The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 5: Capitals at Devils, October 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take baggage in hand and head off to Newark, NJ, on Friday night to face the New Jersey Devils as they continue their road-home-road-home-road alternating schedule to start the season.  The Caps have gone to extra time in both of their road contests to date, splitting the decisions with a win in Ottawa in the season opener and a loss in Tampa last Monday.  In trying to get above .500 in the road portion of their schedule, the Caps will be seeking to allow something fewer than four goals, the number tallied by both of their road opponents to date.

The Devils, on the other hand, qualify as a “surprise” team in the early going with a perfect 3-0-0 record.  Granted, two of those wins came at the expense of the Buffalo Sabres and the Colorado Avalanche, teams that will probably be on the outside looking in on the postseason next spring.  But their last win was a convincing 6-3 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are among the darlings of the “it” crowd as a contender to get out of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.

So far, the Devils are doing it with a collection of no-names (at least little known at the moment).  Jesper Bratt, whose name sounds like a Star Wars character, leads the team with three goals and in total scoring with six points.  The 19-year old Bratt, a sixth-round pick of the 2016 draft is, at the moment, the lowest-drafted member of that 2016 class to appear in, let along score in, an NHL game (162 overall).  It is quite a start for a player who, before suiting up for the Devils, had not played a game in North America.  For the last three seasons he played for AIK IF in HockeyAllsvenskan, the second-highest league in Sweden.

Another part of the youth movement in New Jersey is their second-leading point producer, defenseman and fellow rookie Will Butcher.  A somewhat undersized defenseman (5’10”/190), Butcher was a fifth-round pick of the Colorado Avalanche in 2013, but could not come to an agreement on a contract with the Avs and became a free agent last August.  He signed a two-year/$1.85 million deal with the Devils and jumped right into their lineup not having played a minor league game for either franchise (he spent the last four years at the University of Denver).  Butcher’s five assists (no goals) leads the team.

Until last season, goalie Cory Schneider never had a full season with a goals against average above 2.30 (2.26 in 2014-2015) and never had a save percentage below .920 (.921 in 2013-2014).  He never had fewer than three shutouts in any season in which he appeared in more than 25 games.  Last season, he failed to hit all three of those marks, going 20-27-11, 2.82, .908, with two shutouts.  It makes his 3-0-0, 2.00, .948 record to start the season a welcome sight for Devils fans, and what might make them feel better is that even with his troubles last season he had a 0.67 goals against average and a .976 save percentage against the Caps in two appearances (one loss, one no-decision).  Over his career he is 3-6-2, 2.14, .923 with one shutout against Washington.

1.  The 50 shots on goal the Devils allowed the Maple Leafs in their 6-3 win on Wednesday was just the second time in franchise history that the team allowed 50 or more shots in a game and the first time they suffered such a barrage in a regulation time decision.  They faced 51 shots in a 1-0 Gimmick win over the New York Rangers on January 12, 2010.

2.  The Devils have already spread around the scoring.  Through three games, ten different skaters have goals, and 17 of 20 skaters to dress have points.  Damon Severson is the only skater to appear in all three games for the Devils having failed to record a point.

3.  New Jersey is the only team in the league in the top-five in both scoring offense (5.33 goals-per-game/2^nd) and in scoring defense (2.00/T-4^th; through Wednesday’s games).

4.  The Devils are one of three teams to take a lead into the third period in each of the games they played so far (St. Louis and Chicago are the others).  They and the Blues are the only ones to win all of those games.

5.  It is the second period in which the Devils have done their damage thus far.  Their eight middle frame goals and plus-6 goal differential both lead the league.

1.  This contest opens the Capitals’ first set of back-to-back games this season.  This, and Saturday’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers, are on the road.  The Caps played road-road in five back-to-backs last season.  Twice they won both games, twice they lost both games (in on set a loss came in a Gimmick), and once they split the two games.

2.  Big starts, iffy finishes.  The Caps are tied for third in the league in first period goals scored (7) and are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals in the opening frame (2).  But, they are a minus-1 in goal differential over the last 40 minutes of games – eight scored and nine allowed.

3.  Yup…still dead last, and getting worse.  The Caps are last in the league in shots on goal per game (24.8).  And allowing 36.8 shots per game isn’t helping, either (tied for seventh-most).  Washington is one of three teams (Vancouver and Detroit being the others) not to have out-shot an opponent in a game yet.  It’s not even an accuracy thing or getting shots to the net.  The Caps are a minus-37 in shot-attempt differential at 5-on-5, tied for worst in the league with Chicago and St. Louis (numbers from NHL.com).

4.  The Caps have the first (Evgeny Kuznetsov), tied for first (Alex Ovechkin), and tied for seventh (Nicklas Backstrom) point getters in the league through Wednesday games. 

5.  If you’re looking for even-strength scoring, the Caps have had it.  They are third in the league in even-strength goals scored (12), trailing only Toronto (13) and Chicago (18) through Wednesday’s games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey:  Marcus Johansson

My dearest Abigail…

I find myself in a new assignment with my new regiment.  Where I found myself a young charge among battle-tested veterans when I served with the Army of the Potomac, I am now one of those battle-tested veterans in my new billet.  They are so young, and only six of the 20 men in our skating regiment are older than I am.  I find adjustments to my new surroundings to be pleasant and acceptable, even rejuvenating.  We have been blessed to score two goals and assist on two others, my points earned a full fourth of the 16 we have scored so far.  I find myself in a situation that reminds me of that which I had with Nicklas Backstrom when I skated in Washington.  The roles now, it seems, are reversed.  Jesper Bratt is the fresh troop joining our squad, a native of Sweden, as I was back in ’11 when I was in Washington.  Just as Nicklas helped me along, so too might I play that role for young Bratt as he makes his contributions to our cause.  I look forward to our first skirmish – and mine – against our old Washington teammates.  Yours always… Marcus.

Washington: John Carlson

It is only four games, two of which went to extra time, but defenseman John Carlson is averaging more than three minutes more per game (25:53) than he averaged last season (22:43).  That is five more shifts per game (31.75 to 26.61).  In his eight previous seasons, Carlson never averaged more than 24:31 in ice time per game (2013-2014 season) or 28.57 shifts per game (2014-2015).  But Carlson is now the dean of the defense corps, based on games played with the Caps (530), and with that comes added responsibility, especially given the state of the defense – younger and without as much depth – as the 2017-2018 season opens.  Carlson has a pair of assists in the four games to date, but despite being second on the club in shots on goal (12), he has yet to find the back of the net.  Only Victor Hedman of the Lightning has as many or more shots in three games (14) without a goal among defensemen.  If there is a team against which he might break through, it could be New Jersey.  Carlson is 3-13-16, plus-11 in 27 career games against the Devils.

In the end…

At least in the early going, the Devils look like one of those annoying teams of youngsters that skate like a herd of golden retriever puppies getting all over you and making you sick with their seemingly limitless reservoir of energy.  Eleven of their skaters to dress so far are 25 or younger.  Only one player to dress for all three games – Andy Greene – is older than 30.  The Devils look as if they are the latest entry in fulfilling the NHL’s version of the Olympic motto.  Instead of “faster, higher, stronger;” it is “younger, faster, cheaper (they have the fourth-lowest cap hit in the league, according to capfriendly.com).”  It presents the latest challenge to the Caps and their ability to use experience and guile to offset a team that might be quicker.  Guess you know how we think they will meet that challenge…

Capitals 4 – Devils 2

A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 4: Penguins 3 - Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals started the season with an air-tight penalty killing unit, but for the second straight game it let the club down as it gave up all three goals in a 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday night.

First Period

Kris Letang recorded his first point of the season on a power play early in the first period when, after the Pens worked the puck around the perimeter, Letang went to the net as Conor Sheary sent the puck to the net. Off a goal-mouth scramble, the puck squirted out to the uncovered Letang to the left of goalie Braden Holtby, and he backhanded it over Holtby’s left pad to make it 1-0, 5:22 into the game.

Second Period

On what would be their fourth power play less than half way into the game, the Pens struck again. As the power play was winding down, Patric Hornqvist chipped a loose puck from the top of the paint over a sprawled Holtby to make it 2-0 at the 8:20 mark of the period. To that point of the contest the Caps were shorthanded a total of 6:49 of 28:20 of total ice time.

The Caps halved the deficit with a little bit of history. For the second time this season a rookie making his NHL debut scored his first career goal. In the last minute of the second period, Lars Eller backhanded a pass to the right wing circle where Christian Djoos was waiting. Djoos blasted a one-timer that beat goalie Matt Murray cleanly over the left pad and inside the post at the 19:20 mark for his first NHL goal to put the Caps on the board.

Third Period

Whatever momentum the Caps might have generated from the Djoos goal late in the second period, it was ripped away in the first minute of the third period. On their sixth power play of the game, the Pens made it 3-1 when Conor Sheary got inside position of Brooks Orpik at the top of the crease and redirected a Justin Schultz drive past Holtby at the 38-second mark.

The Caps made it interesting mid-way through the period. Nicklas Backstrom feathered a pass over Kris Letang’s stick to Djoos in the left wing circle. Djoos calmly slid the puck around Schultz’ skate to Alex Ovechkin parked at the top of the paint. Ovechkin redirected the puck past Murray’s left pad, and it was 3-2 at the 12:51 mark. The Caps could not find the equalizer, though, and the Pens skated off with a 3-2 win to open the 2017-2018 series between the clubs.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin’s eighth goal of the season means he has as many or more goals than 14 teams in the NHL.

-- Last season, the Caps did not allow an opponent more than 30 shots in a game until Game 9, when the Winnipeg Jets launched 45 shots on goal in a 6-2 Caps win.  With the 36 shots on goal recorded by the Penguins, the Caps have allowed more than 30 shots in each of their first four games.  In each of their last three games, the Caps have been on the short end of shots on goal by double digits (minus-16 to Montreal, minus-14 to Tampa Bay, and minus-14 to the Pens).

-- Last season the Caps did not record their third game with ten or more penalty minutes until Game 14 in a 5-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.  The Caps have been charged with ten or more penalty minutes in each of their last three games.

-- Last season, the Caps were not held under 30 shots per game over four consecutive games until Games 12-15.  Perhaps not coincidentally, the Caps did not win any of those games in regulation (1-2-1), their only win a 3-2 overtime win against the Chicago Blackhawks.  The Caps have been held under 30 shots in each of their first four games this season.

-- Last season, the Caps did not allow three goals in any of their first four games.  They have allowed three or more in three of their first four games this season.

-- The shot attempts last night were not dominated by Pittsburgh, although they did have a 57-54 edge in total.  The difference was getting shots to the net.  The Pens got 36 of 57 attempts to the net (63.2 percent), while the Caps got only 22 of 54 (40.7 percent) to the net.

-- Alex Ovechkin had almost a third of the Caps’ shots on goal (seven of 22).  No one else had more than two, and of the three players who had two, two were defensemen (Christian Djoos and John Carlson).

-- Christian Djoos is the first rookie defenseman to record two or more points in a season (that’s right, in a season, not a game) since the Caps had four blueliners do it in the 2013-2014 season: Alexander Urbom, Patrick Wey, Connor Carrick, and Nate Schmidt.  Djoos is now the eighth player from the 2012 draft to appear in a single NHL game.  He is the only one-gamer with two points.  We think he's likely to get more work.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had an assist.  He has perhaps the quietest six points in three games you’ll ever see.

-- Matt Niskanen has had an odd pattern to start the season.  He has alternated games with no penalty minutes (Games 1 and 3) with games of four penalty minutes (Games 2 and 4), and he has all eight of his penalty minutes in his two home games, none in his two away games.

In the end…

As we said in the prognosto, “it is never a bad thing to beat the Penguins, but let’s not make too much of it, either.”  In that same vein, let’s not make too much of a loss, at least not in the context of the team to which the Caps lost.  There are troubling signs, though.  The offense so far is “Ovechkin and (insert name of rookie here)” with support from Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie.  The bottom six forwards and defense have not been heard from much.  That lack of bottom half support is reflected in shot deficits.  Ovechkin has more shots on goal (25) than the next three forwards combined (Oshie, Jakub Vrana, and Brett Connolly).  TheCaps are spending too much time killing penalties.  And, of course, they lost both games to the two teams that just might be the class of the Eastern Conference.

But it’s early, right?  Yeah, but it can get late pretty quick, too, even for a team with a 2-1-1 record.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 4: Penguins at Capitals, October 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The perpetrator returns to the scene of the crime.  On Wednesday night, the Pittsburgh Penguins return to Capital One Arena, where five months and a day ago, they demolished the Stanley Cup dreams of Capitals Nation with a 2-0 Game 7 win over the Caps in their Eastern Conference semi-final series.

A win for the Capitals in this mid-week intradivisional scrap would do little to assuage the bitterness of that postseason defeat, but a win over the Penguins is never a bad thing.  And the Caps, despite giving up a 3-1 lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning before losing a 4-3 overtime decision, catch the Penguins in something of a nether space between Cup hangover and righting their ship (or, given the Penguins, ice floe).

The Caps lead the Metropolitan Division at this early juncture with a 2-0-1 record, while the Penguins waddle into Capital One Arena fresh off a 4-0 gobsmacking of the Nashville Predators in a reprise of last spring’s Stanley Cup final.  The shutout was certainly welcome for the Pens, who allowed 15 goals in their first two contests, including a 10-1 shellacking by the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center last Thursday.

As it is, the Penguins still come into this game with the worst scoring defense in the league (5.00 goals allowed per game, tied with the Winnipeg Jets through Monday's games).  And as one might expect, goaltending is a bit of an issue.  With the departure of Marc-Andre Fleury to the Vegas Golden Knights, the keys to the car have been put in the hands of Matt Murray, who certainly has demonstrated his playoff mettle, going 22-9, 1.95, .928, with four shutouts in 32 postseason appearances over the last two seasons.  He has found the early going this season a bit rougher, posting a 1-0-1, 3.84, .879 record in three appearances.  It isn’t as rough as his regular season record against the Caps: 2-2-0, 4.43, .862 in four appearances. 

What it is, is considerably better than his backup.  Antti Niemi was signed to assume Murray’s spot as the backup after the latter’s elevation to the number one spot.  So far, he has logged a little over nine minutes of play and allowed four goals on 13 shots (.692 save percentage).  It is not the start one might have desired for a player who last season with the Dallas Stars went 12-12-4, 3.30, .892.  It signals a disturbing trend toward mediocrity...or worse.  His goals-against average and save percentage were the worst of any of his eight full seasons in the NHL, and for the first time in those eight seasons he failed to post a single shutout.  If there is one thing arguing for Niemi getting the call against the Caps, it is that he has never lost to the Caps in regulation in eight appearances, posting a 5-0-3, 2.52, .912 record with one shutout.

1.  It’s three games in, but who had “Olli Maatta” as the Penguins’ leading goal scorer?  He has two; seven other players have one apiece.

2.  None of those other players happens to be defenseman and perennial Norris candidate Kris Letang, who has yet to record a point in three games, despite averaging more than 25 minutes in ice time and being second on the team in shots on goal with 12 (Phil Kessel has 13).  He is also a team-worst minus-5.

3.  The Penguins have had a hard time playing well with others.  Their 15 shorthanded situations faced through Monday’s games is topped only by the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 17 such situations.  They have not yet allowed a road power play goal though, going 6-for-6.  Oddly enough, they did that in the 10-1 pasting the Blackhawks put on them last week.

4.  Not known as an especially physical team, the Penguins are nevertheless ranked second in credited hits through Monday’s games (90).  Only the St. Louis Blues have been credited with more (97).  Pair that with the fact that the Pens have the third-highest total of blocked shots (48), and it appears they are chasing the puck more than carrying the puck.

5.  Odd Power Play Fact… The Penguins are the only team in the league thus far with two goals scored at 5-on-3.  They do not have a 5-on-4 power play goal.

1.  Last season, the Caps lost just two of 43 games in which they led after two periods, one in regulation and one in overtime.  They are half-way there with their overtime loss to Tampa Bay on Monday night.

2.  Washington has the second-worst shots on goal differential in the league through Monday’s games.  Their minus-11.3 shot differential per game is ahead of only the Arizona Coyotes (minus-12.5).

3.  The Caps are winning 57.3 percent of their even strength draws.  Think that leads the league?  Nope, not close.  Boston is an insane 63-for-90 (70.0 percent).

4.  That the Caps have a talented top six is pretty much a given.  Need further proof?  Their top five point-getters are in the forward top six (Evgeny Kuznetsov – 8; Alex Ovechkin – 7; Nicklas Backstrom – 5; T.J. Oshie – 4; Jakub Vrana – 3).

5.   The Caps are one of three teams in the early going with at least 10 even strength goals.  They are third with ten, with Toronto (12) and Chicago (16) ahead of them.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Evgeni Malkin

Evgeni Malkin, a gifted player with a hall of fame pedigree, has always occupied an odd place in the NHL and with the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The word association exercise is not hard.  Malkin is to Sidney Crosby as... Scottie Pippen is to Michael Jordan, or as Don Drysdale is to Sandy Koufax, or as Billy Kilmer is to Sonny Jurgensen.  He has been a necessary, even essential ingredient to the Penguins’ success since he came into the league in the 2006-2007 season, but he has played that role as the “other guy” to a degree.  And now, in his 12^th NHL season, all with the Pens, he finds himself almost an oddly anonymous resident among the franchise’s all-time rankings:

• Games played: 709 (6^th)
• Goals: 329 (4^th)
• Assists: 507 (4^th)
• Points: 836 (4^th)
• Plus-Minus: plus-73 (10^th)
• Game-winning goals: 57 (3^rd)
• Power play goals: 119 (2^nd)

Even as injuries have kept him under 70 games in a season five times in 11 full seasons (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 season), he is among the most prolific offensive players of his era.  Only once in 12 seasons has he averaged less than a point a game (37 points in 43 games of the 2010-2011 season).  But, he has had something of a shadow cast upon him by Alex Ovechkin, drafted ahead of him in 2004, and by the white-hot light of Sidney Crosby, who has been the face of the franchise since he was drafted in 2005.  It seems unlikely his lot in life in the NHL will change, just as it seems unlikely his march up the franchise’s all-time rankings will be halted.  Malkin is 16-35-51, even, in 36 career games against Washington.

Washington:  Andre Burakovsky

We noted above that the Caps’ top five point getters so far this season are among the team’s top-six forwards.  The odd man out so far is Andre Burakovsky, who is 0-2-2 so far (ok, he is tied with John Carlson for sixth in points so far).  Part of the problem could be that he is part of an entirely reworked second line.  Last year’s line of Marcus Johansson – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Justin Williams has been replaced with Burakovsky, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie. At least through three games, the chemistry on that line has not come as easily as it has for the top line, although all three members of that line recorded points against Tampa Bay in the 4-3 overtime loss on Monday night.  Burakovsky, though, is being counted on to fill some of the goal scoring production lost with the departures of Williams and Johansson, but as yet he has just three shots on goal in three games without lighting the red light.  Burakovsky is 5-4-9, plus-1, in 12 career games against Pittsburgh.

In the end…

The Penguins and Capitals is billed as a “rivalry” game, but this has become a rivalry in a somewhat perfunctory sense.  The Caps have enjoyed a measure of success against the Pens in the regular season, going 19-11-6 against the Penguins since the 2008-2009 season.  But then they go toes up in the playoffs, eliminated three times in three series against the Pens over that span, postseasons that ended in Penguin Stanley Cups.

In that sense, there might be a certain ambivalence attached to this contest.  Sure, it is never a bad thing to beat the Penguins, but let’s not make too much of it, either.  The way the NHL chose to organize itself means that for the Caps, the road to a Stanley Cup almost certainly goes through Pittsburgh, and crossing that bridge (it’s a Three Rivers thing) is not something they will get to for months.  Still…

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2

A ONE-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 3: Lightning 4 - Capitals 3 (OT)

The Washington Capitals took to the road on Thursday night, visiting the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.  The Caps got out to a 3-1 lead early in the second period, only to see the Lightning tie it mid-way through the third period to force extra time.  The Lightning were granted a power play chance in the extra session, and they converted it to send the Caps to their first loss of the season, 4-3.

First Period

For two teams with a lot of offensive firepower, they came out like a couple of heavyweights in a prize fight content just to feel one another out.  The Caps grabbed a shovel and started digging themselves a hole when Aaron Ness took a penalty in the fifth minute of the period, and then took another penalty nine minutes later.  The Caps held the Bolts to one shot on their two power plays.  After that, they handed the shovel to the Lightning to start digging a hole.  Nicklas Backstrom got the Caps on the board, taking a cross-ice feed from Andre Burakovsky, gliding through the right wing circle, and snapping a shot that seemed to handcuff goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy at the 16:42 mark. 

Barely 20 seconds later, the Caps found themselves on their first power play of the evening, Yanni Gourde sent off for slashing.  Just over a minute into the power play, John Carlson took a pass from Backstrom at the blue line, walked the puck back to the middle of the ice, then flipped a shot at the net that nicked T.J. Oshie on the way through to give the Caps a 2-0 lead at the first intermission.

Second Period

The Caps got burned in the sixth minute of the period when they were trying to move the puck into the Lightning end of the ice.  A pass to Alex Ovechkin at the red line went awry, and Braydon Coburn grabbed the sliding puck.  He fed it up to Brayden Point heading down the left wing, and after carrying it across the blue line, Point found Alex Killorn before he was plastered by Dmitri Orlov.  It was taking a hit to make a play, though, as Killorn one-timed the pass high over goalie Philipp Grubauer’s glove, and it was 2-1, Caps.

Oshie got it back on a power play just over two minutes later.  With the Lightning short for a faceoff violation, the Caps worked the puck around the perimeter, setting up Oshie for a one-timer  that was foiled, but Evgeny Kuznetsov swept the loose puck back to Backstrom along the boards.  Backstrom waited until Oshie found space and a passing lane in the middle, then threaded a pass that Oshie one-timed off the far post and behind Vasilevskiy to make it 3-1 at the 7:49 mark.

Tampa Bay got back to within a goal late when Anton Stralman sent a lollipop of a shot at the net that was redirected by Chris Kunitz (yes, that Chris Kunitz) down and to the left of Grubauer’s pad to make it 3-2 with 1:51 left in the period.

Third Period

The Caps survived an early Tampa Bay power play on which the Lightning recorded six shots on goal, but the Lightning pressure was persistent as the period wore on.  It finally bore fruit at the 10:46 mark when Nikita Kucherov barreled into the Caps’ zone and with Taylor Chorney trying to get a body and a stick on him, roofed a backhand over Grubauer’s left shoulder to tie the game, 3-3.  It was part of an onslaught on the Washington net as the Lightning outshot the Caps, 17-6.

Extra Time

The Caps stepped in it right away, taking a too-many-men penalty just 1:21 into the extra frame.  With less than 15 seconds left before killing it off, the Caps allowed their first power play goal of the season, Nikita Kucherov one-timed a feed that ricocheted off Brayden Point and past Grubauer’s glove for the game-winner.

Other stuff…

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s first period goal was his first of the season and 189^th as a Capital, passing Bobby Carpenter for eighth place on the team’s all-time list of goal scorers.  Next up is Dave Christian with 193 goals in 504 games played with the Caps from 1983 to 1990.

-- When T.J. Oshie recorded a goal and an assist in the first period, it made it 29 multi-point games as a Cap, passing Bengt Gustafsson and tying Andrei Nikolishin, Eric Fehr, and Troy Brouwer for 35^th place in team history.  When he scored his second goal, he had his tenth three-point game as a Cap, tying Dave Christian, Ulf Dahlen, and Dainius Zubrus for 21^st place on the team’s all-time list.

--  Backstrom’s assist on Oshie’s second goal gave him a three-point night, his 65^th as a Capital, second-most in team history (Alex Ovechkin has 92).

-- Washington allowed 40 shots, the third straight game in which they allowed more than 30 shots on goal.  The Caps allowed only one team 40 or more shots last season, that coming in a 3-2 win over the Winnipeg Jets On November 1, 2016, when they allowed 45 shots on goal.

-- Tampa Bay out-shot the Caps, 22-7 over the third period and overtime.  Overall, they out-attempted Washington, 83-48.

-- John Carlson led the team with six shots on goal and eight shot attempts.

-- The Caps allowed 12 shots on goal on the last two Tampa Bay power plays.

-- Dmitry Orlov played a team-high 27:32 for the Caps.  John Carlson (26:15) and Matt Niskanen (25:54) also topped 25 minutes.

-- Jay Beagle had an uncharacteristically off night in the circle, going 4-for-13 overall and 2-for-8 in the defensive end.

-- The domination by the Lightning at fives was complete.  They out-attempted the Caps, 60-33, at 5-on-5 (64.52 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

The problems the Caps have were on display tonight.  They are replacing half of their defense from last season with players who, frankly, are not as talented as those they are replacing, and Brooks Orpik is being asked to play second pair minutes when he played mostly third pair minutes last season.  The best thing you can say is that perhaps things will sort themselves out, that the new guys will improve enough to at least not be a liability on the ice.  But the Lightning made up a 3-1 deficit by scoring two goals with the Taylor Chorney/Aaron Ness defensive pair on the ice.  Consider that Chorney played barely ten minutes (10:17), and Ness played just 8:56, and one has to be concerned that this is something teams will look to exploit on a night-to-night basis.  The Caps did get a point, but it was one point fewer than they should have taken from this game, defensive breakdowns (not limited to Chorney/Ness by any means) and an inability to put the team away when they had a 3-1 lead less than half-way through the contest dooming them in the end.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Capitals at Lightning, October 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals go back on the road on Monday for their only visit to Tampa this season to face the Lightning.  Washington will be looking to extend their winning streak to three games, while the Lightning, who split their home-and-home set against the Florida Panthers to start the season, will be looking for their second straight win on home ice.

Alex Ovechkin will be looking to do the next to impossible, posting a third straight hat trick contest. He had only two all of last season, those coming almost four months apart.  He had a late November hattie against the St. Louis Blues and then a late March hat trick against the Minnesota Wild.

Tampa Bay will be looking to foil Ovechkin and the Caps despite having allowed eight goals in two games so far (sixth-worst goals against per game in the league).  The Lightning are part of a strange “Southeast Division” thing going on in the first week of the season.  They, the Panthers, and the Carolina Hurricanes – all former Southeast Division teams – are the only ones in the league averaging four or more goals allowed per game and four or more goals scored.  

It is only two games, but the Lightning have spread their goal scoring around.  Four players– Ondrej Palat, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov, and Brayden Point – have two goals apiece in the early going.  Point, a third-round draft pick of the Lightning (2014), leads the team with five points.

At the other end, Andrei Vasilevskiy got the nod in goal for both Lightning games to open the season, and he started slowly.  He has allowed eight goals on 84 shots (.905 save percentage) with a 4.08 goals against average. It is quite a bit different from his start last season in which he went 2-0-0, 1.51, .952 in his first two contests.

As for the Caps, they will be trying to extend a lengthy points streak against the Bolts.  Washington has not lost a game in regulation against Tampa Bay since dropping a 4-3 decision in Tampa on November 1, 2014.  Since then, the Caps are 7-0-1, the only blemish being a 2-1 Gimmick loss in Tampa last December 3^rd.

1.  Last season was the first season in Lightning history in which they recorded more than 40 wins (42) and failed to reach the playoffs.

2.  Little things… Tampa Bay had the fourth-worst faceoff percentage in the league last season (47.7 percent).

3.  The Lightning finished second in the league in home power play opportunities last season (149; Winnipeg had 152).  They did a good job of converting those opportunities, finishing fourth in home power play efficiency (24.21 percent).

4.  Tampa Bay finished third last season in penalty minutes per game (10:40).  They managed that feat despite being one of just six teams not to be charged with a game misconduct.

5.  It’s early, but the Lightning have awful possession numbers.  Their 36.14 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 is 30^th of 31 teams through two games (Vancouver is 33.8 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  It’s early here, too.  The Caps are dead last in the league in shots on goal per game (25.5).

2.  Through Saturday’s games, only one team having played two games has been charged with feweer giveaways than the Caps (10).  St. Louis has six.

3.  The Caps are second in the league in faceoff winning percentage (57.6 percent).  Only Toronto (57.9 percent) outranks them.

4.  Odd fact…the Caps are the only team in the league with both a one-goal win and a win by three or more goals.  But hey, it’s early.

5.  The Caps have the worst special teams time differential in the league.  They have spent 9:11 more time on penalty killing than they have on power plays.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

When Steven Stamkos is healthy, he scores goals.  Over the last eight seasons of his career, he played in 70 or more games five times and scored 35 or more goals five times.  He topped 40 four times.  Even in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season he recorded 29 goals in 48 games, a 50-goal pace.  The trouble is, he appeared in fewer than 40 games in two of the last four seasons.  He missed 45 games in the 2013-2014 season to a broken leg and 65 games last season to a knee injury.  Even so, in those two seasons combined he recorded 34 goals over 54 games, a 52-goal pace.  He is the most effective goal scorer (0.55 goals per game since he entered the league in 2008-2009) not named “Ovechkin” (0.59 goals per game over that span) in the NHL.  That Tampa Bay is on the short list of Stanley Cup contenders this season is due in large part to the expected contribution – and durability – of Stamkos this season.  In 35 career games against the Caps, he is 15-14-29, minus-14.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

If you were asked, which Capital has more career goals per game against the Tampa Bay Lightning than any other Capital, you would reflexively respond “Alex Ovechkin.”  Good answer.  He has 41 goals in in 63 games against the Lightning (0.65 per game).  You would also be wrong.  T.J. Oshie has 10 goals in 14 career games against the Lightning (0.71 goals per game), one of four teams against which he has posted at least ten goals and the only one who was exclusively a member of the Eastern Conference (Columbus, Dallas, and Nashville are the others).  Oshie had his only hat trick of the 2016-2017 against Tampa Bay at Amalie Arena in a 5-3 win.  He also had three goals in three games against the Bolts in the 2015-2016 season with the Caps.  Oshie has been something of a road warrior with the Caps, too.  In 76 road games with the Caps over the past two-plus seasons he has 28 goals, second on the club to Alex Ovechkin (40).

In the end…

If there is a to-do list early, these teams have them.  The Caps will be looking to get more balanced goal scoring.  Not that seven goals in two games from Alex Ovechkin is a bad thing, but three from the rest of the lineup could use improvement.  The other side of that coin for the Caps is getting other players getting shots to the net.  The 8.1 shooting percentage from players not named “Ovechkin” is not bad, but they have to improve on the 37 shots on goal they have in the two games so far.  Lars Eller, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Jay Beagle each have only one shot on goal; Nicklas Backstrom has only two.  For the Lightning, the task at hand is preventing goals. Eight goals allowed in two games is not a cause for panic, but neither is it sustainable for a contender.  All things considered, though, one would rather have the Caps’ “problems,” to the extent they have them.

Capitals 4 – Lightning 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 1

The Washington Capitals opened their 2017-2018 season this week, and it was something of an historic opening.  From a pair of wins, to a goal explosion, to a debut from down under, it was a Week 1 to remember.

Record: 2-0-0

The Caps opened their season with a pair of wins, the first time they accomplished that feat since the 2011-2012 season.  That’s the good news.  The bad news…the Caps won their first seven games that season and yet had a new coach by the end of November, when Bruce Boudreau was relieved in favor of Dale Hunter.  Worse, the same thing happened in the 2007-2008 season, when the Caps won their first two games and, again, had a new coach by the end of November, when Boudreau relieved Glen Hanlon behind the Caps’ bench.  Moral of the story… don’t get too high with the highs or too low with the lows.

Offense:  5.00/game (season: 5.00/game, 3^rd)

Alex Ovechkin is not going to score 287 goals this season.  You can write that one down in pen.  But with seven goals in two games, he became the first player in 100 years to record hat tricks in consecutive games to open an NHL season, the first since Cy Denneny, Reg Noble, and Joe Malone all did so to open the 1917-1918 season.  However, as a technical matter, Ovechkin might be the first ever to record “hat tricks” in consecutive games to open a season, if you believe that the custom of tossing hats on the ice for a three-goal game originated in Guelph, Ontario. 

Almost forgotten in the Ovechkin avalanche of goals is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded seven assists (Kuznetsov and Ovechkin ended the week tied for the league lead in total scoring with seven points apiece and tied for second in plus-minus with several other players plus-6 apiece), while rookie Jakub Vrana added three more, giving the top line quite a week.  To that add that Nathan Walker, appearing in his first game, recorded his first NHL goal, and he hit history’s Daily Double – the first player from Australia to appear in an NHL game and becoming the first Australian to record a goal in an NHL game.  Brett Connolly and T.J. Oshie added the other goals of the week, and 14 different skaters recorded a point for the team.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.50/game, T-9^th)

The Caps held, if that is the right word, Ottawa and Montreal to 90 shot attempts for the week, which puts them in the middle of the pack, tied for 12-th most in the league with Winnipeg and the New York Islanders (numbers from NHL.com).  Worse, that volume of shot attempts left he Caps with the tenth-worst shot attempt plus minus in the league (minus-11).  If there was a bright spot, it was that the Caps were plus-9 when the score was tied, and the minus-21 when ahead is largely a score effect of having jumped out to such a big lead against the Montreal Canadiens early (4-0 after one period on Saturday night).

It was hard to be Brett Connolly this week in the defensive end.  Connolly was on ice for four of the five goals scored against the Caps.  Brooks Orpik and John Carlson were on ice together for three goals against of their own.

Goaltending: 2.40 / .930 (season: 2.40 / .930)

Braden Holtby got both starts for the Caps in Week 1, and his week was somewhat typical of a Holtby season start.  He has never been particularly effective in his first game of the season (see our prognosto on the Montreal game for more on that).  And against the Ottawa Senators, he was consistent with that profile, allowing four goals on 32 shots.  He did not have as much help in front of him as he might be accustomed to, but it was not a classic Holtby performance, either.  He did finish that game strong, and that effort spilled over into the performance against the Canadiens to end the week.  He stopped 38 of 39 shots and resisted the temptation to lose focus as the Caps went out to a big lead early.

Power Play: 1-for-5 / 20.0 percent (season: 20.0 percent / T-11th)

There is not much to glean from the power play in Week 1.  Yes, it did record a goal.  Yes, it was an Alex Ovechkin goal.  Some things are slow to change.  The power play was also victimized by a shorthanded goal when the Caps forgot how to defend on a power play against the Canadiens, giving up the puck and letting Brendan Gallagher score from the top of the paint while a man down. Ovechkin had half of the shots on the man advantage for the week (four of eight), and the Caps recorded eight power play shots in 8:16 of power play ice time.  All in all, it was for the most part a rather typical week, the shortie notwithstanding.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-9 / 100.0 percent (season: 100.0 percent / T-1^st)

There was good and bad on the penalty kill this week for the Caps.  Well, mostly good.  The bad part was the volume.  The nine shorthanded situations faced is in the middle of the pack in the league rankings (tied for 11^th-most), but it was almost twice as many special teams opportunities for Ottawa and Montreal as the Caps had for the week (five).  That led to those two opponents enjoying a better than 2-to-1 edge in power play ice time(17:27 to 8:16).  The Caps might have been on the short side of opportunities and minutes on special teams, but they did not allow an inordinate number of shots relative to minutes (16 in 17:27).  It is, and it was to be expected, to be a work in progress at the start of the season with new penalty killers in the rotation, but it was a good week, all things considered.

Faceoffs: 72-for-125 / 57.6 percent (season: 57.6 percent / 2^nd)

If you are going to keep teams from scoring, it is best to have the puck.  And what better way to do that than to take possession of it from the puck drop, especially in the defensive end?  The Caps had a fine week overall in the circle, but they shined in the defensive end, winning 33 of 47 defensive zone draws (70.2 percent).  Jay Beagle gave a master class in the subject, winning 15 of 17 defensive zone faceoffs (88.2 percent) as part of a 73.1 percent week overall.  Evgeny Kuznetsov, who won just 44.0 percent of his draws last season, was a surprise, winning 14 of 24 draws overall (58.3 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom was the only Capital to take ten or more draws and finish under 50 percent for the week (16-for-34/47.1 percent).

Goals by Period:

That four-spot in the first period against Montreal in the second game of the week tilted the goal scoring toward the beginning of games, but don’t forget that three-goal third period against Ottawa in the opener.  It reminded Caps fans that the team can still be explosive, scoring seven goals in a span of 33:55 across two games.  Of course, Alex Ovechkin had six of them in what was a remarkable week for him, even in the context of his career body of work (T.J. Oshie had the other one).  At the other end, the Caps spread the gloom of opponents’ goals across the periods and did not allow either Ottawa or Montreal to score consecutive goals in any single period for the week, a way to stall momentum.

In the end…

Two games, two wins in the bank.  If you are of the picky sort, you would say the Caps escaped with a win on Thursday and leaned too heavily on Alex Ovechkin on Saturday.  If you are of a forgiving sort, you might respond, “so what?”  Sometimes the captain takes over a game, and sometimes you rally from behind.  In the context of a long season, neither game of the sort the Caps played this week is particularly informative.  But you can’t take two wins off the ledger, and that is the takeaway from this week.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (7-0-7, plus-6, 14 SOG, 21 shot attempts, two history-making hat tricks)
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-7-7, plus-6, 58.3 percent FO (7-for-8 in the defensive zone))
• Third Star: Nathan Walker (1-0-1, plus-1, first Australian to play in an NHL game, first Australian to score an NHL goal, first to do it in his debut game)

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 2: Capitals 6 - Canadiens 1

Alex Ovechkin can now add his name to the list that includes Cy Denneny, Reg Noble, and Joe Malone.  Ovechkin became the fourth player in NHL history to record hat tricks in back-to-back games to start a season and the first in 100 years (from Elias Sports Bureau) as the Caps steamrolled the Montreal Canadiens, 6-1, at Capital One Arena on Saturday night in the team’s season opener.  And in a double first, Nathan Walker became the first Australian player to appear in an NHL game, and he became the first Australian player to record a goal in the NHL.

First Period

Wayne Gretzky once said, “you miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take.”  It might explain Alex Ovechkin going after a loose puck above the left wing circle, spinning, and slapping the bouncing puck over the glove of what appeared to be an utterly shocked goalie Carey Price 20 seconds into the contest to set the stage.

Less than half a minute later, the Caps had a 2-0 lead when T.J. Oshie recorded his first goal of the season off a Montreal turnover.  Jordie Benn circled out of the corner in the defensive end and tried to move the puck up ice, but Andre Burakovsky intercepted the feed.  Burakovsky fed Oshie moving through the left wing circle, and Oshie left it for Nicklas Backstrom.  The shot from Backstrom was stopped by Price, but not covered, and Oshie swooped in to swat the puck behind Price from the goal line to Price’s right just 46 seconds into the period.

Before the game was three minutes old, the Caps had a 3-0 lead when, on a power play, Ovechkin declared his office open for business.  Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom played catch on the right side of the power play formation until Kuznetsov found a lane through the middle of the ice to Ovechkin in the left wing circle.  Ovechkin one-timed the puck past a twirling Price to make it 3-0 at the 2:51 mark.

Neither the Caps nor Ovechkin were done with the first period yet, though.  With under two minutes in the period, the Caps worked the puck around the perimeter, Evgeny Kuznetsov to Aaron Ness, and back to Kuznetsov circling to the top of the left wing circle.  Kuznetsov’s blast from the top of the circle was redirected by Ovechkin past Price at the  18:10 mark to take a 4-0 lead to the first intermission.

Second Period

Montreal came out with a new goalie – Al Montoya in relief of Price – and a new attitude, pressuring the Caps from the start.  It made for a period dominated by Braden Holtby in the Caps’ goal.  It paid off when Brendan Gallagher got loose at the top of the paint and converted a feed from below the goal line by Paul Byron to get the Canadiens on the board 4:50 into the period.

Ovechkin would restore the four-goal margin late in the period.  Circling through the right wing circle, Ovechkin fed Kuznetsov, who moved to the middle to create space.  It was enough to feed Ovechkin heading to the net from Price’s left.  As he reached the top of the paint, Ovechkin pulled the puck to his backhand and slid it toward Montoya.  It hit two Canadiens’ skates before it slithered across the line just before Oshie could tap it in.  Then, late in the period, Nathan Walker made history again.  He made it 79 seconds into the game when he stepped onto the ice as the first Australian to play in an NHL game.  And at the 18:05 mark of the second period, he made some more.  Jay Beagle won a draw in the offensive zone to the left of goalie Al Montoya.  Devante Smith-Pelly settled the puck at the top of the right wing circle and fired.  The puck hit Walker on the way through and eluded Montoya to give Walker his first NHL goal and the first “Australian” goal in NHL history.

Third Period

No scoring in this period, but by this time, who cared?

Other stuff…

- For some players, hat tricks are thought of in terms of games.  Alex Ovechkin recorded hat tricks in consecutive periods, following up his three-goal third period against Ottawa on Thursday with a three-goal first period on Saturday. 

-- Ovechkin might have made it a career-high five-goal night in the last minute, but on an odd-man rush, he passed up a shot to feed Evgeny Kuznetsov, who fed Jakub Vrana, who whiffed on the opportunity.  As it was, it was Ovechkin’s fourth career four-goal game.

-- Ovechkin has seven goals in two games.  In the last thirty years, it is the most goals in the first two games of an NHL season.  Three players opened the season with five goals: Mike Gartner in 1988, Wendel Clark in 1992, and Brendan Shanahan in 1994.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had four assists, the second four-assist game of his career.  He had four helpers in a 6-3 win over the Blue Jackets in Columbus on January 19, 2016.  It was the fourth four-point game of his career.

-- Eleven skaters had points for the Caps, 14 skaters finished as “plus” players.  Only Brett Connolly was on the minus side of the ledger (minus-1).

-- The Caps enjoyed a whopping 41-26 edge in faceoffs.  Jay Beagle (11-for-14) and Lars Eller (12-for-19) were especially dominant.

-- Nathan Walker, all 5’9”, 186 pound of him, led the Caps in hits with four.

-- Ovechkin had more than a third of the Caps’ total shots on goal (eight of 23).

-- With 38 saves on 39 shots, Braden Holtby improved his record against Montreal to 11-1-2, 1.57, .944, with two shutouts.

-- Score effects in one graph (from Corsica.hockey)...

In the end…

It would be hard to script a home opener better than that.  Maybe raising a Stanley Cup banner, but a four-goal game from the Captain, a sterling effort from the star goalie, and an unprecedented debut isn’t bad.  Two games in, and Alex Ovechkin has more than a third (six) of all the even strength goals he scored last season (16), and in doing it he has not forgotten the address of his office.  His hat trick goal was perhaps the most telling.  And he took advantage of an old teammate in doing it.  With the Caps working the puck around the perimeter, Ovechkin is working his way across the high slot, fighting for position with a Canadien defenseman – former Cap Karl Alzner.  He worked his way into position to free his stick to get enough of the Evgeny Kuznetsov shot to elude Carey Price.  If this is now in Ovechkin’s repertoire, it could be a big season for the captain and the Caps.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Canadiens at Capitals, October 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals break the seal on the home portion of their 2016-2017 season on Saturday night when they host the Montreal Canadiens at Capital One Arena.  This is the second time in four seasons that the Caps opened at home against Montreal, the previous instance – the only other time the Caps faced the Canadiens in a home opener – being a 2-1 Gimmick loss to open the 2014-2015 season.

The Caps are coming off a come-from-behind, 5-4 Gimmick win over the Ottawa Senators, a contest in which Alex Ovechkin recorded his 18^th career hat trick.  Montreal also won their season opener in a Gimmick, Jonathan Drouin potting the game-deciding trick shot in a 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night. It was also a come-from-behind affair for the Canadiens, who twice fell behind the Sabres by a goal.

The Caps won last season’s series in an odd fashion, winning both games played at Bell Centre in Montreal (by scores of 4-1 and 3-2), but they lost the only contest at Capital One Arena (then Verizon Center), 2-1.

The Canadiens have had, if not quite as long as the Caps, a string of postseason frustrations of their own.  Since they won the Stanley Cup in 1993, they have reached the postseason only 15 times in 23 seasons, and since reaching the Eastern Conference final in 2014, failed to get out of the second round in their two playoff appearances in three seasons since.  They will try to improve upon that in Claude Julien’s second season in what is his second tour as Montreal head coach He began his NHL head coaching career with Montreal serving from 2003-2006).  Strangely enough, his winning percentage as a coach is worst behind the Canadiens’ bench (.552) than it was in either of his two other postings, with Boston (.614 over ten seasons, including a Stanley Cup in 2011) and New Jersey (.646 in his only season with the Devils).

1.  Montreal had a strange penalty profile last season.  They were one of only four teams (along with San Jose, Edmonton, and Anaheim) to be charged with at least one of every category of penalty: minor, major, misconduct, game misconduct, match, and bench.

2.  If possession on power plays means something, Montreal did a poor job in starting power plays with it.  Only one team in the league had fewer than the 189 power play faceoff wins than Montreal had last season (Columbus had 178).  Then again, the Canadiens had the fourth-fewest power play opportunities in the league (229).

3.  The Canadiens had the best winning percentage in the league last season when trailing games after two periods (.314) on a record of 11-20-4.

4.  If the Capitals had their challenges scoring at 4-on-4 last season (they did not have a 4-on-4 goal in the regular season), Montreal was not far behind.  The Canadiens had one such goal.  They did, however, do a better job in disallowing 4-on-4 goals yielding two to the Caps’ four.

5.  Extra time was good to the Canadiens last season.  They had the second-highest number of overtime goals (11) while allowing seven (tied for tenth).  Added to their 3-2 record in the Gimmick, Montreal was 14-9 in extra time games.  They were 33-26 in games settled in regulation.

1.  The Capitals trail the all-time series against Montreal, 69-71-5, with 17 ties.  However, consider the Caps went their first five seasons without a win over the Habs (0-30-2).  The Caps have not lost a season series to Montreal since the 2006-2007 season, when they lost three of four games to the Canadiens.  Over the last ten seasons the Caps are 23-8-4 against Montreal overall and 9-6-2 at home.

2.  Last season the Caps won two of three games against Montreal and outscored them, 8-5.  Nicklas Backstrom had three of the goals, one in each game.  No other Capital had more than one in the season series.

3.  Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded his fourth career game-deciding trick shot in the win over Ottawa, tied with Matt Hendricks for fourth-most in Caps history (Ovechkin leads with ten).

4.  Backstrom (3-1-4) and Alex Ovechkin (1-3-4) led the club in scoring against Montreal last season.

5.  It would surprise no one that Alex Ovechkin is the Caps’ all-time leader in goals scored against Montreal (23 in 42 games).  What might be mildly surprising is that he is tied for the franchise lead in assists against the Habs, and not with Nicklas Backstrom.  Ovechkin and Mike Gartner have 21 assists against the Canadiens as Capitals.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Carey Price

If Braden Holtby is not the best goaltender in the NHL (you Sergei Bobrovsky fans notwithstanding), Carey Price seems the likely owner of that description.  Since he arrived in the NHL in 2007-2008, he is one of four goaltenders to appear in at least 200 games, post a goals against average of 2.40 or lower, record a save percentage of .920 or better, and put at least 30 shutouts on his resume (Holtby is in that group, too).   After appearing in just 12 games of the 2015-2016 season, due to a knee injury, Price rebounded smartly in 2016-2017, finishing eighth in goals-against average (2.23), 12^th in save percentage (.923), while posting three shutouts and 37 wins (minimum: 1000 minutes).  It was a performance good enough to earn him a finalist spot in the voting on the Vezina Trophy for the league’s top goalie (he finished third, behind Holtby and the winner, Bobrovsky).  Price had a rather typical, for him, season against the Caps in 2016-2017, going 1-2-0, 2.69, .911.  It was entirely consistent with his career record against the Caps of 6-11-4, 3.03, .900, with one shutout.  He has been better in Washington, though, going 4-3-1, 2.23, .926 in eight appearances in D.C.

Washington: Braden Holtby

In recent years, the Washington-Montreal match-up has had a subtext to it, that being the Braden Holtby-Carey Price match-up.  And Holtby has not lacked for success against the Canadiens.  Holtby has a sparkling 10-1-2, 1.62, .941 record in 14 games against Montreal, with a pair of shutouts added to that line.  The odd part of that line is how little of it has come at home.  Holtby has only five appearances against Montreal on home ice, where he is 2-1-1, 2.00, .923. 

What Holtby will be competing with to extend his mastery over the Canadiens is his propensity for slow season starts.  Coming into this season he was 2-3-2, 3.50, .881 in seven “first games” of his season.  While he improved generally in his “second games” – 4-2-0 (one no-decision), 2.73, .915, with one shutout – his cannot be called a “Holtby-like” level of performance in those games. In his first appearance of the 2017-2018 campaign, Holtby was, unfortunately, true to form, even if he did get the win – 28 saves on 32 shots (a .875 save percentage). 

In the end…

When two elite goalies lock horns, things might come down to a moment, a mistake, or a mental lapse.  The Caps had more than a few against the Ottawa Senators in the 5-4 season opening win (note: Ottawa scored four or more goals just 19 times last season, 24^th in the league).  Hopefully, it was an example of the Caps working out some early season kinks as they fold a number of new ingredients into the recipe.  If it is an indicator of the level of support Holtby will get over the course of the season, or for too much of the early part of it, it will be a hard season ahead.  This game might be a decent test, the Caps facing a team that ranked just 15^th in scoring offense last season, tied for 18^th in scoring offense on the road.  Additions such as Jonathan Drouin and Alex Hemsky might make the Canadiens a more formidable offense, but the Caps need to button things up.

Capitals 4 - Canadiens 2

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 1: Capitals 5 - Senators 4 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals opened their 2017-2018 season with a 5-4 Gimmick win over the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Center on Thursday night.  It was a game in which the Caps never led until Evgeny Kuznetsov buried the game-winner in the trick shot competition after the teams ended regulation and overtime tied at 4-4.

First Period

That the two teams would skate short shifts in an up-and-down manner was hardly surprising as both teams were trying to get their regular season legs.  But less than seven minutes in, Chris Wideman took a pass from Derick Brassard as he was entering the offensive zone.  Skating down the wall to the edge of the right wing circle, Wideman flipped a shot at the Washington net that eluded a maze of bodies and caught goalie Braden Holtby by surprise, the puck sneaking under his left arm and over the goal line to give the Senators the early lead.

Brett Connolly tied the game less than two minutes later on what football fans might recognize as a “hook and ladder” play.  Matt Niskanen did a fine job to keep a clearing attempt from getting over his head, settled the puck, and sent it at the Senator net, where Lars Eller was camped.  Eller, with his back to the goalie, bump passed the puck back out to Brett Connolly, who leaned into a shot that beat goalie Craig Anderson cleanly, tying the game at 1-1 at the 8:07 mark.

The Caps had another chance when facing an Ottawa power play, Alex Chiasson getting in alone on a break on Anderson, but Anderson dropped his right knee to foil an attempt at the five-hole, and the period ended with the teams tied.

Second Period

The Caps blundered into giving up the first goal of the middle frame when John Carlson could not move the puck out of his own end any deeper than the center red line.  Ottawa went on the rewind, Mark Stone picking up the puck outside the penalty boxes and flipped it to the middle to Derick Brassard.  Gaining the offensive zone, Brassard skated in, then left a semi-drop pass for Stone filling in behind, and Stone snapped the puck past Holtby to make it 2-1, Ottawa, at the 6:52 mark.

Holtby kept the Caps in it late in the period when he foiled a back-door feed to Johnny Oduya pinching in on the weak side.  Holtby got his right pad to the post just in time to stop the attempted redirect.

A goal by Evgeny Kuznetsov on the power play late in the period was washed out, as T.J. Oshie was whistled for playing the puck with a high stick before feeding Kuznetsov for the score.

Third Period

Derick Brassard gave the Senators a two-goal lead when the Senators caught the Caps flustered in their own end.  Matt Niskanen made an uncharacteristic blunder, trying to clear the puck up the middle and out of the zone.  Bobby Ryan picked off the attempt and circled in toward the Caps net.   He could not control the puck well enough before he was too deep, but he did manage to sweep the puck in front from below the goal line.  Brassard was there to bat the puck in, and it was 3-1, barely two minutes into the period.

Then, fans were reminded that while Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Connor McDavid might be on the rise as the next generation of goal scorers, there remains one Alex Ovechkin.  Two minutes after the Brassard goal, the Caps forced the Senators into a turnover in their own end, the puck ending up on Evgeny Kuznetsov’s stick.  From the edge of the paint to the left of Anderson, Kuznetsov found Ovechkin in the left wing circle, and Ovechkin wasted no time snapping the puck past Anderson on the far side to make it 3-2, 4:15 into the period.

Just over a minute later, Ovechkin tied the game by finishing a play he started.  He muffled a clearing attempt by Zach Smith at the blue line, and Jakub Vrana picked up the loose puck.  He circled through the left wing circle and fed Kuznetsov below the circle on the other side. With the defense sliding to Kuznetsov, he fed Ovechkin coming down the slot, and Ovechkin buried the puck to tie the game at the 5:38 mark.

After Mark Stone scored in the seventh minute to restore the Ottawa lead, Ovechkin completed the hat trick.  It was a greasy goal of sorts, born out of some hard work along the boards by all three forwards on the top line.  Vrana started it by stopping a shot around the end boards in the corner to Anderson’s right.  Kuznetsov jumped in to try to spring the puck free, and it squirted out into the left wing faceoff circle.  There, Ovechkin used his body to fend off Nate Thompson, and he managed to get off a snap shot that snuck through Anderson to tie the game once more at the 10:48 mark.

Extra Time

Ottawa had the better of the opportunities in the five-minute overtime, outshooting the Caps, 6-3, but neither team could convert, and the game went to the Gimmick.  Bobby Ryan and Ovechkin exchanged scores, leaving things to the third round and the game on the stick of Kuznetsov.  Circling slowly to his left, Kuznetsov reached the hash marks, then snapped a shot past the stick of Anderson, and the Caps had their season opening win, 5-4.

Other stuff…

-- Opening Night sometimes means the mix of adrenaline and the early stage of the season means shots aren’t placed as neatly as they might be later in the season.  The Caps had 19 shot attempts in the first period, but seven were blocked, and six others were misses.  That left six shots on goal.

-- Alex Ovechkin had no shot attempts in the first period and skated less than six minutes.  If getting him off and running was to be hoped for, those first 20 minutes didn’t do it.  He was much more active in the second period with six shot attempts, two on goal.  Alas, no points.  It was all prologue to a third period in which he recorded a hat trick in the span of 6:33 of the period on three consecutive shots.

-- Ovechkin recorded his 18^th career hat trick, most in the NHL since he came into the league in 2005-2006 (Eric Staal has 13). 

-- Now, here is an Ovechkin hat trick fact to chew on.  Those 18 hat tricks are the most in the NHL since…get this, the 1993-1994 season.  Since then, he shares the top spot with Peter Bondra and Pavel Bure.

-- The Caps enjoyed a 43-28 edge in total shot attempts through 40 minutes, yet trailed 2-1.

-- Jakub Vrana had three chances on his first shift of the second period, all turned away by Anderson. Vrana had four shots on goal on that first shift of the second period, but did not have another shot on goal over the 4:50 he skated over the remainder of the period.

-- The top line was the top line.  Ovechkin (3-0-3), Vrana (0-2-2), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-3-3) recorded 12 of the team’s 28 shots and had 20 of the team’s 62 shot attempts.

-- No one took over the blue line slot opposite John Carlson in training camp, and Brooks Orpik assumed the role more or less by default.  If only for the opener, there were ominous signs.  That pair was on the ice for three of the Senators’ four goals, and both finished minus-3.

-- We noted in the prognosto that season openers have not been kind to Braden Holtby.  Consider the trend a continuing one.  While he was left out to dry a few times and had to come up with some fine saves, especially in overtime, he did allow four goals on 28 shots.  Stopping the last 12 shots over the third period and overtime (five saves were on a Senator power play) was a welcome sight, though.

- There was good and bad on special teams.  The bad…five Ottawa power plays (the Caps were 13-5-0 in games when they allowed five or more power play opportunities last year, but five of the wins came in extra time), including one in overtime.  The good news…the Caps shut them out.

In the end…

Sometimes, a team will win with balance, with a lot of players finding their way onto the score sheet.  Other times, the top players will do the heavy lifting.  And then there are the times when the star comes through in a pinch.  When the Caps fell behind, 3-1, early in the third period, they looked a little like road kill, given the suffocating style the Senators play and would likely deploy in the last 18 minutes.  But the top line played like the top line, and Alex Ovechkin served notice that perhaps last season’s 33 goals was an aberration.  Getting almost ten percent of last year’s total was a fine way to start the season, and while there were kinks and hiccups in the Caps’ game – and even Ovechkin’s early on – the captain came through when needed.