The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 15: Penguins at Capitals: November 14

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The rivalry is renewed.  Caps versus Penguins.  For the 237^th time, these teams will face off against one another in the regular season, the Caps with a 102-104-14 (16 ties) record against the foul fowl.  For the Caps it is a brief home respite interrupting a stretch of six road games.  Pittsburgh comes to Capital One Arena to play the back half of a road back-to-back set of games opening with a matchup in Ottawa against the Senators on Saturday night.  The Caps could be seeing Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin, and head coach Mike Sullivan after they were cleared from COVID protocol.  

Getting Crosby back could be the shot in the arm the Penguins need.  After scoring 23 goals in their first five games, going 3-0-2, they scored only 13 goals in their last six games, going 2-2-2.  Kasperi Kapanen is the goals leader in the recent drought with three.  Kapanen, a 22^nd overall draft pick of the Penguins in 2014, took a roundabout path to his current position with the Pens.  He was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in July 2015 with a 2016 first round draft pick, a third round draft pick in 2016, Scott Harrington and Nick Spaling for a second round draft pick in 2016, Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon and Phil Kessel.  He played for parts of five seasons with the Leafs, posting 41 goals and 90 points in 202 games.  After the 2019-2020 season, he was traded back to Pittsburgh with Pontus Aberg and Jesper Lindgren for a first round draft pick in 2020 , Filip Hallander, Evan Rodrigues and David Warsofsky. One scouting report on Kapanen sates, “owns a very good sniper's release, so goal-scoring is his strong suit. Skates very well and knows how to free himself from coverage to get open. Can even play the point on the power play, due to his great shot,” but he has only 14 goals in 52 games over two seasons with the Pens, a 22-goal pace over 82 games.  It is a decent goal scoring pace for a secondary scorer, but for someone with a “very good sniper’s release,” his production to date with Pittsburgh seems underwhelming. Kapanen is 5-5-10, plus-3, in 15 career games against Washington.

Three other Penguins are multiple goal scorers in their six-game slide. Jake Guentzel and Jeff Carter are not surprises on this short list, but Brock McGinn is an unexpected entry.  McGinn spent his first six NHL seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes, posting 51 goals in 345 games, a 12-goal pace over 82 games.  Last July, McGinn signed as a free agent with Pittsburgh, a four-year/$11 million deal.  He has a 3-3-6, plus-1, scoring line in 12 games and is the sort of secondary scorer whose secondary scoring matters.  Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 in the five games in which he has points, 2-3-2 in the games in which he was held off the points sheet.  His scoring has been almost rhythmic this season – points in his first four games, none in his next three, then points in two straight, and he goes into Saturday’s game without a point in his last three contests. McGinn is 1-0-1, minus-9, in 17 career games against the Caps.

The Penguins have really been decimated on defense, the team dressing nine defensemen in their recent six-game slump.  Only two – Mike Matheson and John Marino – dressed for all six games.  Marino is an interesting player.  He was a sixth-round (154^th overall) pick by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2015 Entry Draft, one of four defensemen the Oilers took in that draft (three of them have appeared in NHL games – Marino, Ethan Bear, and Caleb Jones -- none are still with the Oilers).  He then spent three years skating for Harvard University and bypassing any games in the AHL to take a spot on the Penguins roster in 2019-2020.  Now in his third season with the Pens, he is 10-35-45, plus-19, in 120 career games.  He is second overall among Penguin defensemen in points (six), trailing only Kris Letang (seven), tied with Letang among defensemen in shots on goal (19), second to Letang in credited hits (19 to Letang’s 31), and he is averaging 23:42 in ice time per game, second to Letang (27:38).  Marino is 0-4-4, plus-1, in ten career games against the Capitals.

1.  Going into their game against Ottawa on Saturday night, the Penguins have played in four consecutive extra time games, three of them going to the Gimmick.  The Pens split the four games, going 2-2, beating Philadelphia in overtime and Florida in the Gimmick, while dropping decisions to Minnesota and Chicago in the freestyle competition.

2.  Through Friday’s games, the Penguins had yet to win consecutive games this season.

3.  Each of Pittsburgh’s three wins in regulation were by margins of three goals of more.

4.  The Penguins are a “high event volume” team.  They lead the league in shots on goal per game (35.7); they allow the eighth-highest number of shots on goal (33.3).  The combined 69.0 shots per game, for and against, are most in the league.

5.  Only the New York Islanders have fewer penalty minutes (79) than Pittsburgh (80); their 2.91 penalties taken per 60 minutes are fewest in the league.

1.  The Caps are 28-26-13 in their series against Pittsburgh in the Ovechkin/Crosby era (since 2005-2006) and 14-14-6 at home.

2.  In the Ovechkin/Crosby era, both teams have scored 209 goals.

3.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps have outscored the Penguins, 44-23, in the third periods of games on home ice.

4.  In the Ovechkin/Crosby era, the Caps have never lost a game on home ice when leading after two periods (9-0-1), and they are 10-2-1 when leading after one period.

5.  Washington has not done well in close games on home ice against the Pens in recent years.  Since 205-2006, they are 5-8-6 in one goal games at home.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Tristan Jarry

Is Tristan Jarry the guy, or isn’t he?  With Marc-Andre Fluery and Matt Murray having hauled off their Stanley Cups to different teams, Jarry has become the number one netminder for the Penguins.  Overall, he has been very good, posting a 50-23-7, 2.55, .917 record with five shutouts over the past three seasons, including this one.  But dig a bit deeper, and there are issues about consistency.  In 2019-2020, he was 20-12-1, 2.42, .921, with three shutouts.  He followed that up with a fine 25-9-3 win-loss record in 2020-2021, but he also had a GAA of 2.75 and a save percentage of .909, hardly impressive numbers.  This season he is off to a good start – 5-2-3, 2.23, .929 in ten appearances through Friday.  And there is the matter of the postseason, which was a disaster for Jarry last spring – 2-4, 2.90, .894 in a six-game loss to the New York Islanders in which he allowed four or more goals in four of the six games and lost the last three contests in the series.  Jarry is 4-2-0, 2.49, .921, with one shutout in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Conor Sheary

Conor Sheary is one of the hardest working players you will ever want to see.  Despite his slight build, by hockey standards – 5’9”/178 pounds – he is unafraid to work his way into difficult spaces on the ice to fish out a puck or make a play.  Those qualities, however, do not necessarily make him a good fit for the power play.  Sheary has averaged 2:31 per game in power play time this season, sixth on the team among forwards, and with Anthony Mantha out for the time being (Mantha ranks fifth with 2:34 per game), Sheary might be getting more work with the man advantage.  Consider that he logged no power play time in any of his first four games this season.  However, over his last eight games he logged at least four minutes four times, and only once did he record less than two minutes, that coming in the Caps’ most recent game, against Columbus, and he still skated all of the 1:35 in power play ice time the Caps had.  He does have a power play goal (one of six Caps with at least one) and two power play points (one of six forwards with at least one), but he seems a bit of an odd fit on the power play, essentially getting the minutes (35:09 in total power play minutes) that Nicklas Backstrom would have been getting.  Sheary, the former Penguin, is 6-2-8, plus-8, against his old team.

In the end…

Buckle up and strap on those helmets, it’s Capitals/Penguins.  Never a boring game, always with subplots (in this contest, the dueling injury lists and “The Return of The Sid”).  The Caps are 1-1-2 in their last four home games against Pittsburgh.  The lone win in those games for the Caps featured six third period goal, four of them by the Caps in a 5-2-win.  Things might not play out quite that way, but the Caps will take advantage of the only home cooking they will get until Thanksgiving Eve.

Capitals 5 – Penguins 3

A TWO Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 13: Capitals 2 - Red Wings 0

The Washington Capitals opened their first back-to-back set of games of the season with a visit to Little Caesar’s Arena in Detroit to face the Red Wings.  It was a largely quiet game except for a ten second burst by the Caps mid-way through the first period when they scored both of their goals, and Zach Fucale recorded a 21-save shutout in his NHL debut in the Caps’ 2-0 win.

First Period

Detroit dominated possession early, outshooting the Caps, 7-3, and out-attempting them, 15-7, in the first ten minutes.  But it would be the Caps to open the scoring. Evgeny Kuznetsov collected a loose puck behind the Detroit net, circle out, and fed Dmitry Orlov for a one-timer that beat goalie Thomas Greiss on the blocker side to make it 1-0, 12:43 into the period.

The Caps scored again ten seconds after the Orlov goal. Lars Eller potted his first of the season, taking control of a loose puck just inside the offensive blue line, cutting through a pair of defenders, and beating Greiss with a forehand shot from the top of the crease at the 12:53 mark.

Detroit was awarded the game’s first power play in the last minute of the period when Tom Wilson was sent off for holding.  Detroit did not convert with only 13.6 seconds to work, but the remainder of the time would carry over into the second period.  The Caps went to the locker room up, 2-0.

-- Detroit outshot the Caps, 11-10, and out-attempted them, 24-16.

-- Connor McMichael led the Caps with three shots on goal

-- Washington was smoked in the faceoff circle in the period, winning only six of 20 draws (30.0 percent).

Second Period

Detroit went a man up for a second time when Evgency Kuznetsov tripped Lucas Raymond at the 5:56 mark.  Washington mauled the Red Wings on the penalty kill and skated it off successfully.

Washington was given their first power play of the evening when Moritz Seider was called for interference at the 8:46 mark.  The Caps went up two men when Filip Hronek was sent off for delay of game/puck over the glass at 8:57 of the period.  The Caps had a few good looks, but they failed to make good on either the 5-on-3 or ensuing 5-on-4 advantage.

Washington got its third power play when Michael Rasmussen high-sticked Tom Wilson at the 13:29 mark.  That penalty was killed off, and then Connor McMichael was ticketed for interference at 15:42 of the period for the Caps.  The Caps had a shorthanded chance early in the penalty, but Carl Hagelin’s shot from a sever angle was foiled by Greiss.  Hagelin then went to the box for tripping at 16:19, putting the Red Wings two men to the good.

The Caps killed off the 5-on-3 portion of the penalty, and Connor McMichael, exiting the box, had a breakaway chance.  He tried to backhand the puck past Greiss’ left pad, but the puck skittered along the goal line and settled under Greiss’ right pad.  Washington killed off the 5-on-4 portion of the penalty to preserve their two-goal lead, which is the way the period ended.

-- Washington outshot the Red Wings, 12-4, and out-attempted them, 17-14.

-- The Caps finished the period with 11 blocked shots, all by defensemen (Schultz: 2; Jensen: 3; Orlov: 3; Fehervary: 1; Carlson: 2).

-- Schultz was the only Capital without a shot attempt through 40 minutes.

Third Period

Washington went to their fourth power play 1:25 into the period when Gustav Lindstrom was sent off for cross-checking.  The Caps came up empty with the man advantage, though, and it remained a 2-0 game.

The Caps seemed to have the better of the chances after that but could not find that third goal.  Detroit went to an empty net with more than two minutes remaining looking for some life.  It was to no avail as the Caps closed out the contest, giving Zach Fucale the shutout in the 2-0 win.

Other stuff…

-- From NHL Public Relations: “The Capitals have scored two goals in a span of 10 seconds or less for the 11th time in franchise history. It was the fastest since Alexander Semin and Sergei Fedorov scored nine seconds apart on April 3, 2009.”

-- The Caps were absolutely suffocating on defense in the last 40 minutes, allowing the Red Wings only ten shots on goal.

-- The Caps outshot the Red Wings, 29-21, and out-attempted them, 51-49.

-- Alex Ovechkin finished with no shots on goal, the first time this season he was blanked on the shot meter.  The last time he was blanked was last May 3^rd, when he was held without a shot on goal by the New York Rangers.  The Caps won, nevertheless, 6-3. It was the only instance last season when he was held without a shot on goal.  It was the 17^th time in 1,210 games in his career that he was held without a shot on goal.

-- Daniel Sprong, Connor McMichael, and Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team with four shots apiece; each of them also had five shot attempts to lead the team.

-- Martin Fehervary led the team with four credited hits.

-- Washington was charged with only five giveaways, Ovechkin had three of them.

-- Dmitry had five of the Caps’ 15 blocked shots for the evening.

-- John Carlson led the team with 24:13 in ice time.  Kuznetsov and Ovechkin each logged more than 22 minutes.

-- Zach Fucale played 201 games in minor league hockey with nine different teams (85 in the AHL, 116 in the ECHL) before getting his NHL debut.  What a long road it was.  The shutout in his NHL debut was like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

In the end…

 

The Caps defense played their best game of the year and one of the best games they played in quite some time.  But the night belongs to Zach Fucale, who is probably the happiest player in the NHL this evening.  Shutouts are always to be cherished, but to get one in one’s NHL debut?  Simply amazing.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 14: Capitals at Blue Jackets: November 12

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals complete their back-to-back set of games for this week when they visit the Columbus Blue Jackets and their infernal goal cannon at Nationwide Arena on Friday night.  Columbus goes into the game on a three-game winning streak, their longest of the season to date.  Two of the three games took extra time, and the third featured a late empty net goal for the Jackets in what would be a 4-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche.

Columbus has never been what one would call an “elite” scoring team, but this year’s squad is averaging 3.10 goals per game, second-best in franchise history (3.12 goals per game in 2018-2019).  No Blue Jacket has ever topped 300 goals with the franchise, and only two players have ever topped 200 goals (Rick Nash: 289; Cam Atkinson: 213).  The active leader among Columbus players in career goals with the franchise is Boone Jenner (127).  Jenner has been earnestly adding to his career total, leading the team in goals this season (six).  Jenner made a statement in 2015-2016 when he recorded 30 goals in 82 games, becoming at the time just the sixth player in Blue Jackets history to have at least one 30-goal season.  Since then, however, he has become a somewhat reliable secondary scorer, but he has not recorded as many as 20 goals in any of the five seasons since that 30-goal season.  Last season he finished with a career low eight goals in 41 games, but he missed 15 games at the end of the regular season to a broken finger.  Jenner has six goals in ten games so far this season.  No player in the league so far this season has more goals with only one assist.  He and Minnesota’s Ryan Hartman are 6-1-7.  Jenner is 1-6-7, minus-7, in 26 career games against Washington.

Seth Jones is gone, manning the blue line for the Chicago Blackhawks.  And that means Zack Werenski is the player who will bear the broadest responsibility for the Blue Jackets’ defense.  Now in his sixth season in Columbus, Werenski is already seventh all-time in games played in team history (345) and culd pass Jones (381) for fifth place on that list this season.  He is the all-time leader in goals scored by a Columbus defenseman, and by a wide margin (67, to 50 for Jones).  He is third in assists (128) and second in points (195).  Only Jones has more game-winning goals (12) and overtime goals (eight) than Werenski (ten and five).  And this season he is getting ample opportunity to climb those lists.  He lead the team’s defensemen in points (six), power play points (two, the only two power play points for Columbus defensemen), shots (35, almost three times as many as Jake Bean (13)), total ice time per game (26:11, fifth in the league), power play ice time per game (3:27), and he is third in shorthanded ice time per game (2:34).  On the other hand, he has a minus-2 goal differential at even strength (seventh of nine defensemen to dress for Columbus this season), and he has been on ice for ten goals against at evens, most on the team, which might not be that surprising given the ice time he consumes.  Werenski is 2-3-5, minus-1, in 14 career games against the Capitals.

As far as goaltending goes for the Blue Jackets, it is a matter night and day.  On the dark side of night there is Joonas Korpisalo, who is 2-2-0, 343, .905, in four appearances. On the bright side of day there is Elvis Merzlikins, who is 5-1-0, 1.98 (sixth in the league; minimum: 250 minutes), .940 (fourth in the league).  Only once in six appearances to date has he had a save percentage under .940.  That, unsurprisingly, came in his only loss, a 4-0 decision at the hands of the New York Rangers in which he stopped only 33 of 37 shots (.892).  It is the only instance so far this season that he allowed more than two goals.  Now in his third season after having been the seventh goaltender taken in the 2014 Entry Draft, he is having a career year.  But he is distinctly a “home” goalie.  In his three years to date he is 18-6-5, 1.97, .938, with six shutouts at home, but only 8-16-8, 2.96, .907, with one shutout on the road.  Merzlikins has never faced the Capitals.

1.  Columbus has allowed only 17 goals at 5-on-5, tied with Vancouver and the New York Islanders for  fourth-fewest in the league.

2.  Only Vancouver has scored fewer first period goals (five) than the Blue Jackets (six, tied with Tampa Bay and Arizona).

3.  Columbus is 31^st among 32 teams in credited hits per 60 minutes (15.14); only Buffalo has fewer (14.53).

4. Only the new York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins have fewer penalty minutes (73 and 72, respectively) than the Blue Jackets (86, tied with Buffalo).

5.  Columbus has scored first only three times in ten games, winning each of them.

1.  The Caps are consistent in goal differential by period – plus-5 in the first period (12-7), plus-5 in the second period (17-12), and plus-4 in the third period (13-9).  There remains that pesky minus-4 in overtime.

2.  Washington is second in the league in goals scored at 5-on-5 (30), trailing only Florida (30).

3.  The Caps have not won a game when trailing after a period this season, 0-0-2 when trailing after one period, 0-2-1 when trailing after two periods.

4.  The Capitals have been outshot in games only twice in 12 games and have a 1-0-1 record in those games.

5.  The Caps are still the only team in the league that has not taken a major penalty this season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Cole Sillinger

November has been kind to Cole Sillinger. Yes, the Blue Jackets have played only twice so far this month, but Sillinger is 3-1-4, his three goals and four points, leading the team in both categories, and one of the goals a game-winner, that coming in s 4-2 win over Colorado last Saturday.  Sillinger was taken 12^th overall in last July’s entry draft, and he is one of only three skaters of this draft class to have dressed for an NHL game this season, leading the trio with ten games played.  He might be the goal scorer the Blue Jackets have lacked, based on his amateur hockey numbers.  In 52 games with Medicine Hat in the WHL, he was 22-33-55, and last season with Sioux Falls in the USHL he was 24-22-46 in 31 games.  His four goals to date ranks fourth in this year’s rookie class, and his six points are tied for seventh.  Sillinger has not faced the Caps yet in his career.

Washington: Martin Fehervary

There is no major award for top rookie defenseman, but if there was, Martin Fehervary might be a finalist, based on his early numbers.  He is tied for sixth in points by a rookie defenseman (two), tied for 12^th in plus-minus rating (even), tied for fifth in shots on goal (12), first in credited hits (33), tied for second in blocked shots (22), tied for eighth in takeaways (two), third in on-ice even strength goals for (nine), seventh in overall ice time per game (18:34), and third in shorthanded ice time per game (1:49).  He has shown no butterflies skating with John Carlson on the top defensive pairing, although of some concern is his 0-0-0, minus-5 rating in his last six games while averaging 18:05 in ice time per game after going 1-1-2, plus-5, averaging 19:02 in ice time over his first six games this season.  Of note, the Caps are 4-0-1 when he skated at least 19:11 in ice time, 2-2-3 when he skated less time.  Fehervary has never face Columbus.

In the end… 

This is the first test of the season for the Caps skating the second game of a back-to-back.  It will be a test of focus and endurance after facing a speedy Detroit team on Thursday night.  Simplifying the game – the usual strategy for teams on the road – could be especially important.  Columbus is not the kind of team that gets into many high scoring, end-to-end matchups, so this opponent might make the Caps’ job of keeping things simple just a bit easier. 

Capitals 3 – Blue Jackets 2