The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, March 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more,
Or close the wall up with our Capitals dead!
In peace there's nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility,
But when the blast of hockey blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger . . .

OK, enough of that Henry V crap. The Caps go a’traveling in the back half of their back-to-back games to Uniondale, NY, to take on the New York Islanders. Having just played the Islanders last Saturday, there really isn’t much to update in terms of the Islanders’ recent statistics (so we’ll refer you back to what we said last week), only to say that since that 6-2 thrashing of the Caps the Isles have lost both games they’ve played since – both being 2-1 results against the Rangers (one of which was a shootout loss).

Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favored rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect:
Let it pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o'erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a gallèd rock
O'erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swilled with the wild and wasteful ocean.

Oh, that reminds me . . . it’ll be another chance to renew acquaintances with the master of the menacing glare, Brendan Witt. The Islanders are a feisty bunch, as you can see from this exclusive video:

The Islanders are fifth in the NHL in total shorthanded situations and 22^nd in penalty killing. Guys…that’s a clue. Think maybe you can get your power play untracked?

Now set the teeth and stretch the nostril wide,
Hold hard the breath and bend up every spirit
To his full height! On, on, you noble Capitals,
Whose blood is fet from fathers of war-proof,
Fathers that like so many Alexanders
Have in these parts from morn till even fought
And sheathed their swords for lack of argument.

The Islanders will bring a 60-minute effort . . . if the Caps fail to match it, then is will be a long evening. Given the circumstances – the second of a back-to-back, on the road, that will be a test of character.

Dishonor not your mothers; now attest
That those whom you called fathers did beget you!
Be copy now to men of grosser blood
And teach them how to war! And you, good yeomen,
Whose limbs were made in Canada (and Russia and America
And Czech and Slovakia), show us here
The mettle of your pasture. Let us swear
That you are worth your breeding; which I doubt not,
For there is none of you so mean and base
That hath not noble lustre in your eyes.

Gotta suck it up, boys. That’s part of learning how to win in this league. The Islanders are fighting for a playoff spot (three points ahead of the ninth-place Rangers this morning), so they won’t go easily.

I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game's afoot!
Follow your spirit; and upon this charge
Cry 'God for Teddy! The Capitals and Saint George!'

Caps 4 – Islanders 3.

And Now . . . Your Science Meets Hockey Moment

The Peerless appreciates the elegance of a simple scientific experiment, so we bring you this laboratory moment . . .



Kinda looks like the Caps forwards (pick any line you want) running around the offensive zone these days.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Hurricanes

No points, Caps fans…

“Hard Knocks, School of”

That’s where the Caps are enrolled now as they get some very hands-on lessons in what it takes to win in the National Hockey League. Last night the boys extended their exercise in offensive futility to 131:47 in a 3-0 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, sinking to 0-4-2 in their last six games overall and 0-4-3 in their last seven home games.

Again, it wasn’t for a lack of effort. The Caps had some difficulty on defense (more than the score might indicate), Carolina failing to find the back of several open nets over the course of the evening as they successfully broke the Caps down in deep on occasion. But the Caps competed for just about all of the 60 minutes.

The difference, as one might expect between a Stanley Cup champion and a team merely aspiring to playing in a playoff round, is skill. But more than that, it is experience. The top line for the Hurricanes – Rod Brind’Amour, Ray Whitney, and Justin Williams – has 2,492 regular season games worth of experience among them. The 18 skaters the Caps iced last night have 3,840 (and Donald Brashear has 832 of that). Ten Caps have fewer than two full seasons worth of experience, four of them less than one full year. A kid who is still learning where to place his fingers to play chords on a guitar isn’t going to play like Jimi Hendrix . . . not for a while at least.

Hidden in the rubble of this game are a few nuggets of good play:

- This was the fourth time in five games that the Caps have held the opposition without a power play goal. They’ve killed the last 14 shorthanded situations in which they’ve found themselves, and 30 of the last 34 (88.2 percent).

- Alexander Semin is trying to find a balance between keeping the puck all to himself and looking for the open player. Offensively, he was the best of the Caps last night (although when you don’t score any goals, that qualifies as faint praise).

- Jeff Schultz accomplished what is one of the most difficult things to do in the NHL – knock Rod Brind’Amour off his feet. Mike Green made Eric Staal pay for a trip to the crease by planting the forward flat on his back.

- Brent Johnson displayed the same acrobatic success he showed in the closing weeks of last season. 42 saves on 44 shots (.955 save percentage). It goes without saying, he deserved better.

But for the time being, look at that image above. That’s the Caps – the donut offense. Nothing in the middle. Last night was primarily “Jiri Novotny Night” as far as auditions go for centering the Alexes (Kris Beech and Brian Sutherby also got a shift or two). Novotny played earnestly, if not effectively. He’s still feeling his way, both in his new surroundings as a Cap and just in terms of ice time (68 total games of experience). Here’s another way to look at the center situation for the Caps. Seven players who are natural centers still in the Caps’ organization (i.e., discounting the contributions of Dainius Zubrus) have taken the ice for the Caps this year: Kris Beech, Brian Sutherby, Jiri Novotny, Brooks Laich, Jakub Klepis, Alexandre Giroux, and Boyd Gordon. Combined, they have 275 games played and are 27-56-83 . . .

27-56-83 . . . that’s Daniel Briere (27-52-79) in 66 games.

No amount of complaining about the Caps’ condition is going to bake this cake any faster. Guys like Novotny need to get games under their belts, and the product of that part of the lesson book is frustrating nights like these, when one bounce, one deflection, one seeing-eye puck could have been the difference between a win and a loss.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs

No points tonight, Caps fans . . . no points tonight.




Someday, it'll all be worth it. Every bad bounce, every miniscule mistake, every misplaced skate. Someday, it'll all be worth it.

But right now, it's hard to watch. It's hard to watch the Alexes account for 10 of 24 shots on goal and get little support, not from lack of effort, but just a lack of timing and experience. It's hard to watch John Erskine do the things he does well -- punish people (we loved that Darcy Tucker never even looked in his direction when he was planted in the ice by Erskine) -- then end up being on the ice for two of the three goals (including one by Tucker shortly after getting splattered by Erskine). It was hard to watch the Caps kill off a 5-on-3 power play and hold the Leafs off the scoreboard with a man advantage all night, then give up three even strength goals. It was hard to watch Frederic Cassivi's fine performance in the first period wasted when the Caps couldn't seem to find the Maple Leaf net.

It's hard to watch the Caps play as well as they did and never really be in the game.

And that's why The Peerless doesn't give much thought to the scoreboard at this point. We're looking to see if guys are putting forth an effort, that they're winning a shift or winning a battle for the puck, that they're creating opportunities. We're past caring much what the scoreboard says.

Keeping trying guys. Come one day, it will all be worth it.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs, March 6th

73 years.

That’a a lot of frustration to build up, but that’s how many combined years the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs will take to the ice tonight without having sipped from the Stanley Cup.

And you thought you had a bad day?

It’s one thing for the Caps to have realized 33 consecutive years of failure, but the Leafs? For whose fans winning the Cup is a birthright? In their 40^th season of futility? It makes one almost weep blue and white tears. Almost.

The Caps’ playoff hopes evaporated with the last of the egg nog long about the end of December. But the Leafs are seeing their chances peeling away like a fresh scab off of an old wound. Toronto is sitting at 71 points – only two behind eight-place Carolina – but they are sinking slowly into the second division of the East off their 4-5-3 record in their last dozen games (two of those wins came against lowly Philadelphia).

Toronto has been outscored 41-33 in the past dozen games, suggesting some significant defensive breakdowns. Small wonder that Toronto finds itself 25^th in the league in goals-per-game allowed. They haven’t allowed fewer than two goals in any of the past dozen and have given up at least four goals four times. At least the Leafs can claim some balance on offense with 15 skaters sharing in the 33 goals they’ve scored.

Special teams have been brutal for the Leafs. In the past dozen they are 5-for-53 on the power play (9.4 percent) while killing off only 45 of 59 shorthanded situations (76.3 percent). They’ve given up a power play goal in nine of their last 12 games and two or more in four of those. It isn’t helping that they’ve been shorthanded at least five times in seven of the 12 games. Not even home cooking helps. They are 1-3-2 at Air Canada Centre in this stretch.

The Leafs have been led, if that is the right word, by Mats Sundin (5-7-12, +2) and Nik Antropov (4-3-7, -1) over the last 12. Compounding the problem for the Leafs is that they are suffering a bit of an injury bug, with Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle, Michael Peca, and Kyle Wellwood. The quartet has missed a combined 30 man-games of the 48 available to them over the last 12.

Andrew Raycroft has taken the bulk of the goaltending duty over the past 12, but it hasn’t been a joy ride for him, either . . . 4-4-3, 3.44, .867.

For the Leafs, things are not looking good.

For the Caps, the object is to get youngsters playing time and to evaluate their progress. This is the silver lining in the thunder clouds that have rained on the last half of the season. The club should be getting a clearer picture of just what they need in the coming off season. You have to look for such things when you are 1-5-4 in the last ten (all four extra time losses coming by shootout).

The Caps defense and goaltending has been lacking in this latest stretch of problems. Four times in ten games the Caps have given up at least five goals. Penalty killing has been a disaster – only 31 kills in 44 shorthanded situations (70.5 percent). Three times the Caps have yielded three power play goals in a game (they lost each one, to no surprise). Only twice have they held an opponent without a power play goal (both shootout losses).

This has the earmarks of a penalty-filled, special-teams goal-fest. The Caps have been struggled for going on three months, and the Leafs are finally settling into what for them has been familiar territory for four decades. It wont be pretty, but it might be entertaining.

Caps 5 - Leafs 4

Fiddling with numbers...

The Caps are on a pace to finish 30-37-15 this season . . . 75 points.

They also finished with 75 points in the 1996-97 season.

They went to the Stanley Cup final the next season.

Just thought you'd like to know.

You've GOT to be kidding me . . .

Selling a product is one thing, but taking me (or any other hockey fan) to be some rube from the sticks is another matter entirely.

The Blogger-in-Charge had this to say in his take Friday under the topic, "Good News for NHL Attendance:"

"Why is it that the good news that the NHL is experiencing isn't translating to more positive press and references in newspapers around the country? The NHL is recording record attendance. We have a great partnership with our players, revenues are up and I bet March will be even better as the playoff races are as tight as I have ever seen them."

Hey, The Peerless will take a shot at this one . . .

Because people have eyes, big guy. And they can recognize the difference between a flesh-and-blood person and an empty seat. If the NHL is going to count every ticket sold, "distributed," printed, or thought about as "attendance," then guffaws over pronouncements that there is "good news" about attendance will continue to be heard.

I wonder . . . do the Caps count this guy as part of the "paid attendance?" . . .

After-math -- Caps vs. Islanders

No points tonight, Caps fans.





George Armstrong Custer . . . Davy Crockett . . . Spartacus . . . Glen Hanlon.

Leaders of battles against overwhelming odds, doomed to fail because of opponents’ vast advantages in skill and numbers.

Last night, the Washington Capitals hit their low point of the season in a 6-2 pasting at the hands, sticks, and bodies of the New York Islanders, typified by having to play Tomas Fleischmann as a center for much of the last half of the contest. This club has nothing more to give than effort. They are running out of bodies. They dressed seven defensemen and 11 forwards for this one (losing one forward along the way). Couple that with nothing to play for in terms of standings, and it makes for a pretty grim way to be finishing up the season.

The game itself was a clear reflection of where these clubs are at the moment. One is fighting for a playoff spot; the other is fighting not to be embarrassed. The Peerless has no quarrel with the Caps effort last night. It might not have been quite to the level or with quite the focus of the game against Tampa Bay on Thursday, but effort wasn’t the reason the Caps lost.

The Caps lost because they got behind the eight ball early – part their own doing (a product of inexperience) and some a product of obstruction calls than might not have qualified as tackles in a touch football game. Let’s not go down that road, though. The Caps were brutal on the penalty kill. Jeff Schultz happened to be a particularly unfortunate soul, as he was on the ice for the first three Islander goals (all power play tallies). Brooks Laich and Jiri Novotny had a good view of the scoring, too – they were on for four of the six goals the Isles scored.

But as much as Washington’s defense – and especially the penalty killing – struggled, it was equally a case of the offense failing to convert any of the chances they had . . .

- Alexandre Giroux misfired on a semi-breakaway.
- Alexander Semin had Islander goalie Rick DiPietro at his mercy and decided to pass the puck to a covered Alexander Ovechkin (now he decides to pass…)
- Brooks Laich had a great tip-in opportunity that he tipped into Rick DiPietro’s logo.
- The Caps wasted four power play opportunities (while giving up three power play goals) before scoring a man-up goal when the game had been decided.
- Alex Ovechkin was held to one shot over the first 58:45 of the game; Alexander Semin had one shot for the game. Those two players had 57 percent of the Caps goals among players who took the ice last night.

If there is one thing obvious at the moment, this team can’t pass very well, and it shows up in an inability to enter the offensive zone under control. Whereas the Islanders were entering the Caps’ zone in control of the puck for most of the night, the Caps were left to dump and chase, and this club is not really engineered at the moment for fierce forechecking. That stands in stark contrast to the Islanders, who perform that task rather effectively.

The Caps also couldn’t escape the contest without two things happening. John Erskine got another delay-of-game penalty, and the Caps sustained another injury. Kris Beech took one shift in the second, during which he blocked a shot, and was absent for the remainder of the evening. Fans will be asked to bring equipment to the next home game on Friday against Carolina, just in case.

Steve Eminger described the situation as “real frustrating.” That’s what happens this time of year to teams with little to play for. Clubs like the Islanders – if they expect to make the playoffs – have to make short work of clubs like the Capitals. That’s what the Isles did. That is something to which this group of Caps must aspire – to be in the position of taking advantage of weaker opponents in a playoff drive.

That, unfortunately, will have to wait until next year . . . well, we hope next year.

Goalies Just Wanna Have Fu-un

In the red cornah . . . from Calgary, Alberta, Canada . . . weighing in at two-hunnert-an-tree pounds, all of which is stupid . . . The Binghamton Basher . . . Jeff . . . Glass-s-s-s-s-s-s.

And, in the white cornah . . . from some frenchie town I can't pronounce . . . weighing in at two-hunnert-an-tree pounds, all ot it heart . . . The Hershey Hammer . . . Max Dane-yo-o-o-o-o-o-o . . .

Gentlemen . . . remove your masks, and come out fighting . . .




Maxime Daigneault got five minutes for what he described as the first hockey fight in his life (fighting) and a bloody nose, Glass got 29 (leaving the crease, instigating, misconduct/instigating, fighting, game misconduct/secondary altercation), a knot over his eye, and the loss in a 7-1 contest.

Happy Birthday to Alexander Semin

...from the Islanders, sporting their new uniforms for next year.

Looking on at the "inside"

The Peerless read with great interest the first “Capitals Insider” online discussion moderated by the Washington Post's Capitals writer Tarik El-Bashir since the trading deadline. What follows is The Peerless’ take on some of the issues*…

Waldorf, Md.:1. Could a free agent shootout specialist help? If the Caps had won half of their overtime losses, they would be in the hunt for the playoffs...

Tarik El-Bashir:1) Yes. A free agent shootout specialist would help. I certainly think that's something McPhee is must consider this summer. And, yeah, those points lost are a killer…

The Peerless’ Take: The shootout problems of the Caps are the kind of thing that can be overanalyzed and overemphasized. Certainly, that 1-10 record in eleven shootouts is a problem…this year. But had they gone 6-5, they would have 65 points and still be looking at a steep climb to catch Carolina (in eighth place this morning). The Caps have two of the finest stickhandlers and shooters one could hope for in the Alexes. The club could have serviceable shootout players in guys like Tomas Fleischmann or Eric Fehr down the road. But to burn resources for a “shootout specialist?” It’d be like adding a “faceoff specialist” along the lines of a Yanic Perreault. He is gifted at his task (and is on a pace to have what would be a 31-goal season over 82-games), but he’s also been with four clubs in four seasons. Does that sort of thing really bring all that much to the table? It can, which is not to say it does. Tampa Bay is 10-1 in shootouts and is a borderline playoff team without that success. On the other hand, Boston is 8-3 in shootouts and will be getting fine tee times in April, while Detroit is 1-4, and they could have a deep playoff run.

While Brooks Laich’s name was invoked as a possibility, perhaps are we thinking also of a “Vyacheslav Kozlov” (7-of-9 on shootouts this year and a UFA at the end of the year) or an “Ales Kotalik” (5-of-7, but who has years left on his contract, thus necessitating a trade)? The Peerless thinks there is a broader and more important context to consider (one which is not, as yet, very clear) – what identity is the club seeking to build?

Kansas Board of Education: Do you think Caps will evolve next season for a good playoff run?

Tarik El-Bashir: It's way too early. Right now, there's no chance that THIS team would come anywhere close to the playoffs. But let's see what McPhee does this summer.

You can take this to the bank: If this free agency period doesn't go well, and the team misses the playoffs next season, too, heads will roll.

The Peerless’ Take: We’ve said elsewhere that this upcoming off-season has the makings of being the critical time in the progress of the rebuild. The kids are beginning to come of age, and the time is ripe to infuse the club with more mature, veteran talent. The Peerless agrees that this club, as constituted, would have a difficult time making the playoffs (although the words “no chance” are perhaps a bit strong if “this team” is healthy). The club needs to send a message – to fans that they really are serious about building a winner and justifying the investment fans (whatever number that might be) have made in ticket purchases, and to players that management will do what it takes to support the efforts they’ve put in to improve themselves and the club. If the Caps come up dry in bringing in talent this summer, one wonders what incentive fans will have to come to the rink and what effect the failure will have on efforts on the ice.

Arlington, Va.: Are the Caps certain that Backstrom will be playing in D.C. next season? What are your thoughts on his ability to make an impact right away?

Tarik El-Bashir: I don't think anyone can be certain Backstrom will come over next season. I just think everyone expects that he will.

I spoke to Bengt Gustafsson last night (former Cap and coach of Team Sweden) and he said that Backstrom still hasn't informed his SEL team that he's planning to leave for the NHL next season.

The Peerless’ Take: It would be easy to overreact to something like this, and The Peerless admits that when he read this for the first time, he wondered if the Caps drafted the wrong guy, if he had the constitution to flourish here. Thinking about it, hey…he’s a kid – 19 years old. And by the way…Peter Forsberg (with whom Backstrom has been compared) did not make his NHL debut until he was 21. We’re not going to worry too much about this.

Arlington, Va.: Okay, short and sweet.

Gomez or Datsyuk?

Tarik El-Bashir: I'd be shocked if the Caps didn't target Datsyuk. After all, he's played with Ovechkin in Russia, and they "think" the game the same way.

That said, I love Gomez's game.

I'm pretty sure both are going to be hearing from the Caps the moment free agency begins.

Rockville, Md.:"The NHL prohibits managers from discussing players who are the property of other teams, so I'm not at liberty to mention specific names, but we track the status of every player the in league as well as where each team stands in relation to the salary cap."

Is that code for "I want to go after Briere"?

Tarik El-Bashir: No, it's code for: "I want to go after Datsyuk."

Foggy Bottom, D.C.: I know it's probably tampering but if Ovechkin casually called his friend Datsyuk and suggested that he should come to Washington for some good money, no one would get in trouble (caught), right?

Tarik El-Bashir: That would not be tampering. That would be two friends talking about next season. Now, if Ovechkin were to fax him a contract proposal ... that would be something else. (Before anyone asks, that hasn't happened).

The Peerless’ Take: These questions are all part of a larger piece that gets back to the matter of “personality.” What kind of club are the Caps’ building here? Are the Caps building a club with a personality into which they fit talent, or are they trying to build a club around a talent? The issue here is, well, the talent. Alexander Ovechkin and the Caps are a marriage of skill and a drive that exudes a gritty, balls-to-the-wall, run-your-mother-over mentality to the game. It is the gritty, earnest 1980’s attitude on steroids and with more skill. OK, so…is that the kind of club you’re trying to build, or are you trying to build around Ovechkin (you may read that to mean, “make Ovechkin happy”)?

Enter Pavel Datsyuk. OK, why would he be at the top of the free agent center wish list?

The positives: fine set-up guy, sees the ice really well, has improved on faceoffs, a good match for the speed game of the NHL.

The negatives: can be pushed around, has been a complement to what has always been a strong team for the span of his career (he hasn’t had to be “the man”), is not a great shooter, is 3-12-15, -1, in 42 playoff games.

The Peerless looks at the possibility of his arrival and has a little queasiness. We’re wondering . . . “Robert Lang?” That was the element that was supposed to bring out the rest of Jaromir Jagr’s game. That went well, didn’t it? Datsyuk is a fine player. He might be the center the Caps need. But it is not a slam dunk, obvious conclusion to make. And the bigger question the club ought to be asking is, “does Datsyuk fit into the team personality we’re building?” Not, “will he make Alex happy?”

* We’re not taking issue with Tarik’s commentary – the questions and answers provide the context.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, March 3, 2007

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Kris Beech
Donald Brashear
Chris Clark
Ben Clymer
Rico Fata
Jamie Heward
Bryan Muir
Richard Zednik
Dainius Zubrus
Brian Pothier
Brian Sutherby
Shaone Morrisonn
Boyd Gordon
Steve Eminger
Alexander Semin
Brooks Laich
Alexander Ovechkin
Mike Green
Olaf Kolzig
Brent Johnson

That was your opening night lineup for the Caps last October. Almost half of it spent significant time injured, are currently injured, have been traded or waived, or have been sent to Hershey. To the players remaining, add Eric Fehr and Matt Pettinger to the injury list (Pettinger perhaps both beginning and ending the season injured). That’s fully half of 22 players turned over in some fashion this year. It is a lot of churning for a young club with depth issues to have to endure, and the record reflects that.

Fans will say, “well, Buffalo has injuries,” or “Anaheim has had injuries.” Well, gee…Buffalo was a better (not to mention deeper) club coming into the season. They were, after all, a conference finalist last year. Anaheim was a pre-season favorite to reach the Cup final. The Peerless doesn’t recall the Caps being part of either of those conversations. The club that the Caps will finish with – starting tonight against the New York Islanders – will be looking more to next year than to anything with respect to the 2006-2007 season.

The Islanders, on the other hand, have much to play for. The Peerless (certainly not alone in this respect) felt at the start of the year that the Islanders would explore new vistas in suckitude, the club being run by a fool (the owner), a novice (the general manager) and an outcast (the coach). The Islanders are not guaranteed a playoff berth just yet – they are only one point ahead of Montreal, but with three games in hand -- but they have shown a resiliency and a grit to make it this far and remain in the playoff mix.

The Islanders are 6-1-1 in their last eight games, the last seven of which were played on Long Island. Only two of those games were decided by more than one goal, which explains the Islanders’ comparatively thin 25-22 scoring advantage over this stretch. In the six one-goal decisions, the Isles are 5-0-1 (including three extra time wins). It is the photo-negative of the Capitals, who since the 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh on February 3^rd have had nine one-goal games in 12 contests, going 2-2-5. One of those wins, though, was over the Islanders – the Capitals’ only shootout win this season.

The Islanders have been something of an odd club in this eight-game stretch, especially with respect to special teams. Four goals in 21 power play chances is certainly respectable (19.0 percent), but killing only 20 of 27 shorthanded situations (74.1 percent) really isn’t. They’ve given up at least one power play goal in six of the last eight games.

Jason Blake, who in most respects seems to be the skating embodiment of the Islanders’ personality, has been the go-to guy over these last eight – 5-4-9, +6. But, he hasn’t been without some support. Trent Hunter has chipped in a 5-1-6, even line, while Mike Sillinger and former-Cap Chris Simon have chipped in three goals apiece. This constitutes almost two-thirds of the Islanders’ scoring in their last eight games.

Rick DiPietro has gotten the call in all of the last eight, going 5-1-1. He’s carried a 2.68 GAA and .912 save percentage over this span, pretty much mirror images of his season numbers of 2.67, .915. He is 4-2-1, 1.99, .928 in his career against Washington.

These are teams on opposite sides of the divide – the Isles are in the top eight, the Caps are not. The Isles were buyers at the deadline (Ryan Smyth, Richard Zednik), the Caps were sellers (Dainius Zubrus, Zednik, Lawrence Nycholat, Jamie Heward). The Isles have been winning one-goal games, the Caps have been losing them. The Isles have been proficient in extra time games, the Caps have been struggling.

But while the teams are on opposite sides of the divide, they are not that far apart. The Isles have 25 goals in their last eight games, the Caps 24. The Isles have yielded 22 goals in their last eight, the Caps 26. The possibility looms large that this game won’t end until around 10:00. “Shootout” is in the air…maybe one like the ten-rounder the Caps endured on Thursday against the Lightning.

It says here, that’s where we’re going. Alexandre Giroux with the winner in a shootout . . .

Caps 4 – Islanders 3.

After-Math . . . Caps vs. Lightning

It’s a one-point night, campers.

Well, it coulda been better, it coulda been worse. If the Caps were in the playoff hunt, it would have been infuriating. Where to start . . .

- The Caps didn’t record a shot for the first 8:25, then they scored on their first shot.

- The Caps recorded six shots in the first 30 minutes, then they had seven shots in four minutes and scored two goals.

- Milan Jurcina and Vaclav Prospal locked up as they were skating into the Olympia Corner…Jurcina didn’t just check Prospal into the boards, he exploded into him. Anyone who has ever hit a blocking dummy in football drills would appreciate that hit. It was all leverage.

- Dear sweet God in heaven, the Caps need a freakin’ center (and no, Dainius Zubrus was not what The Peerless had in mind). It is depressing to have to watch Alexander Ovechkin (or Alexander Semin) have to carry the mail, open the mail, read the mail, and send a reply every time the Caps have the puck. Can’t anyone on this team make a move and a pass to either of these guys in space?...apparently not.

- Brent Johnson’s game was a microcosm of his season. Stretches of inspiring effort followed by inexplicable brain farts. The Peerless especially loved (he said tongue-in-cheek) the one where the puck was bounced off the end boards, and Johnson lollygagged his way back to the crease just before the puck would have hit him in the skate and trickled in. You want to cut that any closer, big guy? We’re guessing he wants that Fedotenko goal back, too.

- Nothing symbolizes the Nu NHL more than a back and forth game, an overtime with three power plays (one carrying over from the end of regulation) and a shootout decided by a guy with a name that sounds like an extra (“Cop #3”) from West Side Story who had never so much as taken a shootout attempt in his career. The Peerless wanted to retch.

- The Peerless would like to know . . . how is it that a team captain gets all of 9:03 of playing time?

- Goat and Horn Guy were in playoff form tonight.

- Kiss Cam sucks. No, really . . . it really, really sucks.

- The thin margin of error – three posts hit in the third period and overtime.

- Jurcina took two penalties, both apparently for being 6’4”.

The Caps played well in spots; they played atrociously in spots. That’s been their season. It will probably continue to be their season. It is a young team, perhaps about to get younger with possible injuries to Matt Pettinger (apparently too injured to participate in the shootout) and Boyd Gordon. The last 17 games are essentially the equivalent of Redskin mini-camp. The club will get a look-see at the hand they hold and get a better idea of what holes they have to fill beyond the obvious subjects (center, right wing, defenseman). Hey, keep your chins up, campers . . . it’s not like it’s 1975.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Game One in The Age of Novotny. The Caps will go forward – beginning tonight with their contest against Tampa Bay – looking like the youth movement they’ve been trumpeting for the last couple of years. The departure of Dainius Zubrus and Richard Zednik – with almost 1,300 games of NHL experience between them – depart in favor of Jiri Novotny, he of the 64 games of experience. The forwards likely taking the ice tonight will have an average age of just over 25, and that includes the 35-year old Donald Brashear.

Outside of Brashear and his 828 games of NHL experience, the other 11 forwards will bring a total of just over 1,800 games of experience – barely two full seasons worth of experience on average. By way of comparison, the “big three” forwards for Tampa Bay – Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards – have almost 1,600 games of experience among them and a Stanley Cup. We’re not saying the Caps are young, but shaving cream is being replaced with lollipops in the locker room.

This is the club that will take on Tampa Bay tonight, a club that has lost only six games in regulation this calendar year (18-6-2). And the Caps had better do their best to win in regulation, since the Lightning are 8-2 in extra time in 2007, including a perfect 7-0 in shootouts. Washington is 3-4 in extra time since the start of the new year, 1-4 in shootouts.

The clubs last played two weeks ago, and since then have continued the paths they ware blazing before that contest. Washington has been sinking in the standings (1-3-2 since losing to Tampa Bay – in a shootout – on February 15^th), the Lightning have continued their climb (3-1-2).

If there is a bright sign, it is that Alex Ovechkin appears to have been awakened from his winter slumber. After a ten game stretch in which he was 1-2-3, -4; he has been 3-2-5, +2 in his last two games.

Although it would be tempting to say Frederic Cassivi will get the nod in goal tonight off his 45-minute against Florida on Tuesday night in which he gave up one goal on 18 shots (1.33, .944) in the 6-5 shootout loss, it would seem likely that Brent Johnson will return between the pipes for this game. He has a fine career mark against Tampa Bay – 4-1-1-1, 2.07, .933. He gave up only two goals in the 3-2 shootout loss to the Lightning two weeks ago in his first start in relief of Olaf Kolzig.

Nothing points to a Caps win tonight. Nothing. Tampa has more experience, they are playing better over a long stretch, they are deeper and more skilled, they are healthier. But, after going 3-6-4 in February, the calendar has turned a page. It’s March, and the Caps are 0-0-0. It says here they will start on a high note . . .

Caps 4 – Lightning 3.

Two deals that will bite their teams in the caboose...

1. Ryan Smyth traded from Edmonton to the New York Islanders for a first-round draft pick and prospects Ryan O'Marra and Robert Nilsson

The Peerless really likes Smyth, but he has been a fixture in Edmonton since he was drafted sixth overall by the Oilers in 1994. It says here that he is going to experience a bit of culture shock getting out of the gate, and even though it's Long Island, the greater New York metropolitan area is not the place to be making slow starts. More to the point, the Islanders gave up a substantial amount of the near term future to rent him.

2. Gary Roberts traded from Florida to Pittsburgh for Noah Welch

This is a trade a club makes when the veteran is the last piece of the puzzle, a trade for a club that has legitimate Stanley Cup dreams. Pittsburgh is not that team. And they gave up perhaps their best prospect defenseman in a thin group of that specie. If Marc-Andre Fleury doesn't come out of his eight-game funk, this is going to look like a really, really bad deal in May.

After-Math . . . Caps vs. Panthers

It was a one point night . . .

Day 1 of the post-trading deadline season. No Zubrus, no Zednik, no Heward. Alex Ovechkin’s first shift on the night was spent alongside Brian Sutherby and Donald Brashear. He also spent time being centered by Brooks Laich and Kris Beech.

Such is the state of things now. The Caps will spend a lot of the remaining 19 games, including the 6-5 shootout loss to Florida, figuring out what works with the parts they still have on hand. And if that means seeing if Brooks Laich or Kris Beech can provide an accompaniment to Ovechkin on the top line, so be it.

Things started bad for the Caps – they gave up a goal less than two minutes in on the second shot they allowed. Then, they got worse. Florida went on to score three goals on their first ten shots covering less than eight minutes of game time. Looked like it would be another one of those kinds of nights. The Caps looked for all the world like a club in a state of mourning for having lost the trio of teammates during the afternoon. That they were wearing black seemed curiously appropriate.

Then, the strange happened . . . Alex Ovechkin scored a goal. Not just a goal, but one on a move Caps fans have come to recognize in his short tenure here – a speed move to the outside and with the defenseman beaten, a shot far top corner. That was followed by something even stranger . . . Brian Sutherby scored a goal. Well, maybe not so strange – it was his third goal in five games, doubling his season output. All of a sudden, we’re watching the Saturday game from Mystery, Alaska. Back and forth and up and down and in and out. It was like watching a long rally at a tennis match. Florida scored again . . . then the Caps got it back.

Then Freddy came in.

Frederic Cassivi relieve Johnson to start the second, and it seemed more to shake up the club than a result of any particular problems in Johnson’s play (it appeared that two Panther goals were scored off Capitals’ sticks or at least the result of really good screens by Caps’ defensemen – John Erskine, we’re looking at you). Freddy played very, very well, precisely because he was calm and didn’t overplay shooters. He more or less let the game come to him. He did make a couple of fine pad saves but otherwise made saves look quite routine. It was enough to give the Caps the backstopping they needed to get back into the game (he would finish by yielding only one goal on 18 shots). It would be hard to argue with Ovechkin getting the first star, or even Olli Jokinen getting the second one. Sutherby had his goal, added an assist, and won a ridiculous 10 of 12 draws, so one could see him getting the third star. But Freddy gets the slice o’ pie tonight.

Some other observations . . .

- Coach Glen Hanlon was double-shifting, down-shifting, red-shifting, and shape-shifting Ovechkin and Alexander Semin all over the place. Ovechkin finished with 26:33 in ice time, Semin 24:33.

- Milan Jurcina hits hard…very hard.

- Brooks Laich might have played his best game as a Cap.

- Ben Clymer – who wasn’t traded to Pittsburgh – hasn’t had a minus game in more than a month (he was +1 this evening). Steve Eminger hasn’t had one in more than a month, either (he was +1, too). They had some healthy scratches in there, but these two guys – each of whom had some major plus-minus problems for much of the year – have a combined 17 games between them without a minus. Small victories, folks . . . small victories.

- Did we mention, Milan Jurcina hits very hard?

- Gosh . . . the power play was 3-for-5. It matched their high in power play goals in a game this year (December 23^rd -- a 3-2 win at Toronto). They haven’t had more in a game since the 2003-2004 season (March 18, 2004 – four power play goals in a 4-3 overtime win against the New York Rangers).

- It’s clear that the Caps trust Milan Jurcina and Shaone Morrisonn in tight situations. A look at the shift chart for the game shows that over the last nine minutes of the game (including overtime), they were on the ice for every other shift. On the other hand, Bryan Muir had a seat for the last 14 minutes (including overtime). We do not know if he was injured or just gassed.

- Rob Globke isn’t a name, it’s a condition . . . “hey Rob, you got a little globke on your lip…”

The Caps got a point no one thought possible at about 7:30 this evening. The shootout is a lost cause this year (so is it for Florida, so it goes to show how much a lost cause Washington’s shootout effort is), so we're going to call this a “good” point considering the Caps never led in the game.

The Peerless Thinks Out Loud on Trades

Well, it's over. The great philosopher Donald Rumsfeld once opined that, "as you know, you have to go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you want." Well, this is the hockey team we have. Zednik out...Nycholat out...Helbling out...Zubrus out. Andy Hedlund in...Jiri Novotny in...and a few picks.

Fans will wail and knash teeth . . . "why, oh why McPhee, did you not get us a real live player?! Where is our center? Where is our defenseman?" Fans need to look past the end of February. You take advantage of the opportunities provided and the nature of the market in which you're dealing. The trade deadline is about buyers who want a proven asset to get them over the hump, while sellers are looking to move assets to stockpile picks and prospects from those teams willing to give up a part of their future for a present value return. Folks, the summer will be about finding that higher-end center or defenseman via trade or free agency. This wasn't the market for that.

Now, on to the trades:

OUT: Richard Zednik to NY Islanders
IN: 2007 second round pick

Right now, that pick looks to fall into the 40th-45th pick overall range. We've beaten to death the fact that the Caps do not have on their roster but one pick past the first round of their own picks over the last decade. On paper, this is a fine deal, a steal in fact -- Zednik should not have commanded a pick this high, and where he cost a third to Montreal he brought a second back -- but if the Caps are now a "build through the draft" team, they have to draft well, and that includes this pick. Trouble is, the likely yield won't make itself known until 2010 or so, at the earliest.

OUT: Lawrence Nycholat to Ottawa
IN: Andy Hedlund, 6th round pick (2007)

Well, this seems to have be the premonition of the Zubrus trade that would be made later. Hedlund is the defenseman that permitted the Caps to include Helbling in that later deal. Not that Helbling was key to that deal, but it the kind of attention to detail -- getting a depth defenseman for Hershey in advance of moving another -- that one might expect from George McPhee. Since Nycholat was almost certainly never going to play again for Hershey this year, given the waiver environment, the Caps literally got something for nothing (that is not a disparagement of Nycholat, for his fans reading this...The Peerless hopes he has a successful run in Ottawa). As for the sixth round pick coming back -- Kyle Clark, Zbynek Novak, Marian Havel...we won't hold our breath.

OUT: Jamie Heward to Los Angeles
IN: 5th round pick (2008, conditional)

This one is perplexing until you look at the log jam on the blue line: Heward, Eminger, Erskine, Pothier, Jurcina, Morrisonn, Schultz, Muir...and Green down there in Hershey. Heward would be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and likely did not fit into the 2007/2008 plans. But there is the distant rumble of thunder with this trade. There is still a log jam at the position, even if one does not expect Bryan Muir to come back. If one expects the Caps to try to add a veteran defenseman, one of these guys very well might not be a Cap come next training camp (and yeah, this is part of the "we'll get to that" that we're getting to).

OUT: Dainius Zubrus, Timo Helbling to Buffalo
IN: Jiri Novotny, 1st round pick (2007)

This is an interesting deal on several levels, not least with respect to its aftermath. We'll get to that. As for the deal itself, Novotny is now the early favorite to start next year as the second line center . . . maybe (that's part of the "we'll get to that," too). Novotny led the Buffalo AHL affiliate Rochester Americans in scoring last year (17-37-54 in 66 games. Ten of his 17 goals were power play tallies). He was 6-7-13 in 50 games this season with the big club, but hasn't scored a goal since December 9th (23 games). As for the first round draft pick, that could be a trading asset. Right now, the Caps own what would be the 6th and 29th picks in the first round in what is thought to be a middling draft. If the Caps were inclined to trade a pick for a player, a sixth overall in this draft might not be enough to get anyone to bite. Add another first round pick?...

OK, let's get to the "let's get to that" with respect to the aftermath. First, the comments by George McPhee after the deal was made were, to The Peerless, of the "read between the lines" variety. He was quick to commend Zubrus and his agent for being professional in the negotiations, for liking the way he dealt with the situation since negotiations began in November, and was generally effusive in his praise of Zubrus. It had all the tone of "keep us in mind in July." Trouble is, I think Zubrus just lost $1.5 million or so. He was not an especially productive scorer before being matched with Alex Ovechkin, and it appears more than a mere possibility that a return to that disappointing production will manifest itself once more. That will cost him -- you don't get top line dollars or term for what might end up being third line production, which was his history before the last couple of years. He might already have seen the best offer he's going to get.

Second, this move telegraphs the Capitals' thinking leading into the off season. Having Novotny and Backstrom as the top two centers is a stretch. One will take about 80 games of NHL experience into camp next fall; the other will be a rookie in his first year in North America. The Capitals have to add a free agent center and almost certainly one who can slide into the top line, giving Backstrom and Novotny time to grow into their roles (perhaps Novotny getting time on the right side). If the Caps fill that need -- with a center who is a center (perhaps by dangling a defenseman or looking to go the free agency route), replacing a winger conversion better suited for second or third line duty (who can't be entirely ruled out from coming back), and still have a draft pick to use or trade as a result of this trade -- the Caps not only will have a major plus out of this deal, it could be seen in retrospect as a defining moment in the rebuild.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, February 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

A special Deadline Day edition of the prognosto . . .

At this writing the Caps have dealt Richard Zednik to the Islanders for a 2007 second round pick and Lawrence Nycholat to Ottawa for a 2007 sixth round pick and defenseman Andy Hedlund, who looks thrilled to be a Cap.

By the time the Caps take the ice against Florida this evening, the club might have said its farewells to Dainius Zubrus and Jamie Heward as well. It promises to be a busy day, or not.

As for tonight’s opponent, the Florida Panthers are what begin and end the month for the Caps. Since losing to the Panthers on February 1^st by a 6-3 margin, the Panthers have been treading water, going 4-3-3. While the Panthers have outscored opponents by a thin 27-25 margin over those ten games, they have had problems on special teams . . .

- fewer power play opportunities than opponents: 41 for, 53 against

- fewer power play goals: 5 for, 12 against

- lower power play conversion rate: 12.2 percent for, 22.6 percent against (77.4 percent penalty kill)

More than one-fourth of the goal scoring has come from a single player in this stretch, but it’s not who you might think. Olli Jokinen has been held comparatively quiet at 3-5-8, +2 over the last ten games. Nathan Horton, though, has been on quite a streak. He is 7-4-11, +3 over these last ten games. The Peerless wonders if a new Panther line is going to be formed.

If the Panthers have been treading water, the Caps have been thrashing in the deep end of the pool. They are 3-5-3 since last they saw the Panthers, and only a 4-2 win against the Devils last Saturday can qualify as a “quality” win. It is a team in disarray at the moment – Alex Ovechkin is 2-2-4, -4 in 11 games since the last meeting against the Panthers, Alexander Semin was benched in his last game for lackadaisical play (he’s 3-2-5, over the same stretch), Chris Clark was injured (shoulder) in the San Jose contest (he was 2-1-3, -4 in this stretch up to that point), and Dainius Zubrus has “trade me” stenciled to his forehead (2-3-5, -5). So much for the “big four.”

If there has been a bright spot, it’s been the play of goalie Brent Johnson in relief of the injured Olaf Kolzig. He has a 1-3-2 record since taking over the top spot, but he is also 2.61, .911 in those games. That the Caps have scored only 24 goals in the 11 games since playing Florida (only 15 in six games since Johnson took over) goes a long way to explaining the win-loss record. So does special teams play . . . four power play goals in 39 chances (10.3 percent) and giving up 12 in 48 shorthanded situations (75.0 percent penalty kill) isn’t a recipe for winning.

All of that said, The Peerless thinks this game will be ugly. Re-e-e-e-eal ugly. And, bad as the special teams have been for both teams, none of them will be a factor. Brent Johnson will be . . .

Caps 1 – Panthers 0.

The Velocity of Trades

In economics, the term “velocity” refers to the rate at which money changes hands in an economy. Let’s apply a variation of that to sports – specifically, trades. How can one trade’s velocity – the number of exchanges that trade influences in sequence to arrive at a result far down the road that is not at first glance at all related -- impact a club?

Let’s look at one trade in 1982. You’ve probably heard of it. On September 9 of that year, the Caps traded Rick Green and Ryan Walter to the Montreal Canadiens for Brian Englblom, Doug Jarvis, Craig Laughlin, and Rod Langway. Langway went on to become a Hall of Fame defenseman, but he is not what concerns us about this trade. Brian Engblom does . . .

On October 18, 1983, Engblom was traded to Los Angeles with Ken Houston for defenseman Larry Murphy. Murphy, who would later become an object of derision for Caps fans, put in six solid seasons with the club before his role in this adventure unfolded . . .

On March 7, 1989, Murphy was traded with Mike Gartner to Minnesota for Dino Ciccarelli and Bob Rouse. Rouse would be sent to with Peter Zezel to Toronto for Al Iafrate, which is a fork in this road we’ll come back to later. Meanwhile, Ciccarelli quickly become a fan favorite, spending parts of four seasons with the club before his moment would come . . .

On June 20, 1992, Ciccarelli was traded to Detroit for Kevin Miller. Miller – of the famous East Lansing Millers (that’s another story for another time) – was probably the least heralded of that family to make it to the NHL. Certainly his footprint in Caps history is not very deep . . . 10 whole games worth . . .

On November 2, 1992, Miller was sent off to St. Louis for Paul Cavallini. Cavallini was actually making his second stop with the Caps, having been drafted by the club in 1984 (he was sent to St. Louis in a totally forgettable trade – for a draft pick that became Wade Bartley). This time, Cavallini would last one season before he exited the stage . . .

On June 26, 1993, Cavallini was sent to Dallas for Enrico Ciccone. Ciccone spent 46 games with the Caps, during which he was on a first name basis with most of the off-ice officials manning the league’s penalty boxes. It was a short stay, but it would lead to the climax of our journey . . .

On March 31, 1994, Ciccone – with the Caps third round draft pick for 1994 and a conditional draft pick – was sent to Tampa Bay for Joe Reekie. Reekie would spend parts of nine seasons with the Caps, serving as “the steady guy” on his pairings, permitting guys like Sergei Gonchar to pile up some fine offensive numbers from the blue line.

Back to Bob Rouse . . . as we noted, he was sent to Toronto with Peter Zezel for Al Iafrate. Iafrate – the sort of character that defines the word “character” in hockey – spent four seasons in Washington before being traded to Boston for Joe Juneau on March 21, 1994. Caps fans will remember Juneau as the guy who scored the game and series-deciding goal against Buffalo in 1998 that sent the Caps to their first – and to date, only – Stanley Cup final.

As we ponder the big deals about to unfold in the next 24 hours, it might pay to think about the “throw-ins” in some of these deals and the road that leads from Brian Engblom.

Let's Make a Deal!

OK, Monty . . . I'll ta-a-a-a-a-ke . . . door number-r-r-r-r-r . . . three-no-one-no-two-no . . . oh, this is so hard!

Well, we’re down to the nub of it. The trading deadline is fast approaching, and the rumors will be coming fast and furious up to the 3:00 pm (Eastern) Tuesday deadline. Who for the Caps has a “trade me” sign pasted to his back?

Richard Zednik (32 games, 6-12-18, -4). Zednik will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, one marred by injury. Instead of manning the right side of the first or second line, as projected last fall, he is trying merely to rehabilitate his season as the schedule winds to the trading deadline. At this point, it seems a virtual certainty he will be dealt. The likely return?...a third or fourth round pick.

Dainius Zubrus (60 games, 20-32-52, -16). Another unrestricted at year-end, the sticking point here has been his agreeing to terms with the club on an extension. The scenario is unfolding as the classic “get something for him before he walks.” A player who can play any forward position and in any situation has value, but Caps fans might overvalue him based on the “Ovechkin effect” (he has a career best in goals, assists, and points last year, and is on a pace to set new career bests in each this year). This could be one of those deals that will be talked about by Caps fans for some time to come. It really is a critical deal in that the return will be expected to fill a hole in the short term. The Peerless doubts Atlanta is offering up Boris Valabik and a draft pick (don’t laugh . . . it’s no more wacky than any other deal they’ve made so far), but we’ll make a prognostication in the spirit of Don Waddell . . . watch that first rounder Montreal secured from San Jose for Craig Rivet. That, and Andrei Kostitsyn, will be coming south for Zubrus and perhaps a mid-round pick.

Jamie Heward (52 games, 4-11-15, +3). Heward had a slow re-start after sustaining a gruesome skate-blade injury against Dallas on November 30. In the first 15 games he played upon his return, he was 1-1-2, -4. In his last 16 games, he is 1-6-7, +5. Not Gonchar-esque, but it might be enough to return a fourth round pick.

Ben Clymer (55 games, 7-10-17, -14). Clymer had had a difficult year, even by the standards of a young, struggling team. Starting on defense – and experiment that ended after a dozen games – he dug himself into a hole and never really recovered to the level of performance he displayed last season. That the Caps have an abundance of 3^rd/4^th line types of forward, plus a $983,000 cap hit for Clymer over the next two seasons, makes him expendable. There is a rumor (ok, it’s Bruce Garrioch – Ottawa’s answer to Larry Brooks) that the Penguins are interested. If he brings back more than a fifth round pick, it would be a surprise, and that’s unfortunate. Clymer is one of those guys who has done all that’s been asked of him and given an honest effort each night. One wishes the year could have gone better for him, and if he isn’t moved, that this year is but a blip on the career radar.

Steve Eminger (53 games, 1-12-13, -7). He’s been a healthy scratch since playing against the Rangers on February 10^th (six games), and the speculation is that he was being held out in anticipation of a trade. The Peerless doesn’t buy that argument. Rather, The Peerless thinks he was sat down to showcase Jamie Heward. Even with Mike Green returned to Hershey, the return of John Erskine to the lineup meant that someone had to sit, and the guy you sit isn’t the one you’re showcasing for purposes of shopping. In fact, sitting him would likely have depressed his value. He’s not going anywhere.

Kris Beech (45 games, 6-14-20, -5). It would appear unlikely that he will be moved at the deadline. There just would not appear to be a market for him.

Brian Sutherby (60 games, 5-9-14, -2). He’s had a disappointing year offensively, but he’s only -2 on this club (a 15 point improvement on last year). Was last year’s 14-goal season a fluke? This year has been hard to explain. This is the last year on his current deal, which might complicate the matter of whether to move him. The Peerless’ magic 8-ball says he stays.

The Caps will be sellers, but The Peerless suspects they will be picky sellers. There is no obvious pressure to make a deal, although there would be the "move him or lose him" thinking attached to Zednik and Zubrus. Caps fans might look at the deals Atlanta made and think -- gee, maybe Pittsburgh will send Jordan Staal for Zednik. Let's not get carried away with other folks' wackiness.