The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Rangers at Capitals, March 11h

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Call it “Hump Game,” if you will.  The Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers on Wednesday (“Hump Day”) in what is the middle game of their five-game home stand at Verizon Center.  The Caps will be looking to get over another “hump” of sorts, that being the Rangers themselves.  Since Game 7 of the opening round of the 2009 playoffs, won by the Caps, 2-1, Washington is 9-10-1 against the Rangers in the regular season (2-4-1 in their last seven games at home), and they have dropped two of three playoff series to the Rangers, both in seven-games.  That regular season record includes a 4-2 loss to the Rangers in New York on December 23rd.

Meanwhile, the Rangers went into their Tuesday night game against the New York Islanders as a team on a roll.  Since losing consecutive games to the Islanders and the Montreal Canadiens in late January, New York has earned points in 16 of 18 games (13-2-3) and climbed to within three points of first place in the Metropolitan Division after being seven points out when they started their run in late January (they hold four games in hand on the first-place Islanders).

There are some distinct similarities between these two teams.  At a team-wide level, both teams have high-octane offenses, the Rangers having just a bit higher octane rating (3.05 goals per game to the Caps’ 2.94).  Their defenses are among the most effective in the league, the Rangers being just a bit stingier (2.34 goals allowed per game to the Caps’ 2.40).

On an individual level, both the Rangers and Caps have a dominant goal-scorer.  Alex Ovechkin leads the league in goals (44) and has 30 goals in his last 35 games (a 70-goal scoring pace over a full season), while the Rangers’ Rick Nash is second in league goal-scoring (38).

Nash has already recorded more goals than he has in any season since posting 40 in 2008-2009 with Columbus. He is a hat trick away (perish the thought) from tying a career-best 41 goals, set with Columbus in his sophomore season in 2003-2004.  He has not been especially hot lately, though, having scored one goal in his last six games despite recording 22 shots on goal.  In 16 career games against Washington, Nash is 12-8-20, plus-2.  His 18.2 percent career shooting percentage against the Caps is his third best against any team against which he has appeared in at least ten games.  Only against Buffalo (20.3 percent) and Ottawa (18.8 percent) has he been better.

The Rangers are just one of three teams with five defensemen on their roster having recorded at least 15 points this season (the Caps and Nashville are the others).  It might surprise one to know that the defenseman leading that group for the Rangers is Kevin Klein (no relation).  His nine goals and 26 points are career highs in each category; his 17 assists ties a career high set with Nashville in 2011-2012.  Klein has been somewhat dormant of late, though.  After posting points in five straight games in early February, he is 0-1-1 in his last nine contests.  He has ramped up his shooting of late, however, recording eight shots on goal over his last three games after recording four over a nine-game stretch and no more than one in any of them.  In six career games against the Caps, Klein has yet to record a point.

When a Ranger goaltender posts season numbers of a 2.33 goals against average and a .921 save percentage, you would be tempted to conclude, “yeah, another decent Henrik Lundqvist season.”  Except, those are the season numbers for Cam Talbot in 26 games thus far, the last 15 of those appearances (he was spelled once by Mackenzie Skapski) as the Rangers number one netminder.  Talbot took over those responsibilities when Lundavist was struck it the neck by a shot from Carolina's Brad Malone in a 4-1 win on January 31st after teammate Ryan McDonagh's stick pushed up his goalie mask to expose his throat.  Since taking over for Lundqvist, Talbot has not been spectacular (2.44, .917), but he has won (10-2-3 with two shutouts).  He has one career appearance against the Caps, allowing three goals on 34 shots in a 32 Caps win on December 27, 2013.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  The Rangers are front runners.  They do not lead the league in first period goals – they are fourth with 61 – but they are second in the league in first period goal differential (plus-21 going into Tuesday’s game with the Islanders; New Jersey is plus-23).

2.  New York seems to play well with others in one respect.  They have the fifth-fewest number of minor penalties called against them this season (207).

3.  When the Rangers are killing penalties, look out.  With eight shorthanded goals in 188 shorthanded situations, they have the third-best frequency of shorthanded goals scored (one in every 23.5 situations; both the Islanders and Dallas have one in every 23.5 situations).  On the other hand, they have the fifth-worst frequency of shorthanded goals allowed to power play opportunities (one in every 30.3 power plays).

4.  New York is one of six teams not yet losing in regulation time when leading after two periods.  Over the past five seasons, including this one, the Rangers are 130-1-6 when leading after two periods.  We do not recommend the Caps going into the last 20 minutes behind the Rangers.

5.  Is there a correction somewhere in the Rangers’ future?  Their Corsi-for/Fenwick for percentages at 5-on-5 are rather mediocre (50.6/17th-ranked Corsi; 50.4/14th-ranked Fenwick).  In close score situations they are not much better (50.9/15th-ranked Corsi; 51.0/18th-ranked Fenwick).  Maybe it’s a PDO thing, specifically the save percentage component.  At 5-on-5, the Rangers’ PDO is 101.6, third-best in the league; in close score situations it is 101.8, best in the league.  The save percentage component of that in overall and close score situations (93.0/93.3) rank fifth and third, respectively.  The Rangers rely a lot on goaltending from a possession numbers perspective (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Here is an odd one… Four Capitals have recorded at least one point on both the power play and shorthanded.  Two of them are defensemen: John Carlson and Matt Niskanen (Troy Brower and Eric Fehr are the others).

2.  Tom Wilson does not seem quite as ornery at home as he does on the road.  Of Wilson’s 145 penalty minutes, 52 were earned at home, and of his 11 fights, only four were on Verizon Center ice.

3.  The Caps are one of just three teams that have 30 or more wins when scoring first (30).  The Rangers are another (31).  Pittsburgh (30) rounds out the trio.  Must be a Metro thing.

4.  Alex Ovechkin leads the Caps in goals scored in the Metropolitan Division (14).  You probably knew that.  Know who is second?  Eric Fehr (10).

5.  Washington might have some of the same issues as do the Rangers in their home possession numbers, at least at home.  At Verizon Center their Corsi-for percentages, overall and close score, are unremarkable (52.4/14th-ranked; 53.8/11th-ranked).  Ditto, Fenwick (53.0/11th-ranked; 54.2/10th-ranked).  However, those PDO numbers exhibit an odd sort of behavior.  At 5-on-5 overall, the Caps have a PDO 100.7 (12th-ranked).  In close score situations, however, they have a PDO of 102.0 (3rd-ranked; all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Dominic Moore

What a road well-traveled by Dominic Moore.  In 2000 he was a third-round draft pick of the Rangers, taken 95th overall after his freshman year with Harvard University.  After completing his four-year career at Harvard, he played in parts of two seasons with the Rangers before a rather active day in 2006.  On July 19th of that year Moore was traded by the Rangers to Nashville for Adam Hall, and then the Predators traded Moore on the same day to the Pittsburgh Penguins with Libor Pivko (how’s that for a hockey name?) in exchange for the Penguins’ third round pick in the 2007 entry draft (Nashville took Ryan Thang, who played one game in the NHL…so did Pivko, for that matter).  The following February, Moore packed his bags once more, traded to Minnesota for the Wild’s third round pick in the 2007 entry draft.  In January 2008 he was a waiver claim by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Moore lasted more than a year in Toronto...barely. 

In March 2009 he was traded to Buffalo as a rental for a second round draft pick.  He was a short-timer in Buffalo, heading off to Florida in October as a free agent.  Florida traded him to Montreal in February 2010 for a second round draft pick – another rental deal – after which Moore signed as a free agent by Tampa Bay that summer.  In February 2012 he was traded to San Jose with a seventh-round draft pick for a second-round pick in 2012.  In July 2013 he returned “home,” so to speak, signing with the Rangers as a free agent.  Drafted, traded, waived, signed as a free agent.  It’s sort of the “Dominic Moore Hat Trick, plus one.”  He has 667 regular season games played at ten stops (the Rangers counted twice) and another 69 post-season games played for five different teams (again, the Rangers counted twice).  Oddly enough, for a player as well traveled as Moore and with so many games under his belt, he has only 29 career regular season games played against the Caps (tied for 87th most since 2003-2004, his first year in the league).  He is 3-7-10, minus-3, in those 29 games.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Once upon a time, Evgeny Kuznetsov was thought to be a potential contender for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.  That was before Nashville’s Filip Forsberg took the trophy by the throat and ran away with it (with apologies to Johnny Hockey) and before Kuznetsov was shuttled up and down the forward lines, playing anywhere from the top line to the fourth line (where he has spent more time lately, only once cracking 12 minutes in his last six games). 

Still, with all the shuttling around and the attention paid to rookies elsewhere, Kuznetsov is 11th in rookie scoring (6-19-25) and eighth in assists.  Those numbers are, however, disappointing after an abbreviated inaugural campaign in which he was 3-6-9 in just 17 games at the end of last season.  It has been more than a month since he last scored a goal (February 5th against Ottawa), and he has just one point in his last 11 contests.  He and fellow rookie Andre Burakovsky (the surprise that Kuznetsov was not, although he is in Hershey at the moment) have combined for a 15-31-46 scoring line, what folks might have thought Kuznetsov could accomplish on his own this season.  In that respect, one hopes that Kuznetsov can find the spark (and deployment) to improve his production in time for the playoffs.  In one career game against the Rangers (December 23rd this season, a 4-2 Rangers win), he has one goal.

In the end…

The Rangers have two sets of back-to-back games in a space of six days, starting with their Tuesday night contest against the Islanders.  As emotional as games in that rivalry can be, especially since it is the last Ranger visit to Nassau Coliseum, Ranger coach Alain Vigneault might choose Mackenzie Skapski to start in goal against Washington if Talbot plays against the Islanders.  Skapski is in his first year of pro hockey after four years in Canadian juniors.  He was 12-7-3 with Hartford in the AHL (2.38/.914/2 shutouts), but he has just one NHL appearance, that a 24-save effort in a 3-1 Ranger win over Buffalo on February 20th.  Then again, with the Rangers playing Buffalo and Florida in the weekend back-to-back, Skapski might be held back for one of those games.

Whoever is in goal for the Rangers, the Caps have to deal with some unpleasant recent history against this team.  There is a special urgency in this in that the Caps might face this team (again!) in either the first or second round of the post season.  It will be the first of three meetings between the clubs over the next month, perhaps providing a glimpse of what to expect if the teams should meet in the playoffs.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 22

After a detour into winless territory in Week 21, the Washington Capitals returned to winning ways in Week 22.  They took advantage of struggling teams and might have had a perfect week but for a something less than perfect third period against the Minnesota Wild.   

Record: 3-1-0

The Caps have been alternating dominating and losing weeks lately.  In Week 18 they were 3-1-0.  They followed that up with a 1-2-0 record in Week 19, 4-0-0 in Week 20, and 0-3-0 in Week 21.  It continued in Week 22, the Caps finishing a four-game week going 3-1-0.  The three wins allowed the Caps to inch just a bit closer to the Metropolitan Division leading New York Islanders, closing the gap from eight points at the beginning of the week to six.  They halved their deficit with the New York Rangers for second place, from six points to three, an important consideration since the Rangers hold four games in hand over the Caps at the end of Week 22 and face Washington in Week 23.

Offense:  4.00/game (season: 2.94/game; rank: 6^th)

The scorers scored (Alex Ovechkin had five goals), the playmakers made plays (Nicklas Backstrom had five assists), the new guys contributed (Curtis Glencross had four points, Tim Gleason had one), and the Caps got a healthy dose of contributions all around.  Eight players shared in the 16 goals for the week; 18 players recorded points.  It was a healthy week from a shooting percentage perspective, the Caps finishing Week 22 with 16 goals on 135 shots (including a pair of empty net goals). 

It was not all unicorns and accordions, though.  The Caps took advantage of poor defensive teams, scoring four goals against the league’s 25^th-ranked team in scoring defense (Toronto), five against the 26^th-ranked team (Columbus), and six against the league’s worst team in scoring defense (Buffalo).  They managed just one goal against Minnesota, a team with a middle-of-the-road scoring defense (12^th at week’s end) but one whose goaltender – Devan Dubnyk – was stopping pucks at an impressive rate (14-2-1, 1.52, .944, four shutouts in 17 games prior to his meeting the Caps).  The Caps solved Dubnyk just once on 25 shots.  Still, it was a good week on the offensive side of the puck.

Defense: 1.50/game (season: 2.40/game; rank: 6^th)

Shots against had become a bit of an issue with the Caps in the 2015 portion of the season.  In 16 of 27 games coming into this week the Caps had allowed 30 or more shots on goal after allowing 30 or more shots in 12 of 36 games in the 2014 portion of this season.  In Week 22 the Caps allowed 30 or more shots in each of the first three games of the week. 

Those first three games make a point.  Week 22 was in two distinct parts when it came to possession.  There were those first three games against Toronto, Columbus, and Minnesota; and there was the fourth game of the week, a 6-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres.  If one looked at the four games overall, the Caps had a pretty good week.  Their Corsi-for/Fenwick-for percentages at 5-on-5 were 53.5/55.6, and they were just about as good in close score situations: 54.2/56.1.  In those first three games, though, the numbers did not look quite as good, Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages of 47.7/50.5, respectively; and the close score values were similar: 48.2/51.4.

Then there was the last game of the week against the Buffalo Sabres.  By the time the 6-1 dismantling of the Sabres was complete, the Caps set a season high in total shot attempts (84) while limiting Buffalo to the fifth-fewest number of shot attempts allowed this season (43).  The Corsi plus-41 was a season high, as was the overall Corsi-for percentage (66.1).  It did not get better for the Sabres at 5-on-5, where the Caps enjoyed a Corsi plus-37 and a Corsi-for percentage of 67.6 (another season high).  It was hardly surprising that the Caps enjoyed a 45-17 shot advantage, the 17 shots allowed being a season low for the Caps, the first and only time this season Washington allowed fewer than 20 shots on goal.

Goaltending: 1.51 / .945 / 1 shutout (season: 2.34 / .918 / 7 shutouts)

Week 22 was another week in which Braden Holtby took all the available minutes in goal.  It was a lot more successful week than he had in Week 21.  He was solid in all three periods, even if he did suffer a slippage in save percentage over the course of the three periods for the week.  Holtby was 33-for-34 in the first periods of games for the week (.971), 33-for-35 in the second periods (.943), and 37-for-40 in the third periods (.925). 

It was two goals on four shots over a 5:09 stretch of the third period that did him and the Caps in as Minnesota turned a 1-0 Caps lead into a 2-1 win over the Caps, only the second time this season that the Caps lost a game in regulation when scoring first and the second time that the Caps lost in regulation when taking a lead into the third period.  Overall, though, it was the kind of week that was just the thing to make it a 3-1-0 week for the Caps.

Power Play: 5-for-8 / 62.5 percent (season: 24.9 percent; rank: 2^nd)

Week 22 might have been the best week of the season for the Capitals’ power play.  Not only was the 62.5 percent conversion rate the best for the season, the five goals (on only eight opportunities) was the second highest goal total of the season (the Caps had six goals on 17 chances in Week 20).  It was not as if it was entirely “The Alex Ovechkin Show,” either.  Ovechkin had two goals and an assist on the power play to lead the Caps in goals and points on the man advantage for the week, but three other Caps recorded power play goals (Curtis Glencross, Joel Ward, and Marcus Johansson), and 11 players (including Ovechkin) recorded points.

The Caps ran roughshod over opponents on the power play, once they got the opportunity.  Washington enjoyed only two power play opportunities against Toronto and Columbus, then had only one against Minnesota.  They broke out for three against Buffalo to end the week.  In those eight opportunities, the Caps scored those five goals on 21 shots in just 11:14 of power play ice time.  Even against the Wild, on a single opportunity, the Caps scored a goal in just 16 seconds of power play time.  Scoring in all four games made for the longest streak of games in which the Caps scored at least one power play goal since they had a four-game streak (also 5-for-8), November 22-29.

Penalty Killing: 10-for-11 / 90.9 percent (season: 81.6 percent; rank: 15^th)

The other side of the special teams had a fine week as well.  It was part of an odd alternating week-to week performance that saw the Caps finish Week 19 at 60.0 percent, then followed that up with a 100.0 percent week and a 75.0 percent week before going over 90 percent in Week 22.

Columbus was the only club to solve the Caps on the power play this week in what was an odd game.  Despite the teams committing a combined 21 penalties (including one that resulted in a penalty shot for the Blue Jackets), the teams combined for only four power plays, two for each and each team scoring once.  The Columbus power play goal by Scott Hartnell nine minutes into the third period marked the third time in the game that the Blue Jackets narrowed a two-goal Caps lead to a single goal, but it was as close as they got in a 5-3 Caps win.

It was an efficient penalty kill for the Caps, particularly in the second half of the week.  Overall the Caps held their four opponents to one goal on 13 shots in 20:03 of shorthanded ice time.  Against Minnesota and Buffalo, they shut both teams out on five power plays, holding each team to one power play shot in a total of 9:13 of ice time.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 11-5 / plus-6 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.09; rank: 13^th)

The Caps opened the week getting out to 2-0 leads against Toronto and Columbus, doing all their damage at even strength. It was precisely the sort of hole in which the Caps would like to place opponents, forcing them to take chances and opening up the ice for counterattacks.  On the other hand, the Caps’ inability to solve Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk at even strength (0-for-23 shooting) put them in a bind in trying to hold off the Wild in a game that the Caps lost in the third period.  It was a different sort of game altogether for the Caps against the Sabres to end the week.  Spotting the Sabres an early even strength goal, the Caps tied the game with an even strength strike just 2:40 after the Sabres’ goal, then took the lead they would not relinquish five minutes into the second period on a even strength goal.  Finishing the week scoring more than twice as many even strength goals as their opponents is probably not a sustainable outcome, but it is the kind one might expect when facing teams that struggle keeping the puck out of the net.

Faceoffs: 139-250 / 55.6 percent (season: 51.5% / rank: 10^th)

It was a very good week in the circle, a dominating one in the ends.  The Caps won 50 of 83 draws in the offensive zone (60.2 percent) and 49 of 83 in the defensive end (59.0 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr were especially successful in the offensive end, going 22-for-31 (71.0 percent) and 10-for-16 (62.5 percent), respectively, as the players taking the most offensive zone draws for the week.  The same two were big in the defensive zone as well, Backstrom going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) and Fehr going 13-for-20 (65.0 percent).  To the defensive zone success we can add Jay Beagle, who was 13-for-22 in his own end (59.1 percent).  Even Evgeny Kuznetsov, the only Cap taking more than ten draws to finish under 50 percent for the week (45.9), was 50 percent or better in the offensive end (7-for-14) and the defensive end (6-for-12).

Goals by Period:

Week 22 was one of balance in period-by-period scoring for the Caps.  Five goals in the first period, five in the second, and six in the third provided that balance.  It was failing to score in the third period and allowing a pair that kept the Caps from a perfect week.  It is part of a balance that the Caps have achieved over the course of the season.  Washington is in the top ten in goals scored in the first period (56/T-9^th), in the second period (71/5^th), and the third period (66^th/10^th).  They are one goal allowed in the second period from being in the top ten in fewest goals allowed in each of the three periods as well – 43 in the first period (6^th), 58 in the second period (T-11^th), and 54 in the third period (9^th).

In the end…

At this point in the season, it appears unlikely that the Caps will jump over three teams in the Metropolitan Division to take the division crown.  A six-point deficit with 15 games to play is too much, given as well as the other teams ahead of them are playing.  That argues for tending to one’s own business without undue attention being paid to the scoreboard, and the Caps did a fine job of that in Week 22.  Washington did a good job of dealing with Toronto, Columbus, and Buffalo – struggling teams all – in a business-like fashion.  Against Minnesota there might have been a fourth win had Marcus Johansson been a bit luckier shooting the puck (two times beating Devan Dubnyk only to hit iron). Taking the long view, the Caps are 26-11-6 since they were at 10-10-4 on December 2^nd.  That is a 111-point pace over a full season.  They have had only two losing weeks (on a standings points basis) in their last 16 weeks, only four in 22 weeks this season.  The Capitals are the “tortoise” more than the “hare,” and heading into a post-season that could last four series and two months, that might be the better of the two to be.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (5-2-7, plus-3, 22 SOG, 43 shot attempts, five hits, 2 GWG)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (3-1-0, 1.51, .945, one shutout)
• Third Star: Curtis Glencross (2-2-4, even, seven SOG, seven hits, two blocked shots)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 67: Sabres at Capitals, March 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the ice in the second of their season-high five-game home stand on Saturday night when the Buffalo Sabres come to town.  For the Caps it will be an opportunity to win their 18^th game in the 2015 portion of the season, while the Sabres come to town having won only 19 games all season.

It has been a difficult season for the Sabres, especially since mid-December.  On December 15^th they defeated the Ottawa Senators, 5-4, in a trick shot competition to bring their record to 13-16-2.  Since then, however, Buffalo is 6-24-3.  Part of that record includes a 3-13-2 mark on the road. 

Those three wins on the road since December 15^th for the Sabres have come over their last six road games (3-2-1, prior to their game in Ottawa on Friday night).  Not that the Sabres have done it with offense in their recent road success.  In the six games, Buffalo has only 13 goals scored.

Cody Hodgson has been involved in four of those 13 goals over the Sabres last six road games, going 2-2-4.  It is more of what had been an oddly and utterly disappointing season for the former 10^th overall draft pick (2008).  Hodgson is 4-7-11 in 60 games overall this season but has just one point (a goal) in 30 home games thus far.  If makes his ten road points (tied for fourth on the team) look prolific in comparison.  When he scored a goal in the Sabres’ 4-2 win over Columbus on February 24^th, it broke a 27-game streak without a goal.  In eight career games against the Caps, Hodgson is 4-2-6, minus-2.

Brian Gionta is the other Sabre with two goals over this 3-2-1 road stretch.  One of those goals was scored in three-point night (1-2-3) against the Vancouver Canucks on February 26^th, a rare 6-3 blowout for the Sabres.  That is probably a season high-point for Gionta, who has only 19 points in 51 games (7-12-19).  He did have one other three-point game this season, back on November 18^th in a 4-1 win over the San Jose Sharks (two goals, one assist).  In the 28 games he played between his three-point efforts, though, Gionta was just 4-6-10, and he missed 13 games to an upper-body injury.  In 36 career games against Washington, Gionta is 10-14-24, plus-9.

Goaltending will be an issue for the Sabres going forward.  Jhonas Enroth and Michal Neuvirth, who had 62 starts between them for the Sabres this season, were sent off at the trading deadline to Dallas and the New York Islanders, respectively.  That leaves the primary goaltending duties in the hands of Anders Lindback, who arrived in Buffalo from Dallas in the Enroth trade.  This is Lindback’s fourth team in a five-year NHL career.  Nashville, Tampa Bay, and Dallas were his former stops.  He has yet to establish himself as a number one goaltender (he does not have more than 47 appearances at any of his career stops so far), so if there is a silver lining here, Lindback should have his opportunities with the Sabres.  He should not lack for work, since the Sabres are last in the league in shots allowed per game (35.3).  Lindback is 2-2-1, 2.75, .888 with one shutout in five career appearances against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Buffalo does not come by their 30^th place standing in the league by chance.  No team has suffered more losses by three or more goals than the Sabres (23), and no team has a worse winning percentage in such games (.115).

2.  The Sabres do not tend to hang around in games, as one might already assume.  Only 13 times in 65 games have the Sabres taken a lead into the third period, the fewest in the league.  No team has fewer wins in those situations (nine), and only Edmonton (.611) has a worse winning percentage in such situations than Buffalo (.692).

3.  The Sabres are an offense-challenged team.  Their leading scorer – Tyler Ennis (16-18-34) – ranks in a tie for 138^th in points, and his team-leading 16 goals ranks tied for 80^th.

4.   Buffalo has the 11^th best winning percentage in the league when outshooting their opponents (.600).  The trouble is, they have out-shot opponents only five times in 65 games this season.  No other team is close to having so few instances of outshooting their opponents New Jersey is next with 13).

5.  It is hardly surprising that Buffalo is last in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (37.0).  However, that percentage might not capture the magnitude of the situation as much as their team Corsi plus-minus.: minus-1422.  That is right.  Through 64 games the Sabres had been out-attempted at 5-on-5 by an average of 22.2 attempts per game.  That minus number is more than twice as bad as the league’s 29^th place team, Colorado (minus-693).

1.  When the Caps were held to one goal in their 2-1 loss to Minnesota on Thursday it was the 12^th time this season that they were held to one or fewer goals in regulation or overtime.  They still have a long way to go to match last season’s mark of futility.  In 2013-2014 the Caps had 22 such decisions.

2.  Thursday’s loss was just the third time this season that the Caps held an opponent to two or fewer goals and lost in regulation time.  They lost to the New Jersey Devils, 1-0, on November 14^th, and then to the Sabres, 2-1, on November 22^nd. 

3.  Marcus Johansson had a two-game goal-scoring streak snapped against Minnesota on Thursday.  Johansson is fifth in his 2009 draft class in scoring (176 points).  Ahead of him are: John Tavares (382), Matt Duchene (304), Ryan O’Reilly (228), and Evander Kane (222).

4.  The Caps have spent 46:37 more killing penalties than they have on the power play this season, the fifth largest time deficit in the league.  Nevertheless, the Caps are a plus-9 in special teams goal differential (power play and shorthanded goals scored less power play and shorthanded goals allowed).

5.  The raw data on possession reveal an odd statistic for the Caps at 5-on-5.  They are plus-80 in Corsi plus-minus at 5-on-5 and plus-80 in Fenwick plus-minus.  Given what accounts for the difference between the two, blocked shots for and against must be equal.  They are – 798 blocked shots both for and against at 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Zemgus Girgensons

When the 2012 draft was approaching, McKeens Hockey had this to say about an amateur prospect from Latvia playing in the USHL…

“[Zemgus] Girgensons is the type of player you would love to have on your team, but hate to play against. His physical brand of hockey, work ethic and hunger for the puck is unrivaled by any player in the USHL and arguably his draft class. Girgensons plays the game the only way he knows how – in your face and full throttle – as he goes through players rather than around them… The opposition has to constantly be alert when he is on the ice, as he will hit with authority and can also burn a team on the scoresheet with his hands.”

Girgensons was taken by Buffalo with the 14^th overall pick in that 2012 draft.  After a year with the Rochester Americans of the AHL, Girgensons made to the big club, posting eight goals and 22 points in a 70-game rookie season.  This season he elevated his game, producing 15 goals and 15 assists and reaching the NHL All Star Game in a display of Latvian/Sabre pride (or ballot-box stuffing, depending on your perspective).  He is already fourth in his 2012 draft class in career goals (23) and fifth in career points (52).  Girgensons has not slowed much since the All Star break; He is 2-6-8 in 14 games since he appeared in the All Star Game.  In four career games against the Caps, Girgensons has one assist.

Washington: Tom Wilson

In that same 2012 entry draft, Red Line Report said the following about the Plymouth Whalers’ Tom Wilson…

“Huge, mean and nasty S.O.B. who brings a lot of snarl to the rink every night and is the best pure body-checker in this draft group. Loves the physical contact aspect of the game and is always looking to initiate contact in corners and around the walls. Would rather run over his check than around him – punishes opponents at every opportunity. Intimidating physical presence causes fear among OHL d-men. Stands up for teammates and provides skilled players more room to operate. Excellent when he drops the gloves and is not a liability skating 5-on-5. Will never be a sniper, but chips in offensively by causing turnovers and dominating down low in the crease.”

It was a scouting report not all that different from Girgensons, but Wilson’s development as the 16^th overall pick in that draft has been quite so.  Wilson spent the season following his draft in the OHL with the Whalers, but found himself in the Caps’ lineup at year’s end, taking the ice for three games in the Caps’ seven-game loss to the New York Islanders in the first round of the playoffs.  Age considerations prohibited his playing in the AHL the following season, and the Caps felt that another year of junior hockey would not be productive in Wilson’s development.  He spent the 2013-2014 season with the Caps, one of seven Caps to appear in all 82 regular season games and one of just three NHL rookies to do so (Nathan MacKinnon and Tyler Johnson were the others). 

Wilson’s progress has been modest, at least with respect to performance measures within the rules.  He has just seven goals and 24 points in 135 NHL regular season games.  He does have 296 penalty minutes, four times the number of the 2012 draftee with the next highest number (Nail Yakupov with 74 PIMs).  Girgensons and Wilson – similar players in style and, to a degree, in potential – were separated by just two spots in the 2012 draft, but their development to date has not been as close as their respective draft positions would suggest.

In the end…

No team can, as they say, just throw their sticks on the ice and win in the NHL.  That said, what excuse could one offer for the Caps to lose this game?  Even if Alex Ovechkin sits out a second consecutive game, the Caps are superior to the Sabres in every meaningful statistic and on an individual level are superior at every position.  It has been more than a month since the Sabres beat a playoff-eligible team from the East (Montreal, 3-2 on February 3rd, their only win over a playoff-eligible team from the East in 2015).  Not even peeking ahead to the next opponent – the New York Rangers – makes sense as a potential reason to lose this game; the Caps do not host the Rangers until next Wednesday.  This is not a “must win” game in the sense that the Caps must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.  It is, however, a “must win” game in the sense of maintaining credibility as a team that can take care of business and one worthy to reach the post season.

Capitals 5 – Sabres 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 66: Wild at Capitals, March 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals resume their alternating home-road contests by returning home on Thursday night to host the Minnesota Wild in what will be the Wild’s only visit to Washington this season.  We would rather they not bring the expected snow with them, but they are, after all, from Minnesota.

As for the Caps, this game continues a trend that began with a 3-2 Gimmick win over the New York Islanders back on February 21st.  Starting with that game the Caps have alternated contests at home and on the road:

• Feb. 21: Caps 3 – Islanders 2 (OT/Gimmick)
• Feb. 22: at Philadelphia 3 – Caps 2
• Feb. 25: Pittsburgh 4 – Caps 3
• Feb. 27: at Carolina 3 – Caps 0
• Mar. 1: Caps 4 – Toronto 0
• Mar. 3: Caps 5 – at Columbus 3

The Caps get a chance to edge over .500 in this seventh game of alternating home-road contests when the Wild streak into Verzion Center.  And we do mean “streak.”  If there has been a streakier team in the NHL this season than the Wild, we are not aware of it.  Minnesota has had four winning streaks of three or more games (including the one they bring to Washington) with a high of six in a row from January 27th through February 9th.  They have had three losing streaks of four or more games with a season high of six (0-5-1) set from January 3rd through January 13th.

The current three-game winning streak on which the Wild find themselves has elevated them into the second wild card spot for the playoffs, three points ahead of the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks in the Western Conference.  Those three straight wins have something in common that extends much further back in their schedule – stinginess in allowing goals.  The Wild, and specifically goalie Devan Dubnyk, allowed only five goals over those three games, extending to 17 their streak (and again, specifically Dubnyk, who was the goalie of record in all of them) of games allowing three or fewer goals.

In fact, the Wild (yeah, and Dubnyk) allowed only 27 goals over those 17 games.  Dubnyk has found his inner Dryden, is channeling Roy, is Georges Vezina reincarnate.  Over the 17-game streak, Dubnyk is 14-2-1, 1.52, .944, with four shutouts.  This is a goalie who had a rather pedestrian 9-5-2 record in 19 appearances with the Arizona Coyotes (with a 2.72 goals against average and .916 save percentage, with one shutout) before he was traded to Minnesota on January 14th for a third round draft pick in this year’s entry draft.  When one considers that the other three goalies employed by the Wild this season (Darcy Kuemper, Niklas Backstrom, and John Curry) are a combined 18-19-6, 2.83, .895, with three shutouts, one could make a case that Dubnyk is the Wild’s most valuable player this season.

At the other end of the ice, the offense for the Wild is one that might best be characterized as one that “gets by” without a lot of flash.  Forty three times in 63 games they have been held to three or fewer goals (not including shootout goals scored), 30 times to two or fewer goals.  Given the talent on this team, the offensive output is somewhat disappointing. Take Thomas Vanek (bet you wondered where he was these days).  Last July he signed a three-year/$19.5 million deal with the Wild, hoping to expand on a resume that included an average of 34 goals per 82 games over his nine-year career coming into this season.  To date, he has 13 goals in 63 games.  Vanek got off to a horrid start – one goal in his first 21 games with his new club, but 12 in 42 games after that (a 23-goal pace) is not what Wild fans were expecting.

Then there is Jason Pominville.  He is in his second full season with the Wild after he was traded by the Buffalo Sabres (with a fourth-round draft pick in 2014) to the Wild for prospects Johan Larsson and Matt Hackett, plus a first-round draft pick in 2013 and a second-round draft pick in 2014.  It was a hefty price tag, and Pominville justified it with a 30-goal season last year.  However, his production has fallen off – 13 goals in 63 games and five in his last 30 contests.

Here is how the two teams compare overall:

1.  Minnesota has the worst road power play in the league (10.9 percent), and has not improved with age.  The Wild are 1-for-16 in their last nine road games (6.3 percent).

2.  The penalty kill is an entirely different matter.  The Wild have killed 46 of their last 47 shorthanded situations over their last 17 games (97.9 percent), 26-for-26 of that on the road in nine games.

3.  New Jersey is in a class by itself when allowing goals in the first period, only 29 in 64 games.  However, fourth-ranked Minnesota has allowed only three more first period goals (41) than second-best Ottawa (38).

4.  No team in the Western Conference – not Edmonton, not Arizona – has fewer wins against the Metropolitan Division than Minnesota (3-7-0).

5.  In this 14-2-1 run over their last 17 games, one would think the Wild dominated possession numbers.  They haven’t, at least not as much as one might think.  Their Corsi-for/Fenwick-for percentages at 5-on-5 are 50.3/51.8 – good, but no dominating.  And, they were a Corsi plus-22 in games against Edmonton and Colorado.  Take those out, and the Wild are minus-34 in their other 15 games.  In close score situations the numbers are 51.5/52.6 – again, good but hardly dominating (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  In the first six games of this odd home-road odyssey, the Caps are 3-for-17 on the power play (17.6 percent), 2-for-9 of that at home (22.2 percent).  The penalty kill is 15-for-19 (78.9 percent), 10-for-11 at home (90.9 percent).

2.  Alex Ovechkin leads the Caps in goals (five) and total scoring (5-1-6) over those six games; John Carlson is close behind in scoring at 1-4-5).  What is more surprising is that Jason Chimera is tied for the team lead in assists over those six games (four, with Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom).

3.  The Caps have allowed 15 goals in this six game run, five in each regulation period.

4.  Braden Holtby was the goalie of record in all six games and played all of the goaltending minutes.  He was 3-3-0, 2.35, .924, with one shutout.

5.  The Caps have not been especially effective in possession in this 3-3-0 run.  Their 5-on-5 Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages are 48.3/48.4, respectively.  In close score situations, those numbers are 48.1/48.1 (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Minnesota:  Jonas Brodin

Folks have a certain familiarity with defenseman Ryan Suter – his contract (13 years/$98 million), his propensity to gobble up minutes (29:10/game, second among all NHL skaters), his hat trick against the Caps last season (one of only two career multi-goal games).  Folks might not be as well acquainted with defenseman Jonas Brodin.  He ranks second behind Suter in average ice time (24:32) for the Wild and leads the team in plus-minus (plus-17 in just 52 games).  He has been a “minus” player only once in his last 18 games (plus-10 overall)., and he has points in five of his last eight games (0-5-5).  His next shot on goal will be his 200^th and will set a career high (75).  What he would probably like is to be more accurate.  He had eight goals on 74 shots last season (10.8 percent), but Brodin has just two goals on 74 shots this season (2.7 percent).  He is 0-1-1, minus-1, in two career games against the Caps.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

Last season Marcus Johansson suffered a lack of goal scoring, finishing with just eight goals in 80 games.  It was not so much the shots as the efficiency part.  Having scored on 14.2 percent of the shots on goal he recorded over his first three seasons, he managed just eight goals on 107 shots (7.5 percent).  This season he is back to his more efficient ways, recording  a career high 16 goals on a career high 110 shots (14.5 percent).  He is on a pace to finish with the first 20-goal season of his career.  He comes into this game with goals in consecutive games, the first time he has done that since November 4/7 against Calgary and Chicago.  It is the third time he has done it this season.  Johansson is 2-2-4, plus-2, in three career games against Minnesota.

In the end…

Minnesota poses an interesting challenge for the Capitals.  Frankly, it is a team against which the Caps might not match up very well.  The Wild have been next to impossible to score upon on the power play, and they have the very embodiment of the “hot goaltender” in Devan Dubnyk.  However, the Caps have won four straight against Minnesota on Verizon Center ice, and they have a solid 10-5-0 record in their last 15 games.  It won’t be easy, and it is likely to be frustrating at times, but Minnesota’s woes against the Metro continue.

Capitals 2 – Wild 1

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 65: Capitals 5 - Blue Jackets 3

The Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets locked horns tonight at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, and in a fight-filled contest the Caps came out with a 5-3 win to take the season series from the Blue Jackets.

It did not take long for things to get started in this one.  Alex Ovechkin scored his 42^nd goal of the season in the fourth minute of the game when he set up in the slot and deflected a drive from the left point by Brooks Orpik past goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.

Eric Fehr doubled the Caps’ lead late in the first period, taking advantage of a loose puck off a shot from Tim Gleason.  Standing to the right of Bobrovsky, Fehr was left unattended, and before Scott Hartnell could close the distance to tie him up, Fehr snapped the puck past Bobrovsky from the edge of the blue paint of the crease.

That would do it for scoring in the first period, but Columbus halved the lead early in the second on a slap shot from the top of the right wing circle.  The one-goal margin lasted less than a minute.  Columbus was caught with too many men deep in the Caps’ zone, and when the puck squirted out to the top of the zone, Jason Chimera and Tom Wilson were off on a two-on-one break.  Chimera’s tried to deke Bobrovsky to the ice and curl the puck around him, but Bobrovsky made the initial save.  Trailing the play, Wilson popped the rebound into the back of the net, and the Caps were up 3-1.

Scott Hartnell scored for Columbus at the 15:03 mark on a redirect from the high slot of a Jack Johnson shot from the left point to make it 3-2 heading into the second intermission.  Ovechkin got his second of the game in the fourth minute of the third period on a power play when he one-timed a shot from the left circle that seemed to handcuff Bobrovsky.

Hartnell returned the favor on a Blue Jacket power play six minutes later, and that is as close as Columbus would get.  Marcus Johansson scored an empty net goal as he emerged from the penalty box after a Blue Jacket power play in the last minute, and the Caps had their 5-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- With two points apiece, Alex Ovechkin (two goals) and Nicklas Backstrom (two assists) took over the league lead in scoring with 67 points apiece.

-- Jason Chimera added a pair of assists for the Caps, his second multi-point game in his last four contests.

-- The Caps and Blue Jackets had four fights in this game.  That makes seven for the season between the two clubs, one fourth of the Caps’ total for the season (28).

-- Ovechkin’s second goal was the game winner, giving him game-winning goals in consecutive games and three game-winners in the Caps’ last four wins.

-- Tim Gleason and Michael Latta were the only Caps not to record shots on goal, and Latta skated only 3:38, departing early in the second period with an injury.

-- Curtis Glencross had an uneventful debut for the Caps.  He had two shots on goal (no points), three hits (led the team), and two blocked shots, but he was on ice for Columbus’ first two goals.

-- Each team had 40 minutes in penalties for the game, but there were only four power plays, two for each team, each team converting once.

-- Tom Wilson’s 17 penalty minutes was a season high, and he is now third in the league in PIMs (145), trailing only Steve Downie (191) and Cody MacLeod (167).

-- Tim Gleason’s assist on Eric Fehr’s goal was his first point as a Capital and broke a personal 15-game streak without a point, including 14 in a row with Carolina.

-- This was Washington’s 17^th road win of the season, matching their total for all of last year.

In the end…

It was a rough and tumble game, but it was a good win for the Caps.  It enabled the Caps to close to within a point of Pittsburgh for third place in the Metropolitan Division and to within a point of the Detroit Red Wings for fifth place in the conference.  The nine goals scored over the last two games is the most over consecutive games in two months (ten in wins over Florida and Toronto on January 4^th and 7^th).  It sets the Caps up well for the remainder of the week, games against Minnesota and Buffalo that are certainly in the winnable category.  On this night, though, the Caps did what they had to do – deal with a struggling opponent effectively and move on to the next opponent.

Experience and Partnership: The Effects of Recent Events on Mike Green

Over the past few days, the topic of defensemen has figured prominently here and here over at Japers' Rink.  The point being that the Washington Capitals have a sixth defenseman, and one that adds experience to what is already a much more experienced group than the team dressed last season. 

However, there is another point to this that we would like to explore.  Over the first 63 games of the season, that sixth defenseman spot was one that might have made the fifth defenseman – Mike Green – feel as if he was engaged in a speed dating session (even if it did last 141 days).  The first pair of John Carlson and Brooks Orpik was a stable offering on a night-to-night basis, as was the second pair of Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen.  However, until the Caps obtained Tim Gleason from the Carolina Hurricanes this past weekend with the aim of filling that role, Green had a lot of suitors sitting in that chair across from him in an effort to be that sixth defenseman.

For Green, the stability that comes with knowing who his partner would be on a consistent basis was absent from his game this season.  How has that instability manifested itself?  There is the immediate notion of partner time shares.  If you look at the pairs, consider first the share of 5-on-5 ice time through the Caps’ first 63 games spent with other defensemen by the Carlson-Orpik pair (all 5-on-5 ice time numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com):

Carlson and Orpik have logged the most 5-on-5 ice time individually, and more than 80 percent for each one has been spent with the other.   Even with the preponderance of ice time spent with the other there is something to note about their time spent with Green.  Carlson has a history with Karl Alzner, his partner of years past; Orpik has a familiarity with Matt Niskanen, who came with him from Pittsburgh as a free agent.  For both, though, their third most frequent partner is Green.  This should not be all that surprising, given that these five defensemen lead the team in games played (Carlson, Orpik, Alzner, and Niskanen played in all 63 games covered in this review; Green played in 54 contests).  And, it is certainly possible that the ice time totals for any partner other than their regular partner has a certain amount of noise associated with ice time shared during changes on the fly during games (this might account for some of the “righty-righty” ice time of Carlson and Green, for example).

As for the second pair of Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen, a similar pattern applies with respect to their time spent together and with others:

Again, we have individuals having spent more than 80 percent of their time with each other, and we have the flip side of the discussion above, that once you get past the familiarity each member of this pair has with their second most frequent partner (Carlson for Alzner, Orpik for Niskanen), there is Mike Green.

Which brings us to Green and that well-frequented spot on his left.  Let’s look at Green and the other defensemen to have dressed for the Caps this season and their respective 5-on-5 ice time:

First, there is Green’s ice time.  Whereas each of the defensemen in the top two pairs have spent more than 80 percent of their 5-on-5 ice time with their principal partner, Green has not spent half of that (as a share of total ice time) with any defenseman.  The majority of his 5-on-5 ice time (about three-quarters of his total) was roughly split between Nate Schmidt and Jack Hillen, one a youngster in his development phase, the other a depth defenseman of modest achievement and whose presence in the Caps’ lineup was intermittent (his longest streak of games played this season was 15, largely the product of Schmidt sustaining a fractured shoulder blade after he was reassigned to Hershey to benefit from more ice time). 

There is also the nature of Green’s partners.  In years past, whether that partner was a Jeff Schultz (with whom 58 percent of Green’s 5-on-5 ice time was spent in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons) or a Karl Alzner (with whom Green spent 78 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time in 2012-2013), Green has had the benefit of a stay-at-home partner that gave Green a measure of freedom to exhibit his offensive gifts (his bouts with injury seemed to interrupt his performance more than his partners).

That changed some last season when Green spent the largest share of his 5-on-5 ice time with Dmitry Orlov (41 percent), more of an offensive defenseman than previous partners, but last year Green started seeing significant shares of his ice time spread among more defensemen.   In addition to that of Orlov, Alzner occupied about 20 percent of Green’s 5-on-5 ice time as a partner, Nate Schmidt about 18 percent, and Jack Hillen about 11 percent.

Looking at things from the other side of the ice, the other four defensemen that were not part of a steady pair and who were paired with Green intermittently – Schmidt, Hillen, Steve Oleksy, and Cameron Schilling – had Green as their principal partner in each instance.  All had Green as their partner from 59 – 67 percent of the time at 5-on-5 (although in the instances of Schilling and Oleksy the total 5-on-5 ice time for each amounted to 35 or fewer minutes).  It almost seems that, at least in the case of Schmidt, Oleksy, and Schilling (a combined 92 games of NHL experience coming into this season), there was a revolving mentor/apprentice relationship that characterized the third pair more than a steady relationship built over the course of a season.

This year, Green has lacked the steady partnership that characterizes the top two pairs.  That matter has, as the Caps and their fans hope, been rectified by the acquisition of Tim Gleason from Carolina.  It might be that Gleason’s contributions are meager, at least from a top end numbers perspective.  However, what might bear watching in the new relationship is how the partnership affects Mike Green.  He will have that regular stay-at-home partner that he has not had over the past two seasons, and it might be that having that sort of got-his-back partner will once more open up Green’s 5-on-5 game and give the Caps an added dimension to an attack that has enjoyed considerable contributions from the back line this season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 65: Capitals at Blue Jackets, March 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals enter the post-trading deadline home stretch of the season on Tuesday night when they visit the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena.  The Caps will be looking to build on their 4-0 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday, while the Blue Jackets will be checking another game off the calendar of what has become something of a lost season.

The Caps have lost three straight games against Metropolitan Division opponents, but have a 2-1-1 record against the Blue Jackets this season.  This contest will wrap up the season series between the two teams.

Columbus (26-32-4) comes into the game in free fall, having lost six in a row (0-5-1), scoring just 11 goals over those six games while allowing 22.  It is a far cry from last season at this time, when the Blue Jackets were 32-25-5 after 62 games and tied for third in the Metropolitan Division with the New York Rangers.

The Blue Jackets might have equaled that mark of last season had they won instead of lost those last six games.  Scoring has been an issue.  The 11 goals have been spread among nine players, Nick Foligno and Marko Dano the only Blue Jackets with two goals in the six-game losing streak.  Foligno, one of two Blue Jackets named to the 2015 All Star Game roster, has had a rather consistent season.  His 24 goals in 60 games leads the team, and he has six in 16 games since the All Star break.  He is 4-3-7 in four games against the Caps this season and is 6-10-16 in 22 career games against Washington.

Dano was a 27^th overall pick of the Blue Jackets in the 2013 entry draft who has split time between Columbus and the Springfield Falcons of the AHL.  With Springfield he was 10-8-18 in 37 games.  He has spent two separate stints with the parent club this season and is 3-3-6 in 16 games overall.  He has not yet faced the Capitals in his brief career to date.

Columbus was active in the run up to and on trade deadline day, moving defensemen James Wisniewski and Jordan Leopold, injured forward Nathan Horton, and a third round draft pick in separate deals for Rene Bourque, William Karlsson, David Clarkson, Justin Falk, and a pair of draft picks.  Clarkson will be looking for a new start after a two disappointing seasons in his hometown of Toronto.  In 118 games with the Maple Leafs over those two seasons he had just 15 goals, only one of them in his last 25 games with Toronto.  He will be trying to regain the scoring touch that allowed him to record 45 goals in 128 games over his last two seasons in New Jersey before signing a seven-year, $36.75 million deal with Toronto.  Clarkson has yet to light the lamp in two games with his new club.  He is 5-3-8 in 27 career games against the Capitals.

Here is how the teams stack up against each other overall:

1.  Columbus has a fairly efficient power play at home this season (21.9 percent/8^th in the league), but they do not get to unleash it as often as they might like.  Only six teams have had fewer power plays on home ice than the Blue Jackets (96).

2.  On the other hand, Columbus probably spends too much time on the other side of the special team divide on home ice.  Only five teams have been shorthanded at home more often than Columbus (104).

3.  The Blue Jackets tend not to finish games well.  The 70 goals they have allowed in the third period this season is the fourth-highest total in the league.  Perhaps it contributes to their 27^th-ranked 1-25-1 record when trailing after two periods.  No team has earned points in fewer games when trailing after 40 minutes (tied with Buffalo with two such games).

4.  Columbus has the third-highest average penalty minutes per game (11.6) in the league, surpassed only by Winnipeg (14.0) and Pittsburgh (14.3).

5.  As one might expect for a struggling team, Columbus is having a rough time of it in their possession numbers.  They rank 26^th overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (46.7) and 25^th in Fenwick-for percentage (46.8).  The Blue Jackets are worse in close score situations – 27^th in Corsi-for percentage (45.5) and 27^th in Fenwick-for percentage (45.7; all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Last season the Caps took nine bench minor penalties, a small indicator of a lack of attention to details.  This season they have only four bench minors.  Only four teams have fewer (Columbus, San Jose, Nashville, and Edmonton).

2.  Three 5-on-3 power play goals might not sound like a lot, but that number for the Caps ranks fourth in the league, behind only Pittsburgh, Colorado, and the New York Islanders.  They have allowed only one such goal; only five teams have allowed fewer (Nashville, Boston, Ottawa, San Jose, and Arizona).

3.  The Caps lead the league in road hits, and not by a small margin.  Their 983 hits away from Verizon Center is 29 more than the Winnipeg Jets (954).

4.  The Caps are ten points ahead of their 2013-2014 pace after 64 games.  Last season they were 29-25-10 at the 64-game mark; this season they are 34-20-10.

5.  The Caps rank 11^th overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in road games (49.7), 11^th in Fenwick-for percentage (49.6).  In close score situations they rank 12^th in Corsi-for percentage (49.4) and ninth in Fenwick-for percentage (49.7; all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Sergei Bobrovsky

The Columbus Blue Jackets lead the NHL in man-games lost to injury (392 as of February 28^th).  None of the missed games have been more important to the Blue Jackets’ fortunes this season than the 17 missed by Sergei Bobrovsky since he suffered a groin injury against the Winnipeg Jets on January 21^st.  Columbus was struggling even with Bobrovsky in the lineup, but in his absence the Blue Jackets have gone 6-10-1 and have sunk to 13^th in the Eastern Conference while allowing 53 goals in those 17 games.  Bobrovsky had been having a very uneven season leading up to his injury, having allowed one or fewer goals eight times in 33 appearances, but allowing four or more ten times.  He could return against the Caps, against whom he is 4-1-3, 3.06, .908 in nine career appearances.

Washington: Curtis Glencross

Washington needed a scoring line winger; they traded a pair of draft picks to Calgary for Curtis Glencross.  Are those two facts related?  As the saying goes, “time will tell.”  What we do know is that Glencross has been a reasonably reliable 20 goals-per-year sort of player (he averages 22 goals per 82 games over almost 500 NHL games).  He has done so as an efficient sort of shooter, bringing a career 14.5 percent shooting rate to Washington over his career.  Since his first full season in 2007-2008 he ranks 20^th among forwards in shooting percentage (minimum: 250 games played).  While his percentage slipped this season (10.3 percent through 53 games), it is something that argues for his being tested on a scoring line for his new club.  He is 6-6-12, minus-3, in 23 career games against Columbus.

In the end…

Winning in Columbus has been a challenge for the Caps.  They split two games at Nationwide Arena this season, winning a 5-4 overtime decision on December 18^th and losing, 4-3, on January 27^th.  Washington has not won in regulation in Ohio since they took a 4-2 decision on New Year’s Eve 2011.  They are 3-4-1 in their last eight games in Columbus.  The Blue Jackets are a team in rapid decline this season, though.  In their six-game losing streak, five of the losses have been by more than one goal.  Even the potential return of Sergei Bobrovsky in goal is unlikely to turn things around for a club that is looking toward next season.  This is another case, as was Toronto on Sunday, of a team that the Caps need to deal with expeditiously and move on.

Capitals 4 – Blue Jackets 1