Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 10

Another week in the books, and it was another winning week for the Washington Capitals, despite it being a light workload.  The Caps have been a remarkably consistent club from week-to-week, described by one outlet as “a well-oiled machine.” 

Record (1-0-1)

It was the ninth time in ten weeks that the Caps finished a week over .500 in standings points earned.  Not that it was a smooth week by any means, the Caps coming back from a two-goal deficit in Chicago to force overtime against the Blackhawks, where they lost for the sixth time this season, tied for most overtime losses with the Calgary Flames.  The Caps came back to beat the Winnipeg Jets in a game that was closer than the 5-2 final would suggest, the final margin provided by a pair of empty net goals.  Nevertheless, the Caps wrapped up the week 13-3-3 in their last 19 games, the best record in the league since November 8^th when they started that run.

Offense: 4.50 / game (season: 3.47 / 5th)

It was a fine week for the Caps in the offensive end of the ice, even with the two empty net goals against Winnipeg to close the week.  Three Caps – Alex Ovechkin, Conor Sheary, and Daniel Sprong shared the lead in goals scored with two apiece, Sheary getting the lone game-winning goal for the week in the 5-2 win over the Jets.  Ovechkin’s two goals left him with 752 career goals, 14 behind Jaromir Jagr for third place on the all-time list of goal scorers.  The Caps got additional secondary scoring with goals from Lars Eller, Mike Sgarbossa, and Brett Leason.

The Caps had 14 skaters record points for the week, led by the trio of Ovechkin, Sheary, and Sprong with three apiece.  Five other skaters – Eller, Sgarbossa, Leason, T.J. Oshie, and John Carlson had multi-point weeks.  The Caps did not get a goal from a defenseman in Week 10, but five blueliners had points, and none of the seven defensemen to dress had minus-ratings for the week. 

Washington averaged 42.5 shots per game for the two games in Week 10, the highest average in the league for the week.

Defense: 3.50 / game (season: 2.57 / 6th)

It was a shaky week for the Caps in the defensive end, especially against Chicago, against whom they allowed five goals in a 5-4 overtime loss.  The Caps, who started the season as one of the stingiest teams when it came to allowing shots on goal, allowed an average of 35.0 shots for the week, tied for seventh-most in the league.

Ovechkin and Sheary were the two Caps on ice for a pair of even strength goals against.  The goals in that category were spread rather liberally, 11 skaters on ice for at least one even strength goal against.  Even though the Caps allowed 93 shot attempts at 5-on-5, they finished the week plus-13 in that category, tied for 11^th best in the league.

Goaltending: 3.51 / .900 (season: 2.47 / .913 / 4 shutouts)

It was an uneven week in goal for the Caps.  Ilya Samsonov opened the week allowing five goals on 28 shots in the 5-2 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks to open the week.  He was strong to start, stopping all six Chicago shots he faced in the first period, but he allowed five goals on 22 shots in the last 40 minutes of regulation and overtime.  Nevertheless, he finished the week with an 11-2-2 win-loss record for the season.  No goalie in the league has played as many games (16) with as few losses in regulation as Samsonov (two).

It hasn’t been often that a goalie stole a game for the Caps the last couple of years, but Vitek Vanecek came as close to doing that as one could hope, stopping 40 of 42 shots in the Caps’ 5-2 win over Winnipeg to end the week.  The game was closer than the final score indicated, the Caps scoring a pair of empty net goals in the last 2:40 of the contest.  Until then, Vanecek was brilliant, especially late, stopping 19 of 20 second period shots and 13 of 14 third period shots.  He is now 4-1-2 in his last seven games, with a 2.50 goals against average and .916 save percentage.

Power Play: 1-for-5 / 20.0 percent (season: 16.7 percent / 25th).

It says something about the state of the Caps’ power play when a 20 percent week could be thought of, if not good, than an improvement.  Even with the 20 percent week, the Caps are at just 15.1 percent over the last seven weeks after going 6-for-31 in the first three weeks of the season (19.4 percent).

In addition to the lack of scoring efficiency with the man advantage, the Caps are finding themselves with fewer opportunities.  The Caps had 10 or more chances in each of the first three weeks of the season, but only a total of 11 over the past two weeks.  With 2.80 chances per game for the season, they now rank 22^nd in the league.

Alex Ovechkin had the only power play goal of the week for the Caps, tying him with Dave Andreychuk for most power play goals all-time (274).

Penalty Killing: 5-for-9 / 55.6 percent (season: 80.0 percent / T-14th)

Week 10 was awful for the Caps on the penalty kill, their worst week of the season.  Making it worse was allowing three goals on six chances to Chicago, a team that ended the week – with that breakout performance (most power play goals in a game this season for the Blackhawks) – 16^th in the league on the power play (18.8 percent). 

The sad week brought to an abrupt halt a four-game streak without allowing a power play goal that the Caps brought into the week.  If there was a glimmer of a silver lining for the week, that three-goal disaster in Chicago was only the second time in 30 games this season that the Caps allowed multiple power play goals.  The first instance was against Florida on November 30^th, when the Caps allowed a pair of power play goals in the last eight minutes of the third period to allow the Panthers to tie, and then to go ahead of the Caps in the last minute in a 5-4 Florida win.

Faceoffs: 50-for-116 / 43.1 percent (46.0 percent / 30th)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Caps are just a god-awful team on faceoffs.  At least Week 10 was marginally better than Week 9, but this is a team that just cannot win draws on a consistent basis, either individually or as a team.

The Caps were especially bad in the offensive zone this week, winning only a third of their draws.  And considering that they only took 33 offensive zone draws to 41 in the defensive end, the ice was tilted a bit in wrong direction to Capitals’ liking.  No Capital taking more than one draw finished over 50 percent in offensive zone faceoffs.  The Caps were better in the defensive zone, but 41 percent is hardly something to look back on fondly.  Of the five Caps to take at least ten draws, only Mike Sgarbossa was over 50 percent for the week (8-for-14/57.1 percent).

Goals by Period

Odd that even in a short week, neither the Caps nor their opponents could manage a first period goal.  But that made for some wild times in the last 40 minutes of the two games.  It was not unusual in that the Caps finished the week as a top-five team in both second period goals (tied for second) scored and third period goals (tied for fourth) scored (38 in each frame).  Those first periods without a goal allowed left the Caps in fifth place for fewest first period goals allowed for the season (17).  The Caps were the only team in Week 10 to go scoreless, for and against, in the first periods of games.

 Year-over-Year

The Caps are tracking very closely to the 2020-2021 edition of the team in wins (two behind last year), points (one behind last year), goals for (one ahead of last year), and shot attempts against at 5-on-5 (even with last year).  Where the Caps have had an advantage with this year’s team is in offensive engagement, the shots on goal and shot attempts at fives being significantly higher this year than last.

In the end…

The Caps have not had long winning streaks, four wins being their longest streak this season, but it is in avoiding losing streaks where this team has been effective, avoiding consecutive losses in regulation through 30 games. To do this despite all the man games lost is nothing short of amazing, and it speaks to the depth and veteran leadership in keeping the team on an even keel.

Three Stars

• First Star: Vitek Vanacek (1-0-0, 40 saves on 42 shots (.952 save percentage)).
• Second Star: Conor Sheary (2-1-3, plus-1, one game-winning goal, six shots on goal, eight shot attempts)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-1-3, plus-1, posted 274^th career power play goal, tying Dave Andreychuk for first all-time, 18 shots on goal, 22 shot attempts)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Kings at Capitals: December 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to Capital One Arena on Sunday evening to host the Los Angeles Kings…maybe.  Games are being postponed, players are entering COVID protocols at accelerated rates, and the league is trying to catch up.  That puts the schedule in a period of uncertainty for the time being.  And, from a purely self-interested hockey point of view, the timing is both good and bad for the Caps.  Postponement, or even a pause, could give the Caps a chance to get healthy, or at least healthier.  In their 5-2 win over Winnipeg on they were missing Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway, Trevor van Riemsdyk, and Anthony Mantha.  Nevertheless, the Caps go into Sunday’s game with a 13-3-3 record over their last 19 games, the best record in the league (by standings points earned) since November 8^th, when they started that run.

The Kings will wrap up a four-game road trip playing the back end of a back-to-back set that starts Saturday night in Carolina.  The Kings’ play has been uneven of late, going 5-5-4 going into Saturday’s contest after a promising 8-5-1 start to the season.  Over those 14 games, the Kings have displayed a respectable defense, averaging 2.64 goals allowed per game, 13^th in the league over that span.  But the offense had sputtered, averaging 2.57 goals per game, 23^rd in the league over the same stretch.

If there is a surprise among the skaters in those 14 games, it is Brendan Lemieux leading the team in goals per game (four in nine games/0.44 per game).  The five games he missed in this stretch were due to his being suspended for five games for biting Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk.  Lemieux is having a decent, potentially career year overall.  His five goals in 17 games already surpassed the four goals in 49 games he posted last season, split between the New York Rangers and the Kings.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 21 goals, which would far eclipse the 12 in 63 games he recorded in 2018-2019 in a season split between Winnipeg and the Rangers. 

There is, though, his odd early career experience.  Drafted by Buffalo in 2014 (second round/31^st overall), he was traded in February 2015 with a 2015 first-round draft pick, Joel Armia, Tyler Myers and Drew Stafford to the Winnipeg Jets for Zach Bogosian, Evander Kane and Jason Kasdorf.  He played parts of two seasons with the Jets before moving on, traded with a 2019 first-round draft pick and a 2022 fourth-round draft pick to the New York Rangers for Kevin Hayes.  He played parts of three seasons in New York before he was traded once more, to the Kings for a 2021 fourth-round draft pick.  What has also followed him around is a suspension history, suspended in November 2018 for two games after a hit on Florida’s Vincent Trocheck, again in July 2020 for two games after a hit on Colorado’s Joonas Donskoi, and finally his five-gamer for biting this season.  Lemieux is 0-2-2, minus-2, in nine career games against the Capitals.

Adrian Kempe leads the Kings in goals over their recent 5-5-4 run with six and is right behind Lemieux in goals per game (0.43).  This could be a breakout year for the six-year veteran.  Coming into this season, Kempe established himself as a consistent support scorer, recording double digits in goals for four consecutive seasons and at least 28 points over those four years.  This season, he has 11 goals in 28 games, a 32-goal pace.  And, he is not doing it with unsustainable shooting efficiency.  His 13.9 shooting percentage does represent a career best to date, but this is his fourth year in the last five in which he posted shooting percentage over ten percent.  His 16 points overall put him on a pace to finish with 47 points, which would also be a career best by a wide margin (he had 37 points in 2017-2018, his first full season with the Kings).  Los Angeles has gone well when Kempe lights the lamp, going 6-2-1 in the nine games in which he has goals, and they are 9-2-2 when he posted at least one point.  He comes into this game in a bit of a slump, though, with one point (a goal) in his last five games.  Kempe is 1-2-3, minus-3, in eight career games against Washington.

Jonathan Quick has been the Kings’ best player in their recent 5-5-4 stretch, going 4-2-3, 2.07, .934, with one shutout.  He is perhaps their MVP this season with an overall record of 8-5-4, 2.03 (sixth among 45 goalies with at least 500 minutes played), .935 (fourth), and two shutouts in 17 games played.  His is a far better record than backup Cal Petersen (5-5-1, 3.10, .893).  Quick, who will turn 36 in January, is probably on the back nine of his career, but he is, without a doubt, the best goaltender in Kings history.  He is first in franchise history in games played (683), wins (344), save percentage (.914; minimum: 2,000 minutes played), and shutouts (56).  Among group of goalies with at least 2,000 minutes played, Quick ranks fourth in goals against average (2.40).  And if anything, he has been much better on the road this season than at home, going 4-1-2, 1.55, .950, with one shutout in seven road games, while going 4-4-2, 2.37, .924, with one shutout at home.  Quick is on a personal six-game points earned streak (4-0-2, 1.63, .947, one shutout).  Quick is 9-6-0, 2.46, .913 in 15 career games against the Caps.

1.  The Kings are the only team in the league to average 2.50 goals or fewer per game scored (2.42) and allowed (2.50) in road games this season.

2.  Los Angeles has a hard time killing penalties on the road, their 72.2 PK ranking 30^th in the league.

3.  On the other side of special teams, the Kings are one of five teams to allow a league-high three shorthanded goals on the road and have done so in only 12 road games going into Saturday’s schedule.

4.  Only Winnipeg and Arizona have scored fewer first period goals in road games (seven apiece) than Los Angeles (eight). But on the other side, they have allowed only seven first period goals in road games, second-fewest in the league (Pittsburgh: six).

5.  The Kings play well within the rules in road games, their 82 penalty minutes being second-fewest in the league (Pittsburgh: 78).

1.  Not only do the Kings take few penalty minutes on the road, but the Caps take few on home ice, their 81 minutes in home games being fewest in the league.

2.  Only Toronto and Colorado have more wins on home ice when out-shooting the opposition (nine times apiece) than the Caps (eight).  The Caps are the only team in the league not to have lost in regulation when out-shooting opponents at home (8-0-2).

3.  The Caps are one of five teams at the top of the heap in wins when scoring first at home (eight wins).  However, they rank 28^th in winning percentage at home (1-2-2/.200) when allowing the first goal, tied for 26^th in the league.

4.  Washington ranks 28^th in the league in winning percentage in games decided on home ice by one goal (2-1-4/.286).

5.  The Caps are 6-1-1 in their last eight games on home ice, averaging 4.13 goals per game after a 3-1-3/2.86 goals per game start at Capital One Arena.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Matt Roy

With Drew Doughty in COVID protocol and Alexander Edler on the shelf with an injury, it falls to Matt Roy to anchor the Kings’ defense.  Roy, a seventh-round pick in the 2015 Entry Draft (194^th overall), is in his fourth season with the club.  He played 25 games in his first season with the Kings and followed that up with what was his “rookie” season in which he went 4-14-18, plus-16, and finished 13^th in Calder Trophy voting for top rookie.  He has not displayed a dominant offensive game yet, but he has gone bone dry in goal scoring this season with none in 28 games (he is 0-9-9, plus-5, overall).  He is getting more responsibility though, especially with the absences of Doughty and Edler.  He is averaging 21:42 per game in ice time, second to Doughty among Kings defenders.  Oddly enough, for a player with modest offensive numbers, he leads the defense in shots on goal by a wide margin with 72, compared to Edler’s 39 shots on goal.  No player in the league has more shots on goal without having recorded a goal so far this season going into Saturday’s schedule. Roy does have points in three of his last four games, the Kings going 3-0-1 in those contests.  Roy is 0-1-1, minus-3, in four career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Lars Eller

With Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov both in COVID protocol, Lars Eller has inherited the top line center position for the time being.  Eller’s talent as perhaps the most versatile center on the roster, a player who can play on any line, will be put to the test.  Eller is having a rather better than usual season overall (5-9-14, plus-11, in 24 games, a 16-29-45, plus-35 pace) in what is a rebound from his 8-15-23, minus-1, season in 44 games last year.  He has overcome a sluggish start (0-4-4, plus-2, in his first dozen games) to go 5-5-20, plus-9, in his last dozen games.  There has to be a bit of concern about his ice time, though.  In nine games in which he skated more than 18 minutes, the Caps are just 3-2-4 (11-2-2 when skating under 18 minutes), although he is 3-3-6, plus-3 in those games.  The circumstances are different, though.  His ice time will likely be inflated for the moment as a result of a combination of assuming first line responsibilities and penalty killing responsibilities (his 1:39 in shorthanded ice time per game ranks third among Caps forwards).  What Caps fans would like to see is for Eller to improve his numbers on home ice.  He is 4-5-9, plus-13, in 11 road games, but he is just 1-4-5, minus-2 in 13 games at Capital One Arena.  He is 3-2-5, minus-1, in 15 career games against the Kings.

In the end…

Los Angeles has been, and remains, one of those teams it is frustrating to play against.  They are not a flash-and-dash team, more of a zone-to-zone team that mucks things up on defense and grinds away on offense.  They can scored (four of more goals in five of their last nine games heading into Saturday), but they can struggle, too (four games with two or fewer goals in that same stretch).  For Washington, coming off perhaps  their most satisfying effort of the season in the 5-2 win in Winnipeg, their 60 minute effort in that game will be something they need to repeat on Sunday against a team that makes opponents work hard for what they get.

Capitals 4 – Kings 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 30: Capitals at Jets: December 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game road trip with a visit to Canada Life Center to face the Winnipeg Jets on Friday evening.  The Caps are coming off an almost comeback against the Chicago Blackhawks, who did their damage with three goals in 34 seconds in the second period and then held off the Caps with a 5-4 overtime win.  Nevertheless, the Caps are 12-3-3 in their last 18 games and trail the New York Rangers by a tiebreaker for the lead in the Metropolitan Division.  Winnipeg comes into this game having lost two in a row, a Gimmick loss to the Vancouver Canucks and a regulation loss to the Buffalo Sabres.  The Jets are 4-7-2 in their last 13 games.

The usual suspects in Jets scoring are at the top of the heap in that 13-game span for the Jets, all with 12 points apiece.  Blake Wheeler has his 12 points in only 12 of those games.  Now in his 14^th season, his first two-plus seasons with the Boston Bruins and the rest in Winnipeg, Wheeler is at or near the top in most offensive statistical categories.  For example, he is the all-time leader in assists (480), points (714), and even strength points (486),  With 230 goals, he is second only to Ilya Kovalchuk (328) in franchise history, second in even strength goals (176), second in power play points (209), second in game-winning goals (33), second in shorthanded goals (11), and second in Gimmick goals (19).  While he was on a decent ru putting up points, this has not been the easiest of seasons for Wheeler.  He has only one goal in 22 games, that coming in his most recent game, a 4-3 Gimmick loss to Vancouver on December 10^th.  The down side of that was that he suffered a knee injury that, while he is listed as “day-to-day,” could keep him out for “multiple weeks.”  He would be missed by the Jets against Washington, he carrying a career 5-14-19, plus-5, scoring line against the Caps.

Mark Schiefele is the second of the 12-point trio over the Jets’ last 13 games.  He is another of those players ranking high on the Jets’ all-time list in several statistical categories.  A first round (seventh overall) pick of the Jets in a loaded 2011 Entry Draft (22 players from that draft have over 200 career points; 20 have 100 or more goals), he ranks fourth in franchise history in goals scored (208), second in assists (316), third in points (524), first in plus-minus (plus-75), fourth in even strength goals (151), second in even strength points (391), third in power play goals (55), seventh in power play points (125), first in overtime goals (10), tied for third in game-winning goals (32), and first in on-ice goal differential (plus-91).  Like Wheeler, however, his stats this year are lagging.  He has a 7-10-17, minus-4, scoring line in 22 games (he missed five games on COVID protocol), but his 0.9 goals per 60 minutes is his first sub-1.00 goals per 60 since 2014-2015 (0.6), his 1.3 assists per 60 minutes is his lowest since 2013-2014 (2.2), and his 2.0 points per 60 minutes is his lowest since 2014-2015 (2.0).  He is 8-4-12, plus-6, in 14 career games against Washington.

Kyle Connor is the goal scoring member of this trio, and that is hardly a surprise.  Although he has not been a Jet long enough (six seasons) to be among the highest-ranking producers in Jets history, he already has three 30-plus goal seasons and almost surely would have had a fourth consecutive season last year but for the abbreviated schedule.  As it was, he still had 26 goals in 56 games.  He is well on his way to another 30-plus goal season this year with 18 goals in 28 games to date.  This is not to say he isn’t climbing up those offensive statistics lists in Jets history.  He ranks fifth in all-time goals scored (149) and is tenth in points (283).  His 39 power play goals is tied for seventh in team history, while his four overtime goals is tied for sixth, his 27 game-winning goals ranked fifth, and six Gimmick goals ranked ninth.  Connor is a leading indicator of Jets success this season when he records a goal.  They are 9-1-4 in the 14 games in which he scored at least one to date.  Connor is 3-3-6, even, in eight career games against the Capitals.

 

1.  Speaking of Connor, he has been held without a shot on goal only once this season.  Winnipeg won anyway, 4-3 in a Gimmick win against Dallas on November 2^nd, and yes, he did pot a goal in the freestyle competition.

2. The Jets are tied for next to last in the league in penalty killing on home ice (61.8 percent).  Fortunately for them, they are also tied for next to last (with Seattle) for the fewest shorthanded instances per game in their own rink (2.27).

3.  Winnipeg leads the league in second period goals scored on home ice (24).

4.  The Jets are very consistent in the goals they allow by period at home – 12 in each of the first and second periods, 13 in the third period.

5.  The Jets have trailed at the first intermission on home ice only three times in 14 games, but they lost all of them (0-2-1).

1.  Since the Caps shut out San Jose back on November 20^th, they have allowed three or more goals eight times in 11 games.

2.  Since posting a five-game points streak on the road in mid-November, the Caps are 2-3-0 in their last five road games, and one of the wins came via the Gimmick (3-2 over Buffalo last Saturday).

3.  The Caps have the third-worst power play on the road this season (10.8 percent). They do, however, have three power play goals in their last six road contests.

4.  Washington has allowed six power play goals in their last five road games, going 9-for-15 (60.0 percent) killing penalties on the road.

5.  Nevertheless, the Caps are still 8-3-3 on the road this season, tied for seventh in wins and tied for fifth (with “that team”) in road points percentage (.679).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Brenden Dillon

You remember Brenden Dillon, right?  Sturdy stay-at-home defenseman, plays with an edge, not going to provide much offense?  Played 66 games for the Caps (2-17-19, plus-13) before he was traded to the Jets for a second-round draft pick in 2022 and second-round draft pick in 2023?  Sure you do.  Well, he’s pretty much that same player for Winnipeg – 0-5-5, a defense-leading plus-9, 24 penalty minutes (most among Jets’ defensemen), 78 credited hits (most among defensemen), 14 giveaways (fewest among defensemen playing at least 15 games), eight takeaways (tops among defensemen), plus-9 goal differential at even strength (best among defensemen).  Dillon is never going to be much of an offensive contributor; his career high in goals is six in 2013-2014 with Dallas, while he hit 22 points in consecutive seasons with San Jose in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019.  He will challenge neither career high this season, absent divine intervention, but he seems to be just the very “Dillonesque” player Winnipeg traded for.  He is 1-2-3, minus-1, in 13 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicky’s back.  And, he returned in a very Backstrom-like way when he faced the Chicago Blackhawks after missing the first 28 games of the season in rehab for a hip injury.  An assist in his eighth shift of the game, feeding T.J. Oshie, who found Alex Ovechkin for the game’s first goal. It was the 270^th instance in his career that Backstrom assisted Ovechkin on a goal.  With Evgeny Kuznetsov currently in COVID protocol, Backstrom’s return comes not a moment too soon.  Washington has not fielded a complete and healthy center lineup in any game this season, and while they have not suffered much in terms of wins and losses to date, they can’t afford more attrition at the position.  On the other hand, the nature of Backstrom’s injury and length of absence (his last game action was last May in the playoffs) would seem to require his being eased back into the lineup.  He did skate more than 18 minutes in his first game back, 14:40 of which was skated at even strength (14:20) or shorthanded (0:20), which presumably would provide more wear and tear than time on the power play, where he is generally the quarterback from the right wing wall.  As much as his production, the ice time he gets – particularly in its mix – will be something to watch as Backstrom gets back in game shape.  Backstrom is 18-30-48, plus-6, in 48 career games against Winnipeg.

In the end…

Winnipeg has had a disappointing year overall, but they do have a 9-5-1 record on home ice so far this season with a 1.00 positive goal differential per game.  And while their penalty killing on home ice has been ghastly, they have a seventh-ranked power play (25.0 percent) at home.  And therein lies the danger for the Caps, who have allowed five goals in three of their last five road games after posting consecutive road shutouts on the west coast last month.  Shoring up that defense is the priority here.  Do that, and the Caps offense might be able to take advantage of a Jets team that allowed four goals in three of their last four home games.

Capitals 4 – Jets 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Capitals at Blackhawks: December 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Hog Butcher for the World,
Tool Maker, Stacker of Wheat,
Player with Railroads and the Nation's Freight Handler;
Stormy, husky, brawling,
City of the Big Shoulders…

Chicago, in addition to the vivid description by Carl Sandberg, is also home of the deep-dish pizza, The Loop, Italian beef sandwiches, and iconic sports franchises, including the Chicago Blackhawks, who the Caps will face at United Center on Wednesday night.  The Caps head to the Windy City with an 8-3-1 record in their last dozen games, while Chicago has alternated wins and losses over their last dozen games (6-6-0).

The Blackhawks have struggled in the offensive end in those 12 games, averaging only 2.25 goals per game (tied for 27^th over that period).  It is no surprise that Alex DeBrincat leads the team with six goals over those 12 games.  He is, after all, the team’s leading goal scorer this season (14).  The surprise is left-winger Brandon Hagel being next in line with four goals over the 12-game span.  Hagel was a sixth-round pick in the 2016 Entry Draft (159^th overall) by Buffalo, who could not sign him to a contract and left him to re-enter the draft in 2018.  He was undrafted, but he did secure a tryout with the Montreal Canadiens. He failed to make the parent roster, and after his 2017-2018 season with the Red Deer Rebels in Canadian juniors, he signed a three-year deal with Chicago.  He appeared in one game for the Blackhawks in 2019-2020, and then he went 9-15-24 in 52 games last season.  He finished tied for 14^th among rookies in goals scored, seventh in assists, and ninth in points.  He was one of three rookies last season with two overtime goals (Kirill Kaprizov and Cole Caulfield were the others). After a three-game goal streak in late November, he is 1-2-3, minus-3, in his last seven games.  Odd Hagel fact… he is 4-for-21 shooting (19.0 percent) both at home and on the road.  Hagel has faced the Caps once, without a point and with a minus-1 rating.

Seth Jones is expected to be the go-to guy on defense, and he has been that, leading the blueliners in goals (three), assists (20), points (23), and ice time (25:57).  Connor Murphy is a lesser known defenseman, but he trails only Jones in average ice time (21:55) and is tied for second in goals scored (two) among Chicago defensemen.  Murphy was a first round (20^th overall) pick of the Phoenix Coyotes in 2011 and played four seasons in the desert, going 13-36-49, minus-30, in 258 games with the Coyotes.  After the 2016-2017 season, he was traded with Laurent Dauphin to Chicago for defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson.  While a reliable double-digit point getter, that would seem to be Murphy’s ceiling, never having reached 20 points in his career (he had 19 for Chicago in 2019-2020).  What he has been is a bit injury prone in his career.  He has missed 44 games over four seasons with the Blackhawks prior to this one, his injuries including back (30 games in 2018), groin (12 games in 2019), hip (six games in 2021), and a concussion that cost him three games this season.  This season, Murphy finds himself with the worst goal differential, on ice, at even strength in his career (minus-11).  He is 1-1-2, plus-4, in 11 career games against Washington.

Chicago has employed six rookie skaters this season.  With Mike Hardman, the rookie leader in games played (19) reassigned to the AHL and Reese Johnson (18 games) laid up with a broken clavicle. Right winger MacKenzie Entwistle, who was called up from the AHL, is now the active team leader among Chicago rookies in games played (12).  He might have a name that sounds like a minor character in Downton Abbey, but he was a third-round draft pick (69^th overall) in 2017 by the Arizona Coyotes.  He never played for the Coyotes before being traded to Chicago with a fifth-round draft pick in 2019, Jordan Maletta, Andrew Campbell and Marcus Kruger for a third- round draft pick in 2019, Vinnie Hinostroza, Marián Hossa and Jordan Oesterle.  Got that?  Entwistle skated five games for the Blackhawks last season in his first NHL action, finishing with a 1-1-2, plus-1 scoring line in five games.  After posting a goal and a minus-4 rating in his first nine games this season, he is 1-1-2, even, in his last three games with the big club.  If he gets a sweater, this would be Entwistle’s first action against the Caps.

1.  Five of Chicago’s ten wins this season have come in extra time (two in overtime, three in the Gimmick).

2.  The Blackhawks struggle at home, going 5-6-1, 27^th in the league in points earned (11) and 25^th in points percentage (.458).  It is their lowest points percentage since 2003-2004 (.451).

3.  Chicago has the third-worst scoring offense on home ice so far this season (2.17 goals per game) and the third-worst power play (12.2 percent).

4.  Only the New York Islanders – in four fewer home games – have fewer third period goals on home ice (five) than Chicago (seven).

5. Only Pittsburgh and Calgary have fewer wins when allowing the first goal on home ice (neither has won such a game) than Chicago (one win in six instances).

1. The Caps have allowed 18 goals in their last three visits to Chicago, losing decisions by 7-1 and 8-5 margins before winning, 5-3, in their last visit.

2.  Trevor van Riemsdyk is the only one of 20 Capital skaters to appear in 10 or more games who does not yet have a goal.

3.  Tom Wilson is on a pace to finish the year with 46 assists.  His career high to date is 23 in 2019-2020.  And, he is tied for 25^th in the league in penalty minutes.

4.  The Caps are second in the league in first period goals scored on the road (16; Colorado has 23), and they are a plus-8 in goal differential on the road in the road in the first period.

5.  Washington is a top-ten team in the league in fewest goals allowed in the first period (eight goals/tied for sixth-fewest), second period (13/tied for seventh), and third period (11/tied for fifth).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Jonathan Toews

Three years ago, Jonathan Toews posted 35 goals in 82 games.  A career high.  He finished that season with 81 points.  Another career high.  But his fortunes have plummeted like a rock since then.  He was 18-42-60 in 70 games in 2019-2020, but then he missed the entire 2020-2021 season to Chronic Inflammatory Response Syndrome. 

While he has come back to appear in all 27 games to date for the Blackhawks this season, that comeback has been a struggle.  He did not score a goal in his first 25 games and had a minus-14 rating.  He has, however, posted a goal in each of his last two games (on a total of three shots).

One other area that seems to have suffered with Toews absence last season is defense.  In 13 seasons before this one, Toews received at least one Selke Trophy vote for best defensive forward in 12 of them (each of the last 12 seasons), was finalist for the trophy in four of them, and won the trophy in 2013. But this season he has been on ice for 22 even strength goals and is on a pace to be on ice for 66 goals at evens, which would be the third-highest total of his career.  He has a minus-11 goal differential at even strength that is, to date, the only “minus” differential of his career since the NHL started capturing this statistic in 2009-2010.  Toews is also a team-worst minus-13.  No doubt part of this is a general weakness on defense for the Blackhawks (3.19 goals allowed per game/23^rd in the league), but Toews would appear to have some catching up to do in the defensive end as well.  He is 10-9-19, minus-2, in 17 career games against the Caps.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson has been a top-echelon offensive defenseman for some time now.  From 2017-2018 to the present, Carlson ranks third among defensemen in goals scored (59), first in assists (222), first in points (281), first in points per game (0.90; minimum: 150 games), tied for third in even strength goals (44, with Roman Josi), first in even strength points (166), tenth in power play goals (15), first in power play points (114), and first in game-winning goals (13).  He is lurking near the top once in a number of categories again this season – goals (six/tied for fifth), assists (18/tied for sixth), points (24/tied for fifth), points per game (0.86/eighth; minimum: 15 games), power play goals (three/tied for second), power play points (eight/tied for sixth). 

Carlson even ranks tied for tenth in goal differential, on ice, among defensemen at even strength (plus-10), a bit surprising given the reputation attached to his play in the defensive end.  And speaking of that, the 21 goals against that he has been on ice for at evens is tied for 52^nd most in the league, fewer than Dougie Hamilton (25), Roman Josi (25), Seth Jones (28), Alex Pietrangelo (30), and Victor Hedman (31), among others.  One would not call this Carlson’s best season (yet), but it is squarely in line with his performance over the last four-plus seasons.  It is his fifth consecutive season averaging more than two points per 60 minutes, his fifth consecutive season averaging at least 1.5 assists per 60 minutes, his fifth consecutive season averaging at least 0.4 goals per 60 minutes.  Carlson is 3-8-11, plus-5, in 16 career games against Chicago.

In the end…

Fierce as a dog with tongue lapping for action, cunning as a savage pitted against the wilderness,

Bareheaded,
Shoveling,
Wrecking,
Planning,
Building, breaking, rebuilding…

Chicago is still “rebuilding,” but they are making progress, and the Capitals need to be mindful of that.  With three full days off since they defeated Buffalo last weekend, the Caps will either be bright eyed and bushy tailed or rusty.  It makes the game’s opening minutes something to pay attention to closely.

Capitals 4 – Blackhawks 2