rd vs. Minnesota.  The Caps had six days to shake off the 6-1 loss that the Carolina Hurricanes pinned on them at Capital One Arena to close the March schedule before the Minnesota Wild came to town on April 3^rd.  The hiatus did neither the Caps nor Nicklas Backstrom much good.  Backstrom was ineffective against the ‘Canes – no points, minus-1, 2-for-12 on faceoffs in less than 17 minutes of work.  It would be worse against the Wild.  Minnesota opened the scoring just 36 seconds into the game, and a minute later, they doubled their lead when Tyson Jost took a feed from Jonas Brodin, walked around Backstrom (on his first shift of the game) in front of the Caps’ bench, skated in and scored to make it 2-0 just 97 seconds into the game.  It would be the start of a long day for Backstrom, who finished without a point, a minus-3 rating that matched his season worst (against Boston on January 10^th), and no shot attempts in 16:05 in ice time, the third lowest he logged on home ice for the season.  It would be his second straight game without a goal, a streak that would grow to 13 games to end the regular season.

Postseason… Nicklas Backstrom rose to the occasion in the postseason as much as any Capital did.  In the six-game series against Florida, he was 2-4-6, plus-1, posted at least one point in five of the six games, finished tied for second on the team in points, was one of only five Capitals with a plus rating.  It was a significant improvement over his last two trips to the playoffs over which he was just 0-2-2, minus-4, in ten games overall.  This is not to say there were no holes in his game, though.  His personal shat attempts-for at 5-on-5 of 38.8 percent was 17^th of 18 skaters dressing for more than one game.  And, of 91 players taking at least ten faceoffs through games of May 22^nd, he ranked 86^th in faceoff winning percentage (35.1).

Looking Ahead… There is considerable uncertainty with respect to Backstrom’s future with the team, and no one seems to realize this more than Backstrom himself.  His chronic hip condition is perhaps the worst lingering problem a hockey player can endure in terms of sapping his effectiveness, and the range of options available to him to remedy, or at least live with, the effects is wide, from therapy to surgery to, if it comes to that, retirement.  He will be 35 years old in November, and he carries a cap hit of $9.2 million for each of the next three years.  In this past season, 12 centers carried cap hits of at least $7.5 million.  Backstrom ranked last on that list in games played, goals, points, shooting percentage; he was tenth in points per game and 11^th in average ice time (source: capfriendly.com). 

In the End… Nicklas Backstrom is, for lack of a better term, the “silent warrior,” whose appearance as a low-key personality on the ice disguises a focused and determined player whose skill, attention to detail, and, until his hip problems, durability combined to make him one of the greatest players in team history and one of a small cadre of elite centers of his era in the NHL.  While he might never be the player, health-wise, he was before the hip problems occurred, Nicklas Backstrom has to at least improve on his 2021-2022 numbers to balance cost and value to the club.  If not, the Caps are going to be saddled with a liability that neither the team, nor the greatest center in Capitals history, either deserve or can afford.  What path Backstrom takes in terms of his rehabilitation might be the most important story to follow in the off-season and in the season to come.

Grade: B-