Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Erskine

John Erskine

“Success, remember is the reward of toil.”

-- Sophocles

When the 2013 season started, the Washington Capitals had a depth chart for defensemen that might have looked like this…

• Mike Green
• Karl Alzner
• John Carlson
• Roman Hamrlik
• Dmitry Orlov
• Jack Hillen

One of the odd men out in that scenario was John Erskine, who between assorted injuries (shoulder, lower body) and healthy scratches was coming off a 2011-2012 season in which he played in only 28 games.

Erskine’s 2013 season was not much different from his 2011-2012 season with respect to the injury bug – he missed 12 games in March due to an upper-body injury – and he missed another three games in February for elbowing Wayne Simmonds of the Philadelphia Flyers.  But he did dress for 30 games, and by the end of the season, with Hamrlik waived and off to the New York Rangers, Orlov injured and trying to rehabilitate his game with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, and Hillen injured in the first game of the season and trying to work his way back into the lineup after missing 25 games, Erskine found himself by year’s end on the second defensive pairing with John Carlson.

For Erskine it was a productive year, in the technical sense of the term.  While his 0.10 goals-per-game was modest, it was the best such mark he posted over an 11-year career.  His 0.20 points-per-game was his best since posting a 0.24 points-per-game mark in in first year with the Capitals in 2006-2007.  He was plus-10 over 30 games, a plus-27 pace over 82 games, also a career best.  His 32 shots on goal in 30 games was the only season in his career in which he averaged more than a shot per game. 

The problem for Erskine was, as it has been in so many of his seasons with the Capital, injuries.  In seven years with the Caps, Erskine has missed 121 games to injury or illness (tsn.ca), including the 12 he missed in the 2013 season due to an upper body injury. 

Although the games played did not change much for Erskine this season – 30 this year, 28 last season – the ice time did.  Befitting his partnership with John Carlson on the second defensive pairing (78 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time was spent with Carlson), Erskine’s total ice time jumped from 12:05 per game to 18:27, and his even strength ice time jumped from 11:33 per game to 16:13.  It amounted to more than one extra shift per period per game (17.5 shifts per game in 2011-2012 to 21.9 shifts per game in 2013).

The thing is with that pairing is that Erskine’s influence – or at least his presence – had a salutary effect on Carlson.  When on ice together, Carlson’s 5-on-5 goals for were better (0.939 GF/20 vs. 0.824 GF/20 when apart), the goals against were better (0.692 GA/20 vs. 0.733 when apart, numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  There was not a lot of ice time with these players spent apart, but in terms of even strength outcomes, Erskine did not appear to be a liability.  Of course, that also might be tempered by the fact that the top four forwards with whom Erskine shared 5-on-5 ice time ice time were, in order: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, and Nicklas Backstrom.

Odd Erskine Stat… John Erskine scored three goals for the Caps this season, all of which came at Verizon Center, and all of which came in noteworthy games.  His first of the season put the Caps ahead to stay in what would become Adam Oates’ first win as head coach, a 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on January 27^th.  His second goal came on February 26^th in a 3-0 win over the Carolina Hurricanes, which spoiled Alexander Semin’s first game in Washington since leaving the club in free agency after the 2011-2012 season.  His third goal came on March 7^th in a 7-1 win against the Florida Panthers.  His goal, the first of the contest, set in motion a four-goal barrage in 6:12, the second-fastest four-goal start in team history.

Game to Remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  John Erskine was the emergency goaltender of sorts on the evening on which the Capitals clinched the Southeast Division title.  Just one minute after Matt Hendricks scored for the Caps to post the home team to a 1-0 lead, Erskine dove through the crease to block a Bryan Little shot that was targeted to the back of an empty net.  Then, with the clock ticking toward 6:00 remaining in the first period, it was Erskine again, sweeping the puck off the goal line after a deflection of a shot by Aaron Gagnon (who Erskine was tying up in the low slot) hit goaltender Braden Holtby and climbed over his shoulder to fall into the crease.  Erskine added an assist on the goal that would give the Caps the lead for good, and as if to punctuate his performance, took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty with 22 seconds left in the 5-3 win.

Game to Forget… February 12^th vs. Florida.  Florida proved a pesky adversary on this night.  The Caps scored first, but Florida took leads on three separate occasions, taking a 5-3 lead on goals straddling the second intermission, both of which Erskine was on ice for, making it a total three such on-ice goals for Erskine in the game.  He added a penalty for good measure.  It was the only game all season in which Erskine finished as bad as minus-2.

Post season… Live by the second pairing, die by the second pairing.  Erskine tied with John Carlson – his second pairing defensive partner – for the most goals scored against the Caps while on ice (eight) in the seven-game loss to the New York Rangers.  He also did not finish any of the seven games against the New York Rangers in plus territory (minus-4 overall).  He is not expected to provide anything more than serendipitous offense, but he did not record a shot on goal in any of the last three games of the series and was last among Caps defensemen in that regard overall (six shots on goal for the series).

In the end…

John Erskine almost never lacks for effort, but one still has the feeling that he would be a much better third-pair defenseman than a solution as a second-pair defenseman with John Carlson.  It was the second pair that was exploited by the New York Rangers in the playoffs, denting it for half of the goals the Rangers scored in the series.  When Erskine was getting significant minutes against the Southeast Division, he was fine – 2-2-4, plus-10 in 12 games.  But in 25 games outside the division (including playoffs), he was 1-2-3, minus-4.  In a sense Erskine is the canary in the coal mine, the signal of questionable blue line depth.  Circumstance led to Erskine taking second pair minutes this season – Roman Hamrlik not performing as expected, then waived; Dmitry Orlov and Jack Hillen suffering injuries, the inability of Jeff Schultz to dent the lineup.  That does not mean Erskine is a solution at that position.  Hard worker though he is, there are better ways to employ his effort.

Grade: B-

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

“Life is about growth. People are not perfect when they're 21 years old.”

-- Bill Walton

John Carlson struggled mightily in the last half of the 2011-2012 season.  He was 4-8-12, minus-20, over his last 52 games.  It was hardly the expected result of a promising former first-round draft pick who showed so much promise over his first 100 games.  But when he turned things around with a solid playoff performance in 2012, much was expected of Carlson this season.

Did he deliver?  Well, yes and no.  The start of his season looked a little too much like the start of last season.  It seemed as if every time that an opponent scored a goal against the Caps, Carlson had a good look at it.  He was on ice for 41 of the 82 goals scored against Washington over the Caps’ first 27 games. 

That ratio improved a lot for Carlson down the stretch.  He was on ice for only 20 of the 48 goals scored against Washington over the Caps’ last 21 games.

Carlson’s uncertain start and stronger finish not only looks a lot like last year’s performance, it looks a bit like that of his erstwhile partner, Karl Alzner.  Carlson spent more time on ice at 5-on-5 with three defensemen other than Alzner (79:38), including Jeff Schultz (86:06), who played in only 26 games this season.  Carlson spent 46 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time with John Erskine on what would be the Caps second defensive pairing by year end. 

Overall (and that is an important word here), Carlson had a better regular season this season than last.  His goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 were up (0.173 to 0.445). His assists/60 minutes at 5-on-5 were up (0.564 to 0.667).  His shots were up (4.945 to 5.410), individual Fenwick (6.853 to 7.410), and individual Corsi (from 10.193 to 10.300, all numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

These numbers are not unexpected, though, since he was often matched with superior offensive talent.  Again, from stats.hockeyanalysis.com, the offensive quality of teammates was improved (from 0.5 to 12.9 on this particular measure, “HARO/QOT,” again from stats.hockeyanalysis.com), while the defensive quality of his competition was inferior (dropped from -11.2 to -24.8 on the “HARD/QOC” measure).  And this is not a surprise, either, when you understand that the forwards with whom Carlson was matched most often at 5-on-5 in ice time were, in order, Alex Ovechkin, Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom, and Troy Brouwer, all of whom Carlson spent more than five minutes per game of 5-on-5 time skating with this season.

Odd Carlson Stat… This might become its own feature, but there is the matter of that “Southeast Division” effect happening here.  Carlson was 3-9-12, plus-19 against the other Southeast Division teams in 18 games, 3-7-10, minus-8, in 30 games against everyone else.  And for your bonus stat, Carlson scored three goals against the Southeast, all in wins, and scored three goals outside the division, all in losses.

Game to Remember… April 23^rd vs. Winnipeg.  In Game 46 of the regular season the Caps had a chance to clinch the Southeast Division and a three-seed in the playoffs with a win over the Winnipeg Jets.  The Caps had already blown a two-goal lead and were in jeopardy of blowing a one-goal lead in the third period against the visiting Jets.  It was John Carlson on the ice in the last minute (with John Erskine) to protect that one-goal margin, and the choice worked for the Caps when Alex Ovechkin scored an empty-net goal to seal a 5-3 division-clinching win.  Carlson had only one shot on the evening (no points), but he was a plus-3 in more than 20 minutes of ice time.

Game to Forget… January 24^th through January 27^th.  This is, as you might guess, a multi-game horror show for Carlson.  The Caps had a stretch of three games in four nights against Montreal, New Jersey, and Buffalo.  From the 3:47 mark of the second period in the first game of this set, against Montreal, to the 9:34 mark of the first period of the last game in the set, against Buffalo, Carlson was on ice for all eight goals scored against the Caps.  The Caps lost to the Canadiens (4-1), lost to the Devils in overtime (3-2), and allowed the first goal to the Sabres (the eighth in the sequence for Carlson) in what would be a 3-2 Capitals comeback win.

Post-season…  The second defensive pair for the Capitals had a tough series against the Rangers.  It was a return to the struggles that Carlson experienced early in the regular season in the past two years.  He (and partner John Erskine) was on ice for eight of the 16 goals scored by the Rangers in the series, seven of those goals coming in losses, four of them in the third periods of games.  And Carlson was not making it up in the offensive end.  He had one point in the series, an assist on the first goal in a 4-3 Game 3 loss.

In the end…

John Carlson is still waiting to put that whole season together.  He had a decent regular season, overall, even with the consistency issues early on.  His post-season was, to put it mildly, disappointing.  That is the opposite from the 2011-2012 season in which he had a disappointing regular season (itself surprising, given his experience in juniors with Dale Hunter), followed by a solid post-season.  One could make the argument that he has not improved much (or at least as much as folks might have hoped) since his rookie season in which he finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting as top rookie, and the highest vote-getter among defensemen.

The lingering question from this season, and the playoffs in particular, is whether Carlson’s inconsistency was a product of a lack of development on his part or being paired primarily with a defenseman who might be better suited to a third pair.  The second pair was the one exploited by the Rangers in their playoff series (no defenseman was on ice for more 5-on-5 goals scored against than John Erskine: 7 of the 13 scored by the Rangers).

When Carlson was a 21-year old rookie, he was not perfect.  He plays what is according to many the hardest position to master in hockey.  But as a 21-year old rookie he was thought of as the best of his rookie defenseman class (according to Calder Trophy voting).  That was not a great Calder class for defensemen (five of the 17 players receiving Calder votes in that class were defensemen, none ranked higher than fifth in final voting), but Carlson added it to an impressive early-career resume that included the game-winning goal in the 2010 world juniors championship, a fine 2009-2010 season with the Hershey Bears in which the Bears won the Calder Cup, and then a respectable showing in the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs in which he was 1-3-4, plus-6, in a disappointing seven-game loss to Montreal  in the first round.

That was the early-career resume of a player who could be a top-pair defenseman.  Some folks might have been of the view that with that progress he could make Mike Green expendable (or at least a luxury the Caps could afford to let go with his high salary cap hit).  That has not yet come to pass.  For Carlson’s own game, it is now a matter of growth, to become the reliable, consistent two-way defenseman fans saw in the making when he came into the league.

Grade: B-

Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

“The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

It does not seem all that long ago that Karl Alzner was making his debut in the National Hockey League with the Washington Capitals, getting 30 games of experience in the 2008-2009 season.  But with 215 games of regular season games under his belt coming into the 2013 season, the expectations for Alzner were not the modest ones of a prospect.  He would not – and likely will never – put up big high-end numbers as a defenseman.  Four goals and 39 points in those 215 games are not the numbers of an offensive defenseman.

No, the expectation for Alzner was for that of a shutdown defenseman.  A player who could be matched against an opponent’s top line and who would reliably – or at least more often than not – be the key to keeping that line in check.  After all, what we said at this time last year suggested Alzner would be that shutdown defenseman…

“Of Capitals defensemen playing in at least 30 games this season he faced the stiffest competition at 5-on-5 (behindthenet.ca). He had the highest Corsi value relative to quality of competition. Despite facing that high quality of competition, he had the second best on-ice save percentage against, and he had the second-highest “PDO” at 5-on-5 (shooting percentage plus save percentage). This simple measure is a transparent expression of efficiency. When factoring in the quality of competition faced by Alzner, he stood at the top of the Capitals blueline corps in terms of efficiency this season.”

This season, things were a bit different, and not necessarily in a good way.  At 5-on-5 Alzner’s Corsi relative to competition dropped from 1.403 to 0.479.  His PDO dropped from 1017 to 992.  His goals-against/on ice per 60 minutes rose from 2.20 to 2.55.  And this with more frequency of offensive zone starts.  As a “defensive” defenseman, Alzner is not going to get the majority of his zone starts in the offensive end, but he did record 46.7 percent of his zone starts in that end compared to 41.6 percent in 2011-2012 (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

With an abbreviated season, one wonders whether this fact had effects on any player, Alzner included.  The “tens” paint an odd picture in that regard.  Like the rest of the club, Alzner got off to a poor start.  He did not have a point and was a minus-3 after those first ten games, during which the Caps were 2-7-1.  Alzner was on ice for 17 of the 36 goals scored against the Caps in those ten games, almost a third of the goals against for which he was on ice for the season (55).

There is a push-pull question here.  Hockey can be at times a “circumstantial” sport.  A player – Alzner in this case – might be present for an event, such as a goal scored against, but would not necessarily be the proximate cause of that even taking place.  Was Alzner a factor in poor performance or a victim of circumstance?  Still, Alzner has a role to play on this team, and having been on ice for goals in nine of the first ten games of the season, it did not appear as if that role was being filled as well as it could be, even if he was not the only player of whom that could be said.

Then, as if a light went on, Alzner was 1-2-3, plus-4 over his next 20 games, during which the Caps went 11-9-0, righting a foundering ship.  But then, Alzner’s game regressed, almost as if fatigue was a factor.  In his last 17 games he was 1-1-1, minus-9, while the team was going 13-2-2.  Alzner was on ice for half of the goals scored against the Caps in those 17 games (21 of 42).

From a distance, Alzner’s season looked as if it broke into three pieces – a warm-up stretch in which he struggled, as if the late season start left him at the starting gate; a middle stretch in which he was on top of his game; then a late group of games in which he struggled again.

Odd Alzner Fact… Think there might have been a “Southeast Division” effect in his results?  Against the weak sisters of the Southeast, Alzner was 1-2-3, plus-7, in 18 games.  Against everyone else he was 0-2-2, minus-13, in 30 games.

Game to Remember… April 7^th vs. Tampa Bay.  On a night when the story line was Alex Ovechkin climbing into a tie for the league goal-scoring lead (he had two goals), Alzner was his typical steady self.  In 25:34 of ice time he was not on ice for either of the goals the Lightning scored in the 4-2 Caps win.  And over an 11:40 stretch of the third period with the Caps clinging to a one-goal lead, Alzner logged 5:58 in ice time over five shifts, his last shift – 1:37 in length – ending when Ovechkin scored an empty net goal to seal the win.

Game to Forget… April 13^th vs. Tampa Bay.  Less than a week after his memorable game, Alzner was part of a team breakdown in the third period that saw the Caps lose a 5-1 lead when the Lightning scored four goals in the last 21:13 of regulation.  Alzner was on ice for two of the three goals the Lightning scored in the third period of that contest, the last coming with just 2:35 left in regulation.  He finished that game with a season-worst minus-3.  It was the first time he finished that low in minus territory since his rookie season, when he finished minus-3 in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to the New York Rangers on February 11, 2009.

Post-Season… Alzner was on ice for only two of the 16 goals scored by the Rangers, the fewest of any Capital defenseman while skating the second most minutes (129:00) of any Cap defenseman at 5-on-5 (Mike Green: 147:40).  The only goal on which Alzner could bear the slightest fault was Carl Hagelin’s goal to give the Rangers a 2-0 lead in the Rangers’ 4-3 win in Game 4.  In that instance, Alzner was late and not very aggressive at the Capitals’ blue line in trying to interrupt the pass from Derick Brassard to Hagelin that led to the goal.  Otherwise, Alzner had an impressive post-season.

In the end…

Like so many of the Capitals, this was a learning year for Alzner.  His lesson came in accommodating a new partner.  Last season, Alzner played 65 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes with John Carlson.  In 2010-2011 it was 79 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes spent with Carlson.  This season, it was less than 11 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  Alzner’s primary partner at 5-on-5 this season was Mike Green, with whom he spent 59 percent of his 5-on-5 time.  He also spent substantial amounts of time with Tomas Kundratek (18 percent) and Steve Oleksy (12 percent).

The way Alzner’s time was parceled among other defensemen also point to the manner in which the club depends on him to be that shutdown defenseman, or at least the reliable partner.  His principal partners were one who is primarily an offensive defenseman (Green) and two youngsters who might have needed a chaperone from time to time (Kundratek, Oleksy).

In that context it is reasonable to expect Alzner’s 48-game results would experience some ups and downs, not entirely of his doing.  One might think of this as a transition year for Alzner, from prospect or young, up-and-coming defenseman, to that of the cornerstone defender the team is going to depend on over the next few years.  It will make things interesting in terms of his next contract, Alzner being a restricted free agent.  But for now, this season, Alzner had a solid, if not great season.

Grade: B

photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: What is Russian for "Pinata?"

We would like to take you through another scribble that compares two individuals.  Both are hockey players, both come from the same part of the world, both are about the same age, the teams of each have been in the playoffs the past four years.  They even have similar individual post-season statistics:

• Player 1: 11-21-32, even, 27 PIMs. 5 PPG, 2 GWG
• Player 2: 16-15-31, even, 22 PIMs, 5 PPG, 2 GWG

Their teams have endured similar fates:

• Player 1: 16-17 (games won/lost), 2-3 (series won/lost)
• Player 2: 17-20 (games won/lost), 2-4 (series won/lost)

But Player 2 seems to invite a very different response to his individual performance than that of Player 1.  Some of the descriptions* of Player 2 include:

“...HIS history, HIS history is the same history. Whether we’re talking about Olympic competition or international competition, same thing, where HE comes up so short and then just offers excuse after excuse afterward.”

“...The greatest player in hockey had zero points in the final five games of this series. ZERO points… your conspiracy theory is to blame-deflect, it’s to distract attention from the most pertinent fact of this series: the greatest player came up small. He froze up on the ice.”

“...When someone starts whining about the officiating when he’s had a tough series without production and tries to point the finger away from himself, [it] just doesn’t sit well with hockey guys.”

“HE”…”the greatest player in hockey ( a line delivered with two scoops of sarcasm)”…the “whiner”… Caps fans have probably figured out that player as Alex Ovechkin.  He is “Player 2,” above.  But the player to whom he is compared here isn’t Sidney Crosby.  The narrative that is now set in concrete is that Crosby is a better player, a better leader, more accomplished in wins and losses on bigger stages, the very personification of “hockey virtues” in ways that Ovechkin is not.  No, the player to whom Ovechkin is compared here is another Pittsburgh Penguin, Evgeni Malkin, the one who “lives up to lofty standards” (ok, that’s a hometeam sentiment), and his “patience makes a difference” (ok, another home team sentiment).  The national media…not a peep.

It makes you think this isn’t even a Russian matter anymore (if it ever was).  This is a case of the Very Serious People in sports journalism needing to demonstrate their gravitas by engaging in something bordering on disgust over what it is that Alex Ovechkin does or says, on the ice or off.  And the jumping on with both feet is not contained to the usual suspects in the hockey media or sports talk television.  Even those who do have that gravitas hard earned from years of thoughtful commentary join in (in fairness, Tom Boswell spares no one, not even those of us who count themselves as fans of the Caps, and I find myself agreeing with a lot he said).  

Ovechkin did not help himself with unfortunate comments about the officiating in the series against the New York Rangers that concluded on Monday.  Raising the notion of some dark conspiracy to either extend that series or achieve a result favoring the Rangers is something no player should engage in, whether he believes it or not.  But that is at least as likely a reflection of bitterness over a tough loss as it might be one of the player’s character.

And we get that what passes for sports journalism on television, radio, or the Internet in 2013 is more cage match than reporting or informed opinion.  If you aren’t shouting or displaying attitude, no one is going to be listening or clicking.

Perhaps this is what goes with the territory of being a star.  Ovechkin isn’t the only player in professional sports who has incurred the wrath of the pundit class in sport journalism.  But in hockey, he seems to have become a magnet for broadsides of this nature.  It is hard to recall anyone at his level in North American sport upon whom so much invective has been heaped when still in his prime.

What makes this confounding is that he should be the target of this when hockey is, by its nature, as dependent on team effort as any team sport.  A star plays perhaps 20 minutes out of 60 a night and performs with four other skaters when he is on the ice, all of whom are ingredients to the star’s success.  Hockey acknowledges this fact with it prominent use of assists – primary and secondary – to award points.

And it is not as if he is the only “star” to have underperformed in the playoffs.  Just looking at the Hart Trophy winners since Ovechkin last won the trophy in 2009, Henrik Sedin is 2-6-8 in his last nine playoff games covering two series, both of which the Vancouver Canucks lost.  Corey Perry is 2-8-10 in his last 13 playoff games over two series, both of which the Anaheim Ducks lost.  And there is Malkin, who is having a fine 2013 post season (3-10-13 in seven games), but his Penguin teams still have underperformed relative to the often cited “expectations.” 

Even Sidney Crosby, who is 12-24-36 in his last 25 playoff games, captained a team that lost to lower-seeded teams in two series and was pushed to seven games by a spunky, but heavily overmatched (on paper) New York Islander team in the first round of this season’s playoffs.  There is no talk of Crosby being all about numbers in his last three playoff appearances, despite his team not performing appreciably better than Ovechkin’s.  On the other hand, when it was Ovechkin who had the numbers (folks might forget that he was 25-25-50 in his first 37 career playoff games), it was about his team (and by extension him) losing.

Those who are inclined to see the worst in Ovechkin will consider this an “apology” for Ovechkin’s performance and behavior.  You are entitled to that opinion.  The fact is, Ovechkin did underperform, and his comments were impolitic and immature at the very least (although kudos to Capitals general manager George McPhee for having his player’s back).  He might, as teammate Mike Ribeiro put it, “still [be] a young player who has a lot to learn about the game and how to play it.”  And the clock is ticking – loudly – on his ever winning a championship.  But the unvarnished glee, the posed indignation, the “I can top that” tirades used to denigrate his play or impugn his character lack any sense of proportion. 

Ovechkin’s teams have a history of underperforming in the post-season, and as the star he is going to be the lightning rod for that.  It might not be fair, but it is life.  However, it also seems to be his lot in life that the teams on which he plays are not deep enough, talented enough, or even lucky enough to beat or surpass in terms of achievement those of Crosby (whose Penguins teams were and are more talented and deeper than the Caps, and whose 2010 Canadian Olympic team that bested Ovechkin's Russian Olympic team was one of the most loaded collections of talent since the Olympics started permitting professionals to play).  In that respect, Ovechkin will get no quarter from his critics.  The only way he will silence them is to win.

* Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post compiled this greatest hits package on his “D.C. Sports Bog” at the Washington Post.

Washington Capitals: A Short Tale of Two Eras

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."

-- Charles Dickens, "A Tale of Two Cities"

Today's scribble has to do with history, a tale of two eras in Capitals history to be more precise.  Caps fans might not know this, but with the end of the 2013 season, the second of two 15-year eras came to a close.  They look a lot like one another...

The Age of Poile (1982-1983 through 1996-1997):

• 15 seasons
• 3 coaches
• 1,180 regular season games
• Win-loss-T/OTL record of 594-454-132
• 4,180 goals scored for, 3,719 goals scored against (per game: 3.54 - 3.15)
• 14 playoff appearances
• 8 first round playoff exits
• 5 second round playoff exits
• 1 conference final
• Playoff win-loss record (games): 52-64
• Playoff win-loss record (series): 7-14
• Playoff Game 7 Record: 1-4

The Age of McPhee (1997-1998 through 2012-2013):

• 15 seasons
• 6 coaches
• 1,196 regular season games
• Win-loss-T/OTL record of 575-458-163
• 3,416 goals scored, 3,396 goals against (per game: 2.86 - 2.84)
• 10 playoff appearances
• 6 first round exits
• 3 second round exits
• 1 Stanley Cup final
• Playoff win-loss record (games): 41-48 (correction: 44-52)
• Playoff win-loss record (series): 6-10
• Playoff Game 7 Record: 2-5

Thirty years of same.  It almost feels less like the era in which Dickens wrote, or even this one, and more like the Cretaceous period.  It makes one long for an asteroid to make an appearance.

(information obtained from hockeydb.com, Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Media Guide)

NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -- Game 7: Rangers 5 - Capitals 0

If you are going to run a team out of the building, make sure you push them past the exits.  If you don’t, you risk being in a world of hurt when the momentum fades.

And thus did it happen to the Washington Capitals as they fell to the New York Rangers, 5-0, in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals at Verizon Center on Monday night.  The 5-0 score was the worst defeat the Caps suffered in a playoff game since losing to Pittsburgh, 7-1, in Game 6 of the first round of the 2000 Stanley Cup playoffs.  It was the most lopsided Game 7 loss in team history.

It did not start that way.  The Caps owned the first 13 minutes of the game, outshooting the Rangers, 9-5, and out-attempting the visitors by a 22-12 margin.  And as if to punctuate the manner in which the Capitals were dominating play, Alex Ovechkin recorded five hits in those first 13 minutes, and the Caps enjoyed a 12-4 edge in faceoffs.

Then, the Rangers scored a goal.  It happened as it so often does, with not one, but two missed chances at the other end by the Caps just before the Rangers converted.  Mike Green broke behind Anton Stralman to collect a loose puck and skate in alone on goalie Henrik Lundqvist on a semi-breakaway.  Lundqvist stopped Green’s drive with his right pad.  Green slid into the end boards, but from his side he flicked the puck in front. Lundqvist got just enough of his stick on it to alter its direction before Tom Wilson could bury it on the follow up.  The Rangers broke back in numbers, Chris Kreider dropping the puck for Asham just inside the Caps’ blue line.  Asham stepped in and snapped a shot past Braden Holtby, and the well-crafted momentum the Caps built in the first 13 minutes was gone.

The Caps would never get it back.  In the next 47 minutes they would manage 47 shot attempts (26 on goal), but none would get past Lundqvist, while the Rangers rode the efforts of the lesser known lights on their roster – Taylor Pyatt, Michael Del Zotto, and Mats Zuccarello, with a goal by Ryan Callahan thrown in – to make the eagerly anticipated contest turn into a chamber of horrors for Holtby, the Caps, and their fans.  When it was finally over, the Rangers had a ticket to the second round, and the Capitals ended their season in the first round of the post-season for the 14^th time in 24 playoff appearances.

Other stuff...

-- Before tonight the Caps appeared in 11 Game 7’s in club history, and in eight of those instances the game ended in a one-goal decision.  In fact, the Caps had never played anything but one-goal decisions in Game 7’s against teams other than the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Until tonight.

-- Alex Ovechkin had a shot on goal at the 13:54 mark of the first period.  It would be his only shot on goal for the game.

-- Nicklas Backstrom did not record his first shot on goal until the 17:44 mark of the second period.  By that time, the Rangers had a 3-0 lead.

-- In one of the more bizarre turns of this game, Karl Alzner led the team in shots on goal with five.  It tied a career high (set on April 16^th against Toronto) and set a career post-season high.

-- Braden Holtby would end this series with consistency issues.  In four games he allowed one or no goals, and in three others he allowed four or more.  He allowed five on 27 shots tonight.

-- Much will be written in the days to come about the shortcomings of the top line in this game and this series, but the second line was brutal.  Mike Ribeiro, Eric Fehr, and Troy Brouwer combined for five shots on goal, but the killer was Ribeiro and Fehr being on ice for four of the five Rangers goals, and Brouwer being on for three.

-- Amazingly enough, the Caps were 21-for-32 on offensive zone draws (65.6 percent).  They could generate no offense off their good fortune, though.

-- Alex Ovechkin (13 hits) and Mike Ribeiro (5) combined for almost half the total number of hits for the team (39).  They combined for four shots on goal.  A hundred times out of a hundred, that’s the wrong order of those numbers.

-- Speaking of which, ten skaters had more hits than shots on goal.  They needed to make things tougher on Henrik Lundqvist than that.

-- There might have been one Cap who played past expectations in this one – Tom Wilson.  In nine minutes, two shots on goal (four attempts), three hits, and a takeaway.

-- Seven Rangers scored either their first point or their first goal of the series in this game (Kreider, Pyatt, Del Zotto, Eminger, Zuccarello, Dorsett, Callahan).  

In the end, it is too soon to render a verdict on this season.  We will do that in the days to come.  But this team lacked discipline in this game.  Not the discipline to avoid taking penalties, but the discipline to play hard, consistent, and relentlessly over 60 minutes.  Tonight they were the equivalent of a Roman candle -- a lot of light and noise for a short time, then…silence.  It was not the referees, it was not the back-to-back games, it was not even as much the Rangers.

It was themselves.

Capitals vs. Rangers: Seeing is Believing

Capitals vs. Rangers -- "tennnn-HUT!"

Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle.

When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost...and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now... hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for ESPN don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Ranger bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Rangers are the enemy. Wade into them. Spill their blood. Check them into the boards. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your linemate's face, you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let New York do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you what did you do in the great Stanley Cup playoffs, you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh...and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

That’s all.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 7: Rangers at Capitals

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Maybe this is how it was meant to be. For the third time in four playoff series spanning five seasons, the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers will play a seventh game in their rite of spring.  If you want to relive the ecstasy and the agony of the first two Game 7’s in this recent history, you can do so here and here.

The Caps have a long, sad history in Game 7’s of playoff series.  Overall they are 3-8 in 11 tries at this sort of thing, 2-6 on home ice.  The Caps are 1-1 against the Rangers, winning on home ice in 2009, losing in New York in 2012.  And frankly, there probably isn’t much to be gleaned from either of those games.  The 2009 game involved a very different set of characters, especially for the Rangers, and the 2012 game involved a very different sort of coach and style for the Caps than what they now have.

We are left more to ponder what it is about the Caps in Game 7’s that might be important.  The first thing to notice is that four of the last five Game 7’s, dating back to that 2009 win over the Rangers, have ended in 2-1 scores.  Let us leave out the outlier – the 6-2 loss to Pittsburgh in Game 7 of the 2009 Eastern Conference semifinals – and focus on those four games.

-- Scoring first has not been essential, but scoring early has been for the Caps.  In their two 2-1 wins they scored first period goals.  And even though in one of them (the 2009 game against the Rangers) they allowed the first goal, being tied or ahead at the first intermission is perhaps a different animal than being behind after 20 minutes, as they were in the two 2-1 losses. 

-- The Caps have not enjoyed much in terms of benefit of the doubt from officials in this series (14 power play opportunities, third fewest of all playoff teams).  Don’t expect this to change.  In the four 2-1 Game 7’s the Caps had a total of seven power play chances, only one in each of their last two Game 7’s.

-- The Caps are a combined 0-for-7 on the power play over those four Game 7’s, misfiring on all 11 shots they took. 

-- Conversely, the penalty kill was tested only sporadically over those four games, the Caps were 8-for-9.  That power play goal allowed was huge, though.  It gave the Montreal Canadiens the first goal and a lead they would not relinquish in a 2-1 win over the Caps in Game 7 of the 2010 Eastern quarters.

-- If history is a guide the Caps will not get a lot of chances.  They did throw 42 shots at Jaroslav Halak in the 2010 Game 7 against Montreal but other than that – 24 shots against New York in 2009 (two goals), 27 against Boston in Round 1 last spring (two goals), and 23 shots against the Rangers in the Eastern semis last spring (one goal).

-- In the four Game 7’s, the big guns for the Caps were silent.  Alex Ovechkin: 0-1-1; Mike Green: 0-1-1; Nicklas Backstrom: 0-1-1.  Of players who have appeared for the Caps in this series, only Matt Hendricks and Joel Ward have Game 7 goals in any of the four of these Game 7’s ending in 2-1 scores, both coming in Game 7 of last spring’s series win over Boston.

-- Shots against have not mattered for the Caps, although the shots do break down into two distinct parts.  The Caps held the Rangers to 15 shots in their Game 7 win in 2009 and the Canadiens to 16 in their Game 7 loss in 2010.  But in the game 7’s of 2012 – both of which featured Braden Holtby in goal for the Caps – Washington allowed Boston 32 shots in their first round Game 7 win and the Rangers 31 in their Game 7 loss in Round 2.  The question there was whether or not that was a product of a much more passive style employed by then head coach Dale Hunter.

In the end, what does it all mean?  For the Caps, it is the what was not there in those four tight Game 7’s that could spell the difference in this one.  We assume that it will be another tight game, of course, but whether it is one goal in the Caps favor or one on the wrong side of the decision could come down to these factors…

• Power Play… No power play goals in any of the four 2-1 decisions.  If they get one, it will be big.  Even in the context of this series, when a team gets a power play goal, they win.  Of course, that means…
• Power Play Opportunities… In the four 2-1 decisions those opportunities – for both sides – have been at a premium, only seven for the Caps, nine for their opponents.  In none of those games did either the Caps or their opponents get more than three opportunities.
• Taking a lead… In three of the four 2-1 decisions the Caps allowed the first goal and were 1-2 in those games.  The Caps had to go to overtime to do it, but in the one game in which they took – and held – a lead in the first period, they won.
• Big Guns… Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green – no goals scored by any of them in the four 2-1 decisions.  In this series the trio has four of the 12 goals scored by the Caps, but none since Game 3, and Ovechkin has not had a goal since Game 1.  This group has to be heard from in this game.
• Shots…The Caps did not get a lot of opportunities in the four Game 7’s chronicled here, but they have been able to get shots to the net in this series, averaging almost 32 a game through six games.  If they suddenly struggle in this regard, it will not look good for the home team.

But here is the one number that will hover over this game: zero.  The New York Rangers have never won a Game 7 on the road, going 0-5 in those games, including the 2-1 loss to the Caps in 2009.*  Except for the loss to the Caps in 2009, each of those losses was to the eventual Stanley Cup winner.  On Monday night, the streak will continue.

Capitals 2 – Rangers 1

*  If you’re wondering, the Rangers lost at Boston in 1939, 2-1, in three overtimes; they lost at Detroit in 1950, 4-3, in two overtimes; they lost in 1974 at Philadelphia, 4-3; they lost at Pittsburgh in 1992, 5-1; and they lost in Washington to the Caps in 2009.

NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -- Game 6: Rangers 1 - Capitals 0

There will be a Game 7.

The home team won for the sixth time in the Eastern Conference quarterfinal series between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers when the Rangers held off the Capitals, 1-0, at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon.

One was all the Rangers needed in this one, thanks to a 27-save effort by goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who earned his seventh career playoff shutout.  Derick Brassard scored the game’s only goal mid-way through the second period, when from his perch at the top of the offensive zone he let fly with a slap shot that might have hit two Capitals on its way to the net before bending down and under goalie Braden Holtby’s glove into the back of the net.  It might have avoided Jason Chimera out front, but it certainly seemed to hit defenseman Steve Oleksy’s arm on its way to the net. 

And so, the hockey gods smiled on the Rangers.  The Capitals could not solve Henrik Lundqvist on any of their 27 shots, and it set up a seventh game at Verizon Center on Monday night.

Other stuff…

-- The hockey gods were not the only ones smiling on the Rangers in this game.  The Rangers were not charged with any infractions until the teams had a full-on scrum at the conclusion of the game.  It was the first time that the Caps did not have a single power play in a playoff game since Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against Pittsburgh in 2009.

-- Meanwhile, the Rangers enjoyed five power plays over a 43 minute stretch from mid-way in the first period to mid-way in the third.  In three games in New York, the Rangers had 15 power plays to the Caps’ five.

-- And for those of you wondering... Rule 52.1 states: "Slew-footing is the act of a player using his leg or foot to knock or kick an opponent’s feet from under him, or pushes an opponent’s upper body backward with an arm or elbow, and at the same time with a forward motion of his leg, knocks or kicks the opponent’s feet from under him, causing him to fall violently to the ice."

...Having done it poorly (Dorsett was the one who tumbled to the ice) makes no difference.  Coming as it did near the boards, it was a dangerous play. 

-- Alex Ovechkin had picked the wrong time to go cold.  This was his fourth straight game without a point, his longest streak of the season and his longest since going four games without a point from November 12 through November 19^th in the 2011-2012 season.

-- And there is a difference between “cold” and “playing poorly” (not that the usual talking heads will acknowledge it).  Twelve shot attempts, five on goal, three hits, two blocked shots.  If there was a surprising number in there, it was 19:03 – his time on ice.  But then again, that’s what having no power plays will do.  Only Mike Green had more time on ice in this game (23:40, like Ovechkin all at even-strength).

-- If you are wondering, the Caps have gone into a Game 7 five times in team history having lost Game 6.  They have one win in those instances, that one coming last year in the Eastern Conference quarterfinal series against Boston.

-- There were 22 faceoffs in the Capitals’ end of the ice, 11 in the Rangers’ end.  A lot of that was the power play differential, but some of it was the territorial advantage the Rangers had in this game, too.

-- Of those 11 offensive zone faceoffs, the Caps won three, only one of those wins coming in the third period (1-for-4).

-- Tom Wilson played only 5:12 in this game, only one shift in the third period (that lasting one second).  Part of that was his having an equipment problem, but we wonder if the spare ice time is having effects on how the third and fourth lines are assembled over the course of a game and the effects on continuity.

-- A curious dynamic on the Ranger side…Brad Richards getting only 9:34 of ice time and only two shifts in the third period.  He hasn’t played well in this series, but this seemed to be an odd time to be sending a message to Richards, if that was what was going on.  Of course, if Richards has a big Game 7, John Tortorella will look like a genius.

-- You would not think energy would be an issue in Game 7, but the way ice time was parceled in Game 6 among the players of each team does raise the question with the second half of a back to back coming up.  The Rangers had two forwards with fewer than five minutes of ice time – Chris kreider and Arron Asham.  That meant guys like Ryan Callahan (22:22) and Derek Stepan (23:27) were out past their usual bedtime in terms of ice time.

So, another Game 7.  It is not what we prognosticated, but this will be the seventh time in the last nine playoff series for the Caps that they will face a Game 7.  It is not exactly a surprise.  If there is a ray of sunshine to take out of this game it is that the Caps did not play especially well, got no benefit of the doubt in the way the game was called, gave up a bit of a fluky goal, and still lost by only the thinnest of margins.  But thin margins are a staple of playoff hockey, and the Caps find themselves too often on the wrong side of them.  They have one more chance to make things right, or spend another off-season wondering, “what if?”