A TWO-Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 17: Capitals 4 - Devils 3

The Washington Capitals wrapped up their two-matinee weekend of games in Washington when they hosted the New Jersey Devils in a 2:00 start.  After a sluggish start, the Caps scored three third period goals on their way to a 4-3 win to split the weekend schedule.

 

First Period

The Devils dominated the first third of the first period with shots and possession, and their pressure paid off with a power play at 7:32 of the period when Nick Jensen went to the penalty box for the Caps on a high-sticking penalty.  The Devils converted at 9:35 when Andreas Johnsson collected a pass from Kyle Palmieri, spun to the right of goalie Craig Anderson, and snapped a shot past Anderson’s left pad to put the Devils up, 1-0.

Washington got its first power play of the afternoon when Miles Wood went off for slashing at 17:23 of the period.  The Caps failed to convert, recording one shot on goal (Evgeny Kuznetsov) with the man advantage.  That would do it for the first period.

-- Despite the Devils recording the first seven shots on goal of the game, the Caps finished the period with an 11-10 edge in shots and a 23-18 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Carl Hagelin, T.J. Oshie, Jakub Vrana, and Evgeny Kuznetsov each had a pair of shots; Vrana had four shot attempts.  Alex Ovechkin did not attempt a shot I the period.

-- The Caps had a whopping 12-4 advantage in faceoff wins for the period. Nic Dowd won all four of his draws.

-- Dmitry Orlov led the Caps in ice time with 7:22.

Second Period

The Devils dominate early in the first period, and they scored first.  The Caps dominated early in the second period…and the Devils scored first.  New Jersey doubled their lead 3:55 into the second period when Andreas Johnsson skated the puck wide in the offensive zone to create a passing lane that he used to find Jack Hughes cutting down the middle inside Nic Dowd, and Hughes redirected the puck past Anderson’s glove to make it 2-0.

The teams exchanged penalties mid-way through the period, Garnet Hathaway going off at 10:45 for high-sticking and Sami Vatanen off to the box for hooking at 13:13.  The Devils did not convert their power play chance, but the Caps did.  From the right wing circle, Nicklas Backstrom laid out a saucer pass to John Carlson at the top of the zone.  Carlson sent a shot toward the net that T.J. Oshie redirected out of mid-air down and past goalie Aaron Dell to make it 2-1 at the 13:38 mark.

-- Washington out-shot the Devils, 15-5, in the period and out-attempted them, 24-20.

-- Carl Hagelin led the club with four shots on goal over the first 40 minutes.  Zdeno Chara and Richard Panik each had six shot attempts through two periods.

-- John Carlson led the Caps in ice time through two period (14:33); at the other end was Panik (7:56).

Third Period

Washington had the early shots and possession advantage in the period and made it count mid-way through the third period.  Jakub Vrana and Brenden Dillon played catch with the puck, Dillon taking a return feed from Vrana, backing along the blue line before feeding the puck the John Carlson at the right point.  Carlson walked the puck up into the right wing circle and snapped a shot under Dell’s right arm to make it 2-2, 9:16 into the period.

The Caps got a power play when Kyle Palmieri was whistled for holding at 10:00.  The Caps converted on Oshie’s second goal of the day.  Taking a pass from Evgeny Kuznetsov between the circles, he wasted no time snapping a shot through an Alex Ovechkin screen to give the Caps their first lead of the day at the 11:53 mark.

New Jersey got a chance to tie the game once more with a power play 13:05 into the period when Zdeno Chara went to the penalty box for interference.  The Caps killed off the penalty to preserve the lead.

Washington was awarded their fourth power play goal of the afternoon, and they got some insurance, courtesy of The Captain.  Fine passing from Nicklas Backstrom backhanding a pass from the right wing wall to Oshie in the middle, and Oshie skating in to wrap a pass around a Devils defender to Alex Ovechkin at the goal line, and if was left to Ovechkin to finish the play by one-timing the puck from a sharp angle behind Dell to make it 4-2, 16:56 into the period.

New Jersey scored a window dressing goal with 11.9 seconds left, Nikita Gusev doing the honors.  The Devils did not have enough time to mount any further pressure, and the Caps skated off with a 4-3 win

Other stuff…

-- Nicklas Backstrom had two assists, giving him 698 in his career. His assist on the Oshie goal was his 697th of his career, breaking a tie with Sergei Fedorov and Ryan Getzlaf on the all-time list and tying Dale Hunter.

-- Alex Ovechkin had the game-winning goal, the 112^th game-winner of his career.

-- T.J. Oshie had two goals and an assist for his 19^th three-point game with the Caps, tying John Carlson, Bobby Carpenter, and Larry Murphy for 17^th place in team history.

-- Washington out-shot the Devils, 41-25, and out-attempted them, 66-62.

-- Dmitry Orlov and Zdeno Chara led the team with five shots apiece; Chara had eight shot attempts.

-- Nic Dowd was 14-for-17 on faceoffs (82.4 percent).

-- The Caps had three power play goals, their first three-power play goal game of the season and first since the has four in a 7-0 win over the Boston Bruins on Opening Night of the 2018-2019 season (the Stanley Cup banner raising game).

-- Craig Anderson won his first start as a Capital, stopping 22 of 25 shots.

-- Brenden Dillon led the team with four blocked shots…he also led the team with three giveaways.

-- Only three Caps finished the game with a “plus” rating – Jakub Vrana, Conor Sheary, and Evgeny Kuznetsov (all plus-1).

In the end…

It did not look good early for the Caps, but after the first ten minutes they dominated shots and more of the play over longer stretches.  It was the first time the Caps scored four or more goals in a regulation win since January 28^th (6-3 over the Islanders), and Alex Ovechkin got his second power play goal of the season.  Perhaps these are signs that the Caps are coming out of an offensive funk.  The timing could not be better with the Caps moving up in weight class against opponents over their next ten games.

 

 

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 6

In Week 6, the Washington Capitals marched in place.  And when it was over, the Caps found themselves in the midst of a crowd of teams – four of them, including the Caps – tied in standings points.  Losses to two teams beneath them in the standings made for a disappointing week that the Caps cannot afford as the schedule gets harder.

Record: 2-2-0

The Caps started and ended the week with losses and put together a pair of wins in the middle.  A split in Pittsburgh against the Penguins was not unexpected, and the win over the Buffalo Sabres in the third game of the week was no surprise, the Caps putting their fifth of eight games against the Sabres this season in the record book with a 4-0-1 record.  It was the game that ended the week that left a bad taste in the mouths of Capitals Nation and one that the team might live to regret.  A 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers, a team that had not won a game in regulation on the road this season, was the low point of the week, if not the season to date.  The 2-2-0 record left the Caps in third place in the East Division, after tie-breakers, and tied with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the New York Islanders with 19 standings points.  A win over the Rangers could have left the Caps alone in second place in the division, one point behind the Boston Bruins.

Offense: 2.50/game (season: 3.31 / 10th)

The Caps dropped eight spots in the scoring offense rankings with a week in which threes were wild – they scored three goals in each of the first three games of the week – before coming up short against the Rangers.  The one goal Washington scored against the New Yorkers was their lowest offensive output of the season to date.

Seven Caps shared in the ten goals for the week with Jakub Vrana, Conor Sheary, and Nicklas Backstrom each notching a pair.  Alex Ovechkin wen 0-for-15 shooting in “frustrating scoring line of the week.”  He did have a pair of assists, though.  There were 14 skaters recording points for the week, which shows something for balance, but only two players – Backstrom and Lars Eller – posted as many as three.

It was a frustrating shooting week for the Caps.  Four players posted ten or more shots on goal.  Ovechkin (15), Vrana (14), Eller (11), and Nick Jensen (10).  Of the 50 shots recorded by this quartet, only three goals were recorded, two by Vrana and one by Eller.  The ten shots on goal by Jensen more than doubled his season total, from eight in his first nine games to 18 through 13 games played.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 3.44 / 28th)

In that same span of time, starting with the 2010-2011 season, the Caps allowed seven or more goals only 13 times.  They lost in every instance, as one might expect (0-10-3).  They lost their 14^th instance, too.  If offense is flashy, defense wins.  If you believe that, then Week 6 is a piece of evidence.  The Caps allowed six goals to Pittsburgh (including two empty-netters) and four to the Rangers (one empty-netter), and the Caps lost both games.  They gave up single goals to the Penguins in the rematch and to Buffalo in the third game of the week in wins.

The odd part of it all is that the Caps were reasonably stingy in allowing shot attempts.  In only one game, the 6-3 loss to the Pens to open the week, did the Caps allow more than 40 shot attempts at 5-on-5, and they had a positive shot attempts differential in each of the four games for the week.  In only two games did the Caps finish with a negative shot differential in any situation.  They were minus-1 in shot attempts when ahead in the 3-1 win over Buffalo, and they were minus-1 in differential when behind in the 6-3 loss to the Penguins.

Goaltending: 2.27 / .917 (season: 3.03 / .903)

Vitek Vanecek got all four games of the week, extending his string of consecutive starts to 13 games.  The effects of the heavy workload are showing.  Over his first seven games this season he stopped 223 of 243 shots, a .918 save percentage, and allowed more than three goals only once, in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Penguins on January 19^th.  But over his last seven games he stopped just 165 of 185 shots, a .892 save percentage, and has allowed more than three goals three times.

Vanecek had a good week in Week 6, stopping 100 of 109 shots (.917), so if one might want to put the best spin on it, he seems to be fighting through the wall of mental or physical fatigue he might be experiencing.  On the other hand, his performances have been inconsistent, within games and from game-to-game, his rebound control being a continuing issue (perhaps a product of his workload).  Even within Week 6, two sub-.900 save percentage games bracketed by over-.950 save percentage games in the middle of the week are evidence of the issues with consistency he is experiencing. 

Power Play: 2-for-14 / 14.3 percent (season: 29.3 percent / 7th)

Whether is it predictability, a lack of crisp puck movement, bad luck, or sunspots, the Caps’ power play leaves much to be desired these days.  On the one hand, they posted 26 power play shots on goal in four games this week in 26:44 of power play ice time, not a bad shots-per-minute number.  And, they got power play shots from a lot of players, ten in all.  They got shots from players who matter – Alex Ovechkin (seven), Evgeny Kuznetsov (five), and three apiece from John Carlson, Tom Wilson, and Lars Eller.

Still, the Caps were just 2-for-14 for the week, their 14.3 percent conversion rate tied for 19^th place for the week.  Disturbing in this is the Caps inability to make teams pay when they go to the penalty box frequently.  Washington is just 3-for-25 (12.0 percent) in six games this season when they had four or more power play chances (1-for-17 in their last four such games), while at the other end they had power play goals in three of the five games in which they had but one chance.  Of particular concern is that Alex Ovechkin has one power play goal on 19 shots in 12 games this season (he does have four power play assists).

Penalty Killing: 9-for-12/ 75.0 percent (season: 80.0 percent / T-15th)

A so-so week on the penalty kill became one of the disappointments when the Caps found themselves allowing two power play goals on ten chances to teams ranking in the bottom third of the power play rankings (Pittsburgh: 24^th; New York Rangers: 27^th).  The 75.0 percent penalty killing week left the Caps tied for 23^rd in the league for the week and dropped them into a tie for 15^th in the league for the season at week’s end.

The Caps did a reasonable job of limiting shots, allowing 16 in 19:13 of penalty killing ice time, but the timing of their failures was unfortunate.  Bryan Rust’s power play goal in the second period of the first game of the week allowed the Penguins to regain a lead they gave up only three minutes earlier in the period.  The Pens never trailed again.  Chris Kreider’s power play goal opened the scoring for the Rangers in the last game of the week, putting the Caps on their heels and giving the Blueshirts a lead they would not yield.

After shutting out opponents on power plays in three straight games, the Caps have now allowed a power play goal in three of their last four contests.  And, they have faced three or more shorthanded situations in five straight contests and ten of their last 11.  This is not a recipe for success.

Faceoffs: 96-for-213/ 45.1 percent (season: 46.3 percent / 28th)

A 45.1 percent week in winning faceoff percentage is not good, but it looks better than it was.  The Caps were an abysmal 36.8 percent on offensive zone draws (32-for-87), forcing them to play “chase the puck.”  It wasn’t a lot better in the defensive end, where the Caps were 29-for-63 (46.0 percent).  What is frustrating about this is that the 24 faceoff differential between offensive and defensive zone draws suggest the potential to tilt the ice in the Caps’ favor, but they were not able to translate that into wins.

But here is the thing.  If you take away one player’s performance for the week, the Caps were 86-for-167, a 51.5 percent winning percentage that is quite good.  And that player?  Nicklas Backstrom.  For whatever reason (and our untrained, perhaps uninformed eye can’t help but see and think “lingering injury effects”), Backstrom is, for the moment, a liability in the circle.  He was 10-for-46 for the week (21.7 percent).  Only four times in 16 games has Backstrom won 50 percent of more of his draws taken, and five times he finished under 30 percent.  Only once this season in eight games did he take 15 or more faceoffs and win more than 50 percent of them.

Goals by Period:

If the Caps played only second periods, they would be fine.  They outscored opponents, 6-4, for the week, and that increased their season differential in the middle frame to 26 for and 21 against (plus-5).  In the first and third periods, it was 2-3 and 2-5, respectively, although the entire differential in the third period was empty net goals.  Losing the first periods of games and allowing three goals was a bit odd, since the Caps came into the week having allowed only ten goals in 12 first periods this season.  They were rolled over in the third period in Week 6, but that is not unusual, either, nor is it something they can tolerate.  The 2-5 deficit for the week left them with just nine third period goals scored for the season (tied for fewest in the league) and 20 scored against (tied for seventh-most).

Year-over-Year:

The Caps found themselves slipping further behind last year’s club at a similar point in the schedule.  Through Game 16 on the schedule last season, the Caps were on a 7-0-1 run (a streak of games with points they would extend to 13 (11-0-2).  This year’s club is 2-5-0 in their last seven games.

In almost every other category, this year’s club lags compared to last year’s edition.  Scoring offense is down, scoring defense is up.  The power play is more efficient in this years’ version, but last year’s had more power play goals at this point, owing to a 13-opportunity advantage.  Go from category to category, and this year’s club does not compare well to last year’s.

In the end…

We are getting past the “but COVID” category of explanations for poor performance by the Caps.  The loss to the Rangers at home is the kind that can end up sinking the team over the long haul because frankly, the Caps had no business losing to that team and ended up leaving two points on the table they might need in a few months.  There was just too little on which to hang one’s hat to pronounce this an acceptable week, let alone a good one.  And it represents an opportunity lost because starting I Week 7, the Caps’ next 11 games include four against the Devils (a team with a better points percentage than the Caps), two with Pittsburgh, two with Boston, and three against Philadelphia.  Now the hard part begins.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Lars Eller (1-2-3, plus-1, 56.5 faceoff winning percentage, 2:20 per game on power plays, 2:14 per game penalty killing, three takeaways, recorded 300^th career point in NHL)
• Second Star: Conor Sheary (2-0-2, plus-2, 64.1 percent shot attempts-for on-ice percentage (best on team))
• Third Star: Nick Jensen (0-2-2, plus-2, 10 shots on goal, six hits, one even strength goal against scored (tied for fewest on team)

A NO-Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 16: Rangers 4 - Capitals 1

It was Matinee Saturday when the Washington Capitals hosted the New York Rangers at Capital One Arena.  It did not start well, and it did not end well.  The Caps looked equal parts lethargic and indifferent in dropping a 4-1 decision to the Rangers, ending their two-game winning streak.

First Period

The game started in relatively quiet fashion, and not just a product of having no fans in the arena.  The teams split four shots on goal in the first seven minutes, but the Caps went on a power play at the 7:03 mark when Libor Hajek went off for high sticking.  The Caps failed to convert, recording one shot on goal (Alex Ovechkin) over the two minutes.

It was the Rangers’ turn on the power play at 8:05, when Richard Panik was called for roughing.  The Rangers did not covert, but they got another chance in short order when Lars Eller was sent off for hooking at 14:05.  This one they converted.  Chris Kreider pounced on a rebound from the top of the crease and buried the chance at 14:57 of the period.  It was the only scoring of the fast-moving period.

-- Washington out-shot the Rangers, 8-6, and they out-attempted them, 16-13.  Alex Ovechkin and Nic Dowd led the team with three shots apiece.

-- John Carlson logged 8:35 in ice time in the period to lead the Caps.  His 6:48 in even strength ice time led all players for both teams.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov was 1-for-7 (14.3 percent) on first period faceoffs.  The rest of the Caps were 6-for-10.

-- Conor Sheary and Richard Panik each had only four shifts in the first period.

Second Period

It was another quiet opening to the period, with no scoring and little in the way in shots on goal for both teams, over the first eight minutes.  The Caps were awarded a power play 8:25 into the period when Julien Gauthier went off for tripping.  The Caps did not score, and the Rangers held on to their slim lead until Garnet Hathaway was sent off for the Caps on a tripping call at 13:25 of the period.

The Caps had a chance to get a shorthanded goal on the ensuing Ranger power play, but Nic Dowd’s chance pinged the crossbar, and the teams played on.  New York did not score on their power play.

The Rangers did score late in the period, though.  Alexis Lafreniere scored at 17:44 when he was left at the top of the crease by a lackadaisical Caps defense, settle a pass out of the corner by Artemi Panarin, and backhanded the puck around goalie Vitek Vanecek’s left pad.  Ryan Strome made it 3-0 just 59 seconds later, firing from long range through a screen.

Washington got one back with just 38.2 second left in the period, skating through the left wing circle and snapping a shot under goalie Igor Shesterkin’s glove from low in the circle.  That would end the scoring in the second period.

-- New York out-shot the Caps, 13-11, in the period, while the Caps out-attempted the Rangers, 21-20.

-- Nick Jensen, Jakub Vrana, Nic Dowd, and Alex Ovechkin each had three shots on goal through 40 minutes; John Carlson led the club with six shot attempts.

-- The Caps were 6-for-14 on offensive zone draws through 40 minutes, but Lars Eller was 3-for-3 of that result.

Third Period

The Rangers got a chance to add to their lead early in the period when Tom Wilson was sent off for elbowing at the 36-second mark.  The Caps held the Rangers off the board on the power play to keep the game competitive.  And then they got a chance to carve into the Rangers’ lead when Brendan Smith was sent off for roughing at 4:42 of the period.  For the third time in this game, the Caps came up empty with the man advantage, failing to record a shot on the power play.

The Rangers seemed satisfied with the two-goal lead, and the way the Caps were playing it seemed well-founded.  But when Anthony Bitetto went off at 15:44 on a holding call, and the Caps pulled Vanecek for a 6-on-4 advantage, there was a gliimmer of hope.  That was extinguished when Mika Zibanejad scored a shorthanded empty netter to make it 4-1.  That would be the end of the disappointing afternoon for the home team.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps managed to let a couple of Rangers crawl a few steps out of their offensive rut.  Alexis Lafreniere and Mika Zibanejad, of whom much is expected, pointed only their second goals of the season.

-- When Lafreniere scored, his score sheet line had no shots on goal and one other mark, a credited hit.

-- Nicklas Backstrom is now a liability on faceoffs.  He was 3-for-14 (21.4 percent) in this game, and over his last five games he is 15-for-61 (24.6 percent).

-- Odd thing…the Caps had one point in this game – Orlov’s goal, unassisted.

-- Every skater had a rating other than even for the Caps, 13 with minus ratings, five with plus ratings.  Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson each were a minus-2.

-- Washington had a 28-24 lead in shots on goal for the game and a 54-46 edge in shot attempts.

-- Jakub Vrana led the Caps with five shots on goal; Vrana and John Carlson led the club with six shot attempts.

-- Brenden Dillon led Washington with four credited hits.

-- Carlson led the club with 25:16 in ice time; Garnet Hathaway had only 10:15 at the other end.

-- This was the fifth time in nine home games that the Caps allowed four or more goals.

In the end…

It sucked. And it sucked double because things can get away from the Caps quickly given their upcoming schedule.  The next 11 games include four against the Devils (a team with a better points percentage than the Caps), two with Pittsburgh, two with Boston, and three against Philadelphia.  This could be their season, and losing to a weaker Ranger team was no way to lead into this part of the schedule.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 17: Devils at Capitals, February 21

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Sunday, the Caps wrap up a back-to-back weekend of games when they host the New Jersey Devils at Capital One Arena.  The game is part of the NHL’s “guess who is playing who” portion of the schedule.  The Caps were originally scheduled to face the New York Rangers in the second of back-to-back games against the Blueshirts, but COVID issues in and around the league intervened, requiring a substantial rearrangement of place cards.  The game against the Rangers has been rescheduled for March 20^th, and the matchup with the Devils, originally scheduled for March 7^th, will be played on Sunday.

New Jersey is one of the teams that was most impacted by COVID-driven changes in the schedule.  After beating the Buffalo Sabres, 5-3, in Buffalo on January 31^st, they did not take the ice again until they visited Madison Square Garden and beat the New York Rangers, 5-2, on February 16^th.  They added a 3-2 win in Boston against the Bruins last Thursday to take a three game winning streak into Saturday’s game against the Sabres in Newark, their first home game in more than three weeks.

Miles Wood has had an odd NHL career.  Starting with one game played in the 2015-2016 season, Wood played in 200 games over four seasons and went 37-36-73, with 261 penalty minutes.  By age 23 he was positioning himself as a player with an edge who could chip in some offense.  A parallel to the Caps’ Tom Wilson would not be entirely out of bounds.  But then something happened last season.  His penalty minutes dropped to 57 in 68 games, the first time in four full seasons he did not average more than one penalty minute per game.  But unlike Wilson, who has matured into picking his spots to display his physical skills while improving his offensive production, Wood posted only 23 points in 68 games and was a minus-19.  He has rebounded in the early going, leading the Devils in goals (five) and posting eight points in 11 games. He has had a bit of inconsistency creep into his game, though.  After starting the season with a three-game points streak (3-1-4), Wood is 2-2-4 in his last eight games going into Saturday’s action, but three of those points (two goals, one assist) came in the 5-3 win over Buffalo in the last game for the Devils before their COVID hiatus.  In 13 career games against the Caps, Wood is 4-1-5, minus-6.

He was drafted ahead of Mathew Barzal.  He was drafted ahead of Kyle Connor.  He was drafted ahead of Brock Boeser, Sebastan Aho, and Travis Konecny.  Pavel Zacha was the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft, but in 277 games with the Devils, he has topped ten goals in a season once (13 in 2018-2019) and 30 points once (32 points last season).  He has had intermittent injury issues (facial injury in 2016, concussion in 2017, upper body injury in 2019, COVID protocol absence this season), but he still has not lived up to his lofty draft status in what is now his sixth NHL season.

There are signs, though, that Zacha might be making progress toward becoming an upper echelon player.  In 11 games this season he has four goals, second on the team, and he has six points to average more than half a point per game.  What is more, his production has improved since a slow start.  He started the season without a point in his first four games and had a minus-1 rating.  Since then, he is 4-2-6, plus-2, in seven games while averaging a little over 16 minutes per game.  He is one of two Devils forwards with a power play goal this season (Jack Hughes is the other).  Extending his production back to the end of last season, Zacha is 6-7-13, plus-4, in his last 21 games.  He is 0-3-3, plus-3, in 11 games against the Caps in his career.

Yegor Sharangovich is not a player one might pay a lot of attention to, but he is unique in some respects.  First, he was taken in the fifth round of the 2018 Entry Draft (141^st overall) and remains the only player in the fifth round of that draft to have dressed for an NHL game.  Second, his first NHL goal was a game winner with 1.7 seconds left in overtime, against Jaroslav Halak and the Boston Bruins in a 2-1 win in the Devils’ first victory of the season on January 16^th.  Third, his other goal scored this season was also a game winner (he is the only Devil with two game winning goals), that on February 16^th in a 5-2 win over the New York Rangers.  And, he wears number “17,” formerly worn by Ilya Kovalchuk, who scored 89 goals in 222 games over four seasons with the Devils.  Sharangovich has shown flashed of goal scoring ability, posting 15 goals in 38 games with the Belarus U-20 squad in 2016-2017 and with 10 goals in 57 games with the Binghamton Devils in the AHL last season.  This would be his first career appearance against the Caps.

1.  No team has allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Devils (13, four fewer than the Dallas Stars), and their 1.18 5-on-5 goals allowed per game is fewest in the league.

2.  Early scoring has been an issue for New Jersey.  Only two teams have posted fewer goals than the seven New Jersey has going into Saturday’s game (Buffalo: 5; Dallas: 4).  Late scoring has been an issue as well.  Only Washington (nine) and the New York Rangers (eight) have fewer third period goals than the Devils (ten).

3.  Just don’t count on scoring early against the Devils.  They have allowed five first period goals, fewest in the league.

4.  The Devils do not draw penalties with any frequency.  Their 3.29 penalties drawn per 60 minutes rank 27^th in the league.

5.  Blocking shots is not New Jersey’s thing.  Their 10.93 blocked shots per 60 minutes rank 29^th in the league.

1.  Washington still plays a “heavy” game.  The Caps’ 25.26 hits per 60 minutes rank fifth in the league.

2.  The Caps lead the league in second period goals scored (25).

3.  The Caps are just 3-2-3 when leading after one period.  No team has lost more games (regulation and extra time) when leading after one frame.

4.  Through Friday, Washington has four wins and two regulation losses when outshooting opponents, four wins and two regulation losses when they are outshot.  The difference is in the extra time losses.  The Caps have not lost in extra time when outshooting opponents but they have three extra time losses when outshot.

5.  Only two teams have spent less time on power plays than the Caps (64:04 through Friday): Florida (63:41) and New Jersey (50:07).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Ty Smith

Ty Smith was taken by the Devils with the 17^th overall pick in the 2018 draft, the sixth defenseman taken in that draft.  Rasmus Dahlin (first overall) got most of the attention when drafted, Quinn Hughes (seventh overall) has emerged as a foundational component of the Vancouver Canucks’ blue line, Adam Boqvist (eighth) and Noah Dobson (12^th) have played in more games.  But Smith has made enough of an impression to be in the conversation as top rookie in the East Division so far this season and is getting some attention as a Calder Trophy candidate as top rookie in the league. 

Smith came to the NHL with quite a pedigree.  In five seasons with the Spokane Chiefs of the Western Hockey League, he finished with the second highest career goal total (45) and career point total (235) among defensemen in Chiefs history.  He made the jump directly from Canadian juniors to the Devils this season where he is tied among rookie defensemen in goals (two), tied for the lead in assists (six), and is the leader in points (eight).  However, like some rookies, a hot start has given way to a more modest level of production.  He started his NHL career with points in his first five games (1-5-6, plus-5), including a goal in his NHL debut against Boston.  But in his last six games he is 1-1-2, plus-1, although his ice time has been ramped up over those six games (20:03 per game, compared to 15:31 in his first five games).  This will be Smith’s first appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Richard Panik

It has been an up and down year for Richard Panik.  No points in his first three games, one (an assist) in his first seven contests.  He then had points in consecutive games, including his first and only goal of the season, but then he went five more without a point.  That stretch included a minus-4 rating in a 7-4 loss to Philadelphia, the last of three games over which he was a combined minus-8.  He had his first multi-point game (two assists) in the Caps’ 3-1 win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, but he went without a point in the Caps’ 3-1 win over Buffalo on Thursday. 

The odd thing of it all is that despite the fits and starts in his offensive production, Panik is second on the club in personal shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (56.1 percent, minimum: five games).  But even here there is a certain up and down quality.  Panik has been on ice for eight goals against at even strength in February, fourth-most on the team.  Part of that might owe to he and his third line linemates facing strong opponent lines, but it is an unfortunate statistic.  Panik has a slow start last season, too, even slower than this one. He went without a point in his first 12 games and was just 2-0-2 in his first 23 games, but in a short season, a slow start gets magnified, even if he is “playing” the right way. Panik is 1-3-4, minus-5, in 15 career games against New Jersey.

In the end…

The Caps have won two straight going into their Saturday matchup with the New York Rangers, and the Devils have won three in a row going into their Saturday game against Buffalo.  If the Caps can win both weekend games, they can put some distance between themselves and the fifth-place (first non-playoff qualifier) team, the Penguins.  If New Jersey can win both of their weekend games, they can jump right into the playoff conversation (currently five points behind the New York Islanders).  Despite what it says on the calendar, this game has meaning.  The Caps cannot afford to “play down” to an opponent who might be in sixth place in the division, but one that still sports a 6-3-2 record and a better points percentage (.636) than the Caps (.633).

Capitals 5 – Devils 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 16: Rangers at Capitals, February 20

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals look to make it three wins in a row for the first time since they ended January on a three-game winning streak when they host the New York Rangers at Capital One Arena on Saturday in a 12:30 start.

While the Caps have clawed their way back into third place in the East Division with consecutive wins this week, the Rangers are stuck in neutral, currently in seventh place in the division and six points out of a playoff spot.  If there is a bright spot, or at least something the Rangers can hang their helmets on, it is that they have broken even on the road this season (2-2-1).

What the Rangers have not done is play often on the road, skating only five of their 15 games away from Madison Square Garden.  They have two players averaging a point a game in those five road games, one a familiar name and the other something of a surprise.  It is not surprising that Artemi Panarin leads the team in road scoring so far (five points).  He has points in four of five games on the road this season. What is a bit of a surprise is that only one of those points came via a goal.  He is 1-for-18 shooting on the road so far (5.6 percent, tied for 104^th among 140 forwards with at least 15 shots on goal), including an 0-for-8 shooting performance in a 3-2 Gimmick win in Philadelphia over the Flyers in the Rangers’ last road game on Thursday.

It is a far cry from last season, when Panarin posted 12 goals in his first 16 road games (on 49 shots, a 24.4 shooting percentage), including a hat trick in San Jose against the Sharks, on his way to a career high 32 goals in 69 games overall.  He did end last season with a four-game streak without a goal, so he could be said to be in a rut in this area.  Panarin is 8-10-18, plus-7, in 16 career games against Washington.

The more surprising point-per game player on the road is Colin Blackwell (2-2-4 in four road games).  He and Ryan Strome are the only Rangers with two goals in road games so far this season, and he has one point in each of the four road games in which he played.  The 27-year old Blackwell is one of those “beat the odds” players.  A seventh-round draft pick (194^th overall) of the San Jose Sharks out of St. John’s Prep in 2011, Blackwell went on to a four-year career at Harvard University, where he was sidelined for much of his junior and senior seasons from a concussion.  He never played for the Sharks, moving to Buffalo on a rookie tryout and then playing for the Sabres’ AHL affiliate in Rochester.  In July 2018 he signed as a free agent with the Nashville Predators, where he played parts of two seasons, going 3-7-10, plus-6, in 33 games.  Once more a free agent after last season, he signed a two-year/$1.45 million contract with the Rangers last October.  That Blackwell is this productive, even if it is a small population of games, while averaging on 12:39 in ice time (19^th of 22 skaters to dress for the Rangers this season) has to qualify as a surprise. Blackwell is 0-0-0, even, in his only appearance against the Caps to date.

It must seem like a good idea at the time.  Columbus thought it would be a good idea to trade Jeff Carter to Los Angeles for Jack Johnson and a first round draft pick in 2012.  Pittsburgh thought it would be a good idea to sign Johnson to a five year/$16.25 million contract as a free agent in July 2018.  The Rangers thought it would be a good idea to sign Johnson to a one-year/$1.15 million “let’s take a look” contract last October.  But since first full season in Columbus in 2012-2013, he is one of ten defensemen to play in at least 500 games, post at least 150 points, and record a minus-30 rating or worse.  Only seven of 64 defensemen over that period appearing in at least 500 games have a worse on-ice even strength goals for percentage than Johnson (47.8).  Johnson can provide some offensive punch, but play in his own end has been an issue from time to time. 

This season, Johnson has been on ice for four even strength goals against, second fewest on the team among defensemen, but he has only played in six games, tied for fewest among defensemen.  He only returned to the lineup on Thursday in the Rangers’ 3-2 Gimmick win against the Flyers after a groin injury.  The odd part of his performance to date is that he has been on ice for only one goal scored by the Rangers at even strength, and he is looking for his first point of the season.  That offense might be a red flag.  Only once in five seasons preceding this one did Johnson record more than 20 points (5-18-23 for Columbus in 2016-2017) after posting his second career 40-point season in 2014-2015.  Johnson is 5-9-14, minus-4, in 31 career games against the Caps.

1.  The Rangers are a top-ten team in scoring defense on the road (2.60 goals per game/T-9^th), but they are a bottom ten team in scoring offense on the road (2.40/22^nd).  They have not scored more than three goals in any of their five road games this season, and only once did they score as many as three goals in regulation, that being in their first road game of the season, a 4-3 Gimmick loss to the Penguins in Pittsburgh on January 22^nd.

2.  Special teams have been an issue for the Rangers on the road on both sides of the puck.  Their road power play of 11.8 percent ranks 26^th, while their road power play of 73.3 percent ranks 23^rd.

3. A lack of scoring hasn’t prevented the Rangers from being balanced.  Of the 24 skaters to take the ice so far this season overall, 21 have recorded at least one point, including all 15 to dress for at least ten games.

4.  Both Ranger wins on the road have come in extra time – 3-2 in overtime over Buffalo and 3-2 in the Gimmick against Philadelphia.

5.  Since a nine-game road winning streak last season that ended with a win on February 27^th, the Rangers are 3-3-2 on the road.

1.  Washington has the second-worst scoring defense on home ice in the league at 3.38 goals allowed per game.  Only Edmonton (3.70) is worse.

2.  Every Capital who has played more than five games on home ice (20 skaters) has at least one point.

3.  Conor Sheary likes Capital One Arena…three goals on seven shots (42.9 percent, best on the club) in eight games. 

4.  If Tom Wilson scores an empty net goal, he will become the sixth player in Caps history to record ten career empty net goals.

5.  Vitek Vanecek has stopped 67 of the last 69 shots he faced (.971) over his last 148 minutes, dating back to the second period of the 6-3 loss to Pittsburgh on February 14^th.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Alexis Lafreniere

It’s not juniors, is it kid? When the Rangers won the Alexis Lafreniere draft sweepstakes, it was supposed to signal a return to playoff contention for the Blueshirts after three years of absences, especially when building on having had the number two overall pick – Kaapo Kakko – in the 2019 draft.  Lafreniere was drafted after a 35-77-112, plus-41 season in 52 games with Rimouski Oceanic in the QMJHL last season after a 37-68-105, plus-52 season with Rimouski the previous year.  But while the spotlight is brighter in New York, it can be harsher, too.  Lafreniere has one point – a game-winning overtime goal in Buffalo on January 28^th – in 15 games to date. 

No one is pinning a “bust” label on the rookie, but his ice time is being more closely managed.  He averaged 15:21 in ice time over his first eight games, but starting with Game 9, in which he skated only 9:00 in a 3-1 win over Pittsburgh on February 1^st, his ice time has been reduced to 13:35 a game over his last seven contests, and he had only 12 minutes in the Rangers’ win in Philadelphia on Thursday, and he has been spending more time on the Rangers’ third line.  In those last seven games, he has no shots on goal in three of them, and only once did he post as many as three shots.  Youngsters, even those for whom greatness is not only anticipated, but assumed, can have growing pains, and Lafreniere seems to be suffering his share of them at the moment.  Caps fans will hope the pain lasts a bit longer.  He did not have a point and was “even” in 12:38 of ice time in his first and only appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Carl Hagelin

There might not be another Capital having as frustrating a start to this season as Carl Hagelin.  In 15 games, he has one goal and one assist.  On home ice, he is looking for his first goal (he has one assist) after going 0-for-14 in shooting in eight games at Capital One Arena.  Efficiency has been an issue.  Since February 23, 2019, when Hagelin played in his first game in Washington, 314 forwards have appeared in at least 75 games.  Hagelin’s 7.3 percent shooting ranks tied for 284^th in that group.  When he does score, it matters – three of his 12 goals are game-winners – but they just have not come too often.  Hagelin has never been an efficient goal scorer, but he has the odd attribute of being more efficient on the road over his career (8.3 percent) than he has been at home (7.5 percent).  If there is a “glass half full” fact on which to pin one’s hopes, his best shooting percentage month of his career has been in February (10.5 percent in 105 February games played).

Even in an area of strength, there are hints of concern.  Hagelin has been on ice for seven of the ten power play goals scored against the Caps this season.  Much of that owes to the fact that he gets a lot of penalty killing ice time (3:04 per game, fourth among forwards playing in at least ten games), and he gets a lot those minutes facing opponents’ “A Team” of power play personnel, but of the 68 forwards playing in ten games and averaging at least two minutes of shorthanded ice time per game, there are only six who have been on ice for more goals against.  Hagelin is 6-6-12, plus-8, in 23 games against the Rangers.

In the end…

The Rangers have not won a game in regulation since beating the Caps, 4-2, on February 4^th at Capital One Arena (1-3-1, the lone win recorded in the Gimmick).  The Caps are coming out of that four-game losing streak with a couple of fine defensive and goaltending efforts.  Washington has an annoying tendency to come out sluggish in noon-ish starts, so with a 12:30 pm start on Saturday, this would be something to watch.  But given the directions in which these teams are currently heading, one would have to give the nod to the Caps…

...but don’t we always?

Capitals 4 – Rangers 2

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 15: Capitals 3 - Sabres 1

The Washington Capitals returned home from their trip to western Pennsylvania on Thursday night to host the Buffalo Sabres in ice-shrouded Washington.  In a relatively quiet contest, the Caps got even strength, power play, and shorthanded goals to hand the Sabres a 3-1 loss for their second consecutive win.

First Period

The Sabres had the first chance when a Sam Reinhart shot just over five minutes into the contest beat goalie Vitek Vanecek, but the puck rang off the crossbar, and the game remained scoreless. The teams went back and forth from there finding ways to pound pucks off iron, but none found the back of the net.

The Caps were awarded the game’s first power play when William Borgen was sent off for slashing at 16:19 of the period.  The Caps made them pay when Nicklas Backstrom backhanded a pass through the slot to Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer from the left wing circle.  Goalie Linus Ullmark made the initial save, but the puck bounced back to Ovechkin for a second whack.  That one ended up at the top of the crease where Backstrom came from behind the net to shove it the last couple of feet behind Ullmark, and the Caps had a 1-0 leave 17:23 into the period.  That would be how the teams went to the first intermission.

-- Each team recorded six shots on goal for the period, while the Caps led in shot attempts, 19-15.  Alex Ovechkin was the only Capital with two shots, and he led the team with four shot attempts.

-- Of the 34 total shot attempts for both teams, 15 were misses, three were off iron (two for Buffalo, one for the Caps).

-- Buffalo out-hit the Caps, 12-8. Ovechkin was the only Capital with more than one (three).

-- Justin Schultz led the Caps in ice time, with 7:02.

Second Period

Buffalo had the first power play of the middle frame when T.J. Oshie was called for high-sticking the 5:46 mark. It would be the Caps converting shorthanded, though.  Tom Wilson stripped the puck from Sam Reinhart at the defensive blue line and broke out with Nic Dowd on a 2-on-0 break.  Wilson carried the puck the length as Dowd pulled up behind him and deked Ullmark to the ice before slipping the puck around his right pad to make it 2-0, 6:38 into the period.

The teams went back and fort over the last half of the period, but there was no further scoring, and the Caps took a 2-0 lead to the dressing room.

-- The teams were still split down the middle in shots through 40 minutes, both with 17 shots on goal.. Washington had a 39-30 edge in shot attempts.

-- He did not have any shots on goal in the second period, but Ovechkin still led the team through 40 minutes with four shots on goal and seven shot attampts.

-- The Caps out-hit the Sabres through 40 minutes, 20-14, Ovechkin leading the club with four.

-- Washington had only three blocked shots through two periods, Dmitry Orlov, Nic Dowd, and Evgeny Kuznetsov recording them.

Third Period

The Caps put the game away in the eighth minute of the third period when Justin Schultz skated the puck down the right wing with speed.  Crossing the offensive blue line and skating the puck deep in the right wing circle, he fed the biscuit back to Lars Eller trailing the play.  Eller one-timed a shot that was kicked aside by Ullmark, but Conor Sheary jumped on the loose puck and flipped the puck behind Ullmark high into the net to make it 3-0, 7:28 into the period.

The only mystery left in the last half of the period was whether Vitek Vanecek could record his first NHL shutout after having a shutout broken up with a third period goal in the Caps’ 3-1 win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday.  Unfortunately, Vanecek had his shutout spoiled on a Victor Olafsson power play goal at the 11:27 mark, but it would be the only goal Vanecek would allow in the Caps’ second straight 3-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- Vitek Vanecek has stopped 48 of 50 shots over his last two games (.960 save percentage).

-- Buffalo out-shot the Caps, 23-21 for the game (Washington had only four third period shots, scoring once).  Washington led in shot attempts, 50-45.

-- The Caps won 20 of 39 draws (51.3 percent).  Lars Eller led in winning percentage among individual Caps (4-for-7/57.1 percent).

-- Zdeno Chara did not have a point, but he was the only Capital finishing with a plus-2 rating.

-- Alex Ovechkin did not have a shot on goal after the first period, but he led the club in shots nevertheless (four), and his eight shot attempts led the team.

-- Three Capitals did not record a shot attempt – Justin Schultz, Zdeno Chara, and Richard Panik.  All were “plus” players nonetheless.

-- Lars Eller’s assist on Conor Sheary’s goal was his 300^th career NHL point. 

-- John Carlson led the team in ice time (23:04); no Capital logged less than 12 minutes of ice time.

-- Neither Nic Dowd nor Lars Eller took an offensive zone draw; Nicklas Backstrom did not take a defensive zone faceoff.

-- This was the first game this season in which the Caps scored at even strength, on a power play, and shorthanded.  The shorthanded goal by Tom Wilson was the Caps’ first of the season.

In the end…

Not a great win, but a solid win.  It allowed the Caps to jump over the New York Islanders into third place in the East Division and a tie-breaker out of second place (Philadelphia).  The Caps did not fire on all cylinders, but one does get the sense they are bending the performance curve once more toward success after their four game losing streak.  Just in time for a trip to New York on Saturday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 15: Sabres at Capitals, February 18

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home from a two-game trip to Pittsburgh to host the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night at Capital One Arena.  The Caps come home having snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over the Penguins in Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, while the Sabres played their first games in February after a COVID-protocol absence from the ice since January 31^st.  They dropped a pair of games to the New York Islanders on home ice, a 3-1 decision on Monday and a 3-0 shutout at the hands of the Isles on Tuesday.

Their game against the Caps on Thursday will be the Sabres’ first on the road since a four-game road trip in mid-January happened to end in Washington that resulted in a split of 4-3 Gimmick wins, the Caps winning the first of them and the Sabres returning the favor in the second contest.

The Sabres, in a small population of road games, has had balanced offense, eight players sharing the 12 goals scored, four of them with a pair apiece.  The surprising part of that might be that none of the goal scorers on the road to date are named “Jack Eichel.”  He does have four assists in four road games, though, so his contributions to the score sheet – leading the team in road points to date -- are being recorded in other ways.  Still, his goal scoring overall is off with only two goals on 42 shots in 12 games, and after starting the season with six points in his first three games (all assists, three of them in two games against the Caps), he is 2-3-5, minus-9, in his last nine games.

The absence of goals overall is unusual for Eichel, but not having scored on the road is not an unusual matter for him.  In 184 home games over his career he has 87 goals, but in 192 road games he has only 57.  He is without a goal on the road since he had a pair, including the game-winner, in a 5-2 win in Pittsburgh against the Penguins last February 22^nd, a streak that is at nine road games and counting.  His career assist total is higher on the road (110) than on home ice (99), but not enough to offset the home-road difference in goal scoring.  Eichel is 3-9-12, minus-4, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Buffalo has dressed nine defensemen in games this season, but only two of them have appeared in all of them so far.  That Rasmus Dahlin is one, even with his just having come off the COVID protocol list last weekend, is not very surprising.  The other is Colin Miller, a six year veteran playing for his third club and fourth organization since he was taken with the last pick of the fifth round in the 2012 Entry Draft.  Drafted by the Los Angeles Kings, Miller never skated with the parent club before he was traded to the Boston Bruins with goalie Martin Jones and a first round pick in the 2015 Entry Draft for Milan Lucic.  Miller lasted two seasons in Boston before he was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2017 Expansion Draft.  Two seasons in Vegas, and he was off again, traded to Buffalo for a pair of draft picks in June 2019.

Miller has had a bit of difficulty getting untracked on offense with the Sabres.  After posting 13 goals in 147 games with Vegas over two season, he had only one goal in 51 games (on 79 shots) last year with the Sabres.  His 1.3 shooting percentage ranked 175 of 189 defensemen playing in at least 40 games.  He has been a bit better, efficiency-wise, in 12 games to date this season, but he still has only one goal on 14 shots (7.1 percent), that one coming against the Caps in a 4-3 Gimmick win in Washington on January 24^th.  Miller is 3-2-5, minus-8, in 15 career games against Washington.

He might not be the clear number one goalie at the moment, but Linus Ullmark has had the best performance of three goaltenders employed by the Sabres so far this season.  He dropped his first two decisions of the season, both to the Capitals (a loss in regulation and another in the Gimmick), but since then he is 3-1-1, 2.70, .914 in five appearances.  If there is a concern approaching this game, it might be that in his most recent appearance, against the Islanders on Monday, Ullmark stopped 26 of 29 shots in a 3-1 loss.  It was the first time in seven appearances this season that his save percentage was under .900 (.897).

Ullmark has spent his entire NHL career in the Sabres organization, since he was taken by Buffalo in the sixth round (163^rd overall) in the 2012 Entry Draft.  However, his current contract with the Sabres, a one-year/$2.6 million deal agreed to after Ullmark was reported ready to ask for $4.1 million in arbitration,  expires at the end of this season. While he might not be in the elite tier of goaltenders come the summer free agent period, a goalie who turns 28 years of age in July who can man a back-up role or serve as a number one when needed, and who has shown improvement in recent years, will be in demand.  Ullmark is 2-3-1, 2.91, .899 in six career appearances against the Capitals.

1.  Buffalo has the fewest goals scored at 5-on-5 in the league (15 in 12 games).  Their 1.25 goals per game at 5-on-5 is also fewest in the league, and by a considerable margin over the 30^th place team (New York Rangers: 1.43).

2.  The Sabres have only five first period goals scored this season, second-fewest in the league (Dallas: 4).  They have not scored more than one first period goal in any game this season.  Two of those five first period goals came in games against the Capitals.

3.  At the other end, Buffalo has only 10 third period goals scored, tied for third fewest in the league (with New Jersey and San Jose).

4.  Buffalo has scored first in games only three times in 12 games.  While they have not suffered a loss in regulation when doing so (2-0-1), their two wins are tied for second-fewest in the league, with Nashville (Ottawa has not won in four tries when scoring first).

5.  The Sabres are one of three teams without an empty net goal this season (Ottawa and Colorado are the others).

1.  Washington has a 53.3 percent power play on home ice, best in the league (8-for-15).

2.  The Caps have 15 power play chances on home ice, fifth lowest total in the league, and their 2.14 chances per game on home ice ranks last in the league.

3.  The Caps have scored at least one power play goal in six of seven home games this season.  The only game in which they did not was January 22^nd, when they were 0-for-1 in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo.

4.  Washington is 1-2-1 on home ice when leading after one period, their .250 winning percentage ranking third worst among teams that have taken leads into the first intermission on home ice.  Not that the Caps are a lot better on home ice when leading after two periods. They are 2-1-0, but that is three leads after 40 minutes in seven home games, and their .667 winning percentage is tied for fourth worst among the 30 teams to have taken leads into the last period.

5.  The Caps have the second-worst net penalties per 60 minutes on home ice (minus-1.12) in the league.  Only Minnesota is worse (minus-1.17).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Taylor Hall

Has any player in recent memory with as much talent as Taylor Hall traveled as often?  Hall is in his 11^th NHL season, and the Sabres are his fourth team (Edmonton, New Jersey, and Arizona are the others).  He is an unrestricted free agent working on a one-year/$8 million contract with Buffalo, so another move at the end of this season (if not sooner, which raises the possibilities of two new teams in his future – as a rental this season and with as a free agent in the off-season) is possible.

Hall has not been quite the player he was, performance-wise, since his Hart Trophy season in 2017-2018 when he was 39-54-93, plus-14, for the New Jersey Devils.  In two plus seasons since then, he is 28-70-98, minus-29, in 110 games for the Devils, Arizona Coyotes, and Buffalo.  Good numbers, but a notch or two under that most valuable player scoring line.  Hall opened this season with a goal and an assist against the Caps, but he is without a goal in 11 games since then.  His 3.2 shooting percentage (one goal on 31 shots) ranks 115^th among 119 forwards with at least 30 shots on goal.  He has never been an especially efficient shooter (10.3 percent career shooting percentage), but that efficiency has taken a significant dip in the second half of his career.  That 2017-2018 MVP season is the only one in the past seven seasons, including this one, in which his shooting percentage was over 10 percent (14.0).  Hall is 7-14-21, plus-1, in 18 career games against Washington.

Washington: Lars Eller

His numbers this season do not leap off the page: 2-3-5, minus-4, in ten games.  However, Lars Eller might be thought of as the mortar that keeps the bricks in place for the Caps.  Centering the third line on most nights, he can fill in as a scoring line center in a pinch.  He is one of nine Capitals with multiple power play points this season (two).  His 53.8 winning percentage on faceoffs leads the team (minimum: 25 faceoffs), and he is even better in the defensive end (54.8 percent).  He is second among forwards in shorthanded ice time (2:41).  With a $3.5 million salary cap hit, Eller looks like a bargain relative to his cohort of centers in the $3.0-4.0 million cap hit range. 

Not all is good, though.  His on-ice even strength goals for average is weak (35.7 percent), tenth of 12 forwards having played 12 games, a product of his being on ice for only five even strength goals scored by the Caps.  And, a lot of his plus-minus problems (minus-4 for the season) can be traced to one game, a minus-4 result in the Caps’ 7-4 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on February 7^th.  Nevertheless, Eller brings a three-game points streak into this game (1-2-3), and he is one point shy of 300 point in his NHL career (134-165-299).  If that point is scored shorthanded, he will jump into the top-ten in shorthanded points scored by centers in Capitals history (Glen Currie, Joe Juneau, Andrei Nikolishin, and Ron Lalonde are currently tied for ninth with seven shorthanded points apiece).  Eller is 3-6-9, minus-9, in 44 career games against Buffalo.

In the end…

This is one of those “on the one hand, on the other” kinds of games.  On the one hand, the Caps are coming off what T.J. Oshie described as their “most complete” game of the season.  On the other, such games can be accompanied by a letdown in the game that follows.  On the one hand, the win against Pittsburgh "it's something to build off…It's just a step in the right direction,” as head coach Peter Laviolette described it.  On the other, the Caps are still 1-4-0 in their last five games.  On the one hand, the third line of Lars Eller, Conor Sheary, and Richard Panik (2-2-4, plus a superb shut down effort on defense) had a monster of a game against the Pens. On the other, the reassembled top line of Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Oshie did not have a goal (two assists) and finished even for the evening.  On the one hand, the Caps are returning home. On the other, that doesn’t mean quite as much without the noisy fans in the building.  On the one hand, the Caps are playing a struggling opponent, coming out of their COVID protocol absence, and struggling on ice as well.  On the other, the Caps have an annoying tendency to play down to the level of such an opponent, and the Sabres did extend the Caps to the freestyle competition in both games at Capital One Arena so far this season.  On the one hand, the Caps should win this game.  On the other…well, no.  They will win this game.

Capitals 5 – Sabres 2