A TWO-point night -- Game 19: Caps 4 - Buffalo 2

On October 27th, the Washington Capitals went to Carolina and shutout the Hurricanes, 3-0, in a game that many said was the best all around effort of the season. Tonight, the Caps hosted the Buffalo Sabres and but for a 48 second stretch in the second period might have had a better game.

Those 48 seconds in the second period were the time it took to close a 3-0 Caps lead to 3-2, and after the second Sabre goal it looked as if goalie Michal Neuvirth was shaken to his core. Another goal – one that seemed inevitable at that moment – might have cracked the Caps wide open. But Neuvirth gathered himself, and the Caps played a third period that prevented Buffalo from mounting much in the way of a sustained attack on the net, even though they did control the puck for stretches in the Caps’ zone. Alexander Semin took the final mystery out of the game with a goal in the dying seconds to give the Caps a 4-2 win over a plucky Buffalo team.

Stuff…

-- The game within a game in this one was the battle at either end of the ice, a tale of two goaltenders. At one end was Ryan Miller, who has seen all this before. His statistics in his first full season in Buffalo parallel those of Neuvirth in his first full season rather closely:

Miller: 48 games, 30-14-3, 2.60, .914, 1 shutout
Neuvirth: 16 games, 11-3-0 (projects to 33-9-0 for 48 games), 2.60, .910, 1 shutout

The difference in the two was that even on what was not one of his best nights, Miller displayed no panic. His movements were deliberate, economical, even when the Sabres were down 3-0. He made a comeback possible with a stone cold robbery of Brooks Laich on what would have been a lay-up off a pass from Nicklas Backstrom.

Neuvirth is a technical goalie in the same mold, and for 32 minutes he was one-upping the veteran at the other end. But in those 48 seconds and in the minutes to follow in the second period Neuvirth was handling the puck as if it was radioactive. His glove was betraying him, a hint that he was more than a little flustered by the sudden reversal of fortune. But Neuvirth is a young goalie, and fans got a treat, if they were looking for it. It was fascinating to watch him work through things to get out of the second period in a manner much like a heavyweight fighter who takes a couple of bell-ringing head shots and fights his way to the end of the round. You saw a big step in the education of a goalie tonight, taking one step closer to the level of play Miller now displays regularly.

-- Alex Ovechkin had two shot attempts in the third period of a 3-2 game (one shot on goal). That’s two more than he had in either of the previous two games in the third period, but one has to wonder, what’s up?

-- You can see in Marcus Johansson a player who someday will be an important asset to the Caps. He is an excellent skater, he battles along the boards, he had good defensive instincts. But he seems to struggle in space on offense. That might be a product of his still learning the game that is played on a smaller ice surface. Time and space are things in short supply in the smaller rink, and Johansson found himself skating into difficult situations. When his decision making gets faster, that part of his game will improve immensely. But that is not yet now. His rudimentary offensive instincts probably had the effect of Ovechkin having to play in a lower gear for the first two periods and Knuble having a little bit of trouble figuring out where he needed to be to take advantage of whatever Johansson might throw at the net. Johansson took only four shifts in the third period, none in the last 9:53.

-- If there was a subtitle for tonight’s game it might have been: “Rise of the Grinders.” David Steckel, Jason Chimera, and Matt Bradley had a fine game. Chimera and Bradley especially seemed to have a chemistry with one another. Combined these three were 2-3-5, plus-6, had five hits, three blocked shots, and importantly – no giveaways.

-- Speaking of Bradley, no hits. Very unusual given his hits to minutes played ratio this season. On the other hand, he did lead the team in shots on goal (five).

-- Brooks Laich wins the Whitman Sampler from the scoresheet… one assist, plus-1, two shots, two shots blocked, one missed shot, one giveaway, one takeaway, one blocked shot, two draws taken (both lost).

-- David Steckel won more draws than he lost (9-for-17). That’s not unusual. But Marcus Johansson had the best winning percentage for the Caps – 66.7 (10-for-15).

-- Buffalo had a total of six turnovers. The Sabres’ parsimony with the puck made the Caps look positively sloppy by comparison.

-- Buffalo has three power play goals in November. Two of them were against the Caps.

-- On the other side, the Caps had two power play chances tonight, both in the same sequence (converting the 5-on-3 portion of a power play and failing on the ensuing 5-on-4). That makes seven chances in the last four games. It’s nice that the Caps converted 42.9 percent of those chances, but the fact of the matter is that the Caps have three power play goals in their last four games, and the opposition has four.

-- The “Being There" prize for Buffalo goes to Rob Niedermayer. In 15 minutes he did get an assist that left him plus-1, but the rest of his line on the score sheet was utterly untouched. No shot attempts, no hits, takeaways, giveaways, blocked shots or faceoffs taken. For the Caps, Mike Knuble’s scoresheet was white as snow but for a lone hit, earning him the Caps' version.

In the end, the Caps are now 9-1-1 since dropping both games of a home-and-home series with Boston last month. In those 11 games the Caps have outscored their opponents 50-30. This one lacked the fireworks, a product of the fact that despite the disparity in talent between these teams, Buffalo has a lot of guys who just know how to play the game and set the pace. It left all of the Caps’ skill guys not named “Semin” a bit frustrated, and that left it to the grinders on the third line to chip in.

The Caps are now 14-4-1 and will play Game 20 of the season on Friday in Atlanta. Through 20 games last season the Caps were 12-4-4. It is amazing that the Caps have improved on their pace of last season without putting more than a few solid three-period games together. Tonight was almost one of them, except for those 48 seconds.

RCCJC

Evaluating the performance of hockey players can be a difficult proposition when comparing positions. The responsibilities of forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders are quite different, and comparing players across categories can be a chore. And that makes voting for major awards a difficult proposition for voters.

Yes, we are still early in the season – too early to narrow the field of candidates in any single award category – but there is one Capital who is certainly shining brightly among his peers when it comes to his chances of winning one award.

John Carlson came into the season on many observers’ short lists of Calder Trophy candidates as the top rookie in the class of 2011. He has not disappointed. If you look at his performance compared to his peer group – rookie defensemen – he ranks at or near the top of his class in a whole host of statistical categories:

What is more, Carlson has the only game winning goal among rookie defensemen (in a 5-3 win over Boston on November 5th), and he is second among rookie defensemen in penalty killing ice time (2:20/game).

Carlson is not without his rookie moments. He leads all rookie defensemen in giveaways, and he is second in penalty minutes. But in a solid rookie defenseman class that includes the likes of P.K. Subban, Cam Fowler, Keaton Ellerby, and others, Carlson is staking his claim as a “Real Calder Candidate.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, November 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals conclude their brief home stand tonight by hosting the Buffalo Sabres at Verizon Center. The Capitals bring an eight-game points streak into the game and…

“’Scuse me… do you have any room on this bandwagon?”

Beg pardon?

“Is there any room left on this bandwagon?”

I don’t know that you would call it a “bandwagon.” Let me guess… you’re a Redskin fan.

“Kinda.”

Too bad about Monday night, huh?”

“Tell me about it.”

You stay for the whole game?

“Yup.”

I can see where you might want to jump on to watch a team that is having some good fortune.

“Appreciate it, but I just have one question.”

Yeah, shoot.

“Got a place on this bandwagon where I can stretch out, maybe lay down while the game goes on?”

Well, maybe. Say, that’s a nice “92” jersey you have.

“shhhhhh…”

As we noted, the Caps end a brief two-game home stand tonight with a game against the Buffalo Sabres, a team that interrupted the Caps’ winning ways last Saturday, 3-2 in overtime, to secure their first home win of the season. It is the only blemish on the Caps’ record in the last eight games, during which they are 7-0-1. Over those eight games the Caps have outscored the opposition 39-23 and have scored five or more goals in five of the eight games (not including a Gimmick that resulted in a fifth “goal” for scoring purposes in beating Toronto 5-4). The overall numbers for the teams look like this…

We do not see any particular need to rehash what we wrote about the Sabres last Saturday. Ryan Miller, Derek Roy, the Tylers, Steve Montador…oh, and that Vanek guy. So let’s take a look at the Caps and this eight game points streak.

As you might expect the Young Guns have fattened up their numbers during this streak. It has been an impressive run for the quartet:

Alex Ovechkin: 5-10-15, plus-5
Nicklas Backstrom: 2-12-14, plus-7
Alexander Semin: 8-5-13, plus-5
Mike Green: 5-6-11, plus-5

That accounts for roughly half (20) of the total goal production (39) over the last eight games, which begs the question of where the rest came from. A total of 13 players shared in the other 19 goals scored, which speaks to contributions up and down the roster. Of particular note is the contribution of the defensemen at the offensive end. In addition to Green, here is how they did:

Tyler Sloan: 1-4-5, plus-3 (five games)
John Erskine: 2-2-4, plus-5
John Carlson: 1-2-3, plus-3
Jeff Schultz: 0-3-3, plus-3
Karl Alzner: 1-1-2, plus-2
Tom Poti: 1-0-1, plus 1 (one game)

Then there is the fourth line. Matt Hendricks, Matt Bradley, David Steckel have combined to go 5-7-12, plus-7 over the eight games.

You would be hard pressed to find problems, at least on offense, but two players do come to mind because they have been shuttled around in an effort to spring their offensive games loose. Mike Knuble has been shuttling between the top two lines and hasn’t yet found a consistent spark offensively. He is 2-2-4 over the eight games. Tomas Fleischmann has shown up anywhere between the second and fourth lines, and he is having a worse time than Knuble finding an offensive rhythm. Over the eight games he is 1-2-3.

For the goaltenders, Michal Neuvirth has an unblemished record at 5-0-0 in the eight game run. But it hasn’t been an aesthetic masterpiece. His goals-against average of 3.22 and save percentage of .886 is evidence of his cooling off quite a bit after his strong start. On the other hand Braden Hotlby has performed well in his first three appearances in the NHL. He is 2-0-1, 2.22, .911 to complete the 7-0-1 team record over the last eight games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Jordan Leopold

Thomas Vanek had a pair of goals in the first meeting of these clubs last Saturday, but lost in the noise was the fact that Leopold assisted on all three Sabre goals. And, he is 2-7-9, plus-6 in his last 11 games. But he has been on the ice for 28 goals against the Sabres this season, the fifth highest total in the league (but still behind teammate Tyler Myers, who is fourth). He is 2-5-7 in 13 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Laich is 2-4-6 in the 7-0-1 run the Caps find themselves on, but he drew an oh-fer in points in almost 18 minutes of play against the Sabres last Saturday. He added a giveaway and lost three of four faceoffs for good measure (although he did have three blocked shots). He has not had an especially good time of it against the Sabres in his career, posting two goals and five assists in 20 career games. Laich has only two goals in his last 13 games, but this is not unlike the start he had last season when he put up only two goals in 12 games after he had a pair against Boston in the season opener.  He finished with 25.

Keys:

1. Power Play. We’ll keep hammering on this as long as the situation remains the same. And by that we mean that the Caps just aren’t spending much (as in “nearly enough”) time on the power play. The Caps are 10-for-26 on the power play in this eight game run (38.5 percent), but 3.25 chances a game (five over the last three) isn’t giving the power play a chance to bury opponents.


2. The Flip Side. The other side of the power play coin is that the Sabres’ power play has been awful – 2-for-35 in their last nine games (5.7 percent). But one of those goals came against the Caps on Saturday. Buffalo is a decent 5-on-5 team (11th in the league). Don’t give them chances to augment that with cheap power play goals.

3. Close ‘em out. Early in the season Michal Neuvirth built a reputation for shutting teams down in the third period. Not so much in this eight-game run. In his six appearances in the third period and overtime over the last eight games he has stopped 48 of 54 shots (.889 save percentage). One cannot count on the Caps to continue scoring almost five goals a game to nullify that number.

In the end, you look at the numbers and wonder how Buffalo can stay with the Caps. Well, they are well-coached; they are a shifty, speedy lot; and they have an elite goaltender. Despite their record (and even that of their elite goaltender – Ryan Miller is 18th in GAA and 27th in save percentage), they do play teams close. Twelve of the Sabres’ 19 games have been settled by one goal, and their record is 5-4-3 in those games, including Saturday's 3-2 overtime win over the Caps. Let a team hang around, and you might not like the result. Surely the Caps didn’t like Saturday’s result.

The trouble for the Caps is that only three teams have scored fewer first period goals than the 11 the Caps have. That has to turn around to force the Sabres to open up and take more risks than they might like against a team with superior talent such as Washington.

Caps 4 – Sabres 3

That Was The Week That Was: November 7-13, By the Tens

The second week of November has come and gone, and here is how it went for the boys in red…

Record for the week: 3-0-1

This was a week full of potential land mines for the Caps. First up was the Philadelphia Flyers, who bring their own brand of nastiness to any game in which they play. The Caps showed that they could resist the temptation to play a retaliatory sort of game and ended up on the long side of a 3-2 overtime decision. Then there was the visit to Madison Square Garden, which can be intimidating for veterans, let alone the youngsters that populate a roster such as Washington’s. But the Caps came out with a 5-3 win after scoring the last three goals of the game. Tampa Bay came to town trying to impress as the new big dog on the block but skated out of town a 6-3 loser. Even in Buffalo, where the Caps played some of their worst hockey in recent memory in the second period of that game, the Caps managed a standings point in a 3-2 overtime loss. A 3-0-1 week has to be looked upon as a success.


Offense: 4.00/game

It was more of the same for the Caps last week, and by that we mean slow starts and bigger finishes. Three goals scored in the first period of the four games, five in the second period, seven in the third, and one in the two overtimes in which the Caps played. It was quite a balanced week for the Caps, too. Eleven different Caps had goals, and 17 players registered points (including all seven defensemen who played). Alexander Semin had the big week (4-4-8), with Nicklas Backstrom chipping in seven (1-6-7) and Alex Ovechkin six (1-5-6).


Defense: 2.75/game

It was not an especially good week for on the defensive side of the ledger, but in fairness the Caps played two top-ten offensive teams last week (Philadelphia, New York Rangers). Allowing those two teams a total of five goals – none of them in the third period – is a fine result. And Tampa Bay certainly has capable fire power in Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, and Vincent Lecavalier. Overall the Caps continued to show an ability to keep their net clean late. Only three of the eleven goals were scored in the third period or overtime in the four games.

Goaltending: 2.70/.909

The story of the week was the play of rookie Braden Holtby. He was 1-0-1 for the week, stopping 47 of 52 shots in a pair of games that went to extra time to settle. He defeated the Flyers in his first NHL start and kept the Caps close enough to earn a point against Buffalo on a night when the skaters didn’t seem to be doing much in the way of skating. Sandwiched between those two games were a pair of wins for Michal Neuvirth, who was the beneficiary of 11 goals scored by the Caps. It provided him some margin for error while he was stopping 63 of 69 shots. What was most noteworthy about Neuvirth’s performance for the week was his stopping 23 of 25 third period shots.

Power Play: 4-12 (33.3%)

That the Caps finished the week converting one of every three power plays is a good thing. That they had only 12 chances to do so wasn’t so good. And getting a total of one chance in each of the last two games of the week was not good at all. It would be hard to improve on four goals on 17 power play shots, but the difficulty is not getting the chances to take those shots. Given that the Caps had only one power play against Buffalo, this was probably the difference in failing to secure a perfect record for the week.

Penalty Killing: 13-16 (81.3%)

It was not a bad week, but this is not the penalty killing group that started the season, either. Part of this might have been defenseman Tom Poti missing three games last week (although he was on the ice for a power play goal in his only appearance, against Tampa Bay). But it is hard to overlook that the Caps allowed 29 shots on 14 power plays over the last three games of the week (the Flyers had none on either of their two power plays in the first game of the week). Teams are getting some pretty good looks on the man advantage, and it makes the .897 save percentage for the week from the Caps’ goaltenders on the penalty kill rather impressive.


Paying the Price: 88 hits/55 blocked shots

This is an area where the Caps might not get enough credit from fans. From time to time the Caps seemed to be viewed as a physically unimpressive (or unwilling) team. But the fact is, this weeks' work left the Caps sixth in the league in hits, fifth in blocked shots.

Faceoffs: 146-for-259 (56.4%)

It was a dominating week in the circle for the Caps, who took the majority of faceoffs in each of the four games. David Steckel had a good week (67.9 percent), which is to be expected. But Nicklas Backstrom had a week that was almost as good (66.2 percent). The strong week allowed the Caps to jump back over 50 percent for the season (50.8 percent) and into 11th place in the league.

Turnovers: Minus-5

Last week was not a very good one for the Caps in this area. The result was a product of recording 40 giveaways in the four games. Perhaps that is what happens in a high-risk/high reward style the Caps frequently seem to play, but at the moment they are third in the league in total giveaways. That is offset by the fact that they are also third in takeaways, proving that the Caps giveth, and the Caps taketh away (oh, we’re gonna burn for that one).

Impressions:

3-0-1. What is so bad about that? Well, nothing, really, if the Caps are scoring four goals a game. But in all three wins the Caps allowed the first goal, and in all four of the week’s games they had to come back from second or third period deficits to earn standings points. It was indicative of a club that could dominate for 30-40 minutes of a game, but one for which the 60-minute sort of game has been infrequent.

The Young Guns had a pretty good week. Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Nicklas Backstrom (reconstituted as the top line for much of the week) were a combined 6-15-21, plus-13 for the week. Mike Green was on the ice for only three of the 11 goals against, which isn’t a bad number considering that he averaged 26:51 in ice time for the week.

Frankly, we would be more worried about the within-game inconsistency if the calendar said “March” instead of “November.” They learned last year that peaking (like with, say, a 14-game winning streak) in January and February -- or November -- isn’t really a formula for success where post-season success might be a product of peaking at the right time and in the right way as much as it is a matter of talent.

A TWO-point night -- Game 18: Caps 6 - Thrashers 4

In October the Washington Capitals held opponents to two or fewer goals seven times in 11 games. With tonight’s 6-4 win over the Atlanta Thrashers, the Caps have now allowed three or more goals in six of seven games in November.

Sure, with the win tonight the Caps are 6-0-1 in November, but in the midst of all of that there is the unsettling feeling that this team is looking an awful lot like last year’s team – long on goal scoring, but not tightening up when they need to.

And this was the case tonight as the Caps, for the second straight game, took an early lead, only to give it away in a second period filled with errors. It started well enough as Alex Ovechkin took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom at the Thrashers’ blue line, skated in, and wristed a puck that Atlanta goalie Chris Mason manhandled into his own net to give the Caps an early lead 90 seconds into the game. And after Mike Green scored on a power play eight minutes later, it looked as if the Caps would be cruising.

Trouble is, they played like it. Mike Knuble and Alexander Semin took penalties 1:12 apart midway through the first period to give the visitors a 5-on-3 advantage. Just before the Knuble penalty was about to expire, Tobias Enstrom sent a rocket of a slap shot wide of the Caps’ net. The puck caromed straight back off the end boards where it appeared to hit the top of the net and then goalie Michal Neuvirth. Rich Peverley continued his peculiar abuse of the Caps, getting a stick on the stray puck after it hit Neuvirth and nudging it into the net at the 13:14 mark.

Alexander Semin restored the two-goal lead just before the first intermission, but that merely set the stage for the Caps second straight forgettable second period. Andrew Ladd scored for Atlanta 72 seconds into the period to set the tone. And after Matt Hendricks scored on a pretty goal from the goal line while backing away from the net (sending Chris Mason to the bench in favor of Ondrej Pavelec in goal for Atlanta), Bryan Little tied the game, first with a goal 45 seconds after the Hendricks tally. Then he tied the game with a shorthanded goal after pick-pocketing Alex Ovechkin on a Caps power play, skating in on Michal Neuvirth, and pinballing the puck off several Neuvirth body parts and into the net.

If you were pondering which Cap might be the one to reverse the momentum, you probably would have gone through a dozen or so players’ names before you settled on “John Erskine.” But there he was, taking a feed from, to mention another unexpected name – David Steckel, and stepping into a slap shot that beat Pavelec cleanly on the blocker side to restore sanity to the evening. The Caps clamped down from there and sealed the deal with a Steckel empty netter with 37 seconds left for the final margin. It was another win, but one might be forgiven for feeling uneasy in the manner in which it was earned.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps have mastered the 40-minute effort. Usually this season it has been the final 40 minutes of a contest. Tonight it was the first and last 20 minutes. In the first and third periods the Caps outshot the Thrashers 25-14 and outscored them 5-1. In the middle 20 the Caps were outshot 13-8 and outscored 3-1.

-- This makes two consecutive games in which Alex Ovechkin had no shot attempts in the third period. He had no shots on goal after scoring 90 seconds into the game. And here is an ominous statistic… he skated only 5:47 in the third period of what was a tied or one-goal game for all but 37 seconds of the period (his lowest ice time of the three periods). He just isn’t there right now. Or there is something going on that isn’t seeing the light of day.

-- Ovechkin did have the pass of the night, coming on the goal by Alexander Semin at the end of the first period. Skating with a full head of steam down the left side, he had a chance to use defender Brent Sopel as a screen for a wrist shot. But he saw Semin filling the lane on the other side, and he took advantage, laying a nice saucer pass over the stick of Sopel and out ahead of Semin, hitting his teammate perfectly in stride where he could backhand the puck into what was then an empty net.

-- John Erskine has scored on two of his last four shots on goal. Mike who?

-- Speaking of Erskine, he had less ice time than any other skater tonight – 12:29 – and only two shifts after getting his game-winning goal (one of those after the Caps scored the empty netter to ice the game). Hockey is a ruthless sport.

-- And another note about Erskine. We had bruises just watching his fight with Eric Boulton. Those two were throwing haymakers that made it look like the 15th round of Rocky Balboa against Apollo Creed.

-- OK, one more thing about Erskine. He would have had a Gordie Howe Hat Trick, having been credited with an assist on the Ovechkin goal. But the assist was taken away later. Yes, hockey is a ruthless sport.

-- Steven Stamkos is very good at scoring goals. Tim Thomas is very good at preventing goals. But you would be hard pressed to find someone who performs his specialty better than David Steckel right now. Since sitting out the game against the Rangers last Tuesday, he has won 49 of 69 faceoffs over three games (including 19 of 23 tonight). That’s a 71.0 percent winning percentage.

-- In October, Michal Neuvirth was lights out in the third period and overtime, stopping 68 of the 71 shots he saw (.958 save percentage). In November, no so much. Coming into this game he stopped 35 of 42 third period and overtime shots this month (.833). But perhaps closing the door in turning away all seven of the shots he faced in the third period tonight will signal a return to his stingy ways.

-- OK, so Mike Green had a goal and an assist. But color us just as impressed with his six blocked shots.

-- It’s nice that the Caps had three power plays . Better that they scored on one of them. But we were scratching out head over the fact that the Caps outshot Atlanta on their own power play by only a 4-3 margin and gave up a goal in the process.

-- At the risk of beating a dead horse… 14:22 in ice time (only four minutes in the third period), no points, no shot attempts, one hit, 4-for-11 on faceoffs. Tomas Fleischmann is not having a stretch to remember.

-- Lost in all the noise of Caps goals this month (31 in seven games) is the fact that Eric Fehr has only one of them, his only goal in his last 14 games (he did have an assist tonight).

-- Tyler Sloan had a pair of assists. That is the first multi-point game of his NHL career. He was also a plus-2, the first time he was that high on the positive side in almost a year (November 23, 2009, in a 4-3 overtime loss to Ottawa).

-- Steckel was a plus-3. That is a personal best for him in the NHL.

In the end, it was a win. Months from now no one is likely to remember how it was earned, but folks might remember the trend that seems to be reasserting itself. An ability to score often, but a little too loose defensively and lacking in a full and focused effort. In other words, getting by.

In fairness, as Bruce Boudreau noted in the post game, the team hasn’t practiced in eight days and systems are breaking down. This isn’t any different from any other performance activity. A musician isn’t going to be very good in concert if he or she hasn’t has the chance to put in the time practicing, and the Caps have been performing four of the last six nights and six of the last ten. It is hard to fit in a rigorous practice in that schedule.

But the Caps have a couple of days without a game. Tomorrow will be an off-day, and then they get that day to practice and put the wrenches to their systems to tighten things up. Hopefully it will yield benefits when the Caps get a chance on Wednesday to repay Buffalo for the overtime loss on Saturday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, November 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“Whoa, déjà vu.”

What did you just say?

“Nothing, uh, just had a little..deja vu.”

What did you see?

“I read your blog post, then…and then another that looked just like it.”

How much like it, was it the same blog post?

“Might have been, I'm not sure.”

A déjà vu is usually a glitch in the Matrix… it happens when they change something.

“Dude, what are you talking about? Aren’t you the only one here?”

Yeah…maybe I had too many adult beverages watching the game last night.

“Excellent!”

And will you stop bending all my spoons?!

Well, it’s not quite déjà vu, but it is a second game for the Caps inside of 24 hours after having dropped a 3-2 overtime decision in Buffalo last evening. Tonight’s opponent is the Atlanta Thrashers, who played a game of their own last evening, losing 4-2 on home ice to the Pittsburgh Penguins. And the Thrashers will, like the Caps, be playing in their third game in four nights. So, the teams are starting even on that score.

The Thrashers are not starting even with the Caps in many other facets, though. They trail the Caps by eight points in the standings and have lost four of their past five games (1-3-1), outscored by their opponents by 17-13. The overall numbers look like this…

In the 1-3-1 run on which the Thrashers find themselves, they have had a difficult time stopping opponents on the power play. They were able to kill off only eight of 14 shorthanded situations over those five games (57.1 percent). The best thing that one can say about the Thrasher penalty kill lately is that they haven’t had to use it much – fewer than three times a game in the last five games (and the fifth fewest power plays allowed per game for the season).

With Ondrej Pavelec having played last evening in goal, it is likely that Chris Mason will have to serve as the Thrashers best penalty killer tonight (if you subscribe to the goalie having to be a team's best penalty killer). Mason was excellent in the first meeting of these clubs on opening night. He came into the game in relief of Pavelec when Pavelec collapsed on the ice less than three minutes into the contest. He stopped 29 of 31 shots to earn the win in the 4-2 final. Since then he hasn’t been as successful – 5-5-1 in 11 appearances with a 3.82 GAA and .900 save percentage. The problem is not entirely his, however. In the 11 games he played after defeating the Caps he faced an average of 38.3 shots per 60 minutes. Way too much for any goaltender to have to handle (by way of comparison, tonight’s goalie for the Caps – Michal Neuvirth – has faced an average of 29 shots per 60 minutes). Mason is 3-1-1 in his last five decisions, though (3.06, .919).

So far this season, Evander Kane likes playing against Washington. In two games against the Caps he has a pair of two goal games – four of the seven he has overall. The flip side of that is that in nine games since last facing Washington, Kane is 2-4-6, minus-9. We was held to a single shot on goal in each of his last two games.

Rich Peverley is 1-1-2, minus-5 in his last five games. Not that it matters. In 12 games against the Caps as a member of the Thrashers, Peverley is 3-7-10, and he has a pair of assists in the two games so far this season. But it probably says something about the state of the Thrashers that Peverley is centering the top line with Andrew Ladd and Niclas Bergfors on his wings. More that he centers the top power play unit. He has only four power play points this season, seventh on the club. That the Thrashers are fourth in the league on the power play suggests he’s more of a space eater who provides cover for defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byguglien (himself quite a space eater), who are one-two on the club in power play scoring and in the top-ten in the league in man-advantage scoring.

Speaking of defensemen, it is worth noting that only one Thrasher defenseman is a “plus” for the season. Brent Sopel, part of the great Blackhawk southern migration last off season, is a plus-3 in 16 games so far. Sopel is something of an odd duck in the way he is deployed on defense by Atlanta. He is dead last among the eight defensemen having dressed for the Thrashers this year in even-strength ice time per game, suggesting he is more of a third-pairing type of defenseman. But no Atlanta defenseman gets more penalty-killing time per game than Sopel’s 3:38. It is more than Nicklas Lidstrom gets, more than Zdeno Chara gets, more than Mike Green and Chris Pronger get.


The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Atlanta: Nik Antropov

Last season, his first with Atlanta, Antropov put in a claim to be among the better centers in the league with 24 goals and 67 points in 76 games, with a plus-13 thrown in on what was not a strong club. But he got off to a grisly start this season – 0-1-1, minus-3 in his first eight games. He has shown more of a pulse lately (4-2-6 in his last eight games, but with a minus-7), but it is not the sort of line the Thrashers can afford to have him sustaining if they are to be a playoff contender. He is 7-14-21 in 30 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

It says something that the third leading scorer in the league does not look quite right, but subjectively speaking there seems to be a lack of a dynamic aspect to Alex Ovechkin’s game. He is getting his points, but he is doing so in what, for him at least, is a subdued fashion (when was the last time you saw him jump into the glass after a goal?). Perhaps it is maturity, perhaps it is recognizing the wealth of talent around him and forgoing doing most of it by himself, maybe he is just saving himself by parceling out his expenditure of energy to have more left later in the year. But there have been few, if any instances in which he has taken over a game. There will be times when he has to. This game might not be (in fact, shouldn’t be) one of them, but it would be nice to see the old “Ovie” from time to time. Still, it would be hard to feel too bad about a player who had an eight-game points streak snapped last night (5-10-15, plus-8 in those eight games), and he is 28-32-60, plus-6 in 38 career games against Atlanta.

Keys:

1. Uneven-Steven. The Thrashers have four players in plus territory this season, and only one of them (Brent Sopel) gets more than 15 minutes of ice time a game. Atlanta has three defensemen that get more than 18 minutes of even strength ice time a game (Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom, and Zach Bogosian), and they are a combined minus-12. There is little wonder that the Thrashers have been outscored 38-29 at 5-on-5. The Caps are just about the mirror image of the Thrashers, outscoring opponents 36-29 at even strength.

2. Catch a couple of stripers. No, not rockfish in the Chesapeake, but the guys wearing the orange arm bands. The Caps have a top-ten power play, one that is 9-for-23 (39.1 percent) over its last seven games, but the problem is that 23 power plays number (3.3 a game). The Caps don’t get enough opportunities to take the greatest advantage of that advantage. They recorded only a single power play opportunity in each of their last two games. So, despite the efficient power play and the improved penalty kill, the Caps are still only a plus-2 on special teams (13 PPG against 11 PPG allowed). They need to force the action to draw more fouls.

3. Finish strong. Only Carolina has allowed more third period goals (26) than has Atlanta (23). Only Vancouver has scored more goals in the third period (23) than have the Caps (22). Pittsburgh lit up the Thrashers for three goals in the third period last night. The Caps are certainly capable of doing the same tonight, especially against a team going on the road for its second game in two nights.

In the end, the Thrashers have done the dance of inconsistency, swerving from streak to streak. After defeating the Caps on opening night the Thrashers lost two, won two, lost three, won two, lost, won, lost three, won, lost. Such is life for a .500 team (7-7-3). They will be coming to the hardest rink in the Eastern Conference for the visitor to win. The Caps are 8-1-0 at home and have scored at least four goals in four of their last five home contests. For Atlanta, a team that has allowed the fourth highest total of goals on the road in the NHL so far this season, the task is daunting. The Thrashers played the Caps close and tough in the first two games of this season’s series, winning one and losing the other in overtime. But talent is finding its appropriate level as the NHL approaches the 20-game mark, and the Caps simply have too much for Atlanta to cope with.

Caps 5 – Thrashers 2

A ONE-point Night -- Game 17: Sabres 3 - Caps 2 (OT)

Sweep…miss.

Poke…miss.

Goal.

That’s how the Washington Capitals saw their six-game winning streak and five-game extra time streak ended tonight as the Buffalo Sabres won their first game on home ice this season, 3-2, in overtime.

It ended with Thomas Vanek collecting the puck in the neutral zone, whereupon he circled into the Caps’ zone with John Carlson back. Carlson tried to sweep the puck off Vanek’s stick, but failed as the Sabres’ forward finessed the puck around Carlson to spring him in on goalie Braden Hotlby. The Caps’ goalie then tried to poke the puck off Vanek’s stick, but missed, and in doing so took himself to the ice and leaving him helpless to stop Vanek as he skated wide and backhanded the puck into the net to the delight of the HSBC Arena crowd.

But the Caps did earn a standings point for the seventh straight game, courtesy of Nicklas Backstrom, who scored seven minutes into the third period on a fine all around play by Backstrom, John Erskine, and Jason Chimera. Erskine got things started by by jumping up along the left wing boards and outmaneuvering Mike Grier to keep the puck in the offensive zone (as this screen capture from NHL.com shows)...

Chimera collected the loose puck at the top of the left wing circle and instead of firing it on goalie Ryan Miller, slid the puck over to Backstrom who wound up for a slap shot...

Backstrom recognized, though, that he had time and a lot of space, so he hesitated just a moment to get Shaone Morrisonn to go to the ice to try to block the shot and Miller to drop into his butterfly...

Backstrom then fired and beat both Morrisonn and Miller to allow the Caps to escape with a point that they should not have earned...

That they did so was in part due to the play at the other end of the ice of goalie Braden Holtby, who looked solid once more in net. He stopped 21 of 23 shots in regulation, allowing only Steve Montador and Vanek to beat him. It was also due to an inspiring performance by the Caps’ penalty killers, who killed off two of three four-minute double minor penalties and allowed only one power play goal in seven power play chances for the Sabres.

All of that overshadowed Karl Alzner cranking up and rifling one into the back of the net in the first period to give the Caps a rare first-goal, first period lead. It was Alzner’s first goal of the season, the sixth Caps defenseman to score a goal in the last seven games (only Jeff Schultz has failed to light the lamp).

Other stuff…

-- Between Alzner’s goal in the first and Backstrom’s goal in the third, there was an ocean of suck on the part of the Caps. Over the intervening 39:06 the Caps outshot the Sabres 18-15 but were outscored 2-0 and managed only four shots in the second period while taking a pair of double minor penalties (Chimera for cross checking/unsportsmanlike conduct and Tomas Fleischmann for high-sticking).

-- Buffalo…seven power plays. Washington…one. If you’re counting, the Caps now have had two power play opportunities in the last 144:55 of play. It’s like the Ferrari that you’re keeping in the garage and never taking for a spin on the street.

-- The seven power plays allowed is the most for the Caps since allowing eight against Toronto last January 15th, a stretch of 52 games.

-- 17:38, one shot, no shot attempts in the third period or overtime, minus-1. Oh Captain! My Captain! Rise up and hear the bells. We can appreciate that Ovechkin is a big hitter, but when he has as many hits (five) as shot attempts (five), he’s doing the other team a favor. And if he scores on that breakaway in the first period, the rest of this post probably reads a whole lot different.

-- That’s two straight games of fewer than 18 minutes for Ovechkin. That’s the first time that has happened since January 15/17 (he was 2-5-7 in those games, wins over Toronto and Philadelphia).

-- Bruce Boudreau had more line combos tonight that McDonalds has in their drive thru. We could have sworn we saw Peter Bondra on one and Bobby Carpenter on another.

-- Carlson and Holtby were victimized by Vanek on the game-winner, but we’re not sure what Marcus Johansson was doing earlier in the play chasing Vanek like a driver trying to draft the car ahead of him at Daytona.

-- Got to give it to Holtby, he was not playing the cautious rookie on the last play by ducking into his own net as Vanek advanced. He took the gambler’s chance and just didn’t cash in.

-- Backstrom wins the ticket to the buffet. He sampled the whole score sheet tonight – one goal, plus-1, a double minor penalty, four shots, a shot blocked, two misses, a hit, a giveaway, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and he won 11 of 12 draws.

-- That’s right, Backstrom won 11 of 12 draws. He is now 15th in the league in faceoff winning percentage, higher than that of Sidney Crosby (we tireless await the praise from across the land to be heaped on Nicky for polishing yet another aspect of his game… yeah, right).

-- Alex Ovechkin has the reputation of being a big hitter among forwards, especially as a high end skill guy. But here is something… Ovechkin averages one hit per 6:15 of ice time. Matt Bradley averages one hit per 3:20 of ice time. He had three in fewer than nine minutes of ice time tonight. Every player needs to have something he is good at, and this is Bradley’s. Being abusive.

-- As Mike Vogel pointed out, Jeff Schultz should not have been recorded as on ice for the winning goal, that John Carlson and Karl Alzner were the defensemen. Here is the visual evidence (no, you haven’t been drinking too much…this screen capture is blurry)...

-- Tomas Fleischmann is going to want to get to Kettler early to keep the coaches from looking at the film of this one. One shot, a double minor, three giveaways, 11:36 in ice time (none in the last 4:36 of regulation and four minutes of overtime). He did win five of eight faceoffs, though. But the only thing keeping him from getting a seat in the press box might be Boyd Gordon being on the shelf with an injury. Your second line center can’t be 0-2-2 over his last five games and only once having a faceoff winning percentage over 50 percent.

In the end, it was a point the Caps probably did not deserve. They played a better first period than they have played lately, but had an atrocious second period and a not altogether together third period, too. That they gained a point was a product of skill (Backstrom) and solid play from someone who might not have been expected to provide it (Holtby). The other skill guys were dormant, and the secondary guys weren’t much in the game. This is the kind of game one might have expected tomorrow, which will be the Caps’ third in four days. It was not the sort of game one would have expected with a night off last night and against a team that was struggling on its own ice. When the Caps got the first goal, it could have been an opportunity to step on the throat of a fragile Sabres team, but the Caps wasted that chance with an effort in the second period that Bruce Boudreau said was “maybe our worst period of hockey since [he has] been here.”

In a way, this game was a window into the Caps and a chance to see if they have really learned certain lessons. The fact is, they didn’t play well with a lead. They got a goal to get ahead, then coasted to let the opponent overtake them, causing them to have to scramble late. Sound familiar? Or has last spring become a faded memory? The Caps still seem to struggle with the idea of playing with a sense of urgency when ahead early, of standing on an opponent’s throat and not letting them up off the ice.

Now the Caps have to play that third game in four days and do it with a short turnaround (the game starting at 5:00). But good teams overcome those kinds of obstacles and avoid making one bad period into bad habits that linger.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, November 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s back on the road for the Caps this evening as they visit Buffalo to take on the Sabres in a battle of haves and have nots. As for the “have not” portion of this matchup, the Sabres have not yet won a game at home this season, sporting a record of 0-6-1 in the unfriendly confines of HSBC Arena. But it could be worse. The folks in Buffalo haven’t experienced a win for either of their major professional sports teams – the Sabres or the NFL’s Bills – since April 6th when the Sabres beat the Rangers 5-2. The Bills make the Sabres look good, having but one win at home in this calendar year, that coming last January 3rd.*

Buffalo is a city with many nicknames… The City of Good Neighbors, The Queen City, The Nickel City, Queen City of the Lakes, City of Light. Uh, nice try. There is one, though, that really seems to fit, given the recent luck of its sports teams… “The City of No Illusions.” In fact, you might think of Buffalo as “The City of Associated with Really Bad Stuff.” Some examples…

-- The first man executed by the electric chair…yup, a Buffalonian. William Kemmler was executed for the murder of his common law wife. But not before the device was tested on a horse.

-- In the 1840’s Buffalo enjoyed prosperity as a major railroad hub. Didn’t last, though. A cholera epidemic swept through the city in 1849, thought to be a product of Buffalo’s rail activity making the city a magnet for new businesses and a popular tourist destination.

-- President William McKinley was assassinated in Buffalo. He died of gangrene eight days after being shot by anarchist Leon Czolgosz.

-- Millard Fillmore used Buffalo as a springboard to political office, eventually becoming Vice President under Zachary Taylor. When “Old Rough and Ready” died of gastroenteritis in 1849, 16 months into his term, Fillmore ascended to the White House. He served the remainder of Taylor’s term, but was not nominated by the Whig Party to stand on his own for election in 1852. He ran again in 1856, carrying the banner of the “Know Nothing” Party (officially the “American Party”). He’d fit right in today.

-- Jim Lorenz once killed a bat during a hockey game. That’s right, kids. It was Game 3 of the 1975 Stanley Cup Finals between the Sabres and the Philadelphia Flyers. It also was an unseasonably warm day in May that caused the ice in Buffalo's Memorial Auditorium to fog, leaving many spectators to guess what was going on down on the ice. Well, one of the things going on was that Lorentz noticed something flying overhead. Upon realizing that what he was seeing was a bat, he swung his stick at the animal and killed it. The Sabres won the game, but lost the series in six games. It would be their last trip to the Stanley Cup finals until…

-- 1999. Game 6, Sabres vs. Stars. Triple overtime, and then…

But tonight it is the Caps who visit Buffalo, hoping to add another brick to the monument to despair that seems to be, well, Buffalo. The Caps bring the league’s best record and a six-game winning streak to the proceedings, while the Sabres bring the league’s worst home record (the only team left not to have won a game at home) and losses in six of their last eight games overall into this contest. The overall numbers look like this…

For the Sabres, it starts in goal. Ryan Miller is the defending Vezina Trophy winner and has to be on anyone’s short list to identify the league’s top goaltender. This year, though, it’s been a string of bad luck for Miller. He started the season wildly inconsistent, allowing only one goal in four of his ten appearances, but allowing four or more in four of them, too. After ten appearances in the Sabres’ first 11 games he was 3-5-2, 2.71, .903. That is the record he will bring into tonight’s game, if he plays. Miller missed the last six games with a hip injury. The Sabres are 2-3-1 in those six games, the two wins coming by way of the Gimmick. Patrick Lalime and Jhonas Enroth allowed 21 goals in those six games (3.50/game), so Miller’s return cannot come soon enough.

Out in front of Miller, this is a team that struggles to score. The Sabres have scored 42 goals so far this season, eight of them coming off the stick of center Derek Roy. He comes into this game on a hot streak, having gone 2-3-5, plus-3 in his last three games. He is also something of a nuisance to the Caps with a 9-11-20 scoring line over his 22 career games against Washington.

Roy is tied for eighth in league scoring, giving the Sabres some punch from the middle. But after him it drops off quite a bit. Buffalo’s balance is reflected in the fact that six players are tied for second in goals with four apiece. One of them is rookie Tyler Ennis (4-6-10, plus-5). Caps fans might look upon Ennis as the “Eric Fehr” of the Sabres (as in, “We Coulda Had Carlson!”…Ennis was drafted 26th overall in the 2008 entry draft, one spot ahead of Caps defenseman John Carlson). But he is doing fine on his own. He had a cup o’ coffee last season, posting three goals and nine points in ten games. At the moment he has goals in each of his last two games coming into tonight’s contest.

If Tyler Ennis is a pleasant surprise in the early going for Buffalo, Thomas Vanek is an unpleasant one. Two years ago Vanek posted 40 goals, his second 40 or more goal season in three years. Last year he had 28, and so far this year his four goals is a 19-goal full year pace. He has gone seven games without lighting the lamp, last scoring a goal in a 6-3 loss in Philadelphia on October 26th. He hasn’t had a lot of success against the Caps – 6-5-11 in 19 career games – but he is one of the few true goal scorers the Sabres have and merits attention.

Tyler Myers is the defending Calder Trophy winner as the league’s top rookie. Ah, but this year, he’s not even the best player named “Tyler” on his own team. Myers is another one of those Sabres with four goals, but here is a stunning number – 27. Buffalo has allowed as a team 55 goals. Myers has been on the ice for 27 of them. Only two players in the entire league (Tom Gilbert of Edmonton and Andy Greene of New Jersey) have been on the ice for more goal scored by opponents than Myers. His minus-10 so far is bad enough, good for 687th among 695 skaters in the league. But had he not posted a plus-3 against hapless New Jersey on Wednesday, he would be dead last in the league in this statistic. He is not having a good year and appears to be missing his departed partner, Henrik Tallinder, now of the New Jersey Devils.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Steve Montador

On a club that has a team-wide minus-6 plus-minus score, a player with a plus-10 bears watching. Montador is far and away the tops on the Sabres in this number (the precocious Tyler Ellis coming in at plus-5). And he is doing it getting the third highest ice time total among Sabre defensemen and the second highest total at even strength. But Montador comes about his plus-10 in an odd sort of way. His defense (or at least his proximity to it) has not been especially effective. He is third among Sabre defensemen in total goals scored by opponents while he is on the ice. But no Sabre defenseman has been on the ice for more goals scored for – 22 overall (more than half of the 42 the Sabres have scored overall). He is going to have to play better defense if he is to finish with a “plus” in this one. The Caps are a few weight classes over the offenses the Sabres have faced recently.

Washington: Mike Knuble

Mike Knuble is a personal nuisance to the Pittsburgh Penguins, having scored 27 goals in 57 career games against them. But it is Buffalo that is second on his goal-scoring list of victims. In 46 career games against the Sabres he has 18 goals. However, none of those goals have come as a member of the Caps (his last goal against Buffalo was the game-winner in a 6-4 Philadelphia win over Buffalo on March 20, 2009). Knuble has awakened from a slow start, though, notching goals in each of his last two games.

Keys:


1. DST. Set the clocks ahead for the Caps like we were going back to daylight savings time. Make them think it is 8:00 when the puck drops, not 7:00. Make them think it is the start of the second period, not the first. Because the Caps are still pitiful in the first period (outscored 17-7). Sooner or later, this will bite them in the backside.

2. Pressure the Tylers. Make Ennis and Myers play defense. Ennis can’t be effective in the offensive end if he is having to play defense, and Myers is just having a devil of a time playing defense at all. These two are young guys. Make them play like it with pressure.

3. It’s Ryan Miler, not “RYAN MILLER!” Ryan Miller is 10-6-0 with a 2.55 GAA in 17 career games against Washington. But he is coming off a hip injury, the current state of which he described as follows:

"It's just kind of something that, as you move forward, you play with. It is just a small hip issue that you let settle down and move forward. I just wanted to make sure I got ready and got myself in situations where if you sit out for a week, week and a half, your timing's not quite there. I just wanted to make sure I can do everything I need to do because I have to be at my best to help these guys."

Doesn’t exactly sound like a 100-percent healthy endorsement of the hip, now does it? Make him move, show him shots. He hasn’t seen a puck in anger in 16 days. Show him a lot of pucks.

In the end, you are what your record says you are. The Caps are the best offensive team in the league and are playing defense well enough to close down teams when they have to (a couple of recent third period hiccups notwithstanding). Buffalo doesn’t score much, has a ghastly power play, and missed their anchor in goal immensely, despite how well Jhonas Enroth played in Ryan Miller’s absence. If the Caps remember who they are and do not play down to the level of their opponent, the Sabres still will be searching for that elusive first home win of the season when the lights go dark at HSBC Arena tonight

Caps 5 – Sabres 2

* OK, the Buffalo Bandits of the National Lacrosse League did defeat the Boston Blazers, 13-10, on April 24th

The NHL All Star Game Ballot -- We Whine So You Won't Have To

So, the NHL released its “ballot” and voting process for this season's All-Star Game. Fans can pick three forwards, two defensemen, and a goaltender in an all-digital voting process. They will have the opportunity to select from among 100 players on the ballot or to write in the name of their selection, if that player is not on the ballot. Fans will, according to the league, have the opportunity to vote as often as they like online, via mobile device, or on Facebook. As the league put it in their release…

"The 2011 NHL All-Star Fan Balloting site will feature interactive English and French ballots. Each player ballot includes video highlights and real-time player statistics. Fans will be permitted to select as few as one player -- a balloted player or write-in -- per online ballot. The NHL.com/vote ballot will be optimized for iPad users.

"Mobile users in the U.S. and Canada will be able to cast their votes via text message using any mobile device and wireless carrier. To vote via text message using any wireless carrier, fans should text their favorite player's last name to the shortcode 81812. Message and data rates may apply.

"Fans in North America have the additional option of a mobile ballot available on iPhone, Android and all Blackberry devices, using any wireless carrier."

Well, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that they have all the toys covered. But what about that ballot? It includes 53 forwards, which we have taken the time to rank by points (it’s as good as any other method for these purposes; click for a larger image):

Uh, notice any player conspicuous by his absence, Caps fans? We’ll give you a hint… among forwards (the balloting pool for this exercise) he’s fourth in overall scoring. Need another hint? He’s second in goals. Tied for 25th in assists. Still having trouble? OK, he’s tied for seventh in plus-minus, tied for fourth in power play goals, and is tied for third in takeaways.

No, it’s not Marion Gaborik. His no goals and two assists in four games is present and accounted for (ok, he did have 42 goals last year, so there is that carryover thing).

It’s not Shane Doan, either. His one goal, three assists, and minus-5 are there for your voting pleasure.

Nope, not John Tavares. He brings that big honkin’ minus-12 to the ballot.

OK, we get why guys like Doan and Tavares are on the ballot. Fans pay the freight, and they should – in our opinion – get to pick the game rosters. Doan is a heart and soul guy who has give his all for the game for 15 seasons, and Tavares is one of those new generation kids that folks might want to see.

We get why Phil Kessel is on the ballot. He’s a Maple Leaf (one of four on the ballot; Washington has three…go figure).

We get why Johan Franzen is on the ballot. He’s a Red Wing.

We even get why Ales Hemsky is on the ballot. Shoot, someone from Edmonton had to be there.

And we get why certain guys who are having fine seasons might get left off like Colorado’s Chris Stewart (10-7-17 so far) or even a Patrick Sharp (whose statistical profile last season looked a lot like Brooks Laich’s, although he does have that Cup, which does count for something). Or even a Loui Ericksson (not exactly a household name, but he did have 71 points last season and is 9-7-16 with a plus-12 so far this season).  They haven't yet had a big year or built a reputation or a following to suggest a slam dunk ballot spot.

And we certainly get that leaving a player off the ballot does not eliminate him from participating in the game.

But how is it that a 40-goal scorer from last season isn’t on the ballot? Of the top 15 goals scorers among forwards from last season, two are not on the ballot. One is Vancouver’s Alexandre Burrows, who missed the first ten games of the season with a shoulder injury and is 1-1-5, plus-3 in five games so far.

The other is this guy…

…the one who is fourth in overall scoring among forwards, second in goals, tied for 25th in assists, tied for seventh in plus-minus, tied for fourth in power play goals, and tied for third in takeaways. And he had 40 goals last year (and has averaged 35 a year for the last four years), which seems to have been forgotten in this ballot engineering.

If it’s entertainment the league wants, Alexander Semin is entertaining, not to mention productive. And even if you accommodate universal eligibility – making sure every team is represented – how is it he is not among the top 53 forwards in the league? It can’t be a pure numbers thing – Anaheim has four forwards on the ballot, Detroit has three, as does Philadelphia and San Jose. But we can see how R.J. Umberger gets a spot on the ballot.

Must be a “playing the game the right way” thing. Or maybe it's an "Alexander" (or "Alexandre") thing.  Or maybe it’s just as Chris Botta tweeted…

“Getting worked up about #NHL All-Star ballot snubs implies the folks in charge know what they're doing. Don't bother.”

Well, we feel better for the rant, anyway.  We hope you do, too.

A Defenseman Grows Up

Mike Green is an “offensive” defenseman. These days, that is a term that seems to question one’s manhood as much as it identifies a defenseman’s style of play. As in, “Green doesn’t play defense.”

It is the narrative theme that probably cost Green a Norris Trophy in each of the last two seasons, his brand of play being less rugged and less “two-way” than the voting media seemed to want in their defensemen nowadays.

Green came to the Capitals as the 29th overall draft pick in the 2004 entry draft. Caps fans know by now that he was a steal at that position, having been the eighth defenseman picked in that draft. But that was as an “offensive” defenseman. And what an offensive defenseman he is. Of the entire Class of 2004, Green has recorded more points than any skater except for two classmates – Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. Not bad company, that.

But the knock on Green has been that he plays only at the offensive end of the ice. You probably could have made that argument when Green was playing in Canadian juniors, based on his statistics (34-113-147 in 168 games in his last three seasons with Saskatoon). And you might have made that case for his brief time in the AHL (12-49-61 in 77 games with Hershey, including playoffs). To date he is 75-156-231 in 330 regular season games in the NHL. Yeah, he does offense rather well.

But playing in one’s own end is perhaps the hardest talent to master in the NHL, especially for a defenseman. Moving the puck, blocking shots, tying up opponents, playing the wall and behind one’s own net. All involve decisions having to be made in the blink of an eye. And this doesn’t even include the decisions at the other end that have their defensive implications – when to step up, when to make that cross-ice pass, when to pinch. Make the wrong decision often, and your goaltender is facing a lot of 2-on-1 breaks.

But back to his own end. The big minutes eaters in the NHL among defensemen get so much ice time, in part, because they are out there killing penalties. Of the top-15 defensemen in average ice time last season, 10 of them skated at least 2:30 per game in a penalty-killing role. Ditto for the previous season, and of the ten that year, six skated more than 3:30 a game on the penalty kill.

Mike Green did not come into the league as a penalty killer, and it showed in his ice time. In his first three seasons, Green skated a total of 56:53 on the penalty kill, barely what he skates in total ice time over two games these days. That works out to an average of less than 20 seconds a game skating shorthanded in his first three seasons. It didn’t get a lot better in his next two seasons, as he failed to get a foothold in the top-100 in average shorthanded ice time. Here is how his first five seasons went and the neighbors he had in his ranking:

This year, things have changed. So far this season, Green ranks 48th in average shorthanded ice time (3:08/game), which is more than the likes of Duncan Keith or Zbynek Michalek. But more than the ice time numbers there is this. In the 13 games Green has played so far, the Caps have allowed seven power play goals. Green was on the ice for three of them, hardly an inordinate number given the ice time he is logging (second to Jeff Schultz in average shorthanded ice time). But in his absence for three games the Caps allowed three power play goals, all of them in a 4-1 loss in Boston on October 21st.  His presence makes a difference.

Green is still the big dog on F Street in terms of total ice time. He is sixth in the league in average total ice time and is skating almost four minutes more than second-place Jeff Schultz for the Caps. But the difference is this. His average ice time so far this year is precisely that which it was last year (25:28). But within that 25:28 average ice time number for this season he is skating less time at even strength (17:41 compared to 18:15 last season) and less time on the power play (4:39 compared to 5:03 last season). It is on the penalty kill, where he is skating almost exactly a minute of additional ice time a game, that is making up for the reductions elsewhere. And what is more, he is doing it effectively, if the Caps’ 87.0 percent penalty killing rate with Green in the lineup has any meaning.

And none of this added ice time on the penalty kill or improvement in effectiveness when skating shorthanded seems to have affected his offense. He is currently tied for ninth among defensemen in total points, although he has played in fewer games than any of the defensemen ahead of him. He is tied for third in goals scored, and he is tied for eighth in overall plus-minus. In his last seven games he is 4-6-10, plus-3. Although he was held off the score sheet last night, much of that might be attributed to his focus on the defensive end, where he was called upon to pay a lot of attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Steven Stamkos (ice time for each by period, thanks to timeonice.com):

Stamkos had a goal (not on the power play), and Martin St. Louis did have two assists, but the Caps won the game, 6-3.

There are still more than 60 games this season left to play, and there will be a lot of twists and turns along the way. But based on early returns, if the voters for the Norris Trophy are going to deny Mike Green the hardware this time around, they are going to have to do so without the “but he doesn’t play defense” argument to justify it.

A TWO-point night -- Game 16: Caps 6 - Lightning 3

Not tonight.

This was supposed to be the night when the Tampa Bay Lightning made a statement, that the upstarts from Florida would announce that the stranglehold the Washington Capitals had on the Southeast Division was at an end. Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Victor Hedman, Dan Ellis, and a supporting cast skated onto the Verizon Center ice determined to skate off having shown the Capitals and themselves that they were back to the competitive form they had when making the playoffs in four straight seasons from 2002-2003 through 2006-2007.

Yeah, well… not tonight.

Instead, the Caps skated off with a 6-3 win to keep their hold on the top spot in the league.  The Capitals got off to another disinterested start, giving up the first goal for the 12th time in 16 games and trailing at the first intermission for the 11th time in those 16 games, the result of a a goal by Teddy Purcell off a feed from Sean Bergenheim that eluded Brooks Laich, who got caught defending Purcell from the wrong side of his goaltender, giving Purcell an unimpeded path to the net to tap in the centering pass.

Tampa was up, 1-0. Ho-hum.

Well, it was really worse than that. Through 20 minutes the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Knuble registered a grand total of no shots on goal. One could almost hear the legendary play-by-play announcer Harry Doyle up in the booth saying disgustedly, “For the Lightning, one goal and 13 shots. For the Caps, no goals, and let’s see… the top line didn’t get a shot on goal. Is that all they got, no #@$&ing shots?”

It was all Coach Bruce Boudreau needed to see to inject some Vitamin A into the top line – Alexander Semin. The move actually helped out the second line right away as Mike Knuble followed up a Tom Poti goal with a sweet goal of his own, sweeping the puck off his backhand into the far side of the net while standing below the goalline, linemates Brooks Laich and Tomas Fleischmann getting the assists. That is how the second 20 minutes ended.

Ryan Malone tied it early in the third period on a Tampa Bay power play, snapping in a rebound of a long-range shot by Martin St. Louis for his second goal of the season and first since Game 2 of the season, a game-winner against Montreal. But then, the Vitamin A kicked in…

Alexander Semin restored the Caps’ lead 1:50 after Malone’s goal. Although Semin finished the play, don’t lose track of the fact that it started with an offensive zone faceoff win to start the power play. Brooks Laich fought off Nate Thompson to win the draw, and the result was that the Caps controlled the puck in the Lightning zone until Nicklas Backstrom could collect the puck along the right wing boards and sweep it to Semin just inside the edge of the right wing faceoff circle. Finding a soft spot between three Lightning defenders, Semin had time to take a step in and wrist the puck off and over the shoulder of goalie Dan Ellis to give the Caps the lead they would not relinquish.

Just over six minutes later it was Semin again, but once more, don’t lose track of how it came to be that Semin finished the play. Alex Ovechkin dug the puck out of the left wing corner and pushed it to Nicklas Backstrom circling behind the Lightning net. From Gretzky’s Neighborhood he found Semin at the top of the right wing circle. Semin one timed the pass with a rocket past Ellis to establish a two goal lead, and things looked a lot more comfortable.

Steven Stamkos put an end to that, though, when he led a 3-on-3 rush through the neutral zone. Stamkos slid the puck to Martin St. Louis, who skated into the Caps’ zone and dropped the puck for Dominc Moore. Moore swung wide and pushed the puck to the net as Mike Green and Tomas Fleischmann were closing on him. Jeff Schultz – the third man back -- lost Stamkos as a result of being tied up with St. Louis in front of the net. It allowed enough time for Stamkos to wrist the puck into the top of the net and make things interesting again at 4-3, Caps.

Alex Ovechkin put an end to the suspense barely two minutes later. One more time, it bears noting how the finish was made possible. It was actually Ovechkin who started the sequence. With Victor Hedman and Teddy Purcell closing on him at the Caps’ blue line, Ovechkin threw the puck out into space, out ahead of Alexander Semin, but softly enough where Semin could collect it with some room to work. Semin closed on the goalie, but had Hedman swat him with his stick in a desperate effort to interrupt the play. As he was getting whacked Semin sent the puck wide, but followed it into the corner. He circled out cleanly and found Ovechkin, who was calling for the puck. An instant later, an Ovechkin wrong-footed wrister found its way to the back of the net, and the Caps had their two goal lead back.

Semin completed the hat trick with an empty-net goal in the last minute, making it two hatters for the season (the other coming in a 4-3 overtime win over Atlanta three weeks ago). And with that, the Caps had a 6-3 win and restored the Southeast Division pecking order.

Other stuff:

-- Stamkos should never have scored his goal. No, not because goalie Michal Neuvirth made a bad play on his shot, but because at the other end of the ice, Pavel Kubina was taking a whack at Brooks Laich in the Caps’ offensive zone, hauling him down and freeing the puck to allow the Lightning to start the play that ended in Stamkos’ goal (screens from NHL.com)...

-- 44:17. That is how long it took for Chris Lee and Kevin Pollock to figure out that the rules permitted referees to call penalties on both teams in the same game. The penalty called on Dominic Moore was one of only two that would be called on Tampa Bay, the other one washed out when Ovechkin scored his goal.

-- Speaking of referees, it is now beyond tired that a player levels an opponent with a clean hit, has to endure one of the opponent’s teammates jumping him to answer to some sort of code, and then gets sent off with his dance partner for fighting without an instigator being called on the third man in the episode. Matt Bradley stepped up on Matt Lundin in the corner and leveled him cleanly, which inspired Adam Hall to jump Bradley. That lasted about six seconds, Bradley taking Hall to the ice to complete the daily double. The five minutes apiece we get, but where was the two minutes for Hall jumping into Bradley after the latter executed a clean hit? If the league wants to reduce the incidences of fighting, then there is not any lower hanging fruit to pluck than this situation. It has become reflexive. Hit…fight. Tack on the two – it would be a disincentive to fight while preserving the clean hit.

-- Mike Green can’t play defense. We know this. You know this. The whole of Canadian hockey media knows this. Aunt Fanny knows this. Even my idiot cousin Cheerless know this (well, maybe not).  OK, then explain this (click for larger view)…

…that would be the graphical representation of Mike Green’s and Steven Stamkos’ ice time by period (thanks to timeonice.com). There seems to be a lot of overlap there. And Stamkos had but the one goal (i.e., the one he should not have had if either referee had a working pair of eyes).

-- Two games, two goals. Kanoobie has a real spring in his step now that Mike Knuble seems to have shaken off the cloak of goallessness (that’s points in three straight games, too… ARF!).

-- The reconstituted top line was 4-8-12, plus-10. It might be like that dish you only make for the holidays, but when this line is cooking, it is the most dangerous line in hockey.

-- Starting with that hat trick game against Atlanta on October 23rd, Semin is now 10-6-16, plus-6 with two hat tricks, three power play goals, and a game winning goal (tonight) in nine games. And the oddest part of this run might be the fact that in four of the nine games he recorded only one shot on goal in each.

-- Speaking of hot, it might have escaped attention, but Nicklas Backstrom is 3-11-14, plus-9 in his last eight games. He might have flown under the radar a bit in this one, but he was smeared all over the score sheet in a good way… four assists (the first time he’s done that this year, making it the sixth time he recorded a four-assist game), plus-3, one shot, two hits, three takaways, two blocked shots.

-- The Caps now have three of the top five scorers in the league (pending the late games) – Ovechkin (9-14-23), Semin (12-9-21), and Backstrom (4-14-18).

-- The Caps won 40 of 71 draws. David Steckel had half of those faceoff wins, 20 wins in 29 tries. That pushed him up to fourth in the league in winning percentage. But there was Nicklas Backstrom winning 12 of 18, too. His 55.6 percent winning percentage for the season is impressive enough, but perhaps more impressive is the fact that he is sixth in draws taken. No longer a liability in the circle is he.

-- The record will show that Michal Neuvirth allowed three goals. But he stopped 38 of 41 shots faced (.923 save percentage), his high for workload so far this season. In fact this was only the fifth time in 15 appearances he faced more than 30 shots and the first time in seven appearances dating back to his facing 32 in a 4-3 overtime win over Atlanta on October 23rd. But hey, the Caps can’t play team defense.

-- The fourth line of Boyd Gordon, Matt Hendricks, and David Steckel did not record a shot attempt. Gordon left after skating only three shifts and 1:42 in ice time. He had what was described as an injury to his “lower extremities,” an injury that was also described as one he has dealt with before. Expected down time: a week.

-- How many nights does Alex Ovechkin get fewer than 18 minutes of ice time? Before last night it happened once in his previous 48 games (including playoffs).

-- We’re guessing no one reading this had Sean Bergenheim leading all players in shots on goal for this game. He had eight. Alexander Semin was the only Cap who had more than two (he had six).

In the end, it might not have been that elusive “full 60 minutes” fans and coaches like, but it was the sixth straight win for the Caps and the fifth game in that stretch in which the Caps scored at least five goals (ok, one of those included a Gimmick). In the six games they have outscored their opponents 30-17 (without the Gimmick), and the power play is 9-for-22 (40.9 percent). It would be nice to get more than the 3.67 power play chances the Caps have had in this run, and it certainly would be better to get more than the single (successful) chance they had tonight. And we’re not liking the fact that the penalty kill seems to have reverted to old ways – 18-for-23 (78.3 percent). But it’s hard to quibble with a 12-4-0 record (the Caps were 9-3-4 after 16 games last season).

Over the next four games the Caps play Atlantalo and Bufflanta... two against the Sabres and two against the Thrashers, who combined have only as many wins as do the Caps. It is a chance to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division and perhaps the conference, but for now, revel in the sweet smell of a six-game winning streak.