Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mike Ribeiro

Mike Ribeiro

“The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.”

-- John Foster Dulles

When the Washington Capitals traded Cody Eakin and a draft pick to the Dallas Stars for Mike Ribeiro on June 22, 2012, folks might have been pardoned for thinking that the Caps solved a long-standing problem – finding someone who could reliably center the second line.  The Capitals did not have what one might call an incumbent in that position since Sergei Fedorov played 52 games there in the 2008-2009 season. 

Oh, they tried, all right.  Brendan Morrison got a shot for one season.  Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson, Mathieu Perreault, Jason Arnott, Eric Belanger… all of them had a turn (or more). 

With Mike Ribeiro, the Caps had a bona fide scoring line center with eight consecutive seasons of more than 50 points on his resume.  The Caps did not have a full-time center not named “Backstrom” record 50 points in a season since Michael Nylander had 56 points in 2002-2003.

Ribeiro was as advertised.  He finished second on the club in total scoring (49 points), third in goals, tied for first in the league in power play scoring (with teammate Alex Ovechkin).  He was arguably the Caps’ most valuable player in the first half of the season, going 9-19-28, plus-3 in his first 22 games.

But all was not smooth sailing, at least at 5-on-5.  Ribeiro spent most of his 5-on-5 ice time in the 2013 season with Troy Brouwer and Alex Ovechkin.  He also spent large chunks of full and even strength time with Jason Chimera and Brooks Laich.  In the case of Brouwer, Ovechkin, and Laich, those players fared worse in terms of team goals scored for per 20 minutes (GF20 at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) skating with Ribeiro than they did when apart.

Ribeiro’s 5-on-5 possession numbers were nothing to get excited about, either.  Among 14 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, he had the second worst raw Corsi on-ice value and the second worst Corsi on-ice relative to off-ice.  And there was the matter of his taking more than twice as many penalties per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time as he drew.

We can put his even strength effectiveness in another context.  Ribeiro tied for 71^st in even strength points this season, one point behind Chicago’s Bryan Bickell and one more than the player for whom he was traded, Cody Eakin.

Even on the power play there was a sense of there being less there than a first look might suggest.  Yes, Ribeiro tied for the league lead in power play points with teammate Alex Ovechkin.  His six power play goals tied for 18^th in the league, but he had only one power play goal in his last 32 games.  He did close with a rush in power play assists, recording eight in his last eight games of the regular season, but that came after recording only three power play assists in his previous 18 games.

Odd Ribeiro Statistic… “29.0.”  Mike Ribeiro connected on nine of 31 shots on goal in his first 22 games, a 29.0 percent shooting percentage.  He was only four for 32 in his last 26 games (12.5 percent) but still finished fifth in the league at 20.6 percent.  It was the second time in his career he finished over 20 percent for the season in shooting percentage (25.2 percent in 2007-2008 with Dallas).

Game to Remember… April 20^th at Montreal.  It might seem odd that the game picked here would be one in which Mike Ribeiro did not record a shot attempt, but he was a factor nonetheless.  It was his faceoff win against Lars Eller back to Karl Alzner that started a play on which Troy Brouwer scored barely a minute after the Caps took a 1-0 lead in the first period.  It was Ribeiro winning a battle along the wall against Francis Bouillon, sliding the puck to Marcus Johansson, who fed Brouwer for another goal to make it 3-0.  Then, with the score 4-0 and the Caps on a power play, it was Ribeiro faking a shot from the right point, and starting a ‘round-the-horn passing play, feeding Mike Green, who sent the puck along to Alex Ovechkin for a shot from the left-wing circle that beat goalie Carey Price.  Ribeiro had three assists in the 5-1 win at Bell Centre, his first three-assist game since October 15, 2011 with the Dallas Stars against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Game to Forget… March 10^th vs. New York Rangers.  After a three-game winning streak to start the month of March, during which Ribeiro was 3-3-6, plus-5, the Caps laid an egg on Long Island, losing to the Islanders, 5-2.  The Caps were looking to get back on track at home against the Rangers.  The Rangers would have none of it, though, and Ribeiro had a forgettable game.  In 20:39 of ice time he managed just one shot on goal, lost the only faceoff he took, was sent off for a roughing penalty in the third period, and was on ice for three of the four Ranger goals in a 4-1 Caps loss.

Post Season… The warts that might have been hidden in Ribeiro’s regular season, especially at even strength, came out in the first round series loss to the Rangers.  His 20-plus shooting percentage of the regular season did not make itself known in the series, scoring only one goal on 13 shots in the seven-game series (it did happen to be the overtime game-winning goal in Game 5).  He had one assist, that coming in a Game 2 win. He happened to be on ice for the last four Ranger goals and then took a ten-minute misconduct in the last four minutes in the 5-0 Game 7 loss.  He finished 1-1-2, minus-2 for the series.

In the end…

Was Mike Ribeiro the solution to the second line center problem the Caps have had?  That is not an easy question to answer.  He was certainly more productive than any second line center the Caps have had in at least a decade.  Then again, a lot of that production was obtained on the league’s best power play, he being the trigger man from the goal line extended on the top unit.  At even strength his 0.46 points-per-game was not significantly different from Marcus Johansson’s 0.48 even strength points per game in 2011-2012.  That unremarkable even strength production became important in the playoffs against the Rangers, and it contributed to the Caps’ demise, the team scoring only nine-even strength goals in the seven-game series.

The question now becomes, “is Mike Ribeiro the answer as the second-line center going forward?”  The realities of the salary cap might answer that question for the Caps.  There is not much room to do what the club might like to do in re-signing restricted free agents Karl Alzner or Marcus Johansson.  The other part of the issue is even if the Caps could afford Ribeiro, who might sign a contract north of the $5.0 million cap hit that is expiring, would it be a value signing given the level of even-strength contribution he made this season?  And if not him, then to whom do the Caps turn to solve the perennial problem of who centers the second line?

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault

“One that would have the fruit must climb the tree.”

-- Thomas Fuller

Looking at Mathieu Perreault’s 2013 season with the Caps it is helpful to take a moment and look back at how he got here.  Caps fans will recall that he was a sixth-round pick in the 2006 Entry Draft, the 177^th overall pick.  From that draft, 85 draftees have seen at least one game of NHL action, 74 of them skaters.  Only one of those 74 skaters picked after Perreault – Derek Dorsett (drafted by Columbus 189^th overall, now of the New York Rangers) – has played in more NHL games than the 159 recorded by Perreault through the 2013 season.  No player picked after Perreault has more goals than the 33 he has, and he has more goals than 43 skaters selected ahead of him.  Only 25 of those skaters have more career points.

Perreault has come a long way.

That said, he is still a player in search of a role.  Perreault, normally thought of as an offense-oriented player, logged most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr, with a healthy sprinkling of time with Joel Ward thrown in.  These three are not generally thought of as offensive drivers, but Perreault seemed to get more out of them on that side of the puck than others with whom they played.  In the case of all three, they recorded more team goals for at 5-on-5 per 20 minutes (GF20 at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) with Perreault than they did when apart from him.  Their possession numbers were better with Perreault as well, as their Corsi for and Corsi against per 20 minutes at 5-on-5 attest (stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

What Perreault lacked individually was a sense of consistency, at least as revealed in his “tens.”  He played in only five of the Caps’ first ten games, failing to record a point.  He lit up in the next two ten-game splits, playing in a total of 16 of the 20 games, going 5-7-12, plus-7 in those contest.  He regressed in his fourth ten-game split, playing in all ten games to a 0-1-1, minus-2 scoring line, then rebounding some in his last eight games with a 1-3-4, plus-4 finish.

Perreault did evidence a gift for setting up teammates.  At 5-on-5 no Capital forward had a better first assists-per-60 minutes figure than Perreault.  And this was with players, by and large, who are not consistent goal scorers. And whatever one’s impression of Perreault’s defense, the results while he was on the ice did not feed a narrative of his being suspect on that side of the puck.  At 5-on-5, among 14 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games he had the fifth best goals against per 60 minutes and had a positive differential between goals scored against on ice versus goals scored against off ice (+0.23; numbers from behindthenet.ca). 

His individual possession numbers looked good as well, recording the second best raw Corsi on-ice and the second-best Corsi on-ice relative to off-ice.  It all translated into a PDO value (sum of shooting percentage and save percentage on ice) that was second best on the team at 5-on-5 among forwards playing in at least 20 games.  The picture painted is one of a solid year, but there is a “but”…

Odd Perreault Statistic… “Two.”  Here is the "but."  In 22 games against teams outside the Southeast Division, Perreault recorded a total of two even-strength points, both in the same game, a 5-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres on St. Patrick’s Day when he recorded a goal and an assist.

Game to Remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  It was a long road that the Caps took to their April 23^rd game against the Winnipeg Jets, but there they were, finally in a position to clinch the Southeast Division.  The Caps started fact with goals from Matt Hendricks and Jason Chimera in the first period, Perreault earning he primary assist on the latterwhen he played catch behind the Jets’ net with Chimera before setting him up for the score in front of goalie Ondrej Pavelec.  Winnipeg tied the game with a pair of goals in the second period, then Nicklas Backstrom returned the Caps to the lead late in the period.  The period might have ended with the Caps up, 3-2, but Perreault converted what would be a broken play with less than three minutes left in the period.  It started when Perreault entered the Jet’s zone in the middle of the ice.  He left a drop pass for Eric Fehr, who had his shot attempt blunted by the stick of Alexander Burmistrov.  Jack Hillen followed up on the loose puck and fired it on goal, Pavelec making the initial save.  But Perreault stuck his nose – or more precisely, his stick – into the pile and chipped the puck past Pavelec.  When Winnipeg scored in the third period, that became the potential game-winning goal, and when the Caps held on for the 5-3 win, it was the Division-clinching goal for the Caps.

Game to Forget… January 19^th at Tampa Bay. With a new coach in town, players want to make a good first impression.  Even those who might be role players, such as Mathieu Perreault.  Such was the case on Opening Night when the Caps took the ice in Tampa to face the Lightning.  If good first impressions were what Perreault was trying to give, things did not work out quite that way.  On his first shift of the game, Tampa Bay scored.  Over the first two period he skated a total of four shifts of no particular consequence, save for that goal against.  Then in the third period he took a penalty, the Lightning scoring what would be the game-winning goal on the ensuing power play. It was his last shift of the night.  Five shifts, 3:52 in ice time, no shots attempted, no points, a penalty and a minus-1.  Good impression…not.

Post Season… Things looked pretty good for Perreault in Games 1-4 of the first round series against the New York Rangers.  A goal, three assists, plus-3.  But then there were those last three games… no points, only three shots on goal.  Sure, he finished the round tied for the team lead in points, tied for the team lead in plus-minus, and tied for the team lead in goals.  But none of that came in Games 5-7 when the Caps lost two of three games and scored only two goals in the process, none in Games 6 or 7.  His personal numbers looked good over seven games (second in Corsi on-ice at 5-on-5 among forwards playing in at least four games, second in team shooting percentage on ice, second in on-ice team save percentage, second best PDO value), but in context, it was good early, not so good late…just like the rest of the club.

In the end…

It is a bit hard to know what to make of Perreault’s season.  On the one hand, he did quite well with linemates who might not otherwise be thought of as offensive stalwarts.  On the other, he lacked a certain consistency in his production.  On the one hand, his underlying numbers looked rather good, even in the post season.  On the other, he was invisible in the last three games of the playoff series against the Rangers (he was by no means alone).  On the one hand, his points pace was not far off his career-best pace of last year, this despite his personal shooting percentage dropping by more than half.  On the other, most of that was built on his production against the Southeast Division, not the strongest of competition.  We are left at the end of the season where we started with Perreault, looking at a lot of questions.  Can he be counted on for a solid 82-games of play (64, set last season, remains his career high)?  Can he assume a steady role as a number-two center, a question that takes on more urgency with the uncertainty surrounding Mike Ribeiro’s return to the Caps?  Can he stand up to the increased physical abuse he might endure next season in the new division into which the Caps have been realigned?  It has been a long climb from being that 177^th overall draft pick in 2006.  But this season, Perreault seems to have paused in that climb.  It is not entirely of his own doing, but the climb will resume only when those lingering questions are addressed.

Grade: B-

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.”

-- Napoleon Bonaparte

If Alex Ovechkin averages 25 goals per season over the remainder of his contract, he will stand at the edge of the top 20 goals scorers of all time in the NHL. If he averages a sliver more than 30 per season, he will be among the top 15 goal scorers of all time.  Do you know how many players in the top-15 who have never won a Stanley Cup?

Two: Marcel Dionne and Mike Gartner

Winning a Stanley Cup is not the only measure of greatness in evaluating the career of an NHL player, but if a player is going to be mentioned among the best who ever played, he has to win at least one.  Ten of the top-15 goal scorers have won multiple Cups.

And yet here we are, Ovechkin having completed his eighth season – his sixth consecutive one that included a trip to the playoffs – and he is no closer now to a Cup now than he was at the end of his first playoff season.

It is not fair, to be sure, but it is the world of sport in which he plays, fans cheer and sports journalists cast their votes over the span of years for those considered the “greatest” instead of “great.”  The 2013 season, abbreviated by the mindless nonsense that was The Great Lockout of 2012-2013, probably cost him as many as 20 goals in his career goal total, but more importantly, might have cost him – and his team – 34 regular season games with which to master more completely the systems of new head coach Adam Oates and perhaps make a bigger dent in the playoffs.

One really can wonder what those 34 games might have meant to Ovechkin and the Caps.  Look at his goal progression through the “tens” – two in his first ten games, when the Caps were off to a 2-7-1 start, six in his next ten, then five, then 13 in his fourth ten-game split.  He had “only” six in his last eight games, itself a 60-goal pace.  That progression followed nicely the ten-game win-loss progression of the Caps:

1^st ten: 2-7-1

2^nd ten: 6-4-0

3^rd ten: 5-5-0

4^th ten: 8-1-1

Last 8 games: 6-1-1

Now, let us start to unpack those numbers.  Ovechkin finished the season with 32 goals to lead the league, a 55-goal pace over 82 games.  But here is the thing about those goals.  Only 14 of them were scored at 5-on-5.  Five players scored more goals at 5-on-5, including Carolina’s Jiri Tlusty (not generally thought of as a household name among goal scorers), and it was only one more than Derek Stepan, Michael Grabner, and Blake Wheeler, among others.

With Ovechkin’s talents as a finisher, one would expect that those with whom he plays would enjoy more offensive success as a group playing with him than playing apart from him, and this is generally the case.  At 5-on-5 the centers with whom he spent most of his time – Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Ribeiro – each had higher GF20 values (team goals scored for per 20 minutes of ice time at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) playing with Ovechkin than playing apart from him.  The exception among forwards with whom he skated more than 100 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time was Marcus Johansson.

It is no secret that Ovechkin is an offensive player, and it is a continuing theme that he has issues playing in his own end.  Hockey being a team sport, it would be hard to blame him (or any single player) for specific defensive problems, but while he had a respectable PDO value at 5-on-5 this season (sum of on-ice team shooting percentage and save percentage), it was bolstered by his having the third highest team shooting percentage at 5-on-5.  As for the other side of that value – team save percentage – he was 12^th among 14 Capitals forwards having played at least 20 games (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

His possession numbers at 5-on-5 were not particularly impressive, either.  He finished seventh in Corsi on-ice among 14 Capitals forwards playing in at least 20 games and finished in the middle of the Capitals pack in variations on that Corsi measure as computed at behindthenet.ca.  It goes some way to explain how it was that Ovechkin finished only fifth among Caps forwards in plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.  All of this was obtained while having the largest share of offensive zone starts among all of those Capital forwards.

Odd Ovechkin Statistic… “23.”  Alex Ovechkin played his last 23 games of the regular season without going consecutive games without a goal.  He scored goals in 17 of those games, going 23-13-36, plus-9.  Ten of those 23 goals were scored on the power play.

Game to Remember… February 23^rd vs. New Jersey.  The Caps were looking for a life saver.  With a record of 5-10-1, losers of two straight, they were sitting in last place in the Eastern Conference.  As luck, or the NHL schedule-makers, would have it, the Caps were coming off a 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils in their previous game in which they gave up a 2-1 lead after two periods.  Now, they got a chance to redeem themselves against those same Devils.  Alex Ovechkin got a chance to redeem himself, too.  He was on ice for all three goals against in the 3-2 loss.

Redeem himself, he did.  After a scoreless first period, Ovechkin scored on a wrist shot with less than six minutes gone in the second frame.  After Ilya Kovalchuk tied it for the Devils before the second intermission, Ovechkin gave the Caps the lead once more in the second minute of the third period.  Then, with the Caps up 3-1, thanks to a shorthanded goal by Eric Fehr, Ovechkin drove a stake into the Devils’ chances for a comeback with a power play goal with just under five minutes left.  He added an assist on a Troy Brouwer power play goal with less than three minutes left, and the Caps had a 5-1 win.  It was Ovechkin’s first hat trick in more than two years and his first four-point game since February 4, 2011 in a 5-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Game to forget… March 12^th vs. Carolina.  The Caps were coming off losses to the New York teams – the Islanders and Rangers – and looking bad in the process, both losses of the three-goal variety.  Facing a Southeast Division team at home seemed just the tonic.  It tasted more like vinegar to the Caps.  Carolina slowly and methodically ground the Caps down over the first 40 minutes, outshooting the Caps by a 31-19 margin and building a 3-0 lead in the process.  Carolina added an empty net shorthanded goal (for which Ovechkin was on the ice) to complete the 4-0 shutout and leave Washington with the Caps on a three-game losing streak.  Ovechkin recorded no shots on goal for the contest.  Oddly enough, it was the second straight game against Carolina in which he pulled that off.  They were the only two regular season games in which he did not record a shot on goal.

Post Season… The Caps made the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season in 2013.  In the first three appearances in that streak, Alex Ovechkin went 20-20-40, plus-14 in 28 games.  Since then, in his last three post-season appearances he is 11-10-21, minus-5 in 30 games and only 6-9-10 in 19 games of series the Caps ultimately lost.  In 2013 against the New York Rangers he was 1-1-2, minus-2 in seven games. 

And here is the oddest part of all about those numbers.  He scored his lone goal of the series 6:59 into the second period of Game 1, a 3-1 win for the Caps.  He did not register another shot on goal in that game.  Then, in Games 2-7 he went 0-for-25 shooting.  He did not register a point after Game 2.  In the three games ending in Caps’ wins in the series, Ovechkin recorded 21 shots on goal.  In the four losses he finished with a total of nine shots on goal.  This is not difficult math.  Even if he was not effective, his shot volumes were indicative of the sort of pressure the Caps could put on the Rangers.  Absent those shot volumes, the Caps lost (even as they scored three goals twice in losses).  This was, to be charitable, not a post-season that will go in the scrapbook.  Maybe the scrap heap.

In the end…

Twenty years from now, unless he is spirited away by aliens, Alex Ovechkin is going to be one of the most prolific goal scorers ever to wear an NHL sweater.  It is entirely possible that he will do it without having won a Stanley Cup.  In that case he will be more a historical curiosity than a player mentioned with the greats.  That is just the way it is.  In 2013 he did some fine things, but they had the more than a faint whiff of “been there, done that.”  Leading goal scorer…been there, done that.  Scored a bushel of power play goals…been there, done that.  Hit like a freight train…been there, done that.  Unfortunately, there is also “early playoff exit”…been there, done that.  And this year, as has been the case in the previous two post-seasons, it was not a case of his performing valiantly in the face of disappointment.  His production just has not been there.  2013 was his least productive post-season since he was an 18-year old playing for Dynamo Moscow (no points in three playoff games).  A Richard Trophy for most goals and nomination as a Hart Trophy finalist is not nothing, but it is now the post season on which he will be judged in the history of the sport.  He has to produce.  This year, he did not.

Grade: B-

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Our Modest Suggestion for the Most Overrated NHL Statistic for 2013

Power Play Conversion Rate

Seriously.

Today, fans of the Pittsburgh Penguins are probably grinding their teeth over the fact that their boys are a big fat oh-for-12 on the power play in three games.  Big deal.

Yeah, the Pens were all whoop-dee-doo on the power play this season, finishing second (to a team we will get to in a moment) during the regular season.  Then, they were 7-for-21 against the New York Islanders in a six-game playoff series, 6-for-25 in a five-game series romp over the Ottawa Senators.  Going 13-for-46 in their first two series is pretty good -- 28.3 percent, an improvement over their 24.7 percent in the regular season.

But then Boston happened, just as the New York Rangers happened to the Washington Capitals (first on the power play in the regular season, dumped in seven games after going 3-for-16 in their first round series). 

Just as the Detroit Red Wings happened to the Anaheim Ducks (fourth in the regular season) in Games 4-7, when the Ducks went 2-for-10 after going 5-for-15 in Games 1-3 (did we mention the Ducks went 1-3 in those last four games?). 

Just as the Ottawa Senators happened to the Montreal Canadiens (fifth in the regular season), holding the Habs to 3-for-19 in their first round matchup that Ottawa won in five games.

Nine teams finished the 2013 regular season with power play conversion rates of 20 percent or better.  Perhaps as a foreshadowing of what was to come, only five of them made the playoffs (Washington, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Montreal, and San Jose).  Only two won a playoff round (Pittsburgh and San Jose).

Ah, but look at 5-on-5's.  The four conference finalists finished in the top-eight in 5-on-5 ratio of goals scored to goals allowed.  Three of them (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Boston) finished in the top four.

In the Bruins-Penguins series, Boston has outscored Pittsburgh 11-2 at even strength.  That happens to be the total scoring for the series, neither team having realized a power play goal through three games.

In the Chicago-Los Angeles series, the Blackhawks won Games 1 and 2 by outscoring the Kings 5-2 at even strength.  In the Kings win, it was 3-1 on even strength for the Kings.

If Boston sweeps the Penguins out, especially, we suspect much will be made of the Penguins getting nothing out of a power play stocked to the rafters with talent.  Well, they might not score any power play goals, but that will not be the reason they lost.  Not anymore than it is the reason the Caps lost to the Rangers.  New York outscored the Caps 14-9 at even strength in seven games.  Boston is laying waste to the Penguins at even strength.

Think of it this way.  Boston won the Stanley Cup in 2011 and did it by finishing 14th of 16 playoff teams in power play conversion rate.

It only makes sense.  If power plays are harder to come by in the post-season, and you get shut down (who doesn't at some point), then five-on-five -- like money in the Willie Sutton analogy about why he robbed banks -- is where the wins are.

Try not to overthink the game; it ain't the power play.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

“Failures are finger posts on the road to achievement.”

-- C. S. Lewis

Perhaps “failure” is too strong a word to describe the 2013 season Marcus Johansson had for the Washington Capitals.  After all, despite missing a quarter of the season to the dreaded “upper-body injury,” Johansson did finish seventh on the team in total points scored, he was fourth on the club in shooting percentage, he finished tied for fourth in assists, and he was fifth in power play goals scored.

That is the positive spin, though.  The other side of the coin is that Johansson put up these numbers having skated far more of his 450 minutes at 5-on-5 with Alex Ovechkin (328) and Nicklas Backstrom (324) than he did with any other forward.  In fact, Johansson did not spend as much as 75 minutes at 5-on-5 time with any other forward in his 34 games of the season, and only with Troy Brouwer (73) did he skate more than 50 minutes. 

Johansson skated the majority of his 5-on-5 ice time with most talented linemates the Caps had to offer, and he scored one even strength goal in the presence of Ovechkin and Backstrom on the ice all season (March 21^st in a 4-0 win over Winnipeg).  He did have more of a presence in a support role – ten of his 13 5-on-5 assists were recorded with Ovechkin on the ice, eight of them with Backstrom centering him – but Johansson did not state with authority that he was the long-term solution at left wing on the top line.

And that leads us to today’s word… “context.”  In 2011-2012 Johansson had a fine sophomore season – 14-32-46 in 80 games.  And in fact, his 6-16-22 scoring line in 2013 would have been a bit of a bump up on an similar 80-game basis – 14-38-52.  He had three power play goals this season compared to one in 2011-2012.  His shooting percentage was little different – 15.0 percent this year, 15.6 percent last season.

But here is the difference.  In 2011-2012 Johansson skated more 5-on-5 time with Alex Ovechkin than with any other forward, but he skated almost as much 5-on-5 ice time with Alexander Semin.  Johansson being primarily a center last season, he was shuttling more between lines.  He spent more than 100 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time with six different forwards, and it was rather impressive that the Caps team goals scored at 5-on-5 per 20 minutes (GF20 at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) were better for five of those forwards when skating with Johansson that when they were apart, Semin being the exception.

One might have expected that with more regular linemates, especially those being the top line center and top line right wing, the continuity and the growth one might have anticipated in his game would have resulted in more offensive production.  And let us face it.  Johansson’s contributions are going to come primarily at the offensive end of the ice.  Although his goals scored against while on ice were certainly acceptable (seventh lowest among the 14 Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games), he did not spend much time killing penalties (ninth most penalty killing minutes per game among forwards).  Neither is he an especially demonstrative player physically.  He had only 14 hits and four penalty minutes in 34 games this season and has only 22 penalty minutes in his 183-game career with the Caps.

Odd Johansson Statistic… “Three.”  There were 337 forwards who played in at least 30 games in the NHL this season.  Only three – Philadelphia’s Matt Read, Detroit’s Drew Miller, and Winnipeg’s Kyle Wellwood – recorded fewer penalty minutes than the four recorded by Marcus Johansson.  For the record, it was Johansson tripping Read in a 5-4 overtime Flyer win on March 31^st, and he got caught up with a coincidental minor with Carolina’s Jeff Skinner in a 3-2 Caps win on April 11^th.

Game to Remember… April 2^nd at Carolina.  The Caps were at a precarious point of their season.  After a 2-8-1 start they made a slow climb through the standings, but they still found themselves on the outside looking up at the top-eight in the Eastern Conference, and the Caps still had not reached the .500 mark on the season after 35 games.  The Caps had their third chance in four games to reach the .500 mark when they visited Carolina on April 2^nd.  It was a back-and-forth affair, the Hurricanes scoring the first two goals of the contest before the Caps scored two to tie it.  Carolina took the lead again barely a minute after the Caps tied it, 2-2, but Washington tied it again less than three minutes later.  The Caps finally took the lead midway through the second period on a goal by Alex Ovechkin on which Johansson recorded an assist. 

Then, Carolina got caught on the wrong side of one of those “high-risk, high-reward” situations.  On a power play the Hurricanes elected to put defensemen Marc-Andre Bergeron and Joe Corvo on the ice at the same time, both of whom are talented offensive players but who are, to put it delicately, adventures on the defensive side of the puck.  Bergeron made a ghastly play at the Capitals’ blue line, trying to hit Eric Staal with a pass just as he entered the Caps’ zone.  The pass was off target, rebounding off the side boards.  Johansson fought through Staal to get the puck and headed up ice with Joel Ward, only Corvo back for Carolina.  Corvo could not decide whether to defend the shot or the pass or the beer vendor in the stands, did none, and Johansson lofted a pretty saucer pass that was right on the tape of Ward’s stick for the goal and a 5-3 Caps win.

Game to Forget… January 25^th at New Jersey.  In almost 17 minutes of ice time, Johansson managed to attempt one shot on goal (a miss), did not have a hit, a takeaway, or a blocked shot, lost six of nine faceoffs, and was on ice for both the Devils’ first goal of the game and the last one, a blast from Ilya Kovalchuk, just moments after Johansson was just a half second late getting in the way of a shot that might have disrupted New Jersey’s ability to keep the puck in the zone leading up to Kovalchuk’s game-winner.

Post-Season… Like so many of the Caps, Johansson’s post-season was utterly forgettable.  Well, almost.  At least he had the game-winning goal in Game 1, the product of a gorgeous stretch pass from Steve Oleksy that found Johansson behind the New York Ranger defense for a breakaway.  That would be the high point of his series.  In the other six games Johansson was 0-1-1, minus-3, and was on ice for only one goal for the Caps in those last six games.  In other words, Johansson did not have an especially bad series in the context of the performance of most of his teammates.

In the end…

This was more a “sideways” kind of season for Johansson.  His profile as a player is coming into focus.  He is primarily an offensive player, although he is not a bad defensive performer.  He is a superior skater with fine speed, but he lacks a physical dimension to his game.  What was unsettling about this season --- what gave it its “sideways” quality – was that he was too much the passenger on the line on which the team depended for consistent and significant offense.  It is sometimes useful to remember that Johansson will not be 23 years old until just before the puck drops on the 2013-2014 season and that he has fewer than 200 games of NHL regular season experience.  It also helps to step back and examine his production with a cool eye.  Doing so, one can see that he has in fact made progress.

On the other hand, he is entering a phase of his career in which he can settle into being a 45-50 point player – productive to a point and capable of making contributions from time to time.  Or, he can take that next leap to being a 55-60 point player and a player of consequence on a scoring line.  That will be the next finger post on Johansson’s career road.

Grade: C+

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals -- The Dangers of Late-Night Pizza

Try as we might, sometimes we just cannot resist the desire for a pepperoni, anchovy, and marshmallow fluff pizza.  And when we succumb to that guilty pleasure, odd dreams are sure to follow.  Such was the case last evening when the thunder clouds of peppery, fishy fluff rumbling in our stomach combined with watching playoff hockey resulted in odd visions in our sleep…

It was several years into the future, each year of playoff futility by the Washington Capitals adding one more length of chain that we Caps fans bear as the price for following this club.  The disappointment of promise unfulfilled, of chances missed, the knock of opportunity unanswered weighs heavily after another early round playoff exit. 

Another season begins, and the hope that accompanies it sprouts once more.  Maybe this year will be different.  But something is amiss.  What was once unparalleled chemistry between Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom just isn’t there.  Passes are off the mark, shots are shanked.  They are not on the same page.  There seems to be a growing lack of communication.

They seem to have grown apart.

And then we realize… Ovechkin and Backstrom will have been linemates since the 2007-2008 season.  They are under contract together through the 2019-2020 season (Ovechkin would still have one year to go on his deal).  Thirteen years together.  It would be quite a run…

…until you look up the statistics and find that the median length of time for first marriages in the United States is eight years.

And then the whispers start about giving Ovechkin a chance to win a Cup before his contract ends and he returns to Russia… or maybe moving Backstrom to a contender to give him a shot at a Cup that he didn’t win in Washington.  The speculation starts…

...Ovechkin to Pittsburgh

...Backstrom to New York

...Ovechkin to Chicago

...Backstrom to Boston

...Ovechkin to Florida to skate with that MacKinnon fellow who already has a Cup with the Panthers

...Backstrom to Colorado, who is looking to add another Cup to the one already won by Duchene, O’Reilly, Landeskog, and Jones

And then we wake up, bolt upright in a cold sweat muttering…

“Win a Cup, you guys, and soon, because marriages don’t last forever.”

We really do have to lay off that pizza.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks

"It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage"

-- Dr. Henry Walton (Indiana) Jones, Jr., PhD

Professor (ret) of Archaeology, Marshall College

Matt Hendricks is one of those guys you instinctively root for.  He wears his emotions on the ice, leaves everything he has to give out there, is fearless in standing up for his teammates, and does fine work in the community off the ice.  He also happens to have a freakish skill in the trick shot phase of the game and chips in his share of offense as a fourth-liner.  He is never going to get any Hart Trophy votes, but you want him by your side when you take the ice.

Coming into the 2013 season Hendricks did have some rebuilding to do on his Capitals resume.  After posting a surprising 9-16-25 scoring line in 77 games in 2010-2011, Hendricks saw his points drop by almost two-thirds in 2011-2012 when he went 4-5-9 in 78 games.  He came out of the gate as strong as you might hope for a fourth liner, going 4-2-6, plus-4, in his first 22 games.  He was on a double-digit goal-scoring pace, which would have been a first in his five-year career. 

Then, Hendricks went cold just as the Caps were heating up.  Over his last 26 games, during which the Caps went 17-7-2, Hendricks went 1-1-2, minus-10.  It really was a tale of two seasons for Hendricks.  In addition to those considerably different scoring lines, his shooting percentage regressed significantly, despite almost no change in shots.  He was 4-for-26 in those first 22 games (1.18 shots per game; 15.4 percent shooting percentage), while he was 1-for-18 in his last 26 games (1.08 shots per game; 3.6 percent shooting percentage).

Then there was his ornery index.  In his first 22 games he recorded 44 penalty minutes and four of his fighting majors, three of them coming in the space of consecutive games, two in a 4-2 loss to Winnipeg on January 22^nd and another on January 24^th in a 4-1 loss to Montreal.  In his last 26 games he logged 29 penalty minutes and three fighting majors.  His ice time suffered a bit as well.  In his first 22 games he averaged twelve and a half minutes a game.  Over his last 26 games that dropped to 11 minutes per game.

The outcomes for Hendricks really did reflect his outputs, at least as far as his underlying numbers are concerned.  Among the 13 Capitals forwards playing in at least 20 games for the club in the 2013 season Hendricks was last in plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.  He was 12^th in PDO (sum of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage), 10^th in on-ice Corsi.  One does not expect these numbers to rank highly for a fourth-liner, but they did represent a drop in ranking from the previous year when he was 11^th among 13 forwards playing in 40 or more games in plus-minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, 11^th in PDO, and 9^th in on-ice Corsi (all results from behindthenet.ca).

Odd Hendricks Statistic… “Two.”  On two separate occasions Hendricks recorded two fights in a single game – January 22^nd against Winnipeg and March 16^th against Boston.  The Caps lost both games, 4-2 to the Jets and 4-2 to the Bruins.

Game to Remember… March 2^nd at Winnipeg.  The Capitals needed a lift… badly.  Coming off a 4-1 loss in Philadelphia to close the month of February, the Caps found themselves in last place in the Eastern Conference, six points behind both Carolina and Winnipeg for eighth place in the conference.  The Caps had an opportunity to take a bite out of one of those teams when they visited Winnipeg on March 2^nd.  The teams skated to a scoreless first period, but midway through the second John Erskine let loose with a bomb from the left point that nailed Jets’ forward Blake Wheeler in the knee, dropping him to the ice.  With Wheeler unable to get to his feet, the Caps had what amounted to a man advantage.  The puck made its way to the stick of Mike Ribeiro in the right wing faceoff circle.  Ribeiro dangled the puck, pulling Bryan Little out of position.  Hendricks took advantage of the situation by heading down the slot behind Little.  Ribeiro found him for the tip-in and what would be the game-winning goal in a 3-0 win.  It was Hendricks’ only game-winning goal of the season.

Game to Forget… February 1^st vs. Philadelphia.  It was one of those games where you have to do the ugly part of your job.  As the first period was winding down in a scoreless game, John Erskine nailed Flyer forward Wayne Simmonds with an extended elbow right in the nose.  There was no penalty called on the play, but the Flyers were not waiting to extract their pound of flesh.  When the teams lined up for the ensuing puck drop, Hendricks was on ice for the Caps, Zac Rinaldo – he of the 15 fights in the 2011-2012 season – was sent out by the Flyers.  Before the puck could be dropped (in fact, the linesman was about to toss Max Talbot out of the circle for a violation) Hendricks and Rinaldo went at it.  Both players received fighting majors, and for their trouble in starting the kerfuffle before the puck drop, both received game misconducts.  It was Hendrick’s shortest stint of the season – four shifts and 2:23 in ice time.  The Flyers won, 3-2.

Post Season… Only two Capitals who played in all seven games finished without a point to show for it.  Eric Fehr was one, Matt Hendricks was the other.  One could argue that he did play adequate defense, what with only three goals scored against the Caps in the series when he was on the ice.  But the Caps scored only one goal in the entire series when he was on the ice.  This is a continuing refrain for the Caps in the playoffs, a soft underbelly of weak scoring on the third and fourth lines.  Jay Beagle had the only point from the fourth line in the series.  For Hendricks, it extended a long stretch of post-season frustration.  He is 1-1-2, minus-7 in 34 career playoff games.

In the end…

Emotion is a big part of sports, both from players and fans alike.  But sentimentality is not.  Successful teams do not have a conscience when making evaluations about their roster and their future.  The question heading into this off-season for Matt Hendricks is whether, at age 32 on opening night of the 2013-2014 season, has enough left in the tank to provide that energetic presence he has provided to the Caps over the last three seasons.  Or, is it really the mileage?  Has the fire that burned twice as hot in Hendricks lasted half as long?  Hendricks did not have a very good second half or playoff record, even by the standards of his position and role.  That has to be disquieting for the club as they evaluate the benefits of re-signing Hendricks to a new contract (he is an unrestricted free agent).  One thing is certain.  Whoever gets Hendricks will get all he has to give.  It just might be that there has been so much given, there might not be a lot left.

Grade: C+

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Eric Fehr

Eric Fehr

“Still round the corner there may wait,

A new road or a secret gate.”

-- J. R. R. Tolkien

It has been quite a road traveled by Eric Fehr the last couple of years.  Once a first round draft pick of the Washington Capitals, a succession of injuries dimmed the promise he showed as a goal-scorer in Canadian juniors.  By the time he finished his sixth season with the Capitals in 2011, he had played in only 230 games and recorded only 46 goals.  At age 25, he seemed to be damaged goods and was shipped to the Winnipeg Jets in July 2011 for Danick Paquette and a mid-round draft pick.

As if things were not frustrating enough in Washington, Fehr’s 2011-2012 season in Winnipeg was a disaster.  It should have been a pleasant homecoming, Fehr being a native of Winkler, Manitoba.  Instead, he underwent shoulder surgery in October 2011 and missed the first 19 games of the season for the Jets.  He never recovered from the delayed start, posting only two goals in 35 games with Winnipeg.

With his two year deal originally signed with Washington now expired, Fehr was a free agent. Unfortunately, a 26-year old with a history of shoulder problems was not in high demand, and he signed a contract with HPK in Finland.  There, Fehr regained something of his scoring touch, posting 13 goals in 21 games.  With the NHL finally coming to its senses and reaching an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement in January, the Capitals signed Fehr back on January 12^th on a one-year, $600,000 deal just in time for the start of the 2013 season.

It took Fehr a while to get started, missing the first three games of the season with, yes, an “upper body injury," then going without a point in his first eight games.  But over his last 33 games he was 9-8-17, plus-16.  That is a 22-20-42, plus-40 pace over 82 games.  Not bad for a guy who finished tenth among Caps forwards in total minutes played this season.

There was, though, the infernal “Southeast Division” thing going on.  Fehr was 5-4-9, plus-14 in 15 games against the fellow travelers of the Southeast, while he was 4-4-8, even, in his other 26 games.  However, as Caps fans no doubt will remember, two of those four goals against other divisions were quite dramatic, including this one to end the regular season with a flourish…

An encouraging aspect of Fehr’s game was his contributions at even strength.  Yes, that is a big part of his job (or at least what Caps fans hoped he would be a few years back), but looking at the four players with whom he skated at least 100 minutes this season, the GF20 values at 5-on-5 (team goals for per 20 minutes at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) for three of those players – Mathieu Perreault, Jason Chimera, and Nicklas Backstrom – were higher with Fehr than they were when apart.  He also had solid next-lvel numbers.  Among Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games Fehr had the best PDO (sum of save percentage and shooting percentage), had a better ratio of penalties drawn to penalties taken than any forward except Marcus Johansson, the best Corsi on-ice relative to off ice, and the best plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes (all results from behindthenet.ca).

Odd Fehr Statistic... Eric Fehr was one of nine forwards in the league whose only game winning goals came in overtime.  He was the only forward in the league who had two game-winning goals, both in overtime (the other eight were one-for-one).

Game to Remember… March 5^th vs. Boston.  It is something about the Bruins.  Eric Fehr recorded the only three-point game of his career when he had three assists in a Caps 10-2 win over Boston on March 3, 2008.  The March 5^th game against the Bruins did not have the look of a game in which Fehr would repeat the feat, especially when the Bruins went out to a 3-0 lead before the horn went off for the first intermission.  But after Mike Ribeiro got the Caps on the board early in the second period, Fehr was credited with the primary assists on goals by Tomas Kundratek in the second period and Wojtek Wolski to tie the game in the third period.  He saved the best for last, though, just 37 seconds into the overtime…

Game to Forget… January 31^st at Toronto.  Through two periods of the Caps’ game against the Maple Leafs, Eric Fehr spent a total of 2:06 on the ice and did not see a shift in the second period.  He got a couple of turns around the ice early in the third period, but the third shift was not the charm.  Fehr had two chances to stymie a breakout by the Leafs from their own end, first not quite getting a stick on a John-Michael Liles feed up to Matt Frattin.  Then, when Frattin could not collect the pass cleanly, Fehr was unable to tie him up along the boards.  Frattin broke free and headed up ice.  Seconds later, Frattin was on the business end of a feed from Nazem Kadri, and he buried it in the back of the net for what would be the game-winning goal in the 3-2 Leafs win on what was Fehr’s last shift of the evening.

Post Season… It just never came together for Fehr in the first round series against the New York Rangers.  That team best PDO among Caps forwards at 5-on-5 in the regular season?  He had the third-worst among Caps forwards playing in all seven games.  Plus-minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5?  Third-worst.  His relative Corsi, on-ice to off-ice, which best at 5-on-5 in the regular season?  Eighth among Caps forwards in the Ranger series.  He finished without a point in seven games, and he was on ice for each of the first four goals scored by the Rangers in their 5-0 series-clinching win.

In the end…

Yes, the playoffs were a bitter end to the season for the Caps and Fehr in particular, but it was quite a comeback season.  The Caps rewarded him with a two-year, $3.0 million extension off his 2013 season production.  Fehr is probably a more well-rounded player than he was when he departed Washington in 2011.  He has become a better defensive player (only 14 goals scored against on-ice, none of them in penalty-killing situations, and he displayed some of the finishing skill hoped for when he was drafted.  The aim now is to build on this from a healthy foundation.  If Fehr can put together a solid 70-game season next year (he has yet to hit that mark in eight seasons), it could be the secret gate to career success.

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Joey Crabb

Joey Crabb

“Expectation is the root of all heartache.”

-- William Shakespeare

When Joey Crabb was signed by the Washington Capitals to a one-year, one-way contract paying him $950,000 on July 1^st, optimism was the order of the day.  His agent, Kevin Epp, noted that “he’s versatile and can move up and down the lineup — wherever he’s needed.”  He was confident that Crabb landed in the right place, saying that “Washington was a good fit.  For Joey to have the opportunity to play on a championship-caliber team, that’s what was most important for him, and this was a good chance to do so.”

And why shouldn’t the Crabb camp paint a picture of optimism?  In his first full season in the NHL, with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2011-2012, Crabb was 11-15-26 in 67 games skating just over 13 minutes a game.  Surely on a team with the offensive features to be brought to bear by new head coach Adam Oates, a player like Crabb could build on that season and flourish in Washington.

Right?

It was probably an ominous sign when Crabb did not dress for the season opener against Tampa Bay on January 19^th.  He got into the lineup the following game against Winnipeg, then scored his first goal of the season in the next game against Montreal.  But even that had a cloud hanging over it, the goal being the lone goal for the Caps, scored with less than three minutes left in what would be a 4-1 loss.  He then went without a point over his next 21 games.  His ice time, which averaged over 11 minutes per game over his first 12 games with the Caps, dwindled to an average of less than eight minutes a game over his next 14 games.

By the time Crabb skated his last shift for the Caps early in the third period of a 5-3 win over Buffalo on March 14^th, he had two goals and no assists in 26 games.  One of the more shocking numbers in his 2013 season resume was the fact that he was on ice for five power play goals against.  Only four other Capital forwards were on ice for more, and three of them – Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Hendricks, and Jay Beagle – did so playing in all 48 games.  The other – Troy Brouwer – played in 47 contests.  Seven Capitals averaged more penalty killing time per game than did Crabb.

Another shocking number, which might not be altogether shocking given his season, is “four.”  That is the total number of goals he was on ice for in 26 games, and two of those were his own.

Here is another one… “three.”  Crabb, who scored 11 goals on 75 shots on goal in 67 games in Toronto in 2011-2012, managed only three games in which he recorded more than one shot, and in 11 games did not have a shot on goal at all.

Crabb was waived in late March, cleared waivers, then was sent down to Hershey for the remainder of his season.  He was 6-6-12, plus-5 in 12 regular season games with the Bears, then went 5-0-5 in five playoff games in the Bears’ first round loss to the Providence Bruins.  He was recalled after the Bears’ season ended but saw no action in the playoff series against the New York Rangers.

Game to Remember… March 14^th at Carolina.  In a season as forgettable as Crabb’s you might think that there would be no game to remember.  But there the Caps were, heading to Carolina on a three-game losing streak and in danger of tumbling into last place in the Eastern Conference.  It got worse when the Carolina Hurricanes, ten points ahead of the Caps in the standings at the time, broke on top with a pair of first period goals, one of them by former Cap Alexander Semin.  However, in the sixth minute of the second period, Crabb went to the basics.  As Aaron Volpatti was chipping the puck along the left wing wall past Hurricane defenseman Justin Faulk, Crabb darted to the net.  Volpatti retrieved the puck and sent a pass to the front of the Carolina net where Crabb had beaten defenseman Bobby Sanguinetti to the spot. Crabb redirected the puck in, starting a comeback that resulted in a Caps 3-2 win.  You could argue that it was the most important goal of the Caps’ season, for with that goal and the comeback win that followed, the three-game losing streak was over, and the Caps finished the season 17-4-2, Southeast Division champs one last time.

Game to Forget… pretty much the rest of them.

In the end…

On the one hand, there was that 11-goal season in Toronto in 2011-2012.  On the other, Washington was Crabb’s third team over parts of four seasons – one in Atlanta with the Thrashers and two in Toronto.  On the one hand, there was that 11-goal season in Toronto in 2011-2012.  On the other, Crabb was approaching his 30^th birthday having played in only 144 NHL games.  On the one hand, there was that 11-goal season in Toronto in 2011-2012 that might have merited a $950,000 one-way contract.  On the other, well…

Grade: D

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America