A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 40: Bruins 4 - Capitals 2

With a five-game road trip behind them and a two-game road trip ahead, the Caps hosted the Boston Bruins at Capital One Arena in Washington on Thursday night.  The Caps were coming off a tough 1-0 loss to the New York Islanders, while the Bruins were looking to win a second consecutive game after a 4-2 win in Philadelphia on Tuesday night.  The Caps fell into a 3-0 hole in the first 24 minutes, and it was too much to overcome as Boston skated to a 4-2 win.

First Period

It took Boston 33 seconds to take the lead.  Jeremy Lauzon’s shot from the left point, the first shot of the game, was muffled by goalie Ilya Samsonov, but he failed to find the puck beneath him, and the puck had just enough momentum to crawl over the goal line to put the Bruins up, 1-0.

Washington put themselves deeper in a hole when Tom Wilson was penalized for tripping at the 4:04 mark.  Washington killed the penalty, and they had a chance of their own to tie the game when Garnet Hathaway had a breakaway mid-way through the period, but his attempt was turned aside by goalie Jeremy Swayman.

Boston had its second power play of the game at the 6:33 mark when Brenden Dillon was sent off for cross-checking.  The Bruins did not convert the opportunity, but they doubled their lead, nevertheless, when a Justin Schultz tried to wrap the puck around the back of the Caps’ net, but the biscuit hit a stanchion behind the Caps net, ricocheted to the front of the net to Samsonov’s left, and was stuffed in by Anton Blidh at the 16:02 mark.

Washington had a chance to halve the lead when Charlie Coyle was sent to the penalty box for a hooking call at 16:31 of the period.  The Caps had one shot on goal but no goal to show for it. Things got interesting shortly thereafter when Nick Ritchie for the B’s and Hathaway for the Caps dropped the gloves at the 19:01 mark.  The two went off on coincidental majors, but Ritchie was docked an additional two minutes for slashing.  The Caps did not convert on the first half of the man advantage but would have 1:01 of power play time to work with in the second period, the teams going off after 20 minutes with Boston ahead, 2-0.

-- Boston overwhelmed the Caps in shots on goal, 17-9, and out-attempted them, 25-14.

-- John Carlson was the only Capital with two shots on goal.

-- Washingon had no missed shots in the period…small comfort.

-- Carl Hagelin led the club with two blocked shots.

Second Period

Washington did not convert on the power play that carried over into the second period and remained in an 0-2 deficit to the visitors.  The Caps did get another power play, though, when Jakub Zboril went to the box for tripping at 2:44 of the period.  It didn’t work out well for the Caps, who allowed a shorthanded goal to Brad Marchand at 4:09 of the period, Marchand toe-dragging the puck around a sliding Justin Schultz and beating Samsonov on a backhand to make it 3-0, Bruins.

Washington got the benefit of a 5-on-3 power play when Blidh was sent off for roughing and slashing at the 8:39 mark, and then Jakub Zboril was sent off for interference at 10:04.  Alex Ovechkin made short work of the first 5-on-3 power play when T.J. Oshie beat Patrice Bergeron on a faceoff back to John Carlson, who fed Ovechkin in his office for a one-timer that beat Swayman cleanly at 10:08 of the period.  Just 19 seconds later, T.J. Oshie got the Caps within one, converting the second potion of the 5-on-3 power play.  Oshie fed John Carlson the puck from the right wing circle and then skated through the middle to the left side, where he took a feed from Carlson, one-timing it past Swayman at 10:27 to make it a 3-2 game.

The Caps might have had a second double minor man advantage when Oshie was clipped in the nose by Matt Grzelcyk and bled from a cut, but there would be no penalty called.  Carl Hagelin was sent off for boarding at 14:45, but the Bruins could not convert to expand their lead.  The 3-2 Bruins lead was how the teams went off after two periods.

-- Washington outshot the Bruins, 13-6, in the period and out-attempted them, 21-13.

-- Tom Wilson had five shots on goal and seven shot attempts through two periods to lead the team.

-- Daniel Carr and Dmitry Orlov had four credited hits to lead the Caps through 40 minutes.

Third Period

The Caps and Bruins took coincidental penalties 6:43 into the period, Marchand for Boston and Hathaway for the Caps for unsportsmanlike conduct, a trade the Caps would make 11 times out of ten.  Washington went a man short late in the period when Daniel Carr was ticketed for hooking at 15:20 of the period.  Boston stuck a dagger in the Caps comeback hopes when Craig Smith converted the power play chance at the 16:55 mark.

The Caps emptied their net, called a late time out, and got a power play in the dying moments, but it was not enough, and the Caps fell, 4-2.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin’s second period goal was his 20^th of the season. He became the fourth player in league history to record 20 or more goals in each of his first 16 seasons (Marcel Dionne, Jaromir Jagr, Mats Sundin).

-- John Carlson had two assists, moving him to within three helpers of 400 as a Capital.  When he reaches that mark, he will be the fourth player in team history to do so (Nicklas Backstrom, Ovechkin, Michal Pivonka).

-- Ovechkin’s second period goal – a power play goal – gave him 266 power play goals for his career, breaking a tie with Brett Hull for second place all-time.  Only Dave Andrewchuk remains ahead of him (274).

-- Since shutting out New Jersey on March 26th, Ilya Samsonov has allowed four, six, four, and four goals in his last four games.

-- The Caps outshot the Bruins, 33-32, and out-attempted them, 58-56.

-- Washington won only 25 of 60 faceoffs (41.7 percent).  T.J. Oshie was the only Cap over 50 percent (5-for-9/55.6 percent).

-- Jakub Vrana… one shot on goal, one missed shot in 15:15 of ice time.  Work-in-progress might be the most charitable spin on his game at the moment.

-- Oshie was 1-1-2, had four of six shot attempts blocked, and finished minus-3.  Odd night.

-- Carl Hagelin was the only Caps skater without a shot attempt.

-- Tom Wilson led the Caps with five shots on goal; he and John Carlson had eight shot attempts.

In the end…

The Caps look like a team running on fumes.  When they make mistakes, they are disastrous blunders, they suddenly cannot score at 5-on-5, and they are giving their goalies little help.  Are problems fixable?  We’ll see.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 40: Capitals vs. Bruins, April 8

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After a string of 11 games that the Washington Capitals played against New York City area teams, they get the chance to trade apples for clam chowder when they host the Boston Bruins on Thursday night at Capital One Arena, their first game on home ice after a 2-3-0 road trip.  On the other side, the Bruins come to Washington having faithfully alternated wins and losses over their last nine games (5-2-2).

Over the season’s first 13 games, the Bruins had the best record in the league by points percentage (10-1-2/.846), led the league in scoring defense (2.00 goal allowed per game), and led the league in penalty killing (89.8 percent).  Since then, the Bruins are 10-9-4, 18^th in the league in points percentage (.522), 19^th in scoring defense (2.74 goals allowed per game), but still have the best penalty kill over that span (87.9 percent).

Part of that slump is due to an upper-body injury suffered in a game on March 7^th against the New Jersey Devils that has limited him to one appearance since (20 minutes with six saves on six shots in a 4-3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders on March 25^th).  Given his performance in advance of that March 7^th game, perhaps it was an lingering injury (2-2-1, 2.98, .896 from February 13^th through March 6th), but Rask’s absence left the number one goaltending duties to Jaroslav Halak (although circumstances have changed, which we note below).  He has been competent (4-3-2, 2.61, .908, one shutout since Rask’s injury), but not to a point where the Bruins can feel comfortable heading into the stretch run of the regular season.

Halak is now in his 15^th season in the NHL, and his record over his three seasons in Boston has been something of a slow bleed in performance.  He appeared in 40 games in 2018-2019, posting a record of 22-11-4, 2.34, .922, with five shutouts.  Last season he was 18-6-6, 2.39, .919, with three shutouts in 31 games and was part of the goaltending tandem that won the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals scored against them.  This season he is 9-5-3, 2.44, .910, with two shutouts in 17 games.  Not a collapse by any means, but there has been some erosion.  Worse, since starting the season 4-0-1, 1.38, .938, with one shutout, Halak is 5-5-2, 2.89, .901, with one shutout in 12 appearances.  He would normally be the expected starter in this game, but he was placed on the COVID protocol list earlier this week, leaving the Bruins likely to rely on Dan Vladar, who has only four NHL games on his resume and a 2-1-1, 2.25, .922 record in those contests.  It would be his first career appearance against the Caps.

Things happen when defenseman Charlie McAvoy is on the ice for the Bruins.  Since February 13^th, when the Bruins started their slump after a hot start, McAvoy has averaged 20:05 per game in even strength ice time, tops among all skaters on the team.  It might not be a surprise, therefore, that McAvoy has been on ice for more even strength scoring events than any other Bruin (25 goals scored for, 18 against, both most on the team over that period).

Personally, McAvoy has had a respectable scoring line over the 22 games he played over that span (3-8-11, plus-5), but it compares unfavorably on a points per game basis with his production over his first 12 games (1-10-11, plus-5).  His scoring contributions matter.  Although others like David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand get more attention for their offensive contributions, Boston is 13-1-2 this season when McAvoy posted at least one point, 6-9-4 in the 19 games in which he did not. Part of that is his setting up others for goals, the Bruins being 10-1-1 when he posted at least one assist without a goal of his own. McAvoy, who is listed as “day-to-day” with an upper body injury, is 1-4-5, plus-7, in four games against the Caps this season and 1-9-10, plus-9, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Since February 9, 2017, when he took over as interim head coach of the Boston Bruins (later named as a permanent replacement), Bruce Cassidy has led the Bruins to 181 wins, tied with the Caps for the second-most regular season wins over that period (Tampa Bay: 203 wins).  It is a far cry from the 47-47-7 (with nine ties) that Cassidy had in his first NHL head coaching post, that with the Caps from 2002-2003 to 2003-2004.  He had four postseason appearances in his first four seasons, his Bruins posting a 27-28 record, winning five playoff rounds, including three on their way to a Stanley Cup final appearance in 2019, where they lost to the St. Louis Blues in seven games.  Cassidy already occupies sixth place in regular season wins on the all-time Bruins head coaching list, and he has the fourth-best points percentage in Bruins history (.677). With three more games under his belt at the Bruins’ helm, he will have the best points percentage of any head coach in Boston history with more than 300 games as head coach.  Add to that a Jack Adams Award as top coach in the league in 2019-2020, and it is an impressive record of accomplishment for a coach who had his difficulties behind the Caps bench in his first NHL posting.  Cassidy is 4-6-4 against the Caps in his tenure as Boston’s head coach.

1.  Boston’s net penalty kill of 93.9 percent this season (accounting for shorthanded goals scored against) is the best in the league since New Jersey finished with a 95.4 percent net-PK in 2011-2012.

2.  In the little things done well category, Boston has been a master in the circle.  Since 2005-2006, they have the best overall faceoff winning percentage (51.8 percent).

3.  Teams have trouble getting started against Boston, which has yielded the fourth-fewest number of first period goals this season (23), but they have allowed 35 third period goals (tied for 12^th-fewest).

4.  Boston has not lost a game in regulation when leading after two period this season, but their winning percentage ranks tied for 15^th in the league (11-0-2/.846) with Vancouver.

5.  One-goal games have not been especially kind to the Bruins, given their status as a Stanley Cup hopeful.  Their 10-4-6 record is the 18^th-best winning percentage (.500) in the league.

1.  Washington leads the league in one-goal winning percentage (14-1-4/.737).

2.  Only three teams have scored first in more games than the Caps (23 times; Columbus (24), Carolina (24), and Colorado (27) with more), but they don’t do enough winning in those situations, their .696 winning percentage (16-5-2) ranking 15^th.

3.  Only Buffalo and Anaheim have had fewer power play chances (93 and 87, respectively) than the Caps (96).

4.  The Caps lead the league in 5-on-5 goals scored (97).

5.  Washington net penalties (penalties drawn less penalties taken) of minus-19 is second-worst in the league (Anaheim: minus-28).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Trent Frederic

Who leads the Bruins in game-winning goals?  David Pastrnak?  No.  Brad Marchand?  No.  Trent Frederic?  Bingo.  Three of Frederic’s four goals this season are game-winners.  Those happen to be his only four goals and only three game-winners in his brief career to date.  Frederic is not, and has not been known as much of a goal scorer, not in college (32 games in 66 games at the University of Wisconsin, a good total, but not elite), not in the AHL (27 goals in 127 games with Providence), and not in three seasons and 53 games with Boston (four goals).  He has developed quite a penalty minute record, though – 226 PIMs in those 127 games in Providence and 70 minutes in 53 games with Boston. 

His propensity for taking penalties this season has had a counter-productive quality to it.  Boston is 4-3-1 in the eight games in which he took penalties, 1-2-0 in the three games in which he recorded ten or more penalty minutes, the lone win coming when he accumulated 17 penalty minutes against the Caps (a season high for him) in a 5-1 win on March 5^th, a game in which he recorded one of his game-winning goals this season.  Being productive offensively has had more beneficial effect on wins and losses, not unsurprising for a secondary scorer.  Boston is 5-0-0 in the five games in which he has points this season.  Oddly enough, he had plus ratings in four of them; he has only five “plus” games this season.  Frederic is 1-0-1, even, in four games against the Caps this season, 1-0-1, minus-1, in six career games against Washington.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

It is cliché at this point to describe Nicklas Backstrom’s game as “quiet consistency.”  This season has not been an exception.  He is averaging a point per game (39 points in 39 games), slightly better than his career 0.97 points per game mark.  He has points in 28 of those 39 games, the Caps posting a record of 19-7-2 in those games.  He does not have consecutive games without a point this season.  His points per month have been almost identical over the first three full months – 13 in January, 12 in February, 12 in March.  He has goals against each of the East Division teams he has faced, except against the New York Rangers (no goals, but four points in four games).  He has been on-ice for 19 of the 23 power play goals scored by the Caps this season, not inconsistent with his role as power-play quarterback almost since he first stepped on the ice for the Caps in the 2007-2008 season. 

When Backstrom plays in five more games to reach 1,000 in his career, he will rank in the top-50 all-time in points per game among the 350 players with 1,000 or more games played.  And his consistency is not limited to the offensive end of the ice.  His on-ice goal differential at even strength this season is plus-6, third-best among Caps forwards.  He has received votes for the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward ten times in 13 seasons before this one.  What Backstrom has not had recently is a multi-point game.  He has gone ten games without one, his longest such streak of the season.  For a player with 254 multi-point games in his career (one every 3.92 games over his career), it seems almost like a slump.  Backstrom is 1-3-4, plus-1, in four games against Boston this season and 9-37-46, plus-16, in 44 career games against the Bruins.

In the end…

Washington goes into this game having played in three straight one-goal games, one of them settled in overtime (2-1-0).  The Caps, like every team in the league, is at a point, given the unique circumstances of this season, where mental and physical strain seem indistinguishable.  This is where the Caps, as a veteran team, suffer the effects of a double-edge sword – they have a lot of experience with the grind of a regular season and its ebbs and flows, but they are also a team with a lot of miles on it, and the wear might be showing.  Boston, a team that is strong in all facets of the game, provides no respite.  Perhaps the home ice, such as it is with no fans, will provide enough for the Caps to take to the road afterward in a good frame of mind.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 3

A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 39: Islanders 1 - Capitals 0

The Washington Capitals made their second trip to Long Island in less than a week to face the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum.  They were hoping for a different result than what they suffered on April Fools’ Day, an 8-4 thrashing at the hands of the Isles.  New York was hoping to climb into a standings points tie with the Caps at the top of the East Division.  Both clubs entered the contest with two-game winning streaks.  It would be the Islanders extending their winning streak to three games, shutting out the Caps, 1-0.

First Period

New York had the first man advantage of the contest when Tom Wilson was whistled for tripping at the 6:02 mark.  The Islanders managed one shot on goal on their power play but failed to score.  The Caps got their first power play late in the period, Mathew Barzal going off for interference with 16.4 seconds left in the frame.  That Caps did not score but would carry 1:43 of the man advantage to the second period.  That would be it for the excitement, the teams retiring to their respective locker rooms in a scoreless tie.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 12-7, in the period an out-attempted them, 22-11.

-- Justin Schultz was the only Capital with two shots on goal in the first period.

-- Washington won just eight of 22 faceoffs in the period (36.4 percent); Lars Eller the only Capital taking more than one draw finishing the period over 50 percent (3-for-5/60.0 percent).

Second Period

The Caps could not convert the remainder of the power play that carried over from the first period, failing to get a shot on goal in the time available.  They were awarded another power play mid-way through the period when Anthony Beauvillier was hit with a penalty for closing his hand on the puck at the 9:29 mark.  Washington did not score on this power play, either, recording one shot on goal.  Neither team would rustle the net twine in the period, and after 40 minutes, still scoreless.

-- Washington outshot the Islanders, 12-7, in the period and out-attempted them, 26-12.

-- Justin Schultz, Zdeno Chara, and Tom Wilson each had three shots on goal through 40 minutes. 

-- John Carlson did not have a shot attempt but did have three hits.  Brenden Dillon led the team in hits with four.

Third Period

New York went to the power play 4:34 into the period when Carl Hagelin was sent off for slashing.  New York failed to convert, despite three shots on goal, and the teams played on, scoreless.

New York finally broke the ice when the Caps could not clear the puck out of their own end and a shot from the right point by Ryan Pulock was put back by Brock Nelson through goalie Vitek Vanecek’s legs at the 13:05 mark.  The Caps pulled Vanecek late but could not convert with the extra skater, and the Islanders skated off, 1-0 winners.

Other stuff…

-- This was the 11^th game this season in which the Caps allowed one or fewer goals.  They are now 10-1-0 in those games.

-- Vitek Vanecek allowed one goal on 39 shots, the most shots he faced in a road game and lost this season.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 39-29, and out-attempted them, 62-54.

-- Zdeno Chara, Tom Wilson, and Conor Sheary led the Caps with four shots apiece.

-- Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with seven shot attempts.

-- Ovechkin, Garnet Hathaway, and Brenden Dillion led the Caps with four credited hits apiece.

-- Despite being in an early hole on faceoff wins, the Caps went 28-for-57 for the game (49.1 percent).  Lars Eller was 8-for-12 (66.7 percent).

-- The Caps were credited with only three takeaways (Ellerr, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov).

-- Kuznetsov had four of his six shot attempts blocked.

-- Three of the Islanders’ missed shots were shots off posts.

In the end…

Tough loss.  Put it aside, get ready for Boston on Thursday.  No time to sulk.

 

 

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Capitals at Islanders, April 6

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the scene of their worst loss of the season on Tuesday night, the smell of the 8-4 loss to the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum still fresh.  The Caps shook off that loss in their next two games, sweeping the New Jersey Devils in a two-game set to sweep the season series, but it is the Islanders that the Caps might face down the road, and making a statement that a shellacking such as they suffered last week is not to be repeated has to be on their minds.  On the other side, the Isles have had one contest since their blowout win, a 3-2 Gimmick win over the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.  It lifted their record to 5-2-0 over their last seven games.

Rookies can have a hard time cracking a Barry Trotz-coached lineup, but that has not been the case with Oliver Wahlstrom, who has dressed for 31 games as a rookie this season (after appearing in nine games last season), all of them in the last 32 Islander contests.  He ranks highly among his rookie cohort, standing fourth in goals scored (nine), tied for eighth in points (16), tied for 12^th in plus-minus rating (plus-4), tied for second in power play points (seven), eighth in shots on goal (64), and eighth in shooting percentage (14.1; minimum: 20 shots on goal).

Wahlstrom has paid early returns to justify his selection as the 11^th overall pick in the 2018 Entry Draft.  He ranks eighth in his draft class in goals (nine) and 11^th in points (16). He has been getting more ice time as a result of his performance.  After averaging 10:51 per game over his first 15 games this season, he averaged 13:01 over his last 16 games.  Wahlstrom had a hot streak over seven games in mid-March, going 5-2-7, plus-2, but he is without a point in his last four games.  He is 2-0-2, minus-1, in three games against the Caps this season, his only career appearances against the Caps to date.

Defenseman Noah Dobson was taken one spot after Wahlstrom in that same 2018 Entry Draft, the fifth defenseman taken in the first 12 picks of that draft, one that was rich in defensemen at the top (Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Adam Boqvist, Ty Smith, and K’Andre Miller were taken in the top 22 picks, in addition to Dobson).  Now in his sophomore season, Dobson has already established career highs in goals (three), assists (nine), points (12), plus-minus-rating (plus-7), shots on goal (44), and average ice time (16:42 per game).

Dobson was a casualty of COVID protocols, missing eight games before returning to the ice last Thursday against the Capitals.  It was an unfortunate interruption for Dobson, who was 2-3-5, plus-7, in ten games before he was laid up.  The Islanders were 4-4-0 in the eight games he missed.  If there is an odd fact associated with his play this season, the Islanders are 10-1-2 in 13 games in which he skated less than 16 minutes.  Dobson is 1-1-2, plus-1, in three games against Washington this season and 1-1-2, plus-2, in five career games against the Caps.

1.  Three of the last four Islander wins have come in extra time, their 8-4 win over the Caps being the exception.

2.  The Islanders have the best record on home ice this season by points percentage (15-1-2/.889).

3.  New York has the best scoring offense on home ice this season (3.94 goals per game) and the best home ice goal differential (plus-1.83).

4.  The Islanders and Carolina are the only teams in the league in the top-five in both net power play (NYI: 27.3 percent/4^th; CAR: 35.1 percent/1^st) and net penalty kill (NYI: 94.1 percent/2^nd; CAR: 92.6 percent/3^rd).

5.  New York leads the league in home ice winning percentage when trailing first in games (6-1-0/.857).

1.  Washington remains the only team in the East Division with at least ten wins both at home (13-4-2) and on the road (12-5-2).

2.  The Caps have the best last ten-game record in the East (7-3-0) and are tied for the longest winning streak (two games…it’s a competitive division).

3.  Washington has the fourth-worst net power play on the road this season (10.6 percent, after shorthanded goals are accounted for).

4.  On the other hand, the Caps have the fourth-best net penalty kill on the road (88.7 percent).

5.  Washington has 22 first period goals on the road this season, second-highest in the league (St. Louis: 23).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Cal Clutterbuck

If you want a trivia question to impress your friends and confound your enemies, here is one… “Who was taken with the pick after Brad Marchand was taken by the Boston Bruins in the 2006 Entry Draft?"  You know by now that it was Cal Clutterbuck, taken in the third round (72^nd overall) by the Minnesota Wild.  He spent eight years in Minnesota, where he immediately established a reputation as an enthusiastic hitter.  In each of his first three full seasons, 2008-2009 through 2010-2011, he recorded more than 300 hits, one of only four players over that period to post at least one such season and the only one to do it more than once (Brooks Orpik, Tuomo Ruutu, and Dustin Brown were the others).  He has hardly slowed down.  In his 13 full seasons in the NHL, including this one, he has been credited with more hits than any skater (3.265) and ranks fourth among all skaters with at least 1,000 hits over that period in hits-per-60 minutes (213.7).

Clutterbuck hasn’t slowed much in his enthusiasm for hitting, but his offense has tailed off.  After posting 96 goals and 168 points over 572 games and nine seasons with Minnesota and the Islanders, including six seasons with double-digit goals, he has only 27 goals (no double-digit goal seasons) and 77 points in 288 games over his last five seasons, including this one.  He is in a slump at the moment with one point (an assist) over his last 13 games, but over that span he is still second in the league in credited hits (60).  Clutterbuck is 0-2-2, minus-2, in four games against the Caps this season and 7-6-13, minus-3, in 32 career games against Washington.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Cal Clutterbuck is not the only player who will take the ice Tuesday who is enthusiastic about his physical game. With his next credited hit, Tom Wilson will have 100 career hits in only 32 games against the Islanders, second among active Capitals (Alex Ovechkni: 116).  His 108.7 hits per 60 minutes lead active Caps by a wide margin and rank fifth among all NHL skaters appearing in at least 30 games against the Isles. 

That, however, is but a part of Wilson’s game these days.  With 0.31 goals per game, he on a pace to finish with his third consecutive season over 0.30 goals per game, and his 0.79 points per game is on pace to establish a career high by a considerable margin (0.65 points per game last season).  Wilson’s 2.75 points per 60 minutes lead all Capitals appearing in at least 20 games.  And, his roles are varied.  For example, he is the only forward on the team this season averaging at least 1:00 of ice time both on power plays and penalty kills.

Wilson came out of his seven-game suspension in March smartly.  Since returning to the ice on March 20^th, he is 2-4-6, even, with two multi-point games over eight games.  Wilson has also built a consistency into his game of late, only twice going consecutive games without a point over his last 13 contests. Not Connor McDavid consistency, but for someone with a reputation among fans as being little more than fists with a helmet, it is evidence of his continuing to build a more well-rounded game.  Wilson is 1-1-2, minus-3, in two games against the Islanders this season, 6-7-13, minus-3, in 31 career games against New York.

In the end…

It does not get simpler than this.  Players might downplay this as another game against a team with which they are fighting for the top spot in the East Division, but that 8-4 loss has to sting still.  Everything that could go wrong seemed to in that game, starting with goalie Ilya Samsonov getting decked by a teammate 30 seconds into the contest and having to take a seat for a while.  On the other hand, it was the first loss suffered by the Caps on the road against the Islanders in the Barry Trotz era on Long Island (4-1-0).  Four wins is good, five is better.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 12

Week 12 was an up-and-down week for the Caps, mostly down with two big losses sandwiched between two tight wins.  Nevertheless, the Caps did finish the week with the best record in the East Division, but they are hanging on by a thread to that top spot, by a tie-breaker over the New York Islanders.

Record: 2-2-0

It was the worst week, record-wise, for the Caps since Week 6, when they also went 2-2-0.  In the intervening five weeks they were 14-2-1, so perhaps a correction was due.  The problem was that even with a lackluster 2-2-0 record for the week, the week was worse than that.  A three-goal loss and two one goal wins, one of them coming after the Caps took a 3-0 lead into the final period, to teams well below them in the standings (New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils), plus their worst loss of the season – an 8-4 shellacking by the New York Islanders – made for a more disappoint week than the record would suggest.  When one considers that the last 11 games on the Caps’ regular season schedule include seven against playoff-eligible teams and a pair against a Rangers team against which the Caps have struggled, leaving points on the table in Week 12 is something the Caps cannot afford to repeat next week.

Offense: 3.25/game (season: 3.38 / 3rd)

The Caps did not lack for offense, although it was a bit top-heavy in Week 12.  John Carlson and T.J. Oshie (three goals apiece) accounted for almost half of the 13 goals the Caps scored in four games.  Six other Caps had goals, Tom Wilson among them with the only other multi-goal week (two).  There was more balance in the point production, 16 of the 19 skaters to dress for the week posting at least one.  Oshie led the point-getters with five, followed by John Carlson (four).  Nicklas Backstrom, Dmitry Orlov, and Tom Wilson had three points apiece.  Three Caps finished the week with double-digit totals in shots – Alex Ovechkin (13), Oshie (12), and Wilson (11).  All 19 skaters dressing for the week had at least one.

As a group, the Caps were reasonably efficient shooting the puck, finishing the week with an 11.2 shooting percentage, ninth-best in the league.  Individually, seven Caps were over ten percent, John Carlson leading all skaters with three goals on eight shots, a 37.5 shooting percentage.  T.J. Oshie (3-for-12/25.0 percent) and Nic Dowd (1-for-5/20.0 percent) finished at 20 percent or better.

If there was an odd fact about the Caps’ offense in Week 12, it centered on Brenden Dillon.  He had only one point for the week (an assist) but he was on ice for more even strength goals than any other Capital (seven), and there is more to this story below.

Defense: 4.50/game (season: 3.00 / T-19th)

Where did it all go wrong?  The Caps had a decent week in limiting shots on goal (29.0 per game, tied with the Islanders for 11^th-fewest).  And although they allowed more shot attempts at 5-on-5 (168) than any other team except Minnesota (170), they were tied for the 13^th-fewest shot attempts allowed at fives per game (42.0, with Detroit).

Where it breaks down is in the quality of chances.  Only two teams allowed more high danger scoring chances in Week 12 than the Caps (41),   and they were far and away the worst team in allowing goals in high danger scenarios (14), almost double the total Boston had (eight).

Back to Brenden Dillon.  Not only was he on ice for more even strength goals scored than any Capital for the week, he was on ice for more even strength goals against than any other skater (eight).  None of the 19 skaters dressing for the week was spared an up-close and personal look at even strength goals against. In fact, there were none who were on ice for fewer than two goals against; all six of the defenseman were on ice for three or more even strength goals against.  The breakdown was a team effort.

Goaltending: 4.20 / .833  (season: 2.76 / .902 / 2 shutouts)

Bad defense was not bailed out by good goaltending.  Vitek Vanecek had the better week, but it was nothing to put in the scrapbook.  In just under 140 minutes of work over three games, he went 1-1-0 (one no-decision), 3.01, .879.  it was a case of starting and finishing poorly.  He stopped 21 of 24 first period shots (.875 save percentage) and 14 of 17 third period shots (.824), which more than negated a fine performance in second periods (13-for-14/.929).  He did make up some of the misery with a fine overtime performance against New Jersey in which he stopped excellent chances from Travis Zajac and Jack Hughes to give the Caps an opportunity to win and grab a needed extra standings point.

Ilya Samsonov had a week he might like to forget, and given the circumstances might have little memory of some of it.  He recorded (earned seems a bit much) the win to open the week, a 5-4 win over the Rangers, but he allowed four goals on nine shots to make what should have been a laugher a nail-biter.  That was the better of his two games for the week.  Against the Islanders on Thursday, he collided with T.J. Oshie behind his own net and was dazed, going off to clear his head.  He would return to action with the Caps down, 2-1, and endured a barrage over the remainder of the contest that ended with him allowing six goals on 24 shots.  For the week he stopped only 34 of 44 shots (.773 save percentage) and played to a 5.81 goals against average. 

Power Play: 2-for-9 / 22.2 percent (season: 24.2 percent / 7th)

Reasonably efficient on a per-opportunity basis, but the recurring theme is “too few chances.”  The Caps’ 2.25 chances per game in Week 12 ranked tied for 21^st in the league and below their 29^th-ranked average of 2.46 chances per game for the season.  This week, they just could not finish.  Recording 17 shots in 13:27 of power play time is a pretty good shots-to-minutes rate, but two goals on those 17 shots?  One expects more efficiency from a power play with this much talent than 11.8 percent.  That is below their league-leading overall shooting percentage (12.1 percent).

What success the Caps did have came the middle of the power play setup, something they have seemed to lack of late.  T.J. Oshie had both power play goals for the Caps for the week.  On the other hand, it has been a while since Alex Ovechkin has had one.  His streak without a power play goal reached eight games at week’s end.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-10 / 90.0 percent (season: 82.0 percent / 10th)

The Caps were better on this side of special teams.  It might have been the best area of play overall for the week.  Nine of ten shorthanded situations killed.  Only 2.50 chances allowed per game (tied for 13th-fewest in the league).  Only five shots allowed in 17:34 of shorthanded ice time.  The only blemish was a late power play goal in the first game of the week that made things too interesting at the end of a 5-4 Caps win over the Rangers.

Faceoffs: 123-for-226 / 54.4 percent (season: 49.2 percent  / 20th)

Week 12 was an example of the idea that faceoffs, in general, don’t really matter much in the larger scheme of wins and losses.  The Caps had the third-best faceoff winning percentage for the week (54.4 percent) but finished with a .500 week in wins and losses. 

What was noteworthy in the overall numbers was the discrepancy between offensive and defensive ends of the ice.  The Caps won only 44.0 percent of 75 offensive draws for the week, but they won 61.0 percent of the 59 defensive draws taken.  That difference between offensive and defensive end draws taken and their results suggest the Caps wasted some opportunities in the offensive end to get possession and apply pressure.

Individually, it was a good week for Caps taking more than ten draws.  Only T.J. Oshie, who won nine of 20 faceoffs, finished under 20 percent among the five players in that group.  But there was that offensive/defensive zone issue.  Only Nic Dowd among the five won more than 50 percent of his offensive zone draws, but he took only five (4-for-5/80.0 percent).  On the other hand, the four players in that group of five who took defensive zone draws (Oshie took none) all finished over 60 percent in the defensive end.

Goals by Period:

Third periods…ugh.  The Caps allowed ten third period goals in the four games, the late game leakiness continuing to be an issue.  It was a matter made worse by anemic offense in the third periods overall, the Caps finishing with two third period goals for the week.  The result of the generosity in the third periods of games is that the Caps finished the week having tied for the fifth-highest number of third period goals allowed for the season (46) and taking residence in a neighborhood they would just as soon avoid.  The teams with more third period goals allowed – Arizona (47), Chicago (47), Anaheim (48), and Detroit (49) – all rank in the lower half of the league standings, and only Arizona among them is playoff-eligible, barely.

Year-over-Year:

The 2-2-0 week left the Caps still behind last year’s club at similar points of the season.  If there is a big difference in any year-over-year category that merits attention, it is in the 5-on-5 shot attempts generated.  This year’s Caps are running 7.6 percent behind last year’s club in this category, and they are not making it up with a proportionate reduction in shot attempts allowed at fives.  In other categories, the Caps show evidence of better discipline.  First, they seem to be managing the puck better, the volume of giveaways with which they are charged being 28.7 percent lower than at a similar point last season.  Then there are the penalties, down 18.9 percent from last season, and the penalty minutes, down 20.2 percent from last year.

In the end…

Losing to the Islanders on Long Island is not a completely unexpected result.  The margin of victory and breadth of the defensive collapse were.  But that aside, losing to the Rangers has become an unwelcome habit, one that could cost the Caps the top spot in the East Division when the points are tallied at the end of the season.  The Caps are entering what looks to be a portion of the schedule in which they have to earn points consistently against weaker teams.  Over their next eight games, five will be against clubs not currently playoff eligible (Philadelphia and Buffalo twice, and New Jersey).  Come out of that with a record similar to what the Caps had this week, and an East Division title might prove out of reach.

Three Stars:

• First Star: T.J. Oshie (3-2-5, plus-1, two power play goals, one game-winning goal, 25.0 shooting percentage, no shots missed in 17 shot attempts)
• Second Star: John Carlson (3-1-4, minus-3, recorded seventh two-goal game of his career, passed Mike Green and Calle Johansson for third place in goal scoring among defensemen in Caps history (115))
• Third Star: Dmitry Orlov (1-2-3, minus-4, one overtime/game-winning goal, 20:31 in average ice time, tied Robert Picard for 11^th place in goals in franchise history (42) and is one short of reaching the top-ten (Ken Klee: 43))