A TWO-point night -- Game 25: Capitals 2 - Hurricanes 1

It might not have been the most thrilling of contests, but a win is thrilling enough these days for the Washington Capitals, who defeated the Carolina Hurricanes last night, 2-1. The win ended a two-game losing streak for the Caps and brought Washington’s divisional record to 5-1-1, an important item to note since this game opened a stretch in which the Caps will play eight divisional rivals over a 12-game span.

The game started fast enough when the Caps scored in the third minute. The scoring play started when Michal Jordan failed to secure a harmless looking pass from Ron Hainsey at the top of the offensive zone. With the puck lying loose outside the reach of Jordan’s stick, Jason Chimera jumped up and forced the puck out into the neutral zone. Chimera beat Jordan to the loose biscuit and headed off on a semi-breakaway. His shot was stopped by goalie Anton Khudobin, but the rebound was left in the slot. Jay Beagle was all alone coming down the middle and beat Khudobin to the puck, one-handing it past the diving goalie and into the net to give the Caps a 1-0 lead with just 2:19 gone.

That is how the game remained for the next 41 minutes. In the fourth minute of the third period, Alexander Semin took a cross-ice feed from Jay Harrison, cut through the slot against the grain of the play and lifted a backhand over goalie Braden Holtby's shouler and under the crossbar to tie the game 3:19 into the third period.

As the clock was winding down to the four-minutes left to play mark, Eric Fehr broke the tie.  The scoring play started when Fehr poked the puck off Riley Nash’s stick just inside the Carolina blue line.  After gathering up the biscuit, Fehr skated in, faked once to his left, then snapped a forehand over Khudobin’s left pad for what would be the game winning goal in the 2-1 decision.

Other stuff…

-- It took long enough.  The 2-1 win in regulation was the first time since March 11, 2012 that the Caps won a decision in regulation time when scoring two or fewer goals.  It broke a string of 51 52 straight losses (regulation decisions only) when scoring two or fewer goals.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s points streak came to an end at six games.

-- The Capitals turned the tables on the Hurricanes in one important respect.  Carolina came into the game having faced the fewest shorthanded situations at home in the league.  The Caps had only two power plays, coming up empty on both of them.  On the other side, the Caps faced no shorthanded situations, a godsend for a club struggling on the penalty kill.  It was the second time this season that the Caps did not face a shorthanded situation, the other coming in the Caps’ 3-2 win in Colorado on November 20th.

-- About that power play, though.  The Caps, with only two man advantages in this game, have not had more than three power plays in nine straight games.  They are 5-for-15 (33.3 percent) in that span, but having allowed eight power play goals in that span, the efficiency of the power play has been more than offset.

-- Fehr’s game-winning goal broke a six-game string without a goal.  Coincidentally, his last goal was also a game-winner in a 2-1 overtime win over Arizona on November 18th.

-- With the game in the balance in the seventh minute of the third period, Braden Holtby’s right-pad save on a shot by Elias Lindholm from the inside edge of the left wing faceoff circle might have been the most important play of the game for the Caps.

-- Every Capital had a shot on goal in this game except Brooks Orpik and Nate Schmidt.  Orpik had four attempts blocked, while Schmidt had three of his blocked.

-- Orpik returned the favor.  His seven blocked shots led all players on both teams.  Karl Alzner had five more for the Caps.

-- Holtby shook off a couple of off outings to stop 29 of 30 shots.  In his last 11 appearances he is 6-4-1, 2.22, .926.

-- Alex Ovechkin skated 14:27 in even strength ice time in this one.  That was less than Eric Fehr (15:39), Nicklas Backstrom (16:58), Brooks Laich (16:45), Joel Wasrd (15:08), and Jay Beagle (15:05) among the forwards.

In the end…

Gritty win, nice win.  Now…let’s see them put a streak together.  This has been the problem for the Caps, stringing solid performances together.  This was a solid performance.  There was not much flow, and a lot of the game seemed to be spent in the neutral zone.  But the Caps played a smart road game, counter punching and capitalizing on opportunities – two turnovers produced the two goals.  It is likely to be the same sort of game they will have to play on Saturday when the road trip continues in New Jersey against the Devils.  But, you can have two in a row unless you have one, and this was a pretty good, if not a pretty one to have.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 25: Capitals at Hurricanes, December 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their act to the road for the next three games, starting with a visit to Raleigh, NC, and the Carolina Hurricanes.  The Caps and ‘Canes, long-time adversaries fighting over a Southeast Division championship, are now locked in a battle to remain relevant in the Metropolitan Division race. 

Washington, losers of two straight and four of their last five games (1-3-1) are at least hanging close to a playoff spot, just two points behind the New York Rangers for the third spot in the Metro (the Caps are five points behind the fifth-place team in the Atlantic and the at-large playoff spot).  Carolina has a tougher row to hoe.  The Hurricanes are seven points behind the Rangers and struggling to remain afloat.  After winning four straight games to start the month of November, they lost to the Caps on November 8^th by a 4-3 margin in overtime.  Starting with that game, the Hurricanes are 4-7-1 in their last 12 contests.

Part of Carolina’s recent problem is an awful record in one-goal games.  They are 1-5-1 in such games in this 12-game slide, breaking a string of six straight one goal losses with a 2-1 win over Nashville last Tuesday.  Add in the fact that Carolina lost two of three games in which an empty net goal was scored to provide a two-goal margin, and the Hurricanes played their games on the margin 10 times in 12 contests with a 2-7-1 record.

One thing contributing to the Hurricanes’ recent woes is being underwater at even-strength.  Outscored overall in their last 12 games by a 29-28 margin, they have been outscored 25-19 over those games.  It has negated a respectable special teams performance in which they were 9-for-34 on the power play (26.5 percent) and 21 for 24 killing penalties (87.5 percent).

Individually, Carolina has had good balance in scoring.  Thirteen different players scored goals in their last 12 games with Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, and Jiri Tlusty tied with four apiece.  Seventeen different skaters have points with Skinner (4-6-10) and Justin Faulk (2-8-10) leading the teams with ten points apiece.

Staal and Skinner seem to be hitting their stride after suffering injuries earlier this season.  Staal missed five games in October to an upper-body injury, but he is 5-8-13 in 17 games since returning.  Skinner missed the first four games of the season after sustaining a concussion in the preseason finale against the Capitals when he collided with defenseman Matt Niskanen. After his late start, he is 6-7-13 in 20 games.  Staal is 25-42-67 in 65 career games against Washington, while Skinner is 7-11-18 in 22 career games against Washington.

Faulk, with his 2-8-10 scoring line in his last 12 games, doubled his scoring in his first dozen games (1-4-5).  After going five games without a point in October, he is 3-11-14 in his last 18 games.  In 15 career games against Washington, Faulk is 2-5-7.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through Tuesday’s games:

1.  Carolina just does not score much at 5-on-5.  With 37 goals they are 27^th in the league in scoring at 5-on-5.  Only Buffalo, Columbus, and Winnipeg have scored fewer.

2. The great Alexander Semin goal watch continues.  Through 19 games and 22 shots on goal, Semin has yet to light the lamp. His streak without a goal is up to 25 games (and 38 shots on goal) dating back to last season.  Those 22 shots in 19 games (1.16 per game) is, by far, a career low.  He averaged 1.77 shots per game over 52 contests in his rookie season with the Caps in 2003-2004.  He came into this season averaging 3.06 shots per game over his career.

3.  One thing Carolina is not guilty of is coloring outside the lines.  Their 73 minor penalties is tied for lowest in the league (Nashville), and their average of 7.1 penalty minutes per game is a league low.  Only Nashville (64) and Calgary (65) have found themselves shorthanded less often than Carolina (66), and no team has been shorthanded less frequently than the Hurricanes at home (23 times in ten games).  They play within the rules, or they are very adept at concealing their infractions.

4.  Carolina has not had much in the way of offensive fireworks this season.  Only Winnipeg has had fewer games (3) with four or more goals scored than Carolina (4).

5.  Carolina’s possession numbers are at odds with their 5-on-5 goals scored and allowed.  The Hurricanes have scored 37 goals at 5-on-5 while allowing 49, a goals for/against ratio of 0.76.  However, their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 is 51.80, ninth in the league.  They slip some in tied situations, where their Corsi-for percentage of 50.65 ranks 18^th.  Given that the Hurricanes rank ninth in Corsi-for percentage when trailing and rank seventh when leading, this does not seem to be a club that handles stress all that well (numbers and rankings from war-on-ice.com).

1.  We are 24 games into the season, and the Capitals have yet to win consecutive games in regulation time.  We will repeat that… we are 24 games into the season, and the Capitals have yet to win consecutive games in regulation time.

2.  Alex Ovechkin has goals in eight games this season, and the Caps have a record of 5-1-2...they are 5-9-2 when he does not have a goal.  Either he needs to score more, or the Caps need to find reliable secondary scoring from somewhere…anywhere.

3.  Tales of a Rookie… In his first 15 games this season Andre Burakovsky was 3-9-12, plus-5, while averaging almost 14 minutes a game.  In his last nine contests he is 1-0-1, minus-4 and averaging 12 minutes and change a night in ice time.  In three of his last four games he skated less than ten minutes.

4.  John Carlson has grabbed a spot among the league defenseman scoring leaders with a recent rush.  Carlson has point in three straight games (2-4-6) to climb to a tie for sixth place in points among defensemen (4-14-18).  It is the first time he recorded points in three consecutive games since going 1-3-4 from January 30^th through February 2^nd last season.  It is the most points he has had over a three-game stretch since going 1-6-7 from December 5-9 in the 2011-2012 season, part of a four-game scoring streak (1-7-8).

5.  Consider the following… The Capitals have 16 third period goals all season.  Only Winnipeg and Columbus have fewer.  They are 0-6-1 when trailing after two periods.  Only teams with no standings points trailing after 40 minutes are: Columbus, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Buffalo.  They are 1-9-3 when allowing the game’s first goal.  Only Buffalo and Columbus have a worse winning percentage when scored upon first, and no team has fewer wins.  So far, this is not the profile of a team strong through 60 minutes of play on a regular basis.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Cam Ward

It only seems as if Cam Ward is the only goaltender the Carolina Hurricanes have ever had.  In a way, he is the Olaf Kolzig of the Hurricanes, a goaltender who made a splash in his first post-season as a regular number one goalie, then had to be the rock in goal as the team deteriorated around him over time.  Ward is the franchise leader in games played (478), wins (232), losses (175), and shutouts.  However, at age 30 his numbers have been in decline for the past few seasons.  In his last three seasons, including this one to date, Ward is 27-26-8, 2.84, .904, with one shutout.  This year he seems to be a goalie who struggles with low shot volumes (sound familiar?).  In six appearances facing more than 30 shots he is 3-3-0, 2.34, .932.  In 11 appearances facing fewer than 30 shots he is 4-5-1, 2.55, .896.  Ward is 16-12-4, 2.56, .921, with four shutouts in 33 career appearances against the Capitals.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

When Nicklas Backstrom assisted on John Carlson’s goal 2:45 into the Caps’ 4-3 loss to Vancouver on Tuesday night, it made it six straight games with a point for Backstrom (1-8-9).  It is his longest points string since putting together a nine-game streak from March 30th through April 13^th in the 2012-2013 season.  It is not, so the narrative goes, that he has been padding his assist totals by setting up Alex Ovechkin.  It is true that four of Backstrom’s eight assists in this six-game streak have come on Ovechkin goals, but three of those assists are of the secondary variety.  He has four other assists, all primary helpers, setting up Matt Niskanen, Troy Brouwer, Tom Wilson, and Carlson.  The thing is, though, four of those eight assists came on power plays.  It would be nice if Backstrom, or anyone, could lift that total at even strength.  Backstrom is 12-34-46 in 38 career games against Carolina.

In the end…

This game will mark the 25-game point of the season for the Caps.  If you look at their five-game win-loss blocks so far, they look like this:

• Game 1-5: 3-0-2
• Games 6-10: 1-4-0
• Games 11-15: 3-1-1
• Games 16-20: 2-3-0
• Games 21-24: 1-2-1 (one game left to play)

One might have expected some clearer sense of improvement over time from a team led by a new coaching regime.  It has not yet happened.  And, the Caps have had a disturbing inconsistency in their possession numbers at 5-on-5 recently.  Since they beat Carolina, 4-3 in overtime on November 8^th, the Caps are 4-5-1 with overall possession numbers every bit as muddled.  In those ten games the Caps have a Corsi-for percentage of 51.03 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  However, the range of numbers is from a low of 40.0 in the Caps’ 3-2 overtime loss to the New York Islanders on November 26^th to a high of 63.21 in a 2-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on November 22^nd.  In those ten games the Caps were over 50 percent in five games, below 50 percent in another five contests.  Call it a consistent inconsistency.  Call it something that has to change.  If it starts to, this would be an opponent against which you might expect it to happen.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 24: Canucks at Capitals, December 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home from their brief, if fruitless road spin up to Toronto on Saturday to host the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday night at Verizon Center.  The Caps start December trying to get out of the rut in which they spun their wheels in November.  Looking at the schedule gone by, it was three losses followed by three wins.  Then it was two losses followed by two wins.  A couple of one-goal losses followed, then the month wrapped up with a couple of blowouts, one win and one loss.  It made for a 6-6-2 month of November.  The Caps were 4-4-2 in one-goal games overall, 2-2 in extra time games (all settled in overtime).  They were outscored 42-38.  On special teams they had a 33.3 percent conversion rate on power plays (11-33) and a 75.7 percent kill rate when shorthanded (28-37).  It was pretty much a "meh" month for the Capitals.

On the other hand, Vancouver seems to have awakened from an early-season slumber.  The Canucks were 4-3-0 when they hosted Washington on October 26th.  Starting with their 4-2 win over the Caps, Vancouver is 12-4-1 since that start.  Over those 17 games they have outscored opponents by a 51-39 margin.  Their special teams are not particularly special – an 18.8 percent power play (9-for-48) and an 84.3 percent penalty kill (43-for-51).  What they have done very well is win the close ones.  In their last 17 games, Vancouver has been involved in seven one-goal decisions.  They are 6-0-1 in those games.

Another thing they have done, which you might have figured out, is avoid lengthy stumbles.  The Canucks have not lost consecutive games in this 17-game stretch, a fact worth pointing out because they did lose to the Red Wings in Detroit, 5-3, in their last contest this past Sunday.

At an individual level, fans would certainly know the Brothers Sedin, Daniel and Henrik.  Nick Bonino is another matter.  A former sixth-round draft pick of the San Jose Sharks, Bonino is on what for him is a tear.  He is third on the team in points (19), behind the Sedins, and is tied for the team lead with a plus-10.  Bonino gave some hints at such production capability when he finished last season in Anaheim with 22 goals and 49 points in 77 games with the Ducks.  While he has maintained a decent points pace lately, Bonino has slipped in the goal-scoring category.  He comes into this game with a ten-game streak without a goal.  In five career games against the Caps he is 1-1-2, minus-1.

As for the Sedin brothers, there they sit, one-two in the Canucks’ scoring rankings (22 for Henrik, 21 for Daniel). Each has a power play goal this season, each has eight power play points.  Daniel averages 19:14 in ice time per night, while Henrik averages 19:13.  Thirteen times in 24 games, both recorded points.  Only six times this season (all in November) has the pair been held off the score sheet entirely. Vancouver is 4-2-0 in those games.

Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise:

1.  Vancouver will test the Caps' attention to possession.  The Canucks rank fifth in shots on goal per game (31.3), and they have been at 30 or more in eight of their last nine contests, going 6-2-1.  They are 13-4-0 overall when hitting or surpassing the 30 shot mark, including their 4-2 win over Washington in October when they outshot the Caps, 34-22.

2.  Vancouver is one of only two teams remaining not to have lost a one-goal decision in regulation time (Anaheim is the other).  Their .875 winning percentage in one-goal games is second best in the league (New York Islanders: .909).

3.  Vancouver will test the Capitals’ defense at full strength.  Only Dallas (53) and Tampa Bay (57) have scored more goals at 5-on-5 than the Canucks (50).  On the other hand, their defense can be tested as well.  Their 50 goals allowed are surpassed by only four other teams (Colorado, Dallas, Columbus, and Edmonton).

4.  Falling behind the Canucks makes for a difficult night.  Vancouver has the third best winning percentage (.833) when scoring first, a 10-2-0 record.  They are hardly slouches when allowing the first goal.  The Canucks are one of seven teams with a .500 or better winning percentage when allowing the first goal (6-5-1).

5.  Since the Sedins broke into the league in 2000-2001, 20 players have appeared in 800 or more games and averaged 0.80 points per game or more.  The Sedins rank 13th and 16th on that list, Henrik with 0.84 points per game, Daniel with 0.82 points per game.  You’d think they were twins or something.

1.  Now 23 games in to the 2014-2015 season, Washington is still without a winning streak of longer than three games.  It is the deepest they have gone into an 82-game season without a longer winning streak since 2007-2008, when they posted their first four-game streak in Games 45-48.

2.  Alex Ovechkin has recorded 13 hat tricks since he came into the league in 2005-2006. Only three players currently with the club have as many as one with the team: Brooks Laich (February 10, 2010, against Montreal), Troy Brouwer (January 13, 2012, against Tampa Bay), and Joel Ward (November 1, 2013, against Philadelphia).  In all, Capitals not named “Ovechkin” have 14 hat tricks with the club since 2005-2006.

3. For what it’s worth, only five clubs have more blocked shots at home than the Caps (205): Buffalo (208), Philadelphia (213), Dallas (238), Toronto (238), and Montreal (249).

4.  Denying opponents shot opportunities is not a rock-solid indicator of success.  The Caps have limited opponents to 27.1 shots per game, fourth fewest in the league.  And, they have outshot opponents 15 times in 23 games, yet they have just a 5-7-3 record in those games to show for it.  When holding opponents to 25 or fewer shots and outshooting them, the Caps are just 2-2-3 with one win coming in regulation (3-1 at Calgary on October 25th when they outshot the Flames, 30-21).

5.  The Caps have parceled out ice time rather evenly among defensemen.  Of the top five defensemen in even strength time on ice per game, the range is from a low of 16:43 (Karl Alzner) to a high of 18:57 (Brooks Orpik).  Only Nate Schmidt among defensemen playing in at least five games is under 16 minutes (14:38).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vancouver: Alexander Edler

No Vancouver defenseman has as many as ten points yet this season. Alexander Edler leads the club with eight points (3-5-8).  It is part of a five-year slide in points per game for Edler, who finished the 2010-2011 season with 33 points in 51 games (0.65 points per game), only to see it slide to 0.33 points per game so far this season.  He has just one point (an assist) in his last ten games and is without a goal since potting one in a 3-2 win over San Jose on November 6th.  He does seem to have reversed one poor number, though.  After finishing minus-39 last season, dead last among 303 defensemen (by ten points behind Buffalo’s Mike Weber at minus-29), he is plus-5 so far this season.  He has not finished a season in plus territory since a plus-13 in 2010-2011.  In seven career games against the Caps he is 4-1-5, plus-2.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom/Alex Ovechkin

The pair of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin is relied upon for a lot in the offensive end.  Yet, Backstrom is tied for 37th in even-strength scoring (13 points), while Ovechkin is tied for 53rd (12 points).  The Caps are tied for 18^th in 5-on-5 goals scored; they are tied for 20^th with a ratio of goals scored to goals allowed at 5-on-5 of 0.89.  These are not coincidences.  These are things that have to change, or the Caps are going to find themselves slushing around in 10^th place or so in the East all season, on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  The Backstrom/Ovechkin pair has to be more productive at even strength.  Period and point blank.

In the end…

Vancouver is hot, the Caps are not.  Add in the fact that the Caps are not an especially successful team against Western Conference opponents (4-4-2 against the Western Conference, 2-3-2 against the Pacific Division, including a 4-2 loss at Vancouver on October 26^th), the fact that old nemesis Ryan Miller is likely to be in goal (career vs. Caps: 16-12-3, 2.49, .917, 3 shutouts), and this looks like a grim task for the Caps.  The Caps have won two of their last three meetings against the Canucks at Verizon Center, though.  The fact that the Caps, entering Tuesday night’s games, are “only” two points behind the New York Rangers for the last playoff spot in the East is something of a mirage.  They have yet to find any traction, any truly sustained stretch of good play that translates in to a winning streak or consistently winning play.  It can get late right quick unless the Caps find a way to start stringing wins together.  Starting to do so against a hot opponent is as good a place as any to start.

Capitals 3 – Canucks 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 8

Rarely do three games cover such a range of play as those that the Washington Capitals played in Week 8.  A close-fought game settled in overtime against the New York Islanders, a blowout in the rematch, and then a game that seemed to be an utter waste of the jet fuel used to transport the team to Toronto in a loss to the Maple Leafs.  It was a week that had something for everyone, unless you were looking for another winning week.

Record: 1-1-1

The Caps just cannot seem to get any traction. Since opening the season with a pair of winning weeks, they have failed to put together consecutive winning weeks in any of the six that followed, including Week 8.  In fact, they have not had consecutive anything weeks since Weeks 1 and 2.  A .500 week (standings points), a losing week, a winning week, a losing week, a winning week, and a .500 week this past week.  It could have been another week that looked really good in retrospect.  The Caps opened by losing to the Islanders in overtime, a game out of which, quite frankly, they did not really deserve a standings point.  They pasted the Isles in the rematch two nights later.  That set the Caps up for what could have been their best week since Week 2 (2-0-1).  They came out flat against the Maple Leafs and never really challenged in a 6-2 loss, dropping the Caps into fourth in the Metropolitan Division and tenth in the Eastern Conference.

Offense:  3.00/game (season: 2.75/game; rank: T-12^th)

It was not a bad week for the Caps at the offensive end, but neither was it a good one.  What it was, was unbalanced.  Seven different Caps shared in the nine goals, but three of them were scored by Alex Ovechkin, including getting goals in consecutive games for the first time since Games 2-4 of this season.  Six other players had a goal apiece.  Ten different players had points, but of the seven of those players who had assists, Nicklas Backstrom and Matt Niskanen dominated with five and four, respectively.  And, neither had a goal.  Four players recorded at least one goal and one assist – Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer, Tom Wilson, and Evgeny Kuznetsov – but only one (Johansson) had more than one of one or the other (goal, two assists).

Defense: 3.67/game (season: 2.60/game; rank: 14^th)

It was a deceptive week for the Caps in the defensive end of the rink.  Looking at the numbers from a high level, holding teams to an average of 28.7 (27.0 in regulation time) shots is a decent week.  However, the Caps allowed only 23 shots in their 6-2 loss against the Maple Leafs.  More to the point, the Caps allowed 60 shots in the first and second periods of games, an average of ten per period.  Drilling a bit further into the numbers, the Caps had middle-of-the-road decent Corsi numbers for the week at 5-on-5 (49.52 Corsi-for percent).  However, when tied, the Caps had a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 44.00 percent and were a minus-15 overall (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  The odd part of that statistic at first blush was that the Caps did not have their worst game against the Maple Leafs.  That can be explained away by spending so little time tied (14:15 in total time).  Their worst game was the first game against the Islanders, one in which the Caps were minus-19 with a Corsi-for percentage of 37.92.   The Caps were not able to keep the rink from being tilted in their direction when the decision was in the balance, and they really were fortunate to get that single standings point.

Goaltending: 3.57 GAA / .857 GAA (season: 2.65 / .900 / 1 SO)

It could have been a good week.  In the first two games of the week, Braden Holtby stopped 54 of 58 shots in regulation time, a .931 save percentage.  One would be happy with weeks like that.  Unfortunately, there was the overtime against the Islanders, one that the Islanders spent in the Caps’ zone, in no small part due to a power play that led to the game-winning goal.  Then there was the tire fire against the Maple Leafs in which Justin Peters started, was yanked after the first period after allowing two goals on six shots, then going back in for the third period after Holtby allowed three goals on 12 shots in the middle frame, only to allow another goal on five shots.  Even playing only 40 minutes, it was the fifth straight appearance in which Peters allowed three or more goals (.859 save percentage).   It made for an unbalanced week, despite the balanced win-loss record.

Power Play: 4-for-7 / 57.1 percent (season: 28.8 percent; rank: 2^nd) 

Week 8 might have been the Caps’ best power play week of the season.  First, it was their best week in terms of conversions.  In making good on four of seven chances, the Caps recorded their first 50-plus percent week of the season (57.1 percent).  It tied their high for goals scored (Week 5: four goals on ten opportunities).  Then there was the efficiency.  The Caps scored their four goals on 13 shots.  Seven different players shared in the shots, four of them in goals.  Ovechkin had two goals on three shots against the Islanders in the first game of the week, the only power play shots on goal for the Caps in that game.  Andre Burakovsky scored on his only power play shot on goal, a tip-in of a Matt Niskanen drive.  Troy Brouwer got the fourth power play goal of the week on a one-timer from the middle of the 1-3-1.  When you add in that the Caps recorded their 13 shots on goal in just 9:34 of power play ice time (1.36 shots per minute), it was about as good a week as one could draw up.

Penalty Killing: 4-for-9 / 44.4 percent (season: 77.5 percent; rank: 23^rd)

If the power play went as one might draw it up, the penalty killing was the same. If it was drawn up by kindergartners on a Hallowe’en candy rush.  The Caps had their first below-50 percent week on the PK in Week 8.  The odd part was, the Caps did almost everything right.  They limited chances, nine shorthanded situations faced for the week.  They limited shots, ten in nine opportunities.  They were stingy on a shots-per-minute basis, 0.55/minute for the week.  There were two problems.  First, there was that penalty taken against the Islanders in overtime of a 2-2 game.  Iffy as the penalty might have been (it was), killing penalties at 3-on-4 is a different animal from 4-on-5, and yet the Caps still came within two seconds of killing of that penalty and perhaps sending the contest to the Gimmick.  The game against Toronto was just generally awful.  Justin Peters allowed goals on both power play shots he faced; Braden Holtby allowed one on the three shots he faced.  The penalty killers were efficient, but they (including the goaltenders) were not effective.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 5-6 / minus-1 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 0.89; rank: T-20^th)

Scoring even-strength goals had become almost as rare an occurrence in Washington as John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi having lunch at Ben’s Chili Bowl.  Failing to score an even strength goal against the Islanders in the first game of the week, the Caps went 18:27 into the rematch before Marcus Johansson scored the first even-strength goal for Washington in 148:59.  And even with that, the Caps gave both that goal and the power play goal they scored earlier back with two even strength goals allowed in a span of 66 seconds after Johansson’s goal.  It was part of a big night for the Caps – four goals on 23 even strength shots – but that was sandwiched around games in which the Caps went 1-for-53 shooting at evens (1.9 percent).  It made for a disappointing week even as the Caps held their opponents to 8.0 percent shooting (6-for-75). 

Faceoffs: 96-for-172 / 55.8 percent (season: 50.8 percent; rank: 13^th)

It was a very good week in the circle for the Caps.  They won all three games in terms of being over 50 percent.  While they were one under 50 percent in the offensive zone for the week (30-for-61; 49.2 percent), they were dominant in the defensive zone (31-for-52; 58.5 percent).  Of the three Caps taking more than 20 draws for the week three finished over 50 percent (Nicklas Backstrom: 53.4 percent; Eric Fehr: 57.1 percent; Jay Beagle: 60.7 percent).  Even Evgeny Kuznetsov, the fourth player with more than 20 draws, was just one under 50 percent for the week (11-for-24).

Goals by Period:

First periods were consistent for the Caps, and not in a good way.  Washington allowed two goals in each of the games’ first periods for Week 8.  It is hard to win in the NHL when trailing at the first intermission, and the Caps lost both games in which they trailed after 20 minutes.  This is part of what is a slow and disturbing trend for the Caps.  They have allowed the 12th-most number of first period goals this season, which is largely negating some good first period work at the other end (tied for sixth in first period goals scored: 22).  

In the end…

Three games in four nights did not agree with the Caps, especially when the back-to-back portion of it came on the second half of the four nights, the second game of which was on the road, and at the end of a holiday week (these guys have lives, too, that might have their own brand of hectic activity).  Games like the one against the Maple Leafs are going to happen, one of those 20 games in a season that a club is going to lose, no matter what.* 

It was that game against the Islanders to start the week that was disappointing.  The Caps were fortunate to get out of that one with a standings point, which makes one wonder what might have happened had they playing the Islanders more evenly in terms of possession.  It ended up being a week in which issues the team had coming into the week remained issues at the end.  First, there is the lack of rhythm on a game-to-game basis.  The Caps have not put together consecutive winning weeks over the last six weeks and have a modest three-game winning streak as their longest of the season. 

Then there is the backup goaltending.  Justin Peters has not provided the capable relief that the Caps are going to need if they are to keep from riding Braden Holtby into the ground down the home stretch of the season if the Caps are fighting for a playoff spot.  Peters had not had an inordinate amount of time off between appearances – two games/five days to start the season, after which it was one/four, two/eight, two/seven, two/six, two/seven.  With his appearance against Toronto it was five games off and 14 days, his longest stretch of inactivity of the season.  If his performance does not improve, this might be a preview of things to come.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (0-5-5, plus-1, five-game points streak…we do not penalize him much for that iffy overtime penalty in the first Islanders game)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-0-3, plus-1, 17 shots on goal, 30 shot attempts, nine hits)
• Third Star: Matt Niskanen (0-4-4, almost 24 minutes per game in ice time with three goals against on ice)

*  The Peerless’ Rule of 82: ”In an 82-game season, a team will win 20 games, no matter what, and they will win 20 games, no matter what; it is what the team does with the rest of the games that makes or breaks a season.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 21/22: Capitals vs. Islanders, November 26/28

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals celebrate Thanksgiving this week with a home-and-home set against a team that is hardly a “turkey.”  It is a team capable of “stuffing” the puck down their throats like your crazy uncle stuffing yams down his throat at holiday dinner, of "mashing" your hopes like a boiled potato. 

That team is the New York Islanders.  Yes, the New York Islanders.  A once proud franchise that has reached the playoffs only six times in the last 20 seasons before this one, one that has not won a playoff series in that span of years.  It is a team that has a win-loss record of 624-762 over those 20 years with 106 ties and 103 extra time losses.

This year, things are different.  The Isles are 15-6-0, their 30 points tied for third in the league through Monday’s games.  One wonders, though, what to make of their achievement to date.  On the one hand, the Isles are on a 9-1-0 run after a 6-5-0 start to the season, but six of the wins were by one-goal, and four of them came in the Gimmick, three in their last five wins (New York is 5-0 in the trick shot competition).

On the other hand, the Isles are a good possession team, fifth in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 at 52.86 (war-on-ice.com)  goals scored-to-goals allowed ratio of 1.15 that puts them in the top ten in the league.  And, with a PDO of 100.14 at 5-on-5 (14^th in the league), the Isles might be underperforming against their possession statistics.

Then again (on the third hand?), there is the goaltending half of the PDO number, and for the Islanders it has been inconsistent, or at least different.  Over the summer the Isles swapped out Evgeni Nabokov (40 appearances; 15-14-8, 2.74, .905) and Anders Nilsson (19 appearances; 8-7-2, 3.11, .896) in favor of Jaroslav Halak, obtained for a 2014 fourth round draft pick from the Capitals, and Chad Johnson, signed as a free agent from the Boston Bruins.

Halak has been what the Islanders hoped for, sporting a 10-4-0 record with a 2.23 goals against average (11^th in the league) and a .922 save percentage (tied for 12^th).  He enters this home-and-home set against the Caps on a personal seven-game winning streak over which his GAA is 1.11, his save percentage is .957, and he has three shutouts.  If he is not the league’s hottest goaltender, he can still flash-boil an ice rink.  Halak is 4-4-0, 2.76, .893 in eight career regular season appearances against Washington.

Johnson, on the other hand (lots of hands in today’s post, eh?), has not been able to replicate the numbers he posted in Boston last season to justify his two-year/$2.6 million contract.  While he has a 5-2-0 win-loss record, his GAA of 3.33 ranks 43^rd of 48 qualifying goaltenders, and his save percentage of .876 ranks dead last.  In his last five appearances he has allowed four or more goals four times, has a GAA of 3.87 and a save percentage of .858.  He still has a 3-2-0 win loss record in those games.  Johnson has one career appearance against the Caps, a 4-2 Boston Bruins win over the Caps last March 29 in which he stopped 31 of 33 shots.

Now, about that 9-1-0 record in New York’s last ten games.  They have outscored their opponents by a 29-18 margin.  Five of the goals allowed came in their lone loss, a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on November 15^th.  In seven of the wins they allowed two or fewer goals, three of them those shutouts by Halak.  Their special teams have a certain asynchronous look to them, the power play converting a middling 16.7 percent of its opportunities, while the penalty killers have been very good, killing off 89.7 percent of their shorthanded situations.  The difference lies in the opportunities.  New York has enjoyed 36 power play chances over the ten games while facing only 29 shorthanded situations, only a total of three over their last three games.  That, and two shorthanded goals scored, go a long way toward accounting for the plus-5 in goals for/goals against on special teams.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through Monday’s games…

1.  In their 9-1-0 run the Islanders have had balanced scoring.  Fourteen different players share the 29 goals with John Tavares, Ryan Strome, and Brock Nelson each with four to lead the team.  Nineteen different players have points, Tavares and Strome each with eight (both 4-4-8).

2.  What the Islanders have not had in their 9-1-0 run is much by way of goal scoring from their defense.  Three of the 29 goals have come from blueliners, Travis Hamonic with one and Nick Leddy with a pair.  The group does have 17 assists, though, with all six defensemen playing over the ten games recording at least one helper.

3.  The Islanders have hardly been front-runners in their 9-1-0 run.  They scored first in only four of the games and took a lead into the first intermission on three times.  What they have done is win the late stages of games.  They have outscored opponents 10-5 in the third period and overtime of the ten games, and they have won five of the third periods outright (outscored in three games and held even in two).  New York has the best record in the league when trailing first (7-1-0).

4.  No team has won more games when outshooting the opposition than the Islanders.  Their 11-2-0 record is the third-best winning percentage in such games.  They are 7-0-0 in their current 9-1-0 run when outshooting their opponent.

5.  Back to the hands thing.  On the one hand, the Islanders are 9-1-0 in one-goal games, the best record in the league.  On the other, they are 6-5 in games decided by more than one goal.  Keeping in mind that through Monday there are 12 teams in the NHL who are between one game over and one game under .500 in winning percentage in one-goal games, the Islanders look like a club that, at least so far, has won more than their share of coin flips.

1.  The Caps continue to struggle with good fortune of their own making.  Despite outshooting opponents in 14 of 20 games, they have only a 5-6-3 record in those games.  What is almost worse, the Caps are just 3-2-3 in games in which they hold opponents to fewer than 25 shots on goal.  Five of those eight games have gone into extra time, the Caps having a 1-1 record in overtime decisions and a 1-2 record in trick shot competitions.

2.  The Caps have lost only one game this season when scoring first.  Only five teams have not lost such a game.  On the other hand (still with the hands?), the Caps have won just one game when allowing the first goal.  Only Buffalo has yet to win such a game.

3.   98.22.  That is Washington’s PDO at 5-on-5 through 20 games, 26^th in the league.  Meanwhile, they have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 51.90, ranked 10^th.  The rankings suggest that one or the other is, as they say, “out of whack,” “whack” being a technical term in data analysis meaning, “balance.”  Let’s look at the 15 games since the Caps started 3-0-2.  In those games, the Caps are 6-8-1.  As you might expect, the Caps did better in games with a high PDO than a low one.  In games where the PDO was 100.0 or higher they were 5-1-0; they were 1-7-1 in games where the PDO was below 100. Now here is the bizarre part.  When the Caps had a game Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 50 percent or better, they were 3-4-1.  In games in which their game Corsi-for percentage was less than 50 percent, they had a record of 3-4-0.  There was no “Corsi-for percentage” effect over this group of games.  In fact, nothing at 5-on-5 as far as shot attempts appear to have made much of a difference.  Total Corsi events?  When the “Corsi Pace/60” was 100.0 or better, the Caps were 2-4-1; they were 4-4-0 when it was below 100.  When their own Corsi-for/60 was 50 percent or better, they were 4-5-1; when below 50 they were 2-3-0.  On the other side, when Corsi-against/60 was 50 percent of lower the Caps were 4-4-1; when above 50 they were 2-4-0.  You would think that something has to give here (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

4.  If you think perhaps the Caps are drifting into old bad habits, look again at those last 15 games.  Taken in five-game chunks the Caps were over over 50 percent in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in three of five games in the first five-game piece, over 50 percent in four of five games in the middle five-game piece, and over 50 percent in three of the five games in the last five-game piece.  Yeah, something just has to give here (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

5.  Perhaps the strange part of all the decent possession numbers is looking at the relationship of those numbers to the plus-minus numbers at an individual player level for the Caps.  There isn’t one.  There have been 22 skaters dressing for the Caps so far this season.  Of that group, 10 have “plus” numbers, and two of them (Chris Brown and Jack Hillen, both at plus-1) have appeared in five or fewer games.  Meanwhile, there are 11 skaters with “minus” numbers (Marcus Johansson is “even”).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Mikhail Grabovski

The last in the revolving door of contestants to fill the Caps second line center position from outside the organization was Mikhail Grabovski, signed as a free agent by Washington in the summer of 2013.  In one season with the Caps he had a respectable 13 goals and 35 points in 58 games.  Then he moved on, signing a four-year/$20 million deal with the Islanders last July.  Grabovski has once more put up decent numbers, averaging a half-point a game in the 18 games in which he has appeared and marrying that to a plus-5 rating that is top-five on the team.  He has been a picture of consistency with four points in eight home games and five points in ten road games.  He is plus-2 at home, plus-3 on the road.  What he has not been lately is hot.  He was 3-3-6 in six games to open the season, but he is just 1-2-3 in his last 12 games.  In 17 career games against Washington he is 3-8-11, plus-8.

Washington: Barry Trotz

OK, so he’s not a player, but he has an interesting decision to make insofar as Wednesday’s game (at least) is concerned.  Alex Ovechkin left Tuesday’s practice early with an “upper-body tweak,” raising the question of his availability for Wedneday night’s opener of this home-and-home set.  If Ovechkin cannot go, Barry Trotz has to fill in that top line left wing, and he has a number of options.  He could move Marcus Johansson from the left side on the second line to the top line.  The charm of this is that the second line has been in a funk lately, and the change might do some good for its own sake.  Trotz could move Andre Burakovsky to that line to change things up on the second line (Burakovsky was on the top line after Ovechkin’s departure in practice), but he would have a second move to ponder, that of who to slide into the second line center spot (Evgeny Kuznetsov moved into that spot in practice).  He could move Kuznetsov into the left wing spot on the top line.  This might have less disruption than the Burakovsky move, with having to fill the fourth line center spot the other move.  With Mike Green and Brooks Laich out for at least the first of the two games against the Islanders, Trotz didn’t need another ball to juggle.  However, he has a lot of experience at this level.  This will provide an interesting in-game management test for Trotz if Ovechkin can’t go. 

In the end…

Folks seem to think of this home-and-home as a benchmarking exercise for the Caps, evaluating how they perform against a stout opponent.  That might be true, but it might be equally true that this is a benchmark set of games for the Islanders.  While the Islanders have a fine record, much of it has been earned playing on thin margins.  Only six of the Islanders 15 win are by two or more goals, and five of their nine one-goal wins are in the freestyle competition.  For the Caps, having perhaps 12 of their 55 goals scored out of the lineup for these games (Ovechkin with nine; Mike Green with three), this will be a stiff test.  The Caps will need all “hands” on deck for these games if they are to pull out a pair of wins.

Wednesday: Capitals 3 – Islanders 2

Friday: Capitals 5 – Islanders 3

Programming note: We will be dark until Sunday.  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 7

You have enjoyed a nice dinner.  You are looking forward to your last course.  It comes to your table.  It looks wonderful.  You take a forkful… and spit it out.  What had been a lovely dinner to that point leaves a bad taste in your mouth as you leave for the evening.

That was Week 7 for the Washington Capitals.  Oh, it was a winning week.  Two road wins made it a fine start to the week.  When the Caps came home to face the Buffalo Sabres, it looked as if the Caps might have their first blemish-free week of the season.  But the Caps came up short, and a 2-1-0 week did not seem as good as a 2-1-0 week should.

Record: 2-1-0

The Caps started the week with a pair of one-goal wins on the road, in Arizona and Colorado. Not only were they one-goal wins, the games scored the game-winners late, an overtime game-winner by Eric Fehr in a 2-1 win over the Coyotes and a game-winner by Alex Ovechkin with 5:56 to play in a 3-2 win over the Avalanche.  Those two games put the Caps over .500 in standings points for the season in one-goal games, certainly no small consideration in a league with as much parity as the NHL (for comparison’s sake, the Caps were 21-10-14 in one-goal games last season, 11 standings points over.500).  They dropped a one-goal decision to the Buffalo Sabres to end the week, though, and fell to 5-5-3 in one-goal games, the 24^th-best record in the league.

Offense:  2.00/game (season: 2.75/game; rank: T-12^th)

It was a hard fought week, and goals were hard to come by.  Six different Caps scored the six goals for the week; ten different Caps had points.  Nicklas Backstrom led the team in points with a goal and two assists; four other players had two points.  The Caps struggled in two areas.  One, shot volumes.  The 44 shots they recorded against the Sabres in the last game of Week 7 papered over the fact that they managed only a total of 47 shots in the first two games of the week against teams that ranked in the bottom third in the league in shots on goal allowed.  Then there was the shooting percentage.  The Caps were 6.6 percent for the week, well below their 9.0 percent for the season. If there was a hole in the offense this week it was in the second line of Marcus-Johansson, Andre Burakovsky, and Troy Brouwer.  The trio combined for no even-strength points in three games (Johansson had a power play assist), and they were a combined 0-for-21 shooting.

Defense: 1.67/game (season: 2.60/game; rank: 14^th)

The Caps continue to do one thing well on a consistent basis – limit shots.  Washington allowed three opponents a total of 79 shots, an average of 26.3 per game, slightly less than their season average of 26.8 shots per game (fourth-best in the league).  However, the Caps seem to have difficulty separating effective defense from sluggish offense; the two seem to combine to result in something that resembles “Hunter Hockey,” coin-flip games where offense – for either team – is difficult to realize.  The Caps had a positive Corsi week, a 55.0 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5.  However, this was skewed by an overwhelming Corsi advantage against the Sabres (67-39 in events, in favor of the Caps; 63.21 percent Corsi-for; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 1.65 GAA / .937 GAA (season: 2.51 / .905 / 1 SO)

Braden Holtby got the call in all three games in Week 7, and he shined.  He was over .930 in save percentage in each of the three games, extending a stretch of good play on his part.  Over his last six appearances he is 4-2-0, 1.67, .942.  Holtby did an especially good job of keeping the Caps in games early.  He stopped all 19 first period shots he saw for the week.  The flip side of that was that he allowed goals in each of the second period of games for the week (27-for-30 in saves overall). In the third period and overtime he was a solid 28-for-30 (.933 save percentage).  It might have been an even better week but for some odd events in the last game against Buffalo. He allowed one goal when a shot that sailed wide hit the end boards and took an odd rebound out the other side where Matt Moulson converted it into a score.  Then, on Buffalo’s second goal, Holtby made a fine save on the initial shot, but his defense did not tie up Torrey Mitchell before he could jump into the play and convert the rebound.  Still, Holtby is on a roll. 

Power Play: 1-5 / 20.0 percent (season: 25.4 percent; rank: 2^nd)

It was not the efficiency, it was the frequency.  The Caps had only five power play opportunities for the week, including a game in which they had none and another in which they had one (which they converted).  In three of the last four games for the Caps they have had one or no power play chances.  Despite the second best power play in the league, they finished the week with the third-fewest opportunities in the league (59), behind only the New York Rangers (56) and Boston Bruins (54).  Looking at the efficiency alone, a week in which the Caps were 20 percent in opportunities (rebounding nicely from their only week below 20 percent) and shot 1-for-9 in 8:00 of power play ice time was a pretty good one.

Penalty Killing: 5-for-5 / 100.0 percent (season: 82.3 percent; rank: 14^th)

It was the second straight clean week for the Caps’ penalty killers.  And, what was good for the goose (only five power play opportunities) was good for the gander (only five shorthanded situations faced).  One would have liked the Caps to be more efficient on the penalty kill in one respect, though.  In 9:32 of shorthanded ice time for the week the Caps allowed 12 power play shots on goal.  If it is true that the goaltender needs to be a team’s best penalty killer, that might have been true of Braden Holtby this week.  The week was helped, no doubt, by the fact that Colorado and Buffalo are poor power play teams, both ranking in the bottom five in the league.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 5-5 / even (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 0.92; rank: 21^st)

The even strength ratio for the week is more or less the product of the first two games.  Against Arizona and Colorado the Caps had a combined Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 49.4, the result of being a minus-2.  In that respect it was a very even week at even-strength.  Against the Sabres the underlying numbers looked marvelous – plus-28 Corsi at 5-on-5, but the Caps didn’t pass the “eye” test, an inability to follow up shots by creating havoc in front of goalie Jhonas Enroth.  When Buffalo got a couple of breaks, it resulted in a 2-0 win at even strength in the last game of the week.  Possession numbers can tell a story over large numbers of games, but on a game to game basis they can be subject to much more noise than signal.

Faceoffs: 86-for-167 / 51.5 percent (season: 50.1 percent; rank: 14^th)

This is another case of a “winning” week not looking like as much of one from closer inspection.  The Caps won 51.5 percent of all faceoffs this week, but that was weighted heavily by a 63.8 percent winning percentage in the neutral zone. A 44.4 percent winning percentage in the offensive zone might have contributed to the difficulties the Caps had in scoring goals in Week 7.  Nicklas Backstrom, as he does most weeks, took the highest volume of draws and won one more than half (30-for-59).  His problem was in the defensive zone, where he was just 5-for-15.  Next up in volume was Jay Beagle, whose 58.8 percent winning percentage for the week looked better than it was.  He was 7-fo-r7 in neutral zone draws and 10-for-13 in the defensive zone.  But he was 3-for-14 in the offensive zone.  Andre Burakovsky couldn’t quite get to the 50 percent mark in the offensive zone, either, going 4-for-10.

Goals by Period:

It was a relatively even week in goals scored, six for and five against, but the distribution was a bit different.  The Caps spread their goal scoring across the periods, including one in overtime.  On the other hand, opponents squeezed all their goals into the second and third period.  That second period was the problem.  The Caps were a minus-1 for the week in the middle period (two for, three against).  This was a bit odd in that the Caps are among the most prolific goal scoring teams in the second period of games this season (they finished the week tied for eighth with 22 goals). 

In the end…

The two points that the Caps more or less gave away to Buffalo might be the two that haunt them in the end.  At the moment, those two points do not make a difference in their Metropolitan Division standing; they would have finished the week in third place with or without them.  But it is the difference between being eighth in the Eastern Conference (with the points) and ninth (without them).  It was an opportunity lost.  The good part was that the Caps earned that opportunity with two hard-fought road wins out west.  But to give a part of it back with a forgettable effort against Buffalo (44 shots on goal notwithstanding), makes one think than come April, that game might not be so forgettable after all.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (2-1-0, 1.65, .937)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-2-3, plus-1, Corsi-for/5-on-5: plus-23/62.4% for)
• Third Star: Brooks Orpik (0-2-2, plus-3, 23:19 average ice time, 17 hits)