Pay Attention, or This Man Will Find You

Former Capital Kevin Kaminski is hosting a chat this evening, starting at 6:45. Here is the scoop from CSNWashington.com...

"Join former Capital, Kevin "Killer" Kaminski to chat all things Caps and learn about his playing days, on Tuesday October 27th, when the Capitals take on the Flyers. The chat starts at 6:45 pm."

Kaminski, for the uninitiated, was a bundle of snap, crackle, and pop in a not-too-big body. In 132 games with the Caps covering four seasons in the mid-1990's, he racked up 483 penalty minutes. From that picture above, "Killer" looks as if he could still wreak havoc.

If you're not going to be at the game, I'd drop by...

...just in case.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, October 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Welcome home, boys. The Caps took a brief holiday from Fun Street and won both games on an abbreviated road trip to bring the winning streak to four, which is their longest winning streak since piecing together a seven-game winning streak from December 23rd through January 6th last season. The last win in that streak happened to come against the same Philadelphia Flyers that will visit Verizon Center this evening. But tonight, the Caps… uh, excuse me, but are you lost?

“Uh, no… “

You look familiar, do I know you?

“No, I just look like somebody.”

Well, are you a hockey fan?

“Uh… I am now.”

Do you follow the Caps?

“Yeah, yeah… I’m a Caps fan.”

How ‘bout that Ovechkin, eh? Second in the league points, second in goals…

“He didn’t have any goals in his last two games, did he?”

Well, no, but...

“He needs to be replaced. And while they’re at it, they need a new coach.”

Why is that?

“Because… and what’s the deal with the general manager?”

What do you mean? You don’t like George McPhee?

“Why have one? A waste of money.”

He seems to have rebuilt the team pretty well.

“Yeah, but do the Caps ever sign any big free agents? Do they draw 92,000 every week?

Well, no, but Verizon Center only seats…

“And do the Caps have the undying love of the Washington community?”

Well…

“Do they get the undivided attention of the Washington media?”

No, but they do one thing that other team doesn’t do…

“And that is?”

They win.

“Uh… can you hook me up with season tickets?”

Well, that might be a stretch, even for an esteemed blogger such as yours truly, but the Caps look good even on TV in this early going with their 6-2-2 record. But one of those losses was an overtime loss to these same Flyers back on October 6th, a game in which the Flyers chased goalie Semyon Varlamov with four second period goals. The Caps took a lead in the third period of that game, but yielded a goal late, then lost in overtime when Danny “Don’t Call Me Daniel” Briere netted the game winner. Overall, the numbers for these two teams look like this…



Since beating the Caps, though, the Flyers are 2-3-1, having been outscored by their opponents by 19-17. In those six games the Flyers’ scoring has come from the usual suspects. Jeff Carter is 2-5-7, Danny “DCMD” Briere is 4-1-5, and Mike “The Concusser” Richards is 1-3-4. But joining these three is “The Heralded Rookie” – James “Don’t Call Me Jimmy” Van Riemsdyk, who is also 1-3-4 in these last six games for the Flyers.

Meanwhile, Simon Gagne – who missed yesterday’s practice with “lower body soreness” – is poised to jump into the top-ten in all-time Flyer scoring, perhaps by mid-season. Gagne is currently 13th on the all-time Flyers scoring list with 489 points. Should he add 30 points to that total over the remainder of the year, he will pass Gary Dornhoefer for 10th place. Since the lockout, Gagne is 8-7-15, plus-3 in 14 games against the Caps, but seven goals and three assists of that total were achieved when the Caps were sucking along at 70 points in the first two seasons of that period.

Meanwhile, Danny “DCMD” Briere has had a similar pattern of success against the Caps since the lockout. In 13 games against Washington over that period, he is 6-7-13, -10. Two things to note about that. First, he’s been awful at even strength against the Caps (something to note, since the Caps are 2nd in the league at 5-on-5). Second, Briere recorded two goals and five assists of that total (not to mention a minus-2) in the first year after the lockout, when he was in Buffalo and the Caps were awful. As a Flyer, he is 1-4-5, even, in seven games against the Caps.

But the Flyers have had scoring coming from odd places, too. If you would have had both Arron Asham and Darrell Powe ahead of Simon Gagne and Scott Hartnell in goal scoring nine games into the season, go buy a lottery ticket. But that’s the case, as both Asham and Powe have three goals, while Gagne and Hartnell have one apiece.

What the Flyers have as well is a re-tooled defense. Chris Pronger is the big new addition, but the Flyers have also added Ole-“Is There a Worse Name for a Defenseman than ‘oh-LAY’”-Kristian Tollefsen from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Danny Syvret, who did play in two games late last year for the Flyers but is on the squad to start the year this season. Tollefsen has had health issues, playing in only 51 games two years ago and 19 last year. He missed four of the first six games this year with injuries.

Syvret, a graduate of the London Knights of the Ontario Hockey League, has points in two of his last three games. Along with Tollefsen, he has to provide some measure of relief for the top four of Pronger, Matt Carle, Kimmo Timonen, and Braydon Coburn, all of whom are averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time a game.

Since Brian Boucher started his first game of the season against San Jose on Sunday and allowed four goals on 28 shots in a 4-1 loss, the Flyers might be expected to go back to Ray Emery for this one. He got the decision in the 6-5 overtime win over the Caps on October 6th, but he was hardly a rock between the pipes. Or maybe he was, kind of just sitting there as the Caps shot pucks around him for five goals on 36 shots. Emery started well in his return to the NHL after a year in Russia, shutting out Carolina in the season opener, then allowing only two goals to the Devils in his second start. Then, he allowed the five goals to the Caps, which he followed up with a five goals allowed effort against Pittsburgh. He’s righted the ship somewhat, going 2-1-1 in his last four appearances (2.17, .914). It’s worth noting, though, that three of those games were against Florida (twice) and Anaheim, teams that rank in the bottom quarter of the league in scoring.

The Caps have held a lead in the third period in each of the last four games they’ve played against the Flyers. They’ve lost two of those games, one in a Gimmick. This is not a pattern you’d like to establish against a team you might be meeting in the spring. You’d expect the the big guns to show up for a big game like this, and the young guns have had some success against the Flyers:

Alex Ovechkin: 17 games (regular season), 16-12-28
Alexander Semin: 13 games, 6-5-11
Nicklas Backstrom: 9 games, 3-9-12
Mike Green: 15 games, 2-4-6

But the key might be a Mike Knuble. In 25 career games against the Flyers, Knuble has one goal, that coming with the Bruins in December 2000. Even though he’s played but one game against the Flyers since the 2003-2004 season, you might say he’s due.

Caps 4 – Flyers 2

First and Tens -- The First Ten-Game Segment: Defensemen and Goaltenders

If the last time we did this we covered the forwards, then we are left with the defensemen and goaltenders. How did they do in their respective first ten-game segments?

Brian Pothier

For Pothier, the difference in this year’s first ten games versus last year’s is being in the lineup. Last year at this time, Pothier’s career was still in doubt in the aftermath of a concussion suffered in January 2008. This year, he has been in the lineup for nine of the first ten games, registering an assist in that span while averaging 15:41 of ice time a night. If there is an odd number in Pothier’s first ten games, it is this – 12. He is averaging only 12 seconds of penalty killing time per game, by far the lowest number among defensemen (Tyler Sloan is next at 49 seconds).


Tom Poti

Health is also an ingredient in Poti’s start this year, as in “having it.” Last year, Poti played in only five of the first ten games of the season, missing five due to a groin injury. He has played in all 10 games for the Caps thus far. Here is how this year’s first ten compares to last year’s:



The number of note for Poti is the mirror image of that for Pothier – 4:49. That is the number that leads the Caps’ defensemen in penalty killing time, 1:46 more than the next highest number for the Caps (3:03 for Milan Jurcina). It is quite a turn for Poti, who was seen more as an offensive defenseman earlier in his career.


John Erskine

There is a bit of an odd consistency to Erskine’s starts last season and this. He’s missed a few games, but there is the one assist and the one fight last year and this. Here is how the two years compare…

Nothing here that leaps off the page, but for a defenseman, that’s not necessarily bad.


Milan Jurcina

Jurcina might be considered among the early leaders in the “most improved player” category…

And he’s doing it while logging more time on the ice than last year (17 minutes so far this year versus 15 in his first ten games last year). Here is your fun Jurcina number – five. Of the 29 goals surrendered by the Caps so far this year, Jurcina has been on the ice for only five of them. That is, no doubt, a function of time management, but he’s been efficient in the time he does spend on the ice, too.


Shaone Morrisonn

This is Morrisonn’s fifth full season with the Caps and in the first four he’s been rather consistent. There isn’t much difference between his performance in his first ten games (actually, he’s been in nine of the first ten so far) and last year’s…

Morrisonn can be counted on to provide between 10 and 15 points in 70-plus games and be a plus performer while skating as often as not as Mike Green’s partner at even strength. What he’s done a little more consistently versus this time last year is stay out of the penalty box. He was whistled for minors in seven of his first ten games last year, only in three of nine games so far this year… but those would be the last three games (four minors), too.


Mike Green

Green’s offensive production might be seen by some in Caps Nation as being down from last year, and the numbers point to this, at least as far as goal-scoring goes…

But that is being measured against quite a standard. Green is still on a pace for a 16-49-65 season that last year would have been second in scoring among defensemen… to Green. What seems to be the difference so far, at least in goal scoring, is shots, where he is 15 shots behind last year’s pace after ten games. Perhaps it is the violinist being picky about his bow, as Green has been finicky about his sticks. But he seems more comfortable now, which can’t be good news for goaltenders. On the other hand, Green has been on the ice for 10 of the 29 goals scored against the Caps thus far, including the two shorthanded goals allowed in the past two games.


Jeff Schultz

Every team, it seems, needs a whipping boy, and Schultz is it for Caps fans, even if they’ve had fewer opportunities to express their affection this year than last…

But still, there is Schultz… second in scoring among Caps defensemen, tied for second in plus-minus, and for all the abuse heaped upon him, he’s only been on the ice for four goals among the 19 goals scored against the Caps in games he’s played. He’s neither the next Norris winner, nor the worst defenseman in the league. He is comfortably between those two poles, which isn’t bad for a 23-year old defenseman.


Tyler Sloan

Sloan announced his presence with authority last year, splattering Calgary’s Daymond Langkow with an open-ice check on his third NHL shift, then drawing 19 minutes in penalties from Rene Bourque when Bourque decided retaliation was a good idea. Sloan hasn’t left as big an impression in three games so far this season, but it is consistent – numbers-wise – with his performance in the first ten last year…

But what might be a bit disturbing is that of the nine goals scored against the Caps in games in which Sloan has played, he’s been on the ice for four of them.


Semyon Varlamov

Varlamov started his NHL career with a bang last season, beginning with his 2-1 debut win in Montreal on December 13th. He hasn’t lost a game in regulation in the regular season yet (8-0-1). But this year’s numbers are off – a 3.25 GAA and .884 save percentage make him a “second page” goalie in the NHL.com rankings of goaltenders (he is 40th in GAA and 44th in save percentage). Including playoff games, he’s allowed at least four goals in seven of his last nine appearances. He shown that he has considerable talent, and he’s shown that he can give up goals in bunches in a hurry. He needs to find a happy place of consistency.


Jose Theodore

Coming into the season having faced personal misfortune and facing a challenge from a hot new prospect, Theodore has improved his numbers significantly over his opening ten-game segment last year…

Last year, he allowed at least four goals in three of his eight appearances in this segment. This season, he has allowed as many as four goals once in seven appearances. Five times he has allowed two or fewer, and he has a save percentage of at least .919 in each of his last four appearances. But for Theodore, the question is now, as it was last year, can he consistently produce at that level?

All in all, this year’s first ten-game segment compares more than favorably with last year’s first segment. But this is an 82-game season, too, and even with that, the regular season is but prelude to the post season. That is what expectations do. We expect that the Caps will be better at the start of this year than at the start of last year. We expect that they will be better, if not in the next segment, then certainly as the year goes on, and better again in the playoffs.

But for now, this is a pretty good start, despite the usual knashing of teeth in the usual places in Capitals Nation.

First and Tens -- The First Ten-Game Segment: Forwards

We’ve reached the first ten-game milepost, and the Caps are on a path that will see them pass the 100-point mark for the second consecutive season and the sixth time in club history. In fact, the Caps are on pace to finish with 115 points, which would be another club record. But it is, as they say, “early.” How does the team stack up to where they were at this point last year?...



By these measures, the Caps are ahead of last year in every category. But here is what sets this year’s first ten games apart from last year’s. Last year, the Caps played five playoff teams and one division winner from the previous season – Pittsburgh – in the first ten-game segment. This year, the Caps played six playoff teams and four division winners from the 2008-2009 season in their first seven games. They went 3-2-2 in those first seven games on their way to the 6-2-2 start. Better record against stiffer competition, better overall numbers – it would be hard to find fault with that.

How do these comparisons work when we go to the individual level? Let’s look at the forwards first.


Alex Ovechkin

What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, Ovechkin was burdened with family concerns, and it was reflected in his start. Compare the numbers he put up last year with his start this year…

He is on a pace to set career records in goals (74), assists (66), points (140), plus/minus (+66), game-winning goals (16) and shots (549). But here is your odd Ovechkin number – two. He has two game-winning goals thus far this season. Last year, he didn’t record his second game-winner until December 16th. He still finished tied for third (10) for the season. This is a number worth following as much as his total goals. No player has had more than 15 game-winning goals since Michel Goulet in 1983-1984.


Brendan Morrison

Another player who can point to “health” as the word that most influences the comparison of his first ten-game performance this year with that of last year…

Last year, Morrison was coming off a season in which he missed 53 games, and it showed in a slow start. This year, he’s on a pace (66 points) to register his biggest points year since setting his career high in 2002-2003 (71).


Matt Bradley

Is Matt Bradley entering another phase of his career? Consider the comparison of last year’s first ten games to this year’s…

Including playoffs, Bradley has five goals in his last 20 games. That might not sound like much, but that is a pace of 21 goals over an 82-game season. Bradley has never had as many as 10 goals in a single regular season. Here is your Bradley number – one. And that’s a two-fer. He has one fighting major this season, a number than might seem low to Caps fans, given that enforcer Donald Brashear is gone, and the rough stuff is being handled by committee. The other part of this is that Bradley has only one minor penalty in eight games. He had only seven in 81 games last year.


Boyd Gordon

Gordon has had a bit of a penalty problem to start this season. But it isn’t any different, in terms of minutes, than last year…

What makes this year’s minutes stand out is that of the four minors Gordon has taken, three of them have come in the third period, all of those in the last half of the period, and two of them resulted in power play goals for the opponents, one the game-tying goal by Scott Hartnell in a 6-5 overtime loss to Philadelphia, the other the game-winning goal by Marian Gaborik in a 4-3 loss to the Rangers.


Eric Fehr

The comparison between last year’s first ten games and this years is noteworthy for not being noteworthy…

Fehr has battled injury throughout the professional phase of his career, and this year is no exception as he comes off surgery on both shoulders in the off season. He’s working his way back in, having registered fewer than ten minutes of ice time in four of the six games in which he’s played. That’s not a lot different from last year, when he played in fewer than ten minutes in each of the three games he played in out of the first ten.


Chris Clark

The numbers don’t look altogether different between last year and this…

Except for this. Last year, Clark averaged about 13 and a half minutes of ice time in his first ten games. This year, he has topped that amount of ice time only once, his last time out against the Islanders. What is perhaps odd here is that Clark is averaging only five seconds of penalty killing time per game. But it isn’t odd in the context of the last few years. In his first two years with the Caps, Clark averaged 3:34 and 2:34 of penalty killing time per game. In his last three (including this), he’s averaged 25 seconds, three seconds, and this year five seconds.


Nicklas Backstrom

Backstrom is off to a better start than last year…

In fact, he’s off to a better start than his first two years, combined (0-9-9, minus-3). Here is the odd number for Backstrom – 14. He didn’t register his first even strength point until Game 14 last year. He had his first even strength point in Game 1 this year. If he improves his performance as the season goes on as he has done in each of his first two years, Backstrom could have a monster season. But where he’s struggling is in the faceoff circle. Here’s another Backstrom number – 87. That is his rank among faceoff leaders in the NHL on his 40.8 winning percentage. The irony there is that a player who wears that number has made himself into a very good faceoff man (Sidney Crosby ranks 8th in the league). Hopefully, Backstrom – only in his third season – can follow suit.


Keith Aucoin

Aucoin played in a dozen games for the Caps last year, none of them in the first ten-game segment. But he has dressed for four games so far this year with a goal and an assist for his trouble. He’s managed to make a contribution with limited ice time – he hasn’t been on the ice for ten minutes in a game yet. Oddly enough, he’s tied for tenth in total scoring for the Caps so far.


Brooks Laich

18-37-53-?? That’s been the points progression for Laich the past three seasons. With nine points in ten games, he’s on a pace to top 70 points. That might not be a likely scenario, but he is off to a better start this year than last…

Laich has already had three multi-point games this year (he had 11 last year). With seven in his last 31 games last year, that’s 10 in 41 games. For a player who does not post a lot of assists (Backstrom, for example, has nine multi-assist games in his last 41), Laich seems to get his points in bunches.


Mike Knuble

Knuble has been shooting in a bit of bad luck with two goals in ten games so far. Compare that and his other numbers with last year’s production with Philadelphia…



He’s managed to get points though, largely by doing what he was brought in to do, create traffic. His two goals were pretty much signature Knuble – they were scored from a total of 24 feet from the net. What he has been that folks might not have expected is a minutes eater in all situations – fifth in total ice time per game among forwards, fifth in power play ice time, sixth in penalty killing time, fourth at even strength.


Alexander Semin

Semin got out to a fast start this year that was reminiscent of the start he had last year…

However, upon being moved off the Ovechkin line, his scoring tailed a bit, then he came down with an illness that has kept him out of the last two games. It’s worth noting that he had 16 shots on goal in his first four games (5-4-9), but only 13 – six of them in one game against the Sharks – in his last four (1-0-1). If there is a difference between last year and this so far, it is that special teams scoring. While Semin was 4-5-9 on special teams through ten games last year (including those two shorthanded assists), he is 2-2-4 so far this year.


Alexandre Giroux

Giroux played in a dozen games for the Caps last year, none in the first ten. He’s been up for two games so far this year while Semin get’s back to health. If there is a number that sticks out in two games so far, it is that – two. His ice time has been sparse (less than 15 minutes total in two games), but he has only two shots on goal (four attempts). He does have four hits, though (all against the Islanders in the last game).


Boyd Kane

Kane played in only one game for the Caps last year, again not in any of the first ten. He has dressed for three games thus far, and what might be odd about his brief stay so far is that he’s averaged about a minute more in ice time a game than has Giroux. Small sample size, different roles, etc., etc. We just thought we’d throw that out there.


David Steckel

We had Steckel scoring 12 goals this year in our season previews of players. That’s not looking too good at the moment and is behind his pace last year…

But those two goals happened to be his being the beneficiary of the two shorthanded assists supplied by Alexander Semin. What Steckel did well last year and continues to do well this year is take draws. He is seventh in the league in faceoffs so far, up to 60.6 percent on the winning side from 57.9 percent at the end of last year. It’s worth noting that the 60.6 percent (94 of 155) is up from 54.8 percent in the first ten games of last year (51 of 93).


Quintin Laing

Laing skated only once last season, not among the first ten games. For his trouble, he ended the evening with a lacerated spleen. His experience this year has been more pleasant and productive. He hasn’t yet recorded a point, but he does lead all wingers in penalty killing time. What might be odd about his first ten games is that he ranks only fourth among forwards in blocked shots, a skill for for which Laing has been known in his career to date.

We'll get around to the defense and the goaltenders shortly.

Beware the Power of the Mohawk

It might not have worked for Mike Green in last year's playoffs. Maybe it will work for Nick Swisher of the Yankees as they try to close out the Angels...

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Islanders 2 (OT)

Tonight’s menu special…

Bruce Boudreau was in a tinkering mood tonight, desperately trying to find a wing – any wing – who could make a difference skating with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Mike Knuble, Brooks Laich, Eric Fehr, Matt Bradley (seriously), Peter Bondra, Alan Haworth, Brian Bellows, Esa Tikkanen… ok, those last few weren’t in the lineup, but if they were, they’d have gotten a shift or two on the top line.

And in the end, it was a runt of the litter, so to speak, who finally made a difference. Keith Aucoin allowed the Caps to salvage at least a point in tonight’s game against the Islanders when he banked a shot off the Islanders’ Josh Bailey, who went to a knee trying to block a centering pass, and behind Islanders goalie Dwayne Roloson, who frankly deserved better than he ultimately got. Why? Because Brooks Laich did what the Caps failed miserably at all night – he drove to the net. In doing so, he gave himself a chance to tip a pass from Mike Green through Roloson 60 seconds into the extra session, and the Caps escaped from Long Island with the second standings point in a 3-2 overtime win.

It would be hard to find a win in the last decade that the Caps deserved less. Let’s look at a few key numbers…


See a pattern? The Islanders outworked the Caps all over the ice. It was the sort of effort that back in 2005-2006 we might have said did honor to the Caps. The Islanders might take little solace from the sentiment, but they should be proud of that effort.

The Caps, on the other hand, should not be. Against a team that had not won a game in regulation since April 4th, dating back to last season (two wins in regulation in their last 20 games dating back to last season), the Caps didn’t even mail in their first 50 minutes. That would have required an effort to get to the mail box. Here are some other examples of the exasperating play…

- Three different Islanders won ten or more faceoffs. Nicklas Backstrom lost 18 draws by himself, almost as many as the Caps won in total (20). The Caps were eight up and 21 down in the offensive zone… hard to establish any offensive pressure when you don’t have the puck.

- This one is almost unbelievable… the Caps won one… ONE… faceoff in the defensive zone all night. They lost 15.

- Alexandre Giroux led the Caps in hits (four). Giroux isn’t up here to hit, he’s up here to score… he had one shot attempt (blocked) in nine minutes of play.

- Radek Martinek had as many blocked shots (seven) as the entire Caps lineup.

- Alex Ovechkin went more than 34 minutes before registering his first shot on goal.

- The Caps yielded a shorthanded goal for the second consecutive game -- the second by a defenseman -- which makes the score Opponents 2 – Caps 0 on the Caps’ power play the last two games.

Why was Boudreau searching for a wing – any wing – to do something on the top line? Eric Fehr… no shots on goal. Chris Clark… no shots on goal. Giroux… no shots on goal. Mike Knuble… one shot on goal. Aucoin scored on his only shot on goal.

Lost in all of this is that the Caps played a pretty good game from the blue line back. The Caps gave up a shorthanded goal (note to Caps..."backchecking" is not a penalty) and a goal off a behind-the-back deflection that might go in one time in a hundred when you’re in practice. We will not fault Shaone Morrisonn on that one… he had inside position on Jeff Tambellini. Maybe he could have put more of a body on him, but Morrisonn did not play that one badly. All of the defensemen played the games they have to play, more or less. Mike Green might have been guilty of the occasional hold-the-puck-a-few-seconds-too-long in rushing up ice. Milan Jurcina might have done better getting pucks through from the point. But all in all, the defense played a solid game.

Green had an especially interesting game. He was the recipient of a knee-on-knee hit by Nate Thompson a little more than 13 minutes into the second period. He had four shot attempts after that (including a goal) and assisted on the Laich winner. Sometimes Green can look like he’s skating in another world, but the incident seemed to refocus his attention on the ice.

Jose Theodore deserved a star in this one. He didn’t have much in the way of highlight saves, but on a night when the team in front of him – especially the forwards – was struggling, he kept the Caps close with solid, consistent, well-positioned netminding. Good Jose was on display tonight. If Bad Jose had showed up, the Isles might have pulled away in the third with a soft goal or two.

The Islanders were the better team tonight by miles. It is only that the Caps have so much more talent that they were able to muster a decent finish to this one. There will be better nights for the Islanders, although those nights might be a couple of seasons (and lottery draft picks) away. For the Caps, maybe they were looking ahead to Tuesday night’s game against Philadelphia. Maybe there is a bug running around the Caps’ locker room that we’re not aware of that sapped the boys of some energy.

But whatever the reason, the Caps were lucky. Lucky that the Islanders couldn’t scare up a third goal when it was 2-0, lucky that the Islanders really don’t yet have the talent or the experience to put teams like the Caps away when they have such teams down, lucky that they finally found a wing who could make a difference and that he wasn’t in Hershey playing against Binghamton tonight (the Bears could have used him, too – they were roughed up by the Senators, 5-2).

It’s a win, and a win is a win is a win. But this one was too ugly, even for Kanoobie.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, October 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

That’s right, we’re on the air for this, the back half of the mini-road trip the Caps are on this week. And tonight, the Caps visit Long Island to take on the New York Islanders, a team that has been out to sea for quite a while…

“So let me get one thing straight here… we have a hockey team here, and now they suck?”

And you are…

“Chuck… Chuck Noland. I’ve been on an island of my own for a while…”

Really… I thought they rescued you.

“Are you serious? I was a paunchy middle aged guy when I left, and I was a buff long haired god when they ‘found me.’ I was living on coconut milk and crabs...you do the math.”



Makes sense… but yeah, the Islanders suck these days. They haven’t won more than 40 games but once in any season since they won 50 in 1983-1984. But they’ve lost more than 40 games in regulation time in seven of the last 13 years. I take it you haven’t been to a game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Colisseum lately.

“Actually, I have, but I had to leave in the first period.”

Really?

“Yeah… bad memories.”

I don’t follow…

“I spent so much time alone on an uncharted island, I couldn’t bear being alone in an ice rink.”

I can understand that. But the Islanders have some good young players and a sprinkling of vets. They might bear watching. There are John Tavares and Kyle Okposo, who could be solid 15-year pros…

“15 years… hah!”

And there are a couple of solid pros in net… Martin Biron and Dwayne Roloson…

“No DiPietro?”

Nope… he’s hurt.

“RICKY-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y!!!”

It doesn’t sound quite the same was shouting for “Wilson,” but goaltender Ricky DiPietro is still out of the lineup for the Isles. He did, however, get on the ice for a few minutes last week. Seeing as how he played in only five games last year, those 15 minutes last Monday have to be something of a victory.

And victories have been hard to come by for the Islanders lately. They’ve gone from 40 wins three years ago to 35 to 26 last year. With their 1-4-3 record so far, they are on a pace for ten wins this season. Only the Minnesota Wild and the Toronto Maple Leafs have fewer points, and only the Maple Leafs have fewer wins (none). The Islanders can be said to be where the Caps were in 2005-2006 – ghastly with the promise to be good. But for now, that ghastly part certainly fits…

Being bottom-five in almost every measure makes for the sort of opponent that the Caps should handle easily. But, dear reader, we know better, don’t we? Actually, the Islanders have been a tough team to earn points against for the Caps. Since the lockout, the Islanders are 9-4-3 against the Caps, and they are 5-1-2 in the tomb-like confines of NVMC. This will not be a walk-over.

If we asked the question, “who is the Islanders’ leading scorer?,” and you answered, “John Tavares,” well, you’d be wrong. “Kyle Okposo” would be the wrong answer, too. How far would you go down the Islanders’ roster before you settled on “Matt Moulson.” No, not “Pat Paulsen,” who ran for President half a dozen times – Matt Moulsen.

Moulsen – a 9th round draft pick by Pittsburgh in 2003 – leads the Islanders with five goals and eight points. He has already tied a career high in goals (set with the Kings in 2007-2008), and with his next point will tie a career high in that category. He had a four-game goal scoring streak stopped against the Canadiens in his last game, a 5-1 loss to Montreal on Thursday.

Moulsen’s exploits aside, this team’s future is really in the hands of a trio of youngsters—John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, and Josh Bailey. Top-ten picks all, none is older than 21. The flip side of that is that none have played more than an NHL season’s worth of games, yet, either (Okposo has 82 on his resume). Okposo has 50 points in his first 82 games of experience, a suggestion that better things are on the way. Tavares has seven points (3-4-7) in his first eight NHL games, fresh off of his selection as the first overall pick last June. Bailey has gotten off to a bit of a slow start (1-1-2), but he’s one of the players the Islanders are counting on to make the team strong down the middle for years to come.

At the other end of the prospect spectrum is a player the Islanders are taking a chance on, despite a very disappointing start to his professional career. Rob Schremp is better known for trick shots than for making shots when they count. Selected 25th overall by Edmonton in the 2004 draft, he played in only seven games across three seasons for the Oilers. The Islanders plucked him off waivers just before the start of the season. After registering only one assist in his first five games, while averaging more than 14 minutes a game, he was held to just over six minutes of ice time in Thursday’s loss to Montreal.

The Islanders are a young team – 13 of the 21 skaters who have dressed so far this season are 25 or younger. But they do have greybeards, too. Doug Weight has played almost 1,200 games with six different teams. Once a reliable 20-goal, 70-point player (he topped those totals in each full season he played from 1993-1994 through 2000-2001), he is in the winter of his career, more a mentor for the young forwards than a player to be counted on to bear heavy minutes (although he is fourth in ice time among forwards) or a large scoring workload. He has played in only five games this year, registering a pair of assists. He missed Thursday’s game against Montreal due to illness. He is day-to-day.

The other greybeard of note is Brendan Witt, who does not seem to be aging gracefully. Witt, never a big producer offensively on the blue line (he’s never had more than three goals or 14 points in a season), is the embodiment of a “defensive defenseman.” Well, a defensive defenseman who is minus-43 in his last 73 games can be said to be “struggling.” He does not have a “plus”” game this year, and had only 11 such games in the 65 games he played last year. Last year, he was minus-5 in four games against the Caps.

In goal, it’s a case of “six o’ one, half a dozen of the other.” Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron have split the available time reasonably equally with similar results. Roloson is 1-1-2, 3.48, .893; while Biron is 0-3-1, 3.57, .889. Coach Scott Gordon has alternated the two faithfully so far, and if he holds to that pattern, Roloson will get the start against the Caps tonight. That’s probably a good thing for the Islanders. Roloson has not lost a game in regulation to Washington since the 2001-2002 season. He is 5-1-1 against the Caps starting with that season, 1.71, .926 and one shutout. Here is the odd thing about that record, though. In those seven games Roloson has faced fewer than 20 shots four times, going 3-1-0 in the process. We’d bet a shiny nickel that he’ll see more than 20 shots tonight… perhaps that many in the first period.

The Islanders have not won a game in regulation thus far this season. Their lone win was in a Gimmick against Carolina last Wednesday. To that, add the fact that Alex Ovechkin is 12-5-17 in 11 career games against the Islanders (6-2-8 in four games last year), and this could spell a long night for the home team. But this is a team that at some point is going to turn a corner. They do have young talent, and it is a matter of time and experience for that talent to start turning potential into wins. If the Caps merely look at the Islanders’ record to date and think that they need only show up to get a win, it will be an unpleasant evening.

We’re betting they do more than show up…

Caps 6 – Islanders 3

Support

Semyon Varlamov has yet to lose a regular season game in regulation thus far in his young career (8-0-1). But he sure has had some adventures along the way. In five of his last seven regular season appearances (including a no-decision) he has allowed at least four goals.

How does he do that, you ask?

Well, it seems he might be one of those guys who resemble that occasional major league pitcher who wins a ton of games, but can't get anyone out doing it. For example, in 2006, Randy Johnson won 17 games for the New York Yankees, tying for fourth in all the major leagues in wins that season. But he had a ghastly ERA of 5.00 in doing it. He had a ton of run-support. Some guys get it.

Some goalies might get goal support, too. In his nine decisions as an NHL goaltender, Varlamov has been the beneficiary of 36 goals scored by the Caps (4.00/game). That doesn't include the four goals the Caps scored in a game this season in which Varlamov was pulled after giving up four goals of his own (a 6-5 overtime loss to the Flyers in which he did not figure in the decision).

Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good.

Still, we'd rather he be good.

Down the Middle

A quote from an article in yesterday's Washington Post feature on Nicklas Backstrom got us to thinking. Here is the quote...

"Through the first eight games of his third season, Backstrom has two goals and nine assists -- four on Ovechkin goals -- and is on pace to notch a career-high 112 points to become only the second Capitals center to reach the 100-point plateau. (Dennis Maruk notched 136 in 1981-82.)"

First it reminded us that the Caps haven't ever really had much in the way of high-end scoring out of the center position in their history. Second, it reminded us of that old saying about success in team sports that you have to be "strong down the middle."

Well, do you?

In terms of scoring out of the center position in hockey, perhaps not as much as you'd think. Looking back at 41 seasons since the original expansion, in 16 of those seasons at least one of the centers on the Stanley Cup champion had at least 100 points. In six other seasons, the Cup winner had a 90-point or better center. Here is the breakdown...

(source: hockey-reference.com)

For some reason, we thought that the champions would be represented by more 100-point centers. Just something to think about on a cloudy Friday.

NOR-RIS...NOR-RIS...NOR-RIS...

In only five games, no less.

Take THAT, Schultz haters.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Thrashers 4

Back in those dark days of 2005-2006 and 2006-2007, there were nights when the Capitals lost, and fans, coaches, and players alike yet could say that it felt like a win. Such was the relationship between expectations (not much) and results (occasionally playing elite teams close).

Well, that was then. Now, the relationship of expectations to results has changed. Fans, players, and coaches expect big things from this team, and they expect that they will win on most nights and in dominating fashion against many of those opponents.

That is why last night’s 5-4 win over the Atlanta Thrashers has an odd taste to it. Not bitter, perhaps, for a win is still a win. But… off. Like milk that is about to spoil.

Things were still fresh when the Caps ran out to a 5-2 lead not 32 minutes into the 60 minute game after Chris Clark netted his first goal in a regular season game since New Year’s Day last season, the last of three goals scored in an 88-second span in the third period.

Then, the milk started to turn.

The Caps had one more shot in the last eight minutes of the second period, which served as something of a momentum-turning period in the game. While Atlanta was unable to carve into the Caps’ lead, they did stop the bleeding going into the second intermission.

The Caps still had an opportunity to regain that momentum when Marty Reasoner took an interference penalty early in the third period. But instead of driving the stake into the Thrashers – the Caps would finish the night 0-for-7 on the power play – Zach Bogosian would give the Thrashers some life by circling into the Capitals’ zone shorthanded and throwing the puck past Mike Knuble’s outstretched stick and Semyon Varlamov’s blocker on the far side (one Varlamov surely would want back) to get the Thrashers within two goals.

And it wasn’t as if the Caps didn’t have more chances to end the competitive portion of the evening after that. Maxim Afinogenov and Pavel Kubina took penalties 52 seconds apart later in the third period to give the Caps 1:08 of a two man advantage. The Caps managed four shots on the 5-on-3, but the power play ended when Mike Knuble took a slashing penalty in the offensive zone (ugh…). That was followed by a Jeff Schultz penalty almost two minutes after that. While Atlanta did not score on the brief 5-on-3, they did manage to close within one three seconds after the Knuble penalty expired to make it a one-goal game with 39 seconds left.

It then got equal parts ugly and interesting moments later when Alex Ovechkin was guilty of a borderline slew-footing of Rich Peverley. Atlanta managed three shots on goal in the last 30 seconds, but none of them got past Varlamov. The Caps escaped with a win… but it didn’t feel like one.

Other stuff…

- Alex Ovechkin had no points. That’s news. It was only the second time this season he was held without a point. However, it wasn’t that unusual, given the setting. He was held without a point in two of the three games in Atlanta last year and has had only one goal in his last seven appearances there (including none last night).

- Four players had their first goals of the season last night – Eric Fehr, Alexandre Giroux, Chris Clark, and Jeff Schultz. Add to that Matt Bradley scoring his third goal of the year, and it was an odd night for the top two lines.

- How odd?... No points. (edit: OK, one point... Fehr's goal, since he skated on Morrison's line)

- But Semyon Varlamov recorded his first NHL point on Schultz’ goal.

- Schultz was 1-2-3, plus-3. It was his biggest point night of his career, although the one he’ll be talking about when he’s bouncing his grandson off his knee years from now is the one where blasted a 175-foot laser past Thrasher goalie Ondrej Pavelec. It was a laser, I tell ya (except for the half dozen bounces it took on the way in).

- 14 of 18 skaters finished on the plus side of the ledger, so we might be thankful for some sort of balance.

- Will Ovechkin be suspended? Almost certainly not. But he might find his wallet a bit lighter.

- Five hits? Five? None by Ovechkin? Pretty tame night, all things considered (like, this being a division “rival” and all)

- Two giveaways is the sort of number you’d like to see more of, but was that responsibility with the puck or official scoring quirks?

- Mike Green has eight giveaways this year – none last night. That might be tied for 17th among all NHL defensemen, but that’s not a bad number for a guy who has the puck on his stick as much as Green, especially since he’s tied for seventh in takeaways by defensemen (and no, he didn’t have any of those last night, either).

- Eight power plays allowed is way too much, especially against a team that can score like Atlanta. The Caps took four penalties in the last 10:23 of the game. If you want an example of losing focus and mailing it in for the last part of the game (the Caps were up 5-3 when the parade to the box started), well, there you go.

- Varlamov did not have a good game. On the first Thrasher goal – by Maxim Afinogenov (see…he was a torment for the Caps) – Varlamov did not look ready for the quick move off the faceoff. Bogosian’s goal should never have made it through on the long side. We think he has to get a pass for the Kovalchuk goal, when Kovalchuk stormed down the slot with no Cap in sight to slam home a rebound, and on the last goal, he had a great view of Nik Antropov’s backside as the puck was passing through.

Two points is two points, and the Caps have won three in a row. But the performances against Nashville and Atlanta in the last two were hardly sharp. The Islanders are next, and if the Caps want to tempt fate with another 40 minute performance, they do so at the peril of sustaining an embarrassing loss. Maybe it’s a bit of a let down after facing so many top teams right out of the gate. But whatever the reason, the Caps do not yet have the look of a team firing on all cylinders for 60 minutes.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, October 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Thursday, and the Caps have hit the road. But while the boys have been packing for a trip to Atlanta for this evening’s game, the cousins paid us a visit…

Fearless… Cheerless… long time no see.

“Yeah, well, guess our high-falutin’ cousin was too big to have us over after he got us to slam some words together for his preseason prognostications…”

“Right you are ‘cuz. Of course, us drinkin’ all his beer and cloggin’ up his terlet probably didn’t help any.”

All is forgiven boys… but I take it y’all have been busy the last month.

“Absolutely. I got this new calculator, and I’ve been playing with some numbers."

“Can ya git porn on that thing?”

“Hush up… now here’s one. Mikael Samuelson is second in the league right now with 4.75 shots per game. If he keeps doing that for the rest of the season, he’ll end up with 390 shots. He’ll also end up 235 shots behind Alex Ovechkin, who is on a pace for 625 shots."

Pretty impressive.

“Thanks… Here’s another. Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby have eight goals between them. Alex Ovechkin has nine.”

“Ya didn’t need no calculator for that, cuz’.”

“No, but you’d need one, ya sawed off, brainless tw—“

OK, boys. What else do you have, Fearless?

“Joe Thornton has 12 assists. If he keeps that pace up, he’ll finish with 109. But that would only get him into the top-ten single season best… barely. He’d be tied for tenth with Wayne Gretzky, who did it twice. But he would be the only center not named Gretzky or Lemieux to get over a hundred.”

“Bet ya had to do a logarolling to come up with that.”

“’Logarithm’… and no, I didn’t.”

Anything else on the Caps?

“Well, the Caps have three players on a pace for at least 100 points – Alex Ovechkin (92-72-164), Nicklas Backstrom (21-92-113), and Alexander Semin (62-41-103). The last time three players on the same team went over 100 points was 1995-1996.”

And?

“Yeah, it was Pittsburgh… Mario Lemieux (69-92-161), Jaromir Jagr (62-87-149), and Ron Francis (27-92-119)…”

“Wait… did you say Jagr had 62 goals with the Penguins?...”

“That’s right.”

“In one year?”

“Yup.”

“An 82-game year?”

“Uh-huh…”

“And how many did he have here?”

Dit-dit-dit…dit-dit…dit-dit-dit-dit…dit

“…83 in 190 games… hey HEY HEY!!! GIMME BACK THAT CALCULATOR!!!”

—SMASH!!!—

Guess Cheerless is still bitter over the Jagr era here in DC. Meanwhile, the Caps visit the Thrashers, and it should be a rip-roaring end to ender. The Thrashers are in the midst of a franchise-tying-best start to their season at 4-1-1. It’s not as if they’re doing this with smoke and mirrors, either. The Thrashers’ opponents, exclusive of games played against the Thrashers, are 19-13-4 so far this season, and only one – Montreal – has a sub-.500 record. The Thrashers’ numbers are equally impressive (before last night's games)…



One number from that table above screams off the page – 2.33. That is the goals allowed per game so far by Atlanta, good for sixth lowest in the league and more than a goal a game (1.07) better than their comparable number at the end of the 2008-2009 season.

The reason for that might be an injury. Kari Lehtonen – he of the considerable potential and underwhelming performance in his career to date – had off-season back surgery. He has not returned, and the team doesn’t seem to miss him (or have much intention to reinstate him for the time being).

And that has meant giving Ondrej Pavelec a shot. Pavelec is another one of those guys with “potential” stenciled onto his resume, although he didn’t arrive with nearly the fanfare that accompanied Lehtonen, who was the second overall pick in 2002. He had been plagued by his own bouts of inconsistency as he climbed the Thrashers organizational ladder. He was 33-16-3 (2.77, .911, and two shutouts) in leading the Chicago Wolves to a Calder Cup. The following year he split time between Atlanta (3-7-0, 3.61, .880) and Chicago (18-20-2, 2.58, .910), when he seemed to take a step backward.

But this year, he is off to a hot start – 3-1-1, 2.37, .929. On a team that plays a pressing offensive style similar to Washington (with whom Atlanta is tied in goals scored per game), those are rather impressive numbers.

On the other side of the ledger, this would be the place where we would extol the virtues of the face of the franchise – Ilya Kovalchuk. Well, OK, he has seven goals to lead the club – no surprise there. And he is tied for the team lead in points with eight. But it is that fellow with whom he is tied – Rich Peverley – who is something of a surprise. Peverley, who was claimed on waivers from Nashville last January, has averaged almost a point a game (17-26-43 in 45 games) since joining the Thrashers. What’s more, in those 45 games he has seven game-winning goals, more than Kovalchuk has had in the past two full seasons with Atlanta (six). He will be one to watch. Last year in four games against the Capitals, Peverley was 2-2-4, plus-1.

After the star Kovalchuk, and the unsung Peverley (well, maybe a little “sung”…he just signed a multi-year extension with the Thrashers), the watch-word for Atlanta is, “balance”… sort of. No Thrasher has more than eight points, but 18 skaters have at least one. What that means is that skaters seem to take turns feeding Kovalchuk and Peverley, who have accounted for 11 of Atlanta’s 21 goals.

Seven of those 18 skaters have at least four points. Three of those players are among the six newcomers who skated in the Thrashers’ last game who were not on the ice in Atlanta’s last game of the 2008-2009 season. Evander Kane leads that group with 2-2-4, making his debut in the NHL after being selected fourth overall in last June’s entry draft.

Pavel Kubina, who is no stranger to Caps fans after having spent eight seasons with Tampa Bay, is another of the newcomers with four points (all assists) coming into this game. In 49 games against the Caps in his career, he is 3-16-19. He opened the season with an assist in each of the first four games, but he has been held off the score sheet in the last two.

Nik Antropov is new to the Thrashers, too, having spent last year split between Toronto and the New York Rangers. He has also posted four assists, two of which came in a 4-2 win over Buffalo last Saturday. In 25 career games against Washington, he is 7-10-17.

And contrary to the thought that all Russians end up in Washington, Atlanta signed Maxim Afinogenov to a one-year, $800,000 contract on the eve of the new season after skating with the club on a pro tryout and fighting an illness. He has a goal and two assists in six games thus far, but he is also a team-worst minus-4. Last year, he had a total of six goals on the season. Two came against Atlanta, two against Washington. Seeing as how he is now skating with the Thrashers, the possibility of his being a source of torment for the Caps can’t be neglected.

So here we are eight games in, and it is the Atlanta Thrashers – a team that finished last year 13th in the Eastern Conference – that is challenging the Caps for the division lead. They did play the Caps tough, though, winning two of the three games at home against the Caps last season and outscoring Washington in those three games by a 16-11 margin.

If you were to look at the principals in this divisional matchup – Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk – it would suggest that this was going to be a mad dash up and down the ice to see which Russian could top the other. Ovechkin is 23-26-49 in 30 career games against Atlanta, while Kovalchuk is 22-28-50 in 42 career games against Washington. And chances are, each will be keeping tabs on where the other is on the ice. But Washington is more than Ovechkin (with two other players – Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin – on a pace to top 100 points), while the Thrashers are more than Kovalchuk (tied with the Caps in goals-per-game using a balanced, pressing attack).

It will be a high scoring game, but the Caps have too many weapons and will put the Thrashers in their place…

Caps 6 – Thrashers 4

Do Special Teams Make Teams Special?

Well, do they?

Well, yes, if you’re defining “special” as a playoff team. Long ago, there was something called a “misery index.” It was the simple addition of inflation and interest rates, a simple indicator of how good or how bad things were going in our economy. Well, we can compute a similar “ecstasy index” for hockey – the addition of power play and penalty killing success rates – to indicate whether a team is doing well or poorly. And the results are, even at this early stage of the season, illuminating, if not surprising:



Conveniently, an ecstasy index value of “100.0” seems to be the threshold dividing good from bad, and as it turns out, playoff contender from playoff pretender. Sixteen of the 30 NHL teams have values greater than 100.0, and of this number 12 are currently in the top eight of their respective conferences (yellow in the table above for Eastern Conference teams, teal for Western Conference teams) – 12 of the top 14, in fact.

With respect to the Capitals, history can be a guide here...

The club has reached the playoffs 20 times in its history, and in 15 of those instances, it had an ecstasy index value of at least 100.0. The lowest value that the Caps have ever had entering the playoffs was 97.8 in the 1989-1990 season. In 14 seasons the Caps failed to make the playoffs, only five times did they top the 100.0 value on the index, 101.7 being the best they could muster among those seasons, that in 1998-1999.

As we hinted above, there is nothing surprising in this. Teams that can take advantage of power plays and deny opponents success when they are at a disadvantage do better than teams that fail in these situations. But what it speaks to specifically with respect to the Capitals is this. We know that the power play is good. It’s 21.6 percent success rate (14th in the league) is probably a bit of a disappointment in this early going. It would seem likely that it will get better. But the other side of the index bears watching. The 84.6 percent penalty killing rate is perhaps a pleasant surprise (the Caps finished 17th last year at 80.6 percent).

A team needs to have both sides of this equation working in order to be successful. It is something we’ll try to return to from time to time as the season wears on.

Sharing the Burden and the Wealth

“More weight.”

Those are, as legend has it, the dying words of Giles Corey, a farmer accused of witchcraft during the period of the Salem Witch Trials in 1692. Corey, who refused to submit himself to trial, was pressed to death under heavy stones, the only person ever executed in American history in such a fashion under court order.

Why the history lesson? Because right now, there is something of a weight being applied to the broad shoulders of Alex Ovechkin. Through eight games this season, the Capitals have scored 28 goals. Ovechkin has nine of that number and has assisted on seven others. Having a hand in 16 of the Capitals’ 28 goals (57.1 percent) is a rather prodigious accomplishment, even at this early stage of the season.

But it’s more than that. It’s as much Ovechkin’s feet as his hands in the goals, as in, having his feet on the ice. Of the other 12 goals scored by the Caps so far, Ovechkin has been on the ice for five of them (three of them power play goals), meaning he’s been on the ice for 21 of the Caps 28 goals. That effect ripples through the roster:

- Nicklas Backstrom had two goals and eight assists in his first six games, during which he centered Ovechkin. He has one assist in two games with those two having been split up (he was scoreless in his last two games on Ovechkin’s line).

- Alexander Semin was 5-4-9 in his first four games of the season, skating primarily on the right side opposite Ovechkin. He is 1-0-1 since those two have been split up. It’s worth noting that of the five goals scored when Ovechkin was on the ice, but did not figure in the scoring for, Semin has three of those goals.

- Brooks Laich has seven points so far (3-4-7). Two of those goals are power play goals, both of which (not surprisingly, given the power play ice time he logs) were with Ovechkin on the ice.

- Mike Knuble has five assists in eight games. That is a 51-assist pace that would obliterate his career best (31, with the Flyers in 2005-2006). All five have come in his last three games, and all three have come with Ovechkin – now his new linemate – on the ice. Four of them have come on Ovechkin goals.

- Let’s leave power play scoring out of this. Given that Ovechkin logs so much power play time (his 6:24 average power play ice time leads the team and is third in the league), he’s going to be on the ice for just about any scoring the Caps record – he has five points (1-4-5) and has been on the ice for all eight power play goals scored by the Caps. What about even strength? The Caps have 20 even strength goals this year, of which Ovechkin has eight. He also has three even strength assists, and he’s been on the ice for two other even strength goals. That’s 13 of 20 he’s been on his skates for.

There are a few things that one might draw from this. First, Ovechkin is good. This isn’t exactly news. The related theme is that it hardly seems to matter who skates on his line. Here is how the other forwards have done skating with Ovechkin (and otherwise):

Backstrom: 2-8-10 (0-1-1)
Morrison: 1-3-4 (2-1-3)
Semin: 5-4-9 (1-0-1)
Laich: 1-2-3 (2-2-4)
Knuble: 2-5-7 (0-0-0)

Knuble clearly has some early chemistry with Ovechkin, if only by association (he has assists on each of Ovechkin’s last four goals). Backstrom certainly does. At first blush, this might suggest an Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble top line. But this would raise the question of how productive a line of Laich-Morrison-Semin might be over time. It is perhaps one of those questions a coach doesn’t mind having to ponder, his having such an abundance of offensive riches to pick from.

But it does have that dark side. Ovechkin has been the constant in the offense so far. It seems that no matter which forward is put on his line, he and they produce, often in tandem. But that is a lot of weight for one line (that on which Ovechkin skates) to bear over 82 games. The second line has to produce (even if it means chipping away at the margins of first line numbers), and someone – anyone – other than Matt Bradley (two goals) has to pot the occasional puck from among the third and fourth lines. And while we’re at it, Mike Green is the only defenseman with a goal, too.

The Caps have the talent to achieve the necessary balance on offense -- to share the burden and the wealth. Two other forwards averaging better than a point a game and three others a point short of that threshold point to that talent. That is a fact that has been overshadowed by the fast start by Ovechkin, who by virtue of his performance and those of the line mates he happens to be skating with, has to be the early leader in the Hart Trophy race. But while he might be, himself, accused of occasional witchcraft on the ice, “more weight” on Ovechkin and, by extension, the rest of the first line – whatever its makeup – is not a long term prescription for success.

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Predators 2 (OT/Gimmick)

It’s not how, it’s how many.

We’ll remember that for the rest of the weekend, knowing that despite 20 minutes of hell followed by 45 minutes of yawn, followed by a Gimmick, the Caps escaped with the extra point this evening, beating the Nashville Predators in a Bettman Special, 3-2.

Only one player for the Caps managed to find the back of the net tonight. It will hardly surprise anyone that the individual who did so was Alex Ovechkin, notching his eighth and ninth goals of the season, and scoring the only goal in the Gimmick (note to Caps fans… there is no hat trick in a Gimmick; enough with the hats).

It sure looked as if this one would be over early. In the first period, Ovechkin scored two goals, the Caps had one power play goal in two chances, the Predators failed (again) to score. Fans might be forgiven if they were limbering up their tossing arms for the hat trick goal that would surely come in the third period.

But then something happened.

The Caps decided they’d play grind it out hockey. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, and it really wasn’t a bad idea tonight. The Caps outshot the Predators 9-0 before Nashville got its first shot on Semyon Varlamov – at 10:32 into the period. You'd have to like that kind of trend.

But the two-goal lead is the most dangerous lead for a reason. Nashville halved the lead when Shea Weber stepped into a slap shot after Patric Hornqvist dropped him the puck. The biscuit sailed past Varlamov’s left ear and into the back of the net. There might be a goaltender who could have stopped that shot, but who that is doesn’t immediately come to mind.

Then, something happened that shouldn’t have. Nashville got a strange goal less than two minutes later. Jeff Schultz played the puck along the boards where it was picked off by J.P. Dumont. Dumont did his best “Ovechkin,” turning and throwing the puck at the net. It looked as if it might have clipped Brian Pothier on the way through, the puck perhaps altering direction just enough to sneak past Varlamov hugging – not tightly enough as it turned out – the right post.

After that is was a Predator sort of game – deliberate, zone to zone, tote that barge, lift that bale. 24 minutes (the last four of the second period, all 20 of the third) of rather boring hockey, which was very much to Nashville’s liking.

Overtime was a bit more interesting, but only a bit as the Caps registered the only shot on goal in the five minute extra frame. It was amazing that with the teams skating only four a side that the puck could still be blocked and pinballed about without ever reaching a goaltender. Again, that suited Nashville just fine, but truth be told, unless Weber was going to step into another one, the Predators might not have scored again until Thanksgiving.

So that left The Gimmick, and Alex Ovechkin, whose performance in games and The Gimmick is like the difference between the Mona Lisa and a portrait of Elvis on velvet, potted the only goal on an hellaciously sick move on Dan Ellis, who but for having stretched before the game might have found his groin somewhere in Adams Morgan after trying vainly to cover enough of the net to stop the shot.

It was two points, which is better than one, which is better than none. And if you’re keeping track of such things, the Caps are (after eight games) on a pace for 103 points. Complain if you like, but we’ll take 103 points, and we don’t care how they get them as far as style points go.

Other stuff…

- Wade Belak took a penalty at 3:08 of the first period. That isn’t noteworthy. This is – before the game reached four minutes, the Predators had two breakaways on Varlamov while killing the penalty. Coming within 15 seconds of one another, Varlamov first had to stick out his left pad to stop an attempt by Joel Ward, then had to stand his ground to knock down a wrister by Weber. For that alone, we’d have given Varlamov at least the second star. If Nashville scores there (what would have been only their second first period goal of the year), this is probably a different game.

- Ovechkin is on a pace for 92 goals. No, we don’t think he’ll score 92 goals. But we’re betting the odds of him doing it are a little bit shorter tonight than they might have been yesterday.

- David Steckel earned the hard hat tonight, and “earned” is precisely the verb of choice there. He was a man among boys (or at least younger men) with his work along the boards and in the circle (he won 14 of 25 draws). He was a monster on the penalty kill, using his stick oand body to good use in the 4:38 of shorthanded time he logged.

- Speaking of shorthanded time, there was Quintin Laing getting 5:08 for himself (more than 17 minutes total).

- All in all, the Caps looked to make very good use of their sticks in cutting off passing lanes, especially when Nashville tried to use the middle of the ice as a go-through zone.

- Francis Bouillon is going to need a few extra minutes in the whirlpool tonight… seven blocked shots, three of them shots by Alexander Semin.

- Eric Fehr and Keith Aucoin had one shift each in the third period; Chris Clark had two. The Caps went with three lines for pretty much the entire third period and overtime. Not a bad idea since the Caps don’t play again until next Thursday.

- We don’t say much about the referees in this space, but just what game was Chris Rooney looking at? The hooking call on Nicklas Backstrom in the third period didn’t look like a hook in real time, and it sure as hell didn’t look like any more of a hook in slow motion on the replay. Please, NHL… you can’t find a referee better than this guy somewhere? Anywhere?

- In the last two years combined in Philadelphia, Mike Knuble totaled 46 assists. He is on a pace for 51 this year.

- The Caps were 11 of 27 on draws in the offensive zone.

- Speaking of draws, you think it doesn’t matter who takes them? The Caps had 14 defensive zone draws. David Steckel took 11 of them and won seven.

- Nashville is an offense-starved team. How do we know this? Shea Weber led the Predators in shot attempts (eight) and tied for the lead in shots on goal (three). It’s a little like watching the Caps in the day Kevin Hatcher was leading the team in goals.

- Speaking of goals. Goals on the season… Nashville: 9 – Alex Ovechkin: 9

- Varlamov is now 7-0-1 in the regular season, career. This was the first time he participated in The Gimmick.

- Milan Jurcina is quietly putting together a string of solid games on the blue line. Tonight – four blocked shots to lead all players for the Caps. His three hits led the club, too.

- Oh, and we really liked that bit where Brendan Morrison just threw the puck into space, had it bounce off the boards, and skitter to the middle of the ice where Ovechkin could get it and break in on Dan Ellis with Teemo Laakso waving his stick at Ovechkin in pursuit while Ovechkin potted the goal. Just like you drew it up, right guys?... right?

Hey, folks… it was a win. Was it pretty? No. Were there any highlights that weren’t fluky goals? No. Will anyone remember this in March? No.

Because it’s not how, it’s how many.