The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 45: Capitals at Flyers, April 17

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals try to shake the stench off their 5-2 loss to the lowly Buffalo Sabres on Thursday when they travel to Philadelphia to meet the sinking Flyers in a 12:30 start at Wells Fargo Center.  The Flyers return home after splitting a two-game road trip, a 6-1 loss to the Caps in Washington and a 2-1 Gimmick win over the Penguins in Pittsburgh.

These teams are playing their second game in five days, so we are going to provide you with nuggets (not the last minute McNugget kind, which seems to have become a thing for Caps games) to amaze your friends and confound your enemies…

-- Home ice has meant little to the Flyers this season.  After going 5-1-0 at Wells Fargo Center to start the season, the Flyers are 4-8-3 in their last 15 games at home.  That is the fourth-worst home record in the league since February 1^st.

-- On the other side, the Caps have the third-best road record in the league by points percentage (14-6-2/.682).  Only Colorado (12-5-2/.684) and Toronto (14-5-1/.725) are better.

-- The Flyers have gone seven straight games on home ice without scoring more than three goals.  They haven’t scored more than three goals in a regulation win since February 24^th (4-3 over the New York Rangers).  Since then, they scored four goals on home ice twice, once in a 5-4 Gimmick win over Buffalo on March 9^th and again in a 5-4 loss to the Caps on March 13^th.

-- The Caps have scored four or more goals in seven of their last ten road games and have outscored opponents, 41-30 over those ten games.

-- The Flyers scored seven goals in the first game of the season series against the Caps (a 7-4 win).  They scored only nine goals in the last four meetings between the clubs.

-- The Caps have scored five or more goals in each of the last three games against the Flyers, all in wins.

-- Ten of 24 skaters to dress against the Caps this season have goals.  Scott Laughton has a quarter of the 16 goals scored by that group (four) to lead the team.  Eighteen skaters have points, led by Sean Couturier (seven).

-- Eleven of 24 skaters to appear against the Flyers this season have goals, led by Alex Ovechkin (six).  It might surprise some that Nic Dowd is second with three goals.  Ovechkin leads the Caps in points against the Flyers this season (nine).

-- Philadelphia converted two of 15 power play chances in five games against the Caps this season (13.3 percent).  The Caps converted five of nine chances in those five games.  The 55.6 percent power play is the best the Caps have against any team this season.  The Flyers’ 44.4 percent penalty kill is their worst against any opponent.

-- If Alex Ovechkin gets the game winning goal, he will tie Peter Bondra as the all-time leader in game-winning goals against the Flyers in Caps history (five).  If Nicklas Backstrom gets it, he will tie Ovechkin, Mike Ridley, and Kelly Miller for second place (four).

-- With two penalty minutes, Tom Wilson would pass Craig Berube (97) for fifth place on the all-time list of Capitals penalty minutes against the Flyers.  Four, and he would become the fifth player to reach the 100 penalty minutes mark as a Capital against Philadelphia.

-- If he gets the win in Philadelphia against the Flyers, Vitek Vanecek would become the 23^rd goalie in Caps history to record a win against the Flyers.  To date, he has one appearance against Philadelphia (0-0-0, 6.56, .714 in 37 minutes of play).  If Craig Anderson gets the win, he would be the 23^rd goalie in Caps history to beat the Flyers as a Capital (0-1-0, 5.27, .750, in one appearance lasting 23 minutes).

-- Ilya Samsonov has the best save percentage in Caps history against the Flyers (.932; minimum: 250 minutes).

-- Only one goalie in Flyers history has ten or more wins against the Caps (Ron Hextall: 25). Then again, he appeared in almost three times as many games against the Caps (44) as the next goalie on the wins list (Pelle Lindbergh, eight wins in 16 games).

-- From the wayback trivia machine… Wayne Stephenson, who finished his NHL career as a Capital, is the only goalie ever to appear in at least five games against the Caps and post a perfect record (7-0-0).  Not even Ken Dryden did it, when the Montreal Canadiens were perennial Stanley Cup contenders, and the Caps were perennial…well, something else.  But he came close (19-0-1).

In the end…

Perhaps all the pre-game attention on Nicklas Backstrom’s 1,000^th game was a distraction for the Caps in their 5-2 loss.  Perhaps it was not taking a weaker opponent as seriously as they should.  Perhaps it was just a bad night; it happens, even in a 56-game season.  Whatever the reason, recent history would suggest that the Flyers are a club against which the Caps can get well quickly.  But nothing is assumed at this level, and doing it two games in a row would be four points too many left on the table against teams the Caps have to beat as they prepare for a difficult stretch run after this game in which they face playoff eligible teams seven times in their last 11 games.

Capitals 5 - Flyers 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 44: Capitals vs. Sabres, April 15

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are the point of the season where season series are wrapping up, and some teams are fine tuning for the postseason while others are looking to the offseason to rebuild their rosters in hopes of being competitive next season.  This is where we are as the Washington Capitals prepare to host the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday in the eighth and final meeting of the clubs this season. 

The Caps come into this game with three straight wins, a streak that started with a 4-3 win over Buffalo last Friday, and hold the top spot in the East Division.  The Sabres have lost three of their last four, the last a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Boston Bruins after tying the game in the third period.

When the smoke cleared on Deadline Day, Sam Reinhart, who appeared on more than one “will he be moved” list, was still a Sabre.  As bad as the Sabres’ season has been, it is hard to fathom what the last month would look like without their leading goal scorer (14), leading point producer (26), one of their top power play performers (6-10-16), and one of two Sabres with two game winning goals this season.

Better days might be ahead for the Sabres, and Reinhart might be a part of it, but it has been a difficult seven seasons for the 25-year old since he was taken with the second overall pick in the 2014 Entry Draft.  In those seven seasons, Reinhart has 440 regular season games played, but none in the postseason.  He has 123 goals over that span (second to Jack Eichel (139), 281 points (second to Eichel (355), 42 power play goals (first), and 16 game winning goals (second to Eichel (25).  But he has also been on ice for 228 even strength goals over those seven seasons (second-worst among forwards to Eichel (349) and has a minus-58 even strength goal differential (worst among forwards).  The trade speculation does not seem to have worn on Reinhart too heavily; he is 3-3-6 in his last ten games.  Against the Caps this season, he is 0-3-3, minus-9 (worst against any team against which he played), and he is 5-7-12, minus-14 (worst against any team against which he played), in 21 games against the Caps in his career.

It has been no picnic for defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, either.  With 528 NHL games under his belt, he is about to crack the top ten in games played by a defenseman in Sabres history (Henrik Tallinder is tenth with 532), but he has no playoff games on his resume, either.  He has been an amazingly consistent producer for the Sabres in his eight seasons with the club after he was selected eighth overall in the 2013 Entry Draft.  In five seasons preceding this one, only once did he post fewer than 40 points, and that was in last year’s abbreviated season in which he had 33 points in 69 games.  In the last four seasons he posted five goals twice and six goals twice.  He has also been a minutes-eater from the blue line, averaging 25:11 in ice time in five seasons preceding this one. 

Ristolainen also plays with a physical edge.  He is the all-time leader in credited hits in Sabres history (a statistic that has been recorded only since 2005-2006), and it is not close.  He has 1,301 credited hits with Buffalo, almost 300 more than Marcus Foligno (1,023).  But he does so within the lines.  His 281 penalty minutes ranks 60^th all time in Sabres history, while his 0:31 penalty minutes per game ranks 83^rd of 123 players to skate in at least 200 games for Buffalo.  He comes into this game on a decent run of late, going 1-4-5, plus-8, in his last eight games.  Ristolainen is 1-4-5, plus-3, in six games against the Caps this season and 1-12-13, minus-5, in 22 career games against Washington.

If Jeff Skinner does not have the worst contract in the NHL, he is on a very short list.  Skinner is in the second year of an eight-year/$72 million contract.  It looked like a good idea at the time, Skinner coming off a 40-goal season with Buffalo in 2018-2019, but in two seasons under the new contract, he is 19-13-32, minus-33, in 98 games.  Of 15 forwards to dress this season with cap hits of $9.0 million or more, Skinner ranks 14^th in goals scored with five (Jack Eichel has two, but he appeared in only 21 games to date) and last in points (15).  And even when he does put up points, it hardly matters.  The Sabres are 1-4-0 in five games in which Skinner had a goal this season and 1-4-3 when he recorded a point.  The only statistic that seems to matter with Skinner this season in its relationship to wins is ice time, or lack of it.  Buffalo is 4-3-1 in the eight games in which he skated 12:29 or less, 5-21-5 in the 31 games in which he logged more ice time.  Skinner is 2-3-5, minus-1, in his last seven games, which qualifies as a hot streak in season to date.  Skinner is 0-1-1, minus-2, I seven games against the Caps this season and 12-15-27, minus-6, in 49 career games against Washington.

1.  Since the Sabres last reached the playoffs in 2011, they are 270-368-95, their .422 points percentage last in the league in that span.

2.  Buffalo has allowed more goals at 6-on-5 (11) than any team in the league.

3. The Sabres have scored only 64 5-on-5 goals this season, fewest in the league.

4.  Sam Reinhart’s team leading 14 goals ranks only tied for 44^th in the league.

5.  Buffalo has 26 first period goals scored this season, tied for fewest in the league, with Dallas.

1.  Through 43 games this season, the Caps have seven players with ten or more goals.  Through 43 games last season, the Caps had seven players with ten or more goals. 

2.  The Caps have not lost a game to Buffalo in regulation at home since November 22, 2014, a 2-1 loss.  Since then, they are 10-0-1 against the Sabres in Washington.

3.  Washington has the league’s best power play on home ice (36.8 percent).

4.  The Caps are tied with Colorado and the New York Islanders in one-goal wins on home ice (eight).  They are one of two teams not to have lost a one-goal game in regulation on home ice (Tampa Bay is the other).

5. The 14 goals in consecutive games scored by the Capitals against Boston and Philadelphia is their highest two-game total since January 2017 when they posted seven goals in consecutive games, an 8-7 overtime loss to Pittsburgh on January 16, 2017, and a 7-3 win over St. Louis on January 19, 2017.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Linus Ullmark

You are the number one goaltender for an historically poor team, yet you are 9-6-3, 2.63, .917.  The other three goaltenders to dress in your absence are a combined 1-19-4, 3.57, .891.  It is a career year in your six-year career to date, perhaps the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for a team that has not reached the postseason since 2011.

This is the season Linus Ullmark has had for the Sabres.  He has been remarkably consistent behind a weak defense, allowing more than three goals only times in 20 appearances to date.  The only thing that slowed him down this season was a 15-game absence in March for a lower body injury and a two-game absence for personal reasons in January.  The Sabres went 1-15-1 in the 17 games he missed.  And he has picked up where he left off before the injury.  In eight appearances since coming back, Ullmark is 4-2-1, 2.95, .915.  That record has him tied for fifth in wins over that span and 17^th in save percentage among 39 goalies with at least 200 minutes logged. It is unlikely the Sabres would have been contenders had he not missed those games, but that absence does seem to represent the difference between respectability and a lost season. 

But now, Ullmark’s availability is in question once more.  He lasted just 4:54 into the Sabres’ Gimmick loss to Boston on Tuesday before skating off with what looked like another lower-body injury following a stop on an innocent shot from Mike Reilly.  In the event he cannot go, and with Carter Hutton injured (his last game was March 22^nd), the goaltending duties might fall to Dustin Tokarski, who would be looking for his first NHL win sinc December 2015.  While Ullmark is 1-2-1, 2.68, .895 in four games against the Caps this season, 2-4-1, 2.95, .895 in seven career games against Washington, Tokarski is 0-1-0, 4.14, .879 in one appearance against Washington this season and 1-1-1, 2.57, .916 in his career against the Caps.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

It was a difficult start to the season for Dmitry Orlov (1-0-1, minus-3, in his first 18 games), but in 20 games since that rough start, he is 4-7-11, plus-12, in 20 games.  It is part of a very production run for Capitals defensemen, three of whom have recorded at least 11 points in that 20-game stretch (Orlov, John Carlson (5-13-18), and Justin Schultz (1-12-13).  No Capital defenseman has a minus rating in that span, and Orlov leads the group with his plus-12.  Only Carlson has more even strength points than Orlov over those 20 games (12 to Orlov’s 11), and Orlov has the best shooting percentage of the group (12.5 percent on 32 shots).

He is unlikely to reach last season’s production level (4-23-27, plus-5, in 69 games), but there are things in his overall season to date that are impressive.  For one, his five goals in 38 games is his best career goals-per-game (0.13) to date.  He is in the midst of a career year in shooting percentage (9.1 percent).  His 5.53 hits per 60 minutes is the second best average of his career (5.86 in 2011-2012).  His giveaways per 60 minutes (1.40) is a career low, while his takeaways per 60 minutes (2.06) is a career high.  When he puts up points, the Caps do well.  They are 9-1-0 when Orlov recorded at least one point.  And you want him getting minutes.  Unlike some other offensive defensemen, who get minutes shaved when their team is out front and protecting a lead, the Caps are just 2-5-0 when Orlov skated less than 17 minutes this season.  Orlov is 0-1-1, even, in five games against the Sabres this season and 1-7-8, plus-8, in 26 career games against Buffalo.

In the end…

The Caps have done what good teams do, pile up points against weaker division opponents.  They swept the eight-game series against the New Jersey Devils, and they have a chance at going 7-0-1 against the Sabres with this season-ending contest.  However, those records are deceptive.  The Caps had six one-goal wins over New Jersey in eight games (two in overtime), and they have four one-goal decisions in seven games against Buffalo (3-0-1, one of the wins in a Gimmick).  They might win, they should win, but don’t think a third straight rout in a foregone conclusion.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 2

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 43: Capitals 6 - Flyers 1

The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers renewed their regular season rivalry for the 228^th time on Tuesday night at Capital One Arena in Washington.  The Caps came into the contest trying for a third consecutive win for the first time in April, which would enable them to hang on to the top spot in the East Division.  The Flyers came into the game losers of three in their last four contests (1-2-1) and just 8-12-3 since March 1^st.  The Caps scored early and often, and breezed to a 6-1 win over the Flyers.

First period

Conor Sheary got the Caps on the board when from the left wing circle, Daniel Sprong found him cutting across the slot.  Sheary walked the puck clear of Jakub Voracek, and with goalie Brian Elloitt out of position, Sheary snapped a shot off a severe angle behind Elliott to make it 1-0, 7:07 into the game.

The Flyers tied it on a “what he taketh, and he giveth away” play by Ilya Samsonov.  After foiling a breakaway, he gave the puck away moments later from behind his own net, sending it up ice onto the stick of James van Riemsdyk.  His shot from the right wing circle was redirected by Sean Couturier up and over Samsonov at 8:45 to make it a 1-1 game.

Washington went to the power play when Shayne Gostisbehere was sent off for elbowing at 9:57.  Tom Wilson made the Flyers pay when Sheary threaded a pass out from two Flyers from in tight to Wilson on the right side, and he flipped it over the left shoulder of Elliott to make it 2-1, 11:32 into the period.  Anthony Mantha was credited with an assist for his first point as a Capital.

Nicolas Aube-Kubel took an interference penalty at the 15:46 mark, and it cost the Flyers.  The Caps added to their lead on the power play, Nicklas Backstrom taking a cross-ice feed from Alex Ovechkin on he right side and waited until Elliott committed and snapped it over his sprawled body at the 16:25 mark.

Less than two minutes later, it was 4-1.  It starter with a harmless enough looking shot from Carl Hagelin as he was backing toward the blue line at the right point.  It was blocked in front, but the puck made its way to John Carlson low in the left wing circle.  Carlson spotted Hagelin re-entering the play, skating down the middle in open ice.  Carlson fed him at the inside edge of the right wing circle for a one-timer that trickled between Elliott’s pads at the 18:21 mark.  That would close the scoring for the first period.

-- Washington outshot the Flyers, 19-9, and out-attempted them, 26-16.

-- Anthony Mantha and T.J. Oshie led the team with three shots apiece; Mantha, Oshie, and Carl Hagelin each had three shot attempts.

-- Nicklas Backstrom was 5-for-6 on faceoffs, while Nic Dowd was 3-for-3.

-- Tom Wilson led the team with two blocked shots.

Second Period

The Caps went a man short when Nic Dowd was called for cross-checking at the 6:26 mark of the period.  The Caps allowed one inconsequential shot on goal and killed the penalty.

The Caps then added to their lead when Anthony Mantha took a feed from T.J. Oshie in stride cutting across the middle, waited to get a shooting lane, and rifled a shot across his body over the glove of Elliott and into the top corner of the net at the 9:22 mark to make it 5-1, Caps.  It would be the only scoring in a quiet second period.

-- Washington outshot the Flyers, 7-6, in the second period but were out-attempted by the Flyers, 14-9.

-- T.J. Oshie had five shots on goal through two periods to lead the Caps; Oshie and Anthony Mantha each had five shot attempts through 40 minutes.

-- Nic Dowd and Evgeny Kuznetsov were the only Capitals without a shot attempt through two periods.

Third Period

Washington went to a power play early in the third when Robert Hagg was sent to the box for slashing at 3:27.  The Caps converted when Alex Ovechkin took a feed from Tom Wilson at the top of the left wing circle, settled the puck and wristed a laser that beat Elliott cleanly on the short side at 5:10 to make it 6-1, Caps.

Garnet Hathaway was penalized for tripping at 6:25 of the period.  Philadelphia managed one shot on the power play but no goal.

There would be no more scoring, and the Caps held on to first place in the East Division with a 6-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- This was the third straight game in which the Caps hit the Flyers for five or more goals (March 7: 5-3; March 13: 5-4).

-- With his second period goal, Anthony Mantha became the 20^th Capital to record at least one multi-point game this season.

-- Conor Sheary went 1-2-3, his first three-point game of the season and first since he had a goal and two assists against Tampa Bay in a 6-4 Buffalo loss to the Lightning on New Year’s Eve 2019.

-- Six players had multi-point games for the Caps.  In addition to Sheary and Mantha, there was Alex Ovechkin (1-2-2), Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2), Tom Wilson (1-1-2), and John Carlson (0-2-2).

-- Nic Dowd and Evgeny Kuznetsov finished the game with no shot attempts.

-- Washington outshot the Flyers, 32-30, while the Flyers won the shot attempts, 55-46.

-- Anthony Mantha led the team with six shots on goal. 

-- The Caps had a 37-28 edge in faceoff wins (56.1 percent); Nic Dowd was 12-for-15 (80.0 percent).

-- Ilya Samsonov ended a troublesome streak of four games allowing four or more goals, stopping 29 of 30 shots, half of those shots faced coming in the final period.

-- Washington is now 14-5-2 at home, 14-6-2 on the road.

In the end…

When the Caps beat – and beat up – the Boston Bruins, 8-1, in their previous game, it was a against a team decimated by injuries to the defense and goaltenders.  In this game, they beat a team that looks as if they are planning tee times for May.  Nevertheless, the Caps got two points in each game, and that is the only currency that matters.  Now, on to play the worst team in the league when the Buffalo Sabres visit on Thursday.  But this is no time to get a swelled head about their performance. 

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 43: Capitals vs. Flyers, April 13

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals embark upon the second half of their season series against the Philadelphia Flyers when they host the Flyers at Capital One Arena on Tuesday night.  Fresh off an 8-1 shellacking of the Boston Bruins, the Caps will be looking to post their first three-game winning streak in April.  On the other side, the Flyers are falling out of playoff contention.  Do not let the fact that they are still only four points out of a playoff spot fool you.  They have struggled mightily since March 1^st, and the coup de grace might have been inflicted on Sunday when they held a 3-2 lead against the Buffalo Sabres with just over three minutes left in their contest, yet lost, 5-3.

The Flyers are 8-12-3 since March 1^st, their .413 winning percentage ranking 24^th in the league.  Only New Jersey (7-12-4/.391) and Buffalo (4-15-3/.250) are worse among East Division teams in that stretch.  Scoring has been an issue, their 2.61 goals per game ranking 21^st in scoring offense over that span.  While they have had production from their big guns, they have lacked support in this bitter run.  Consider Kevin Hayes.  In 23 games since March 1^st, he is 4-5-9, minus-8.  More would be expected from a player in the second year of a seven-year/$50.0 million contract ($7.143M cap hit).  It is not that Hayes has been unproductive overall, his 0.61 points per game for the season being slightly higher than his 0.59 per game last year, his first with the Flyers.  It’s the timing.  Through February 28^th, he was the team’s third-leading goal scorer (seven) and point-getter (16) and played to a plus-6 rating.  Since then, though, he is fifth in goals on a club that has scoring issues (four, tied with five other players) and eighth in points (nine).  And his ice time has started to reflect the diminished production.  He averaged 19:01 in ice time through February 28^th but has averaged just 17:20 since March 1^st and just 16:14 in his last 11 games.  Hayes is 0-2-2, minus-1, in four games against the Caps this season, 7-10-17, even, in 28 career games against Washington.

If Kevin Hayes’ production dropped in the post-March 1^st period for the Flyers, Michael Raffl’s production has been almost non-existent.  His in another case of two seasons broken up into the before and after March 1^st period.  In 18 games through February 28^th to start the season, he was 3-4-7, plus-1, and average d 13:45 in ice time per game.  Since then, though, he is 0-1-1, minus-6, and has seen his ice time drop to 11:28 per game.  And, he was scratched in the Flyers’ 5-3 loss to the Sabres on Sunday, fueling speculation he could be moved at the trading deadline.  However, a contender taking on a 32-year old player with a $1.6 million annualized cap hit, even on an expiring contract would seem to be a stretch other than as ballast in a trade with bigger pieces. Once upon a time, Raffl was on a line with Jakub Voracek and Claude Girous, but that was quite some time ago.  Over his last five seasons he has 38 goals in 287 games.  That after posting 43 in 217 games over his first three seasons with the Flyers.  His role now seems to be geared more to defense and penalty killing as a bottom six forward than as a reliable offensive contributor.   It would seem that if he is not moved at the trading deadline, he will be playing in another city come next season.  Raffl is 0-2-2, plus-4, in one game against the Caps this season and 4-8-12, plus-2, in 28 career games against Washington.

Is it growing pains, or does he suffer from “Carey-itis?”  This is a question that could linger in the minds of the Flyers’ brain trust into the off-season with respect to goaltender Carter Hart.  In his first two seasons, Hart was 40-26-4, 2.59, .915, with one shutout in 74 games played.  He was going to be the goaltender the Flyers were searching for since Ron Hextall hung up his mace and shield…uh, skates and pads in 1999.  There were 28 goalies to dress for the Flyers since Hextall retired, none of them “The One.”  Until Hart.  But this season has been a disaster.  Of 48 goalies with at least 750 minutes played, Hart ranks 47^th in goal against average (3.79, ahead of only matt Murray (3.84)).  His .872 save percentage is dead last in that group.  He ranks 48^th among 49 goalies appearing in 15 or more games in even strength save percentage (.888, ahed of only Jonathan Quick (.886)).  He has not won consecutive games since the end of January and has won consecutive games only twice this season.  He is without a win since March 18^th (0-5-2, 4.03, .850).

And this raises the question, is Carter Hart suffering the pangs of a learning curve that is progressing in fits and starts, or has he been “solved” in the manner Jim Carey was with the Capitals after winning a Vezina Trophy in 1996.  For you younger folks, Carey was 53-30 with 12 ties, 2.22, .908, with 13 shutouts in his first two seasons with the Caps, topped with that Vezina Trophy.  By the end of his third season, he was a Boston Bruin, and he was out of the NHL after the 1998-1999 season.  Hart has a 1-2-0, 3.63, .883 record against Washington this season and a 2-3-1, 2.89, .907 record against the Caps for his career to date.

1.  Since March 1^st, the Flyers have six players with plus-minus ratings worse than minus-10.  They have four in the bottom-ten in the league over that span – Travis Sanheim (minus-18, worst in the league), Philippe Myers (minus-15), Nolan Patrick (minus-14), and Joel Farabee (minus-13).

2.  The Flyers have allowed 69 5-on-5 goals since March 1^st, well ahead of Buffalo (57) for most 5-on-5 goals allowed in that span.

3.  Philadelphia gets behind the eight-ball early in this post-March 1^st run of woe.  The allowed 34 first period goals (most in the league) and have trailed first in 14 games, second-most behind Buffalo (15).

4.  The Flyers have eight wins since March 1^st.  All of them are one-goal wins, four of them in extra time.  They are the only team in that span whose only wins are of the one-goal variety.

5.  The Flyers are one of two teams in the league without a shorthanded goal this season.  Detroit is the other.

1.  The Caps are 21-7-1 since February 16^th, the second-best points percentage (.741) in the league (Colorado: .776).  Part of that success is an underrated penalty kill, which is fifth in the league over that period (86.8 percent).

2.  Over that same period, the Caps have been a “low event” team.  They are only club in that span averaging fewer than 29 shots on goal (28.0) and fewer than 29 shots on goal allowed (28.2).

3.  The Caps have 71 5-on-5 goals over that period, second-most in the league (Colorado: 75).

4.  One cannot help but think that as successful as the Caps have been over their last 29 games, they would have been more so had they allowed fewer than the 35 third period goals they allowed in this stretch, tied for third-most in the league.

5.  The Caps have been careful with the puck over this period, averaging 7.87 takeaways per 60 minutes in their 21-7-1 run while suffering only 7.25 giveaways per 60 minutes.  Their 0.62 per game differential of takeaways to giveaways ranks fifth in that span, one of only six teams in positive territory.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Shayne Gostisbehere

By the time you read this, defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere might be the property of another team.  He’s been waived (unclaimed) and missed four games in the Flyers’ 8-12-3 slump since March 1^st, but he still has 11 points in 19 games (6-5-11), leading the Flyer defensemen in that span in goals (six) and points per game (0.58).  He is a minus-8 over that same span, but that is almost Norris-worthy, given that two of the eight defensemen to dress over those games are minus-15 or worse (Philippe Myers/minus-15 and Travis Sanheim (minus-18)).  He is the only defenseman with any power play goals over those 23 games (three) and is, in fact, the only Flyer defenseman with any power play goals this season (four).  Gostisbehere has already passed his goal production of last season (five) and points (12) with his 8-7-15 scoring line to date overall.

The problem for Gostisbehere is that after a 13-52-65, plus-10 season in 2017-2018, his offensive production has been in decline.  His 22-42-64, minus-25 record over the last three seasons is 12-23-35, minus-14 on an 82-game basis.  Gostisbehere is fourth on the all-time list of Flyers’ defensemen in goals (59, tied with Behn Wilson), fifth in points (214, also tied with Wilson), third in power play goals (26, tied with Tom Bladon), fourth in power play points (150), and third in game-winning goals (11).  It remains to be seen whether he will add to these numbers after 3:00 pm on Monday.  Gostisbehere is 1-1-2, minus-5, in four games against the Caps this season, 2-8-10, minus-2, in 20 career games against Washington.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

If you have ever studied or performed music, chances are you have come across or become familiar with the term “brio.”  The term is usually used as an instruction to a performer, meaning to play with “enthusiastic vigor.”  Does any term capture in fewer letters, let alone words, the style of play of T.J. Oshie?  If you search on images of Oshie, you find that on ice, when he is not celebrating a goal, he has a look of ferocity and determination.  At age 34, that spirit seems undiminished.  Now in his sixth year as a Capital after spending seven seasons with the St. Louis Blues, he has 14 goals in 41 games, his third straight season averaging more than a third of a goal per game and fifth in six seasons in Washington.  His 33 points in 41 games put him on a pace for 0.80 points per game, the second-highest average of his career (0.82 in 2016-2017 with Washington).

What sets this season apart for Oshie is the power play.  He has nine power play goals this season, tops on the club and within two of his career high (11 in 2015-2016 in his first season with the Caps).  If Oshie was to lead the club in power play goals this season, it would be the first time a Capital other than Alex Ovechkin did since Alexander Semin had 17 power play goals in 2006-2007 (Ovechkin had 16).  Oshie has been hot in this regard of late, posting four power play goals in his last eight games, part of an overall strong scoring run of 6-3-9, plus-2, over those eight games.  Oshie recorded his 600^th NHL point in the Caps’ 8-1 win over Boston on Sunday night.  He is the 34^th player to record 600 or more points since he entered the league in 2008-2009. Oshie is 0-2-2, even, in three games against the Flyers this season, 2-5-7, plus-3, in seven career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

These are two teams going in opposite directions.  The Caps are fine-tuning their game and playing for postseason seeding. The Flyer are left wondering what went wrong after an 11-4-3 start through February.  If pride is a thing in hockey, and there is no small number of folks who think it is, the Flyers have incentive to make a game of this.  An embarrassing loss to the worst team in the league, facing a long-time rival against whom they have three straight losses.  For the Caps, it is a matter on not suffering a post-Bruin hangover, spending too much time admiring the mental image of putting up eight goals on a strong, but decimated team.  This could be a good game for fans to watch, to see if the Caps have learned any lessons about taking a team too lightly (within games or against a weak opponent) or losing focus.

Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

 

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 13

With Week 13 in the books for the Washington Capitals, they are stuck in cruise control.  Not the breezy cruise control of going 75 miles and hour down a deserted desert highway, but more like doing 35 in the left lane of the Interstate.  Not good, and frankly, rather annoying.  So, what did happen?  Let’s take a look.

Record: 2-2-0

That makes two straight weeks without a winning record.  The Caps had three straight in Weeks 4-6, and with the last two weeks, they are the five non-winning weeks of the year for the club.  They sandwiched a pair of closer-than-they-should-have-been wins against teams out of the playoff running around a pair of tough losses to opponents, either of which they might fact in the postseason.  The losses are part of what is a disturbing trend that is emerging with club, that being their weak recent record against playoff-eligible teams:

• 0-2-0 vs Boston in their last two meetings (Caps are 2-3-0 for the season, both wins in extra time)
• 0-2-0 vs the Islanders in their last two meetings (gave up eight goals in one, one goal in the other, and lost both contests)
• 2-1-3 vs Pittsburgh this season (although the Caps do have two wins in their last three meetings, the loss in overtime)

It is not a record inspiring confidence going down the stretch, and the Caps will play these three teams a total of seven times in their last 14 games (Islanders three times, Penguins twice, and Bruins twice).  

Offense: 2.75/game (season: 3.32 / 5th)

It was a less than average week on offense for the Caps, but they did play two of the stingiest defensive teams in the league in the New York Islanders (2.32 goals allowed per game/second best in the league) and Boston (2.46/fifth).  It does not make the Caps scoring two goals against those teams any less disappointing, just not entirely unexpected.  The 1-0 shutout at the hands of the Islanders was the first time this season that the Caps were shutout, the 30^th team to finally buy a bagel (Ottawa is the last remaining team; go figure)., and the two goals combined against the Isles and the Bruins is the lowest consecutive games goal total for the Caps this season.

Alex Ovechkin led the team in goals (three), points (five), and shots on goal (14) for the week.  T.J. Oshie also chipped in a pair of goals as the only other multi-goal scorer for the Caps.  Oshie, along with defensemen Brenden Dillon and Justin Schultz, had four-point weeks for the club.  In all, the Caps had eight players with goals, 13 with points.  It was not a bad week for balance, but what stood out was Tom Wilson being absent from both lists.  At week’s end, he was without a point in five consecutive games.

At the other end, it was good to see Jakub Vrana get a crooked number in the goal column.  It was his first goal in 14 games dating back to March 11^th.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 3.00 / T-18th)

The number of the week: “35.8.”  That was the average shots per game allowed by the Caps in Week 13.  Only the St.Louis Blues and New York Rangers allowed more (36.3).  It was certainly an unexpected development for a team that started the week having allowed the 12^th-fewest shots on goal per game in the league (29.0).  And, they did against the clubs who ranked fourth (Boston: 32.4), 15^th (New Jersey: 29.6), 23^rd (the Islanders/29.2), and 28^th (Buffalo: 27.9) in the league.  It was no better in shot attempts, where the Caps allowed 196 shot attempts at 5-on-5 in four games, more than any team in the league except Dallas (211).  Their minus-34 in shot attempt differential at fives was tied for fifth worst in the league for the week with the New York Rangers.

It was a difficult week in the defensive end for Caps at the top of the offensive food chain.  Alex Ovechkin – on ice for six even strength goals against.  John Carlson for five.  Dmitry Orlov for four.  Only Jakub Vrana and Daniel Carr were spared being on ice for an even strength goal scored against.

Goaltending: 3.05 / .916  (season: 2.79 / .904 / 2 shutouts)

It was a tale of two goalies, and at the end of the week, the tale was muddled.  Ilya Samsonov, who the Caps would seem to like take the number one goaltending job by the throat for the stretch run and the postseason, instead grabbed little but air in going 1-1-0, 4.08, .887 in two appearances.  It was a case of deteriorating performance through the course of games for Samsonov, who posted a .912 save percentage in the first periods of games, .905 in the second periods, and .813 in third periods.  He is stuck in his own rut, going 3-3-0, 3.54, .877 in his last six appearances.  Related to the shot on goal issue in the previous section, Samsonov’s loss to Boston this week was his first loss this season when facing more than 30 shots on goal (4-1-0), although is other numbers in such games does not match his record (3.22 GAA/.908 SV).

Vitek Vanacek is the goalie who won’t go away and accept a diminished role.  He has had his moments of adventure this season, a little too scrambly at times and with issues about rebound control, but there he was in Week 13 – 1-1-0, 2.03, .944.  He did it against the Islanders and Sabres, not among the elite scoring teams in the league (3.00 and 2.14 goals per game, ranked 15^th and 31^st, respectively entering the week).  But you don’t pick the opponents you face.  Vanecek was consistent across the periods for the week with first/second/third period save percentages of .952/.947/.938 for the week.  He is building enough of a resume (11-4-1 (one no decision), 2.25, .918 in his last 17 appearances) that he might be creating at least a mini-controversy of who gets the net as his own going forward.

Power Play: 3-for-13 / 23.1 percent (season: 24.0 percent / 7th)

The Capitals had a respectable number of power play chances, an unusual outcome for a team that ranks 28^th in power play chances per 60 minutes for the season overall (2.54).  In Week 13, the Caps averaged 3.25 chances per game, eighth-best in the league.  It is the second-most number of power play chances for the Caps in any week this season, topped only by the 14 chances they had in Week 6, coincidentally a 2-2-0 week.  The had more than half of their chances (seven) against Boston on Thursday, a season high in power play opportunities in a single game.

The two power play goals that the Caps had in their 4-2 loss to Boston on Thursday was their fifth multi-power play goal game of the season and first since March 16^th, when they had a pair against the New York Islanders in a 3-1 win in Washington. 

Alex Ovechkin had a pair of power play goals in Week 13, T.J. Oshie recording the other one.  The Caps had a tight circle of power play shot makers, five players in all recording shots on goal with the man advantage: Ovechkin (four), Evgeny Kuznetsov (three), John Carlson (three), Nicklas Backstrom (two), and Oshie (one).

There was a symmetry in the Caps’ power play in Week 13.  Thirteen chances, 13 shots on goal, but 13 shots in 16%6 of power play ice time is a shots-per-minute number that could be improved.

Penalty Killing: 12-for-13 / 92.3 percent (season: 83.1 percent / 24th)

On the other hand, 13 shorthanded situations in a four-game week had to contribute to the Caps’ break-even record.  Like the power play, the number of situations was the second-most of the season, topped only by the 15 shorthanded situations they faced in Week 3, although the Caps were 3-0-1 in Week 3. Unlike the power play, which had most of its chances in a single game, the Caps spread out this misery a bit more – four shorthanded situations against New Jersey to start the week, followed by two against the Islanders, four against Boston, and three against Buffalo to end the week. 

The Caps allowed only one power play goal on 17 shots taken by opponents on the power play for the week, and doing so in 22:45 of penalty killing ice time is a good shots-to-minutes ratio.  But more than 20 minutes spent killing penalties is a result not hoped to be repeated.

Faceoffs: 107-for-241 / 44.4 percent (season: 48.7 percent / 23rd)

It was almost a uniformly bad week in the circle for the Caps (we will get to the almost part in a moment).  A team that had been making some recent improvements on one of the most basic plays took a big step back in Week 13.  Their 44.4 percent success rate was fourth-worst in the league for the week and was almost five percentage points lower than the 49.2 percent with which they came into the week.

It was worse by zone.  The Caps won only 40.5 percent of their offensive zone draws for the week, and that number was pulled down by Nicklas Backstrom (40.0 percent), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (29.6 percent), the key contributors in the offensive zone.  The Caps did better in the defensive end, finishing only a couple of wins short of 50 percent on 81 draws.

Now, to the “almost” part.  If the Caps got one thing right, it was “specialty” faceoffs.  Nic Dowd took only three offensive draws, but took 40 in the defensive end, winning 18 (45.0 percent), putting him two wins short of a 50 percent week.  On the other sie, T.J. Oshie took only three defensive zone faceoffs, but he took 12 in the offensive end, winning eight, the only Capital taking more then ten offensive zone draws who won more than 44 percent.

Goals by Period:

It was a close week on a period-to-period basis, the Caps not having a goal differential of more than two goals, plus or minus, in any of the periods.  But there was that third period thing again.  Five of the 12 goals allowed by the Caps in the four games came in the third period.  They came into the week having allowed the sixth-highest number of third period goals in the league (46) and finished the week tied for the third-highest number of third period goals allowed (51, with Chicago).

Year-over-Year:

The Caps are starting to track closely with their 2019-2020 counterparts, and not in the best way.  Consider the records.  Through 41 games last season, the Caps were 27-9-5, the best record in the league, but only 3-4-0 in the seven games leading up to that point.  This year’s club is 26-11-4, fifth-best record in the league and best in the East Division, but yes, just 3-4-0 in their last seven games.  And we know how last season worked out.  One thing to think about is effectiveness versus efficiency.  The Caps have only seven fewer goals scored overall at this point compared to last season, so on a goals per game effectiveness basis, things are not much different.  But are they making defenses work hard enough?  They have 169 fewer shot attempts at fives at this point compared to last season, roughly four per game or one per period.  It does not sound like a lot, but the margins for success and failure in the league are thin.

In the end…

The Caps are treading water, perhaps the combination of the unique nature of this season (late start, COVID threats hanging over teams), what would normally be the mid-season doldrums, and the Caps age issues) causing a lethargic walk through this part of the schedule.  If so, it is something that the Caps need to snap out of.  In their last 15 games, starting Sunday in Boston, the Caps play eight against currently playoff-eligible teams.  Add to that a pair of games against the New York Rangers, who have given the Caps fits this season, and it is a difficult stretch run to come.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-2-5, minus-4, two PPG (passed Brett Hull for second place all-time in power play goals), 14 shots, 25 shot attempts, eight credited hits, no giveaways, three takeaways (tied for team lead))
• Second Star: T.J. Oshie (2-2-4, even, one PPG/two PPP, three shots on goal, nine shot attempts)
• Third Star: Brenden Dillon (1-3-4, even, second two-point game of the season vs. Buffalo, 11 credited hits, four blocked shots)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 42: Capitals at Bruins, April 11

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head to the road once more after a brief stopover at home when they take on the Boston Bruins on Sunday evening at TD Garden.  Washington is coming off a closer than expected 4-3 win in Buffalo against the Sabres on Friday night, while the Bruins will be playing in back half of a back-to-back set of games after visiting Philadelphia to face the Flyers on Saturday afternoon.

Little has changed since we took a look at these two teams last Thursday, but here are a bakers’ dozen of nuggets we can serve up to amaze your friends and confound your enemies…

-- The Caps are 2-3-0 against the Bruins this season, but they have yet to beat the Bruins in regulation time.  They beat Boston in Washington, 4-3, in overtime on January 30^th in Washington and 2-1, in a Gimmick, on March 3.

-- Washington has wins in each of their last three trips to extra time – the freestyle win over Boston on March 3^rd, a 5-4 overtime win against New Jersey in Washington on March 9^th, and 2-1 over the Devils on April 2^nd in New Jersey.

-- The Caps have had their defense and goaltending woes lately, but this is not a team that has had to depend on air-tight defense to win.  In 24 games in which they allowed three or fewer goals, Washington is 21-2-1 (7-1-1 when allowing three goals).

-- After a stretch of road games from February 16^th through March 15^th in which the Caps went 8-1-0 on the road, the Caps are 3-3-0 in their last six road contests.  The allowed four or more goals in four of those six games and 22 overall (3.67 goals allowed per game).  There is “not air tight,” and there is “open door.”

-- The Caps have fallen into a run-and-gun rut of the road.  They scored four or more goals in three of their last six road games (13 in all) but allowed 15 goals in those three games.

-- Washington is the only team in the league with 100 5-on-5 goals scored this season.  Colorado is season with 93.

-- After allowing four or more goals in three straight games (13 total), the Bruins have allowed three or fewer in their last three games (seven in all).

-- Starting with the 2010-2011 season in which they won the Stanley Cup through last season, Boston is one of two teams with nine 40-plus win regular seasons (Pittsburgh is the other).  That would be all nine seasons over that period in which the league has at least 65 games on its schedule.  The Bruins have been a model of consistency.

-- Boston has employed 32 skaters so far this season.  Only Nashville has dressed more (34).  Colorado and San Jose have also dressed 32 skaters this season through Friday. 

-- Boston has only 61 5-on-5 goals scored this season, third-fewest in the league.  This is due in no small part to the Bruins having played only 37 games so far (through Friday), tied with Vancouver and Montreal for fewest in the league, but this is still a surprising result.

-- In the event Tuukka Rask cannot play, the Bruins will likely dress Jeremy Swayman and Dan Vladar as goaltenders for this game.  The two have a combined six games of NHL experience (four for Vladar, two for Swayman).  They have a combined record of 4-1-1, 2.17, .932 in their six games.

-- With one assist (if he does not record it on Saturday), Brad Marchand will move into a tie for tenth-place all-time with Ken Hodge on the Bruins’ assist list (385).  One game-winning goal, and he ties Ray Bourque (60) for fourth-place all-time with the Bruins.

-- We will leave you with this question.  Was Peter Laviolette taking a calculated risk in the Buffalo game with this game (not to mention a rough schedule ahead) in mind?  Consider ice times against the Sabres:

• Alex Ovechkin - 14:08 (seven shifts in the first period, only one over 42 seconds/3:59 total)
• T.J. Oshie - 13:02 (eight shifts in the first period, one over 48 seconds/4:46 total)
• Nicklas Backstrom - 14:16 (five shifts in the first period/4:04 total)

At the other end…

• Carl Hagelin - 18:16
• Nic Dowd - 18:15
• Garnet Hathaway - 15:22

Was it a case of giving top line players a bit of a break against a weaker team with all the minutes they have logged this season?  It is for minds wiser than mine to ponder.

In the end…

A pair of tough losses, a grind-it-out win against a weak team, and now a rematch against a team trying to hang on to the last playoff spot in the East Division.  Boston is not a extraordinarily successful team on home ice (10-5-3/.639 points percentage/fourth in the East), especially for a playoff hopeful.  The Caps actually have a better road record (13-6-2/.667/first in the East and second in the league) than Boston has at home.  But this is the Caps’ seventh road game in their last eight contests, part of a stretch of 11 road games in 15 games, and perhaps the traveling has gotten burdensome.  It is another matter of grinding one out, and this is a difficult team to do that against.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 41: Capitals at Sabres, April 9

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Over a 21-game stretch from February 16^th through March 28^th, the Caps were next to unbeatable.  Their 17-3-1 record over that span was, far and away, the league’s best, four standings points better than four other teams and with a points percentage of .833, almost 100 percentage points clear of the next best teams (Colorado, Minnesota, and the New York Islanders, all at .738).  They were top-five in scoring offense (3.38 goals per game/fourth), to-five in scoring defense (2.29, tied for second with Minnesota and the Islanders.  Only three teams allowed fewer shots on goal per game than the 26.6 allowed by the Caps.  They even won more than half of their faceoffs (50.4 percent).

And then, things came to a screeching halt. 

Since the Caps lost to the Rangers in New York on March 30^th, the Caps are 2-4-0.  Only four teams have a worse points percentage over that span than the Caps (.333), they are tied for 19^th in scoring offense (.250 goals per game), 28^th in scoring defense (3.83 goals allowed per game), they allowed almost six more shots per game (32.2), they can’t hold leads (1-2-0 when scoring first, 1-1-0 when leading after two periods), and they struggle with possession (46.6 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5/22^nd).  They have been outscored, 10-2, in third periods.  No team has allowed more third period goals in that span, and their minus-8 goal differential is worst in the league.

One might thing that the problems are a product of a schedule over that period heavily weighted to road games, five of the six in all to a 2-3-0 record, but this club was 7-1-0 on the road during their 17-3-1 run preceding this slump.  Perhaps it was strength of schedule, the Caps going 0-3-0 in the three games against playoff-eligible teams (two losses to the Islanders, one to Boston), but the Caps were 4-1-1 against playoff eligible in their 17-3-1 run.

Which brings us to Friday night and a visit to Buffalo to face the Sabres.  If the Caps cannot get well, or at least better, against this team, the trading deadline and whatever deals the Caps make might be irrelevant.  The Caps are 5-0-1 against the Sabres this season, outscoring them by almost two full goals per game (3.83 for/2.00 against).  Their power play is 4-for-9 in the six games.  They have scored first in five of the six games (4-0-1), and they are undefeated in the four games in which they took a lead into the third period.  They haven’t trailed the Sabres at any intermission in the six games and have allowed only two first period goals in the six games.  The Caps have out-scored the Sabres, 17-6, at 5-on-5.

1.  Don’t give up on Buffalo.  After going 0-15-3 from February 25^th through March 29^th, the Sabres are 3-1-1, although all five of those games were played against team out of the playoff mix (New Jersey and the Rangers twice, and Philadelphia).  That is tied with the Boston Bruins for ninth-best record in the league over that span (both 3-1-1/.700 points percentage).

2.  Buffalo outscored opponents over that five-game run, 18-15.  The 18 goals scored is tied for second in the league over that period.

3.  Your leading goal scorers over those five games for the Sabres?  Brandon Montour and Casey Mittelstadt, with three apiece.  Mittelstadt and Kyle Okposo lead in points with five apiece.

4.  Eighteen of the 20 skaters to dress for the Sabres in their 3-1-1 run have points.  Matt Irwin and Tobias Rieder are the only ones shut out.

5.  The shots on goal leader in those five games is Tage Thompson.  He has had an impact in limited duty – 3-3-6, minus-2, with 47 shots on goal in 21 games.  Four of those six points have come over his last six games.

1.  The Caps have goals from nine of 20 skaters in their recent 2-4-0 slide, but it is who does not have one that jumps out – Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Lars Eller, Jakub Vrana.  That quartet accounts for 37 of the 132 goals scored by the Caps this season (28.0 percent).

2.  Wilson’ drought is of special note.  Over those six games without a goal, he is tied for the team lead in shots on goal with Alex Ovechkin.

3.  John Carlson has maintained a semblance of productivity, going 3-36 over the six games, leading the team in points.  T.J. Oshie leads the team in goals over that span with four.

4.  No Capital over those six games is a “plus” player.  Daniel Carr is the only one as high as “even,” and that is with only one game played.

5.  Jakub Vrana will be looking to end a 13-game streak without a goal, if he dresses for this contest (he dressed for only four of the six games in this slump).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Kyle Okposo

There is a “what if” aspect to the career of Sabres’ forward Kyle Okposo, mostly a matter of “what would career have looked like without all the injuries?”  And not just a game here or there, but chunks of time.  Six times in his career he was shelved for ten or more games due to injury, from the 13 games he missed in 2008 to an arm injury to ten games for a concussion in 2019.  In all, Okposo has missed 147 games to illness or injury in his 14-year career.  Even with the injuries, Okposo has been a productive, 20-30-50 level of scoring type of player in five seasons with the Sabres and nine with the New York Islanders.  Even with the gaps in his resume due to injuries, Okposo ranks highly among his cohort in the 2006 Entry Draft, an draft at the top of the board that included Jordan Stall, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, and Phil Kessel as the forwards picked ahead of him (Okposo was taken seventh overall by the Islanders).  He ranks 12^th in games played (831), tenth in goals (198), eighth in assists (320), and ninth in points (518).  On the other hand, he and Kessel are tied for the worst plus-minus rating in that draft class (minus-116).

His production has dropped in his five years in Buffalo, although a 16-25-41 scoring line is still respectable on an 82-game basis.  For much of this season, however, the mileage, not to mention the difficult season the Sabres have had, seemed to have taken its toll. Okposo is just 2-10-12, minus-3, in 31 games this season.  On the other hand, he is 2-7-9, plus-3, in his last nine games, posting at least one point in eight of those games.  Okposo is 0-0-0, even, in three games against the Caps this season and 11-11-22, even, in 38 career games against Washington.

Washington: Lars Eller

It has been a difficult season for Lars Eller. He has missed 11 games to injury and another to attend to a family matter.  And on the ice, his season divides into two different sets of games.  Over his first 19 games this season, Eller was 5-7-12, and the Caps were 8-2-1 in the games in which he had at least one point.  He won 52.9 percent of his faceoffs and had a personal on-ice shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 51.5 percent.  He averaged almost a minute of power play ice time per game (0:59) and 2:19 in penalty killing ice time.  He shot 15.6 percent on 32 shots. 

Since then, though, Eller is 0-2-2, minus-4, in nine games, over which the Caps are just 5-4-0.  He won only 48.3 percent of his faceoffs, although his personal on-ice shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 is slightly higher (51.7 percent).  His power play ice time was shaved almost in half (0:34), and his penalty killing ice time per game also dropped (1:37).  His on-ice goal differential at 5-on-5 is underwater (minus-4).

Eller is perhaps the most versatile forward on the roster.  A the top of his game, he is effective in all three zones, and he can be slotted in any of the top three center positions.  Getting him back on his game as a player who complements every strength the Caps can bring to the ice, will be essential to dig themselves out of their recent doldrums.  Eller is 0-2-, even, in five games against the Sabres this season and 4-2-6, minus-5, in 19 career games against Buffalo.

In the end…

When one thinks of a “statement” game, one usually thinks of a contest against a formidable opponent that can be used as a benchmark to be used to gauge a team’s strength.  But this might be a “statement” game for the Caps, won in which they can’t win, in a matter of speaking.  Win the game, and it’s “but it was Buffalo,” a team long departed from postseason competition for this season.  Lose, though, and it spells trouble.  It is one thing to go 2-3-0 on the road, even for a team playing well.  Not good, but not unusual or unexpected.  Losing to Buffalo, even on the road, could be interpreted fairly as the Caps having underlying problems that no deadline deal will fix.  This is not a “must win” game for the Caps, who are in no significant jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  It is, however, a “better win” game.  The Caps had better win, or Capitals Nation will be very uneasy about this teams’ prospects.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 1