Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

-- Lao Tzu

In his five seasons in the NHL, no player is within 80 penalty minutes of Tom Wilson (806; Antoine Roussel has 721), and only Cody McLeod has more major penalties (77 to 58 for Wilson).  Last year for the Washington Capitals he set a personal high in penalty minutes for a season with 187, and only Michael Haley had more fighting majors (22) than Wilson (13, tied with McLeod).  If Tom Wilson was President, his Secret Service code name would not be “Shrinking Violet.”

But a funny thing happened along the way last season.  Wilson set career bests in goals (14), assists (21), points (35), shots on goal (123), shooting percentage (11.4) and ice time (15:59) establishing himself as a credible right wing on the Capitals’ top line.  On top of that, Wilson took a regular turn among the penalty killers, averaging 1:44 in shorthanded ice time, third among Caps forwards.

It was a season that had two distinct parts to it for Wilson.  In his first 24 games he had only two goals, both of those (including the game-winner) coming in a 3-2 win in Boston over the Bruins on November 4^th.  Starting in his 25^th game, one in which he scored his first two goals on home ice last season in a 6-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks, he scored 12 goals in his final 54 games, an 18-goal pace over a full 82-game season.

Wilson built on a solid regular season with an even better postseason.  How much?  Since 2005-2006, 51 skaters have appeared in at least 10 playoff games in a single postseason for the Caps.  Of that group, eight of them have at least one postseason in which they averaged 0.70 points per game.  Wilson joined the group last spring with 15 points in 21 games, 0.71 points per game.

Odd Wilson Fact…

Tom Wilson is one of only four players in the NHL over the last five seasons to record at least 30 goals and at least 500 penalty minutes. 

Bonus Odd Wilson Fact…

Only Bob Carpenter and Alex Ovechkin played more games over their first five seasons (400 and 396, respectively) than Wilson (391) in franchise history.

Double Bonus Odd Wilson Fact…

Tom Wilson is one of only two players drafted by the Capitals in team history to have logged at least 800 penalty minutes in his first five seasons (Scott Stevens had 1,065 PIMs).

Fearless’ Take…

Tom Wilson’s development in the offensive end of the ice adds a dimension that the Caps haven’t had a lot of in recent years, a player with an edge who can contribute.  Yes, he has that history of penalty minutes, but the Caps were 17-1-1 in games in which he recorded at least three shots on goal last season, 9-1-0 in the ten games in which he recorded at least one goal, and 21-4-2 in games in which he recorded at least one point.  The Caps lost three of four games in which Wilson was charged with ten or more penalty minutes.

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah, about all those games played.  In Capitals history, 17 forwards dressed for 300 or more games in their first five seasons.  Only Wilson had fewer than 50 career goals (35; Brooks Laich has the next lowest goal total in that group: 59 goals in 314 games).  An odd thing about his 2017-2018 season is that in 40 games in which he logged no penalty minutes he had a total of two goals.

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career games played (he needs nine)
• 50 career goals (he needs 15)
• 1,000 penalty minutes (he needs 194)
• 500 shots on goal (he needs 41)
• 5,000 minutes played (he needs 250)

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson take his place among the top “power forwards” in the NHL?

Taking Tom Wilson with the 16^th overall pick in the 2012 NHL entry draft came with some risk.  He had two years of Canadian junior hockey under his belt and did not have the sort of offensive numbers one might associate with a mid-first round pick (12-21-33 in 77 games).  Even his third season in junior hockey, one in which he was 23-35-58 in 48 games, was a significant improvement, but not an extraordinary output on the offensive side of the puck, given his draft position.

He did give hints, though.  In two seasons in the playoffs in junior hockey, Wilson scored 16 goals in 25 games.  But when he got to the NHL for his first regular season test in 2013-2014 (he dressed for three playoff games the previous spring for the Caps), he was primarily a banger.  He had 197 credited hits, 151 penalty minutes, and only ten points in 82 games.  And, while his offensive numbers did improve over his next three seasons, he topped out at seven goals in each of his two seasons preceding the 2017-2018 season. 

Doubling his career best in goals, almost doubling his highs in assists and points, and following that up by tripling his career playoff point total over the 41 games over the previous four postseasons combined suggested that Wilson is ready to build on the responsible role he assumed on the top forward line last season.  It would make for an interesting mix.  Since the 2005-2006 season, only five players have recorded more than 20 goals and more than 150 penalty minutes in the same season, and none of them did it more than once.   Twenty goals and 40 points would be the next thresholds for Wilson to reach in his path to being mentioned among the top “power forwards” in the NHL.

In the end…

On July 27^th, the Capitals made another bet on Tom Wilson.  They signed the 24-year old to a six-year/$31 million contract with modified no-trade clauses in the final four years of the deal (source: capfriendly.com).   It is an interesting neighborhood for payroll.  Of 43 forwards with cap hits between $4.5 and $5.5 million (Wilson’s is $5.17 million), only Calgary’s Elias Lindholm and Columbus’ Alexander Wennberg are younger (both are 23, and both carry lower cap hits).  Wilson might have remained a bruising player whose main value was getting into the heads of opponents and their fans.  But with the Caps’ new deal with the player, they are betting that Wilson, who already has a well-developed physical dimension to his game, will continue to exhibit progress in the offensive side of his game and to continue playing a key penalty killing role.  It is a change of direction that both player and club have as the same destination – a Stanley Cup.

Projection: 80 games, 18-25-43, plus-11

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Jakub Vrana

Jakub Vrana

“An acre of performance is worth a whole world of promise.”

-- Arnold “Red” Auerbach

It might be that when the Washington Capitals drafted Jakub Vrana with the 13^th overall pick of the 2014 NHL entry draft, they drafted their first true sniper since they drafted Peter Bondra in 1990.  Different eras, different circumstances, but there are similarities.  Both came up through European hockey in the run-up to their draft years.  Bondra played four years with VSZ Kosice in what was then Czechoslovakia and averaged 0.56 goals per game over 161 regular season games.  Vrana played for a multitude of teams in European league and international play, averaging 0.55 goals per game in 392 games before he was drafted by the Caps.  Bondra was almost a fixture in the Caps lineup in the year following his draft, scoring 12 goals in 54 games as a rookie in 1990-1991.  Vrana followed what is a conventional path for contemporary European players, playing another year in Europe before joining the Hershey Bears for 36 games in the 2015-2016 season.

Bondra became the greatest goal scorer in Caps history (472 goals with Washington) until Alex Ovechkin surpassed him in the 2014-2015 season.  Many years must pass before a verdict is rendered on whether Vrana can be mentioned among the franchise’s greatest goal scorers.  He had a beginning that gave a hint of what was possible.  In only 21 games in his first season he recorded three power play goals, tied for sixth-best on the team.   He followed that up with a 13-goal season in 2017-2018, tied for 17^th among all NHL rookies.  Only three rookies had more postseason goals than Vrana (three): Boston’s  Jake DeBrusk and Vegas’ Alex Tuch with six apiece, and San Jose’s Marcus Sorensen with four.

To put Vrana’s brief career to date in some context, he is one of five Capitals since 2005-2006 who, having only reached his 21^st birthday, averaged at least 0.15 goals per game over his first two seasons while appearing in at least 50 games.  The other four are among the most talented offensive players in this generation of Capitals.  And of course, it was his goal that got the Caps started in their Cup-clinching win over the Vegas Golden Knights:

Odd Vrana Fact…

Jakub Vrana was only the fourth rookie in team history to play in the postseason who was a native of the Czech Republic and the first since Jaroslav Svejkovsky in 1998.

Fearless’ Take…

The Capitals have taken their time in bringing Jakub Vrana along.  Even though he was the 13^th overall pick of the 2014 entry draft, he is 23^rd in NHL regular season games played (94), tied for 22^nd in goals (16), and 25^th in points.  Some might find that a bit disappointing, but that 2014 draft class was rather talented, what with the likes of Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Dyaln Larkin, and William Nylander.  When it mattered last season, Vrana was a contributor.  He tied for fourth among all rookies in postseason goals (three), two of which were game-winners (tied with Vegas’ Alex Tuch for first among rookies).

Cheerless’ Take…

For a “sniper,” he seems a bit scattershot.  His shooting percentage in 73 games in 2017-2018 (9.8 percent) was just a bit above his percentage in 21 games in 2016-2017 (9.4).  And this despite not being shy about shooting.  He was sixth on the club in shots on goal (133) and in shots per game (1.82; minimum: 25 games).  And the Caps were 11-1-1 in games in which he skated less than ten minutes.  What’s up with that?  It might be a picky point, but being under 50 percent in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in tied (45.45) and close situations (49.71) look to be areas in which he could stand some improvement.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career games (he needs six)
• 50 career points (he needs 17)

The Big Question… Can Jakub Vrana “Go Bondra” in 2018-2019?

In Peter Bondra’s second full season with the Caps, his goals scored improved from 12 in 54 games to 28 in 71 games.  Different era, different circumstances, but how Jakub Vrana progresses in what will be his second full season (and third in the NHL) will be one of the subplots worth watching as the season unfolds.  Bondra’s goals per game improved by 77 percent from his first to second full season.  A similar improvement for Vrana would lift him to 0.32 goals per game this season.  If he was to play 75 games, that would result in a 24-goal season.  That might be a bit too high a climb to make if he is getting third line minutes on the left wing and little power play time.  The flip side of this is that if he improves his shooting efficient with a comparable number of shots on goal, say, from 9.8 to 12.8 percent (keep in mind, eight Caps forwards playing in at least 50 games last year had higher percentages), he would be a 17-goal scorer.  If he could increase his shooting frequency to 2.0 shots per game with that efficiency, he would be pushing 20 goals.  These are elements of the maturation process one might look at in the development of a young player.

In the end…

Snipers in the NHL are, by their nature, opportunistic.  Jakub Vrana fills that bill so far.  He has four power play goals and four game-winning goals among his 16 career goals thus far.  Nine of the 12 regular season games in which he scored a goal last season ended in Caps wins.  He has shown no particular preference for home or road games, scoring eight of his 16 total career goals in each category. 

To return to comparisons with Peter Bondra, beginning with his second full season through 2002-2003, Bondra went 12-for-12 in seasons with more than 20 goals.  No other Capital over that span had more than three such seasons, and only Dmitri Khristich and Mike Ridley are in that group.  Vrana does not have the burden of being the go-to goal scorer with this club that Peter Bondra was over his career with the Caps.  That responsibility falls to Alex Ovechkin for the time being.  But as he enters his second full season, it is not unreasonable that in the normal course of development we see more evidence of the goal-scorer that Vrana can become.  His power play ice time might be a large factor on whether he can top the 20-goal mark (he averaged 40 seconds of power play time per game last season), but he should challenge that threshold to cultivate the seeds of performance in his acre of the NHL.

Projection: 77 games, 18-18-36, plus-5

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Chandler Stephenson

Chandler Stephenson

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take.”

-- Wayne Gretzky

For the last six seasons, Jay Beagle was the pivot on the fourth line for the Washington Capitals.  A fine example of what hard work, despite his modest beginnings (undrafted), could accomplish.  Last spring he became the first player in NHL history to win a Kelly Cup (ECHL), Calder Cup (AHL), and Stanley Cup (NHL) in NHL history.  It says something of Beagle as a player and a person that few harbor any resentments that at the end of his championship season, he signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent with the Vancouver Canucks.

Beagle’s departure opens up a hole in the middle of the fourth line, one that could be filled by Chandler Stephenson this season.  Stephenson, if coming from beginnings not quite as modest as Beagle, has had to put in his time in apprenticeship to an NHL roster spot.  Caps fans might forget that he was drafted one spot ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (third round/77^th overall) in the 2012 draft), or that he played another two seasons in Canadian junior (Regina Pats).  He spent parts of four seasons with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, two of those seasons getting a taste of NHL action (13 games) with the Caps.

It came together for Stephenson in his first NHL game, that coming on October 26^th against the Vancouver Canucks.  Late in the third period of that contest, Stephenson took a pass from Beagle at the red line, circled though the neutral zone and down the left side of the Canucks’ end.  Just before curling around the back of the net, he snapped a shot from the goal line extended to the left of goalie Anders Nilsson that snuck between the goalie and the near post for his first NHL goal and first NHL point.  We might have said “it all came together,” but the Caps lost the game, 6-2.

It was the first of 67 games Stephenson played last season, going 6-12-18, plus-13.  That he had six goals was something of an achievement (or an example of uncommon efficiency).  Among forwards dressing for at least 50 games last season, only Vegas’ Ryan Reaves averaged fewer shots on goal per game (0.53) than did Stephenson (0.54).  He was the only player, regardless of position, who had fewer than 40 shots on goal and more than five goals (San Jose’s Joel Ward had five goals on 40 shots).

Odd Stephenson Fact…

Chandler Stephenson is the first Capitals rookie in 20 years to record fewer than 40 shots and at least five goals.  Stephenson had six goals on 36 shots last season.   Jan Bulis had five goals on 37 shots as a rookie in 1997-1998.

Fearless’ Take…

It is not as if Chandler Stephenson has no history as a scorer.  In 230 games in Canadian junior he had 73 goals, including 30 in 69 games in his last year with the Regina Pats.  He had ten in 72 games in his last full season with the Hershey Bears, and in that season (2016-2017) he had 28 assists, fifth on the team.  He showed some ability to be a threat shorthanded with four shorthanded goals in 180 games at Hershey, and he had one last spring in the Caps’ playoff run, giving the Caps some insurance in the 6-3 series-clinching win over the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round.

Cheerless’ Take…

There was a weird “all-in or all-out” thing about Chandler Stephenson’s numbers.  The Caps were 8-1-0 in the nine games in which he had two shots on goal (he did not have more than that in any game), and they were 24-11-5 in the 40 games in which he did not have a shot on goal.  One shot?  They were 9-9-0.  And there was his ice time.  He averaged 11:52 per game last season.  In the 35 games he skated above his average, the Caps were 20-11-4.  In the 32 games he skated under his average, they were 21-10-1.  He might get a chance to be a little more of a difference-maker if he slides off the wing into Beagle’s spot in the middle of the fourth line.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career games played (he needs 20)
• 50 career points (he needs 32)
• 1,000 career minutes played (he needs 99)

The Big Question… Can Chandler Stephenson make the Caps “four-deep” in the middle with the departure of Jay Beagle?

Let’s face it, if you are contemplating whether a youngster can adequately fill in a fourth line center role, yours is a club without a lot of roster issues.  That said, Stephenson has to win that fourth line center role (he could, as he did for much of last season, play on the wing).  It is not a certainty.  He could be pressed by someone like Travis Boyd in camp or during the season for that role.  But Stephenson has played in the middle, and his numbers last year did suggest some potential to play it once more.  For example, he did not take a lot of faceoffs (on Beagle’s line, he would not have done so), but he did win 40 of 73 draws, a respectable 54.8 percent winning mark.  He averaged 1:10 in shorthanded ice time per game, one of five forwards to average more than a minute per game killing penalties.  He nearly doubled that in the postseason, averaging 2:01, second on the team (to Beagle).

In the end…

Their origins might differ, but there is some similarity in the early NHL career progress between Jay Beagle and Chandler Stephenson.  Beagle got his first sustained taste of NHL work in his third season (31 games, after a total of ten in his first two years), and so did Stephenson (67 games after a total of 13 over his first two seasons).  Both averaged around 11 minutes per game in what was their rookie season (Beagle – 10:30, Stephenson – 11:52).  Stephenson displayed more development as an offensive player than did Beagle (6-12-18 in 67 games of his rookie season to 2-1-3 in 31 games for Beagle in his). 

The picture that seems to be coming into focus is that Chandler Stephenson might not be the fully developed player (in terms of reaching his potential) that Jay Beagle was last season, but he might be ahead of where Beagle was at a comparable point in their development.  If Stephenson can continue upward on his development arc, he will fill the middle of the fourth line nicely.  But still, it might be nice if he shot the puck a little more.

Projection: 79 games, 7-14-21, plus-12

Photo: Kirk Irwin/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Devante Smith-Pelly

Devante Smith-Pelly

“There is a saying that every nice piece of work needs the right person in the right place at the right time.”

-- Benoit Mandelbrot

Devante Smith-Pelly is something of an odd hockey player insofar as his performance numbers are concerned.  In seven seasons in the NHL, his overall numbers are rather ordinary.  Since he came into the league in 2011-2012, he is 40-53-93 in 341 games.  There are 298 players in that span who have appeared in at least 300 games, posted at least 40 goals, and recorded at least 50 assists.  His is not a resume that jumps out.  For the Anaheim Ducks, the Montreal Canadiens, and last season (his first) with the Washington Capitals, it was the resume of a bottom-six forward.

But here is the thing.  Smith-Pelly has been an extraordinary performer in the postseason.  He made his first appearance with the Ducks in 2014.  Since then, he is one of only 19 players in the league to have appeared in fewer than 50 games (he played in 48) and posted more than a dozen playoff goals (he has 13).  To be in the same group as better known goal scorers such as Vladimir Tarasenko, Steven Stamkos, Marian Gaborik, and Jeff Carter is no small achievement.

And, while one can look at his record and think, “slow starter,” perhaps he seems to sense those games that matter coming.  His overall career numbers, by month, cleave into two distinct pieces.  From October through February, in no month does he average more than 0.12 goals per game (seven goals in 58 career October games being his highest).  But in March he has 11 goals in 57 career games (0.19 goals per game), and in April he has four goals in 22 career games (0.18 goals per game).  And, it is not a case of more frequent shots.  His shooting percentage in March (12.1 percent) and April (14.8 percent) is markedly higher than in any of the other five months of the hockey calendar (8.8 percent in October being his best in that group).

Odd Smith-Pelly Fact…

Devante Smith-Pelly is more than twice as efficient a goal scorer in the playoffs as he is in the regular season.  Over 341 regular season games in his career, he averages 0.12 goals per game.  In 48 career postseason games, he averages 0.27 goals per game.

Fearless’ Take…

Devante Smith-Pelly made his first postseason appearance in 2014 with the Anaheim Ducks.  He had five goals in 12 games, foretelling what would be a seven goals in 24 games performance for the Caps last spring.  In between, he had one goal in 12 games with Montreal in the 2015 postseason.  His 13 goals over the last five postseasons rank in the top 50 players over that span (tied for 41^st), more than Patrice Bergeron (11 in 29 games), more than Chris Kunitz (10 in 79 games), more than Max Pacioretty (10 in 34 games), and more than Mats Zuccarello (10 in 47 games).  His teams have never lost a playoff game in regulation in which he scored a goal (10 wins, one overtime loss).  He has a knack.

Cheerless’ Take…

Seven goals in 2017-2018 tied Devante Smith-Pelly’s second-highest goal total in his career.  His year-to-year progress has not been one like, say, Tom Wilson, of regular improvement.  He had 14 in 64 games with Montreal and New Jersey in 2015-2016, but then he had 11 in 128 games over the next two seasons (including seven in 75 games with the Caps).  And, even though he played on some pretty poor teams, he has one season in seven in which he finished as a “plus” player (plus-5 with Anaheim in 2013-2014; he was minus-6 with the Caps last season). 

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career games played (he needs 59)
• 50 career goals (he needs 10)
• 100 career points (he needs 7)
• 5,000 career minutes played (he needs 621)

The Big Question… Can Devante Smith-Pelly use the 2018 postseason as a springboard into 2018-2019?

There just is not a lot to go on here.  Smith-Pelly had five goals in 12 postseason games with Anaheim in 2014, and then he followed that up with five goals in 54 games with the Ducks in 2014-2015 before he was traded to Montreal for Jiri Sekac and posted one more goal in 20 games.  It was a big postseason followed by a more characteristic unremarkable regular season.  On the other hand, it was one instance, and it was a 22-year old in what would be his first full regular season in the NHL.  And he did follow up that regular season with a 14-goal season in 2015-2016 (again with two teams – Montreal and New Jersey). 

Looking at a demographic profile similar to Smith-Pelly, if we look at forwards who, since 2005-2006, played in seven or fewer seasons up to their 25^th birthday season, appeared in 300-400 games (Smith-Pelly has 341 games), and scored fewer than 50 goals, does it say anything about being a mid-career bloomer?  Well, here is the population of 20 in that group.  It does not inspire a lot of confidence that Smith-Pelly is going to emerge as a reliable mid-to-high teens scorer.  But, it is a group that includes Tom Wilson, so there is that, and he has fewer career goals than Smith-Pelly in more games played.

In the end…

Devante Smith-Pelly is an intriguing character.  He turned just 26 years old this summer (a week after the Caps won the Cup…happy birthday), so one might reasonably think that there is some potential upside that has not yet been tapped.  What he established last year with the Caps could be something on which to build.  He appeared in a career high 75 games. That’s not a small achievement in itself.  Although he averaged 64 games per season in the three seasons preceding last season, Smith-Pelly had not really established himself as more than a player occupying a spot on the margins of the lineup, eventually waived and bought out by the New Jersey Devils before landing in Washington.

Now, he gets another chance to demonstrate that his postseason work is something on which he can build.  Until last season, Smith-Pelly had not played more than 54 games in one season for any of the other three clubs for which he played, and he was traded in that season (from Anaheim to Montreal).  After a 75-game season, scoring the game-tying goal in the Cup-clinching win – one of a career high seven goals scored in one postseason, and signing a one-year/$1 million contract, he gets a chance to parlay “nice work” at the right time into a longer career as an NHL’er if he can carry over his fine work last spring into the upcoming regular season.

Projection: 74 games, 10-11-21, minus-3

Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“After climbing a great hill, one only finds that there are many more hills to climb.”

-- Nelson Mandela

It took 1,003 regular season games and another 121 playoff games, but watching Alex Ovechkin win, and then accept the Stanley Cup from Commissioner Gary Bettman and roar with joy was worth, to Washington Capitals fans, every one of the 23,610 minutes Ovechkin has skated in a Capitals jersey...

It was an exclamation point on what was one of, if not his best all-around season in the NHL.  He did not score 50 goals for the eighth time in his career, coming up one short on the last day of the season.  He did, however, finish with the third-best shooting percentage in his career (13.8), recorded his tenth season with at least 15 power play goals (17), finished with his third best Corsi-for/relative percentage in his career (plus-5.0), scored more even strength goals (32) than any season since 2009-2010 (37), recorded more power play assists (14) than he had in any season since 2013-2014 (15), posted more assist overall (38) than he had since 2010-2011 (53), and did it while rationing his hit total (139, a career low for a full season).

In a sense, we are past what happens in the regular season with respect to Ovechkin’s performance.  He has been a constant in that arena for more than a decade, and until it happens, there would be no expectation of decline.  Ovechkin has to be Ovechkin when it counts, as he was last spring.  And he was even more “Ovechkin” in that regard than the Ovechkin on display in recent memory.  His 14 goals in 24 games led the league, and it was the first time since 2011 that he averaged more than half a goal per postseason game (five in nine games).  He set a career postseason best in assists (12).  His plus-8 was the second-best of his postseason career.  His 15.2 percent shooting efficiency was the best of his postseason career.  And he did it averaging only 20:44 per game; only three times did he average less ice time in a postseason.  Think of it as “Ovechkin Concentrate.”

Odd Ovechkin Fact…

Alex Ovechkin has 229 career power play goals.  This number alone would place him among the top 50 active players in goals scored, currently tied with Tyler Seguin for 46^th place.

Fearless’ Take…

Lost in all the goal scoring Alex Ovechkin has done over the years is his ability to post points.  With 49 points this season he will jump over Bobby Hull into the top-50 all time in points.  A 58-point season, and he will jump over fellow Russian Sergei Fedorov to become the most prolific point-getter born in Russia in NHL history.  No player in the post 2004-2005 dark season era has more points (1,122, six more than Sidney Crosby).  Only Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have more seasons over that span averaging at least one point per game (13 and 11 seasons, respectively) than Ovechkin (10), and Ovechkin’s number is twice as many as the next full-time winger (Marion Gaborik, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Martin St. Louis, each with five).  Over 13 seasons, the Caps have 3,091 goals scored.  Ovechkin, with 1,122 points, had a hand in more than 36 percent of them.

Cheerless’ Take…

He didn’t get a hat trick in his last game to hit 50 goals; he had only two.  There were seven teams in the league against which he didn’t score a goal (only one in the East…the Islanders – go figure).  He didn’t score a goal in the Pacific time zone.  He was a plus-player in only one month (plus-10 in December).  Okay, we’re reaching.

Potential Milestones:

• 1200 points (he needs 78)
• 400 even strength goals (he needs 26)
• 250 power play goals (he needs 21)
• 5,000 shots on goal (he needs 104)

The Big Question… How far can Alex Ovechkin climb in the all-time goal scoring rankings?

Before last season began, we were resigned to Alex Ovechkin retiring as the greatest player never to win a Stanley Cup.  We are thrilled to have been wrong.  But he has more time to add to a body of work – more Cups, more awards, more goals.  It is the last that we wonder about.  Someday, Ovechkin will start to decline, to release the grip he has on the title of “top goal scorer in the NHL.”  In the meantime, he continues to climb the all-time goal scoring rankings. He began last season in 26^th place with 558 goals.  He ended the season in 19^th place with 607 goals.

Given that he has never scored fewer than 32 goals in a season, 30 goals might be a good place to start pegging where he might finish the 2018-2019 season in those all-time rankings.  A season with 30 goals would vault him into 15^th place, jumping over Dino Ciccarelli (608), Bobby Hull (610), Joe Sakic (625), and Jarome Iginla (625).  A 40-goal season would put him in 14^th place, leap-frogging Dave Andreychuk (640).  And, a 50-goal season would leave Ovechkin in 13^th place, jumping over Brendan Shanahan (656).  Of those six players, only Hull is currently less than a full season’s worth of career games played (1,063) ahead of Ovechkin (1,003).  Ovechkin would have to play without a stick not to pass Hull before that difference narrows appreciably.

Now, how likely is it that Ovechkin will max out on his ladder climbing this season?  Since his age-26 season, when he finished a second straight full season with fewer than 40 goals and was thought to be on the verge of decline, he has averaged 48.8 goals per 82 games in six seasons.  Do you want to bet against him?

In the end…

There is a purveyor snack foods that for decades has used the hook, “bet you can’t eat just one”…

Well, now we get to see if there is an answer to “bet you can’t stop at one (Stanley Cup)” with respect to the Washington Capitals.  And in this pursuit, just like last year’s successful result and the unhappy ones that preceded it, Alex Ovechkin will be the centerpiece in the effort.  Keep in mind that since 2005-2006, none of the 20 instances of a 50-goal season was accompanied by the winning of a Stanley Cup by those players.  So, don’t think it necessary, or even perhaps desirable, that Ovechkin add to his total of 50-goal seasons.

The postseason, should the Caps make it, is another matter.  Ovechkin is tied for 27^th among active players in postseason games played (121), but he is fifth in goals scored (61) and first in goals per game among the 175 active players having appeared in at least 50 postseason games (0.504).  In the 2018 postseason he played 24 games, almost a quarter of his total career playoff games played to that date (97); scored 15 goals, almost a third of his total career playoff goals to that date (46); and he recorded 27 points, 30 percent of his playoff point total for his career to that date (90).  That is the sustained level of performance through four rounds upon which a Conn Smythe Trophy for most valuable player in the postseason and, more important, a Stanley Cup is achieved.  But after 13 seasons and having finally reached the summit, he and his teammates have more hills to climb, a Cup at the summit of each.

Projection: 78 games, 46-36-82, plus-2

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“I wanted to live deep and suck out all the marrow of life, to live so sturdily and Spartan-like as to put to rout all that was not life, to cut a broad swath and shave close, to drive life into a corner, and reduce it to its lowest terms…”

-- Henry David Thoreau

As much as any player in recent memory not drafted by the Washington Capitals, T.J. Oshie has become a fixture with the club – on the ice, in the locker room, in the community, and with the fan base.  On the ice he found a level of production in his three seasons in Washington that he could not find with the St. Louis Blues, the team that drafted him.  He played with the ferocity of a larger player than the 5’11”/195 pound Oshie.  He had a special moment in the first glow of a Stanley Cup win.   And, after the championship was won, he partied the way a lot of us imagine we would in that situation.  T.J. Oshie seems to have a gift for sucking out all the marrow of life.

It did have its price on the ice in 2017-2018, though.  Playing with the abandon with which Oshie plays has its risks of harm, and it is one reason he has never dressed for every game of an NHL regular season (he has two seasons with 80 games).  He appeared in 74 games in 2017-2018, bringing to 24 the number of games he missed for the Caps over his three years in Washington.  This season, six of the eight games he missed were the result of a concussion suffered in December when colliding with the backside of San Jose Shark center Joe Thornton.  It was his fourth such injury in his career. 

It likely played a part in his goal production falling off from 33 in 2016-2017 (tied with Alex Ovechkin for the team lead) to 18 in 2017-2018, fewest in his three seasons in Washington.  He had just two goals in 35 games upon his return before finishing with six goals in his last 11 regular season games.

Odd Oshie Fact…

In his three seasons with the Caps, T.J. Oshie is one of four players in the NHL over that span to record at least 75 goals, at least 350 hits, and at least 150 blocked shots (77/353/166).  The others are Wayne Simmonds (87/483/158), Jamie Benn (103/385/164) and Joe Pavelski (89/370/210).  The oddest part about this?  While the other three recorded at least 629 shots on goal (Simmonds), Oshie had only 455 and had the best shooting percentage (16.9). 

Fearless’ Take…

T.J. Oshie’s goal scoring fell off quite a bit this past season, from 33 to 18, but he remains one of the most productive goal scorers in this generation of Capitals, despite that drop off.  Since 2000-2001, only five players have more seasons with at least 18 goals than Oshie – Alex Ovechkin (13), Nicklas Backstrom (8), Alexander Semin (6), Peter Bondra (4), and Troy Brouwer (4).  His 0.35 goals per game over the past three years equals that of James Neal and Jack Eichel, and it exceeds that of the likes of Phil Kessel (0.34), Eric Staal (0.34), and Nathan MacKinnon (0.33).  His relative possession numbers last season, expressed as Corsi-for percentage on ice-minus-off ice, was the best of his career (plus-3.1), and was the first time he was a plus player in this category as a Capital (source: hockey-reference.com).

Cheerless’ Take…

Relative Corsi….sounds like the weird uncle who shows up on Thanksgiving clutching a can of cranberry sauce because he thinks the stuff you make out of whole cranberries is a terrorist plot.  But his Corsi-Corsi, while it is consistent in his three years with the Caps (50.4 – 50.9; average of 50.6), is a step down from what he posted with the St. Louis Blues (average of 52.9 over seven seasons).  And, his shots per game dropped last season to 1.72 shots on goal per game, the lowest of his career.  Even in what has been a signature skill of his game – the Gimmick – was something of an off year.  Over his first nine seasons, no player taking a total of 20 shootout attempts had a better shooting percentage than Oshie (39-for-71/54.9 percent).  He was 1-for-4 in 2017-2018; 44 players with four or more shots had better shooting percentages.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 goals (he needs 13)
• 300 assists (he needs 23)
• 500 points (he needs 36)
• 150 power play points (he needs 11)
• 100 power play assists (he needs 11)

The Big Question…  Is there a “15 Percent Premium” that the Caps have to pay in return for Oshie’s production?

First, let’s define that “15 Percent Premium.”  T.J. Oshie has played 10 years in the NHL and has dressed for 665 games.  That represents 84.6 percent of all of the games in which he could have dressed.  He missed about 15 percent of those available games.  The percentage of games missed is lower in his three years with the Caps (9.8 percent), but the point remains the same.  Missing chunks of games has been an unfortunate attribute of Oshie’s history in the NHL.

But here is where it gets complicated.  Oshie plays bigger than his size.  Put another way, he’s a feisty sort of player, unafraid to mix it up (within the rules) with opponents.  But the feistier he is, at least by one measure, the more games he plays.  Oshie has played in at least 74 games five times in his 10-year career.  His top four years in hits per game came in such seasons.   Two of those seasons came with the Caps, his top two seasons in games played.

But those hits per game and games played do not track well with what his preferred contribution on the ice is – goal scoring.  In three of those four seasons that were his top hits per game seasons, he had three of his lowest goals-per-game seasons.

To further muddy the waters here, looking at his top three goals per game seasons, one of them (2015-2016 with the Caps, when he averaged 0.33 goals per game), one of them was his third-highest hits per game season (1.68), while another (2013-2014, when he averaged 0.27 goals per game) was among his lowest hits per game, in fact his very lowest of his 10 seasons (0.97). But (did we say this is complicated?) his top three seasons in hits plus goals per game are among his five seasons with at least 74 games played. 

The moral of this story might be that when Oshie is “leaning forward” mode – being the “hitter” rather than the “hittee,” he stays in the lineup more and is more productive.  But it does not come without risk.

In the end…

T.J. Oshie plays the game a bit closer to the edge than most players, and sometimes it costs him chunks of games.  Having moved into his early 30’s (he will be 32 in December), this is a concern, especially with his four-concussion history.  But players are not a la carte menus.  If you want “goal scorer,’ you might have to accept “susceptible to injury” with respect to Oshie.  While there have been those intermittent absences in three seasons with the Caps, he answered the call for each and every one of the 49 postseason games the Caps played, and he is tied for second on the team in goals scored over that span (18, with Evgeny Kuznetsov), behind Alex Ovechkin (25).  It paints a picture that resembles Thoreau, a player who cuts a broad swath and shaves close, who drives life into a corner, and reduces it to its lowest terms – goals, wins, and losses – with far more wins than losses.

Projection: 75 games, 25-34-59, plus-3

Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“Do not be in a hurry to succeed. What would you have to live for afterwards? Better make the horizon your goal; it will always be ahead of you.”

-- William Makepeace Thackeray

It took eight years, but Evgeny Kuznetsov arrived in 2017-2018. Taken 26^th overall in the 2010 entry draft (the same one in which Brett Connolly was taken sixth overall), it took that long for Kuznetsov to become one of the best offensive centers in the NHL.  In his fifth NHL season he set career highs in goals (27), points (83), power play goals (7), power play points (30), time on ice (18:49 per game), and shooting percentage (14.4 percent).  On his way to a 27-56-83, plus-3 season, he was a model of offensive consistency, only twice in 79 games going as many as three consecutive contests without a point.

His 83-point season gave Kuznetsov 219 points over his last three seasons, 17^th highest in the league over that span, one fewer than John Tavares, and seventh among centers (source: NHL.com).  In that same span he is one of 11 players (oddly enough, only three full time centers, joining Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid) to post at least two seasons of at least 75 points (Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane are the only ones to do it in each of the three seasons).

And, Kuznetsov took a big step up in the games that matter most.  After three lackluster postseasons in which he went a combined 11-8-19, minus-9, in 39 games, he went 12-20-32 (leading the league in playoff assists and points), plus-12.  It was good enough to earn him five of 18 first-place votes for the Conn Smythe Trophy as to the postseason’s most valuable player. 

But what moment that will be most vivid in the minds of Caps fans in 2018 might be that moment when he took his place alongside Dale Hunter, John Druce, Brian Bellows, Joe Juneau, Joel Ward, and Marcus Johansson – players in Capitals history who clinched a playoff series with a game-winning goal in overtime:

Odd Kuznetsov Fact…

Evgeny Kuznetsov is one of four centers over the past four seasons to take more than 3,500 faceoffs and have a winning percentage under 46 percent. 

Bonus Kuznetsov Odd Fact…

Kuznetsov’s overtime game-winning series-clinching goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins doubles the population of game-winning series-clinching goal scorers in Caps postseason series against the Pens.  He joined Calle Johansson, who had the game-winner in a 6-3 series-clinching win over Pittsburgh in Game 6 of the first round in 1994.

Fearless’ Take…

Evgeny Kuznetsov is one of 11 players in Capitals history to record at least 75 goals and at least 250 points in his first five years with the club.  And the list includes a lot of Capitals royalty.  He is one of seven centers in team history recording at least 0.50 assists per game (minimum:  250 games with the Caps). 

At age 26, he is entering what should l be his prime productive years.  One thing he has done along the way is become more efficient and, to a degree, more assertive as a shooter.  His shooting percentage has increased in each of his four full seasons in the league, from 8.7 percent in his rookie season to 14.4 percent last season, while posting 187 shots on goal (six short of his career high).  He has become, if not the 1-A choice on the power play, than the 1-B choice.  His power play ice time (3:27 last season) was almost equivalent to that of Nicklas Backstrom (3:31), and his 30 power play points was only one fewer than Alex Ovechkin for the team lead.  He is the only center other than Nicklas Backstrom with as many as 30 power play points in a season since Robert Lang did it in 2003-2004 (35 points).

Cheerless’ Take…

Before we go all ga-ga over Evgeny, there has been a bit of yo-you quality to his last four seasons – 37 points in 80 games in 2014-2015, followed by 77 points in 2015-2016, down to 59 points in 2016-2017, and then 83 points last season.  Then there are the on-ice performance numbers.  Over the three seasons before this one, his goal differential on-ice versus off ice were plus-13, plus-27, and plus-19 in 2016-2017.  This past season it was plus-7 (numbers from hockey-reference.com).  This might be a product of his becoming the first line center, with all the added attention that (and being Alex Ovechkin’s center) brings.  But that, and his being underwater on shot attempts-for on ice at 5-on-5 (48.6 percent) might make one wonder if he didn’t lean a bit too heavily on power plays (30 of 83 points last season).

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career games (he needs 60)
• 100 goals (he needs 20)
• 200 career assists (he needs 15)
• 300 career points (he needs 35)
• 200 penalty minutes (he needs 44)
• 20 power play goals (he needs one)
• 100 power play points (he needs 23)
• 6,000 minutes played (he needs 400)

The Big Question… Is Kuznetsov ready to take his place among the elite centers in the league?

Centers like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid spring fully formed (or as fully formed as a teenager can be) on the NHL landscape.  Most others, even those achieving elite status, need a bit of time to get there.  Evgeny Kuznetsov did not enter the league ranks as a teenager, delaying his entry into the NHL for almost four full seasons after he was drafted in 2010.  So, he came in as a more mature rookie than most, and his formative years took place in his mid-20’s rather than his early 20’s.  But with two 75-point seasons in his last three and his sterling performance in the 2018 postseason, all that remains for him to cement his place among the league centers is to display a consistency at this level of production with another 75-plus point season.  To do it three times in four seasons would be evidence to that end.  Only three players in the league have three such seasons in the last four – Patrick Kane (3), Jamie Benn (3), and Sidney Crosby (4).

In the end…

It is probably inaccurate to think of the Caps as having a number one and a number two center.  And that is a situation to be savored for Caps fans, one that plays no small role in the team’s success.  Nicklas Backstrom has been a center of number one stature and production for a decade.  Evgeny Kuznetsov gave every indication last season that he can, if he does not already, occupy such a position.   But Backstrom has done for that decade.  Kuznetsov is still on the low side of his prime years, and he has an opportunity in 2018-2019 to firmly establish himself as a true number one center based on a consistency of production. That is the horizon that now stretches out ahead of him.

Projection: 80 games, 28-60-88, plus-8

Photo: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“A tiger does not shout its tigritude, it acts.”

-- Wole Soyinka

It was shrouded in mystery.  What we know of Lars Eller being nicknamed “Tiger” is a bit sketchy.  But he lived up to his nickname in 2017-2018, and he personified the observation by the Nobel laureate, Wole Soyinka, that a tiger does not shout, it acts.  Eller posted career highs in goals (18) and points (38) last season, obliterating his previous bests (16 goals with Montreal in 2011-2012 and 30 points with the Canadiens in 2012-2013).  He also had career highs in even-strength goals (15), power play goals (3), shots on goal (161), and blocked shots (69) in a career-best tying 81 games played.  He finished the season on a goal scoring rush, posting 13 goals in his last 41 games.

His strong regular season performance, especially his late-season performance, carried over into the playoffs where he scored what might be two of the most consequential goals in Capitals history.  His game-winning goal in double overtime in Game 3 of the first round series against the Columbus Blue Jackets let the Caps avoid going in a 0-3 hole, made especially gut-wrenching in that all three losses would have been in overtime.  One could have envisioned a quick and quiet exit thereafter, not an uncommon theme before the 2018 postseason for this franchise, and a purging of the roster.  Then there was the last goal of the season, the game-winner in Game 5 against the Vegas Golden Knights with 7:37 left in regulation to complete a third period comeback and clinch the franchise’s first Stanley Cup win.

Odd Eller Fact…

Lars Eller is the only center for the Caps since the 2005-2006 season to record more than 15 goals in a season while averaging less than 16 minutes of ice time per game.  He had 18 goals last season while averaging 15:18 per game in ice time.

Bonus Odd Eller Fact…

Lars Eller had more game-winning goals in the postseason (three) than he did in the regular season (two).

Double Bonus Odd Eller Fact…

Lars Eller had more three-point games in the postseason (three) than he did in the regular season (one).  Get the feeling this guy was clutch down the stretch?

Fearless’ Take…

What Eller provided was another layer at depth where successful teams need it – down the middle.  Here is what that meant to the Caps.  Eller’s 18 goals gave the Caps three centers with at least 15 goals (Nicklas Backstrom had 21, and Evgeny Kuznetsov had 27), the only time they did it with three full-time centers since the 2004-2005 dark season.  In fact, it was the first time since the 1992-1993 season (Mike Ridley (26), Dale Hunter (20), and Michal Pivonka (21)).  He is one of 28 centers in team history to record 30 goals and 30 assists for the Caps, but he is only one of three to do it having played only two seasons with the Caps (Robert Lang and Rolf Hedberg are the others). If he should go 20-17-37 this coming season (not impossible), he’d become just the 19^th center in team history to be a career 50-goal/50-assist player with the franchise. 

Cheerless’ Take…

It is hard to figure out just what Eller’s last half of the regular season and postseason mean going forward.  Maybe things finally clicked for him, and he has settled into a situation that fits his skills and style.  He is a solid third line center who can even fill in as a second line center for stretches, as he did when Nicklas Backstrom injured his hand in the postseason, and he went 2-3-5, plus-2, in the four games (three of them wins) Backstrom missed.  But there is also the thought that his career performance to date did not suggest a coming out party in 2017-2018.  Until this season he was a dependable low teens goal scorer and high-20’s point getter.  Not quite what one might have expected from a 13^th-overall draft pick (2007).  And he started pretty quickly last season (3-8-11, even, in his first 16 games) before going into a prolonged dry spell (1-3-4, plus-1, over his next 21 games).  But even with that push at the end, looking at his ten-game splits he was a minus-13 over his last three segments.  It wasn’t all unicorns and accordions to end the regular season.

Potential Milestones:

• 250 career points (he needs 31)
• 100 even strength goals (he needs 13)
• 200 career even strength points (he needs 12)
• 100 points as a Capital (he needs 37)
• 10,000 minutes played (he needs 1,181)

The Big Question… Is the 2017-2018 production a new normal for Lars Eller?

If you are a Caps fan, two things are striking about Lars Eller’s 2017-2018 season.  First, his jump in scoring from 2016-2017 (12-13-25) to the 2017-2018 season (18-20-38) was reminiscent of his jump in scoring from his rookie season (7-10-17) to his sophomore season (16-12-28).  Second, he remained between 25 and 30 points over the following five seasons, including his first season in Washington.   Now, he took another big leap in production, and the question as the 2018-2019 season gets underway is whether this is another “quantum” leap in production that can be sustained.  Arguing in his favor is that he remains in his productive prime years (he will not turn 29 until next May), and he is likely to be centering familiar faces this season, what with so few changes on the roster overall.  On the other hand, were last year’s numbers juiced by a hot streak over the second half of the season?  But then again, that might signal a new normal.  This gets confusing.

In the end…

Lars Eller is an example of what happens when a team does not get sufficient secondary support on offense, and then when it does.  In the 2017 postseason he was generally quiet, posting no goals and five assists in 13 games, while going minus-2 (the only time he finished a postseason on the minus side of the ledger) in a second-round flame-out.  This past season he was one of the critical ingredients to the Caps’ playoff success (7-11-18, plus-6, in 24 games).  And, his ability to fill in for an injured Nicklas Backstrom only added to his value as a player who can to “be that guy.”  If he can post similar numbers, the Caps have a better chance of achieving similar success.  It depends on whether 2017-2018 was an outlier in his career arc, or it was a new normal.  The “tiger” announced his tigritude with action last season.  This season is about sustaining that level of feline ferocity.

Projection: 78 games, 17-22-39, minus-1

Photo: Kirk Irwin/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“My yesterdays walk with me. They keep step, they are gray faces that peer over my shoulder.”

-- William Golding

Brett Connolly was a big scorer in junior hockey.  In his last three seasons with the Prince George Cougars in the Western Hockey League, he scored 86 goals in 140 games.  He looked the part of a sixth-overall draft pick (by the Tampa Bay Lightning) in 2010.  His early career numbers in the NHL could not match that level of output, or even come close.  In his first five NHL seasons, split between the Lightning and the Boston Bruins, Connolly recorded 27 goals in 210 games.

And then, he came to the Washington Capitals as a free agent in 2016.  In Washington, Connolly settled into a third line role and found some measure of his old scoring touch.  He scored 15 goals in just 66 games in 2016-2017.  It was for him a career high and helped him earn a two-year/$3 million contract with the Caps. 

Connolly matched that goal total in 2017-2018 in 70 games played, one off his career best (71 games with the Boston Bruins in 2015-2016).  More important to the Caps’ success this past season, he atoned for a seven game postseason in 2017 in which he did not record a point by scoring six goals and posting nine points in the 24-game march to the Stanley Cup.  He was also a remarkable efficient shooter.  Of 571 players recording 50 or more shots on goal last season, Connolly finished third in shooting percentage (22.4), behind Colorado’s Alexander Kerfoot and Vegas’ William Karlsson (both at 23.4 percent).  No player in the NHL with 15 or more goals did it with less average ice time per game than Connolly (12:00).

Odd Connolly Fact…

Following off a comment above, Brett Connolly was the only player in the NHL last season to score 15 or more goals and do it averaging less than one shot on goal per game (0.96).

Fearless’ Take…

Brett Connolly might not get the attention or the appreciation he deserves for that basic skill of scoring goals.  He is one of five Capitals who recorded at least 15 goals in each of the last two seasons (Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov are the others.  He is one of six Caps to record at least ten even strength goals over the past two seasons (adding Lars Eller to the list above).  It is the sort of supplemental scoring successful teams need.  Last season the Caps lost only one game in regulation among the 14 contests in which Connolly scored a goal.

Cheerless’ Take…

Connolly has value as a goal scorer, but it doesn’t seem to extend to other parts of the game.  He has skated a total – not an average, a total – of 2:05 in shorthanded ice time in 136 games over two seasons with the Caps.  He did get more power play time last season (1:26 per game as a replacement for Justin Williams).  He was not especially effective in high level possession numbers (46.53 Corse-for percentage at 5-on-5/minus-2.04 Relative CF, both ninth among 13 Caps forwards playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Potential Milestones:

• 400 NHL games (he has 346)
• 200 Penalty minutes (he has 172)
• 500 shots on goal (he has 442)
• 5,000 minutes played (he has 4,098)
• 50 even strength goals (he has 45)

The Big Question…  Is Brett Connolly really that efficient?

Brett Connolly’s contributions on offense are predicated on a particular attribute – efficiency.  In 136 regular season games with the Caps, he has 30 goals on 148 shots, a 20.3 percent shooting percentage.  Of 559 players recording at least 100 shots on goal over the last two seasons, none have as good a shooting percentage (Montreal’s Paul Byron has a 19.9 percent shooting percentage).  And this begs the question, is Connolly that good or that lucky?  It has been quite a departure from his earlier career numbers.  Over his first five seasons with Tampa Bay and Boston, he had 27 goals on 294 shots, a 9.2 percent shooting percentage.  In half of the games in which he scored goals last season (seven of 14), Connolly scored on his only shot on goal.  Last season was the first in which he averaged less than a shot on goal per game. 

Here is a fact to keep in mind as this season begins for Connolly, coming off a 22.4 percent shooting percentage performance in 70 games.  Since the 2005-2006 season, only one player has had more than one season of appearing in at least 65 games and posting a shooting percentage over 20 percent.  Colorado’s Alex Tanguay did it three times.  There were 22 other players, including Connolly, who did it once. 

That shot volume will have to increase in frequency if his shooting percentage regresses.   However, there is that possibility.  Connolly did have an 18.5 percent shooting percentage in 2016-2017, his first with the Caps, and still posted 15 goals.  Even that percentage might be stretching possibilities, given that only Tanguay and Antoine Brunette have more seasons since 2005-2006 with playing in 65 games and a shooting percentage over 18.5 percent (three apiece).  Whether he can be as streaky as he has been in the past might tell the tale.  For instance, over an 11-game stretch last season (December 2 – December 28), Connolly had six goals on 11 shots (54.5 percent).

In the end…

Brett Connolly being reclaimed off the NHL scrap heap and becoming a productive player for the Caps is one of the better stories for the club over the past couple of years.  But the NHL never stands still, and upgrading when the opportunity presents itself is at or near the top of every general manager’s to-do list.  Connolly is entering the last year of a contract with a $1.5 million cap hit this season.  And, as the biggest offensive contributor among the forwards in the position of becoming an unrestricted free agent after this season (Devante Smith-Pelly is also an unrestricted free agent after this season, but he is not quite the offensive player Connolly is), there might some cause to look over his shoulder at a recent signing. 

At first glance, it would seem that the signing of free agent Sergei Shumakov is going to set up a battle at the right wing with Connolly to see who mans the third line on that side and who plays the right side on the fourth line.  It could give the Caps uncommon depth at right wing, with Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie, where it is possible that all four finish the upcoming season with double digits in goals.

Projection: 72 games, 15-13-28, even

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America