The last part of the comparison of last year’s first half to this year’s focuses on the goaltenders. It is a position that closely resembles that of pitchers in baseball or quarterbacks in football. They get a lot of the focus and probably too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they don’t. But from first half to first half, how did the years compare for Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer?
The Tandem
(click on image for a larger version)
The Caps have been lucky in an important respect the last two years. Many people thought the Holtby/Grubauer tandem was the best pair in the NHL last season, but of particular benefit to the club is that they were a tandem, the only goaltenders the Caps employed last season and this. This is, so far, the third season in a row in which the Caps have employed two, and only two goaltenders, Holtby and Grubauer. These three seasons are the only ones in the post-2004-2005 lockout era for the Caps when they used just two goalies. The last time the Caps used just two goalies in a season before this pair was in 1999-2000 when Olaf Kolzig and Craig Billington split the duties.
As a pair, the two have combined for a goals against average
and a save percentage that, frankly, is quite a fall-off from last season, the
combined goals against average rising from 1.91 to 2.68 and the save percentage
dropping from .931 to .915. Not that
these numbers are bad. If they were
ranked among the rest of the goaltenders in the league with at least 500
minutes, they would be almost smack in the middle, the GAA ranking 29th
and the save percentage ranking 28th.
As one might expect, the pair has been victimized for
bunches of goals more often this year over last. So far this season, the pair has allowed
three or more goals in a game 20 times versus 12 at this point last
season. Further, the goaltending tandem
did not allow more than four goals in any game in the first half last
season. So far this season they have
done so four times in 41 games with a high of eight (Grubauer in an 8-2 loss to
the Philadelphia Flyers on October 14th). Conversely, the pair allowed one or no goals
15 times in the first 41 games last season with six shutouts. However, so far this season that number is 11
with one shutout, and the Caps lost that game (1-0 to the New York Rangers in a
Gimmick on December 27th).
Not that it has been their entire fault (this is the “too
much blame” area). As a pair, Holtby and
Grubauer have faced almost 100 more shots at even strength this year over last
(1,049 versus 958). Yes, the goals
allowed at evens are up (from 57 to 79), but it is still a heavier workload with
which they must deal that dropped the ES save percentage from .941 last season
to .925 this season. The problem is more
evident when the Caps are shorthanded.
The save percentage of the pair is almost unchanged from last season
(from .873 to .875), but they have faced more than a third more shots on
opponents’ power plays (from 145 last season to 196 this year), causing the
goals to go up by a third (from 21 to 28).
But what might be most noteworthy is just how each
goaltender has seen his numbers move in similar directions.
Number One
If there are two words to reflect the first half for number
one goaltender Braden Holtby this season, they would be “shots matter.” Holtby has logged more than 160 fewer minutes
in the first half over last season’s first half (from 1954 minutes to 1793),
but he has faced almost 60 more shots (from 906 to 962). On a per-60 minutes basis it is the
difference between facing 27.8 shots per 60 minutes last season and 32.2 this
season.
The odd part of that shot increase is that it has not been as
much a product of even strength increases as it is what he has faced when the
Caps are shorthanded. He has faced only
six more shots at evens (779 versus 773).
However, he has faced 164 shots from opponents’ power plays versus 116
at a comparable point last season, an increase of more than 40 percent. Holtby’s save percentage when the Caps are
shorthanded is actually better than last year (.884 versus .853) but he has
allowed two more goals (19 versus 17).
Meanwhile, his even strength save percentage has dropped quite a bit,
from .943 to .926.
Facing so many shots on a night-to-night basis makes it
difficult to keep opponents off the board entirely, and this is reflected in
Holtby’s shutout numbers. At this point
last season he had five clean sheets on his record. This season so far, none.
One area in which Holtby has improved a lot, and arguably
entire to his credit and his coaches, is in the Gimmick. Through the first half last season he allowed
nine goals on 14 shots, a .357 save percentage, on his way to losing all four
of his trick shot decisions. This season
he stopped eight of nine shots in the first half (.889) and won all three
decisions on his record.
The Number One in Waiting
One of the subplots to this season is the question of
whether Philipp Grubauer will finally become a number one goaltender after this
season. Somewhere else. Grubauer is a restricted free agent with
arbitration eligibility after this season.
In essence, this season is an audition with the possibility that he will
be moved sometime between now and the NHL Draft next summer.
So how has that audition gone? It isn’t a clear, cut and dried verdict. Grubauer struggled to open the season, going
0-2-1, 4.67, .850 in his first four appearances. But since then, he has a goals against average
of 1.86 and a save percentage of .936 with one shutout in nine appearances. He is, once more, perhaps the best backup in
the league. Not that he has much to show
for it in wins and losses. In those nine
appearances he is just 2-3-2.
Overall, comparing his first half over first half, this year
and last, his numbers track with Holtby’s overall. His goals against average is up by a similar
margin (from 1.94 to 2.70), and his save percentage has dropped in similar
fashion (form .929 to .909). Unlike
Holtby, though, it is not his even strength save percentage that has suffered
as much (from .930 to .922) as it is his save percentage defending opponents’
power plays (from .920 to .850). But he,
too, is facing more rubber, just as is Holtby, though not to the same
degree. His shots faced per 60 minutes
has risen from 27.2 in the first half last season to 29.8 so far this season.
If Grubauer has settled into a more consistently productive role,
as was his performance last season, he will no doubt get attention from teams
seeking to upgrade their goaltending.
But more relevant for Caps fans, it would mean no drop off when Braden
Holtby gets a break, and that can’t be bad news for Caps fans.
In the end…
If you had a sliding scale that at one end said “goalie
performance” and at the other said “skater performance” and sought to place the
marker in an appropriate place to reflect the drop in goaltending performance
numbers, it would not lie at either end.
Nor would it be precisely in the middle, if we were determining an
appropriate resting point. The Caps have
not been able to keep opponents at bay when it comes to denying shots on
goal. Both goaltenders have faced
increased volumes of shots on a per-60 minutes basis, and both goaltenders have
seen a higher goals against average and a lower save percentage, both in
similar degrees, from last year’s first half.
Not that the goaltending has been as consistently sharp as last season,
but we would set that marker on the scale closer to the skater end than the
goaltender end. But was we noted, the
goalie gets perhaps too much credit for things going well and too much blame for
those times when things don’t go so well.
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