A(nother) NO-point night -- Game 10: Maple Leafs 3 - Capitals 2

“Chaos in the Capitals’ zone…”

That quote from television analyst Craig Laughlin pretty much sums up the Washington Capitals’ play last night as they dropped their eighth game in ten tries this season, a 3-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

And that’s too bad, in a way, because it was not as if the Maple Leafs were lights out dominating.  The Leafs managed to get only half of their 42 shot attempts on goal.  They did, however score three goals on their first 12 shots of the game due in part to the chaos of which Laughlin spoke and some less than inspiring goaltending from Michal Neuvirth.

The chaos part came on the Leafs’ first goal when Michal Neuvirth left the puck behind his own net for defenseman Tom Poti.  What Neuvirth did not communicate, or what Poti did not realize on his own, was that James van Riemsdyk was barreling down the ice in pursuit of the puck.  With the puck sitting between Neuvirth and Poti, van Riemsdyk pilfered it, sped around the back of the Caps’ net, and tucked the puck past the post before Neuvirth realized what happened, putting the Leafs up 1-0 ten minutes into the game.

More chaos ensued a couple of minutes later when the Caps got caught in some good old fashioned running around in their own zone.  We could tell a story here of the goal, but pictures being worth a thousand words, we won’t waste a hundred here.  We will just refer to you a post by Justin Bourne as part of his “Systems Analyst” series.

In what is perhaps the most concise and cogent analysis of a play you will read this year, he said of this picture…

“Maybe don’t defend like this.”

Well, consider this picture…

Over on the right is James van Riemsdyk…the goal scorer.  All we can add to the Bournian analysis is the word, “either.”  As in, “maybe don’t defend like this…either.”

Finding themselves behind the eight-ball again, the Caps halved the lead before the first intermission when Marcus Johansson scored his first goal of the season.  It was a deft skate-to-stick move upon receiving a pass from Tomas Kundratek on a power play… wait, WHAT?  Marcus Johansson and Tomas Kundratek?  On a power play? 

Toronto got their two-goal lead back mid-way through the second period when the impressively named Korbinan Holzer converted a cross-ice feed from Jean-Luc Picard… uh, Mark Fraser… and blasted a skipping, dipping, zipping slap shot past Michal Neuvirth.

Mike Ribeiro – the only Cap it seems to be showing up night in and night out so far – made things respectable with another Caps power play goal less than seven minutes into the third period.  But the Caps managed only seven more shots on goal, all turned away by Leafs goalie Ben Scrivens, who earned his second win of the season in Toronto’s 3-2 win over the Caps.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps managed only 12 shots at even strength over the first 47 minutes of the game.  They scored no goals. 

-- When Marcus Johansson is your best faceoff man for the night (2-for-2), that’s a problem.  No other Cap finished with a winning mark in the circle.  They were 9-for-23 in the offensive end, 5-for-13 in the defensive end.  If you don’t do the little things well, you don’t get a chance to do the big things at all.

-- John Carlson was on ice for another goal against, but on the other hand… four shots on goal (on eight attempts), three hits, two blocked shots.  As much as in any game this year he looked like a two-way defenseman.

-- Alex Ovechkin has ramped up his shots-on-goal rate, but his 0-for-4 last night puts him at 2-for-38 through ten games (5.3 percent).  That would rank him 55^th in the league… if he was a defenseman.  As it is, he ranks 194^th among forwards and 248^th among all skaters.  Oh, did we say he’s tied with Nicklas Backstrom?

-- The Caps had four players with three hits last night… Joel Ward, check… Jason Chimera, check… John Carlson, check… Mike Ribeiro, che-- …huh?

-- Toronto had almost as many hits as shots on goal for the game, and 18 hits is not a heavy volume.

-- Eric Fehr had a night that few will remember.  Seven minutes of ice time, a penalty, and an otherwise completely unmarked score sheet.

--  Toronto did not have a lot of shots on goal (21), but they did manage to spread things around.  There were 13 different skaters recording at least one shot on goal.  The Caps did the same with their 26 shots on goal, with 13 skaters getting at least one. 

-- Phil Kessel can’t buy a break as far as goal scoring goes, but he did have two assists and was plus-3 for the night to lead the team.  When life gives you lemons, make lemonade, boys.

-- When they went to the locker room down 2-1 last night, it was the fifth time in ten games the Caps have trailed at the first intermission.  They are 0-4-1 in those games.  They have led only once after 20 minutes, and they lost that game, too.

In the end, let’s face it.  It is now approaching a betting certainty that the playoff streak will end at five years.  The Caps are last in the Eastern Conference, four points out of a playoff spot and with seven teams to climb over to get to eighth place.  They have to travel to Pittsburgh for another rematch of games played in the last week, then they get what should be a reprieve with a home-and-home set against Florida.  Except, Florida is 2-0-1 in their last three games.  The Caps have five games between now and Presidents Day, four of them on the road.  You can do your own math to figure out if the Caps will have any meaningful games to play after that holiday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 10: Maple Leafs at Capitals, February 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s a new week, and a new opportunity for the Washington Capitals to get some traction, win some games, and make a go of this season.  They open their week by hosting a rematch against the Toronto Blue Jays, a team they fell to last Thursday night by a 3-2 score. 

Since that loss the Caps have split a pair of decisions, while the Maple Leafs have a pair of losses on their record.  For the Caps, there is nowhere to go but up.  They sit in 15^th and last place in the Eastern Conference, but only three points out of the top-eight. 

The trouble the Caps have and will have going forward, standings-wise, is that there might be only the three points separating themselves from eighth place, but there are also seven teams to climb over to get there.  Four of them have played fewer games and thus have more opportunities to add to their point totals.

The Leafs, on the other hand, have been bobbing back and forth across the playoff line.  Going into last night’s action they sat in eighth place.  However, after a 4-1 loss at home to the Carolina Hurricanes, they find themselves sitting in tenth place in the Eastern Conference by virtue of tie breakers (they are tied with Carolina in points for eighth place).

Here is how the teams match-up on the numbers…

1.  Games involving the Maple Leafs are matters of feast or famine in a sense.  Five of their games ended in one-goal decisions (a 3-2-0 record), while their other four games to date have ended in margins of three or more goals (a record of 1-3).

2. Scoring early does not seem to help in Toronto’s case.  The Maple Leafs are 2-3-0 when scoring first, and they are 1-3-0 when trailing at the first intermission.

3.  Only three teams have endured fewer shorthanded situations on the road than the 29 recorded so far by Toronto, and two of them have played in two fewer road games.

4.  The third period continues to be a problem for the Leafs (well, except for that Caps game last week).  With the two goals allowed to the Hurricanes last night, Toronto has now allowed 12 third period goals.  Only Winnipeg and the New York Islanders have allowed more (14 each).

5.  What a difference the Leafs have between their home and road power plays.  At home they have enjoyed 28 man advantages in five games, but have converted on only 7.1 percent of them.  Meanwhile, they have only 19 power plays in five road games, but they have converted on 21.0 percent of them.

1.  In nine games Washington has taken a lead to the first intermission once… and they lost that game, 3-2, to Ottawa on January 29th.

2.  The Caps have led after two periods three times… and they lost two of those games.

3.  The Caps are 0-3-1 when trailing after one period, 0-3-1 when trailing after two periods.  They can’t hold a lead, and they don’t make comebacks.  That’s why they’re 2-6-1, kids.

4.  One thing they are at home… sloppy.  They have 68 giveaways against only 46 takeaways.  While there is a subjective element to that statistic (each being essentially an “official scorer” ruling, much like hits), it has the ring of truth.

5.  Oh, gone are the days of the Greatest Show on Ice.  The Caps have had three games end in three or more goal margins… they lost them all.  No team has a worse record in such games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto:  Matt Frattin

Matt Frattin was a fourth-round draft pick in the 2007 entry draft.  He is part of a rather fruitful draft in terms of what the Leafs selected late.  Defenseman Carl Gunnarsson was selected in the seventh round (194^th overall) in that draft as well.  Frattin has emerged as a go-to goal scorer for the Leafs.  He has four goals in his last four games, two of them game-winners including his goal against the Caps on January 31^st in a 3-2 Toronto win.  His five goals so far is already within a hat-trick’s striking distance of his career high in goals (eight) set last season in 56 games.  That was his only game against the Caps to date in his career.

Washington:  Mike Green

Mike Green has 44 power play goals in his last 306 regular season games with the Capitals.  None of them have come in the nine games he has played to date this season despite being second in the league in average power play time on ice per game (5:52).  The Caps’ power play is a work in progress, and there is no role that requires as much decision-making as that which Green plays at the top of the 1-3-1.  But if the Caps are to climb into the upper half of the power play rankings (they currently rank 17^th), Green will have to be heard from.

Keys:

1.  Fewer hills, fewer valleys.  The Caps have had stretches this year when they looked like a very good hockey team.  Unfortunately, they have interspersed those occasions with times when they looked as if they couldn’t find their backsides with a map and a flashlight.  They need to find a happy consistency.

2.  Five is a lucky number.  The Caps have yet to record more than one power play goal in a game this season.  They have only two games in which they killed off all of their shorthanded situations.  But what is killing them as much as anything is this number: 0.70.  That is their ratio of goals scored at five-on-five to goals against.  They have been outscored at 5-on-5 by a 20-14 margin.  Toronto is almost as bad with a 0.83 ratio.  This has to be exploited by the Caps.

3.  Save like ya mean it.  Whoever gets the call in goal tonight, he does not have a save percentage above .900.  Michal Neuvirth is at .899, and Braden Holtby is at .862.  That kind of netminding is only going to fuel rumors of Roberto Luongo coming to Washington.  More urgently, it is a formula for ending the night at 2-7-1.  Both of these guys have to do better.

In the end, the Caps are the strongest team in the Eastern Conference.  They are holding the other 14 teams up in the standings.  OK, that’s a bad joke.  Well, so is the Caps’ record so far.  We’ll stop telling bad jokes when they start winning.

Capitals 4 – Maple Leafs 2

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 2 (January 28 - February 3)

Week 2 of the NHL season is in the books, and if the 2013 season for the Washington Capitals is like a semester’s worth of time trying to learn a new subject, then in Hockey 101, “Philosophy and Principles of Oates Systems,” the students need to pick up the pace of performance in grasping the subject.  Let’s take a look at the week that was…

Record: 1-3-0

Week 2 was not an improvement on Week 1.  In fact, if anything it was a step backward.  The Caps blew two leads, and with them the games, couldn’t keep pace with the Pittsburgh Penguins over the last 37 minutes of another game (getting outscored, 4-1, in a 6-3 loss), and hung on for their only win of the week against a team that was beat up and struggling themselves.  The rule of thumb in managing home and away games is that to be successful a team has to rule at home and break even on the road.  The Caps are turning this maxim on its head.  Their 1-1-0 week at home left them 2-2-0 at home, and their oh-fer in Ontario left them 0-4-1 on the road.  As Cheerless might say, “them’s lottery-makin’ recipes right there.”

Offense: 2.50/game (season: 2.33/rank: T-26^th)

The Caps finished the week tied in scoring offense with the only team they defeated for the week, the Philadelphia Flyers.  Troy Brouwer – yes, Troy Brouwer – led the Caps in goals for the week with two.  Eight other Caps had one.  Well, at least there was balance.  Nicklas Backstrom led the team in points with a 1-4-5 week with Mike Ribeiro right behind at 1-3-4.  One of the problems the Caps are having is not generating much in the way of shots on goal.  They averaged just over 26 shots on goal for the week, but that included a 33-shot effort against Ottawa in a 3-2 loss to open the week.

Defense: 3.50/game (season: 3.67/rank: T-26^th)

If the word “unacceptable” is one that is tortured to within an inch of its life by this team, the word applies to this aspect of the Caps’ game.  Giving up 3.5 goals a game to four teams, only one of which ranks in the top third of the league in scoring offense (Pittsburgh, and if they put up three instead of six against the Caps on Sunday, they would not be in the top ten), two of which are in the bottom half of the league scoring offense rankings…well, that’s “unacceptable.”  The problem is letting games getting away from them after reasonably decent starts.  The Caps allowed only three first period goals in the four games.  But five second period goals and six third period goals killed them.  They can do well for 20 minutes, but in a 60 minute game too many lapses are creeping in as the clock ticks.

Goaltending: GAA: 3.53/SV: .887

This week was a tale of two goaltenders.  Michal Neuvrith played reasonably well with a 3.05 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage.  His problem was a defense in front of him that left too much for him to do (67 shots faced in the two games).  He wilted late in games, allowing four goals on 28 shots (.857 save percentage) in his two third periods of work this week.  Braden Holtby had the last two games of the week and did not do enough to challenge Neuvirth as the number one goalie for the moment.  He got the only win of the week, but his 4.00 GAA and .860 save percentage did not advance his cause much.

Power Play: 2-14 / 14.3 percent (season: 16.2 percent / rank: 18^th)

The week’s numbers are worse than they look.  The Caps were 0-for-5 on first period power plays for the week, failing to cash in on opportunities to put opponents back on their heels.  For the week they got a blast from the past in an Alex Ovechkin power play goal (giving the Caps a second period lead against Toronto they would later lose) and an extra-man tally by Mike Ribeiro in a game that was pretty much lost by the time he scored it three minutes into what was a 5-2 game that became a 6-3 loss to Pittsburgh.  If the Caps’ power play is the proverbial “work in progress,” the “progress” part is not happening yet.

Penalty Killing:  14-18 / 77.8 percent (season: 72.7 percent / rank: 25^th)

It is not bad enough that the Caps are inefficient on the penalty kill (evidenced by its rank), but the Caps have faced the second highest number of shorthanded situations, only one fewer (44) than Dallas.  The 18 shorthanded situations this week left the Caps with little chance to establish any rhythm or continuity at the other end of the ice.  To make matters worse, the Caps allowed another 5-on-3 power play goal, making it four on the year, tops (or bottoms) in the league.  We should also point out that the Caps have allowed 12 power play goals this season (worst in the league); John Carlson has been on the ice for ten of them (worst in the league).

Paying the Price: 79 hits / 70 blocked shots (rank: 22^nd / 6^th)

It is that blocked shots number that jumps off the page.  The Caps allowed 124 shots on goal this week and blocked only 70.  It is leaving goaltenders with too much to do in the way of facing shots than is healthy for a team’s standing in the conference. 

Faceoffs:  129-for-275 / 46.9 percent (season: 48.5 percent / rank: T-20^th)

The Caps were awful in the offensive zone on faceoffs.  A 15-for-27 effort against the Penguins only salvaged a portion of the week in that regard.  Overall they were 36-for-92 in the attacking end (39.1 percent).  The centers on the top two lines – Mike Ribeiro and Nicklas Backstrom – were a combined 20-for-51 (39.2 percent), Ribiero going 7-for-24 all by himself (29.2 percent). It was a lousy week on the dot.

Turnovers: minus-5

The Caps were charged with 54 giveaways for the week, and it got worse from game to game.  While true that every rink has its own interpretation of what constitutes giveaways and takeaways, going from four to 12 to 16 to 22 is not the sort of progression one hopes for.  Even just the optics, the Caps did not look to be especially responsible with the puck.

In the end...

This team looks an awful lot (“awful” being the operative term here) like the 2005-2006 team that started 3-6-0 in their first nine games and that finished 29-41-12.  Even the next edition of the Caps – the 2006-2007 team – at least started the season 3-2-4 in their first nine game before succumbing to a 28-40-14 record. 

On paper, this team is vastly better than either of those teams coming out of the 2004-2005 lockout, but it is not playing better.  And if the threshold for making the playoffs in the abbreviated 48-game season is 54 points (the 48-game equivalent of last year’s threshold), then this team needs to play like a 103-point team (the pace they would need to set over their last 39 games) to get there. 

Based on this week’s results, this is not that team.

A NO-point afternoon -- Game 9: Penguins 6 - Capitals 3

Remember that Ottawa Senators game when the Washington Capitals played well for 38 minutes, then gave up three straight goals to lose, 3-2?

Well, here we are again.  For 24 minutes the Caps played the Pittsburgh Penguins even, holding the Atlantic Division leaders to a 2-2 stalemate.  Yeah well, then the Penguins scored goals 37 seconds apart and never looked back in a 6-3 win this afternoon over the Caps.

And once more we have the Caps playing well in fits and starts, but not stringing nearly enough of those instances together for nearly enough time to win decisions against competent opponents.  How bad was it?..Let’s just go right to…

Other stuff…

-- The Penguins got production out of the guys who have to produce.  Chris Kunitz got a hat trick, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin combined for five assists.  Meanwhile… Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom combined for two assists.  One assist came on a fluke goal (Backstrom’s on the goal John Carlson scored off the stanchion along the side glass), the other came when the outcome was pretty much settled (Ovechkin on Mike Ribeiro’s goal to cut a three goal lead to two in the third period).

-- The Caps had almost as many shots blocked (22) as on goal (24)

-- 14 skaters and goalie Braden Holtby were charged with giveaways.

-- Someone named Robert Bortuzzo had four blocked shots for the Penguins…the entire defense for the Caps had four.

-- The Caps were 1-for-3 on penalty kills.  That makes four times in nine games they have allowed at least two power play goals.

-- The Penguins had two goals in the first period and three in the third. That makes seven periods in 27 regulation periods of hockey in which the Caps have allowed two or more goals.  They have allowed two or more goals in a period in five games this season and lost them all in regulation.

-- Braden Holtby has a save percentage of .854 in the first period of games this season.  That is not a lot worse than his .862 save percentage overall, but it is still awful.  Huie cannot keep starting behind the eight ball like this (he has allowed two goal in the first period in three of his four appearances), or he will not be starting much of anything going forward.

-- John Carlson was on the ice for three goals against this afternoon.  That makes 20 goals against while on ice; no player in the league has been on ice for more goals against.  But here is the weird thing.  He is only a minus-2.  What’s the deal?  Well, he has been on ice for 10 of the 12 power play goals scored against the Caps.

-- Mike Ribeiro continues to be the engine that drives what passes for the Caps offense at the moment.  He had a goal and an assist, but as much as that, four other Caps (Mike Green, Wojtek Wolski, Troy Brouwer, and Alex Ovechkin) shared points on scoring plays in which Ribeiro was involved.

-- Penalties, penalties.  We say that twice because the Caps now lead the league in 5-on-3 power play goals scored against (four).  Today, the Penguins got theirs when the Caps blew off frustration with two penalties late.  They were okay to that point, with only a tripping call to Wolski being called against the Caps.

In the end, the Caps cannot rely on getting odd goals off the stanchion supporting the glass on the side wall (as John Carlson did this afternoon) for offense, and they can’t be giving up power play goals by the pallet load.  They have to play something resembling real hockey.  And they have had a difficult time doing just that.  Today was merely a microcosm of their season, a few good stretches and too many and too long poor ones.  Just like the season so far in which the Caps have failed to put together consecutive wins.

Nine games in, the Caps are not a playoff team.  If 54 points is the threshold for making the playoffs this season (the 48-game equivalent of what last season’s threshold was in teh Eastern Conference), the Caps need 49 points in 39 games to get there.  That is a 103-point pace over 82 games.  Does this team look like a 103-point team?

In eight and a half years the Caps have gone from having the first overall draft pick, to the growing pains of a young team, to restored competitiveness, to being in the conversation of who are legitimate contenders for a Stanley Cup, to struggling to making the playoffs, to the look of a lottery team that could get the number one overall pick.

The Caps look at the moment to be headed back to where they started.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 9: Penguins at Capitals, February 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well guys, it’s Super Bowl Sunday, and you know what that means…

“Six-hour pregame shows…”

“Commercials!”

No, hockey.

“What does hockey have to do with football?”

“Or commercials?”

Well, not much, except the Caps have a bit of a tradition of playing on Super Bowl Sunday.

“Like the Detroit Lions playing football on Thanksgiving?”

Yeah, something like that.

“Will there be commercials?”

Probably, Cheerless, but not the…

“Like that Darth Vader one a couple of years ago?…that was funny.”   

No, probably not…

“Or like that one with the frogs?  Beer and frogs…now that’s entertainment.”  

I don’t think so…

“Well, maybe at least we’ll have some decent snacks for the game.”

Just so it's not beer and fr... What in heaven’s name is THAT?  It looks like…jerky, but that’s not beef.

“Naw…penguin jerky”

It’s Super Bowl Sunday…Capitals…Penguins.  We don’t need no steenking football.

“Or commercials.”

“Or that jerky…”

No argument there, Fearless, but let’s get to it.  Here is how the Caps and Pens compare in their numbers to date…

1.  Despite their 5-3-0 record, the Penguins are struggling with consistency.  Two wins followed by two losses, a win, and a loss.  But they do have wins in their last two decisions, beating the Rangers and Devils by a combined 8-1 margin.

2.  Pittsburgh has mastered the fast start.  The Penguins have scored the first goal in five of their eight games played so far, and they have outscored their opponents by a 10-2 margin in the first period of those games.  The second period?  A different story… they have been outscored by a 12-4 margin.

3.  Close games have not been a part of the Penguin season to date.  Only Florida has more games ending in three-or-more goal decisions than the five recorded by Pittsburgh through eight games (a 2-3 record).

4.  Part of the Penguins game is playing in the other team’s end most of the time.  One reflection of this is their shots on goal.  In seven of eight games they have outshot their opponents, posting a 4-3-0 record in those games.

5.  Matt Cooke leading a team in minor penalties?  Not news.  Evegeni Malkin leading the team?  Not what one would expect.  But there is Malkin, tied with Cooke for the team lead in minor penalties and sitting all by himself atop the team’s penalty minute list.

1.  The Caps have scored first in three of their eight games.  What they haven’t done is get their top guys off fast. The first goal scorers are Joel Ward, Matt Hendricks, and Troy Brouwer.

2.  Speaking of Brouwer, he does not have a point in seven career games against the Penguins, but he does lead the Caps in home goals so far (ok, it’s only two).

3.  Eric Fehr has more goals against the Penguins (five in 14 career games) than he does against any other team in the league, except Tampa Bay (also five goals, but in 22 games).  Of course, the two memorable ones came outdoors in the 2011 Winter Classic.  He has only two goals in his last 55 regular season games, so perhaps this is an opponent against which he can get well.

4.  Jason Chimera does not have a goal yet this season, but he is charting a course for a career high in assists.  He has five in eight games so far, which might not seem like a lot, but his career high in helpers is only 21, set in the 2006-2007 season with Columbus.

5.  One hopes that one of Mathieu Perreault or Marcus Johansson (or both, for that matter) will grab a regular spot in the lineup by the throat.  At the moment, neither is looking to do so.  They have combined for no points and only seven shots on goal in a total combined ice time of 125:26.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Tomas Vokoun

Marc-Andre Fleury having earned the win against the New Jersey Devils yesterday, it is reasonable to assume that former Capital Tomas Vokoun will get a chance to face the team for which he tended goal last season.  And his are not your typical backup goaltender numbers.  In four appearances so far this season Vokoun is 2-1-1, 1.81, .940 with one shutout.  And Vokoun has a history against the Caps, most of being the product of his time spent with the Florida Panthers.  He has a modest win-loss record against the Caps (10-12-1), and his goals-against average is not especially impressive (2.48).  But he has played on bad teams that gave up a lot of shots along the way.  His career save percentage against the Caps is .925.  Facing a lot of shots has not been a problem for him with the Penguins so far; he has faced only 100 shots in 199 minutes.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom announced his arrival for the 2013 season in the 3-2 win over the Flyers on Friday night with a goal and an assist.  Now he gets to face a Penguins team against which he has had considerable success.  For example, did you know that he has more assists against Pittsburgh (23 in 18 games) than Sidney Crosby has against the Caps (22 in 22 games)?  And Backstrom is starting to establish a consistency in his offensive game.  He has points in his last three games (1-3-4).  If Troy Brouwer gets his first career goal against the Pens, Backstrom is probably going to be a part of it.

Keys:

1.  Sunday is Special.  Only two teams have faced more shorthanded situations than the 41 faced by the Caps, and two of those teams (Philadelphia and Dallas) have played in one more game.  On the other hand, only six teams have had fewer shorthanded situations to deal with than the Penguins.  What is more, the Caps have had fewer power play opportunities than their opponent in five of eight games, going 0-5-0 in those games.  The Caps cannot afford to be giving up more power play chances than they get.

2.  Neal Repeal.  James Neal has five goals in four games.  The Penguins are 4-0-0 in those games.  The Pens are 1-3-0 when Neal doesn’t have a goal.  Stop Neal, stop the Penguins.

3.  Field position isn’t just for football.  The Penguins have not been outshot in any game this season.  After splitting 54 shots with Philadelphia in the season opener the Penguins have outshot each of their last seven opponents.  This is one of the core elements in the way Pittsburgh plays.  The Caps cannot afford to have the ice tilted in their direction.

In the end, this is probably the Capitals’ stiffest test so far this season, at least on paper.  But the Penguins are hardly a team the Caps fear, either.  Washington is 13-2-3 against Pittsburgh in their last 18 regular season meetings dating back to January 2008.  This will be the Penguins’ only visit to Washington this season (unless the teams meet in the playoffs), and it would be nice if the Caps made a statement.  It also would be nice if they grabbed a couple of points to move up a few spots in the standings.  Oh heck, it's just always nice beating Pittsburgh.

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 8: Capitals 3 - Flyers 2

The beer is colder, and the night air crisper after a win, isn’t it?

And so they were for the Washington Capitals and their fans last night as the home team broke a two-game losing streak and posted their second straight home win with a 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.

The game started like a Caps-Flyers game, the teams trading territory, attitude, and penalties (if not goals) in the first 20 minutes.  The key moment came late in the period.  Nicklas Backstrom sent a pass from the right point to John Erskine manning the left side.  The puck eluded Erskine, which gave Flyer Wayne Simmonds an opportunity to pounce on a loose puck.  Erskine stepped up to try and poke the puck in deep, but as he was about to do so Simmonds arrived.

Here was one of those moments that one can dissect frame-by-frame for hours afterward, but in the moment you have two players – one instinctively knows that the play can go the other way and present a scoring opportunity for the other team, the other player sees that opportunity and focuses only on the puck.  Erskine was poking at the puck with his left arm, but while doing so he brought his right elbow up.  Simmonds was trying to poke the puck past Erskine to effect what could be a breakaway in the other direction, but while doing so could not see the elbow now aimed at his face.

Erskine elbowed Simmonds in the head.  The video is clear on this.  Simmonds went to the ice bleeding, but no penalty was called.  It matters not.  One would think it a betting certainty that Erskine is going to be getting a call from the league and that Brendan Shanahan is going to be making a video to announce a suspension.  It is merited.  We do not necessarily agree with the Philadelphia game announcers, who seemed to think the elbow was intentional.  We think Erskine had the intention of impeding Simmonds attempt to get to the puck, and his elbow became the instrument of that action; that is different from saying he intentionally elbowed Simmonds, but that will not matter in the case of how to deal with this incident.  If we had to wager, we would guess Erskine will get three games, courtesy of the Department of Player Safety.

After all that (including the ensuing fight between Matt Hendricks and Zac Rinaldo) the clubs went to the locker room scoreless after 20 minutes.  The second period, while less eventful from a physical point of view, was just as silent on the matter of scoring until eight minutes had passed.  The Caps got caught in two ways on the play.  First, Karl Alzner got tangled up with Tye McGinn behind the Caps’ net.  When Danny Briere joined in, the Flyers had advantages of numbers on the puck. 

Meanwhile, Mike Green and goalie Braden Holtby both were peeking at what was going on behind the net.  This gave Bruno Gervais an opportunity to find a soft spot behind Green, and when Briere slid the puck out from behind the net, Gervais had a tap in to open the scoring.  But rewind a moment and look at the play just before the puck came out to Gervais…

(screen capture from NHL.com/Comcast)

Gervais, the goal scorer, is circled.  He jumped in all the way from the right point, tapping his stick frantically in a call for the puck.  Where is the back-side support coming from on defense?  That’s the Ribeiro-Ovechkin-Wolski line getting a good view of the play.

The Flyers returned the favor six minutes later.  And this is the kind of thing that happens in the blink of an eye that is one of the priceless ironies in sports.  Sean Couturier was carrying the puck through the neutral zone and was approaching the Capitals’ blue line with the Caps’ John Carlson in his path. Here they were, the two players in the league who led all in goals scored against while on ice.  Something was bound to happen.  It did.  Couturier lost control of the puck ahead of him, and his timing could not have been worse.  Carlson was there to take advantage of the play just as the Flyers were changing out players and as Jay Beagle was coming off the ice in favor of Nicklas Backstrom for the Caps.  Carlson saw the change and flipped the puck into open space where Backstrom was the only one back to get it.  Backstrom had nothing but clear ice in front of him, and he finished the play by roofing a backhand over goalie Ilya Bryzgalov to tie the game.

The Caps jumped on the Flyers in the third period with a pair of goals, the first of which came on a play one would normally have associated with an Alex Ovechkin finish.  The play, though, was the product as much of Mike Green as of the goal scorer -- Troy Brouwer.  Green received the puck from Backstrom at the right point, where he spied Brouwer lurking in the left wing circle (after being plastered into the glass only moments before).  Green sent a long pass through the middle and all the way to Brouwer, who was wide open at the bottom of the left wing circle.  Brouwer had time to pick a hole, and he did, wristing the puck over Bryzgalov’s right shoulder on the short side to give the Caps the lead.

Wojtek Wolski scored what would be the game winner almost three minutes later.  It was a simple enough and, for the Flyers, a boneheaded enough play.  The faceoff was outside the Caps’ zone, Mike Ribeiro and Claude Giroux facing one another.  Giroux won the draw back to defenseman Luke Schenn, who promptly lost the puck in his skates.  Wolski, who by this time skated around Danny Briere, poked the puck out from under Schenn’s skates and jumped past the flat-footed Flyer.  It was his turn to have nothing but clear ice in front of him, and he made good use of the opportunity, backhanding the puck through Bryzgalov to give the Caps some insurance.

The insurance came in handy when Brayden Schenn (“relation,” says Joe Beninati) scored just past the halfway point of the period, but that was as close as the Flyers would get as the Caps broke the third period spell and skated off a 3-2 winner.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps slammed the door after the Schenn goal that brought it to 3-2.  The Flyers had only one more shot on goal in the last 9:30.

--  Alex Ovechkin has been in a slump.  This is not news to anyone.  Against the Flyers, though, he had far more jump in his game.  He finished without a point, but he had seven shots (12 attempts), a hit, and a blocked shot in 22 minutes.  If he has five games like this, he probably has points in four of them.

-- Chemistry is funny.  Mike Ribeiro and Alex Ovechkin did not appear to have it, at least early last night.  But sometimes a chemical reaction needs a catalyst.  Wojtek Wolski was that, at least last night.  This line should stay intact for a few games to see what unfolds.

--  Claude Giroux took 31 of the game’s 69 faceoffs (winning 20).  He was scraping his stick back on draws so often it almost looked like he was raking leaves out there.

-- Nicklas Backstrom looked like “Nicklas Backstrom,” at last. In 22 minutes and change he was 1-1-2, plus-2, had five shots on goal (as many as he recorded in the previous five games combined and the most he had in a regular season game since recording seven in a 2-0 win over Montreal on March 26, 2011), two takeaways, two blocked shots, and 10 wins in 19 faceoffs.

-- A bit lost in this effort was the solid effort by Braden Holtby.  He could not be faulted on either goal.  He might have benefitted from a bit better defense on the first one, and on the second Flyer goal, Matt Read’s initial shot hit both the crossbar and the far post before it dropped right at Brayden Schenn’s feet for the tap-in.

-- Boy I wish the Caps would be better at offensive zone draws.  They were 8-for-24 in this one.

-- John Carlson almost escaped without being on ice for a goal against (he and Couturier are still tied for the league lead, with Tobias Enstrom of Winnipeg), but he was on for the Schenn goal.  He did have five blocked shots, though, and looked stronger in his own end than in most games to date.

-- In the revolving door of “prospect center,” it was Marcus Johansson on ice (Mathieu Perreault had a seat).  In almost 18 minutes Johansson had no points, one shot attempt (blocked), a takeaway, a blocked shot, and he won two of three draws.  A bit of a “meh” night.

In the end, you can’t win three before you win two.  That’s a way of saying that the Caps are in a position where they have to take these things game by game.  They played a good game.  However, that needs to be tempered by the realization the uniforms might have been orange and black, but these Flyers aren’t playing like “The Flyers.”  Still, two points is two points, and it is the Caps who earned them, pushing the Flyers to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings and crawling to within three points of the top-eight. 

One of those teams three points ahead of them (pending their game this afternoon against New Jersey) is their next opponent, the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Caps are halfway to a pleasant winter weekend.  We will see if they can build on this.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 8: Flyers at Capitals, February 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it’s Friday, it must the back of a back-to-back.  A week after the Caps closed their first back-to-back set of the 2013 season, they get to do it again.  This time their opponent in the second half of the set is the Philadelphia Flyers.

The 13^th place Philadelphia Flyers…

The last-place-in-the-Atlantic Division Philadelphia Flyers…

The Philadelphia Flyers that have a goal by someone named Tye McGinn (who probably is nicknamed “Shootout”), but none from Scott Hartnell, Max Talbot, or Danny Briere.

Those Philadelphia Flyers.

The Flyers come to Washington for the last of a four-game road trip on which they are already 1-2-0.  The trip started promising enough with a 7-1 win over Florida.  But hey, it was Florida, the Panthers hanging on to the worst record in the league at the moment (correction...the "second" worst record; the Caps saw to that last night).  The Flyers followed up the win with losses to Tampa Bay (5-1) and the New York Rangers (2-1).  Their 2-5-0 record is their worst seven-game start since opening the season with a 1-6-1 record in the 2006-2007 season.

It makes for an interesting matchup in that going into Thursday night’s games the Caps and Flyers combined for a goal total only equal to that of the San Jose Sharks.  And the Sharks were only second in the league in scoring offense to Tampa Bay.

The Flyers might be good for what ails the Caps, and not just because the Flyers are struggling at the moment.  Since the lockout the Caps are 15-9-4 against the Orange and Black and have been on the losing end of a season series only twice in the last seven years.  The odd thing about that record, though, is that the Caps are only 7-6-1 at home, while posting an 8-3-3 in Philadelphia.  Last year the Caps won the season series opener in Philly but dropped the next three games, including a Gimmick loss in the series finale on Flyer ice.

Here is how the teams match up in the tale of the tape…

1.  It’s early, yeah, but even seven games in Claude Giroux has twice as many penalty minutes (four) as points (two)?    He is another guy who isn’t getting his shots. Last year he has 28 goals on 242 shots on goal in 77 games (3.14 shots per game).  So far, just 12 shots in seven games (1.71).

2.  From the “sophomore jinx” file, Sean Couturier scored 13 goals in 77 games for the Flyers last year.  He has been on the ice for 16 goals against in seven games this year, most in the league at any position (ok, he’s tied with John Carlson).

3.  The Flyers have already lost three games by at least three goals.  They had only eight in 82 games last year and didn’t suffer their third such loss until Game 31 of the 2011-2012 season.

4.  Part of the problem is that the Flyers have trailed at the first intermission in five games and lost them all.

5.  The Flyers still aren’t bashful, though.  Their 125 hits on the road led the league going into Thursday night’s games, and no team had taken more minor penalties (42).

1.  283 players have more even strength goals than does Alex Ovechkin, including (in no particular order): Ryan Garbutt, Tomas Vincour, Jake Muzzin, Lennart Petrell…

2.  The Caps have allowed eight third period goals in seven games.  Only five teams have allowed more (Toronto  being one of them…but none last night), but half of them have come in the last two games.

…Brandon Yip, Mark Letestu, Viktor Stalberg, Brendan Gallagher (we're not making these names up)…

3.  The Caps have a total of 45 penalties through seven games (40 minors).  They are on a pace for 308 (274 minors).  Last season in 82 games they had a total of 326 (287).  Someone didn’t get an NHL rulebook for Christmas.

…Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Taylor Pyatt, Damien Brunner, John Mitchell…

4.  Only two teams have spent more time killing penalties than have the Caps so far.  Their total of 57:59 in penalty killing time is about 14 percent of all the minutes they have skated thus far, about the equivalent of an entire game.

…Cam Atkinson, Aaron Volpatti, Grant Clitsome, Casey Cizikas…

5.  What was once (and what might be once more) the Caps’ top line of Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer, and Alex Ovechkin rank 1-2-3 among Caps forwards in goals against on ice (9, 8, and 7, respectively).  They have a total of four goals scored among them (Ovechkin and Brouwer with a pair each).

…Tye McGinn, Kyle Palmieri, Keith Aulie, Jay McClement…

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Ilya Bryzgalov

Lost in the Flyers’ early season stumbles is the fact that Ilya Bryzgalov is not playing badly in goal.  After his adventurous post season last spring (5-6, 3.46, .882) one might have wondered if there wouldn’t be a hangover coming into this season.  However, while his win-loss record is only 2-4-0 he does have a 2.19 goals against average and a .924 save percentage. 

Washington:  Braden Holtby

One would think that Braden Holtby will get his first chance in net tonight since giving up four goals on 39 shots in a 4-2 loss in the Caps’ home opener on January 22^nd.  He has a limited resume against the Flyers, only two career appearances – a 3-2 overtime win on November 7, 2010 and a 2-1 Gimmick loss on March 22, 2012.  He has a goals against average of 1.43 and a save percentage of .943 in those two appearances.  The Caps need someone to stop the bleeding.  Holtby might be that guy.

Keys:

1.  First things first.  The Flyers are 0-4-0 when allowing the first goal, 0-5-0 when trailing at the end of the first period.  Do the math.

2.  Read and react.  Matt Read probably does not impress the casual hockey fan, but there he is leading the Flyers in goals scored.  Granted, it is not many (three), but he did have 24 goals last year.  He might have been an undrafted free agent, but attention must be paid.

3.  Stop sucking!  That pretty much explains itself.

In the end, this weekend was probably circled by Caps fans as soon as the 2013 schedule came out – home games with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in the space of about 40 hours.  Caps fans might have yearned for a couple of wins in these games but perhaps did not think them necessary.  One might have thought that the Caps would bank wins against Winnipeg, or Montreal, or Toronto to give them a cushion against the sturdier sort of challenge the Flyers and Penguins might provide.

Well, forget that.

These are now games the Caps have to win.  A 1-7-1 record heading into next week is (to abuse a word the Caps seem to torture) “unacceptable.”  Lose these games, and the Caps can start surfing the net for tee times in May. 

Capitals 3 – Flyers 1